Podcast appearances and mentions of Paul Donovan

Paul Donovan, COO of Forte Real Estate Services talks to F&C reporter Brian Johnson. Donovan talks about his job duties with Forte, his experience in site selection and transaction management, and the outlook for the office-industrial market.

What does it mean to create a safe space to fail? During this episode, we are going outside of the built environment to speak to a different kind of inspiring leader in his field. Paul Donovan is the CEO and Head Coach of Jersey Wahoos, a USA swimming club program located in Mount Laurel, New Jersey. He is a champion of self-compassion and kindness. In this conversation, Paul shares how to balance compassion with accountability, navigate parental pressure, and prevent burnout in youth sports. He reflects on quiet leadership, the real mission behind his coaching that goes far beyond the swimming pool, and why leading by example and giving generously of one's time is essential as a youth sports coach. There are so many principles for life that can be learned through sports, and today's episode is a deep dive into how, with the right coach and leadership, participating in them can really be a last bastion of discipline in challenging environments. Thanks for listening. Key Points From This Episode: •   What it looks like to balance compassion and accountability while leading young people.•   Causes of burnout in youth sports.•   Building awareness of the organization while remaining focused on celebrating internal successes.•   Leading by example in coaching and youth sports.•   How youth sports can be the final bastion of discipline in challenging environments.  Quotes: “I think burnout is an emotional state of mind, not a physical state of mind.” — Paul Donovan  “I believe in quiet leadership. You know the old saying parents had about kids is that they should be seen but not heard? I think leaders should be heard but not seen.” — Paul Donovan  “Our actual goal for the kids isn't for them to win a medal at the world championships. Our actual goal with them all is to open up doors that are otherwise unattainable.” — Paul Donovan  Links Mentioned in Today's Episode:Paul Donovan on LinkedInPaul Donovan on InstagramJersey Wahoos Swim ClubThe Power of HabitThe Five Dysfunctions of a TeamSteve MagnessThe Sport Parent on XLeadership Blueprints PodcastLeadership Blueprints Podcast on YouTubeMCFAMCFA CareersBJ Kraemer on LinkedIn

China's trade surplus exceeded one trillion US dollars in the 11 months to November. Round numbers do not matter in economics, but trends do. This surplus will help China meet its official growth target, compensating for somewhat lackluster domestic demand.

Today we get information on the US consumer—but unfortunately it is a mix of old data and misdirection. September personal income and spending numbers (and the consumer expenditure deflator) should show the US consumer spending even as inflation pressures have built. Since April, consumer durable goods prices have added to inflation (having previously reduced it), for instance. However consumers have cut their savings rate to cover the price increases, keeping consumption stable.

The US labor market is, rightly, a key focus. Low fear of unemployment gave US consumers the confidence to reduce savings rates. That reduction in savings rates has paid for the US consumer price increases since April, sustaining spending. The November ADP payrolls data showed labor market weakness. The ADP numbers do not necessarily have a strong relationship with reality, but the weakness increases the focus on today's weekly initial jobless claims data.

US September import price inflation is old news, but will still be poured over by economists. Exporters do not pay tariffs in any economy—the legal liability for the tariff is that of the importer. However, exporters may discount their prices to offset tariffs, which would show up as lower pre-tariff import price. If that discounting is not taking place, the burden of the tariff passes further down the supply chain.

Japan's 10-year government bond auction had solid demand. Normally, this would not merit attention, but international investors have been getting anxious about Japan's debt. Domestic investors have not. Japan is wealthy, most bonds are owned domestically, and the government has a lot of practice in funding its borrowing requirements.

US President Trump indicated that a nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve has been selected (though without giving a name). Senate confirmation is assumed by the markets, as none of the supposed candidates are so radical as to merit independent Senate action. Fed members have been showing increased independence in policy votes, however, which may blunt the impact of the Fed Chair on policy direction.

Today, US consumers give thanks by spending money—cutting savings rates to buy things they don't need. Retailers will discount prices, but those discounts may be tempered as retailers also strive to pass on cost increases, or to increase profit margins under the tariff narrative and pretend it is all about cost increases.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book of anecdotal evidence changed little—a stable outlook with some concerns. In the details, manufacturers and retailers expressed concerns about tariff-induced cost increases. Lags in supply chains mean that for retailers it is probably a reference to the April tariffs. The absence of hiring continues in the labor market. The willingness of high income consumers to spend was noted.

US September retail sales data were old news, but slightly softer. While it is tempting to blame the accelerating US inflation rate, retail sales are nominal numbers and include inflation effects. Pessimism should be limited, however. The numbers will almost certainly be revised. Ongoing shifts in consumption patterns have consequences (Instagrammers showcasing their latest holiday contribute less to retail sales than buyers of new washing machines). Credit card data suggests no reason to panic.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocated a December rate cut, citing labor markets. If Waller is seriously concerned about employment, this would be a worrying signal for the US economy, where growth depends on low unemployment fears. If this is an attempt to be picked as US President Trump's new Fed chair, markets are likely to focus on the potential accommodation and ignore suggestions of economic risk.

The lower house of the French national assembly rejected the latest revenue parts of the French budget. An unaltered budget proposal now goes to the Senate. Anyone who pays attention to French fiscal matters will not be surprised—the constitution of the current (fifth) Republic, and the lack of a government majority allows for quite a lot of complex procedure before something is agreed. Something like a French government shutdown is inconceivable.

The September US employment report was finally released. This data's quality has deteriorated dramatically—not because of the shutdown, but because survey response rates have been weak for some time, and the seasonal adjustment process in September has been a distortion in recent years. Payrolls rose, but so did the unemployment rate.

The Federal Reserve minutes offered some excitement, and it is not often that an economist gets to write those words. “Many” members of the Fed were opposed to the idea of a December rate cut. The Fed will not have a great deal of new information before it meets next month (thanks to the government shutdown), leading markets to reduce expectations for another rate cut this year.

Market volatility does not necessarily reflect shifts in the economic outlook. While some companies have suggested moderating consumer demand in the US, this may be just reflecting shifts in consumption patterns around the timing of trade tariffs, and should not be extrapolated into broader macroeconomic trends. The Federal Reserve minutes may offer more insight into the economy (at least as perceived by policy-makers).

The latest rhetoric from Federal Reserve members is not changing policy uncertainty. Fed Governor Waller highlighted US labor market brittleness—their rather dour outlook supporting a December rate cut. Simultaneously, the cost of living (or, more broadly, affordability) is in political focus, and Fed Vice-Chair Jefferson acknowledged that by suggesting the pace of policy easing could slow.

The Swiss-US trade deal marks another potential reduction in tariffs paid by US importers, following selective tariff cuts on imported foodstuffs. The Swiss tariffs were not in place long, and US importers may have anticipated this reduction; it is therefore questionable how much of the tariff was passed to US consumers. Other tariff reductions have not necessarily reduced consumer prices—less relevant in the Swiss case, but which matters to inflation perceptions in the case of food tariffs.

There are more reports of the US administration scrambling to cut tariffs using framework trade deals with Latin American economies. Heightened political concerns about US consumers' inflation perceptions seem to be leading a drive to reduce the tariffs US importers pay on food products. Bilateral negotiations with Latin American countries will be limited in their scope because of Mercosur trade pact rules.

US October consumer price inflation should have been published today. It is unlikely the number will ever be calculated, because there was no one to collect the price data. This highlights a problem —even if the US government is functioning, there are fewer employees collecting prices, which means more of the inflation number is ”interpolated” (or “guessed”).

US President Trump has suggested that most US households could receive a USD2,000 cheque from the government. Such a move would require legislation. The bond market seems sceptical about Congressional action and is not currently pricing the probable deficit consequences. Bonds are instead focusing on dubious quality labor market signals, as a guide to Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Media reports suggest US importers may face a lower tariff on products from Switzerland (the suggestion is that the August 39% tariff becomes 15%). Swiss imports are a rather modest contribution to the basket of goods that form US consumer price inflation. However, price reactions to a tariff cut might be an important signal. Other tariff cuts have not led to proportionate reductions in consumer prices. If this trend continues, it might create inflation stickiness if the US Supreme Court rules other tariffs to be illegal.

Yesterday, the Bank of England did what it does best and disagreed with itself over policy. The finely balanced vote opens the way for a rate cut in December, when policy-makers will have the benefit of actually knowing what the government's fiscal policy is to be.

The US Supreme Court hearing on the legality of the majority of the US administration's tariffs produced a positive reaction from tariff-related equities. The questioning from some justices, including the chief justice, seemingly increased investor expectations that the tariffs would be declared illegal. That should entail a rebate to US companies, which would offer a fiscal boost to the US economy.

The economic calendar includes several central bank announcements, as well as the release of the Bank of Japan's minutes. With limited investor focus on other central bank remarks, the Bank of Japan minutes may attract particular attention.

If the US had a functioning federal government, we would be getting September trade data today. In theory, one could calculate US trade numbers by using bilateral trade data from other economies. Unfortunately, the rest of the world has been seeking to minimize trade tariffs by careful rerouting of exports, which makes it very difficult to identify what the US is buying using the data of those that are selling.

The October US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll is due. Falling survey repose rates and rising political polarisation have conspired to reduce the reliability of survey-based evidence. The risk is that in the absence of proper US economic data, investors turn in desperation to surveys and give them more credibility than they deserve.

We should be getting US personal income and spending data today, but because the US lacks a properly functioning government we are getting no such thing. This matters because the resilient middle-income consumer has kept the US from recession this year. Credit card data hints that this is still the case, but if fear of unemployment were to rise, downside risks would quickly emerge. The longer the government is shutdown, the greater the role of rumor in the economy—and as bad news sells better, there is a risk that unwarranted fear gains ground in the absence of actual facts.

The Federal Reserve spoke with an almost British accent yesterday, cutting rates a quarter point with a Bank of England-like three-way vote split. Fed Chair Powell signaled that a December cut was not inevitable. While a majority clearly favored insuring against the risks of a brittle US labor market today, there are fears about future inflation pressures and the lack of credible US economic data.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates a quarter point. The absence of credible short-term data since the last Fed meeting means policymakers cannot follow Fed Chair Powell's “data dependency” mantra and must instead focus on economic trends. Market interest will be focused on the spectrum of views, the tone of the press conference, and (inevitably) speculation about Powell's successor.

The IMF suggested that the US government debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed that of Italy by the end of the decade. There is no reason to suppose this IMF forecast is more accurate than any other IMF forecast, but the trend is clear. Italian parallels are a reason not to panic. Italy is a very wealth country, and has successfully mobilized private wealth to help fund its debt. The US is a reasonably wealth country and could do likewise. The UK's Truss debacle reminds us that funding government debt (not the debt level itself) is what matters.

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to have moved into a “dial down” phase after the recent escalation. While details will probably not be given until the proposed meeting between US President Trump and China's President Xi later this week, the threatened 100% tariff on US consumers of China's exports appears to have been removed.

US President Trump announced trade negotiations with Canada would end. Trump is unhappy with the Province of Ontario's adverts, directly quoting US President Reagan arguing against tariffs on economic grounds. Previous negotiation breakdowns focused on policy issues, which were more readily resolved. However, only a limited part of US-Canada trade is affected by this, and precedent does suggest an eventual resolution.

There has been a small blip in the oil price following the US announcement that two Russian energy companies would be blacklisted. US President Trump intends to raise the issue of China's Russian oil purchases with China's President Xi next week (assuming that meeting goes ahead). In the context of the recent oil price decline, the overnight price move is economically negligible—politics is the only reason it gets any attention.

UK September consumer price inflation was lower than expected. Air fares and fuel prices added, but food prices seem to have been subject to more general discounting. Previously, food prices mainly experienced discounts for supermarket loyalty card holders, which is not captured in the official inflation data.

South Korea's early October export data showed strength when adjusted for differences in working days. As is now standard, semiconductor exports led this export surge. Auto exports were weakened by US tariffs, but trade with the rest of the world continues to be more or less as normal.

Financial markets have been pushed around by trade, again. This time the reaction has been positive, as the US seems to have moved away from its more antagonistic position towards China. While the back and forth over trade has certainly done some economic damage, equity markets have reacted more dramatically than the real economy.

There are reports that the US administration will extend the delay in implementing tariffs on car part imports from two years to five years. This is a reaction to intensive domestic lobbying, and should probably not be taken as a signal for the wider trade tensions between the US and China.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book of economic anecdotes was not affected by the absence of a functioning government. There was evidence of prices reacting to trade tariffs, and a sense of labor market fragility. However, it is possible that elements of political partisanship are being captured in some of the reported concerns.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated that labor market concerns dominate inflation concerns in current policy. The lack of a functioning US federal government means this economic analysis depends on dubious quality data—private sector polls and potentially distorted anecdotal evidence—but Powell has shown a willingness to depend on such data in making past policy decisions.

Markets have detected some shifting around in the US approach to trade with China. US Treasury Secretary Bessent was vocal in asserting that US President Trump and China's President Xi will meet. Markets have extrapolated from past meetings to conclude that this will reduce the temperature of the trade rhetoric.

After US President Trump's threat to impose additional significant tariffs on US buyers of goods from China, there has been a more conciliatory tone from both Trump and US Vice President Vance over the weekend. China's September trade data showed stronger-than-expected exports (and imports). China's data earlier this year was hinting at rerouting exports to help US importers avoid high tariffs.

The US government has announced that, regardless of the government shutdown, the September consumer price inflation data will be coming out (probably late). This is legally required, to enable the cost of living calculation that raises social security payments—huge swathes of US government spending are tied to inflation measures. The Federal Reserve should have this data when it meets.

French politicians have been doing politics. This week's prime minister, Lecornu, has suggested that a majority of national assembly members favor seeking a compromise budget. The suggestion is less fiscal tightening than was originally proposed. French assets are likely to continue to command a risk premium, but the bond market should remain orderly.

Economists traditionally do not worry too much about the growth impact of US government shutdowns, as the short-term loss of economic output tends to be paid back with an economic bounce when government reopens. It is still a net negative—contractors are not compensated for lost activity in a shutdown—but government workers get their back pay paid back. US President Trump has suggested that may not happen this time. If that were legally enforced, it would reduce the bounce of the bounce back.

French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned, but will work for 48 hours—President Macron wants Lecornu to find a fiscal solution that would command National Assembly support. Despite obvious parallels, this is not the same as the UK's Truss debacle. The French bond market remains orderly. French assets will command a risk premium, as investors wait to see whether a new government or new elections are the outcome.

The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan elected former economic security minister Takaichi as its leader, and thus Prime Minister-presumptive. Takaichi is seen as a pro-growth leader, and has signaled scepticism about the persistence of Japan's inflation. This has supported equities, and may delay expectations of a Bank of Japan rate increase.

Today is US employment report Friday—except it is not, because of the impenetrable fog of US government shutdown. As low fear of unemployment is a crucial line of defense keeping the US from recession, this is frustrating.

The US government shutdown continues—Senate Republicans failed to pass their measure to end it. US President Trump indicated some federal government workers may be fired, not furloughed. That would doubtless face legal challenges, but might also increase fear of unemployment. Low fear of unemployment has helped keep US growth mediocre rather than recessionary. However, the federal government workforce is a very small share of US employment, which should limit economic damage.

The US Congress failed to either change the rules or come to an agreement to avert a government shutdown. Economists now lack official economic data from the US. Private sector data is a poor substitute. Private data is like viewing the economy through a keyhole —clear, but with a narrow field of vision. Official data is like opening the door. Private data relies on official data to model the bits of the economy outside its field of vision, and that modelling becomes less accurate in the absence of official data.