Podcasts about Capital Economics

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and the author of a new book, The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. In addition to managing a team of economists and serving as a voice in the investment community, Neil is an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank. He joined Capital Economics in 2006 from the United Kingdom's Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioThe Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global EconomyChatham House“Neil Shearing: What You Might Be Missing About the Current Economy,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 16, 2024.Global Economic Fracturing, Tariffs, and AI“America or China? As the Global Economy Fractures, the World Will Have to Choose,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 14, 2025.“Trump, Institutions, and the Deafening Silence of the Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 6, 2025.“Chinese Overcapacity Is a Disinflationary Gift and a Geopolitical Threat,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 21, 2025.“Fiscal Stability Is Now as Much About People as Policy,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 14, 2025.“This Trade War Is the Symptom—Global Fracturing Is the Cause,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 7, 2025.“'Tariff Man' Returns, US-China Diverging Price Risks—and Is AI Triggering a Jobs Bloodbath?” The Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, July 11, 2025.“Chip Choke: What Happens if China Throttles Taiwan's Economy,” by Neil Shearing, afr.com, April 26, 2025.OtherHuaweiSmoot-Hawley Tariff ActBIS Triennial Central Bank Survey“America's Biggest Rare-Earth Producer Makes a Play to End China's Dominance,” by Jon Emont, wsj.com, July 15, 2025.

Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in question. What does his return mean for the trajectory of this fracturing, and how has the balance of risks evolved?In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explore the fracturing of the global economy. Ahead of the publication of fresh analysis about how fracturing has developed since Trump's return, they talk to David Wilder about how this process began long before the president was elected in 2016,  how it's accelerating under his second term and where it might lead. Topics covered in this 30-minute episode include:The inevitability of US–China economic rivalry – and the scope for détenteHow fracturing is fuelling a global tech arms raceWhether Trump's unilateralism could further strain or even break Western alliances.Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Fracturing under Trump – Register now:Singapore, 3rd SeptemberHong Kong, 4th SeptemberLondon, 17th SeptemberNew York, 9th OctoberRead: The fracturing of the global economyRead: The US, China and the Fractured Age

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including:What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day' tariff pause approaches expiryWhether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in timeWhy China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreementWhat's really troubling about the passage of Trump's “big, beautiful” tax billWhat moves in gilt and sterling markets this week revealed about the UK Labour Party's fiscal credibilityAlso on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis discusses her new in-depth report on the outlook for global trade amid rising tariffs. She explains why her forecasts challenge the narrative of deglobalisation and also shares highlights from our latest Global Economic Outlook, including China's looming slowdown and India's relative outperformance.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Data: China-US Trade ReroutingData: Tariff Impact ModelRead: What do tariffs mean for global trade?Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor

A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there's less to see with that US-China deal and those divisions on the FOMC. Also on the show, BYD and DeepSeek may be in the spotlight, but their rise reflects deeper structural flaws in China's economy. They're a sign of economic success, but also of the growing distortions in the government's industrial strategy – weaknesses that are increasingly evident in China's dismal productivity data. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams has been delving into the details of Xi Jinping's industrial roadmap and the productivity data to tell David what this all says about China's economic outlook.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: China's push for innovation is not lifting productivityRoundtable: One year on: Is the UK government boosting growth?Read: Fed independence not a concern for markets, yetRead: APAC Commercial Property Outlook: Values to fall as region's markets struggle to recoverData: APAC Commercial Property

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I'm Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Dr. Paul Ashworth. Paul serves as Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics. He joined the London-based research firm in 2001 from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research after taking degrees in economics and mathematics at Strathclyde and Warwick in the United Kingdom and completing a Ph.D. in monetary policy. In 2010, Paul was named Wall Street Journal Forecaster of the Year.BackgroundBioCapital Economics“Ashworth Tops Economy Survey,” by Justin Lahart, wsj.com, Feb. 7, 2011.Tariffs, Trade, and Inflation“Trump Tariffs Get to Stay in Place for Now. What Happens Next?” by Peter Hoskins and Yang Tian, bbc.com, May 30, 2025.“Economists Welcome U.S.-U.K. Agreement for Signal Rather Than Substance,” by Harriet Torry, wsj.com, May 8, 2025.“This Economist Thinks the Tariff Pause Could Be Permanent,” by Hannah Erin Lang, wsj.com, April 9, 2025.“Consumer Sentiment Darkens Further With Inflation Worries Rising,” by Chao Deng, wsj.com, May 16, 2025.Other“Why Trump Decided Not to Try to Fire Jerome Powell,” by Brian Schwartz, Josh Dawsey, and Nick Timiraos, wsj.com, April 23, 2025.“The Weekly Briefing: AI's Productivity Boom, Central Bank Rhetoric vs Reality, Recession Risk and More,” A Capital Economics podcast, Sept. 22, 2023.

Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks. John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, is also on the show to talk about the financial markets angle to this turnaround in global sentiment. He sees more upside for US equities, even after the notable gains of recent weeks, and isn't convinced that investors have set themselves up for a fall. Plus, following the launch of our ‘Future of Europe' series, Franziska Palmas discuss how Germany's economic outlook is looking a bit more optimistic, but also why the bloc's biggest economy will continue to struggle – and what that means for boosters of the idea of the EU becoming a third geo-economic pillar alongside the US and China. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Global Trade Stress MonitorCapital Daily: US big tech is back … but not at China's expenseCapital Daily: Back to the future?Capital Economics EventsData: Global Markets ForecastsThe Future of Europe

China y Estados Unidos iniciaron este miércoles 14 de mayo una tregua comercial de tres meses, en la que se acordó que rebajarán en 115 puntos porcentuales los aranceles cruzados de las últimas semanas. La escalada arancelaria se produjo en medio de las presiones de Donald Trump y las medidas recíprocas tomadas por Xi Jinping. Con esta tregua, ¿quién pierde el pulso? Beijing y Washington anunciaron un acuerdo para rebajar mutuamente los aranceles impuestos en las últimas semanas.De esa forma, y por 90 días, China reducirá del 125% al 10% los aranceles sobre productos estadounidenses; mientras que EE. UU. los bajará del 145% al 30% para los bienes chinos.El pacto, que da un respiro al comercio global y las economías de las dos potencias, tiene lugar en medio de una guerra arancelaria emprendida por Donald Trump.Aunque, tradicionalmente, el tema comercial ha servido como principal factor disuasorio para evitar otros conflictos entre estos dos grandes rivales, la escalada de las últimas semanas ha disparado el nerviosismo de los mercados y presionado al comercio global. Aunque la reacción de Beijing ha sido discreta, analistas consideran que la economía china ha sacado ventaja de la guerra arancelaria."La retirada de aranceles supone una clara reivindicación de la postura calculada y proporcionada de Beijing a la hora de responder a las acciones comerciales de la Administración Trump", según un informe de la firma de análisis Trivium China.En contraste, según el economista jefe para Asia de la consultora británica Capital Economics, Mark Williams, la tregua “es otro paso atrás en la postura agresiva de la Administración Trump”, especialmente porque el Gobierno de Xi se ha mantenido firme, sin ceder a las demandas de Washington. Leer tambiénTregua comercial entre China y EE. UU. impulsa al yuan y mercados, pero persiste cautela entre inversores La gran pregunta es qué hay detrás del acuerdo para reducir los aranceles.¿Por qué la Casa Blanca ablandó su discurso? ¿Qué tanto aprovechó China para redoblar sus vínculos comerciales con otros países? Para analizar el tema, participan en El Debate dos invitados.- Desde Santiago, Andrés Bórquez, investigador de El Núcleo Milenio sobre Impactos de China en América Latina.- En Lima, Carlos Aquino, director del Centro de Estudios Asiáticos y docente de Economía Asiática en la Universidad Nacional San Marcos.

One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come.In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard unpack what was actually agreed between the US and UK, and look ahead to this weekend's pivotal US-China negotiations in Switzerland.Julian discusses the outlook for China's exports following their remarkable post-pandemic surge and considers what further stimulus measures might be on the cards. Neil assesses the broader state of global trade ahead of the looming expiration of Donald Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff pause.Neil also offers a preview of our major upcoming series on the future of Europe – an in-depth project that cuts through the recent optimism to deliver clear-headed analysis, robust data, and compelling presentations.Events and analysis referenced in this episodeThe Future of EuropeData: Tariff Impact ModelData: China Labour Market Indicator

If you're looking for evidence of the negative hit from Donald Trump's tariffs, you'll struggle to find it in the hard data. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics minutes after the release of the US employment report for April to talk about how economies have been holding up in the weeks since the ‘Liberation Day' announcement. In his conversation with David Wilder, he addresses the key issues of the moment, including:What Q1 US GDP data and port data aren't telling us about the negative hit to impact on economies from tariffs;Whether markets have become too complacent about the tariffs impact;How the tariffs threat will influence the Federal Reserve and Bank of England at their meetings in the coming week.Plus, ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting on Monday, David Oxley and Olivia Cross from our Commodities & Climate desk talk about what recent signals from Saudi officials could mean for already-weak oil prices. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: The Fed, Bank of England and ECB – Making sense of the latest rate decisionsData: Central Bank HubDrop-In: Which economies could gain if the US turns away from China?Read: Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports?Drop-In: The future of OPEC+, oil prices and the Gulf

Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to assess whether there has been a fundamental improvement in the outlook, or if this is a case of investors smoking too much “hopium”. In a wide ranging chat, they discuss:What the latest economic data suggest about the impact of higher tariffs;The chances that the US and China engage enough to get a deal done;Whether King Dollar could be overthrown – and the risks of a dollar crash. Events and analysis referenced in this episodeRecording: Is the dollar's global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-dollars-global-dominance-casualty-tariff-chaosANZ Drop-In: Australia's election, RBA easing and the economic outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/anz-drop-australias-election-rba-easing-and-economic-outlookDrop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump's second term so farhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-100-days-economic-impact-trumps-second-term-so-far

Kenya's president on a five-day state visit to China, its largest lender, while Beijing's trade war with Washington intensifies. How is it worsening? And what's the impact on countries like Kenya, which do business with both economic superpowers? In this episode: Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow, Taihe Institute. Robert Scott, Independent International Economist. David Omojomolo, Emerging Market Economist, Africa, Capital Economics. Host: Folly Bah Thibault Connect with us:@AJEPodcasts on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook

Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump's chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including:What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” endsWhy we think US growth risks have risen but we still don't expect a recession How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflationWhat curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty If there's a US-China trade deal to be doneAnalysis referenced in this episode:Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhereRead: Is China offloading its dollar assets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assetsData: Tariff Impact Model (TIM)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threathttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threatRead: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025

As the dust settles after another of week of dramatic policy shifts, the picture that has emerged is a familiar one from Trump's first term: China is the main target after all. China isn't taking Trump's tariffs lying down. Instead, it has hit back tariff for tariff so that both sides are now applying tariffs to each others' goods of well above 100%. In this week's episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing asks Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, why China is adopting a more combative approach to Donald Trump than other countries and what that suggests about the future of the relationship. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown offers some scenarios for what might happen next with tariffs and their impact on growth across the global economy. And the team cast their eyes further ahead to discuss whether the tumult of the last couple of weeks may end up accelerating the fracturing of the global economy into US and China-aligned blocs or instead drive more former US allies closer to China.  Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: Mapping out trade war scenariosMapping out trade war scenarios | Capital EconomicsRead: China and US still in an escalatory loopChina and US still in an escalatory loop | Capital EconomicsMeet: TIM - the Capital Economics Tariff Impact Model Tariff Impact Model | Capital EconomicsWatch: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effectsDrop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects | Capital Economics

La guerra dei dazi entra nel vivo e manda a tappeto i mercati europei. La risposta cinese alle tariffe imposte da Donald Trump - con sovrattasse del 34% su tutti i beni Usa - ha infatti alzato la temperatura dello scontro commerciale. Ad acuire i timori di escalation c'è poi il fatto che il presidente americano non è arrivato alcun passo indietro («le mie politiche non cambieranno mai», ha scritto sul social Truth), nemmeno dopo la seconda giornata di forti cali registrata a Wall Street. Così, le Borse del Vecchio Continente, non solo non recuperano le forti perdite della vigilia, ma segnano tutte perdite attorno ai 4 punti percentuali. Maglia nera è Milano che, con un passivo del 6,5%, azzera quasi completamente i guadagni da inizio anno, mandando in fumo 47 miliardi di euro. «La risposta della Cina ai dazi statunitensi è aggressiva e rende altamente improbabile un accordo a breve termine" con gli Usa, spiega Capital Economics riassumendo gli umori di giornata sui mercati, con il Dragone che sembra credere che la sua economia sia "sufficientemente forte per resistere a qualsiasi attacco di Trump».La Borsa di Milano ha perso il 6,53% arretrando a 34.649 puntiHanno commentato la giornata sui mercati Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist per Spartan Capital Securities, Giulio Tremonti, deputato e presidente della commissione Affari esteri ed europei della Camera e Giulio Sapelli dell'Università Statale Milano.

At the end of one of Lenin's “weeks when decades happen”, senior economists from Capital Economics briefed clients on the implications of the news that China is retaliating aggressively to Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan, including whether Europe could follow suit and how much more pain is in store for markets. In this edited extract from that briefing, Neil Shearing, Mark Williams, Andrew Kenningham and Jonas Goltermann tackle everything from what China has just done to why the dollar has been acting strangely to what could push Brussels to fight back hard against the White House's reciprocal tariffs.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Watch: Trump's reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market's responsehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-china-retaliates-and-markets-responseRead: China hits back, hardhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-hits-back-hardRead: Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/answering-your-questions-about-liberation-day-tariffs

There's a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that's even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global macro outlook. He's joined by Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, who explains what all of this means for US markets exceptionalism.Also on this week's episode, our China Activity Proxy is our long-running proprietary read of what's really happening with Chinese economic activity. Leah Fahy from our China team is on to discuss what the latest read of this widely followed indicator says about the trajectory for Chinese growth in 2025. Analysis referenced in this episodeThe beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-update/beginning-end-us-exceptionalismGlobal Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/global-economic-outlook-trade-war-dampen-not-derail-globalData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyCAP: Weak start to the year for China's economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weak-start-year-chinas-economy

BUSINESS: Capital Economics: PH will 'struggle to fulfill' potential | Mar. 17, 2025Visit our website at https://www.manilatimes.netFollow us:Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebookInstagram - https://tmt.ph/instagramTwitter - https://tmt.ph/twitterDailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotionSubscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digitalSign up to our newsletters: https://tmt.ph/newslettersCheck out our Podcasts:Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotifyApple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcastsAmazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusicDeezer: https://tmt.ph/deezerStitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcherTune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein#TheManilaTimesVisit our website at https://www.manilatimes.netFollow us:Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebookInstagram - https://tmt.ph/instagramTwitter - https://tmt.ph/twitterDailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotionSubscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digitalSign up to our newsletters: https://tmt.ph/newslettersCheck out our Podcasts:Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotifyApple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcastsAmazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusicDeezer: https://tmt.ph/deezerStitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcherTune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein#TheManilaTimes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what's coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade strategy.China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Chief EM Economist William Jackson are also on the show to talk about the economic implications for China, Canada and Mexico, and how their governments might respond. Events referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-trump-tariffs-hit-china-mexico-and-canada-macro-and-market-implicationsChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Home sales plunge, US unemployment is set to spike, this is part of Biden's recession. Trump is now putting everything into place, 25% tariffs on the EU, reciprocal tariffs, gold card to work in this country, the countdown has begun. The [DS] can make head or tails of what Trump is doing, he is moving to fast for them, they are losing the narrative and its not even making sense to the people.In the end all people are going to see is they voting against everything that will Make America Great Again. The investigation in Comey has begun, this will lead to Clinton and Obama. Trump accelerates the plan, massive swamp draining about to happen. Nothing can stop this, nothing.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy New Home Sales Plunge In January As Mortgage Rates Spiked   , US New Home Sales were expected to decline 2.6% MoM in January data released today... and drop they did. New Home Sales puked 10.5% MoM in January (from a hugely upwardly revised December print of +8.1% from +3.6%)...   That dragged sales down 1.1% YoY... Some have argued that winter weather impacted sales... to which we retort - aren't there winter storms every year around this time of year? Maybe the analysts were stuck in rainbows and unicorn land? Source: Bloomberg   Source: zerohedge.com   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1894553047638184204   federal workers so far this year. According to Capital Economics, up to 200,000 federal staffers have likely been let go. Moreover, initial jobless claims in Washington DC have DOUBLED this year to 1,626, the highest since March 2023 and above 2008 levels. US government layoffs are here.  harshly, as if our Companies are their piggy bank. This will now end! It is my objective to level the playing field, and end these attacks. We are putting these Countries on notice to end their unfair treatment of American Companies, large and small. Our Companies are the Greatest Investors in the World, and their Investments will only go to where America is treated well. Our Ingenuity, Grit, Drive and Perseverance have built America. If these Countries want to participate in the AI Industrial Revolution, it is time to choose sides with America, not against us. https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1894519229283786825   to be able to take down trees right now. We're so restricted environmentally... We have more forests than almost anybody. We don't need anybody's trees. We don't need trees from Canada or anybody else." This is how we'll actually solve the housing affordability crisis, NOT by sending government subsidies to anyone.   creates American jobs, and protects our National Security. It's time for Copper to “come home.”    numerous new auto plants from being built in other countries, a GIGANTIC WIN (already!) FOR MICHIGAN, and the United States as a whole. Just let it all happen, and watch, it won't be even close! AMERICAN industry will thrive, and we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1894811122705777048 Trump Announces $5 Million "Gold Card" To "World-Class" Foreigners To Pay Down Deficit  President Trump announced Tuesday evening that the US will soon introduce a new green card for wealthy foreign nationals, dubbed the "gold card," which will cost $5 million and grant residency, work rights, and a pathway to citizenship. This pay-to-play legal immigration program aims to attract job creators and high-level talent, marking a stark difference to the Biden-Harris regime's open bo...

On this week's episode Damien and Andy talk about their best and worst money decisions ever. They also discuss how good and bad luck have affected their finances at various points in their lives. Most important of all, Damien explains why it's essential everyone acknowledges the good, the bad, the lucky and unlucky decisions they've made if they are to make better decisions in the future.Thank you to our sponsor LightyearThis show is sponsored by Lightyear - https://moneytothemasses.com/redir/lightyear-isa-pod, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityWatch the whole show on YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠:Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show.00:00 - Podcast Episode 49504:10 - Damien's Worst Financial Decisions06:45 - Andy's Credit Card Experience08:25 - Career Choices and Financial Missteps11:22 - Lessons Learned: The Importance of Hindsight14:03 - Andy's Property Journey17:04 - Luck vs. Hard Work in Financial Success19:51 - Damien's Mortgage Experience: Good Decisions Amidst Bad Luck21:29 - The Role of Luck in Financial Decisions24:20 - The Birth of Money to the Masses26:14 - Acknowledging Luck in Financial Journeys31:57 - Navigating Privilege and Opportunities32:39 - The Impact of Financial Decisions35:54 - Lessons from Engagement with Pensions36:29 - Some More 'Best and Worst' Financial Decisions41:19 - Reflections on Luck and Timing in FinanceFollow Money to the Masses on social media:YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners.Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us.Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the show

It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded.Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region's economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Explore: Global economic fracturinghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyDrop-In: German election 2025 – The new government's domestic and global challengeshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challengesEM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities

On this week's episode, we explain how to improve your chances of getting a mortgage. Then, we look at how you can maximise your retirement income by using a combination of annuities and drawdown. Finally, Andy highlights three websites that can help predict upcoming changes to the energy price cap before revealing that it's not too late to fix your energy tariff and avoid the likely price increases.Thank you to our sponsor LightyearThis show is sponsored by Lightyear - https://moneytothemasses.com/redir/lightyear-isa-pod, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityWatch the whole show on YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠:Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show.00:00 - Podcast Episode 49403:31 - Mortgage Preparation and Tips05:17 - Understanding Credit Reports08:07 - Managing Debt and Financial Health09:25 - Understanding Debt to Income Ratio10:15 - The Importance of Credit Utilization11:40 - Managing Old Credit Accounts12:47 - Avoiding New Lines of Credit13:31 - Social Media's Role in Mortgage Applications14:18 - Managing Overdrafts and Direct Debits15:09 - Annual Payments vs Monthly Commitments16:26 - Saving for a Mortgage Deposit17:06 - Understanding Employment History and Mortgages18:20 - Self-Employment and Mortgage Applications20:17 - The Importance of Budgeting21:12 - Working with a Mortgage Advisor22:00 - The Dangers of Misrepresentation22:49 - Maximizing Pension Income31:29 - Understanding Energy Price CapsFollow Money to the Masses on social media:YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners.Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us.Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the showLinks referred to in the podcast: Speak to a Mortgage Broker* Mortgage Comparison Tool How to find a financial adviser you can trust Energy Price Cap predicted to rise again in April What is the cheapest fixed-price energy tariff Should I fix my energy prices British Gas - Energy price cap prediction EDF - Energy price cap prediction Eon Next Energy price cap prediction

Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here. The episode's main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone's biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country's stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implicationsGerman economy post-election: from bad to not much betterhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-betterData: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitorhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitorThe slow agony of Germany's auto industryhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry

No podcast ‘Notícia No Seu Tempo’, confira em áudio as principais notícias da edição impressa do jornal ‘O Estado de S.Paulo’ desta sexta-feira (14/02/2025): O presidente Donald Trump assinou memorando com objetivo de criar taxas para as importações americanas, provenientes de todos os países, com as mesmas tarifas que são cobradas de exportadores dos EUA. A decisão aumentou os temores de que se deflagre uma guerra comercial global. A Casa Branca citou como exemplo de disparidade tarifária o etanol brasileiro. Conforme a Casa Branca, a tarifa dos EUA sobre o etanol é de 2,5%, enquanto o Brasil impõe 18%. Consultoria americana diz que Brasil e Índia seriam os países mais afetados pela medida. As novas tarifas serão impostas país por país, após estudo, e devem entrar em vigor em 2 de abril. E mais: Política: Gestão Nunes firma contratos sem licitação com empresas investigadas Metrópole: Traficante visto como elo entre PCC e PV é suspeito de matar delator Internacional: Potências europeias exigem inclusão da Ucrânia em negociações de paz Caderno 2: Sting celebra The Police e carreira soloSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode Damien provides an in-depth look at the best investment and trading apps for UK investors. He covers a range of scenarios to help listeners/viewers identify the platform that best suits their needs - whether that's a hands-off managed portfolio, a cost-conscious passive approach, or an active stock trading strategy. Next, Andy looks at the latest data from the Current Account Switching Service (CASS). He highlights the key findings, including the total number of switches in the last 12 months, as well as the banks that have seen the highest net gains and losses. Finally, Andy discusses the rising popularity of a payment method being offered by some online retailers - the 'pay by bank app' option, including the pitfalls.Thank you to our sponsor LightyearThis show is sponsored by Lightyear - https://moneytothemasses.com/redir/lightyear-isa-pod, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityWatch the whole show on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠:Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show.00:00 - Introduction to Episode 49301:30 - Interest Rate cut by 0.25% 02:37 - Best Investing and Trading Apps Overview03:48 - Checklist for Choosing Investment Apps05:15 - Investment Scenarios for Different Investor Types10:28 - Best Investing App for Hands-Off Investors and Managed Portfolios12:56 - Best Investing App for Cost-Conscious Passive Investors15:56 - Best Investing App for Socially Conscious Investors16:47 - Best Investing App for Active Stock Traders18:35 - Best Investing App for Investing in Lifetime ISAs19:16 - Best Investing App for Automating Savings and Investments21:03 - Understanding CFD Trading Risks21:28 - The Importance of Research in Investing Platforms22:10 - Current Account Switching Service Overview22:53 - Analysing Bank Switching Trends24:28 - Consumer Protection when paying onlineFollow Money to the Masses on social media:YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners.Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us.Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the showLinks referred to in the podcast:Interactive Investor reviewInvestEngine reviewAJ Bell Dodl reviewFreetrade reviewMoneyfarm reviewWealthify reviewNutmeg reviewLightyear reviewBest investing apps in the UKCheck out all our investing reviewsLatest bank switch dataBest bank account switching offers

It's been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn't happen, and the implications for macro and markets.As well as discussing the lessons learned from Donald Trump's trade actions so far, Neil reviews the latest US labour market data and talks about why Europe and the US appear to be on such divergent economic paths.Also on the episode, China Economist Leah Fahy talks to Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah about her striking new analysis which shows how China is taking market share from low-end EM manufacturers, upending a long-standing theory about how these economies industrialise in the process. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:EMs and the suspension of US aidhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-economics-update/ems-and-suspension-us-aidDrop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverginghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-inflation-watch-how-us-and-eu-inflation-paths-are-divergingCommodities Drop-In: Trump tariffs and global commodities marketshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-trump-tariffs-and-global-commodities-markets

Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this marks the beginning of a global trade war. Neil addresses the immediate economic threats to Canada and Mexico, but also explains why these tariffs end the chance of any more rate cuts from the Fed. He also discusses what further action Trump could take against US trade partners – not least China – and the broader risks to the global trading environment. For more on the Trump policy agenda and its macro implications, see this dedicated page:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term

On this week's episode, Damien discusses seven of the main behavioural biases that can affect your investment decision making and hurt your investment returns. Damien also explores crowdfunding, the potential rewards, risks and examples of crowdfunding successes and failures. Finally, Andy looks at financial planning week and the free tools and advice that are available for those wanting to sort their finances. Thank you to our sponsor Lightyear This show is sponsored by ⁠Lightyear⁠, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority Watch the whole show on YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show. 00:00 - Celebrating 15 Years of Money to the Masses 02:43 - Understanding Behavioral Biases in Investing 19:46 - Mitigating Investment Biases for Better Decisions 20:13 - Understanding Crowdfunding: An Overview 21:02 - Types of Crowdfunding Explained 23:27 - How Crowdfunding Works 24:05 - Potential Rewards of Crowdfunding 25:40 - Risks Involved in Crowdfunding 28:03 - Behavioural Biases in Crowdfunding 30:28 - Final Thoughts on Crowdfunding 30:44 - Financial Planning Week Overview 31:00 - Get a Free Financial Review Follow Money to the Masses on social media: YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners. Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us. Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the show Links referred to in the podcast: Can you solve this (YouTube video) Get a FREE Financial Review Get a FREE pension review Financial Planning Week Top 5 alternatives to Vanguard

On this week's episode, Damien discusses whether you should fix your mortgage or take out a tracker mortgage. He then talks about how to find the best travel insurance for you, including what to look for in a policy and some tips to save money. Finally, Andy revisits the 2024 weekly podcast quizzes, revealing which questions listeners struggled with the most Thank you to our sponsor Lightyear This show is sponsored by Lightyear, a new, straightforward platform offering a Stocks & Shares ISA. With no account, subscription or custody fees, Lightyear's Stocks & Shares (S&S) ISA will be 10 times cheaper than the average market provider over 10 years (based on research conducted by Capital Economics) and its Cash ISA offers easy access to the Bank of England base rate. Both accounts are flexible, so you can withdraw and re-invest without affecting your annual limit. Capital is at risk and ISA rules apply. Other fees - like foreign exchange fees - may apply. Lightyear UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority Watch the whole show on YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠on the MTTM website to see the full list of resources from this week's show. 0:00:00 - Money to the Masses Podcast Episode 491 0:03:15 - Mortgage Decision-Making: Fixed vs. Tracker Rates 0:06:39 - How mortgage rates are influenced by the Bank of England base rate 0:09:16 - Bank of England base rate predictions over the next 5 years 0:10:48 - What are the best fixed-rate mortgage rates right now? 0:11:32 - What are the best tracker mortgage rates right now? 0:11:52 - What are the best remortgage rates right now? 0:13:20 - Working out how much a mortgage rate increase will cost you when you remortgage 0:14:48 - Should I fix my mortgage? 0:15:05 - Should I go for a 2 or 5 year fix? 0:16:44 - Pros and cons of going for a fixed-rate mortgage 0:17:00 - Pros and cons of going for a tracker mortgage 0:20:08 - When should you start the process of remortgaging? 0:22:13 - What is travel insurance 0:24:43 - How to compare the best travel insurance policies 0:25:15 - How much travel insurance do you need? 0:30:00 - The best travel insurance policies for 2025 Follow Money to the Masses on social media: YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Support the podcast You can now support the MTTM podcast by visiting our  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠dedicated podcast page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠when making any financial decision. You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners. Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us. Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the show Links referred to in the podcast: ⁠⁠⁠

Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of some of what the president has pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing was on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House. Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussain from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Central Bank Hubhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hubRead: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrowhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrowEvent: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025Read: What to make of Trump's National Energy Emergency?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergencyRead: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what's known and unknown about Donald Trump's policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution.Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdownhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdownUS continues to lead the way on our AI indexhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-indexUS Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-termWhy we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025

Israel's economy has been hit by the 15-month-long war in Gaza, and its military spending has gone up significantly, according to the economic researchers at Capital Economics. We will be speaking to one of the economic analysts who did the research. The former Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, says he is running to replace Justin Trudeau as the leader of Canada's governing Liberal Party. Casting himself as an outsider with strong economic credentials, he distanced himself from the prime minister's unpopular government. And, we will look at who's planning a trip to North Korea during the northern hemisphere holiday. The country has reopened one of its border cities to foreign tourists for the first time in five years.

A grim week for bonds was capped by a stunningly hot US jobs report. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joined the first episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year to explain what these jobs numbers signal about the health of the US economy and how the Fed could respond. They also discuss the fall-out in global bond markets, including why gilts have been under particular pressure despite the Labour government's efforts to prove its fiscal bona fides with the investors.  Analysis and events referenced in this episode:UK Weekly: Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problemshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-weekly/gilt-market-not-crisis-it-does-cause-problemsChina Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbihttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-weekly-more-weakness-store-renminbiCapital Economics eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

The final Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year has Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing making sense of that December Federal Reserve meeting and explaining what the latest PCE data say about the inflation outlook and where rates are heading in 2025. He also addresses why hopes for a sweeping ‘Mar-a-Lago accord' (or 'Plaza Accord 2.0') that would tackle US-China currency imbalances are likely to be disappointed. Plus, a dramatic plunge in the value of Brazil's real shows how far investors have fallen out with Lula's spendthrift administration. In an exclusive clip from our client briefing on Brazil's crisis, William Jackson, Jason Tuvey and Jonas Goltermann discuss the real's fair value, the effectiveness of FX intervention and what the government needs to do to get investors back onside. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:The Fracturing of the Global Economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyData: Bank of England Caseometerhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/bank-england-caseometerEM Drop-In: Brazil's currency crisis – Economic and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-brazils-currency-crisis-economic-and-market-implicationsData: EM Financial Risk Indicatorshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/em-financial-risk-indicators

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing outlines the three big policy quandaries facing three big DM central banks. He unpacks the ECB's December decision, previews the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings and talks about which of these institutions faces the greatest risks in 2025.Neil also talks about whether China's policy pivot will translate into meaningful efforts to support and rebalance the economy, discusses what events in Syria say about geopolitics and the macro narrative and highlights a key risk for the coming year. Plus, following our dive into the big macro themes for 2025, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is on the show to talk about the financial markets outlook – including why we think a bubble in US equities will keep inflating over the year. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-december-meetings-and-2025-policy-outlookLatest quarterly Outlookshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/outlooksWeek-ahead Forecastshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/week-ahead-forecasts

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump's policy pledges will – and won't – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next yearhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-yearDrop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook

Tech off track for the week Bitcoin stampede finally slows. Eco data – humming along and the Fed is starting to change its tune. Guest: Jonathan Petersen, Variant Perception  NEW! DOWNLOAD THE AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES "Fiscal Sisyphus" is a term used to describe a situation where fiscal policy supports growth despite economic "gravity" dragging it down. The term refers to the Greek myth of Sisyphus, who was condemned by the gods to roll a boulder up a hill in the underworld, only to have it roll back down every time he reached the top. The myth is often used as a metaphor for the futility of life and the importance of finding joy in the present moment. Jonathan Petersen is Chief Markets Economist at Variant Perception, where he contributes to the analyst team's research on major economies and markets. He started his economics career on Vanguard's global economic research team. Following this, he helped launch and lead the currency research service at Capital Economics. Jonathan studied economics and strategic management at Boston College and earned his masters in economics at the University of Edinburgh. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy? Click HERE for the virtual tour. Stocks Mentioned in the Episode: (GLD), (BTCUSD), (AMD), (QQQ) Follow @andrewhorowitz

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect's online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsGlobal Drop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respondhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respondData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyIs a bubble in India's stock market deflating?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump's threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who'll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsCanada, China and Mexico in Trump's firing line​https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-lineDrop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing's point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia's earnings say about AI's potential. Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:London Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-overTrump and the war in Ukrainehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraineDrop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What's driving oil prices in 2025?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Topic #1: Interest.co.nz 20th of November-Independent global economic researchers Capital Economics say despite their expectation the RBNZ will slash the OCR to just 2.25% in 2025 the housing market price recovery will be 'muted'Topic #2: The Mortgage Mag 19th of November -Mortgages harder to get over the lineTopic #3: NZ Herald 19th of November -Landlord paid $4k after $40k of damage, goes to Tenancy TribunalTopic #4: Stuff 21st of November - Investors on the rebound and first home buyers still strong in sluggish marketTopic #5: RNZ 21st of November -Capital gains tax the best way to raise revenue as NZ 's population ages - TreasuryClick to book a free, no-obligation meeting with PaulClick to join a free Online or In-Person How to Succeed with Property Investing EventSupport the show*Nothing from this episode should be taken as individual financial advice. *Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump's cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy.Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets wears off, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses what lies ahead for equities, bonds and currencies. 

In episode 16 of the Alternative Allocations podcast, Kate Huntington joins Tony to discuss her years of experience partnering with family offices, endowments and foundations and how she approaches incorporating alternative investments into her clients' portfolios. They delve into the importance of due diligence and understanding the role of each asset class when working with clients to determine the best strategy for each situation. Whether it's an individual investor or large family office, often the investment thesis is the same – it's about enhanced returns, diversification, and having a long-term mindset. Kate Huntington, Managing Director, Head of Advisory Solutions Group. Kate leads the Advisory Solutions Group within Fiduciary Trust which brings comprehensive investment advisory solutions to ultra high net worth and institutional clients. Kate has an expertise in both private markets and sustainable investing and previously was the co-head of the research and manager selection team at Athena Capital Advisors. Kate's prior roles include working as a Consulting Associate at Cambridge Associates where she supported consultants in managing, advising on, and reporting on a variety of institutional clients' investment portfolios. Kate started her career as a Research Analyst at Stonebridge Associates, a real estate investment and advisory firm, and then transitioned to economic consulting with both Capital Economics and LECG, where she was an Economist/Consultant providing economic analysis and market research to support high-profile anti-trust litigation. Kate earned her Master of Business Administration from Yale School of Management and her Bachelor of Arts in economics from University of Virginia. Kate is Co-author –Diversity and Inclusion Framework, December 2019; Co-author –Investing in Gender Equality, January 2018; Co-author –Impact Investing: History & Opportunity, January 2017; Co-author –Social Finance and the Postmodern Portfolio: Theory & Practice, Journal of Wealth Management (Spring 2016). Kate currently holds the Series 7, 24 and 65 licenses and is active as a Member, Board of Trustees, Becket-Chimney Corners YMCA. Kate Huntington | LinkedIn Fiduciary Trust International Alternatives by Franklin Templeton Tony Davidow, CIMA® | LinkedIn

Ahead of the year's big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris' fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.)Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRegister Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of unionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-unionKey Issues: US election 2024https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quickerHow worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what's behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public debt in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. There's more on the UK Budget too, with a preview of what to expect from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Wednesday statement from Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory.Plus, Canada's population could shrink for the first time in over 150 years if Ottawa's stringent new immigration targets are met. That has huge implications for the country's economic outlook and for Bank of Canada policy, as Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains. Analysis referenced in this podcast:Payrolls preview: Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strengthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/temporary-disruptions-stymie-recent-strengthWill Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-focus/will-treasury-bulls-be-able-face-down-bond-vigilantesKey Issue: What to expect on UK 2024 Budget dayhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-2024-october-budgetCanada's population decline will drag down GDP growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-update/population-decline-will-drag-down-gdp-growth

Donald Trump says ‘tariff' is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That's up for debate – but what's less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, according to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He's on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss why tariffs would hurt the US economy and the economies of its key trading partners, all while failing to achieve Trump's objectives. Also on the show, Hamad Hussein from our Climate and Commodities team explains why reports of cooling electric vehicles sales in the US and Europe paint an incomplete demand picture, and what that all means for oil appetite.Plus, an exclusive extract from our post-ECB client briefing on the Governing Council's next steps – including whether its last move of the year could be a super-sized rate cut. Analysis and events referenced in this podcast:Read: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldKey Issue: US Election 2024Read: Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024Watch: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Read: Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rolloutData: Long-term Energy Scenario Generator

The S&P 500 is above 5,500 for the first time ever, but one economist says the index can hit 7,000 by next year. Capital Economics' Neil Shearing lays out his thesis. Plus, the start of summer driving season, paired with Hurricane Beryl, could have a big impact on oil prices. CIBC Private Wealth's Rebecca Babin explains. And, it could be a record year for 4th of July travel, with the TSA projecting more than 32 million people will fly during the holiday. Morgan Stanley's Stephen Grambling discusses.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is group chief economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. He is also an associate fellow at Chatham House, an International Affairs think tank. In his Capital Economics role, Neil manages a team of economists and is a well-known voice in the investment community. He has served as chief emerging markets economist and once managed Capital Economics' New York office, having joined the firm in 2006 from the United Kingdom's Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioChatham HouseWorld Economy, Globalization, and Elections“China, Inflation, Trade Wars—Your Frequently Asked Questions,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, March 4, 2024.“Maintaining Market Confidence Is Key to Managing ‘Snowballing' Public Debt,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, April 8, 2024.“Pivoting Central Bankers Must Face Down the Ghost of Arthur Burns,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 29, 2024.“Ignore the Straight-Line Forecasts. These Forces Will Shape the Global Economy to 2050,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 26, 2024.“In the China Vs. US Size Stakes, It's What You Measure That Counts,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 15, 2024.“Trump Trade Wars, Stock Market Bubbles, Japan's Market Comeback, and the World in 2050,” Capital Economics Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 15, 2024.“World Economy Is Fracturing, not Deglobalizing,” by Neal Shearing, chathamhouse.org, Feb. 8, 2023.“It's All Connected—Why Investors Can't Ignore the Global Economy's Megatrends,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Oct. 2, 2023.Artificial Intelligence“From Upbeat to Apocalyptic: Making Sense of the AI Headlines,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 22, 2024.“How to Get a Handle on AI's Many Implications for Economies and Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 10, 2023.Other“Read My Lips: No New Tax Cuts,” by Paul Ashworth, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 12, 2024.

The commercial real estate market has been faced with headwinds for years, and 2024 may not be any different. With weak growth in the sector and a high interest rate environment that has pushed the cost of ownership to new heights, the CRE space is expected to continue falling in value this year. In fact, property values could fall another 10% after falling 11% last year, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist Kiran Raichura. He sees growth softening “as the industrial rent boom gives way to more ‘normal' growth rates and apartment rents flatline,” he wrote.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The commercial real estate market has been faced with headwinds for years, and 2024 may not be any different. With weak growth in the sector and a high interest rate environment that has pushed the cost of ownership to new heights, the CRE space is expected to continue falling in value this year. In fact, property values could fall another 10% after falling 11% last year, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist Kiran Raichura. He sees growth softening “as the industrial rent boom gives way to more ‘normal' growth rates and apartment rents flatline,” he wrote.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices