Podcast appearances and mentions of nathan grawe

American higher education is about to have a big numbers problem on its hands, and it could affect college football in significant ways (albeit probably not for the Ohio States and Alabamas of the world). Alex interviews Dr. Nathan Grawe, an expert on the "enrollment cliff" that's rapidly approaching for U.S. colleges. Before that, Alex, Richard, and Godfrey talk about CFB news of the week and what a big outside investment might look like if CFB had its own version of the current PGA Tour story. Production: Anthony Vito. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dr. Nathan Grawe from Carleton College studies college enrollment patterns and is concerned that some small towns that depend on their colleges for economic sustenance could be in trouble.

Hour 1: Jason talked with listeners about the impending indictment of the former President and the political fallout. Then Dr. Nathan Grawe talked with him about declining college enrollment and it's effect on small towns.

It seems like everyone is talking about innovation these days. Boards of trustees are looking for innovative leaders, and there is a sense of urgency around the need to think and act differently. And yet, what does it mean to innovate in this rapidly evolving and increasingly challenging context? What does it take to build and sustain an innovative culture? Where do innovative leaders get their best ideas? Why is it so difficult to innovate and institute lasting change in an academic organization? And what can leaders do? These are just some of the questions addressed by our panel of insightful thought leaders in this special summer episode. In order of appearance: Michael Sorrell, Nathan Grawe, Sandra Doran, Scott Wyatt, Alison Kadlec, Paul LeBlanc, Susan Campbell Baldridge, Brandon Busteed, Bryan Alexander, Lenore Rodicio, David Staley, Laurie Pulido, Gregory Fowler, and Lynn Pasquerella

What is on your radar right now? As you look the future, what keeps you awake at night? At the end of each interview, we ask our guests to respond to these same questions, to tell us what is top of mind as they contemplate the post-pandemic future. We are pleased to share a compilation of the wisdom and insights that these extraordinary thought leaders shared with us during Season 2. In order of appearance: Sandra Doran, President at Bay Path University; David Horner, President at The American College in Greece; Yves Solomon-Fernandez, President at Greenfield Community College; Donna Carroll, President at Dominican University (IL); Michael Sorrell, President at Paul Quinn College; Elsa Nunez, President at Eastern Connecticut State University; Paul LeBlanc, President at Southern New Hampshire University; Nathan Grawe, Professor of Economics at Carleton College, and Adrianna Kezar, Wilbur-Kieffer Professor of Higher Education and Director of the Pulias Center for Higher Education at the University of Southern California.

Dr. Nathan Grawe, Author and Professor of Economics at Carleton College joined the podcast to talk about his new book, The Agile College, and the enrollment growth strategies higher ed needs to consider to successfully navigate the new demographic changes that are coming.

On this episode, Nathan Grawe returns to talk about his book, The Agile College, and potential ways that colleges and universities might respond to the significant demographic changes in the upcoming years.

Most higher ed professionals are familiar with Nathan Grawe's groundbreaking work—his 2018 book Demographics and The Demand for Higher Education  informed the projection of an impending demographic cliff that has been on everyone's radar for a few years now. Nathan has recently completed a follow up research project and book—The Agile College and during our conversation, Nathan shares what he has learned from his interviews with higher education leaders to provide examples of how proactive institutions are grappling with demographic change.  

In his highly influential book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Carleton College Professor of Economics, Nathan Grawe, alerted college and university leaders to the challenges they would be facing with the accelerating decline in the number of U.S. high school graduates that will come in the middle of this decade. In his new book, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes (Johns Hopkins UP, 2021), he updates the demographic trends through the mid-2030s and describes the variety of strategies different institutions are adopting to respond to the decline in their traditional student population. He shares what led him to become an economist and the rigorous training he received at the University of Chicago. We have an engaging discussion of the implications of his work for both university leaders and policymakers as they debate reforms for funding college students. He also shares some insights from his new project looking at the publishing and career paths of economists working in liberal arts colleges. David Finegold is the president of Chatham University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his highly influential book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Carleton College Professor of Economics, Nathan Grawe, alerted college and university leaders to the challenges they would be facing with the accelerating decline in the number of U.S. high school graduates that will come in the middle of this decade. In his new book, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes (Johns Hopkins UP, 2021), he updates the demographic trends through the mid-2030s and describes the variety of strategies different institutions are adopting to respond to the decline in their traditional student population. He shares what led him to become an economist and the rigorous training he received at the University of Chicago. We have an engaging discussion of the implications of his work for both university leaders and policymakers as they debate reforms for funding college students. He also shares some insights from his new project looking at the publishing and career paths of economists working in liberal arts colleges. David Finegold is the president of Chatham University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his highly influential book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Carleton College Professor of Economics, Nathan Grawe, alerted college and university leaders to the challenges they would be facing with the accelerating decline in the number of U.S. high school graduates that will come in the middle of this decade. In his new book, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes (Johns Hopkins UP, 2021), he updates the demographic trends through the mid-2030s and describes the variety of strategies different institutions are adopting to respond to the decline in their traditional student population. He shares what led him to become an economist and the rigorous training he received at the University of Chicago. We have an engaging discussion of the implications of his work for both university leaders and policymakers as they debate reforms for funding college students. He also shares some insights from his new project looking at the publishing and career paths of economists working in liberal arts colleges. David Finegold is the president of Chatham University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

In his highly influential book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Carleton College Professor of Economics, Nathan Grawe, alerted college and university leaders to the challenges they would be facing with the accelerating decline in the number of U.S. high school graduates that will come in the middle of this decade. In his new book, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes (Johns Hopkins UP, 2021), he updates the demographic trends through the mid-2030s and describes the variety of strategies different institutions are adopting to respond to the decline in their traditional student population. He shares what led him to become an economist and the rigorous training he received at the University of Chicago. We have an engaging discussion of the implications of his work for both university leaders and policymakers as they debate reforms for funding college students. He also shares some insights from his new project looking at the publishing and career paths of economists working in liberal arts colleges. David Finegold is the president of Chatham University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/education

In his highly influential book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Carleton College Professor of Economics, Nathan Grawe, alerted college and university leaders to the challenges they would be facing with the accelerating decline in the number of U.S. high school graduates that will come in the middle of this decade. In his new book, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes (Johns Hopkins UP, 2021), he updates the demographic trends through the mid-2030s and describes the variety of strategies different institutions are adopting to respond to the decline in their traditional student population. He shares what led him to become an economist and the rigorous training he received at the University of Chicago. We have an engaging discussion of the implications of his work for both university leaders and policymakers as they debate reforms for funding college students. He also shares some insights from his new project looking at the publishing and career paths of economists working in liberal arts colleges. David Finegold is the president of Chatham University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

In his highly influential book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Carleton College Professor of Economics, Nathan Grawe, alerted college and university leaders to the challenges they would be facing with the accelerating decline in the number of U.S. high school graduates that will come in the middle of this decade. In his new book, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes (Johns Hopkins UP, 2021), he updates the demographic trends through the mid-2030s and describes the variety of strategies different institutions are adopting to respond to the decline in their traditional student population. He shares what led him to become an economist and the rigorous training he received at the University of Chicago. We have an engaging discussion of the implications of his work for both university leaders and policymakers as they debate reforms for funding college students. He also shares some insights from his new project looking at the publishing and career paths of economists working in liberal arts colleges. David Finegold is the president of Chatham University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/american-studies

In a continuation of episode 12, we ask Nathan Grawe if the COVID-19 pandemic has distracted campuses or given them a push to examine new ways of operating and educating that will ultimately help them to overcome the demographic shift? 

Joining Howard Teibel today in conversation is Dr. Nathan Grawe, distinguished teaching professor of the social sciences at Carleton college, where he has served on the faculty since 1999. You might have seen Nathan's work as it relates to the framing of the enrollment cliff, something that's been exacerbated and accelerated in this last year.As we find ourselves beginning to emerge out of lockdowns in our lives — and for many of us on our campuses — the big question is how will we navigate back to what Georgia Tech is framing as a return to better?This conversation with Nathan covers many important topics, including his most recent analysis of enrollment trends, issues of shared governance, and how we need to think about work as we come out of this pandemic.Reach out to us at Teibel education if we can help you build an intentional mindset and process to navigate your challenges over this next year.About Dr. Nathan GraweDr. Nathan Grawe the Ada M. Harrison Distinguished Teaching Professor of the Social Sciences and Professor of Economics at Carleton College. He is a labor economist whose work examines intergenerational connections with education and labor market outcomes. Nathan's book, Demographics and The Demand for Higher Education (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2018) examines how recent demographic shifts are likely to affect demand for higher education. In a follow-up project, The Agile College (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2021), Nathan draws on interviews with higher education leaders to provide examples of how proactive institutions are grappling with demographic change.Links & NotesAbout Dr. Nathan GraweThe Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Challenges by Nathan D. GraweVisit Nathan's Website at Carleton College

Joining Howard Teibel today in conversation is Dr. Nathan Grawe, distinguished teaching professor of the social sciences at Carleton College, where he has served on the faculty since 1999. You might have seen Nathan's work as it relates to the framing of the enrollment cliff, something that's been exacerbated and accelerated in this last year. As we find ourselves beginning to emerge out of lockdowns in our lives — and for many of us on our campuses — the big question is how will we navigate back to what Georgia Tech is framing as a *return to better*? This conversation with Nathan covers many important topics, including his most recent analysis of enrollment trends, issues of shared governance, and how we need to think about work as we come out of this pandemic. Reach out to us at Teibel education if we can help you build an intentional mindset and process to navigate your challenges over this next year. ### About Dr. Nathan Grawe Dr. Nathan Grawe the Ada M. Harrison Distinguished Teaching Professor of the Social Sciences and Professor of Economics at Carleton College. He is a labor economist whose work examines intergenerational connections with education and labor market outcomes. Nathan's book, Demographics and The Demand for Higher Education (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2018) examines how recent demographic shifts are likely to affect demand for higher education. In a follow-up project, The Agile College (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2021), Nathan draws on interviews with higher education leaders to provide examples of how proactive institutions are grappling with demographic change. ### Links & Notes - [About Dr. Nathan Grawe][nathan] - [*The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Challenges* by Nathan D. Grawe][book] - [Visit Nathan's Website at Carleton College][web] [book]:https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/agile-college [nathan]:https://www.carleton.edu/directory/ngrawe/ [web]:https://ngrawe.sites.carleton.edu

In the first of a two-part episode we talk with Nathan Grawe, economics professor at Carleton College and author of Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education (John Hopkins University Press, 2018) and The Agile College (John Hopkins University Press, 2021). We focus primarily on his new book which looks at institutional strategies and tactics to thrive in an environment of shifting demographics.

Dr. David Finegold, the President of Chatham University in Pittsburgh, PA and international expert on education and training systems and how they relate to changes underway in the global economy and workplace, provides an introduction to this new podcast which will focus on the forces that are shaping The Future of Higher Education and leaders that have found ways to help their institutions thrive in this challenging environment. He discusses the long-term trends that are disrupting the higher education marketplace – demographic decline in number of high school graduates, rising price competition, declining public funding, growth in large, higher quality online providers – that have been compounded by the pandemic. And he outlines the different types of episodes to come: interview with university leaders who have transformed the fortunes of their colleges and universities for the better, who have pioneered new models of higher education, or have created strategic partnerships or mergers that have enabled their institutions to continue to pursue their mission in a new way. He'll also be speaking with leading experts on higher education, like Nathan Grawe and Mary Marcy, about their new books. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dr. David Finegold, the President of Chatham University in Pittsburgh, PA and international expert on education and training systems and how they relate to changes underway in the global economy and workplace, provides an introduction to this new podcast which will focus on the forces that are shaping The Future of Higher Education and leaders that have found ways to help their institutions thrive in this challenging environment. He discusses the long-term trends that are disrupting the higher education marketplace – demographic decline in number of high school graduates, rising price competition, declining public funding, growth in large, higher quality online providers – that have been compounded by the pandemic. And he outlines the different types of episodes to come: interview with university leaders who have transformed the fortunes of their colleges and universities for the better, who have pioneered new models of higher education, or have created strategic partnerships or mergers that have enabled their institutions to continue to pursue their mission in a new way. He’ll also be speaking with leading experts on higher education, like Nathan Grawe and Mary Marcy, about their new books. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Dr. David Finegold, the President of Chatham University in Pittsburgh, PA and international expert on education and training systems and how they relate to changes underway in the global economy and workplace, provides an introduction to this new podcast which will focus on the forces that are shaping The Future of Higher Education and leaders that have found ways to help their institutions thrive in this challenging environment. He discusses the long-term trends that are disrupting the higher education marketplace – demographic decline in number of high school graduates, rising price competition, declining public funding, growth in large, higher quality online providers – that have been compounded by the pandemic. And he outlines the different types of episodes to come: interview with university leaders who have transformed the fortunes of their colleges and universities for the better, who have pioneered new models of higher education, or have created strategic partnerships or mergers that have enabled their institutions to continue to pursue their mission in a new way. He’ll also be speaking with leading experts on higher education, like Nathan Grawe and Mary Marcy, about their new books. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/education

Noted author Nathan D. Grawe talks about his new book that explores how college recruitment and retention efforts are evolving to meet demographic and other challenges.

As higher education institutions deal with the fallout caused by the coronavirus pandemic, they also are facing a critical challenge in maintaining student enrollment. Many leaders were already worried about the enrollment cliff, but the pandemic has accelerated this issue. Many students are changing their initial decision about college through not applying, deferring admission or transferring to a regional institution closer to home. This podcast will look at the pandemic, student enrollment and the ripple effect that this can have on an institution. Today’s guests are Bill Conley and Bob Massa, co-founders of Enrollment Intelligence NOW. Falling Enrollments The pandemic has caused colleges and universities to lose student enrollment at a time they where they were bracing for the enrollment cliff of 2025. A year ago, more than half of four-year colleges and universities had not met their enrollment goal. COVID-19 has put a sharp punctuation mark on a trend that was growing over the last several years in many sectors of higher education, especially small four-year liberal arts colleges that are highly dependent on a regional enrollment in areas where high school graduation rates are declining and will continue to decline precipitously. The fall enrollment numbers are sobering. Overall higher education enrollment is down 2.5%. However, some institutions and subgroups of students are experiencing steeper declines. Private college enrollment dropped by approximately 4% and community college enrollment also is down. The only institutions that have done reasonably well during this time are the regional public institutions. However, these institutions’ enrollment still have dropped, but not as significantly as other types of colleges and universities. International student enrollment dipped by 11%; this is not surprising due to the difficulty in enter the United States and COVID travel restrictions. Domestic students are attending institution that are closer to home. A not-insignificant number of students have deferred their admission to next school year. These enrollment drops also will have a significant effect on public institutions, which will face the additional burden of receiving decreased state funding due to the pandemic’s impact. A Steeper Enrollment Cliff Dr. Nathan Grawe, the Carlton College economics professor who wrote “Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,” pointed to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 when fertility rates dropped significantly. He also projected a discouraging picture of high school graduation rates in 2030; this will be much worse when the decline in fertility is factored in. Now facing the uncertainties of a pandemic, families are postponing childbearing. This would mean the next wave of students won’t reach college until 2040, which could result in higher education having an even rougher ride. These projections have significant ramifications for higher education leaders. There is a tendency by university presidents, provosts and enrollment managers to focus on making decisions based on the “here and now” and what is right in front of them. However with the enrollment cliff rapidly approaching, decisions made right now will have institutional ramifications decades into the future. Therefore, it’s important for higher education leaders to look toward the future to strategically consider the impact that current decisions will have. Leaders face a real tension between making the current decisions that are designed “to keep the lights on” and making sure those decisions don’t inhibit longer-term opportunities and excellence. What happens in this environment can affect stakeholders’ sense of trust. In the current environment shaped by the pandemic, many higher education decisions are being made in a more efficient manner that is often seen in the corporate sector; this decision-making style is foreign to higher education and their shared governance models. To be successful, current higher education leaders need to balance rapid decision-making that is focused on the here-and-now with consideration on how to build and maintain trust within the college or university across the institution’s governance structure, which includes faculty, staff, Board of Trustees. This involves blending two often contradictory styles and considering tradeoffs when necessary. Taking the Long View In the early 2000s, a well-respected president from a top liberal arts college made the decision to hold tuition constant for a year, thanks to the institution’s large endowment and healthy budget. In retrospect, the president believes this was one of the worst decisions he made because it had a multiplying effect on the institution’s bottom line so that the college was handcuffed and couldn’t to what it needed to do for its mission. This should be a cautionary tale for higher education leaders. Today, colleges are rushing to discount tuition for online learning. However, leaders should reconsider this decision because not only does it set institutions up for less revenue than they need in this current economic situation, but also sets up an expectation among constituents (parents and students) that they should always look for a lower price. While there is a strong need for cost containment in higher education, price and cost are two different things. Price is what institutions charge; while this is related to cost, it’s not the same thing. Rarely does the price charged for an education cover the full cost of providing that education. The rest is made up by endowment earnings, gifts, state funding, federal aid, etc. Governance and Trust An increasing number of presidents are announcing their retirement, resignation or return to the faculty. There is some speculation that many presidents may have planned to announce these decisions back in March, but delayed the announcement due to the pandemic. There also are a growing number of challenges in the decision-making arena, including faculty votes of no-confidence. Are these no-confidence votes related to a president’s decision-making in regards to COVID-19? Or are faculty cherry-picking grievances based on past decisions? Moving forward, presidents, provosts and board do need to be held accountable. With that said, there needs to be an understanding that they have a complex job and it’s become more so in the current situation. However, some faculty distrust decisions that are made when they are not present. What is a University’s Primary Mission? Educating Students Colleges and universities exist to educate students, not to employ faculty and staff. Many decisions currently being made are about how to keep student demand in place in order to maintain enrollment. College and university faculty need to understand that ultimately the institution exists for the students. If the institution doesn’t have students, it doesn’t have revenue; if there is no revenue, there is no mission. Currently, stakeholders need to come together around a common idea of the institution’s guiding principle. This group of stakeholders also needs to include student and parents, many of whom felt blindsided by this year by university decisions to open, not open and quarantine. Not all of the institution’s constituents will be in favor of every decision. Leaders need to convey that they are listening and cognizant of the concerns that faculty, staff and parents have. This is why transparency is important in decision-making. Enrollment Management It’s important to remember what enrollment management entails because there have a number of cynical perspectives, such as it’s about net-tuition revenue. While it is, the best way for the institution to maintain and enhance net tuition revenue is not just recruiting first-time freshmen and qualified transfers, but also retaining the students that the institution worked so hard to recruit in the first place. This involves taking into account recruitment, admissions, financial aid, retention rates, graduation rates and giving rates among alumni. Analyzing each point on this continuum is the best way for institutions to manage the current stresses. People have to over-perform in all of these ways, which is well illustrated by Peter Drucker’s quote, “The best way to plan for the future is to plan the future.” Creating trust in relation to higher education governance is about planning the future through using students as the focus. Breaking Down Siloes People in colleges and universities are very good at building silos. In contrast, an enrollment management system should be good at breaking down siloes and checking on students in relation to retention. In doing so during these times, it’s important to integrate both the counseling center and the career center staff in these efforts to ensure that each student’s individual needs are being meet at this time. It’s important that the appropriate resources be made available to take care of students in relation to enrollment management, counseling and career services. However, counseling centers are currently understaffed and having difficulty dealing with mental health issues coming up in the pandemic and the significant increase in number of students who are seeking counseling on campus. Even though institutions are in a retention period because revenue has taken a big hit, expenses have increased significantly (especially in relation to COVID), and cuts and furloughs are happening. That sets the stage for the dynamics between enrollment management and the business office. The business/finance office views this as spending money (or too much money) that the institution doesn’t have. However, spending to provide appropriate services such as enrollment management, counseling and career services is actually an investment in current (and future) students. These services ultimately are a benefit financially to the institution since they help maintain a steady enrollment of students. Therefore, it’s important to consider whether requests from these areas are an investment or truly a spend. Four Recommendations for Higher Education Leaders Conley and Massa suggested four takeaways for higher education leaders: Leaders need to stand with confidence but given all the unknowns, it’s a folly being certain. Leaders need to tell people the truth–both good and bad—and lay out the options with confidence and compassion. Make certain that the decisions made today also take the future into account. This requires careful thought and mapping out potential implications that a particular decision can have on the future. Presidents need to communicate to enrollment management leaders and admissions deans that they need to stay connected by the external world, including K-12 education. Don’t get consumed by internal issues. This approach goes to building trust and credibility among the external-facing public. Consider the difference between investment and expenditure. Do not expect the staff to produce if they don’t have the resources. With that said, staff do need to be held accountable, optimize their work and row in the same direction. Bullet Points Higher education enrollments have declined in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. These drops will be especially difficult for institutions that depend on state funding for a significant part of their budget. Higher education already was facing an enrollment cliff. The pandemic may extend this issue since parents may delay having children until the pandemic and economy stabilize, which will have implications through 2040. Higher education leaders need to consider both the short-term impact of decisions as well as the long-term ramifications. What looks good in the short-term (keeping the lights on) could have serious negative implications for the institution years down the road. Building trust among stakeholders is critically important right now. This is important because many leaders have been forced to use a more corporate decision-making model based on the rapidly emerging issues in the pandemic, which is counter to how higher education has traditionally operated. This change has resulted in some votes of no confidence emerging among faculty members across the nation. Price and cost are two different things. Price is what institutions charge; while this is related to cost, it’s not the same thing. Rarely does the price charged for an education cover the full cost of providing that education. Therefore, it’s important to think twice about cutting the cost of tuition since parents and students will come to expect a lower price in the future. College and university faculty need to understand that ultimately the institution exists for the students. If the institution doesn’t have students, it doesn’t have revenue; if there is no revenue, there is no mission. Enrollment management takes into account recruitment, admissions, financial aid, retention rates, graduation rates and giving rates among alumni. Analyzing each point on this continuum is the best way for institutions to manage the current stresses. Appropriate resources need to be made available to take care of students in relation to enrollment management, counseling and career services. These services ultimately are a benefit financially to the institution and an investment since they help maintain a steady enrollment of students. Links to Articles, Apps, or websites mentioned during the interview: Enrollment Intelligence NOW Guests Social Media Links: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/enrollment-intelligence-now/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/william-conley-5688a637/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bobmassa/ The Change Leader’s Social Media Links: Website: https://thechangeleader.com Website: https://changinghighered.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drdrumm/ Twitter: @thechangeldr Email: podcast@changinghighered.com Keywords: #HigherEducation #EnrollmentCliff #University #COVID #Education

Nathan's book, Demographics and Demand in Higher Education - https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/demographics-and-demand-higher-education

Show Notes:President Scott L Wyatt and Steve Meredith discuss the upcoming shift in enrollment numbers at universities and colleges with Nathan Grawe, professor of economics at Carleton College and author of Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education.Featured Quotes:[Because of the financial crisis of 2008] Young families decided that maybe it wasn’t the best time to have children and fertility rates declined and, in fact, they’ve continued to decline through at least 2018. And so, that means that about 18 years later, we can expect there to be a smaller population of prospective students for traditional-aged college. And the declines we’re talking about are significant. We’re talking 10% to 15% nationally and in some parts of the country, much steeper than that. So that no matter where you are in higher ed, we can expect that in the mid-2020s, we’re going to see a significant reversal. And so, we end up sharing some burdens together and yet having distinct paths at the same time.Nathan Grawe, Carleton CollegeI wouldn’t be surprised to see many institutions . . . engaging more aggressively with merit aid and discounting. That kind of pressure can create pressure that goes upward. You might find that you compete well with another institution for a student in the current environment, but if you're competing with another institution that starts getting aggressive with discounting and offering financial aid, you may start losing students that you’ve become accustomed to winning.Nathan Grawe, Carleton CollegeLinks Associated with this Episode:TranscriptFollow Us:Solutions for Higher Education PodcastSUU BlogSUU Facebook

In this episode you will hear:   (06:59) In this week’s news segment, an article from Bloomberg, “The Coming College Enrollment Bust”, by Justin Fox. Economists predict that there will be shifts in enrollment numbers by the second half of the 2020s. There are indications that the top 50 elite schools will have more potential students than they do now, where community colleges and regional 4-year schools will face the more significant declines. We discuss why the college admissions community is treating this predicted demographic decline as a category 5 hurricane. We highlight the work of Nathan Grawe, an economist whose original work is being lauded as a breakthrough in understanding how Demographics impact higher education.     ( 23:30) We are in chapter 94 of 171 Answers and we describe the cost of attendance within two main categories, and Mark explains what Cost of Attendance is and why it is important exactly what it is. Mark explains that it is not only important to know what the school lists as its,  “cost of attendance” but also what your customized cost of attendance is for you. Mark recommends the following tool to use to compare aid awards from one school to another, but also to make sure that every item in the cost of attendance is being factored in. Compare your Aid Awards Calculator- We also discuss breathtaking research by U-Aspire and the New American foundation that shows that widespread inaccuracies and omissions are very common in the aid awards that students receive from college. That link for a summary of their findings is our also our Recommended Resource of the week. We discuss the various components of how cost of attendance is calculated and we show how the numbers can vary drastically from one student to another based on factors like lifestyle.   (41:37) This week’s question is from Kisha, a mom from Wayne, Indiana. She asks Mark to clarify ‘rules’ that she has heard about relating to paying out of state tuition in certain areas. .    Mark answers Kisha’s question but he has a much broader conversation about reciprocity agreements. This conversation answers questions such as: 1) What are reciprocity agreements 2) Why do colleges establish these agreements 3) Are they in other states besides Indiana and Ohio 4) How can you find out if you are eligible for one of these agreements 5) Where do you find these agreements? (50:54) Mark kicks-off his interview with best-selling author and college admissions expert Steven Antonoff in: Debunking the myth that there are only 20 great colleges, Part 1 Steven shares his background and how he got interested in college admissions He describes the three books he wrote He explains why the University of Denver is taking off and becoming such a great University Steven talks about the history, evolution, growth, respect and challenges in the relatively new career of Independent College Counseling We introduce our topic, “Debunking the myth that there are only 20 great colleges” and Dr. Antonoff shares the consequences of this myth.     (57:45) Mark’s recommended resource of the week is . This executive summary highlights the eight key findings of this comprehensive study. The study looked at the inconsistency and inaccuracies that abound in the financial aid awards that students receive. The other resource we highlighted in our discussion about “The Coming College Enrollment Bust” is Nathan Grawe’s momentous book,   (01:10:31) College Spotlight: University Puget Sound   Don't forget to send your questions related to any and every facet of the college process to: questions@yourcollegeboundkid.com If you enjoy our podcast, would you please do us a favor and share our podcast both verbally and on social media? We would be most grateful! We are excited to give our listeners a chance to play a role in shaping what topics we discuss, as well as what guests we have on our podcast. You can let your voice be heard by completing this survey. Just put the following link in your browser and give us your honest feedback. We thank you in advance. Every episode of Your College-Bound Kid will align with a chapter from the book 171 Answers to the Most-Asked College Admission Questions. To get a copy go to Amazon and click:   If you want to place a bulk order, you will save money by purchasing this book at 171answers.com. Every penny goes to The Atlanta Mission, a Christian organization that helps over 1000 homeless residents every day.  If you want to see what future episodes will discuss in the book chapter section,  just go to 171answers.com and then click the red button "See exactly what 171 Answers covers"

Marquette University has its first completely online undergraduate degree that was created by faculty from the Diederich College of Communication. This new Strategic Communication major is designed for non-traditional students. Focusing on working adults is a tactical move. While there have been fewer non-traditional students in college classrooms, there has been a growth in the numbers of adults seeking online education. The focus on adults is just one change occurring in higher education. Changes in demographics, for 18 to 22-year-olds, is forcing universities to make changes to the traditional college model. Research shows that by 2026, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in five years.* This has forced universities to look at ways to remain viable, as they compete for fewer potential students. Maggie Gillette, a junior studying digital media, wanted to find out more about this new, completely online undergraduate degree. She spoke to Dr. Kati Tusinski, who is chair of the department of Strategic Communication.  *The book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, by Nathan Grawe, was the primary source for that information.  

Episode Summary New market forces are leading to disruption in higher education and institutions. Not surprisingly, tremendous innovation in technology-enhanced education, including the ways that students are taught and learn, continues to emerge. Institutions like Drexel University are testing new models that allow them to individualize education and diversifying their portfolio of programs to fit employers’ expectation Shifting Demographics Institutions need to be watching the rapidly changing demographics. Serious shifts will be happening in the United States during the next five years. Institutions that are not taking these shifts into consideration in their planning processes will have a major shock. Many institutions are getting ready now through initiating new projects, models, and activities on campuses in order to navigate these changes while also taking advantage of these shifts. For example, the book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education by Nathan Grawe, describes the impact that the 2008 economic crash had on the nation’s birthrates. The birthrates have not recovered over time. The greatest impact is in the Northeast as well as the Midwest. There also are pockets across the nation that will be impacted by this declining rate. The timing for the major decline in student enrollment will be in 2025-2026. This is due to the declining birthrate as well as fewer high school graduates. Institutions will be competing for high performing students; however, there will be fewer of these students coming through K-12 education. Institutions will face a challenge to create a brand that will allow it to recruit nationally instead of just regionally. Building a Brand The brand of the institution is important because it can help students feel like they are getting a quality education. For example, Drexel has created a brand that offers both face-to-face educational opportunities to regional students and online education that serves students in all 50 states and 30 foreign countries. That flexibility has been important since 90 percent of Drexel students work can’t attend face-to-face campuses on a regular basis. Many of these students, especially adult students, are seeking academic programs to enhance their credentials for a promotion, change jobs or careers. This population bases their enrollment decision on the quality of the program and the credentials that are offered as opposed to the institution’s location.  These students are savvy researchers who will search online to find the credential they will need to leverage their career. With thousands of institutions offering similar programs, it’s difficult to have visibility in this environment without very sophisticated search engine optimization teams, In addition, institutions are competing using the same word searches so institutions are driving up the cost of student acquisition for each other. Personalized Approach Drexel has worked diligently at personalization. This allows the institution to connect and build a relationship with the student that starts at the first contact where the prospect shows interest and continues through graduation. The technologies that are now available support personalization while creating efficiency and effectiveness, thus driving down personnel costs. Drexel believes that these technologies are an investment in the institution’s future. Optimizing the Prospective Student Experience Students have very high expectations and are willing to pay for their degree. However, they also expect to receive value for that investment through their experience at the institution. Therefore, institutions have to manage the student’s experience from beginning to end There are a number of ways that Drexel is trying to address this. For example, the institution originally outsourced its call center but has since brought it back in-house in order to ensure that every touchpoint where prospective students interface with the institution reflects the institutional brand. The institution also focuses on individualizing their approach to prospective students. They ask students how they want to receive messages. The institution also utilizes a system, which is based on student preference and allows counselors and advisors to communicate with the students. This system includes video-conferencing, chat, email or phone. There also is smart routing system that recognizes the prospective student when he/she calls and then automatically directs the candidate to the individual who specializes in that academic area (health care, business, etc.). While a call is being routed, multiple computer screens pop up so that the counselor has information regarding previous communications with that student, the student’s preferences of how to be contacted, and if that student spent time on specific web pages (such as how to finance an education). Drexel is committed to using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to manage this flow, including routing and staffing decisions as to the counselors’ schedule. This analysis includes the number of calls that come in at certain periods of time and also which times candidates with specific academic interests call. In addition, AI is used for efficiency. This includes lead scoring, which analyzes each caller’s attributes to see which ones are most likely to be successful.  Candidates who have specific characteristics that indicate they will be successful at Drexel are routed to the counselors first. Drexel then personalizes follow-up messages so students feel connected and create a sense of urgency to complete the application process. Recommendations for how Drexel personalizes and improves its communication comes from the frontline staff. Drexel staff go out of their way to get feedback about each student’s experiences and then use this data to improve operations. Successfully Competing Competition will increase among higher education institutions. Many institutional leaders and boards are concerned about some of the new institutions that are coming into the online education marketplace, such as the Ivy League schools. These institutions have a known brand, are changing their pricing structure for online students, and have created a pathway for students to earn their way in. To compete, institutions need to focus on creating value for students’ investment. This type of focus can also lead to a strong relationship to the student will return to the institution to earn certificates, advanced degrees or professional development. In addition, Drexel wants these students to become donors. Therefore, institutions need to be very clear about their market niches and strategic in their investments. They need to figure out where students can find value and where the institution can serve at a national level. In addition, institutions that can adapt and create tailored programs that companies need will be successful in the future. Innovations Drexel has created a free website, Virtually Inspired, which focuses on innovation in technology-enhanced education. It covers a variety of technology as well as case studies. The institution also created V Artifacts portfolio that is open-sourced. These resources are designed to help faculty create more robust online courses. Bullet Points Higher education will face major demographic shifts in the next five years. To survive, institutions need to take a strategic approach to their brand as well as the programs they offer.  Institutions need to focus on building their brand to set themselves apart from their competitors. This brand needs to take online students as well as traditional students into account. A focus on personalization can help institutions create a relationship with students that starts with the first contact and then continues through graduation. This relationship can lead to additional opportunities to educate the student through certification programs, graduate programs, etc. as well as the cultivation of a potential donor. Optimizing student engagement allows institutions to incorporate the student’s preferences, technology and data to refine interactions. This also leads to effectiveness (enrolling students who are a good match for the institution) and efficiency (such as staffing rates of counselors, better use of data to engage candidates, etc.) Creating value, being strategic about market niches and developing tailored services can help institutions succeed in the future. Links to Articles, Apps, or websites mentioned during the interview: Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education by Nathan Grawe Virtually Inspired Guests Social Media Links: Susan Aldridge Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrSusanAldridge Susan Aldridge LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drsusanaldridge/ The Change Leader’s Social Media Links: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drdrumm/ Twitter: @thechangeldr Email: podcast@changinghighered.com

The financial crisis of 2008 was tough for the country, but the real impact will hit colleges in the year 2026. It turns out the fiscal anxieties coincided with a dramatic birth dearth—a reduction in the number of children born, which means that the number of kids hitting traditional college age will drop almost 15 percent around 2026. That could amount to a crisis for colleges, unless they start planning now. That’s the argument of Nathan Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College. He’s author of a new book with a very straightforward title: Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education. EdSurge recently sat down with Grawe, who described how this slow-moving storm raises existential questions for higher education.

Carleton College economics professor Nathan Grawe, author of “Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,” talks to Jeff and Michael about how higher ed leaders are dealing with the constantly changing demographics of college applicants.

  Professor Nathan Grawe of Carleton College developed a demographic model which says that ’round about 2030 this country is going to lose a giant share of its population of college-going age. How will this... The post Episode 23: Prof. Nathan Grawe on the Changing Demographics of America’s College Bound appeared first on The Crush.