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2 episodes with bonnie glaser
2 episodes with bonnie glaser
2 episodes with bonnie glaser
2 episodes with bonnie glaser
Critical minerals are required for the manufacturing of electronics, aerospace equipment, medical devices, and renewable energy technologies, making them essential for a country's economic and national security. These materials have been at the center of China's domestic and foreign policy for many decades, and China's ability to integrate internal industrial policies with foreign trade and investment policies has allowed them to gain dominance in the market. Meanwhile, the US has lagged behind China in terms of both access to and processing technology of critical minerals. The country has been heavily dependent on China for its critical minerals and struggles to find an alternative supplier.China's announcement to impose export restrictions on seven rare earth elements on April 4th has opened many conversations surrounding critical minerals, especially regarding the US and its supply chain vulnerabilities. What has China done to achieve their global dominance in the critical minerals sector, and what can the US do to address the overdependence issue they are facing today? To answer these questions and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a mining economist whose area of expertise is critical minerals and trade. Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:13] US Dependencies on Rare Earths and Critical Minerals[03:51] Sourcing from Latin America, Africa, and Asia[06:28] Environmental Harm from Mining and Processing[08:11] Deliberate Suppression of the Price of Rare Earths in the Market[11:06] Chinese Exports Restrictions on Seven Rare Earth Elements[14:08] US Administrations' Approaches to Critical Minerals Vulnerability[20:02] 2010 Fishing Boat Accident and Japan's Response [24:00] What might China do moving forward? [27:42] Timeframe for the US to Catch Up to China
In an episode originally released by The German Marshall Fund's China Global Podcast with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of GMF's Indo-Pacific program, co-host Ray Powell was interviewed about recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China's broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm.---This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea.Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China's broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University's Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force.
This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea.Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China's broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University's Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:43] Strategic Significance of the Yellow Sea[03:12] Expanding Chinese Control in the Region[04:08] Chinese Maritime Installations [05:20] Are these installations found in other regions?[06:00] Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea [08:20] Maritime Militia Activity in the Yellow Sea[09:02] 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement[10:34] Testing the Waters with South Korea[12:09] Navigating South Korean Policy Dilemmas[13:48] Rehabilitating China's Imagine in Korea[15:14] Environmental Issues in Disputed Waters[17:18] Countering Chinese Activities in the Yellow Sea[19:40] SeaLight Tracking and Deciphering Chinese Actions
The year 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of China's Digital Silk Road, which has become an increasingly crucial component of Xi Jinping's flagship foreign policy project: the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the past decade, China has massively expanded its digital infrastructure investment across the globe. Accompanying the investment has been the diffusion of China's digital governance norms and standards in recipient states. Countries in the Indo-Pacific have been at the forefront of this stretching Chinese digital influence landscape. The conflation between digital development cooperation and digital governance norms adoption has far-reaching implications that need to be better understood and addressed. To discuss the issue, Michael Caster joins host Bonnie Glaser. Caster is the Head of Global China Programmeat ARTICLE 19, an NGO that advances freedom of opinion and expression. His organization has published two reports examining China's Digital Silk Road. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:30] Understanding China's Digital Silk Road [05:57] China's Digital Governance Norms[10:16] China's Digital Footprints Abroad[16:07] Attractiveness of Chinese Digital Solutions[18:56] Role of High-Tech Companies in Digital Governance[21:44] Assessing the Effectiveness of China's Digital Governance[23:14] State-Driven Surveillance and Censorship[27:39] China's BeiDou Navigation System [31:09] How should governments respond to these normative shifts?
Nuclear weapons have changed the nature of modern warfare and exerted a profound impact on international politics. The Cold War logic of nuclear deterrence maintains that nuclear-armed states will not attack one another because of fear of massive retaliation, or mutually assured destruction. By this logic, nuclear weapons promote stability and can prevent war.At the same time, however, nuclear weapons created a new dilemma. That is: “How can a state achieve its political objectives through military force without triggering a catastrophic nuclear exchange?”This is a dilemma faced by all countries, especially nuclear powers. States have responded differently to this dilemma. What is China's answer to this strategic dilemma? What has Beijing been doing to gain strategic leverage? How should we evaluate the success of China's approach so far?These issues are the subject of a new book titled Under the Nuclear Shadow: China's Information Age Weapons in International Security. The author, Fiona Cunningham, joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode. Fiona is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. She is also a Faculty Fellow at Perry World House and affiliated with the Center for the Study of Contemporary China and the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:59] How do countries cope with the limited war dilemma?[04:00] China's Approach of Strategic Substitution[07:24] Adoption of this Third Approach[11:23] Utilizing Information-Age Weapons[15:49] From Brinksmanship to Calibrated Escalation[21:21] Understanding China's No First Use Posture[26:27] Following China's Model [30:42] An American Response
In the past decade, China has ramped up its engagement in the Middle East, a region which is far from China geographically, but carries growing importance in China's foreign policy. Economically, China is the biggest importer of the Middle East oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Chinese state-owned enterprises have invested heavily in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative with an emphasis on physical and digital infrastructure, including telecommunications, 5G connectivity, submarine optic cables, and security information systems. Diplomatically, China played a role in brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two longstanding regional rivals. Beijing has also been instrumental in expanding the BRICS multilateral mechanism to include four Middle East countries. Securing access to vital natural resources is a key driver of Beijing's intensified engagement in the Middle East. But China's interests are broader and encompass economic, geopolitical and strategic considerations.To further discuss China's interests and evolving role in the Middle East, Michael Schuman joins host Bonnie Glaser. Michael is a nonresident senior fellow at the Global China Hub of the Atlantic Council and an author and journalist with more than 25 years of on-the-ground experience in Asia. He is the co-author of a recently published report by the Atlantic Council titled China's Middle East policy shift from ‘hedging' to ‘wedging.' Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:06] China's Interest in the Middle East[04:23] Evaluating China's Strategy of “Wedging” [06:51] Evaluating China's Position of Neutrality[10:17] Factors Driving China's Middle Eastern Strategy [13:46] Chinese Bilateral and Multilateral Engagement [16:08] China's Energy Ties with the Middle East[19:41] Implications for the United States[24:19] Limits to Chinese Engagement
The Global South is a term that covers a broad swath of developing countries and emerging economies in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania. It is a grouping of over 130 heterogenous countries that is pushing to enhance its voice in global decision making. China, which self-identifies as a leader of the developing world, has a long history of engaging with the developing world. Under Xi Jinping, Beijing has deepened its ties with Global South countries through economic investment, diplomatic engagement, and security cooperation. Meanwhile, developed countries from the wealthier and more industrialized Global North are stepping up efforts to counter Chinese influence and win support from Global South countries. What are China's interests in the Global South? What are the key strategies and tactics that Beijing utilizes to influence and engage with those countries? How have countries in the Global South responded to China's influence? And how will intensified Sino-American rivalry impact developing countries in the future? To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Mr. Masaaki Yatsuzuka, Senior Research Fellow at the China Division of the Regional Studies Department at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Japan (NIDS). He is the co-author of the recently published report titled “The Rising Global South and China.” Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:55] Resurgent Interest in the Global South [04:28] Engaging Developing Countries[06:51] Economic Tools and Mechanisms to Exert Influence[08:55] Motivation for Expanding Military Presence [12:33] Perceptions of China in the Global South [15:07] Why does China's involvement in the Global South matter? [17:39] US-China Competition Impacting the Global South[19:00] India, Brazil, and Other Rising Powers[20:35] Tokyo's Concerns Over China's Influence [22:41] Response to Increased Attention Paid to Developing Countries[24:37] China's Reaction to the Trump Administration
Space, once a distant destination, has become yet another battleground for great power competition. Since the early days of the People's Republic of China, the country has been pursuing a series of ambitious space programs aimed to build up its space capacity as an essential element of its comprehensive national power. In recent years, under the Xi Jinping regime, Beijing has significantly increased its investment in its civilian space program efforts. It has a plan to send Chinese Taikonauts to the Moon before the US can return. As the US-China strategic competition continues to heighten, it is vital to assess China's space policy and its role in China's grand strategy. To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dean Cheng, senior advisor to the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a nonresident fellow with George Washington University's Space Policy Institute. Dean focuses on China's space program, Chinese military doctrine, and “dual-use” issues associated with China's scientific and technical enterprises. He also recently published a book titled China and the New Moon Race. Timestamp[00:00] Start[01:54] Space Race 2.0[03:27] Space in China's Grand Strategy[05:27] Achievements of China's Space Program[07:18] Similarities and Differences in China's Approach[09:14] Nature of Public-Private Cooperation in China[12:42] Implications of Landing on the Moon[15:30] A Chinese Incident in Space[17:00] International Lunar Research Station [18:50] Responses to China's Space Ambitions[21:03] Problems in the US-China Civilian Space Race[23:20] Stars and Stripes on Mars
Mike hosts Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director for the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program, and co-author of the recent book US-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis? (Brookings Press, April 2023) to discuss China, Taiwan and expectations for the near future.
When this episode goes live four days from now, Donald Trump will have been sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, after having served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.Many countries around the world are closely watching to identify changes in US policy and assess their impact. China is one of those countries. As presidential candidate Donald Trump threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States. He also proposed revoking China's Most Favored Nation trading status and banning China from buying US farmland. He pledged to curtail Chinese espionage and theft of intellectual property. On some occasions Trump praised Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and predicted that they would get along very well. In the past few months, Trump and Xi have been in communication through their representatives.What approach will Beijing take toward Trump's presidency this time around? Is China in a stronger or weaker position than it was in during Trump's first term? What is the likely trajectory of US-China relations in the coming four years?To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, who is the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies at Georgetown University. He served seven years in President Obama's NSC first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:00] Lessons Beijing Learned from Trump's First Term [04:11] Perceptions on the Balance of Economic Power [07:30] China's Reaction to American Tariffs[09:39] China Hurting the United States without Hurting Itself[11:48] Starting Anew with the Trump Administration [13:38] An Early US-China Meeting[16:46] An Inverse Bilateral Relationship [18:56] China Helping with the War in Ukraine[25:18] Chinese Use of Force Against Taiwan [29:22] US Alliances Under the Trump Administration[35:00] What worries Evan Medeiros in the US-China relationship?
In June 2020, Indian and Chinese forces engaged in a deadly clash along their disputed border in the Ladakh region. It was the deadliest confrontation since the 1962 war. Subsequently, bilateral ties between India and China deteriorated to their lowest level in decades. In recent months, however, China-India ties have begun to thaw.Last October, India and China struck a border patrol deal. Indian Prime Minister Modi and China's leader Xi Jinping subsequently met at the BRICS summit in Kazan—their first meeting in five years. That was followed by a round of talks by their top officials just a few weeks ago.To discuss the status and trajectory of India-China relations, including how the second Trump presidency and other geopolitical developments are likely to influence that relationship, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Tanvi Madan. Tanvi is a senior fellow in the Center for Asia Policy Studies in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She is author of the book “Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War.” Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:45] October 2024 Border Patrol Deal[06:40] Impetus for Stabilizing the Sino-Indian Relations[10:50] Assessment of Wang Yi-Ajit Doval Meeting [15:26] Reviving Confident-Building Measures (CBMs)[20:30] Overstating the Thaw in Sino-Indian Relations[25:54] Bilateral Trade Volume and Economic Relations[31:58] India-China Relations Moving Forward
China's push to revise the international security order entered a new phase with the launch of the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022. A few months after Xi Jinping proposed GSI, host Bonnie Glaser did a podcast episode with Manoj Kewalramani to discuss the drivers behind GSI and analyze the initial statements outlining its content. More than 2 ½ years have elapsed since then, and scholars have begun to investigate how China is implementing GSI in various regions around the world. A new report from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) examines how GSI is being operationalized and received in two priority regions of Chinese foreign policy: mainland Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The study draws on field research in both regions. The report is titled “China's Global Security Initiative Takes Shape in Southeast and Central Asia.” The report has three authors: Bates Gill, Carla Freeman and Alison McFarland. Bonnie Glaser is joined by Bates Gill for this episode to discuss the report's findings. Bates is a senior fellow with the National Bureau of Asian Research, a Senior Associate Fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, and associated with USIP.Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:53] Objectives of China's Global Security Initiative [04:22] GSI as an Additive or a Replacement[07:21] Fieldwork in Southeast and Central Asia[12:06] Concerns about China's Intentions and Influence[15:24] GSI Initiatives and Sources of Funding[19:58] GSI and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation[23:55] Moscow's View of GSI [29:27] Implications of GSI for the United States
The BRICS+ summit was held in the Russian city of Kazan this past October. The original BRICS comprised four countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The first meeting that they held was in 2009. South Africa joined in 2011. BRICS has now grown to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The recent summit also invited 13 countries to the group as partner states. Countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS include Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand (which is a U.S. treaty ally), and Turkey (which is a member of NATO).As countries in the Global South flock to form an increasingly significant geopolitical bloc in which China has assumed a leading role, it is important to understand how BRICS+ fits into China's foreign policy strategy and the role that the BRICS mechanism is likely to play going forward. To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center which is based in Berlin. His research focuses on Chinese and Russian foreign policy. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:37] Behind the Creation of BRICS[04:08] BRICS+ in China's Foreign Policy Objectives[06:20] Domination of China in BRICS+[09:13] Russian and Chinese Interest in BRICS+[14:16] China and the Expansion of BRICS[18:07] Noteworthiness of the Kazan Declaration[21:10] Possibility of a BRICS Currency[28:11] BRICS+ and U.S. Policy Under Donald Trump[30:26] Responding to BRICS+ and a Multipolar World
China is the world's largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, accounting for one-third of global CO2 emissions. One of its biggest sources of emissions is coal, which plays a central role in China's economy. At the same time, however, China is the world's leading supplier of renewable energy, largely due to significant government investments in green technologies, including solar manufacturing, batteries, and minerals. In September 2020, China's leader Xi Jinping announced the goal of achieving peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.” This ambitious pledge, if realized, will be an important step in global efforts to limit global warming.In the past few years, the increasingly competitive and fraught relationship between the United States and China has spilled into the climate domain, threatening the potential for both countries to work together to address climate change. That is the topic of a recent commentary co-authored by Margaret Pearson and Michael Davidson. The paper is titled, “Where are the US and China on addressing climate change?”, and it can be found on the Brookings Institution website. In this episode of China Global, host Bonnie Glaser speaks with one of the authors, Michael Davidson, who is an assistant professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of the Jacobs School of Engineering at the University of California San Diego. Timestamps[01:57] China's Approach to Addressing Climate Change[04:26] Considerations Behind China's Climate Policy [07:37] Doubling Down on Coal Domestically[10:34] Evaluating China's Progress Toward Carbon Neutrality[14:42] Security and China's Climate Change Policy[19:13] China's International Climate Cooperation[22:45] US-China Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action [30:27] The Green Belt and Road Initiative
For many years, China's nuclear doctrine was widely described as “minimum nuclear deterrence,” which essentially means that it relied on a limited number of nuclear weapons to deter an adversary from attacking. China's authoritative defense white papers asserted that China sought to maintain a lean, effective and credible deterrent force, was committed to the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons, pursued a defensive nuclear strategy and would never enter into a nuclear arms race with any other country. In recent years, however, China has begun to expand and modernize its nuclear forces. Beijing is not transparent about its nuclear arsenal or its doctrine, however, which creates uncertainty for the United States and its allies.To help us decipher Beijing's rapid nuclear expansion, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by John Culver, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub and a former CIA senior intelligence officer. He is a co-author of a recent report published by the Atlantic Council titled “Adapting US Strategy to Account for China's Transformation into a Peer Nuclear Power.” Episode Highlights[1:55] Key identifiable changes in China's nuclear forces [3:49] China's nascent nuclear triad [6:51] The drivers of China's nuclear expansion [11:00] The recent ICBM test and its implications [14:50] How China might use its nuclear weapons [18:43] Will China change its nuclear declaratory policy[24:59] How China's relationship with Russia could shape Beijing's calculous [27:45] How the U.S. and its allies should respond
There are many writings by Western scholars on Chinese foreign as well as domestic policy. Yet few have ventured to analyze the internal intellectual debates in China that, either partly or significantly, shape Chinese policymaking. A recent book from the European Council on Foreign Relations titled The Idea of China: Chinese Thinkers on Power, Progress, and People, intends to fill that gap. Written by Alicja Bachulska, Mark Leonard, and Janka Oertel, the book presents some of the leading Chinese perspectives on a range of contemporary global as well as domestic issues. To help us further understand Chinese thinking and its significance, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Alicja Bachulska, one of the co-authors of the book and a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Timestamps[01:22] Significance of Intellectual Debates in China[04:31] Gauging the Candor of Interview Responses[06:35] Who are the China solutionists? [08:25] Examining the “Great Changes” Taking Place[11:52] Strengthening China's Discourse Power[15:22] Where is China successfully shaping narratives?[18:05] China on the Defense or Offense[22:36] Rising East, Declining West[28:49] Responding to Chinese Discourse in the Global South
The Forum on China–Africa Cooperation, or FOCAC, was established in 2000 as a platform for facilitating multilateral cooperation between the People's Republic of China and countries in Africa. A FOCAC summit is held every three years and is the occasion to issue joint declarations and a three-year China-Africa program plan. The 2024 FOCAC took place in Beijing from September 4th to September 6th under the theme “Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future.” Heads of state and delegations from 53 African countries attended the forum, which made it the largest diplomatic event held by China this year.To discuss the recent FOCAC meeting and Chinese interests in Africa, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Mr. Paul Nantulya who is Research Associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at National Defense University. His research interests center on African security issues, and China-Afro-Asia engagements. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:38] History of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation [03:56] FOCAC and Chinese Interests in Africa [06:46] Africa in China's Hierarchy of Relationships[10:28] Sino-American Competition in the Global South [13:20] Takeaways from the Recent FOCAC Summit[18:27] Chinese Military Assistance in Africa[24:27] FOCAC Engagement with Non-Governmental Entities [27:52] African Perceptions of the Efficacy of FOCAC
New Caledonia is a French territory comprising dozens of islands in the South Pacific. It possesses 25% of world's nickel resources, a mineral critical in the development of weaponry. Several referenda on full independence from France have been held, but none have passed. In recent years, China has paid growing attention to the region, and New Caledonia is one of its targets of interest.A new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), titled “When China knocks at the door of New Caledonia,” explains China's interests, intentions, and activities in New Caledonia. It calls for greater attention to the territory and makes recommendations for the US and other regional actors to address the growing Chinese interference.To discuss Beijing's approach to New Caledonia, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by the report's author, Anne-Marie Brady, Professor of Political Science at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand. She specializes in Chinese domestic politics and foreign policy, polar politics, China-Pacific politics, and New Zealand foreign policy. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:46] Introduction to New Caledonia[04:20] China's Interest and Involvement [07:22] Expansion of the International United Front [11:48] Manifestation Within New Caledonia[16:22] The Belt and Road Initiative in New Caledonia[21:34] Establishing Diplomatic Relations[25:29] China's Relationship with France[28:29] Recommendations for Outside Powers and Others
The waters, as well as the rocks, reefs and submerged shoals of the South China Sea are a major source of friction in East Asia. In recent months, tensions have flared between two of the claimants – China and the Philippines – over Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged feature in the Spratly Islands, which the Chinese call Ren Ai Jiao. In 1999, the Philippines intentionally grounded a Philippine Navy transport vessel called the Sierra Madre on the reef and since then the outpost has been manned by a small contingent of marines.In 2016, an arbitral tribunal established under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled that Second Thomas Shoal is a low-tide elevation located within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines and therefore sovereignty belongs to the Philippines. No other country can legitimately claim sovereignty over the feature or the waters around it. Beijing doesn't recognize the ruling, even though it was legally binding on both China and the Philippines.Late last year, Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels began aggressively interfering with the Philippines' routine missions to deliver supplies to the Filipino forces on the Sierra Madre. On several occasions, Chinese ships have used high-pressure water cannons and rammed Filipino boats. The most serious confrontation took place in mid-June, when the Chinese used axes and knives to damage multiple Philippine vessels. A Filipino navy sailor lost his thumb in the skirmish. Negotiations between Beijing and Manila in early July produced a provisional arrangement, and the Philippines subsequently successfully conducted a resupply operation. It is uncertain whether the understanding will hold, however, since Beijing and Manila publicly disagree about what has been agreed upon.To discuss the situation at Second Thomas Shoal and China's approach to the South China Sea, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Zhang Feng, a visiting scholar at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. His research focuses on Chinese foreign policy, international relations theory, and international relations in East Asia. Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:31] Why is the South China Sea so important to China? [05:30] Has China overstepped in the South China Sea? [08:54] Reasons for Deepening Sino-Filipino Confrontation[12:05] Beijing's Reaction to a Reinforced Second Thomas Shoal[13:30] Beijing's Perception of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty[16:44] Miscalculating American Willingness to Intervene[21:32] Beijing-Manila Provisional Agreement [25:00] Chinese Deadline for the Philippines vis-à-vis the Second Thomas Shoal[27:38] Gauging the Risk of Escalation or Conflict[30:25] Stabilizing and Resolving the Second Thomas Shoal Issue
On May 27th, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea concluded their Ninth Trilateral Summit in Seoul. Leaders of the three countries resumed their highest-level annual meetings for the first time in over four years. At the conclusion of the meeting, they issued a joint declaration that includes six priority areas of cooperation, ranging from sustainable development to economic collaboration and trade. What were Beijing's interests and motivations in reviving this trilateral mechanism?To discuss China's participation in the trilateral summit, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Yun Sun, a Senior Fellow and Co-director of the East Asia program and Director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. Timestamps[01:18] Reestablishing the Trilateral Leadership Mechanism[06:14] Outcomes and Deliverables of the Trilateral Summit[10:37] 2019 Chengdu Denuclearization Agreement[13:38] China's Import Ban on Japanese Seafood[18:07] China on US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Cooperation[23:58] Warming Russian-North Korean Relations[29:30] Would Xi Jinping express his concerns with Vladimir Putin?
As the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is increasingly unstable, what can we expect from Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te when it comes to navigating relations with China? How will the results of the EU elections affect Europe's policies vis-à-vis Taiwan? And how might a change of government in the United States impact the situation? These are some of the questions discussed by Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of GMF's Indo-Pacific program, and MERICS' Director Policy & European Affairs Abigaël Vasselier in this conversation with Claudia Wessling, Director of Communications and Publications at MERICS.
On May 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded a two-day visit to China for his 43rd meeting with Xi Jinping. Based on public readouts, Putin emphasized the economic benefits that the Sino-Russian partnership could bring to both countries. Economic integration between Russia and China has accelerated dramatically, with total trade between them reaching $240 billion US dollars in 2023. Beijing's decision to increase trade with Moscow after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has kept the Russian economy afloat. Western sanctions have failed to cripple Russia's economy or its war effort. After the European Union halted the import of Russian oil, China stepped in and has since become Russia's top energy buyer. Moreover, China has become Russia's top goods supplier, having surged its sales of machine tools, microelectronics, and other technology that Moscow uses to produce weaponry in its ongoing war with Ukraine. To discuss China's trade with Russia, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Yanmei Xie. Yanmei is a Geopolitics Analyst at Gavekal Research, where she analyzes the implications of rising geopolitical and geoeconomic risks on trade, investments, and supply chains. Yanmei recently published a report on China's economic support for Russia, which was titled “How China Keeps Russia in Business.” Timestamps[02:00] China's Economic Support of Russia [05:29] Areas of Success for Western Sanctions[07:11] A Surge in Chinese Exports After the Invasion of Ukraine [09:54] Chinese Playbook for Circumventing Sanctions[13:36] Chinese Provision of Crucial Materials[15:17] Incentive to Capture the Russian Energy Market[19:17] Impact of Western Industrial Policies on Sino-Russian Trade [20:20] Possibility of Increased Sanctions to Deter China[23:24] China's Toolbox of Retaliatory Measures [26:48] Plateauing Economic Support for Russia
In the past few weeks, China's relations with Latin America and the Caribbean have been making headlines. Newsweek published an exclusive story about plans to create a Chinese-run special economic zone on the island of Antigua that will have a port, a dedicated airline, its own customs and immigration procedures, and be able to issue passports. An international crypto services zone will offer opportunities to participate in cryptocurrency operations from mining to dealing.The Americas Quarterly reported that China has expressed interest in building a port complex near the Strait of Magellan at the southern tip of South America, which is considered the most important natural passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. From there, according to the Americas Quarterly, Beijing could grow its presence in the region and also project influence in Antarctica.And in late April, China held the first China-Latin American and Caribbean States Space Cooperation Forum, which opened with a congratulatory letter from Xi Jinping applauding the high-level space cooperation partnership in which he emphasized the benefits of marrying China's mature space technology with the unique geographic advantage of the countries in the Latin America and Caribbean region.To discuss Chinese interests in and strategy toward the Latin America and Caribbean region–known as the LAC–host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Leland Lazarus. He is the Associate Director of National Security at Florida International University's Jack D. Gordon Institute of Public Policy and an expert on China-Latin America relations. He formerly served as the Special Assistant and Speechwriter to the Commander of US Southern Command and as a State Department Foreign Service Officer, with postings in Barbados and China. Timestamps[02:30] China's Interest in LAC Countries[04:44] Implementation of BRI in LAC Countries[07:23] China's Investment in Energy Development[09:39] Huawei's Penetration into LAC Countries[11:57] Role of Perú in Beijing's Regional Strategy[14:56] China-LAC Cooperation in Space[20:56] Receptivity of China to LAC Countries[25:30] How should the US compete against China in LAC?
The Biden administration maintains that China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and the power to do so. One part of China's economic statecraft toolkit involves state-directed investments through high profile projects in the Belt and Road Initiative which are funded by loans through Chinese development banks. But the role and impact of Chinese companies that provide equity funding for FDI often receive less attention. Does Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) have illiberal effects on recipient countries. And is this goal part of China's economic statecraft and foreign policy strategy.To address these questions and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Jan Knoerich. He is the author on a chapter of Chinese FDI on the recent Oxford publication “Rising Power, Limited Influence”, a collection of essays on the effects of Chinese investment in Europe. Dr. Knoerich is a senior lecturer on the Chinese economy for the Lau China Institute at King's College in London. He is an expert on the Chinese economy, FDI, and international investment law and policy. Timestamps[01:38] Evolution of Chinese Foreign Investment Strategies[04:48] Chinese Firms Undertaking Foreign Direct Investment[09:16] Impacts of Chinese FDI: Five Dimensions [18:17] Reasons Why Chinese Firms are Viewed with Suspicion[21:06] Impacts of Chinese FDI Projects in Europe[24:59] Evidence of Chinese FDI Exerting Political Influence
When Hong Kong was handed over to China by the United Kingdom 1997, the city was given a mini-Constitution called the “Basic Law.” Article 23 of the Basic Law states that Hong Kong shall enact laws of its own to prohibit various national security offenses. The law did not pass, however, and was scrapped after mass protests in 2003. And in 2020, the Central Government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) imposed a separate national security law on Hong Kong, citing the city's delay in acting on Article 23. This year on March 19th, Article 23 was passed unanimously by the city's parliament and it came into effect just days later. The law covers five types of crime: treason, insurrection and incitement to mutiny, theft of state secrets, and espionage, sabotage, and external interference. Critics say that Article 23 could lead to even further erosions of civil liberties in Hong Kong.To discuss Article 23 and its implications, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Eric Yan-ho Lai. Dr. Lai is a Research Fellow at the Georgetown Center for Asian Law, an Associate Fellow at the Hong Kong Studies Hub of the University of Surrey, and a member of the Asian Civil Society Research Network. Timestamps[01:47] Understanding PRC Definitions Used in Article 23[03:37] Why was Article 23 passed now?[05:23] Compressed Timeline for Unanimous Approval[09:05] Shift in Risk Assessment for Multinational Corporations[12:03] Precedents for Targeting Diaspora Communities[14:17] Reactions to Article 23 from the International Community[15:54] What are some concrete actions that could be taken to signal concern?[17:55] Do the PRC and Hong Kong care about international perceptions?[19:36] Implementation of Article 23 Moving Forward[21:28] Passage of Additional Security Legislature[22:57] Forecast for the Future of Hong Kong
On a previous episode of the China Global Podcast, we discussed Beijing's position on the conflict in Gaza during the early days following Hamas' attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. Today, we discuss one of the conflict's spillover effects– the attacks on cargo and trade ships transiting the Red Sea by the Houthis, an Iranian-backed Shia group governing parts of Yemen. While the Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran was as the beginning of a “wave of reconciliation” in the region by China's foreign minister Wang Yi, the resurgence of violence since October 7th has proven that prediction to be overly optimistic. At face value, disruptions of global trade may seem to run counter to Chinese interests, but Beijing's hesitance to become more deeply involved in the crisis may tell us something about China's calculations in this crisis. It may also show the limits of Chinese influence in the region. Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ahmed Aboudouh. Ahmed is an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council, and heads the China Studies research unit at the Emirates Policy Center. His research focuses on China's rising influence in the Middle East and North Africa region, Gulf geopolitics, and the effects of China-US competition worldwide. Timestamps[01:36] China's Statement on Palestine at the International Court of Justice[08:20] Why is China indirectly supporting Hamas despite its relations with Israel?[12:11] Effectiveness of China's Narrative Critical of America and the West[16:54] Israel, Palestine, and China's Diplomatic Calculus[20:12] China's Hesitance to Counter the Houthis in the Red Sea[25:15] Does China have leverage over Iran, and if so, will they use it?[29:59] Circumstances for Deeper Chinese Involvement
On February 1st 2021, the Tatmadaw, or Myanmar military began a coup d'etat against the democratically-elected government, which was led by the National League for Democracy (or NLD) just before elected officials from the November 2020 elections could be sworn in. Since then, Myanmar has been largely controlled by a military junta, who continue to struggle against multiple ethnically-aligned armies dispersed throughout the country. Some countries in the region have refused to recognize the junta, but the People's Republic of China called the coup simply a “major cabinet reshuffle” and accelerated their military trade with the junta while decrying Western sanctions on the country as escalatory measures, even going so far as to veto a security council resolution condemning the coup alongside Russia. China's approach to relations with Myanmar since the coup have been evolving swiftly, especially since the recent Operation 1027, a large offensive staged by the ethnic armed forces coalition known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance on October 27th 2023. The losses by the junta during the operation revealed their control of the country to be more tenuous than Beijing might have expected and exemplify the complex factors going into China's decision-making approach to the conflict. For this episode, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Jason Tower, the country director for the Burma program at the United States Institute for Peace. Tower has over 20 years of experience working in conflict and security issues in China and Southeast Asia, including analysis on cross-border investments, conflict dynamics, and organized crime in the region. He worked previously in Beijing and is a former Fulbright research student and Harvard-Yenching fellow. Timestamps[02:07] China's Interest in the Myanmar Conflict[05:48] China's Engagement with Parties in Myanmar[12:48] Impact of China's Brokered Ceasefires [20:30] Credibility of China in Southeast Asia[25:15] Myanmar in the US-China Relationship
This week, A'ndre chatted with Bonnie Glaser, one of the country's premier Taiwan experts and the Managing Director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program, on all things related to Taiwan. Bonnie provides a quick overview of Taiwan's contemporary history, outlining how the U.S. and China have engaged with Taiwan's Government, the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, and why China aims to claim Taiwan as its own. Bonnie discusses why she believes that China will NOT invade Taiwan in the near-future, and also what the recent Taiwanese Presidential Elections mean for Cross-Strait relations. A'ndre and Bonnie also chat about the significance of Taiwan's economy to global supply chains (particularly in the technology domain), and why any conflict over island would likely upend the global economy.You can check out Bonnie's book (co-authored with Brookings' Ryan Hass and Dr. Richard Bush), U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis? here.
Michael talks with Taiwan expert Bonnie Glaser, who is managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific Program, ahead of Taiwan's elections January 13. Also, Michael and Andy want to hear from you. Send us your feedback at intelligencematterspod@gmail.com. We'll also read some of your reviews of the podcast from Apple onair.
On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China's power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January, 2024. For this discussion, the proposition is “Xi Jinping has signaled that reunification with Taiwan is a legacy issue that he must achieve during his term in office.” The first speaker for this discussion is Ms. Bonnie Glaser, who is the managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund. The second speaker is Mr. Chad Sbragia, who is a research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analysis and is the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for China at the Department of Defense. To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.
This podcast episode is a joint and cross-over episode between the CSIS ChinaPower Podcast and the German Marshall Fund's China Global Podcast. We are joined by Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen to discuss their recently released article titled “Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence.” The authors underline the article's key point, that assurances, alongside threats, are an integral part of effective deterrence. They emphasize that in order for deterrence to work, the threat of punishment must be not only credible but also conditional. Finally, the authors outline what actions each of the three actors- the U.S., China, and Taiwan- should take to effectively convey assurances to one another. Ms. Bonnie Glaser is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program. She is also a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS. Ms. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and U.S. policy for more than three decades. Dr. Jessica Chen Weiss is a professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies in the Department of Government at Cornell University. She was previously an assistant professor at Yale University and founded the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford University. Formerly, Dr. Weiss served as senior advisor to the Secretary's Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department on a Council on Foreign Relations Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars. Dr. Thomas Christensen is a professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and World Program at Columbia University. Prior to this, he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus is on China's foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security.
This podcast episode is a joint and cross-over episode between the CSIS ChinaPower Podcast and the German Marshall Fund's China Global Podcast. We are joined by Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen to discuss their recently released article titled “Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence.” The authors underline the article's key point, that assurances, alongside threats, are an integral part of effective deterrence. They emphasize that in order for deterrence to work, the threat of punishment must be not only credible but also conditional. Finally, the authors outline what actions each of the three actors- the U.S., China, and Taiwan- should take to effectively convey assurances to one another.Ms. Bonnie Glaser is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program. She is also a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS. Ms. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and U.S. policy for more than three decades.Dr. Jessica Chen Weiss is a professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies in the Department of Government at Cornell University. She was previously an assistant professor at Yale University and founded the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford University. Formerly, Dr. Weiss served as senior advisor to the Secretary's Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department on a Council on Foreign Relations Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars.Dr. Thomas Christensen is a professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and World Program at Columbia University. Prior to this, he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus is on China's foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security.
On this episode of the China Global podcast, the relationship between the Philippines and China, and some of the flashpoints therein (especially in the maritime realm), will be discussed. Since taking office in June 2022, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has pursued a strategy of “being a friend to all and an enemy to none.” He has tried to maintain close economic ties with China, signing 14 cooperation agreements when he visited Beijing last January, including an updated Belt and Road Initiative memorandum. He secured over $22 billion in investment and trade deals. But the maritime disputes between the Philippines and China are becoming more contentious, and Manila is pushing back against Chinese pressure in new ways. Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Richard Heydarian to analyze the bilateral relationship and especially the maritime flashpoints. Heydarian is a columnist at the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a Senior Lecturer at the University of the Philippines, and a policy adviser. His most recent book is The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Global Struggle for Mastery. Timestamps[01:36] Changes in Sino-Phillipine Relations[09:05] Tensions Between the Chinese Coast Guard and Philippine Ships[14:23] Pushing Back Against China[20:55] China, the Philippines, and the Warship[25:05] Future Relations with China[29:30] The Philippines and a Taiwan Strait Conflict
Juliet, Erik, and guest Tim Ruhlig discuss technical standards, China's growth in technical industries and its increasing influence in leading and setting standards, and the new geopolitics of technical standardization and interdependence.Tim Ruhlig is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, where he researches Europe-China relations, German-China relations, Hong Kong politics, and Chinese foreign industrial policy, He is the founder of the Digital Power China (DPC) Research Consortium, which brings together European engineers and Chinese scholars to carry out policy-relevant research on the PRC's growing digital technology footprint and its implications for Europe.Recommendations:Tim: The Emperor's New Road: China and the Project of the Century, Jonathan Hillman (2020)U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis? Bonnie Glaser, Ryan Hass, Richard Bush (2023)Film: “To Life” Zhang Yi Mou (1994)Wildland: The Making of America's Fury, Evan Osnos (2021)Erik: "Barbie Heimer"—Barbie (2023) and Oppenheimer (2023) movies on the same day (recommendation is Barbie is the better movie)Juliet:“Even China Isn't Convinced It Can Replace the U.S.” Jessia Chen Weiss (2023)
Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan has induced alarm in Washington about whether the United States is capable of deterring attempts to seize Taiwan by force. This alarm feeds American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens. While Taiwan clearly is under growing military threat, it also is facing an intensifying Chinese political campaign to wear down the will of the Taiwan people. Ryan Hass, Richard Bush, and Bonnie Glaser argue in U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis? that discussions of the future of Taiwan should focus on the island's 23 million people. In an interview conducted on September 14, 2023, Richard Bush and Bonnie Glaser contend that conflict in the Taiwan Strait is not inevitable, and that it would be foolish for the United States to conclude that it is unavoidable. About the speakers: https://www.ncuscr.org/event/u-s-taiwan-relations/ Read the transcript here: https://www.ncuscr.org/podcast/u-s-taiwan-relations/ Follow Bonnie Glaser on Twitter: @BonnieGlaser Subscribe to the National Committee on YouTube for video of this interview. Follow us on Twitter (@ncuscr) and Instagram (@ncuscr).
In late August, China's Ministry of Natural Resources released its new “standard map,” which includes not only Taiwan, but also parts of the maritime zones of the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It also includes land that China disputes with India—and even some Russian territory. To publicize the map and China's claims, Beijing launched a “national map awareness publicity week,” as it has for map releases in recent years. China's map release is an annual event, which can happen at any time. So why now? And what does the map tell us about Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping? To discuss this topic, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Collin Koh who is Senior Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, based in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He has research interests on naval affairs in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on Southeast Asia. Timestamps[01:29] How does this map differ from previous ones?[04:44] Interagency Coordination on Release[05:51] Reaction of the Chinese Foreign Ministry [08:12] Significance of the Timing of the Release[11:32] Protests Against the Map's Release[15:09] Portrayal of the South China Sea[19:35] Ambiguity of Beijing's Claims [23:44] Territorial Claims Along the Sino-Russian Border[26:58] Lasting Impact of the Map
In 2001, Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill coined the term “BRIC” to describe the fast-growing economies that he predicted would collectively dominate the global economy by 2050. The BRIC countries he was referring to were Brazil, Russia, India, and China. After a series of high-level meetings that included officials from the four countries, the BRIC grouping was founded in 2009. The following year, South Africa joined, and the name became “BRICS”. Last month, the fifteenth BRICS summit was held in Johannesburg. In addition to the leaders of the five core countries, representatives from more than 60 countries attended, and six were officially invited to join the club: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.How does the BRICS serve China's foreign policy objectives? And is this expansion a major win for Xi Jinping? Is BRICS likely to become a global grouping of authoritarian countries that poses a challenge to the G-7 group of democracies – and is that what Beijing wants? To discuss these topics and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Colleen Cottle, deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub. Prior to joining the Atlantic Council, she spent over a dozen years at the Central Intelligence Agency where she worked on East and South Asia. Timestamps[01:45] What has BRICS achieved? [05:33] China Driving the BRICS Agenda[08:35] Where does BRICS fit into China's foreign policy agenda? [10:53] Why has BRICS refrained from endorsing BRI?[12:53] Outcomes of Johannesburg Summit[15:18] Criteria for Expanding BRICS Membership[18:19] Potential for BRICS Disrupting the International Order[23:52] China as a Developing Country[26:56] Will we see any breakthroughs with BRICS?
Earlier this summer, there was an unexpected shakeup in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force. Commander Li Yuchao was removed along with his deputy Liu Guangbin and a former deputy Zhang Zhenzhong. All three men are reportedly under investigation for disciplinary violations by the Central Military Commission's anti-corruption unit. Xi Jinping appointed Wang Houbin, former deputy commander of the navy, as head of the Rocket Force, and Xu Xiesheng, from the air force as political commissar. The PLA's Rocket Force, established on January 1, 2016, is the successor to the Second Artillery Corps. It has responsibility for China's growing arsenal of land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, both nuclear and conventional. What is the significance of this reshuffle in the PLA's most sensitive branch? What implications do the appointments of new commanders from other parts of the military have for PLA readiness and preparations for a Taiwan invasion scenario? To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Phillip Saunders, Director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs and a Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense University's Institute of National Strategic Studies. Dr. Saunder's most recent publication is a study he conducted with David Logan on the drivers of China's nuclear force development. The views he expresses today are his own and do not represent the National Defense University or the US Department of Defense.Timestamps[01:58] Unpacking the Shakeup [04:19] Launch-on-Warning Posture[05:34] Rooting out Corruption[09:00] Concerns of Loyalty [10:40] Inexperienced Leadership[14:58] Naval Leadership of Rocket Force[17:32] Viability of Invading Taiwan[19:06] System for Military Governance[21:38] Nuclear Force Development[29:00] US-China Nuclear Dialogue
Technology is the focus of the intensifying competition between the United States and China, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is at the core. China views AI as a means to gain a strategic advantage over the United States and its allies. It intends to use AI to build a world-class military. Beijing also views AI as an enabler of surveillance and repression that can help to bolster its illiberal model of governance. China's national AI strategy calls for a vast expansion of AI in manufacturing, governance, and national defense, with China becoming a global leader in the field by 2030 through multiple AI technology innovations and personnel training centers. To discuss this topic, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Before joining CSIS, he was the director of strategy and policy at the Department of Defense (DOD) Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, where he oversaw development and implementation of the DOD's AI Strategy, drove policy and human capital reforms to accelerate the DOD's adoption of AI, and developed mechanisms for AI governance and ethics. Timestamps[01 :37] Centrality of AI in US-China Competition[04 :21] China's Strengths and Weaknesses[06 :20] Progress in the Field of AI[09 :54] Reducing the Risk of Military AI Accidents[13 :37] Discussing AI with the Chinese Government[16 :11] Biden Administration's Export Controls on AI[21 :31] Reducing Dependency on the West[24 :15] Collaborating on AI Regulation[27 :25] Who will spearhead the next Technological Revolution?
Critical minerals are non-fuel minerals or mineral materials essential to the economic or national security of the U.S. They have no viable substitutes yet face a high risk of supply chain disruption. Critical minerals are used for many different purposes, including the production of advanced electronics, weapons systems, manufacturing equipment, and cutting-edge medical devices. They are indispensable for the transition to low-carbon energy sources. Last year, the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, with the aid of the U.S. Geological Survey, published a list of 50 critical minerals. China dominates global critical mineral supply chains, accounting for approximately 60% of world-wide production and 85% of processing capacity. However, the U.S. and several European countries are taking steps to build out their own ability to mine, process, and manufacture critical minerals. To discuss the implications of China's role in critical mineral supply chains and the responses of the U.S. and its partners, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Abigail Wulf, vice president and director of the Ambassador Alfred Hoffman Jr. Center for Critical Minerals Strategy at Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE), a non-profit advancing transformative transportation technology to enhance energy security. Time Stamps[01:51] Vulnerabilities and Risks of Overdependence [07:07] Development of a Domestic Mining Industry [12:42] Environmental Hazards of Processing Raw Minerals [18:30] Impact of Export Controls on Gallium and Germanium[22:53] Diversifying Sources of Rare Earth Imports[26:38] The Critical Raw Materials Act[29:58] The Mineral Security Partnership
SummaryA new Foreign Relations Law took effect in China on July 1, 2023 that formalizes Chinese Communist Party leadership in all foreign policy matters. It puts China's security and development interests and global rise at the center of its engagement with the world. The new law has been widely interpreted as providing a legal basis for Beijing's struggle against what it says is a strategy of containment by the United States and its allies, and against foreign interference and sanctions, as well as what is calls America's “long-arm jurisdiction.” To discuss the Foreign Relations Law, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Moritz Rudolf, a Research Scholar in Law and Fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, where he focuses on the implications of China's rise for the international legal order. Timestamps[01:15] Impetus for the Foreign Relations Law[02:47] Centralized and Unified Leadership of Foreign Relations[04:27] China and Reforming the International Order[09:20] How might China use the foreign relations law?[11:03] Insurance Against International Courts[12:31] Targeting a Domestic Audience[15:10] Expected Policy Changes in China[17:30] Applicability of the Law in Cross-Strait Relations[21:57] Forecasting Chinese Use of Lawfare
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, joins Executive Director Adam O'Neal to discuss how the U.S. and China manage their differences over Taiwan. Also: -Taiwan's relationship with Trump and Biden -China's military transformation -The significance of 2049 Show Notes: -Bonnie Glaser's profile for the German Marshall Fund -U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Relations between the United States and China have slid to their lowest point since the 1970s. After President Biden and Xi Jinping met in November 2022, they instructed their senior officials to initiate a process to stabilize the relationship. Before much headway could be made, however, China sent a surveillance balloon to the west coast of the United States that ended up loitering over sensitive military sites and then flew across the entire country before being shot down by the US. Secretary of State Blinken postponed his planned visit to China. Acrimony and distrust spiked. Several months later, the US and China decided to try again. Blinken visited Beijing from June 18-19, and had meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Director Wang Yi, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. What is the trajectory of the bilateral relationship after the visit? Is it possible to stabilize ties and resume dialogue mechanisms and some forms of cooperation, or is further deterioration of relations more likely? To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-China Studies. During the Obama administration, Evan served for six years on the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. Timestamps[01:45] US-China Relations at this Juncture[05:10] Deterioration of US-China Relations[08:30] Analysis of Secretary Blinken's Visit[10:40] Principles Guiding US-China Relations[13:16] Is agreement on principles a precondition for progress?[13:48] Is the US-China relationship dominated by competition?[16:45] Top-Down Pressure to Deny Competition[18:30] Displacing the United States[19:50] Where Blinken's Visit Fell Short[22:48] Putting a Floor Under the Relationship[24:46] Interpreting Evolving Sino-Russian Relations[28:15] China's Initial Reaction to the War in Ukraine[29:24] Forecast for US-China Relations [31:57] Incentives for Stability
In this episode, Dr. Victor Cha and Andrew Schwartz are joined by Ms. Bonnie Glaser to discuss the relations between South Korea and China, the upcoming NATO summit in July, and the relationship between China and North Korea during the COVID lockdown.
On June 3, 2023, there was a near-collision between a US and a PRC destroyer in the Taiwan Strait. According to a statement issued by US Indo-Pacific Command, a US Navy destroyer, the USS Chung-Hoon, and a Canadian warship were conducting a routine south to north Taiwan Strait transit through waters where high seas freedoms of navigation and overflight apply. The Luyang III, a People's Liberation Army destroyer, overtook the Chung-Hoon on her port side and crossed her bow at 150 yards. The US warship maintained course and slowed to 10 knots to avoid a collision. US Indo-Pacific Command stated that the actions of the Chinese destroyer violated the maritime Rules of the Road of safe passage in international waters.How dangerous was this incident? Why do US warships sail in these waters, and do they do so in accordance with international law? And what steps should be taken to ensure that accidents do not take place between US and Chinese naval vessels?To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Peter Dutton, professor of international law in the Stockton Center for International Law at the US Naval War College and an Adjunct Professor of Law at New York University School of Law. His research focuses on international law of the sea, Chinese views of sovereignty and international law, and China's maritime expansion. Timestamps[01:50] Freedom of the High Seas [03:21] Joint Freedom of Navigation Operations[03:52] Statement by the US Indo-Pacific Command[04:46] Statement by Defense Minister Li Shangfu[06:49] History of Dangerous Maneuvering by the Chinese[07:41] Trigger for the Recent Dangerous Maneuver[09:13] Chinese Adherence to International Law[10:19] Signaling Intentions in a Safe and Legal Manner[12:03] Aftermath of a Hypothetical Collision at Sea[14:44] Is the US Goading China into Conflict?[17:38] Rules of Behavior for Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters[19:24] Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea[20:27] The US and the Convention on the Law of the Sea[21:51] Interactions with Chinese Experts and Professionals
This week, Burn Bag hosts A'ndre and David chat with Ryan Hass, senior fellow and the Michael H. Armacost Chair in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, on China's foreign policy decision-making and strategy, from the 1970s through to the present. We discuss how China's sphere of influence, global standing, and relations with the United States have changed over the decades. Ryan provides an overview of China's foreign policy goals under Xi, and whether they're unique when compared to those of his predecessors. We probe whether China's foreign policy approach is sustainable, and evaluate its relations with India, smaller states, and countries in the Middle East, before dissecting China's approach to Russia amidst the War in Ukraine. We then shift to a broader conversation on China's aggression towards Taiwan, and whether a conflict is inevitable. Ryan's new book (co-authored with Dr. Richard Bush and Bonnie Glaser, “U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis?”, is out right now.
Brookings Senior Fellows Richard Bush and Ryan Hass, co-authors with Bonnie Glaser of a new Brookings Press book on U.S.-Taiwan relations in the context of China's challenge, argue that tensions between the PRC and Taiwan can only be resolved with the assent of Taiwan's people. Taiwan's presidential election result in 2024 will also affect how much pressure Beijing applies to cross-Taiwan Strait relations, they explain. Show notes and transcript: https://bit.ly/41avgjl Dollar & Sense is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Learn more at brookings.edu/podcasts, and send feedback to podcasts@brookings.edu.
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On this episode, Anita speaks with Bonnie Glaser, who is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program. Our conversation is all about China as we discuss spy balloons, Taiwan, and the conditions that might spark China to risk war with the United States.We begin the show with the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war. Ryan explains the conspiracy theory that posits that the US critically damaged the Nord Stream pipeline that brought gas from Russia into Germany.The current head of the World Bank unexpectedly resigned this week. We explain why he is leaving and why it matters. We also discuss the mission of the World Bank and why many want to have it have a larger role in addressing the issue of climate change in developing countries. Topics Discussed in this Episode05:00: Russia-Ukraine Update: Russian Offensive and Nord Stream Allegations32:30: World Bank: Politics and Climate Change48:00: Interview with Bonnie GlaserArticles and Resources Mentioned in EpisodeRussia-Ukraine Update: Russian Offensive and Nord Stream AllegationsMoscow's Military Capabilities Are in Question After Failed Battle for Ukrainian City (NY Times)How the War in Ukraine Ends (The New Yorker)Nord Stream, Seymour Hersh and how disinformation works (Natalia Antelava)Our tweet thread debunking Hersh article on Nord Stream allegationsWorld Bank: Politics and Climate ChangeThe World Bank: What it is and how it operates (Bretton Woods project)World Bank head denies climate controversy spurred resignation (WaPo)Malpass survives climate gaffe, but the World Bank's fossil fuel policy may not (Politico)Interview with Bonnie GlaserGerman Marshall FundTwitter (@BonnieGlaser)China Global PodcastU.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis?Follow Us Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg Anita's Twitter: @arkellogg Show YouTube
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, observers anxiously watched China's reactions as many feared a similar conflict would break out in the Taiwan Strait. In recent years, it appears China has been increasingly determined to enforce its One-China policy, first against Hong Kong and now against Taiwan. From afar, the United States is caught between deterring China from an all-out military conflict and supporting a democratic Taiwan. A few months ago, President Joe Biden broke away from America's traditionally ambiguous stance and said the US would defend Taiwan if China attacks. However, Eurasia Group Foundation's annual survey found that the number of Americans who support US intervention to help Taiwan is waning. So, how likely is it that a conflict between China and Taiwan breaks out? Is it possible for the US to navigate conflicting interests without resorting to involving itself in another war? In this episode, EGF senior fellow Mark Hannah sits down with Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund to discuss the state of US-China relations and the future of Taiwan. Bonnie Glaser is the managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and US policy for more than three decades. To listen to more episodes or learn more about None Of The Above, go to www.noneoftheabovepodcast.org. To learn more about the Eurasia Group Foundation, please visit www.egfound.org and subscribe to our newsletter.
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