Podcasts about Ed Mills

Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and Nicole Webb of Wealth Enhancement Group break down the market action today and whether more pain is ahead. Earnings highlights included results from Workday, Autodesk, Deckers, Ross Stores, and Intuit. Jon sits down for the latest commentary from Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi. In Washington, the Trump budget bill took a major step forward—Raymond James policy analyst Ed Mills talks through the implications for investors—including winners and losers. Sean Henry, CEO of logistics firm Stord, on how companies are reshaping supply chains in a new world for global trade. 

My Number One (feat. Ed Mills) - Wildson

With a little more than 24 hours until Trump's big announcement, Raymond James' Ed Mills says the tariff talk is just getting started. The sectors and countries he expects to be targeted first—and why we'll still be talking about this in a year's time. If you're looking for names successfully navigating the uncertainty in the meantime, one portfolio manager has an under-the-radar software pick. Plus, Acy Cooper, fourth-generation Louisiana fisherman and captain of the Lacy Kay, tells us why the shrimping industry is rooting for more trade restrictions.    

In this episode of The Wealth Exchange, Ben Jang, Portfolio Manager in the Nicola Wealth Public Assets Group, is joined once again by Ed Mills, Managing Director and Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James. The discussion covers potential impacts of U.S. policy shifts under various leadership scenarios. From bipartisan tensions surrounding semiconductor export restrictions to healthcare reforms and defense spending, Ben and Ed analyze how these developments could influence global markets and investor strategies. They also examine the far-reaching implications of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO dynamics, and key appointments shaping a Trump administration. Sign Up for our Newsletter

In this episode of The Wealth Exchange, host Ben Jang, Portfolio Manager in the Nicola Wealth Public Assets Group, talks with Ed Mills, Managing Director and Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James. Ed shares his insights on the unexpected twists in the U.S. presidential election, including the early debate and the switch in the Democratic nomination. They discuss key policy issues like inflation, housing, and geopolitics, and how these topics may influence the markets. Sign Up for our Newsletter

JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo kick off second quarter earnings season. Argus Research's Stephen Biggar tees up the results. Plus, President Biden is remaining defiant in his fight to keep his campaign afloat. Raymond James' Ed Mills explains. And, the prospect for rate cuts could be a boon for fixed income investors. Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Gurpreet Garewal discusses.

Washington Policy Analyst, Ed Mills returns to the podcast and has wide-ranging discussion with host Chris Cooksey, including:     How bills passed in the last couple of years are only starting to hit the economy. We are talking about Inflation Reduction Act, Chips and Science Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill. How they could be under threat of repeal in a Trump Administration/how they should also be viewed in the lens of national security.   Follow the podcast on LinkedIn: The Advantaged Investor   Please subscribe, rate and review. Reach out at advantagedinvestorpod@raymondjames.ca.

Florida governor Ron DeSantis has ended his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Raymond James' Ed Mills explains. Plus, United Airlines reports earnings today amid turbulence in the sector. Citigroup's Stephen Trent tees up the results. And, Japan's Nikkei continues to move higher, hitting a nearly 34-year high. Allspring Global Investments' Eddie Cheng discusses.

Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, breaks down the year's first US weekly jobless claims report which fell below all estimates. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says we've entered the next phase for bonds as she shifts from long positioning to short. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, previews a busy month ahead in Washington ahead of Congress' return. Steve Trent, Americas Airline Analyst, advises a selective approach with airline investments. Sarah Hewin, Standard Chartered Head of Europe & Americas Research, predicts the ECB will cut interest rates before the Fed.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G10 FX Strategy, breaks down the European Central Bank's decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, discusses the US economy's fast-paced growth in the last quarter. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, says the US won't face a government shutdown in November after Congress elected a House Speaker. Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Sr. Technology Analyst, says AI will be a key focus for Big Tech going forward. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Sr. Research Analyst, says 2024 will be a year of consolidation in the streaming market.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance      Full Transcript:     This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Jeremy Stretch of CIBC as he considers these headlines, not much movement in the market. I've got ero one oh five forty, Jeremy. A key question to me is simple, and that is the idea of what two percent means. These are different economies, different nations. Do you look at it as two point zero percent? Is the ECB Bundesbank hope two point two percent while the FEDS two percent is two point eight percent? Well, of course, the Eurozone is a difficult beast to manage, and I think President Leguard is very mindful of that because, as we've touched upon, there is a very different degree of performance and activity in a number of the different economies across the zone. Now, the Eurozone and ECB is aiming to get back inflation to that two percent target threshold over the medium term. I think it was notable that obviously inflation in September did fall a little fast and the ECB had been expecting. And as I say, I think the next meeting in December will prove to be particularly instructive as we get forecasts out to twenty twenty six for the first time, but also looking at those longer run inflation expectations and if those are back towards the two percent threshold in aggregate across the whole of the zone, and that of course is the difficulty. We will still get divergence in the individual nations, but as an aggregate measure, the ECB is going to be aiming to get back to that two percent target threshold over the course of the next two years. Jeremy, I'm going to go to a wonderful moment I had with the August and here from Leon Jean Claude Trichet, and he talked to me about transmission, the diffusement of an economy across borders. Europe doesn't have the transmission mechanisms of America, do they. Well, there is obviously one of the inadequacies of the Eurozone project is the you know, the difficulties on the fiscal side on a relative basis that the US obviously has because the US has the you know, the federal system, and we do get that disperse into federal funds across the fiscal dynamics. So we are in a situation where the plumbing, if you like, in terms of the Eurozone economy, in terms of monetary and fiscal policy is very diverse because of course fiscal dynamics, and that's still much more at the behest of national governments. But I think the other interesting dynamic to consider as we move into twenty twenty four is that the Eurozone is thinking about bringing back those fiscal thresholds that were put on or suspending during the COVID period, and that will be an interesting dynasm to add to the rinkle about fragmentation risk, and that of course is one of the big concerns that the ECB has to be mindfulwed even if prisident, Legard will try and downplay any concerns at this particular Poet, Jeremy Stretch, thank you so much. October thirty, Apple to announce new MacBook pros I should say Lindsay Piaggs is pleased with that because as she ran her Excel spreadsheet on the American economy at burn Up or MacBook a couple days ago, Doctor piags it joins us now from Stifel as well. How hard is it to put together an Excel spreadsheet with the mysteries of this American economy. Well, it's typically difficult, but it's become increasingly difficult with all of these ancillary factors that are coming in that are virtually impossible to model. We do have a lot of international factors that are impacting the market's expectations. We do have now unprecedented fiscal variables that we're trying to account for. But I think right now the market is very much discounting that third quarter number, focusing onstead on the latest central bank decisions the BOC the ECB as a proxy for what to expect from the Fed next week, suggesting that developed central banks around the world, despite still elevated inflation, are starting to pull back in anticipation of a slower level of longer term growth. So the market very much anticipating the Fed maybe moving to the sideline for certainly a prolonged period of time, but maybe indefinitely at this point. So, lindsay, just to crystallize what you're saying, are you saying that the Fed can kind of look through what we're getting out of this blowout GDP print, or at least that's the market's expectation. No, that's the market's expectation. But remember the market has been preemptively calling an end to FED rate hikes for the past two years and wrongly pricing in rate cuts. The Fed, however, has been very clear beating drum of higher for longer, very consistent in their message, and I think when we look at some of the underlying data in the Q three report, the resilience of businesses, the resilience of the consumer, and yes, to Lisa's point, we have seen a little bit of an uptick in claims, particularly continuing claims, but broadly speaking, the labor market is still extremely tight. So the FED is looking at all of these data juxtaposed with inflation that's still too high. I think the Committee is going to have a very difficult time selling a prolonged period of a pause. I think there is still more work to be done before they reach a sufficiently restrictive level to ensure that we remain on a disinflationary trend back to two percent. Well, Linda, you're getting of what I've been wondering about. Of course, this is a very binary question, and we live in a shades of gray world. But when you think about the just raft of numbers that we got this morning, you take a look at to blow out GDP print, but then you look at initial jobless claims a little bit higher. What's the stronger signal there? Which one should we be focusing on? Oh, the consumer, certainly, And I understand that this is backward looking, but remember claims are extremely volatile, and we don't want to look at one data point, but rather the underlying trend in claims, which is still extremely low, still signaling that tight labor market or tight labor market conditions, which is going to continue to perpetuate the ability for upward pressure on wages, extending that to further purchasing power for the consumer in the marketplace, suggesting again the backbone of the economy, the underlying support of the economy, i e. The consumer remains resilient. There's been a real angst to underpinning some of the recent sell off in the bond market. The longer end that hasn't been tied to the Fed at all. It's been tied to a widening deficit and likely increasing spending. How much is the FED going to find itself increasingly at odds with fiscal spending because you talk about the need potentially for the Feds do more. How much is the strength that we're seeing in the gd preprint tied directly to that government spending. Oh? Absolutely, this is one of the problems when monetary policy and fiscal policy are moving in opposite directions, that's going to force the Fed's hand to take an even firmer position to counteract that expansion of government outlays. Now, we do know that federal stimulus has largely concluded, but there's other fiscal stimulus that's coming down the pipeline as a result of legislation that was passed over the last twelve to eighteen months, be that infrastructure spending, the IRA, the Chips Act, and other spatterings of state and local stimulus that is still being spent on constituents. So there is still a lot of purchasing power, a lot of borrowing and investment power out in the marketplace that the FED is desperately trying to drain out of the system. But again, the more that we see monetary and fiscal policy moving in opposite directions, the more that becomes a barrier for the FED to achieve its goal of price stability. Lindsay. A lot of people are writing in. They're saying that I didn't really have a right to be confused because it's core PCE. When you look at the actual inflation, yes, you're seeing growth, but it is disinflation stare you are seeing a reduced pace of growth when you strip out energy and food. How much credence do you give the idea that we got in this gdpreprint a core PCE read two point four percent. Is that the sort of number to hinge off. It's certainly encouraging, But again, when we look at some of the other data metrics, when we look at headline pc when we look at the headline CPI, we're not seeing this clear downward trend of disinflation. Now, of course, monetary policy is not based on headline price pressures. We strip out those volatile food and energy composedonents. Lindsay piigs a stiff very near her good conversation with US year Edward Mills. Hugely experienced. He is at Raymond James with far more has legit committee, an individual congresspeople's skills in Washington, particularly working with Maloney of New York ed Mills. This new speaker the uproar that I hear, and yet your research note says he can drive to the center. How does the gentleman from Louisiana move the Republicans to a doable center. I think it's going to be a tough task. I think Tom the thing that I am most focused on with the news speaker is how quickly at the end it happens. In DC things appear impossible right up until the moment it's inevitable. So having a unified Republican caucus is not something we would have thought. But the big question in my mind is this is a speaker who has not been vetted, and as he is vetted, how does he come out of that vet? What type of narrative about his leadership? And I think what we're talking about is for him to keep that, for him to keep the seat, for him to be able to govern. Do you need to find the middle, because what we've seen is that the fringe does not support many legislative packages, and that's paralysis. Help me with the sequence here. Course before Kart is November seventeenth and a government shut down prior to the defense allocations you mentioned, the first task of Senate House House Senate is well war funding if you will. Is that going to be before November seventeen? I think it's kind of a toss up between the two. I think to start with the November seventeenth deadline, Tom, we're not going to have a government shut down. It looks like we are going to punt government funding either into January or maybe as far as April. But in doing that there will be the conversation about defense funding. The President has sent up to Congress a robust supplemental package, and what we're hearing is the Senate will want to have a strong, by hardistan vote on that, trying to put pressure on the House, not differentiating aid for Ukraine from Israel or Taiwan. So how do you understand the fact that Mike Johnson has made a real important issue of his cutting the deficit, and yet there are all of these requests to finance some pretty big military expenditures. How much is that going to be a sticking point that makes it uncertain whether we get this aid across. We were speaking earlier with John Lieber of Eurasia and he was saying, we're going to get it passed. Are you as confident? I am confident that will get something passed. I think that the big question is timing in the scale of this, Lisa. When you go back to some of the other pushes to become speaker, this was probably most out in the focus during the push for Jim Jordan. The only way some of the defense hawks within the Republican Caucus who were willing to support him and the expectation is the only reason why they're willing to sport Johnson was that they needed to get a guarantee on a robust defense bill extra defense funding in the Defense Authorization Act before the end of the year. That group is far greater than the ord needed to keep that speakership. So if he wants to keep that speakership, he's been against that Defense aid in the past, and especially voted against Ukraine aid, but the geopolitical environment's very different now in his political position is completely changed and ed to do all that. You made the point that Johnson really needs to find the middle here. But if he doesn't, I was speaking to Henrietta Treys Yester and she made the point that the Senate is still functional. That's the saving grace because at the end of the day, the House will do what the Senate tells it to do. You agree with that logic largely. I think when you see the Senate, if they pass something with eighty ninety votes, it's not a politically tenable position not to even have a vote on that in the House. And if you were to have a vote on something that ascid with eighty or ninety of one hundred votes in the Senate, in the House is near guaranteed to have a majority go to the president's desk. And I do think Johnson has a little bit of leeway here where he doesn't have the baggage of some of the previous ones. So some of the first fights, which will be government funding and defense funding, he's not necessarily going to get blamed for the position that Republicans are in because he's new to the job. Hey, you know, Ed Mills, I look at this. I was taking ann Rey hoard in three to zero two, which is advanced Civics lessons inside the Beltleigh, and I guess every speaker has a lot of power. Is he going to blow up the leadership of the Republican Party or is he going to attach himself to, say the hockey player from Minnesota and the others. Well, I think he's going to attach himself to the majority leader. I think i'd go back to the last time we had a speaker that no one really had heard of, which was Speaker Hasser. And you have the most empowered majority leader of in decades with Tom Delay when you saw him have the press constraints and there was some booze by Virginia Fox. What I was watching is Steve Scalise, the majority leader from his state of Louisiana, was standing right behind him and told him exactly what he said. He said, next question, let's talk about policy. Then Mike Johnson said, next question. So he is a lockstep with the current majority. And that is the Edmills perspectives. It's so valuable with Raymond James, Edmills, thank you so much. Meta shares not diverging from the rest of the complex, shares falling after the company warned a quote uncertain revenue outlook for next year. This was the dominant narrative, even though the tech giant beat expectations on third quarter revenue. All of this dashing hopes for a long term recovery in the company's advertising business. It's spending, though aggressively in other areas and artificial intelligence and virtual reality. It raises this question, you know, what are people hinging onto just this hope of uncertainty or expectation of uncertainty that we all know just Instagram? You know, it's just Instagram. It's it's what Storm's doing over at Instagram plus six classics, mandeep sexy technology analytics through Instagram and Go. That's a short Bloomberg Intelligence joining us. Now, Mandy, what does it tell you that they came out with really good earnings at least on the fundamental basis that they say that there's uncertainty and that they share sell off. Well, so I think they gave a pretty broad guidance thirteen to twenty four percent for next quarter. When you see that sort of white guidance, you know, you know the company is not sure and they didn't have that sort of uncertain guidance on the expense side, So they said reality labs losses would mount, and I think fear that company is really feeling the investors is not giving them markers around what they're actually doing. I mean, losing fifteen billion dollars a year on reality labs and not telling what you are investing in. Because we know Apple has a new virtual reality headset. It didn't take them fifteen billion dollars to make that headset. So clearly they are investing in something that nobody knows, and I think that's the uncertain How is AI different for Zuckerberg than AI is different for Google where AI is different for Microsoft, So there is an overlap between Google and Meta's version of AI versus Microsoft's and microsofce corporate. I got to get a job done. Let's go Yeah, and what's Meta's AI is? You are consuming Instagram feeds, Facebook feeds, I mean the average user is, and so how can AI enhance that experience both for the consumer as well as for the creator who's creating content for the feed? And AI can offer you a lot of tools to generate images based on text description. So there's a lot that AI can do in messaging, think of customer service, you know WhatsApp, so this AI and Instagram. I don't buy it AI and Amazon this afternoon. What is Josie going to spin on AI? Amazon? I mean amazonal story hardboard box is about compute training the models. Everyone wants these GPUs to train their large language model. They're buying AI from Microsoft. I saw that ten days ago or so, right, Yeah, well they are upgrading their three sixty five on Prime version to Microsoft. So completely lost. And so that's the thing about the generative AI wave that it is quite broad and every company can use it in different ways. Some companies are focusing on training models, some are focused on inferencing use cases. And you don't even know what this is, Cady. It feels like a Morcan mindy skip. You know, Robin Williams is going no, no, no, no. I just everybody's got a different definition of AI or I guess they're trying to play for a different part of this large pie that everyone sees with generator. Save me. Let's talk about something we all know. Let's talk about the cloud business at Amazon. Of course AWS. You saw sales growth there slow to a record low in the second quarter. We know that the cloud business was why Alphabet had such a bad day yesterday. What are we going to see out of the cloud business at Amazon? I mean, the good thing is expectations are lower for Amazon, and we're talking about mid teen's growth for AWS, and yes, it has the largest base in cloud, but everyone perceives them to be behind with generative AI workloads. That may not be the case, and so there is room for an upside as long as they prove to the street that you know, they are catching up with Jenai and offering the compute that everyone needs to train their models and not to go back in time. But you think about what happened at Alphabet, I mean, I'm just stuck on the share price move yesterday down almost ten percent, worst day since March twenty twenty. Is that an overreaction? Was it that bad with Alphabet? It definitely feels felt like an overreaction, simply because the search business actually did remarkably well, and unlike Meta, which continues to see ad pricing declined, Alphabet saw an ad pricing increase, which is a positive sign. It's an auction mechanism, so advertisers are bidding up for your ads. And there was talk about uncertainty yesterday around the Middle East war and everything that will draw down the advertisers spending. But clearly Alphabet had a positive print on the search side and the cloud side. Really the expectations were too high, So I think that's where Amazon may have an advantage going into the print. I want to try to understand the psychology of the investor base in some of these tech names, because it's been shifting over time and we've seen that. What are we learning about what the key triggers are going to be to buy and what the key triggers are going to be to sell after the games that we've seen so far this year. I mean, look, the cost of capital is going up, and so I think the days of spending fifteen billion dollars a year on moonshots are probably gone even for larger companies, as long as they keep deliver bring you know, twenty percent plus growth meta for Meta. Everyone is okay with them spending on reality labs. The moment that growth decelerates, that's when that fifteen billion dollar loss really becomes a sticking point for free cash flow. Is that the reason why you expect things for Amazon to be positive because they have that infrastructure AWS, which is the major player in the cloud space, they have that revenue coming in, they have Tom Keynes offspring buying lots of boxes. How much is that really going to play into a positive that could offset some of the negativity that we're hearing from the likes of ups this morning. Clearly, I think everyone believes that, you know, digital transformation, generative AI. These are secular trends, and right now, I think for Meta to spend thirty billion dollars in capex and not have a cloud business or something equivalent is also sticking out because that could have been a key source of diversification for them. This is an arch question. Do you and Anna rod Rana see the cloud business? I have no idea what I'm saying when you see the cloud business? Is it a classicdopoly or triopoly or can there be a set you know, number five sixty seven players. I just don't buy it. I mean, right now it's a triopoly and Oracle actually is investing a lot in building it's cloud investing. But do you believe people can grab share and come down and make a fundamental free cash flow generation or is it going to squeeze into a triapoly? No? I think you can, because right now the compute. Nature of compute is changing, so it's not CPUs consumed on the cloud anymore, it's GPUs, different types of accelerators, different types of databases, and that's where if you don't have a legacy business, which Microsoft does, I think Google has an advantage. Amazon has an advantage that they don't have a legacy business, and that's where they can keep building that Joining us right now, John Fair on assignment, Kavin Greifeld with us this morning. Michael Nathanson joins. This is senior research analyst at Mofatt Nathanson on a pluthor of things. Lisa, why don't you drag in Nathanson here on Facebook because you know the story better than I do? All right, Michael, thank you for joining us. I want to start with the one note of caution that really drove all of the price action. They came out and said, we don't know what's going to happen. What else is new advertising? Who knows? Oh my goodness, the stock fell. How realistic is this or instructive of what we can expect in the year to come. Yeah, I was disappointed by that fact that the market took that comment around with him. These guys just put up twenty three percent AGROTH in a quarter and a year ago. People were thinking this business was dead, right, all the momentum is behind them. They called out a little bit of choppiness because what's happening in the Middle East. But I don't think it was that big of a deal. I mean, their guidance is still pretty strong, So I think this is This is an amazing story in terms of Tom and T Mobile. This could be. This could be the second story. People have just underestimated the strength of a business model. The recover it has been amazing. There's been a lot of There's been a lot of questions though around just in general the online advertising business, especially at a time where all of the content creators are facing off with consumers that really don't like advertising and are willing to spend to avoid it. How much are we seeing with respect to consolidation of market share at the likes of Meta at a time when Google also saw an increase in ads bend despite their cloud issues. What does that tell us about the overall market versus just consolidation with the leaders? Okay, big picture, those two companies, the growth rates of Meta and Alphabet are back to where they were in early twenty two. So if you remember the past couple of quarters, there's all kinds of worries about e commerce slowing. It's getting better about changes to Apple's IDFA system that's been fixed. So it says to you like the market's actually really healthy and that you're seeing kind of the structural tailwinds and online gaming discontinue. Right. We had a very tough compare in twenty twenty two that's now behind you. So I felt pretty good about the health of this business with the scale. Prayers for a snap for a Twitter go luck to you. It's not going to happen, you know. Michael math is a congratulations. Netflix has done a double. It's off Mark Mahaney. What's he know? He's going up another one hundred dollars on Netflix review for us, the winner of streaming is Netflix and a Microsoft equivalent, even at thirty eight times earnings. It's a good question, Tom. It's different than Microsoft because you don't have the operating leverage you know, longer term, right, so you have to keep investing in content. The great thing about software models is that incremental margins are massive. Once you build it, you get the benefit of scale. In media for the most part. In the streaming model, you have to keep an investing in content, so they'll have margin leverage, but nowhere near the same margin leverage of what we saw last night with Meadow or Microsoft. So but in streaming there a winner. It's because it's such a tough business for everyone that's not in Netflix right now. So it's really there's one winner. There's Disney, and then there's everyone. Disney's not even a winner yet, and they're going to just churning cash flow to get your attention. Yeah, I mean, you know, I just brought up the Disney chart. You know, I just do we do this for Michael Nathanson, folks to give him, give him a little bit of angst here on a Thursday morning, Michael Nathans and Disney is back to twenty fourteen pricing. Help yeap, When does it turn You've been wrong, wrong, wrong. It's been like the New York Yankees. It's a disaster. I say, when does thank you? When does Disney Chern? Can? I say? Upgraded? When Bob Eyer came back in ninety bucks And it's just been painful to me. So thank you Tom for reminding me it's good, so we do about it. It's got exactly and sell and sell houses in the suburbs. So here's what here's what I think is going to happen. Twenty twenty four is a year of they have to consolidate Hulu and Disney plus margins and streaming or negative netflixes are in the twenties. To me, it's about streaming profitability in twenty twenty four, and they have to get who in house, which is going to happen by hopefully the end of the year. So I've a lost hope in Disney. I think that is again, I think this is your meta in twenty four. I mean a year ago people were killing the stock, and I think that Disney could be a great stock in twenty four, but you need to get streaming margins up to a level that people start caring about, which is gonna take some time. Well, Michael, it's really interesting to hear this conversation because you're still a buy on Disney. Okay, it could be a great stock in twenty twenty four, But to meditate a little bit longer on your Netflix comments, you're still neutral on the stock. What would bump you up to a buy bump m to buy would be to have earnings numbers because evaluation to Thomas point to me is it's pretty full. Look at it versus Google, Alphabet or Meta. To me, it's having faith and numbers that are above consensus. And I think we all have the same numbers now we pretty much a model with the companies told us there's no way to doubt it at this point, So you know, pretty much we're just debating multiple at this point. I don't think people have a real edge on earnings. And our numbers pretty much were consensus. We're at Meta and other names. We've been above consensus and that's been our call. You know. We we have conviction that numbers are wrong. To the upside, we will get very aggressive about the buy rating. And when it comes to Netflix and the streaming business in general, how does Netflix maintain market share here? Does that really all just come back to the content slate? Well, it's interesting. You know, when they built their business, they borrowed other people's content, and we were writing for many years and that was a dumb idea. So they would rent the office, they would rent friends. Given the state of media, you're starting to see evidence that they could go back to renting other people's content, which is a very cost effective way to build a business. So what can happen longer term is that they could blend from making all these originals, which is a much tougher business, to renting people's movies and TV shows and given and again the state of media companies, that can happen. You know, I don't think Disney will do that, but you know, Warners, Paramount, you know, NBC Universal talked about licensing more content. Michael, what do you expected to hear after the bell when we get Amazon earnings, particularly around the acquisition of content having to do with sports. NFL the last sort of death now for cable, Right, So Mike Morton covers Amazon for us. He's very bullish on next year's margin opportunity. They're going to be looking at the NBA. Right, So the NFL has gone well for them, The ratings are up in a really strong amount this year, and the NBA is the next big package for grabs, and there's a good chance that they can get a slate of games, you know, getting out Tuesday or Thursday night games. So I think they're going to tell you that, Look, it's going well you see this as a chance, to your point to really distance remediate cable networks thein thing. They're going to go for it. So you know, Amazon to us is is really in the second or third position behind ESPN for getting the next set of big rights. Here for Sports Award winning Michael Nathanson was just decades of good good news is here. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bob Michele, JP Morgan Asset Management Global Head of Fixed Income says the Fed won't go to 5.75% - 6% rates. Nadia Lovell, UBS Global Wealth Management Senior US Equity Strategist says the earnings recession is over. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst weighs in on a looming government shutdown. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder and Head of Research shares her outlook for oil prices.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With just days until a government shutdown, Raymond James' Ed Mills takes a look at the potential impact on both stocks and bonds. Nevermind the office space, here's the hospitality industry. Why hotels could be the next commercial real estate headache. Plus, Goldman's Jeff Currie makes the bullish case for copper and oil in his last on-air interview while at the firm. 

The latest Federal Reserve monetary policy decision is due out this afternoon, where they're expected to hold rates steady. Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok previews the outcome. Plus, Congress now has 11 calendar days to pass a short-term measure to avert a government shutdown. Raymond James' Ed Mills discusses what's at stake. And, high prices, record mortgage rates, and low inventory are putting pressure on the housing market. Housing Wire's Logan Mohtashami explains.

What happens when the government hits pause and the financial markets hold their breath? On the latest episode of the Macrocast, Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James, joins Ylan Mui and Brendan Walsh to discuss the potential effects of a government shutdown on markets. The group explores the possible twist of a temporary funding extension and the seismic shift this could cause in consumer sentiment.Later, our experts turn to the 2024 elections and the heavyweights that could influence voters' decisions—including economic and social issues, healthcare woes, and legal battles. The episode also examines the U.S.-China relationship, particularly in light of Secretary Raimondo's recent trip to China. You won't want to miss it!

Anthony Capuano, Marriott International President & CEO, doesn't see the end of "YOLO" traveling happening anytime soon. Michael Gapen, BofA Securities US Economist, says good news is back to being bad news. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Sr. Fellow, discusses Saudi Arabia pledging to cut a million barrels a day in July. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, says the 2024 elections will be a wildcard for markets.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The oil market is coming off a disastrous month, which WTI posting its worst performance since November 2021. Rystad Energy's Louise Dickson recaps the month. Plus, the House passed the bipartisan debt ceiling bill by a wide margin last night despite some strong opposition from far-right Republicans. Raymond James' Ed Mills discusses the next steps. And, with Memorial Day posting a record surge in air travel, what's ahead for the summer experiences landscape? D.A. Davidson's Tom White weighs in.

While President Biden is in Japan for the G7 conference, the White House says Democratic negotiators are making progress in their debt ceiling talks. Raymond James' Ed Mills explains the latest. Plus, Deere reports earnings this morning, offering insight into the state of the economy. D.A. Davidson's Michael Shlisky discusses his expectations. And, new research suggests more traders are favoring bonds over stocks as the US3M hits new highs this week. Apex Financial's Lee Baker, Main Street Asset Management's Erin Gibbs, and Pivotal Invests' Tiffany McGhee break down their investment strategies.

The Fed kicks off its two-day policy meeting today, where a tenth interest rate increase is expected. Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Ashish Shah breaks down his expectations. Plus, President Biden has reportedly called for an emergency meeting at the White House to discuss how to avert a U.S. debt default. Raymond James' Ed Mills discusses the latest. And, Uber reports earnings this morning as the ridesharing company continues to outperform rival Lyft. D.A. Davidson's Tom White explains which stock he prefers.

Dustin and Ed discuss aspects of planning and optimizing procurement teams in higher education, and options for creative resourcing through external Procurement as a Service capabilities. This session was a Choose to Connect session at that NAEP 2023 conference.

Authors: Lawrence Charles, Kris Hall and Chris WoodardA new episode of The State Hornet Podcast features Hornet staffer Lawrence Charles and editors Kris Hall and Chris Woodard covering the retirement of Student Affairs Vice President Ed Mills, who is stepping down after 15 years at Sacramento State. We also get a behind the scenes look from the recent Spring Fashion Show as well as how Sac State faculty are responding to the recent use of Chat GPT by students.Related State Hornet stories: https://statehornet.com/2023/04/sac-state-ed-mills-leaving-sac-state/    https://statehornet.com/2023/04/sac-state-chatgpt-ai-tools/  https://statehornet.com/2023/04/grad-photos-sac-state-spring-2023/ 

President Biden is preparing to release his latest budget to Congress, with a key piece of the budget involving higher taxes on wealthy Americans to help fund Medicare for at least the next 25 years. Raymond James' Ed Mills gives the details. Plus, Mastercard is out with its latest read on retail sales as the American consumer continues to show resilience. Mastercard Economics Institute's Michelle Meyers is here with a first look at the report. And, traders are now pricing in a 78% chance of a 50 basis point hike at this month's Fed meeting. Fernwood Investment Management's Cate Faddis and Credit Suisse's Patrick Palfrey discuss the impact on markets.

William Strange is a Professor of Economic Analysis and Policy at the Rotman School. William is former Editor of the Journal of Urban Economics (with Stuart Rosenthal), and he served in 2011 as President of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. He works in the areas of urban economics and real estate. His research is focused on agglomeration, industry clusters, labor market pooling, skills, private government, real estate development and real estate investment. In this episode we talked about: William's Background and how he got into Real Estate Rotman School Real Estate Program Paper Analysis of Skyscrapers Macroeconomic Outlook Urban Economics Resources Useful links: Book “Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, and Happier” by Edward Glaeser Book “The New Geography Of Jobs” by Enrico Moretti https://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/FacultyAndResearch/Faculty/FacultyBios/Strange.aspx Transcription: Jesse (0s): Welcome to the Working Capital Real Estate Podcast. My name's Jessica Galley, and on this show we discuss all things real estate with investors and experts in a variety of industries that impact real estate. Whether you're looking at your first investment or raising your first fund, join me and let's build that portfolio one square foot at a time. Ladies and gentlemen, my name's Jesse for Galley, and you're listening to Working Capital, the Real Estate Podcast. My guest today is William Strange. Will is a professor of economic analysis and policy at the Rotman School that's at the University of Toronto.   He's the former editor of the Journal of Urban Economics, and he served in 2011 as president of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. He works in the area of urban economics and real estate. His research has focused on industry clusters, labor market, pooling skills, private government, real estate development, and real estate investment. Will, thanks for being here. How's it going?   William (58s): Thanks a lot for having me, Jesse. It's going great.   Jesse (1m 1s): Well, I appreciate you coming on. Like we said before the show, I thought there's a couple different areas of research that I thought we could jump into and, and I think the listeners would get a lot out of. But before we do that, why don't we kind of circle back to you in, in your current role at the University of Toronto and kind of what you're working on today, how did that all come to fruition? How did you get into, into this business of real estate?   William (1m 25s): Well, I got into real estate as an urban economist, so when I went to graduate school, my favorite undergraduate econ class was urban. I liked it because there are so many things going on in cities. Cities are just interesting organisms. And so I, I pursued a PhD at Princeton with Ed Mills, who is the father of the feet, modern field of urban economics. That ended up with me at U B C amongst the real estate folks. And I gradually came to understand just how interesting real estate is too, and just how much an urban economist will have to say about real estate, you know, both on the residential and commercial side.   I feel incredibly fortunate that I've lucked into a, a career as satisfying as this one has been.   Jesse (2m 8s): That's great. And the current role that you have at Rotman, so for people that aren't, aren't familiar, that's the, the business school at the University of Toronto. The, the teaching that you do there, is it predominantly undergrad is,   William (2m 21s): It's almost entirely MBA and PhD. I teach some vanilla economics, which I think is important too. Yeah. But, but we also teach a bunch of econ cla a bunch of real estate econ and real estate finance classes. One thing that I would say to your audience is I'm also the director of the Center of Real Estate at Rotman, and we periodically put on public events, we put on one on downtown recovery back in December that was addressing the different pace at which downtowns were repopulating as Covid fingers crossed, recedes.   And, and we were scheduled to do a housing market one with City Post in March, and we'll keep doing them as interesting policy issues emerge. We are, we, we welcome people from outside Rotman. Please come everybody.   Jesse (3m 12s): Yeah, that's great. The, and we want to jump into one of the papers that you did, you did regarding covid. Before we do that though, I'm curious, you know, people in our industry, when we think of schools that have a real estate program at the MBA or or higher level, you know, whether it's economics or finance or real estate, I think of, you know, Rotman, I think of Osgood. A lot of people have gone to Columbia and New York for their Ms. Red program. Has that, how long has that program been the real estate specific aspect of it? How long has that been something that has been at Rotman?   Because I, I feel like you guys were one of the first to actually have the, that specialization.   William (3m 48s): It's nice of you to say, but it was, it started building up when I came in 2001 and we've specifically p positioned ourselves to not duplicate other programs. Like I, I, I like the SCHOOK program very much, but there's no reason that we need to do something that's as specialized as their program is, given that they already have such a program that's, that's a good program. So what we have done is to set up a smaller real estate program. We have three electives of the 10 classes and MBA would take with the idea being that people in real estate benefit from taking things outside of real estate, you know, that a good real estate person needs to know about finance, a good real estate person needs to know about strategy and my various colleagues in Rotman can help in those ways very much.   Jesse (4m 33s): Yeah, no, that makes sense. So before we, we jumped on here, we, we talked about a paper that kind of pid my interest and it was just being in the commercial real estate world and it was a basically a, a paper analysis of skyscrapers. I thought before we jump into this Covid paper, we could talk a little bit about this, this paper that you did regarding skyscrapers.   William (4m 53s): The skyscraper paper is still pretty relevant. I mean, what it's motivated by is that we're living in a new era of skyscrapers that if you look at something online like the skyscraper page, you can see the big buildings that people are planning to build. The Empire State Building was the biggest building in the world for on the order of 40 years before the World Trade Center. It has since been sub topped by Burge Dubai. And there are other buildings that are, are also really large that are either recent or, or that are being planned.   The big question is, are these big buildings being built big because it's economical to do so? Or are they being built big for some other reason? You know, possibly ego reasons, possibly other stuff. And so we have analyzed skys, this is in my paper with Bob Helsley from UBC. In this paper we look at skyscrapers as a contest for who is the biggest, this, this is assuming that people want to be bigger than the other person. Let me give you a couple of historical examples of that.   I mean, people did look at whether h skyscrapers were economical in the 1930s after the big skyscraper wave of the twenties and thirties. That was mo allowed by things like structural steel and elevators. And we see there a lot of stuff that looks game theoretical. So one story is the story of the lower man of the Manhattan Company building, which is now Trump's lower Manhattan building. And, and, and the incredibly beautiful art deco Chrysler building.   And they were each built to be the biggest building in the world at the time. Manhattan Company building finishes first, so it has a ceiling on it, and they are very happy because the ceiling on the sky on the Chrysler Building is, is gonna be lower. So for some reason, the Chrysler building did not build an extra a hundred feet that would've made them bigger than the Manhattan Company building. And, and this has an added issue of personal interest, that the lead people on both of those projects hated each other. They used to be partners. There was a breakup of their partnership and, and not the owners of the buildings, but the architects despised each other.   Unbeknownst to the people who built the Manhattan Company Building with the Chrysler Tower, the most famous thing about it, if, if the readers Google it right now, you'll see it is the spire at the top. It was hidden inside the structure, so people didn't know what happened. And so they waited until the Manhattan Company building had reached its ceiling and then they raised like a giant middle finger, the spire of, of the Chrysler building, which made it an extra 50 feet taller than the Manhattan Company building. It's really hard to argue that there is some economic tenants paying rent sort of argument that would make you do something like that.   That's one example. Another example is the Empire State Building, which I mean we've all seen King Kong bu movies, so we know how the Empire State Building looks, but, but the, you may not know that the spire on top of the Empire State Building, which made it by a couple hundred feet bigger than the Chrysler Building when it was built, that was originally pretended to be a Zeppelin loading dock. So people would be taking international flights by blimp and, and on top of Manhattan where winds are pretty big, they, they would tie the Zeppelin on and then people would get off on on it.   No one ever did that. That was just totally a fiction to allow the building to be as big as it could possibly be. So in, in, in this paper, we look at that as what is called in game theory and all pay auction. That's an auction where you have to pay, even if you don't win in, in this case, you pay to build the building even if you don't win the race of having the very biggest building subsequent to our paper, which was theoretical. Others have looked in various ways for empirical evidence in the data, and there seems to be a lot of it around the moral of the story being some of these big buildings look like they should be built based on economics, or at least you can make a justification of building such a big building on economic grounds.   But there's a lot of evidence that people wanna build a little bit bigger than the other guy, even if it's not economical because of the prestige that seems to go with being the biggest building in a market or in the world or of a particular type. If you look online, you'll see all kinds of lists of, you know, biggest office building, biggest residential building, biggest building in Canada, biggest building in Toronto. It seems to be something that people do care about and not simply just the economics of, of building real estate space for tenants to use.   Jesse (9m 29s): Yeah, that's a fascinating story. I'm almost embarrassed to say I I had never heard of that. So they continued to build with regard to the Manhattan Chrysler, they continued to build hiding the spire within, within the   William (9m 41s): Envelope, within the structure because the seal structure, you know, you can have it own. And then they literally leveled it up. There's a, I forget who wrote it, but there was a book, there's a book on this whole episode, which I think is a fascinating story. Yeah.   Jesse (9m 51s): Oh, that's great. Yeah, that it's, it's interesting too, I'm reading a book right now that New Kings of New York by The Real Deal, and it talks about a lot about kind of the Trump era of New York when it was the, the basically push to build more and more price per square foot condos, high-end condos. And it was really almost a race of who could build the best, the the tallest. And it became a lot of, seemed to be a lot about ego rather than economics.   William (10m 16s): Yeah, I mean, I think ego matters in real estate. Look, I mean, I I'm just a professor, I just write papers. Somebody who actually builds tall buildings can, you know, look at this thing that they've built and I understand why people's personalities are invested in it and why, you know, they wanna build buildings that are deemed to be significant. I mean, for a long time the, the CN Tower was the biggest structure in the world, and people make a distinction between occupied buildings and unoccupied structures. And so, you know, clearly we in Toronto are, are not immune to building buildings for ego-based reasons.   Jesse (10m 51s): And it was there a distinction in your research between commercial skyscrapers as opposed to residential towers? Or, or was it,   William (10m 59s): I mean, the early ones were, were all commercial and, and well, I mean the Eiffel Tower shows people how structural steel lets you build stuff that's big and then the Woolworth building becomes the biggest building in the world. And then as supplanted, as I said a little while ago, briefly by the Manhattan Company building the, whatever the Trump building is in lower Manhattan and, and Chrysler, they were commercial. But now, now we see people building big residential buildings. I mean, it, it can be problematic. The, the, the former Sears Tower, and I'm having a brain cramp now about its current name, Willis Tower.   I believe it, it was renamed a while ago. It had a problem after its initial construction because it was big enough that the building swayed in the wind and, and this made people feel very uncomfortable. And so there was a period of time and it, it could continue. I'm not sure whether it is or the tallest, the, the, the highest suites in that building were used for storage because people didn't wanna be up there because it wiggled around too much. Yeah. And, and, and just made them uncomfortable for residential.   I mean, I don't know what your experience is, but I have a friend who was on the 40th floor of a Toronto building and which, you know, he thought was beautiful, gave him a view of the lake and so on and so forth. But during covid when you don't wanna be in the elevator with a lot of people or worse still, if the elevator is slower is not running, you know, 40 stories is a long ways to walk.   Jesse (12m 24s): Yeah, absolutely. Well the one with the Willis Towers kind of, that'd be Chicago too, so I I'm sure it, it, it'd get pretty windy up there. I think for us, if, if I'm not mistaken today, our first Canadian place, at least in the Toronto area.   William (12m 38s): Yeah. Ever since it's been built, that's been the biggest building in Canada and it's, it's of course commercial. Yeah. There are some things that I believe people are considering that might be bigger but haven't been built yet.   Jesse (12m 48s): So you, you mentioned something that you ask your class at Rotman question that I, right before we got on this call, I would, I would've failed and can pose the question to, to listeners that you normally ask your class at Rotman.   William (13m 2s): Well the, I mean, I I've said that this is an era of skyscraper construction and I've talked about the earlier one. And the question is what is it that it took for us to have skyscrapers? And it turns out there are two things that it took. It took structural steel and it took elevators. And before I ask the question, I can give you the elevator story because that is also one that's worth hearing. Sure. Elevators are old. They're like, they're like, Archimedes figured out how you could use pulleys to lift things. The problem with a, a classical elevator is if the cable was cut, the elevator would fall and whatever was on it, including humans would be destroyed.   And, and, and thus elevators were not used, you know, for large distances for human beings because it was just considered to be too dangerous. The name that most people will associate with elevators is Otis. And, and Otis went to the New York World's Fair in, I believe 1856, give or take two years. And he demonstrated his safety elevator. And the way he did it was he was pulled up in the elevator with a very sharp sword in his hand to about 40 feet with an audience watching him. And then he cut the cable above the, the rope that was on the elevator above himself and the audience went, Ooh, because the, they, they were sure that he was now going to fall to his death.   But the Otis elevator's innovation was, it didn't fall, it was a safety elevator and it had automatic brakes that would arrest it. Before that you wouldn't see apartment buildings that were any bigger than six stories. Cuz you know, six stories is a lot to walk up. You wouldn't wanna walk up 10. But now once you have elevators, vertical distance is not a barrier anymore. And that really changes the ability, the demand for big buildings on the supply side. This is my question, what was the biggest building in the world in 1850 around when the elevator was developed and before skyscrapers were, were started to be built?   So I'll leave leave you a minute to think about it. Look it up on Wikipedia or, or whatever the answer is that the biggest building in the world was the great pyramid from something like 1400 bc. Why is that worth mentioning? Because it's a masonry building and, and the key feature of masonry buildings is that the supporting walls on the lower floors have to get bigger and bigger as the building gets taller in or in order to bear the weight to say, to say nothing of earthquakes and other problems with masonry buildings, structural steel changes that structural steel lets you go up.   I mean it's, it's incredibly robust. We don't always use structural steel. Now the World Trade Center did not to, to its peril. It used much lighter framing. And that was one of the things that meant that the intense heat that the airplanes produced when they hit the building were able to bring it down. That's a worthwhile story to to point out because the Empire State Building was also hit by an airplane during World War ii, which people might not know about because the Empire State Building is still there. Yeah. It was foggy and a, a World War II bomber crashed into it, but because it was structural steel, it basically bounced off.   I mean, it was, was not good for the airplane and not good for the pilots, but it, it survived. But we've learned cheaper ways to build buildings subsequent to that without structural steel. And that seems to be one of the factors that's responsible for the skyscraper wave that we have seen in, in recent years with Birds Dubai. Now the tallest building in the world for a while, Taipei 1 0 1 was, was the biggest building in the world. You have very tall buildings being built in, in many Chinese cities, especially Shanghai.   People are building big buildings, you know, and, and part of it is the strategic thing that we talked about a minute ago in the case of Taiwan. I mean, if you read about that building, it's clear that this was a matter of great national pride. And so the Chinese were building it to make Taipei obvious as an important business city and to make, to make Taiwan an an important place. The same sort of thing in places like Birds Dubai, I mean, what will be the financial center in the Middle East, it's, it's not obvious what it would be having big buildings, you know, they're hoping that if they build it, people will come.   Jesse (17m 10s): Hmm. Yeah. That's fascinating. Well it was good to, good to jump on that cuz that paper I saw that the title and I was like, well it's got economics, it's got skyscrapers. So just being from the commercial real estate side of things, I thought it'd be something listeners get some value out of. Well, I   William (17m 24s): Mean, so for, for your readers who are in the industry, I mean, it's a valid question for folks to ask. Do the economics justify such big buildings? I mean, in, in a lot of cases they do. People were convinced that the, say the Empire State Building did, of course the Great Depression happened begin after the Empire State Building was started and before it was finished. And so the Empire State Building was financially rather a disaster. It was called the Empty State building for about the first 10 years because they had so much trouble tenanting it up.   And so this is something that market participants should ask themselves. Does the market support a big building or is there something else that's going on with the building's size?   Jesse (18m 2s): Yeah, well we're certainly going through a, you know, a different version of that in terms of some of the construction or or over construction in some of our major cities. And just trying to see if the, if the lease ups will, will actually, if the absorption will be able to fill those buildings.   William (18m 18s): Right. I mean, we had buildings that were designed pre covid and that came on the market in 2022 and are partly responsible for the slow absorption that we've seen in recent years. I mean that's a, a very valid point. I mean, a lot of my other research has dealt with the fundamentals of why people want to concentrate spatially. Hmm. So, I mean, in Canada, a huge amount of our population is in the three cities of Vancouver, Montreal and, and Toronto. Yeah. In, in the case of the US when people use satellite data to look at how much of the country is actually occupied.   So you're looking at data that reflects down on the land and the satellite can tell you, is this dirt or is this concrete? The US is a big country, 2% of it is developed. I suspect the number would be even smaller in Canada. But I haven't seen somebody use satellites to do that. So we have this situation when Toronto and Vancouver at least are incredibly expensive when households say that affordability is the biggest issue that they face economically, not just real estate, it's the biggest issue that they face.   And yet everybody keeps piling into Toronto no matter how expensive it is. And thus prices continue to go up and up. I mean, I think one of the silver linings we may see from Covid is, is that through Covid we have learned that remote work is possible, can't do everything remotely that you can do in person, but you can do a lot. And that to the extent that Covid allows people to do things remotely, you know, either at different places in the same city or even in different in in, in different cities completely.   That may make it less essential for everybody to be down at bay in Adelaide, you know, paying the high rents that people pay down there and thus paying the high housing prices that you have to pay to be close to bay in Adelaide for your job as an investment banker, you know, this is a possibility to un unlock value for folks by freeing them from the Toronto housing price death spiral that people have been dealing with for so many years.   Jesse (20m 19s): Yeah. And we're, and we're dealing with, so we have 84 offices predominantly in, in North America, but we are a global company. And it's one thing where you are taking a b class or a suburban office and converting it to industrial or residential. It's, it's another thing to have these massive towers in cities and just trying to figure out how we repurpose the space, whether, you know, and   William (20m 39s): People are sure talking about that and there's, there's certainly fortunes to be made in people who feel how to figure out how to do it. Right. But I mean, what I'm hearing, and I'm, I'm nobody's architect, but what, what I'm hearing is the challenge of the seven and a half foot ceilings that you might see in an office in a residential setting are really problematic. And you can make a lot of internal changes in the building, but dealing with the floors is, is hard.   Jesse (21m 1s): Yeah, absolutely. And I think some of what you just mentioned here touched on, I noticed another paper on, on your, on your link on U F T or on Rotman's website was entrepreneurship in cities. And, and I imagine that kind of ties into what you're, what you're talking about here, it's that question of why do we congregate in these   William (21m 18s): Metropolis that, that there's something in downtown Toronto that people are willing to pay for. The market tells us that this is valuable. Both the housing market and the commercial real estate market say that Toronto's expensive people aren't throwing away the money for no reason they're paying it because it's a good, good value. As expensive as it might be. I mean, I like my job in Toronto, thus I'm willing to pay a whole bunch of money for a house here cuz I have to live here in or in order to be able to teach in, in, in the Rotmans school. So that, and a whole bunch of other things.   But, but ever since the dawn of the internet, some people have been arguing that distance is dead. And and I think that's wrong. Distance isn't dead. Maybe it smells funny, but it isn't dead yet. And in, in thinking about Covid, there was a New York Times op-ed that Jerry Seinfeld wrote titled New York City Is Not Dead. He wrote this in response to a friend of his, a fellow who owned a comedy club arguing that New York City was dead. And in this case, I'm happy to say that I agree with Jerry that that places like New York and Toronto are for sure challenged by, by things that happen associated with C O V D.   You know, two years ago what we were worried about is making each other sick. We are less worried about that as the disease has become less virulent as we and as we become vaccinated. But you know, hopefully, you know, COVID is killing 500 Americans a day. I don't know how many Canadians it's killed killing a day. Are we are much healthier than America is in that particular regard. But in, in addition to that being a challenge for folks, the working from home phenomenon is almost certainly here to stay.   It's just incredibly valuable for people to stay home and write reports for a day instead of fighting traffic to drive 45 that's from North York downtown, and then do the same thing again in the afternoon. So anyway, Jerry's friend wrote an article saying New York was dead. You know, that that that the value of being close to other people was, was really being challenged. Seinfeld said, no, it wasn't. We did some work using contemporaneous data. So the only time in my life I've used absolutely fresh data off the process and I I now have more patience with other professionals who use that, who use that kind of data.   It's just a lot harder to do stuff with that. And we looked at something called the commercial rent gradient. So the commercial rent gradient is telling you how much rents are declining as you, you're moving away from, from the city center. And so, so in Toronto, rents are highest in the city center. They go down as they move away, they rise in suburban sub-centers. We were not able to get good Toronto data to do these calculations here, but we did do it in cities that are like Toronto in the us like New York and Toronto and in and in cities like that, the gradient might be 6%.   So my, my co-authors were American, so they made me do this with miles, but the result was rents are declining by roughly 6% a mile as you move away from the center of activity in the city. If, if the big cities are dead, you know, given the long term nature of commercial leases, we should see people demanding large discounts when they're signing up in the downtown or, or close to the downtown, not paying the premiums they previously paid with the onset of covid and work from home and stuff like that.   What we found was a little of that, but not a lot of it. What we found was that the gradient went down by about a sixth. It went down from about 6% to about 5%, but it's still a gradient. People are still signing leases in 2021 to pay a big premium to be downtown, which is suggesting that, you know, as mu as much fun as Zoom can be and as productive as Zoom can be, it's not the same thing as sitting next to the other person and, and hearing them talk with their clients and realizing there's some synergy with what you're after and what they're after, which is the kind of thing that people are paying big dollars to locate downtown and getting.   So our answer is so far the downtown is less attractive, but is still attractive in, in core dominated cities like Toronto. Now can I tell you that it's gonna be that way five years from now? Of course I can't And and we do promise I'm saying this to someone who will broadcast it. So I guess this promise has some credibility. We promise that once, I mean our intention was once Covid is behind us, do this again. We are realizing that Covid will not be behind us and we'll have to pick another time to do it again and see what the evolution of this is.   But thus far we're still seeing people attracted to large cities. One scenario would be that this is a continuation of a phenomenon that Toronto saw in the late eighties and the nineties when back office stuff got moved out of Toronto to Mississauga and then later to places that are farther away than Mississauga. You know, people thought, oh no, the downtown's going away. No. What we were doing was we were keeping only the people downtown who really need to be there, the people who really need to be there to interact with other folks, you know, that that's what really matters and not the fact that the physical files are located in the building there.   Yeah. So this may be the same kind of thing where downtown Toronto just becomes more and more rarefied. Yeah. You know, that the investment bankers stay there, but maybe not the middle managers now that, that that is a social issue that we have to engage with, you know, if Toronto just becomes a city of investment bankers and Uber drivers. Yeah. You know, which is sort of the story that I'm telling you. Yeah. But at least that evidence and that theory points us in the direction of that being someplace we could end up.   Jesse (27m 4s): Yeah, no, for sure. And I think for the, you know, kind of the anecdotal side of things, what we see on the street is we see leases being signed. We see that there is a bit of a spread between the bid ask, but it, but it's not at the discount, which we, you know, I have clients they call me and Yeah, especially in the middle, at the beginning and in the middle of Covid, they're expecting these 20%, 30% discounts, you know, on pricing and for leasing and they just weren't happening. Landlords were providing inducements, whether it was free rent allowances. But even today, we, we still see these leases being signed and if anything, the trend that I've seen with most of the clients in the downtown areas, whether it's New York, Boston, Toronto, is that there's a, you know, the term flight to quality gets thrown around a lot.   We're seeing a lot more of that. And we're seeing, I agree completely, we're seeing even four years ago where a startup might want to be in a trendy area in, in the periphery of Toronto or of New York, and we're starting to see more of them have transit as a component. Not that it wasn't important before, but it's, we're seeing that almost pretty much at the top of the list for these, for these tenants.   William (28m 5s): Yep. Transit matters and, and the businesses are deciding they wanna be where the accountants and the business lawyers and the, the bankers are, you know, because they need to interact with them all the time. So I mean, the flight quality, I've heard noises in that direction also that what we would see would be, look, people have been talking about the retail apocalypse for years about online shopping, cannibalizing brick and mortar retailing. Now, did that kill the Eaton Center? It didn't because the Eaton center's in a market position where people are still willing to go there, but it's gonna kill someone.   I've got,   Jesse (28m 37s): I've gotta go there today. There's   William (28m 39s): Good for you. I'm glad one of my predictions ends up being true. Yeah. But, but credit old, old, old fashioned malls, they're getting torn down and, and getting replaced with something different. And I think we could imagine that being something that would happen too. I mean, just something that the audience should think about more generally is that the way the downtown has been for the last 10 years is different than it was 30 years ago, you know, when you had back offices there and it's way different than it was a hundred years ago when there was still a lot of manufacturing activity in the downtown, taking advantage of the proximity to the lake and to shipping and stuff like that.   And so the notion that the downtown should be frozen in Amber as of 2000 or something like that is crazy. It's never been that way. It's gonna change as business changes. And that's a good thing. I mean, that's, that's a way that the ability of Toronto to deliver good, good jobs and high value business outcomes is crucial for all of Canada. And, you know, anything that we can do to make Toronto a better competitor to New York, Boston, and San Francisco very much, much serves Canada's interests.   Jesse (29m 42s): Absolutely. So I wanna be mindful of the time here, will, but I do wanna get to your, your paper, your, I I'm not sure if it's your most recent paper, the one on Covid, but maybe you could give us the   William (29m 54s): Covid one was the one I just talked about a second   Jesse (29m 56s): Ago. Okay. So, so in, in, so what, what was the ultimate thesis of that? Was it this, this divide that we're seeing as, I would say even kind of an inequality of a potential outcome of having downtown cores be predominantly bankers? Or was that, was that the, the other paper,   William (30m 13s): The focus was on whether downtown would still be as important as it used to be. And we looked at, I, I left out some of the results. The, in addition to looking at core dominated cities like Toronto, we also looked at much more spread out car oriented cities like LA and Dallas and stuff like that. And the pattern in, in those places was different. In those cases, the gradient was already smaller. It was, you know, two or 2% rather than the 6%. And it didn't change a lot after Covid, you know, because la the downtown is, is different than the rest of the city.   But LA is not a downtown dominated city the way that Toronto is at all. And Covid didn't affect those. We looked at some parallel results that weren't as parametric, if you'll forgive my geekiness, the gradient puts an exponential functional form to get a percentage decline from the downtown. But look, I mean, how, how are we to think about sub-centers in North York and Mississauga and Markham and places like that in, in, in relative to having one downtown at Bay and Adelaide.   So we also looked at the premium that tenants pay to be in a high density environment. So that's a, a more flexible, functional form. We basically got the same results, which is the value of density does get smaller just like the gradient gets smaller. But it by no means goes all the way to zero. Cities aren't dead yet. Now the changes are just starting and things may change a lot. We may finally, eventually end up in a circumstance where distance really is dead the way people have been saying it would be since the early nineties.   But we're certainly not seeing it yet. And, you know, looking at real estate markets is one way to understand that, you know, because people put it, put their, you know, people can talk about distance being dead, but that's just talk, I mean a tenant paying, putting down a guarantee on, on real estate lease that's putting their money where their mouths are and how much money they're willing to pay for the downtown versus someplace extra or for a dense non downtown location like Mississauga Center of Mississauga relative to somewhere more peripheral.   You know, what we're seeing is people are still willing to pay premiums for those things. This could change, but it did not change in the early years of covid. And you're telling me that your sources say that it's not changing right now yet either. So I think that's where we are as of this minute. Will it change, you know, who knows?   Jesse (32m 39s): Yeah, it's a very, it's kind of a fascinating time in the sense that it's, it's hard to get data points when we're, you know, fingers crossed coming out of Covid, but potentially entering a recessionary environment. So it's, you know, we're, we're positive in one, but then we're drawn back in another. And I'd be re remiss if I didn't ask, if I was speaking to economists and didn't ask a little bit about the kind of macroeconomic environment.   William (33m 2s): I'm not a macro economist, so I'll probably avoid, but by all means you can ask.   Jesse (33m 6s): But, but yeah, I mean, how do you see this? Or if you do at all as a, as a comparison to oh eight or oh one or the early nineties and, and, you know, we, we come out of something that was extraordinary, the pandemic, but now we're entering inflation numbers that we haven't seen in, in years.   William (33m 26s): I, I think it, it, it is absolutely to be worried about because inflation, as, as economists who know more about the stuff than I do have always said it, it reduces the information, content and prices reduces the incentives that price systems have. So it just makes capitalism work less well than it would have previously. So it's certainly a risk. I will say that the government's decision to stimulate the economy during covid kept us from having a recession. I, I mean, I don't know if you recall, but in May of 2020, the C M H C who know a lot about housing more, more than I know about housing, they, their projection said that they predicted housing prices would fall.   I think the number was 18% in, in the preferred model that they offered. Now, I didn't have a model, but that was my inclination also, and also my inclination of the colleagues that, you know, housing is a normal good. People buy more of it when they're rich and, and there, there it seemed closing people out of their workplaces is surely recessionary. So I I I told my neighbor who I like and respect, you know, I I think you should, if you're thinking about selling your house the next few years are, are problematic. I, I was wrong.   I mean, the PR prices went up by more than 30% in Toronto. Quality adjusted during that, you know, in, in part because the government tried to keep people from being killed. But now they've spent huge amounts of money and they can't spend like that forever. And economies don't stay in boom, forever, ever either. So there, you know, there there is uncertainty and, and there is risk.   Jesse (34m 60s): Yeah. Well, I guess, we'll nobody has a crystal ball here for this next year.   William (35m 4s): Especially not Microeconomists and, and people who spent a lot of their careers doing theorists doing   Jesse (35m 9s): Theater. No, I, I, I wouldn't I once sell yourself short. I feel like a lot of the insights come from, from the micro and, and get extrapolated. Well,   William (35m 16s): I, I, unlike micro, I just believe in, I mean, economist, I believe in the division of labor and there are other people who know more about macro than I do.   Jesse (35m 23s): Yeah. So Will, we're, we're gonna wrap up here. What I'd like to do is, first of all, for those that want to kind of learn more on, you know, urban, urban economics, urban planning seems to be a, a passion of yours. But just generally speaking, are there books or resources that you've used in the past that you think would be good recommendations for listeners if this is something they're interested   William (35m 43s): In? Yeah, there, there are a couple of them. And, and I'm, I'm giving you civilian friendly books Okay. That you could read to pass the time on an airplane and not, not a boring textbook. The two examples that come to mind immediately are a book called Triumph of the City by a guy at Harvard called Ed Glazer and another book called New Economic Geography by a guy at Berkeley called Enrico Moretti. They are both lucid explanations of the kinds of forces that we've been talking about. Now both of them are a little less real estate than our discussion has been, but they are about forces that feed into real estate markets.   I mean, someone who's a market participant has to be asking themselves why are people paying the premiums for the downtown? Will they continue to pay the premiums from the downtown? And, and if not, how can I trade on that perce perception? I mean, because there are clearly gonna be places where people who get priced out by Toronto go and those real estate markets are gon are, are, are going to be booms. I mean, I don't think people are gonna go to Vancouver to be cheap, although maybe they will go to Vancouver for warmer winter weather.   A question that I think is, is unsettled as of this moment is, do people who get priced out of Toronto go to someplace close to Toronto like Hamilton? You know, so you can drive in for a Wednesday meeting, but it's cheaper than Toronto is, or do you go somewhere or do you go to someplace like Montreal that is farther but is cheap for a big city? Or do you think about somewhere that's even farther still and, and, and cheaper still like Halifax. I mean the Maritimes are wonderful place a whole lot cheaper than Toronto.   And if a huge amount of your work is Zoom meetings, you know, for some people that location is, is gonna be the more economical place to   Jesse (37m 25s): Be. Yeah, that's, that's interesting. So I've, I've read Ed Glazer's book, I've, I have not read the New Economic Geography. So that definitely put on the reading list for those. Just interested in, in kind of your research will or the Rotman program in general, what, what's the best place to send? And we'll put a link in the show notes.   William (37m 46s): I mean, look, people can email me and I will either respond or not, depending on how many thousands of emails that I get. I mean, for admission to the programs, you know, we are recruiting students every year. I think our, our MBA program is fantastic. We have programs that work at the full-time level and get done faster, but we also have part-time programs that get done that, that work better for professionals. And I actually think there's a, the case for the part-time programs have become stronger in recent years because there's gonna be a lot more times when somebody can meet a professor in office hours on Zoom rather than having to schlep up to the Rotman school af after work.   But, but also we, we have these public events and googling Rotman events. I, I don't know what the le the link would be, but Googling Rotman events is gonna put you in touch with real estate things. But a lot of other things would be useful and we, we try to be good citizens. We're physically close to the center of business in Canada. It's what five subway stops or so to get up here. You know, we want people in the building and now that the building is open, I think people would find it a good use of their time to show up for some of the things that happen here.   I would also give a shout out to the New School of Cities that was formed separately of us at the University of Toronto. This attempts to include the stuff from my world on econ and real estate, but also architects and planning and things like that that also relate to cities. It is the first of its kind in the world, has a fantastic director and I think we'll do very cool things in time.   Jesse (39m 21s): My guest today has been Will Strange, will, thanks for being part of Working Capital.   William (39m 25s): Thank you very much.   Jesse (39m 36s): You so much for listening to Working Capital, the Real Estate podcast. I'm your host, Jesse for Galley. If you like the episode, head on to iTunes and leave us a five star review and share on social media. It really helps us out. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Instagram. Jesse for galley, F R A G A L E. Have a good one. Take care.

The monthly employment data is out today, where it's expected that U.S. job and wage growth was solid in December, though rising interest rates could slow momentum this year. Lightcast's Rucha Vankudre breaks down the numbers. Plus, the ongoing standoff within the Republican party over Kevin McCarthy's bid to become House Speaker continues. Raymond James' Ed Mills gives the latest. And, stock futures are mixed as the Fed signals that they may not be done with their campaign to tame inflation. Palisade Capital Management's Dan Veru and Rose Advisors as Hightower's Patrick Fruzzetti explain how to play the markets.

It's been a crazy ride for oil prices this year, which spiked in February when Russia invaded Ukraine, and again in June. CIBC Private Wealth's Rebecca Bain dives into the energy complex. Plus, as investors look to the employment landscape for insight on the state of the economy, companies weigh whether to hire or fire in 2023. ZipRecruiter's Julia Pollak breaks down her key predictions for jobs next year. And, what's on the agenda for Congress in the coming weeks? Raymond James' Ed Mills weighs in.

Americans are preparing to head to the polls to cast their ballots for the midterm elections in what's expected to be a close contest. Raymond James' Ed Mills explains what investors need to watch. Plus, several big tech companies have announced layoffs or hiring freezes in recent weeks. Fast Company's Stephanie Mehta breaks down the implications on the sector. And, word on Wall Street is that the Fed will not be curbing its efforts to tame inflation any time soon. Zor Capital's Joseph Fahmy and Howard Capital Management's Vance Howard discuss what this means for the markets.

Because of events that occur around the world there are always reasons that investors can find not to invest. Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills joins host Chris Cooksey to help breakdown our geopolitical world and how it may effect markets, including: 1. US midterm scenarios 2. 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Xi/ Hu Jintao 3. Europe (Ukraine/Russia) and new UK PM (Rishi Sunak) 4. Iran protest – does it spread? Please subscribe, rate and review.

Institutions and non-profits across the country are providing new kinds of services and redesigning policies and practices to support more adults in higher education. In part 2, we talk with Malik Brown and Sena Owereko from Graduate Philadelphia, and from Dr. Ed Mills and Kaley Martin at Sacramento State University about how they are changing outcomes for adult learners.

President Biden is expected to sign the Inflation Reduction Act this week even though many non-partisan analyses suggest it won't do anything to actually reduce inflation. Raymond James analyst Ed Mills gives his thoughts on the bill. Plus, what does the Inflation bill mean for renewable energy? Pickering Energy Partners CIO Dan Pickering and CNBC's Michael Wayland weigh in. And, a growing number of investors are sounding optimistic that stocks may have found a bottom from bear market lows. Silvercrest Asset Management's Robert Teeter and Vertias Financial Group's Greg Branch discuss the trading day ahead.

David Smith, Washington DC bureau chief at the Guardian discusses British Prime Minister Boris Johnson surviving a no-confidence vote. Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst and Managing Director at Raymond James discusses the congressional agenda and prospects for passing gun safety legislation. Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney discusses Tuesday's California primary races, and Bloomberg Politics Contributors Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Rick Davis discuss the Pennsylvania Senate race, what congress will achieve on gun control measures and what to expect at the Jan 6th committee public hearing this week.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of the Mic'd Up Students, Nahom and Espi are joined by the VP for Student Affairs, Dr. Ed Mills! Together, they discuss how music has changed since the early 80s. Topics include MTV, concerts, and direct comparisons of modern music!

Today is Earth Day, and what better way to celebrate it than reduce the use of plastics in products like toys? James Zahn of The Toy Insider joins us today to talk about the toy industry's move to sustainable materials, even amid rising manufacturing costs and delays. Plus, a Florida bill to revoke Disney World's designation as a special tax district is moving forward. Former Walt Disney Resort Executive Vice President Lee Cockerell gives his take on as the current situation. And, Congress is back to work with a full agenda, at the top of which is reviving President Biden's Build Back Better plan. Ed Mills of Raymond James gives us the details.

Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Joe Mathieu delivers insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. Guests: Congressman Jason Smith of Missouri, Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst and Managing Director at Raymond James, Joe Crowley, former New York Congressman and Democratic Caucus Chair and Bloomberg politics contributor Rick Davis. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

We take a look at all aspects of the latest in Ukraine, as fighting reaches its 16th day. We speak with Molly Hunter on the ground in Lviv, as well as Ed Mills of Raymond James. Plus, Rivian shares are under pressure this morning as the company revealed supply chain concerns in its quarterly results announcement. Phil Lebeau has some color on what the company said about manufacturing. And Brian brings you the top 5 stocks seeing the most insider buying this week.

Guests: Bill Faries, Head of Bloomberg's National Security team, Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst and Managing Director at Raymond James and Bloomberg Politics Contributors Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Rick Davis. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Chief Economist Scott Brown and Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills join Advantaged Investor host Chris Cooksey to discuss the economy and markets. In light of the situation in Ukraine, Scott provides macro economy overview of global growth, central bank policy expectations, commodities and inflation. Ed Mills also joins the podcast to provide an overview of the current situation in Russian/Ukraine; reviews recent developments; discusses ways the crisis could play out, as well as other potential geopolitical events that are on the radar for the remainder of the year (e.g. China, US mid-terms, etc.)

Chief Economist Scott Brown and Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills join Advantaged Investor host Chris Cooksey to discuss the economy and markets. In light of the situation in Ukraine, Scott provides macro economy overview of global growth, central bank policy expectations, commodities and inflation. Ed Mills also joins the podcast to provide an overview of the current situation in Russian/Ukraine; reviews recent developments; discusses ways the crisis could play out, as well as other potential geopolitical events that are on the radar for the remainder of the year (e.g. China, US mid-terms, etc.)

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/addendum-to-luvox-post   In my post yesterday, I quoted a Vox article describing work by Dr. Ed Mills and others to get the FDA to approve Luvox for COVID. As of that point, the FDA didn't know how to process an application without a sponsoring drug company: [Professor Ed] Mills, who thinks that fluvoxamine and budesonide are both appropriate to prescribe to patients sick with Covid-19, compares public messaging on fluvoxamine to communications about Merck's drug molnupiravir. The evidence for molnupiravir is in many ways weaker than the evidence for fluvoxamine, but molnupiravir was produced by a major pharmaceutical company that can shepherd it through the process of becoming a recommended drug. On a call last week, Mills said, the FDA told him “they don't know how to deal with submissions where there isn't someone to be responsible for it.” But it looks like just as I published, he and his colleagues found a way around the problem:

More countries in Europe are imposing restrictions or lockdowns due to the spread of the new omicron variant. Our own Annette Weisbach joins from Germany with the latest, and we speak with Dr. Uché Blackstock about the latest in the U.S. Plus, Ed Mills of Raymond James joins to discuss whether the Build Back Better bill is really dead, and what its next steps could be. And NAREIT's Calvin Schnure joins with a real estate and office space outlook for 2022.

In this episode, the Mic'd Up Crew chat with Dr. Ed Mills, VP of Student Affairs at Sacramento State!

Ed Mills, a professor of health sciences at McMaster University, and study's lead author See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Congress reporter Billy House, Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst and Managing Director at Raymond James, Kristin Smith, Executive Director of the Blockchain Association and Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Ed Mills of Raymond James on the odds of Congress reaching a deal to fund the government and raise the debt limit, and the potential fallout from failure or inaction. Plus, top internet analyst Mark Mahaney helps us make sense of the tech-led market selloff, and whether investors should wait for the dust to settle to get back in. And, Go Big Or Go Home: Cate Faddis of Grace Capital lays out her best ideas for Q4, including a pair of cybersecurity plays.

MarketWatch's DC bureau chief Robert Schroeder and Raymond James' Washington policy analyst Ed Mills discuss what's next for the $3.5 trillion budget bill being pushed by congressional Democrats and President Joe Biden, as well the path forward for a bipartisan infrastructure package.

From the District 6 NAEP event in Early September, Ed and Dustin discuss the University of Colorado's approach to scoping and executing on procurement transformation projects, and the ability to incorporate and utilize partners like Civic Initiatives to augment the internal team and accelerate certain key outcomes.

This episode introduces an incredible faculty member and mentor to many, Dr. Ed Mills. He shares an incredible edu-origin story and a fantastic look into the doctoral program. Catch this episode and the entire series at csuscohort12.com. 

Raymond James' Ed Mills discusses what investors need to see and hear from President Biden's overseas trip, especially from his sitdown meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin. Plus, the malls are packed again, so what will be the next big driver for the retail sector? Industry watcher Jan Kniffen weighs in. And, a top freight specialist talks about the growing crisis over the lack of available shipping containers around the world, and how Home Depot is taking matters into its own hands.

Paul Sheard of the Harvard Kennedy School discusses the long-term economic and financial implications of the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery. Plus, Ed Mills of Raymond James talks about the chances President Biden will get support from across the aisle for his spending plans. And, a random & interesting stat on how many more Americans are now hitting the roads to go just about anywhere.

In this episode, we explore the joys of being a black father. We talk about some of the struggles of being father and how we can overcome them. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/allthingsblack/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/allthingsblack/support

In this episode, we explore the joys of being a black father. We talk about some of the struggles of being father and how we can overcome them. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/allthingsblack/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/allthingsblack/support

Guests: Jeanne Zaino, Iona College professor and Bloomberg politics contributor, Michael Steele, Partner at Hamilton Place Strategies, Tom Keene, host of Bloomberg Surveillance, Rep. Brendan Boyle, a Democrat representing Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional district, Jack Fitzpatrick, Bloomberg Government reporter, Billy House, Bloomberg News Congressional Reporter, Ari Natter, Bloomberg News Energy and Enviroment Reporter, Ed Mills, Managing Director of Washington Policy and Raymond James, and Craig Gordon, Bloomberg Washington Bureau Chief.

Guests: Jeanne Zaino, Iona College professor and Bloomberg politics contributor, Michael Steele, Partner at Hamilton Place Strategies, Tom Keene, host of Bloomberg Surveillance, Rep. Brendan Boyle, a Democrat representing Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional district, Jack Fitzpatrick, Bloomberg Government reporter, Billy House, Bloomberg News Congressional Reporter, Ari Natter, Bloomberg News Energy and Enviroment Reporter, Ed Mills, Managing Director of Washington Policy and Raymond James, and Craig Gordon, Bloomberg Washington Bureau Chief.

Guests: Laura Davison, Bloomberg Tax and Congress reporter, Ed Mills, Managing Director of Washington Policy at Raymond James, John Sitilides, Geopolitical strategist at Trilogy Advisors and diplomacy consultant to the State Department, Scott Bolden, Democratic strategist, former D.C. Democratic Party Chairman and attorney, Mike Rogers, former Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and Rep. Fred Upton, a Republican representing Michigan's 6th congressional district.

Guests: Laura Davison, Bloomberg Tax and Congress reporter, Ed Mills, Managing Director of Washington Policy at Raymond James, John Sitilides, Geopolitical strategist at Trilogy Advisors and diplomacy consultant to the State Department, Scott Bolden, Democratic strategist, former D.C. Democratic Party Chairman and attorney, Mike Rogers, former Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and Rep. Fred Upton, a Republican representing Michigan's 6th congressional district.

Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, says we should be more afraid of stagflation than we should be about low rates. Michael Holland, Holland and Company Chairman, says he can't justify buying a great deal of fixed income right now. Leslie McClure, Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Chair, says we have to continue to be cautious even after we vaccinate a large portion of the population. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, discusses how politics continue to get in the way of a stimulus deal in Washington. Alex Webb, Bloomberg Opinion Tech Columnist, discusses Bob Dylan's decision to sell his songwriting catalog. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, says we should be more afraid of stagflation than we should be about low rates. Michael Holland, Holland and Company Chairman, says he can't justify buying a great deal of fixed income right now. Leslie McClure, Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Chair, says we have to continue to be cautious even after we vaccinate a large portion of the population. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, discusses how politics continue to get in the way of a stimulus deal in Washington. Alex Webb, Bloomberg Opinion Tech Columnist, discusses Bob Dylan's decision to sell his songwriting catalog.

Protestors brought and left a coffin filled with roses and some naloxone kits to Mayor Fred Eisenberger's house. Was this a thinly veiled threat of violence or merely a memorial to those lost to drug overdoses and homelessness? Guest: Larry Di Ianni, Host & Community Producer, Cable 14 & Former Hamilton Mayor - There is some understanding that vaccines take time to develop, approve and subsequently distribute. Despite this, we've seen the process get sped up on all fronts which has raised some questions as to whether we should be concerned with the COVID-19 vaccines. Have they simply been pushed to the front of the bureaucratic line or are these vaccines half-baked? Guest: Dr. Ed Mills, Health Researcher and Associate Professor at McMaster University - It wasn't too long ago that the NBA season came to a close and it sounds like teams are continuing the theme of keeping things short. The Toronto Raptors are said to be getting ready for training camp for the next season. Is this too much, too fast or are you ready for basketball to come back? Guest: Bubba O'Neil, Sports Anchor, CHCH-TV See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Break out your poodle skirts and blue suede shoes folks! This is the first part of our concurrent high school sweethearts stories taking place in 1955. Take a drive to the bluffs with Robert and Pauleen who are just two kids growin' up in the Pod of :Heart: land. Patreon.com/allportsopen Patreon.com/podoflove Theme song by Joe Marston Additional music: Lucky Man by Red Revision Bip Bop Baby by The Best Ofs I Got Love by Ed Mills

Break out your poodle skirts and blue suede shoes folks! This is the first part of our concurrent high school sweethearts stories taking place in 1955. Take a drive to the bluffs with Robert and Pauleen who are just two kids growin' up in the Pod of :Heart: land. Patreon.com/allportsopen Patreon.com/podoflove Theme song by Joe Marston Additional music: Lucky Man by Red Revision Bip Bop Baby by The Best Ofs I Got Love by Ed Mills

Ed Mills, a longtime bank analyst for Raymond James, talks about who President-elect Joe Biden will appoint to the top regulatory positions at the CFPB and OCC, and how that will impact those agencies and bank regulatory policymaking overall. Plus, Mills plays a “lightning round” on how the election changes the prospects for housing finance reform, postal banking, CRA reform and much more.

Guests: Former UN Ambassador Samantha Power, Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst and Managing Director at Raymond James, Mattie Duppler, Founder of Forward Strategies, and Senior Fellow at the National Taxpayers Union, Richard Fowler, Nationally Syndicated Radio Show Host and Fox News Contributor, and former Governor of Arizona, Jan Brewer.

Guests: Former UN Ambassador Samantha Power, Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst and Managing Director at Raymond James, Mattie Duppler, Founder of Forward Strategies, and Senior Fellow at the National Taxpayers Union, Richard Fowler, Nationally Syndicated Radio Show Host and Fox News Contributor, and former Governor of Arizona, Jan Brewer.

Miranda Jewess joins the Chris's in tonights fantastic Friday night chat show. If you ever wanted to know the ins and outs of traditional book publishing, then this great guest gives us insights we would never know without this interview. If you have publishing in mind then this show is a must. Miranda is fun, relaxes and engaging. Our beer sponsor tonight is the awesome @JBLexington and her book Forever Eve! Please check out her book and website. Our end of the show song tonight is perfect to kick off your Friday night. It is I GOT LOVE by ED MILLS. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/writingcommunitychatshow/support

Check out The Quirk Chronicles (Ep 15) Nay To Funny Business & (Ep 14) The Lady In Green. Listen to Desire/Autumn Simmons & Lamar/David Bazemore!!! Music from Spring Gang feat. Ed Mills, XXXTentacion/Jahseh Dwayne Onfroy and Danny Baylor. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/autumn-simmons/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/autumn-simmons/support

Ed Mills from the University of Colorado talks past and future of procurement and purchasing and baking bread during quarantine. Find Ed: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edmills/ Find PF: https://procurementfoundry.com/ https://twitter.com/procurefoundry https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMszO5K-A245ajCdJSCNEVQ https://www.facebook.com/procurementfoundry/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/procurement-foundry/about/

Let's go on a journey... Tonight I want to start to think about Life After Lockdown. As we prepare for the reintegration to the Brave New World - Ho are you preparing your mindset Are you choosing Fear or Love? Defining who we are by what we take in audibly, visually, emotionally, sensory and intuitively How we can define others by the same. Key words – Preparation, Fear, Love, Be You, Happiness, Table for 8 Epidemic Sound song titles - This week Playlist 1. Eye of the Newscaster (After Intro) 2 Sunkissed 3. Why don't you come over? 4. Do me like that - Ed Mills 5. We can go so far

#44 Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. The content on this podcast and YouTube videos are for educational purposes only and merely cite our own personal opinions.  In order to make the best financial decision that suits your own needs, you must conduct your own research and seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor if necessary.  Know that all investments involve some form of risk and there is no guarantee that you will be successful in making, saving, or investing money; nor is there any guarantee that you won't experience any loss when investing.   Always remember to make smart decisions and do your own research! Interview with Ed Mills The Millionaire Educator. Ed is a huge inspiration to me personally as well as to many others interested in Financial Independence and within the FIRE community. Ed Mills shows the path he as a teacher and his family have taken to take care of business and their future using various retirement saving pots like the 401K and Roth IRA and 457B Plan. Ed's advice is to avoid debt, become a hard core saver and work a plan, even if it's not perfect just getting started can leads to great results in the long term. The front loading strategy. Ed also discusses the tax advantages of saving in Pre-Retirement accounts. Ed's courage and willingness to move jobs and location to break service and move money to a better platform with lower costs. Geoarbitrage advantages. Also Ed has a passion for travel particularly Mexico and South America. As well as to be careful of the plan fee's. Types of investments.  Be sure to check out Ed's Website: https://www.millionaireeducator.com Twitter: @Ed_Mills_ ----   Podcast:   https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/superb-diamond-range/id930684983?mt=2     https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cDovL3N1cGVyYmRpYW1vbmRyYW5nZS5saWJzeW4uY29tL3Jzcw     https://tunein.com/podcasts/Educational/Superb-Diamond-Range-p677627/     https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/libsyn-9/superb-diamond-range   Follow on:   https://twitter.com/superbdiamondra     https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCztKXSrR8fC4CbVVJ9aC8_w   Contact the show:   superbdiamondrange@gmail.com

What A Feeling (Frank Star Short Remix Radio Edit) 03:23 The Terri Green Project Life To Evolve (Jason Eli Remix - Radio Edit) 03:10 Marvel & Eli feat. Rebecca Scales Leave Me Behind 03:47 Raquel Rodriguez, DUX Feels So Good To Be Loved (feat. Mr. Talkbox) 03:23 Warryn Campbell & Mary Mary Vibrations (Vitamin D's New Jack Swing Remix) 03:56 Tuxedo Say Yes (MetLife Remix) (Radio Edit) 03:12 Cornell C.C. Carter Wear My Shoes 03:43 Temu Priestly (Gossamer Tunic) (feat. Buzzy Lee) 02:58 Sherman's Showcase All For You (feat. Maysa) 05:12 Incognito Rock Me Baby 03:36 Lamar Brace Calmer (For DJ's Only Mix) 04:04 Kejam feat. Lisa Taylor Let's Stay In Love 04:41 Qupid One Life 04:30 Regi Myrix presents Hil St. Soul Calling 03:36 Quin You & Me 03:28 Amerigo Gazaway & Xiomara Say Yeah 03:03 Meachie Day Out Tonight 03:59 Meachie Day No Matter What 03:31 Frank McComb Trying And Trying 02:53 Reggie Boone West Coast Love 03:35 Emotional Oranges I've Been Loving You 03:46 Rich Wright Celebrate (feat. Crystal Nicole & Tedashii) 03:51 Montell Jordan Fantasy 04:22 MAR-K Shiver (Original Mix) 05:47 Mr. Moon feat. Mey Seasons Change 04:32 JazzyD Cross My Mind 03:47 Joe Hertz & Sophie Faith I Won't Tell 03:55 Shirley Jones Lovin' On You (feat. Anesha Birchett Moody) 03:30 Jeffrey Dennis More Than Just A Fling (feat. Ed Mills) 03:13 Spring Gang Drop It Low (For Jesus) 01:45 Sherman's Showcase Stuck In My Head 03:38 Shawndella Ain't No Way 05:15 K.B. The Messenger Time Loop (feat. Ne-Yo) 05:44 Sherman's Showcase Flowers 05:05 30/70 Something In Common 04:55 Teddy B & Miracle Thomas Working! (Gedi Edit) 04:53 Warryn Campbell & My Block Family Modern Superwoman 04:32 The Soul Motivators All You Need (feat. Quavo & Bluff City) 04:30 Jacquees Can't Let Go 04:19 Amerigo Gazaway & Xiomara This Ever Changing World (Nigel Lowis 2020 Disco Mix - Radio Edit) 04:16 Peter Symphorien Sweetness 04:12 Motaz Running 04:08 The Jous Band Waiting For You 04:08 Rachel Camille First Date 04:03 Montell Jordan Higher 04:03 Angel-Monique I'm The One 04:01 Elijah "SILKY E" Sterling Put Me On (Remix) 03:56 Bey Bright Big Girls (Do What You Do) 03:55 Tara Sabree Those Who Wait 03:55 Qupid Dlf 03:54 Tre Jones Whatever You Like 03:49 Kibwe Dorsey Throwback 03:44 Montell Jordan More 03:37 Sivill Williams Be Patient 03:37 Brittany Glodean Leave Your Problems On The Dance Floor 03:34 Isaac J. Risk It All (feat. Tory Lanez) 03:27 Jacquees Grind On Me 03:25 Lamar Brace Looking Through The Window 03:22 Jason Anthoney Wright Don't Waste My Time 03:21 Usher & Ella Maii So Free 03:14 Keni Myles She's Got The Juice 02:43 Geno Wesley

19–11-19 Sexy & Smooth #176 on @floradiouk @GroundBreakln @Behindagroove :-1. Usher ft Ella Mai - Don’t Waste My Time2. Diamonique Jackson - Give Me a Sign 3. Frank McComb - No Matter What 4. Sam Wills - Talk In The Morning 5. FKAjazz, Natalie Oliveri - Feeling Felt 6. Blanche J - You Are the One (feat. Tice) 7. Song - And I 8. Sounds Like FRANCO - How to Get in Your Love 9. Kimberly Gunn - Clap for Me 10. Najee - Better (feat. Kenny Lattimore) 11. Shani Shanell - Good Times 12. Faye Moffett - Circles 13. Aja Valle` - Mixed Emotions 14. Shameia Crawford - Get Back To Love 15. nine to five feat. Ruby Francis - Shady Shoes (Original Mix) 16. Jae Franklin - Music & Love 17. Hamzaa - Home 18. Lauren Cofie - What I Need 19. Malachiae - Try To Love 20. Rocwell Hallman - Never Thought I'd Find Love 21. Marjane' - I Choose You 22. G Wyll - Holla Back 23. Bilal & Raphael Saadiq - Soul Sista (Remix / From "Queen & Slim: The Soundtrack") 24. Jacobi - Intimate Creation 25. Daun Yael - Blewe 26. Hennyboiz - More [Explicit] 27. Amina Buddafly - Just Dreamin (Bonus Track) 28. Toni Hill - Shoo Bee 29. Amerigo Gazaway & Xiomara - Can't Let Go 30. The Keys Project - Where Did We Go Wrong (feat. Jai) 31. Jermaine Robbins - Lay You Down32. Jocelyn Buchanan - Turning the Page 33. Alaina Renae - Friends 34. Jacquees - Round II 35. Bluff City - Me36. Stokley - She... 37. Spring Gang - More Than Just a Fling (feat. Ed Mills)

Ed Mills - Washington Policy Analyst, Managing Director at Raymond James. Topics: Washington D.C., Recency Bias, Political Noise, Policy Trends, Medicare, Financial Regulation, Data Regulation, Federal Reserve

Take away: Building wealth is easy but it takes time.   Action step: Put your financial numbers on the fridge so you constantly seem them.    Money Learnings: School never taught Ed about money. His family taught him the value of hard work, but he didn't learn about money skills.   bio:“Ed Mills” blogs at the Millionaire Educator (hyperlink here?), a website dedicated to teaching educators how to build wealth on a teacher’s salary via frugal living, hardcore saving, and prudent investing.  From 2002 to 2016 both he and his wife worked as public school teachers in Georgia. During that time they enjoyed a seemingly normal middle-class lifestyle, had an incredible son, and grew their net worth from $100k to $1 million.  The Mills family spent the 2017-18 school year in Merida, Mexico where they studied Spanish, worked out daily, and simply enjoyed life.   Highlights from this episode:Link  www.millionaireeducator.com https://www.facebook.com/MillionaireEducator/ https://twitter.com/Ed_Mills_ Richer Soul Life Beyond Money. You got rich, now what? Let's talk about your journey to more a purposeful, intentional, amazing life. Where are you going to go and how are you going to get there? Let's figure that out together. At the core is the financial well being to be able to do what you want, when you want, how you want. It's about personal freedom! Thanks for listening! If you like the show please leave a review on iTunes: http://bit.do/richersoul https://www.facebook.com/richersoul http://richersoul.com/ rocky@richersoul.com Music: https://www.bensound.com Any financial advice is for educational purposes only and you should consult with an expert for your specific needs.

On their early 30s, Ed Mills and his wife had $45,000 in student debt and both of their cars were finished. Along with their marriage, they added a new member to their family, their son. Ed Mills recounts how he went from -$45,000 to over $1,000,000

051R | In this podcast we do a recap of episode 51 with Mrs Money Monster discussing the importance of getting past limiting beliefs as well as how to use the community to your benefit and take action in pursuing FI. In Today’s Podcast we cover: Recap of Monday’s episode with Mrs Money Monster. The importance of getting past those limiting beliefs Why we should learn to embrace the growth mindset, to always be willing to learn The value of having mentors Why FI is acknowledging that I am more than the sum of my stuff Having more control over your finances means making retirement optional Choose FI local groups are growing, making the Camp FI and FI Festival possible Voicemail from Lori about educational IRAs answered by Ed Mills from the Millionaire Educator Voicemail from Michelle about her journey to FI. All about taking action and keep working towards your goals. Matthew’s post from the Facebook Choose FI group: how one person changed his life by introducing him to FI Voicemail from Haidi about her preparing for retirement. By choosing to be half retired she will always continue learning. How to work out the wonderful problem of having so much choice when it comes to financial freedom. Voicemail from Lance after attending Alan’s Popup Business School and who wants to give back to the community. Teaser of Monday’s episode: Challenging our beliefs iTunes review and Book Giveaway Links from the show: The Choose FI T-shirts Our Facebook Group All our Choose FI groups About the FI Festival Ed Mills from The Millionaire Educator Radical Personal Finance Episode 106: A Comprehensive Guide to the Ultimate Education Account House Hacking with Coach Carson Bright Future Scholarship Episode 30 with Alan: Starting a business without going into debt Contribute to our show by sending us an email

027R | In today's podcast we highlight our takeaways from Episode 27 with Jay from Slowly Sipping Coffee, plus we discuss the 'Mount Rushmore' of FI and help debunk a lot of the misinformation surrounding the value of the mortgage interest deduction. In Today’s Podcast we cover: The Friday Roundup bringing in many aspects of our audience and community plus our thoughts on the Episode 27 with Jay from Slowly Sipping Coffee How to join the Choose FI Facebook group Looking at the great team of Mr. and Mrs. Slowly Sipping Coffee and how they gained flexibility and freedom How they made a game out of personal finance and that enabled them to save big on their credit card bills Just by being more conscious of their spending allowed them to save over 50% of their discretionary spending How ‘grazing’ by shopping at stores like Target can help fuel lifestyle inflation It’s important how we spend our time. Batch processing with intentionality is a way to fix our inefficient use of time How Jonathan can come up with a system in his life to find a work/life balance between the ChooseFI site and podcast and his ‘real’ life Multitasking is not a real thing What does your life look like post-FI? And when do you start thinking about that life? The Mount Rushmore of Financial Independence: Who do we put on that list? Who would you as the community put on the Mount Rushmore of FI? What do you want to do with your time when you reach FI? Fully Funded Lifestyle Change as an alternative to “retirement for the sake of quitting work” Risk tolerance and cFiresim Article submitted by Luis on CNNMoney on a couple who achieved FI Hot Seat conversation on the Facebook group The power to spread the message beyond of FI beyond this community Message from Austin who is a former student of the Millionaire Educator Voicemail from Ed Mills from the Millionaire Educator on ways to get your children involved in saving money Voicemail from Juan from Finance Clever about the value (or lack thereof) of the mortgage interest deduction and only getting value from it if your itemized deductions are above the standard deduction Brad’s example of the benefit of itemized deductions Feedback from the audience from Grumpus Maximus about retirement calculators and one in particular from Darrow Kirkpatrick at CanIRetireYet.com Voicemail from Kris with incredible feedback about the action she took after hearing Noah’s voicemail about removing escrow accounts Voicemail from Steve about the importance of umbrella insurance policies plus feedback from Tiffany about the same More information from Ken about ESPPs and call options 

In episode 18, Ed Mills, a.k.a. "The Millionaire Educator" described how he and his teacher wife socked away more than $100,000 in 2015. In this episode, Ed describes how he and his family did what many dream of doing.  Millionaire Educator Accessing money prior to age 59 1/2 Roth conversion 403(b)wise Meridian Wealth Management   

Dan and Scott talk with Ed Mills a.k.a. The Millionaire Educator. Ed and his wife, who is also a teacher, saved $104,000 in 2015. Not only are he and his wife hard-core savers, they are also willing to move from one school district to another to gain access to better 403(b) investment choices, or to trigger the separation from service provision that allows them to move their 403(b) assets to lower cost investments. Beer (and Wine) Ed drinks a red "Black Box" cabernet wine. Scott drinks a Chain Breaker White IPA from Deschutes Brewery of Bend, Oregon. Dan drinks an Adobe Igloo, a winter style brown ale by Santa Fe Brewing Company of Santa Fe, New Mexico.

Wired Educator host, Kelly Croy, interviews the "Millionaire Educator" Ed Mills from www.millionaireeducator .com. Ed is a high school Spanish teacher in Georgia where he lives with his wife and fourth grade son. Ed blogs about financial independence and wealth building from a teacher's perspective. He has amassed an incredible personal wealth by applying his five pillars of financial independence. Ed's message and website is to help educators live a better lifestyle by applying some basic but important rules of finances. His fortune has been built not by speaking engagements and endorsements, but by applying some basic rules that you will learn in this podcast. (Sometimes Ed doesn't even work full time.) Mentioned in this podcast: www.millionaireeducator.comwww.Vanguard.comwww.403bWise.com The book The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas J. StanleyThe Millionaire Mind by Thomas J. StanleyYou Need a Budget: Software to Help You Budget Easily and Wisely  Discussed in this Podcast: Financial Advice for the First Year TeacherFinancial Advice for the Teacher About to RetireFinancial Advice for the Teacher in the MIddle of Her CareerHow to Earn Extra Money as a TeacherBest Investment Strategies for Teachers Educators and Taxes: How to Lower Your Tax ObligationHow to Live on Less The Millionaire Educator's 5 Pillars of Wealth: Debt avoidance Hardcore savings via retirement accounts Tax minimization Prudent investing Embrace frugal living