Podcasts about superforecaster

Amy Maciver speaks to Paul Theron, a Superforecaster with Good Judgment, the team behind the widely respected World Ahead 2025 report, published by The Economist.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Liron Shapira, host of [Doom Debates], invited us on to discuss Popperian versus Bayesian epistemology and whether we're worried about AI doom. As one might expect knowing us, we only got about halfway through the first subject, so get yourselves ready (presumably with many drinks) for part II in a few weeks! The era of Ben and Vaden's rowdy youtube debates has begun. Vaden is jubilant, Ben is uncomfortable, and the world has never been more annoyed by Popperians. Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@DoomDebates) and podcast (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/doom-debates/id1751366208). We discuss Whether we're concerned about AI doom Bayesian reasoning versus Popperian reasoning Whether it makes sense to put numbers on all your beliefs Solomonoff induction Objective vs subjective Bayesianism Prediction markets and superforecasting References Vaden's blog post on Cox's Theorem and Yudkowsky's claims of "Laws of Rationality": https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2021/thecredenceassumption/ Disproof of probabilistic induction (including Solomonov Induction): https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.00749 EA Post Vaden Mentioned regarding predictions being uncalibrated more than 1yr out: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hqkyaHLQhzuREcXSX/data-on-forecasting-accuracy-across-different-time-horizons#Calibrations Article by Gavin Leech and Misha Yagudin on the reliability of forecasters: https://ifp.org/can-policymakers-trust-forecasters/ Superforecaster p(doom) is ~1%: https://80000hours.org/2024/09/why-experts-and-forecasters-disagree-about-ai-risk/#:~:text=Domain%20experts%20in%20AI%20estimated,by%202100%20(around%2090%25). The existential risk persuasion tournament https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-extinction-tournament Some more info in Ben's article on superforecasting: https://benchugg.com/writing/superforecasting/ Slides on Content vs Probability: https://vmasrani.github.io/assets/pdf/popper_good.pdf Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani, @liron Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Trust in the reverend Bayes and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) What's your credence that the second debate is as fun as the first? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com Special Guest: Liron Shapira.

Wie entwickelt sich die deutsche Industrie? Wer wird der nächste US-Präsident? Prognosen zur Wirtschaft und zur Weltpolitik sind schwer aufzustellen. Superforecaster können das überdurchschnittlich gut. Wie stellen sie das an? Martin Gramlich im Gespräch mit dem Superforecaster Bruno Jahn

The post Philipp Schoenegger on AI-augmented predictions, improving human decisions, LLM wisdom of crowds, and how to be a superforecaster (AC Ep36) appeared first on amplifyingcognition.

Superforecaster sind in der Lage, bessere Prognosen als Fachexperten auf ihrem jeweiligen Gebiet und als Geheimdienstler, die Zugriff auf vertrauliche Informationen haben, zu treffen. Die Professoren Philip Tetlock und Dan Gardner haben diese Superforecaster identifiziert und sie auf ihre Erfolgsgeheimnisse getestet. Was haben Barack Obama, Osama bin Laden, deine Wetter-App und die deutsche Wehrmacht damit zu tun? Tatsächlich einiges. Ich teile meine Erkenntnisse aus dem Buch "Superforecasting" mit dir, warum Prognosen trotz berechtigter Skepsis enorm wichtig sind für die Wirtschaft, Aktien und das persönliche Leben und was die Erfolgsfaktoren sind. Viel Spaß! Lerne schrittweise, wie du dein Geld eigenständig erfolgreich anlegst: https://aktienrebell.de/academy/ Hier habe ich mein Depot: https://aktienrebell.de/welches-depot/ Kontakt aufnehmen? Gern per LinkedIn, Instagram, Kontaktformular oder Mail an jannes ät aktienrebell.de. B2B-Kontaktformular: https://aktienrebell.de/b2b/ Instagram: https://instagram.com/aktienrebell/ YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/Aktienrebell Hochwertige Aktienanalysen & Research: https://strategyinvest.de/ Wenn dir der Podcast bei deiner Geldanlage, dem Investieren, der Börse, Aktien und Co. weiterhilft, würde ich mich sehr freuen, wenn du mir eine positive Bewertung da lässt oder meine Links zur Depoteröffnung nutzt. Danke für deine Unterstützung! Disclaimer: Keine Anlageberatung, nur meine persönliche Meinung. Prüfe jedes Investment vor dem Kauf selbst auf Risiken.

Plus more CFTC, X, and UFOs https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-73123-room-temperature

For the past few weeks, military analysts have been expecting a Ukrainian offensive in the conflict with Russia, one that might the tables on the Russians, break past the front lines and bring the war home to the aggressors. That offensive might still happen, but a more immediate problem emerged Tuesday—a collapsed dam releasing a torrent of water, endangering civilians, military, home and infrastructure, and perhaps even threatening a nuclear plant.As Russia's invasion of Ukraine has faltered, it's become clear just how far Putin's regime will go to continue it. As Ukraine prepares to take the fight to them, the war might just be coming to a turning point. But right now, chaos reigns, so what just happened and what comes next?GUEST: Balkan Devlen, Superforecaster at Good Judgement Inc. senior fellow and director of the transatlantic program and the McDonald Laurier Institute.

In this episode, we speak with forecasting researcher & data scientist at Amazon AWS, Ryan Kupyn, about his timelines for the arrival of AGI.Ryan was recently ranked the #1 forecaster in Astral Codex Ten's 2022 Prediction contest, beating out 500+ other forecasters and proving himself to be a world-class forecaster. He has also done work in ML & works as a forecaster for Amazon AWS.Hosted by Soroush Pour. Follow me for more AGI content:Twitter: https://twitter.com/soroushjpLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/soroushjp/== Show links ==-- About Ryan Kupyn --* Bio: Ryan is a forecasting researcher at Amazon. His main hobby outside of work is designing walking tours for different Los Angeles neighborhoods.* Ryan's meet-me email address: coffee AT ryankupyn DOT com  * Ryan: "I love to meet new people and talk about careers, ML, their best breakfast recipes and anything else."-- Further resources --* Superintelligence (Bostrom)* Superforecasting (Tetlock, Gardner)* Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani, Friedman)  * Ryan: "For general background on forecasting/statistics. This book is my go-to reference for understanding the math behind a lot of foundational statistical techniques."* Animal Spirits (Akerlof, Shiller)  * Ryan: "For understanding how forecasts can be driven by emotion. I find this a useful book for understanding how forecasts can be wrong, and a useful reminder to be mindful of my own forecasts."* Normal Accidents (Perrow)  * Ryan: "For understanding how humans interact with systems in ways that negate attempts by their creators to make them safer. I think there's some utility in looking at previous accidents in complex systems to AGI, as presented in this book".

Balkan Devlen - Senior Fellow at Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Adjunct Research Professor at Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, and Superforecaster for Good Judgment, Inc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What are the characteristics of superforecasters? How can a superforecasting team be developed? Hear from Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment, a leading global forecasting business based in NYC. Accurate forecasts from Good Judgment superforecasters have included the scale of the pandemic. In early 2020, Good Judgment superforecasters estimated the United States would have over 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 with 99 percent certainty, an estimate that was considered by many as excessive at the time. Warren gives show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes some valuable tips on how to become a superforecaster. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What's covered in EP176The Good Judgment forecasting business [2:41]What are the characteristics of superforecasters? [6:47]How to identify someone who is good at pattern recognition? Raven's matrices [9:24]Link between subject matter expertise and forecasting ability [10:40]What are some of the techniques that are used to help super forecasters rid themselves of prejudice and bias? [12:57]How large does a super forecasting group need to be to be successful? [20:35]Tips for being a super forecaster [25:59]Using the percentages to retrospectively see how you've gone [27:56]Bayes' Theorem [31:41]The importance of being open to a range of different views [42:47]About this episode's guest: Warren Hatch, CEO of Good JudgmentWarren Hatch is Good Judgment's second CEO, succeeding co-founder Terry Murray. Before joining Good Judgment, Hatch was a partner at McAlinden Research, where he identified thematic investment opportunities in global markets for institutional investor clients. Previously, he co-managed a hedge fund seeded by Tiger Management and was a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley.Hatch holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford, a masters in Russian and international policy studies from Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and a bachelors in history from the University of Utah. He is also a CFA® charterholder.Links relevant to the conversationGood Judgment's website and Twitter:https://goodjudgment.com/ and https://twitter.com/superforecaster?lang=enBBC Reel featuring Warren Hatch:https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p0dwntct/can-you-learn-to-predict-the-future-Warren's talk on YouTube which Gene quotes from in the episode:What is Superforecasting? - Warren Hatch, Good JudgementArticle by Nicholas Gruen:Making better economic forecastsLinks regarding foxes versus hedgehogs:https://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/https://goodjudgment.com/the-cost-of-overconfidence/CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show's sponsor, Gene's consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Frank Morano interviews Michael Story, GJP Superforecaster, Director at the Swift Centre about overcoming a fear of flying. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What mattered most? What changed us? What didn't we pay enough attention to? And what will we remember about 2022 in 2025 or 2030?As the year wraps up we called some of our favourite guests from a variety of fields to ask them what stood out, and what really mattered. And we made you a blooper reel. Have a safe and happy new year from all of us at TBS, and we'll return with brand new episodes on January 3, 2023.GUESTS:Cormac Mac Sweeney, Parliament Hill reporter, CityNewsVass Bednar, author of Regs 2 RichesBalkan Devlen, Superforecaster at Good Judgement Inc.Donnovan Bennett, Sportsnet Writer, host of Going DeepFatima Syed, guest host of TBS, Ontario reporter at The NarwhalSabina Vohra-Miller, clinical pharmacologist

In less than a week, Ukrainian forces have regained more than 3000 square kilometres of territory occupied by Russia, and they plan to keep pushing. Videos show Russian tanks and ammunition left behind as soldiers flee. It's been an incredible offensive—but is it enough to turn the tide of this conflict? And what happens if Russia is humiliated in front of the world? What might Vladimir Putin do then?GUEST: Balkan Devlin, Senior Fellow at the MacDonald-Laurier Institute, Superforecaster for Good Judgment, Inc.

Jon and Producer Lee bring on league-mate Mike Pish to talk about surprising performances, play buy or sell, do some trivia, and give their top 10 current starting pitchers.Timestamps:(0:00 - 5:26) Intro(5:27 - 12:55) Superforecaster Update(12:56 - 16:45) Daily Notes Update + Pish Injury(16:46 - 28:07) Buy or Sell(28:08 - 36:06) Top 10 Starters(36:07 - 45:30) Trivia Game(45:31 - 48:13) Pathetic Mailbag(48:14 - 52:48) Pish's Team Thoughts + Outro

Almost 100 days after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Russian forces now control one-fifth of Ukraine. That is both a scary number and also a far better outcome thus far than most of the world predicted.This was a war that was supposed to be brutal and short, and it may drag on for months to come as Ukrainians fight courageously against their aggressors—but in the end, somehow, this war will end. What are the possible scenarios for how, and which is likely to play out in the coming months?GUEST: Balkan Devlen, senior fellow at McDonald Laurier Institute, Superforecaster for Good Judgment, Inc.

(Highlights below)Pavel is a decision scientist and co-founder at Pytho, using decision science to measure and improve human judgment & prediction. He has a phd in psychology and decision science from the University of Pennsylvania, focusing on crowd predictions. Pavel's twitter: https://twitter.com/PavelDAtanasov. Follow Daliana (https://twitter.com/DalianaLiu) for more updates on data science and this podcast. Highlights: (00:01:10) how he got into decision science (00:14:38) what makes someone a super forecaster (00:16:20) three elements of becoming a super forecaster (00:24:37) how to effectively update our opinions 00:30:05 how he designed experiments to find out what was a better system (00:48:27) why humans sometimes are better than algorithm (01:14:50) how to collect data and information better (01:33:25) why you should quit (01:42:30) the future of decision science Superforecasting book, based on the Good Judgment Project: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718 Blogs about forecasting: Vox's Future Perfect series: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/

Can people predict the future? According to Superforecaster, Jonathon Kitson, some can get pretty close!  In this episode of the Swift Half with Snowdon, Christopher Snowdon, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics sits down with Jonathon Kitson, Superforecaster and Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute, to discuss military spending, his experience of clinical vulnerability during the pandemic and much more! This episode was originally featured as a video on the IEA's YouTube Channel. Watch here.   FOLLOW US: TWITTER - https://twitter.com/iealondon​​  INSTAGRAM - https://www.instagram.com/ieauk/​​  FACEBOOK - https://www.facebook.com/ieauk​​  WEBSITE - https://iea.org.uk/ 

It sounds like hyperbole—unless you listen to the Russian president's thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons on any country that intervenes with his aggression in Ukraine. That doesn't mean this conflict will escalate to a multi-nation war, but the possibility is certainly there, according to experts. And nobody knows what happens next.What does this mean for the future of the international order and traditional alliances? What does it mean for millions of innocent Ukrainians? For countries like Canada who are on the sidelines? How will this conflict reshape the world in the weeks and months to come?GUEST: Balkan Devlen, senior fellow at McDonald Laurier Institute, Superforecaster for Good Judgment, Inc.

In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022. 0:24 Pantone failure4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions)6:00 Will the pandemic fade?12:20 Huntington's Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of the shift?16:45 The conflict in Ukraine27:15 Turkey – Erdogan and the economy33:30 US domestic politics (More Covid),38:20 Supreme Court cases (Roe v. Wade), 45:00 Mid-term elections52:50 What will be the biggest stories of 2022?59:05 Urea!You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Inspirational stories plus practical takeaways from the entrepreneurship world.Today's guest is Regina Joseph. She was a pioneer of digital publication with the first-ever digital magazine, Blender, at a time when no one believed anyone would ever read online. She also created prototypes for the early forms of digital ads.  She then went on to start one of the first-ever digital marketing agencies Engine.RDA. Her entire career she's been one step ahead of everyone else and forecasted where the market will go to abnormal accuracy. IARPA has declared her one of the world's only Superforecasters after an intense selection process. She continues to innovate today and also coaches others on how to make better strategic forecasts through her companies Pytho and Sibylink.  We hope enjoy the episode and don't forget to share it with others. You can learn more at http//www.entrepreneurshandbook.co.Find out more about Regina at http://www.superrj.com

In today's episode Greg and Colin talk with Dr Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgement Inc.  Dr Hatch discusses superforecasting, what it is and how it is applied in today's world of investing.  Enjoy the show!

Welcome back to the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week we are joined by David McCullough, Managing Director of Government Operations and Superforecaster and Good Judgement Inc. Prior to joining Good Judgement, David was an underwater Archaeologist for over twenty years after receiving his Ph.D. in Maritime Archeology from the University of Glasgow. In this week's episode, we talked to David about his background in Archaeology and the ways in which his training helped him become an elite forecaster. Afterwards, we discussed the importance of creating good forecasting questions and the qualities associated with them. We also chatted with David the importance of pre-mortem analysis and the roadblocks hindering government and private-sector adoption of forecasting and the principles outlined in Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting. We really enjoyed speaking with David, finding his answers thoughtful and insightful. If you did as well, make sure to check out Good Judgement's upcoming Superforecasting Workshop on December 8th and 9th at 12:00 - 2:30pm EST.

And we're back! Welcome everyone to the eighteenth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, the podcast on all things geopolitics and forecasting. Today we are joined by GG alum David Manheim, lead researcher for the human challenge trial advocacy group 1DaySooner who previously appeared on The Right Side of Maybe to discuss his accuracy in forecasting Covid vaccines. David received a PhD in Public Policy from Pardee Rand Graduate School focusing on risk analysis and decision theory. He has done work on a variety of grants and contracts to research existential risk mitigation, public health, computational modelling, and infectious disease epidemiology for organizations such as the RAND Corporation. In addition to his work with 1DaySooner, David currently works with the Foresight Institute, is a Superforecaster with Good Judgement Inc., and recently became a visiting professor at the Israel Institute of Technology "working to build interdisciplinary collaborations with technical researchers on the promises and risks of emerging technologies." In this episode, you'll hear David talk about his work in biosecurity including the recent report he worked on for the Council on Strategic Risks, a US think tank, and his work with 1DaySooner on human challenge trials to learn how this change in vaccine testing could save millions of lives. We also chatted with David about the role that quantified forecasting currently plays in government policy and discuss why the technique is under-utilized. Finally, we get David's thoughts on real-money prediction markets and the importance of question-quality in both prediction markets and platforms. Note: This episode was recorded on July 29th.

When there are many options in front of us, how can we pick the best one? Warren Hatch has the answer. He's the CEO of Good Judgment, a forecasting company that fosters a team of "superforecasters" — people who are exceptionally good at looking at situations and predicting what'll happen next. What are they doing? And how can we do it too?

When there are many options in front of us, how can we pick the best one? Warren Hatch has the answer. He's the CEO of Good Judgment, a forecasting company that fosters a team of "superforecasters" — people who are exceptionally good at looking at situations and predicting what'll happen next. What are they doing? And how can we do it too?

What do you get when you combine a veteran superforecaster with an experienced hacker and innovator? You get our guest for episode 4 of The Right Side of Maybe! This week we spoke with Carolyn Meinel—CTO of ISIT Austin, hacker and author, and top-ranked superforecaster—about her experience in the hacking world, forecasting best practices and frameworks, as well as Carolyn's prediction about the Code Red worm which turned out on the right side of maybe. If you have interest in the intersection of forecasting and cyberwarfare, or want to be graced with interesting anecdotes about the science world from the 1970s to 2000s, this is the episode for you. Find Carolyn Meinel: https://twitter.com/cmeinel Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing 

How does a world-renowned superforecaster compare to public health experts when forecasting the future of the pandemic? We spoke with one to find out. Tom Liptay is a PhD, CPA, investor, and superforecaster with Good Judgement Project. Amongst the top forecasters, he is among the top-ranked. Tom co-founded Maby, a platform that provides companies and organizations with the requisite tools to make quality forecasts for their business, or other exogenous issues to their operations. In episode 3 of The Right Side of Maybe, we talked to Tom about a series of Covid-19-related predictions he made on Maby and how they compared with public health experts'. Tom shared a lot of useful insights for new and expert forecasters alike looking to make better, more valuable predictions. Find Tom's predictions here: https://www.maby.app/covid/ Website: https://globalguessing.com/​​

In early 2020, when discussion around a Covid-19 vaccine first started, our guest made a forecast regarding vaccine roll-outs that ended up being spot on. Dr. David Manheim—a Superforecaster at Good Judgement, top-ranked forecaster on Metaculus, researcher, and public policy whiz—got this question right, beating a crowd of superforecasters and showcasing his strong forecasting ability. In this second episode of The Right Side of Maybe, we spoke to Dr. Manheim about his introduction to forecasting, his views on how to improve forecasts with some basic techniques, and the concept of Minimal Valuable Forecasts before digging deeper into his impressive Covid-19 prediction. We also spoke to Dr. Manheim about how forecasting plays a role in his personal life, and heard about his own process when it comes to approaching new forecasting domains. David Manheim: https://twitter.com/davidmanheim Global Guessing: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing​

For the first episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we are joined by Dr. Balkan Devlen, author, professor, and superforecaster for Good Judgement, Inc. In the episode, we discussed Dr. Devlen's introduction to quantified forecasting and his path to becoming a Superforecaster, before discussing how theories of social sciences can be incorporated into predictions, why forecasting has little presence in academia, and reflecting on past predictions–among other topics.

In this episode of The Pin Factory, the ASI's Matthew Lesh is joined by Daniel Pryor, Head of Programmes at the Adam Smith Institute and Jonathon Kitson, ASI Fellow and Superforecaster. They discuss the EU's vaccine rollout woes, questions around short-selling in the wake of the GameStop saga, and the value of superforecasting. Guests: Matthew Lesh (Head of Research, Adam Smith Institute)  Daniel Pryor (Head of Programmes, Adam Smith Institute)  Jonathon Kitson (ASI Fellow and Superforecaster)  (Recorded on 2nd February 2021)

The world watched as an angry mob stormed the US Capitol Wednesday. It was a scene few imagined we'd ever see—but it was also, somehow, inevitable. In the weeks since the election Donald Trump had been broadcasting his desire for his followers to take action. Then they did. The mob was cleared. Joe Biden's win was certified and it appears there will be a peaceful transfer of power. But what does an early-January insurrection attempt portend for US and global politics in 2021? And how safe are we in Canada from the sort of angry political uprising we just watched our neighbour grapple with? GUEST: Balkan Devlen, senior fellow at McDonald Laurier Institute, Superforecaster for Good Judgment, Inc.

Our neighbour is in trouble. Whatever the results of the American election on November 3, there's only a small chance they won't be contested. The upheaval could last for months. It could get violent. It could fracture America. All of this obviously impacts Canada, so what are we doing to prepare? What should we be doing? How can our government gameplan for whatever happens in the coming months, and what are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for Canada if chaos reigns to the south? GUEST: Balkan Devlen, senior fellow at McDonald Laurier Institute,  Superforecaster for Good Judgment, Inc.

One of the most influential political scientists of the modern era shares his work on 'superforecasting' - the art and science of prediction. Philip explains what makes some people able to better predict the future, how you can you change your thinking to improve your predictions, why we don't always answer the question we're being asked and what questions we should be asking. Fascinating from start to finish, this will change the way you try and solve problems. Follow Philip on Twitter here: @PTetlock Follow Matt on Twitter: @mattforde Try becoming a Superforecaster, enter the Good Judgement Open here: https://www.gjopen.com/ Buy 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Predicton' here: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Prediction-Philip-E-Tetlock/dp/0804136696/ For the latest UK Government advice on coronavirus go to: https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus *** IMPORTANT TOUR UPDATE *** NEW REARRANGED DATES INCLUDE: 2 October - Corby Cube 4 October - Brighton Komedia 9 October - Chorley Little Theatre 18 October - Leeds Hyde Park Book Club 25 October - Newcastle Stand 3 November - Camberley Theatre 13 November - Alnwick Playhouse 15 November - York Crescent 19 November - Cardiff Sherman Theatre 29 November - Glasgow Stand 3 December - Southend Dixon Studio 6 December - Sheffield Leadmill See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Recently it's become expected that if you want to be taken seriously as a forecaster that you should not only record your predictions in advance, but assign a confidence level. And that by following this methodology certain people, so called superforecasters, have been found who are significantly better at prediction than average. The problem with this approach is that while these individuals are great at predicting should things continue mostly as they have, they're actually worse at predicting extreme events, which are inevitably the most impactful. 

Episode 85 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Justin Crow, superforecaster and Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology for the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about social epidemiology and how it's relevant to understanding the Covid-19 pandemic (00:40); Liberty University's return to school (05:40); the CDC CASPER household survey and testing to help determine when we can safely relax stay at home and social distancing orders (12:30); the prospect of Covid-19 spreading to rural areas (21:00); how to control Covid-19 and still enjoy life (23:20); when should society re-open (36:40); and his recommendations (44:50). Justin's comments are his private opinions and should not be taken as official statements or policy of the Virginia Department of Health. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/5/2020)

Wir sprechen mit einem, der schon ganz genau weiß, wie alles kommt. Wie und wann Corona vorbeigeht, wie wir die Krise meistern. Es geht um einen sogenannten "Superforecaster". Roman Hagelstein heißt der Mann, dessen Prognosen und die seiner weltweiten Projektgruppe sogar besser sind als die der CIA.

Mehr Sicherheit für Radfahrer; Schwefel-Akku gut 1000 Kilometer Reichweite?; Stahlherstellung ohne Kohle; Daniels Hausbesuch beim Superforecaster; Brustzentren behandeln erfolgreicher; Recycling von Windrädern; Psychiatriepatienten zu Hause behandeln; Safer Internet Day - Was wurde im Netz sicherer, was unsicherer?; Serie "Natur des Jahres 2020": die Turteltaube; Moderation: Marija Bakker.

Episode 41 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert and Scott interview Welton Chang, a fellow Superforecaster, former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst, stationed in South Korea and with two deployments to Iraq. He is currently a Ph.D. candidate in the Good Judgment laboratory at the University of Pennsylvania, with Phil Tetlock and Barbara Mellers as advisors. Military intelligence – Korea, Iraq (4:00). Confronting being wrong – the nature of judgment and cognition (7:15). Vizzini's Princess Bride conundrum (12:15) ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s0UURBihH8). AI – algorithms and models – should we trust them, and the garbage in garbage out problem (12:50). Spaghetti chart of Afghanistan: perhaps an accurate representation (18:45)? Limits of modern warfare – restrictions (22:30).  Rationality – Trump, Kim, Rex, nukes (33:00)? What is a good way to train forecasters? Welton’s work helping develop training material for the Good Judgment Project (50:40). Improving group dynamics for better decisions (57:00). Bayes' theorem and practice (1:20:00). We close with Welton's cats @percyandportia, Instagram celebrities (1:21:20). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/20/2017)  

Dan Gardner, co-author of best-selling "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," argues that pundits are notoriously inaccurate at predicting the future, and that ordinary people actually produce better forecasts. In this episode of AFP Conversations, Gardner explains how FP&A and finance professionals can turn themselves into superforecasters. He will also keynote the inaugural FinNext.  

Research shows that there are certain kinds of people who can forecast correctly most of the time. What traits do they share? See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Can experts predict the future? I speak to a "Superforecaster" about how new research is showing how ordinary people can make accurate forecasts about world events.