UBS On-Air

Despite relatively low trading volumes and narrow trading ranges as of late, there is still plenty factors top of mind for investors that could stir up market volatility in the weeks ahead. This morning, we check-in on the Q2 earnings season, reflect on Fed independence concerns, and assess macro uncertainty stemming from evolving US trade policy. Plus, a review of CIO's market outlook and portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

South Korean export data for the first part of July showed growth, adjusted for differences in working days. Semiconductor sales were strong, and exports to Europe continued to grow. The US habit of taxing its consumers if they buy foreign steel meant exports in that sector were weaker. The data is a reminder that while the US is an important economy, there are other important economies that are not burdening their consumers with additional taxes.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – How AI will feature in upcoming tech earnings, macro uncertainty stemming from evolving US trade policy, and how to think about Fed independence concerns.

Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange thoughts on Fed independence (and the course for monetary policy), the direction of US trade policy (and economic implications), along with 2H25 market outlooks and portfolio positioning considerations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

After this week's events, the question is whether anyone can advocate for US rate cuts without being seen as a political puppet? Yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller offered some (debatable, but valid) economic points in favor of US rate cuts, but the position is politically tainted. The problem for the Fed and markets is that the US administration's policy continues to create considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook.

The UBS AI Podcast explores the fascinating and evolving world of artificial intelligence, how it's transforming industries, redefining what's possible and reshaping the future. On this episode of the CEO Series, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, converses with Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, Chairman of Sinovation Ventures, and CEO of 01.AI.

With 2H25 now underway, Leslie shares a performance outlook for fixed income assets, along with outlines positioning and risk considerations. We also touch on an outlook for interest rates and share views on investment grade versus high yield bonds. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Carli Torres

US President Trump has recently shown an eagerness to change the media narrative. The narrative changed yesterday with speculation about the future of Federal Reserve Chair Powell. That shift might be expensive. Trump declared they had been “surprised” by Powell's appointment. Trump originally appointed Powell.

Shane drops by to highlight the legislative focuses of Congress post One Big Beautiful Bill, including a look into “Crypto Week” which is currently taking place up on Capitol Hill. We also touch on the latest with respect to US trade policy and negotiations with the EU and Mexico. Plus, thoughts on the latest US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US June consumer price inflation gave some troubling signals about data quality—not only are fewer prices being measured, there is circumstantial evidence that budget cuts mean more prices are being guessed. However, on the basis of the numbers provided, it is clear that President Trump's trade taxes are being passed through to US consumers—the monthly increase in consumer appliance prices was the fastest this century.

A mid-year performance recap and outlook for the municipal bond market, including a look at why munis are poised for a better second-half performance. We also cover sector preferences, policy implications, and investment considerations for long-term munis. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US June consumer price inflation is the first number that might show trade tax effects. Only half the expected trade tax rise has hit the economy so far. Inventory stockpiling means pre-tax items are still available. How readily US firms can pass on price increases matters. Post-pandemic inflation made this easier. Tariffs have dominated the (non-Republican) media narrative, making price increases easier. The details, not the headlines, will indicate the potential scale of the inflation surge.

Jason weighs in on range of top-of-mind topics to begin the week, including the resurgence of tariff and Fed independence concerns, along with a preview of the upcoming earnings season and June inflation data. We also touch on why the “Roaring 20s” regime is still in play, and review CIO's current market outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets seem content to assume US President Trump will default to retreating from their latest trade tax threats. If financial investors want to change their position, they can do so at the touch of a button. In the real world, decisions around factory construction or hiring cannot be reversed so quickly, and the random nature of policy therefore raises real world risks that may have consequences.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week - how to think about this past weekend's tariff developments, high equity valuations, June CPI data, and bank earnings.

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs whether investors are entering the summer season with a sense of complacency as markets hover near all-time highs despite persisting uncertainty. We also touch on the prospects for Fed rate cuts in the coming months and the implications of the implementation of “curve control” to investors and global markets.

Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins Shiavon Chatman to recap the trading week - including an update on the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, and thoughts on current US equity valuations. Plus, a preview of the upcoming corporate reporting season, and recommendations when it comes to positioning within US equities.

The latest US tax increases were a 35% tax on products from Canada—in spite of Canadian concessions over digital taxes. It is not clear if the tax applies to all Canadian products, or just products not covered by the revised NAFTA (currently taxed at 25%), or to oil (currently 10%). US President Trump signaled that when they were tired of the lost art of letter writing, all remaining countries would be taxed at 15% to 20% (the penguins of the Heard and McDonald Islands thus know their fate).

Alejo rejoins in studio for a mid-year conversation on the Emerging Markets, including a recap of first-half performance drivers, expectations for the second-half, and thoughts on positioning across emerging market assets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes were a masterclass in the art of sitting on a fence. US President Trump's trade tax inflation might be a one-off, or it might persist. The labor market may be weak enough to justify rate cuts, or not. Uncertainty over trade tax levels is a problem, but the real issue is the lack of clarity about the severity of second-round effects (e.g. profit-led inflation). Masterful inactivity seems the default policy option.

Jordan Brooks serves as Principal and Co-Head of the Macro Strategies Group at AQR Capital Management. With no shortage of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks out there for investors to consider, Jordan explains what is top of mind for his team at AQR, and shares guidance when it comes to navigating these types of risks accordingly (including the role alternative investments can play in a portfolio). Host: Daniel Cassidy

A look at the investment case for Brazil, and why the environment of today differs from that of the past. We also discuss the implications of a weaker US dollar, global trade tensions, and the direction monetary policy to Brazilian assets. Plus, an overview of risk considerations. Featured are Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist, and Laura Smith, Equity Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump announced the start of a new wave of taxes on US consumers, with a 25% tax on US citizens who want to buy products from South Korea and Japan. Other countries' exports also received higher tax rates, but it seems a wasted effort to analyze every Trump social media post when investors understandably anticipate future retreats. Japan and South Korea accounted for around 8.5% of US imports last year, so this tax increase adds 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to consumer price inflation.

Kurt rejoins the conversation to outline the notable takeaways and investment implications of One Big Beautiful Bill, which was signed into law by President Trump on July 4th. We also cover upcoming legislative priorities of Congress, along with an update on trade negotiations, and what to know what upcoming trade-related deadlines. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The additional taxes US President Trump intended to impose on US consumers from Wednesday will now be delayed until 1 August. That means that, allowing for some stockpiling ahead of Christmas, consumers may not experience the inflation spike from these taxes until January next year—assuming that Trump does not retreat again.

The US has been at the vanguard of the global AI revolution, having been responsible for the bulk of innovation, capital spending, and adoption. But there are plenty of underappreciated investment opportunities in the rest of the world. In this podcast, CIO tech guru Sundeep Gantori explains how to gain exposure to AI innovation in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, with co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

The US June employment report was strong enough in the headline to dispel ideas of a sudden US interest rate cut. It was troubling enough in the detail to suggest a more negative outlook for the US economy. Job creation was very narrowly focused.

While optimism over easing tariff risks has buoyed markets so far, the US administration's tough trade stance and the Israel-Iran conflict continue to fuel volatility and uncertainty. How can investors balance opportunity and risk amid these shifting dynamics? Plus, will the US dollar fall further, and what are the key strategies for diversifying beyond the USD?

Tomorrow's US holiday means US labor market data appears today. There is a hint today's report may be weak. US presidents normally see the data the night before release. Last night, US President Trump issued a social media post calling for Federal Reserve Chair Powell to resign. Policy uncertainty and the largest tax increase in modern times are more likely to damage the labor market than Fed policy, but the post might signal weaker data.

Jay Dobson is joined by Rob Thummel for an in-depth conversation about where we are in the energy evolution story, including a look at technological innovations, investment considerations, and what to expect in the years ahead. Plus, thoughts on geopolitical risks to be mindful of when it comes to energy investing. Featured are Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist Americas, with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Rob Thummel, Senior Portfolio Manager, at Tortoise Capital Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Senate passed legislation to enshrine an unsustainable fiscal position into law. The bill goes to the House, where it may run into difficulties. Some fiscal conservatives are unhappy with the unsustainable part of US fiscal policy. Markets are not likely to react to squabbles over details—unsustainable US fiscal policy is well understood, and the economic effects of redistributing from lower income to higher income households will take time to emerge.

Michael Lippert is a Vice President, Portfolio Manager, and serves as the Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital. Listen to a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of AI, including an assessment of the energy requirements to sustain global demand, a look at the global competitive landscape, along with anticipated future use cases of this rapidly evolving technology. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US administration seems to be retreating from the idea of “90 trade deals in 90 days”. With less than a week to go, they have a half-hearted agreement with the UK and a de-escalation with China, and little else. The idea is that interim agreements will be sought, retaining the 10% tax on US consumers of foreign products. Uncertainty about future product-specific taxes appears to be making it more difficult to do deals.

As we officially move into the second-half of 2025, Jason assesses the factors that have driven recent market performance and investor sentiment, along with outlines CIO's near-to-medium term market outlook. Plus, a review the portfolio positioning recommendations per the July UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Over the past few days, Canada and the US stopped talking about trade, and started talking about trade again. Unusually, this was not a unilateral retreat by the US—Canada surrendered its digital services tax. Markets, quite rightly, are ignoring all of this. US President Trump cut taxes on US consumers of UK cars—from today the tax goes to 10%.

Join Jeff Hans, Portfolio Manager with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. We also cover an outlook for growth v. value, the ongoing impact of artificial intelligence to US technology stocks, along with takeaways from recent investor conferences. Recorded on 25.06.18

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists' Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Shane drops by with the latest developments out of the Middle East, as we continue to monitor the US, Israel, Iran ceasefire, and assess last weekend's US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. Plus, takeaways from this week's NATO summit in the Netherlands, and a status update on the Reconciliation package being worked through Congress. We also touch on Congressional efforts to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan exhibited some disinflation with the June Tokyo consumer price data. Using the international definition of core inflation, the rate slowed to 1.8% y/y. A lot of the headline inflation seems to be driven by non-fresh food, perhaps suggesting relative price shifts rather than strong, broad inflation momentum.

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent geopolitical developments, and how global markets (including oil) have responded over the past few days. Plus, an assessment of market valuations, along with outlook scenarios. To conclude, Burkhard reflects on his unforgettable cycling journey through the Swiss Alps, and cites intersections with the world of investing and the rich history of Switzerland.

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent geopolitical developments, and how global markets (including oil) have responded over the past few days. Plus, an assessment of market valuations, along with outlook scenarios. To conclude, Burkhard reflects on his unforgettable cycling journey through the Swiss Alps, and cites intersections with the world of investing and the rich history of Switzerland.

The Wall Street Journal reports US President Trump may announce the next Federal Reserve Chair in September or October. The Senate needs to confirm the Chair, and in Trump's first term was prepared to oppose several of Trump's Fed nominees. Only convention prevents the Fed from overruling the Chair—an obvious political appointee may be ignored by the FOMC. The greatest threat to policy independence would be someone who was not an obvious political puppet but was swayed by Trump's instructions.

Dan rejoins the conversation with Jason in studio to exchange thoughts on how to approach asset allocation in today's market and macro environment. We also spend time weighing potential directions for US trade policy, along with the Fed, geopolitical considerations, and more. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer for PIMCO. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the US yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a speech to members of the House of Representatives (most of whom are not economists). The main messages were: no rush to cut rates, and trade taxes create uncertainty. This will not surprise markets. There was a further softening of the data dependency mantra, as Powell focused on future inflation as a reason to keep rates unchanged for now. Powell testifies again today.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the convergence of public and private credit, along with the risks and opportunities within private credit to be mindful of. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research within the Portfolio Management Group, BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Iran and Israel seem to be saying “if they stop, I'll stop”, although there were some missile exchanges overnight. That is enough for markets, with oil prices back to the levels of a couple of weeks ago (wiping out the potential economic impact). As with situations like North Korea, investors are not inclined to give weight to extreme tail risks, so things like the location of enriched uranium will be overlooked.

With the summer season now officially underway, it is already shaping up to be an eventful one for investors. In addition to this past weekend's geopolitical developments in the Middle East, policy developments on tariffs and taxes, the potential impact of tariffs on the economy, and corporate earnings will keep investors preoccupied. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We live in a world of political polarization and soundbite economics. That encourages sensationalism. Deckchair generals will offer extreme opinions on the US attacks on Iran. Both supporters and opponents the attacks are likely to dramatize events. Investors should be cautious of knee-jerk overreactions.

UBS WM Chief Economist Paul Donovan discusses the current hostilities between Israel and Iran and what they might mean for the global economy and markets. Why have geopolitical crises historically dominated the headlines, but faded so quickly from the attention of investors? And are there tectonic shifts in global politics that investors can't afford to ignore? Paul is joined by co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters

On this week's episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines potential scenarios as to how developments in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran could evolve, and how to prepare your portfolio accordingly. We also touch on what has been a busy week for the Fed, and other global central banks.

European powers begin nuclear talks with Iran, and the US has signaled that it does not intend to decide on military strikes against Iran for two weeks. That means two weeks of uncertainty for financial markets, but investors are still inclined to see the Middle East conflict as a local, not a global, economic issue.