Podcasts about Capital Economics

China y Estados Unidos iniciaron este miércoles 14 de mayo una tregua comercial de tres meses, en la que se acordó que rebajarán en 115 puntos porcentuales los aranceles cruzados de las últimas semanas. La escalada arancelaria se produjo en medio de las presiones de Donald Trump y las medidas recíprocas tomadas por Xi Jinping. Con esta tregua, ¿quién pierde el pulso? Beijing y Washington anunciaron un acuerdo para rebajar mutuamente los aranceles impuestos en las últimas semanas.De esa forma, y por 90 días, China reducirá del 125% al 10% los aranceles sobre productos estadounidenses; mientras que EE. UU. los bajará del 145% al 30% para los bienes chinos.El pacto, que da un respiro al comercio global y las economías de las dos potencias, tiene lugar en medio de una guerra arancelaria emprendida por Donald Trump.Aunque, tradicionalmente, el tema comercial ha servido como principal factor disuasorio para evitar otros conflictos entre estos dos grandes rivales, la escalada de las últimas semanas ha disparado el nerviosismo de los mercados y presionado al comercio global. Aunque la reacción de Beijing ha sido discreta, analistas consideran que la economía china ha sacado ventaja de la guerra arancelaria."La retirada de aranceles supone una clara reivindicación de la postura calculada y proporcionada de Beijing a la hora de responder a las acciones comerciales de la Administración Trump", según un informe de la firma de análisis Trivium China.En contraste, según el economista jefe para Asia de la consultora británica Capital Economics, Mark Williams, la tregua “es otro paso atrás en la postura agresiva de la Administración Trump”, especialmente porque el Gobierno de Xi se ha mantenido firme, sin ceder a las demandas de Washington. Leer tambiénTregua comercial entre China y EE. UU. impulsa al yuan y mercados, pero persiste cautela entre inversores La gran pregunta es qué hay detrás del acuerdo para reducir los aranceles.¿Por qué la Casa Blanca ablandó su discurso? ¿Qué tanto aprovechó China para redoblar sus vínculos comerciales con otros países? Para analizar el tema, participan en El Debate dos invitados.- Desde Santiago, Andrés Bórquez, investigador de El Núcleo Milenio sobre Impactos de China en América Latina.- En Lima, Carlos Aquino, director del Centro de Estudios Asiáticos y docente de Economía Asiática en la Universidad Nacional San Marcos.

Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to assess whether there has been a fundamental improvement in the outlook, or if this is a case of investors smoking too much “hopium”. In a wide ranging chat, they discuss:What the latest economic data suggest about the impact of higher tariffs;The chances that the US and China engage enough to get a deal done;Whether King Dollar could be overthrown – and the risks of a dollar crash. Events and analysis referenced in this episodeRecording: Is the dollar's global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-dollars-global-dominance-casualty-tariff-chaosANZ Drop-In: Australia's election, RBA easing and the economic outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/anz-drop-australias-election-rba-easing-and-economic-outlookDrop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump's second term so farhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-100-days-economic-impact-trumps-second-term-so-far

Kenya's president on a five-day state visit to China, its largest lender, while Beijing's trade war with Washington intensifies. How is it worsening? And what's the impact on countries like Kenya, which do business with both economic superpowers? In this episode: Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow, Taihe Institute. Robert Scott, Independent International Economist. David Omojomolo, Emerging Market Economist, Africa, Capital Economics. Host: Folly Bah Thibault Connect with us:@AJEPodcasts on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook

Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump's chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including:What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” endsWhy we think US growth risks have risen but we still don't expect a recession How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflationWhat curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty If there's a US-China trade deal to be doneAnalysis referenced in this episode:Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhereRead: Is China offloading its dollar assets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assetsData: Tariff Impact Model (TIM)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threathttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threatRead: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025

As the dust settles after another of week of dramatic policy shifts, the picture that has emerged is a familiar one from Trump's first term: China is the main target after all. China isn't taking Trump's tariffs lying down. Instead, it has hit back tariff for tariff so that both sides are now applying tariffs to each others' goods of well above 100%. In this week's episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing asks Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, why China is adopting a more combative approach to Donald Trump than other countries and what that suggests about the future of the relationship. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown offers some scenarios for what might happen next with tariffs and their impact on growth across the global economy. And the team cast their eyes further ahead to discuss whether the tumult of the last couple of weeks may end up accelerating the fracturing of the global economy into US and China-aligned blocs or instead drive more former US allies closer to China.  Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: Mapping out trade war scenariosMapping out trade war scenarios | Capital EconomicsRead: China and US still in an escalatory loopChina and US still in an escalatory loop | Capital EconomicsMeet: TIM - the Capital Economics Tariff Impact Model Tariff Impact Model | Capital EconomicsWatch: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effectsDrop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects | Capital Economics

« Chiến đấu đến cùng » khi bị tấn công, « đáp trả tương xứng thuế đối ứng » của Mỹ và áp dụng đúng phương pháp của Washington để bảo vệ quyền lợi : Trung Quốc đã chọn giải pháp đối đầu trong cuộc chiến thuế quan với chính quyền Trump. Trong chưa đầy một tuần lễ, Trung Quốc chuyển từ « thế thủ » sang « thế công ». Trên nguyên tắc, kể từ 0 giờ ngày 10/04/2025 hàng Mỹ nhập khẩu vào Hoa Lục bị đánh thuế 34 % « tương tự » như hàng « made in China » bán sang Hoa Kỳ.Chỉ 48 giờ sau màn trình diễn của Donald Trump ở Nhà Trắng, mở màn một cuộc chiến thương mại với toàn cầu, tại Bắc Kinh bộ Thương Mại « đáp lễ » bằng hàng rào quan thuế. Trung Quốc cho mở điều tra nhắm vào hơn một chục doanh nghiệp Mỹ và hạn chế xuất khẩu 7 kim loại hiếm thiết yếu cho công nghệ cao và thiết bị điện tử trong dự án sản xuất chiến đấu cơ đời mới F-47 vừa được Washington rầm rộ loan báo.Sau một dịp nghỉ cuối tuần dài ngày, quay lại thủ đô Washington tổng thống Hoa Kỳ nổi đóa thấy Bắc Kinh chọn giải pháp đối đầu. Donald Trump chỉ trích Trung Quốc đi « nhầm đường » và đòi tăng thêm 50 % thuế hải quan nhắm vào hàng « made in China », bên cạnh mức thuế 54 % sắp bị áp dụng từ 0 giờ ngày 09/04, theo giờ của Washington. Lập tức Bắc Kinh khẳng định « trong tư thế sẵn sàng, quyết đấu đến cùng ».Trung Quốc « de-risking » với Mỹ Cơ quan tư vấn Capital Economics, trụ sở tại Luân Đôn đánh giá, lãnh đạo Trung Quốc nhận thấy rằng « kinh tế nước này đủ vững chắc để cưỡng lại mọi thủ đoạn của Donald Trump ».Bên cạnh những lập luận mang tính tuyên truyền, giới tài chính đồng loạt cho rằng, « Trung Quốc đã rút kinh nghiệm từ cuộc chiến thương mại lần trước với chính quyền Trump và có những bước chuẩn bị kỹ hơn ».Kế hoạch Made in China 2025 của chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình đã đem lại những kết quả cụ thể : Trung Quốc dẫn đầu một số lĩnh vực công nghệ mới, không chỉ là « công xưởng sản xuất hàng rẻ » mà đã trực tiếp cạnh tranh với các đối thủ ở Hoa Kỳ từ ô tô điện đến trí tuệ nhân tạo. Công cụ thông minh DeepSeek made in China đã khiến thế giới công nghệ ở Thung Lũng Silicon choáng váng.Trong lĩnh vực vệ tinh không gian, tháng 11/2024 Brazil đã ký hợp đồng với Qiafan, một công ty khởi nghiệp « vô danh » lấn sân của Elon Musk cung cấp các dịch vụ vệ tinh  Về công nghệ bán dẫn, Trung Quốc cũng không còn hoàn toàn lệ thuộc vào các nhà cung cấp phương Tây. Trong số các nhà sản xuất máy bay dân sự, Airbus của châu Âu và Boeing của Mỹ không còn trong thế độc quyền từ khi dòng Comac C919 của Trung Quốc bắt đầu xuất hiện… Một điểm khác nữa cho phép ông Tập Cận Bình tự tin lao vào cuộc đọ sức với Washington : Nhà cung cấp thiết bị viễn thông Hoa Vi vẫn tồn tại và thịnh vượng đó là trước các đòn trừng phạt liên tiếp của hai đời tổng thống Mỹ, Donald Trump và Joe Biden.Thị phần của Mỹ với Trung Quốc bị thu hẹpĐành rằng Trung Quốc vẫn là đối tác thương mại quan trọng thứ ba của Hoa Kỳ sau Mêhicô và Canada, nhưng nếu như hồi 2017, hơn 20 % kim ngạch xuất khẩu của Trung Quốc đổ về Mỹ, nay tỷ lệ  đó rơi xuống còn chưa đầy 15 % theo các số liệu của Hải Quan Trung Quốc được tuần báo Anh The Economist trích dẫn. Nói cách khác về xuất nhập khẩu Trung Quốc ít lệ thuộc hơn vào Mỹ so với 8 năm về trước.Báo Nhật Nikkei Asia trích lời bà Vương Đan, giám đốc công ty tư vấn Eurasia Group trụ sở tại Singapour, hồi 2017 « tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu của Trung Quốc sang Hoa Kỳ chiếm khoảng 4 % GDP, nay tỷ lệ này chỉ còn là 3 % ».  Ngoài ra, để tiếp tục thâm nhập thị trường Mỹ, Bắc Kinh đã khai thác chiến lược « Trung Quốc +1 » qua một sô trung gian như Ấn Độ, hay Việt Nam và nhất là Mêhicô... Trong các khoản giao dịch hàng hóa Mỹ-Trung, cho đến hiện tại, Trung Quốc chủ yếu mua vào nông phẩm và năng lượng của Hoa Kỳ. Trước mắt, về dầu khí Bắc Kinh có thể trông cậy vào Nga. Về nông phẩm, ngũ cốc, Brazil và Achentina đã thu hẹp thị phần của các nông gia Hoa Kỳ, những thành phần cử tri ủng hộ Donald Trump.Đất hiếm, tiền tệ, công cụ pháp lý : những loại vũ khí trong tay Trung Quốc Kinh nghiệm từ « cuộc thương chiến lần thứ nhất » cũng do chính quyền Trump khởi động hồi 2018-2019 Trung Quốc đã tăng tốc chiến lược « tách rời khỏi » Hoa Kỳ cả về công nghệ lẫn thương mại. Và đó cũng là điểm khởi đầu cho phép nền kinh tế thứ hai toàn cầu không hề mặc cảm khi phải đương đầu với siêu cường số 1 thế giới. Do vậy Trung Quốc chuyển từ thế « thủ » sang thế tấn công ».Mỹ phụ thuộc vào đất hiếm để sản xuất các vật dụng kết nối, điện ô tô điện, vũ khí, vệ tinh... Do vậy, trong số các đòn đáp trả Donald Trump « Giải Phóng » Hoa Kỳ, Bắc Kinh đã loan báo thông báo « hạn chế » xuất khẩu 7 kim loại hiếm sang Mỹ.Một công cụ khác trong tay Bắc Kinh là phá giá đồng tiền quốc gia để hàng Trung Quốc xuất khẩu sang Mỹ vẫn hấp dẫn. Ngân Hàng Trung Ương đang hướng tới giải pháp này.Thế rồi Trung Quốc cũng dùng lá bài « an ninh quốc gia » để điều tra các tập đoàn Mỹ xuất khẩu một số mặt hàng « lưỡng dụng » sang Hoa Lục, cũng khai thác công cụ pháp lý « chống cạnh tranh bất bình đẳng » để trừng phạt các doanh nghiệp của Hoa Kỳ. Điều đó không cấm cản các giới chức Bắc Kinh vẫn khẳng định Trung Quốc là một « mảnh đất màu mỡ cho các nhà đầu tư quốc tế »Chiến tranh tâm lý Vào lúc tại Hoa Kỳ, giới đầu tư « nhốn nháo » vì chính sách thuế quan của Donald Trump, nhiều nhà tỷ phú hàng đầu (Bill Ackmann, Larry Fink ..), những người từng ủng hộ ông Trump trong cuộc tranh cử tổng thống 2024 kêu gọi Washington « dừng tay » thì thứ trưởng Thương Mại Trung Quốc tiếp đại diện nhiều tập đoàn Mỹ như của hãng xe Tesla hay tập đoàn bảo hiểm GE Healthcare…Ông Lăng Kích (Ling Jie) đưa ra thông điệp : Trung Quốc là « điểm đầu tư lý tưởng, an toàn và đầy hứa hẹn  với các tập đoàn nước ngoài, với các doanh nghiệp của Mỹ ». So với thời điểm hôm 20/01/2025, ngày ông tổng thống Trump nhậm chức, 180 tỷ đô la tài sản của ba doanh nhân Mỹ giàu nhất hành tinh đã tan thành mây khói. Cổ phiếu của tập đoàn Apple mất giá trong nhiều phiên giao dịch liên tiếp từ khi Nhà Trắng loan báo áp thuế 34 % hàng từ Trung Quốc nhập khẩu sang Hoa Kỳ, do 85 % các sản phẩm mang nhãn hiệu quả táo do nhân công Trung Quốc tạo ra để cung phục vụ các khách hàng Mỹ. Cũng chính vì biện pháp thuế sắp tới của tổng thống Trump mà dân Mỹ đua nhau sắm điện thoại thông minh trước khi giá mỗi chiếc iPhone trên thị trường đắt thêm từ 200 đến 300 đô la.Vỏ quýt dầy, móng tay nhọn Song bên cạnh những tuyên bố mạnh mẽ cả từ phía Bắc Kinh lẫn Washington, thực tế không thể chối cãi là tổng thống Mỹ đã mở một cuộc thương chiến với toàn cầu Trung Quốc là mục tiêu chính bị nhắm tới. Thiệt hại đầu tiên hết và nghiêm trọng nhất đè nặng lên hai nước liên quan. Nhà Trung Quốc học Valérie Niquet, thuộc Quỹ Nghiên Cứu Chiến Lược của Pháp nhấn mạnh đến điểm kẹt của Bắc Kinh trong cuộc đọ sức này :« Từ lâu nay ai cũng biết Trung Quốc bị thiệt hai nhiều trong cuộc đọ sức với Hoa Kỳ. Tập Cận Bình và những người tiền nhiệm đã đề ra mục tiêu điều chỉnh lại và lấy lại cân bằng trong mô hình phát triển, để cỗ máy sản xuất ít ngốn năng lượng hơn, để tiêu thụ nội địa là lực đẩy cho tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc. Nhưng từ đó đến nay, Bắc Kinh vẫn chưa thực hiện được mục tiêu này. Trung Quốc kỳ vọng bơt bị phụ thuộc vào xuất khẩu nhưng cho đến hiện tại thì xuất khẩu vẫn là đầu tàu kinh tế và Trung Quốc phụ thuộc nhiều hơn vào các thị trường nước ngoài, nhất là hai thị trường phát triển nhất là Mỹ và châu Âu. Nếu Hoa Kỳ đóng cửa thị trường, thì tác động đầu tiên đè năng lên người tiêu dùng ở Mỹ nhưng Trung Quốc cũng bị vạ lây »Nguy cơ bấn ổn nội địa Trung Quốc Cuộc chiến thương mại phiên bản 2 của ông Trump nổ ra vào lúc kinh tế Trung Quốc vẫn chưa phục hồi sau đại dịch COVID 19 và chưa thoát khỏi khủng hoảng địa ốc kéo dài. Valérie Niquet :« Chiến tranh kinh tế gia tăng cường độ giữa hai siêu cường thế giới này đã bắt đầu dẫn tới những hệ quả đối với toàn cầu chứ không chỉ giới hạn ở Hoa Kỳ và Trung Quốc. Bắc Kinh đã có các biện pháp trả đũa : áp thuế 34 % lên tất cả các mặt hàng Mỹ như đã loan báo. Tuy nhiên nếu chúng ta nhìn vào các sản phẩm của Trung Quốc bán sang Hoa Kỳ thì tổng cộng hàng Trung Quốc bị đánh thuế hải quan hơn 60 %. Không mấy khi tôi bênh vực cho Trung Quốc, nhưng phải công nhận rằng, mức thuế này là quá nặng và bị tung ra vào thời điểm bất lợi cho Trung Quốc. Kinh tế nước này đang đình đốn và từ nhiều năm qua, Trung Quốc vẫn chưa hoàn thành mục tiêu tăng tiêu thụ nội địa để bớt phụ thuộc vào xuất khẩu như vừa nói. Thành thử quyết định của Washington tuần trước, có nguy cơ gây bất ổn trong xã hội Trung Quốc và nguy cơ này là rất, rất lớn » .Tác động đối với Trung Quốc cũng sẽ mạnh hơn so với cuộc chiến thương mại hồi 2018-2019 do Hoa Kỳ cũng đã rút kinh nghiệm trong thương lượng với Bắc Kinh. Trong kế hoạch thuế quan lần này, châu Á là khu vực bị đánh nặng nhất. François Monnier, tổng biên tập tuần báo Investir chuyên về đầu tư :« Chúng ta thấy rõ mục tiêu của Donald Trump là để chuẩn bị cho một cuộc đối đầu với Trung Quốc. Chính vì thế mà Washington đánh thuế rất nặng vào các nước châu Á : Trung Quốc bị 34 % nhưng các nước châu Á khác cũng chịu mức thuế rất cao, tránh để Bắc Kinh sử dụng lại chiến lược Trung Quốc + 1, tức là di dời sản xuất sang các quốc gia chung quanh. Chúng ta thấy Việt Nam bị đánh thuế 46 %. Ở nhiệm kỳ đầu chính quyền Trump đã phạm phải sai lầm chỉ tập trung vào Trung Quốc và do vậy mà các doanh nghiệp nước này chuyển hướng đầu tư sang Việt Nam để từ Việt Nam, xuất khẩu sang Hoa Kỳ. Lần này chúng ta thấy Mỹ tấn công một cách toàn diện vào châu Á ». Ngày 30/03/2025 các quan chức cao cấp ba nước Trung Quốc, Hàn Quốc và Nhật Bản, ba nhà vô địch về xuất khẩu của châu Á họp tại Seoul và bàn về kế hoạch « hợp tác », hướng tới một « khu vực tự do mậu dịch » ba bên. Như thể dưới tác động của « trận bão » mang tên Trump, Tokyo, Bắc Kinh và Seoul tạm gạt sang một bên các bất đồng để cứu nguy kinh tế.Cũng dưới tác động của « Ngày Giải Phóng », Washington tạo cơ hội để Liên Hiệp Châu Âu và Trung Quốc tìm được một sân chơi chung. Thủ tướng Lý Cường và chủ tịch Ủy Ban Châu Âu, Ursula Von der Leyen trong cuộc điện đàm hôm 08/04 đã nhấn mạnh đến « trách nhiệm của Liên Âu tránh gây thêm căng thẳng thương mại toàn cầu ». Đây cũng có thể là cơ hội để làm sống lại thỏa thuận đầu tư mà Bruxelles và Bắc Kinh đã ký vội vào cuối 2020 nhưng từ đó đến này hoàn toàn bị lãng quên.  Sau cùng như báo The Economist nhận định chính sách thuế quan của ông Trump đẩy lạm phát ở Hoa Kỳ lên cao, dân Mỹ càng khó cai nghiện « hàng rẻ Trung Quốc »Nhưng Trung Quốc ý thức rằng, chiến tranh thương mại Washington khai mào có sức công phá rất lớn nếu như Donald Trump hủy hoại kinh tế Hoa Kỳ. Nền kinh tế số 1 thế giới bị đình đốn hay suy thoái thì sẽ là « một thảm họa » với hàng ngàn, hàng chục ngàn công ty Trung Quốc gia công cho các hãng của Mỹ. Các nhà xuất khẩu Trung Quốc cũng bị kéo vào vòng xoáy khủng hoảng vì cho đến nay chưa một thị trường nào trên thế giới, kể cả tại 27 nước Liên Âu có được sức mua mạnh như của 350 triệu dân Mỹ.

La guerra dei dazi entra nel vivo e manda a tappeto i mercati europei. La risposta cinese alle tariffe imposte da Donald Trump - con sovrattasse del 34% su tutti i beni Usa - ha infatti alzato la temperatura dello scontro commerciale. Ad acuire i timori di escalation c'è poi il fatto che il presidente americano non è arrivato alcun passo indietro («le mie politiche non cambieranno mai», ha scritto sul social Truth), nemmeno dopo la seconda giornata di forti cali registrata a Wall Street. Così, le Borse del Vecchio Continente, non solo non recuperano le forti perdite della vigilia, ma segnano tutte perdite attorno ai 4 punti percentuali. Maglia nera è Milano che, con un passivo del 6,5%, azzera quasi completamente i guadagni da inizio anno, mandando in fumo 47 miliardi di euro. «La risposta della Cina ai dazi statunitensi è aggressiva e rende altamente improbabile un accordo a breve termine" con gli Usa, spiega Capital Economics riassumendo gli umori di giornata sui mercati, con il Dragone che sembra credere che la sua economia sia "sufficientemente forte per resistere a qualsiasi attacco di Trump».La Borsa di Milano ha perso il 6,53% arretrando a 34.649 puntiHanno commentato la giornata sui mercati Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist per Spartan Capital Securities, Giulio Tremonti, deputato e presidente della commissione Affari esteri ed europei della Camera e Giulio Sapelli dell'Università Statale Milano.

At the end of one of Lenin's “weeks when decades happen”, senior economists from Capital Economics briefed clients on the implications of the news that China is retaliating aggressively to Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan, including whether Europe could follow suit and how much more pain is in store for markets. In this edited extract from that briefing, Neil Shearing, Mark Williams, Andrew Kenningham and Jonas Goltermann tackle everything from what China has just done to why the dollar has been acting strangely to what could push Brussels to fight back hard against the White House's reciprocal tariffs.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Watch: Trump's reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market's responsehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-china-retaliates-and-markets-responseRead: China hits back, hardhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-hits-back-hardRead: Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/answering-your-questions-about-liberation-day-tariffs

To get your dose of daily business news, tune into Mint Top of the Morning on Mint Podcasts available on all audio streaming platforms. https://open.spotify.com/show/7x8Nv1RlOKyMV5IftIJwP1?si=bf5ecbaedd8f4ddc This is Nelson John, and I'll bring you the top business and tech stories, let's get started.  Harvard in Trump's Crosshairs Harvard is the latest Ivy League school facing Trump's crackdown on alleged campus antisemitism. On Monday, the White House launched a review of its $9 billion in federal funding—weeks after stripping Columbia University of $400 million. Harvard's new president, Alan Garber, has acted swiftly: dismissing Middle Eastern Studies leaders, cutting ties with a West Bank university, and reinforcing academic diversity guidelines. Critics say it's not enough. Former Harvard President Larry Summers accused the school of ignoring Israeli perspectives, while faculty worry Garber is caving to political pressure. Princeton, too, is caught in the crossfire, with Trump pausing dozens of its research grants. Princeton's president calls it “the greatest threat to American universities since the Red Scare.” Garber warns that losing federal funds could cripple research, but with Trump's task force investigating multiple institutions, the battle is far from over. India Eyes Bigger Green Bond Target India is considering increasing its ₹25,342 crore sovereign green bond issuance for FY26, riding on investor interest. Green bonds, which fund renewable energy and climate projects, currently see a 2-3 basis point premium (“greenium”) over regular bonds in India, lower than the 3-8 points seen in developed markets. Officials expect higher returns this year amid global shifts towards sustainable finance. However, if investor demand falls short, the government may scale back. Since 2022, India has issued ₹58,000 crore in green bonds to support its 500 GW non-fossil fuel energy target by 2030. The coming months will determine investor appetite and the country's green finance trajectory. Manufacturing Rebounds, But Trade Risks Loom India's manufacturing sector rebounded in March, with the HSBC PMI hitting 58.1—its highest in eight months—driven by surging new orders. Strong demand and marketing efforts fueled the recovery, but concerns over potential US tariffs linger. President Trump is set to announce new trade measures on April 2, raising fears of weakened exports. A 20% tariff hike could shave 0.4% off India's GDP, according to Capital Economics. Inflation is also rising, with higher costs for copper, electronics, and rubber. The RBI, meeting April 7-9, may cut rates to support growth, but with Q4 GDP tracking at 6.7%, below its 6.5% target, economic uncertainty remains. IPL Drives Food Delivery Boom The IPL season is fueling a surge in food orders, with fast-food chains cashing in. Domino's sees no sign of demand slowing, doubling down on promotions like its six-in-one pizza. Streaming and TV viewership are soaring—JioHotstar reported a 40% spike in digital engagement, while TV audiences hit 253 million in the first three matches. Rebel Foods, which runs Wendy's and Oven Story, increased marketing spend by 10-20%, banking on the cricket frenzy. Last year, IPL-driven sales jumped 60-70%, and brands expect another blockbuster season despite broader economic concerns.

There's a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that's even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global macro outlook. He's joined by Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, who explains what all of this means for US markets exceptionalism.Also on this week's episode, our China Activity Proxy is our long-running proprietary read of what's really happening with Chinese economic activity. Leah Fahy from our China team is on to discuss what the latest read of this widely followed indicator says about the trajectory for Chinese growth in 2025. Analysis referenced in this episodeThe beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-update/beginning-end-us-exceptionalismGlobal Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/global-economic-outlook-trade-war-dampen-not-derail-globalData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyCAP: Weak start to the year for China's economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weak-start-year-chinas-economy

BUSINESS: Capital Economics: PH will 'struggle to fulfill' potential | Mar. 17, 2025Visit our website at https://www.manilatimes.netFollow us:Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebookInstagram - https://tmt.ph/instagramTwitter - https://tmt.ph/twitterDailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotionSubscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digitalSign up to our newsletters: https://tmt.ph/newslettersCheck out our Podcasts:Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotifyApple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcastsAmazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusicDeezer: https://tmt.ph/deezerStitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcherTune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein#TheManilaTimesVisit our website at https://www.manilatimes.netFollow us:Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebookInstagram - https://tmt.ph/instagramTwitter - https://tmt.ph/twitterDailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotionSubscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digitalSign up to our newsletters: https://tmt.ph/newslettersCheck out our Podcasts:Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotifyApple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcastsAmazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusicDeezer: https://tmt.ph/deezerStitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcherTune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein#TheManilaTimes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what's coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade strategy.China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Chief EM Economist William Jackson are also on the show to talk about the economic implications for China, Canada and Mexico, and how their governments might respond. Events referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-trump-tariffs-hit-china-mexico-and-canada-macro-and-market-implicationsChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Home sales plunge, US unemployment is set to spike, this is part of Biden's recession. Trump is now putting everything into place, 25% tariffs on the EU, reciprocal tariffs, gold card to work in this country, the countdown has begun. The [DS] can make head or tails of what Trump is doing, he is moving to fast for them, they are losing the narrative and its not even making sense to the people.In the end all people are going to see is they voting against everything that will Make America Great Again. The investigation in Comey has begun, this will lead to Clinton and Obama. Trump accelerates the plan, massive swamp draining about to happen. Nothing can stop this, nothing.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy New Home Sales Plunge In January As Mortgage Rates Spiked   , US New Home Sales were expected to decline 2.6% MoM in January data released today... and drop they did. New Home Sales puked 10.5% MoM in January (from a hugely upwardly revised December print of +8.1% from +3.6%)...   That dragged sales down 1.1% YoY... Some have argued that winter weather impacted sales... to which we retort - aren't there winter storms every year around this time of year? Maybe the analysts were stuck in rainbows and unicorn land? Source: Bloomberg   Source: zerohedge.com   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1894553047638184204   federal workers so far this year. According to Capital Economics, up to 200,000 federal staffers have likely been let go. Moreover, initial jobless claims in Washington DC have DOUBLED this year to 1,626, the highest since March 2023 and above 2008 levels. US government layoffs are here.  harshly, as if our Companies are their piggy bank. This will now end! It is my objective to level the playing field, and end these attacks. We are putting these Countries on notice to end their unfair treatment of American Companies, large and small. Our Companies are the Greatest Investors in the World, and their Investments will only go to where America is treated well. Our Ingenuity, Grit, Drive and Perseverance have built America. If these Countries want to participate in the AI Industrial Revolution, it is time to choose sides with America, not against us. https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1894519229283786825   to be able to take down trees right now. We're so restricted environmentally... We have more forests than almost anybody. We don't need anybody's trees. We don't need trees from Canada or anybody else." This is how we'll actually solve the housing affordability crisis, NOT by sending government subsidies to anyone.   creates American jobs, and protects our National Security. It's time for Copper to “come home.”    numerous new auto plants from being built in other countries, a GIGANTIC WIN (already!) FOR MICHIGAN, and the United States as a whole. Just let it all happen, and watch, it won't be even close! AMERICAN industry will thrive, and we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1894811122705777048 Trump Announces $5 Million "Gold Card" To "World-Class" Foreigners To Pay Down Deficit  President Trump announced Tuesday evening that the US will soon introduce a new green card for wealthy foreign nationals, dubbed the "gold card," which will cost $5 million and grant residency, work rights, and a pathway to citizenship. This pay-to-play legal immigration program aims to attract job creators and high-level talent, marking a stark difference to the Biden-Harris regime's open bo...

On this week's episode Damien and Andy talk about their best and worst money decisions ever. They also discuss how good and bad luck have affected their finances at various points in their lives. Most important of all, Damien explains why it's essential everyone acknowledges the good, the bad, the lucky and unlucky decisions they've made if they are to make better decisions in the future.Thank you to our sponsor LightyearThis show is sponsored by Lightyear - https://moneytothemasses.com/redir/lightyear-isa-pod, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityWatch the whole show on YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠:Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show.00:00 - Podcast Episode 49504:10 - Damien's Worst Financial Decisions06:45 - Andy's Credit Card Experience08:25 - Career Choices and Financial Missteps11:22 - Lessons Learned: The Importance of Hindsight14:03 - Andy's Property Journey17:04 - Luck vs. Hard Work in Financial Success19:51 - Damien's Mortgage Experience: Good Decisions Amidst Bad Luck21:29 - The Role of Luck in Financial Decisions24:20 - The Birth of Money to the Masses26:14 - Acknowledging Luck in Financial Journeys31:57 - Navigating Privilege and Opportunities32:39 - The Impact of Financial Decisions35:54 - Lessons from Engagement with Pensions36:29 - Some More 'Best and Worst' Financial Decisions41:19 - Reflections on Luck and Timing in FinanceFollow Money to the Masses on social media:YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners.Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us.Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the show

It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded.Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region's economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Explore: Global economic fracturinghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyDrop-In: German election 2025 – The new government's domestic and global challengeshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challengesEM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities

On this week's episode, we explain how to improve your chances of getting a mortgage. Then, we look at how you can maximise your retirement income by using a combination of annuities and drawdown. Finally, Andy highlights three websites that can help predict upcoming changes to the energy price cap before revealing that it's not too late to fix your energy tariff and avoid the likely price increases.Thank you to our sponsor LightyearThis show is sponsored by Lightyear - https://moneytothemasses.com/redir/lightyear-isa-pod, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityWatch the whole show on YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠:Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show.00:00 - Podcast Episode 49403:31 - Mortgage Preparation and Tips05:17 - Understanding Credit Reports08:07 - Managing Debt and Financial Health09:25 - Understanding Debt to Income Ratio10:15 - The Importance of Credit Utilization11:40 - Managing Old Credit Accounts12:47 - Avoiding New Lines of Credit13:31 - Social Media's Role in Mortgage Applications14:18 - Managing Overdrafts and Direct Debits15:09 - Annual Payments vs Monthly Commitments16:26 - Saving for a Mortgage Deposit17:06 - Understanding Employment History and Mortgages18:20 - Self-Employment and Mortgage Applications20:17 - The Importance of Budgeting21:12 - Working with a Mortgage Advisor22:00 - The Dangers of Misrepresentation22:49 - Maximizing Pension Income31:29 - Understanding Energy Price CapsFollow Money to the Masses on social media:YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners.Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us.Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the showLinks referred to in the podcast: Speak to a Mortgage Broker* Mortgage Comparison Tool How to find a financial adviser you can trust Energy Price Cap predicted to rise again in April What is the cheapest fixed-price energy tariff Should I fix my energy prices British Gas - Energy price cap prediction EDF - Energy price cap prediction Eon Next Energy price cap prediction

Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here. The episode's main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone's biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country's stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implicationsGerman economy post-election: from bad to not much betterhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-betterData: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitorhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitorThe slow agony of Germany's auto industryhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry

No podcast ‘Notícia No Seu Tempo’, confira em áudio as principais notícias da edição impressa do jornal ‘O Estado de S.Paulo’ desta sexta-feira (14/02/2025): O presidente Donald Trump assinou memorando com objetivo de criar taxas para as importações americanas, provenientes de todos os países, com as mesmas tarifas que são cobradas de exportadores dos EUA. A decisão aumentou os temores de que se deflagre uma guerra comercial global. A Casa Branca citou como exemplo de disparidade tarifária o etanol brasileiro. Conforme a Casa Branca, a tarifa dos EUA sobre o etanol é de 2,5%, enquanto o Brasil impõe 18%. Consultoria americana diz que Brasil e Índia seriam os países mais afetados pela medida. As novas tarifas serão impostas país por país, após estudo, e devem entrar em vigor em 2 de abril. E mais: Política: Gestão Nunes firma contratos sem licitação com empresas investigadas Metrópole: Traficante visto como elo entre PCC e PV é suspeito de matar delator Internacional: Potências europeias exigem inclusão da Ucrânia em negociações de paz Caderno 2: Sting celebra The Police e carreira soloSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode Damien provides an in-depth look at the best investment and trading apps for UK investors. He covers a range of scenarios to help listeners/viewers identify the platform that best suits their needs - whether that's a hands-off managed portfolio, a cost-conscious passive approach, or an active stock trading strategy. Next, Andy looks at the latest data from the Current Account Switching Service (CASS). He highlights the key findings, including the total number of switches in the last 12 months, as well as the banks that have seen the highest net gains and losses. Finally, Andy discusses the rising popularity of a payment method being offered by some online retailers - the 'pay by bank app' option, including the pitfalls.Thank you to our sponsor LightyearThis show is sponsored by Lightyear - https://moneytothemasses.com/redir/lightyear-isa-pod, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityWatch the whole show on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠:Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show.00:00 - Introduction to Episode 49301:30 - Interest Rate cut by 0.25% 02:37 - Best Investing and Trading Apps Overview03:48 - Checklist for Choosing Investment Apps05:15 - Investment Scenarios for Different Investor Types10:28 - Best Investing App for Hands-Off Investors and Managed Portfolios12:56 - Best Investing App for Cost-Conscious Passive Investors15:56 - Best Investing App for Socially Conscious Investors16:47 - Best Investing App for Active Stock Traders18:35 - Best Investing App for Investing in Lifetime ISAs19:16 - Best Investing App for Automating Savings and Investments21:03 - Understanding CFD Trading Risks21:28 - The Importance of Research in Investing Platforms22:10 - Current Account Switching Service Overview22:53 - Analysing Bank Switching Trends24:28 - Consumer Protection when paying onlineFollow Money to the Masses on social media:YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners.Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us.Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the showLinks referred to in the podcast:Interactive Investor reviewInvestEngine reviewAJ Bell Dodl reviewFreetrade reviewMoneyfarm reviewWealthify reviewNutmeg reviewLightyear reviewBest investing apps in the UKCheck out all our investing reviewsLatest bank switch dataBest bank account switching offers

It's been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn't happen, and the implications for macro and markets.As well as discussing the lessons learned from Donald Trump's trade actions so far, Neil reviews the latest US labour market data and talks about why Europe and the US appear to be on such divergent economic paths.Also on the episode, China Economist Leah Fahy talks to Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah about her striking new analysis which shows how China is taking market share from low-end EM manufacturers, upending a long-standing theory about how these economies industrialise in the process. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:EMs and the suspension of US aidhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-economics-update/ems-and-suspension-us-aidDrop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverginghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-inflation-watch-how-us-and-eu-inflation-paths-are-divergingCommodities Drop-In: Trump tariffs and global commodities marketshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-trump-tariffs-and-global-commodities-markets

Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this marks the beginning of a global trade war. Neil addresses the immediate economic threats to Canada and Mexico, but also explains why these tariffs end the chance of any more rate cuts from the Fed. He also discusses what further action Trump could take against US trade partners – not least China – and the broader risks to the global trading environment. For more on the Trump policy agenda and its macro implications, see this dedicated page:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term

On this week's episode, Damien discusses seven of the main behavioural biases that can affect your investment decision making and hurt your investment returns. Damien also explores crowdfunding, the potential rewards, risks and examples of crowdfunding successes and failures. Finally, Andy looks at financial planning week and the free tools and advice that are available for those wanting to sort their finances. Thank you to our sponsor Lightyear This show is sponsored by ⁠Lightyear⁠, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority Watch the whole show on YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show. 00:00 - Celebrating 15 Years of Money to the Masses 02:43 - Understanding Behavioral Biases in Investing 19:46 - Mitigating Investment Biases for Better Decisions 20:13 - Understanding Crowdfunding: An Overview 21:02 - Types of Crowdfunding Explained 23:27 - How Crowdfunding Works 24:05 - Potential Rewards of Crowdfunding 25:40 - Risks Involved in Crowdfunding 28:03 - Behavioural Biases in Crowdfunding 30:28 - Final Thoughts on Crowdfunding 30:44 - Financial Planning Week Overview 31:00 - Get a Free Financial Review Follow Money to the Masses on social media: YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners. Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us. Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the show Links referred to in the podcast: Can you solve this (YouTube video) Get a FREE Financial Review Get a FREE pension review Financial Planning Week Top 5 alternatives to Vanguard

On this week's episode, Damien discusses whether you should fix your mortgage or take out a tracker mortgage. He then talks about how to find the best travel insurance for you, including what to look for in a policy and some tips to save money. Finally, Andy revisits the 2024 weekly podcast quizzes, revealing which questions listeners struggled with the most Thank you to our sponsor Lightyear This show is sponsored by Lightyear, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority Watch the whole show on YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show. 0:00:00 - Money to the Masses Podcast Episode 491 0:03:15 - Mortgage Decision-Making: Fixed vs. Tracker Rates 0:06:39 - How mortgage rates are influenced by the Bank of England base rate 0:09:16 - Bank of England base rate predictions over the next 5 years 0:10:48 - What are the best fixed-rate mortgage rates right now? 0:11:32 - What are the best tracker mortgage rates right now? 0:11:52 - What are the best remortgage rates right now? 0:13:20 - Working out how much a mortgage rate increase will cost you when you remortgage 0:14:48 - Should I fix my mortgage? 0:15:05 - Should I go for a 2 or 5 year fix? 0:16:44 - Pros and cons of going for a fixed-rate mortgage 0:17:00 - Pros and cons of going for a tracker mortgage 0:20:08 - When should you start the process of remortgaging? 0:22:13 - What is travel insurance 0:24:43 - How to compare the best travel insurance policies 0:25:15 - How much travel insurance do you need? 0:30:00 - The best travel insurance policies for 2025 Follow Money to the Masses on social media: YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Support the podcast You can now support the MTTM podcast by visiting our  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠dedicated podcast page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠when making any financial decision. You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners. Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us. Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the show Links referred to in the podcast: ⁠⁠⁠

Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of some of what the president has pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing was on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House. Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussain from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Central Bank Hubhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hubRead: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrowhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrowEvent: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025Read: What to make of Trump's National Energy Emergency?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergencyRead: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what's known and unknown about Donald Trump's policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution.Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdownhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdownUS continues to lead the way on our AI indexhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-indexUS Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-termWhy we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025

Israel's economy has been hit by the 15-month-long war in Gaza, and its military spending has gone up significantly, according to the economic researchers at Capital Economics. We will be speaking to one of the economic analysts who did the research. The former Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, says he is running to replace Justin Trudeau as the leader of Canada's governing Liberal Party. Casting himself as an outsider with strong economic credentials, he distanced himself from the prime minister's unpopular government. And, we will look at who's planning a trip to North Korea during the northern hemisphere holiday. The country has reopened one of its border cities to foreign tourists for the first time in five years.

A grim week for bonds was capped by a stunningly hot US jobs report. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joined the first episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year to explain what these jobs numbers signal about the health of the US economy and how the Fed could respond. They also discuss the fall-out in global bond markets, including why gilts have been under particular pressure despite the Labour government's efforts to prove its fiscal bona fides with the investors.  Analysis and events referenced in this episode:UK Weekly: Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problemshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-weekly/gilt-market-not-crisis-it-does-cause-problemsChina Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbihttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-weekly-more-weakness-store-renminbiCapital Economics eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

The final Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year has Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing making sense of that December Federal Reserve meeting and explaining what the latest PCE data say about the inflation outlook and where rates are heading in 2025. He also addresses why hopes for a sweeping ‘Mar-a-Lago accord' (or 'Plaza Accord 2.0') that would tackle US-China currency imbalances are likely to be disappointed. Plus, a dramatic plunge in the value of Brazil's real shows how far investors have fallen out with Lula's spendthrift administration. In an exclusive clip from our client briefing on Brazil's crisis, William Jackson, Jason Tuvey and Jonas Goltermann discuss the real's fair value, the effectiveness of FX intervention and what the government needs to do to get investors back onside. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:The Fracturing of the Global Economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyData: Bank of England Caseometerhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/bank-england-caseometerEM Drop-In: Brazil's currency crisis – Economic and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-brazils-currency-crisis-economic-and-market-implicationsData: EM Financial Risk Indicatorshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/em-financial-risk-indicators

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing outlines the three big policy quandaries facing three big DM central banks. He unpacks the ECB's December decision, previews the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings and talks about which of these institutions faces the greatest risks in 2025.Neil also talks about whether China's policy pivot will translate into meaningful efforts to support and rebalance the economy, discusses what events in Syria say about geopolitics and the macro narrative and highlights a key risk for the coming year. Plus, following our dive into the big macro themes for 2025, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is on the show to talk about the financial markets outlook – including why we think a bubble in US equities will keep inflating over the year. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-december-meetings-and-2025-policy-outlookLatest quarterly Outlookshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/outlooksWeek-ahead Forecastshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/week-ahead-forecasts

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump's policy pledges will – and won't – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next yearhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-yearDrop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook

Tech off track for the week Bitcoin stampede finally slows. Eco data – humming along and the Fed is starting to change its tune. Guest: Jonathan Petersen, Variant Perception  NEW! DOWNLOAD THE AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES "Fiscal Sisyphus" is a term used to describe a situation where fiscal policy supports growth despite economic "gravity" dragging it down. The term refers to the Greek myth of Sisyphus, who was condemned by the gods to roll a boulder up a hill in the underworld, only to have it roll back down every time he reached the top. The myth is often used as a metaphor for the futility of life and the importance of finding joy in the present moment. Jonathan Petersen is Chief Markets Economist at Variant Perception, where he contributes to the analyst team's research on major economies and markets. He started his economics career on Vanguard's global economic research team. Following this, he helped launch and lead the currency research service at Capital Economics. Jonathan studied economics and strategic management at Boston College and earned his masters in economics at the University of Edinburgh. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy? Click HERE for the virtual tour. Stocks Mentioned in the Episode: (GLD), (BTCUSD), (AMD), (QQQ) Follow @andrewhorowitz

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect's online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsGlobal Drop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respondhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respondData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyIs a bubble in India's stock market deflating?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump's threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who'll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsCanada, China and Mexico in Trump's firing line​https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-lineDrop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing's point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia's earnings say about AI's potential. Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:London Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-overTrump and the war in Ukrainehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraineDrop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What's driving oil prices in 2025?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Topic #1: Interest.co.nz 20th of November-Independent global economic researchers Capital Economics say despite their expectation the RBNZ will slash the OCR to just 2.25% in 2025 the housing market price recovery will be 'muted'Topic #2: The Mortgage Mag 19th of November -Mortgages harder to get over the lineTopic #3: NZ Herald 19th of November -Landlord paid $4k after $40k of damage, goes to Tenancy TribunalTopic #4: Stuff 21st of November - Investors on the rebound and first home buyers still strong in sluggish marketTopic #5: RNZ 21st of November -Capital gains tax the best way to raise revenue as NZ 's population ages - TreasuryClick to book a free, no-obligation meeting with PaulClick to join a free Online or In-Person How to Succeed with Property Investing EventSupport the show*Nothing from this episode should be taken as individual financial advice. *Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump's cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy.Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets wears off, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses what lies ahead for equities, bonds and currencies. 

In episode 16 of the Alternative Allocations podcast, Kate Huntington joins Tony to discuss her years of experience partnering with family offices, endowments and foundations and how she approaches incorporating alternative investments into her clients' portfolios. They delve into the importance of due diligence and understanding the role of each asset class when working with clients to determine the best strategy for each situation. Whether it's an individual investor or large family office, often the investment thesis is the same – it's about enhanced returns, diversification, and having a long-term mindset. Kate Huntington, Managing Director, Head of Advisory Solutions Group. Kate leads the Advisory Solutions Group within Fiduciary Trust which brings comprehensive investment advisory solutions to ultra high net worth and institutional clients. Kate has an expertise in both private markets and sustainable investing and previously was the co-head of the research and manager selection team at Athena Capital Advisors. Kate's prior roles include working as a Consulting Associate at Cambridge Associates where she supported consultants in managing, advising on, and reporting on a variety of institutional clients' investment portfolios. Kate started her career as a Research Analyst at Stonebridge Associates, a real estate investment and advisory firm, and then transitioned to economic consulting with both Capital Economics and LECG, where she was an Economist/Consultant providing economic analysis and market research to support high-profile anti-trust litigation. Kate earned her Master of Business Administration from Yale School of Management and her Bachelor of Arts in economics from University of Virginia. Kate is Co-author –Diversity and Inclusion Framework, December 2019; Co-author –Investing in Gender Equality, January 2018; Co-author –Impact Investing: History & Opportunity, January 2017; Co-author –Social Finance and the Postmodern Portfolio: Theory & Practice, Journal of Wealth Management (Spring 2016). Kate currently holds the Series 7, 24 and 65 licenses and is active as a Member, Board of Trustees, Becket-Chimney Corners YMCA. Kate Huntington | LinkedIn Fiduciary Trust International Alternatives by Franklin Templeton Tony Davidow, CIMA® | LinkedIn

Ahead of the year's big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris' fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.)Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRegister Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of unionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-unionKey Issues: US election 2024https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quickerHow worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what's behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public debt in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. There's more on the UK Budget too, with a preview of what to expect from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Wednesday statement from Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory.Plus, Canada's population could shrink for the first time in over 150 years if Ottawa's stringent new immigration targets are met. That has huge implications for the country's economic outlook and for Bank of Canada policy, as Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains. Analysis referenced in this podcast:Payrolls preview: Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strengthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/temporary-disruptions-stymie-recent-strengthWill Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-focus/will-treasury-bulls-be-able-face-down-bond-vigilantesKey Issue: What to expect on UK 2024 Budget dayhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-2024-october-budgetCanada's population decline will drag down GDP growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-update/population-decline-will-drag-down-gdp-growth

Donald Trump says ‘tariff' is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That's up for debate – but what's less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, according to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He's on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss why tariffs would hurt the US economy and the economies of its key trading partners, all while failing to achieve Trump's objectives. Also on the show, Hamad Hussein from our Climate and Commodities team explains why reports of cooling electric vehicles sales in the US and Europe paint an incomplete demand picture, and what that all means for oil appetite.Plus, an exclusive extract from our post-ECB client briefing on the Governing Council's next steps – including whether its last move of the year could be a super-sized rate cut. Analysis and events referenced in this podcast:Read: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldKey Issue: US Election 2024Read: Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024Watch: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Read: Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rolloutData: Long-term Energy Scenario Generator

It's a rare thing for a press conference from China's Minister of Finance to excite quite so much, but there were widespread hopes in markets that Saturday's briefing from Lan Fo'an would finally provide the details of fiscal easing plans that had been missing from the government's stimulus pledges so far. Did Minister Lan deliver? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his assessment on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics and discusses what the leadership needs to deliver to boost confidence in its steering of the economy. Neil also talks about the latest flow of US data and what that signals about what the Fed will do in November and previews the coming week's ECB policy meeting. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Assistant Economist Joe Maher talk about India's economic rise and whether it will trigger a massive and broad surge in commodities prices, as China did previously. Research and events referenced in this episode:MOF promises more spending but scale still unclearAsia Drop-In: How far will policy easing go to support Asia's economies?Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?RBI on course for December rate cut

Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election?Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. They talk to David Wilder about the big issues in global macro and markets in a wide-ranging chat that takes in:How quickly the Fed will unwind its restrictive policy and where it will stop cutting rates;What's holding European equities back from outperforming the US; Why escalating conflict in the Middle East hasn't had a big impact on markets so far, and what could change that.Further readingRaymond James Letter from the CIO: The Great American Road Triphttps://www.raymondjames.com/trimaranadvisors/resources/2024/10/01/the-great-american-road-tripCE Group Chief Economist Note: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/how-trump-could-erode-us-economic-advantage-fractured-worldCE: US Macro Scenarios dashboardhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/scenariosCE: China stimulus - Your questions answeredhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-stimulus-your-questions-answeredCE: Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cyclehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/latest-thoughts-r-and-where-rates-end-cycleAbout Larry AdamLarry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as the chief investment officer for Private Client Group. Prior to joining Raymond James, Larry, as a managing director, held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and global chief investment strategist for Deutsche Bank private wealth management. He sat on the U.S. investment committee, the management team responsible for investment strategy and asset allocation for U.S. discretionary client portfolios. He was also a member of Deutsche Bank's global investment committee that formalizes and establishes the global house view. Prior to being named Deutsche Bank's global chief investment strategist, Larry was the head of the asset allocation and quantitative analysis group, the group responsible for analyzing and implementing client-specific asset allocation strategies. He joined Deutsche Bank in 1992.Larry received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master's degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management AnalystSM certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Larry has been featured prominently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Barron's and the International Herald Tribune.About Neil Shearing Neil Shearing is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. He has overall responsibility for managing our team of economists and leading our research, as well as developing the firm's products and its relationship with clients. He is also a director of the company. Neil is the first point of contact for many clients and presents regularly on the global economic and financial market outlook. He is a well-known voice within the investment community and has written articles in the Financial Times and a number of other newspapers, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio.Prior to becoming Group Chief Economist, Neil was Chief Emerging Markets Economist, managing a team that won several awards for forecast accuracy. He also managed our New York office. Neil joined Capital Economics from HM Treasury where he worked as an Economic Adviser in various areas, including fiscal policy and global economics. He holds degrees in Economics from the University of York and the University of London and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. 

As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we're expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move. Senior Markets Economist James Reilly is also on the show to talk about our new interactive dashboard which crunches more than six decades of Fed and market data to give investors a clear guide to how major asset prices will respond to monetary easing. Finally, Simon MacAdam, our Deputy Chief Global Economist, discusses our Economic Momentum Indicators, which give investors single, comparable data points showing whether DM economies are facing recession.  He tells Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis what the indicators are saying about the growth risks faced by the US and Germany.Analysis and Data Dashboards referenced in this episode:Report: Rate cuts and asset returnsDashboard: Rate Cuts & Asset ReturnsReport: How to gauge recession risk in DMsDashboard: Composite Economic Momentum Indicators

That August payrolls report was one of the more keenly awaited data releases in a while – but what do its details suggest about how the Fed is likely to start monetary easing when it meets later this month?  On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talk recession risks, the Fed and ECB meetings, manufacturing's struggles and more.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:US August Employment Report ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts US Scenarios Dashboard Capital Economics online and in-person events

August's US employment report release on Friday will be the coming week's must-watch market event. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what we're expecting and how the outcome could influence the anticipated start of Fed easing this month. Neil also discusses China's confusing policy signals and, ahead of client briefings this week, highlights some of the key risks that the economist team is watching between now and year-end.Also on the show, Zichun Huang from our China team explains what Beijing needs to do to resolve the property market's giant inventory of unsold apartments – but also why resolution won't dramatically alter the Chinese economic outlook. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:US August payrolls previewGlobal Drop-In: Towards 2025 – Risks to the global economic and market outlookChina's gold rush has much further to runChina Activity Proxy: Growth picks up thanks to fiscal boostPBOC at the mercy of leadership's muddled prioritiesHow to fix China's property destocking scheme

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed's annual gathering at Jackson Hole. Neil and Stephen assess the likelihood of the Fed's easing cycle beginning with a 50 basis point cut, look ahead to the coming week's inflation and consumption data, and also take in Kamala Harris' nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discussed signs of improvement in China-India ties and what they mean in a global economy that's fracturing into US and China-led economic blocs.  Referenced in this episode:US Economic Weekly: 25bp or 50bp?US CRE: Time to go shopping for retail assetsWhat Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturingKey Issues: The fracturing of the global economyWeek-ahead Calendar & Forecasts

The S&P 500 is above 5,500 for the first time ever, but one economist says the index can hit 7,000 by next year. Capital Economics' Neil Shearing lays out his thesis. Plus, the start of summer driving season, paired with Hurricane Beryl, could have a big impact on oil prices. CIBC Private Wealth's Rebecca Babin explains. And, it could be a record year for 4th of July travel, with the TSA projecting more than 32 million people will fly during the holiday. Morgan Stanley's Stephen Grambling discusses.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is group chief economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. He is also an associate fellow at Chatham House, an International Affairs think tank. In his Capital Economics role, Neil manages a team of economists and is a well-known voice in the investment community. He has served as chief emerging markets economist and once managed Capital Economics' New York office, having joined the firm in 2006 from the United Kingdom's Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioChatham HouseWorld Economy, Globalization, and Elections“China, Inflation, Trade Wars—Your Frequently Asked Questions,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, March 4, 2024.“Maintaining Market Confidence Is Key to Managing ‘Snowballing' Public Debt,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, April 8, 2024.“Pivoting Central Bankers Must Face Down the Ghost of Arthur Burns,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 29, 2024.“Ignore the Straight-Line Forecasts. These Forces Will Shape the Global Economy to 2050,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 26, 2024.“In the China Vs. US Size Stakes, It's What You Measure That Counts,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 15, 2024.“Trump Trade Wars, Stock Market Bubbles, Japan's Market Comeback, and the World in 2050,” Capital Economics Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 15, 2024.“World Economy Is Fracturing, not Deglobalizing,” by Neal Shearing, chathamhouse.org, Feb. 8, 2023.“It's All Connected—Why Investors Can't Ignore the Global Economy's Megatrends,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Oct. 2, 2023.Artificial Intelligence“From Upbeat to Apocalyptic: Making Sense of the AI Headlines,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 22, 2024.“How to Get a Handle on AI's Many Implications for Economies and Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 10, 2023.Other“Read My Lips: No New Tax Cuts,” by Paul Ashworth, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 12, 2024.

The commercial real estate market has been faced with headwinds for years, and 2024 may not be any different. With weak growth in the sector and a high interest rate environment that has pushed the cost of ownership to new heights, the CRE space is expected to continue falling in value this year. In fact, property values could fall another 10% after falling 11% last year, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist Kiran Raichura. He sees growth softening “as the industrial rent boom gives way to more ‘normal' growth rates and apartment rents flatline,” he wrote.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The commercial real estate market has been faced with headwinds for years, and 2024 may not be any different. With weak growth in the sector and a high interest rate environment that has pushed the cost of ownership to new heights, the CRE space is expected to continue falling in value this year. In fact, property values could fall another 10% after falling 11% last year, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist Kiran Raichura. He sees growth softening “as the industrial rent boom gives way to more ‘normal' growth rates and apartment rents flatline,” he wrote.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices