Podcasts about Capital Economics

Markets at all-time highs. A closed strait. The hottest inflation prints in years. The UK government is hanging by a thread. A US-China summit that resolved precisely nothing. We ask the only question that matters right now: how long can you keep running on empty?This week's episode covers six themes that are all pointing in the same direction.What We Cover1. The Global Equity Market ParadoxThe S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index are at or near all-time highs. Oil is at $107. PPI is at a three-year high. The TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) has been embarrassingly profitable — but a new Tex-Mex metaphor has entered the chat: NACHO. Not Any Chance Hormuz Opens. Michael Green warns the equity bid is structural, not rational — and when that unwinds, there are no conventional warning signs.2. Oil Inventory Maths — The Runway Is Running OutThe IEA reports global stockpiles fell 250 million barrels in March and April alone. JP Morgan's note — The Illusion of Plenty — puts OECD inventories at operational stress levels by early June and operational floor levels by September. Capital Economics sees $130–$140/barrel as the base case if Hormuz stays shut. And even a reopening tomorrow can't fix things fast enough — mine clearance, vessel redeployment, infrastructure repair: minimum two to three months.The canary in the coal mine turned out to be in Havana. Cuba ran out of fuel entirely. The energy minister's quote: "We have absolutely no fuel oil. We have absolutely no diesel." That's the Hormuz crisis on a human scale.3. Inflation is No Longer Just About Energy US CPI: 3.8% year-on-year. PPI: 6%, the highest since December 2022. Truck freight costs up 8.1% — the biggest jump since 2009. Services inflation up 1.2% in a single month. Real average hourly earnings have turned negative for the first time since April 2023. The Bank of England's Megan Greene: "Inflation risks are entirely on the upside." The second-round effects are now landing. Global bond yields are at one-year highs.4. Kevin Warsh's Impossible New JobConfirmed 54–45 — the narrowest Senate margin since Fed chair confirmation became required in 1977. For context: Powell got 84, Yellen got 56. Warsh scraped through. On his first day as chair-elect, PPI printed at 6%. CME FedWatch now prices a 30% chance of a rate hike by year-end. His first FOMC meeting: June 16th. It may be the most consequential since Volcker walked in on August 14th, 1979. We know how that one ended.5. The UK: Where the Bond Market Is the GovernmentLabour lost nearly 1,500 council seats. Reform took 1,451 of them. Gordon Brown turned up — and when Gordon Brown is the answer, someone is asking the wrong question. Wes Streeting walked into Downing Street. 94 MPs publicly called for Starmer to go. Andy Burnham booked his return ticket. The pound had its worst week since November 2024. The 30-year gilt sits near 5.7% — above every developed world peer. Bloomberg Economics estimates the May yield move alone adds £2 billion to the UK debt interest bill. Gilt traders are underweight. The market is now pricing the worst-case scenario for bonds — and Andy Burnham is it.6. The Summit That Resolved NothingYMCA played at the state banquet. Xi promised Trump rose seeds. Jensen Huang boarded Air Force One in Alaska. Boeing was promised 200 jets — the market expected 500; Boeing fell 4%. Xi made clear Taiwan is the most important issue in US-China relations and that independence is "fundamentally incompatible with peace." Trump didn't answer when asked about it. The $14 billion arms package for Taipei remains unsigned. China called the Iran conflict one that "should never have happened" — diplomatic code for neutrality, unless major concessions materialise elsewhere. Like Taiwan, perhaps.As Gerard Baker put it in The Times, this is the first time in nearly a century that an American president met another power's leader on equal terms. Trump came seeking help, not making demands.The Bottom LineInflation has moved beyond energy into services and freight. The UK bond market is delivering daily verdicts on a government in freefall. Oil inventory maths has weeks of runway left. The summit didn't deliver on Iran. Hormuz is being normalised under Iranian control — not reopened. Equities are at records. Something is going to break. The question is what, when, and whether Kevin Warsh has any idea what's walking toward him on June 16th.Jackson Browne told us in 1977: "I'm running on empty, and I'm running blind."People & Institutions ReferencedMichael Green · Michael Burry · Jensen Huang · Kevin Warsh · Paul Volcker · Keir Starmer · Andy Burnham · Wes Streeting · Angela Rayner · Gordon Brown · Kemi Badenoch · Nigel Farage · Megan Greene (Bank of England) · Jim Lee (EIU) · Gerard Baker · Donald Trump · Xi Jinping · Saudi Aramco CEO · JP Morgan · IEA · Capital Economics · CME FedWatch · TD Securities · Morgan Stanley · Bloomberg EconomicsSponsorFinance Talking — specialist financial training for capital markets, business finance, and communications. Clients include Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. Virtual, in-person, and e-learning options available. Please tell them Jeremy sent you.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.Keywordsoil price crisis · Strait of Hormuz · US inflation CPI PPI 2025 · Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve · UK gilt crisis · UK Labour leadership crisis · Andy Burnham · Trump Xi summit Beijing · equity market all-time highs · TACO trade NACHO trade · Michael Green passive investing · oil inventory IEA · Jackson Browne running on empty · macro investing podcast · active investor podcast · capital markets 2025Subscribe & FollowIn the Company of Mavericks — helping serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and find new ways to grow wealth in radically uncertain times.⚠️ Nothing in this episode constitutes investment advice. For information and entertainment only. You are responsible for your own financial decisions.

Chris Murray is joined by economist John Phelan to break down the ongoing migration trend from “blue states” to “red states.” Phelan, a graduate of Birkbeck College, University of London and the London School of Economics, brings a mix of academic insight and real-world experience, including a decade in finance and time with Capital Economics. The conversation dives into why Americans are relocating in large numbers, with a focus on economic factors like taxes, cost of living, and government regulation. Phelan explains how policy differences between states are shaping these migration patterns—and what it could mean for local economies and future political landscapes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The AI hype cycle shows no sign of slowing. But how much are the hundreds of billions in investment actually boosting economies, and when will that spending translate into meaningful productivity gains?In this episode, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood discusses her new report, 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?', the latest addition to Capital Economics' analysis of AI's global impact. In conversation with David Wilder, she separates hype from reality, covering: Which economies are benefiting most from the global AI build-out  Why recent US productivity gains are evidence of AI's impact  If the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt the AI rollout  Whether fears of an AI-driven jobs apocalypse are justified  What the Citrini note gets wrong about AI's macro impactRead 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?': https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-deeply-ai-taking-hold-economy

Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the global economy, while a more adverse outcome could tip it into outright recession.Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory explains why gilts have been the hardest hit among G10 government bonds as tensions have escalated. She explores the sharp shift in expectations for Bank of England policy and the underlying fiscal vulnerabilities fuelling market anxiety – including the risk of a change in government leadership.Read our latest Global Economic Outlook: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1

Der DAX geht mit einem Minus von 2,0 % bei 22.385 Punkten schwach ins Wochenende. Am großen Verfallstag, dem sogenannten Hexensabbat, sorgten auslaufende Optionen und Futures für teils kräftige Kursbewegungen. Der EuroStoxx50 verlor 1,7 % auf 5.518 Punkte. Im DAX hielten sich Heidelberg Materials mit +3,2 % und Infineon mit +1,5 % vergleichsweise gut, SAP gab 3,9 % nach. Aufmerksamkeit bekam auch das Börsendebüt von Vincorion: erster Kurs 19,30 Euro, später 18,63 Euro, nach einem Ausgabepreis von 17 Euro. Unter den Einzelwerten sprang Gerresheimer nach Übernahmespekulationen um fast 15 % auf 20,38 Euro. Elmos gewann 10,4 % nach einem Reuters-Bericht über einen möglichen Verkauf. Auf der Verliererseite brach Bechtle nach dem Ausblick für 2026 um 16,3 % auf 25,10 Euro ein. Im Rohstoffteil fällt Gold trotz Krisenlage um 0,8 %. Capital Economics sieht den Preis bis Ende 2026 bei 3.500 USD je Feinunze.

News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy?Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios to assess how oil and gas supplies and prices could evolve as the conflict unfolds, and what this might mean for global growth, inflation, central bank policy and financial markets.In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing:Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how our scenarios map out potential paths for oil and gas supply and prices, depending on the duration of the conflict and the extent of damage to production and infrastructure.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains how these scenarios could translate into different growth and inflation outcomes globally, and what they might mean for central bank policy — including what to expect from the upcoming meetings of the Fed, Bank of England, ECB and Bank of Japan.Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explores how financial markets could respond, how far prices might rebound in the event of a ceasefire, and which trades may never fully recover.Explore all our coverage of the conflict, including our scenarios here: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictInterested in trial access? Email us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com

The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now?Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal ruling for the US economy, for Federal Reserve policy and for financial markets. In their conversation with David Wilder, Stephen and Jonas address key issues, including:How the White House could rebuild its tariff regime – and rebuild it quicklyWhat happens when billions of dollars in tariff refunds flow back into US company accounts Why signs of resurgent inflationary pressures are narrowing the room for Fed rate cutsHow the bond market is responding to the Supreme Court newsWhy the stock market rally has stalled, and whether this news could get it going again.Related readingIEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2%https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economics-weekly/ieepa-ruling-unlikely-pull-pce-inflation-back-2Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble aheadhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/stock-market-rotation-warning-trouble-aheadSC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegalhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-rapid-response/sc-rules-trumps-ieepa-tariffs-are-illegal

This weekend's Japanese election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in years. As Sanae Takaichi, newly installed leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, seeks to cement her mandate, government bond yields and the yen have been moving in opposite directions amid headlines warning of plans to open the fiscal floodgates.But are markets really responding to fears of runaway spending, or to the reality that Japan is finally emerging from decades of deflation? Capital Economics' Head of Asia-Pacific, Marcel Thieliant, and Head of Asia-Pacific Markets, Thomas Mathews, join the show to unpack what the return of inflation means for the Japanese economy, for the Bank of Japan, for government bonds and for the outcome of this weekend's vote.Also on the show: a new US-India deal to slash eye-watering reciprocal tariff rates is the latest in a flurry of trade agreements from the Modi administration. Shilan Shah, our India research lead, explains what these deals mean for India's economic outlook – and whether the country can truly wean itself off Russian oil.Read our key analysis about the return of inflation to Japan's economy.For Capital Economics clients: Japan Drop-In: Takaichi's election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences

Can you pitch yourself as a responsible global stakeholder at the same time as running a $1.2 trillion trade surplus? That's China's big global macro play, and it's one that Neil Shearing thinks China is going to struggle to pull off. The Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics is on The Weekly Briefing to explain what that mammoth trade imbalance means for advanced and emerging economies in a fracturing global economy, including why some EMs are doing quite well as a result of all of the geoeconomic ructions.Also on the show, there's an awful lot of noise around the race for AI leadership between the US and China, but how to separate out the hype from the reality? China Economist Leah Fahy's new report sizes up the progress that Chinese AI has made since the launch of DeepSeek a year ago, and the impact that Beijing's race for tech supremacy will have on the country's economic outlook.Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026China's AI rollout could rival the USDrop-In: The shape of the fractured world in 2026The economic and market impact of AI

In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown outline Capital Economics' expectations for 2026.They tackle the key drivers and risks in the year ahead, examining how the AI narrative will unfold, why the US will be a notable outperformer, how much further China's exporters can take market share and why a new Fed chair probably won't deliver the rate cuts that Donald Trump wants.Learn more: The World in 2026 homepage

The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wilder to what has – and hasn't – changed in the European outlook.They explore Europe's challenges in navigating an increasingly fractured global economy, including whether its industries are equipped to handle competitive pressures from the US and China, the risks stemming from elevated public debt, and why the urgency to ramp up defence spending isn't being met by action.Plus, in a clip from a recent client briefing, EM economists Liam Peach and William Jackson provide an update on the war in Ukraine and the latest White House efforts to broker a ceasefire.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeDrop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlookSpotlight: The future of EuropeRead: ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growthWatch: China and Russia – The limits of the “no limits” partnershipRead: Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits

Where is the big macro payoff from the surge in artificial intelligence investment? And is AI wiping out entry-level jobs? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics unpacks these questions and examines what this new wave of technology really means for growth and labour markets.The episode also marks the reopening of the US government with a clear assessment of the economic outlook, and explores how fiscal risks are disrupting politics across the US and Europe. These pressures are set to shape policy debates well into 2026.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRead: How to think about AI investmentRead: Has the AI “jobpocalypse” begun?Read: China summer investment slump likely to be short-livedWatch: EM Drop-In: India at the geo-economic crossroadsCapital Economics events

The world isn't deglobalising, it's fracturing – splitting into US and China blocs, along manufacturing, technological, and financial lines. Paul speaks to Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. Paul and Neil talk about what the hyper-globalisation consensus that economic interdependence was stabilising got wrong, how the return of superpower rivalry will force other countries to pick a side, and the ways investors can navigate this new economic and geopolitical environment.

Who was Rachel Reeves really speaking to when she hinted at higher taxes this week? How much of a threat is the Supreme Court to Treasury tariff revenues? And how useful is “G2” as a lens for the new global order? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks these big global macro questions in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. Also on the show, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins assesses whether this week's sell-off marks the end of the great AI-driven US equity boom, or was just a wobble on the way to new highs.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRead: UK Autumn Budget 2025 PreviewRead: How could the Budget influence UK housing?Drop-In: India at the geo-economic crossroadsDrop-In: Commercial Property Outlook - What to watch out for in 2026Read: Reliance on tech is a double-edged swordRead: What to make of the mixed reaction to this week's big-tech results

Out of the darkness of a shuttered US government comes a rare data release – and it's a CPI report that's given markets some relief as the week draws to a close. But does September's inflation data really clear the way for Fed rate cuts in December as well as October, as investors now expect?In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the Fed is likely to stay cautious, previews key upcoming central bank meetings, and looks ahead to next week's much-anticipated Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit in South Korea.Also on the show, the US Treasury's new sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil exporters have brought a key risk to our below-consensus oil price forecasts to the fore. Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how much this move could shake up the outlook – and whether Trump will actually follow through with full enforcement.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: China ramping up use of export controlsDrop-In: Argentina's mid-term elections – A referendum on Milei's reformsDrop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook

Trade Splaining is back! After a summer break (and one new baby later), Ardi and Rob return to make sense of what's changed — and what hasn't — in global trade, business, and expat life. From the latest round of tariffs and China's “pivot” away from developing-country status at the WTO, to why AI might be the next big trade disruptor, we break down the stories shaping the global economy in 2025. We're also joined by Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age, to unpack how geopolitical rivalries are reshaping globalization — or maybe just rearranging it. In This Episode:

Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age, argues hyper-globalization is giving way to a world split into US- and China-centric blocs, reshaping trade, technology, and security. He explains why de-risking will likely be concentrated in strategic sectors (chips, batteries, biotech), bringing more volatile inflation and new portfolio implications—from being cautious on China exposure to watching critical minerals and long-run AI-driven U.S. tech.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In just a few days, US–China relations have taken a troubling turn. How did we go from the goodwill of the London and Madrid bilaterals to the current war of words, the threats and the counter-threats? Is this simply pre-APEC brinkmanship, or the start of a more fundamental breakdown in relations between Washington and Beijing? And how great are the risks of a miscalculation that spills over into the global economy? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard discuss the past, present and future of US–China relations. They explore key questions, including:• What's driving Beijing's new controls on rare earths, and whether the government could reverse course• What's wrong with US perceptions of China's economic health – and why those perceptions could prove dangerous • How the global economy will need to keep adjusting to a fracturing US-China relationshipAnalysis referenced in this episodeThe fracturing of the Global EconomyUS may revive plans to curb financial ties with ChinaGlobal Economics Outlook: US leads, others lag, in uneven global economyCAP: Economy holding up, but growth remains weakChina's push for innovation is not lifting productivity

We may be seeing peace break out in the Middle East, but it's still trade war elsewhere - especially with China. Donald Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on the rival superpower if Beijing goes through with its plan to impose tough restrictions on exports of the rare earth minerals critical to the U.S. economy. These could well be mere negotiating tactics but they're a reminder of the wider friction that now dominates global economic relations.   On this episode of Free Expression, Gerry Baker speaks with Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics and author of “The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy.” They discuss Shearing's argument that the world is dividing into two giant economic blocs and what that might mean for stability and peace. They also talk about some unusual developments in global markets of late, especially a weakening dollar and a soaring gold price - the last of which Shearing believes is driven by Chinese official policy.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of The New Abnormal podcast, I interview Neil Shearing, the Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, where he leads a world-class team of economists and oversees the firm's global research agenda. A trusted voice in international finance, Neil is known for his clear, insightful analysis of the global economy - insights that regularly feature in the Financial Times and other major publications, as well as on TV and radio.Earlier in his career, he served as an Economic Adviser at HM Treasury, working on fiscal policy and global economics.In the interview, we discuss his new book 'The Fractured Age' in which he describes how the tectonic plates of the global order are shifting, creating new pressures that will strain long-standing financial structures. Neil explains where the world's new economic fault lines will emerge, and how disruptive they'll be...

It's a widely held assumption that US President Donald Trump has put globalisation into reverse. But Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy, tells the FT's world trade editor Peter Foster that Trump's policies are a symptom and not the cause of the global trading system unravelling. They discuss how economic rivalry between the US and China is reshaping world trade – and where it might lead.Peter Foster is the FT's world trade editor. You can read his articles hereBook your FT Weekend Festival tickets hereSubscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen.Presented by Peter Foster. Produced by Josh Gabert-Doyon. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and sound design by Samantha Giovinco and Breen Turner.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and the author of a new book, The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. In addition to managing a team of economists and serving as a voice in the investment community, Neil is an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank. He joined Capital Economics in 2006 from the United Kingdom's Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioThe Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global EconomyChatham House“Neil Shearing: What You Might Be Missing About the Current Economy,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 16, 2024.Global Economic Fracturing, Tariffs, and AI“America or China? As the Global Economy Fractures, the World Will Have to Choose,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 14, 2025.“Trump, Institutions, and the Deafening Silence of the Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 6, 2025.“Chinese Overcapacity Is a Disinflationary Gift and a Geopolitical Threat,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 21, 2025.“Fiscal Stability Is Now as Much About People as Policy,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 14, 2025.“This Trade War Is the Symptom—Global Fracturing Is the Cause,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 7, 2025.“'Tariff Man' Returns, US-China Diverging Price Risks—and Is AI Triggering a Jobs Bloodbath?” The Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, July 11, 2025.“Chip Choke: What Happens if China Throttles Taiwan's Economy,” by Neil Shearing, afr.com, April 26, 2025.OtherHuaweiSmoot-Hawley Tariff ActBIS Triennial Central Bank Survey“America's Biggest Rare-Earth Producer Makes a Play to End China's Dominance,” by Jon Emont, wsj.com, July 15, 2025.

US tariffs are seen as broadly inflationary at home and disinflationary abroad, so countries across Asia – where central banks have already begun a cycle of easing – face increased pressure on economic growth and prices. The levies loom at a time when China is mired in deflation, and Japan is trying to reinflate prices that are also weak in other Asian economies. Should investors be worried about disinflation across the region? How will that influence central bank decisions? And does it complicate the path forward for Japan's policymakers? Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, joins John and Katia to discuss China's overcapacity, the government's failure to address the issue, how it could export deflation to the region, and Japan's success at engineering price growth.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in question. What does his return mean for the trajectory of this fracturing, and how has the balance of risks evolved?In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explore the fracturing of the global economy. Ahead of the publication of fresh analysis about how fracturing has developed since Trump's return, they talk to David Wilder about how this process began long before the president was elected in 2016,  how it's accelerating under his second term and where it might lead. Topics covered in this 30-minute episode include:The inevitability of US–China economic rivalry – and the scope for détenteHow fracturing is fuelling a global tech arms raceWhether Trump's unilateralism could further strain or even break Western alliances.Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Fracturing under Trump – Register now:Singapore, 3rd SeptemberHong Kong, 4th SeptemberLondon, 17th SeptemberNew York, 9th OctoberRead: The fracturing of the global economyRead: The US, China and the Fractured Age

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including:What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day' tariff pause approaches expiryWhether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in timeWhy China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreementWhat's really troubling about the passage of Trump's “big, beautiful” tax billWhat moves in gilt and sterling markets this week revealed about the UK Labour Party's fiscal credibilityAlso on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis discusses her new in-depth report on the outlook for global trade amid rising tariffs. She explains why her forecasts challenge the narrative of deglobalisation and also shares highlights from our latest Global Economic Outlook, including China's looming slowdown and India's relative outperformance.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Data: China-US Trade ReroutingData: Tariff Impact ModelRead: What do tariffs mean for global trade?Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor

A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there's less to see with that US-China deal and those divisions on the FOMC. Also on the show, BYD and DeepSeek may be in the spotlight, but their rise reflects deeper structural flaws in China's economy. They're a sign of economic success, but also of the growing distortions in the government's industrial strategy – weaknesses that are increasingly evident in China's dismal productivity data. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams has been delving into the details of Xi Jinping's industrial roadmap and the productivity data to tell David what this all says about China's economic outlook.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: China's push for innovation is not lifting productivityRoundtable: One year on: Is the UK government boosting growth?Read: Fed independence not a concern for markets, yetRead: APAC Commercial Property Outlook: Values to fall as region's markets struggle to recoverData: APAC Commercial Property

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I'm Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Dr. Paul Ashworth. Paul serves as Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics. He joined the London-based research firm in 2001 from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research after taking degrees in economics and mathematics at Strathclyde and Warwick in the United Kingdom and completing a Ph.D. in monetary policy. In 2010, Paul was named Wall Street Journal Forecaster of the Year.BackgroundBioCapital Economics“Ashworth Tops Economy Survey,” by Justin Lahart, wsj.com, Feb. 7, 2011.Tariffs, Trade, and Inflation“Trump Tariffs Get to Stay in Place for Now. What Happens Next?” by Peter Hoskins and Yang Tian, bbc.com, May 30, 2025.“Economists Welcome U.S.-U.K. Agreement for Signal Rather Than Substance,” by Harriet Torry, wsj.com, May 8, 2025.“This Economist Thinks the Tariff Pause Could Be Permanent,” by Hannah Erin Lang, wsj.com, April 9, 2025.“Consumer Sentiment Darkens Further With Inflation Worries Rising,” by Chao Deng, wsj.com, May 16, 2025.Other“Why Trump Decided Not to Try to Fire Jerome Powell,” by Brian Schwartz, Josh Dawsey, and Nick Timiraos, wsj.com, April 23, 2025.“The Weekly Briefing: AI's Productivity Boom, Central Bank Rhetoric vs Reality, Recession Risk and More,” A Capital Economics podcast, Sept. 22, 2023.

Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks. John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, is also on the show to talk about the financial markets angle to this turnaround in global sentiment. He sees more upside for US equities, even after the notable gains of recent weeks, and isn't convinced that investors have set themselves up for a fall. Plus, following the launch of our ‘Future of Europe' series, Franziska Palmas discuss how Germany's economic outlook is looking a bit more optimistic, but also why the bloc's biggest economy will continue to struggle – and what that means for boosters of the idea of the EU becoming a third geo-economic pillar alongside the US and China. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Global Trade Stress MonitorCapital Daily: US big tech is back … but not at China's expenseCapital Daily: Back to the future?Capital Economics EventsData: Global Markets ForecastsThe Future of Europe

China y Estados Unidos iniciaron este miércoles 14 de mayo una tregua comercial de tres meses, en la que se acordó que rebajarán en 115 puntos porcentuales los aranceles cruzados de las últimas semanas. La escalada arancelaria se produjo en medio de las presiones de Donald Trump y las medidas recíprocas tomadas por Xi Jinping. Con esta tregua, ¿quién pierde el pulso? Beijing y Washington anunciaron un acuerdo para rebajar mutuamente los aranceles impuestos en las últimas semanas.De esa forma, y por 90 días, China reducirá del 125% al 10% los aranceles sobre productos estadounidenses; mientras que EE. UU. los bajará del 145% al 30% para los bienes chinos.El pacto, que da un respiro al comercio global y las economías de las dos potencias, tiene lugar en medio de una guerra arancelaria emprendida por Donald Trump.Aunque, tradicionalmente, el tema comercial ha servido como principal factor disuasorio para evitar otros conflictos entre estos dos grandes rivales, la escalada de las últimas semanas ha disparado el nerviosismo de los mercados y presionado al comercio global. Aunque la reacción de Beijing ha sido discreta, analistas consideran que la economía china ha sacado ventaja de la guerra arancelaria."La retirada de aranceles supone una clara reivindicación de la postura calculada y proporcionada de Beijing a la hora de responder a las acciones comerciales de la Administración Trump", según un informe de la firma de análisis Trivium China.En contraste, según el economista jefe para Asia de la consultora británica Capital Economics, Mark Williams, la tregua “es otro paso atrás en la postura agresiva de la Administración Trump”, especialmente porque el Gobierno de Xi se ha mantenido firme, sin ceder a las demandas de Washington. Leer tambiénTregua comercial entre China y EE. UU. impulsa al yuan y mercados, pero persiste cautela entre inversores La gran pregunta es qué hay detrás del acuerdo para reducir los aranceles.¿Por qué la Casa Blanca ablandó su discurso? ¿Qué tanto aprovechó China para redoblar sus vínculos comerciales con otros países? Para analizar el tema, participan en El Debate dos invitados.- Desde Santiago, Andrés Bórquez, investigador de El Núcleo Milenio sobre Impactos de China en América Latina.- En Lima, Carlos Aquino, director del Centro de Estudios Asiáticos y docente de Economía Asiática en la Universidad Nacional San Marcos.

One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come.In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard unpack what was actually agreed between the US and UK, and look ahead to this weekend's pivotal US-China negotiations in Switzerland.Julian discusses the outlook for China's exports following their remarkable post-pandemic surge and considers what further stimulus measures might be on the cards. Neil assesses the broader state of global trade ahead of the looming expiration of Donald Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff pause.Neil also offers a preview of our major upcoming series on the future of Europe – an in-depth project that cuts through the recent optimism to deliver clear-headed analysis, robust data, and compelling presentations.Events and analysis referenced in this episodeThe Future of EuropeData: Tariff Impact ModelData: China Labour Market Indicator

If you're looking for evidence of the negative hit from Donald Trump's tariffs, you'll struggle to find it in the hard data. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics minutes after the release of the US employment report for April to talk about how economies have been holding up in the weeks since the ‘Liberation Day' announcement. In his conversation with David Wilder, he addresses the key issues of the moment, including:What Q1 US GDP data and port data aren't telling us about the negative hit to impact on economies from tariffs;Whether markets have become too complacent about the tariffs impact;How the tariffs threat will influence the Federal Reserve and Bank of England at their meetings in the coming week.Plus, ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting on Monday, David Oxley and Olivia Cross from our Commodities & Climate desk talk about what recent signals from Saudi officials could mean for already-weak oil prices. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: The Fed, Bank of England and ECB – Making sense of the latest rate decisionsData: Central Bank HubDrop-In: Which economies could gain if the US turns away from China?Read: Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports?Drop-In: The future of OPEC+, oil prices and the Gulf

Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to assess whether there has been a fundamental improvement in the outlook, or if this is a case of investors smoking too much “hopium”. In a wide ranging chat, they discuss:What the latest economic data suggest about the impact of higher tariffs;The chances that the US and China engage enough to get a deal done;Whether King Dollar could be overthrown – and the risks of a dollar crash. Events and analysis referenced in this episodeRecording: Is the dollar's global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-dollars-global-dominance-casualty-tariff-chaosANZ Drop-In: Australia's election, RBA easing and the economic outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/anz-drop-australias-election-rba-easing-and-economic-outlookDrop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump's second term so farhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-100-days-economic-impact-trumps-second-term-so-far

Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump's chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including:What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” endsWhy we think US growth risks have risen but we still don't expect a recession How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflationWhat curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty If there's a US-China trade deal to be doneAnalysis referenced in this episode:Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhereRead: Is China offloading its dollar assets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assetsData: Tariff Impact Model (TIM)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threathttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threatRead: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025

As the dust settles after another of week of dramatic policy shifts, the picture that has emerged is a familiar one from Trump's first term: China is the main target after all. China isn't taking Trump's tariffs lying down. Instead, it has hit back tariff for tariff so that both sides are now applying tariffs to each others' goods of well above 100%. In this week's episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing asks Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, why China is adopting a more combative approach to Donald Trump than other countries and what that suggests about the future of the relationship. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown offers some scenarios for what might happen next with tariffs and their impact on growth across the global economy. And the team cast their eyes further ahead to discuss whether the tumult of the last couple of weeks may end up accelerating the fracturing of the global economy into US and China-aligned blocs or instead drive more former US allies closer to China.  Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: Mapping out trade war scenariosMapping out trade war scenarios | Capital EconomicsRead: China and US still in an escalatory loopChina and US still in an escalatory loop | Capital EconomicsMeet: TIM - the Capital Economics Tariff Impact Model Tariff Impact Model | Capital EconomicsWatch: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effectsDrop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects | Capital Economics

La guerra dei dazi entra nel vivo e manda a tappeto i mercati europei. La risposta cinese alle tariffe imposte da Donald Trump - con sovrattasse del 34% su tutti i beni Usa - ha infatti alzato la temperatura dello scontro commerciale. Ad acuire i timori di escalation c'è poi il fatto che il presidente americano non è arrivato alcun passo indietro («le mie politiche non cambieranno mai», ha scritto sul social Truth), nemmeno dopo la seconda giornata di forti cali registrata a Wall Street. Così, le Borse del Vecchio Continente, non solo non recuperano le forti perdite della vigilia, ma segnano tutte perdite attorno ai 4 punti percentuali. Maglia nera è Milano che, con un passivo del 6,5%, azzera quasi completamente i guadagni da inizio anno, mandando in fumo 47 miliardi di euro. «La risposta della Cina ai dazi statunitensi è aggressiva e rende altamente improbabile un accordo a breve termine" con gli Usa, spiega Capital Economics riassumendo gli umori di giornata sui mercati, con il Dragone che sembra credere che la sua economia sia "sufficientemente forte per resistere a qualsiasi attacco di Trump».La Borsa di Milano ha perso il 6,53% arretrando a 34.649 puntiHanno commentato la giornata sui mercati Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist per Spartan Capital Securities, Giulio Tremonti, deputato e presidente della commissione Affari esteri ed europei della Camera e Giulio Sapelli dell'Università Statale Milano.

At the end of one of Lenin's “weeks when decades happen”, senior economists from Capital Economics briefed clients on the implications of the news that China is retaliating aggressively to Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan, including whether Europe could follow suit and how much more pain is in store for markets. In this edited extract from that briefing, Neil Shearing, Mark Williams, Andrew Kenningham and Jonas Goltermann tackle everything from what China has just done to why the dollar has been acting strangely to what could push Brussels to fight back hard against the White House's reciprocal tariffs.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Watch: Trump's reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market's responsehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-china-retaliates-and-markets-responseRead: China hits back, hardhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-hits-back-hardRead: Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/answering-your-questions-about-liberation-day-tariffs

There's a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that's even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global macro outlook. He's joined by Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, who explains what all of this means for US markets exceptionalism.Also on this week's episode, our China Activity Proxy is our long-running proprietary read of what's really happening with Chinese economic activity. Leah Fahy from our China team is on to discuss what the latest read of this widely followed indicator says about the trajectory for Chinese growth in 2025. Analysis referenced in this episodeThe beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-update/beginning-end-us-exceptionalismGlobal Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/global-economic-outlook-trade-war-dampen-not-derail-globalData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyCAP: Weak start to the year for China's economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weak-start-year-chinas-economy

BUSINESS: Capital Economics: PH will 'struggle to fulfill' potential | Mar. 17, 2025Visit our website at https://www.manilatimes.netFollow us:Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebookInstagram - https://tmt.ph/instagramTwitter - https://tmt.ph/twitterDailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotionSubscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digitalSign up to our newsletters: https://tmt.ph/newslettersCheck out our Podcasts:Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotifyApple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcastsAmazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusicDeezer: https://tmt.ph/deezerStitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcherTune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein#TheManilaTimesVisit our website at https://www.manilatimes.netFollow us:Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebookInstagram - https://tmt.ph/instagramTwitter - https://tmt.ph/twitterDailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotionSubscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digitalSign up to our newsletters: https://tmt.ph/newslettersCheck out our Podcasts:Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotifyApple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcastsAmazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusicDeezer: https://tmt.ph/deezerStitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcherTune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein#TheManilaTimes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what's coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade strategy.China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Chief EM Economist William Jackson are also on the show to talk about the economic implications for China, Canada and Mexico, and how their governments might respond. Events referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-trump-tariffs-hit-china-mexico-and-canada-macro-and-market-implicationsChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Home sales plunge, US unemployment is set to spike, this is part of Biden's recession. Trump is now putting everything into place, 25% tariffs on the EU, reciprocal tariffs, gold card to work in this country, the countdown has begun. The [DS] can make head or tails of what Trump is doing, he is moving to fast for them, they are losing the narrative and its not even making sense to the people.In the end all people are going to see is they voting against everything that will Make America Great Again. The investigation in Comey has begun, this will lead to Clinton and Obama. Trump accelerates the plan, massive swamp draining about to happen. Nothing can stop this, nothing.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy New Home Sales Plunge In January As Mortgage Rates Spiked   , US New Home Sales were expected to decline 2.6% MoM in January data released today... and drop they did. New Home Sales puked 10.5% MoM in January (from a hugely upwardly revised December print of +8.1% from +3.6%)...   That dragged sales down 1.1% YoY... Some have argued that winter weather impacted sales... to which we retort - aren't there winter storms every year around this time of year? Maybe the analysts were stuck in rainbows and unicorn land? Source: Bloomberg   Source: zerohedge.com   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1894553047638184204   federal workers so far this year. According to Capital Economics, up to 200,000 federal staffers have likely been let go. Moreover, initial jobless claims in Washington DC have DOUBLED this year to 1,626, the highest since March 2023 and above 2008 levels. US government layoffs are here.  harshly, as if our Companies are their piggy bank. This will now end! It is my objective to level the playing field, and end these attacks. We are putting these Countries on notice to end their unfair treatment of American Companies, large and small. Our Companies are the Greatest Investors in the World, and their Investments will only go to where America is treated well. Our Ingenuity, Grit, Drive and Perseverance have built America. If these Countries want to participate in the AI Industrial Revolution, it is time to choose sides with America, not against us. https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1894519229283786825   to be able to take down trees right now. We're so restricted environmentally... We have more forests than almost anybody. We don't need anybody's trees. We don't need trees from Canada or anybody else." This is how we'll actually solve the housing affordability crisis, NOT by sending government subsidies to anyone.   creates American jobs, and protects our National Security. It's time for Copper to “come home.”    numerous new auto plants from being built in other countries, a GIGANTIC WIN (already!) FOR MICHIGAN, and the United States as a whole. Just let it all happen, and watch, it won't be even close! AMERICAN industry will thrive, and we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1894811122705777048 Trump Announces $5 Million "Gold Card" To "World-Class" Foreigners To Pay Down Deficit  President Trump announced Tuesday evening that the US will soon introduce a new green card for wealthy foreign nationals, dubbed the "gold card," which will cost $5 million and grant residency, work rights, and a pathway to citizenship. This pay-to-play legal immigration program aims to attract job creators and high-level talent, marking a stark difference to the Biden-Harris regime's open bo...

It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded.Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region's economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Explore: Global economic fracturinghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyDrop-In: German election 2025 – The new government's domestic and global challengeshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challengesEM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities

Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here. The episode's main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone's biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country's stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implicationsGerman economy post-election: from bad to not much betterhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-betterData: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitorhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitorThe slow agony of Germany's auto industryhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry

Israel's economy has been hit by the 15-month-long war in Gaza, and its military spending has gone up significantly, according to the economic researchers at Capital Economics. We will be speaking to one of the economic analysts who did the research. The former Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, says he is running to replace Justin Trudeau as the leader of Canada's governing Liberal Party. Casting himself as an outsider with strong economic credentials, he distanced himself from the prime minister's unpopular government. And, we will look at who's planning a trip to North Korea during the northern hemisphere holiday. The country has reopened one of its border cities to foreign tourists for the first time in five years.

Tech off track for the week Bitcoin stampede finally slows. Eco data – humming along and the Fed is starting to change its tune. Guest: Jonathan Petersen, Variant Perception  NEW! DOWNLOAD THE AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES "Fiscal Sisyphus" is a term used to describe a situation where fiscal policy supports growth despite economic "gravity" dragging it down. The term refers to the Greek myth of Sisyphus, who was condemned by the gods to roll a boulder up a hill in the underworld, only to have it roll back down every time he reached the top. The myth is often used as a metaphor for the futility of life and the importance of finding joy in the present moment. Jonathan Petersen is Chief Markets Economist at Variant Perception, where he contributes to the analyst team's research on major economies and markets. He started his economics career on Vanguard's global economic research team. Following this, he helped launch and lead the currency research service at Capital Economics. Jonathan studied economics and strategic management at Boston College and earned his masters in economics at the University of Edinburgh. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy? Click HERE for the virtual tour. Stocks Mentioned in the Episode: (GLD), (BTCUSD), (AMD), (QQQ) Follow @andrewhorowitz

In episode 16 of the Alternative Allocations podcast, Kate Huntington joins Tony to discuss her years of experience partnering with family offices, endowments and foundations and how she approaches incorporating alternative investments into her clients' portfolios. They delve into the importance of due diligence and understanding the role of each asset class when working with clients to determine the best strategy for each situation. Whether it's an individual investor or large family office, often the investment thesis is the same – it's about enhanced returns, diversification, and having a long-term mindset. Kate Huntington, Managing Director, Head of Advisory Solutions Group. Kate leads the Advisory Solutions Group within Fiduciary Trust which brings comprehensive investment advisory solutions to ultra high net worth and institutional clients. Kate has an expertise in both private markets and sustainable investing and previously was the co-head of the research and manager selection team at Athena Capital Advisors. Kate's prior roles include working as a Consulting Associate at Cambridge Associates where she supported consultants in managing, advising on, and reporting on a variety of institutional clients' investment portfolios. Kate started her career as a Research Analyst at Stonebridge Associates, a real estate investment and advisory firm, and then transitioned to economic consulting with both Capital Economics and LECG, where she was an Economist/Consultant providing economic analysis and market research to support high-profile anti-trust litigation. Kate earned her Master of Business Administration from Yale School of Management and her Bachelor of Arts in economics from University of Virginia. Kate is Co-author –Diversity and Inclusion Framework, December 2019; Co-author –Investing in Gender Equality, January 2018; Co-author –Impact Investing: History & Opportunity, January 2017; Co-author –Social Finance and the Postmodern Portfolio: Theory & Practice, Journal of Wealth Management (Spring 2016). Kate currently holds the Series 7, 24 and 65 licenses and is active as a Member, Board of Trustees, Becket-Chimney Corners YMCA. Kate Huntington | LinkedIn Fiduciary Trust International Alternatives by Franklin Templeton Tony Davidow, CIMA® | LinkedIn

The S&P 500 is above 5,500 for the first time ever, but one economist says the index can hit 7,000 by next year. Capital Economics' Neil Shearing lays out his thesis. Plus, the start of summer driving season, paired with Hurricane Beryl, could have a big impact on oil prices. CIBC Private Wealth's Rebecca Babin explains. And, it could be a record year for 4th of July travel, with the TSA projecting more than 32 million people will fly during the holiday. Morgan Stanley's Stephen Grambling discusses.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is group chief economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. He is also an associate fellow at Chatham House, an International Affairs think tank. In his Capital Economics role, Neil manages a team of economists and is a well-known voice in the investment community. He has served as chief emerging markets economist and once managed Capital Economics' New York office, having joined the firm in 2006 from the United Kingdom's Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioChatham HouseWorld Economy, Globalization, and Elections“China, Inflation, Trade Wars—Your Frequently Asked Questions,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, March 4, 2024.“Maintaining Market Confidence Is Key to Managing ‘Snowballing' Public Debt,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, April 8, 2024.“Pivoting Central Bankers Must Face Down the Ghost of Arthur Burns,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 29, 2024.“Ignore the Straight-Line Forecasts. These Forces Will Shape the Global Economy to 2050,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 26, 2024.“In the China Vs. US Size Stakes, It's What You Measure That Counts,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 15, 2024.“Trump Trade Wars, Stock Market Bubbles, Japan's Market Comeback, and the World in 2050,” Capital Economics Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 15, 2024.“World Economy Is Fracturing, not Deglobalizing,” by Neal Shearing, chathamhouse.org, Feb. 8, 2023.“It's All Connected—Why Investors Can't Ignore the Global Economy's Megatrends,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Oct. 2, 2023.Artificial Intelligence“From Upbeat to Apocalyptic: Making Sense of the AI Headlines,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 22, 2024.“How to Get a Handle on AI's Many Implications for Economies and Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 10, 2023.Other“Read My Lips: No New Tax Cuts,” by Paul Ashworth, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 12, 2024.

The commercial real estate market has been faced with headwinds for years, and 2024 may not be any different. With weak growth in the sector and a high interest rate environment that has pushed the cost of ownership to new heights, the CRE space is expected to continue falling in value this year. In fact, property values could fall another 10% after falling 11% last year, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist Kiran Raichura. He sees growth softening “as the industrial rent boom gives way to more ‘normal' growth rates and apartment rents flatline,” he wrote.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The commercial real estate market has been faced with headwinds for years, and 2024 may not be any different. With weak growth in the sector and a high interest rate environment that has pushed the cost of ownership to new heights, the CRE space is expected to continue falling in value this year. In fact, property values could fall another 10% after falling 11% last year, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist Kiran Raichura. He sees growth softening “as the industrial rent boom gives way to more ‘normal' growth rates and apartment rents flatline,” he wrote.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We learn Apple considered swapping Google's search engine for Microsoft Bing. And London's Capital Economics assessed which countries will benefit most from AI technologies. And Google announced support for an extended flag in websites robots.txt file to exclude sites from being used to train Google's AI models.It's Friday! Who Am I? - GDI 4615 It takes a village. Are you ready for another “Who Am I”? So many tough clues. Is there a bell? Why is it not 0? How is your knowledge of literary persons? Sarah is just winging it. Who would be Disney adjacent and also a spy? Sarah was so close. So many passes. How weird are Duke people? Is Roger punking the hosts? How many language apps can you list? Tristan shares some robots.txt stories. Starring Tom Merritt, Sarah Lane, Tristan Jutras, Roger Chang, Joe.Link to the Show Notes. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/dtns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.