Podcasts about rmb

Fred Neumann welcomes Head of Asian FX Research Joey Chew to the podcast to discuss the impact of the energy squeeze on the JPY, what's keeping the RMB on the up and how the KRW has lost steam despite a Korean economy on fire.Click here for appropriate Disclosures, including analyst certifications, and Disclaimers that must be viewed with this podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/cQr2FpFStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research, just search for #HSBCResearch on LinkedIn or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research

Ek het in die vorige episode vertel dat ABSA en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se aankopebestuurdersindeks het in Mei-maand met 1,8 punte verswak, maar is steeds net-net in uitbreidende terrein. Intussen is RMB en die Buro sesakevertroue-indeks vir die tweede kwartaal bekend gemaak en dit is ongelukkig ʼn ander storie.

RMB is a leading African Corporate and Investment Bank, with a strong presence across the continent and key international markets. By combining deep local insight with global expertise, RMB supports clients across sectors, helping them navigate complexity, manage risk and unlock opportunity. With teams on the ground in Africa and beyond, RMB connects markets, capital and ideas to drive sustainable growth. RMB – A division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised FSP and Credit Provider. Presenter John Maytham is an actor and author-turned-talk radio veteran and seasoned journalist. His show serves a round-up of local and international news coupled with the latest in business, sport, traffic and weather. The host’s eclectic interests mean the program often surprises the audience with intriguing book reviews and inspiring interviews profiling artists. A daily highlight is Rapid Fire, just after 5:30pm. CapeTalk fans call in, to stump the presenter with their general knowledge questions. Another firm favourite is the humorous Thursday crossing with award-winning journalist Rebecca Davis, called “Plan B”. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Afternoon Drive with John Maytham Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 15:00 and 18:00 (SA Time) to Afternoon Drive with John Maytham broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/BSFy4Cn or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/n8nWt4x Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media: CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

RMB is a leading African Corporate and Investment Bank, with a strong presence across the continent and key international markets. By combining deep local insight with global expertise, RMB supports clients across sectors, helping them navigate complexity, manage risk and unlock opportunity. With teams on the ground in Africa and beyond, RMB connects markets, capital and ideas to drive sustainable growth. RMB – A division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised FSP and Credit Provider Presenter John Maytham is an actor and author-turned-talk radio veteran and seasoned journalist. His show serves a round-up of local and international news coupled with the latest in business, sport, traffic and weather. The host’s eclectic interests mean the program often surprises the audience with intriguing book reviews and inspiring interviews profiling artists. A daily highlight is Rapid Fire, just after 5:30pm. CapeTalk fans call in, to stump the presenter with their general knowledge questions. Another firm favourite is the humorous Thursday crossing with award-winning journalist Rebecca Davis, called “Plan B”. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Afternoon Drive with John Maytham Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 15:00 and 18:00 (SA Time) to Afternoon Drive with John Maytham broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/BSFy4Cn or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/n8nWt4x Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media: CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gugs Mhlungu speaks with Alison Badenhorst, Head of Marketing at RMB, about this year’s edition of the RMB art fair, exploring the theme, featured artists, collaborations, and what visitors and listeners can look forward to experiencing at the event. Gugs Mhlungu gets you ready for the weekend each Saturday and Sunday morning on 702. She is your weekend wake-up companion, with all you need to know for your weekend. The topics Gugs covers range from lifestyle, family, health, and fitness to books, motoring, cooking, culture, and what is happening on the weekend in 702land. Thank you for listening to a podcast from 702 Weekend Breakfast with Gugs Mhlungu. Listen live on Primedia+ on Saturdays and Sundays from 06:00 and 10:00 (SA Time) to Weekend Breakfast with Gugs Mhlungu broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/u3Sf7Zy or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/BIXS7AL Subscribe to the 702 daily and weekly newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jianggan Li, Founder of Momentum Works, joins Jeremy Au to unpack the Trump Xi Beijing summit, the first US presidential visit to China since 2017. They decode the optics of Zhongnanhai Garden and the Temple of Heaven, Xi Jinping's Thucydides Trap reference, the 200 plane Boeing deal, and why the absence of major deliverables is itself a strategic win. The conversation dives deep into the AI chip war, why NVIDIA's market share in China collapsed from 95% to under 10%, how the US export ban accelerated Chinese semiconductor self-reliance, and DeepSeek's reported 50 billion RMB funding round with the founder personally contributing 20 billion. They examine why Jensen Huang was added to Trump's delegation last minute, Elon Musk's unique position with Tesla in China, how Chinese state subsidies flow through local governments, and why founders like the Manus team made costly domicile mistakes. For Southeast Asia founders, VCs, and operators in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia, this episode reveals why both superpowers settled into managed competition rather than decisive split, and what it means for global supply chains, AI models, and capital flows in 2026. Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/trump-xi-summit Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at https://www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter X : https://x.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts 00:00 Introduction 01:23 Why the Trump Xi summit was a strategic win 03:25 Key players and how China renamed Rubio 06:26 Xi's Thucydides Trap and the Athens Sparta lesson 09:11 Chinese self-media versus official narratives 12:10 Zhongnanhai Garden and Temple of Heaven optics 15:15 El Niño, food security and global risk 16:36 Boeing deal, Elon Musk and Tesla in China 19:04 Jensen Huang added last minute to the delegation 21:16 Why Chinese founders still domicile in Singapore 23:08 DeepSeek's 50 billion RMB funding anomaly 24:00 NVIDIA's China collapse and the backfired chip ban 26:32 DeepSeek and ByteDance: founder driven AI 29:34 How Chinese state subsidies actually work 32:17 DeepSeek's cost efficiency strategy 33:04 Future outlook: Xi's US visit and Taiwan

RMB is a leading African Corporate and Investment Bank, with a strong presence across the continent and key international markets. By combining deep local insight with global expertise, RMB supports clients across sectors, helping them navigate complexity, manage risk and unlock opportunity. With teams on the ground in Africa and beyond, RMB connects markets, capital and ideas to drive sustainable growth. RMB – A division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised FSP and Credit Provider. Presenter John Maytham is an actor and author-turned-talk radio veteran and seasoned journalist. His show serves a round-up of local and international news coupled with the latest in business, sport, traffic and weather. The host’s eclectic interests mean the program often surprises the audience with intriguing book reviews and inspiring interviews profiling artists. A daily highlight is Rapid Fire, just after 5:30pm. CapeTalk fans call in, to stump the presenter with their general knowledge questions. Another firm favourite is the humorous Thursday crossing with award-winning journalist Rebecca Davis, called “Plan B”. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Afternoon Drive with John Maytham Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 15:00 and 18:00 (SA Time) to Afternoon Drive with John Maytham broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/BSFy4Cn or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/n8nWt4x Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media: CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ray White speaks to Nana Phiri, Head of Corporate Client Coverage at Rand Merchant Bank, about the RMB Talent Unlocked programme, an initiative focused on helping emerging artists develop both creatively and professionally. Through mentorship, industry exposure, and skills development, the programme aims to equip young creatives with the business knowledge, confidence, and support needed to build sustainable careers in South Africa’s evolving creative industry. 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa is broadcast on 702, a Johannesburg based talk radio station. Bongani makes sense of the news, interviews the key newsmakers of the day, and holds those in power to account on your behalf. The team bring you all you need to know to start your day Thank you for listening to a podcast from 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 06:00 and 09:00 (SA Time) to Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa broadcast on 702: https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/36edSLV or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/zEcM35T Subscribe to the 702 Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio7See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

May is Africa Month, and Season 5 of RMB Africa Focus is here. This season, you’ll hear on-the-ground perspectives from RMB’s experts across the continent. For many years, the narrative of African energy has been dominated by the established giants of West and North Africa. The attention is now turning to Namibia, where major offshore oil finds, green hydrogen ambitions, and renewed mining are reshaping the country's prospects. Lester Kiewit speaks to award-winning journalist Crystal Orderson. Good Morning Cape Town with Lester Kiewit is a podcast of the CapeTalk breakfast show. This programme is your authentic Cape Town wake-up call. Good Morning Cape Town with Lester Kiewit is informative, enlightening and accessible. The team’s ability to spot & share relevant and unusual stories make the programme inclusive and thought-provoking. Don’t miss the popular World View feature at 7:45am daily. Listen out for #LesterInYourLounge which is an outside broadcast – from the home of a listener in a different part of Cape Town - on the first Wednesday of every month. This show introduces you to interesting Capetonians as well as their favourite communities, habits, local personalities and neighbourhood news. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Good Morning Cape Town with Lester Kiewit. Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays between 06:00 and 09:00 (SA Time) to Good Morning CapeTalk with Lester Kiewit broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/xGkqLbT or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/f9Eeb7i Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalkSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don't you hate it when you have millions of RMB (which you claim you won legally gambling in Macau), but don't have a way of discreetly "converting" that money into squeaky clean assets, seeing as how you're a high-level official in your home county, and your constituents kind of frown on that kind of thing? Yeah, so do we. And we wrote this podcast about it. Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/1974

A currency becomes “internationalized” when it is widely used beyond its home economy for trade, financial transactions, and as a store of value. Achieving that status can lower transaction costs and exchange rate risks, while also enhancing the issuing country's geopolitical influence. Today, the global financial system remains overwhelmingly dollar-centric, with China's renminbi playing a comparatively modest role. Yet over the past decade, Beijing has taken steps to expand its global use, expanding offshore renminbi markets, establishing bilateral swap lines, and developing alternative payment infrastructure.  To help us unpack where China's renminbi internationalization efforts stand today, we are joined by Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Zoe's research centers on international political economy and global financial markets, with a focus on China and East Asia, as well as the Middle East. She is the author of Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System? and Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Global Ambitions.   Timestamps:  [00:00] Introduction  [01:54] Strategic Motivations for Beijing  [04:55] Progress Report on RMB Internationalization  [08:16] Main Mechanisms Used to Promote the RMB  [11:08] RMB in the Belt and Road Initiative  [13:46] Using Clean Energy Supply Chains to Promote RMB in Key Commodities  [15:57] RMB as a Reserve Currency?  [21:23] Xi's Fourth Term Goals with the RMB  [27:26] How Global Conflicts Impact RMB Internationalization 

Bongani Bingwa speaks to Crystal Orderson, award-winning journalist and host of RMB Africa Focus, about the return of the podcast series for its fifth season. They discuss the key conversations shaping Africa’s economic future, from trade and infrastructure to investment opportunities and innovation, while unpacking how the continent is positioning itself in a rapidly changing global economy. 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa is broadcast on 702, a Johannesburg based talk radio station. Bongani makes sense of the news, interviews the key newsmakers of the day, and holds those in power to account on your behalf. The team bring you all you need to know to start your day Thank you for listening to a podcast from 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 06:00 and 09:00 (SA Time) to Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa broadcast on 702: https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/36edSLV or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/zEcM35T Subscribe to the 702 Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio7See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Africa’s economic story continues to evolve, with new industries taking shape, shifting trade alliances, emerging energy opportunities and a continent positioning itself more deliberately within a fast-changing global economy. That was the focus on Good Morning Cape Town as RMB Africa Focus returned for its 5th season. The series, hosted by award-winning journalist Crystal Orderson, explores the forces shaping Africa’s next era of growth, from South Africa’s regional influence and Nigeria’s recovery trajectory, to Namibia’s energy potential, Botswana’s diversification drive, and the changing dynamics between Africa and China. Drawing on RMB’s continental footprint, the season brings together on-the-ground insights and expert analysis from Rand Merchant Bank to better understand how African markets are adapting and competing. Speaking to Lester Kiewit, the discussion centred on what sets this season apart, including a deliberate shift from talking about Africa to amplifying voices and perspectives from within the continent itself, and why RMB’s presence across multiple African markets positions it as a key voice in the conversation on future growth. Catch the first instalment of RMB Africa Focus this Thursday on Good Morning Cape Town with Lester Kiewit. The full video series will roll out weekly on Primedia+. Good Morning Cape Town with Lester Kiewit is a podcast of the CapeTalk breakfast show. This programme is your authentic Cape Town wake-up call. Good Morning Cape Town with Lester Kiewit is informative, enlightening and accessible. The team’s ability to spot & share relevant and unusual stories make the programme inclusive and thought-provoking. Don’t miss the popular World View feature at 7:45am daily. Listen out for #LesterInYourLounge which is an outside broadcast – from the home of a listener in a different part of Cape Town - on the first Wednesday of every month. This show introduces you to interesting Capetonians as well as their favourite communities, habits, local personalities and neighbourhood news. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Good Morning Cape Town with Lester Kiewit. Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays between 06:00 and 09:00 (SA Time) to Good Morning CapeTalk with Lester Kiewit broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/xGkqLbT or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/f9Eeb7i Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalkSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The renminbi is starting to gain ground in the dollar-dominated global commodity trade, as recent deals highlighted the Chinese currency's expanding role in offering a diversified option for pricing and settlement, economists and executives said.经济学家和企业高管表示，人民币开始在美元主导的全球大宗商品贸易中崭露头角。近期的多笔交易凸显出，人民币在定价和结算方面为全球提供了多元化选择，其作用正不断扩大。Breakthroughs in RMB-denominated commodity transactions, regarded as one of the most difficult frontiers for the RMB's global use, may signal a faster phase of the currency's internationalization, as demand rises for alternatives to the US dollar and China's role in global trade grows, they added.他们补充说，以人民币计价的大宗商品交易一直被认为是人民币国际化最艰难的领域之一，如今取得的突破，可能预示着人民币国际化将进入更快发展阶段。这背后的原因，是全球对美元替代选项的需求上升，以及中国在全球贸易中的地位日益重要。The RMB ranked the fifth in global payments with a share of 3.1 percent in March, up from a sixth ranking in February, as calculated by global financial messaging services provider Swift.据环球银行金融电信协会（Swift）统计，今年3月，人民币在全球支付中的份额为3.1%，排名从2月的第六位升至第五位。The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS — the primary platform for cross-border yuan clearing and settlement — recently recorded a single-day transaction volume of 1.22 trillion yuan ($179 billion), a record high, according to Shanghai Securities News.据《上海证券报》报道，人民币跨境清算结算的主要平台——人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）近期单日交易量创下1.22万亿元人民币的历史新高。Meanwhile, Reuters reported last month that Indian refiners were settling payments for specific oil cargoes purchased under a US sanctions waiver using the Chinese yuan, while mining giant BHP Group has reportedly adopted a Chinese pricing benchmark in its iron ore trade with China, signaling a broader acceptance of RMB settlement and pricing in commodity markets.与此同时，路透社上月报道称，印度炼油商已开始使用人民币结算部分在美国制裁豁免下购买的石油货物。据报道，矿业巨头必和必拓集团也在与中国的铁矿石贸易中采用了中国的定价基准。这些动向都表明，人民币结算和计价在大宗商品市场正获得更广泛接受。Zhang Bin, a national political adviser and a nonresident senior research fellow at the China Finance 40 Forum, said these developments suggest that the RMB is increasingly providing global trading partners with a more diversified currency option for commodity trade.全国政协委员、中国金融四十人论坛非驻会高级研究员张斌表示，这些进展表明，人民币正日益为全球贸易伙伴在大宗商品贸易中提供更多元化的货币选择。"The dollar has long served as a dominant currency for pricing, settlement and investment. However, intensified geopolitical tensions and changes in global economic governance have led some countries to reconsider the assumption that the dollar is reliable," Zhang said. "As countries seek to add an extra layer of safeguard in investment and business operations, the yuan is a particularly promising option, given China's significant and expanding role in global trade and investment.""美元长期以来一直是定价、结算和投资的主导货币。然而，加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和全球经济治理的变化，让一些国家开始重新审视'美元是可靠的'这一假设。"张斌说，"随着各国寻求为投资和商业运营多添一重保障，鉴于中国在全球贸易和投资中的重要且日益扩大的角色，人民币是一个特别有前景的选项。"Huang Yiping, dean of Peking University's National School of Development, highlighted the potential of the RMB in playing a bigger role in commodity pricing, as China is one of the world's largest importers of commodities and a leading exporter of manufactured goods.北京大学国家发展研究院院长黄益平强调了人民币在大宗商品定价中发挥更大作用的潜力，因为中国既是世界最大的大宗商品进口国之一，也是主要的制成品出口国。"Promoting the use of the RMB to price more of our economic activities is both possible and an indispensable step of RMB internationalization," Huang said.黄益平说："推动更多经济活动用人民币定价，既具可能性，也是人民币国际化不可或缺的一步。"China launched yuan-denominated crude oil futures trading in Shanghai in 2018, an early step toward expanding the RMB's role in global commodity pricing. In recent years, countries like Russia have increasingly used the Chinese currency in oil trade with China.2018年，中国在上海启动了人民币计价的原油期货交易，这是扩大人民币在全球大宗商品定价中作用的早期一步。近年来，俄罗斯等国在与中国的石油贸易中越来越多地使用人民币。"The fundamental conditions for the formation of a 'petroyuan' cycle — in which oil is increasingly priced, settled and reinvested in RMB assets — are gradually taking shape after China has become the world's largest crude oil importer," said Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张明表示："随着中国成为全球最大的原油进口国，形成'石油人民币'循环——即石油的定价、结算和再投资均越来越多地使用人民币资产——的基础条件正在逐步具备。"However, analysts cautioned that how far the Chinese currency's role in commodity trade can evolve may ultimately depend on the depth of China's financial reforms and opening-up, the country's long-term economic strength, and the resilience of the US dollar's dominance.不过，分析人士也提醒，人民币在大宗商品贸易中的作用能走多远，最终可能取决于中国金融改革开放的深度、中国经济的长期实力，以及美元主导地位的韧性。"Part of the recent increase in RMB usage in commodity trade has been driven by short-term geopolitical factors, and the longer-term trajectory still needs to be observed," said Shao Yu, chief economist at the innovation center of Fudan University's School of Management.复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家邵宇表示："近期人民币在大宗商品贸易中使用量的增加，部分是受短期地缘政治因素驱动，长期趋势仍需观察。"Wu Xiaoqiu, former vice-president of Renmin University of China, said the key still lies in deepening market-oriented reforms to enable freer trade of the currency if a petroyuan system is to be established.中国人民大学原副校长吴晓求则表示，若要建立石油人民币体系，关键仍在于深化市场化改革，实现货币的更自由交易。Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said China has worked to enhance institutional arrangements and financial infrastructure to support broader cross-border RMB usage to offer more diversified currency choices for all entities.中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，中国已致力于完善制度安排和金融基础设施，以支持更广泛的跨境人民币使用，为所有主体提供更多元化的货币选择。The yuan's rising role in commodity trade is part of a broader expansion of the currency's international use, with a Deutsche Bank report saying that the process of RMB internationalization is likely to accelerate.人民币在大宗商品贸易中角色的提升，是其国际使用范围更广泛扩展的一部分。德意志银行的一份报告称，人民币国际化的进程可能会加速。Renminbi assets are becoming increasingly attractive, underpinned by China's strong growth prospects and the rapid development of future-oriented industries, said Stefan Hoops, CEO of DWS — Deutsche Bank's asset management arm.德意志银行资产管理分支DWS的首席执行官斯蒂凡·霍普斯表示，在中国强劲的增长前景和未来产业的快速发展支撑下，人民币资产正变得越发具有吸引力。Hoops pointed to a structural shift in trade invoicing: Whereas the vast majority of Chinese exporter invoices were denominated in US dollars five years ago, a growing share are now denominated in RMB.霍普斯指出了贸易计价方面的结构性转变：五年前，中国出口商的发票绝大多数以美元计价，而现在，以人民币计价的占比正在增长。pricing and settlement /ˈpraɪsɪŋ ænd ˈsetlmənt/定价和结算commodity transaction /kəˈmɒdəti trænˈzækʃən/大宗商品交易sanctions waiver /ˈsæŋkʃənz ˈweɪvər/制裁豁免underpin /ˌʌndərˈpɪn/支撑；巩固trade invoicing /treɪd ˈɪnvɔɪsɪŋ/贸易计价；贸易开票

The nationwide rollout of China's departure tax refund service, which smoothly reached its one-year mark this month, has effectively stimulated inbound travel and increased consumption vitality, experts said.专家表示，中国离境退税全国性推广本月初平稳迎来实施一周年，有效刺激了入境旅游，激发了消费活力。The policy governing the service aims to further enhance the convenience of departure tax refunds for overseas visitors and optimize their shopping experience. Travelers purchasing tax-refundable items at designated stores across the country can receive a spot refund in renminbi upon signing an agreement and processing a credit card preauthorization.该政策旨在进一步提升境外旅客离境退税的便利性，优化其购物体验。在全国各地指定商店购买可退税商品的旅客，在签署协议并办理信用卡预授权后，即可现场领取人民币退税款。China's tax authorities and relevant government organs have actively encouraged eligible stores to offer this "buy and get a refund" service, with their total number currently exceeding 8,000, surging more than 100 percent since the policy was adopted in April last year.中国税务部门及相关政府机构积极鼓励符合条件的商店提供“买即退”服务。自去年4月该政策实施以来，提供该项服务的商店总数已超过8000家，增幅超过100%。As the service continues to expand, more overseas visitors are receiving spot tax refunds on a wider range of goods, further spurring consumption.随着该服务的持续扩展，越来越多的境外旅客在更广泛的商品品类上享受到了现场退税，进一步刺激了消费。According to data from the State Taxation Administration, the number of individuals processing refunds nationwide over the past year increased by 12.96 times. Both the tax-refundable sales volume and the total refund amount increased by 9.35 times over the past year, marking a rapid growth in scale.根据国家税务总局的数据，过去一年全国办理退税的人数增长了12.96倍。退税销售额和退税总额均增长了9.35倍，呈现出规模化快速增长趋势。Fan Yong, dean of the Central University of Finance and Economics' School of Public Finance and Taxation, said the promotion and implementation of the service have effectively stimulated inbound consumption vitality.中央财经大学财政税务学院院长樊勇表示，该项服务的推广落地有效激发了入境消费活力。"It stands as an important achievement in China's continuous effort to optimize its business environment, and has promoted local brands on the international stage," Fan added.他补充道：“这是我国持续优化国际化营商环境的重要成果，亦有力促进了本土品牌走向国际舞台。”To further enhance the business environment, local tax authorities have actively explored ways to upgrade the service over the past year.为持续优化营商环境，过去一年，各地税务部门积极探索服务升级路径。For instance, Beijing has introduced a citywide processing system, allowing inbound travelers to shop at any tax refund store in the Chinese capital and process their refunds at a centralized location in the city.例如，北京推出了全城通办系统，允许入境旅客在首都的任何一家退税商店购物，并在市内的集中退付点办理退税手续。Sichuan province has launched a refund system based on a QR code, enabling overseas visitors to quickly complete the process and receive instant refunds by simply uploading photos of their application forms, valid identification documents and shopping invoices.四川省推出基于二维码的退税系统，境外旅客只需上传退税申请单、有效身份证件和购物发票的照片，即可快速完成退税手续，实时收到退税款。Shenzhen in Guangdong province has expanded its diversified electronic refund system by launching a real-time transfer service to WeChat Pay HK wallets for visitors from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.广东省深圳市通过推出微信香港钱包实时到账服务，扩展了其多元化的电子退税体系，方便香港特别行政区旅客办理退税。It has also introduced a "digital RMB hard wallet" refund method, which involves a prepaid card that allows travelers to receive and use their refund instantly without needing a bank account or internet connection.该市还推出了“数字人民币钱包”退税方式，即一种预付卡，旅客无需银行账户或网络连接即可实时接收和使用退税款。Gary Cai, a partner at professional services firm KPMG and head of KPMG China Economic Research Institute, said that optimizing departure tax refunds and the payment environment lowers transaction costs for overseas visitors.毕马威中国合伙人、毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟表示，优化离境退税和支付环境降低了境外旅客的交易成本。"This turns potential desire into real consumption," he said, adding that inbound consumption effectively supplements domestic demand and helps optimize the nation's overall trade structure.他说：“这将潜在消费意愿转化为真实消费。”他补充说，入境消费有效补充了内需，有助于优化国家的整体贸易结构。Experts also pointed to untapped consumption potential.专家还指出，目前的入境消费潜力仍处于尚待开发阶段。While China's inbound consumption in 2025 recovered to the pre-pandemic peak level, accounting for 0.7 percent of the nation's GDP, there remains a gap compared with major global tourist destinations, Cai said.蔡伟说，虽然2025年中国入境消费恢复到了疫情前的峰值水平，占GDP的0.7%，但与全球主要旅游目的地相比仍存在差距。"Our focus should shift from scale recovery to quality improvement and structural optimization," he said.“我们的重点应从规模恢复转向质量提升和结构优化，”他说。To further unleash this potential, Cai suggested implementing higher tax refund rates for premium domestic brands and green, smart products.为进一步释放这一潜力，蔡伟建议，对优质国产品牌及绿色智能产品实行更高的退税率。Authorities said they will continue to expand service scenarios and provide stronger support for consumption and high-level opening-up.有关部门表示，将持续拓展服务场景，为促进消费和高水平对外开放提供更有力支撑。

ChinesePod's back with another lesson for all you gamers out there, with a Chinese tilt. We'll cover computer games and console games, plus how to (talk about) hacking your system so you can use all those 7 RMB pirated discs. Get your game on with today's upper-intermediate lesson. Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/1951

Bongani Bingwa speaks with Michael Edwards, Sponsorships Marketing Lead at RMB Latitudes Art Fair, about the return of the Art Fair to Johannesburg from 22 to 24 May. Set against the backdrop of Shepstone Gardens, the event aims to offer a more immersive and accessible experience with a distinctly African perspective. 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa is broadcast on 702, a Johannesburg based talk radio station. Bongani makes sense of the news, interviews the key newsmakers of the day, and holds those in power to account on your behalf. The team bring you all you need to know to start your day Thank you for listening to a podcast from 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 06:00 and 09:00 (SA Time) to Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa broadcast on 702: https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/36edSLV or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/zEcM35T Subscribe to the 702 Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio7See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

从麦当劳到多重兼职：我的职涯转折点After I started earning my own money, I truly understood how hard it was to make a living.I worked 20 hours a week at McDonald's—even more time than I spent in school—yet I could only earn 1,440 NT dollars (≈ US$ 45.6 / ≈ ¥315) a week. Living in a big city like Taipei was really not easy.开始自己赚钱后，我才真正体会到赚钱的辛苦。每周在麦当劳工作 20 小时，甚至比在学校上课的时间还多，却只能赚 1440 元 (≈ 美金 45.6 / 人民币 315)，在台北这样的大城市生活，实在不容易。At that time, I had a boyfriend in Taipei.I liked dressing up nicely for our dates—buying clothes and cosmetics—to show my best self.However, he was serving in the military and insisted on splitting the bill every time, which made me really upset.Several times at the end of the month, I was completely broke. I had no choice but to call my parents and ask them to transfer 2,000 NT dollars (≈ US$63 / ≈ RMB ¥438)so I could survive a little longer.当时，我有一个在台北的男朋友。我喜欢打扮得漂漂亮亮去约会，买衣服、化妆品，想要展现自己最好的一面。然而，他正在当兵，每次约会都坚持 AA 制，让我气得不行。有好几次，月底实在捉襟见肘，我只能硬着头皮打电话向家里求救，请爸妈汇 2000 元（约美金 63 元／人民币 438 元），才能暂时喘口气。During this financially difficult period, my “salary destiny” at McDonald's took an unexpected turn.Looking back now, it really feels unbelievable.就在这段经济拮据的时期，我的“薪资命运”在麦当劳迎来了转变。现在回想起来，真的有点不可思议！Promotion to Lobby Hostess: My First Career Advancement升职为接待员：人生的第一个晋升After working at McDonald's for almost a year, I was surprisingly promoted.I finally got the position I had dreamed of—McDonald's lobby hostess.My hourly wage increased from 72 NT dollars (≈ US$2.28 / ≈ ¥15.8) to 85 NT dollars (≈ US$2.69 / ≈ ¥18.6), and I could even freely choose staff meals.在麦当劳工作快满一年时，我竟然升职了！我拿到了梦寐以求的“麦当劳接待员”职位，时薪从 72 元(≈ 美金 2.28 / 人民币 15.8) 直接调升到 85 元(≈ 美金 2.69 / 人民币 18.6)，还能随意点员工餐！When I was a regular crew member, I could only order basic set meals.But after becoming a hostess, I could finally order my favorites—spicy chicken burgers and chicken nuggets.We usually called lobby hostesses “Aunties.” Their job was to wear a red vest and a slim skirt, walk around the floor, refill coffee for customers, host children's birthday parties, and sometimes help at the cashier.For me, it was not just a job—it was a sense of identity upgrade.从前当服务员时，我只能点普通套餐；但当上接待员后，我终于能点自己最爱的劲辣鸡腿堡和鸡块！我们都习惯称接待员为“阿姨”，工作内容包括穿着红色背心与窄裙巡视楼层、帮客人续杯咖啡、主持儿童生日派对，有时也协助收银。这对当时的我来说，不仅是一份工作，更是一种身份的提升。However, not long after my promotion, I faced the first major challenge of my career—the outbreak of SARS.然而，升职没多久，我就遇到了职场生涯的第一个重大挑战——SARS 来袭！Trying Entrepreneurship During SARS: Turning Crisis into OpportunitySARS 期间的创业尝试：危机变转机After the SARS outbreak, Taipei gradually became a high-risk area, and the restaurant business was heavily affected.I was assigned to stand at the entrance to take customers' temperatures.As the weather got hotter, I stood there all day, sweating nonstop. It was boring, and I felt like a “thermometer robot.”SARS 疫情爆发后，台北逐渐进入高风险区，餐厅业务大受影响。我被安排站在门口为顾客量体温。天气渐渐变热，我整天站在大门口汗流浃背，不仅无聊，还觉得自己像个“温度计机器人”。With no children's parties to host and fewer customers coming in, I decided to do something different.I started setting up a small stall at the entrance, selling handmade crafts I made myself—plaster McDonald's fries models, painted artworks, and small toys.Although it was only a small experiment, it taught me an important lesson: when the environment is bad, you must create opportunities proactively.没有儿童派对可主持，餐厅人流也减少了，我决定做点不一样的事。我开始利用门口空间摆摊，贩售自己制作的手工艺品——麦当劳薯条石膏模型、彩绘作品和小玩具。虽然只是小小的尝试，却让我学到一件事：当大环境不景气时，更要主动创造机会！This proactive attitude unexpectedly led me to discover a much higher-paying part-time job.而这样的主动精神，也让我无意间发现了更高薪的兼职机会。Children's English Cram School: Discovering a Fourfold Salary儿童美语补习班：发现薪资 4 倍的机会！One day, while chatting with a younger schoolmate at the cashier, she told me she had started working as a teacher at a children's English cram school.I casually asked, “How much is the hourly pay?”“320 NT dollars,” she replied calmly.I was completely shocked.That was four times my current salary.某天，我在收银台和一位学妹聊天，她也是辅大学生，最近开始在儿童美语补习班教书。我随口问了一句：“那里的时薪是多少？”“320 元，”她轻描淡写地回答。我顿时惊呆了——这是我当时薪水的 4 倍！Thinking about how I hadn't practiced English properly for a long time due to my busy life, a thought sparked in my mind: maybe I could try it too.A few days later, I gathered my courage and applied to an English cram school near my campus.The interview went surprisingly well. After a few simple English tests, I was accepted.That was how I started my journey as a part-time English teacher.想到自己因为生活忙碌，已经很久没有好好练习英语，我心中燃起了一个念头：我也可以试试看！几天后，我鼓起勇气到学校附近的美语补习班应征。面试过程出乎意料地顺利，几个简单的英语口试后，我竟然录取了。就这样，我开启了兼职英语老师的人生。The Joy of Doubled Income: Falling in Love with Teaching收入翻倍的成就感，让我爱上了教学As my teaching hours increased, I received my first paycheck of over 20,000 NT dollars (≈ US$633 / ≈ ¥4,380)..When I looked at my pay slip, I felt an overwhelming sense of achievement—I felt capable and powerful.随着补习班工作时数增加，我第一次领到超过 2 万元 (≈ 美金 633 / 人民币 4,380) 的薪水。当我看着薪资条的那一刻，心里涌上一股巨大的成就感，觉得自己好棒、好强大。At that time, I was both a McDonald's lobby hostess and a children's English teacher.Little did I know that another opportunity was waiting for me at McDonald's—this time, from the financial industry.当时的我，同时身兼麦当劳接待员与儿童美语老师。没想到，在麦当劳工作时，另一个机缘正在等着我——而且，竟然来自金融业。A Chance Encounter During Floor Patrol: Entering the Insurance Industry楼层巡视的意外转弯：踏入保险业One day, while refilling coffee for customers, I met a woman named Qingxia.After chatting for a while, she asked me, “Have you ever considered savings insurance?”Although I knew nothing about financial planning, I bought a basic policy because I wanted to save money.After several meetings, she unexpectedly encouraged me to join her insurance team.有一天，我在楼层帮客人续杯咖啡时，遇到一位叫“青霞”的女顾客。聊了一会儿后，她问我：“你有考虑过储蓄险吗？”当时的我对理财一无所知，但因为想存钱，就买了一份最低保额的储蓄险。没想到，几次见面后，她竟然鼓励我加入她的保险团队！So at that time, besides being a Fu Jen University student, a McDonald's hostess, and an English teacher, I gained yet another identity—an insurance agent.My life became busy but fulfilling.From barely surviving on a low salary, I now held three part-time jobs with significantly increased income.Soon after, fate presented me with a decision I could not avoid—one that ultimately led me to let go of all other jobs and fully commit to the insurance industry.于是，当时的我，除了是辅大学生、麦当劳接待员、英语老师之外，又多了一个身份：保险业务员。那段日子忙碌却充实，从原本只能靠微薄薪水生活，到同时拥有三份兼职，收入大幅提升。然而，命运很快给了我一个无法逃避的选择——这个选择，让我最终决定放下其他工作，全力投入保险业。（To be continued…）（未完待续……）

Interview recorded - 27th of March, 2026On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of welcoming back David Woo. David is a top global macro strategist who challenges consensus, such as calling Trump's 2016 election, the post-Covid rebound, and major macro inflection points before they happened. He is also the founder of David Woo Unbound and co-author of the upcoming book “Merry-Go-Round Broke Down” a geopolitical novel.During our conversation we spoke about the current conflict in the middle east, the first proxy war between the US & China, whether we could see boots on the ground, what this means for the economy and markets around the globe and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:44 - Current situation in the Middle East?3:14- Escalation to the gulf8:09 - Russia/Ukraine proxy war?10:57 - China's options12:54 - Trying to TACO14:39 - Energy & Desalination bombing?18:36 - Political capital?21:20 - America first to global agenda22:42 - How would China react?23:40 - China losing energy security25:25 - Impact on US economy and markets?30:07 - US Hegemony to continue32:04 - One message to takeaway?David Woo is the Founder/CEO of David Woo Unbound, a new global forum devoted to promoting fact-based debates about markets, politics and economics.Until 2021, David was the Head of Global Rates, Foreign Exchange, and Emerging Market Fixed Income Strategy & Economic Research at Bank of America, where he managed the top ranked global macro strategy team on Wall Street. Previously, David was the Head of Global Currency Strategy at Barclays Capital and the Head of Local Markets Strategy for Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at Citigroup.David is known on Wall Street for his bold and out-of-consensus calls that includes the RMB devaluation in 2015 and Trump's victory in 2016. He was also the first Wall Street analyst to initiate coverage on Bitcoin in 2013. Business Insider voted David as one of the 12 smartest people on Wall Street in 2016 and Bloomberg calls him one of the “most outspoken voice on Wall Street."David started his career at the International Monetary Fund in Washington D.C.. He received his Ph.D in Economics from Columbia University.David Woo - Book - https://www.amazon.com/Merry-Go-Round-Broke-Down-Novel-Globalization/dp/B0GCX8Y6KT/Website - https://www.davidwoounbound.com/YouTube - @DavidWooUnbound Twitter - https://twitter.com/DavidwoounboundWTFinance - Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng was in Kenya this week, where he oversaw the first shipment of agricultural products that will enter the Chinese market duty-free. There's a lot of excitement across the continent about China's removal of all import tariffs for goods from 53 African countries. But Yan Liang, an economics professor at Willamette University, argues it's not going to make much of a difference to reduce the swelling trade deficit that most African countries now have with China. Yan joins Eric to discuss a recent paper she wrote that explores China's evolving economic relationship with Africa and how the continent's lack of industrial capacity, among other factors, will keep the trade relationship between these two regions largely intact.

Earn up to a 4% yield on your physical gold or silver, paid in gold ounces: https://Monetary-Metals.com/CommodityEric Yeung believes that this war with Iran is presenting a major threat to the petrodollar system, as the country ramps up its oil-for-RMB transactions with China and America's Gulf allies are left to fend for themselves. Eric believes both gold and silver are set to bounce back with a vengeance and he outlines how this conflict in the Middle East is intertwined with precious metals markets and the fate of the global geopolitical order.Get Your 'Stack Silver Not Fiat' Shirt: https://commodity-culture-shop.fourthwall.com/products/stack-silver-not-fiat-t-shirtEric Yeung's Substack: https://kingkong9888.substack.comFollow Eric on X: https://x.com/KingKong9888Follow Jesse Day on X: https://x.com/jessebdayCommodity Culture on Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/CommodityCulture

In response to the US-Israeli war, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil chokepoint on Earth, causing energy prices to skyrocket. However, Tehran is allowing Chinese tankers through, and says other ships can pass if they agree to sell oil in China's currency, the renminbi (aka yuan). Iran is also targeting offices of major American corporations, and wants to force them out of the Middle East (West Asia), while trying to expel US military bases. Ben Norton explains how this war affects the petrodollar system, and the dominance of the dollar as the global reserve currency. VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2zBWcGahuc Topics 0:00 Iran war causes energy crisis 0:29 Oil price skyrockets 0:56 Fears of economic crisis 2:07 Strait of Hormuz 3:21 Iran permits Chinese oil tankers 4:17 Iran says: sell oil in RMB, not USD 4:43 Dollar dominance & petrodollar 6:28 Asymmetric warfare 6:59 US military bases in Middle East 7:47 Iran strikes CIA stations 8:46 Iran hits US refueling planes 9:10 US empire underestimated Iran 10:32 Iran targets US corporations 12:03 Economic warfare 13:07 (CLIP) Scott Bessent on sanctions 14:05 New leader Mojtaba Khamenei 15:21 Iran strategy spelled out 17:08 Tehran wants revenge 18:51 Yemen, Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab 22:16 US war on Yemen in 2025 23:23 Anti-colonial wars 24:16 Trump sends more US troops 25:21 Iran's Kharg Island 26:21 Global energy crisis 27:24 Trump wants military coalition 29:02 Iran allows Chinese ships 29:59 US dollar dominance 30:37 US current account deficit 31:20 Exorbitant privilege of dollar 32:19 Dedollarization 32:52 West seized Russia's reserves 33:49 Central banks buy gold 34:16 US Treasury securities 34:47 Oil sales in dollars 36:26 Trump threatened BRICS 37:16 Iran promotes dedollarization 37:42 China & Russia de-dollarize 38:33 India 39:34 UAE 40:18 Saudi Arabia 41:04 Iran & Indonesia join BRICS 42:14 Iran proposes BRICS currency 42:31 Divisions within BRICS 43:12 Struggle against imperialism 45:12 Outro

As the conflict in Iran continues to drive oil prices higher and unsettle global markets, investors are assessing the implications for Asia and China. Meanwhile in Beijing, the annual Two Sessions meetings have just concluded, outlining policy priorities and economic targets for the year ahead.In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss how geopolitical tensions are affecting Asian markets, their key takeaways from the Two Sessions, the outlook for Hong Kong versus A-shares, and the case for renminbi appreciation. Looking further ahead, they also examine the lessons from Japan's balance sheet recession framework for China.(00:00) - Can Asia and China markets weather the storm? (03:14) - Hong Kong markets vs A-shares (07:40) - Key takeaways from Two Sessions (11:19) - Is the RMB appreciation trend set to continue? (16:08) - Lessons from Japan's balance sheet recession framework for China

Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, joins Julia to break down the three prices that drive every investment decision — the dollar, the 10-year treasury, and oil — and why right now all three are flashing red. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, Louis explains why he sees oil heading toward $120 and why that number breaks the global economy. He makes the case that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead and should be replaced with 60% equities, 20% precious metals, and 20% energy. He reveals why the Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued asset on the planet, why China already won the trade war, and why the US is in greater danger of crushing its allies than itself. One of the most thought-provoking macro conversations you'll hear this year.Links: https://web.gavekal.com/https://x.com/gave_vincentTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:22 The 3 prices that drive everything: dollar, 10-year, oil 2:38 Oil went from $65 to $85 — but Louis fears $120-150 4:08 Why the oil futures curve isn't pricing in a prolonged crisis 5:06 Dollar bear market — why the rebound won't last 6:28 "If truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second" 6:53 The binary outcome on Iran — both scenarios are bad for bonds 7:51 Regime change = Berlin Wall moment — but real rates explode 9:44 "Tails I lose, heads I don't win" — the bond market trap 11:33 $100 oil and Trump's political predicament 13:41 Trump wanted lower energy — "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" 14:06 Why $100 oil is "right pocket, left pocket" for the US 15:58 The real victims: Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Japan 17:23 90% of Hormuz oil heads east — not to the US 18:39 Missing 15 million barrels: prices skyrocket or demand collapses 20:28 Why energy is the best hedge for your portfolio right now 21:50 The new portfolio: 60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy 22:07 The four quadrants framework explained 25:40 Why the 60/40 portfolio is officially dead 27:52 Gold is NOT an inflation hedge — what it actually is 28:37 Why central banks started buying gold after Russia asset seizure 30:08 Western retail has completely missed the gold bull market 31:32 The broken equation: US treasuries no longer equal commodities 32:59 The next shift — stockpiling physical commodities 33:15 "I'm bearish on the dollar and treasuries — but the US has pocket aces" 34:38 Four pillars: fundamentals, momentum, positioning, valuation 36:40 Where Louis sees opportunity: Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa 37:21 China for beginners — the biggest misconceptions 39:05 China's growth miracle — it wasn't central planning 42:06 The Hunger Games of capitalism 44:24 How China really views the Iran war — purely economic 46:46 The most underappreciated macro theme right now 48:19 "Stupidly, stupidly undervalued" — the renminbi slam dunk trade 50:41 Why China kept the RMB artificially low for 8 years 51:49 The weaponization of China's own savings52:35 "China went to the gym" — why it could stand up to Trump 54:18 Who won the trade war? 56:12 The one risk keeping Louis up at night 57:08 "$120 oil breaks stuff" — the number to watch

Stephen speaks to Keabetswe Mojapelo, RMB Macroeconomist, about the sharp rise in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, exploring why confidence has reached its highest level since 2015, how sector‑specific shifts are shaping the broader economic outlook, and what the balance of risks and opportunities means for growth in 2026. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 to 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure Analyst Qianlei Fan discusses how China's travel industry is shifting from a post-pandemic rebound to a multi-year expansion.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Qianlei Fan, Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong / China Transportation Analyst. Today, I'll share my thoughts on why travel is quickly emerging as one of [the] key drivers of China's economic rebalancing.It's Tuesday, March the 3rd, at 2pm in Hong Kong. I've just gotten back from my Lunar New Year trip to mainland China. With the longest Chinese New Year break in history, people were out roaming, exploring, laughing, and the whole country felt like it was buzzing with people on a mission to enjoy every minute. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, total domestic tourism spending recorded a robust 19 percent year-on-year growth during the holiday. In fact, China's tourism industry isn't just rebounding after the pandemic. It's entering a structurally stronger phase, supported by policy tailwinds, demographic shifts, and a clear pivot toward experience-driven consumption. By 2030, tourism revenue could reach RMB 12 trillion – equal to roughly USD $1.7 trillion – implying 11 percent annual growth from the mid-2020s. Over the next five years, cumulative domestic and inbound revenue may approach RMB 50 trillion, or USD $7.2 trillion. That scale makes travel more than a cyclical recovery – it's becoming a core pillar of China's consumption-led growth. We expect tourism's share of GDP to rise to about 6.7 percent by 2030, up from 4.8 percent in 2024.Domestic travel remains the backbone. People aren't just traveling again; they're traveling more than before. Policy is reinforcing demand. Extended public holidays, new school breaks, and event-driven tourism are boosting activity. In 2025 alone, around 3,000 large-scale performances attracted more than 43 million attendees. And spending reflects that shift. Domestic tourism spending reached RMB 6.3 trillion in 2025, about 11 percent above pre-COVID levels. Even with slightly lower spend per trip, more frequent travel is lifting overall revenue.International travel is emerging as a second growth engine. By 2030, inbound travel could represent 16 percent of total tourism revenue. In late 2025, inbound visitor growth in major cities was up about 30–50 percent year-over-year, supported by expanded visa-free access, which now accounts for the majority of foreign arrivals. These visitors often stay longer and spend more. Outbound travel is strengthening too. International air traffic grew 22 percent in 2025, far outpacing domestic growth, and now contributes a meaningful share of airline revenue. Demographics and technology are reinforcing the trend. Younger consumers prioritize travel, while older households – with substantial savings – are beginning to spend more as services improve. At the same time, smart hotels, virtual reality attractions, and data-driven operations are enhancing engagement and willingness to pay. This isn't just pent-up demand. It's policy, demographics, technology, and supply aligning at once. – with travel at the center of China's consumption story.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Markets welcomed South Africa's Budget, with RMB's Kgothatso Baloyi highlighting a narrowing deficit and an improving debt path. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana then sets out Treasury's “four pillars” growth story, with infrastructure and state capacity front and centre. The show closes in the US tech arena: Bloomberg unpacks Nvidia's outlook amid tight supply, and reports on Anthropic loosening a key safety stance as Pentagon pressure builds.

Today's episode is the third in a series of three that examine the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we're speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. The report is titled, “If China Attacks Taiwan” and it is posted on GMFUS.org.  Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for the Chinese economy.To recap, the study considered two scenarios that could take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalates into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military are killed, U.S. intervention eventually forces China to de-escalate.  In the second scenario, a conflict escalates into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces are degraded and eventually withdraw after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.Our guests today are Charlie Vest and Logan Wright, who co-authored the chapter on the implications for the Chinese economy of a failed operation against Taiwan. Logan is a partner at Rhodium Group and leads the firm's work on China's economy and its global impact. Charlie is an associate director at Rhodium Group, where he manages corporate research and advisory work on China.Timestamps:[00:00] Introduction[02:34] Key Takeaways: China's Ambitions vs. Economic Realities [05:41] The Escalation Dilemma in China's Decisionmaking[09:56] Immediate Disruptions to Trade and FDI[13:52] Gray-Zone Military Engagement and Political Pressures[16:48] Could Beijing Underestimate the Costs of US Intervention? [24:12] Policy Tools and Limitations for Economic Stabilization and Recovery[27:19] Long-Term Economic Effects[29:24] Impact of Social Instability

Stephen Grootes speaks to Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist and Head of Research at RMB about the landmark trade agreement between South Africa and China that grants South African exports duty-free access to the Chinese market, at a time of growing uncertainty around the future of AGOA. In other interviews, Luxity co‑founder Michael Zahariev unpacks Luxity's 2026 State of the Luxury Market Africa report’s findings, exploring how South Africa’s luxury market is maturing as consumers prioritise long‑term value, pre‑owned access and more considered expressions of status. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephen Grootes speaks to Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist and Head of Research at RMB about the landmark trade agreement between South Africa and China that grants South African exports duty-free access to the Chinese market, at a time of growing uncertainty around the future of AGOA. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with follow-up thoughts on the purges at the top of the PLA, including reactions to a New York Times piece on Xi's “paranoia,” answers that have yet to materialize, He Weidong suicide rumors, and various theories on what any of this might signal. From there: Keir Starmer's trip to Beijing, caution before drawing too many conclusions from the recent steps from Canada and the U.K., and a flurry of stories about Xi's ambitions for the RMB as a global reserve currency. At the end: Parsing the readouts from a surprise Trump-Xi call Wednesday, why Taiwan arms sales may have been at issue, the U.S. gets serious about critical minerals, Panama deals a blow to China, and Nvidia's H200 adventures head to the State Department.

We've made the case before, but it bears repeating: MMT is a politically neutral, descriptive lens explaining the operational realities of a sovereign fiat currency system where the availability of real resources, not money, are the constraint. And Marxism is an analytical framework for understanding class relations and production. The two are not inherently opposed. It's a mistake to dismiss MMT as capitalist apologetics.Steve's guest is Dr. Anthony Anastasi, an economist teaching at the Sino-British College, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology. They talk about Anthony's paper: Marxism and MMT: How Modern Monetary Theory Can Enrich the Debate Amongst Marxists.They dismantle the all-too-common Marxist critiques of MMT, which claim that the state can't control money's value, and that MMT lacks a theory of value. (However, the ubiquitous “taxpayer money” framing that feeds austerity myths, is not limited to Marxists.) The discussion reframes the state's monetary capacity as a tool for class struggle rather than a capitalist backstop.They look at the federal job guarantee with reference to Rosa Luxemburg's concept of non-reformist reform, ie, a reform that can weaken capitalist logic and build working-class consciousness and power.Anthony also brings an on-the-ground perspective, sharing observations from China's political economy, including local-vs-central financing, RMB-denominated debt, capital controls, and emerging debates that resemble MMT arguments even when not labeled as such.Dr. Anthony William Donald Anastasi is an economist and lecturer specializing in development economics and international political economy. He teaches at the Sino-British College, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, and holds a Ph.D. from East China Normal University. His research examines how state–business relations, industrial policy, monetary sovereignty, and income distribution shape economic growth, trade patterns, and political power, with a particular focus on China and East Asia. Alongside publishing in SSCI-ranked journals, he regularly writes for the popular press on the Chinese and U.S. economies and global trade.@_AWDA_ on X

In the second of their two-part roundtable, Seth Carpenter and Morgan Stanley's top economists break down the forces influencing growth across different regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jen Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. And we spent a lot of time talking about monetary policy around the world. Today, let's go back to them, talk about the real side of the economy. It's Friday, January 23rd at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Michael, let me start with you, back on the U.S. And when I think about the U.S. economy, we have to start by talking about the U.S. consumer. Walk us through what investors need to understand about consumer spending in the U.S. What's driving it, what's going to hold it up, and where are the risks? Michael Gapen: I think the primary thing to remember here is that the upper income consumer drives about 40 percent or more of total spending. So, there can be higher inflation that eats into real labor market income growth. There can be inflation dispersion, which hits lower income households more than upper income households. We can have tariffs that get applied to goods and lower- and middle-income households buy goods more than upper income households. But when asset markets continue to appreciate, when home prices hold on to their prior gains, sometimes that doesn't matter in the aggregate statistics because that upper income household keeps spending.I do think that's a lot of what happened in 2025. So, there is a K-shaped economy. I think one of the main risks about the U.S. is that its expansion is narrowly driven. We think that will broaden out in 2026. If we're right, that inflation comes down and we're past, kind of, the peak effect of tariffs, then we think that lower- and middle-income household can have a little more residual spending power. And you might get the consumer operating on two fronts, rather than one. Seth Carpenter: Another part of domestic spending that gets a lot of attention is business investment spending, CapEx spending. First would you agree with that statement that CapEx spending last year was characterized by AI CapEx spending? Second, should we feel confident that that underlying sort of momentum in CapEx spending should continue for this year? And then third, what's it going to take for there to be a broadening out, maybe like what you said about consumers, but a broadening out of investment spending so that it's not just the AI story that's driving CapEx. Michael Gapen: I do agree that the primary, almost exclusive story in 2025 for business spending was AI. So, when you look at residential and non-residential spending, unrelated to AI, that I think did feel the effects of policy uncertainty in a changing environment. what keeps kind of sustainability around business spending? Obviously, it's a multi-year investment story around AI. There's a level versus growth rate argument here where you can have a heck of a lot of CapEx spending. May not always show up in GDP because some of it is intermediate goods, some of it is imported. But that doesn't diminish, I think, the quality of the overall story. What gets business spending to broaden out, I do think is related to whether consumer spending broadens out. Most business spending kind of follows demand with a lag. So, AI is a different story, but there's a cyclical component to business spending. There could be a housing related component, if mortgage rates come down and stimulate at least a little more turnover in the housing market. So, if the recovery does broaden out, we see greater real income growth in low- and middle-income households. The labor market stabilizes. Maybe mortgage rates come down a little bit, then I think you could get carry through momentum to non-AI related business spending. That would look more like a cyclical upswing for the economy. May be a heavy lift, but that's what I think it would take to get there. Seth Carpenter: So, Jens, let me come to you. We talked yesterday about the ECB possibly easing more on disinflation. But when I think of disinflation, I think of a weak economy. And that's maybe not really the case. So, I guess the first question to you would you characterize euro area economic growth as strong, or a little bit more complicated? Jens Eisenschmidt: A little bit more complicated. And that's always the right answer for an economist – I think it depends. Well, it is strong in some quarters. And these quarters will change from where it has been in the past.So concretely, we think the German economy has most potential to catch up and actually accelerate, and that's due to fiscal stimulus mainly. While we have other quarters, the French and the Italian one, which will be below potential and so weak – each of them for their own reason. And then we have the Spanish economy, which performs exceptionally and is really strong, but it's only a small part of the euro area economy. If we had everything together, I think the outlook is an economy that's accelerating mildly and only towards the end of our projection horizon, which is [20]27. So, in say two years, hits growth rates that are above potential. Here we are really talking about quarterly increments above 0.3. So, we are currently between 0.1 and 0.2. So, you sort of get the picture of a mildly accelerating economy that goes from 0.15 to 0.035 say in the span of two years. Seth Carpenter: One of the key narratives in markets is about fiscal policy in Germany, potentially driving growth. I know in equity markets it's been a key investing theme. So how excited should people be about the possibility of fiscal policy in Germany driving a resilient European economy? Jens Eisenschmidt: Pretty excited, I would say, in a sense that the positioning of the German government for its economy is actually exceptional in terms of the amount of fiscal space that exists and that has been made available. It's just that, of course, the connection of that sort of abstract excitement that we economists have to what actually happens in markets is sometimes a little bit loose; in the sense that equity [markets would like to see everything coming online tomorrow, and that's going to be a more drawn-out process. So, to my point before, it will take some time. We do have implementation lags. We do have lags in say, for instance, on defense procurement. There is maybe not as much capacity in the economy to deliver into everything. But the direction of travel is clear and up. So, from that perspective, I have no doubts that the future is better for the German economy over the medium term for all the reasons mentioned, but it won't be immediate. And we have just seen in recent headlines, Germany is the most trade exposed European economy. If we get more friction in global trade, that's not great. So, you could even have short term, more negative news on GDP than positive ones. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to turn to you. Yesterday when we talked about Asia, we focused on Japan. But, of course, when it comes to the real side of the economy, the big mover in Asia is China.So, let's talk a little bit about how you see China evolving. What the key themes are for China. Last year in particular, we talked a lot about the deflationary cycle in China and how it was protracted. It wasn't going away. That policy was not sufficient to drive a huge surge in demand to push things away. Are we in the same place for China in 2026? What kind of growth should we expect and what sort of policy reactions should we be expecting from China? Chetan Ahya: Well, I think the macro backdrop for China we think will still be challenging in 2026. But at the same time, we expect the micro positives to continue. Now on the macro backdrop, when I say it's going to remain challenging because the number one issue that we are focused on from a macro perspective in China is deflation. Now we do expect some easing of deflationary pressures, but [the] economy will still stay in deflation in 2026. And on the micro front what we've seen is that China is emerging from a situation where it is making inroads into advanced manufacturing, and that's enabling it to increase market share in global goods exports. And it's also one of the reasons why when you see the numbers coming out from China on exports, they seem to be outperforming. Even just the latest month number as we saw, China's exports were surprising on the upside relative to market expectations. And that's the micro story – that you'll see China continuing to gain market share in global goods export. And that supports the corporate micro positive story. Seth Carpenter: We know collectively that export is a key part of China's economy. The productive capacity, as you point out, important for China. When you think about exports from China, the currency has to come in. And recently the renminbi has been appreciating. Lots of questions from clients here or there. How important is the renminbi in reflating or rebalancing the China economy? Can you walk us through a little bit some of these considerations about the role that the currency is playing now and over the next few quarters for China and its economic outlook. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, that's right, Seth. Actually, I've been getting a number of clients calling me and asking whether PBOC is going to allow a significant appreciation in RNB. We've seen it appreciate quite a lot in the last few days. And then whether this will mean China's economy will rebalance faster towards consumption. Look, on the first point, we don't think PBOC will allow a significant currency appreciation because, as I just mentioned earlier, the deflation problem is still there. It's not gone. While we see reduced deflationary pressures, as long as the economy is in deflation, it'll be very difficult for PBOC to allow significant currency appreciation. And what we are also watching on RMB is to see what is happening to the trade weighted RMB. The RMB basket, if you were to call it. That interestingly has been in a stable range since 2016, and we don't think that changes. We've learned from Japan's experience in the nineties that if you have deflation problem, you shouldn't be taking up currency appreciation. And we think PBOC pretty much follows that rule book. On the rebalancing part, look, I think when you have deflation and if currency appreciation is going to add to deflation pressures, that will mean corporate sector revenue suffers. They will actually be cutting wage growth and therefore that has a negative impact on consumption. And so, in our view, instead of helping rebalancing currency appreciation with China's current macro backdrop, we'll actually be making rebalancing more difficult. Seth Carpenter: And of course, we're used to China being a key driver of the economy, not just in Asia, but around the world. But if we think about then broadening out from China, what should we be expecting in terms of growth for the other economies in Asia? Chetan Ahya: For the other economies in the region, I think the most important driver will be what happens to exports more broadly. In 2025, Asia did benefit from better tech exports, but because of tariffs and also what was happening in the U.S. in terms of its own domestic demand, we'd seen that there was significant weakness in non-tech exports. So, from an outlook perspective in 2026, we think that that non-tech export story turns around and that will help the recovery in the region to broaden out from it just being tech exports to non-tech exports, to improvement in CapEx, job growth and consumption. So, I think that the whole region is going to see the benefit from this turnaround. But particularly the non-China part of the region will be seeing a meaningful improvement in their export growth, real GDP growth and normal GDP growth in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I'm getting ready to wrap things up. But before I do, I'm going to ask each of the three of you, one last rapid-fire question. Michael, I'm going to start with you. AI is on everyone's lips. If we were to see a rapid adoption of AI technology across all the economies. What would it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that would mean a substantial uptick in productivity growth. Maybe closer to 3 percent like we saw in the tech boom in the nineties. So faster real growth. But probably still disinflation. You can argue the Fed could even lower rates in that environment. It may take them a while to figure it out [be]cause they'd be balancing incoming data that shows a lot of strong growth. But probably further evidence that inflation's coming down. So, if it's supply side driven, then I think you could still probably get some rate cuts out of the Fed to normalize policy as inflation comes down. But I'd be thinking those cuts could even come much later. Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens to you, a lot of discussion in the news about possible additional tariffs from the U.S. on Europe in some of the negotiations. Suppose some of the announcements, 10 percent tariffs rising to 25 percent tariffs later. Suppose those were actually put in place. What does that mean for European growth? Jens Eisenschmidt: So, I would say 10 percent additional tariffs, we have a framework for that. Pointing to drag on GDP growth somewhere between 30 and 60 basis points. So roughly half of what we think 2026 will bring in growth. Now, for sure the answer is additional tariffs are not great for growth. Big question mark here is though whether we get any retaliation from the European side, which we think this time around if we get additional tariffs from the U.S. side is more likely. And that would just increase the downside risk for Europe here from that additional round of trade or tariff uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to end up with you. When we think about China, when we think about policy, what do you think it would take for there to be a fundamental shift in policy out of Beijing to get a real full blown, demand driven fiscal stimulus? Or is that just not in the cards whatsoever? Chetan Ahya: Well, in our base case, we don't think that's likely to happen in our forecast horizon. But if we do get a big social stability challenge emerging in China, then we could get that big pivot from [a] policy response perspective, where policy makers move towards consumption. And our recommendation there is to boost social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers, which could be taken up if you get that social stability risk event materializing. Seth Carpenter: Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And for the listener, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

As the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index finished above the 4,000-point level on the first trading day of 2026, the upward momentum is likely to continue in the A-share market throughout the year, which is backed by self-reliant technology advancement and continued recovery in economic fundamentals, said experts on Monday.专家于周一表示，2026 年首个交易日，基准上证综指收盘站上 4000 点整数关口，依托自主科技创新突破以及经济基本面的持续修复，A 股市场全年上行势头有望延续。Their comments came after the benchmark index closed 1.38 percent higher at 4,023.42 on Monday, while the Shenzhen Component Index gained 2.24 percent. The tech-heavy ChiNext board in Shenzhen jumped 2.85 percent. Combined trading value at the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges totaled 2.5 trillion yuan ($360 billion), up 500 billion yuan from the previous trading day.此番观点发布的背景是，该基准指数周一收盘上涨 1.38%，报 4023.42 点；深证成指上涨 2.24%；主打科技股的创业板指大涨 2.85%。沪深两市合计成交额达 2.5 万亿元人民币（折合 3600 亿美元），较前一交易日增加 5000 亿元。Insurance companies reported the strongest rally on Monday, surging 6.72 percent on average. The semiconductor sector also jumped 4.18 percent.保险板块成为周一领涨主力，平均涨幅达 6.72%；半导体板块同样大涨 4.18%。Experts from China Galaxy Securities explained that the recent rally in the Hong Kong market, which occurred during the New Year holiday break of A shares, coupled with the recent strengthening of the renminbi in the foreign exchange market, has boosted investor confidence.中国银河证券专家解读称，A 股元旦休市期间港股市场的连日走高，叠加近期人民币汇率在外汇市场的持续走强，共同提振了投资者信心。Analysts from Founder Securities said that breakthroughs to be anticipated in emerging industries — such as commercial spaceflight, artificial intelligence, brain-computer interface and nuclear fusion — will further propel the A-share rally as 2026 plays out.方正证券分析师表示，2026 年，商业航天、人工智能、脑机接口、核聚变等新兴产业的预期突破，将进一步推动 A 股市场上行。Foreign institutions hold a positive outlook on the A-share performance this year.外资机构对今年 A 股表现持积极展望。Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist, Kinger Lau, and his team wrote in a report in late December that China's major indexes still have room for 38 percent growth by the end of 2027, with companies' improving profitability to be a major driver.高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津及其团队在去年 12 月末的一份报告中写道，到 2027 年底，中国主要股指仍有 38% 的上涨空间，企业盈利能力的持续改善将是核心驱动因素。Meng Lei, a China equity strategist of UBS Securities, said that profitability growth, which came at 6 percent in 2025, is likely to further rise to 8 percent this year.瑞银证券中国股票策略师孟磊表示，2025 年企业盈利增速为 6%，今年这一增速有望进一步提升至 8%。UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office wrote in a note at the end of 2025 that about 7 trillion yuan of Chinese household excess savings may flow into the stock market this year, sustaining the upward trend.瑞银全球财富管理首席投资办公室在 2025 年末的一份报告中指出，今年中国居民约 7 万亿元的超额储蓄有望流入股市，为市场上行趋势提供支撑。JPMorgan said in a forecast that the CSI 300 Index, which monitors the 300 A-share heavyweights, may touch 5,200 points at the end of this year. Morgan Stanley sets a target of 4,840 points for the same index, which stood at 4,717.75 points on Monday.摩根大通在一份预测报告中称，涵盖 300 只 A 股龙头股的沪深 300 指数，年底有望触及 5200 点。摩根士丹利则将该指数目标点位定为 4840 点，该指数周一收盘报 4717.75 点。According to experts from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the readings of China's purchasing managers' index in December grew beyond seasonal improvements, which further trims the downward possibility of the A-share market this coming spring.申万宏源证券专家表示，12 月中国采购经理人指数（PMI）的回升幅度超出季节性改善水平，这进一步降低了今年春季 A 股市场出现回调的可能性。The A-share market will prepare itself for an overall bull run this year. The RMB's recent stronger-than-expected appreciation has strengthened the global market's understanding of the competitiveness of the Chinese manufacturing sector, which may trigger the accelerated return of foreign capital into A shares, they said.他们指出，A 股市场正为今年的全面牛市蓄力。近期人民币汇率的超预期走强，加深了全球市场对中国制造业竞争力的认知，这或将推动外资加速回流 A 股。Zhang Xia, chief strategy analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that the odds are high for the A-share market to stage a bullish performance this spring. The issuance of local government special bonds and central budgetary investments are likely to speed up."Government expenditure and investment data are likely to improve, which will lead to marginal recovery in economic fundamentals," Zhang said.招商证券首席策略分析师张夏（音译）表示，A 股市场今年春季走出一波上涨行情的概率较大。地方政府专项债发行以及中央预算内投资有望提速，“政府支出和投资数据的好转，将带动经济基本面实现边际修复。”Xia Fanjie, a strategist at CSC Financial Co Ltd, said that market liquidity and foreign exchange performance during this year's New Year holiday were significantly better than during the previous two years. The amiable external market may lead to an A-share bull shortly after the holiday.中信建投证券策略分析师夏凡捷表示，今年元旦假期期间的市场流动性与外汇表现，均明显优于前两年。良好的外部市场环境，或推动 A 股在节后快速迎来一波上涨行情。The overall relaxed credit environment in China is conducive to extending the bullish performance for a longer period. Investor sentiment remains high. Opportunities may be churned out in industries with higher industry prospects, including nonferrous metals and AI, as well as hot market topics such as commercial spaceflight and nuclear power, Xia said.夏凡捷称，国内整体宽松的信用环境，有助于延长市场上涨周期。当前投资者情绪处于高位，有色金属、人工智能等行业前景向好的板块，以及商业航天、核电等市场热点主题，有望持续涌现投资机会。The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 18.3 percent in 2025, while the Shenzhen Component Index surged 30.62 percent. The ChiNext spiked 51.42 percent last year.2025 年，上证综指全年大涨 18.3%，深证成指飙升 30.62%，创业板指更是暴涨 51.42%。Qiu Xiang, chief A-share market strategist of CITIC Securities, said a noticeable structural bull took shape in the A-share market last year.中信证券首席 A 股策略师裘翔表示，A 股市场已于去年形成了特征鲜明的结构性牛市。The market has reevaluated China's self-reliant technology capabilities, the resilience of external demand amid a complicated global trade environment and the surging demand for AI reasoning. While upward momentum is a major theme, fluctuations may not be avoided in the A-share market as the new year begins, Qiu said.他指出，市场已对中国的自主科技实力、复杂全球贸易环境下的外需韧性，以及人工智能推理需求的爆发式增长进行了重新估值。尽管上行是全年主基调，但新年伊始，A 股市场的波动仍在所难免。核心单词（音标 + 释义）momentum /məˈmentəm/ n. 势头；动力profitability /ˌprɒfɪtəˈbɪləti/ n. 盈利能力；收益性liquidity /lɪˈkwɪdəti/ n. 流动性；资产变现能力resilience /rɪˈzɪliəns/ n. 韧性；恢复力

Greetings to all! Year after year, life opens a fresh chapter. As the new year begins, I extend my best wishes to you from Beijing!The year 2025 marks the completion of China's 14th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development. Over the past five years, we have pressed ahead with enterprise and fortitude, and overcome many difficulties and challenges. We met the targets in the Plan and made solid advances on the new journey of Chinese modernization. Our economic output has crossed thresholds one after another, and it is expected to reach RMB 140 trillion yuan this year. Our economic strength, scientific and technological abilities, defense capabilities, and composite national strength all reached new heights. Clear waters and lush mountains have become a salient feature of our landscape. Our people enjoy a growing sense of gain, happiness and security. The past five years have been a truly remarkable journey, and our accomplishments have not come easily. Your unwavering hard work has made our nation thrive and prosper. I salute you all for your exceptional diligence and invaluable contributions.This year is full of indelible memories. We solemnly commemorated the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, and established the Taiwan Recovery Day. These grand national events were majestic and powerful, and the glory of victory will shine through the pages of history. They are inspiring all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation to remember history, honor fallen heroes, cherish peace, and create a better future. They are rallying a mighty force for the great rejuvenation of our nation.We sought to energize high-quality development through innovation. We integrated science and technology deeply with industries, and made a stream of new innovations. Many large AI models have been competing in a race to the top, and breakthroughs have been achieved in the research and development of our own chips. All this has turned China into one of the economies with the fastest growing innovation capabilities. The Tianwen 2 probe began its star-chasing journey to explore asteroids and comets. Construction of the hydropower project at the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started. China's first aircraft carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system was officially commissioned. Humanoid robots did kung fu kicks, and drones performed spectacular light shows. Inventions and innovations have boosted new quality productive forces and added colorful dimensions to our lives.We endeavored to nurture our spiritual home with cultural development. There was a surging public interest in cultural relics, museums, and intangible cultural heritage. A new Chinese cultural site was added to the World Heritage List. Cultural IPs such as Wukong and Nezha became global hits. The younger generation came to deem classic Chinese culture as the finest form of aesthetic expression. The cultural and tourism sectors thrived. The "super league" football games in our cities and villages attracted numerous fans. Ice and snow sports ignited people's passion for the winter season. Tradition is now embracing modernity, and the Chinese culture is shining in even greater splendor.We joined hands to build a better life and enjoyed it together. I attended celebrations in Xizang and Xinjiang. From the snow-covered plateau to both sides of the Tianshan Mountains, people of various ethnic groups are united as one, like seeds of a pomegranate sticking together. With white khatas and passionate singing and dancing, they expressed their love of the motherland and the happiness they enjoy. No issue of the people is too small; we care for every leaf and tend every branch in the garden of people's well-being. Over the past year, the rights and interests of the workforce in new forms of employment have been better protected, facilities have been upgraded to bring more convenience to the elderly, and each family with childcare needs has received a subsidy of RMB 300 yuan per month. When the happy hum of daily life fills every home, the big family of our nation will go from strength to strength.We continued to embrace the world with open arms. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin and the Global Leaders' Meeting on Women were very successful; and island-wide special customs operations were launched in the Hainan Free Trade Port. To better address climate change, China announced new Nationally Determined Contributions. After announcing the three global initiatives on development, security, and civilization, I put forward the Global Governance Initiative to promote a more just and equitable global governance system. The world today is undergoing both changes and turbulence, and some regions are still engulfed in war. China always stands on the right side of history, and is ready to work with all countries to advance world peace and development and build a community with a shared future for humanity.Not long ago, I attended the opening ceremony of the National Games, and I was glad to see Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao coming together in unity and acting in unison. We should unswervingly implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, and support Hong Kong and Macao in better integrating into the overall development of our country and maintaining long-term prosperity and stability. We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable!Only a strong Communist Party of China can make our country strong. We launched the study and education program on fully implementing the central Party leadership's eight-point decision on improving Party and government conduct. We exercised strict governance of the Party through credible measures, and promoted the Party's self-revolution to fight corruption and advance healthy governance. As a result, the conduct of our Party and government steadily improved. We must stay true to our original aspiration and founding mission, and pursue our goal with perseverance and dedication. We should continue to give a good answer to the question on how to maintain long-term governance put forth in a cave dwelling in Yan'an and prove ourselves worthy of the people's expectation in the new era.The year 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. A successful venture should start with a good plan and with clear goals set. We should focus on our goals and tasks, boost confidence, and build momentum to press ahead. We should take solid steps to promote high-quality development, further deepen reform and opening up across the board, deliver prosperity for all, and write a new chapter in the story of China's miracle.The dream lofty, the journey long-bold strides will get us there. Let us charge ahead like horses with courage, vitality, and energy, fight for our dreams and our happiness, and turn our great vision into beautiful realities.The sun of the new year will soon rise. May our great motherland stand in magnificence! May the fields across the country deliver good harvest! May our nation bathe in the glory of the morning! May you all enjoy life to the fullest, and achieve every success! May all your dreams come true!

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture[CB] around the world are dumping the Fed note, they just aren’t taking on anymore, everything is about to change. Trump’s GDP outshines Biden’s. China is now going to restrict silver, silver is used in electronics, batteries,solar panels etc. Silver prices are going to move. [CB] fraud is now exposed. The Tariff system is the future. The [DS] criminal syndicate is being exposed, it’s not just in DC it is world wide. As people learn how corrupt the system is and most of the taxes and borrowing goes to support the criminal system the people will be with Trump to remove the Fed. Trump is in the process of bringing down the entire corrupt temple on the [DS]. Trump moves closer to peace with Ukraine, 2026 is going to change everything. Economy Status of the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to Lowest since 1994  Central Banks diversify their holdings into dozens of smaller “non-traditional reserve currencies.”  The share of USD-denominated assets held by other central banks dropped to 56.9% of total foreign exchange reserves in Q3, the lowest since 1994, from 57.1% in Q2 and 58.5% in Q1, according to the IMF's new data on Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves. USD-denominated foreign exchange reserves include US Treasury securities, US mortgage-backed securities (MBS), US agency securities, US corporate bonds, and other USD-denominated assets held by central banks other than the Fed. Excluded are any central bank's assets denominated in its own currency, such as the Fed's Treasury securities or the ECB's euro-denominated securities. It's not that foreign central banks dumped US-dollar-denominated assets, such as Treasury securities. They did not. They added a little to their holdings. But they added more assets denominated in other currencies, particularly a gaggle of smaller currencies whose combined share has surged, while central banks' holdings of USD-denominated assets haven't changed much for a decade, and so the percentage share of those USD assets continued to decline.   Central banks' holdings of foreign exchange reserves in all currencies, and expressed in USD, rose to $13.0 trillion in Q3. Top holdings, expressed in USD: USD assets: $7.41 trillion Euro assets (EUR): $2.65 trillion Yen assets (YEN): $0.76 trillion British pound assets (GBP): $0.58 trillion Canadian dollar assets (CAD): $0.35 trillion Australian dollar assets (AUD): $0.27 trillion Chinese renminbi (RMB) assets: $0.25 trillion Source: wolfstreet.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");  https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2004750391435755846?s=20 https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2004928015172821228?s=20 https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2004946780216328590?s=20  Political/Rights https://twitter.com/Patri0tContr0l/status/2004590513182367845?s=20  https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2005107085865103608?s=20 ICE: 70% Arrested Had Criminal Ties Roughly 70% of illegal migrants arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under the second Trump administration reportedly had been convicted of or faced charges for criminal offenses. New data provided to the Washington Examiner shows the Trump administration arrested about 595,000 illegal immigrants between Jan. 20 and Dec. 11, according to the Department of Homeland Security. ICE said 70%, roughly 416,000, had “criminal convictions or pending criminal charges” in the United States, underscoring President Donald Trump’s promise to prioritize the “worst of the worst” in immigration enforcement. ICE officials stressed that even those without U.S. criminal records can still pose major public safety threats, the agency said, noting many are wanted abroad for violent crimes or have ties to gangs, terrorism, or other serious offenses. “This statistic doesn’t account for those wanted for violent crimes in their home country or another country, INTERPOL notices, human rights abusers, gang members, terrorists, etc. The list goes on,” an ICE spokesperson told the Examiner. Source: newsmax.com   New Files Show Epstein Was ‘Too Useful' for Banks to Drop — Trump Was ‘Too Politically Dangerous' to Keep  The newest Epstein disclosures include deposition testimony that illustrates, in unusually concrete detail, how major financial institutions assessed risk, value, and accountability. The transcript does not add new allegations about Epstein. Instead, it explains why he remained bankable long after his 2008 conviction and why his relationship with major banks survived despite generating almost no traditional revenue. That institutional logic is the same logic that later drove JPMorgan to end its ties with Trump Media, and the contrast between the two cases shows how selectively these standards are applied. In the deposition, Paul Morris—a private banker who handled Epstein's accounts at JPMorgan Chase and later Deutsche Bank—described Epstein's financial profile with unusual precision. Epstein's trading was minimal. His accounts produced limited fees. He was not a high-activity client and did not utilize the investment tools that banks rely on to generate consistent revenue. By every conventional benchmark, he was a low-value account. And yet, the relationship continued. The deposition shows why. Epstein was not retained for his financial performance but for his institutional usefulness. Morris acknowledged that Epstein facilitated introductions to ultra-wealthy individuals that the bank viewed as essential prospects. One example was Leon Black, whom Morris identified as a “priority prospect” because of Black's significant net worth and influence in the investment sector. Epstein introduced the bank to real-estate investor Andrew Farkas and discussed a potential connection involving biotech investor Boris Nikolic, who had ties to Bill Gates. These introductions were specific, documented, and initiated by Epstein, not the bank. This is the key element that many public accounts overlook. Epstein was not being managed as a traditional client. He functioned as a relationship broker inside a system where introductions to power carry more internal value than account-level returns. Source: thegatewaypundit.com  DOGE Geopolitical The EU Leaders Shouting About Visa Bans Are the Same EU Leaders Who Sent Political Operatives Into the U.S. to Support Kamala Harris  EU leaders from across the spectrum of their collective assembly, are furious with the administration of President Donald Trump for restricting their entry into the United States by blocking their visa permissions.  However, these same EU leaders are the people who sent operatives into the United States in order to interfere in our 2024 election. The Vice President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas, sums up the European position: “The decision by the U.S. to impose travel restrictions on European citizens and officials is unacceptable and an attempt to challenge our sovereignty. Europe will keep defending its values — freedom of expression, fair digital rules, and the right to regulate our own space.” The “attempt to challenge our sovereignty” statement is a particular type of hubris when we consider THIS: GREAT BRITAIN (October 2024) – The British Labour Party is sending approximately 100 current and former staff members to the United States to work for Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign in key swing states. [SOURCE – LINKEDIN] Not only did the U.K attempt to challenge our sovereignty, but they also actively worked to influence the outcome of our national election in 2024. It is worth remembering the British intelligence operation, (Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), commonly known as MI6), was at the center of the Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy in 2016. The first EU political group to be targeted with the visa bans includes French former EU commissioner Thierry Breton, who was one of the architects of the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA). Also: Imran Ahmed, the British CEO of the U.S.-based Center for Countering Digital Hate, Anna-Lena von Hodenberg and Josephine Ballon of the German non-profit HateAid, and Clare Melford, co-founder of the Global Disinformation Index. https://twitter.com/GeneHamilton/status/2004656229684224393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2004656229684224393%7Ctwgr%5E91706d63d41394916634b106fbd2268d7711e121%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2Fblog%2F2025%2F12%2F27%2Fthe-eu-leaders-shouting-about-visa-bans-are-the-same-eu-leaders-who-sent-political-operatives-into-the-u-s-to-support-kamala-harris%2F https://twitter.com/GeneHamilton/status/2004656234910433405?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2004656234910433405%7Ctwgr%5E91706d63d41394916634b106fbd2268d7711e121%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2Fblog%2F2025%2F12%2F27%2Fthe-eu-leaders-shouting-about-visa-bans-are-the-same-eu-leaders-who-sent-political-operatives-into-the-u-s-to-support-kamala-harris%2F Source: theconservativetreehouse.com https://twitter.com/michaelgwaltz/status/2005058695647166898?s=20 https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/2005035840934723894?s=20 War/Peace   EIGHT, perhaps the United States has become the REAL United Nations, which has been of very little assistance or help in any of them, including the disaster currently going on between Russia and Ukraine. The United Nations must start getting active and involved in WORLD PEACE!   the United States is capable of doing. Under my leadership, our Country will not allow Radical Islamic Terrorism to prosper. May God Bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues.   DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Trump Tasks Military With an ‘Oil Quarantine' Against Venezuela, as Economic Pressure Is Chosen for Now Over Military Action Venezuela's oil industry under maximum pressure.   And now that the extended holidays are over, the socialist regime will have to deal with the veritable siege imposed by the US and its unprecedented armada. Venezuela is running out of storage space for its oil production since some ships are being seized and many others turned around and left.  Now, it arises that Donald J. Trump has directed US forces to enforce ‘an oil quarantine' against Venezuela for at least the next two months. These moves lead many to think that the Trump team will focus on economic rather than military means to pressure Caracas into ousting Maduro. Reuters reported:   Read  more: Source: thegatewaypundit.com Trump Blockade Leaves $1 Billion Of Venezuelan Crude Stranded On Tankers  With a two-month “quarantine” placed on Venezuelan oil by the Trump administration in a foreign policy move called “gunboat diplomacy,” new data estimate that roughly $900 million worth of crude is currently loaded on tankers, unable to depart Venezuela due to the U.S. blockade. “Based on our visual analysis from both shore and space, we estimate that there are around 17.5 million barrels of crude oil floating onboard tankers in Venezuela which are unable to depart due to the ongoing US blockade,” independent research Tanker Trackers wrote on X. “That’s around $900M of oil.” https://twitter.com/TankerTrackers/status/2004713684871078162?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2004713684871078162%7Ctwgr%5E016cd45f97095edcd74bb159f40c4e93caf9794d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Ftrump-blockade-leaves-1-billion-venezuelan-crude-stranded-tankers Source: zerohedge.com Trump to POLITICO: Zelenskyy ‘doesn't have anything until I approve it' Trump's comments come ahead of his Sunday meeting with Zelenskyy, who will bring with him a new 20-point plan to end the war President Donald Trump on Friday cast himself as the ultimate arbiter of any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, in an exclusive conversation with POLITICO. “He doesn't have anything until I approve it,” Trump said. “So we'll see what he's got.” Source: politico.com https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/2005352028365848993?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2005352028365848993%7Ctwgr%5E1588e24fb392689513bf7b2f064c646c1bf5f470%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F12%2Ftrump-says-russia-ukraine-peace-talks-entering-final%2F  Medical/False Flags 19 Blue States Sue Trump Admin to Preserve Right to Perform Child Sex Changes Last week, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said he would cut off Medicare and Medicaid funding to any provider that offers so-called gender-affirming treatment to minors. “Under my leadership, and answering President Trump's call to action, the federal government will do everything in its power to stop unsafe, irreversible practices that put our children at risk,” Kennedy said at the time. The Oregon-led lawsuit claims that the decision “exceeds the Secretary's authority and violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Medicare and Medicaid statutes.” A total of nineteen blue states are suing the Trump administration in a bid to protect the right to perform child sex changes. His office said in a press release: Source: thegatewaypundit.com [DS] Agenda  https://twitter.com/nickshirleyy/status/2004642794862961123?s=20   work way too hard and pay too much in taxes for this to be happening, the fraud must be stopped. https://twitter.com/MAGAVoice/status/2005011311756017964?s=20 https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/2005158623442600391?s=20 https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/2005292438114738555?s=20  diabolical. And it’s going to work until we understand that primaries will be more important than generals from here out on. https://twitter.com/C_3C_3/status/2005016429687701811?s=20 https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2005351086115405986?s=20 https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/2005030256382464493?s=20  and your tribe. I spent a lot of my life in the Middle East and Central Asia, working closely with foreign contractors and foreign governments to provide support to American military operations. As a US Army officer with a big checkbook courtesy of Uncle Sam, I can't really count the sheer number of times I was offered bribes to award a contract, or falsify records to do things like create larger (fake) headcounts at places like dining facilities, or to just simply be on the take for future illegal requests. Of course I had enough sense to never comply with such requests. Moreover, they were never explicitly structured as “bribes”; instead it was usually along the lines of “Here I have these Rolexes as gifts for you and your wife to show our friendship.” (Unfortunately, too many US officers and NCOs succumbed to this siren song and ended up breaking rocks in Leavenworth.) The weird thing about this to me was that whenever I turned down such an offering, it was treated as a grave insult. I was the one in the wrong, and not the fraudster trying to bribe me. They considered it rude that I was in their country and refused to accept how things got done. After all, why did I not want to help my tribe by helping their tribe? Let me repeat: in these cultures, FRAUD IS NOT EVEN A CONCEPT. There is only what helps your tribe. Such thought processes are so alien to Americans and much of the West. We are raised on the presumption that our institutions are valid, that the rule of law always prevails, and that integrity is universal. We need these presumptions to have working governments and economies, and without those presumptions—without the mental barrier that causes us not to accept outright fraud—our nation would quickly descend into the economic and social hellscape of countries like…. ummm… you know…. SOMALIA! So when we import people en masse from cultures that accept bribery and fraud as routine, acceptable ways to advance one's tribe, we should not be surprised that things like the $8 BILLION fraud schemes of the Somali population in Minnesota happen so easily. Introducing a fraud-based culture based on tribalism into America is like introducing some sort of lethal virus into a population that has no natural immunity. The virus will spread and grow, unchecked, because it is so alien to the host. Similarly, a culture of fraud is anathema to American thinking, and it must be cut out before it consumes the host. So when you see and hear patriotic Americans decrying what is happening in Minnesota or elsewhere, and when they seek deportation of the offenders, it is not “racism,” it is not “bigotry,” it is not “xenophobia”; instead, it is preserving the American tradition of responsible institutions and national integrity. https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2005262465190223928?s=20 https://twitter.com/FBIDirectorKash/status/2005305530651189719?s=20   exploiting federal programs. Fraud that steals from taxpayers and robs vulnerable children will remain a top FBI priority in Minnesota and nationwide. To date, the FBI dismantled a $250 million fraud scheme that stole federal food aid meant for vulnerable children during COVID. The investigation exposed sham vendors, shell companies, and large-scale money laundering tied to the Feeding Our Future network. The case led to 78 indictments and 57 convictions. Defendants included Abdiwahab Ahmed Mohamud, Ahmed Ali, Hussein Farah, Abdullahe Nur Jesow, Asha Farhan Hassan, Ousman Camara, and Abdirashid Bixi Dool, each charged for roles ranging from wire fraud to money laundering and conspiracy. These criminals didn't just engaged in historic fraud, but tried to subvert justice as well. Abdimajid Mohamed Nur and others were charged for attempting to bribe a juror with $120,000 in cash. Those responsible pleaded guilty and were sentenced, including a 10-year prison term and nearly $48 million in restitution in related cases. The FBI believes this is just the tip of a very large iceberg. We will continue to follow the money and protect children, and this investigation very much remains ongoing. Furthermore, many are also being referred to immigrations officials for possible further denaturalization and deportation proceedings where eligible. https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/2004932316926193933?s=20 https://twitter.com/HarmeetKDhillon/status/2004976287270731981?s=20 https://twitter.com/rising_serpent/status/2005080344610177489?s=20  https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2005092720927232198?s=20  “skeptical jurors” in federal cases involving President Trump. Co-founder Alex Dodds said jurors have “enormous power” to judge the administration itself. Critics report the sessions encourage rigging trials against the administration, conduct plainly barred under 8 USC §1503. President Trump's Plan https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2004653262491058216?s=20 accomplished what no one else could. When we arrived, taxpayers were about to be on the hook for nearly $5 billion for a new headquarters that wouldn't open until 2035. We scrapped that plan. Instead, we selected the already-existing Reagan Building, saving billions and allowing the transition to begin immediately with required safety and infrastructure upgrades already underway. Once complete, most of the HQ FBI workforce will move in, and the rest are continuing in our ongoing push to put more manpower in the field, where they will remain. This decision puts resources where they belong: defending the homeland, crushing violent crime, and protecting national security. It delivers better tools for today's FBI workforce at a fraction of the cost. The Hoover Building will be shut down permanently.  They Got Her: FBI Caught Hillary Clinton Talking Donations with Foreign Felon on Tape As Hillary Clinton closed in on the presidential nomination in the spring of 2016, FBI field officers advised colleagues at headquarters to press her on the foreign donations flowing to the Clinton Foundation while she steered American foreign policy and whether she had used the charity as a campaign piggy bank. But the FBI HQ in Washington — a city in which the former secretary of state and first lady wields enormous influence — let the trail go cold. FBI New York Assistant Director in Charge Diego Rodriguez advised agents in Washington to ask Clinton several questions about the foundation, which are reproduced in full in documents released to the Senate Judiciary Committee by the FBI and published on Dec. 15. The questions reveal the concerns about foreign bribery that the Clinton Foundation case — codenamed “Cracked Foundation” — had uncovered. Among the evidence available to investigators, according to their questions: A recorded conversation between Clinton and Indian hotel magnate Sant Singh Chatwal in which Clinton discussed donations to the foundation and her remaining 2008 campaign debt. The new documents confirm that the FBI had at one time been “intercepting individuals associated with the Clinton Foundation.” Source: westernjournal.com  John Brennan's Lawfare Lawyers are Revealing More Than They Intend   former CIA Director John Brennan are sending proactive letters to the Federal District Court for the Southern District of Florida {SEE HERE}.  However, some of the information included in the letters intended to be exculpatory is actually damning against their defense position. You have to go deep in the weeds to see it but if you understand the details of the events, the information being revealed by Brennan's lawyers is the opposite of helpful to his case.  As an example, there is a citation included in a footnote of the December 22, 2025, [fn #20 page 6] letter that links to a March 31, 2022, letter sent to John Durham. Here's page 6 of the 2025 letter. Compare the underlined section to the 2022 letter sent to John Durham. In 2025 Brennan is telling the Florida court the Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) conclusion was confirmed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller in a “very serious review.”  However, in 2022 Brennan told John Durham that Robert Mueller never interviewed him or offered an assessment of the ICA; Mueller just regurgitated it. So, which is it? These contradictions are throughout both of the letters when you compare them side-by-side.  In 2022 former CIA Director John Brennan was trying to escape the Durham review.  In 2025 Brennan is trying to escape a grand jury review. [We are aware that the U.S Attorney for the Southern District of Florida, Jason Reding Quiñones, has access to the CTH public library of research into all of these historic events.] There are other citations in the 2022 letter that are certainly worth reviewing because the legally binding statements made by John Brennan at the time have been shown to be false in 2025. Another of the claims in the 2022 letter to John Durham highlights why it was critical for the CIA to assist in the capture and arrest of Julian Assange in 2019. Source: thegatewaypundit.com  Trump: Upcoming Midterms Will Be ‘About Pricing’ The 2026 midterm elections will be “about pricing,” according to President Donald Trump, who said that his administration is restoring the nation’s economy after the condition in which former President Joe Biden left it. “I think it’s going to be about the success of our country,” Trump said in an interview with Politico, the outlet reported Saturday. “They gave us high pricing, and we’re bringing it down. Energy’s way down. Gasoline is way down.” Over the past two weeks, a series of positive economic reports has shown that inflation is decreasing, with the White House highlighting the latest data while addressing cost-of-living concerns nationwide. According to a Politico poll conducted last month, Americans say they are finding that the costs of groceries, utilities, healthcare, housing, and transportation are too expensive. Trump has been fighting to reframe that, however, blaming Democrats under Biden for driving prices up. He said in the interview, conducted Friday, that “electricity is down. It’s way down.” “When the gasoline goes down, and when the oil and gas go down, the electricity comes down naturally,” he said. “But it’s all coming down. It’s all coming down. It’s coming beautifully.” Source: newsmax.com https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2004696380531503505?s=20   the NG will have quick response troops on standby in every state, the FBI building is being moved to a new location, the war between Russia and Ukraine is coming to an end, and all of Trump's pieces will be in place. There seems to be a shift in attitude. I think we are passing into a different phase of the operation. The shadow war will eventually have to come to the surface. 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In case number 19 CR. 490 (RMB), the United States government brought formal criminal charges against Jeffrey Epstein, leading to a court-issued Decision & Order Remanding Defendant. This order came after Epstein's arrest in July 2019 on federal sex trafficking charges involving underage girls. The court reviewed Epstein's bail proposal—which included offering his Manhattan townhouse as collateral and agreeing to strict conditions—but ultimately found that no set of conditions could guarantee his appearance at trial or ensure the safety of the community. The decision emphasized both the serious nature of the charges and Epstein's substantial financial resources and international ties, which posed a clear flight risk.As a result, the court ordered Epstein to be remanded to custody, meaning he was to remain in federal detention without bail until trial. The ruling rejected arguments from Epstein's legal team that he could be trusted to comply with any pretrial release conditions. The court also cited concerns about witness tampering and the possibility of further harm to victims. This decision effectively kept Epstein at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, where he remained until his controversial death one month later.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:Epstein-berman.pdfBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-moscow-murders-and-more--5852883/support.

In case number 19 CR. 490 (RMB), the United States government brought formal criminal charges against Jeffrey Epstein, leading to a court-issued Decision & Order Remanding Defendant. This order came after Epstein's arrest in July 2019 on federal sex trafficking charges involving underage girls. The court reviewed Epstein's bail proposal—which included offering his Manhattan townhouse as collateral and agreeing to strict conditions—but ultimately found that no set of conditions could guarantee his appearance at trial or ensure the safety of the community. The decision emphasized both the serious nature of the charges and Epstein's substantial financial resources and international ties, which posed a clear flight risk.As a result, the court ordered Epstein to be remanded to custody, meaning he was to remain in federal detention without bail until trial. The ruling rejected arguments from Epstein's legal team that he could be trusted to comply with any pretrial release conditions. The court also cited concerns about witness tampering and the possibility of further harm to victims. This decision effectively kept Epstein at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, where he remained until his controversial death one month later.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:Epstein-berman.pdfBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-moscow-murders-and-more--5852883/support.

In case number 19 CR. 490 (RMB), the United States government brought formal criminal charges against Jeffrey Epstein, leading to a court-issued Decision & Order Remanding Defendant. This order came after Epstein's arrest in July 2019 on federal sex trafficking charges involving underage girls. The court reviewed Epstein's bail proposal—which included offering his Manhattan townhouse as collateral and agreeing to strict conditions—but ultimately found that no set of conditions could guarantee his appearance at trial or ensure the safety of the community. The decision emphasized both the serious nature of the charges and Epstein's substantial financial resources and international ties, which posed a clear flight risk.As a result, the court ordered Epstein to be remanded to custody, meaning he was to remain in federal detention without bail until trial. The ruling rejected arguments from Epstein's legal team that he could be trusted to comply with any pretrial release conditions. The court also cited concerns about witness tampering and the possibility of further harm to victims. This decision effectively kept Epstein at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, where he remained until his controversial death one month later.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:Epstein-berman.pdfBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-epstein-chronicles--5003294/support.

In case number 19 CR. 490 (RMB), the United States government brought formal criminal charges against Jeffrey Epstein, leading to a court-issued Decision & Order Remanding Defendant. This order came after Epstein's arrest in July 2019 on federal sex trafficking charges involving underage girls. The court reviewed Epstein's bail proposal—which included offering his Manhattan townhouse as collateral and agreeing to strict conditions—but ultimately found that no set of conditions could guarantee his appearance at trial or ensure the safety of the community. The decision emphasized both the serious nature of the charges and Epstein's substantial financial resources and international ties, which posed a clear flight risk.As a result, the court ordered Epstein to be remanded to custody, meaning he was to remain in federal detention without bail until trial. The ruling rejected arguments from Epstein's legal team that he could be trusted to comply with any pretrial release conditions. The court also cited concerns about witness tampering and the possibility of further harm to victims. This decision effectively kept Epstein at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, where he remained until his controversial death one month later.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:Epstein-berman.pdfBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-epstein-chronicles--5003294/support.

Motheo Khoaripe speaks to Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist at RMB about the recent uptick in South African business confidence and what it means for the economy going forward. In other interviews, FNB CEO Harry Kellan, talks about his career from audit manager at Arthur Andersen to HSBC associate director, joining FNB in 2005, becoming CFO at 35, serving over a decade as FirstRand Group CFO, and now leading FNB since April 2024. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for one of the most wide-ranging and eye-opening conversations we have ever hosted. Louis breaks down how China transformed its economy over the last seven years, why Western observers consistently misunderstand the country's growth model, and what this means for global markets, AI competition, supply chains, currencies, energy, demographics, and the next decade of investing. If you want a clearer picture of China, global macro dynamics, and the forces shaping markets today, this is essential viewing.Topics covered in this episode:• Why Western investors misread China's economy• China's response to the US semiconductor embargo• How China redirected all lending toward industry• The scale and speed of China's move up the value chain• China's EV dominance and the BYD vs. Tesla comparison• The new global deflation and reflation forces• Why China now looks like the US did in 2009• Energy, labor, and industrial competitiveness• China's open-source AI approach vs. America's closed systems• “Hunger Games” capitalism and the impact on investors• Where foreign investors consistently get China wrong• The RMB as the most mispriced major asset• How China's demographics shape policy and markets• Why fears of a Taiwan conflict are overblown• How Louis is positioning for China's next bull marketTimestamps:00:00 China's economic shock and the US semiconductor embargo02:00 What the West gets wrong about China04:00 Competition, local governments, and industrial incentives06:10 China's lending shift: real estate to industry08:00 China's rapid climb up the value chain10:00 BYD vs Tesla and China's engineering surge12:30 The global deflationary shock and US–China tensions15:00 From defense to offense: China's policy pivot17:00 China's reflation and emerging market implications18:20 Scarcity of energy, labor, and time21:00 China's cost advantages vs the US24:00 Comparing AI strategies: open vs closed systems28:00 “Hunger Games” capitalism in China31:30 Investing challenges and opportunities in China34:00 China's new high-tech niche champions37:00 Capital-light Chinese AI vs US capital intensity40:30 Rethinking US-China blocs and global alliances44:00 Why Europe will be torn apart by the next phase45:30 Will China outperform the US over the next decade?47:00 The massively undervalued RMB49:00 China's barbell investment setup50:00 China's demographic crisis and policy response53:00 Taiwan risk: myth vs reality58:00 How Louis could be wrong01:00:40 Louis's contrarian investing belief01:02:00 Louis's one lesson for investors

Stephen Grootes speaks to Sim Tshabalala, Standard Bank CEO and B20 Finance and Infrastructure Task Force co-chair, about overcoming geopolitical divisions to push G20 investment recommendations and close the global infrastructure gap, as Tshabalala also slams credit rating agencies for mispricing African debt. In other interviews, Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist at RMB talks about the unanimous decision to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, the adoption of a 3% inflation target, and what these changes mean for South Africa’s growth outlook and monetary policy trajectory. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape. Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa Follow us on social media 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702 CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalkCapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalkCapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SHOW 10-21-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1885 NYSE THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT THE MARKET ON A BULL RUN... FIRST HOUR 9-915 Private Equity Tapped to Fund US Military Infrastructure Revamp Elizabeth Peek, Fox News and The Hill, with John Batchelor Peek discusses the US Army's initiative to attract $150 billion from private equity giants for infrastructure upgrades, including data centers, leveraging private capital for necessary long-term investments. She notes the US economy shows accelerating growth, defying recession predictions, fueled by strategic investments in technology and domestic manufacturing. Peek also critiques the "No Kings" protest as a politically weak movement lacking a concrete agenda beyond expressing frustration with Trump. 915-930 Private Equity Tapped to Fund US Military Infrastructure Revamp Elizabeth Peek, Fox News and The Hill, with John Batchelor Peek discusses the US Army's initiative to attract $150 billion from private equity giants for infrastructure upgrades, including data centers, leveraging private capital for necessary long-term investments. She notes the US economy shows accelerating growth, defying recession predictions, fueled by strategic investments in technology and domestic manufacturing. Peek also critiques the "No Kings" protest as a politically weak movement lacking a concrete agenda beyond expressing frustration with Trump. 930-945 Gaza Ceasefire and Regional Instability in the Middle East Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with John Batchelor Schanzer analyzes the Gaza ceasefire, noting Hamas is deliberately slow-rolling the return of bodies to maintain leverage. New regional tensions are rising, including reports of Egypt moving aggressive offensive weapons into the Sinai and Turkey calling for a pan-Islamic offensive against Israel. Schanzer notes that internal power struggles between tribes and a weakening Hamas could lead to political fragmentation in Gaza. 945-1000 Gaza Ceasefire and Regional Instability in the Middle East Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with John Batchelor Schanzer analyzes the Gaza ceasefire, noting Hamas is deliberately slow-rolling the return of bodies to maintain leverage. New regional tensions are rising, including reports of Egypt moving aggressive offensive weapons into the Sinai and Turkey calling for a pan-Islamic offensive against Israel. Schanzer notes that internal power struggles between tribes and a weakening Hamas could lead to political fragmentation in Gaza. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Macron's Political Crisis and the Rise of the National Rally Joseph Sternberg, Wall Street Journal, with John Batchelor Sternberg explains that President Macron's political turmoil stems from his determination to avoid new elections, fearing defeat by Marine Le Pen's National Rally. Macron's reform agenda failed because he was perceived as an urban elite disconnected from voters and lacked a cohesive free-market vision. Sternberg also addresses Prince Andrew, noting his lack of accountability regarding his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein makes him a permanent liability for the monarchy. 1015-1030 Macron's Political Crisis and the Rise of the National Rally Joseph Sternberg, Wall Street Journal, with John Batchelor Sternberg explains that President Macron's political turmoil stems from his determination to avoid new elections, fearing defeat by Marine Le Pen's National Rally. Macron's reform agenda failed because he was perceived as an urban elite disconnected from voters and lacked a cohesive free-market vision. Sternberg also addresses Prince Andrew, noting his lack of accountability regarding his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein makes him a permanent liability for the monarchy. 1030-1045 The Financial Flow: China's Role in Fentanyl Money Laundering Josh Birenbaum, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with John Batchelor Birenbaum discusses China's deep involvement in the fentanyl crisis, supplying precursor chemicals and dominating money laundering for Mexican cartels. Chinese money laundering gangs convert cartel dollars into RMB via a triangle system, catering to Chinese nationals who need US dollars outside of China's capital controls. Birenbaum suggests tracking dollars moving within the US and requiring proof of source of wealth for large purchases to disrupt this finance loop. 1045-1100 Geopolitics and Power Shifts: Rare Earths, AUKUS, and CCP Purges Gregory Copley with John Batchelor Copley discusses Australian PM Albanese's US visit, which secured a rare earths agreement leveraging Australia's vast reserves and advanced mining technology. This deal disrupts China's historic control over critical minerals leverage. Copley also analyzes the political purging of general officers during the CCP's Fourth Plenum. This suggests a major power shift, potentially leading to the removal of Xi Jinping, as the military appears to be controlling the party. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Geopolitics and Power Shifts: Rare Earths, AUKUS, and CCP Purges Gregory Copley with John Batchelor Copley discusses Australian PM Albanese's US visit, which secured a rare earths agreement leveraging Australia's vast reserves and advanced mining technology. This deal disrupts China's historic control over critical minerals leverage. Copley also analyzes the political purging of general officers during the CCP's Fourth Plenum. This suggests a major power shift, potentially leading to the removal of Xi Jinping, as the military appears to be controlling the party. 1115-1130 Geopolitics and Power Shifts: Rare Earths, AUKUS, and CCP Purges Gregory Copley with John Batchelor Copley discusses Australian PM Albanese's US visit, which secured a rare earths agreement leveraging Australia's vast reserves and advanced mining technology. This deal disrupts China's historic control over critical minerals leverage. Copley also analyzes the political purging of general officers during the CCP's Fourth Plenum. This suggests a major power shift, potentially leading to the removal of Xi Jinping, as the military appears to be controlling the party. 1130-1145 Geopolitics and Power Shifts: Rare Earths, AUKUS, and CCP Purges Gregory Copley with John Batchelor Copley discusses Australian PM Albanese's US visit, which secured a rare earths agreement leveraging Australia's vast reserves and advanced mining technology. This deal disrupts China's historic control over critical minerals leverage. Copley also analyzes the political purging of general officers during the CCP's Fourth Plenum. This suggests a major power shift, potentially leading to the removal of Xi Jinping, as the military appears to be controlling the party. 1145-1200 Geopolitics and Power Shifts: Rare Earths, AUKUS, and CCP Purges Gregory Copley with John Batchelor Copley discusses Australian PM Albanese's US visit, which secured a rare earths agreement leveraging Australia's vast reserves and advanced mining technology. This deal disrupts China's historic control over critical minerals leverage. Copley also analyzes the political purging of general officers during the CCP's Fourth Plenum. This suggests a major power shift, potentially leading to the removal of Xi Jinping, as the military appears to be controlling the party. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 1215-1230 1230-1245 Germany's Merz Under Pressure Amid Economic and Political Crises Judy Dempsey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, with John Batchelor Dempsey reports German Chancellor candidate Merz is under severe pressure due to a stagnant economy heavily reliant on China and the rise of the far-right AfD. Merz is challenged by internal coalition disagreements, particularly with the SPD over welfare reform. Europe's overall support for Ukraine remains largely rhetorical; arguments over sanctions and frozen Russian assets delay crucial material support needed by Zelensky. 1245-100 AM Germany's Merz Under Pressure Amid Economic and Political Crises Judy Dempsey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, with John Batchelor Dempsey reports German Chancellor candidate Merz is under severe pressure due to a stagnant economy heavily reliant on China and the rise of the far-right AfD. Merz is challenged by internal coalition disagreements, particularly with the SPD over welfare reform. Europe's overall support for Ukraine remains largely rhetorical; arguments over sanctions and frozen Russian assets delay crucial material support needed by Zelensky.

The Financial Flow: China's Role in Fentanyl Money Laundering Josh Birenbaum, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with John Batchelor Birenbaum discusses China's deep involvement in the fentanyl crisis, supplying precursor chemicals and dominating money laundering for Mexican cartels. Chinese money laundering gangs convert cartel dollars into RMB via a triangle system, catering to Chinese nationals who need US dollars outside of China's capital controls. Birenbaum suggests tracking dollars moving within the US and requiring proof of source of wealth for large purchases to disrupt this finance loop.

Kenya and China have reached a groundbreaking agreement to restructure $3.5 billion in railway loans, converting them from U.S. dollars into Chinese yuan. The move could save Kenya $215 million in debt servicing costs and marks the first time an African nation has shifted major sovereign debt into RMB — a potential model for other Global South countries. In this episode, Eric & Géraud unpack what this deal really means for Kenya, China, and the broader narrative around China's “debt-trap diplomacy.” They explore how the agreement challenges old assumptions, what it says about the future of RMB internationalization, and whether other countries — like Indonesia — could follow suit. Chapters: 00:00 – Introduction 02:45 – How the Kenya–China debt swap works 09:30 – Why this deal matters for China's RMB ambitions 15:10 – The myth of the “debt trap” revisited 25:40 – Lessons for other Global South economies 34:00 – Cameroon's shifting trade ties with China and France JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Can you help me make more podcasts? Consider supporting me on Patreon as the service is 100% funded by you: https://EVne.ws/patreon You can read all the latest news on the blog here: https://EVne.ws/blog Subscribe for free and listen to the podcast on audio platforms: ➤ Apple: https://EVne.ws/apple ➤ YouTube Music: https://EVne.ws/youtubemusic ➤ Spotify: https://EVne.ws/spotify ➤ TuneIn: https://EVne.ws/tunein ➤ iHeart: https://EVne.ws/iheart GAC‑TOYOTA BZ7 ELECTRIC SEDAN REVEALED https://evne.ws/4nuECB5 GWM ORA CAT SUV DETAILS REVEALED https://evne.ws/42vWzXM TOYOTA BZ7 ELECTRIC SEDAN NEARING LAUNCH https://evne.ws/3VMgmi2 ($1 = RMB 7.1178) https://evne.ws/3VMgmi2 XIAOMI AUTO AUGUST DELIVERIES AND RANK https://evne.ws/4mfaetu XPENG STARTS LOCAL PRODUCTION IN EUROPE https://evne.ws/4gz8qdB XPENG G7 REEV: SPECS, RANGE, LAUNCH https://evne.ws/4pp84dA XPENG X9 EREV: 1,600 KM COMBINED RANGE https://evne.ws/4mB0El3 YANGWANG U8L: 5.4 M, 1,180 HP SUV https://evne.ws/4miPK35 BYD YANGWANG U8L: KEY SPECIFICATIONS https://evne.ws/4gprnzq CHINA PLANS 180 GW BATTERY STORAGE BY 2027 https://evne.ws/46cjb0w ARCFOX LAUNCHES T1 COMPACT ELECTRIC SUV https://evne.ws/41RHuQd VOYAH "TAISHAN" FLAGSHIP SUV REVEALED https://evne.ws/41TDxdX

Happy Friday! For this week's Roundup, Rob and Yano dive into the recent stablecoin raises (Rain and M0) and explore the exponentially growing industry of prediction markets and discuss what could be beyond PolyMarket and Kalshi. They also touch upon the macro environment, where we are in the cycle and leave some killer content recs.  -- Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from David Canellis.  Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts -- Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod -- Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh -- GEODNET is the world's largest RTK network, delivering real-time, centimeter-level precision for drones, robots, farmers, and first responders. Recognized by the U.S. Congress, this blockchain-powered network supports mission-critical applications across a wide range of industries.  Discover how GEODNET is changing the world: [https://geodnet.com] --  Get up to speed on the biggest stories in crypto each week. In five minutes.  Get the Bitwise Weekly CIO Memo delivered directly to your inbox at bitwiseinvestments.com/ciomemo/empire  -- "Mantle is pioneering ""Blockchain for Banking"" as a revolutionary new category that sits at the intersection of TradFi and web3.   Key elements for Mantle as the ""Blockchain for Banking"":      - Transactions posted to the blockchain     - Compatibility with TradFi rails     - Integrated DeFi features UR, built by Mantle, is the first real-world example: an on-chain money app offering Swiss IBANs and unified access to fiat (EUR, CHF, USD, RMB) and crypto — bringing crypto into everyday finance. Mantle Network, the access layer — transforms Mantle Network into a purpose-built vertical platform — the blockchain for banking — that enables financial services on-chain. Mantle leads the establishment of Blockchain for Banking as the next frontier. Follow Mantle on X (@Mantle_Official) for the latest updates on Mantle as the 'Blockchain for Banking'." -- Citrea is the first zero-knowledge rollup to enhance the capabilities of Bitcoin blockspace and enable Bitcoin applications (₿apps). Citrea is optimistically verified by Bitcoin, offering the most Bitcoin-secured and native way to extend BTC's utility to DeFi.  Learn more about Citrea: https://citrea.xyz/?utm_source=bellcurve&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=website_promo   Follow Citrea on X/Twitter for the latest on its journey to mainnet: https://x.com/citrea_xyz -- Is your treasury losing value to inflation? Learn how to make digital assets like ETH and SOL productive with uncorrelated, protocol-driven staking rewards. A new report from Liquid Collective and EigenCloud outlines a practical guide for CFOs to integrate institutional-grade staking and restaking. Read The Productive Treasury Report: https://liquidcollective.io/corporate-treasury-staking/ -- Chapters: (03:06) Rain (19:36) M0's Rise (25:58) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (27:26) Prediction Markets (47:51) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (49:12) Ads (Mantle, EigenLayer, Citrea) (51:38) DATs priced in? (56:47) Cycle Analysis (01:02:23) Content of the week — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Happy Friday! On this week's Roundup, Yano and Santi are joined by Ro to dive in and explore the signals, indicators and metrics that might or might not point to a top of the cycle. From Chamath's SPAC, borrowing and lending numbers, Kanye meme coins, NFTs and more all provide unique insights into the potential frothy Q4 ahead of us. -- Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from David Canellis.  Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts -- Follow Roshun: https://x.com/roshunpatel Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod -- Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh -- GEODNET is the world's largest RTK network, delivering real-time, centimeter-level precision for drones, robots, farmers, and first responders. Recognized by the U.S. Congress, this blockchain-powered network supports mission-critical applications across a wide range of industries.  Discover how GEODNET is changing the world: [https://geodnet.com] --  Get up to speed on the biggest stories in crypto each week. In five minutes.  Get the Bitwise Weekly CIO Memo delivered directly to your inbox at bitwiseinvestments.com/ciomemo/empire  -- "Mantle is pioneering ""Blockchain for Banking"" as a revolutionary new category that sits at the intersection of TradFi and web3.   Key elements for Mantle as the ""Blockchain for Banking"":      - Transactions posted to the blockchain     - Compatibility with TradFi rails     - Integrated DeFi features UR, built by Mantle, is the first real-world example: an on-chain money app offering Swiss IBANs and unified access to fiat (EUR, CHF, USD, RMB) and crypto — bringing crypto into everyday finance. Mantle Network, the access layer — transforms Mantle Network into a purpose-built vertical platform — the blockchain for banking — that enables financial services on-chain. Mantle leads the establishment of Blockchain for Banking as the next frontier. Follow Mantle on X (@Mantle_Official) for the latest updates on Mantle as the 'Blockchain for Banking'." -- Citrea is the first zero-knowledge rollup to enhance the capabilities of Bitcoin blockspace and enable Bitcoin applications (₿apps). Citrea is optimistically verified by Bitcoin, offering the most Bitcoin-secured and native way to extend BTC's utility to DeFi.  Learn more about Citrea: https://citrea.xyz/?utm_source=bellcurve&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=website_promo   Follow Citrea on X/Twitter for the latest on its journey to mainnet: https://x.com/citrea_xyz -- Chapters: (00:52) Intro (04:01) Top Indicators Explored (25:33) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (27:02) Lending Markets & Leverage (45:55) Private Markets (54:38) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (56:00) Ads (Mantle,Citrea) (57:36) Overlooked Sectors (01:12:30) Content Recs — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.