Podcasts about skewness

This is a link post. Author: Adam Salisbury, Senior Research Associate In a nutshell We've had a longstanding concern that some of our top charity programs, including insecticide-treated nets, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and vitamin A supplementation (VAS), may have less impact than we've estimated due to “repetitive saving.” These programs provide health interventions to the same children under 5 years old annually or every 3 years. Our cost-effectiveness models currently assume that different lives are saved each year from these interventions. We think it's possible the programs are actually saving the same, high-risk children over and over. In a worst-case scenario, this could mean the programs are saving 80% fewer cumulative lives than we thought. Based on a shallow review of empirical evidence and talking to experts, our best guess is that we're only overstating the total lives saved by these programs by around 10%, because: Under-5 deaths [...] ---Outline:(00:12) In a nutshell(02:46) What's the issue?(06:44) What did we find?(11:53) How could we be wrong?(14:31) What's the issue?(17:35) Why we don't think this is a big concern(18:22) Driver 1: Skewness of mortality risk(20:42) Driver 2: Persistence of the at-risk population(25:12) Modeling these drivers(34:08) Sensitivity checks(35:35) Outside the model checks(37:34) How could we be wrong?(40:28) Are we returning children to normal life expectancy?(42:34) Driver 1: Skewness of mortality risk across the life cycle(43:43) Driver 2: Persistence of the at-risk population(48:13) Moral difficulties raised by the life expectancy question--- First published: June 18th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jNAFTJWpKK89pisaQ/are-our-top-charities-saving-the-same-lives-each-year --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

How a few high-impact successes drive up overall average outcomes in investing, business, and creative projects. How to harness positive skewness using a barbell approach. Learn when to mitigate risks and when to embrace them.Topics covered include:What is positive skewness and how does it manifest in investing, business and creative endeavorsHow power laws and the 80/20 rule workWhy we shouldn't beat ourselves up if we aren't incredibly successfulWhen should we reduce positive skewness and when should we embrace itSponsorsLinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsBetterment - the automated investing and savings appOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesLong-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks by Hendrik Bessembinder, Te-Feng Chen, Goeun Choi, K.C. John Wei—SSRNLong-Horizon Stock Returns Are Positively Skewed by Adam Farago and Erik Hjalmarsson—SSRNWealth Creation in the U.S. Public Stock Markets 1926 to 2019 by Hendrik Bessembinder—SSRNThe Coffee Can portfolio by Robert G. Kirby—csinvestingActive vs Passive Investing U.S. Barometer Report—Morningstar Table 7. Survival of private sector establishments by opening year—U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsHow Many Podcasts Are There? (New 2024 Data) by Josh Howarth—Exploding TopicsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, we are joined by renowned expert Abby Sussman to unpack how individuals form judgments and make decisions about their finances. Abby is a distinguished professor of marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business whose expertise lies at the intersection of psychology, economics, and finance. In our conversation, we discuss the nuances of financial decision-making and how personal beliefs influence our financial choices. Discover the source of reference points for financial well-being and how expense prediction biases play a role in making poor financial decisions. We explore the effectiveness of budgeting, the nuances of product sensitivity, and the drivers of excessive consumer consumption. Gain insights into navigating the complexities of financial decision-making, the psychology behind it, how AI can help you make better financial decisions, and much more. Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of the psychology behind financial decisions and uncover strategies to optimize your financial future with Abby Sussman!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:04:45) Explore the difference in how we perceive others' wealth versus our own. (0:08:25) Drivers of the differences in perception and their impact on financial decision-making. (0:11:43) Steps to reduce excessive consumption and how personal future wealth perceptions influence financial decision-making. (0:16:58) Discover the source of the reference point people use when considering their wealth. (0:18:53) How to make better financial decisions and the role of peoples' expectations. (0:20:20) Unpack expense prediction bias and the problems it creates. (0:22:55) Methods used to predict expenses and what people typically budget for. (0:29:00) Pragmatic advice for reducing the influence of expense prediction bias. (0:31:53) Whether prediction bias manifests in long-term planning, such as retirement. (0:33:14) Find out if setting a budget is common practice and how it impacts financial health. (0:37:36) Trends in actual spending in relation to expenses budgeted for. (0:39:31) She explains how people categorize expenses and react to insufficient funds. (0:42:40) Product sensitivity and how attitudes toward investment products vary. (0:48:21) Interventions to help people choose better financial products. (0:49:40) Areas of research she is most interested in and her opinion on the role of AI. (0:55:54) Abby shares her definition of success.   Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Abby Sussman on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/abigail-sussman-ab4427/ Abby Sussman on X — https://twitter.com/abbysussman The University of Chicago Booth School of Business — https://www.chicagobooth.edu/ Society for Judgment and Decision Making — https://sjdm.org/ Episode 153: Prof. Johanna Peetz — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/153 Epidose 296: Adam Alter — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/296 Panel Study of Income Dynamics — https://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/ Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — https://www.consumerfinance.gov/   Papers From Today's Episode:    ‘Understanding and Neutralizing the Expense Prediction Bias: The Role of Accessibility, Typicality, and Skewness' — https://doi.org/10.1177/00222437211068025 ‘The Exception Is the Rule: Underestimating and Overspending on Exceptional Expenses' — https://doi.org/10.1086/665833 ‘The Role of Risk Preferences in Responses to Messaging About COVID-19 Vaccine Take-Up' — https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550621999622 ‘The Role of Mental Accounting in Household Spending and Investing Decisions' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3051415 ‘How Consumers Budget” — https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.09.025 ‘Financial Product Sensitivity Predicts Financial Health' — https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2142

Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:48 - What has caught our attention in markets?04:08 - Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies09:59 - What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?17:28 - Adding carry to trend22:52 - How to use utility functions25:08 - Defining the variables28:09 - Advice for implementing a carry strategy36:22 - Nick's perspective on reversion strategies40:21 - Moving beyond single stocks47:48 - Skewness in commodities54:30 - How climate change impacts investment strategies Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're...

Normal distribution is a theoretical thing that if applied to trading, you wouldn't ever make money because wins would be cancelled by an equal, or normal number and size of losses. You don't want normal, anything but normal, but you do want it skewed in your favor.

Our guest this week is a return visit from Matt of http://www.plusevanalytics.com. Some of the topics discussed include pointsbet, which is a newcomer to American sports books. We also talk about correlated parlays, why you should never use a tout, and the difference in US and Canadian sports betting. We welcome your questions - send them to us at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.podcastClick to listen - Alt click to downloadShow Notes[00:00]  Introduction of Matt, a Canadian actuary, from PlusEVanalytics.com[00:35]  What is a points better?[02:25]  Skewness and asymmetric distributions[03:23]  Caps in a points bet[04:51]  Player prop distributions[06:11]  Required collateral[07:26]  Market efficiency [09:11]  Canadian sports betting markets[14:06]  U.S. tax issues for foreign gamblers[16:27]  FiveThirtyEight.com[19:00]  Positive EV situations on Predictit.org [24:14]  South Point Casino October Promotions - Free Play with a Kicker[25:00]  Predictit.org/promo/edge[25:32]   BlackJackApprenticeship.com - card counting website and community[26:21]  VideoPoker.com/gwae - Gold Membership offers correction on most games[27:21]  Pricing counterparty risk[29:11]  Promotion stories [32:54]  Tesla Model S[34:54]  Correlated parlays [40:31]  Domestic versus offshore sports betting[42:18]  Touts[48:50]  How can listeners contact Matt?[49:38]  Recommended - 99 Second Story Telling Contest, My Octopus Teacher, RX Gamble Guest links:PlusEVAnalytics.comTwitter.com/PlusEVAnalyticsSponsored Links:SouthPountCasino.comPredictit.org/promo/edgeBlackJackApprenticeship.comVideoPoker.com/gwaeRecommended:99 Second Story Grand Slam https://fb.me/e/3IPJBlqsFMy Octopus Teacher Netflix.com/title/81045007RXGamble.com

Сколько же дней нужно для формирования привычки? Мы обратимся к изначальным исследованиям и я расскажу, как я их разбираю и решаю, верить им или нет. Продолжаем обзор книги Власть Привычки (Сила Привычки), Чарлз Дахигг. 02:03 YouTube канал: Utopia show 02:04 YouTube Канал: Борис Цацулин. Как мы не умеем считать калории 02:47 Фильм (кажется) : Deep web 02:46 Про сайт: The Silk Road 03:52 Эксперимент Милгрэма 05:03 Мета-анализ: от 28% до 91%. Со средним 66% 06:56 Джордан Питерсон 07:17 Когнитивное искажение Контраста 08:08 YouTube видео: Coffernado. Психология Влияния 08:28 Discovery передача: Головоломы 09:56 Книга: Соль, Сахар и Жир. Майкл Мосс 11:02 Книга: Триггеры. Маршалл Голдсмит 12:43 Висцеральный жир 14:15 Мои Выпуски подкаста номер 14 и 15. Книга: Власть привычки. 16:06 Сorrelation does not imply Сausation – не нужно считать связь с чем-то за причину. 16:32 Conscientiousness Big 5 – добросовестность/сознательность. Видео про Большую Пятерку 17:06 Craving – предвкушение 17:57 Мой подкаст выпуски 5 и 6. Книга: Commit to win 19:03 Про Мальтза и 21 день 19:48 Phillippa Lally. Исследование про 66 дней для привычки. (читайте на английском, потому что на русском, некоторые даже её пол в статье перепутали, как можно говорить о точности другой информации). Другая статья 20:13 Variance, 方差, Дисперсия случайной величины (одним словом "разброс") 22:02 Говорим о том, как разбирать исследования! 22:41 Ссылка на исследование, смотрите (19:48) 24:26 Skewed sample size. Не нашел на русском, но само Skewness распределения, называется коэффициентом асимметрии 25:45 Дофамин 26:09 Вставка с YouTube: Тимур Сидельников ... Остальные ссылки к сожалению здесь не помещаются. Все оставшиеся ссылки как и сам подкаст в полностью текстовой форме смотрите на сайте: https://coffernado.com/2019/09/16/podcast16/ Соц. сети: Мой Instagram YouTube канал Twitter Группа Вк

In Episode 5 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Checking your credit Optimizing your credit score Investing vs. paying off your mortgage Asset allocation Reframing mortgage debt Are we in a tech bubble? The rise in the US market is backed by fundamentals How the largest Canadian pension funds invest Skewness in VC returns It’s still really hard to beat index funds  The stories we talked about: Mortgage debt and asset allocation Fed Up Andrew Coyne: Canada Pension Plan's active management strategy is a crock Tiny Wisconsin College Using Index Funds Trounces Endowment Rivals   The charts we talked about: Source: Raymond Kerzhéro, PWL Capital   Source: Raymond Kerzhéro, PWL Capital   Source: Raymond Kerzhéro, PWL Capital   Source: Correlation Ventures   For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com 

This week's episode dicusses z-scores, also known as standard score. This score describes the distance (in standard deviations) that an observation is away from the mean of the population. A closely related top is the 68-95-99.7 rule which tells us that (approximately) 68% of a normally distributed population lies within one standard deviation of the mean, 95 within 2, and 99.7 within 3. Kyle and Linh Da discuss z-scores in the context of human height. If you'd like to calculate your own z-score for height, you can do so below. They further discuss how a z-score can also describe the likelihood that some statistical result is due to chance. Thus, if the significance of a finding can be said to be 3σ, that means that it's 99.7% likely not due to chance, or only 0.3% likely to be due to chance.

Campbell Harvey of Duke University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his research evaluating various investment and trading strategies and the challenge of measuring their effectiveness. Topics discussed include skill vs. luck, self-deception, the measures of statistical significance, skewness in investment returns, and the potential of big data.

Pacific Plate Apparent Polar Wander from the Skewness of Marine Magnetic Anomalies w/Implications for Plate Reconstructions, Motion Between Hotspots, & True Polar Wander

Volatility Views 25: Skewness and Kurtosis Volatility Review: Metals and gold vol. Euro vol review: Don talks about the recommendations he had made to sell the Euro VolContracts a week ago Thursday, and where they settled this past Friday - a product rich in volatility. S&P, Nasdaq, and commodity vol review. Plus, Mark Sebastian's volatility review. Volatility Viewpoint: A quick primer on mean, median, standard deviation, skew-ness, and kurtosis of distributions, and why we don't remove the mean for vol calculations. Plus, explaining negative market skew-ness, leptokurtic behavior of stock prices, etc. As always, we keep it easy to understand and non-intimidating. Mailbag: Captain Options asks, "Given the explosion of popularity in weekly options, I'm curious if Mark & Don think there is room for short-term realized volatility products. Would a weekly realized vol product even make sense at this point given the short time frame of the product? Can you generate a worthwhile calculation of volatility in such a short time frame?" Crystal Ball: S&P, Nasdaq, and commodity Vol outlook. Euro VolContracts outlook. What's coming up at VolX and Option Pit?