Podcasts about FiveThirtyEight

We're diving into the final chapter of one of the most recognizable names in polling: FiveThirtyEight. @GElliottMorris joins us to break down what led to the site's closure and what it all means for people who rely on quality data.In the meantime, he's launched a Substack, Strength in Numbers, and has been writing about some notable trends, including how voters who are not very engaged with politics have dramatically shifted their attitudes about Donald Trump in just 6 months.We wrap with a fun fact about political prestige, and whether it's still something people respect. Of course, we kept G. Elliott on for this one.

******Support the channel******Patreon:https://www.patreon.com/thedissenterPayPal: paypal.me/thedissenterPayPal Subscription 1 Dollar:https://tinyurl.com/yb3acuuyPayPal Subscription 3 Dollars:https://tinyurl.com/ybn6bg9lPayPal Subscription 5 Dollars:https://tinyurl.com/ycmr9gpzPayPal Subscription 10 Dollars:https://tinyurl.com/y9r3fc9mPayPal Subscription 20 Dollars:https://tinyurl.com/y95uvkao ******Follow me on******Website:https://www.thedissenter.net/The Dissenter Goodreads list:https://shorturl.at/7BMoBFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedissenteryt/Twitter:https://x.com/TheDissenterYT This show is sponsored by Enlites, Learning & Development done differently. Check the website here:http://enlites.com/ Dr. Matt Grossmann is Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR) and Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center in Washington, DC, host of The Science of Politics Podcast and a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight's online political analysis. He is the author (with David A. Hopkins) of Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics. In this episode, we focus on Polarized by Degrees. We talk about the diploma divide, and trends that led to it since the 1980s. We discuss the demographics of the diploma divide, the “culture war” and how it manifests politically, the contrast between Obama and Trump, the divide between your men and young women, differences between Democrats and Republicans, and attitudes toward experts and institutions, the media, and corporations. We also talk about how the divide manifested in terms of policymaking during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we discuss whether there is a solution to this divide.--A HUGE THANK YOU TO MY PATRONS/SUPPORTERS: PER HELGE LARSEN, JERRY MULLER, BERNARDO SEIXAS, ADAM KESSEL, MATTHEW WHITINGBIRD, ARNAUD WOLFF, TIM HOLLOSY, HENRIK AHLENIUS, FILIP FORS CONNOLLY, ROBERT WINDHAGER, RUI INACIO, ZOOP, MARCO NEVES, COLIN HOLBROOK, PHIL KAVANAGH, SAMUEL ANDREEFF, FRANCIS FORDE, TIAGO NUNES, FERGAL CUSSEN, HAL HERZOG, NUNO MACHADO, JONATHAN LEIBRANT, JOÃO LINHARES, STANTON T, SAMUEL CORREA, ERIK HAINES, MARK SMITH, JOÃO EIRA, TOM HUMMEL, SARDUS FRANCE, DAVID SLOAN WILSON, YACILA DEZA-ARAUJO, ROMAIN ROCH, DIEGO LONDOÑO CORREA, YANICK PUNTER, CHARLOTTE BLEASE, NICOLE BARBARO, ADAM HUNT, PAWEL OSTASZEWSKI, NELLEKE BAK, GUY MADISON, GARY G HELLMANN, SAIMA AFZAL, ADRIAN JAEGGI, PAULO TOLENTINO, JOÃO BARBOSA, JULIAN PRICE, EDWARD HALL, HEDIN BRØNNER, DOUGLAS FRY, FRANCA BORTOLOTTI, GABRIEL PONS CORTÈS, URSULA LITZCKE, SCOTT, ZACHARY FISH, TIM DUFFY, SUNNY SMITH, JON WISMAN, WILLIAM BUCKNER, PAUL-GEORGE ARNAUD, LUKE GLOWACKI, GEORGIOS THEOPHANOUS, CHRIS WILLIAMSON, PETER WOLOSZYN, DAVID WILLIAMS, DIOGO COSTA, ALEX CHAU, AMAURI MARTÍNEZ, CORALIE CHEVALLIER, BANGALORE ATHEISTS, LARRY D. LEE JR., OLD HERRINGBONE, MICHAEL BAILEY, DAN SPERBER, ROBERT GRESSIS, IGOR N, JEFF MCMAHAN, JAKE ZUEHL, BARNABAS RADICS, MARK CAMPBELL, TOMAS DAUBNER, LUKE NISSEN, KIMBERLY JOHNSON, JESSICA NOWICKI, LINDA BRANDIN, GEORGE CHORIATIS, VALENTIN STEINMANN, PER KRAULIS, ALEXANDER HUBBARD, BR, MASOUD ALIMOHAMMADI, JONAS HERTNER, URSULA GOODENOUGH, DAVID PINSOF, SEAN NELSON, MIKE LAVIGNE, JOS KNECHT, LUCY, MANVIR SINGH, PETRA WEIMANN, CAROLA FEEST, MAURO JÚNIOR, 航 豊川, TONY BARRETT, BENJAMIN GELBART, NIKOLAI VISHNEVSKY, STEVEN GANGESTAD, AND TED FARRIS!A SPECIAL THANKS TO MY PRODUCERS, YZAR WEHBE, JIM FRANK, ŁUKASZ STAFINIAK, TOM VANEGDOM, BERNARD HUGUENEY, CURTIS DIXON, BENEDIKT MUELLER, THOMAS TRUMBLE, KATHRINE AND PATRICK TOBIN, JONCARLO MONTENEGRO, AL NICK ORTIZ, NICK GOLDEN, AND CHRISTINE GLASS!AND TO MY EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS, MATTHEW LAVENDER, SERGIU CODREANU, BOGDAN KANIVETS, ROSEY, AND GREGORY HASTINGS!

Send us a message! Really!This week on the Get More Smarter Podcast, new polling shows Americans are already sick of Trump 2.0; will shutting down FiveThirtyEight so nobody can get a good polling average help or hurt the 45th and 47th president and his flagging ratings? The White House is controlled by Republicans. The senate is controlled by Republicans. The House of Representatives is controlled by Republicans. The New York Times asks, 'Why won't Democrats stop the government shutdown?' Next, there is some real pain in store for the constituents of our favorite bread sandwich from Colorado's 3rd congressional district; will Rep. Jeff Hurd stand with the tens of thousands of people in his district who have healthcare because of Medicaid expansion, or will he side with Elon Musk and Donald Trump to kick them off their insurance and doom their rural hospitals to bankruptcy? Finally we check in with the most anti-family political party in the country, the Colorado GOP. But first...he was the first officially announced candidate for Colorado Attorney General! He's also the Boulder County District Attorney, and a former deli worker otherwise known as Colorado's Harvey Dent (but with just the one face). Michael Dougherty joins us to talk about his campaign to be the state's top cop in 2026.

Welcome back to Intellicast! Joining Brian Peterson on this jam-packed episode is Gabby Blados. They talk about conferences, data quality, as well as discuss some recent headlines from around the research world. Kicking off the episode, Brian and Gabby talk about the upcoming conferences, including SampleCon and Quirks Chicago. With Gabby attending Quirks, she gives Brian a preview of some of the topics, sessions, and activities she most looks forward to while in Chicago in early April. Next, Brian and Gabby turn their sights to the latest market research news, starting with the launch of the Global Data Quality Initiative updated Data Quality Pledge. Brian and Gabby discuss how they feel this is a step in the right direction to improve overall data quality. They are hesitant, though, since it is a pledge, and there is no one to hold people accountable to its standard other than self-regulation. They both agree that the pledge is probably a step toward some sort of regulation around data quality. In the second data quality story, they discuss the results and key takeaways from the new Data Quality Benchmarking Study released by the Insight Association. Brian and Gabby discuss some of the stats, including some that were somewhat surprising to both of them. You can get your free copy of the Insights Association Data Quality Benchmarking Report here. Next, Brian and Gabby talk about some of the recent headlines from around the market research industry, including ComScore's 2024 results, Glimpse's rebrand to Panoplai, and Disney shutting down FiveThirtyEight. In our final story, they touch on the reports about Kantar potentially looking to sell their Worldpanel/Numerator division. Thanks for listening! If you have headed to Pasadena for SampleCon, be sure to say hello to Kathleen Hock. If you will be in Chicago for Quirk, be sure to connect with Gabby or Abby Synder. Did you miss one of our webinars or want to get some of our whitepapers and reports? You can find it all on our Resources page on our website here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tragedy hit the once-marginalized psephological community last week when FiveThirtyEight closed shop. Henry hosts a celebration of life with two of its top contributors, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, to discuss the former outfit’s inconceivable achievement of mainstreaming political data journalism. The trio digs into the explosive history of innovative election modeling and explores the […]

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh discuss the ACC Tournament and the storied college basketball rivalry between UNC, Duke, and NC State. While once-mighty UNC and NC State navigate challenging seasons, Duke looks poised for a title run with Cooper Flagg at the helm. Later, sports writer Neil Paine joins the show to discuss NHL trade deadline drama, and to reflect on the closure of the data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, Neil Paine sticks around to break down the NASCAR Cup series debut of Katherine Legge. Triangle College Basketball (2:55): The state of North Carolina's powerhouse teams in the ACC NHL Trade Deadline (20:19): The Hurricanes'' surprising trade to Dallas of star Mikko Rantanen RIP 538 (42:07): Farewell to the analytical news and sports site that was about more than number crunching. (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Want more Hang Up and Listen? Subscribe to Slate Plus to immediately unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page, or visit slate.com/hangupplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh discuss the ACC Tournament and the storied college basketball rivalry between UNC, Duke, and NC State. While once-mighty UNC and NC State navigate challenging seasons, Duke looks poised for a title run with Cooper Flagg at the helm. Later, sports writer Neil Paine joins the show to discuss NHL trade deadline drama, and to reflect on the closure of the data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, Neil Paine sticks around to break down the NASCAR Cup series debut of Katherine Legge. Triangle College Basketball (2:55): The state of North Carolina's powerhouse teams in the ACC NHL Trade Deadline (20:19): The Hurricanes'' surprising trade to Dallas of star Mikko Rantanen RIP 538 (42:07): Farewell to the analytical news and sports site that was about more than number crunching. (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Want more Hang Up and Listen? Subscribe to Slate Plus to immediately unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page, or visit slate.com/hangupplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh discuss the ACC Tournament and the storied college basketball rivalry between UNC, Duke, and NC State. While once-mighty UNC and NC State navigate challenging seasons, Duke looks poised for a title run with Cooper Flagg at the helm. Later, sports writer Neil Paine joins the show to discuss NHL trade deadline drama, and to reflect on the closure of the data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, Neil Paine sticks around to break down the NASCAR Cup series debut of Katherine Legge. Triangle College Basketball (2:55): The state of North Carolina's powerhouse teams in the ACC NHL Trade Deadline (20:19): The Hurricanes'' surprising trade to Dallas of star Mikko Rantanen RIP 538 (42:07): Farewell to the analytical news and sports site that was about more than number crunching. (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Want more Hang Up and Listen? Subscribe to Slate Plus to immediately unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page, or visit slate.com/hangupplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello, media consumers! Bryan and Joel return to discuss the State of the Union address (2:04). Then, they break down the press surrounding NFL draft prospect Shedeur Sanders and the Bias Meter (21:40). They close by remembering 'Around The Horn' and FiveThirtyEight (56:43). Hosts: Bryan Curtis and Joel Anderson Producer: Stefan Anderson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Washington state legislature is looking to ban guns in even more places. The Washington Supreme Court struck down a challenge to signature verification on ballots. ABC News is shutting down FiveThirtyEight along with other jobs cuts. // Big Local: A 3.9 earthquake struck Port Angeles. Everett police are looking for a man that tried to kidnap a woman. A WSU astronomer says we’re going to have a ‘blood moon’ next week. A Bremerton boat builder is struggling with pauses in federal funding. // You Pick the Topic: Scientists have created a “Colossal woolly mouse” in preparation for recreating the woolly mammoth.

Live from GART Las Vegas, CannCon and Chris Paul bring the heat with a deep dive into Trump's latest masterclass in negotiation. He's shutting off Ukraine's missile intelligence until Zelensky gets in line, slashing USAID funding, and dropping the hammer on lawfare firms like Perkins Coie. Meanwhile, the Democrats are in full-blown panic mode, dropping cringeworthy Street Fighter-style videos and flailing in response to Trump's State of the Union takedown. Plus, ActBlue is imploding, FiveThirtyEight polling gets axed, and Andrew Bailey is demanding an investigation into Biden's cognitive decline...because who was actually running the country? It's a packed show from the heart of Vegas, so grab a drink and buckle up.  

2026 is OURS for the taking! Trump has set the tone for 2026 in scathing statement on the Democrats' conduct during his Joint Address. Disney has ended the failing polling outlet "FiveThirtyEight." Trump issues final ultimatum to Hamas to release the remaining hostages. Kash Patel confirms the arrest of one of the conspirators of the Abbey Gate bombing. Abbey Gate bomber conspirator was RELEASED from prison in Afghanistan during chaotic withdrawal weeks before the bombing. Join UNGOVERNED on LFA TV every MONDAY - FRIDAY from 10am to 11am EASTERN!   www.FarashMedia.com www.LFATV.us www.OFPFarms.com www.Switch2USA.com 

Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don't have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut.Follow Armchair Expert on the Wondery App or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch new content on YouTube or listen to Armchair Expert early and ad-free by joining Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Start your free trial by visiting wondery.com/links/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard/ now.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Andrea Jones-Rooy! Comedian! Scientist! Podcaster! Circus performer! Friend! Delight! More! Want more information? Well, you've come to the right place: ABOUT ANDREA JONES-ROOY Ph.D.: Andrea Jones-Rooy is a unique voice who combines science with comedy to empower audiences of any education level to utilize data and tools accessible to all. AJR helps people learn to cut through the noise, better understand our world, and emboldens them to act. AJR holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan. Formerly a professor of data science at NYU and a quantitative researcher at FiveThirtyEight, Andrea speaks and trains globally at organizations that include Fortune 500s, tech companies, and the UN, on how to apply data science to their toughest problems. She currently hosts the podcast Behind the Data, and previously hosted the podcast Majoring in Everything. AJR is also a stand-up comedian and circus performer, although she has done neither at the UN (yet). ABOUT THE PODCAST "BEHIND THE DATA" (SEASON 2 COMING SOON) Data is all around us, and it powers a lot of our world, but where does it come from? Who collects it? How do we know if it's any good? Each week data scientist and standup comedian Andrea Jones-Rooy, Ph.D. brings you a new story about the humans and decisions behind important data that influences our lives - from political polls to measures of democracy, from tracking happiness around the world to powering AI. Join us on a journey to understand why making sense of the world depends not just on our ability to analyze it, but on the data we source in the first place. At the heart of any data that matters are real human stories about why we care about what we do.  For example, crime data describes ‘reported crime', which is different from (and less-than) ‘actual crime'. The two deviate to differing extents for different crimes - auto theft has a high rate of reporting due to insurance claims, while rape is horrifyingly underreported. Andrea Jones-Rooy will discuss how to navigate this churning ocean of data in which we are all swimming (whether we want to or not). Joined by weekly expert guests, Andrea will bring her signature engaging style to investigate the ways data on polling, crime, jobs, movies, fitness, medicine, democracy, and happiness are created, and help us to understand what we can and cannot (yet) learn from it. If you are affected by ANY of these subjects (you are), you're not going to want to miss this podcast! Season 1 guests include: Dhrumil Mehta, Journalism professor at Columbia University, formerly database journalist at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Ben Casselman, New York Times economics and business reporter Christie Aschwanden, science journalist and author of the NYT bestselling book, Good to Go: What the Athlete in All of Us Can Learn from the Strange Science of Discovery Dr. Steven Novella, clinical neurologist and host The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe podcast Walt Hickey, pulitzer prize winning data journalist, author You Are What You Watch: How Movies and TV Affect Everything, creator and writer Numlock News And more! Behind the Data is produced as part of the Daily Tech News Show (DTNS) network, which is dedicated to providing news about technology that is easy to understand. With a unique blend of ‘smartypants' comedy and actual science, Andrea seeks to help listeners understand how data shapes the world, and to teach everybody (not just scientists) to use data to inform their thinking. Remember, data doesn't have to be a four letter word! ABOUT THE PODCAST CONVERSATION BETWEEN ME AND ANDREA: It is fun! Please enjoy! And this is only the first HALF of our conversation. For part two, subscribe via Apple Podcasts OR just head on over to Patreon!

Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate'. She is a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight.com, Politico, and The Washington Post. This episode covers what election results tell us about US politics, Trump's executive power vs control over party, how Congress may push back on Trump, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive  

John Sides is Professor of Political Science and William R. Kenan, Jr. Chair at Vanderbilt University. He studies political behavior in American and comparative politics. He is an author of The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy, Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and The Battle for the Meaning of America, and The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Election  He helped found Good Authority and its predecessor, The Monkey Cage, both of which are sites about political science and politics. He has also written for such outlets as FiveThirtyEight, the Boston Review, Bloomberg View, CNN, the Los Angeles Times, and the New York Times. He serves as Research Advisor to the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group. He received his B.A. from the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and his M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley. He previously taught at the University of Texas-Austin and George Washington University.

Senior Elections Analyst for FiveThirtyEight Geoffrey Skelley discusses whether or not Trump will have the votes to confirm his cabinet picks.

In this special episode of The Last Best Hope, we bring you a recording of a live event at the Rothermere American Institute in Oxford on Thursday, November 7. Adam Smith and guests discussed why the election turned out the way it did. The panellists are:Jason Casellas ABC News election decision desk. Jason Casellas is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Houston. He is an expert in Latino politics and has published widely on state and local politics.Clare Malone New Yorker staff writer. Clare Malone reports on politics, media, and journalism for the New Yorker. She previously covered both the 2016 and 2020 Presidential campaigns as a senior political writer for FiveThirtyEight.Mike Murphy Republican political strategist and media consultant. Mike Murphy has worked on the presidential campaigns of George H.W. Bush and John McCain. He also co-hosts the popular politics podcast Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod.Kimberley Johnson John G. Winant Visiting Professor of American Government. Kimberley Johnson is a Professor of Social and Cultural Analysis at New York University and an expert on racial and ethnic, and suburban and urban politics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A national outlook on the control of Congress with ABC reporter & FiveThirtyEight analyst Nathaniel Rakich updates us live on how many seats have been claimed and elections called – versus how much is still up for grabs.

 At the moment of this episode's release, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in election polls. How do you embrace risk, make informed decisions, and be prepared for any possible changes? In this episode, FiveThirtyEight founder and author of “On the Edge” Nate Silver discusses with Reason magazine's Editor-at-Large Nick Gillespie his thoughts on which direction the 2024 election may go and the ways risk-takers cultivate power and drive change.  Our Guest: Nate Silver, Leading Political Forecaster; Best-Selling Author; Founder and Former Editor-in-Chief of FiveThirtyEight    Nick Gillespie, Editor-at-Large of Reason, is the guest moderator.    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A week out from Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the critical battleground state. Harris held a moderate polling lead over Trump in Michigan after she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, but FiveThirtyEight's polling average now has her leading by just 0.4 points. Harris's struggles are due in part to declining support among Arab American voters in Michigan, who have been critical of the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza.Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to tanglemedia.supercast.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today's “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.Check out Episode 7 of our podcast series, The Undecideds. Please give us a 5-star rating and leave a comment!Take the survey: Who do you think will win Michigan? Let us knowYou can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Share this episode: https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/389-the-politics-of-risk Sam Harris speaks with Nate Silver about cultural attitudes toward risk and the state of American politics. They discuss the erosion of trust in liberal institutions, polling and political narratives, different camps of cultural elites, the influence of Silicon Valley, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Sam Bankman-Fried and the fall of FTX, Gell-Mann amnesia, Christopher Rufo, why Kamala Harris can’t admit to having changed her views, a problem with strict utilitarianism, AI and existential risk, what people misunderstand about election forecasting, which news events have affected the 2024 race, how current polls might be misleading, public vs. private polling, undecided and marginal voters, Gen Z, the gender divide, the likelihood that Trump won’t accept the election results if he loses, election integrity in the swing states, the chance of a landslide, the prospect of public unrest, and other topics. Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and poker player. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the New York Times best sellers The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't and On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. He writes the Substack Silver Bulletin. Twitter: @NateSilver538 Learning how to train your mind is the single greatest investment you can make in life. That’s why Sam Harris created the Waking Up app. From rational mindfulness practice to lessons on some of life’s most important topics, join Sam as he demystifies the practice of meditation and explores the theory behind it.

Nate Silver is a risk taker. On top of boldly and publicly forecasting elections as part of his website FiveThirtyEight, he's a regular poker player, and in just one season of basketball, he bet nearly 2 million dollars on games. He still doesn't have the foolproof winning formula figured out – even though that's the ultimate forecaster's promise – but that doesn't mean I wouldn't bet on him, or along with him. I have no interest in Vegas, but I can still apply Nate's life lessons about how to work hard, ask the right questions, and embrace failure as information. Follow me on Instagram at @davidduchovny. Stay up to date with Lemonada on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia. Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium. And if you want to continue the conversation with other listeners, join the My Lemonada community at https://lemonadamedia.com/mylemonada/ For a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this and every other Lemonada show, go to lemonadamedia.com/sponsors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Episode (10/21/2024): 3:05pm- On Sunday, Donald Trump put on an apron and worked the drive-thru at a McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania—where a massive crowd gathered to order French fries from the former president. While on the campaign trail, Kamala Harris has claimed she worked at McDonald's while a student in college—though, some have expressed doubts as no evidence of her employment seems to exist. One drive-thru customer even thanked Trump for “taking a bullet” for America. 3:30pm- Michael Reagan—Newsmax Media Contributor, President of The Reagan Legacy Foundation, Author, Motivational Speaker, & son of former President Ronald Reagan—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to talk about the film “Reagan” starring Dennis Quaid which is now available on all major digital retail platforms. Plus, Rich mentions the time he wrote a letter to Michael's father—and President Reagan actually wrote him back! During the conversation, Michael recalls amazing Reagan family stories including spending time with former Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev at the family ranch. 4:05pm- While working at a McDonald's drive-thru in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump spoke with reporters and hilariously declared, “I've now worked for 15-minutes more than Kamala [Harris]” ever has as a McDonald's employee. 4:10pm- Elizabeth Pipko—Spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to recap Donald Trump's weekend work as a French fry cooker at a McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania. Pipko notes that it was a great opportunity for voters to see first-hand how friendly and fun former president Trump is, despite the left-leaning media's attempt to demonize him. Pipko is a former model, a 2016 Trump campaign staffer, and author of the book, “Finding My Place: Making My Parents' American Dream Come True.” 4:30pm- Dave McCormick—Republican Candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania & former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during the George W. Bush Administration—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss Atlas Intel Polling having him leading for the first time in the PA Senate race (Atlas was the most accurate pollster in 2020), Trafalgar Group polling having him and Donald Trump leading in PA, Sen. Bob Casey melting down over a Washington Post fact check, and FiveThirtyEight revealing Casey voted with President Joe Biden 98.5% of the time. Plus, Senator John Barrasso—United States Senator from Wyoming—joins the show as well! McCormick and Sen. Barrasso are campaigning together throughout Pennsylvania right now. 4:50pm- While speaking with Margaret Hoover on PBS News, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D) conceded that Kamala Harris needs to clearly explain to voters why she has suddenly reversed her controversial preferences on domestic energy policy. 5:00pm- Congressman Mike Waltz—U.S. Representative for Florida's 6th Congressional District—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss his brand-new book, “Hard Truths: Think and Lead Like a Green Beret” which is available for pre-order now and will be available in bookstores tomorrow, October 22nd. Politico recently published an article examining what a hypothetical Trump cabinet might look like—Congressman Waltz was on the short list for Secretary of State and Defense Secretary. Plus, Congressman Waltz reacts to news that top-secret American documents have been leaked exposing Israel's future strike plans on Iran. 5:15pm- Last week, Kamala Harris sat down for an interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier. The two went head-to-head over border security, the economy, and her role in the Biden Administration. Following the interview, Baier said the conversation was a lot more “contentious” than he thought it would be. 5:20pm- On Sunday, Donald Trump put on an apron and worked the drive-thru at a McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania—where a massive crowd gathered to order French fries from the former president ...

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 2: 4:05pm- While working at a McDonald's drive-thru in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump spoke with reporters and hilariously declared, “I've now worked for 15-minutes more than Kamala [Harris]” ever has as a McDonald's employee. 4:10pm- Elizabeth Pipko—Spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to recap Donald Trump's weekend work as a French fry cooker at a McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania. Pipko notes that it was a great opportunity for voters to see first-hand how friendly and fun former president Trump is, despite the left-leaning media's attempt to demonize him. Pipko is a former model, a 2016 Trump campaign staffer, and author of the book, “Finding My Place: Making My Parents' American Dream Come True.” 4:30pm- Dave McCormick—Republican Candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania & former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during the George W. Bush Administration—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss Atlas Intel Polling having him leading for the first time in the PA Senate race (Atlas was the most accurate pollster in 2020), Trafalgar Group polling having him and Donald Trump leading in PA, Sen. Bob Casey melting down over a Washington Post fact check, and FiveThirtyEight revealing Casey voted with President Joe Biden 98.5% of the time. Plus, Senator John Barrasso—United States Senator from Wyoming—joins the show as well! McCormick and Sen. Barrasso are campaigning together throughout Pennsylvania right now. 4:50pm- While speaking with Margaret Hoover on PBS News, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D) conceded that Kamala Harris needs to clearly explain to voters why she has suddenly reversed her controversial preferences on domestic energy policy.

Rob Wiblin speaks with FiveThirtyEight election forecaster and author Nate Silver about his new book: On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.Links to learn more, highlights, video, and full transcript.On the Edge explores a cultural grouping Nate dubs “the River” — made up of people who are analytical, competitive, quantitatively minded, risk-taking, and willing to be contrarian. It's a tendency he considers himself a part of, and the River has been doing well for itself in recent decades — gaining cultural influence through success in finance, technology, gambling, philanthropy, and politics, among other pursuits.But on Nate's telling, it's a group particularly vulnerable to oversimplification and hubris. Where Riverians' ability to calculate the “expected value” of actions isn't as good as they believe, their poorly calculated bets can leave a trail of destruction — aptly demonstrated by Nate's discussion of the extended time he spent with FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried before and after his downfall.Given this show's focus on the world's most pressing problems and how to solve them, we narrow in on Nate's discussion of effective altruism (EA), which has been little covered elsewhere. Nate met many leaders and members of the EA community in researching the book and has watched its evolution online for many years.Effective altruism is the River style of doing good, because of its willingness to buck both fashion and common sense — making its giving decisions based on mathematical calculations and analytical arguments with the goal of maximising an outcome.Nate sees a lot to admire in this, but the book paints a mixed picture in which effective altruism is arguably too trusting, too utilitarian, too selfless, and too reckless at some times, while too image-conscious at others.But while everything has arguable weaknesses, could Nate actually do any better in practice? We ask him:How would Nate spend $10 billion differently than today's philanthropists influenced by EA?Is anyone else competitive with EA in terms of impact per dollar?Does he have any big disagreements with 80,000 Hours' advice on how to have impact?Is EA too big a tent to function?What global problems could EA be ignoring?Should EA be more willing to court controversy?Does EA's niceness leave it vulnerable to exploitation?What moral philosophy would he have modelled EA on?Rob and Nate also talk about:Nate's theory of Sam Bankman-Fried's psychology.Whether we had to “raise or fold” on COVID.Whether Sam Altman and Sam Bankman-Fried are structurally similar cases or not.“Winners' tilt.”Whether it's selfish to slow down AI progress.The ridiculous 13 Keys to the White House.Whether prediction markets are now overrated.Whether venture capitalists talk a big talk about risk while pushing all the risk off onto the entrepreneurs they fund.And plenty more.Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Rob's intro (00:01:03)The interview begins (00:03:08)Sam Bankman-Fried and trust in the effective altruism community (00:04:09)Expected value (00:19:06)Similarities and differences between Sam Altman and SBF (00:24:45)How would Nate do EA differently? (00:31:54)Reservations about utilitarianism (00:44:37)Game theory equilibrium (00:48:51)Differences between EA culture and rationalist culture (00:52:55)What would Nate do with $10 billion to donate? (00:57:07)COVID strategies and tradeoffs (01:06:52)Is it selfish to slow down AI progress? (01:10:02)Democratic legitimacy of AI progress (01:18:33)Dubious election forecasting (01:22:40)Assessing how reliable election forecasting models are (01:29:58)Are prediction markets overrated? (01:41:01)Venture capitalists and risk (01:48:48)Producer and editor: Keiran HarrisAudio engineering by Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongVideo engineering: Simon MonsourTranscriptions: Katy Moore

Are kids learning enough about how the world really works? This week, Emily hosts Lindsey Cormack, a thoughtful political science professor and author of How to Raise a Citizen (and Why It's Up to You to Do It), to talk about how we, as parents, can play a big role in raising engaged citizens.  They delve into Lindsey's experiences and research, demonstrating how schools frequently fail to teach students the fundamentals of government. They also look into what it means to be a 'citizen' and how we can encourage our children to be interested in politics.  You'll hear tips on having age-appropriate political discussions, tackling misinformation, and helping kids feel empowered to participate.  This conversation is a heartfelt reminder for all of us parents to step up and help guide our kids into becoming informed, active voters. Listen and Learn:  Lindsey's journey to writing a parenting book that empowers kids to understand politics Why young adults struggle with politics—and how family conversations can change the future Raising politically empowered kids with the autonomy to shape their communities How you, as a parent, can shape future citizens to strengthen democracy in an age of political disengagement Protecting your kids from misinformation by helping them understand politics better Developing non-cognitive skills through civic engagement and how this can empower your kids for life Can engaging in politics boost your kids' college prospects and help them become impactful leaders? How engaging in local politics can boost kids' mental health and empower them to create change Ways you can engage your kids in politics positively and navigate tough discussions about leaders How to model open-mindedness and flexible thinking for kids in political discussions! Should more states have the constitution test for kids? Nurturing political understanding in your kids, from ages 5 to 18 Why equipping kids to navigate politics is crucial for a better future, not just party loyalty Resources:  How to Raise a Citizen (and Why It's Up to You to Do It) https://www.lindseycormack.com/ https://twitter.com/DCInbox https://www.instagram.com/howtoraiseacitizen/ About Lindsey Cormack Lindsey Cormack is an associate professor of Political Science and Director of the Diplomacy Lab at Stevens Institute of Technology. She has authored two books, How to Raise a Citizen (And Why it's Up to You to Do It) and Congress and U.S. Veterans: From the GI Bill to the VA Crisis. She created and maintains the digital database of all official Congress-to-constituent e-newsletters at www.dcinbox.com. She earned her PhD in Government from New York University. She currently serves as the Secretary for Manhattan Community Board 8. Her research has been published in Political Behavior, Congress & the Presidency, Legislative Studies Quarterly, Political Science Research and Methods, American Politics Research, Politics & Policy, Politics Groups & Identities, Politics & Gender, The Journal of Gender Studies, Energy Economics, The Legislative Scholar as well as in popular outlets including the Bloomberg Businesswire, The New York Times, The Washington Post, FiveThirtyEight, ProPublica, Roll Call, The New York Post, NBC News, the LSE USCentre, and The Hill, The Conversation, The San Francisco Chronicle, and more. Related Episodes: 371. Uniting Toward a Better Future with Diana Smith 319. Autonomy-Supportive Parenting with Emily Edlynn 324. Toxic Achievement Culture with Jennifer Wallace 256. Social Justice Parenting with Traci Baxley 214. How to Raise Kids Who Aren't Jerks with Melinda Wenner Moyer https://offtheclockpsych.com/273-a-more-just-future-with-dolly-chugh/  https://offtheclockpsych.com/values-fulfillment-theory/ https://offtheclockpsych.com/205-thrivers-with-michele-borba/ https://offtheclockpsych.com/howtobeanadult/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michael talks to Allan Lichtman, Distinguished Professor of History at American University, and the co-founder of the "13 Keys to the White House" election predicton model. Original air date 4 October 2024.

Nate Silver is a statistician, a writer and Founder of FiveThirtyEight. No one truly knows who will win an election, but if anyone does, it's Nate. He is the man behind the most accurate, sophisticated polling data assessments in America and has an insight into modern culture like no one else. Expect to learn why this election cycle differs from other ones, just how complex election prediction models are, what the most important topics of this election are, whether there is ever a chance for a 3rd party option to become president, the role of the media in determining who wins and much more… Sponsors: See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals   Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: https://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: https://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: https://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can we still accurately model elections in such chaotic times? Are prediction markets the future of news? Nate Silver thinks so - Nate is a renowned election analyst, author and former professional poker player. He's the founder of FiveThirtyEight, whose statistical models revolutionized election forecasting, earning him national acclaim. His two books "On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything." and "Signal in Noise" are inspirations for today's Win-Win conversation with Liv and Igor. We discuss polling accuracy, the importance of prediction markets like Polymarket, poker thinking, solutions to political polarization, and of course his latest predictions on Trump vs Kamala. We also hear his theory on "The River" and "The Village" communities, defined by their opposing perspectives on risk - and how these contrasting worldviews shape approaches to everything from public health policy to technology. Chapters 00:01:34 - Predicting Elections 00:06:49 - Trump Assassination Attempt 00:11:45 - Prediction Markets 00:21:13 - Nate's New Book on Risk 00:25:53 - Institutional screwups on COVID 00:33:30 - Why are People so Averse to Probabilities? 00:35:27 - Silicon Valley's Blind Spots 00:40:43 - Excessively Risky Behavior 00:44:29 - Regulations 00:48:55 - Finding Common Ground 01:00:18 - Alternative Voting Structures 01:06:50 - Signal vs Noise in the AI age 01:12:15 - Advice for Sharpening Your Models 01:22:25 - Nate's Maxims For A Win-Win Future Links: ♾️ Nate's Blog: https://www.natesilver.net/ ♾️ Nate's Twitter: https://x.com/NateSilver538/ Credits: ♾️ Hosted and Produced by Liv Boeree and Igor Kurganov ♾️ Post-Production by Ryan Kessler The Win-Win Podcast: Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

For the first time, Kamala Harris' favorability rating has crossed into positive territory in FiveThirtyEight's latest polling averages. That's a crucial threshold, as Harris is introducing herself to votes within a highly compressed timetable. But there's still work to do: Harris has not yet fully rebuilt the coalition that ousted Donald Trump in 2020. We talked to Nick Ahamed, deputy executive director of the Democratic Super PAC Priorities USA, who walks us through the group's own interesting new polling in the swing states—and explains what now must be done for Harris to finish the job.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate Silver is an American statistician, poker player, and New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- but Some Don't . Nate's latest book is On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, where he dives into the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and more. These professional high risk-takers fall into the group that Nate describes as “The River”, a community of people that have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society.Nate came to the Daily Stoic studio to talk with Ryan about incentives in large media corporations with independent media, ethical challenges of audience capture, financial motives in journalism, conflicts between truth-seeking and profitability, the dynamics of tech versus traditional media, effective altruism, and much more. Nate is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and The Noise.

David Horsey - Seattle Times This week's agenda: Michigan in late summer is looking like Iowa in the winter: presidential candidates everywhere except the very weird RFK Jr. who is on the ballot despite his best efforts. We're days away from what may be the only Harris-Trump debate, with Trump previewing why he'll lose the debate … it's rigged. Can an endorsement make a real difference? We may find out as Liz Cheney says she's voting for Kamala Harris. Trump's apparent campaign strategy: skip Labor Day events to play golf, keep running against Joe Biden and using his Hillary playbook against Kamala Harris, explain his long-winded meandering diatribes as a brilliant tactic he calls “weaving” … then run off to Sean Hannity for an hour of softball batting practice. Meanwhile, there's a new call in Congress for investigating still another Trump crime: what looks like a $10-million dollar gift to Trump from Egypt. designed to hide an illegal foreign government campaign contribution. What should be shocking news has been mostly ignored. And then there's Russia Russia Russia: the Justice Department charges the Russians with running their third straight disinformation campaign in support of Trump's candidacy. Polling shows voters increasingly dug in to their respective tribes as the political polarization chasm grows. Our guest this week is MSU political science guru Matt Grossman discussing his new book explaining the continuing trend towards two Americas. Matt Grossmann is Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research – a.k.a. IPPSR – and Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University. He is the author of numerous books on our political world. His latest: "Polarized by Degrees". The work, written in collaboration with Boston College Political Scientist David A. Hopkins explores the nation's current political polarization and how it has caused a diploma divide between the parties. Grossmann is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center in Washington, DC, host of The Science of Politics Podcast and a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight's online political analysis. He has also published op-eds in The New York Times and The Washington Post. He was named Director of IPPSR in January 2016. IPPSR is a policy, leadership and research unit within MSU's College of Social Science conducting more than $1.5 million in grant- or contract-funded research and raising more than $300,000 in donations annually. =========================== This episode is sponsored in part by EPIC ▪ MRA, a full service survey research firm with expertise in • Public Opinion Surveys • Market Research Studies • Live Telephone Surveys • On-Line and Automated Surveys • Focus Group Research • Bond Proposals - Millage Campaigns • Political Campaigns & Consulting • Ballot Proposals - Issue Advocacy Research • Community - Media Relations • Issue - Image Management • Database Development & List Management Pat Bagley - Salt Lake Tribune ===========================

To win a high-stakes poker game, the ability to calculate risk is essential – and it's a skill that can carry over to everyday life. Nate Silver is a statistician and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com and writer of the Substack “Silver Bulletin.” He joins host Krys Boyd to discuss how risk-takers win big, how to calculate pros and cons of major decisions, and to weigh in on what to expect in this year's presidential election. His book is “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.”

In his second appearance, Nate Silver joins the show to cover the intersections of predictions, politics, and poker with Tyler. They tackle how coin flips solve status quo bias, gambling's origins in divination, what kinds of betting Nate would ban, why he's been limited on several of the New York sports betting sites, how game theory changed poker tournaments, whether poker players make for good employees, running and leaving FiveThirtyEight, why funky batting stances have disappeared, AI's impact on sports analytics, the most underrated NBA statistic, Sam Bankman-Fried's place in “the River,” the trait effective altruists need to develop, the stupidest risks Tyler and Nate would take, prediction markets, how many monumental political decisions have been done under the influence of drugs, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Recorded July 22nd, 2024. Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Follow Nate on X Sign up for our newsletter Join our Discord Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here.

What can we learn from professional risk-takers—poker players, hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors— about how to navigate the uncertainty of the twenty first century? Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, seeks to answer that question in his new book “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” In Silver's world view, risk takers are adept with details and planning, they are not motivated by money, they practice conscientious contrarianism, and they are all around us. We talk to Silver about his book, his poker playing and what the polls tell us about the November elections. Guests: Nate Silver, author, "On the Edge:" The Art of Risking Everything", Silver founded the website FiveThirtyEight, and is also the author of the bestselling book, "The Signal and the Noise." His newsletter is titled "Silver Bulletin"

Most humans are cautious by nature. We naturally like to do what's comfortable and safe. But comfortable and safe don't usually lead to. . . well, success. In fact, the most successful people in the world share something in common: They love risk.  That's true of the best poker players, hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and crypto traders. All of these people consider statistics; they embrace uncertainty; and they make bold predictions that ultimately pay off for themselves—and sometimes for humanity.  How do they do it? Our guest today, Nate Silver, has a theory on what drives successful people, how they think, and how they achieve enormous success—or, at times, catastrophic failure. He just wrote an entire book about it. On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything analyzes these types of people and the principles that guide their risky decision-making—which, he argues, is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy. Nate, one of the most sophisticated thinkers on risk and uncertainty, is a statistician, sports analyst, professional poker player, and the founder of FiveThirtyEight, a website that revolutionized political reporting with its data-driven election predictions.  Today, Nate discusses why it's important to take more risks, and how he sees the current election playing out.  If you hear statistics and data and probability and analytics and roll your eyes, we get it. But this is a conversation that goes beyond all that. Nate explains what frustrates him about his critics, why he is happy to no longer be affiliated with FiveThirtyEight, and how his biggest passion—poker—helped him become one of the world's most famous prognosticators. Header 6: The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to "Behind The Data". We all know that data is all around us -- it powers every algorithm, predictive model, and AI tool that is revolutionizing our lives. But where does it come from? Who collected it? How do we know if it's any good? For every dataset shaping our lives, there is a person or team making impactful decisions about what to track and how to track it that we are barely talking about. In this show we go behind the data to understand the stories and incentives behind how all this data came to be, why it matters for our lives, and how we can play a role in shaping it going forward.Starring Andrea Jones-Rooy, Dhrumil MehtaAndrea Jones-Rooy: www.datascienceneedsyou.com, www.instagram.com/jonesrooyGuest Dhrumil Mehta: https://dhrumilmehta.com, https://twitter.com/datadhrumilMaterials referenced in the show:Example polling tracker (the current version is not one that Dhrumil and I worked on): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/Nate Silver article, "The Media Has a Probability Problem", FiveThirtyEightHarry Enten article, "Fake Polls are a Real Problem", FiveThirtyEightHarry Enten article, "Trump is Just a Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton", FiveThirtyEightDhrumil's polls LLM: http://pollfinder.ai

Join Jessi as she interviews Nate Silver, renowned statistician and author of On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. Known for his pioneering work in political forecasting and data analysis, Nate founded the website FiveThirtyEight and gained prominence with his accurate predictions for the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. In this episode, Nate draws on his expertise to offer practical advice on evaluating major decisions and navigating uncertainty. Discover how taking calculated risks can boost your career, education, and investments, as Nate reveals the essential traits of successful risk-takers and provides insights on balancing risk and caution effectively. Join the Hello Monday community and continue the conversation with us: Subscribe to the Hello Monday newsletter Join us this week and every week for Hello Monday Office Hours, Wednesdays at 3p ET on the LinkedIn News page Join our free LinkedIn group for Hello Monday listeners

Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and Substack writer of “Silver Bulletin,” joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “ON THE EDGE: The Art of Risking Everything.” We hear about the role of risk in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, and his thoughts on Kamala Harris's VP pick. Follow Nate, @NateSilver538. Follow the podcast across socials @profgpod: Instagram Threads X Reddit Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Buy "The Algebra of Wealth," out now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

FiveThirtyEight founder and political prognosticator Nate Silver is out with a new book, “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” Silver discusses the margin for error in 2024 Presidential election polling, as well as the art of risk and betting on everything, from sports to elections. On the 89th anniversary of Social Security, CNBC's Sharon Epperson reports that 69% of the Americans polled by CNBC ranked social security a top issue in deciding their votes in the election, and over 70% of adults polled were concerned about the program running out. Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O'Malley explains the program's longevity and proposed reform. Plus, the Department of Justice is considering pursuing a breakup of Google parent Alphabet, and activist investor Elliott Management is gearing up for a proxy fight at Southwest Airlines. Sharon Epperson - 11:46Martin O'Malley - 15:39Nate Silver - 25:30 In this episode:Nate Silver, @NateSilver538Sharon Epperson, @Sharon_EppersonMelissa Lee, @melissaleecnbcAndrew Ross Sorkin,@andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer,@Kramer_Katie

We have a guest-filled hour with two great conversations headed your way. First, Charles Barkley stops by to chat about Team USA Men's Basketball's gold medal, whether the dream team could beat modern-day South Sudan, his TNT contract, the future of Inside the NBA, and why the folks behind the scenes at TNT matter the most to him. Then, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is here to discuss his new book "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything" and to explain how he looks at the world as a giant sports bet, his own NBA gambling, why 2016 Presidential poll predictions were so off base, and fame for nerds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Megyn Kelly is joined by Nate Silver, author of "On the Edge," to discuss his exit from ABC's FiveThirtyEight last year, how ABC didn't understand the value of the product, FiveThirtyEight's projections this year that overweighted Biden's chances, the challenge of seeing something you built turn into something you don't support, the excitement and opportunity in independent media, how he got into politics through gambling, how his election forecast considers all different polls, why Kamala Harris is currently leading, why Trump could still be the better bet to win, what's likely to happen in the final months of the election, Elon Musk's shift to conservative and supporting Trump as president, Silver's own political point of view as a moderate liberal and whether his position will evolve more in the future, the value of risk-taking, what poker tells us about the world, and more. Then Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz, authors of "Stolen Youth," join to discuss the massive conversation on X Spaces between Musk and Trump, some on the left calling for Musk to be censored and even arrested over his comments and platforming, the prescriptions for how Trump and his campaign need to get back on track, why he should focus on policies that resonate with swing voters and independents, questions about his COVID policies and his VP JD Vance's media tour, the threats against Douglas Murray for making honest comments about the rise of radical Islamists in Europe, the anti-Jewish Imam associated with Democratic VP pick Tim Walz, the anti-Israel college student protests starting again soon, Glenn Close's gross comments about Vance, and more.Silver- https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/Mandel-https://x.com/bethanyshondarkMarkowicz- https://x.com/karol Lumen: Visit https://lumen.me/MEGYN to get 15% off your LumenElectronic Payments Coalition: https://ElectronicPaymentsCoalition.org Follow The Megyn Kelly Show on all social platforms:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/MegynKellyTwitter: http://Twitter.com/MegynKellyShowInstagram: http://Instagram.com/MegynKellyShowFacebook: http://Facebook.com/MegynKellyShow Find out more information at: https://www.devilmaycaremedia.com/megynkellyshow

Being rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, Silver examines a set of traits characterizing people who welcome risks.Support Mindscape on Patreon.Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/08/12/285-nate-silver-on-prediction-risk-and-rationality/Nate Silver received a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago. He worked as a baseball analyst, developing the PECOTA statistical system (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). He later founded the FiveThirtyEight political polling analysis site. His first book, The Signal and the Noise, was awarded the Phi Beta Kappa Society Book Award in Science. He is the co-host (with Maria Konnikova) of the Risky Business podcast.SubstackWikipediaAmazon author pageSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In Episode 375 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Nate Silver, political forecaster, poker player, and founder of FiveThirtyEight, about the 2024 U.S. elections and the battle between Silicon Valley elites and the D.C. establishment for control over the country. In the first hour, Demetri asks Nate for his views about the political battle taking place between Silicon Valley elites (VCs and tech founders) and the coastal establishment of D.C. insiders and legacy media journalists. They discuss the internecine political movements of effective altruism and accelerationism within Silicon Valley, the loss of faith in political institutions, Americans' polarizing risk preferences, and what all of this reveals about the nature and soundness of our political economy heading into the 2024 U.S. elections. In the second hour, Demetri drills Nate on the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, the tightness of the presidential race, and who he thinks is best positioned to win the presidency in November. They debate Kamala's choice for vice president, the pros and cons of J. D. Vance as Trump's VP pick, Kamala and Trump's respective approaches to doing media, favorability scores, swing state strategies, and much more. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/05/2024

You probably know Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, as the statistician with an uncanny knack for predicting election results. What you may not know is that Nate has never been comfortable inside the Beltway. Before his election models made him famous, he made his living playing poker, and it's in that world that he feels most at home. Recently, Nate has been reflecting on his poker-playing pals, and he realized many of them are part of a broader community of analytically-minded, hyper-competitive, not-afraid-to-bet-the-house individuals that he now calls "the River." They're tech titans, Masters of the Universe — increasingly, it feels like they run the world. How the River rose to power and what that means for the rest of us is the subject of Nate's sprawling new book, "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.”

Nate Silver is a statistician, poker player, and political forecaster. Silver transformed his affinity for mathematics as a child into analyzing and predicting sports and elections alike. In 2008, Silver founded FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation website and blog. Soon after, he was named as one of the world's 100 most influential people by Time Magazine, recognized for the remarkable accuracy of his election forecasting system. Delving into the world of probability, statistics, and ultimately seeking truth from data, Silver is the best-selling author of The Signal and the Noise and On The Edge.  ------ Thank you to the sponsors that fuel our podcast and our team: Squarespace https://squarespace.com/tetra ------ Lucy https://lucy.co/tetra ------ LMNT Electrolytes https://drinklmnt.com/tetra ------ House of Macadamias https://www.houseofmacadamias.com/tetra

With President Biden forcefully declaring that he isn't leaving the presidential race, the latest polling looks frightening. The Cook Political Report just released new polling averages showing Donald Trump leading Biden nationally by three points. FiveThirtyEight's averages also look grim. New swing state polls show Trump dominating. But Ron Klain, the former White House chief of staff to Biden, nonetheless maintains that Biden is still the Democrat with the best shot against Trump. We invited Klain on the show, and he fielded some hard questions while making an expansive case that Biden still has a path.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Polling specialists FiveThirtyEight have released their 2024 election forecast; Stu Burguiere breaks down their results and speculates on what could change for Joe Biden and Donald Trump before November. Then, BlazeTV host Sara Gonzales joins to discuss the results of her voter fraud investigation around the country. And Stu looks at the different sentencing options Hunter Biden might be facing after his conviction on gun charges. TODAY'S SPONSORS   BESPOKE POST Get a free Mystery Gift with your first monthly shipment when you sign up at http://www.BoxOfAwesome.com and enter the code ‘STU' at checkout   JASE EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS ANTIBIOTICS Go to http://www.Jase.com today and enter code “STU” at checkout for a discount on your order   REAL ESTATE AGENTS I TRUST For more information, please visit http://www.RealEstateAgentsITrust.com   CONSTITUTION WEALTH MANAGEMENT If you have 250k or more of stock and bond investments and would like to reduce your exposure to woke companies, go to http://www.ConstitutionWealth.com/STU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices