Podcast appearances and mentions of anthony aguirre

The Nonlinear Library: EA Forum Top Posts

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 9, 2022 33:17

Anthony Aguirre and Anna Yelizarova join us to discuss FLI's new Worldbuilding Contest. Topics discussed in this episode include: -Motivations behind the contest -The importance of worldbuilding -The rules of the contest -What a submission consists of -Due date and prizes Learn more about the contest here: https://worldbuild.ai/ Join the discord: https://discord.com/invite/njZyTJpwMz You can find the page for the podcast here: https://futureoflife.org/2022/02/08/anthony-aguirre-and-anna-yelizarova-on-flis-worldbuilding-contest/ Watch the video version of this episode here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZBXSiyienI Follow Lucas on Twitter here: twitter.com/lucasfmperry Have any feedback about the podcast? You can share your thoughts here: www.surveymonkey.com/r/DRBFZCT Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:30 What is "worldbuilding" and FLI's Worldbuilding Contest? 6:32 Why do worldbuilding for 2045? 7:22 Why is it important to practice worldbuilding? 13:50 What are the rules of the contest? 19:53 What does a submission consist of? 22:16 Due dates and prizes? 25:58 Final thoughts and how the contest contributes to creating beneficial futures This podcast is possible because of the support of listeners like you. If you found this conversation to be meaningful or valuable, consider supporting it directly by donating at futureoflife.org/donate. Contributions like yours make these conversations possible.

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Long-Term Future Fund: April 2019 grant recommendations by Habryka

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2021 75:46

welcome to the nonlinear library, where we use text-to-speech software to convert the best writing from the rationalist and ea communities into audio. this is: Long-Term Future Fund: April 2019 grant recommendations, published by Habryka on the effective altruism forum. Please note that the following grants are only recommendations, as all grants are still pending an internal due diligence process by CEA. This post contains our allocation and some explanatory reasoning for our Q1 2019 grant round. We opened up an application for grant requests earlier this year which was open for about one month, after which we received an unanticipated large donation of about $715k. This caused us to reopen the application for another two weeks. We then used a mixture of independent voting and consensus discussion to arrive at our current grant allocation. What is listed below is only a set of grant recommendations to CEA, who will run these by a set of due-diligence tests to ensure that they are compatible with their charitable objectives and that making these grants will be logistically feasible. Grant Recipients Each grant recipient is followed by the size of the grant and their one-sentence description of their project. Anthony Aguirre ($70,000): A major expansion of the Metaculus prediction platform and its community Tessa Alexanian ($26,250): A biorisk summit for the Bay Area biotech industry, DIY biologists, and biosecurity researchers Shahar Avin ($40,000): Scaling up scenario role-play for AI strategy research and training; improving the pipeline for new researchers Lucius Caviola ($50,000): Conducting postdoctoral research at Harvard on the psychology of EA/long-termism Connor Flexman ($20,000): Performing independent research in collaboration with John Salvatier Ozzie Gooen ($70,000): Building infrastructure for the future of effective forecasting efforts Johannes Heidecke ($25,000): Supporting aspiring researchers of AI alignment to boost themselves into productivity David Girardo ($30,000): A research agenda rigorously connecting the internal and external views of value synthesis Nikhil Kunapuli ($30,000): A study of safe exploration and robustness to distributional shift in biological complex systems Jacob Lagerros ($27,000): Building infrastructure to give X-risk researchers superforecasting ability with minimal overhead Lauren Lee ($20,000): Working to prevent burnout and boost productivity within the EA and X-risk communities Alex Lintz ($17,900): A two-day, career-focused workshop to inform and connect European EAs interested in AI governance Orpheus Lummis ($10,000): Upskilling in contemporary AI techniques, deep RL, and AI safety, before pursuing a ML PhD Vyacheslav Matyuhin ($50,000): An offline community hub for rationalists and EAs Tegan McCaslin ($30,000): Conducting independent research into AI forecasting and strategy questions Robert Miles ($39,000): Producing video content on AI alignment Anand Srinivasan ($30,000): Formalizing perceptual complexity with application to safe intelligence amplification Alex Turner ($30,000): Building towards a “Limited Agent Foundations” thesis on mild optimization and corrigibility Eli Tyre ($30,000): Broad project support for rationality and community building interventions Mikhail Yagudin ($28,000): Giving copies of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality to the winners of EGMO 2019 and IMO 2020 CFAR ($150,000): Unrestricted donation MIRI ($50,000): Unrestricted donation Ought ($50,000): Unrestricted donation Total distributed: $923,150 Grant Rationale Here we explain the purpose for each grant and summarize our reasoning behind their recommendation. Each summary is written by the fund member who was most excited about recommending the relevant grant (plus some constraints on who had time available to write up their reasoning). These differ a lot in length, based on how much available time the different fund members had to explain their reasoning. Writeups by Helen Toner Al...

Robin Hanson | Anthony Aguirre | Paul Gebheim | Thomas Pfeiffer | Martin Koeppelmann | Chris Hibbert | Prediction Markets

The Foresight Institute Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2021 73:30

“We want to create a system where incentives for prediction are transparent and clear to make good predictions. Furthermore, we want these predictions to be integrated into a consensus that we could all use and rely on if we weren't specialists in the topic.” - Robin HansonToday we will discuss prediction markets and the problems they may help solve. We'll hear a brief introduction of what Prediction Markets are by Robin Hanson, followed by a discussion of a few current projects (Metaculus, Augur, Replication Markets), and finish with a rundown of the challenges ahead by Chris Hibbert of Agoric and Martin Koeppelmann of Gnosis.This episode of the podcast is a special one, it features several guests speaking on the topic of prediction markets. They cover concepts, early prototypes, current (decentralized) applications, potential problems and future opportunities.Speakers: Robin Hanson - George Mason UniversityAnthony Aguirre - MetaculusPaul Gebheim - AugurThomas Pfeiffer - Replication MarketsMartin Koeppelmann - GnosisChris Hibbert - Agoric Session Summary: Prediction & Replication Markets, Augur, Metaculus, Gnosis, Oracle Problems, Beauty Contests - Foresight InstituteThe Foresight Institute is a research organization and non-profit that supports the beneficial development of high-impact technologies. Since our founding in 1987 on a vision of guiding powerful technologies, we have continued to evolve into a many-armed organization that focuses on several fields of science and technology that are too ambitious for legacy institutions to support.Allison Duettmann is the president and CEO of Foresight Institute. She directs the Intelligent Cooperation, Molecular Machines, Biotech & Health Extension, Neurotech, and Space Programs, Fellowships, Prizes, and Tech Trees, and shares this work with the public. She founded Existentialhope.com, co-edited Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy, co-authored Gaming the Future, and co-initiated The Longevity Prize. Apply to Foresight's virtual salons and in person workshops here!We are entirely funded by your donations. If you enjoy what we do please consider donating through our donation page.Visit our website for more content, or join us here:TwitterFacebookLinkedInEvery word ever spoken on this podcast is now AI-searchable using Fathom.fm, a search engine for podcasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anthony Aguirre: Cosmological Koans

Into the Impossible

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2021 87:57

Physicist Anthony Aguirre studies the formation, nature, and evolution of the universe, focusing primarily on the model of eternal inflation—the idea that inflation goes on forever in some regions of universe—and what it may mean for the ultimate beginning of the universe and time. He is the co-founder and associate scientific director of the Foundational Questions Institute, which supports research on questions at the foundations and new frontiers of physics and cosmology. Anthony is also a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, an organization aiming to increase the probability that life has a future, and of Metaculus, an effort to optimally aggregate predictions about scientific discoveries, technological breakthroughs, and other interesting issues. Cosmological Koans: A Journey to the Heart of Physical Reality, physicist Anthony Aguirre explores deep questions about the nature of reality, using an approach inspired by Zen koans to take the reader on a thought-provoking tour of the cosmos and the core ideas of modern physics. The book covers a wide range of topics, woven together with a fictional storyline that recounts a journey from Italy to Japan. Multiple universes, the nature of time, the meaning of quantum theory, and entropy and information are among the subjects explored. @AnthonyNAguirre http://fqxi.org/ http://www.futureoflife.org/ https://www.amazon.com/Cosmological-Koans-Journey-Physical-Reality/dp/0393609219 00:00:00 Intro 00:06:22 Why did you right Cosmological Koans? 00:11:48 How do you reconcile the mysteries unanswered by physics? 00:17:08 Are you a Buddhist? Views on theology and the nature of reality. 00:22:18 Do we need a theory of everything? 00:31:56 Why did you set the book for when you did in the 1600s? 00:39:01 About the historic period in which the book is set. 00:41:23 What you have to say about cosmogenesis and big bang cosmology? 00:50:52 Thoughts on the multiverse theory. Could other universes have different constants? 01:11:56 How much of physics/cosmology is really sociology and our need to believe? 01:21:42 What discovery gift of knowledge would you put into a time capsule for the ages? LinkedIn Jobs is the best platform for finding the right candidate to join your business this fall. It's the largest marketplace for job seekers in the world, and it has great search features so that you can find candidates with any hard or soft skills that you need. And now, you can post a job for free. Just visit linkedin.com/impossible to post a job for free. Audible is hands-down my favorite platform for consuming podcasts, fiction and nonfiction books! With an Audible membership, you can download titles and listen offline, anytime, anywhere. The Audible app is free and can be installed on all smartphones and tablets. You can listen across devices without losing your spot. Audible members don't have to worry about using their credits right away. You can keep your credits for up to a year—and use them to binge on a whole series if you'd like! Start your free 30-day trial today: Audible.com/impossible or text “impossible” to 500-500

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Joscha Bach and Anthony Aguirre on Digital Physics and Moving Towards Beneficial Futures

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2021 98:17

Joscha Bach, Cognitive Scientist and AI researcher, as well as Anthony Aguirre, UCSC Professor of Physics, join us to explore the world through the lens of computation and the difficulties we face on the way to beneficial futures. Topics discussed in this episode include: -Understanding the universe through digital physics -How human consciousness operates and is structured -The path to aligned AGI and bottlenecks to beneficial futures -Incentive structures and collective coordination You can find the page for this podcast here: https://futureoflife.org/2021/03/31/joscha-bach-and-anthony-aguirre-on-digital-physics-and-moving-towards-beneficial-futures/ You can find FLI's three new policy focused job postings here: futureoflife.org/job-postings/ Have any feedback about the podcast? You can share your thoughts here: www.surveymonkey.com/r/DRBFZCT Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:17 What is truth and knowledge? 11:39 What is subjectivity and objectivity? 14:32 What is the universe ultimately? 19:22 Is the universe a cellular automaton? Is the universe ultimately digital or analogue? 24:05 Hilbert's hotel from the point of view of computation 35:18 Seeing the world as a fractal 38:48 Describing human consciousness 51:10 Meaning, purpose, and harvesting negentropy 55:08 The path to aligned AGI 57:37 Bottlenecks to beneficial futures and existential security 1:06:53 A future with one, several, or many AGI systems? How do we maintain appropriate incentive structures? 1:19:39 Non-duality and collective coordination 1:22:53 What difficulties are there for an idealist worldview that involves computation? 1:27:20 Which features of mind and consciousness are necessarily coupled and which aren't? 1:36:40 Joscha's final thoughts on AGI This podcast is possible because of the support of listeners like you. If you found this conversation to be meaningful or valuable, consider supporting it directly by donating at futureoflife.org/donate. Contributions like yours make these conversations possible.

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Max Tegmark and the FLI Team on 2020 and Existential Risk Reduction in the New Year

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2021 60:41

Max Tegmark and members of the FLI core team come together to discuss favorite projects from 2020, what we've learned from the past year, and what we think is needed for existential risk reduction in 2021. Topics discussed in this episode include: -FLI's perspectives on 2020 and hopes for 2021 -What our favorite projects from 2020 were -The biggest lessons we've learned from 2020 -What we see as crucial and needed in 2021 to ensure and make -improvements towards existential safety You can find the page for this podcast here: https://futureoflife.org/2021/01/08/max-tegmark-and-the-fli-team-on-2020-and-existential-risk-reduction-in-the-new-year/ Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 00:52 First question: What was your favorite project from 2020? 1:03 Max Tegmark on the Future of Life Award 4:15 Anthony Aguirre on AI Loyalty 9:18 David Nicholson on the Future of Life Award 12:23 Emilia Javorksy on being a co-champion for the UN Secretary-General's effort on digital cooperation 14:03 Jared Brown on developing comments on the European Union's White Paper on AI through community collaboration 16:40 Tucker Davey on editing the biography of Victor Zhdanov 19:49 Lucas Perry on the podcast and Pindex video 23:17 Second question: What lessons do you take away from 2020? 23:26 Max Tegmark on human fragility and vulnerability 25:14 Max Tegmark on learning from history 26:47 Max Tegmark on the growing threats of AI 29:45 Anthony Aguirre on the inability of present-day institutions to deal with large unexpected problems 33:00 David Nicholson on the need for self-reflection on the use and development of technology 38:05 Emilia Javorsky on the global community coming to awareness about tail risks 39:48 Jared Brown on our vulnerability to low probability, high impact events and the importance of adaptability and policy engagement 41:43 Tucker Davey on taking existential risks more seriously and ethics-washing 43:57 Lucas Perry on the fragility of human systems 45:40 Third question: What is needed in 2021 to make progress on existential risk mitigation 45:50 Max Tegmark on holding Big Tech accountable, repairing geopolitics, and fighting the myth of the technological zero-sum game 49:58 Anthony Aguirre on the importance of spreading understanding of expected value reasoning and fixing the information crisis 53:41 David Nicholson on the need to reflect on our values and relationship with technology 54:35 Emilia Javorksy on the importance of returning to multilateralism and global dialogue 56:00 Jared Brown on the need for robust government engagement 57:30 Lucas Perry on the need for creating institutions for existential risk mitigation and global cooperation 1:00:10 Outro This podcast is possible because of the support of listeners like you. If you found this conversation to be meaningful or valuable, consider supporting it directly by donating at futureoflife.org/donate. Contributions like yours make these conversations possible.

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FLI Podcast: Lessons from COVID-19 with Emilia Javorsky and Anthony Aguirre

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2020 86:36

The global spread of COVID-19 has put tremendous stress on humanity’s social, political, and economic systems. The breakdowns triggered by this sudden stress indicate areas where national and global systems are fragile, and where preventative and preparedness measures may be insufficient. The COVID-19 pandemic thus serves as an opportunity for reflecting on the strengths and weaknesses of human civilization and what we can do to help make humanity more resilient. The Future of Life Institute's Emilia Javorsky and Anthony Aguirre join us on this special episode of the FLI Podcast to explore the lessons that might be learned from COVID-19 and the perspective this gives us for global catastrophic and existential risk. Topics discussed in this episode include: -The importance of taking expected value calculations seriously -The need for making accurate predictions -The difficulty of taking probabilities seriously -Human psychological bias around estimating and acting on risk -The massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine, Metaculus -The risks and benefits of synthetic biology in the 21st Century You can find the page for this podcast here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/08/lessons-from-covid-19-with-emilia-javorsky-and-anthony-aguirre/ Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:35 How has COVID-19 demonstrated weakness in human systems and risk preparedness 4:50 The importance of expected value calculations and considering risks over timescales 10:50 The importance of being able to make accurate predictions 14:15 The difficulty of trusting probabilities and acting on low probability high cost risks 21:22 Taking expected value calculations seriously 24:03 The lack of transparency, explanation, and context around how probabilities are estimated and shared 28:00 Diffusion of responsibility and other human psychological weaknesses in thinking about risk 38:19 What Metaculus is and its relevance to COVID-19 45:57 What is the accuracy of predictions on Metaculus and what has it said about COVID-19? 50:31 Lessons for existential risk from COVID-19 58:42 The risk of synthetic bio enabled pandemics in the 21st century 01:17:35 The extent to which COVID-19 poses challenges to democratic institutions This podcast is possible because of the support of listeners like you. If you found this conversation to be meaningful or valuable consider supporting it directly by donating at futureoflife.org/donate. Contributions like yours make these conversations possible.

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FLI Podcast: Identity, Information & the Nature of Reality with Anthony Aguirre

Groundless Ground Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 31, 2020 105:20

Our perceptions of reality are based on the physics of interactions ranging from millimeters to miles in scale. But when it comes to the very small and the very massive, our intuitions often fail us. Given the extent to which modern physics challenges our understanding of the world around us, how wrong could we be about the fundamental nature of reality? And given our failure to anticipate the counterintuitive nature of the universe, how accurate are our intuitions about metaphysical and personal identity? Just how seriously should we take our everyday experiences of the world? Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist and FLI co-founder, returns for a second episode to offer his perspective on these complex questions. This conversation explores the view that reality fundamentally consists of information and examines its implications for our understandings of existence and identity. Topics discussed in this episode include: - Views on the nature of reality - Quantum mechanics and the implications of quantum uncertainty - Identity, information and description - Continuum of objectivity/subjectivity You can find the page and transcript for this podcast here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/01/31/fli-podcast-identity-information-the-nature-of-reality-with-anthony-aguirre/ Timestamps: 3:35 - General history of views on fundamental reality 9:45 - Quantum uncertainty and observation as interaction 24:43 - The universe as constituted of information 29:26 - What is information and what does the view of reality as information have to say about objects and identity 37:14 - Identity as on a continuum of objectivity and subjectivity 46:09 - What makes something more or less objective? 58:25 - Emergence in physical reality and identity 1:15:35 - Questions about the philosophy of identity in the 21st century 1:27:13 - Differing views on identity changing human desires 1:33:28 - How the reality as information perspective informs questions of identity 1:39:25 - Concluding thoughts This podcast is possible because of the support of listeners like you. If you found this conversation to be meaningful or valuable consider supporting it directly by donating at futureoflife.org/donate. Contributions like yours make these conversations possible.

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Anthony Aguirre: Cosmological Koans

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2019 60:40

If it is not by now fully apparent how much I love science, this conversation, well more accurately this rare chance to sit at the feet of a science master, is proof that there is nothing more surprising and profound than the physics of space, time, information, and quantum reality. Cosmologist, UCSC physics professor, science activist, and author Anthony Aguirre, generously discusses the intricacies of deep reality he shares in his astonishingly creative new book titled, Cosmological Koans: A Journey to the Heart of Physical Reality. His book transported me into a multifaceted explanatory world of historical fiction, mathematics and mind-blowing truths about our cosmos and the nature of reality itself. It should be at the top of everyone’s gift giving book list. Anthony is a rare jewel. In addition to his teaching and research, he has co-founded two seminal institutes: One supporting cutting-edge physics and other focused on the evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Biotech, energy and climate disruption. Links to both websites are included in the show notes and I urge every listener to visit these resources. The last part of our conversation probes the perils and promise of AI, a tidal wave of change every human should be both excited and concerned about.Listen on Lisa's YouTube ChannelAnthony Aguirre is a professor of physics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and the associate scientific director of the Foundational Questions Institute a nonprofit organization that he co-founded and co-runs He is also co-founder of Future of Life Institute. Anthony received his doctorate in astronomy from Harvard University in 2000 and then spent three years as a member of the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton before accepting a professorship in the physics department of the University of California, Santa Cruz. He has worked on a wide variety of topics in theoretical cosmology (the study of the formation, nature, and evolution of the universe), including the early universe and inflation, gravity physics, first stars, the intergalactic medium, galaxy formation, and black holes.

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FLI Podcast: Cosmological Koans: A Journey to the Heart of Physical Reality with Anthony Aguirre

Commonwealth Club of California Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2019 91:20

There exist many facts about the nature of reality which stand at odds with our commonly held intuitions and experiences of the world. Ultimately, there is a relativity of the simultaneity of events and there is no universal "now." Are these facts baked into our experience of the world? Or are our experiences and intuitions at odds with these facts? When we consider this, the origins of our mental models, and what modern physics and cosmology tell us about the nature of reality, we are beckoned to identify our commonly held experiences and intuitions, to analyze them in the light of modern science and philosophy, and to come to new implicit, explicit, and experiential understandings of reality. In his book Cosmological Koans: A Journey to the Heart of Physical Reality, FLI co-founder Anthony Aguirre explores the nature of space, time, motion, quantum physics, cosmology, the observer, identity, and existence itself through Zen koans fueled by science and designed to elicit questions, experiences, and conceptual shifts in the reader. The universe can be deeply counter-intuitive at many levels and this conversation, rooted in Anthony's book, is an attempt at exploring this problem and articulating the contemporary frontiers of science and philosophy. Topics discussed include: -What is skillful of a synergy of Zen and scientific reasoning -The history and philosophy of science -The role of the observer in science and knowledge -The nature of information -What counts as real -The world in and of itself and the world we experience as populated by our concepts and models of it -Identity in human beings and future AI systems -Questions of how identity should evolve -Responsibilities and open questions associated with architecting life 3.0 You can find the podcast page, including the transcript, here: https://futureoflife.org/2019/10/31/cosmological-koans-a-journey-to-the-heart-of-physical-reality-with-anthony-aguirre/

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Ep. 85 - Metaculus: Aggregating emotions, expertise, and data into Prediction Engine

The Local Maximum

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 24, 2019 47:32

Part 2 of Max's discussion with Anthony Aguirre, cofounder of the Metaculus prediction engine. Topics include: - The difference between making short term, long term, and theoretical predictions - The human mind and human emotions - as imperfect as they are - being world's best tool for prediction making - Calibrating your probabilities, on an individual and group level - Predictions of humor-detecting AI, waking up after being cryogenically frozen, and political developments localmaxradio.com/85 metaculus.com

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Ep. 84 - Big Questions about the Universe with Anthony Aguirre

The Local Maximum

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2019 42:18

Max talks to cosmologist Anthony Aguirre about the fundamental nature of the universe, with the following questions: Is the Space Discrete or Continuous? How does our physics differ from Virtual Reality, or the model we have in our brain? What is Fourier space? What does it mean that the universe is made of information? Is there a fundamental bit? In most cases, things aren't what they seem! Check out Anthony's Book on the subject: Cosmological Koans. localmaxradio.com/84

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Cosmological Koans

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2019 58:26

This event is the latest in our member-led forums' Art and Science of Well-Being series. Cosmological Koans invites you to take an intellectual journey through more than 50 koans: pleasingly paradoxical vignettes following the ancient Zen tradition. Anthony Aguirre traverses the world from West to East, and through ideas spanning the age, breadth and depth of the universe. Using beguiling koans and a flair for explaining complex science, Aguirre covers cosmic questions that thinkers from Aristotle to Galileo to Heisenberg have grappled with. A playful and enlightening book, Cosmological Koans explores the strange hinterland between the deep structure of the physical world and our personal experience of it. MLF Organizer: George Hammond MLF: Humanities Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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51 | Anthony Aguirre on Cosmology, Zen, Entropy, and Information

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2019 91:52

Cosmologists have a standard set of puzzles they think about: the nature of dark matter and dark energy, whether there was a period of inflation, the evolution of structure, and so on. But there are also even deeper questions, having to do with why there is a universe at all, and why the early universe had low entropy, that most working cosmologists don’t address. Today’s guest, Anthony Aguirre, is an exception. We talk about these deep issues, and how tackling them might lead to a very different way of thinking about our universe. At the end there’s an entertaining detour into AI and existential risk. Anthony Aguirre received his Ph.D. in Astronomy from Harvard University. He is currently associate professor of physics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, where his research involves cosmology, inflation, and fundamental questions in physics. His new book, Cosmological Koans, is an exploration of the principles of contemporary cosmology illustrated with short stories in the style of Zen Buddhism. He is the co-founder of the Foundational Questions Institute, the Future of Life Institute, and the prediction platform Metaculus. Web site UCSC web page Google Scholar page Wikipedia Amazon.com author page Foundational Questions Institute Future of Life Institute Metaculus Twitter

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Ep. 73: Metaculus (Anthony Aguirre Interview)

NonProphets

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2019

Episode 73 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview UC Santa Cruz cosmologist and Metaculus co-founder Anthony Aguirre. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus (01:10); forecasting the far future and catastrophic events (14:08); forecasting the development of AI (21:30); calibrating forecasts (29:25); catastrophic risk and the Future of Life Institute (40:06); and exotic risks, including biotechnology, space weather, and vacuum decay (49:07). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/15/2019)

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Existential Hope in 2019 and Beyond

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 21, 2018 126:15

Humanity is at a turning point. For the first time in history, we have the technology to completely obliterate ourselves. But we’ve also created boundless possibilities for all life that could enable just about any brilliant future we can imagine. Humanity could erase itself with a nuclear war or a poorly designed AI, or we could colonize space and expand life throughout the universe: As a species, our future has never been more open-ended. The potential for disaster is often more visible than the potential for triumph, so as we prepare for 2019, we want to talk about existential hope, and why we should actually be more excited than ever about the future. In this podcast, Ariel talks to six experts--Anthony Aguirre, Max Tegmark, Gaia Dempsey, Allison Duettmann, Josh Clark, and Anders Sandberg--about their views on the present, the future, and the path between them. Anthony and Max are both physics professors and cofounders of FLI. Gaia is a tech enthusiast and entrepreneur, and with her newest venture, 7th Future, she’s focusing on bringing people and organizations together to imagine and figure out how to build a better future. Allison is a researcher and program coordinator at the Foresight Institute and creator of the website existentialhope.com. Josh is cohost on the Stuff You Should Know Podcast, and he recently released a 10-part series on existential risks called The End of the World with Josh Clark. Anders is a senior researcher at the Future of Humanity Institute with a background in computational neuroscience, and for the past 20 years, he’s studied the ethics of human enhancement, existential risks, emerging technology, and life in the far future. We hope you’ll come away feeling inspired and motivated--not just to prevent catastrophe, but to facilitate greatness. Topics discussed in this episode include: How technology aids us in realizing personal and societal goals. FLI’s successes in 2018 and our goals for 2019. Worldbuilding and how to conceptualize the future. The possibility of other life in the universe and its implications for the future of humanity. How we can improve as a species and strategies for doing so. The importance of a shared positive vision for the future, what that vision might look like, and how a shared vision can still represent a wide enough set of values and goals to cover the billions of people alive today and in the future. Existential hope and what it looks like now and far into the future.

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Rationally Speaking #214 - Anthony Aguirre on "Predicting the future of science and tech, with Metaculus"

Rationally Speaking

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2018 50:29

This episode features physicist Anthony Aguirre discussing Metaculus, the site he created to crowd-source accurate predictions about science and technology. For example, will SpaceX land on Mars by 2030? Anthony and Julia discuss details such as: why it's useful to have predictions on questions like these, how to measure Metaculus' accuracy, why Anthony chose not to run it like a traditional prediction market, and how to design incentives to reward good forecasters.

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60 – 98% Likelihood This Episode is about Metaculus

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2018 120:10

We speak with Anthony Aguirre of Metaculus. Try out Metaculus, it’s neat and helps one train their calibration. Future of Life Institute Rat Chat: Maps vs Buttons; Nerds vs Normies Big thanks to David for our intro music! I’ll add … Continue reading →

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Real numbers are not (ontologically) real, says Nicolas Gisin; living in a Sudoku Universe, with Emily Adlam; FQXi launches a new essay contest and large grant round, with Anthony Aguirre and Jan Wallaczek; & fine-tuning quantum theory, with Matt Leif

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 24, 2017 55:00

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Real numbers are not (ontologically) real, says Nicolas Gisin; living in a Sudoku Universe, with Emily Adlam; FQXi launches a new essay contest and large grant round, with Anthony Aguirre and Jan Wallaczek; & fine-tuning quantum theory, with Matt...

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2017 55:00

science universe large physics launches mathematics cosmology fine tuning sudoku quantum theory real numbers essay contest anthony aguirre

The Art Of Predicting With Anthony Aguirre And Andrew Critch

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2017 57:59

How well can we predict the future? In this podcast, Ariel speaks with Anthony Aguirre and Andrew Critch about the art of predicting the future, what constitutes a good prediction, and how we can better predict the advancement of artificial intelligence. They also touch on the difference between predicting a solar eclipse and predicting the weather, what it takes to make money on the stock market, and the bystander effect regarding existential risks. Visit metaculus.com to try your hand at the art of predicting. Anthony is a professor of physics at the University of California at Santa Cruz. He's one of the founders of the Future of Life Institute, of the Foundational Questions Institute, and most recently of Metaculus.com, which is an online effort to crowdsource predictions about the future of science and technology. Andrew is on a two-year leave of absence from MIRI to work with UC Berkeley's Center for Human Compatible AI. He cofounded the Center for Applied Rationality, and previously worked as an algorithmic stock trader at James Street Capital.

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FLI 2016 - A Year In Reivew

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 30, 2016 32:24

FLI's founders and core team -- Max Tegmark, Meia Chita-Tegmark, Anthony Aguirre, Victoria Krakovna, Richard Mallah, Lucas Perry, David Stanley, and Ariel Conn -- discuss the developments of 2016 they were most excited about, as well as why they're looking forward to 2017.

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Happy 10th Birthday to us! FQXi's director Anthony Aguirre celebrates a decade of the Foundational Questions Institute, and chats about the Kepler's planet haul and Breakthrough Starshot; Catalina Curceanu on testing a quantum rival under a moun

Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2016 39:00

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Happy 10th Birthday to us! FQXi's director Anthony Aguirre celebrates a decade of the Foundational Questions Institute, and chats about the Kepler's planet haul and Breakthrough Starshot; Catalina Curceanu on testing a quantum rival under a mountain;...

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2016 39:00

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Gravity Waves Explained by Physicist Anthony Aguirre

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 15, 2016 53:44

If the news coverage of recently discovered gravitational waves left you with lingering questions, you've come to the right place. Theoretical physicist Anthony Aguirre, our go-to guy on all things general relativistic, provides some great insight into the details and subtleties that popular accounts ignored or glossed over.

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Black Hole Mischief: Is Relativity in Trouble?

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 29, 2015 62:30

It wasn't long after Einstein amazed the world with his theory of general relativity in 1915 that physicists were busily working out its more outlandish implications. And none freakier than the spacetime disruptions we now call black holes. Black holes have been making trouble for theorists ever since: putting ideas to the test, exposing gaps and contradictions, and forcing physics to search for new unifying principles beneath the rifts. The latest bit of black hole mischief is a set of paradoxes whose solution, some say, threatens one or more pillars of modern physics and may require a rethinking of general relativity itself.Cosmologist and relativist Anthony Aguirre, who so ably introduced us to GR in our two-part primer, returns to discuss the black hole information paradox and firewall hypothesis, which are fueling one of the hottest controversies in theoretical physics today. Anthony also provides an update on the BICEP2 experiment and the reported – now retracted – discovery of primordial gravity waves that created such a stir last year.

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General Relativity for Beginners with Anthony Aguirre. Pt. 2 of 2 (Re-run)

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 15, 2015 51:47

Cosmologist Anthony Aguirre and I continue our jaunt through General Relativity. Last week we presented some of the basics. This week, we talk about the evidence, the impacts and implications, including the cosmological constant, the expanding universe, gravity waves, time dilation, black holes, and spacetime singularities.

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General Relativity for Beginners with Anthony Aguirre. Pt. 1 of 2 (Re-run)

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 8, 2015 60:11

It was Einstein's greatest idea, and one of the most audacious leaps of scientific imagination ever. Much of what physicists know or think they know about space, time and the cosmos depends on it. But General Relativity is usually brushed over in pop sci accounts, because GR is considered too GD difficult for ordinary brains. Even on this scientifically-minded program, we've given it pretty cursory treatment. But not this time. I'm devoting two whole shows to the subject with physicist Anthony Aguirre. He's taught relativity and applies it in his own cosmological research, and does a yeomanly job here of making some very alien concepts approachable. We originally broadcast this series in 2012 but seeing as 2015 is the centenary of Einstein's great discover, we're airing these shows again.

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Echoes of the Big Bang: Cosmologist Anthony Aguirre

Silicon Valley Astronomy Lecture Series - Video

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 23, 2014 61:05

Big physics is on a roll. It seems like only yesterday we were applauding the discovery of the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. And then this week came word that the BICEP2 microwave telescope at the South Pole had found evidence of gravitational waves from the inflationary epoch – a glimpse of the universe at the time of the Big Bang, or maybe even before. "Holy crap!" was my reaction, but I needed something more for a radio show, so I got in touch with Anthony Aguirre. Cosmic inflation is one of his specialties, and I thought he'd be a great person to explain the new findings. He was. And I stand by my initial assessment: holy crap!

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Multiple Universes and Cosmic Inflation:

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2013 91:51

May 18, 2011 Dr. Anthony Aguirre (University of California at Santa Cruz) Our improving understanding of the cosmos points to an early epoch during which the universe expanded at a stupendous rate to create the vast amount of space we can observe. Cosmologists are now coming to believe that this “cosmic inflation” may do much more: in many versions, inflation goes on forever, generating not just our observable universe but also infinitely many such regions with similar or different properties, together forming a staggeringly complex and vast “multiverse”. Dr. Aguirre traces the genesis of this idea, explores some of its implications, and discusses how scientists are seeking ways to test this idea.

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The Universe Gets Weirder: Cosmologist Anthony Aguirre

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2012 65:27

Originally broadcast in Feb 2011, my conversation with theoretical physicist Anthony Aguirre on the new, more complex picture of the universe that cosmologists have been sketching out in recent years. Anthony gave some of the clearest explanations I've heard of eternal inflation, the multiverse and why the Big Bang might not have been the beginning of everything.

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General Relativity for Beginners with Anthony Aguirre. Pt. 2 of 2.

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 15, 2012 53:53

Cosmologist Anthony Aguirre and I continue our jaunt through General Relativity. Last week we presented some of the basics. This week, we talk about the evidence, the impacts and implications, including the cosmological constant, the expanding universe, gravity waves, time dilation, black holes, and spacetime singularities.

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General Relativity for Beginners with Anthony Aguirre. Pt. 1 of 2.

UC Davis Particle Physics Seminars

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2012 60:54

It was Einstein's greatest idea, and one of the most audacious leaps of scientific imagination ever. Much of what physicists know or think they know about space, time and the cosmos depends on it. But General Relativity is usually brushed over in pop sci accounts, because GR is considered too GD difficult for ordinary brains. Even on this scientifically-minded program, we've given it pretty cursory treatment. But not this time. I'm devoting two whole shows to the subject with physicist Anthony Aguirre. He's taught relativity and applies it in his own cosmological research, and does a yeomanly job here of making some very alien concepts approachable.

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A Status Report on the Observability of Cosmic Bubble Collisions

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2011 55:44

Anthony Aguirre gives a talk at the Bubbles in the Sky workshop.

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The New Cosmology: Physicist Anthony Aguirre