This week on The Game Marks Podcast, we are remastering Fire Pro Wrestling Returns. Will it get a rating of Play it Forever, or a Future Endeavor. We also discuss a possible Hall of Fame? And we will be giving away a Major Bendies Hacksaw Jim Duggan!!Please subscribe and leave a 5-star review for this podcast on Apple Podcast and Spotify and follow us on all forms of social media @gamemarkspod.Join George Feis & Johnny Clash each week as they do a #DeepDive into the good, the bad & the awesome of wrestling video games. Do your favorite games stand the test of time or are you playing them with nostalgia goggles? New episodes every Monday! Follow along @GameMarksPod.Join our Patreon for Ad Free Episodes, Softlock questions, Q&A and Discord access patreon.com/gamemarkspodSponsorsDubby Energy: dubby.gg Use code gamemarkspod for 10% offNord VPN: gamemarkspod.com/vpnMerch: gamemarkspodcast.bigcartel.comPro Wrestling Tees: prowrestlingtees.com/gamemarkspodTee Public: teepublic.com/user/gamemarkspod
John Hankey Returns - Breakthrough - The documentaryOctober 27With three decades of research and examination of facts, John Hankey has finally reached his conclusions concerning the Kennedy Assassination.With the 60th anniversary heading towards us, much of the evidence we have to examine are filmed interviews, documents which may or may not be genuine and some shaky pictures taken at the event and subsequently. Even the Assassination Commission in the 1970s were not in full possession of the events and the people surrounding themThis complex web of lies and half truths has taken up the lives of so many researchers, yet remains a subject of conjecture and intrigue.Celebrated historian John Hankey completes his investigation into the JFK murder with undeniable evidence on the what really happened and who was behind the assassination of a President.Youtube YoutubeMovieThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/1198501/advertisement
Need flexible funding for your deals? Private money could be the answer. Whether you're looking to dodge the bank or want greater control over the terms of your deal, that's exactly what this creative finance option can provide. Our hosts can vouch for it! Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! Today, we're taking a deep dive into private money—the creative finance solution that allows you to fund more deals without huge down payments or stellar credit. Tony and Ashley share how they discovered private money and why it's their go-to financing option today. If you're looking to borrow funds, our hosts will show you how to find private money lenders, how to structure your private loans to benefit both parties, and why this financing solution is the PERFECT stepping stone for a future investing partnership. In this episode, you'll also learn about the three essential documents for all private money loans, as well as how to approach your lender about structuring a deal. But that's not all—this masterclass is for the private money lenders, too! Tony and Ashley discuss ways to protect yourself in a deal and how to ensure that you get your money back. Finally, you'll learn when not to lend private money! In This Episode We Cover: How to get 100% financing for your deals using private money The differences between traditional bank financing, hard money, and private money How to find a private money lender for your next real estate deal The three documents you NEED for any private money partnership The best ways to protect yourself when lending money Crucial tax advice for those using private money for their deals And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender Ashley's BiggerPockets Profile Ashley's Instagram Tony's BiggerPockets Profile Tony's Instagram Real Estate Rookie Facebook Group Join BiggerPockets for FREE Ask Us Your Investing Question Apply to Be a Guest on the “Real Estate Rookie” Podcast Private Capital Explained: The 4-Second Pitch to Unlock Unlimited Funds (Part 1) w/ Amy Mahjoory Private Money Explained: 5 Simple Ways to Find Private Money (Part 2) w/ Amy Mahjoory Private Money Explained Part 3: The “Credibility Pieces” Lenders Love to See w/ Amy Mahjoory & Josiah Hein Private Money Explained Part 4: Rates, Returns, and Protecting Investors w/ Amy Mahjoory How to Buy a Rental Property with NO Money OR Credit w/ Pace Morby Making $71K on ONE DEAL After 5 Failed House Flips and Six-Figure Debt w/ JP Desmet Generate Your Own Loan Amortization Schedule: Bankrate EZ Financial Calculators App Books Mentioned in the Show Real Estate Partnerships by Ashley Kehr & Tony Robinson Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/rookie-341 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode: The final member of Cody Rhodes' team for War Games confirmed for Survivor Series, Juice Robinson reportedly out of action in AEW for the immediate future due to a back injury, Shinsuke Nakamura still waiting for his new WWE target and says he is “ready to fight”, Backstage news regarding Axiom's status with WWE following appearance on Smackdown, and Betting odds favorites to win at this Saturday's WWE Survivor Series PLE revealedSupport Eastern Kentucky: https://secure.kentucky.gov/FormServices/Finance/EKYFloodRelief
The guys are in Full Gear for this week's episode!! Returns, Surprises, and Predictions and that is the way Sir Michael Jenks and Mark "The Mark" live their lives. The Can Crushers discuss this week's action from AEW and WWE, before making some devilish predictions for AEW's Full Gear PPV!!WWE Shop Purchase merchandise from WWE Shop by clicking this link and you will support our show!Collar X Elbow - The Wrestling Brand Use promo code CanCrushers to save 10% off your order!Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the showLooking for a podcast player that offers seamless sync across iOS/Android/Web/Desktop? Join Podurama today with 50% off lifetime premium (for a limited time).https://podurama.com/podcast/can-crushers-wrestling-podcast-i1395497527 Order your Can Crushers Merch: https://can-crushers-wrestling-podcast.creator-spring.com/Remember, just because your trash it doesn't mean you can't do great things! It's called a garbage CAN not a garbage CAN NOT!
Watch ‘Low Juice For The Winter' on Rumble and YouTube. Low Juice for the Winter is not referring to beverages that one would enjoy during the holiday season. This discussion is a sleeper travesty more complex than terrorist crossing the … Continue reading → The post Episode 421: Low Juice For The Winter appeared first on Sam Adams the 'Puritan Patriot' Returns.
Analyzing the recent buzz surrounding Mamaearth's IPO, Mint's Akshat explores the strategies, risks, and returns associated with mutual fund participation in new-age company offerings. From understanding the IPO game to deciphering investment rationale, this episode navigates the dynamic landscape of startup IPOs and their impact on mutual fund portfolios.
(11/17/23) Richard Rosso's adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality, and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart's results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American's still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back...for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant. SEG-1: Driving in Houston & Market Seasonality SEG-2: Butterball Turkey Talk Line & Spending Results for 2023 SEG-3: Withdrawal rates & Recency Bias: Ramsey is Wrong SEG-4: Sequence of Returns Risks & Guaranteed Income Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR6uRWwmEY8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=14s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdv5qsINM00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Year of The Magnificent Seven" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blvFign-AWA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/employment-is-sending-signals-recession-or-normalization/ "Speculator Or Investor? What's The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RetirementSpending #4%Rule #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #ButterballTurkey #Thanksgiving #Markets #Money #Investing
Episode 285 - Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week's season-ending DP World Tour Championship and the RSM Classic. If you do not have a bet365 account, new customers, 18+ can access a Bet £10, get £30 in free bets offer. Use our bonus code SPORT30 when registering. Offers Terms: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad Claim Offer Here Listeners should visit Golf Betting System for the best golf betting tips coverage. Read our new best golf betting sites guide. Intro: 00:30; Listener Reviews: 01:33; Full Each Way Return: 03:05; DP World Tour Championship Tips Chat: 08:33; bet365 DPWTC Boosts + New Customer Promo: 39:22; RSM Classic Tips Chat: 34:26. Paul's DPWT Championship Betting Preview: dp world tour championship betting tips dp world tour championship strokes gained rankings dp world tour championship form stats Steve's RSM Classic Betting Preview: rsm classic betting tips rsm classic strokes gained rankings rsm classic form stats Predictor Models/Optimizers pga tour optimizer We have a new set of Golf Betting System bookmaker guides, highlighting current 2023 sports accounts. boylesports sign up offer betfred promo code betvictor bonus code ladbrokes sign up offer coral bonus code unibet sign up offer bet365 opening offer bet365 promo code uk 10bet new customer offer All offers are for new customers, 18+ Check out our new open championship free bets page Steve Bamford provides pga betting tips across the whole of 2023 Let us talk you through the bet365 each way extra explained X: Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf; Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf; Paul Williams @GolfBetting This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.
Interest rates across the board are at or near their highest levels in the last 15 years. While it's more expensive to get a mortgage nowadays, investors are benefiting from these higher rates with their investable assets.Short-term Treasuries are generating more than 5%, which is significantly higher than the rates we have seen for the last decade. It's important to remember that over the long run, Equity markets have returned more than 9% annually.Equities are riskier than bonds but have historically also had higher returns during periods of high-interest rates and have more protection against inflation.A thoughtful approach and implementation strategy are needed to ensure that funds are allocated toward the right assets to protect your goals and priorities while also optimizing your returns in the market.Have questions for an upcoming episode? Want to get free resources, book giveaways, and AWM gear? Want to hear about when we release new episodes? Text “insights” or the lightbulb emoji (
バットダディモービル放送局は、アメコミのDC作品、特にバットマンを中心に、自称バットマンアンバサダーのバットダディが好き勝手に話すラジオ番組です。 I love BATMAN !!! アイコンのフォントはゆうたONEさんより使わさせていただきました！ 私のバットマン闘病記Returns! - Yuri 2300 | 同人誌通販のアリスブックス (alice-books.com) https://sp.alice-books.com/item/show/6745-18 【アメコミ紹介系】フェザーコミックスへんしゅーぶ (39) 【アメコミ紹介系】フェザーコミックスへんしゅーぶ - YouTube Kamen America Omnibus (Japanese Translation): Volume 1 https://amzn.to/3QDfsBH
Tom B Returns with an update on the Dean Corll CaseSeptember 1Tom B was looking into serial killers when he came across the little known case of Texas lineman Dean Corll - known as the Candyman.In this update he discusses the further discoveries made since his last appearance in May. In the previous episode he uncovered a massive ring of paedophiles, and a conspiracy which seemed to indicate these people were working together.It's a horrifying tale of the seedy underbelly of suburbia, namely Houston Heights in Texas, where troubled kids or those who would not be missed were regularly the target of Corll and his co-conspirators.Tom tells Ed Opperman about the developments and the seeming reluctance and obstruction and seemign indifference by the authorities to actually do anything.At the time of his arrest, Corll was responsible for at least 28 murders, but it is generally agreed his real total was much, much higher.Recorded August 2023This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/1198501/advertisement
Watch ‘Ohio Leads US Into The Pit' on Rumble and YouTube. This weeks elections, sets the tone as Ohio Leads US Into The Pit. The devil is not just in the details but also in the financing of destruction to … Continue reading → The post Episode 420: Ohio Leads US Into The Pit appeared first on Sam Adams the 'Puritan Patriot' Returns.
Episode 284 - Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week's Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour and the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. If you do not have a bet365 account, new customers, 18+ can access a Bet £10, get £30 in free bets offer. Use our bonus code SPORT30 when registering. Offers Terms: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad Claim Offer Here Listeners should visit Golf Betting System for the best golf betting tips coverage. Read our new best golf betting sites guide. Intro: 00:30; Listener Reviews: 01:43; Winner Winner: 03:53; bet365 Nedbank Golf Challenge Boosts + New Customer Promo: 10:01; Nedbank Challenge Tips Chat: 11:54; Bermuda Championship Tips Chat: 34:26. Paul's Nedbank Golf Challenge Betting Preview: nedbank golf challenge tips nedbank golf challenge form stats Steve's Bermuda Championship Betting Preview: bermuda championship betting tips Steve Presenting the Bermuda Championship Golf Betting Show: bermuda championship tips bermuda championship form stats Predictor Models/Optimizers pga tour optimizer We have a new set of Golf Betting System bookmaker guides, highlighting current 2023 sports accounts. boylesports sign up offer uk betfred promo code 2024 betvictor bonus code ladbrokes sign up offer coral bonus code unibet promo code bet365 open account offer bet365 bonus code 2024 10bet new customer offer All offers are for new customers, 18+ Check out our new open championship free bets page Steve Bamford provides pga betting tips across the whole of 2023 Let us talk you through the bet365 each way extra explained X: Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf; Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf; Paul Williams @GolfBetting This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.
Harry Drajpuch and Joe Lynch discuss leading a logistics biz turnaround. Harry is the Chief Executive Officer of Amware Fulfillment, a Staci Company. Throughout his long, successful career, Harry has led multiple logistics business turnarounds. About Harry Drajpuch Harry Drajpuch is the Chief Executive Officer of Amware Fulfillment, a Staci Company. Harry Drajpuch is a 30+ year logistics industry executive with a breadth of executive management experience. Prior to being appointed CEO at Amware Fulfillment in December 2017, he was COO of the firm, responsible for technology and the performance of 8 nationwide fulfillment centers. Prior to Amware, Drajpuch was President and CEO at Weber Logistics, where he had full P&L responsibility for 15 distribution centers and a large regional truckload fleet. Drajpuch also served as COO at third-party logistics provider, Kane Is Able, and has held senior operations roles at Kuehne & Nagel and Con-Way. About Amware Fulfillment Amware Fulfillment provides order fulfillment services to help growing omni-channel brands scale without limits. Our focus is on direct-to-consumer order fulfillment, processing millions and millions of B2C orders per year from 18 fulfillment centers across the U.S. Brands leverage Amware's fulfillment expertise and nationwide distribution network to achieve world-class fulfillment, with none of the capital requirements. Amware works with businesses that ship at least 50,000+ orders a year and need to prepare for hyper-growth. As part of the worldwide Staci Group, Amware can offer global fulfillment from 81 fulfillment centers across the U.S., Europe and Asia. Key Takeaways: Leading a Logistics Biz Turnaround Amware Fulfillment, a Staci company is a third-party logistics (3PL) provider. It provides a wide range of services to help businesses of all sizes with their fulfillment needs. These services include: Warehousing: Amware Fulfillment has a network of warehouses across the United States, where it can store clients' products. This allows clients to reach their customers quickly and efficiently, no matter where they are located. Order fulfillment: Amware Fulfillment picks, packs, and ships client orders. It also provides a variety of shipping options, so clients can choose the one that best meets their needs. Returns processing: Amware Fulfillment processes client returns quickly and efficiently, so clients can get their products back on the market as soon as possible. Inventory management: Amware Fulfillment helps clients track their inventory levels and make sure they have the right products in stock at the right time. Customer service: Amware Fulfillment provides excellent customer service to both its clients and their customers. It is always available to answer questions and resolve any issues that may arise. Technology: Amware Fulfillment uses state-of-the-art technology to help clients with their fulfillment needs. This includes its proprietary warehouse management system (WMS), which helps clients track their inventory levels and orders. Scalability: Amware Fulfillment can scale its services to meet the needs of businesses of all sizes. Whether clients are a small business with just a few orders per day or a large enterprise with thousands of orders per day, Amware Fulfillment can help. Reliability: Amware Fulfillment is a reliable partner for businesses of all sizes. It has a proven track record of success in helping businesses with their fulfillment needs. Affordability: Amware Fulfillment offers affordable services that can help businesses save money on their fulfillment costs. Flexibility: Amware Fulfillment is flexible and can work with businesses to create custom solutions that meet their specific needs. Amware Fulfillment is committed to sustainability and environmental responsibility. It uses a variety of green initiatives in its warehouses, such as energy-efficient lighting and recycled materials. Learn More About Leading a Logistics Biz Turnaround Harry Drajpuch | LinkedIn Amware Fulfillment | LinkedIn Amware Fulfillment website Amware Video Overview eBook: The 7 Deadly Sins of B2C Fulfillment Episode Sponsor: Wreaths Across America Wreaths Across America Radio - Wreaths Across America Episode Sponsor: Greenscreens.ai Greenscreens.ai's dynamic pricing infrastructure built to grow and protect margins. The Greenscreens.ai solution combines aggregated market data and customer data with advanced machine learning techniques to deliver short-term predictive freight market pricing specific to a company's individual buy and sell behavior. The Logistics of Logistics Podcast If you enjoy the podcast, please leave a positive review, subscribe, and share it with your friends and colleagues. The Logistics of Logistics Podcast: Google, Apple, Castbox, Spotify, Stitcher, PlayerFM, Tunein, Podbean, Owltail, Libsyn, Overcast Check out The Logistics of Logistics on Youtube
Stocks and their returns are built on the uncertainty of financial markets. No one knows what tomorrow holds. Bearing that risk is compensated when things go well, and punished when they don't. Many try to play the guessing game in hopes of only getting positive results.The data has shown that this is not possible. Trying to outsmart the market consistently doesn't work due to the unpredictability of the world. It's been proven that trying to avoid periods of negative performance harms investors as they miss out on some of the most lucrative returns during heightened uncertainty.Investing in markets is not easy. There will be bumps on the way, but the rewards far outweigh the risks when structured appropriately. Have questions for an upcoming episode? Want to get free resources, book giveaways, and AWM gear? Want to hear about when we release new episodes? Text “insights” or the lightbulb emoji (
Watch ‘Destroying Modern Democracy In America' on Rumble and YouTube. We must become fully energize in destroying modern democracy in America. That is ‘democracy' as it is used by those who manipulate the idea of the original intent in meaning. … Continue reading → The post Epicsode 419: Destoying Modern Democracy in America appeared first on Sam Adams the 'Puritan Patriot' Returns.
In this episode, we discuss the AI gold rush and its impact on businesses. According to a study by IDC, companies are reaping 3.5 times returns on their AI investments, with a return on investment within 14 months on average. The report also highlights how generative AI is driving increased interest and investment in the technology. Additionally, the Oxford Internet Institute conducted a study that found AI skills and knowledge can increase a worker's salary by up to 40%. The study examined over 1,000 skills in 25,000 workers, showing the positive impact of AI-related knowledge on potential salaries.Three things to know today00:00 The AI Gold Rush Pays: Companies Reap 3.5x Returns & Salaries Surge by 40%04:50 Federal AI Blueprint Draws Industry Eyeballs as OMB Solicits Public Wisdom07:58 Watermarking, the AI Apocalypse, & Adult Content Leveraging AIAdvertiser: https://movebot.io/Looking for a link from the stories? The entire script of the show, with links to articles, are posted in each story on https://www.businessof.tech/Do you want the show on your podcast app or the written versions of the stories? Subscribe to the Business of Tech: https://www.businessof.tech/subscribe/Support the show on Patreon: https://patreon.com/mspradio/Want our stuff? Cool Merch? Wear “Why Do We Care?” - Visit https://mspradio.myspreadshop.comFollow us on:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/28908079/YouTube: https://youtube.com/mspradio/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mspradionews/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mspradio/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@businessoftech
The Sandman left ECW for WCW and now makes his triumphant return to the land of extreme! One of the most iconic moments in the entire company, The Sandman surprises everyone and shows up during the Impact Players vs Tommy Dreamer and Raven Tag Team Title Main Event. Also, Sign Guy Dudley is upset that the Dudleys left him behind and he is now known as Lou E. Dangerously, the greatest manager in all of pro wrestling. The first thing he does is bring back former ECW Champion, Mikey Whipwreck! Mikey gets the crap beat out of him by current ECW Champion Mike Awesome! Plus, the evil Tajiri battles Jerry Lynn! And the DEADLOCK Q&A Returns!⦁ Deadlock Discord: https://discord.gg/E4BvR4W⦁ Deadlock Shop: https://shop.deadlockpw.com⦁ Deadlock Patreon: https://patreon.com/deadlockpw⦁ Deadlock Twitter: https://twitter.com/deadlockpw⦁ Deadlock Instagram: https://instagram.com/deadlockwrestling⦁ Deadlock Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/deadlockpw⦁ Deadlock Pro Wrestling: http://deadlockpro.comThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5810608/advertisement
Episode 283 - Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week's World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico. If you do not have a bet365 account, new customers, 18+ can access a Bet £10, get £30 in free bets offer. Use our bonus code SPORT30 when registering. Offers Terms: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad Claim Offer Here Listeners should visit Golf Betting System for the best golf betting tips coverage. Read our new best golf betting sites guide. Intro: 00:30; Listener Reviews: 01:45; Last Week: 02:34; bet365 WWT Championship Boosts + New Customer Promo: 16:56; WWT Championship Tips Chat: 19:42. Steve's WWT Championship Betting Preview: world wide technology betting tips Steve Presenting the WWT Championship Golf Betting Show: world wide technology championship tips world wide technology championship form stats Predictor Models/Optimizers pga tour optimizer We have a new set of Golf Betting System bookmaker guides, highlighting current 2023 sports accounts. boylesports sign up offer betfred promo code 2024 betvictor bonus code ladbrokes sign up offer coral bonus code unibet sign up offer bet365 opening offer bet365 bonus code 2024 10bet new customer offer All offers are for new customers, 18+ Check out our new open championship free bets page Steve Bamford provides pga betting tips across the whole of 2023 Let us talk you through the bet365 each way extra explained X: Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf; Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf; Paul Williams @GolfBetting This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.
EP312 - Amazon Q3 2023 Earnings Amazon reported another strong quarter across the board for Q3, soundly exceeding analyst profit expectations and retail industry averages. In this episode we break down the AWS AI, Ads, and retail performance. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 312 being recorded on Monday October 30th right before Halloween I'm Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:38] Hey Jason and welcome back to Jason and Scot show listeners Jason it's a Halloween Eve hallow Eve but also we just watch the Mac live presentation from Apple or live presented recorded earlier presentation from Apple about new Macs, so I don't know I think I'm going to ask you about Max first are you going to get a new Mac are you sitting out this upgrade cycle. Jason: [1:07] I am on the fence guy of course I want one I have scheduled a meeting with my family CFO to see if I can, I can justify it so so we'll see I did not order one tonight I'm actually. Still super happy with my M1 MacBook Pro so so I know M3 is at least three times better so so of course I want one but we'll see when I pull the trigger what about you is yours already on the way. Scot: [1:38] I have been a while without an upgrade and running a little long on the tooth on this guy so yes I have a new machine coming they were actually pretty generous on the trade-ins you should just do an experiment before you talk to the CFO plug-in that trade in and see if it. Jason: [1:56] That could be the. Scot: [1:58] You a better presentation also if you have an Apple credit card which I'm sure you do they have a really compelling offer there. Jason: [2:07] All right lots of lots of good good things to consider my nine-year-old has made it clear that we're not allowed to trade anything in it. Scot: [2:17] It's got dibs on. Jason: [2:20] He's very he's very aware of the technology trickle down. Scot: [2:24] Oh man well you can somewhere down the stream there's going to be one that you could trade in but I don't think it may have as much impact as your courage. Jason: [2:32] I I don't know if he's ever going to own a computer device with a keyboard will see but yeah he's actually not that interested in my laptop. Scot: [2:40] Speaking of baby geek or I guess now he's I don't know kindergarten geek. Jason: [2:46] Third grade geek. Scot: [2:47] Third grade geek what's he thinking about Halloween I hear he's kind of outgrown Star Wars which makes me casa. Jason: [2:56] He still like Star Wars but he yeah he is not doing a Star Wars character last year he did a Pokemon character he did Pikachu and this year he's stepped up to Charizard so that. Scot: [3:09] Very rare. Jason: [3:11] Enables well I think it depends on which Charizard butt. That steps up the whole opportunity to build pyrotechnics into the costume. Scot: [3:21] All right watch out for some evil Pokemon people that try to capture. Jason: [3:26] Yeah I think the big debate in our house which isn't hasn't fully happened yet is who's trick-or-treating with Stephen and who's staying behind to try to scare the bejesus out of neighborhood kids. Scot: [3:36] I'm thinking you and a gorilla suit or you could be in the last year's Pokemon suit or Pikachu suit that could be a fun combo. Jason: [3:45] Yeah last year I actually had knee surgery only a few days before Halloween so I won by default because I couldn't really walk but this year I feel like I have no good excuse. Scot: [3:56] Right as the title shows the purpose of this as we have some Amazon news to report on. Jason: [4:02] Amazon news your margin is there opportunity. Scot: [4:15] Well Jason it was a kind of interesting setup coming into Earth earning season this quarter the whole world was focused not on e-commerce not on marketplaces not on omni-channel not on payments some of our favorite topics but also not on ads one of your favorite topics but everyone is now obsessed with AI thanks to the success of chat Juju GPT so coming into the quarter Amazon was kind of on the backside of a lot of the other big companies so we had Microsoft come out and they did really well with AI the their partnership with open a.i. / chat gbt is bringing tons of workloads to azure. How much is their cloud computing platform and then Google really underwhelmed everyone with what they're doing there you know they're they're kind of tiptoeing it's very clear that they don't want to kill the Golden Goose that is Google search by putting too much AI to that so allow their experiments are in Bard which is kind of way off to the side I've tried barred three times I can never get it to have the features that they say it should because my corporate Google account you know either won't have access or it says that feature is not here yet. Um and I think people are really starting to worry about Google on this one. So then that teed it up where all eyes were on AWS to see how are they doing and I think we've covered this but. [5:44] The Amazons approach to this is to be kind of agnostic for lack of a better word so they're kind of like hey if you want to use. Any of these different models we're going to basically let you run them on AWS compute and we're going to have all kinds of different graphic Processing Unit or GPU tears available from you know their own chip set to older Nvidia chip sets to the new ones and kind of be y 0, LM bring your own large language model. [6:18] And then oh yeah also Facebook did pretty well and you know they're definitely through the worst of the Privacy changes that Apple put out and they have an approach to AI that is an open source one so they're basically saying hey we're going to integrate this in our products and what we build we're going to put out there kind of almost scorched Earth in a way saying why don't we just open source this thing and maybe that will slow down our competitors who are going to use this to to generate their own revenue and because they don't have a cloud piece they don't and they're pure advertising it doesn't really, Concord hurt them to do this so they're not making Cloud Revenue off of it but it's become a popular one and it's called llama in case anyone is it from there then, okay so just not to leave everyone in suspense because we usually talk about AWS kind of later in the Amazon update we're going to cover it first so the ended up having a really good ADB is showing so I would say people got kind of panicky and we're expecting it to be down and it kind of came in line. [7:22] But what that people excited was part of the talk track on the conference call Co jassy said that they're winning some big AI workloads they talked about some big deals had close towards the end of the quarter that we're pretty significant and what's happening is as you know what's what a i chat gbt is trained on the broader internet and anything that they can throw into there. [7:49] And that's interesting but what's happening is corporations and. Both big corporations for internal use but then also other corporations they're wanting to train a large language model on their data and they also don't want that data to kind of leak into the broader ecosystem so that's that's really benefiting Amazon because it turns out a lot of the data that companies want to train these lme's are are already in AWS so instead of paying all this money to pull the data out of AWS and then synchronize it back into your LM as as Amazon anticipated with this kind of open bring by0 LM model. People are bringing the LMS to them and using the data because it's already in AWS and it's easier for the llm to just kind of go right there and grab it versus moving the data around. [8:44] That may not make a lot of sense so let me give you kind of a random example let's say you're a big added see like I'll pick up, this one called publicist they're out of France and most people haven't heard of them and let's say that that French Ad Agency wanted to save a bunch of money they could take like. Let's say 3:00 of content from like a podcast transcript or something like that. And they could use that content let's say someone of their company like a detailed digital retail payment strategy vice president general manager type person with a big crazy title like that. They could put that data out there and run an llm on day ws and train that data on it. The llm on that data and then they could have for example just picking something random they could have a retailgeek bye. That was basically as good as the human probably ninety percent so good enough but you know this thing could run 24/7 you could actually you could have as many of them you could clone it on two different processors after you get through the training mode and you were in D quote-unquote inference mode and it also doesn't take breaks it doesn't need, Starbucks vanilla lattes constantly it doesn't have expense reports it just. Does its job and doesn't complain and doesn't ask for raises so that's that's a that's a use case that something like that would work did that make. Jason: [10:08] Specific hypothetical there Scott. Scot: [10:11] Is randomly chosen just kind of picked it out of the are there. Jason: [10:14] It almost sounds like the more words in your title the more vulnerable you would be to AI disruption. Scot: [10:20] I thought about that but it is does make sense because that's essentially more tokens for the AI to learn just like right there in your title you're basically asking for it if you're a robot Overlord you're kind of picking on who to go for a first I would look for large titles person. I don't know I don't know how their training these things. Jason: [10:37] There I know you're the investment guy in our podcast but there's this investment theory that you don't you don't, be the little guy chasing the big Trend that way you want to do is identify the secondary Trend and so in this scenario as soon as it seems like a i is ready to replace the the blowhard Talking Heads everyone should short Starbucks seems like the. Scot: [10:59] Mmm that's a good point yeah I hadn't thought about that. Jason: [11:02] Yeah because when I lose my job and can't afford those lattes I feel like something I would like I'll take some solace in knowing that you made some money on that. Scot: [11:14] Yeah they'll be like on their conference call we're still working on the data but we've isolated it to this to block window in Chicago and we're pretty sure we have an idea what's going on. Jason: [11:26] I feel like my Starbucks footprint is a lot bigger than Chicago. Scot: [11:29] Well you know the the core of your Bullseye answers is going around. Okay but in all seriousness this is a really interesting blurb from the call where they talked about their strategy gaining traction and they said there's multiple businesses are using their gen AI That's short for gender of a i. Apps on AWS including Adidas people in our European list listeners I think they call it a deed us but I'm here in America we call, here in South the southeast caught Adidas booking.com and United Airlines. And while Jenny eyes Revenue contribution remains small management suggested Revenue quote compares favorably. To some of the other leading providers and this is this is interesting because Amazon's always mum's on revealing anything until the SEC forces them to break out stuff like, for the longest time we didn't know at AWS was then we didn't know what ads were and then they became material enough they had to break them out so so Amazon under Bezos would never have said those words I've like even hinting about what's going on. [12:35] But kind of is interesting because there's a new sheriff in town and also it shows you how important it is that they let everyone know that they are not falling behind and that their room new quote-unquote compares favorably with other other Cloud providers obviously they're talking about Azure once Wall Street analyst I did it is back of the napkin and he kind of said all right I think that they're telling us this is always funny because it's like six degrees of. You know separation so who knows but they basically inferred what they were trying to say reading the tea leaves was that it's about a 400 million-dollar business and already two percentage points of AWS Revenue. Which was basically zero six months ago so that's that that is kind of an interesting thing that came out of nowhere and is already a 400 million quarterly business so that means it's a 1.6 billion annualized run rate business. [13:29] If they're reading the tea leaves right on that so that was the AI part so I thought I'd be important for us to get that out because that was kind of like the new cycle really centered around that, and it is interesting you know you and I are watching this very closely there are e-commerce ramifications you know there's all kinds of, The Innovation here is so rapid it's hard to keep up with there's all kinds of a eyes for creating product detail pages and you know all kinds of, e-commerce oriented support Bots and it's just like amazing a lot of AI applications for optimizing warehouses it's just like overwhelming how much is out there we're definitely in the, tippy top of the hype curve and you know a lot of businesses are still sorting through all this but that was the that was the. [14:16] Dean on e-commerce retail side of things and non ads with that behind us the other big win for the quarter I thought you'd want to kind of fill us in on was the advertising part what did you see there. Jason: [14:30] Yeah yeah I want to jump into ads I do want to just say quickly it's interesting on the AWS because they posted solid numbers they posted 12 percent growth for AWS and they announced that they won the whole dialogue was about all these AI workloads that you just covered but they haven't recognized much of the revenue from all of these new AI workload wins yet so the this 12% growth feels like. Kind of a win based on the Legacy Cloud business even before you start to factor in all this new traction they're getting, I'm AI workload so so that does seem interesting but I just want to reiterate what you started out by saying which is, the the bed at Amazon is that you're going to want to bring the llm to your data and not that you're going to want to bring your data to the llm and that, intuitively. [15:24] Makes a lot of sense so it seems like investors were always pretty happy with their the AI Cloud case that they made. Um so that being said. As far as I'm concerned an even bigger win for them was the ad business so so they generated 12 billion dollars in ad revenue for the quarter that's up 26 percent versus Q3 of last year. Year-to-date that means they're had businesses up 23% from the year before so you know we're comparing that to like the 11 or 12 percent growth they get on AWS. Um [16:02] The ad business grew 21 percent last year so it's grown 23 percent this year that impugns depending on how you factor in seasonality like a 46 to 50 billion dollar run rate for the ad business right now, so if you take a conservative estimate for the the the, margin rate on that business that's generating 2728 billion dollars worth of ibadah for Amazon which is a huge. Huge business and much more profitable than a WS by the way. So the ad business was very robust and a couple of injured interesting takeaways. Amazon is adding more and more video properties they have Thursday Night Football you know they announced that they're going to start embedding ads and Amazon Prime and they'll have a premium offering to bypass Those ads. So there's a lot of opportunity for. Kind of top of the funnel linear programming ads at Amazon none of that is in this. [17:09] 12 billion dollar number right now or very little like all of the potential they've they talked about for this for these non Commerce ads. Is all sort of incremental the weather getting right now. At the moment the vast majority of all Amazon's ads are bottom of the funnel the the sponsored product listing is by far the most. Popular ad that that's growing particularly well and with the particular mix of economic headwinds we have at the moment, a lot of advertising is Shifting to bottom of the funnel people are less interested in investing in awareness and more interested in investing in sales and Amazon turns out to be, the best destination to take that that those dollars to put them into digital ads that generate. Bottom of the funnel results so this quarter everyone was really interested to hear from the advertising companies, to see if advertisers were going to be cutting back right and so you know you mentioned meta had their their earnings call Google had their earnings call Facebook I'm sorry. [18:17] Snap had their their earnings call and ads were uniformly up across everyone's earning so metas ads were up 23%, Google's ads were up 11% Google broke out YouTube ads which were up 12% snap ads were at 5%. But nobody's ads were up as much the 26% that Amazon's were and nobody has had the consistently rapid add growth that Amazon's had the last three quarters. Um so the economic headwinds like do not appear to be. Putting a huge crimp in the the digital advertising business and they appear to be disproportionately benefiting, Amazon and so then you go wait next quarter they're going to be selling ads on all of their video programming and that could easily add another 5 billion dollars just for in to this this annual run rate so. A lot of green lights in the Amazon ad business. Scot: [19:21] The I'm not a huge Sports person but you mentioned Thursday night football and have you seen and kind of marrying this back today I think if you seem Prime Vision have you played with them. Jason: [19:31] I have yeah. Scot: [19:33] So for listeners what they do is on Thursday Night Football if you watch from actually I do it on my Apple TV and I'm in the Prime video app. And then you can it takes you to the standard broadcast just like every other thing but you can go in and then you hit down arrow and you can select a different broadcast which is, Prime vision and what it does they've added feature since they did it they started it they've added all these new AI features that are really amazing so during a pass play they'll show you the most likely Target they put like a Madden asked Circle in real time under the player and, he'll flash like green or something if he's a possible Target on the defense though they'll show a potential Blitzer. They'll show you fourth-down probabilities in real time you know and it's just amazing they've added tons of features of that since I've been watching it and I find it like really adds a ton to the game too. Kind of see you can see the strategy in real time mostly broadcasters you know they'll talk about it like Tony Rome or something but it's way after the play after they've had time to put together animation this is doing it all in real time it's just mind-blowing the amount of compute it must be thrown at that and you know I think it's a it could change the way you think about sports and in a really interesting way. Jason: [20:49] Oh yeah increasingly it's a better experience watching the game at home then you can get in the stadium. Scot: [20:54] Yeah the stadium doesn't do that. Jason: [20:56] They side note for soccer at the World Cup they actually did but you have to watch the whole game like through a are on your phone. Scot: [21:05] Let's see you at the stadium watching the game on your phone. Jason: [21:09] Yeah I mean and it was cool right like saying same sort of thing like it's overlaying all this real-time stats and probability was amazing. Like it's not a very good experience to like hold your phone up and have your camera on the whole time to sort of get all these stats and so. Yeah yeah side no Thursday Night Football is the bane of my existence because I do play Fantasy Football and I never have my act together to have my lineups all set before Thursday night so, usually the game starts and I have to pray that I don't have any super important players that I fail the start and then I can enjoy the game. Scot: [21:46] Okay understood anything else on Dad's. Jason: [21:53] No I think that covers it pretty well on ads you know just. We've we've talked about a lot on the show but the overwhelming success Amazon's having with ads has this of course trickle-down effect that every other player and commerce paste is trying to figure out how to monetize their their traffic and get their share and at the moment nobody's getting, anything like Amazon's add, Commerce ratio and of course the audience eyes is start dropping off really quick after Amazon right you know you get a lot less eyeballs at Walmart then you have it on Amazon and a lot less eyeballs it Target then you have it Walmart and you know once you get smarter than that it starts getting real fragmented real fast. Scot: [22:39] Yeah how do you were still there still even though that's a big number they're still like way far away from Facebook right so so number one is Google by a really big margin and number two is Facebook and then it's Amazon and they're like way ahead of everyone else but they have to even though they're outpacing them, a little bit it would be like decades before they caught up in my own remembering that right. Jason: [23:00] I'm not no I'm not going to say decades it's an order of magnitude it's like 102 million 100 to 200 billion dollar annual run rates for those other guys and. Scot: [23:13] But they're kind of getting to half right. Jason: [23:15] Yeah yeah they are like they there with like within 50 percent of Striking Distance of number two. Scot: [23:23] Yeah if you had said that to us five years ago we would not have believed it I would I would not have seen how I've been. Jason: [23:30] Yeah I've been playing that what would you have thought five years ago game a lot and you you know you talked about who all the winners are in AI if you said five years ago the AI is going to become a huge thing what company is going to win like you we would have all been on Google. Scot: [23:43] Yeah yeah or apple or it would not have been startup called open air that was nonprofit that flip to profit no one saw that coming including Elon Musk yeah. Jason: [23:55] And by opening I you mean Nvidia but yeah. Scot: [23:59] One tidbit I saw on ads I love the leak read the Wall Street reports and they largely talked about the same data but a lot of them are good at very good at modeling and they can when Amazon doesn't tell them something like they don't break out they break out the revenue for ads but they don't break out the profit so it kind of gets swept up into this larger number but then they give you enough pieces you can kind of back into it so one of my favorite analyst he's a friend of the show Scott Devitt he modeled back through there and to your point he basically said that the ad business has a 60%, EB de margin so net margin of 60 percent which is basically like just money raining at this like Google's business model which I guess makes sense because Bass. Jason: [24:46] Is it is good. Scot: [24:48] Yeah because it is Google's business model and this ties into you know you know more about this government stuff than I do but Google's in a pretty nasty fight with the FTC, or the DJ I can't remember some government Bureau important entity that that is claiming they have a monopoly on search and they're basically pointing over here and saying look at these Amazon guys they're closing in on us pretty quick and they always reference those stats that show you know like more than half the people start product searches and those online. Jason: [25:19] Yeah no it's super interesting I Scott Devin is way better at Financial models than me but I actually think he might be under estimating the profitability and part of it is. It's. There's a lot of room for gray area like if you think about the the Amazon business it's super fascinating you know the number one digital Advertiser in the United States of America is you know who buys more ads than anyone else. Amazon. 18 billion dollars a year of ads they buy just from Google so they buy 18 billion dollars worth of eyeballs from Google they use those eyeballs to sell a bunch of stuff that they make money on and then they sell 50 billion dollars are the pants to those eyeballs. Scot: [26:05] Ticket Arbitrage. Jason: [26:06] It's amazing eyeball Arbitrage and you know it's. So how much of that acquisition cost are you factoring into the profitability of the ad business versus the like I would argue that these are not separated bubble businesses as much as ever wants to talk about ads as a separate business to me it only exists because you have all this traffic for Commerce and it's it's a core part of the the Commerce math at this point but we shall. Scot: [26:39] Yeah when we did our instacart coverage of this one now instacart been public for a while and you look at their numbers they're basically only being the whole instacart business is being valued a zero except for that so they're basically trading like an ad company so all of Wall Street said okay that grocery part is kind of like that yeah is there we'll put it in like you know. [27:02] A hundred million dollars and then the ad business is like worth date hundred million dollar ad businesses where they gave it a really nice multiple of like 5x so that's interesting I'm sure, you're going to spoiler alert you're going to see a lot more ads on Insta guard the yeah a lot of people there is a negative and you know no one ever talks about this but a lot of people and this usually comes from a Amazon sellers and they always have kind of a love hate hate hate hate hate relationship with Amazon you know a lot of them would say and I hear this from consumers that the customer experience is the user experience is degraded on Amazon because there's just so many darn ads now you know the and I see it too if I'm looking for a specific thing I'm kind of like a dad at okay that's what I was looking for at some point there is cannibalization there and you know what we don't know is what did they lose from yeah doing this like was their product they didn't sell because people couldn't find it or we'll never really know that but you know kind of hope they're smart enough to figure that calculus Alden make it a huge net positive versus the cannibalization getting close to the ebitda contribution. Jason: [28:10] Oh yeah no I think two things like there definitely is an impact on customer experience and every retailer that gets into this space has a different philosophy about that and Amazon's appears to be the monetization is just worth it but you know you think about everyone other retailers that are not waiting and quite so hard, are trying to balance that and then the new interesting thing is if you're any retailer other than Amazon where all your eyeballs really are is not on your website it's in your store right and but you go we'll wait a minute, the these disruptions that people might tolerate as digital disruptions on a website they may not top you know nobody wants to junk a fi, um a physical store experience with a bunch of you know make it feel like you walked into Times Square every time you walk into, retail store so there's all this interesting calculus on where everyone should land on that the other interesting thing to me is for a while there was a. [29:13] An opportunity for the best practitioners to get outside return so there was a subset of all those Amazon sellers that were really good at the Amazon ad, execution right and they did their smart about where they put their bids they were smarter about the attributes they put in their ad there are smarter about the creative they made for their ad and they could get outside Returns versus other sellers on Amazon but the first Trends you mentioned the AI affectation of this whole business. [29:43] Has sort of made the best practices, dummy proof right and so now you know you just hand a product shot to Amazon and it makes the ad for you and you turn over the bidding strategy to Amazon and it optimizes your bidding for you and so it's squeezing more of the potential profit like out of all of these these other businesses that are built on top of Amazon because it's, kind of. Normalizing the the ad business to everyone and it just becomes a pure pay to pay like who's going to be the most for this eyeball. Scot: [30:21] Yeah kind of supports your theory that maybe the Madonna's higher because they don't have a lot of people sitting there at adding images or something like would they used to do back in the olden days. Jason: [30:31] Is that you used to need this thing called what is it called Ad Agency. Scot: [30:35] Yeah good cut the if you can just get one of those Bots I discussed or just like you have a some a I do it for him. Jason: [30:40] Yeah yeah that was a funny example a few minutes ago. Scot: [30:44] Unrelated news Jason is brushing up to c v so hit him up the so just to zoom out to the big picture so so we kind of dove into the to topical things A to B Us / Ai and adds, those together really causing Amazon to beat Revenue that they came in about one percent higher than Revenue so it was kind of like a slight beat / meat but where they really exceeded oh and revenue came in at 143 billion were they really crushed it was operating income and these two contributed to it but also retail did some interesting things that also yeah I think dramatically helped beat expectations operating income came in at eleven point two billion and expectations which is Wall Street consensus is what they say was seven point seven billion you know so that's like what let's like. Five per billion beat you know like a huge be compared to whatever. Jason: [31:49] 35%. Scot: [31:51] Yeah so that push the stock up 10% and then also we'll talk about guidance and that was positive so, it's been interesting Amazon stock has been kind of in a you know. Funk for lack of better words has been con rallying around at the same level and literally for quite a while like 18 months and this was the first Catalyst to cause a big move and that it's market cap a 10% move at Amazon Lester look we'll get one of our researchers here one of the interns I look okay. So you know they were like 1.2 trillion and now they're like 1.4 trillion so that's you know a move like that takes a lot of dollars when you're bigger than a trillion dollar business to move things it's like a lot of. A lot of value creation can happen in a 1.2 trillion dollar company when it shoots up ten percent in five trading days. Jason: [32:44] 10% 0 by a lot of rocket fuel. Scot: [32:46] It will yes a lot of dates with helicopter Pilots as well and a lot of cool new clothes, so there were some really interesting things you know we spend the bulk of our time here on the Pod talking about retail and e-commerce to our favorite topics so Jason there's a lot of really interesting stuff going on in there as well you want to fill us in on that. Jason: [33:08] Yeah everyone just wants to talk about ads and AI but it turns out that Amazon is actually a pretty good retailer. And so the the retail business also had a good quarter and to kind of set the table, every every listener the show knows I love my US Department of Commerce data so that came out last week 4. [33:31] September which gives us Q3 data for the industry so us retail data in September this was up one point year-to-date sales in the United States January through September we're at one point nine percent this year versus last year. It's a 35 percent versus before the pandemic in 2019 so 1.9% is not very good growth by historical standards we would normally expect about 4% growth. So if we just look at Q3 growth the industry was up 2% which again half of what you would typically expect. So Amazon's growth for Q3 is 11 percent versus that that industry number of 2% so 11% growth, is very robust the if you kind of, look at Amazon's growth since the pandemic that Q3 number means they're up 85 percent versus Q3 2019 and their year-to-date number is up 111 percent versus 2019. [34:33] So Amazon is a very large retailer arguably number one or number two retailer in the US now, and they're growing way faster than the industry average, and again depending on how you count Walmart would be the number two retailer which is also growing significantly faster than the industry average so that actually, tells you everything you need to know about the rest of the retail industry is that where you know we're having a significant bifurcation and with winners and losers in the space. [35:07] The other side of the retail business for Amazon is international and historically North America has been a very mature Market that has grown and generated profits, International has not made money for Amazon and I would say it was a mixed bag in terms of their International performance, on a constant currency basis International sales were up 11% which it's a smaller less mature business so you'd like to see it growing faster than the, the mature North American Market, um but they're operating loss is way smaller so last year this quarter they lost 2.5 billion dollars this year they only lost a hundred million dollars so nearly break it even for the quarter. Um the this did not come up in their their earnings and no one asked them about this but Marketplace pulse reported earlier this month. That appears Amazon has. Meaningfully curtailed their International expansion and a lot of markets they had announced they were expanding into they seem to have delayed. Postponed or canceled a lot of international market openings, so International definitely is not the start of the show it is also true of a lot of the other markets that say that Amazon's in still have more. [36:26] Just general macroeconomic headwinds than the United States does at the moment a lot of the world has a more severe version of the same macroeconomic problems that we have. In the US so a couple interesting tidbits. [36:44] But in the discussion about the retail business that you know the CFO Bryant. [36:54] Scot I always pronounce his name wrong alsop ski, um brett-brett else got a soft ski talked about how despite the fact that their they had nice growth in retail that they are seeing a cautious consumer who's generally trading down and more Deal seeking, then usual and that's consistent with, cautions that we've heard from other retailers that actually gives me some significant pause for Holiday which we'll talk about later, the the thing that that Amazon was really touting in the retail business is that they dramatically improve their cost to serve, and their speed of delivery in Q3 and that largely was thanks to an initiative they started a couple of quarters ago, this transition from a single National fulfillment Network. To a regional fulfillment Network where they have eight distinct District regions in the United States, that each sort of operate independently in the goal is to have all the the inventory that that Scot Wingo wants to buy, in his region so the goods have to travel less far are less expensive to get to him, and get to him faster and what they announced in the earnings was that the transition to this this. [38:19] Regional model has gone better and exceeded their expectations they're getting more. Incremental profit and faster speed of delivery than they even projected, um out of transitioning to that so this is. [38:37] I know we talked a lot about how big and what a huge moat Amazon would just accept our but I still feel like this is under appreciated by most Amazon's competitors and their there. They're just opening a bigger Gap in speed of service and one of the things they mentioned is that they see a direct correlation between consumable sales and speed of service when they promised that they can get them there faster they sell more paper towels, so I think it's very clear that that consumers want speed of service, and Amazon has a huge advantage and it appears to be getting even bigger so that's interesting another thing I talk about a lot. [39:20] Um is there's a few new retailers that are also stealing significant share, um very quickly and they're primarily Chinese companies so it's she in and most notably Tim oh, and so well like they certainly didn't come up in the Amazon earnings a lot of the analysts started looking at the the, rapid growth that Tim is getting and trying to figure out if they're stealing share from Amazon and evercore did a big consumer survey, and the results of their survey was that Tim ooh is mostly not stealing share from Amazon that most of its shares coming from, other retailers and in many cases coming from brick-and-mortar value retailers in the US so the dollar stores and it appears that that Amazon is more insulated from the. The growth and profit that they're getting so all of that you know rolls up to be a pretty impressive. Quarter I you've talked about it a lot but it kind of feels like Amazon's got a bunch of knobs that they can turn whenever they want to improve profitability and it feels like, they both added more knobs that can turn this quarter and they turn some of them. Scot: [40:37] Yeah the other thing that's really interesting is if you look at. Amazon and you can't really read because they have so many employees in the Fulfillment centers you can't really tell their employee growth and it's surging right now is they prefer prepare for holiday but another really interesting trend is Google meta and there's one of the other ones Microsoft their revenue per employee is surging so they're they're actually not hiring many people right now and, the assumption is these companies are leveraging AI internally and becoming exceedingly efficient and you kind of wonder. Is Amazon doing the same thing I hear inklings we have kids that are not so far out of college they don't know folks looking for jobs and things I hear inklings that Amazon is not really hiring that much as they kind of were at one point so I kind of wonder, are they also hiding behind that that have like a million employees and it surges like 200,000 for holiday so it doesn't look like they're being more productive but what they don't do is put out corporate versus fulfillment center. Have to have an idea that if we looked at corporate there also. [41:48] One dial they've turned its new is I think they're not hiring as me folk because people are getting a lot of efficiencies from these AI. Systems that these companies are dogfooding internally. And because they're they're a little bit further ahead than kind of like what we see out of the lme's I think they're doing some really interesting things that they will productized and we will we will see what they're doing in a lot of it can be this like really focused you know create an ad you know a lot of the stuff that used to be, kind of out sourced or you would have to throw a bunch of bodies at it I think there's LMS doing a lot of that you know customer support Bots think things like that that you know I think there's a lot of efficiencies going on inside of their that's helping these guys really beat their earnings numbers. Jason: [42:38] Yeah I do think that's true it's not lost on me that just as the retailgeek bought is gonna replace me at poobah says all the other places that might have hired me are also not so my fallback is that I may be washing cars at spiffy so we'll see how that. That all plays out but I promise to work hard of it if it comes to that Scott. Scot: [42:58] Absolutely it also we could just turn this podcast into the entire ads so that could be could be here our second asked yeah. Jason: [43:04] We can monetize the podcast I'm not I'm not doing that to the listeners they advertisers would make us make a shorter podcast Scott. Scot: [43:13] Yeah yeah. Jason: [43:14] I'm not down for that I'm not down for it. Even if I have to wash cars the I think you're certainly right like a lot of these companies and Amazon very overtly has has put some more barriers and in place in terms of corporate hires. The one notable exception being the AI space they're hiring pretty rapidly. Um but I also think in addition anything you mentioned that Amazon's actually finally like really leaning into the Fulfillment center automation so while they've always. Been a leader in in having fulfillment center, not all their fulfillment centers in a big chunk of their fulfillment centers were not highly automated and so I think they're now automating all of them and they're rapidly moving to sort of next-gen automation. Um you know where everyone else is kind of putting their first robots and you know moving things around the warehouse more efficiently. Amazon is like rolling out new technology that's a lot more. Seamless in how the people and the automation work together in a in a safe cohesive way so I do think one of the levers Amazon has is. You know to really add more Automation in those in those fulfillment centers and in that cost to serve. Scot: [44:39] Absolutely it's kind of interesting because we started spiffy, which is my on-demand car care company where you're going to come wash cars people are like AI is you know they'll be a robot that can do this in five years I was like I don't know like you know the Boston Dynamics robots are cool but they're not. Let's just programmed well I don't think it's like that you know it's not thinking and who would have guessed that a I would replace you know the digital retail Talking Heads first and and not. Not the physical things I think the physical stuff is going to take a lot longer but who knows once these a eyes you have there's Tesla has that that demonstration of theirs was The Optimist that you know it kind of is learning things as it goes and making inference in real time so that is kind of you know we who knows where all this is going to go. If we back to it now and not science fiction but your term science fiction so. [45:37] Looking forward for fourth quarter they put guidance out that they're going to see growth in the fourth quarter of 7 to 12% the midpoint of that range which let's see would be 9 and change itself was five and a half percent above the consensus midpoint so this is what we would call A Classic. Meet Top Line Crush bottom line on the current quarter and then raised the next quarter both top and bottom line pretty substantially so that you know. This is an important data point when we kind of swirl it together with your Department of Commerce data it does seem like Amazon signaling they're feeling pretty good about the fourth quarter and everyone felt like this was kind of conservative given I didn't put the bottom line number but they felt like that was pretty conservative given what they just did and you know they felt like dad a lot of room to kind of beat that number and maybe it's going to be more like 14 15 percent growth which would be you have a new post covid reversion hi I guess you would look at it where do you did you leave this feeling more optimistic about Q4 or we are your classic Jason curmudgeon myself. Jason: [46:54] Yeah no I think I'm mostly curmudgeon e not for Amazon I actually I think their guidance seems realistic to me. [47:06] On the top line I think the bottom line is just totally up to their whims like if they want to blow away the bottom line they can if they want to invest at all in you know new. [47:18] New AI capabilities and and keep the bottom line constrain they can do that too but the that, Top Line I think they're likely to hit their guidance and again you know one or two other big retailers might you know have a pretty robust holiday as well but I actually think that that sucks all the, the potential growth out of the market for holiday and so I actually think. That sort of signifies potentially Bleak holiday season for a lot of other traditional retailers so I guess it's a. Little bifurcated it's good news for Amazon will see what a Walmart's Q3 earnings look like they announced on November 16th, but I do feel like endemic lie Amazon and Walmart have some, some inherent advantages that are insulating them from some of the economic headwinds and I think that that really just makes things, that much more difficult for the the rest of retail and so I desperately want to be wrong but I think it's going to be, I kind of disappointing holiday for a bunch of folks there also was sort of some if you really listen to the Q&A portion of the investor call, there. [48:45] The the CFO in particular had some concerns about capacity around Q4 and one of the things he called that was carrier capacity which is interesting because Amazon does so much. Of their own fulfillment now that they're just way less dependent on third-party carriers but if he's worried about carrier capacity for Q4 you can bet that means that every other retailer ought to be really concerned, about carrier capacity for cube Q4, and so we you know we feel like we talked about that every holiday season but Amazon's got a lot of. New fulfillment center capacity that's coming online in Q3 of this year and will even in Q4 and so I guess. If there's one thing that could glitch it Amazon if there's not enough delivery capacity if some of these new fulfillment centers have any, any sort of glitches or delays and coming online that you know that that could be the constraining factor for their Q4 growth. Scot: [49:50] There's so sprinkle of curmudgeon e speaking of holiday where can listeners go if they want to get the best holiday news even though we haven't been potting as much as we want to because our day jobs have been absorbing a fair amount of time this year we are going to have some killer content around this holiday and kicking it off we have our very own jacent live not an AI and you're going to do a little webinar for Commerce next what's that all about and when is it. Jason: [50:22] Yeah yeah so on Monday November 6 which I think is a week from now if I'm not mistaken we're doing a Commerce next webinar where we'll sort of preview the holiday season so you heard the very early preview just now but we'll go into more detail share some of the third-party forecast for Holiday Good News, all the other predictors are much more optimistic than I am so so we'll hit that on November 6 and then of course there will be all the good real time holiday news that will be will be hitting pretty hot and heavy here on the podcast so we'll we'll have some of the best data sources, right before and after the holiday to kind of talk about where things are going and what actually. [51:15] And with that I think it is happen again we've used up all our allotted time as always if this deep dive in Amazon's earnings was valuable for you the way you can repay that value is to jump on iTunes and give us that five-star review. Scot: [51:31] Thanks everyone and Jason until next time. Jason: [51:34] Happy conversing.
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Join us as we dive into the world of real estate investment services with guest Dan Lewkowicz. Discover his secrets to maximizing returns and minimizing risks in the industry. But be warned, his shocking encounter with a mysterious investor leaves him in a difficult situation, with the outcome hanging in the balance. Stay tuned for this suspenseful episode that will leave you wanting more. Introducing Dan Lewkowicz, a tenacious leader who's rapidly shaped the commercial real estate industry. Priceless advice and innovative strategies are hallmarks of Dan's nearly 20-year career journey. His prowess has been instrumental to the success of Encore Real Estate Investment Services, where he serves as the Senior Director. Under his guidance, the firm has excelled, realizing transactions worth $985 million. His expertise isn't confined to leadership alone; Dan is also the brains behind the CRE Pro Course, making him a trusted mentor in the industry. “Recognize the opportunities in real estate to take something and make it better. It's the power to create change and improve people's lives that excites me.” In this episode, you will be able to:· Acquire knowledge to enhance your real estate investment portfolio, soaring profits while shrinking risks.· Empower yourself to face adversities head-on, transforming trials into triumphs.· Delve into the resilience phenomenon, your passport from the depths of despair to the pinnacle of success.· Decode the intricacies of the Detroit real estate market, turning its unique dynamics to your favor.· Master the practice of establishing boundaries and instilling discipline, a winning strategy for success in real estate and life at large.· Check out Encore Real Estate Investment Services: Visit their website to learn more about their services and how they can assist you with your commercial real estate needs.· Explore the CRE Pro Course: If you're interested in learning about commercial real estate, consider enrolling in the CRE Pro Course created by Dan Lewkowicz. Real Estate Investment OptimizationMaximizing returns and minimizing risks are fundamental strategies in real estate investment. Emphasizing on sourcing properties, raising capital, and project management can lead to successful house-flipping ventures. Even though it requires a significant amount of effort and can be riskier, it serves as a stepping stone to more advanced real estate investing. Books and ResourcesInfluence: The Psychology of Persuasion, Revised EditionMulti-Family Millions: How Anyone Can Reposition Apartments for Big Profits Connect with Dan Lewkowicz:LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-lewkowicz/PHONE NUMBER: 248-943-2838COMPANY: https://encoreinvestmentrealestate.com/FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/TheLewkowiczGroupINSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/danlewk/CRE PRO COURSE: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFNetawHvNlpWqEnIX_W9fw Connect with usWEBSITE: https://www.adversity2abundance.comLeave us a rating or review: https://www.adversity2abundance.com/reviews/new/ or hereGot comments, feedback or suggestions? We'd love to hear it! https://www.adversity2abundance.com/contact/ Follow Labrador LendingWEBSITE: https://labradorlending.com/YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChYrpCUlqFYLy4HngRrmU9Q Connect with JamieLINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamie-bateman-5359a811/TWITTER: https://twitter.com/batemanjames
Before our PA Governor-appointed public official guest joins us, I discuss how autonomous cars expect to change real estate. Richard Vague, Pennsylvania's Secretary of Banking and Securities from 2020-2023 joins us. We're in the state capital of Harrisburg, PA. We discuss America's beginnings in real estate and banking from around 1800. He tells us about the health of banks in the wake of recent failures due to higher interest rates. I ask Richard about full reserve banks vs. fractional lending banks. Great Britain prohibited colonists from owning land west of the Appalachians. The basis of early land wealth were crops grown on the land—wheat, corn, tobacco, indigo, and rice. Mortgages around 1800 were often 50% LTV and 6% interest rates. Here in the 2020s, Richard believes that private sector debt is a larger problem than public debt. Wherever debt growth is most rapid are where the economic cracks exist. Inflation benefits the Top 10% of the economic strata. Private debt becomes unsustainable around 225% of GDP. In the US, it's currently 160%. You become insolvent when you cannot make interest-only payments. That's true for you as an individual, or a nation. If these topics interest you, check out Richard's new book, “The Paradox of Debt” at ParadoxOfDebt.com. Timestamps: America's beginnings with banking, real estate, and debt [00:00:01] Discussion on the historical influence of Pennsylvania banking on the formation of US banking, including figures like Robert Morris and Alexander Hamilton. The impact of autonomous vehicles on real estate [00:02:54] Exploration of the potential effects of autonomous vehicles on real estate, including reduced need for parking and changes in commuting patterns. The role of the Secretary of Banking and Securities in Pennsylvania [00:09:20] Insight into the responsibilities of the Secretary of Banking and Securities in Pennsylvania, including oversight of banks and consumer protections. The fractional reserve lending system [00:10:44] Explanation of how banks operate through fractional reserve lending and the possibility of full reserve banks. The origins of the US banking system and the role of Thomas Willing [00:12:06] Discussion on the founding of the US banking system and the involvement of Thomas Willing, the first banker in the United States. The land crisis of 1796-1797 and its impact on Robert Morris [00:14:14] Exploration of the financial crisis caused by land speculation and how it led to Robert Morris, a prominent figure in credit ratings, ending up in debtor's prison. The formation of the nation and its intersection with banking [00:21:50] Discussion on the short-term loans and interest rates during the formation of the United States and the role of debt in the westward expansion. Private sector debt and its growth [00:25:30] Exploration of the significant increase in private sector debt since World War II and the focus on the potential issues associated with it. Debt growth as an indicator of economic crises [00:28:23] Insight into how rapid debt growth, particularly in the private sector, can serve as a predictor of economic crises and the shortcomings of economic models that exclude debt as a factor. The paradox of debt [00:31:47] Debt creates wealth, using leverage and appreciation to generate wealth. The end game of private debt [00:33:29] When the requirement to service debt slows the economy down to near zero. Inflation profiting with real estate [00:37:42] Real estate is not just an inflation hedging vehicle, but an inflation profiting vehicle due to fixed interest rate debt and rising rents. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/472 Richard Vague's new book: ParadoxOfDebt.com For access to properties or free help with a GRE's Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. I'm sitting down in Pennsylvania with the governor's appointed state secretary of banking and securities. What were America's beginnings with banking, real estate and debt? Learn how this affects you as an investor today. And what does America's day of debt reckoning look like today on Get Rich Education? Speaker 2 (00:00:28) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. Speaker 1 (00:00:44) - Welcome from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to Harrisonburg, Virginia, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold and you're listening to Get Rich. Education has been the Keystone state of Pennsylvania this week. In just a few minutes, you'll hear my sit down with secretary of banking and Securities for this great state of Pennsylvania from 2020 to 2023. The rather distinguished guest also sits on the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania's Board of Trustees. And before we're done, I'll be sure he understands at least one core principle here and get his opinion on that. Yeah, I visited seven US states so far here in the past month and I'll continue to visit so much of the United States. Speaker 1 (00:01:28) - In fact, I might have done more driving this past month than at any time in my life. Now. Some people are really car people. We have this kind of car culture in the United States for some evidence that younger people aren't as interested in that is older people. I mean, some people, they get really excited about new car features or new dashboard interfaces or hybrids or EVs and charging stations. You know, none of that is really that interesting to me. However, you know, the one new car feature that I actually really care about and I'm waiting to go more mainstream. Any idea the one game changing car feature that I really can't wait to get here because it's really going to improve your quality of life. And mine and I talked about this way back in Get Rich Education Episode 13 in the year 2015 is something that is still expected to have substantial ramifications for real estate, and that feature is autonomous vehicles, also known as driverless cars. I mean, as much of the world that's automated these days and digitize, it feels like something is out of whack to have all of this technology that you have in your car today. Speaker 1 (00:02:54) - Yet even if you're on cruise control out on Interstate 80, like I have been a lot lately, you've mostly got to keep your eyes glued to the car bumper in front of you. Yes. And the car that reliably drives itself. That's the new feature that I really want. I mean, imagine for you to be able to get some sleep or scroll your phone or I know that it sounds funny, even exercise while your car drives itself. And of course this still pretends to have a real impact on real estate. Cars will really need to be owned. It's just the subscription service that you order. A car comes to pick you up and then it drops you off where you need to go. So these cars just continue to stay in motion out there. You don't need a garage so much. And this means that cities won't need nearly as much parking. So parking lots are less important, parking garages are less important. And since you can be more productive while you're a passenger in the car drives itself, well, therefore, those neighborhoods that are say no one hour outside of the center or metro area, well, those areas won't have as much of a price discount because autonomous cars lower your time expense in commuting. Speaker 1 (00:04:16) - But autonomous car adoption has been slower to develop than a lot of people, including me, expected. I mean, there have been a lot of experiments, But see, what happens is an experimental autonomous car crash that just makes more news than a human created car crash. And that has really slowed adoption. So yeah, I'm not so into cars. The only feature that's on the horizon that really gets me interested is winning back some of my time with autonomous cars. Hey, we have a ton of great podcast episodes lined up here at some of the most brilliant minds in the real estate and money world. Continue to join me coming up soon. Here on the show is the return of a really dynamic guest. He goes by the nickname the mad scientist of multifamily in the industry. Some call the amount of multifamily, mobile home parks self in other commercial real estate investors that have these floating interest rates, the amount of those people, it's almost insane. Higher rates are going to bring those deals down and investors will keep losing money in those deals. Speaker 1 (00:05:27) - That's what the mad scientist of multifamily and I are going to focus on them. Yes, these people that learn how to perhaps do syndications through TikTok videos, they are losing their deals. Isn't that really is too bad because that reputation seriously that. The good operator, so we're going to sort that out for you. Then on a later episode here, one of the sharpest economic minds in the entire world joins us to discuss why the recession didn't happen as soon as he and a lot of others thought and what that means for the future of stocks and real estate and commodity prices. All of that is in the near future here on the show. But today I'm visiting my home state of Pennsylvania, where I've lived most of my life. It is the fifth most populous state, despite not being that large by area and despite the fact there are still a ton of rural areas in Pennsylvania, and of the five biggest states, Pennsylvania may very well have the deepest history. So we'll dig into some real history today. Speaker 1 (00:06:31) - Pennsylvania banking was influential on the formation of United States banking, including that of Robert Morris. He's a pretty well known name, but he was succeeded by a better no name. Right after Robert Morse, we had Alexander Hamilton in that banking role. But yeah, Pennsylvania Robert Morris, he is known as the very financier of the American Revolutionary War. As we're about to discuss the nation's beginnings, America's formative years in land and real estate hundreds of years ago. Look, if a hundred years ago, a colonist or an early American, if he or she said this, I'm going to buy a piece of property and develop it. Okay. What do you think that meant when they said that today? If you said, I'm going to buy a piece of property and develop it, well, most people would think that you're going to build a housing development. But back then it probably meant that you were going to clear your land of trees and planted for agriculture and you're going to grow wheat or corn or tobacco. Speaker 1 (00:07:37) - That was the discussion you were having then. What crop are you developing on your real estate? It sure wasn't. Are you going to develop apartments or condos or single family homes? That's how it might sound today. In fact, the 1790 census that shows that roughly 90% of the American population was employed in agriculture. 90%. So your real estate income was largely derived on your crop yield, which you might use to pay your debt on your land. Let's start this interview that I expect to be wide ranging as we'll take it from yesteryear up to the present day. This week's guest has served as secretary of banking and securities for the great state of Pennsylvania from 2020 to 2023. It is a cabinet level agency here in the state capital of Harrisburg. He was appointed to that position by Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf today. He is managing partner of Gabriel Investments as well based in Philadelphia. And today he's the author of an interesting new book. It's titled The Paradox of Debt A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis. Welcome to Richard Vague. Speaker 3 (00:08:53) - Thank you so much for having me. Speaker 1 (00:08:55) - It's good to have you. For those of you listening in, the audio only vague is spelled vague. You and Richard, as Pennsylvania's secretary of banking and Securities, I know that you have various deputy secretaries that assist you. Tell me. I'm going to venture to guess that that role includes acts like the oversight of banks and various consumer protections. Are they important parts of that role? Speaker 3 (00:09:20) - Without question. The fundamental job is looking to the safety and soundness of the banks chartered here in Pennsylvania to make sure they don't fail. And we all saw the importance of that recently. Silicon Valley bank failed in California. And I think if we'd had the caliber of examiners out in California that the folks here in Pennsylvania or that might not have happened. Speaker 1 (00:09:44) - That's a nice compliment to those that have that oversight here in state, Richard. It sure has been interesting with interest rates actually not being historically high, but at the rate that they change and the rate that they spiked, making some things break everything else to tell us about that role with the oversight that you had of banks and consumer protections in Pennsylvania and really what everyday depositors are concerned with. Speaker 3 (00:10:10) - Everyday depositors are concerned with getting the highest yield they can. Sure. And certainly they've been rewarded more lately than they have been over the last, let's say, ten years prior to that. But they also should be concerned about the safety and soundness of the bank they deposit with. And I think a lot of folks forgot that lesson. You know, a few years passed from a crisis and folks aren't worried about whether their bank's going to be around so much anymore. I'm really pleased to report the banks here in Pennsylvania are in really good shape. Speaker 1 (00:10:44) - Richard, I don't even think that everyday depositors understand the fractional reserve lending institution system, which is really how most banks operate, and that is when a depositor gives the bank money or the money goes ahead and lends that out, that difference, that spread being their arbitrage, which is how they stay in business. I've got a rather interesting question, perhaps are full oil reserve banks feasible as the norm? And what I'm talking about there is banks that can't lend depositors money out and instead that bank needs to profit by charging fees to depositors. Speaker 1 (00:11:23) - Now, I know everyone likes to get something for free, but would that be a more responsible system? Are full reserve banks feasible at all? Speaker 3 (00:11:31) - If you did that. You know, that's something I've studied quite a bit, and that was a very active question, by the way. Yeah. In the founding of our banking system here in Pennsylvania in 1781, it's a question that's been around forever. Any economy needs to have money created in order to grow, and the banking system is what does that now. But if you banned that in the banking system, it would just have to happen somewhere else. Speaker 1 (00:11:58) - Were there any prominent names that were involved with the setup of banking in Pennsylvania? Speaker 3 (00:12:06) - The name that you hear the most is the guy named Robert Morris, who was the head of it was in effect, the secretary of the Treasury during the Revolutionary War. But his senior partner was the original banker in the United States, and his name was Thomas Willing in history has more or less forgotten him. And that's, by the way, the subject of my next book. Speaker 3 (00:12:30) - I'm in the Middle of writing a biography of the origins of the US banking system and our first banker, Thomas Wells. Speaker 1 (00:12:38) - There is a Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania, of course, and we're talking about history here, Richard. And I know that you have an excellent sense of history about the nation's beginnings in land and in real estate. Can you speak to that? Speaker 3 (00:12:55) - The United States was all about land from the very beginning. You had massive land grants like to William Penn to found the state in the first place. But almost immediately after the founding of the country, you know, one of the reasons we had the American Revolution is because Great Britain prohibited colonists for owning land west of the Appalachian Mountains. And that was very frustrating to people like George Washington and others who had surveyed really lush pieces of land in the Ohio Valley. Immediately after the success of the revolution, the wealthy investors in America began buying millions and millions of acres towards the west, in the Ohio Valley, in Kentucky, in New York, in western Pennsylvania and the like, and got into trouble and brought the first financial crisis in US history, the land crisis of 1796 and 1797, because they were buying all that land on credit, either from the landholder, the private landholder or the the state or commonwealth that the land was in. Speaker 3 (00:14:14) - They bought this under the presumption that the value of real estate would always go up and of course it just didn't go up fast enough. And Robert Morris to speak of someone actually ended up in debtor's prison because he overextended himself, which is somewhat ironic since he's something of a icon for credit ratings and credit prudence. And yet he was very much of a wild speculator and ended up in prison destitute. Speaker 1 (00:14:45) - This is really interesting. Okay. And nefarious character early on in America's private real estate development, when the Appalachian mountain range in the late 1700s was deemed as the frontier to a lot of people. Speaker 3 (00:14:59) - Absolutely. Everybody was looking west of there for the big games and the big opportunities. Speaker 1 (00:15:06) - I mean, this is part of Manifest Destiny and the American Dream. So can you tell us more about a lot of that land in the early days west of the Appalachian Mountains? How much did the government claim is theirs and sell to private landowners on credit? And then how much were private landowners taking and were they allowed to make land claims and then sell it to someone else? Or tell us more about those early beginnings of that real estate setup? Speaker 3 (00:15:34) - Well, that's exactly right. Speaker 3 (00:15:35) - Most of that land was owned by the colonies, which in 1776 became states. The states own that land. The states all incurred massive debts in prosecuting the revolution itself. So by the time you get to 1783, 1787 states are deeply in debt and bondholders of state debt are not getting paid interest. And one way to alleviate that crisis was to sell land and selling it an acre here, an acre. There wasn't going to do you any good. So the states were selling land of 100,000 acre parcel a year, a million acre parcel there. Now, the guys that bought that, at first they were thinking, we'll do it, we'll develop towns, will lay out the towns, will survey them, will sell them, will attract settlers into this realm, will sell it plot buy plot to these settlers. But it was pretty clear that was a pretty slow way to make your money back. So they started looking to the wealthy in Europe and started sending brochures and agents to Europe to in essence, be able to flip their land in Early on, they were very successful at that. Speaker 3 (00:16:54) - Guys like William Bingham, who was the richest man in America, and Robert Morris, who was one of the richest, would make, you know, 100,000 here and 100,000 there, which is tantamount to making tens of millions. Now that ended. They started doing bigger speculations. There weren't the settlers to buy it. The Europeans got a little bit smarter. You had a major national financial crisis, including, by the way, it wasn't just those Western lands. One of the biggest parts of the financial calamity was in the new town of Washington, DC, where they were moving the government, and people came in, including Robert Morris, thinking it's the seat of government where this is going to be a boomtown. And a lot of folks got into deep trouble speculating on plots in Washington DC. Speaker 1 (00:17:42) - And if you're the listener, think that this sounds rather unorganized and free wheeling. Of course, we just need to think back a little bit earlier as to what happened when we as colonists went ahead and wrested the land away from the natives as well, of course. Speaker 1 (00:17:57) - But yeah, Richard, you talked about some of the draw and the appeal to some of the land around Washington, D.C. there along the Potomac River. But just generally overall, in a lot of cases, this new American government, who were the land sellers trying to attract or were they trying to attract them to do, for example, was it to only and to set up a farm for agriculture or was it for trapping or what attracted people to this new land grab, if you will? Speaker 3 (00:18:24) - The basis of wealth early on in the United States was the crops that we grew. And that obviously, first and foremost was wheat and the biggest supplier of wheat, not just in the United States, but to Europe was Pennsylvania. That's why Philadelphia became the largest city in the United States. Then just south of US and Maryland and Virginia. You had tobacco, which was our number one crop, but it was our number one export. South of that, you had indigo and rice. The further north you got, there really wasn't a lot of arable land. Speaker 3 (00:19:03) - And that's why, you know, places like Massachusetts had to turn the manufacturing so heavily. It was really that. And fishing for cod were the only thing they could do. So, yeah, absolutely. We were a breadbasket for not just the country, but the world almost from the beginning. Speaker 1 (00:19:21) - You talk early on about the extension of credit and how that enabled settlers to go ahead and own some of this new land? Is this sort of the early formation of long term mortgages? When did that. Speaker 4 (00:19:35) - Occur? Speaker 3 (00:19:36) - Well, absolutely. You know, really from well before independence. One of the problems you had is that there wasn't enough currency to really facilitate economic growth. So they began issuing paper currency in various forms. And a lot of these were very successful. This was done at the state level. And what they would do is they would create land banks. And so you would go in and take your land as a farmer. You would take it to the land bank and you could get currency up to half the value of your land and you'd pay interest on it. Speaker 3 (00:20:14) - So it was really was a de facto mortgage, a. Speaker 1 (00:20:18) - 50% mortgage, a. Speaker 3 (00:20:19) - 50% mortgage, and you could spend that currency. They were well managed early on. Most of these didn't work, failed. And the first real commercial bank was Thomas Williams Bank in 1781 and Philadelphia. Speaker 1 (00:20:35) - What were interest rates like at this time in these formative years of our nation. Speaker 3 (00:20:40) - For bigger transactions, the range was really just 5 to 6%. It might get down to four, might get up to seven. Interest rates in the U.K. were closer to five and us, they were closer to six. There were breakdowns by a slice of an interest rate, so there wasn't an interest of 5.1% or 5.2%. And for high risk transactions, you could easily get into the same interest rate realm that some of our usurious lenders do today. Yeah, you see situations where folks in dire straits would borrow for an interest rate of 5% a month. A lot of loans in those days were very, very short term. There were the land loans that were long term. Speaker 3 (00:21:28) - Most commercial banks made loans for 30 to 90 days, and they really were meant to bridge the period from when you, as a merchandiser bought your wholesale supplies to when you sold them as goods to the folks in your town. You could roll those loans over. But they were very short term back in those days. Speaker 1 (00:21:50) - That is interesting. Those are really short term loans. And this is pretty parallel with what I've read around that time, that interest rates seem to be about 5%, something like that. We're talking about the formation of this nation, its beginnings in land, in real estate, and how that intersects with banking and the mortgage market and really part of the manifest destiny in the westward expansion of the United States. Yes, we are talking about a popular four letter word debt, and that word debt has only become more popular in America with consumerism here in past decades. So when Richard and I come back, we're going to talk more about debt today in the United States. In his new book, The Paradox of Debt, you can get that at Paradox of Debt. Speaker 1 (00:22:35) - More we come back with Richard. I'm your host Keith Wayne hold you're listening to Get Rich Education. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They have provided our tribe with more loans than anyone there truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. Speaker 1 (00:23:48) - And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660. And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. This is author Jim Rickards. Speaker 4 (00:24:22) - Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold and Don't Quit Your Day Dream. Speaker 1 (00:24:37) - Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with the guest that served as the secretary of banking and securities for the great state of Pennsylvania since 2020. Today, he's the author of an interesting new book. It's titled The Paradox of Debt A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis. His name is Richard Vig. He's joining us from here in Pennsylvania, where we are together today. And Richard, I know that you have a lot of commentary about modern debt and what we can do about today's debt and how debt really seems to have expanded a lot since Nixon pegged us from the last vestige of the gold standard back in 1971. Speaker 1 (00:25:14) - I guess really the preeminent question, Richard, is should debt be a concern? We read all these stories about unrelatable numbers, about how the United States has $33 trillion of stated public debt. What's problematic? Speaker 3 (00:25:30) - There's a lot more private sector debt than public debt. And I think private sector debt is the area where we need to focus and where our concern needs to be. Private debt has increased since World War two from 35% of GDP to 160% of GDP. Wow. So it's almost quintupled. There's about $41 trillion worth of private sector debt. That's a bigger number than the government debt number, and that's globally as well. There's about a $150 trillion worth of private sector debt and only about $90 trillion worth of government debt. Speaker 1 (00:26:09) - And what is private sector debt? Are we talking about automobile loans, credit card loans, student loans? Speaker 3 (00:26:14) - It's roughly divided between business and household debt. So if we've got 40 trillion in debt, it's about 20 business and 20 households. And within both of those categories, the single biggest type of debt is real estate by far. Speaker 3 (00:26:31) - So within household debt, it's about 20 trillion. Almost 14 trillion of that is mortgage debt. On the business side, it's about 20 trillion. About 6 trillion of that is commercial real estate debt. So there's never been a time where real estate debt, household and commercial has not been really kind of the driving force of the economy. Speaker 1 (00:26:57) - You got public sector debt and you got private sector debt. And, you know, it's kind of funny, Richard, if someone asked me what the difference between those two is, there's a few different directions you could go. What I like to tell some people is, well, the government can just print dollars, okay? Everyday consumers in businesses, they don't have that handle. So the government can print dollars and they can call that whatever name they want to quantitative easing. Maybe they want to call it currency creation. But over here, if the individual tries to do something like that, it's called counterfeiting. So, yes, it can be more problematic. Individuals cannot print their own dollars at home. Speaker 3 (00:27:32) - That's exactly right. And that's why private debt is the area that we should focus more on. If you think about the great financial crisis of 2008, mortgage debt in 2002 was $5 trillion. By 2007, it was $10 trillion. It had doubled in less than five years. And we all now know that was millions of mortgages that it should never have been made. That was mortgages where the individuals had no income, no job, no assets. Those were homes that stood empty for years. And in many cases, they had to get torn down. Speaker 4 (00:28:10) - Yeah. Speaker 3 (00:28:11) - If you want to look out for trouble, the place to look is in the private sector debt. And the way to detect it is wherever it's growing very, very rapidly, that's where you're going to have a problem. Speaker 1 (00:28:23) - So that's therefore a way to help predict economic crises. It's debt growth or I guess you could really call it credit growth as well, right? I mean, both credit and debt are basically the same terms for the different side of a transaction wherever the growth in that is most rapid is really where the economic cracks are. Speaker 3 (00:28:43) - That's exactly right. And the fact that the Federal Reserve did not spot that in 2005 and six is one of the great stories of our time. They build economic models that don't even include debt as a factor whatsoever. Everybody finds that very surprising. It's called the DSG model, and it models the future of the economy without taking into consideration anything about debt. Speaker 1 (00:29:12) - Why is that excluded? Mean, I'm a bit taken aback by what you just told me. Think you can tell. Speaker 3 (00:29:18) - It's the fact. And economists got so theoretical going back a couple of decades that they started separating out financial economy from what they call the real economy. And they just stopped studying the financial economy as kind of a secondary matter to the real economy. The real economy would be, you know, the wheat and the automobile that gets manufactured and so forth and so on. My argument is those two things are inseparable. You shouldn't and cannot consider one without the other. And that's a huge blind spot in our Orthodox economics profession. Speaker 1 (00:30:01) - Tell us more about how what we've discussed ties in to the thesis of your book. Speaker 1 (00:30:06) - Richard The Paradox of Debt. What's the paradox? Speaker 3 (00:30:10) - Paradox is that debt creates wealth, but it also creates calamity. So, for example, in the pandemic, 20 through 22, government debt alone increased by $8 trillion. Household wealth increased by $30 trillion. So the money the government spends does not disappear. It actually goes into the checking accounts of households. So at the end of that three year period, households had 8 trillion more in deposits in their checking accounts. And the flood of new money had pushed up real estate and stock values. So cash in bank accounts increased by 8 trillion, and the value of real estate and stocks increased by 20 something trillion. So households were $30 trillion better off at the end of 22 than they had been at the end of 19. However, most of that, like 80% of that benefit, went to the top 10% of the population. And that's for the very simple reason that most assets, most stocks and real estate are held by the top 10%, like 65% of all the stock in real estate in the country is held by the top 10%. Speaker 3 (00:31:32) - The bottom 60%, six 0%, only hold about 14% of the stocks in real estate. So for real estate and stock values go up, it's the most well-to-do that get the benefit. Speaker 1 (00:31:47) - That's right. And it's really the listeners on this show that we want to help take from poor or middle class and help them understand something you said in just a couple of minutes ago, that debt creates wealth, which is a paradox to many. The title of your book is The Paradox of Debt. So here what we often do is get 75 to 80% loans on an income producing property where the rent income meets or exceeds all of the expenses. And this is creating wealth. How is that wealth generated debt? A 75 to 80% loan debt is leverage and leverage appreciation actually makes compound interest look pretty slow. So a very concrete example in a sense of the paradox of debt that we're using right here at Get Rich education. Richard. Speaker 3 (00:32:31) - You have described something that is not just true about real estate transactions, but it's true about the economy as a whole. Speaker 3 (00:32:40) - That's the essential analysis. Yeah. And to put some macro numbers on it, in 1980, total debt in the economy, government plus household was 125% of GDP. Today it's 260% of GDP. Yeah. Yeah. And that exact same time span, household wealth, net of debt went from 352% of GDP to 600% of GDP. Debt created. Well. Speaker 1 (00:33:12) - Yes, those are some astonishing figures. I guess as we're winding down here, Richard, one might wonder, well, where is the ceiling? When is the day of reckoning? When do we reach a calamity? How do we know that there's too much private debt and how does that actually look? Speaker 3 (00:33:29) - We have a chapter on that very subject in the book there. It's pretty easy to see that there's an end game on the private sector side. And right now we're at about 160% of GDP. We think that that's probably somewhere in the 225% of GDP range here in the United States when there's so much debt that the requirement to service that debt slows the economy down to near zero. Speaker 3 (00:34:00) - On the government debt, for the very reason you suggested that limitation doesn't really exist, the government could refinance its debt in perpetuity. As we said a moment ago, that ends up in the bank accounts of households anyway. So the thing I look to and I'm concerned about is private debt. Even though if you go flip on the cable news channels, you would think the world's about to end because of our government debt. Speaker 1 (00:34:26) - Now tell me, am I oversimplifying things here, at least with private debtors, everyday Americans, when an interest only payment on your debt exceeds your ability to service it each month? Is that the path to bankruptcy right there? Speaker 3 (00:34:42) - You got it. And whatever you say about an individual, you can say about the economy as a whole, because GDP is really just the sum of the individuals and businesses in the US. So if all the individuals and businesses are approaching this, the circumstance you just described, economy is not going to grow well there. Speaker 1 (00:35:03) - Any last things that you would like to tell us about you very well received book because again, it's called The Paradox of Debt in the subtitle is A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis. Speaker 3 (00:35:14) - We cover the same material for the other six largest countries in the world. So if you read the book, you're not just going to learn about the US, you're going to learn about China, Japan, Germany, France, England and India. And I think it gives you the kind of fulsome grounding you need to better understand the news stories that we get such a barrage of every day. Speaker 1 (00:35:38) - That's right. We need a frame of reference and putting our own more domestic debt into perspective here. Well, Richard, if someone wants to get a hold of the book, remind them of how they can best do that. Speaker 3 (00:35:49) - Thank you so much. Go to Paradox of Debt or go to Amazon or Barnes and Noble and just search for that and it'll be right there. Speaker 1 (00:35:58) - Oh, Richard, you've helped expand our debt mindset somewhat here on the show today. It's been great having you here. Speaker 3 (00:36:05) - It's been such a privilege. Thank you for having me. Speaker 1 (00:36:14) - A lot of interesting history with Richard Vig today, this great state of Pennsylvania's secretary of banking and securities. Speaker 1 (00:36:20) - One concept that really hasn't changed throughout history that we discussed there is that inflation mostly benefits those at the top. Again, check out Richard's book at Paradox of debt.com. But yes, real estate, it is still known as an inflation hedge. You still hear that term thrown around a lot but I really try to use a different term not hedge I don't like hedge. Okay. In the investing world, the word hedge means something that you do to offset risks. I don't like that word used with real estate. So therefore, the word hedge that really correlates with a defensive strategy. I mean, hedge, that's probably a better term for gold. Gold is a hedge against inflation. That makes sense to me. But where I draw the distinction is that investment property bought with a loan is not merely a hedge against inflation. That's why when I coined the real estate pays five ways back in 2015, the fifth benefit, it's not called inflation hedging. It is called inflation profiting. Now, if you're only looking at the overall capital price of your real estate, even your own home, well then it's dollar denominated price alone. Speaker 1 (00:37:42) - Well, that could be a hedge against inflation. But that's only the beginning, because when you get the fixed interest rate debt with it, now you're profiting because inflation debases your debt while the tenant makes all of the payments. And then as your rents rise with inflation, the reason that your monthly profit, your cash flow rises faster than inflation is, of course, due to the fact that your principal and interest payment stays fixed and feels really low over time. That's the inflation Triple Crown that I just described right there. And that's why when you buy investment property, REIT real estate is not just an inflation hedging vehicle, it is an inflation profiting vehicle. And today real estate isn't just scarce. It is still about 60% below the needed supply. And then amidst that, within that, single family homes are even more scarce. And then entry level homes that make the best rentals are even more scarce than that. But here on the show, we connect you with those builders and providers that are making the most in-demand properties available. Speaker 1 (00:38:59) - Oftentimes these single family homes that are entry level. So therefore, in this environment, if you can get a hold of those, you are going to own a scarce asset that everyone wants. That's what we help you do here. But mortgage rates have been a hindrance for adding investments. But with our referral network here, we have largely solved that problem for you. We have providers that offer 5.75% mortgage rates because they buy down your rate for you less. We're going to show you've heard how a Marketplace income property provider is offering an astounding 4.75% mortgage rate. And although it has some shortcomings, there are also 2.99% seller financed investment properties that you can tie up. Yes. Today. So profit from a scarce asset that everyone wants and benefits from higher inflation. And today it really tilts toward you, often giving more consideration to new build properties because builders, they're the ones that are aggressively buying down your rate for you today. And new builds also have lower insurance rates last year. To make it easier for you, we started our free investment coaching service so contact your investment coach to help get you started. Speaker 1 (00:40:19) - Some of our more popular markets lately are in Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, Georgia in summer. So whether you like to connect with the provider on your own, if that's what you like to do or if you don't, you can then just utilize our service free of charge investment coaching. You can do all of that at GREmarketplace.com thanks to Richard Vague today until next week I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream! Speaker 5 (00:40:57) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively. Speaker 1 (00:41:25) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.
In this Semmax Way podcast episode, host Matt Landon, CFP®, welcomes guest Jason Riley, a Navy veteran and Managing Partner at Fairway Asset Management. Jason delves into critical financial topics, including alternative investments, inflation, and the pandemic's economic impacts. Their conversation underscores the importance of diversification and offers insights into sidestepping potential challenges. Start your journey toward financial peace of mind today, at www.semmax.com. Learn more about Fairway Asset Management: https://fairwayassetmanagement.com Please note: Some investments discussed in this episode are categorized as Alternative Investments which are not suitable for all investors, and may only be available for accredited investors. All investment products and vehicles have risk. Returns are never guaranteed. Please consult with your adviser individually to help determine whether an alternative investment might be suitable to include in your overall plan.
Rob Carver is back this week speaking with Alan Dunne about constructing and assessing trend following and non-trend following trading strategies. We delve into mean reversion strategies and over what time frames they might be effective and what are the pitfalls in trying to combine trend following with mean reversion. We also discuss the theory and reality of the benefits of faster trend following, Rob's experience of this and his approach avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. We wrap up with some thoughts on AHL's Trend ETF and how a strategy trading 20 markets might perform versus a more diversified program. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to email@example.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:00 - Update on recent events?09:13 - Industry performance update09:38 - Why is it going so well for Rob?12:15 - The ongoing debate on term premia17:40 - Returns in bonds versus equities21:13 - Q1, Andrej: What's your take on systematic strategies complimenting trend?35:22 - Q2, Harry: Can you speak about the lure of high frequency strategies for traders with modest capital?40:46 - The challenges of fast trend following42:15 - Trading with different account sizes45:07 - Q3, Ravi: Techniques to prevent overfitting of a strategy51:45 - Using boot strapping52:42 - Q4.1, Tommy:...
World developments frequently impact financial markets and test the resolve of investors. The fear, panic, and uncertainty these events cause are exactly what creates the concept of a “risk premium.”The evidence is also very clear. Those who weather the storm have been rewarded over the long run. Consider the COVID outbreak, the Great Recession, and the Dot Com Bubble. These were all significant periods where markets moved, but the investors who didn't panic and stayed in the market were rewarded for their perseverance.Investing is not always going to be a smooth and comfortable ride, but the destination is worth it.Have questions for an upcoming episode? Want to get free resources, book giveaways, and AWM gear? Want to hear about when we release new episodes? Text “insights” or the lightbulb emoji (
Join us in this episode as we discuss the new Livewire + Volt Functional API stack for Breeze and its capabilities. We also demystify essential testing best practices to keep your code scandal-free and away from front-page mishaps. Uncover the art of crafting meaningful tests, evaluate the pros and cons of Pest vs. PHPUnit, venture into the realm of traits and inheritance, and determine the optimal number of tests for your project. Tune in for a jam-packed episode brimming with insights and strategies to elevate your testing game.• Taylor Otwell's Twitter - https://twitter.com/taylorotwell• Matt Stauffer's Twitter - https://twitter.com/stauffermatt• Laravel Twitter - https://twitter.com/laravelphp• Laravel Website - https://laravel.com/• Livewire Volt - https://livewire.laravel.com/docs/volt• Laravel Folio - https://laravel.com/docs/10.x/folio• PEST - https://pestphp.com/• Podcast: Pest, With Nuno Maduro: https://laravelpodcast.com/episodes/pest-with-nuno-maduro• PHPUnit - https://phpunit.de/• Inertia - https://inertiajs.com/• Tighten.co - https://tighten.com/• Docker - https://www.docker.com/company/• Vala's Pumpkin Patch - https://www.valaspumpkinpatch.com/----- Editing and transcription sponsored by Tighten.
Episode 282 - Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week's ZOZO Championship in Japan and the Estrella Damm Andalucia Masters in Spain. If you do not have a bet365 account, new customers, 18+ can access a Bet £10, get £30 in free bets offer. Use our bonus code SPORT30 when registering. Offers Terms: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad Claim Offer Here Listeners should visit Golf Betting System for the best golf betting tips coverage. Read our new best golf betting sites guide. Intro: 00:30; Listener Reviews: 01:41; Last Week: 03:00; bet365 ZOZO Championship Boosts + New Customer Promo: 11:04; ZOZO Championship Tips Chat: 14:15; Andalucia Masters Tips Chat: 38:41. Steve's ZOZO Championship Betting Preview: zozo betting tips Steve Presenting the ZOZO Championship Golf Betting Show: zozo championship tips zozo championship form stats Paul's Andalucia Masters Betting Preview: andalucia masters betting tips Predictor Models/Optimizers pga tour optimizer We have a new set of Golf Betting System bookmaker guides, highlighting current 2023 sports accounts. boylesports sign up offer betfred promo code betvictor bonus code ladbrokes sign up offer coral bonus code unibet sign up offer bet365 opening offer bet365 promo code 10bet new customer offer All offers are for new customers, 18+ Check out our new open championship free bets page Steve Bamford provides pga betting tips across the whole of 2023 Let us talk you through the bet365 each way extra explained X: Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf; Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf; Paul Williams @GolfBetting This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.
Multifamily real estate is a lot of work for active investors. You're going to be dealing with tenants, termites, and toilets. So, is the juice worth the squeeze? Are the returns worth all the hard work and effort?According to Tyler Cauble... it's not. Tyler runs a great YouTube channel (@TylerCauble), and he's doing some really interesting things over in Tennessee. But he says multifamily real estate is dead, and here's why:1) Too much competition.2) There aren't enough value-add deals to go around anymore. 3) Rates are high. 4) Returns aren't currently worth the risk. Is he wrong? Do we agree with him? Is multifamily real estate investing worth the squeeze? Grab a glass of lemonade and enjoy this week's episode of Multifamily Investing Made Simple. LEAVE A REVIEW if you liked this episode!! Keep up with the podcast! Follow us on Apple, Stitcher, Google, and other podcast streaming platforms. To learn more, visit us at https://invictusmultifamily.com/. **Want to learn more about investing with us?** We'd love to learn more about you and your investment goals. Please fill out this form and let's schedule a call: https://invictusmultifamily.com/contact/ **Let's Connect On Social Media!** LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/11681388/admin/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/InvictusMultifamily YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Lc0ctX
Stone Cold Steve Austin planted a Rattlesnake backstage and threw Triple H in the room with it on Monday Night Raw. Now, Triple H shows up on SmackDown! with a giant snake bite on his face. He tells everyone that wrestling has changed and it's not worth his life. Triple H is going to hand over the WWF Championship to Stone Cold and retire at the end of the night. Or is he brother… Also, Mick Foley convinced The Rock that Rock 'n' Sock Connection needed to have one final match before The Rock goes off on his big singles career. The Main Event is The Rock & Mankind vs The New Age Outlaws for the WWF Tag Team Titles. Chris Jericho fights Mr. Hughes, Jeff Jarrett gets ready for his “Good Housekeeping match” with Chyna, and the Terri Invitational Tournament continues with the Hardy Boyz vs Edge & Christian. Plus, the DEADLOCK Q&A Returns!⦁ Deadlock Discord: https://discord.gg/E4BvR4W⦁ Deadlock Shop: https://shop.deadlockpw.com⦁ Deadlock Patreon: https://patreon.com/deadlockpw⦁ Deadlock Twitter: https://twitter.com/deadlockpw⦁ Deadlock Instagram: https://instagram.com/deadlockwrestling⦁ Deadlock Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/deadlockpw⦁ Deadlock Pro Wrestling: http://deadlockpro.comThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5810608/advertisement
Armed with a completed second outline, we return for our 50th episode! This episode begins with a summary of the key changes planned for our second draft. In the next script, we'll be fully integrating voiceover from page 1 and streamlining the way we present lobbies and the exec. We'll also be revising Zoya's plotline […]
Episode 281 - Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week's Shriners Children's Open in Las Vegas and the Open de Espana in Madrid. If you do not have a bet365 account, new customers, 18+ can access a Bet £10, get £30 in free bets offer. Use our bonus code SPORT30 when registering. Offers Terms: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad Claim Offer Here Listeners should visit Golf Betting System for the best golf betting tips coverage. Read our new best golf betting sites guide. Intro: 00:30; Listener Reviews: 01:55; Last Week: 04:02; bet365 Shriners Children's Open Boosts + New Customer Promo: 12:33; Shriners Open Tips Chat: 14:30; Open de Espana Tips Chat: 47:10. Steve's Shriners Open Betting Preview: shriners open betting tips Steve Presenting the Shriners Open Betting Show: shriners open betting tips shriners open strokes gained rankings shriners open form stats Paul's Open de Espana betting Preview: open de espana betting tips open de espana strokes gained rankings open de espana form stats Predictor Models/Optimizers pga tour optimizer We have a new set of Golf Betting System bookmaker guides, highlighting current 2023 sports accounts. boylesports sign up offer betfred promo code betvictor bonus code ladbrokes sign up offer coral bonus code unibet sign up offer bet365 opening offer bet365 promo code uk 10bet new customer offer All offers are for new customers, 18+ Check out our new open championship free bets page Steve Bamford provides pga tour betting tips across the whole of 2023 Let us talk you through the bet365 each way extra explained X: Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf; Barry O'Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf; Paul Williams @GolfBetting This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.
This week on The Game Marks Podcast, we are playing 80's Mania Wrestling Returns for the IOS and Android. How will this game hold up? Will we play it forever, or Future Endeavor? We also discuss streaming, The Legend of Curry Man vs. The UFO's and more.Please subscribe and leave a 5-star review for this podcast on Apple Podcast and Spotify and follow us on all forms of social media @gamemarkspod.Join George Feis & Johnny Clash each week as they do a #DeepDive into the good, the bad & the awesome of wrestling video games. Do your favorite games stand the test of time or are you playing them with nostalgia goggles? New episodes every Monday! Follow along @GameMarksPod.Join our Patreon for Ad Free Episodes, Softlock questions, Q&A and Discord access patreon.com/gamemarkspod SponsorsDubby Energy: dubby.gg Use code gamemarkspod for 10% offNord VPN: gamemarkspod.com/vpnMerch: gamemarkspodcast.bigcartel.comPro Wrestling Tees: prowrestlingtees.com/gamemarkspodTee Public: teepublic.com/user/gamemarkspod
This week on the Million Dollar Mastermind podcast, host Larry Weidel is joined by Shawn Moore, CEO and Founder of Vodyssey, a leading platform specializing in short-term rental property investing. From helping an investor couple earn $5,600 in 90 days to another couple who made $ 750K in annual profit in two years, Vodyssey has the secret sauce to fulfill your lifestyle dreams and financial freedom.