Podcasts about PredictIt

Domer is a prediction market trader, and is one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket. He talks about his journey from Intrade, to Predictit, to Polymarket. He also talks about the 2024 election, which was a rollercoaster. It featured highs - like backing Kamala Harris before President Joe Biden had even dropped out of the race - and also lows, like being short Trump on election night.Domer also talks about unraveling the mystery of the so-called French Whale.Domer on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344Domer on Twitter: https://x.com/DomahhhhSupport the show by subscribing on Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.comFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly

In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death threats 18:01: Trump VP pick in 2016 19:57: Blitz's methodology in 2024 26:26: Blue wall 29:52: Florida early vote 33:34: Nevada early turnout 37:50: Georgia 38:08: 2020 41:18: Women/abortion 42:01: Black voters 44:26: Polls 52:21: Concerns about democracy 1:01:30: Political bias Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/x @pjchougule Trade on tweet markets and many more at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood of confirmation 33:46: Republican Senators 46:41: Influence of Hegseth markets 46:56: Sexual harrassment allegations Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers  Trade on Hegseth's nomination at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804670342 https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed/will-pete-hegseth-be-confirmed-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804692254 https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary/will-pete-hegseth-be-trumps-defense-secretary?tid=1736804733018 Join us for our first DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup of the year! This will be a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Location is TBD but you'll be notified when we've finalized a venue. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend this month: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-people-will-attend-a-forec-OzPZILyc5C?play=true Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments. Timestamps 0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments 1:18: Call to support SSG 2:16: Golden Modelos 2:58: Intro ends 4:59: Trump segment begins 7:12: Trump's strategy 7:35: 4-D Chess? 25:45: Sarah Palin 33:02: Golden Modelos Worst Trade 39:03: Golden Modelos Best Fight Bet on Trump administration appointments at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Learn how prediction markets work, the legal gray areas in which they operate, and how they could be regulated in the future. What are prediction markets like PredictIt, Polymarket and Kalshi, and how do they work? Is it legal to bet on elections in the United States? Hosts Tess Vigeland and Anna Helhoski welcome Sam Taube, the writer of the Nerdy Investor email newsletter, to break down how event contracts operate, explore the legal gray areas of election betting, and discuss whether prediction markets are a smart financial move—or just gambling in disguise. Then, Tess and Anna break down this week's money headlines, including the latest inflation figures and what they mean for interest rates, the CFPB's plan to enforce new click-to-cancel subscription rules, and Spirit Airlines' Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. In this episode, the Nerds discuss: how prediction markets work, betting on elections, event contracts explained, investing vs gambling, election betting legality, gambling vs investing, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event contracts legality, prediction market regulation, prediction markets news, event contracts explained simply, and Consumer Price Index. To send the Nerds your money questions, call or text the Nerd hotline at 901-730-6373 or email podcast@nerdwallet.com. Like what you hear? Please leave us a review and tell a friend.

Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps  0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting 8:06: District court case 10:37: Gaming 15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling 18:17: DC Circuit appeal 18:30: DC Circuit court judges 30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts 33:07: Foreign prediction markets 35:27: Behnam comments on UK betting scandal 36:33: Kid Rock manipulation anecdote 38:33: Manipulation in prediction markets Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Sign up for the Forecasting Meetup Network: https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8

On the latest episode of Two Think Minimum, TPI hosts Tom Lenard, Sarah Oh Lam, and Scott Wallsten explore the world of polls and prediction markets with Aristotle CEO John Phillips and General Counsel David Mason. Aristotle helps run PredictIt, a platform which enables research into how markets can forecast events in real-time. The conversation covers how PredictIt is navigating CFTC regulation, the broad value of small-dollar prediction markets to understanding public opinion and risk forecasting, and how PredictIt determines which questions to create contracts for. This episode offers valuable insights for anyone interested in the intersection of market dynamics, public opinion, and data-driven insights.

In the week leading up to election day, presidential election contracts on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt all indicated Donald Trump had a wider lead ahead of Kamala Harris than traditional polls. In his first-ever TV interview, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan discusses his company's role in elections and the rising popularity of prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on election outcomes. The Wall Street Journal's Tim Higgins highlights Elon Musk's influence among young men, saying Musk gave them “purpose” in voting for Trump. Plus, the House race remains uncalled, smart ring maker Oura is out with a new report on election day stress levels, and Wall Street awaits the Federal Reserve's next rate cut decision. Shayne Coplan - 14:51Tim Higgins - 32:15 In this episode: Shayne Coplan, @shayne_coplanTim Higgins, @timkhigginsBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY

European bourses generally trade very modestly in positive territory, alongside slight gains in US futures.PredictIt odds shifted over the weekend in favour of a Harris election victory; NYT/Siena final polls showed the race was deadlocked in 6/7 battleground states.USD is on the backfoot as a shift in polling in the US election towards Harris has seen a scaling back of "Trump trades" across the board.USTs benefit from a scaling back of the Trump trade, whilst Bunds lag; reports suggesting that China's NPC is reviewing local government debt swaps weighed on the complex.Crude benefits amid reports that OPEC+ agreed to delay the December oil output increase by one month; base metals move higher in anticipation of the ongoing China NPC meeting.Looking ahead, US Employment Trends, Durable Goods, Australian PMIs (Final), Comments from ECB's Elderson, Holzmann, Supply from the US. Earnings from Fidelity National Information Services, NXP Semiconductors, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Diamondback Energy, Palantir Technologies, Marriott International & Fox.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly positive but with the gains capped ahead of this week's major risk events including the US Presidential Election.PredictIt odds shifted over the weekend in favour of a Harris election victory; NYT/Siena final polls showed the race was deadlocked in 6/7 battleground states.European equity futures are indicative of a steady cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 1.0% on Friday.DXY is softer vs. peers in a scaling back of the USD supportive "Trump trade"; JPY and antipodeans have been the main beneficiaries.OPEC+ agreed to delay the December oil output increase by one month, according to a Reuters source.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Sentix Index, Manufacturing PMIs, US Employment Trends, US Durable Goods, Australian PMIs (Final), Comments from ECB's Elderson, Supply from EU & US.Earnings from Volvo Car AB, Ryanair, Kingspan, Fidelity National Information Services, NXP Semiconductors, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Diamondback Energy, Palantir Technologies, Marriott International & Fox.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in. Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign. Read More at Bloomberg.com:https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS https://bloom.bg/3X54rNPSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jon canvasses with his mom. David makes his final PredictIt trade. Support us on Patreon at http://patreon.com/electionprofitmakers Send your election prediction questions to contact@electionprofitmakers.com Watch David's show DICKTOWN on Hulu http://bit.ly/dicktown

This week we talk about DJT, Polymarket, and Kalshi.We also discuss sports betting, gambling, and PredictIt.Recommended Book: Build, Baby, Build by Bryan CaplanTranscriptTrump Media & Technology Group, which trades under the stock ticker DJT, has seen some wild swings since it became a publicly tradable business entity in late-March of 2024.The Florida-based holding company for Truth Social, a Twitter-clone that was released in early 2022 following former President Donald Trump's ousting from Twitter—that ousting the result of his denial of his loss in the 2020 presidential election—is a bit of an odd-bird in the technology and media space, as while it's ostensibly an umbrella corporation for many possible Trump-themed business entities, Truth Social is the only one that's gotten off the ground so far, and that platform hasn't done well in traditional business or even aspirational tech-business terms: a financial disclosure in November of 2023 indicated that the network had tallied a cumulative loss of at least $31.5 million since it was launched, and the holding company's numbers were even worse: when they filed their regulatory paperwork in March of 2024, they noted that Trump Media & Technology Group had lost $327.6 million, while making a mere $770,000 in revenue.Those kinds of numbers, the company hemorrhaging money, would be a huge problem if DJT was a typical media business, or business of any kind, really. But for most people who invest in the company's stock, this entity seems to be less a traditional stock holding, like you might buy shares of NVIDIA or Coca-Cola, hoping to earn dividends or see the value of the stock increase over time based on the performance and assumed future performance of the company in question, but instead it seems to operate as a means of betting on Trump and his political aspirations: many people who have been asked why they're buying the stock of a clearly fumbling company say that they do it because they like Trump and what he stands for, and some have suggested they assume the stock will do much better if and when he's back in office.Other entities, especially those who oppose Trump and his politics, have pointed out that this publicly traded business provides foreign and US entities an easy, and easily deniable means of basically bribing Trump—or getting on his good side, if you want to use less charged language—as they could simply, and legally pick up a large number of shares, raising the price of the stock, which in turn increases the size of Trump's fortune, which he could then, if he so chooses, cash out of at some point, but in the mean time this allows him to do the more typical rich person thing and just borrow money against the non-money, stock assets he owns.All of which would be difficult to prove, which is part of why this would, in theory, be an excellent means of funneling money to someone who might hold the reins of power in the near-future, if one were so inclined to do so.But at the moment that's all speculation, and with ongoing investigations into other purported bribery schemes on the part of Trump and his campaign, it's not clear that Trump would need DJT in order to get money into his coffers, as more direct approaches—like simply depositing ten million dollars into his campaign account from Egypt's state-run bank, seem more straightforward, and just as unlikely to result in any kind of pushback from the US's oversight panels, based on how they've addressed that particular accusation so far, at least.Of course, some people are simply looking for points of leverage anywhere they can find it, not for political or regulatory manipulation purposes, but to earn money by gambling on assets that change value in dramatic and seemingly predictable ways.For day traders and other arbitrage-seekers, then, a stock that goes up and down based on the perceived successes and failures of a public figure who's constantly saying and doing things that can be construed in different ways by different people is an appealing target, even lacking a political motivation for tracking (and perhaps even influencing, to a limited degree) those numbers.What I'd like to talk about today is another type of political betting, and how a recent court case may make politics in the US a lot more tumultuous, maybe more measurable, and possibly more profitable, for some.—In mid-2021, a New York-based online prediction market called Kalshi launched in the US, and this service was meant to serve as a platform through which users could place bets—in the form of trades—on all sorts of things, ranging from when the Fed would next cut interest rates, and by how much, to who would win various global awards, like the Nobel in chemistry.Bets can only be placed on yes or no questions, which shapes the nature of said questions, and delineates the sorts of questions that can be asked, and in general the platform pays out a dollar for each winning contract—so if you buy one contract saying the Republican party will control the House after November's election, and they do, you would win a dollar, but if they don't, you would lose whatever money you spent to buy that contract—and these contracts can be purchased for sums that are based on how likely the event is currently expected to be: so if there's a low chance, based on all available variables, that the Republicans will take the House, that contract might cost substantially less than a dollar to purchase, whereas if it's likely they'll take it, it would cost close to a dollar—so the payout is larger for events considered to be unlikely.The original idea behind Kalshi, and similar platforms, of which there are many, operating in many different places around the world, was to provide investors with a hedge against events that are otherwise difficult to work into one's asset portfolio.It's relatively simple to have a bunch of bets that will pay out big time if the US economy does well, for instance, and simple enough to buy counter-bets that will pay out decently well if it does badly—many investors buying some of each, so they're not wiped out, no matter what happens—but there are all sorts of things that can mess with one's otherwise well-balanced investment strategies, like the emergence of global pandemics and the surprise decision of the UK to leave the European Union.If you can place bets that will pay out big-time when unlikely things happen, though, that can help re-balance a financial loss that arises from the occurrence of said unlikely events; if you lose a bunch of money from your stock portfolio because the UK voted for Brexit, but you also bought a bunch of contracts on this kind of market that would pay out substantially if Brexit was successful, you'll reach a kind of equilibrium that isn't as simple to achieve using other markets, because of how difficult it can be to directly link a stock or bond with that kind of not-directly-financial event.So Kalshi pitched itself as that kind of alternative asset market, predicated on bets, but while they had a license from the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, to function as a contract market in the States, acquired the year before they launched, their proposal to start a political prediction market, which would allow folks to bet on which party would control the US congress, was denied by the CFTC in September of 2023, the agency claiming that allowing such bets would create bad incentives in the electoral process, and that offering these sorts of contracts would violate US market regulations for derivatives.A judge ruled in Kalshi's favor a year later, in September of 2024, saying that the agency had exceeded its authority in banning this type of contract-issuance by Kalshi, and while the CFTC attempted to stall that component of their market's implementation, on October 2 of this year, a federal appeals court ruled in Kalshi's favor, and the platform was thus formally allowed to offer contracts that served as a betting market for US politics on which actual money could be lost and earned.That last point is important, as throughout this process, and even before Kalshi was launched, other betting markets have been common, including those that have allowed bets on US political happenings.It's just that the majority of them, and the ones that have persisted and grown in the US in particular, haven't allowed folks to bet actual money on these things: they've allowed, in some cases, the betting of on-platform tokens, which represent credibility, not money, though a few money-trading entities, like PredictIt, have been on the agency's radar, but in PredictiIt's case, it was granted what amounts to a “we won't take action against you, despite what you're doing being questionable” letter from the CFTC, which until Kalshi's case turned out in their favor, meant PredictIt was one of the few, large-scale, reputable real-money political prediction markets available in the US.Not all such markets have been so lucky, but that luck has been highly correlated with their approach to handling money, the structure of the company, and the degree to which they've been willing to play ball with the CFTC and other interested agencies.All that said, we've reached an interesting point in which these markets have conceivably become more serious and useful, because rather than relying on not-real tokens that have no actual value to anyone—so you could create an account on one of these sites, bet all your tokens on a silly position that makes no sense, and suffer no consequences for that bet—we now have platforms that allow folks to put their money where their beliefs are, which in turn should theoretically make these markets more reliable in terms of showing what a certain segment of the population actually believes; how likely different candidates are to win, different parties are to hold Congress, and how likely various bills are to be passed into law.Interestingly, though, that theory may already be destined for the dustbin, as one of the larger betting platforms, Polymarket—which allows folks to place bets on all sorts of things using a crypto asset called USDC, and which isn't regulated by the CFTC because its operations are not based in the US—is experiencing what looks like market manipulation, possibly meant to sway poll forecasts that take these sorts of markets into account.What that means in practice is that of the nearly $2 billion in bets that have been placed on the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election on Polymarket, as of the day I'm recording this, about $30 million seems to have been recently bet by just four accounts, all of which have behaved so similarly that a report from the Wall Street Journal posits that they might be the same person, or a collection of people operating alongside each other.In any case, the net-impact of this investment, which landed in late-October, was to bump Trump's odds of winning to 60% from where it was previously, at 53.3%.There's a chance, of course, that this is just the result of a person or some people with money wanting to earn what they consider to be an easy buck, betting on the candidate they think is most likely to win, and there's also a chance that they're plowing that money into this bet in order to show support for their favored candidate.But there's also a chance that this is the first example, at this scale at least, of betting market manipulation that's sizable enough to shift the balance of polls that take betting market numbers into consideration.Some of the poll predictions you in see in the news work these numbers from these betting markets into their formulae alongside the findings of more conventional polling entities, basically, so if you have tens of millions of dollars to throw into this kind of market, you can bump your favored candidate's seeming chances significantly higher, which then in turn can make it seem like that candidate has achieved a surge in support more broadly—despite that seeming support actually just having been bought and paid for by one or a few enthused supporters on this kind of market.So if it does turn out that this is a conscious effort on someone's part to shift perceptions of the election—maybe big-time Trump fans, maybe someone affiliated with him or one of the PACs trying to get him elected—that could be a big deal, especially considering that Trump and his people have said that they won't accept the outcome of the election if they don't win, and if they can show strong expectations, or seeming expectations in the shape of favorable poll numbers that their candidate was meant to win, that could be a point of seeming evidence in favor of their argument that there was voter manipulation by their opponent; this of course wouldn't be the case, but because of how the news, and even more so social media platforms, sometimes present superficial versions of what's actually happening, seeing the candidate who had 60% support lose could seem like a valid argument at a highly charged post-election moment, despite all the other evidence to the contrary.One more important point to make here is that election markets don't actually represent probabilities—they represent a relatively small population of people's expectations or hopes about what will happen.It's in the interest of these markets to imply that there's substantial meaning and real-deal data in their numbers, but that's mostly marketing copy to try to get more people involved; at the end of the day, these markets are often wrong, are populated by outliers who don't represent the voting public, and in many cases they're heavily biased in all sorts of directions—some of them more popular with folks on the left, some more popular with folks on the right, and some more popular with folks who just love making big bets that feel like gambling, and in some cases creating chaos or funny outcomes just for laughs.On that final point, it's worth mentioning that sports gambling has recently become legal, to some degree at least, across much of the United States, and this has already become a huge industry, representing an expected $14.3 billion in 2024, alone, with an anticipated annual growth of something like 10%, which is astonishing for something that was mostly illegal until just recently—the Supreme Court decision that paved the way for it as a nation-spanning market was only made in 2018.So there's a chance that these prediction markets will boom, as there's clearly an appetite for betting on stuff in the US, as a form of entertainment, as a means to try to get ahead, and potentially as a way to put one's money where one's mouth is.Though all of these incentives and purposes could potentially make these markets less valuable for political researchers hoping to better understand odds, as the incentives may or may not align with those that lead to more accurate predictions, and there's no way to really know how those post-money-injection numbers will align with actual voting tallies, or fail to do so, until we have more data about this and other near-future elections' outcomes.Show Noteshttps://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/how-investors-are-betting-on-the-election-from-utility-stocks-to-djt-c2b9e838https://www.yahoo.com/news/hes-sale-trump-djt-stock-001901595.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/03/trump-egypt-democrats-letter.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_Socialhttps://www.axios.com/2024/09/10/prediction-markets-electionhttps://stanfordreview.org/kalshis-court-victory-a-turning-point-for-prediction-markets-2/https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/harris-trump-election-betting-00182432https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_markethttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/prediction-market.asphttps://www.axios.com/2024/09/16/prediction-markets-electionhttps://asteriskmag.com/issues/05/prediction-markets-have-an-elections-problem-jeremiah-johnsonhttps://www.chapman.edu/esi/wp/porter_affectingpolicymanipulatingpredictionmarkets.pdfhttps://www.ft.com/content/82199ea0-9707-4d37-b4c4-b65a65d17ecbhttps://worksinprogress.co/issue/why-prediction-markets-arent-popular/https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/10/19/election-betting-trump-harris-odds-polymarket-predictit/https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/how-investors-are-betting-on-the-election-from-utility-stocks-to-djt-c2b9e838https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-10-03-2024/card/betting-markets-on-the-presidential-race-set-to-go-live-NnRne85QCyVAnc9nZy8zhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/are-you-ready-to-bet-on-u-s-elections-a-judges-ruling-opens-the-door-556abc73https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshihttps://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/09/13/kalshis-new-political-prediction-markets-halted-as-cftc-appeals-loss/https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-betting-platform-predictits-legal-struggle-could-hamper-regulators-and-hurt-regulated-firms/https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarkethttps://www.statista.com/outlook/amo/online-gambling/online-sports-betting/united-states 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The Heartland Institute's Donald Kendal, Jim Lakely, and Chris Talgo present episode 469 of the In The Tank Podcast. Over this past week, we witnessed an engineering breakthrough from Elon Musk's SpaceX. The successful launch and recapture of the SpaceX Starship booster marks a pivotal moment in the future of space travel, showcasing advancements in reusability and cost efficiency. SpaceX is paving the way for a new era where space access becomes more routine and affordable, pushing the boundaries of what is possible beyond Earth's orbit. But remember, Elon Musk is frowned upon by the political elite. Instead of commemorating this occasion and encouraging this innovation, government bureaucrats have instead chosen to stifle Musk by denying his request for additional rocket launches. Also, we are another week closer to the election and it appears Kamala Harris is getting increasingly desperate.Elon Musk's Starship BreakthoughSpace - SpaceX plans to catch Starship upper stage with 'chopsticks' in early 2025, Elon Musk sayshttps://www.space.com/spacex-starship-upper-stage-chopstick-catch-elon-muskEconomist - Starship will change what is possible beyond the Earthhttps://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/16/starship-will-change-what-is-possible-beyond-the-earthProgressives vs. ProgressNYT - California Rejects Bid for More Frequent SpaceX Launcheshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/spacex-launch-california.htmlLA Times - SpaceX sues California regulators, alleging anti-Musk bias in rocket rejectionhttps://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-10-16/spacex-political-bias-coastal-commission-lawsuitKamala's Bret Baier InterviewFox News - VP Harris to sit down hours from now with Bret Baier for first Fox News interviewhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/vp-harris-sit-down-hours-from-now-bret-baier-first-fox-news-interviewKamala Is Getting DesperateReuters - Harris could join Joe Rogan podcast in hunt for male votes, sources sayhttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-could-join-podcaster-joe-rogan-an-interview-sources-2024-10-15/Yahoo - Harris-Trump polls tighten, but PredictIt and Polymarket tell a different storyhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/harris-trump-polls-tighten-predictit-173916471.html

David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid. Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb.  Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield 1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle 9:34: Bransfield segment begins 11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation 20:33: Definition of a contest 21:47: Market manipulation 27:02: Cobb's concerns 27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming 29:34: Importance of public comments to CFTC 25:38: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid. Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Welcome to RBC's Markets in Motion podcast, recorded September 9th, 2024. I'm Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers. Three big things you need to know: First, Friday's jobs report added to investors' uncertainty regarding the labor market, but the data point that concerned us from last week was the spike in Tech layoffs in the Challenger report. Second, election uncertainty has persisted with policy getting greater attention from both sides. We run through our US equity market read throughs from Trump's economic speech last week. Third, in our discussion of other updates from our high frequency indicators, we review what we're watching in terms of potential near-term downside levels for the S&P 500, sentiment, and the Semis trade. If you'd like to hear more, here's another 6 minutes. Now, let's jump into the details. Starting with Takeaway #1: Employment Uncertainty Has Grown After Friday's Jobs Report, But The Spike In Tech Layoffs In The Challenger Report Spooked Us The Most Regarding StocksRBC's economics team noted that while the report “doesn't point to a sharp contraction in the labor market, it also gave no indications that the broader cooling trend – which is not welcomed by the Federal Reserve – has in any way run its course.” From our seat in US equity strategy, we generally agree with the idea that the jobs report is still consistent with cooling and normalization as opposed to an economy on the cusp of recession. That being said, we were a little spooked by some of the details in the Challenger layoff report that came out earlier in the week. The overall level of layoffs moved up in August, but remained well below the spikes associated with past recessions, and was even a bit below the moves higher seen in 2023-2024 and 2015. What caught our attention was the spike in layoffs for Technology companies which wasn't as bad as those seen in late 2022 and early 2023, but otherwise rivals some of the worst spikes this industry has seen over time. This primarily worries us in regards to the Tech sector itself and the broader market by way of the rotation trade. Though layoff announcements moved up slightly in a few other industries, those were generally mild relative to history. Moving on to Takeaway #2: Election Uncertainty Persists, With Policy Getting Greater AttentionWe continue to see the US election as a key challenge that the US equity market will need to work through in coming months, due to the uncertainty that the event has injected into the outlook. We do usually see a pullback in the S&P 500 in September and October of Presidential election years, with a rebound afterwards. Thinking about today specifically, a number of companies referred to this idea that the election has injected some uncertainty into the outlook in their recent earnings calls. Meanwhile, Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in the PredictIt betting market and RCP polling average, but the race still looks quite close on these data sets, as well as in the polling for the swing states. We do believe the stock market has been paying attention to the event given the alignment we've continued to see between S&P 500 performance and expectations that Trump will win in betting markets. One of the primary things the stock market cares about regarding the election is domestic policy, and investors have been getting new information on the policy leanings of both Harris and Trump over the past few weeks. In our latest report, we've recapped our early thoughts on the stock market read throughs of Trump's domestic policy agenda as described in his speech to the Economic Club of New York last week. We think it's premature to put on any significant sector or industry trades...

Jon explains negative risk, the safest way to make money on PredictIt. To hear the entire episode, join our Patreon. Thanks! Support us on Patreon at http://patreon.com/electionprofitmakers Send your election prediction questions to contact@electionprofitmakers.com Watch David's show DICKTOWN on Hulu http://bit.ly/dicktown

Who will win the election? What will the vote margin be? Will Donald Trump post on X before November? People can place bets on all these real-world questions — and more — on prediction markets. And these online platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket are increasingly being looked to as crystal balls in this chaotic election, promising real-time political insights and the chance to make a few bucks. Marketplace's Meghan McCarty Carino spoke to Chris Cohen, the deputy site editor of GQ, who recently wrote about his experience getting in on the action of what appears to be a prediction market “gold rush.”

Who will win the election? What will the vote margin be? Will Donald Trump post on X before November? People can place bets on all these real-world questions — and more — on prediction markets. And these online platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket are increasingly being looked to as crystal balls in this chaotic election, promising real-time political insights and the chance to make a few bucks. Marketplace's Meghan McCarty Carino spoke to Chris Cohen, the deputy site editor of GQ, who recently wrote about his experience getting in on the action of what appears to be a prediction market “gold rush.”

Who will win the election? What will the vote margin be? Will Donald Trump post on X before November? People can place bets on all these real-world questions — and more — on prediction markets. And these online platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket are increasingly being looked to as crystal balls in this chaotic election, promising real-time political insights and the chance to make a few bucks. Marketplace's Meghan McCarty Carino spoke to Chris Cohen, the deputy site editor of GQ, who recently wrote about his experience getting in on the action of what appears to be a prediction market “gold rush.”

Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal. Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC Timestamps 1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC 2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube 3:43: What to write to the CFTC 5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal 7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle 12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal 13:44: Political betting moving offshore 15:17: Delaying the rule 17:23: Need for a balancing test 22:36: Interview with Bransfield begins 28:31: Jia Cobb 34:32: Ignorance about prediction markets 38:36: Gambling references on Kalshi's website CFTC Proposal on Event Contracts: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8907-24 SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com

Jon talks about the kids today. David refuses to put more money into PredictIt. Support us on Patreon at http://patreon.com/electionprofitmakers Send your election prediction questions to contact@electionprofitmakers.com Watch David's show DICKTOWN on Hulu http://bit.ly/dicktown

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: List of Collective Intelligence Projects, published by Chipmonk on July 3, 2024 on LessWrong. During the last Foresight Intelligent Cooperation Workshop I got very curious about what collective intelligence tools currently exist. A list: Pol.is: "Input Crowd, Output Meaning" Inspired Twitter/X community notes People: Colin Megill, et al. Collective Intelligence Project vibe: democratic AI, "How AI and Democracy Can Fix Each Other" People: Divya Siddharth, Saffron Huang, et al. AI Objectives Institute Talk to the City: "an open-source LLM interface for improving collective deliberation and decision-making by analyzing detailed, qualitative data. It aggregates responses and arranges similar arguments into clusters." AI Objectives Institute works closely with the Taiwanese government. Other projects in development. People: Colleen McKenzie, Değer Turan, et al. Meaning Alignment Institute vibe: democratic AI, kinda. I think they think that if you can help individuals make wiser decisions, at scale, then this converges to be equivalent with solving outer alignment. Remesh Similar to pol.is AFAIK? I haven't played with it. People: Andrew Konya, et al. Loomio: "a flexible decision-making tool that helps you create a more engaged and collaborative culture, build trust and coordinate action" Deliberative Technology for Alignment paper They also discuss other tools for this use like Discord, Snapshot, Dembrane People: Andrew Konya, Deger Turan, Aviv Ovadya, Lina Qui, Daanish Masood, Flynn Devine, Lisa Schirch, Isabella Roberts, and Deliberative Alignment Forum Someone in the know told me to only read sections 4 and 5 of this paper Plurality Institute People: David Bloomin, Rose Bloomin, et al. Also working on some de-escalator bots for essentially Reddit comment wars Lots of crypto projects Quadratic voting Gitcoin Metagov: "a laboratory for digital governance" Soulbound tokens Various voting and aggregation systems, liquid democracy Decidem Decide Madrid Consider.it Stanford Online Deliberation Platform Lightcone Chord (in development) Brief description People: Jacob Lagerros (LessWrong) All of the prediction markets Manifold, Kalshi, Metaculus, PredictIt, etc. Midjourney has a Collective Intelligence Team now according to Ivan Vendrov's website. I couldn't find any other information online. What about small group collective intelligence tools? Most of the examples above are for large group collective intelligence (which I'm defining as ~300 people or much larger). But what about small groups? Are there tools that will help me coordinate with 30 friends? Or just one friend? I'm mostly unaware of any recent innovations for small group collective intelligence tools. Do you know of any? Nexae (in development) "Nexae Systems builds sociotechnical infrastructure to enable the creation of new types of businesses and organizations." double crux bot I'm surprised I haven't heard of many other LLM-facilitated communication tools Medium group (~30-300 people) projects: Jason Benn's unconference tools, eg Idea Ranker. Other lists @exgenesis short tweet thread. Couple things I haven't listed here. Plurality Institute's (WIP) map of related orgs, etc. Know of any I should add? Opportunities RFP: Interoperable Deliberative Tools | interop, $200k. Oops this closed before I published this post. Metagov is running https://metagov.org/projects/ai-palace which seems similar Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org

David learns about the presidential debate. Jon describes Medieval Manhattan. Support us on Patreon at http://patreon.com/electionprofitmakers Send your election prediction questions to contact@electionprofitmakers.com Watch David's show DICKTOWN on Hulu http://bit.ly/dicktown

Today's PCE report could provide some good news for the Fed. Former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson previews the data. Plus, shares of Nike are plunging after the company slashed current quarter and full year sales guidance. Oppenheimer's Brian Nagel explains. And, PredictIt polling shows a 53% probability of Donald Trump re-taking the White House in November following last night's first presidential debate. Fordham Global's Tina Fordham discusses.

Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets. Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections 2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds 3:17: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation 5:55: Segment on UK elections begins 6:12: Anthony's background 8:17: Keir Starmer's background 10:16: Starmer's odds of becoming Prime Minister 11:01: How many seats Conservatives and Labour will win 22:04: Why Sunak and the Conservatives are unlikely to make a comeback 28:37: Why Sunak called an early election 30:54: Labour seat totals 34:03: Right-wing bias in the markets? 36:59: Discussion of class politics 39:27: Segment with Chan begins 39:46: VP odds on Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy 40:48: "Juice" in sportsbooks 41:46: Regulation segment begins 42:56: Incentives in the current CFTC rulemaking 45:00: Need for a counter-lobby on event contracts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at Polymarket.com

Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it.  Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection 1:44: Manifest 2024 7:18: Episode on VP nomination begins 7:43: What are SSG Title Belt Championships? 9:37: How Ben Freeman won the SSG Title Belt 11:56: Ben's proposed side bet on Trump's VP selection 13:36: Alex Chan's background 15:38: OpenBet/DonBest 19:26: How Alex got into political gambling 20:49: Political nerds vs. professional gamblers 22:36: Ben and Alex negotiate theie side bet 27:09: How Trump will select his VP 30:10: Loyalty considerations 32:21: Trump's strength in GOP 34:48: Will Trump penalize those who ran against him? 35:32: When will Trump announce the pick? 36:38: How deep is Trump's VP bench? 40:09: Has Trump already decided? Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.

Jon reaches out to PredictIt. David wakes up defeated. Support us on Patreon at http://patreon.com/electionprofitmakers Send your election prediction questions to contact@electionprofitmakers.com Watch David's show DICKTOWN on Hulu http://bit.ly/dicktown

Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos 6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process 8:33: Best Market 9:27: Room temperature superconductor 10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market 11:23: Best Trade 11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market 12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1 12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei 13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song 13:12: Domer debt limit profits 13:17: Worst Trade 14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count 14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president 15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement 15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy 17:21: Best Shitposter 19:06: Domer's shitposting 19:56: RelayThief's shitposting 20:44: Rookie of the Year 21:12: Naman Mehndiratta 22:39: Manifold Markets 23:20: Betting platforms 23:48: TheWinner 25:29: Trader of the Year 25:46: ANoland 26:07: Gaeten Dugas 27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger) 28:33: Doug Campbell 29:05: Worst Pump 31:04: Kalshi election contracts 31:15: Hamas control of Gaza 32:00: Trump third indictment  32:44: Semiconductor yes holders 33:40: RFK Democratic nominee 33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year 34:22: Best News Source 34:41: Politico Punchbowl 35:00: PredictIt comments 35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI 35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips 37:29: CSP Discord 38:36: Service to Political Gambling 38:36: PredictIt 39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck 39:56: Government Shutdown 40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump" 41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles 42:19: submarine debris 43:04: Trump indictment on March 31 43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages 44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute 44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack 45:59: Postscript 46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination 47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market at polymarket.com  Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

A PredictIt market finally reacts to a piece of news. Support us on Patreon at http://patreon.com/electionprofitmakers Send your election prediction questions to contact@electionprofitmakers.com Watch David's show DICKTOWN on Hulu http://bit.ly/dicktown

In July of 2023, the Fifth Circuit reversed the district court's decision in Clarke v. CFTC, and remanded with instructions to enter a preliminary injunction against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The case is one concerning the CFTC's revocation of its "no-action letter" concerning PredictIt Market. PredictIt Market is an online marketplace for people to trade contracts predicting important political events, started as a research tool by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. Before going into operation, PredictIt sought a "no-action letter" from the CFTC to operate in the US without registering under the Commodity Exchange Act as a designated contract market, which the CFTC issued in 2014.However, in August 2022, the CFTC withdrew the letter and issued notice to PredictIt to cease operations within 6 months, which led to suit being filed by supporters of PredictIt. Questions included whether the revocation was arbitrary and capricious, whether the letter constituted "final action" on the part of the agency, and whether the plaintiffs had standing to sue.Join us as a panel of experts discuss this interesting case.Featuring:Michael Edney, Partner, Hunton Andrews Kurth LLPHon. David Mason, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer, Aristotle InternationalConnor Raso, Deputy General Counsel, Public Company Accounting Oversight Board(Moderator) Russ Ryan, Senior Litigation Counsel, New Civil Liberties Alliance

Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee 3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment 4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo 8:28: Darling interview begins 10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP 11:49: Noem's history with Trump 15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski 16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate 17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection 18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty 21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination? 22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP 22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares 24:29: Why Haley is trading so high 31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds 33:57: Bransfield segment begins 39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor 4:17: Interview begins 5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease 6:32: Trump's physique 10:12: Trump's psychology 11:05: Note from Trump's doctor 13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition? 15:06: Trump's genetics 17:46: Is weight protective in old age? 21:00: Trump's cognitive decline 25:29: Trump's OCD 27:00: Trump's purpose in life 29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health 35:00: How to trade on Trump's health 39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's health Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Donate to Star Spangled Gamblers via PayPal https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=9Q6KS5JPLNRRY

Three-Part Episode In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback. In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream. In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes. Timestamps 4:30: Interview with Ben Freeman and The Winner begins 7:49: DeSantis's mannerisms 12:36: Is DeSantis deferring too much to advisors  15:03: Missed opportunities in the DeSantis-Newsom debate 18:42: Market prices on DeSantis and Nikki Haley 25:13: Trump's legal problems 27:23: Can Haley get through the Republican primaries? 30:16: Interview with Friess begins 34:46: Pratik's view on legalizing political betting at the state level 37:19: Interview with Bransfield begins 43:12: Incentives created by Kalshi's investors SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Could a terrorist attack be predicted by a futures or betting market? Michael revisits an outside the box idea from two decades ago, which is now top-of-mind with what is happening in Israel and Gaza.

Three-part episode: (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition? (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions (3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political betting Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 5:01: Interview with Lucas begins 5:21: How political betting led to Lucas being swatted 8:07: How Lucas got into political betting 9:36: Improvements in political betting websites 10:13: Lucas's medical background 13:20: Polymarket's market on whether Mitch McConnell will resign by the end of the year 13:36: McConnell's freezing episodes 19:58: What is a seizure? 23:29: Did McConnell have a stroke? 24:02: Did the Congressional physician mislead the public about McConnell's condition? 26:41: The state of McConnell's health 29:59: Medications McConnell might be on right now 31:18: How the longshot could win on Polymarket 34:41: Segment with Rule3O3 begins 37:11: Segment with Jonathan Zubkoff begins Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt. 3:20: Main segment begins 4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse 6:51: Emerson polling 8:20: Current market prices 12:31: The role of national politics 14:16: Racial politics 17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge 23:36: Polling in Kentucky 24:30: Fundraising 25:25: Indicators pointing to a Beshear win 28:30: Limited national attention 31:10: Kentucky governors races as national bellweathers 35:36: Pratik summarizes the discussion 37:15: TheWinner's final margin prediction 37:58: Potential impact of the war in Israel Trade on Polymarket here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gubernatorial-election Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers

Ever thought of cashing in on your knack for predictions? Today we explore the world of prediction markets like Augur, Kalshi, and PredictIt.  Side Hustle School features a new episode EVERY DAY, featuring detailed case studies of people who earn extra money without quitting their job. This year, the show includes free guided lessons and listener Q&A several days each week. Show notes: SideHustleSchool.com Email: team@sidehustleschool.com Be on the show: SideHustleSchool.com/questions Connect on Twitter: @chrisguillebeau Connect on Instagram: @193countries Visit Chris's main site: ChrisGuillebeau.com If you're enjoying the show, please pass it along! It's free and has been published every single day since January 1, 2017. We're also very grateful for your five-star ratings—it shows that people are listening and looking forward to new episodes.

After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts. Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision. 0:00: Introduction begins 2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation 3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency 5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community 7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 13:03: Interview with Mick begins 15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period 16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments 17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated? 18:10: Public Citizen 20:57: Better Markets 21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin 22:55: Center for American Progress 25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football? 31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters 33:41: Kalshi's response 46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach Links: Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/ Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/ Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/

After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit 3:25: Interview begins 4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy 7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him 8:12: How cancel culture is changing 10:13: Manifest Conference 11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture 14:27: GOP nominee odds 15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets 17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC 20:31: Conservative legal movement 32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan 33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems 34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness 36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry 40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke

On today's show, cowards killing people, Netflix is done sending DVDs, Hurricane Idalia, Only Fans' top earners, kids getting slapped in schools, protestors fuck around and find out & hot boy summer continues for the Taliban… (00:03:15) Get yourself some merch: https://store.hardfactor.com/  (00:04:06) Boxed Water is BETTER! ☕ Cup of Coffee in the Big Time ☕ (00:06:13) NHL Puck Talk (00:09:25) UNC faculty member killed in shooting on campus, suspect in custody (00:10:34) Controversial Canadian teacher with Z-cup prosthetic breasts returns to the classroom at new school (00:16:30) Netflix ending its DVD mail service after 25 years, plan to let subscribers keep DVD's (00:22:59) Florida braces for Hurricane Idalia (00:23:57) 'You're not welcome here!' DeSantis booed at vigil for Jacksonville shooting victims (00:26:52) Trump's federal election subversion trial to begin one day before Super Tuesday primary

On Episode 1282 they boys break down all the latest funny crime stories including a gasoline drinker in Seattle, literal porch pirate in Georgia, land pirate in Virginia, the “terrorist challenge” and MUCH more… Timestamps: (00:00:00) Happy Birthday Pat!

On today's show....Wagner boss is dead, more bad teachers, robots taking jobs, Fyre Fest II, crowd surfing babies, bear spraying kids slides & rat's feet in Olive Garden soup & more! (00:03:11) Rep. Nancy Mace Interview: Joins us tomorrow at 7 PM EST: youtube.com/hardfactornews ☕ Cup of Coffee in the Big Time ☕ (00:05:17) Fun fact: 90% survive all plane accidents (00:06:21) Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin ‘on board' jet that crashed in Russia, Russian authorities list no survivors (00:10:24) Happy Birthday Kobe Bryant  (00:12:39) NYC teacher who once posted about ‘helping kids understand consent' charged with raping 14-year-old student (00:16:23) 3 dead after drinking milkshakes tied to a listeria outbreak in Washington state (00:21:15) India becomes 4th country to land on the moon, first on the south pole, with Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft landing (00:22:55) Trump's legal team's mugshots just dropped (00:26:44) 'He held the baby up like Simba': Baby crowd-surfs at Flo Rida concert in wild video

Jon reacts to the big PredictIt news and analyzes x.com's URL. David defends his Titanic decision. Watch David's show DICKTOWN on Hulu http://bit.ly/dicktown Support us on Patreon at http://patreon.com/electionprofitmakers Send your election prediction questions to contact@electionprofitmakers.com

Jon ponders the depths below. David welcomes a new candidate to PredictIt. Watch David's show DICKTOWN on Hulu http://bit.ly/dicktown Support us on Patreon at http://patreon.com/electionprofitmakers Send your election prediction questions to contact@electionprofitmakers.com

On today's episode….. Happy Hanukkah, from everyone except the NY Times! (00:09:08), Cop pranks homeless people with shit sandwiches, hot cat ladies in action, Elon loses a twitter poll, House of Representatives member George Santos caught lying about past (00:32:04), deep dive in to being “Transabled”, Pup Ravage is rearing pups in the military (01:00:41) & Space Force promotes a sex toy guy Watch Full Podcasts on Spotify and YouTube + Get Bonus Podcasts via Anchor and Patreon NEW “CREAM OF THE CROP” & “CUP OF COFFEE IN THE BIG TIME” MERCH IS OUT AT STORE.HARDFACTOR.COM (00:03:52) - The boys discuss the effect of uniforms and sexual tension, plus discuss an experiment with scrubs and Whole Foods ☕ Cup of Coffee in the Big Time ☕ (00:06:32) - Hanukkah Fun Fact & Jewish Gambling (00:09:08) - NY Times crossword looks like Swastika (00:12:56) - Cop pranks homeless man with shit sandwich (00:17:30) - Only fans cat lover using funds to start cat rescue (00:19:04) - Old ladies refuse to stop feeding cats (hilarious bodycam footage) (00:29:32) - Elon Musk loses twitter Poll for CEO job

Women are grinding a Parisian statue for good luck (00:04:30); a Hippo is nearly stoned to death after swallowing and spitting out a 2 year-old in Uganda (00:06:46), and MUCH more... Watch Full Podcasts on Spotify and YouTube + Get Bonus Podcasts via Anchor and Patreon NEW “CREAM OF THE CROP” & “CUP OF COFFEE IN THE BIG TIME” MERCH IS OUT AT STORE.HARDFACTOR.COM ☕ Cup of Coffee in the Big Time ☕ (00:04:30) - National Emo Day and the Luckiest Statue in the World (00:06:46) - A two year old boy was swallowed by a hippopotamus in Uganda (00:08:39) - 1 million liter aquarium in German hotel bursts (00:12:57) - Luxury Cruise brawl breaks out after woman goes overboard (00:17:56) - Avatar 2's Big Weekend