Simply Economics

Follow Simply Economics
Share on
Copy link to clipboard

In about 10 minutes Simply Economics reviews the past week in the markets and looks forward to what's important to watch in the week to come.

Econoday, Inc.


    • Feb 2, 2023 LATEST EPISODE
    • infrequent NEW EPISODES
    • 16m AVG DURATION
    • 360 EPISODES


    Search for episodes from Simply Economics with a specific topic:

    Latest episodes from Simply Economics

    UP 273: Markets still don't believe the central banks

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 2, 2023 14:20


    Despite some generally hawkish central bank statements this week, financial markets apparently remain convinced that official interest rates will be falling before year-end. So, who's right and does the disconnect matter? Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss.

    markets central banks jeremy hawkins
    UP 272: The economic outlook remains highly uncertain

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 25, 2023 20:40


    Market reaction to this month's data underscores just how uncertain investors are about the global economic outlook. And this means that asset prices are likely to remain particularly sensitive to the higher frequency data, at least until the picture becomes clearer.

    UP 271: U.S. eyes September payrolls as the UK digests economic policy chaos

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 21:28


    Friday's U.S. employment report dominates this week's economic data calendar but it's been the disastrous U-turn in UK government fiscal policy and the subsequent enforced deferral of the BoE's QT plans that's left many investors really rattled. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what's going on.

    UP 270: Central bank round-up: What they did and what it means

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2022 26:16


    Supported by aggressive rhetoric, this week's raft of official interest rate hikes means that many central banks are still firmly in tightening mode. And that's adding to recession risks and posing increasing problems for those monetary authorities reluctant or unable to follow suit.

    UP 269: The energy price shock is forcing a fiscal response

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2022 46:59


    The impact of surging energy prices on monetary policy has been apparent for some while now but as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, the real economy fallout is increasingly forcing governments to intervene with fiscal help. The team discuss the global picture.

    UP 268: Recession won't stop rates rising

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 17:18


    If there was one overriding message from last week's Jackson Hole symposium it was that central banks have had enough of overshooting inflation. And from current elevated levels, that means further, almost certainly aggressive, monetary tightening that can only increase the likelihood of recession.

    UP 267: Whatever happened to forward guidance?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2022 44:49


    In recent weeks a number of central banks have modified, or even completely jettisoned, their forward guidance on interest rates. While sensibly allowing monetary policy to be more nimble, the changes also reflect increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The team analyse the latest developments.

    UP 266: Global update: From inflation to recession?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2022 48:20


    Inflation is still far too high pretty well everywhere and, in some countries, still rising. However, as the real economy data disappoint, recession talk is getting notably louder. And if recession is just around the corner, it may be that the peak to inflation and interest rates is closer than many suppose.

    UP 264: A far from synchronised global recovery

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 2, 2022 44:54


    To varying degrees, inflation, geopolitical tensions and inevitably Covid continue to dictate investor behaviour in general. However, policy responses around the world have to respect what's going on locally and national economic conditions differ markedly. The team look at the dislocations in economic cycles and their implications for financial markets in this month's global podcast.

    UP 263: Central bank round-up - what they did and what it means

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2021 13:06


    Following a raft of central bank announcements on Wednesday and today, Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what the policymakers did and what it all means for financial markets in 2022.

    central banks jeremy hawkins
    UP 262: A more aggressive Fed and 'Super Thursday'

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2021 21:14


    It's a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on 'Super Thursday'. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.

    UP 261: An Omicron spanner in the works?

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2021 32:43


    Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

    omicron qe spanner jeremy hawkins mark pender
    UP 260: Euro struggles as Powell renominated

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2021 21:24


    The dollar's recent gains in part reflect euro weakness with the Eurozone unit now at multi-month lows against a range of currencies. Moreover, in the absence of a change in tone from the ECB, upcoming economic data and events could well reinforce the currency's slide. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the medium-term outlook.

    UP 259:Surging inflation boosts the dollar

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 16, 2021 24:25


    U.S. inflation continues to climb and with it, so does speculation about early Fed tightening. With yield spreads likely to widen in the currency's favour, October's shock CPI report could open the door to a significantly stronger dollar that, in turn, would provide an additional unwelcome lift to prices overseas. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

    inflation dollar fed cpi surging boosts jeremy hawkins in turn mark pender
    UP 258: Policy communication and central bank credibility

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2021 22:51


    Financial markets have become used to being forewarned by central banks about prospective changes to monetary policy. However, when such decisions are split, clear communication becomes much harder. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss last week's announcements and how the Fed got it right and the BoE got it wrong.

    UP 257: The turn in the policy cycle

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2021 29:00


    With inflation increasingly pulling the monetary policy strings, the Federal Reserve this week is expected to launch its QE tapering plan while the Bank of England becomes the first of the G10 central banks to actually raise its benchmark interest rate. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the outlook for monetary policy in the context of the latest and upcoming key economic data.

    UP 256: Not so transitory inflation

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2021 44:09


    By and large, central bankers around the world now seem to accept that high inflation will last longer than originally expected. Most still seem to expect a return to more normal rates in 2022 but the recent sharp jump in energy costs has pulled forward many investors' view of monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, this week's global podcast considers the tricky decisions facing the policymakers.

    UP 255: The Fed's payroll path to tapering.

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2021 24:21


    Friday's U.S. employment report is widely seen as the key that could unlock the door to Fed tapering. However, payrolls will still need to be strong, at least to a degree, or November's FOMC meeting might yet turn out to be a damp squib. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at what's expected and discuss the other potential market-moving data and events this week.

    fed payroll fomc tapering jeremy hawkins mark pender
    UP 254: Fed toes tapering as other central banks stand pat.

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2021 22:07


    Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday. Either economic cycles are now moving out of sync or at least one central bank has got it wrong.

    UP 253: Fed tapering would mask slowing global growth

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2021 29:27


    Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday's economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developments and their implications for policy in this month's global podcast.

    UP 252: RBNZ tightening in doubt as Covid clouds the global recovery

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2021 15:15


    An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.

    UP 251: US payrolls preview and the BoE's QE call

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2021 20:42


    Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday's U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday's BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are also in focus.

    delta fed payroll qe jeremy hawkins
    UP 250: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2021 7:55


    The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday's ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.

    UP 249: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2021 29:47


    PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the ongoing disconnect.

    UP 248: Central banks stick to their guns

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2021 37:41


    Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.

    UP 247: Demand soaring but inflation mixed; Covid reopenings uneven

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2021 29:18


    Global demand continues to recover more quickly than output which remains restrained by shortages of raw materials. For many countries the growth gap has yet to drive up final product prices but an exception may be the US where prices are indeed jumping as the country benefits from an early reopening that has yet to unfold in many other economies.

    UP 246:Inflation yet to shift monetary policy

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2021 26:34


    The basic message from global central banks is holding, that inflation pressures now building will soon fade and that rate hikes are still well down the road.

    UP 245: How and when to signal the policy shift

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 27, 2021 27:05


    Federal Reserve communications are approaching the inflection point on when to signal the withdrawal of stimulus. For Europe, this pivot is still more distant given lagging vaccination rates and lagging economic performance.

    UP 243: Status quo for Fed and SNB; 'vaccine war' for UK-EU

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 23, 2021 30:26


    Wild bumps for US data are due to comparison distortions, an effect that is expected to be temporary and which would not derail Federal Reserve plans for extended stimulus. Steady policy for the Swiss National Bank, given a falling franc, is also the expectation. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the UK's performance amid developing tensions with the EU over vaccine production and availability.

    UP 242: The Fed and BoE likely to hold policy steady; vaccine issues cloud Eurozone prospects

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2021 29:04


    Despite the recent rise in long rates, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England are likely to make any QE adjustments. Covid cases have been coming down and vaccination rates going up in both the US and UK, in sharp contrast to the Eurozone where the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

    UP 240: Inflation climbing, yields jumping, policy in question

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2021 35:30


    With vaccines rolling out and Covid cases coming down, our team updates the outlook for inflation and long-term interest rates and what it may or may not mean for any changes in central bank policy.

    UP 239: Inflation up, rates up; how to communicate policy change

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2021 24:33


    Inflation may still be well below target but it is on the rise as are long-term interest rates. How these factors are affecting the financial markets and monetary policy and what they mean for central-bank communication strategy are points of this week's discussion.

    UP 238: QE as means to control exchange rates

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2021 39:16


    This week's topic is whether central banks may begin to increase or decrease QE as a means of controlling exchange rates and the related risks that such action might bring to financial market stability.

    UP 237: The end of low inflation?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 9, 2021 30:43


    Inflation expectations in the financial markets are rising quickly in contrast to actual inflation measures which are still subdued.

    UP 236: Regional round-up and Covid-19 vaccination rates - the new forward-looking economic recovery metric

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2021 31:03


    Brian Jackson and Jeremy Hawkins pull together the latest economic trends and discuss the importance to financial markets of the relative pace of the vaccine rollout.

    UP 235: Updates on the latest data and policy outlooks

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 26, 2021 27:56


    Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the latest economic data from Europe and the US, including a sharp drop in UK retail indications and sharp gains for US home prices. GDP outlooks are also discussed as well as issues at play for coming central bank meetings.

    europe uk data policy gdp outlooks jeremy hawkins mark pender
    UP 234: Asian data improving as Europe struggles; US labor market weak

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2021 29:22


    Our duo of Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender round-up recent data and discuss the outlook for pending data and upcoming central bank announcements. Themes include weakness in the US labor market, ECB lending worries as well as the separation between assessments of current conditions and expectations for future recovery.

    UP 233: US job weakness severe and skewed; Covid updates from Europe

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2021 22:02


    Our team discusses the latest employment news from both the US and Canada, as well Covid counts and restrictions in Europe and what it may mean for first-quarter activity.

    UP 231: 2020 in review: Takeaways from a tumultuous year

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2020 8:34


    With much of the global hospitality sector hit by Covid-19 restrictions, takeaways have been a lifesaver for many cafes, pubs and restaurants in 2020. But throughout the year, there’s also been a number of interesting takeaways to be had from how policymakers and financial markets have responded to the coronavirus pandemic. Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at some of the most significant.

    UP 230: Central bank round-up: some moves possible but no action likely

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2020 27:26


    Balancing between near-term weakness and medium-term prospects of vaccination relief, the Federal Reserve is not expected to make any policy moves at this week's meeting. And as long as Brexit remains up in the air, neither is the Bank of England though should a no-deal emerge, the bank could take pre-emptive action. Also meeting this week will be the Swiss National Bank whose easing bias, given stability in the Swiss franc, isn't likely to be tested, as well as the Bank of Japan where QE extension is a possibility.

    UP 229: Final Brexit talks, ECB decision to be early keys for 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2020 30:07


    The post-Brexit world is imminent but has yet to take shape. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss what various outcomes might mean for currencies and also discuss possible outcomes for next week's slate of central bank meetings and their possible effects on the markets.

    keys decision brexit jeremy hawkins mark pender
    UP 228: Covid-19 vaccines to the rescue as global growth stutters

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2020 29:29


    The impending arrival of a Covid-19 vaccine continues to underpin global stock markets despite mounting evidence of weak fourth quarter GDP in Europe and some signs of slowing activity in the U.S. Geopolitical issues are also discussed as a possible threat to the economic recovery in parts of the Asia/Pacific region.

    UP 227: Fiscal frustration and the threat to recovery

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 24, 2020 11:04


    Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at the state of the recovery in the major economies and warns that future prospects could be seriously damaged by emerging disputes between and amongst fiscal and monetary policymakers.

    UP 226: US outperforming; European fiscal policy in doubt

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 17, 2020 27:58


    Strength in retail sales and housing as well as business investment appear to be giving the US an edge at least relative to Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest economic data as well as the very latest updates on European fiscal stimulus and, not least, what is supposed to be the final act for Brexit.

    UP 225: Vaccine game changer; when to withdraw stimulus

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2020 23:54


    Monday's announcement of a breakthrough vaccine promises perhaps a timely turnaround for the global economy, in turn raising questions whether central banks will begin the delicate policy shift to stimulus withdrawal. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest implications of the US election as well as the immediate economic outlook which, given new restrictions underway in Europe, may not be positive at all.

    UP 224: Election quandary ups US stimulus doubts; RBA cut raises negative-rate talk

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2020 24:02


    The unknown outcome of the US election may be increasing the risk that new fiscal stimulus will either be limited or delayed. Our panel also discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's move this week to cut interest rates and whether it may be anticipating increasing stimulus, perhaps negative rates, from other central banks including the European Central Bank and Bank of England both of which are facing a rising tide of Covid infections.

    UP 223: Global stimulus posing future risks; markets stable, growth struggling

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2020 30:37


    Financial markets, including currencies, are showing no dislocations despite surging global debt and aggressively stimulative monetary policy. And even more aggressive policy may in store amid the possibility that the general weakness of the economic recovery will force yet more central banks to adopt negative policy rates.

    UP 222: Market risk and the EU summit

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2020 31:38


    What to expect or not to expect from the EU leaders' summit is this week's feature, one that poses possible and immediate risks to UK assets. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss worldwide debt, worldwide disinflation, Greek bonds and global growth forecasts.

    uk european union greek market risk eu summit jeremy hawkins mark pender
    UP 221: Asia doing best, US next, Europe last; Cries for fiscal help

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2020 29:39


    Relaxation of Covid restrictions is giving much of Asia an economic lift, while lack of new restrictions is a plus for the US. Yet in Europe infections are on the rise at the same time that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, both pressuring the European Central Bank to perhaps increase QE. For all regions, new fiscal stimulus, delayed or not, is the universal cry.

    UP 220: Central-bank policy cohesion showing cracks; fiscal outlooks updated

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2020 27:52


    Reflecting the strains of Covid in Europe, splits may be showing at both the European Central Bank, where calls are appearing for greater QE, as well as the Bank of England where talk of negative rates has re-emerged. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also update the outlook for fiscal stimulus both in Europe and the US, and also discuss the possible market impact of US politics and the first presidential debate.

    UP 219: Europe facing second wave; September PMIs prove mixed

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2020 33:11


    How to control the pandemic while not limiting the economic recovery is the question for policy makers in Europe where talk of a second wave is building. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the general outlook for fiscal stimulus as well as September's run of PMIs and what to expect from the coming Swiss National Bank assessment.

    Claim Simply Economics

    In order to claim this podcast we'll send an email to with a verification link. Simply click the link and you will be able to edit tags, request a refresh, and other features to take control of your podcast page!

    Claim Cancel