Markets in Focus

Chief Market Strategist Matt Orton, CFA, and Market Strategy Research Associate Joey Del Guercio, CFA, delve into how to calibrate the case for global equities. They also explore what the conflict between Israel and Iran could mean for oil— and everything else —alongside Matt's takeaways from his recent trip to India, submersible drones and the evolution of military spending, what Treasuries can do that gold can't, and more.

Are rising risk asset prices the result of long-term allocation changes or short-term trades? Matt Orton, CFA, and Joey Del Guercio, CFA, talk about debt downgrades, risk asset prices, and whether bond market disruptions are caused by structural flows or genuine increases in the costs of capital. They also discuss the expansionary effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and possibly the most important — but also most overlooked — catalyst for growth in U.S. markets.

Questions about the U.S. dollar's future as the world's reserve currency aren't new. And, yes, some central banks have slowly begun moving to dollar alternatives over the past several decades. Now the questions are back. Announced U.S. tariffs have turbocharged volatility, cast a shadow over economic growth, seen the dollar sell off, and spurred discussion about whether U.S. stocks can continue to surge ahead of their global counterparts. In this episode, Cougar Global Investment Portfolio Manager Jason Richey, CFA, and Antonina Tarassiouk, Fixed Income Analyst with Reams Asset Management, explore whether the dollar and the very idea of U.S. exceptionalism are secure – or are on the brink.

Although it's too early to say that corporate earnings have fallen off a cliff, Matt Orton, CFA, argues that estimates need to be revised downwards — even if they may not need to fall that much. He and Joey Del Guercio consider alternatives to calling a bottom for equities, ask whether the United States is ceding its importance in investor portfolios, and discuss the future path of interest rates, which may be one of the widest disagreements in the market. They also look at shifts in supply chains encouraged by U.S. tariffs, asking whether they will be temporary or part of a longer-term trend.

Investor focus has shifted from fiscal policy to tariff effects, and the ensuing roller coaster of multi-standard-deviation market moves has left everyone wondering what comes next. Matt Orton, CFA, and Joey del Guercio discuss what's happening with inflation expectations, whether the “Fed put” is still in effect, and which narratives can be seen in hard and soft economic data.

The U.S. Federal Reserve had difficulty meeting its interest rate targets in the two decades leading up to COVID — will a more proactive approach deliver better results? Matt Orton, CFA, is joined by Neil Aggarwal, Portfolio Manager and Head of Securitized Products at Reams Asset Management, and Eugenio Aleman, Chief Economist at Raymond James to discuss why 2022's interest rate hikes were different, what the two main sources of household wealth are, and how changes in different asset values can influence consumer behavior.

A steady flow of concerning news from China has caused an extended downturn for emerging market stocks. Still, in his interview with Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management, renowned EM investor Kevin T. Carter noted that he believes the long-term growth trends for these markets remain intact. A rising middle-class is eager to purchase the consumer goods that have long been available to residents of developed markets. The growing use of smartphones is also making access to consumer goods much easier. Carter believes India, in particular, could be the next major EM growth story.

A turbulent 2022 for all categories of stocks and a long-term cycle of outperformance from large caps have caused many investors to lose confidence in small caps. Yet the long-term outlook for small caps could be bright, according to Matt McGeary, CFA, a manager of small- and mid-cap strategies at Eagle Asset Management, and Tim Miller, CFA, a manager of small-cap portfolios at Scout Investments. They believe that a number of trends, such as onshoring, rising M&A activity, and expanding AI capabilities, could all help propel long-term growth for small-cap companies.

Now that the era of “growth at any price” has ended, newly converted value enthusiasts are questioning margins and the true return on their investments. Tariq Siddiqi, CFA, Senior Research Analyst at Eagle Asset Management, refuses to follow the crowd and keeps growth profiles at the forefront, pinpointing companies best positioned to capitalize on persistent secular trends. For Siddiqi, these opportunities include cybersecurity, the shift to cloud computing, the “Internet of Things" (IoT), and the growth of artificial intelligence.

Bonds are once again asserting their role as a store of value, portfolio diversifier, and income generator. James Camp, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income and Strategic Income at Eagle Asset Management, and Burton Mulford, CFA, Portfolio Manager overseeing all of Eagle's municipal strategies, delve into the likely course of monetary policy, its economic impact, and the implications for investors.

Inflation was the dominant story for the market in 2022, but not the only story. Beneath the surface, factors such as growth vs. value often shifted rapidly, temporarily altering the character of the market. Steve Singleton, Head of Portfolio and Investment Risk at Raymond James Investment Management, and Peter M. Schofield, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager for Chartwell Investment Partners' Dividend Value Strategy, discuss whether 2023 could bring more of these inflection points and why – plus how investors can leverage factor investing to navigate market volatility.

With recession looming in 2023, it's worth considering how much the Fed can even do at this point, and whether monetary and fiscal policies have a chance of cushioning the shock once again. Jason Richey, CFA, Co-Portfolio Manager at Cougar Global Investments, provides insights on U.S. versus international markets, minimizing risk, and positioning portfolios for an economic slowdown

Global storms are brewing, and a key question for investors is whether a global recession is inevitable. Antonina Tarassiouk, fixed income analyst at Reams Asset Management, and David Vaughn, chief investment officer for non-U.S. and global strategies at ClariVest Asset Management, discuss possible opportunities in emerging markets that may be poised for growth, despite recession fears.

The credit market has been impacted by duration shocks, high inflation, and rising borrowing costs, leading to deteriorating credit risk. Andy Toburen, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager at Chartwell Investment Partners, unpacks it all and shares how investors can navigate the dynamic credit markets and find areas of opportunity.

The business cycle and the strength of the consumer are expected to play key roles in setting the direction of the financial sector in the rest of 2022. Enrique Acedo, Research Analyst on the Equity Income Investment Team at Eagle Asset Manager, joins Matt Orton to discuss signs of worry and signs of promise in financials – an industry group that it is anything but uniform

“Drill, baby, drill” once was the mantra in the energy patch. But for the past decade, deep value investors have set the tone, demanding dividends and saying, “Show me the money.” Now the industry again is in flux, with no shortage of catalysts: pandemic, war, inflation, looming recession, growth in alternative fuels, and more. Explore headwinds, tailwinds, and trends in the energy sector with Eric Mintz, CFA, Portfolio Manager on the small- and mid-cap growth teams at Eagle Asset Management, and Eric Chenoweth, CFA, Senior Investment Analyst on the mid-cap equity team at Scout Investments.

No one thought 2022 would be easy, but the war in Ukraine, with its shocks to global energy and commodity markets, has made taming inflation even harder. James Camp, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income and Strategic Income at Eagle Asset Management, shares his perspective on credit and equity markets, the “creative destruction” rippling through the U.S. economy, and how the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn't have any good choices, just “the lesser of many evils.”

It would be nice if U.S. equities could find a bottom and recover without a recession. That's what normal market activity often has looked like in the past. Trouble is, we haven't had a lot of normal market activity in the last 15 years, says Jason Richey, CFA, Portfolio Manager at Cougar Global Investments. And that now makes it harder for everyone: central banks, corporate management, and investors alike. Richey shares his thoughts on the impact of inflation, its effects on the consumer, and how, ultimately, investors can position in a markedly bearish environment.

It's not new for companies to report on their efforts to curb greenhouse gases and fight climate change, but there are few dependable and universal ways to compare one company to the next. Now the SEC has proposed new rules aimed at standardizing such disclosures. Joy Facos, Head of Sustainable Investing and Corporate Responsibility at Carillon Tower Advisers, explains why the proposed rules will help empower investors to make meaningful judgments about how companies' work to sharpen the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) focus of their models might – or might not – create long- term value.

Where is blockchain technology right now? Think of the internet in the late 1990s: There's worlds of potential to transform the economy, but also every kind of practical question to be figured out. Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Carillon Tower Advisers, talks with Tariq Siddiqi, CFA, Senior Research Analyst at Eagle Asset Management, about how the blockchain isn't just for cryptocurrency, what makes it a candidate to revolutionize entire industries, and why investors should look at it as a long-term driver of secular growth.

The inflation of 2021 had no shortage of drivers – including spiking consumer demand, supply chain disruptions, and unprecedented monetary and fiscal support for the economy. But what about the inflation of 2022? Rising housing costs are likely to continue to be a factor, while base effects could contribute to inflation peaking. Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Carillon Tower Advisers, talks with John Lagowski, CFA, Research Analyst with Eagle Asset Management, about inflation's likely direction and what investors should think about in the coming year.

Investors once were used to seeing momentum swing between growth and value stocks in a classic economic cycle. But the pandemic subverted all of that, creating shorter mini-cycles as cases rose and fell. Now with interest rates on the rise, a new chapter might be about to unfold. Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Carillon Tower Advisers, talks with John Indellicate, CFA, Co-Portfolio Manager at Scout Investments, Michael Waterman, CFA, Portfolio Manager at ClariVest Asset Management, and Steve Singleton, Head of Risk at Carillon Tower Advisers, about 2022's emerging opportunities in the seesaw world of factor investing.

Energy has seen its weight decline meaningfully across broader market indices over the past 10 years. But it was the best-performing sector in 2021 and many analysts are optimistic heading into 2022. Eric Chenoweth, CFA, senior investment analyst on the mid-cap equity team at Scout Investments, joins Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to explore what accounted for energy's outperformance in 2021 and whether those drivers are sustainable.

During the gold rush, the real money was made not by miners but by the businesses who sold the miners their picks and shovels. Now semiconductors are poised to be the picks and shovels of the coming decade, said Derek Smashey, CFA, Co-Portfolio Manager at Scout Investments. Smashey joins Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to examine what happened to the reflation trade over the last year and what to watch for in 2022 and beyond.

Concentration in the small-cap indices is presenting challenges for investors and active managers. Peter Crivelli, Senior Vice President at Carillon Tower Advisers, joins Matt Orton, CFA, Carillon's Chief Market Strategist, to navigate opportunity in the sectors taking up the most space.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown in popularity and breadth since the early 2000s. How can investors assess potential pitfalls and conduct proper due diligence? Jason Richey, CFA, Co-Portfolio Manager at Cougar Global Investments, joins Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to trace the history of ETFs and consider the future.

Governance, the “G” in ESG, is about “seeing how deeply embedded these issues are in a company's strategy and ultimately their operations,” says Joy Facos, Head of Sustainable Investing and Corporate Responsibility. Joy joins Matt Orton, CFA, to talk about how environmental and social issues – the “E” and “S” issues – are guided by the “G.”

Recent supply chain issues have shed light on the importance of semiconductors in everyday life. Tariq Siddiqi, Senior Research Analyst at Eagle Asset Management joins Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to discuss how the chip shortage could impact the future of the semiconductor industry.

Is the seemingly unstoppable rise of equities a concern or an opportunity for investors? Matt Waz, Senior Vice President and Head of Consultant Relations, switches things up with Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers for a Q&A on “peak everything,” inflation, interest rates, and whether fears of the delta variant are overblown.

The inflation debate is intensifying as fears rise but markets seem to be shrugging. What's driving the disconnect and what happens if, and when, it gets resolved? Todd Thompson, CFA, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Reams Asset Management, and fellow Reams Portfolio Manager, Dimitri Silva, CFA, join Steve Masarik, CFA and Portfolio Specialist, to discuss how inflationary trends could impact the markets into 2022.

Vaccine earnings may be transitory, but “I'm optimistic that the setup for the back half of this year will be more constructive” for the healthcare sector, said Michael Rich, CFA, Research Analyst at Eagle Asset Management. Rich joins Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to explain the innovations in the works that may provide investor opportunity.

International equities are perking up as the world reopens. But stark differences in regional performance mean you need to know what you own. Angel Lupercio, Portfolio Co-Manager on the Scout International team, joins Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to focus on areas of investor opportunity in emerging markets.

Mid-cap stocks have been pushed into the background as investors focus on rotation between large and small, and growth versus value. That might mean a missed opportunity. John Indellicate, CFA, Co-Portfolio Manager on Scout Investments' Mid Cap Equity Team, and Tariq Siddiqi, CFA, Senior Research Analyst on Eagle Asset Management's Growth Team, join Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to dig into the case for mid caps at this moment.

With the Biden Administration aiming to raise taxes, many investors are turning to municipal bonds as a solution. Compared to recent extreme moves in equity markets, the muni market has been downright calm in comparison. Burton Mulford, CFA, Portfolio Manager and trader for Eagle Asset Management's tax-advantaged Fixed Income portfolios, joins Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to discuss how tax code changes – and potential inflation – may affect muni opportunities.

An experiment that started in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis is now entering its second decade, as fiscal and monetary stimulus pours liquidity into the markets. Todd Thompson, CFA, Managing Director and Portfolio Co-Manager at Reams Asset Management, wonders whether policymakers will ever be able to pull away the punchbowl. Todd joins Steve Masarik, CFA and Portfolio Specialist, to discuss how stimulus is distorting markets now and what may happen when the bill comes due.

Consumers have poured into online gaming during the pandemic. Can iGaming companies keep up and adapt? David Cavanaugh, Senior Research Analyst at Eagle Asset Management, says yes – but they face a specific challenge. Dave joins Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to zero in on opportunities in the online gaming space.

With analysts predicting perfection and unprecedented stimulus fueling new market highs, where do we go from here? Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist with Carillon Tower Advisers, breaks down the possibilities and addresses investor concerns with Brian Lee, CFA, Senior Vice President and Head of Intermediary Sales.

Value came roaring back in late 2020 after years of growth dominance. But the next strategic play for investors might not be at either style extreme. Steve Singleton, Head of Risk for Carillon Tower Advisers, joins Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist, to discuss tactics.

After small-cap stocks notched record-breaking performance in 2020, how will they deal with inflation fears? Eric Mintz, CFA, Portfolio Co-Manager at Eagle Asset Management, and Tim Miller, CFA, Portfolio Co-Manager for Scout Investments, join Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers to examine sectors of opportunity.

Bubble trouble is on the minds of many investors as markets reach new highs, meme stocks and digital currencies take off, and fears of inflation creep in. The big questions include: are we in a bubble, and if we are, is it possible to still invest wisely? Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, asks Jason Richey, CFA, Portfolio Manager at Cougar Global investments, to address these bubble worries and more.

Calls for social justice echoed loudly across America in 2020. How are environmental, social, and governance (ESG) portfolio managers taking these trends into account when analyzing possible investments? Joy Facos, Head of Responsible Investing at Carillon Tower Advisers, and Sheila King, CFA, Portfolio Co-Manager and Analyst at Eagle Asset Management, join Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, to discuss how 2020 expanded focus from just the “E” in ESG. 

2021 brought back talk of possible rising interest rates and inflation. Equity markets seem to reach new highs just about every day while questions are arising around the traditional safety of bonds. Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, is joined by Portfolio Managers James Camp, CFA, and Brad Erwin, CFA, of Eagle Asset Management, to analyze the potential opportunities for investors focused on income.

An introduction to our new podcast, Markets in Focus. Podcasts are for informational purposes only. This channel is not monitored by Carillon Tower Advisers. Please visit Marketsinfocuspodcast.com for additional disclosure.