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Join our hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle as they guide you through the world of economics, politics and markets. Each week expert guests are invited to discuss the latest events impacting the macro environment and what this means for investors. Get in touch - macrobytes@abrdn.com

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    • May 29, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
    • every other week NEW EPISODES
    • 29m AVG DURATION
    • 134 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from Macro Bytes

    Has Javier Milei's shock therapy worked for Argentina?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2025 22:06 Transcription Available


    The Argentinian economy has a history going back decades of chronically low growth, high inflation, and successive crises. However, President Javier Milei's “shock therapy” of fiscal spending cuts, peso devaluation, and an IMF package, appear to be turning things around. The economy has returned to growth; inflation, while still high, has fallen sharply; and Argentina is gradually returning to international capital markets. Paul and Luke speak to Tettey Addy, emerging market analyst at Aberdeen, about Milei's unexpected successes with economic orthodoxy, and the challenges that still lie ahead.

    So was the trade war all just a fever dream?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2025 32:04 Transcription Available


    The US and China have significantly, albeit temporarily, reduced tariff rates. And the US has started to make tariff deals with other countries too, beginning with the UK. So does this mean that economic and market concerns about the trade war were overblown? Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Bob Gilhooly about why US-China decoupling is still a long term trend, what next for tariff levels, and how much progress the US administration is making on its other priorities including tax cuts. 

    The end of US exceptionalism?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 30:43 Transcription Available


    The US has long been economically “exceptional”, with its high growth rate, dominant technology companies, and as the provider of the global safe asset and reserve currency.  However, Trump's tariffs, a possible growth slowdown, and deeper institutional disfunction, could all endanger aspects of this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether US exceptionalism is over, whether the US is becoming a structurally less attractive destination for capital, and if the global dollar standard is over. 

    How high could tariffs go?

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2025 28:14


    President Trump has announced an enormous increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. But is this a negotiating tactic that will see tariffs fall over time, or a permanent feature of the new global trading system? And given that most investors' worst case tariff scenario has transpired, what other major shocks could these moves catalyse? Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the design of the reciprocal tariff regime, the possible economic impact on the US, and how things might get better – or worse. 

    UK fiscal policy back to black, for now

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2025 17:09 Transcription Available


    UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced spending cuts to restore headroom against the government's fiscal rules. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the welfare cuts the government has announced, how vulnerable the UK fiscal position is to tariffs and other shocks, and the possibility of future tax increases.

    Is the US economy heading for a Trumpcession?

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2025 32:24


    US consumer and business sentiment has fallen significantly recently in response to extremely elevated policy uncertainty with some indicators pointing to elevated recession risks. Luke Bartholomew speaks to James McCann about the sudden deterioration in economic sentiment and how reliable this is as guide to future growth, the current state of play on tariff policy, the impact of DOGE on the job market, and how interest rates might revolve in response to the various shocks hitting the economy. 

    Can Friedrich Merz solve Germany's problems?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2025 25:41


    The CDU-CSU has emerged as the largest party from the German federal elections, and Friedrich Merz will almost certainly become the next Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. But Germany faces profound economic and geopolitical headwinds, amid a contracting industrial sector and a chaotic European security situation. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about Merz's economic agenda, whether debt brake reform is possible, and if this is the last-chance saloon for the German mainstream. 

    Five years on, is Brexit finally paying off?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2025 22:59


    Much like the effects of the French revolution, it may be too early to tell the long-term economic impacts of Brexit. UK growth and investment have almost certainly been lower, and inflation higher, than otherwise. But as President Trump threatens to tear up the global trading system including targeting the EU with tariffs, and European regulation risks stifling the growth benefits of AI, Paul and Luke discuss how the lasting economic consequences of Brexit are still playing out. 

    Tariff man strikes back, or the phantom trade war?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2025 35:04


    Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash, after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the implementation of additional 10% tariffs on China. Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Bob Gilhooly, and Lizzy Galbraith from the abrdn economics team about the thinking behind President Trump's tariff strategy, the economic and monetary policy impacts, and what this all tells us about Trump's broader agenda.

    Could Trump devalue the dollar with a “Mar-a-Lago Accord”?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 30, 2025 28:11


     The US dollar is rising as investors price in Trump's policy platform of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation. But key members of the new US administration want to see a weaker dollar to boost domestic manufacturing. Paul and Luke discuss this fundamental dilemma at the heart of the new administration's economic policy, and how the US may exercise its full array of hard power tools to achieve economic, political, and territorial objectives. 

    DOGE: more bark than bite?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2025 27:45 Transcription Available


    Elon Musk is set to join the Trump administration as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith about the role and influence that Musk and DOGE may have over US fiscal policy, regulation, foreign policy, and the broader Trump agenda.

    What does 2025 hold for macro and markets?

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2024 24:13 Transcription Available


     The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the abrdn economic research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2025 – including President-elect Trump's policy choices, the prospect of ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East, and whether the UK Chancellor will be back with more tax increases.

    Will the bond vigilantes return?

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2024 30:41


    We need to talk about debt. Global government debt is approaching 100% of global GDP. And the incoming Trump administration may be about to increase the large US fiscal deficit still further. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss whether the infamous bond vigilantes will return, pushing up government borrowing costs amid fears of debt sustainability.

    What does Trump mean for the economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2024 23:02 Transcription Available


    A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the likely tax cuts and spending measures that Trump may pursue, the prospect of a global trade war, and what all this means for monetary policy and financial markets. 

    A budget for growth, or for higher gilt yields?

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2024 23:27 Transcription Available


    Labour's first budget was a big one – new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the measures, and assess what they mean for the UK's economic, political and market outlook.  

    Has China fired its stimulus bazooka?

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2024 22:51 Transcription Available


    After months of piecemeal economic policy support, Chinese stimulus has stepped up significantly and equity markets have surged higher. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly about the headwinds the Chinese economy has been facing, the risks of China slipping into ‘Japanification', and whether recent measures represent a turning point in monetary and fiscal policy support.

    Retail investors are upbeat despite the risks - with Carl Hazley

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2024 25:23 Transcription Available


    Markets are facing an array of potential risks - from the imminent US election, narrow leadership in equity markets, and spiking tensions in the Middle East. Paul and Luke speak to Carl Hazley from Finimize about how retail investors are navigating the economic and market landscape, and how financial institutions can support this increasingly sophisticated group of investors. 

    How to fund our future infrastructure needs - with Bridget Rosewell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2024 31:12 Transcription Available


    Economies are built on infrastructure. But stretched public finances mean the state is increasingly looking to the private sector to help fund infrastructure. Climate change, technological progress, and geopolitics are changing the sort of infrastructure we need. And building physical infrastructure can be fraught with hurdles from the planning process. On this episode, Paul Diggle speaks with Bridget Rosewell, board member of the UK Infrastructure Bank and former Commissioner of the National Infrastructure Commission, about the economics of infrastructure.

    How painful will the UK Budget be?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2024 25:37 Transcription Available


    UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget on 30 October. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether Labour have been talking the UK economy down as the government manages expectations ahead of potential tax increases, and whether markets should be concerned about possible accounting changes to the way Bank of England losses are treated in the public finances. 

    Is the Fed behind the curve? Is the Bank of Japan dangerously ahead of the curve?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2024 33:11 Transcription Available


    A weak US jobs report reignited concerns about a US recession, and a surprisingly large Bank of Japan rate hike causes a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade. Together, these sent shockwaves through financial markets. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to James McCann and Sree Kochugovindan about whether “this time is different” for US recession indicators, what the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida means for the Bank of Japan, and the outlook for US and Japanese monetary policy. 

    How do macro themes drive equity markets?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2024 28:50


    We frequently discuss globalisation, political volatility, geo-political competition, and technological change on this podcast. But how can investors play these trends? Paul Diggle talks to Blair Couper and Jamie Mills-O'Brien, equity fund managers at abrdn, about thematic investing.

    Is the UK now an island of political stability?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2024 28:00 Transcription Available


    The UK general election delivered a large Labour majority, while the French second round vote has resulted in a fragmented parliament and in the US, President Biden's grip on the Democratic nomination may be slipping. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss what these political developments mean for investors, including whether Labour can boost UK growth, the structural challenges facing France, and what a Trump presidency might mean for markets. 

    Is France now a member of the Euro periphery?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2024 33:04


    France is heading to the polls in snap election, and markets are concerned about a potential large fiscal expansion. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about why Macron's gamble doesn't seem to be paying off, the chances that the next government enacts a large fiscal expansion, questions of France's membership in the Eurozone, and whether comparisons with the UK's “Liz Truss moment” are appropriate.

    Why are Chinese electric vehicles disrupting the global economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2024 31:07 Transcription Available


    China has become a global EV superpower in very short order, with major macroeconomic repercussions. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Robert Gilhooly about how China overtook the US as the world's pre-eminent manufacturer of electric vehicles, the ways in which this is changing the course of the Chinese economy, and why this is amplifying trade tensions with the US and Europe.

    What would a Labour government mean for the UK economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2024 30:09 Transcription Available


    The snap UK general election on July 4th is very likely to result in a Labour government. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith about what this might mean for the economy – from fiscal policy and planning reform, to green industrial policy and the approach to the EU. 

    America's dollar, the world's problem?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2024 24:13 Transcription Available


    The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global spillovers. Paul and Luke discuss why the dollar has been appreciating recently, why this matters, how the dollar became so important, the benefits and drawbacks this brings to the US, and why a potential second Trump presidency could drop the US's long standing commitment to a strong dollar.  

    Is globalisation going into reverse, or just changing?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2024 33:29 Transcription Available


    The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still powering on. Nevertheless, even these aspects of globalisation are facing an increasingly hostile political and policy environment, including a potential Trump Presidency and ongoing US-China tensions. Paul Diggle speaks to James McCann about the nature of “globalisation 3.0”, and what it means for the economic outlook and financial markets. 

    How should investors navigate economic and political uncertainty?

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 18, 2024 25:46 Transcription Available


    The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of the Bank of England's forecasting process, which includes a recommendation to make greater use of scenarios.

    Will the Bank of Japan hike interest rates again before the Federal Reserve cuts?

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2024 34:46


    The Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching rate cuts, but an economic “no landing” could delay this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Sree Kochugovindan and James McCann about the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and the US.

    Are we in a more volatile world for inflation?

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2024 24:26


    The ‘great inflation' saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently, inflation volatility has remained elevated. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss why structural changes in the global economy, stalling globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate change may all mean that higher inflation volatility is here to stay – and why this would have significant implications for financial markets and portfolio diversification. 

    Will China hit its new growth target?

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2024 27:23 Transcription Available


    China has just announced a GDP target of “around 5%” for 2024. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging market economist at abrdn, about the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese economy. 

    Will the last mile of inflation be the hardest?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 22, 2024 33:24


    US inflation picked up in January, and there are lingering concerns that the “last mile” of bringing inflation back to target will be the most difficult.Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to James McCann about the drivers of US inflation, the positive supply-side shocks that made the initial decline in inflation so rapid, the 1970s experience that might be weighing on policymakers, and whether the US is at risk of a fiscal crisis.

    What's been holding the German economy back?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 9, 2024 23:47


    The Eurozone economy is stagnating and the German economy in particular is facing significant cyclical and structural headwinds. We discuss why.

    What's at stake in 2024's many elections?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 26, 2024 22:28 Transcription Available


    A majority of the global population are heading to the polls this year, bookended by Taiwan just gone and the US in November. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, to discuss what is at stake for economies and markets. Overarching all these elections are unifying themes of political polarisation, geopolitical uncertainty, and the changing nature of globalisation.

    Is India the next Asian tiger?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 11, 2024 28:01 Transcription Available


    India was the fastest-growing major economy last year, and overhauled China as the most populous country. Paul and Luke discuss prospects for the Indian economy with Michael Langham, Emerging Markets Analyst at abrdn. They talk about India's demographic tailwinds, its infrastructure needs, whether India can be a ‘friendshoring' winner, and what a third Modi term could have in store. 

    Macro questions for 2024

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2023 22:40 Transcription Available


    abrdn's economics team ask and answer the crucial economic, political and market questions investors have for 2024. These include the path of inflation, the outlook for US, China and Eurozone growth, the likely pace of interest rate cuts, the impact of a possible Trump presidency, and the potential for AI to drive a productivity boom 

    Is Japan leaving behind the lost decades?

    Play Episode Play 60 sec Highlight Listen Later Nov 29, 2023 24:44


    Paul and Luke talk to Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Economist at abrdn, about the return of inflation to Japan, and the outlook for Bank of Japan monetary policy as a response. Negative interest rates and yield curve control could end in 2024, if wage growth and inflation expectations continue moving higher. 

    How could conflict in the Middle East affect the global economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2023 26:34 Transcription Available


    Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, political economist, to discuss the transmission channels from the conflict between Israel and Hamas into the global economy. They focus on geopolitical risk premia, energy markets, and the potential global inflation and central bank consequences of severe escalation scenarios. 

    Why are bond yields rising?

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2023 26:45 Transcription Available


    Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the significant rise in global bond yields. They discuss what has driven this increase, and in particular the importance of rising term premia for the economy and monetary policy.

    How is AI going to change the economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2023 25:20 Transcription Available


    Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the many potential economic impacts of Artificial Intelligence, including on productivity growth, the labour market, sectoral winners and losers, regulation, and global geopolitics. 

    Why are emerging markets cutting interest rates?

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2023 27:35


    Inflation is falling in many EM economies, which is allowing some to cut interest rates well ahead of the US Fed. However, the recent move higher in oil prices, and the impact of El Nino weather patterns on food prices, could derail this improving picture. Paul speaks to Bob Gilhooly, senior EM economist, and Michael Langham, EM analyst, about the economic outlook across the emerging markets. 

    Are we in a world of permanently higher interest rates?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2023 38:45 Transcription Available


    Luke talks to Lukasz Rachel, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCL, and Bob Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the long term drivers of interest rates. They discuss the causes of the secular decline in interest rates before the pandemic, whether economic changes wrought by the pandemic will reverse this trend, and the impact of demographics, (de)globalisation and AI.  

    Is the Fed pulling off a soft landing?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2023 23:07 Transcription Available


     Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy. They debate whether the run of strong activity data but moderating inflation means a US soft landing is now more likely than a recession. 

    What did the Bank of England get wrong? - with Michael Saunders

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2023 29:05 Transcription Available


    Paul and Luke speak to Michael Saunders, former external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, about the UK economy and the Bank's track record. 

    Is the UK “stagflation nation”?

    Play Episode Play 46 sec Highlight Listen Later Aug 10, 2023 25:57 Transcription Available


    Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the UK economy. They discuss recent trends in growth and inflation, how the UK stands against international peers, the political implications of a possible recession, and the fraying of the “green consensus”.

    Restarting the intangible economy – with Professor Jonathan Haskel

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 30, 2023 36:09 Transcription Available


    Paul talks to Professor Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and co-author of ‘Restarting the Future: How to fix the intangible economy', and Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the intangible economy. The economy increasingly consists of ideas, brands, and relationships. This shift from “stuff” to intangibles has wide-ranging implications for productivity, competition, inequality, and how policymakers should manage the modern economy.

    Chip Wars - The geopolitics of microchips - with Chris Miller

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2023 22:53 Transcription Available


    Luke and Paul talk to Chris Miller, academic, historian and author of Chip Wars: The fight for the world's most critical technology, about the economic and geopolitical importance of semiconductors. They discuss the technological and supply chain marvel that is the modern microchip, whether the US-China-Taiwan chip nexus is politically stabilising or destabilising, the impact of the CHIPS Act, and AI innovation as a driver of market performance and future great power competition.

    Is China's recovery stalling? – with Jon Anderson

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2023 27:27 Transcription Available


    As China's re-opening rebound fades, Paul and Luke talk to Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group and Robert Gilhooly of abrdn about the Chinese economy. The discuss the prospects for policy easing, the state of local government finances, and internationalisation of the renminbi.

    How will the debt ceiling be resolved?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2023 31:23 Transcription Available


    The US is facing another debt ceiling stand-off, with very high stakes for the economy and markets. Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, and Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, about the current impasse and how it could be resolved. They discuss the history of the debt ceiling, the likely shape of a deal, the impact of possible spending cuts on the US economy, and the worst-case scenario of a US debt default.

    Why Asia is winning the race for global growth

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 22:55 Transcription Available


    Luke and Paul talk to Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the drivers of global growth out to 2050. They discuss demographics, and why it is not always destiny, migration, urbanisation, the risks of the middle-income trap, and Asia's growing share of the global economic pie. 

    How close is the US to recession?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2023 19:07


    Luke talks to Abigail Watt, economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy and policy. They discuss what recent data resilience says about the likelihood of a recession, the ongoing turmoil of the US banking sector, and whether a near term resolution to the current debt ceiling impasse is on the cards.

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