Podcasts about central banks

On today's show we are talking about a new provision of the latest tax bill that passed the US Congress and is now before the Senate. During the election campaign, President Trump said clearly that he did not favor a central bank digital currency. In fact he has made several statements in support of crypto currencies and his family is active in various crypto initiatives. But it seems that the President may have accidentally created the underlying systems that in fact amount to a CBDC. Whether this is an accident or deliberate is hard to tell. But the effect on the long term freedom and privacy of the citizens of the US is the same. The Federal Reserve Act explicitly prohibits ordinary citizens from having an account at the Fed. In order for a CBDC to be enacted in the US, it would require that aspect of the legislation to be modified. On today's show I'm going to unveil the plumbing that is being created in the system that effectively amounts to a CBDC with direct government oversight.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Why does the economy keep falling into recession, and why don't most economists see it coming? In this thought-provoking conversation, Chris Casey of WindRock Wealth Management breaks down the real cause of recessions: central banks. Drawing on the Austrian School of Economics, Casey argues that artificially low interest rates and explosive monetary expansion fuel malinvestment and set the stage for inevitable downturns. He explains why mainstream economists and even Fed officials often have no coherent theory of the business cycle, and why their repeated interventions actually guarantee the next crisis. Chris and Maggie Lake also walk through the top indicators to watch, like money supply, the yield curve, and credit spreads, and share how investors should position themselves in this uncertain phase of the business cycle. Get to Know Chris Casey: His Journey, Strategy, and Financial Philosophy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2DdcqtoBYs Chapters: 00:17 - The Impact of Recessions on Your Money 01:30 - What Really Sparks a Boom, and a Bust? 05:14 - Why Cyclical Stocks Get Hit the Hardest 07:56 - Why Wall Street Keeps Missing the Big Turns 10:48 - Are Fed Economists Out of Touch with Reality? 13:35 - Is This Time Different, Or Just Déjà Vu? 15:24 - Red Flags: How to Spot a Recession Early 18:47 - Uncle Sam's Spending: Fuel or Fire for the Economy? 20:26 - Do Credit Spreads Still Tell the Truth? 21:23 - Smart Moves: Positioning Your Portfolio Before the Storm 23:14 - The First Assets to Feel the Fed's Pain 24:30 - Beware the Debt Trap: What to Avoid Now 25:44 - Playing Defense: How Much Is Too Much? 27:11 - Can the Fed Actually Prevent the Next Crash? Volatility got you concerned? Get a free portfolio review with WindRock's Chris Casey at https://bit.ly/43rdX11 Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Recession #FederalReserve #AustrianEconomics #InterestRates #EconomicCycle #MoneyPrinting #ChrisCasey #BusinessCycle #Macroeconomics ________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Today's blockchain and crypto news Russian central bank greenlights crypto-derivatives trading for qualified investors Norway's K33 raises $6.2 million to stockpile bitcoin under new treasury play Sol Strategies files to raise up to $1 billion for Solana investments Metalayer Ventures launches $25 million Web3 fund led by ex‑Chainlink, Two Sigma execs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispute-aiding-australian-firmsS&P Global Eurozone PMIs May 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f4672a7ff89744e096c5e9497d2e5362https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week, Swamp Notes goes to London for a live recording. Katie Martin, host of the Unhedged podcast, and Chris Giles, author of the FT's Central Banks newsletter, discuss what Trump's next few months might be like. Have markets truly recovered from the “liberation day” shock? What happens after the 90-day tariff pause is over? Our guests weigh in. Subscribe to the new Swamp Notes feed here.Mentioned in this podcast:Read the latest Chris Giles on Central Banks column hereListen to the Unhedged podcast hereSign up for the FT's Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the acting co-head of audio. Special thanks to Mischa Frankl-Duval and Pierre Nicholson.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US equities declined overnight with all three major benchmarks in the red. The Dow Jones declined 0.58%, the S&P500 down 0.56%, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.51%. S&P500 futures are on the rise after Nvidia posted earnings that beat expectations, its price advancing more than 4% in after-hours trading, so this may mean good news for tech investors today. Keep watch of ASX- listed AI stocks such as WiseTech (ASX:WTC), Xero (ASX:XRO) or NextDC (ASX:NXT).European markets were also in the red, with the STOXX 600 closing 0.61% lower.Locally yesterday, the ASX200 declined 0.13%. Financial and materials took the biggest hit, while energy and real estate were in the lead, following a rise in the consumer price index for April, which was held at 2.4% YoY. The market consensus was for it to slow to 2.3%. The RBA is looking at the data closely to ensure inflation, which is now back in the Central Bank's target band, keeps tracking in the right direction.What to watch today:The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.15% rise at the open this morning.In commodities,Crude oil has advanced 1.43%, currently trading at US$61.94 per barrel, as investors await an OPEC+ meeting expected to decide on increasing oil output. They'll likely approve a 411,000 barrel per day production hike for July, continuing a trend of accelerating supply growth following a similar increase planned for June.The price of gold is down 0.73%, trading at US$3,284.88 an ounce following the Fed's meeting minutes revealing concerns around inflation and labour market weakness.While iron ore is trading steady at US$99.39 per tonne.Trading ideas:Bell Potter see Telstra (ASX:TLS) shares as fully valued. They have maintained a Hold trading on TLS with an improved 12- month price target of $4.65, up 7%.And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $5.68 to the range of $6.90 to $7.90 over 50 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

A free market economy does not generate jobs or money. Instead, it creates wealth through exchange and production. Government intervention, contrary to what mainstream economists believe, does not enhance wealth, but instead destroys it.Original article: Wealth Generation and the Market Economy

A free market economy does not generate jobs or money. Instead, it creates wealth through exchange and production. Government intervention, contrary to what mainstream economists believe, does not enhance wealth, but instead destroys it.Original article: Wealth Generation and the Market Economy

Andy Schectman returns to the program to expose the global power shifts unfolding behind the scenes—shifts that most Americans remain dangerously unaware of. While the media, academia, and elected officials are mostly silent, unelected financial elites are stepping into unprecedented positions of authority. Canada is now led by Mark Carney, a central banker turned Prime Minister, and the Bank for International Settlements is headed by Agustín Carstens, Mexico's former finance minister—a sign that the global economic realignment is being orchestrated far beyond the ballot box.This conversation is part of our ongoing Friday night series, where we pull back the curtain on the forces reshaping the world—and how they will directly impact your financial future and national sovereignty.

Tom Brabazon, Fianna Fáil TD for Dublin Bay North; Laura Harmon, Labour Senator; Charles Ward, 100% Redress TD for Donegal; Tadgh McNally, Political Reporter with the Irish Examiner

The economy weakens and everyone looks to the Fed or any central bank to cut policy rates. But why? They call it stimulus but the real reason is nothing you've ever heard. In fact, Fed officials intentionally lied for decades to keep this quiet. You don't have to take my word for it; hear it from the maestro's mouth as we go down the rabbit hole of interest rates. Eurodollar University's Make it Make CentsFOMC March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Kota, the insurance benefits platform and API, has announced it has raised $14.5m in Series A funding bringing total funding to $22.9 million. The round was led by Eurazeo, along with existing investors EQT Ventures, Northzone, Frontline Ventures and new investors in 9Yards and Plug and Play. The investment will power Kota's mission to make employee benefits globally accessible and frictionless for employees - delivered through its intuitive platform and flexible API. Alongside their Series A, they are also announcing that they've obtained their Central Bank of Ireland Authorisation, making it one of the few technology platforms to be regulated . Kota is rebuilding employee benefits from the ground up. Millions miss out on essentials like pensions and healthcare - not because employers don't care, but because the system is broken. Legacy providers, PDFs, and manual processes make benefits inaccessible and unmanageable. Kota fixes this. Like Revolut did for banking, Kota delivers a modern, user-first experience for employee benefits. It integrates directly with insurers and pension providers, giving employees real-time access and control, and HR teams a single, reliable platform to manage everything. By combining their regulation, infrastructure, and user friendly platform and app, they make benefits effortless for HR & Finance, and engaging for employees. The funding will be used to expand the Kota team, increase the variety of insurance carrier partners in its products, and accelerate customer acquisition. Luke Mackey Founder and CEO said "Employee benefits, which can make up 25% of total compensation, are systematically undervalued and expensive. I experienced this as a founder and a GM -- managing benefits in email, between brokers and insurance companies, completely disconnected and alien from anything else in the business. It's entirely out of date. Ultimately, no one on the team connected or engaged with them, no matter how much we invested. It's not surprising. Insurance benefits are delivered in clunky portals or in PDFs, which is so un engaging compared to the financial experiences employees are used to.Kota integrates directly with insurance companies so we can control that experience and make it easy to roll out and run benefits, no matter who you are or where your team is. This means that employees can quickly understand, enrol, access coverage, retirement plans, or other benefits, and actually value them." Elise Stern from Eurazeo said "Kota really stood out to us. With a tech-first approach, they've built a robust technical and financial infrastructure: deep integrations with insurers across dozens of countries, visibility across the benefits stack, and a seamless API that allows partners - from HRIS to payroll - to embed benefits natively." Since launching in 2023, Kota has helped hundreds of small and medium sized companies seamlessly access, easily manage, along with tens of thousands of employees understand and value their cover. Kota integrates with and offers some of Europe's leading insurance providers, like Vitality in the UK, ONVZ in the Netherlands, Sanitas in Spain, Irish Life Health in Ireland, Allianz Global Care internationally, and many more. Kota powers benefits for Remote.com, and has become the benefits platform of choice for leading scale-ups across Europe such as Zoe Health, Poolside, Carwow, Tines, &Open and Protex AI. Last year, they launched Kota Embed, their embedded insurance offering for HR platforms to make insurance benefits available to their customers without leaving their HRIS or Payroll tool, with customers like Remote, Helios and insurance companies like Irish Life Health as customers. Historically employee benefits have lived offline outside the stack that HR and employees have come accustomed to and are difficult to manage and understand. Employee benefits, while growing into a $70bn market, are still completely unfit for lean, forward-thinking start-ups and scale-ups - parti...

AIB's Economist David McNamara and AIB Treasury's Jonathan Weir discuss the latest macro-economic outlook for the Irish economy, resilience in the consumer and labour market outlooks and geopolitical risks to growth. Read the full  economic the outlook on the AIB FX centre hereVisit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

This week, Swamp Notes goes to London for a live recording. Katie Martin, host of the Unhedged podcast, and Chris Giles, author of the FT's Central Banks newsletter, discuss what Trump's next few months might be like. Have markets truly recovered from the “liberation day” shock? What happens after the 90-day tariff pause is over? Our guests weigh in. Subscribe to the new Swamp Notes feed here. Mentioned in this podcast:Read the latest Chris Giles on Central Banks column hereListen to the Unhedged podcast hereSign up for the FT's Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the acting co-head of audio. Special thanks to Mischa Frankl-Duvall and Pierre Nicholson. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/LT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another major warning, and it isn't too many Treasuries. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Next up this Summer, Kelly talks with bestselling author Moisés Naím about the rise of authoritarianism around the world.  Moisés Naím is an internationally syndicated columnist and best-selling author of several books, including most recently "The Revenge of Power: How Autocrats Are Reinventing Politics for the 21st Century," published in 2023. In the early 1990s, Dr. Naím served as Venezuela's Minister of Trade and Industry, as director of Venezuela's Central Bank, and as executive director of the World Bank. He was previously a professor of business and economics and dean of IESA, Venezuela's leading business school. He now serves as a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His forthcoming book, "Charlatans: How Grifters, Swindlers, and Hucksters Bamboozle the Media, the Markets, and the Masses," is coming out in October 2025. Link to the revenge of power: https://www.amazon.com/Revenge-Power-Autocrats-Reinventing-Politics/dp/1250279208 The opinions expressed in this conversation are strictly those of the participants and do not represent the views of Georgetown University or any government entity. Produced by Theo Malhotra and Freddie Mallinson.  Recorded on April 7, 2025. Diplomatic Immunity, a podcast from the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University, brings you frank and candid conversations with experts on the issues facing diplomats and national security decision-makers around the world. Funding support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. For more, visit our website, and follow us on Linkedin, Twitter @GUDiplomacy, and Instagram @isd.georgetown

It has been another big week in markets. We discuss US fiscal developments and how the Fed might respond as well as preview US inflation data. In focus for the week ahead is also central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, alongside India's growth outlook. In Europe, we discuss recent signs of softening of inflation and why the ECB still has room to cut rates. Chapters: US (01:50), Australia & New Zealand (07:31), India (10:33), Asia (17:19), Europe (18:03). 

We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

AIB's Senior Economist John Fahey and AIB Treasury's Ed Wilson discuss the latest on interest rates, central bank positions and the waiting game for implications of trades tensions on the global economy. Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/While we wait to see if the Swiss National Bank opts for zero or negative policy rates next month, its chief Martin Schlegel had a lot to say yesterday about a range of topics, including negative prices, Treasury bonds, and global risks. Jamie Dimon then today chimed in today cautioning that stocks and risk markets are ready for heightened credit risks. One reason why is volatility in repo, where TIC data shows a huge increasing in offshore resales heading into everything April. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Dimon Warns Markets Are Underestimating Geopolitical, Inflation Riskshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/jpmorgan-s-dimon-warns-against-complacency-amid-mounting-risksBloomberg Swiss Inflation Risks Falling Below Zero in Individual Months This Year, Schlegel Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-chief-sees-subzero-inflation-in-individual-months-this-yearBloomberg SNB President Schlegel Sees No Alternative to US Treasurieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-president-schlegel-sees-no-alternative-to-us-treasuriesBloomberg Singapore Central Bank Chief Says US Dollar Assets Irreplaceablehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-20/singapore-central-bank-chief-says-us-dollar-assets-irreplaceablehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Meanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-marketsS&P Global August 5, 2011https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837Fitch August 1, 2023https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Japan did indeed fall back into recession in the first quarter before the tariff shock even had a chance to hit the economy, and positing a deeper negative GDP print than expected. Like everywhere else, the setback is being led largely by consumers. At the same time, American consumer confidence fell to another shocking low rather than rebound with trade deals and a rebounding stock market. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's still known as Black Tuesday almost a century later. In October 1929, the stock market crashes and plunges the world into the Great Depression. At least that's what we've been told and what we all believe. But then why didn't the Crash of 1987 lead to Great Depression 2? I mean, it didn't even slow the economy down. Or the dot-com crash. Something is missing. As it turns out, there's a lot missing and so this is the first installment to fill in what Economics leaves out, or plain gets wrong. Eurodollar University's Make it Make Centshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Trace Mayer, Bitcoin OG and advocate for monetary sovereignty, joins us for a compelling deep dive into the real-world implications of El Salvador's groundbreaking adoption of Bitcoin. This wasn't a surface-level chat, we covered everything from Bitcoin in El Salvador to the broader global reset many are calling the Fourth Turning.We explored how President Bukele is reshaping El Salvador by combining bold leadership with sound money principles and how Bitcoin fits into that transformation. Trace shares why financial freedom is rooted in individuals taking control of their money, and how El Salvador is providing a real-world test case for that philosophy.We also talk about the risk of centralized financial tools like ETFs, the importance of self-custody through initiatives like Proof of Keys, and how Bitcoin's growing financial infrastructure, especially in derivatives and custody, is shaping the future.Don't forget to subscribe, share this with your favorite fiat-loving friend, and comment below: Would you trust your government to hold Bitcoin for you, or is it safer in your own hands?Learn more about Trace Mayerhttps://www.trace.com/ https://x.com/bitcoinkn Connect with Trace Mayerhttps://x.com/TraceMayer https://www.instagram.com/trace_mayer/ Support and follow Bitcoin Beach:X: @BitcoinBeachIG: @bitcoinbeach_svTikTok: @livefrombitcoinbeachWeb: bitcoinbeach.comBrowse through this quick guide to learn more about the episode:00:00 – Why Trace Mayer Traveled to Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador02:30 – How Trace Mayer Got Into Bitcoin and Monetary Sovereignty06:15 – How Inflation Destroys Sound Money and Everyday Wealth10:40 – What Monetary Sovereignty Really Means in Today's World14:50 – Why El Salvador Adopted Bitcoin for Financial Freedom19:30 – How President Bukele Is Using Bitcoin to Change El Salvador25:40 – Why Proof of Keys Still Matters for Bitcoin Users in 202530:10 – Are Bitcoin ETFs Threatening Real Financial Freedom?37:20 – What the Fourth Turning Means for Bitcoin and the Global Economy45:10 – Can the US Reset Its Economy with Bitcoin, Gold, and the Dollar?47:15 – What Trace Mayer Is Building in the Bitcoin Financial System52:00 – Where to Follow Trace Mayer and Learn About His Latest WorkLive From Bitcoin Beach

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWalmart Q1 earningshttps://corporate.walmart.com/content/dam/corporate/documents/newsroom/2025/05/15/walmart-releases-q1-fy26-earnings/q1-fy26-earnings-release.pdfCNN Walmart warns it will raise prices because of tariffshttps://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/business/walmart-prices-tariffsCNBC Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earningshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.htmlBloomberg US Retail Sales Barely Rise, Suggesting Some Spending Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-retail-sales-barely-rise-suggesting-some-spending-pullbackBloomberg US Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly in April as Margins Shrankhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-producer-prices-fall-unexpectedly-as-margins-declineReuters US manufacturing output falls in April on weak auto productionhttps://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-manufacturing-output-falls-april-weak-auto-production-2025-05-15/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Connect with Onramp // Onramp TerminalMatthew Pines on X // Bitcoin Policy Institute // BPI Policy SummitOnramp Trade: Enter "TLT" during sign-up for Onramp Trade and receive 50% off account fees and zero cost trading through September.The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Brian Cubellis, & Tim Kotzman. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset...in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.00:00 - Introduction to Matthew Pines04:02 - US-Saudi Investment Forum Overview08:09 - Geopolitical Implications of US Foreign Policy18:44 - Monetary Reordering and Dollar Dominance26:55 - Central Banks and Federal Debt Dynamics32:50 - Bitcoin's Role in the Global Monetary System41:59 - The Role of Capital in Strategic Competition44:30 - Covert Operations and Financial Markets46:26 - The Intersection of Bitcoin and National Security48:40 - The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Discussion49:22 - Tipping Points in Bitcoin Policy56:31 - The Future of Bitcoin in U.S. Policy59:26 - Balancing Bitcoin Acquisition and Dollar Confidence01:02:22 - Innovative Financial Mechanisms for Bitcoin Acquisition01:06:55 - Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Disruption01:10:08 - The Overton Window Shift for Bitcoin01:13:54 - Disruptive Advanced Technologies01:16:00 - The Convergence of Bitcoin, AI, and Energy01:18:59 - BPI's Role in Bitcoin Advocacy01:22:52 - The Future of Bitcoin and Decentralization01:24:37 - Outro and DisclaimerPlease subscribe to Onramp Media channels and sign up for weekly Research & Analysis to get access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.

Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problemhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problemRueters China's property 'whitelist' lifeline stutters amid sector gloomhttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-whitelist-lifeline-stutters-amid-sector-gloom-2024-05-14/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Microsoft announced another round of layoffs. Coming from a company that isn't struggling nearly as much as most, it's an ominous sign. The April CPI shows why and not just for Microsoft. It instead aligns with the biggest problem in the economy, and that's not inflation which was absent from the report despite the start of tariffs. A surprise to Economists, but not to BED. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Microsoft laying off about 6,000 people, or 3% of its workforcehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/microsoft-is-cutting-3percent-of-workers-across-the-software-company.htmlBloomberg Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Points to Muted Tariff Fallouthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/us-inflation-comes-in-softer-than-forecast-for-another-monthBLS BED/BDMhttps://www.bls.gov/bdm/bdmover.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Re-risking accelerated on Wall Street and for many other markets; even bond yields rose. The thinking is if trade wars broke everything, then trade deals fix it. However, the US and China don't have one, And that's only the first of several key misimpressions - starting with the 2018 example. Like then, the incoming data doesn't align with "trade wars broke it."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJoint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Genevahttps://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/05/joint-statement-on-u-s-china-economic-and-trade-meeting-in-geneva/Bloomberg US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talkshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/us-and-china-agree-to-major-reductions-in-tariffs-for-90-daysBloomberg Japan Rules Out Trade Deal With US That Excludes Auto Tariffshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/japan-s-ishiba-says-won-t-do-trade-deal-with-us-excluding-autosSCMP China's consumer prices fall in April, fuelling fears of deflationhttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3309834/chinas-consumer-prices-fall-april-fuelling-fears-deflationhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdfTranscript Chair Powell Press Conference May 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfBloomberg Canada Joblessness Hits 6.9% as Tariffs Strike Manufacturinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/canada-adds-7-400-jobs-unemployment-jumps-to-6-9Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2025https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/SPG Canada Manufacturing PMI April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/487ca2cba7784b86aa9d9df3a315d744SPG Canada Services PMI April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c356ce1148c420fbee728307ef2b2dchttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

// GUEST //Websites: https://professorwerner.org/ and https://richardwerner.org/Substack: https://rwerner.substack.com/Book: https://www.quantumpublishers.com/index.htmlX: https://x.com/drrichardwerner and https://x.com/scientificecon // SPONSORS //The Farm at Okefenokee: https://okefarm.com/iCoin: https://icointechnology.com/breedloveHeart and Soil Supplements (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://heartandsoil.co/In Wolf's Clothing: https://wolfnyc.com/Blockware Solutions: https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/breedloveOn Ramp: https://onrampbitcoin.com/?grsf=breedloveMindlab Pro: https://www.mindlabpro.com/breedloveCoinbits: https://coinbits.app/breedlove // PRODUCTS I ENDORSE //Protect your mobile phone from SIM swap attacks: https://www.efani.com/breedloveNoble Protein (discount code BREEDLOVE for 15% off): https://nobleorigins.com/Lineage Provisions (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://lineageprovisions.com/?ref=breedlove_22Colorado Craft Beef (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://coloradocraftbeef.com/ // SUBSCRIBE TO THE CLIPS CHANNEL //https://www.youtube.com/@robertbreedloveclips2996/videos // OUTLINE //0:00 - WiM Episode Trailer1:23 - History of the USD5:46 - History of Tally Sticks11:13 - Interest Rates and Growth25:19 - The Farm at Okefenokee26:29 - iCoin Bitcoin Wallet27:59 - Central Planning and Price Fixing, We Don't Need Central Banks33:45 - The Importance of Sound Money39:52 - Heart and Soil Supplements40:52 - Helping Lightning Startups with In Wolf's Clothing41:44 - Central Planning vs Decentralized Planning51:43 - Nature to be Commanded, Must be Obeyed58:05 - Mine Bitcoin with Blockware Solutions59:31 - Onramp Bitcoin Custody1:00:54 - Has Real Capitalism Ever Been Tried?1:02:01 - The Vikings and European Civilization1:24:07 - Mind Lab Pro Supplements1:25:18 - Buy Bitcoin with Coinbits1:26:28 - The Origins of the Petrodollar1:44:42 - Closing Thoughts and Where to Find Richard // PODCAST //Podcast Website: https://whatismoneypodcast.com/Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-what-is-money-show/id1541404400Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/25LPvm8EewBGyfQQ1abIsERSS Feed: https://feeds.simplecast.com/MLdpYXYI // SUPPORT THIS CHANNEL //Bitcoin: 3D1gfxKZKMtfWaD1bkwiR6JsDzu6e9bZQ7Sats via Strike: https://strike.me/breedlove22Dollars via Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/RBreedloveDollars via Venmo: https://account.venmo.com/u/Robert-Breedlove-2 // SOCIAL //Breedlove X: https://x.com/Breedlove22WiM? X: https://x.com/WhatisMoneyShowLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/breedlove22/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/breedlove_22/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@breedlove22Substack: https://breedlove22.substack.com/All My Current Work: https://linktr.ee/robertbreedlove

Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBank of England MPR May 2025https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/may-2025FOMC Chair May 2025 press conferencehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oX4RCJJXAMhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Entire Interview. Tucker Carlson, Catherine Fitts: Bankers vs. the West, Secret Underground Bases, and the Oncoming Extinction Event.  Former Bush administration official Catherine Austin Fitts on how America's leaders gave up on the country in the 1990s, began stealing trillions and built a digital prison to control the population. Tucker Carlson 1.06M followers 5.33K39 Streamed on Apr 28, 2025 424K News #TuckerCarlson #CatherineAustinFitts #centralbankdigitalcurrency #banking #finance #apocalypse #AI #space #debt #housingcrisis #inflation #money #news #politics #podcast Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:11 The Attempts to Control the World's Currency 12:09 The Two Things That Lead to Inflation 16:17 Central Bankers vs. the West 25:01 What You Should Know About the Bank of International Settlements 29:48 The Banker's Plan to Conquer Space 32:27 Are We Approaching an Extinction Event? 35:57 Secret Underground Bases All Across the US 44:49 The Government's Secret Energy Sources 56:42 Who Are the Masterminds Behind the Central Banks? 58:26 The Real Reason American Universities Are Failing 1:06:25 The Global Depopulation Plan 1:13:20 The Housing Crisis 1:24:40 How to Stay Joyful in Dark Times 1:25:37 The Missing $21 Trillion 1:30:30 America's Debt Is a Symptom of Something Much Bigger 1:39:36 Global Money Laundering 1:45:06 Where Can People Learn More About This?

The Fed left its key interest rate unchanged again Wednesday and gave no hint it plans to lower it soon.Commercial Appeal Criminal Justice Reporter Lucas Finton has the latest from Memphis after former police officers were found not guilty of murder in the beating death of Tyre Nichols. All three former officers were separately convicted in federal court and still face time in federal prison.A nonpartisan analysis said millions of Americans could lose Medicaid health insurance coverage under different Republican Congressional proposals to cut spending.Airline CEOs rally behind Trump's air traffic control plan.USA TODAY Education Reporter Zach Schermele discusses how some think China could benefit from Trump defunding university research.Today is VE Day, marking 80 years since the end of the European theater in World War II.Let us know what you think of this episode by sending an email to podcasts@usatoday.com.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast their blame specifically toward banks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Short Sellers Bet Against Private Credit Lendershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-03/short-sellers-bet-against-private-credit-lenders-credit-weeklyIMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2025https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/04/22/global-financial-stability-report-april-2025IMF Private Credithttps://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/08/fast-growing-USD2-trillion-private-credit-market-warrants-closer-watchhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Welcome to The Golden Rule Show — your weekly deep dive into all things money.

Today David talks to political and economic theorist Leah Downey about the role that central banks in general – and the Federal Reserve in particular – have played in the story of globalisation. How has the Fed tried to reconcile its obligations to American democracy with its obligations to the global order? Is the Eurodollar a token of American strength or American vulnerability? Are the world's central bankers really just a private club? And what does history tell us about the likely outcome of Trump vs Powell? The latest edition of our free fortnightly newsletter is out tomorrow with guides, insights and clips to accompany this series, plus David writes about whether Nigel Farage really spells the end of two-party politics in the UK. Sign up now https://www.ppfideas.com/newsletters Next time on Ideas of Globalisation: The Crisis of the 1970s (and Trump!) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201402.pdfMSCI The CDS Market's View on US Defaulthttps://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/the-cds-market-s-view-on-us/03820087801Bloomberg Oaktree Co-CEO Sees Private Credit Trades as Low as 50 Centshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-02/oaktree-s-o-leary-says-deep-discounts-arising-in-private-credithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The central banks are hoarding this asset while they wait for Trump's next move! In the meantime, Warren Buffett's announced his official retirement and his handoff of leadership to Greg Abel. We talk Buffett's post-2000 investment choices, the reasons he may have avoided buying Microsoft despite his close friendship with Bill Gates, and the challenges of managing massive capital. The hosts also touch on Buffett's preference for capital-efficient, moat-heavy businesses and his indirect exposure to Microsoft through index holdings. We also discuss recent economic news, negative GDP print driven by rising inventories and reduced government spending. We discuss...  Warren Buffett officially announced his retirement, passing leadership to Greg Abel. Buffett's consistent outperformance over decades, despite criticisms of his recent picks. Buffett's size as an investor was cited as a limitation, forcing him to seek only very large investments. The recent negative GDP print, noting concerns around economic slowdown. Inventory buildup ahead of Trump-era tariffs artificially skewed GDP figures. Net exports and reduced government spending are key contributors to the negative GDP number. Consumer spending was also shown to have slowed, adding to concerns about potential recession signals. A sharp drop in consumer spending could be a clear economic indicator of a downturn. Business investment surged after Trump's election due to economic optimism but has since stalled amid uncertainty Many business owners are holding back on investment due to a lack of visibility under the current administration. Shipping delays from China can take 30 days, meaning tariff effects won't be felt immediately but are now becoming visible. A drop in container orders from China suggests supply chain disruptions are already underway. The "bullwhip effect" explains how small supply chain changes can cause large swings in inventory and pricing. Warren Buffett is still sitting on significant cash, possibly anticipating better buying opportunities amid market volatility. A coming inventory crunch could cause inflation as demand outstrips constrained supply. Post-COVID rebounds in same-store sales distort trend lines and may create false signals. The official CPI of 21% over five years doesn't align with real-world price experiences, suggesting data manipulation. Government inflation numbers may be inaccurate or understated, leading to misguided investing decisions. Investors should rely on personal experience and intuition—the “bullshit detector”—instead of blindly trusting official data.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/central-banks-are-hoarding-this-asset-711

// GUEST //X: https://x.com/ericyakesWebsite: https://epochvc.io/ // SPONSORS //The Farm at Okefenokee: https://okefarm.com/iCoin: https://icointechnology.com/breedloveHeart and Soil Supplements (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://heartandsoil.co/In Wolf's Clothing: https://wolfnyc.com/Blockware Solutions: https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/breedloveOn Ramp: https://onrampbitcoin.com/?grsf=breedloveMindlab Pro: https://www.mindlabpro.com/breedloveCoinbits: https://coinbits.app/breedlove // PRODUCTS I ENDORSE //Protect your mobile phone from SIM swap attacks: https://www.efani.com/breedloveNoble Protein (discount code BREEDLOVE for 15% off): https://nobleorigins.com/Lineage Provisions (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://lineageprovisions.com/?ref=breedlove_22Colorado Craft Beef (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://coloradocraftbeef.com/ // SUBSCRIBE TO THE CLIPS CHANNEL //https://www.youtube.com/@robertbreedloveclips2996/videos // OUTLINE //0:00 - WiM Episode Trailer1:33 - Eric's Professional Background5:53 - The Dimensions of Money12:55 - Centralized Power and Bitcoin19:55 - The Farm at Okefenokee21:21 - iCoin Technology22:51 - Evolution is Biological Innovation30:58 - Is Money Subjective or Objective?33:59 - Bitcoin and Trust42:17 - Heart and Soil Supplements43:17 - Helping Lightning Startups with In Wolf's Clothing44:09 - Free Banking vs the State55:23 - Bitcoin: Perfect Information1:10:24 - The Addiction of Money Printing1:13:48 - Mine Bitcoin with Blockware Solutions1:15:14 - Onramp Bitcoin Custody1:17:11 - The Corruption of Academia and Central Banking 1:18:30 - Bitcoin's Global Energy Bounty Program1:22:43 - The Physics and Morality of Bitcoin1:32:18 - Mind Lab Pro Supplements1:33:28 - Buy Bitcoin with Coinbits1:34:56 - Wisdom, Religion, and Tradition1:49:25 - Inventing the Individual1:57:08 - Bitcoin and Enlightenment2:05:35 - Where to Find Eric Yakes // PODCAST //Podcast Website: https://whatismoneypodcast.com/Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-what-is-money-show/id1541404400Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/25LPvm8EewBGyfQQ1abIsERSS Feed: https://feeds.simplecast.com/MLdpYXYI // SUPPORT THIS CHANNEL //Bitcoin: 3D1gfxKZKMtfWaD1bkwiR6JsDzu6e9bZQ7Sats via Strike: https://strike.me/breedlove22Dollars via Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/RBreedloveDollars via Venmo: https://account.venmo.com/u/Robert-Breedlove-2 // SOCIAL //Breedlove X: https://x.com/Breedlove22WiM? X: https://x.com/WhatisMoneyShowLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/breedlove22/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/breedlove_22/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@breedlove22Substack: https://breedlove22.substack.com/All My Current Work: https://linktr.ee/robertbreedlove

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central bank is looking at zero rates next month - if not negative given what both these currencies are doing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Hong Kong Dollar Tests Strong End of Trading Band for Second Dayhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-05/hong-kong-dollar-tests-strong-end-of-trading-band-for-second-dayhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Morgan Stanley Research analyst Mark Schmidt and Investment Management's Craig Brandon discuss the heightened uncertainty in the U.S. municipal bonds market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.For a full list of episode disclosures click here.----- Transcript -----Mark Schmidt: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mark Schmidt, Morgan Stanley's Head of Municipal Strategy.Craig Brandon: I'm Craig Brandon, Co-Director of Municipal Investments at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Mark Schmidt: Today, let's talk about the biggest market you hardly ever hear about – municipal bonds, a $4 trillion asset class.It's Monday, May 5th at 10am in Boston.Mark Schmidt: If you've driven, flown, gone to school or turned on a tap, chances are munis made it happen. Although munis are late cycle haven, they were not immune to the latest bout of market volatility. Craig, why was April so tough?Craig Brandon: So, what we say in April, it was sort of the trifecta of things that happened that were a little different than other asset classes. The first thing that happened is we saw a significant increase in treasury rates – and munis are generally correlated to treasuries. We're a very high-quality asset class, that's viewed as a duration asset class. So, one thing we saw were rates going up. When we see rates going up, you generally see money coming out of the market, right? So, I think investors were a little bit impacted by the higher rates, the correlation to treasuries, the duration, and saw some flows out of the market.Secondly, what we saw is conversation about the tax exemption in Washington D.C. What that did is it caused muni issuers to pull their issuance forward. So, if you're an infrastructure issuer, you are issuing bonds in the next year to year and a half; you're going to pull that forward because if there's any risk of loss of the tax exemption, you want to get these bonds issued today. So that's basically what drives technicals. It's supply and demand. So, what we saw was a decrease in demand because of higher rates; an increase in supply because of issuance being pulled forward.And the third part of the trifecta we refer to is the conversations about the economy. So, I would put that, it's sort of a distant third, but there's still conversations about maybe credit weakness driven by a slowing economy.Mark Schmidt: Craig, your team has been through a lot of tough market cycles. Given your experience, how did the most recent selloff compare? And why was it not like 2008?Craig Brandon: I started my career back in 1998 during the long-term capital management crisis. I lived through 2008. I lived through the COVID crisis, and you know, really when I look at the crisis in 2008 – no banks went out of business three weeks ago, right? In 2008 we were really sitting on a trading desk wondering where this was going to end.You know, we had a number of meetings with our staff, over the last couple weeks explaining to them why it was different and how. Yes, there was some volatility here, but you could see that there was going to be an end to this, and this was not going to be a permanent restructuring of the market. So, I think we felt comfortable. It was very different than 2008 and it really felt different than COVID.Mark Schmidt: That's reassuring. But with economic growth set to slow sharply, how does your credit team think the fiscal health of America's state and local governments will hold up?Craig Brandon: Well, remember state and local governments, and when we're talking about munis, we're also talking about other infrastructure asset classes like water and sewer bonds. Like, you know, transportation, bonds, airports. We're talking about toll roads.They went into this with a very strong balance sheet, right? Remember, there was a lot of infrastructure money spent by the federal government during COVID to give issuers money to make it through COVID. There's still a lot of money on balance sheets. So, what we do is we're going into this crisis with a lot of cash on balance sheets, allowing issuers to be able to withstand some weakness in the economy and get through to the other side of this.Mark Schmidt: Not only do state and local governments have a lot of cash, but they're just not that impacted by tariffs, right? So why did muni yields perform worse than U.S. treasuries over the past couple of weeks?Craig Brandon: Right. It really… We're technically driven, right? The U.S. muni market is more retail driven than some other asset classes. Remember – investment grade corporates, treasury bonds, there's a lot of institutional buyers in those markets. In the municipal market, it's primarily retail driven.So, when you know, individual retail investors get nervous, they tend to pull money out of the market. So, what we saw was money coming out of the market. At the same time, we saw an individual increase in more bonds, which just led to very weak technicals, which when we see that it eventually reverses itself.Mark Schmidt: Now I almost buried the lede, right? Why invest in munis? Well, they're great credit quality, but they're also tax free. In fact, muni bonds have been exempt from federal taxes for over a century. You have a lot of experience putting together tax bills, and right now people are worried about tax reform. Do you think investors should be concerned?Craig Brandon: Listen. I'm not really losing a lot of sleep at night over the tax exemption. And I think there's other, you know, issues to worry about. Why do I say that?As you mentioned Mark, I spent the early years of my career working for the New York State Assembly Ways and Means Committee. I spent seven years negotiating budgets and what that did is it gave me a window – into how, you know, not only state budgets, but the federal budget gets put together.So, what it also showed me was the relationship between state and local elected officials and your representatives in Congress and your representatives in the Senate. So, I know firsthand that members of Congress and members of the Senate in Washington have very close relationships with members of the state legislatures, with governors, with mayors, with city council members, with school board members – who are all delivering the message that significantly higher financing costs that could potentially happen from the loss of the exemption, could be meaningful to them.And I think members of Congress and members of the Senate and Washington get it. They understand it because they were all there when it happened. The last time the muni exemption came under fire was back in 2012; and in 2012, a lot of members of Congress were in the state legislature back then, so they understand it.Mark Schmidt: That's reassuring because right now, tax equivalent yields in the muni market are 7 to 8 per cent. That's equal to or greater than the long run rate of return on the stock market. So, whether to invest in the muni market seems pretty straightforward. How to invest in the muni market? Well, with 50,000 issuers, that's a little complicated. How do you recommend investors get exposure to tax-free munis right now?Craig Brandon: Well, and that is a very common question. The muni market can be very confusing because there are just so many bonds out there. You know, over 50,000 issuers, there's over a million individual CUSIPs in the muni market.So as an individual investor, where do you start? There's different coupon structures, different call structures, different maturity structures, ratings. There's so many different variables that go into a decision in investing in muni bonds.I can make an argument that you could probably mimic the S&P 500 with 500 different stocks. But most muni indices are over 50,000 constituents. It's very difficult to replicate the muni market by yourself, which is why a lot of people, you know, they let professional money managers, do the investing for them. Whether you're looking at mutual funds, whether you're looking at separately managed accounts, whether you're looking at exchange traded fund ETFs, there's a lot of different ways to get exposure to the muni market. But with the huge amount of choices you have to make, I think a lot of individual investors would just let a professional with the experience do it.Mark Schmidt: And active managers let you customize portfolios to your unique tax situation and risk tolerance. So, Craig, a final question for you. How do munis fit into a diversified portfolio?Craig Brandon: Munis are generally the stable part of most people's portfolios. Remember, you don't have a choice of whether you're going to pay your taxes or not. You have to pay your taxes, you have to pay your water bill, you have to pay your power bill. You have to pay tolls on highways. You have to pay airport fees when you buy an airline ticket, right?It's not an option. So, because the revenue streams are so stable, you see most muni bonds rated AA or AAA. The default rate for rated munis is significantly below 1 per cent. It's something in the ballpark of about 0.2 per cent*. So, with such a low default rate – listen, we're technically driven, as I said. You see ups and downs in the market. But over a longer period of time, munis can give you generally stable returns, tax exempt income over the long term, and they're one of the more stable asset classes that you see in your overall portfolio.Mark Schmidt: That sounds boring, and I mean that in the best possible way. Craig, thanks so much for your time today.Craig Brandon: Thanks, Mark, happy to be hereMark Schmidt: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*“US Municipal Bond Defaults and Recoveries, 1970-2021” – Moody's Investor ServicesDisclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The returns referred to in the commentary are those of representative indices and are not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.Risk ConsiderationsDiversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. 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The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

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If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is itself shifting to recession economics.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/bessent-says-two-year-treasuries-are-signaling-fed-should-cutBloomberg Understanding the Unlikely Saudi Push for Lower Oil Priceshttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/opec-puzzle-understanding-the-saudi-push-for-lower-oil-pricesCNN McDonald's just had its worst quarter since Covid. It said customers are getting nervoushttps://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU