NonProphets

Episode 101 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss developments in artificial intelligence with Atief's friend Nathan, a businessman and engineer who recently attended a hack-a-thon devoted to A.I. projects. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/20/2023).(Intro: Jonathan Richman & The Modern Lovers - I Have Come Out To Play)

Episode 100 of NonProphets, in which Scott discusses his recent humanitarian/food tourist trip to Ukraine (00:17), before Atief's four-year-old daughter Beatrice decides to drop in at the end of the podcast (30:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 6/10/2022)

In episode 99 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview superforecaster and Latin American politics expert James Bosworth. We talk with Boz about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latin America (2:35); authoritarian populism in Latin America (15:22); the impact of the pandemic on Latin America (19:16); the anti-incumbency wave in Latin American politics (23:22); what Jair Bolsonaro will do if he loses the upcoming election in Brazil (33:51); the prospects for addressing corruption in Latin America (45:13); and whether the US pays enough attention to the region. Boz writes about Latin American politics on Substack at Latin America Risk Report. You can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/17/22)

In episode 98 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview Dr. Milo Jones, a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Changing Character of War Programme as well as a Visiting Professor at the IE Business School in Madrid. He is also the author Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001. We talk with Dr. Jones about the value of cognitive diversity in intelligence work (2:04); how asking the right questions can help us avoid strategic surprise (14:48); the importance of communicating intelligence analysis (24:19); whether Putin is in Zugzwang in Ukraine (31:01); whether Chinese mediation could provide an off-ramp for Putin in Ukraine (35:11); improving strategic empathy for other identities and cultures (42:02); the role of psychological profiling (56:26); and the advantages of living in a free society (1:00:20). You can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/4/22)

Episode 97 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and Dr. Balkan Devlen discuss the war in Ukraine, including their forecasts of the possibility of war (1:15), the possible mindset of Putin (4:18), the way Russia's relationship with China may shape the conflict (22:29), the "Animal Farm" approach to sovereignty (22:38), and the possibility of some form of escalation (41:26). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/25/2022)For more from the entertaining and deeply knowledgeable Dr. Devlen, you can and should check out:https://twitter.com/BalkanDevlenhttps://www.balkandevlen.com/Hindsight 20/20 https://h2020.substack.com

In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022. 0:24 Pantone failure4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions)6:00 Will the pandemic fade?12:20 Huntington's Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of the shift?16:45 The conflict in Ukraine27:15 Turkey – Erdogan and the economy33:30 US domestic politics (More Covid),38:20 Supreme Court cases (Roe v. Wade), 45:00 Mid-term elections52:50 What will be the biggest stories of 2022?59:05 Urea!You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 95 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of forecasting the Pantone Color of the Year. They demonstrate their borderline peerless knowledge of fashion and design trends, as well as the "zeitgeist," before making their final predictions (38:34). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/3/2021)

Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, and Scott Eastman talk about where Atief's family should move and why

Episode 93 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview fellow superforecaster Kjirste Morrell. Kjirste is a mechanical engineer and was interviewed for Adam Grant's recent bestseller Think Again. We discuss forecasting from an engineer's perspective (0:10); the value of comments on a forecasting question (4:30); what Kjirste meant by the phrase "the joy of being wrong" (8:35); how to combat bias in forecasting (14:05); a couple of tricky, longer-term Metaculus questions (29:15); how many people will have set foot on the moon by 2030 (46:25); and Kjirste's experience working on the Segway at Dean Kamen's DEKA Research. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/14/2021)

Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (01:04); how they forecast hurricanes (04:45); what a "spaghetti plot" is (13:47); how they evaluate the accuracy of hurricane forecasts (16:06); how they make sure they communicate their forecasts in a useful way (24:32); how to communicate low-probability-high-impact events (29:55); why they don't use the term "vivid lightning" (41:36); why forecasts inherently have no value (44:42); and how to prepare communities to be resilient (55:41). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/30/2021)

Episode 91 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about their experiences with the vaccine rollout and when they think things are likely to return to normal (01:40); the prospects for bipartisan legislation in US politics (37:06); and whether it depends on filibuster reform in the US Senate (44:45). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/20/2021)

Episode 90 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the final days of the Trump presidency and the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol. They take a victory lap for predicting one of th3 2021 Pantone colors of the Year (1:35); look back to their 2016 forecasts for the Trump administration (Episode 16), and look forward at how the Biden will compare (5:00); give their prognosis for whether Biden will encounter anything as serious as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic (14:30); discuss how much the threat of violence informs congressional decisions (23:30) and the future of the Republican Party and of Trumpism. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 1/10/2021)

  Episode 89 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US election results and forecast the 2021 Pantone color of the year. They talk about what happened in the US election (01:51); what will happen in the Senate special elections in Georgia (09:26); whether polls are any good (14:04); the paranoid style in American politics (21:31); whether Joe Biden can govern a divided country (28:14); who Donald Trump will pardon (this podcast was recorded before the Trump pardoned Michael Flynn) (32:22); how American democracy performed in the election (34:49); and what the 2021 Pantone color of the year will be (43:42).

Episode 88 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the election advertising that they've experienced (00:47), before diving into the upcoming US election (07:32), including discussing QAnon, the possibility of right- and left-wing violence, and the possible effects of the pandemic on the results (30:55). They close by giving their electoral votes predictions (49:05). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/24/2020)

Episode 87 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the breaking news about Trump's tax returns (00:52) before debating the probability of a dramatic rise in right-wing violence (21:14), and the effects of Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court in the context of Roe vs. Wade (47:42) and a possible return to the Lochner Era (54:32). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/27/2020)

Episode 86 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief (00:40), Robert (07:22), and Scott (11:29) catch up on what they've been up to over the last few months, and then discuss Camus and the effects of Covid-19 (17:38). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/18/2020)

Episode 85 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Justin Crow, superforecaster and Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology for the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about social epidemiology and how it's relevant to understanding the Covid-19 pandemic (00:40); Liberty University's return to school (05:40); the CDC CASPER household survey and testing to help determine when we can safely relax stay at home and social distancing orders (12:30); the prospect of Covid-19 spreading to rural areas (21:00); how to control Covid-19 and still enjoy life (23:20); when should society re-open (36:40); and his recommendations (44:50). Justin's comments are his private opinions and should not be taken as official statements or policy of the Virginia Department of Health. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/5/2020)

Episode 84 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The podcast begins with an inside view of the Good Judgment / Open Philanthropy public site where forecasts and analysis of where the US and the world will be in one year are discussed. Atief's view from the heartland (Missouri) (4:50), Scott's view of the Romanian response and Robert's perspective on Hawaii, contrast how the disease is progressing and how disparate governments and cultures are responding. Travel restrictions (20:00) and stay at home orders are being implemented, but how are they received? The moral question of whether to send or not to send whiskey to a friend during an epidemic is broached. A wager (45:55) on who will get the virus first wraps up this episode. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/22/2020)

Episode 83 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Covid-19 virus from the perspectives of Scott in Romania (1:48), Robert in Hawaii (19:44), and Atief in Missouri (36:50). They close with two age-old questions: how many monkeys is this? (44:06); and, why wasn't Jared unleashed sooner? (50:57). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. Note that this was recorded on 3/14/2020, and, while much of it remains relevant, it does not reflect the many legislative and social changes over the past week. OTBMFE.

Episode 82 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview former Charlottesville mayor Michael Signer about his new book, Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege. We talk to Mike about why he thinks American democracy is under siege (00:43); what makes President Trump a demagogue (07:48); whether the Electoral College can protect us from demagogues (11:52); how the national political climate affected events in Charlottesville (19:45); the importance of respecting people we disagree with in politics (22:58); whether constitutionalism can prevail against demagoguery (36:59); and why Mike endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president (43:35). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/21/2020)

Episode 81 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of attempting to accurately predict the upcoming Pantone Color of the Year. As part of their conversation, they discuss the concept of a "genderless color" (3:31), the set of colors from which they suspect the selection will be chosen (23:58), what is an "ecosexual" as opposed to an "echosexual" (27:26), and their ultimate predictions (45:37). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/23/2019)

Episode 80 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a call from a NonProphets listener who used to help produce MemCons (record of the President's calls) in the Situation Room for the NSC. The listener reached out to us after Episode 78 with details about both what we and the media understand about Trump's conversation with President Zelensky of Ukraine, and where the details don't add up. The podcast begins with Scott's recounting of the conversation, the technicalities as well as implications of moving a MemCon from the TNet system to the NICE system (6:49), Ukraine's predicament, Lt. Col. Vindman and Ambassador Taylor (13:45), impeachment (21:00), Baghdadi, Trump, and the Nationals, all in a day (30:30), and finally we end on a light note, anticipating our annual Pantone color podcast. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/28/2019)

Episode 79 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Tyson zones (1:00), A letter to Erdogan - Trump, the Kurds and nuclear weapons (2:29), Forecasting in the time of Trump - an exercise in Kremlinology? (27:10), Moscow Mitch and now Tulsi Gabbard? (30:14), Forecasting in a post-Trump world, (38:30), The indefinite Presidency (44:48), Predicting the next week (57:10). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/19/2019)

Episode 78 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Trump impeachment odds. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now (01:18); whether we have reached peak whataboutism (04:23); the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House (11:44); the role of public opinion (33:05); whether Mitch McConnell could prevent a trial from taking place in the Senate (40:22); and the chance that Donald Trump is convicted in the Senate (51:17). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/28/2019)

Episode 77 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a request for listener input on the Pantone Color of the Year (2:59), Iran and Saudi Arabia (8:47), with a detour into Russian/Ukrainian cultural cynicism (18:06), and the Trump whistleblower scandal/contretemps/nothing burger (25:39). They close with a discussion of the Democratic candidates, including Atief's recent purchase of a steeply discounted seat on the Marianne Williamson bandwagon. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/21/2019).

Episode 76 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they did over the summer (01:05); why they've been less enthusiastic about following politics lately (06:03); what they think about the Democratic primary debates so far (10:49); whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low (18:29); to what extent we're responsible for the ethics and policies of the candidate we support (28:50); the weakening of the principle of stare decisis in American politics (37:49); and American values and the politics of resentment (41:00). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 8/2/2019)

Episode 75 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range and The Sports Gene. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short (00:38); how to adapt to "wicked" learning environments (03:10); why "omnivorous generalists" are better at forecasting (18:40); how his research influenced the way he will raise his own child (29:00); what we get wrong about Mozart and Tiger Woods (33:40); the advantages of having students explore topics broadly rather than teaching them narrow skills (38:45); the value of "skill-stacking (50:00); and his experience interviewing Sir Roger Bannister (56:40). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/23/2019)

Episode 74 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ethics of providing information, such as forecasts, to clients (00:45), why public information may be preferable to private when it comes to managing the risk of information misuse (13:12), and why it's so much simpler, from a moral perspective, to just paint houses (17:31). They close with a discussion of recent forecasts by Nancy Pelosi (19:04) and Jared Diamond (32:19), a discussion that includes the definition of "Schrödinger's Asshole" (21:10). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/12/2019).

Episode 73 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview UC Santa Cruz cosmologist and Metaculus co-founder Anthony Aguirre. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus (01:10); forecasting the far future and catastrophic events (14:08); forecasting the development of AI (21:30); calibrating forecasts (29:25); catastrophic risk and the Future of Life Institute (40:06); and exotic risks, including biotechnology, space weather, and vacuum decay (49:07). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/15/2019)

Episode 72 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview superforecaster and novelist Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series of spy novels set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels (00:39); what will become of the Iran nuclear deal (08:56); how common conspiracies are in real life (14:05); his forthcoming work set during the siege of Aleppo (20:48); how he researches his books (25:10); the Middle East's prospects (27:16); what other authors have influenced his style (35:58); and what his fans are like (45:54). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/1/2019)

Episode 71 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss managing the risks associated with emerging technologies (00:28), what's going on in Venezuela (28:05), whether the UK may require aid in the event of a hard Brexit (32:13), as well as the concepts of a "cheese submarine" (35:09) and a "glass cliff" (35:59). They close with a discussion of the 2020 Democratic presidential field, including the relative likelihoods of electing a president who is an atheist, woman, or homosexual or transgender individual (41:08). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/22/2019).

Episode 70 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott forecast listener questions. We discuss who will win Chicago's mayoral election (01:18); whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car (11:56); and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU's GDPR data privacy law (19:09). We close out the episode by talking about Isaac Asimov's prediction for 2019 (38:03) and David Brooks' prediction for 2019 (42:24), and announcing the winner of our 2018 North Korea summit challenge coin (55:07). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 1/5/2019)

Episode 69 of the NonProphets podcast, Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Marc Koehler. Marc is the Vice President of Good Judgment Inc., in charge of government relations and co-head of analytics as well as an accomplished superforecaster. He was simultaneously the top forecaster on the internal Intelligence Community Prediction Market, the Good Judgment Project superforecaster prediction market, and on Hypermind. Marc was formerly in the Foreign Service with postings to the Office of the Vice President, the White House Situation Room, the National Security Council, the Pentagon, and the State Department, and overseas in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Nepal, Hong Kong and Sweden. Marc talks with us about working with Vice President Dick Cheney and Scooter Libby (1:18); the Pentagon Joint Staff and the Office of Net Assessments (4:55); ACE tournament Good Judgment Project and ICPM forecasting—open-source vs. classified information (6:55); how superforecasters think (11:35); how to set up the best predictive intelligence capacity for the US Government (21:50); formulating the right questions (29:27); when the truth is not wanted—North Korean plutonium reactor project in Syria incident (36:42), forecasting Kim Jong-un (39:39); China (47:28); whether we are headed into a Thucydides trap with China? (49:07); the possibility of a new Taiwan Straits Crisis (54:55); and what’s next for Good Judgment (1:00:04). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 01/04/2019)

Episode 68 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott look back at their 2018 forecasts and forward to 2019 (2:23); the significance of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis' resignation for the US' relationship with its allies (8:57); iterated tit-for-tat games (18:00); the normalization of authoritarian politics (22:47); the US government shutdown and the Wall (26:45); our predictions for 2019 and whether Trump will be impeached (38:34); Hungary’s “slave law” (47:32), and whether the UK will leave the EU in 2019 (56:40). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/23/2018)

Episode 67 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott perform their annual ritual of predicting the next Pantone color of the year (00:21), and then discuss their predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year (20:07), both of which are now public. Overtaken by events! But, still fun. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/10/2018)  

Episode 66 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri (01:27); the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again (13:27); voter suppression in the election (25:30); what's going to happen in US politics over the next two years (30:45); whether President Trump will win a second term in 2020 (35:55); who the Democrats will nominate for President (37:41); whether someone will challenge President Trump in the Republican primaries (41:56); and what will happen next with the Mueller investigation (45:30). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/16/2018)

Episode 65 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Predictit (0:15); US midterm elections (7:39); why most conspiracy theories are false (23:04); how no one likes to be laughed at (27:46); the Missouri Senate race (33:02); the possibility of post-election violence (35:47); Trump's claim that he can effectively amend the 14thAmendment (42:38); and Draymond Green and the #fergieremixchallenge (48:58). As always you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/01/2018)

Episode 64 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss whether we should care about nukes (1:15), the difficulty of tackling big problems (4:02), The Invention of Peace, pseudo-events, cruelty, and what we care about (10:16), and national identity and immigration (16:05). They then discuss the midterms, including which issues matter (26:57), the Missouri senate race (29:19), midterm enthusiasm (44:14), the impressiveness of young people (47:08), and calibrating forecasts (49:36). They close with a discussion of the Senate race in Texas (57:38). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/22/2018)

Episode 63 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court in light of allegations that he tried to rape a fifteen-year-old girl when he was in high school. We talk about the PredictIt market for how many votes Kavanaugh will get in the Senate by October 31 (00:20); the nature of the allegations against Kavanaugh (09:38); how hearings might affect the midterm elections in the US; the altercation at an Emmy party between Mark Burnett and Tom Arnold about the rumored Trump Apprentice tapes (38:18); and a few Things Scott Cares About (44:03) As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/18/2018)

Episode 62 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert, with Scott away, talk about a PredictIt deal for users, as well as a frankly fantastic contest the podcast is having for our listeners (00:10). We then discuss the upcoming midterms, including data sources that we find probative (9:12), and the median voter theory, Missouri and Hawaii politics, and races that we find interesting (17:22). We close with a discussion of voter turnout (51:59). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com.

Episode 61 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they were up to all summer while they weren't podcasting. They discuss the anti-terrorism conference sponsored by Iran that Scott attended (00:58); the politicization of the administrative state (07:01); the use of pretexts in political debates (09:43); how Robert lost money by bailing out of a bet about Hawaii politics too early (17:18); how low expectations are eroding norms (19:59); how cute Atief's baby is (22:08); Robert's news fatigue (24:13); corruption and political protests in Romania (26:46); and what news stories we're each following (33:19). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 8/17/2018)

Episode 60 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on what they've been up to, including Atief following the Supreme Court's upcoming Lucia vs. SEC decision (00:55), Robert attending the Hawaii state Democratic convention (16:34), a discussion of being a new parent in the context of national politics (29:47), including which celebrities we would swap in for Trump (34:15), and child-rearing tips, including using babies as props for Halloween and whether honesty is the best policy when it comes to Santa Claus (35:50).  We close with a discussion of the North Korean summit, including the potential value of the commemorative coins (43:17) and which country, among Iran, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia, wants to modernize the most (49:23). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/31/2018).

Episode 59 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Will Jennings, head of public engagement at the political prediction market PredictIt. Will previously worked in the Obama White House and for the vice presidential campaign of Senator Tim Kaine. We talk with Will about what PredictIt is and how it works (00:45); how prediction markets can be sources of news and information (11:07); which markets have been controversial (18:37); who makes money on PredictIt and how they do it (35:11); how PredictIt comes up with specific markets (42:19); and what lessons Will has learned from working on prediction markets (47:27). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/25/2018)

Episode 58 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Byron Reese about his new book, The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity. We talk what motivated the book (00:33); what "the Fourth Age" is (02:00); the role of ideas and culture in history (07:35); whether automation will cause technological unemployment (09:00); whether automation will increase inequality (23:00); what skills we'll need in the future (29:34); whether technological changes will be socially and political disruptive (32:05); why computing and automation hasn't had a larger effect on economic measures of productivity (35:12); what access to the internet is worth (37:10); where fears about AI come from (39:52); what consciousness and free will are (43:11); why Byron is optimistic about the future (53:08). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/2/2018)

Episode 57 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott probe the limits of their new political reality with a thought experiment that they called "Everything's on the Table" (aka "Plausible/Implausible"). After discussing the rules of the game (01:01), they discussed the possibility of an announcement about Korean reunification (4:07), Hungary (Hungaria?) making arrests in a George Soros conspiracy (7:53), Macron discussing Trump's soft hands (13:33), with a diversion into Comey's book (14:26) and the attractiveness of Helen of Troy (16:56), the special counsel indicting Trump (18:23), Trump deciding to just come clean (23:58), and whether Jeff Sessions might destroy the only copy of the Wu-Tang Clan's "Once Upon A Time in Shaolin" (27:08). Things then get full-on Trump-oriented, with a discussion of the plausibility of us learning more about Trump's penis's appearance (31:47) or nickname (33:04), whether he has an illegitimate child (34:59), Giuliani being appointed to investigate Hillary Clinton (38:24), April unemployment numbers and the overall health of the economy (OBE-ish!) (39:15), and leaked tax returns and Trump's personal wealth (40:37). We closed with a discussion of scenarios involving an FBI raid to seize thousands of penises (42:14), and a Boehner/Snoop team-up on SNL (43:32): As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/23/2018)

Episode 56 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss "the backfire effect"—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong. We talk about Andrew Gelman's skepticism of the recent New England Journal of Medicine finding that firearm injuries in the US drop 20% while NRA members are attending national meetings (00:50); how skeptical we should be of research that seem to confirm our preconceptions (04:14); whether evidence can change people's minds (15:27); "The Debunking Handbook" techniques for correcting false ideas (18:48); research into how much contrary information it takes to change people's minds (23:21); whether culture or economics determines election results (29:11); how we avoid bias in forecasting and decision-making (31:25); and how we can stay out of Chumptown (39:20). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/4/2018)

  Episode 55 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss their Predictit account, including the class of questions on which they have been losing money (1:04), as well as how they approach gaining probative information out of Trump administration pronouncements (12:00). They then discuss Russia, including propaganda and assassinations (22:08), whether Scott is a Time Lord (23:57), trust, authenticity, and the Russian concept of "vranyo" (30:14), which national figures have substantial collective trust (36:04), and approaches to political debates and political persuasion (41:03). They close with a discussion of the consequences of the recent self-driving car fatality, as well as the genders, if any, of KITT and KARR (50:04). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/23/2018)  

Episode 54 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about the impact of the Parkland shooting on US politics (01:45); the rapidly shifting Republican orthodoxy (14:32); whether democratic norms are weakening (24:51); Transparency International's 2017 Corruption Index (40:33); whether there will be any material change in US gun laws in the next six months (48:50); and which institutions in the US are seen as corrupt (53:41). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/5/2018)

Episode 53 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about a 1968 collection of essays speculating what 2018 would be like called Toward the Year 2018. We talk about whether it's really possible to predict the future fifty years out (00:19); the difficulty of forecasting changing norms and tastes (05:12); what the book got right and what it got wrong (10:01); how much our lives have changed since 1968 (14:58); how technology is making it harder to know what is real and what is fake (20:45); how technology could make the problems of inequality worse (26:05); how technology is changing our ideas of privacy (28:19); what science fiction scenario is closest to what life will be like in 50 years (35:04); whether there will be more than 100,000 people in space in 50 years (37:34); the problem of technological unemployment (38:27); what country we would want to be born into in 50 years (45:18); and what people 50 years from now will judge us for doing (51:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/23/2018)

Episode 52 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert interview Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran, who leads Good Judgment's question development team, about the nuts and bolts of forecasting. We talk about how forecasts can improve adaptability (09:41); how we would craft clear, meaningful forecasting questions for a hypothetical involving Venezuela and Brazil (13:46); what we can learn from the question design and clarification process (21:18); the rigor-relevance tradeoff (26:52); a collectively painful forecasting experience from years ago (28:35); the collateral benefits of forecasting (37:05); the value of question clusters (44:17); how forecasting has affected how we see the world (55:41); and what Dr. Cochran would do to improve the forecasting ability of the US intelligence community (58:41). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com.  (recorded 1/23/2018)

Episode 51 of the NonProphets podcast in which Robert, Atief and Scott discuss: 00:30 Hawaii's Incoming Ballistic Missile Alert – How 38 minutes did not convince Robert to “Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb” 14:20 Problems With a Bloody Nose Strategy in North Korea 15:55 Roman Hagelstein – Superforecaster, uberforecaster, and unassuming good guy 19:20 The Phil Tetlock-Nassim Taleb Twitter War – The debate about “skin in the game” and “tail risk” 34:25 PredictIt – State of the Union questions 38:10 Passion Over Rationality 41:00 Running for the Doors – Why are so many Congressmen retiring? 46:34 Where the Mueller Investigation Is Heading As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 1/31/2018)