UBS On-Air

The US May employment report is due, with the regular reminders that this data has become increasingly unreliable in recent years, and average earnings are not wages. This month's data will correct errors that crept into last month's data. Signs of weakness in restaurant and leisure travel sectors mean fewer lower paid workers may be employed, raising average earnings without affecting wages. But, the Federal Reserve's “data dependency” means the labor market is seen as a trigger for policy action.

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the investment case for global markets to continue their climb higher and provides a performance update on some of CIO's investment themes. We also cover considerations for investors when it comes to climate change-related investment risks, along with reflect on the potential impacts of Japan's fiscal deficit to global markets.

A total of 52 out of 52 surveyed economists expect a quarter point ECB rate reduction today. How could so many economists possibly be wrong?

Rich rejoins the conversation with Jason to exchange thoughts around the evolution of US trade policy, the current market environment, the health of the US economy, and portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump's mega-donor Musk was strongly critical of the “big, beautiful bill” currently before Congress. The bill contains many things markets are worried about. Musk's opposition may embolden some Republican senators to oppose parts of the bill (Musk has more money than Trump, but their recent political forays have not been universally successful).

May was a good month for the markets, though there are many questions that investors are asking as we enter June, such as the fate of tariffs, the outcome of trade negotiations, the status of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and what impact the tariffs will have on the economy. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on those questions, along with shares guidance when it comes to positioning for the current environment. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Reports in Washington suggest US President Trump may talk directly with China's President Xi later this week (after several days of more heated rhetoric between the US and China over trade). As Trump has been anxious for the call, and China has not, this may hint at more US retreats over trade taxes as a concession to bring China to the telephone.

US President Trump doubled taxes on US consumers of imported steel on Friday, and (so far) has not retreated from that tax increase. Trump reacted angrily when confronted with the Financial Times acronym “TACO”, and the implication that markets expect Trump to reverse policy rapidly. Investors may worry that Trump persists with these taxes, not because of some economic objective but instead as an emotional reaction to market perceptions of their negotiating stance.

We close out the trading week by reviewing the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, recapping notable macro data releases (including a look at the FOMC meeting minutes) - plus, a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

There is yet more uncertainty in the US economy. US President Trump appealed the ruling that their trade taxes were illegal. While this is decided, the taxes stay. There are thus three layers of uncertainty. Will the taxes survive? If they are illegal, will US companies and consumers get refunds? And are trade taxes today actually being collected? There is also uncertainty around how US companies will react to this uncertainty, especially with pricing.

There has been no letup in the trade drama, with a US federal court striking down much of President Trump's recent tariff hikes. That followed a sudden pivot in trade talks with the European Union - with the threat of a 50% tariff to an acceleration of negotiations all within the space of a few days. So what have we learnt about Trump's strategy? What does this all mean for the EU and Switzerland? And where do we see the safest investment opportunities across the pond? Hear perspective from Dean Turner, CIO Eurozone and UK Economist. Co-hosts: Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

A timely review of overnight trade developments, plus a look at positioning recommendations within EM equities, and thoughts on the dollar. We also touch on how investors can position using EM and international equities in the context of portfolio diversification. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US trade court ruled that about half of US President Trump's trade tax increases are illegal. Markets reacted positively, but the US has not been reset to its factory settings.

Equity markets seemingly rallied on optimistic comments from US President Trump around trade. So much focus on the words of one individual is unusual. Trump has the power to limit future economic damage from new trade taxes, but cannot undo the damage of past policy swings. For example, comments in yesterday's sentiment data highlighted that companies are delaying decisions in the face of policy uncertainty, even as Trump retreated from some tariffs.

Until recently, gold's rally seemed unstoppable. In an environment where perceived safe havens were scarce, gold stood out. However, in recent weeks, investor sentiment has shifted as geopolitical tensions eased. Does this mean gold's rally has come to an end? Not necessarily, according to our commodities experts, Wayne Gordon, CIO APAC Head of Investment Advisory & Content, and Giovanni Staunovo, CIO Commodity Strategist. Co-hosts: Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

The US long weekend was marked by aggressive policies and then a retreat, but that still leaves its mark on financial markets. The US dollar remains near its recent lows against major currencies. Investors are concerned that the retreats may not be comprehensive, and that economic behavior will still have to adjust to accommodate wild policy swings.

US President Trump has retreated from their threat to aggressively tax US consumers of European products, delaying the suggested 50% tariff to July. These retreats are so frequent that investors should rationally expect them. So why do markets still react to the initial announcements, as happened last Friday?

Administration comments suggest US President Trump is willing to increase taxes on US consumers of EU-made products, if the EU does not make unilateral concessions on tariffs. Markets are unlikely to place too much weight on these threats given the president's tendency to rapidly retreat on such issues, but the situation does (again) increase policy uncertainty.

US President Trump labelled the budget proposal trying to pass Congress a “Big Beautiful Bill.” BBB might be an unfortunate alliteration given concerns about the US credit rating. The details of the budget are constantly changing, so their effects are hard to judge, but the broad impact is to push the US further along a rising debt path. Bond investors are less than happy.

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

US President Trump urged Congress to pass the “big, beautiful” budget. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) official urged the US to consider its unsustainable debt level, which this budget will likely make worse. The redistribution effects of the tariffs, spending cuts, and tax cuts does have long term implications. In the short term, the deficit's size is likely the focus.

The team spotlights the factors behind the recent rally in munis, along with improving technicals, and the return of inflows. We also review the House Ways & Means committee tax plan, and spotlight developments surrounding sanctuary city funding. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, & Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Mark Axelowitz, Managing Director and UBS Private Wealth Advisor, and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, hosted a special fireside chat on the outlook for the world, economy, and value investing with Bill Ackman, Founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, and Ryan Israel, Chief Investment Officer at Pershing Square Capital Management

The key message from yesterday's pontification of Federal Reserve speakers was “uncertainty”. Uncertainty about policy, uncertainty about how companies and consumers would react to that uncertainty, uncertainty about second-round effects from tariffs, and so on. The result is a wait-and-see approach from the Fed. The risk is that a reactive policy may come too late to correct any economic damage from all the uncertainty.

Jason rejoins in-studio to weigh in on the recent rally in US equities, the rise in rates over the past month, along with recent developments surrounding US trade policy (notably relations with China), and what it all means for the market outlook? Plus, thoughts on the significance of Moody's US credit rating downgrade, and guidance around portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A credit rating agency (it does not matter which) downgraded the US from something to something else. US President Trump's current policies are unlikely to place the US on a sustainable debt path. Influential donor Musk's DOGE efforts are unlikely to reduce the deficit. Market reactions should be muted—there is little new information. Administration officials attempted to frame the decision in a political context, but some comments also suggested a limited understanding of the ratings process.

A credit rating agency (it does not matter which) downgraded the US from something to something else. US President Trump's current policies are unlikely to place the US on a sustainable debt path. Influential donor Musk's DOGE efforts are unlikely to reduce the deficit. Market reactions should be muted—there is little new information. Administration officials attempted to frame the decision in a political context, but some comments also suggested a limited understanding of the ratings process.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management's multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets. Featured are Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager, and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, & Fatou Konteh, Investment Strategist, UBS Asset Management. Recorded on 05.06.2025

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

The UBS AI Podcast explores the fascinating and evolving world of artificial intelligence, how it's transforming industries, redefining what's possible and reshaping the future. On this episode of the CEO Series, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO for Global Equities within the UBS Chief Investment Office, converses with Lin Qiao, the CEO and Co-Founder of Fireworks.

Justin and Ainsley drop by the studio to explain the importance of funding a liquidity strategy, along with outline considerations when it comes to refilling and implementing a liquidity strategy and determining how much to ultimately set aside. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist with UBS Investment Bank, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the state of the US economy. We also touch on the evolution and impacts of US trade policy, along with the potential road ahead for monetary policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy - Recorded on 05.06.2025

US consumer price inflation did not show many trade tax consequences. The slowing of tourism-related prices might reflect how visitors are wary of entering the US, but complications in timing Easter's effect are also relevant. Appliance price inflation is a concern (the fastest monthly increase since early 2022 may reflect firms anticipating trade taxes).

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on a recent flurry of global deal-diplomacy and market recovery. We also reflect on US-China trade progress (and its' market impact), and weigh whether investors should still be concerned about the prospects for recession in the US.

Investors are inclined to view US President Trump's early retreat from trade taxes on imports from China as significant, not just for themselves but as a signal of a willingness to capitulate to other countries. Markets are not inclined to take Trump's threats of future possible tax increases seriously.

Shane drops by on a Monday to preview a busy week ahead, accounting for President Trump's highly anticipated Middle East visit. We also spend time recapping the outcome of this past weekend's trade negotiations in Switzerland between the US and China, along with other notable progress made recently on the trade front. Plus, and update as to where progress on Capitol Hill stands with respect to tax legislation. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets, against the backdrop of US trade policy uncertainty. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Sino-US talks over the weekend were described by US Treasury Secretary Bessent as making “substantial progress” on trade. Presumably so important a comment was cleared by US President Trump. The only real issue investors care about is how far the US will retreat on trade taxes. Current tariffs effectively halt bilateral trade. An 80% tariff (suggested by Trump) would also effectively halt bilateral trade. A tax of 20% would damage the US economy, but allow trade to continue.

Zhang Zhang is the Head of AI and Risk Analytics at Polen Capital. Listen to a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of AI, where AI is being under and over-hyped, words of caution to be mindful of, along with common current and anticipated future use cases of this rapidly evolving technology. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday's Anglo-US trade framework was preceded by substantial media spin but ultimately revealed only minimal substance. US consumers are worse off than in January, though better off than a week ago. Some UK exporters get better conditions, some US exporters might get better conditions. Yesterday's Bank of England's rate cut was a more important economic event.

The first 100 days marker of President Trump's second term has been reached - Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas (UBS CIO), reflects on the administration's policy priorities and impacts they have had to the US economy, markets, and investment return. We then shift focus to the next 100 days, including a look the notable legislative ambitions being pursued by the White House and Congress. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Having just returned from an enlightening and productive trip to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Burkhard shares his reflections on the Saudi economy's progression in recent years, and spotlights future growth potential. Plus, thoughts on the investment landscape and a preview of a big week ahead for Saudi Arabia with high profile visits spanning heads of state to global business leaders.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell pointed out that uncertainty had risen, and that inflation and unemployment might rise. These are all eloquent statements of the obvious. leaving the Fed reacting to data. Central banks that react rather than pre-empt data tend to be late in changing policy. Economic data is also increasingly less reliable, making data dependency more dangerous.

Paul stops by the studio for a Q2 update on the CEO Macro Briefing Book series - we discuss how uncertainty surrounding the macro environment and course for US trade policy has some investors openly questioning the sustainability of US exceptionalism. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

India conducted military strikes against Pakistan, and Pakistan's defense minister has pledged retaliation. Investors appear to be expecting a relatively contained situation. It is unlikely that global risk appetite will be affected by these events.

As US trade policy continues to evolve and uncertainty remains in the markets, Xingchen drops by the podcast to provide a performance update and outlook for Emerging Market equities. We also discuss the importance of portfolio diversification, and how conditions in 2025 have thus far reflected the importance of diversification. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the investment case for global markets to continue their climb higher and provides a performance update on some of CIO's investment themes. We also cover considerations for investors when it comes to climate change-related investment risks, along with reflect on the potential impacts of Japan's fiscal deficit to global markets.

The manufacturer of Barbie dolls has warned that higher prices are coming to US consumers, as a direct consequence of tariffs. Moving production to the US does not seem to be an option. Rationing dolls to two per child while raising prices has limited consequences, but US President Trump has signaled medicines will be next. Rationing medicines with higher prices may have more significant consequences (raising health insurance prices, for instance).

Jason joins the podcast this week from Zurich as we discuss the drivers behind the recent upside momentum across US equities. Plus, we weigh the upside case for US growth staying even in the face of higher tariffs, reflect on Q1 corporate earnings, and outline the latest allocation recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors await the Federal Reserve's Wednesday policy decision. There is little expectation of a rate change. Preliminary April employment data showed reasonable strength although some areas of job growth (e.g. trucking) are clearly vulnerable as import volumes slow.