The John Batchelor Show

THE MAKING OF THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, FEATURING THADDEUS MCCOTTER, 4-21-261940 WINSTON CHURCHILLThe current political landscape of 2026 bears a striking resemblance to the 2006 and 2008 election cycles, suggesting a potential midterm realignment. In 2006, the Democratic Party, led by strategist Rahm Emanuel, successfully utilized the mantra "send George Bush a message" to dismantle what was then considered a "permanent" Republican majority. This shift was driven by public dissatisfaction with the Iraq War and emerging economic fissures that eventually led to the 2008 Great Deflation.Today, the Republican Party faces similar "headwinds" as it navigates the midterm of Donald Trump's second term. The sources indicate that the American economy is currently fragile, plagued by inflation, rising oil prices, and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the conflict with Iran. Thaddius Mart observes that while macroeconomic numbers might not look "terrible" to some, many Americans feel the "hearth of home" is endangered due to the high cost of gas, food staples, and the threat of AI destroying entry-level jobs. This economic anxiety mirrors the "distressing period" of 2006, where the public sought a "better path" away from the incumbent party.A significant challenge for the current Republican majority is that President Trump "sucks the oxygen out of the room," making it nearly impossible for individual members to campaign independently of his polarizing presence. This dynamic was also present with George W. Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama during his midterms, where the president's low approval ratings weighed down the entire ticket. Internal GOP friction is further evidenced by figures like Senator Tom Tillis, who chose retirement over a campaign centered on personal loyalty to the president rather than policy.Conversely, the sources suggest the Democratic Party possesses a "deeper bench" of potential candidates for 2028, such as Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer. Mart predicts that Democrats may attempt to "break the glass ceiling" by nominating a moderate female candidate with executive experience, similar to how the "fresh face" of Barack Obama energized the base in 2008. While the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) present internal "fissures," the party remains united by a shared goal of defeating the MAGA movement.Ultimately, the Republican majority is described as "hanging by a thread". To avoid a "deluge" similar to 2006, the GOP must move beyond "whimsical" policies and pass legislation that offers "palpable benefits" to the public, particularly regarding healthcare and affordability. However, with time running out before the midterms, the sources conclude that history appears poised to repeat itself, with a Democratic surge.

SCHEDULE THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 4-21-26. 1932 OTTAWA PARLIAMENT HILL1. Elizabeth Peek analyzes Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve Chairman. The primary tension involves balancing Trump's demand for lower interest rates with Warsh's reputation as an inflation hawk. Warsh aims to reform Fed communications and reduce market noise while protecting the economy from rising inflation. 12. Elizabeth Peek discusses the Democratic Party's interest in Mamdani, comparing him to a younger, male version of AOC. She critiques his fiscal policies and progressive stance on Israel. Peek argues that while he appeals to urban blue states, his platform may fail to resonate with voters elsewhere. 23. Jonathan Schanzer reports on tenuous ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad led by JD Vance. While the US maintains an oil blockade, Iran's leadership remains fragmented over potential nuclear and missile concessions. Schanzer believes the US holds a medium-term advantage through sustained economic pressure on the Islamic Republic. 34. Jonathan Schanzer analyzes historic direct talks between Israel and Lebanon regarding border disputes. The Lebanese government seeks peace, but the survival of Hezbollah remains a major obstacle. Schanzer argues that true stability requires the full dismantlement of the Iranian-backed group through military or diplomatic means. 45. Mary Kissel critiques the State Department's bureaucratic inefficiency while managing multiple global crises. She discusses the unconventional diplomacy of Jared Kushner and JD Vance. Kissel warns that the Iran conflict is complex and may require months of sustained economic and military pressure to reach a resolution. 56. Mary Kissel highlights Ukraine's fear of losing Western attention to the Middle East. She notes Ukraine's emerging defense exports but criticizes US oil sanctions waivers for Russia. Kissel also addresses the Progressive Alliance in Barcelona, which advocates for a "no borders" new world order. 67. Joseph Sternberg discusses JD Vance's disappointment after Victor Orbán lost the Hungarian election. He also previews UK local elections where Nigel Farage's Reform UK party is gaining ground. Sternberg warns that local governance issues like potholes could eventually alienate Farage's core base of new voters. 78. Joseph Sternberg details the scandal surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the appointment of Lord Mandelson. Allegations involve Mandelson's ties to Jeffrey Epstein and failed vetting processes. Despite widespread unpopularity, Starmer remains in power because the Labor Party lacks a viable alternative leader to take control. 89. Gregory Copley describes the intractable situation in the Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire deadlines loom. He identifies IRGC leader Ahmed Vahidi as a hardliner who will not negotiate. Copley argues that only decisive military action against IRGC leadership can resolve the conflict and secure international waters. 910. Gregory Copley discusses a new geopolitical block involving Turkey, Syria, and Ukraine. This coalition, coordinated by Erdoğan, seeks to position Turkey as a central energy and food hub. The alliance serves as a regional power block potentially opposing the interests of the United States and Israel. 1011. Gregory Copley explores the evolution of nation-states and modern imperialism since the Treaty of Westphalia. He argues that almost all modern states are products of empire. Copley warns that globalist "no borders" movements are utopianist and ignore the geographic realities of sovereign security and survival. 1112. Gregory Copley details King Charles III's upcoming visit to the United States to honor its 250th anniversary. The King serves as a peacemaker, attempting to heal the rift between the US and the UK's Labor government. His presence aims to bolster Trump's international standing and calm tensions. 1213. Joe Truzman identifies Ashab al-Yamin, an Iranian front group conducting arson and IED attacks across Europe. These low-sophistication strikes target Jewish and Western institutions to distance Tehran from direct blame. Authorities struggle to respond as the group recruits petty criminals through the internet to execute missions. 1314. Sinan Ciddi examines Erdoğan's hostility toward Israel, which intensified after 2009. While Turkey maintains lucrative trade, Erdoğan uses anti-Israel rhetoric to secure domestic support. Turkey's material support for Hamas and Hezbollah undermines its credibility as a potential mediator for regional peace in the Middle East. 1415. John Hardie explains Ukraine's innovative drone technology, including long-distance interceptors operated via Starlink. Drones cause approximately 80% of Russian casualties and protect pilots by moving them from the front lines. However, Ukraine still faces a severe manpower shortage that drones cannot fully resolve on their own. 1516. Ahmad Sharawi outlines the first phase of the Iran-Gulf conflict, where Tehran targeted energy infrastructure and airports in nine Arab states. These asymmetrical attacks aimed to destroy regional stability and economic confidence. Proximity left the UAE and Kuwait particularly vulnerable to these Iranian-led strikes. 16

15. John Hardie explains Ukraine's innovative drone technology, including long-distance interceptors operated via Starlink. Drones cause approximately 80% of Russian casualties and protect pilots by moving them from the front lines. However, Ukraine still faces a severe manpower shortage that drones cannot fully resolve on their own. 151930 COUNCIL OF WORLD PARLIAMENTS

16. Ahmad Sharawi outlines the first phase of the Iran-Gulf conflict, where Tehran targeted energy infrastructure and airports in nine Arab states. These asymmetrical attacks aimed to destroy regional stability and economic confidence. Proximity left the UAE and Kuwait particularly vulnerable to these Iranian-led strikes. 161940  LONDON

13. Joe Truzman identifies Ashab al-Yamin, an Iranian front group conducting arson and IED attacks across Europe. These low-sophistication strikes target Jewish and Western institutions to distance Tehran from direct blame. Authorities struggle to respond as the group recruits petty criminals through the internet to execute missions. 131920

12. Gregory Copley details King Charles III's upcoming visit to the United States to honor its 250th anniversary. The King serves as a peacemaker, attempting to heal the rift between the US and the UK's Labor government. His presence aims to bolster Trump's international standing and calm tensions. 121918

11. Gregory Copley explores the evolution of nation-states and modern imperialism since the Treaty of Westphalia. He argues that almost all modern states are products of empire. Copley warns that globalist "no borders" movements are utopianist and ignore the geographic realities of sovereign security and survival. 111910 PALACE OF WESTMINSTER

10. Gregory Copley discusses a new geopolitical block involving Turkey, Syria, and Ukraine. This coalition, coordinated by Erdoğan, seeks to position Turkey as a central energy and food hub. The alliance serves as a regional power block potentially opposing the interests of the United States and Israel. 101910 POSTCARD

9. Gregory Copley describes the intractable situation in the Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire deadlines loom. He identifies IRGC leader Ahmed Vahidi as a hardliner who will not negotiate. Copley argues that only decisive military action against IRGC leadership can resolve the conflict and secure international waters. 91910

8. Joseph Sternberg details the scandal surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the appointment of Lord Mandelson. Allegations involve Mandelson's ties to Jeffrey Epstein and failed vetting processes. Despite widespread unpopularity, Starmer remains in power because the Labor Party lacks a viable alternative leader to take control. 81909

7. Joseph Sternberg discusses JD Vance's disappointment after Victor Orbán lost the Hungarian election. He also previews UK local elections where Nigel Farage's Reform UK party is gaining ground. Sternberg warns that local governance issues like potholes could eventually alienate Farage's core base of new voters. 71909

6. Mary Kissel highlights Ukraine's fear of losing Western attention to the Middle East. She notes Ukraine's emerging defense exports but criticizes US oil sanctions waivers for Russia. Kissel also addresses the Progressive Alliance in Barcelona, which advocates for a "no borders" new world order. 61905 POSTCARD

V5. Mary Kissel critiques the State Department's bureaucratic inefficiency while managing multiple global crises. She discusses the unconventional diplomacy of Jared Kushner and JD Vance. Kissel warns that the Iran conflict is complex and may require months of sustained economic and military pressure to reach a resolution. 51904

4. Jonathan Schanzer analyzes historic direct talks between Israel and Lebanon regarding border disputes. The Lebanese government seeks peace, but the survival of Hezbollah remains a major obstacle. Schanzer argues that true stability requires the full dismantlement of the Iranian-backed group through military or diplomatic means. 41901 MONET

3. Jonathan Schanzer reports on tenuous ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad led by JD Vance. While the US maintains an oil blockade, Iran's leadership remains fragmented over potential nuclear and missile concessions. Schanzer believes the US holds a medium-term advantage through sustained economic pressure on the Islamic Republic. 31880

2. Elizabeth Peek discusses the Democratic Party's interest in Mamdani, comparing him to a younger, male version of AOC. She critiques his fiscal policies and progressive stance on Israel. Peek argues that while he appeals to urban blue states, his platform may fail to resonate with voters elsewhere. 21879

1. Elizabeth Peek analyzes Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve Chairman. The primary tension involves balancing Trump's demand for lower interest rates with Warsh's reputation as an inflation hawk. Warsh aims to reform Fed communications and reduce market noise while protecting the economy from rising inflation. 11642 HOUSE OF LORDS

PREVIEW FOR LATER: Gregory Copley discusses King Charles III's state visit to the US, aiming to heal the rift between Donald Trump and UK PM Keir Starmer. The King's role involves navigating the Labor government's perceived disloyalty to Trumpwhile strengthening the bond between the two nations ahead of America's 250th anniversary.1680 CHARLES II

PREVIEW FOR LATER: Jonathan Schanzer outlines historic negotiations between Lebanon and Israel over the "blue line" border. While President Joseph Aoun seeks engagement, the talks are muddled by the continued presence of Hezbollah. Lasting peace requires the full dismantlement of Hezbollah's military presence, which currently maintains a stranglehold over the country.1900 HOTEL BEIRUT

PREVIEW FOR LATER: Ahmad Sharawi details Iranian attacks in the Gulf targeting energy and civilian infrastructure, particularly in the UAE. Gulf states are rapidly bolstering defenses using Ukrainian air defense systems and knowledge. Despite these efforts, Iran is expected to maintain its strategy of targeting critical infrastructure in future conflict phases.1909 ARABIA

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY: Sinan Ciddi discusses Turkey's pursuit of regional dominance under Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Despite positioning itself as a peaceful mediator, Turkey's support for Hamas and Hezbollah undermines its credibility. Recent US sanctions against Turkish entities for aiding terrorist organizations further expose the country's compromised position.1879

Preview for Later Today: Joseph Sternberg examines the Lord Mandelson scandal and the appointment of an "unfit" ambassador. The controversy highlights the outsized power of British civil servants, who can bypass elected politicians. Prime Minister Starmer claims civil servants failed to report vetting red flags, raising questions about government accountability.1901 OLD HOUSE

Preview for Later Today:  Joe Truzman details the rise of Ashab al-Yamin, an Iranian front group carrying out attacks across Europe. Targeting Jewish institutions, Western banks, and Christiancenters, the group employs petty criminals to create chaos. European authorities are struggling to respond to this sustained Iranian-backed threat.1772 LONDON

STREAMING MAKING OF THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, FEATURING BILL ROGGIO AND JANATYN SAYEH, 4-20-26.  1688 PERSIA GULFThe Levant and Eurasia are currently gripped by what analysts describe as the "fog of peace," a state where a ceasefire is technically in place but characterized by profound distrust and a lack of transparency. While the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran originally centered on Iran's nuclear weapons program, the focus has shifted toward an intractable struggle over the Strait of Hormuz.The Strait has become a primary flashpoint of "open/closed" chaos, likened to a "Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd" hunting season metaphor. The US has established a naval blockade, recently using a destroyer's main gun to disable the engine room of an Iranian cargo ship that attempted to run the blockade. Iran counters this by creating confusion, such as firing on an Indian tanker that reportedly had clearance from the IRGC to pass, a tactic designed to make international shipping reconsider the route entirely.Diplomatically, the situation is stalled. Planned talks in Islamabad between US representatives and the Islamic Republicare not moving forward. This deadlock is exacerbated by a structural shift in Iranian leadership. Following the assassination of the Supreme Leader and other top officials, decision-making has fallen to a five-man council of dedicated revolutionaries. These individuals, often categorized as "hardliners" rather than "pragmatists," view compromise under pressure as a sign of weakness and are wary of suffering the same fate as Muammar Gaddafi. This new leadership is believed to be radical and intractable, with many members rising from the younger, hardcore ranks of the regime.Internally, the regime is employing brutal measures to maintain control. There are chilling reports that Iran has developed aerosol fentanyl — a chemical weapon capable of killing large populations — and may have experimentally used it against domestic protesters as early as 2022. The regime's fear of internal unrest is further evidenced by the deployment of checkpoints staffed by non-Iranian proxies to suppress a population demoralized by economic exasperation and a perceived lack of external backing. Precursors for these chemical experiments are reportedly provided by China.The geopolitical timeline appears to favor Tehran. Iranian leaders believe they can "run out the clock" on the Trumpadministration. The US faces significant domestic constraints, including low presidential poll numbers and the impending 2026 midterm elections, which could return the House of Representatives to Democratic control and trigger a return to the "age of impeachment." Additionally, Russia and China have strategic incentives to keep the Islamic Republic afloat, viewing the conflict as a test of whether their partner can withstand prolonged US and Israeli military pressure. Consequently, the "fog of peace" remains thick, with both sides acting on distrust rather than a genuine path toward a treaty.

SCHEDULE THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 4-20-26.1689 ARABIAN PENINSULAThe Fog of Peace and the Strait of Hormuz: The US and Iran are currently in a "fog of peace," where a ceasefire is complicated by a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions escalated after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to run the blockade. Negotiations in Islamabad face a massive diplomatic chasm regarding nuclear and missile programs. Bill Roggio (1)The Persistence of Iranian Proxies: Iran has not "turned off" proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, despite ongoing ceasefire talks. Bill Roggio argues that assassinating leaders is ineffective, as Hezbollah maintains significant power and a plurality in the Lebanese parliament. These groups continue to operate independently to provoke Israel and the surrounding neighborhood. Bill Roggio (2)Navigating Iran's Fractured Leadership: Iran's leadership is currently a faceless structure of five major figures, following the supreme leader's absence. This complicates diplomacy because no single person has decisive say. The regime remains paranoid about appearing weak and is unlikely to make concessions on its nuclear or ballistic missile programs. Jonathan Sayeh (3)Internal Unrest and Chemical WMD Threats: Iran is attempting to incorporate its proxies into diplomatic deals with Washington. Internally, the regime faces unrest in Baluch majority areas and economic grievances. There are alarming reports that the regime has developed aerosolized fentanyl, a chemical weapon intended to suppress domestic protesters with lethal force. Jonathan Sayeh (4)Memorial Day and Iran's Economic Ruin: Israel observes Memorial Day for 27,000 fallen soldiers amid a seven-sided war. In Iran, the economy is collapsing as the IRGC takes control. Despite heavy bombing, the IRGC has reportedly reawakened its missile arsenal to 70% capacity, utilizing underground storage to protect launchers from past Israeli and US strikes. Malcolm Hoenlein (5)Global Terror Cells and the Isaac Accords: Iranian-backed terror cells were discovered in Azerbaijan, the UAE, and Europe targeting synagogues and government facilities. Meanwhile, the "Isaac Accords" between Israel and Argentina, led by Javier Milei, seek to deepen ties in Latin America. Additionally, Turkey is proposing new rail links to bypass strategic maritime choke points. Malcolm Hoenlein (6)The Anti-American Shift in South Korea: South Korea's administration is described as an illegitimate, pro-North Korean regime. President Lee Jae-myung has allegedly bribed North Korea and moved to disarm South Koreansoldiers. Experts suggest the US should utilize UN Central Command to restore legitimate leadership and prevent the alliance from further deteriorating. Morse Tan (7)Defense Partnerships in Southeast Asia: The US and Indonesia have formed a major defense partnership, providing a critical counterweight to Chinese influence. Indonesia is seeking private capital for high-tech and extractive projects. Security remains a concern as Chinese drones have been found in Indonesian waters and fishing fleets frequently violate maritime boundaries. Charles Ortell (8)Toughening the Non-Proliferation Treaty: Henry Sokolski argues the NPT needs updating to deny states the "right" to make nuclear fuel. He highlights that the Bushehr reactor contains spent fuel rods capable of producing 200 plutonium bombs. He recommends that Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states pay to return this dangerous material to Russia. Henry Sokolski (9)Weaponizing Space and the Golden Dome: The IRGC used a commercial satellite to target US bases, resulting in an attack in Kuwait. The Pentagon is struggling with jamming and shutter control issues regarding commercial systems like Starlink. Oversight is requested for the "Golden Dome" defense program due to its high costs and limited information sharing. Henry Sokolski (10)Election Fraud and Global Progressivism: Peru faces a crisis over alleged electoral fraud following irregularities in the presidential count. In Barcelona, a "Global Progressivism" meeting led by Pedro Sanchez gathered leftist leaders to counter the "global right." Critics argue these leftist movements are increasingly intertwined with organized crime and drug trafficking. Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo (11)The Rise of Flavio Bolsonaro and Venezuela's Fate: Flavio Bolsonaro is leading polls in Brazil, representing a hope for clean governance against Lula's corruption-prone administration. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan regime has halted compliance with political reforms, making it dangerous for Maria Corina Machado to return. Brazil remains the "big one" for the region's political balance. Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo (12)The Restrictive Ceasefire in Lebanon: A new ceasefire in Lebanon is highly restrictive, limiting Israeli self-defense to "imminent" or "ongoing" attacks. President Trump reportedly strong-armed Israel into this stand-down to facilitate maritime negotiations with Iran. Consequently, Hezbollah is expected to use this period to regenerate its forces and rebuild its infrastructure. David Daoud (13)Hezbollah's Victory Narrative and Bint Jbeil: Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli convoys and refuses to surrender its arsenal, claiming the ceasefire as a victory. The town of Bint Jbeil remains a critical symbolic and military prize for the group. The Lebanese government shows no determination to disarm Hezbollah or enforce sovereignty in the southern region. David Daoud (14)The Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as a standoff persists between the US blockade and Iranian vessels. While Iran has the patience for a long conflict, the US is pressured by midterm elections and oil prices. Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, are increasingly hawkish, urging the US to finish the job. Edmund Fitton Brown (15)Iran's Agile Diplomacy and the Five Files: Iran is "moving the goalposts" by linking the Lebanon ceasefire to maritime negotiations. Success requires progress on five files: the Strait, nuclear program, ballistic missiles, proxies, and human rights. Some Gulf autocracies may prefer a weakened Iran over a successful democratic regime change that could threaten their own prestige. Edmund Fitton Brown (16)

Iran's Agile Diplomacy and the Five Files: Iran is "moving the goalposts" by linking the Lebanon ceasefire to maritime negotiations. Success requires progress on five files: the Strait, nuclear program, ballistic missiles, proxies, and human rights. Some Gulf autocracies may prefer a weakened Iran over a successful democratic regime change that could threaten their own prestige. Edmund Fitton Brown (16)1680

The Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as a standoff persists between the US blockade and Iranian vessels. While Iran has the patience for a long conflict, the US is pressured by midterm elections and oil prices. Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, are increasingly hawkish, urging the US to finish the job. Edmund Fitton Brown (15)1662

Hezbollah's Victory Narrative and Bint Jbeil: Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli convoys and refuses to surrender its arsenal, claiming the ceasefire as a victory. The town of Bint Jbeil remains a critical symbolic and military prize for the group. The Lebanese government shows no determination to disarm Hezbollah or enforce sovereignty in the southern region. David Daoud (14)1654

The Restrictive Ceasefire in Lebanon: A new ceasefire in Lebanon is highly restrictive, limiting Israeli self-defense to "imminent" or "ongoing" attacks. President Trump reportedly strong-armed Israel into this stand-down to facilitate maritime negotiations with Iran. Consequently, Hezbollah is expected to use this period to regenerate its forces and rebuild its infrastructure. David Daoud (13)1648

The Rise of Flavio Bolsonaro and Venezuela's Fate: Flavio Bolsonaro is leading polls in Brazil, representing a hope for clean governance against Lula's corruption-prone administration. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan regime has halted compliance with political reforms, making it dangerous for Maria Corina Machado to return. Brazil remains the "big one" for the region's political balance. Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo (12)1643 ARTAXERXES II.

Election Fraud and Global Progressivism: Peru faces a crisis over alleged electoral fraud following irregularities in the presidential count. In Barcelona, a "Global Progressivism" meeting led by Pedro Sanchez gathered leftist leaders to counter the "global right." Critics argue these leftist movements are increasingly intertwined with organized crime and drug trafficking. Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo (11)

Weaponizing Space and the Golden Dome: The IRGC used a commercial satellite to target US bases, resulting in an attack in Kuwait. The Pentagon is struggling with jamming and shutter control issues regarding commercial systems like Starlink. Oversight is requested for the "Golden Dome" defense program due to its high costs and limited information sharing. Henry Sokolski (10)

Toughening the Non-Proliferation Treaty: Henry Sokolski argues the NPT needs updating to deny states the "right" to make nuclear fuel. He highlights that the Bushehr reactor contains spent fuel rods capable of producing 200 plutonium bombs. He recommends that Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states pay to return this dangerous material to Russia. Henry Sokolski (9)1606

The Anti-American Shift in South Korea: South Korea's administration is described as an illegitimate, pro-North Korean regime. President Lee Jae-myung has allegedly bribed North Korea and moved to disarm South Koreansoldiers. Experts suggest the US should utilize UN Central Command to restore legitimate leadership and prevent the alliance from further deteriorating. Morse Tan (7)1585

The Anti-American Shift in South Korea: South Korea's administration is described as an illegitimate, pro-North Korean regime. President Lee Jae-myung has allegedly bribed North Korea and moved to disarm South Koreansoldiers. Experts suggest the US should utilize UN Central Command to restore legitimate leadership and prevent the alliance from further deteriorating. Morse Tan (7)1574

Global Terror Cells and the Isaac Accords: Iranian-backed terror cells were discovered in Azerbaijan, the UAE, and Europe targeting synagogues and government facilities. Meanwhile, the "Isaac Accords" between Israel and Argentina, led by Javier Milei, seek to deepen ties in Latin America. Additionally, Turkey is proposing new rail links to bypass strategic maritime choke points. Malcolm Hoenlein (6)1574

Memorial Day and Iran's Economic Ruin: Israel observes Memorial Day for 27,000 fallen soldiers amid a seven-sided war. In Iran, the economy is collapsing as the IRGC takes control. Despite heavy bombing, the IRGC has reportedly reawakened its missile arsenal to 70% capacity, utilizing underground storage to protect launchers from past Israeli and US strikes. Malcolm Hoenlein (5)1572 CASTLE HORMUZ

Internal Unrest and Chemical WMD Threats: Iran is attempting to incorporate its proxies into diplomatic deals with Washington. Internally, the regime faces unrest in Baluch majority areas and economic grievances. There are alarming reports that the regime has developed aerosolized fentanyl, a chemical weapon intended to suppress domestic protesters with lethal force. Jonathan Sayeh (4)1621

Navigating Iran's Fractured Leadership: Iran's leadership is currently a faceless structure of five major figures, following the supreme leader's absence. This complicates diplomacy because no single person has decisive say. The regime remains paranoid about appearing weak and is unlikely to make concessions on its nuclear or ballistic missile programs. Jonathan Sayeh (3)1519

The Persistence of Iranian Proxies: Iran has not "turned off" proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, despite ongoing ceasefire talks. Bill Roggio argues that assassinating leaders is ineffective, as Hezbollah maintains significant power and a plurality in the Lebanese parliament. These groups continue to operate independently to provoke Israel and the surrounding neighborhood. Bill Roggio (2)303-1453

The Fog of Peace and the Strait of Hormuz: The US and Iran are currently in a "fog of peace," where a ceasefire is complicated by a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions escalated after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to run the blockade. Negotiations in Islamabad face a massive diplomatic chasm regarding nuclear and missile programs. Bill Roggio (1)1519

Preview for Later Today: Edmund Fitton-Brown compares the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb maritime choke points. He notes the Red Sea's accessibility via the Suez Canal and the varying capabilities of regional threats like the Houthis. (2)1869 SUEZ CANAL

Preview for tomorrow: John Hardie discusses Ukraine's growing concerns that US attention and resources are shifting toward Middle East conflicts. Key worries include diminishing momentum for peace talks and the availability of critical air defense missiles. (3)1890 Ukraine

Morris Tan expresses concern over the South Korean president, citing corruption and the consolidation of power. Tanwarns that the leader is steering the nation toward a communist dictatorship and endangering the vital US alliance. (4)1950 KOREA WAR

Henry Sokolski warns that the Bushehr nuclear reactor's spent rods could produce plutonium for weapons. He criticizes past negotiation failures and urges the current administration to establish stricter surveillance standards during all ongoing nuclear talks. (3)1721 PERSIA

Charles Ortell analyzes Malaysia's positive international relations, highlighting historical ties with Australia and strong US investment. He describes the nation as a capitalism-friendly environment with amicable relations among its diverse Indian, Chinese, and Malay populations. (2)MALAYSIA

David Daoud discusses reports that the US administration pressured Israel to halt its offensive against Hezbollah to facilitate negotiations with Iran, preventing the Israeli military from establishing a new, favorable status quo in Lebanon. (1)1969 LEBANON

As the wine flows, we consider a "fairy tale" from the 21st century regarding a new tax on wealthy second homes in New York City. While the proposal to tax penthouses sounds witty to the masses, Germanicus warns it is mere "Kabuki smoke and mirrors" that will drive the wealthy to flee, drawing parallels to programs that destroyed communities and hampered natural mobility. He argues that only those who have lived under the "monstrous regimes" of the East — like those in Germany or Hungary — truly understand the devastation these ideas bring to the human spirit. Our evening concludes with a plan to visit the circus, preferring jugglers and marionettes to the exhausting drama of the modern age, as we depart the wine bar to offer our sacrifices to the divine Augustus. (3)1550 ROME

Continuing our discourse, Germanicus notes a profound shift: the citizen-militia that once defended the republic has been replaced by a professional force, decoupling the public from the costs of war. Modern "ceremonial war" relies on missiles or foreign proxies like Ukraine to do the dying, yet fails to reach strategic conclusions. The coming midterm elections represent a "body blow" that could see the opposition seize control of the House, while the potential rise of "Democratic Socialists" — compared to the Bolshevik revolution — threatens identity politics and wealth confiscation that would lead to a "time of troubles." We conclude that both parties are essentially eating from the same soup bowl while the empire erodes. (2)1572 AFTER THE FALL OF CONSTANTIOPLE.

Gaius & Germanicus debate in the Londinium wine bar, 92 AD. In our gathering, Gaius and Germanicus address the unfolding chaos of the 21st-century empire for you, veteran centurions. The Emperor is increasingly viewed as unfit by the global commentariat, delivering contradictory messages that leave allies and adversaries confused. Germanicusargues the Emperor allowed himself to be led into a failed war in Persia by Mr. Netanyahu, a conflict that lacks strategic objective and risks a consequential defeat. This "ceremonial" military, though dazzling in appearance, mimics the "mini-me" force of Israel, capable only of destroying cities rather than achieving decisive victory. The American public, sensing this failure through the Emperor's erratic social media posts, recognizes the nation is no longer the superpower it once was — as in the Roman tradition, an emperor who loses an army is quickly discarded. (1)457 AMBROSIAN ILLIAD

Tamny critiques the federal government's "command economy" response, specifically the trillions of dollars in stimulus and the Payroll Protection Program. He argues that consumption does not drive growth — investment does — and that by "hoovering up" capital from those most capable of investing and redistributing it to consumers, the government delayed natural economic recovery. The PPP propped up "the past" and prevented the necessary "creative destruction" that allows a dynamic economy to evolve. Tamny ultimately advocates for freedom as the only sustainable answer to future crises, noting that private enterprise — not government mandates — produced the vaccines in record time. (4)1918 SEATTLE