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On the 1st of January 2024, the copyright for the original 'Steamboat Willie' character of Mickey Mouse is due to enter the public domain. Felicity Hannah finds out what it means when iconic intellectual property goes public.As fashion looks for a sustainability fix, the boss of second-hand clothing app Vinted explains what he sees as the future of the sector.And, with speculation that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee could cut interest rates as early as March, we find out what that could mean for the mortgage market.
Paul and Luke speak to Michael Saunders, former external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, about the UK economy and the Bank's track record.
The Biden administration has undertaken an aggressive effort to revitalize domestic manufacturing, particularly in areas like semiconductors and green technology. The reasons are manifold. The pandemic exposed frailties in the supply chain. Climate concerns have accelerated the urgency around the energy transition. And anxiety about growing Chinese dominance in key areas (such as batteries) has heightened geopolitical concerns. So now, day after day, we see spates of announcements of new factories being opened up in these areas. But what are the risks and dangers to this approach? On this episode of the podcast, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee who now serves as president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He warns that the basic logic for this domestic industrial policy is misguided and based on a faulty understanding of domestic economic dynamics. He also says that we're taking a wrong and dangerous approach to dealing with perceived competitive threats from China.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A position on the Chancellor's Economic Council is akin to being appointed to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee but without the responsibility. The role of the Council is to “second guess” the MPC and make theoretical judgements on monetary policy, but without the responsibility that those decisions have in the “real world"".” At its latest meeting, the Council, which is made up of seven members including former Bank of England Committee and Karen Ward, Chief Economic Strategist at Investment Bank J.P. Morgan, counselled against further rate hikes for fear that they will push the economy into recession. Ward was also quoted recently as saying she believes that the MPC may be using a mild recession as a deliberate strategy to bring down inflation. However, that was coupled with another comment that no blame can be attached to the Bank for “simply doing its job.” Those two comments illustrate the futility of appointing a shadow MPC which can make pronouncements, often with the benefit of hindsight, without the responsibility of how they affect the lives of real people. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
Adam Posen isn't ruling out the Bank of England pushing UK interest rates as high as 7%.The president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Posen says the 6.25% rate investors have priced in for the end of 2023 is the level he's been predicting for the past year. “The fact that the inflation is proving more persistent,” he says, just means “they'll have to go higher.”Joining David Merritt and Francine Lacqua on this week's In the City, Posen says that—both in terms of policy and communication—the Bank of England got it wrong repeatedly throughout 2022 and into 2023. He also gives his take on the UK mortgage market meltdown—which he says doesn't warrant a bailout. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Silvana Tenreyro has been an independent member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee since August 2017. Over that time, she has “grown into” her role as its most dovish member. In her final speech as a member of the committee, she spoke of her concern that if the Central Bank continues to hike rates, it will drive inflation to below the Government's target of 2%. She believes that the economy has suffered an external shock as energy prices climbed over the past eighteen months, and while it was correct to hike rates through 2022, the hikes that have taken place over the past few months run the risk of being “counterproductive”. This is the type of radical thinking that looks beyond the “norm,” that several MPs believe should be encouraged by having fewer Bank of England employees on the MPC and more independents. Members of Parliament believe that the current makeup of the committee runs the risk of adopting “groupthink,” in which they vote as a bloc, thus negating the role of the independent members. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
Paul talks to Professor Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and co-author of ‘Restarting the Future: How to fix the intangible economy', and Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the intangible economy. The economy increasingly consists of ideas, brands, and relationships. This shift from “stuff” to intangibles has wide-ranging implications for productivity, competition, inequality, and how policymakers should manage the modern economy.
Felicity Evans and James Williams discuss how the new leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth MS, will approach the challenges facing his party with Plaid MP Ben Lake and former Plaid MP and family friend Elfyn Llwyd. Fliss and James also discuss the latest inflation figures and what they may mean for interest rates ahead of the monthly meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee
Jonathan Haskel, an independent member of The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee spoke yesterday of his view that interest rates will have to rise from their current level of 4.5% if inflation is to be brought under control. Haskel went on to say that his personal view is that the risks to the economy are skewed towards inflation. It is likely that he was influenced by recent predictions that the country will just about avoid a recession this year, while the prices have failed to stabilize completely. “Although our present circumstances are far from ideal, embedded inflation would be far worse”, Haskel went on to say. His MPC colleagues Swati Dhingra and the Bank's Governor, Andrew Bailey will speak later. Bailey will appear before the Parliamentary Economic Affairs Committee, while Dhingra will be speaking to students at the Manchester Metropolitan University. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has voted to raise interest rates from 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent. This has caused debate among economists, with some arguing that continuing high inflation necessitates a further rates hike, while others point to the reversal of quantitative easing as evidence for a more cautious approach. To discuss this, IEA Director of Public Policy and Communications Matthew Lesh spoke to IEA Economics Fellow and member of the IEA's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) Julian Jessop. The SMPC's response to the interest rates rise can be read here: https://iea.org.uk/media/dont-raise-interest-rates-says-shadow-monetary-policy-committee/
As the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee prepares to announce its latest decision on interest rates, Sean Farrington asks where the interest rate might go and how much it can do to tame inflation. Online fashion retailer ASOS has reported losses in its latest results - what does this mean for the once-booming retailer? And the second Eurovision semi-final is taking place in Liverpool - we hear from a local hospitality owner to find out if the buzz is good for business.
Silvana Tenreyro is the most dovish independent member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. She has voted for interest rates to remain unchanged at the last two meetings of the committee. Yesterday, she spoke of her view that the Central Bank may need to cut interest rates earlier than has been previously forecast in order to avoid what she called a significant inflation overshoot. She believes that as the full effect of previous rate hikes are fully felt, they will drag down the economy, raising the spectre of a recession. Last month, the MPC voted to raise rates for the 11th consecutive meeting, raising the base rate to 4.25%. It is widely felt that the Bank will raise interest rates by a quarter of a percent at its next meeting on May11th, and then announce a pause in hikes. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
Danny Blanchflower is a Professor of Economics and was a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. In our conversation for this week's podcast, he's both gloomy about the economic future — and optimistic if there's a bold government that recognises the value of investment. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to send in your questions for Tuesday's podcast at steveric14@icloud.com! Rock & Roll Politics is live: Witham, Barnard Castle, April 1st: https://thewitham.org.uk/event/steve-richards-rock-and-roll-politics-2/ Old Market Theatre, Brighton. April 24th: https://www.theoldmarket.com/shows/steve-richards-rock-n-roll-politics-2023 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
At last week's meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, there was a significant shift in the Bank's view of inflation. While they still hiked interest rates, for the eleventh consecutive time, to 4.25%, the highest they have been in fourteen years, there was a lowering of expectations for inflation that will be reflected in its Quarterly Economic review that will be published later today. While in the recent past the bank has hoped that inflation will be falling by Autumn, members of the MPC now believe that it will have fallen to close to its target of 2% by the end of the third quarter. Interest rates are expected to peak at 4.50% with a hike at the next meeting due to be held on May 11th expected to be the last in the current cycle. It remains to be seen whether Andrew Bailey will announce this as a policy change, or whether he will remain cautious by continuing to say that the committee is driven by the data. Committee members have for several meetings expressed their individual reasons for why they voted as they have. The most definitive views have been provided by the independent members. There was a danger that Catherine Mann, Silvana Tenreyro, and Swati Dhingra were going to use the MPC as an exercise in economic theory, since the fourth independent member, Jonathan Haskell tends to be seen as in step with the Bank of England's in-house views. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, “Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order.” Tucker tells Jack Farley that China's growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S.' role as global hegemon, and he details ways to reinvigorate international cooperation during the current period of geopolitical strife. Tucker shares his views on the recent turmoil in the banking system, weighing on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the acute need for bank resolution that can maintain financial stability while winding down ailing banks. Tucker and Farley also discuss concepts such as the Triffin Dilemma, the offshore (“Eurodollar”) dollar system, and central banks' role as lenders of last resort. __ “Global Discord” from Princeton Press: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229317/global-discord Global Discord on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Global-Discord-Values-Power-Fractured/dp/0691229317 __ About Paul Tucker: http://paultucker.me/resources/ About Tucker's work at The Harvard Kennedy School: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/fellows/research-fellows#sir_paul_tucker More about today's guest: For over thirty years, Sir Paul Tucker was a central banker, and a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee from 2002. He was Deputy Governor from 2009 to late 2013, including serving on the Financial Policy Committee (vice chair) and Prudential Regulatory Authority Board (vice chair). He was knighted by Britain in 2014 for his services to central banking. Internationally, he was a member of the steering committee of the G20 Financial Stability Board, and chaired its Committee on the Resolution of Cross-Border Banks to solve “too big to fail”. Tucker was a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and was chair of the Basel Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems from April 2012. After leaving central banking, Tucker was chair of the Systemic Risk Council from December 2015 to August 2021. He now writes at the intersection of political economy and political philosophy as research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In addition to “Global Discord,” Tucker is also the author of “ Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State” (2018). __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:55) The Rise Of China Will Have Immense Consequences On A Global Scale (04:44) Shortcomings of Trade Policy and Enforcement (10:41) Downsides of U.S.' Trade Deficit (20:18) The Bretton Woods Regime (21:59) The Triffin Dilemma (26:32) The Eurodollar System (27:31) The Fed's Swap Lines In 2008 (28:49) Importance of Multi-Disciplinary Understanding For Policymakers (31:17) The Debt Ceiling (21:27) Thucydides' Trap (25:57) The Contest Between China and The U.S. Is "Everywhere" (39:26) Document 9 of The Chinese Communist Party (45:29) Inflation (49:37) Regional Bank Failure In The U.S. (55:43) The Takeover Of Credit Suisse By UBS (01:02:49) Defining A "Bailout" As A Use Of Taxpayer Money (01:07:09) Bagehot's Dictum (01:15:31) Credit Suisse Contingent Convertible ("CoCo") Bonds (01:17:55) Tying Geopolitical And Banking Together __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Economics of Sustainable Food: Smart Policies for Health and the Planet! Author of The Economics of Sustainable Food: Smart Policies for Health and the Planet. Nicoletta Batini is the Lead Evaluator of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Independent Evaluation Office. Prior to the IMF, she was Advisor of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Professor of Economics at the University of Surrey, and Director of the International Economics and Policy Office of the Treasury in Italy. She holds a Ph.D. in international finance (S.S.S.U.P. S. Anna) and a Ph.D. in monetary economics (University of Oxford). Today her research focuses on the economics of energy and land and sea use transitions for climate mitigation. Her new book “The Economics of Sustainable Food: Smart Policies for People and the Planet” was just published by Island Press and the International Monetary Fund.
New figures from the Office of National Statistics show that the UK has managed to avoid a recession. Inflation is slowing, but the UK has not managed to reach the levels of growth needed for pay increases. On Thursday, as AstraZeneca announced it had opted to build a new factory in Dublin rather than in Macclesfield, its CEO said '"you need an environment that gives you good returns and incentive to invest". Today's Nick Robinson spoke to Dame Deanne Julius, former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, and Julian Metcalfe, CEO of Itsu, about what the UK government needs to do to increase economic growth. Martha Kearney spoke to the BBC's Business Editor Simon Jack and Richard Torbett, CEO of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry, about why AstraZeneca chose to invest outside the UK and what the government can do to make the UK more attractive to investors. Image Credit : By: Neil Hall Credit :EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock Location :London, United Kingdom Copyright: Copyright (c) 2023 Shutterstock. No use without permission.
The UK's budget crisis last September led to a plunge in the value of the pound, the sacking of the Chancellor of the Exchequer after 39 days in office, and a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister. These events highlight how fiscal policies can have wide-spread political and economic consequences. As the U.S. Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner, what lessons might U.S. policy-makers draw from the British experience? How does failure to raise the debt ceiling affect faith in U.S. Treasury debt? And what are the rammifications of eroding trust in U.S. debt? Adam Posen joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Adam is the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He served seven terms as an advisor to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, and a three-year term on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will conclude its final meeting of the year later this morning, having raised short-term interest rates at every meeting in a year that has seen inflation continue to rise to a level that has not been seen in a generation. The Economy has been hit with a perfect storm of factors that have often been out of the control of the Central Bank, but history will decide if the actions that have been taken have been sufficient. The exponential increase in the wholesale price of gas, the war in Ukraine and shortages of several basic foodstuffs have seen inflation test the mettle of the committee members, some of whom, in spite of raging inflation, have shown misplaced concern about the effect of higher rates on economic growth. The replacement of arch inflation-hawk Michael Saunders with the clearly more dovish Swati Dhingra, has changed the market's perception of the seriousness of the Committee's inflation fighting credentials. In the two meetings that have been held that she has participated in, she has voted for a hike in rates that is lower than what has finally been agreed. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
Catherine Mann has been a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee for over a year now and has begun to flex her hawkish muscles. Over the past few meetings, she has voted for interest rates rises more than what has eventually been agreed. Yesterday, she spoke of her fear that the Central Bank is losing its fight to bring down inflation to its 2% target. She spoke of her concern that the target that is set by the Government could become unattainable as the global moves into a new phase as the era of accommodative interest rates ended. She sees that inflation is now becoming embedded in the UK economy, with the increasing level of industrial action threatening both fiscal and monetary stability. There has been a significant increase in the level of inflation in the services sector. Pre-Covid, inflation in this area of the economy was running at well below 2%. It is now above 3%. Mann was at the forefront of the call to initially front-load rate increases to get ahead of the threat of rising inflation. This was not considered a workable proposition since it could drive the economy into recession. Mann believed at the time that this was a risk worth taking, but her colleagues disagreed. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
Since the government's tax-cutting mini-budget last week, the pound has hit record lows against the dollar, mortgage providers have pulled hundreds of products and there has been damning criticism from the International Monetary Fund and an emergency intervention by the Bank of England. Critics have accused Liz Truss, the prime minister, and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, of being “economically illiterate”. On the Sky News Daily, Niall Paterson looks at the economic arguments and the market reaction. He's joined by Sky News business presenter Ian King, Martin Weale, a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, and Jane Foley, a senior strategist at Rabobank. Producers: Soila Apparicio and Emma Rae Woodhouse Interviews Producer: Alys Bowen Podcast Promotion Producer: David Chipakupaku Editors: Philly Beaumont and Paul Stanworth
Andrew Sentance, former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, now Senior Adviser to Cambridge Econometrics, says it's up to members of the MPC to safeguard the bank's independence in the face of increased scrutiny by the Treasury. He tells Bloomberg's Stephen Carroll and Dani Burger he sees the Bank of England continuing to hike interest rates, with neutral rates around 4% in the first quarter of 2023. Sentance says the UK has the borrowing capacity to tide the economy over a difficult period, if the spending on energy turns out to be a temporary measure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Matt Chorley explores how inflation is crippling the world. He hears from Times Correspondents Charles Bremner, Jane Flanagan, Bernard Lagan, Oliver Moody and Alistair Dawber. He also speaks to Daniel Tidemann from the Danish newspaper Berlingske and Andrew Sentance, Former Member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.PLUS Danny Finkelstein and David Aaronovitch discuss serving in a rival leadership candidate's cabinet and flying. Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has been meeting and will announce its decision on short term interest rates at lunchtime today. It is probable, but by no means certain, that the decision will be to hike by fifty basis points. Almost as important as the decision on interest rates will be the release of the Bank's projections for the economy. This will provide advance guidance to the markets about the Bank's expectations for growth and inflation over the rest of the third quarter. The most recent monetary policy summary predicted that inflation could reach 11%, but there is a real possibility that that will be revised upwards, possibly to as high as 15%. Were that to be the case, the Bank would be certain to continue to raise rates. That does seem to be an extreme view, particularly with the price of petrol having fallen recently. However, with Ofgem, the energy regulator, stating recently that the estimates for the rise in the energy cap in October are likely to be revised upwards, a further significant rise in inflation should not be discounted.
It has become very convenient for Brexiteers, now renamed Rejoiners, to blame the current slowdown in the economy on Brexit. That position doesn't consider that first the EU economy is suffering at least as much as the UK currently and, in any event, two of the most serious issues, energy shortages and supply chain issues that include transport of foodstuffs from Ukraine have no basis in Brexit. Furthermore, it is only a matter of time before the European Union begins to pressure EU members who are not Eurozone members to either join or leave. Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, decided to use a speech she made last week. To broach the subject of inflation becoming embedded in the economy. With Railway workers striking to support wage demands and other industries also considering industrial action, Mann may be right that inflation fuelling wage increases are set to be a significant factor in the Bank's considerations going forward. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
The knowledge economy. Intellectual property. Software. Maybe even bitcoin. All pretty much intangible, and yet all clearly real and genuinely valuable. This is the realm where economist Jonathan Haskel of Imperial College London mints his own non-physical scholarship. “In the old days,” relates the co-author of Capitalism without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy, “the assets of companies, the sort of secret sauce by which companies would generate their incomes and do their services for which they're employed for, was very tangible-based. These would be companies with lots of machines, these would be companies with oil tankers, with buildings, with vehicles to transport things around. Nowadays, companies like Google, like Microsoft, like LinkedIn, just look very different.” And that difference, he explains to interviewer David Edmonds in this Social Science Bites podcast, is knowledge. “What they have is knowledge,” says Haskel, “and it's knowledge assets, these intangible assets, which these companies are deploying.” Intangible investments, as you might expect, have different properties than do tangible ones. Haskel dubbed them the four S's: Scale. Once you have a handle on a successful intangible, like software, that can generally scale up without more capital spending; Sunk Costs. These are invested costs you can't get back, such as the costs of developing software; Spillovers. Aspects of your intangibles that others can copy or adopt for themselves; and Synergies. “If you put all these intangibles together,” he explains, “you get more than the sum of the parts.” Meanwhile, intangibles help keep modern economies humming – we think. “Accountants and statistical agencies are quite reluctant to measure intangibles because it's -- intangible. It's a rather difficult thing to get at; these are often goods that aren't traded from one person to another …” Part of Haskel's research effort is to quantify how much investment in intangibles is going on “behind the scenes,” which fits in with other interests of his such as re-engineering how gross domestic product gets measured. Businesses are now spending more on intangibles then on tangibles: Haskel's work reveals that for every monetary unit companies spend on tangible assets, they spend 1.15 on intangible ones. In addition to serving as a professor at the Imperial College Business School, Haskel is director of the Doctoral Programme at the Imperial. He is an elected member of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth and a research associate of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, the Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, and the IZA, Bonn. Haskel has been a non-executive director of the UK Statistics Authority since 2016 and an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee since 2019.
Michael Saunders has built a reputation during his time as a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee for being particularly hawkish about tackling inflation. He was something of a lone voice last summer when he voiced his concern over rising inflation. At that time, he was considered to be akin to the boy who cried wolf given the expectations being promoted around growth. He was the first to spot the effect that rising energy prices would have on inflation and how emergence from the pandemic may unbalance the economy. Yesterday, Saunders spoke of his continued concerns over rising inflation and how he believes that the country is not prepared for it to become embedded in the national psyche, a phenomenon that has been absent for close to forty years. Historically, Inflation is seen as a by-product of wage demands made by militant trade unionists prior to the Thatcher years but the reality of today's economy is vastly different. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
It is still almost certain that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will agree to a fourth hike in the current cycle to curb the rise in inflation when it meets this week. This is despite further warnings of an approaching recession from the institute of Directors. The cost-of-living crisis is leading to crumbling consumer confidence which, in turn, is hitting retail sales, while uncertainty caused by the conflict in Ukraine is affecting the availability of several products in stores. The Institute's own measure of economic confidence plummeted from -4 to -36 in the most recent period. This is in measure of the IoD's members investment intentions over the next year. One of the major factors in the lead up to any recession in the UK since the 1970s has been a significant fall in the level of business investment as Directors switch from expansive to protective mode. At this week's meeting, it is likely that the Bank's Governor Andrew Bailey will move to dampen market concerns over the level that rates will eventually reach. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
Andrew Sentance, former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, speaks to Neil Williams, OMFIF's chief economist, on the 25th anniversary of the MPC. With the committee a ‘quarter century not out', Sentance shares his experience of being one of the more outspoken members. While covering the MPC's numerous runs scored since 1997, he also navigates the dropped catches and the strategy needed to make the next 25 years even more impressive.
"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise interest rates by 0.25% at its latest meeting, which concluded yesterday. The committee voted by a majority of 8-1 in favour of the hike. The only dissenting voice was that of Sir Jon Cunliffe, the Bank's deputy Governor for financial stability. The focus of the Central bank has switched latterly to fighting inflation despite the threat that the conflict in Ukraine brings fears of a slowdown in economic activity. In its latest economic forecasts published last month, the Bank predicted that inflation would peak at 7.25% next month. That expectation has already been changed, and a peak of 8% has become the core expectation. However, despite the Bank's view, market analysts are raining their expectations almost weekly and have now reached 10%. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, spoke yesterday of the collective responsibility of the committee to carefully consider changes to interest rates considering the volatility of the financial markets due primarily but not exclusively to the conflict in Ukraine. Tenreyro believes that the Central Bank was already facing some tough decisions even before Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine. With the economy yet to completely recover from the Coronavirus Pandemic, there is a real chance inflation is set to rise further. The Bank, already having hiked interest rates at its two most recent meetings, is now expected to hike again this week as the MPC reacts to the balance of risks. Andrew Bailey, the Bank's Governor, spoke last year of his desire as the economy emerged from the pandemic that the MPC would be able to keep control and not be driven by events. It was on track to achieve that goal with consecutive hikes. However, the conflict has blown that desire off course. Inflation is still well above target and is expected to rise further, the economy is slowing, and the population faces further pressure on household budgets driven by two major negative factors due to take effect next month. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets this week, and rather unsurprisingly, the meeting has, yet again, been labelled as crucial. Ask just about any market commentator, and you will receive a different answer about what the Central Bank needs to do this week. On the face of it, there are just two options; hike or pause. That is obvious, but behind the decision is the MPC member's views on what is important to a ensure that the Committee adheres to its goal to support price stability, while boosting growth If the vote is for another hike this week, it will go some way towards presenting a tough stance on rising inflation but will dent the prospect of GDP recovering and reaching its expected level in 2022. If the MPC decides to pause, having hiked at the last two meetings, the economy will receive a boost, but inflation will be in danger of getting out of control. As far as inflation goes, the bank could allow price rises to continue while their source remains on the supply side of the economy. It will only be when a wages/prices spiral begins. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"Roman Abramovich is by far the most prominent Russian Oligarch in the UK due to his ownership of Chelsea Football Club. Abramovich has always admitted to his friendship with the Russian President but denies being one of his inner circle. Yesterday, the UK Government made the decision that it believes that Putin and Abramovich have a close relationship, and along with six other wealthy and influential Oligarchs Abramovich was subjected to stringent sanctions. Abramovich had already put the football club up for sale, but the sanctions will mean that the sale will be put on hold or, at least, any transfer of ownership will be done on the Government's terms. The sanctions include a ban of purchases or sales of players, the sale of merchandise and tickets for games only being available if they have already been sold. While in the grand scheme, this is not an important move, it symbolizes the Government's determination to make life as difficult as possible for those who benefit either in status or financially from their relationship to the Russian leader. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will meet next week not only to decide on any change in monetary policy, but it will also deliver its latest review of the UK economy. The only question about the review is just how downbeat it is likely to be. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"Tackling inflation remains the number one priority for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, since it was forced to accept that rising prices were unlikely to return to the Bank's 2% target without changes to monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was one of several central bankers who jumped on the bandwagon of labelling rising inflation as transitory and that it would return to acceptable levels once the logjam in supply chains had abated. The continued rise in the wholesale price of gas, exacerbated by tensions around Russia's border with Ukraine, and global shortages of microchips have been major contributors to rising inflation. This week, the MPC will have a decision to make that was expected to be relatively easy before the New Year. Rate hikes at consecutive meetings were, and in many; observer's minds, remain the likely outcome of the meeting on Thursday. This would be the first time in eighteen years that the Bank of England has hiked at consecutive meetings. However, various headwinds are growing that could easily blow the nascent recovery off course. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will meet at the end of next week, and it is highly likely that they will decide to hike interest rates for the second time in successive meetings. The consequences of the committee's relaxed attitude to ring inflation last year are now being felt throughout the economy. Andrew Bailey when asked about rising inflation was certain that the rise was transitory and would fade as soon as the economy was fully open again. While Bailey was one of the more sanguine Central Bank Heads, the fact that once he had come to terms with the fact that inflation was not going away but actually continuing to rise, he was then accused of misleading the markets by pre-empting a vote. He was fairly certain that there would be a hike agreed at the November meeting, only for his colleagues to vote to maintain rates at 0.1%. The fact that the Committee voted in Favour of a hike at the December meeting, the timing of which was unusual in itself underlined the fact that they got it wrong in November. There is no doubt that the advent of the Omicron Variant of Coronavirus created uncertainty, particularly as the scientific community continually warned about its consequences. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
They finally did it! The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee raised the base rate from its emergency 0.1% level to 0.25%. That came the day after inflation rocketed to 5.1 per cent - and is forecast to keep rising - and in the week that the International Monetary Fund warned the Bank of England against 'inaction bias'. Markets were cheered by the rate rise and economists were broadly welcoming too, yet the general consensus is that it will make little difference to the inflation Britain is suffering. So, why raise interest rates and was this the right move as the nation stares down the barrel of yet more (potentially overcooked) Covid disruption? On this week's podcast, Georgie Frost, Tanya Jefferies and Simon Lambert delve into the rate rise, ask whether it was the right move but maybe for the wrong reason, and look at why inflation is soaring and when it may abate. The team also discuss how this will affect ordinary people and whether it will add to the cost of living squeeze hitting everywhere from the petrol pump, to your heating and the supermarket aisles. Tanya gives an update on delayed state pension cases and her investigations into this and whether the generation in their late 40s will have to wait longer to retire. And finally, it's nearly Christmas and frantic present buying is the order of the day, but if you were going to give a financial gift to a child would you give Premium Bonds, shares or bitcoin?
The Federal Reserve slows the pace of its monthly bond purchases and signals three rate hikes next year. The FED says it will taper its bond purchasing programme by 30 billion dollars per month, putting it on pace to end its pandemic status by March. It intends to raise rates as many as 8 times by 2024 while keeping its fund rate at record lows. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will meet today to decide whether to increase interest rates and tighten conditions. This comes amid a recent inflation surge and deepening fears over the Omicron variant. We also look toward the ECB's delivery of its latest policy decision amid challenges of soaring inflation and rising covid rates.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Nicoletta Batini is a Lead Evaluator at the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF, and she has covered different roles since joining the Fund. She is a leading expert in the design of macroeconomic strategies to deal with the climate change/public health nexus, focusing on land use and food systems. She is also the author of The Economics of Sustainable Food, published by Island Press and IMF. Previously, she was Advisor of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Professor of Economics at the University of Surrey, and Director of the International Economics and Policy Office of the Treasury in Italy. In the episode, she describes the actual cost of food for people and the planet. And the solutions.
"When the first two lockdowns were introduced, the Government was heavily criticized for dithering and not being decisive in its actions. As concerns grow that the Omicron variant could be more resistant to vaccines than anything that has come before, there are questions about whether the actions that have been taken so far have been driven by panic and fear rather than considered scientific reasons. The country is still some way away from locking down, as has been seen in several European nations, and it will still be a few weeks before the true situation is known. The travel sector had just been able to start to look forward to 2022 with some sense of optimism when the requirement for travellers to undertake a PCR test before returning to the UK and there are thousands of Christmas getaways that have already been cancelled. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee faces a far trickier task at its meeting next week than it had originally expected. According to the Bank's Chief Economist, the burden of proof rested with those who want to leave rates unchanged. Huw Pill voted to leave rates unchanged at last month's meeting but was leaning towards a hike last week. Now that looks less likely. However, if the Omicron variant is proven to be similar in makeup to the Delta variant, there could easily be an intra-meeting hike agreed next week, although the bank is unlikely to confirm such a measure. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"A rise in interest rates at the next meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee moved from Likely to probable yesterday as inflation data for October was released. Headline inflation rose to a ten-year high of 4.2%. With the wholesale price of gas and other household bills rising, this is not expected to be the end of rising inflation, and the pressure on the bank to act has ramped up. Household utility prices rose by 6.8% last month, while there were significant increases in most other sectors. Month on month, inflation rose by 1.1%, its highest monthly increase since 1993. Andrew Bailey, the Bank's Governor, spoke on Tuesday of the attention being paid to the employment data, but he must now be concerned that the next round of wage negotiations are going to be difficult and could lead to a more generalized increase in inflation. With the ECB indefinitely on hold and the Federal Reserve unlikely to tighten until it has completed the withdrawal of additional support, the odds on the UK being the first of the major economies to hike interest rates will have fallen dramatically. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
On this week's episode, Brenda interviews Nicoletta Batini editor of The Economics of Sustainable Food and lead evaluator of the International Monetary Fund Office of Independent Evaluation.ABOUT THE ECONOMICS OF SUSTAINABLE FOODThe Economics of Sustainable Food is a new Island Press book edited by economist Nicoletta Batini. Producing food industrially like we do today causes tremendous global economic losses in terms of malnutrition, diseases, and environmental degradation. But because the food industry does not bear those costs and the price tag for these losses does not show up at the grocery store, it is too often ignored by economists and policymakers.The Economics of Sustainable Food details the true cost of food for people and the planet. It illustrates how to transform our broken system, alleviating its severe financial and human burden. The key is smart macroeconomic policy that moves us toward methods that protect the environment like regenerative land and sea farming, low-impact urban farming, and alternative protein farming, and toward healthy diets. The book's multidisciplinary team of authors lay out detailed fiscal and trade policies, as well as structural reforms, to achieve those goals. Visit the book's webpage for additional info.ABOUT NICOLETTA BATININicoletta Batini is an Italian economist, notable as a scholar of innovative monetary and fiscal policy practices. She pioneered work on the dangers of fiscal austerity and on how to curb debt successfully during financial deleveraging. Prior to the IMF, she was Advisor of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Professor of Economics at the University of Surrey, and Director of the International Economics and Policy Office of the Treasury in Italy. She has handled extensive consultancy roles internationally. She holds a Ph.D. in international finance (Scuola Superiore S. Anna) and a Ph.D. in monetary economics.SUBSCRIBEWant to be notified when new video Food & Justice episodes are released? You can subscribe via your favorite video platforms and podcast apps here. Subscribing is free!PAST EPISODESHave you watched Food & Justice's first six episodes yet? You can find them along with additional information on our guests and links to their organizations here.SOCIAL MEDIALike, share, and retweet! Facebook * Twitter * Instagram * LinkedInBECOME A PATRONFood & Justice welcome your financial support! Help us to produce content that informs and inspires action week after week! You can visit Brenda's Patreon page to support her work on the show and other food justice projects.VOLUNTEERVolunteers are needed to help spread the word about the show on social media, other podcasts, newspapers and news websites and more. If you'd like to help, send an email with your contact information to info @ fjpodcast . com (no spaces)Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/BrendaSanders)
"Members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favour of leaving short-term interest rates at the historically low level of 0.1% at their meeting, which concluded yesterday. The two members who voted for a hike were David Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Banking and Markets, who is concerned about what he calls rampant wage demands over the next few years and Michael Saunders. Saunders is a perennial hawk who believes that the level of support being provided to the economy risks fuelling expectations of higher inflation. The vote to hold fire on any rate increase came despite the Bank's latest forecast for medium term inflation, showing that price increases could reach 5% by next April. At his press conference following the meeting, Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey commented that it is not the job of the MPC to act in accordance with market expectation. In that regard, Bailey is being compared to his predecessor, Mark Carney, who earned the reputation of being an unreliable boyfriend, often hinting at action by the Committee, only to fail to follow through when the meeting voted. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
Inflation has hardly been seen in the developed world economies for the last three decades. But now some economists are warning it could be returning with a vengeance, because of supply chain problems, post-Covid exuberance, and higher wage demands. What is going on, and should we all be worried? We hear opposing views from Claudia Sahm, former economic adviser to the Federal Reserve and the White House, Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, and Andrew Sentance, senior adviser at Cambridge Econometrics and a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Image: Full shopping cart in supermarket aisle (Credit: Getty Images).
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets next week to discuss whether to raise interest rates to encourage people to save and help bring price inflation down. But any change in rate influences all manner of financial markets and the speculation is already having an impact on mortgages - this week a number of the big lenders raised their borrowing costs. Justin Webb spoke to Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia, founder of money saving app Snoop, and first to Dame Deanne Julius, Distinguished Fellow at Chatham House and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member. (Image, Bank of England, Credit, Yui Mok/PA Wire.)
"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting will end today with the most likely outcome a slightly more hawkish stance but no change to policy. There are sure to be votes in favour of a rate hike given the most recent comments of some members of the committee, but they are unlikely to garner sufficient support to elicit a change in policy. There is no question that the recovery of the economy from the Coronavirus Pandemic is now sufficiently strong for the withdrawal of support to be considered. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting will end today with the most likely outcome a slightly more hawkish stance but no change to policy. However, with the Government withdrawing its furlough scheme completely from the end of this month, there is still sufficient doubt to ensure that a majority of MPC members will want to hang on for at least another month before they vote in favour of any change. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
On this episode of Going Underground, we speak to Steven Redmayne, COO of UK energy company Green, about Britain's energy crisis. He discusses its causes, including the UK's lack of gas storage compared to other countries, and the wave of suppliers expected to collapse this winter, further consolidating market share for the biggest among them. We go on to explore the rising demand in China for natural gas, and how the delay in opening Russia's Nordstream 2 pipeline is causing energy prices to spike, with inaction by the British and European governments exacerbating the issue. In the second half, we speak to economics professor David Blanchflower, of Dartmouth College in the US, a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. He discusses the potential collapse of Evergrande, China's second-largest property developer by sales, and the ripple effect that could have across the world, should it occur, drawing on the lessons of the economic crash of 2008 about just how interconnected the global economy is. He also reviews UK PM Boris Johnson's proposed regional “levelling-up” development program and explains why he considers it a “joke,” why the UK's inflation rise has been caused by a series of temporary shocks, the scrapping of the £20-a-week Universal Credit uplift, and the National Insurance hike, which he calls a deliberate attempt to worsen the living conditions of the poor.
"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will meet this week. It will be its first opportunity to discuss the economic recovery from the Coronavirus Pandemic since early August. The committee has undergone something of a move towards a more hawkish stance with the introduction of a new external member in Catherine Mann and the arrival of Huw Pill as Chief Economist, replacing Andrew Haldane. Haldane was expected to take up a new role as Chief Executive of the Royal Society of Arts, but it was announced at the weekend that he will be the Government's new levelling up guru. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will meet this week. It will be its first opportunity to discuss the economic recovery from the Coronavirus Pandemic since early August. Both Pill and Mann are on record as commenting that the Bank of England should begin to withdraw additional support for the economy sooner rather than later. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"At first glance, it looks like Boris Johnson has abandoned one of his major election promises. That is to not raise taxes during this Parliament. However, trying to hold a government to its manifesto promises following the Brexit debacle and the Covid-19 is nigh on impossible. Furthermore, considering that one of his promises was to increase spending on both healthcare and social care, he is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The announcement of an increase of 1.5% in National Insurance contributions has divided the ruling Conservative Party At first glance, it looks like Boris Johnson has abandoned one of his major election promises. That is to not raise taxes during this Parliament. However, trying to hold a government to its manifesto promises following the Brexit debacle and the Covid-19 is nigh on impossible. Michael Saunders, a perennial hawk on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, spoke yesterday of his concerns about further asset purchases. He believes that since the economy has now reached close to pre-Pandemic conditions, that it is time to start to taper support. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
This week we're back focusing on the UK economy. James shares his insights on how quickly we might reach 'normal', Handelsbanken's Global Market Forecast, UK PMIs, news from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, online retail sales and lastly, house prices.
"Yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee confirmed that the process towards a reduction of support for the economy is about to begin. The decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.1% was entirely predictable, while there had been a degree of speculation about the start of a reduction in the asset purchase scheme. In the end, it was left unchanged at £895 billion. There was just one dissenting vote. Inflation hawk Michael Saunders voted for a reduction in the level of asset purchases. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey spoke at his press conference of the need for a modest tightening should the economy grow as expected. The ambiguity of that remark was not lost on analysts. Yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee confirmed that the process towards a reduction of support for the economy is about to begin. Bailey has been outspoken about the fact that he believes the recent rise in inflation is transitory. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"The third wave of Covid-19 to hit the UK, brought about by the Delta variant of the virus, appears to be on the decline as every form of vaccine that has been used appears to be effective against this strain. While this is good news for the continued recovery of the economy, scientists are wary of another variant arriving to coincide with the winter flu season. For this reason, analysts expect the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, which meets tomorrow, to keep support at its current level despite the possibility of one or two dissenters over the level of asset purchases in the current programme. The third wave of Covid-19 to hit the UK, brought about by the Delta variant of the virus, appears to be on the decline as every form of vaccine that has been used appears to be effective against this strain. Overall, the expectation for the MPC meeting is for a neutral outcome, with just a shade more optimism about the continued recovery. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"This week's meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee could see the first split votes of the current cycle. While there is certain to be a 9-0 vote on leaving interest rates at historical lows, there may be one or two votes in favour of reducing the level of asset purchases. That would be a fairly cosmetic event, since there is still a majority in favour of support remaining at its current level. It would, however, drive the view that the landscape is changing and there is a change if not on the horizon, then certainly coming closer. Andrew Haldane, the bank's ex-Chief Economist, voted to cut the current round of intervention from £150 billion to £100 billion. That was seen as Haldane's final act of the campaign over his final few months to convince the nation about how strong the recovery has been. This week's meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee could see the first split votes of the current cycle. While there is certain to be a 9-0 vote on leaving interest rates at historical lows, there may be one or two votes in favour of reducing the level of asset purchases. This week's meeting will see how strong the views of Michael Saunders and Dave Ramsden are. They have both spoken recently of the need to tighten policy sooner rather than later. It is hard to discuss this issue factually since it is a completely new event and comes down to the opinion of those in the know. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee met yesterday and in tune with other major economies, decided that stimulus remains more important than tackling rising inflation. They left both the level of bond purchases and interest rates unchanged. There is a concern that something is going to have to give.; Rising inflation could cut the nascent recovery in various economies off at the knees, but the feeling is that more stimulus will solve that issue. The crystal ball viewers are finding it impossible to decide between inflation and growth as the most important driver for the global economy. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
"There is little doubt among members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee that the Bank will be in a position to begin to taper the level of support being offered to the economy sooner rather than later. Discussions concerning the fact that the Government is about to start to withdraw several support measures, including the Furlough Scheme, are taking place in the wider economy. Members of the MPC, especially the outgoing Chief Economist Andrew Haldane remain bullish about the recovery. There will be some discussion at the meeting on Thursday about inflation and the pace at which the recovery can take place. Chancellor Rishi Sunak appears to be among a cohort of Ministers that Prime Minister Boris Johnson can trust to make policy decisions that won't be challenged down the road by disgraced political advisors. " Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.
In this week's episode James talks us through last week's economic activity, including the most recent high frequency data, the outcome of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting, inflation and what this looks like both in the UK and elsewhere, and, finally, wrapping up with some findings on entrepreneurship.