Podcast appearances and mentions of bill roggio

After two American soldiers are killed in Syria, Washington responds (not with hard questions). Same war. Same mistake. Same tragic — and avoidable — consequences. In a solo rant, Bill Roggio dismantles the official story behind Operation Hawkeye, exposes the jihadist reality of Syria's “security forces,” and ponders why the U.S. is (again) covering for al Qaeda–linked entities and calling it counterterrorism.

SHOW 12-22-25 THE SHOW BEGINS WITH DOUBTS ABOUT FUTURE NAVY. 1941 HICKAM FIELD 1. Restoring Naval Autonomy: Arguments for Separating the Navy from DoD. Tom Modly argues the Navy is an "underperforming asset" within the Defense Department's corporate structure, similar to how Fiat Chrysler successfully spun off Ferrari. He suggests the Navy needs independence to address critical shipbuilding deficits and better protect global commerce and vulnerable undersea cables from adversaries. 2. Future Fleets: Decentralizing Firepower to Counter Chinese Growth. Tom Modly warns that China's shipbuilding capacity vastly outpaces the US, requiring a shift toward distributed forces rather than expensive, concentrated platforms. He advocates for a reinvigorated, independent Department of the Navy to foster the creativity needed to address asymmetric threats like Houthi attacks on high-value assets. 3. British Weakness: The Failure to Challenge Beijing Over Jimmy Lai. Mark Simon predicts Prime Minister Starmer will fail to secure Jimmy Lai's release because the UK mistakenly views China as an economic savior. He notes the UK's diminished military and economic leverage leads to a submissive diplomatic stance, despite China'sdeclining ability to offer investment. 4. Enforcing Sanctions: Interdicting the Shadow Fleet to Squeeze China. Victoria Coates details the Trump administration's enforcement of a "Monroe Doctrine" corollary, using naval power to seize tankers carrying Venezuelan oil to China. This strategy exposes China's lack of maritime projection and energy vulnerability, as Beijingcannot legally contest the seizures of illicit shadow fleet vessels. 5. Symbolic Strikes: US and Jordan Target Resurgent ISIS in Syria. Following an attack on US personnel, the US and Jordan conducted airstrikes against ISIS strongholds, likely with Syrian regime consultation. Ahmed Sharawi questions the efficacy of striking desert warehouses when ISIS cells have moved into urban areas, suggesting the strikes were primarily symbolic domestic messaging. 6. Failure to Disarm: Hezbollah's Persistence and UNIFIL's Inefficacy. David Daoud reports that the Lebanesegovernment is failing to disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River, merely evicting them from abandoned sites. He argues UNIFIL is an ineffective tripwire, as Hezbollah continues to rebuild infrastructure and receive funding right under international observers' noses. 7. Global Jihad: The Distinct Threats of the Brotherhood and ISIS. Edmund Fitton-Brown contrasts the Muslim Brotherhood's long-term infiltration of Western institutions with ISIS's violent, reckless approach. He warns that ISISremains viable, with recent facilitated attacks in Australia indicating a resurgence in capability beyond simple "inspired" violence. 8. The Forever War: Jihadist Patience vs. American Cycles. Bill Roggio argues the US has failed to defeat jihadist ideology or funding, allowing groups like Al-Qaeda to persist in Afghanistan and Africa. He warns that adversaries view American withdrawals as proof of untrustworthiness, exploiting the US tendency to fight short-term wars against enemies planning for decades. 9. The Professional: Von Steuben's Transformation of the Continental Army. Richard Bell introduces Baron von Steuben as a desperate, unemployed Prussian officer who professionalized the ragtag Continental Army at Valley Forge. Washington's hiring of foreign experts like Steuben demonstrated a strategic willingness to utilize global talent to ensure the revolution's survival. 10. Privateers and Prison Ships: The Unsung Cost of Maritime Independence. Richard Bell highlights the crucial role of privateers like William Russell, who raided British shipping when the Continental Navy was weak. Captured privateers faced horrific conditions in British "black hole" facilities like Mill Prison and the deadly prison ship Jersey in New York Harbor, where mortality rates reached 50%. 11. Caught in the Crossfire: Indigenous Struggles in the Revolutionary War. Molly Brant, a Mohawk leader, allied with the British to stop settler encroachment but became a refugee when the British failed to protect Indigenous lands. Post-war, white Americans constructed myths portraying themselves as blameless victims while ignoring their own Indigenous allies and British betrayals regarding land rights. 12. The Irish Dimension: Revolutionary Hopes and Brutal Repression. The Irish viewed the American Revolutionas a signal that the British Empire was vulnerable, sparking the failed 1798 Irish rebellion. While the British suppressed Irish independence brutally under Cornwallis, Irish immigrants and Scots-Irish settlers like Andrew Jackson fervently supported the Continental Army against the Crown. 13. Assessing Battlefield Realities: Russian Deceit and Ukrainian Counterattacks. John Hardie analyzes the "culture of deceit" within the Russian military, exemplified by false claims of capturing Kupyansk while Ukraine actually counterattacked. This systemic lying leads to overconfidence in Putin's strategy, though Ukraine also faces challenges with commanders hesitating to report lost positions to avoid forced counterattacks. 14. Shifts in Latin America: Brazilian Elections and Venezuelan Hope. Ernesto Araujo and Alejandro Peña Esclusapredict a 2026 battle between socialist accommodation and freedom-oriented transformation in Brazil, highlighted by Flavio Bolsonaro's candidacy against Lula. Meanwhile, Peña Esclusa anticipates Venezuela's liberation and a broader regional shift toward the right following leftist defeats in Ecuador, Argentina, and Chile. 15. Trump's Security Strategy: Homeland Defense Lacks Global Clarity. John Yoo praises the strategy's focus on homeland defense and the Western Hemisphere, reviving a corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. However, he criticizes the failure to explicitly name China as an adversary or define clear goals for defending allies in Asia and Europe against great power rivals. 16. Alienating Allies: The Strategic Cost of Attacking European Partners. John Yoo argues that imposing tariffs and attacking democratic European allies undermines the coalition needed to counter China and Russia. He asserts that democracies are the most reliable partners for protecting American security and values, making cooperation essential despite resource constraints and political disagreements.

8. The Forever War: Jihadist Patience vs. American Cycles. Bill Roggio argues the US has failed to defeat jihadist ideology or funding, allowing groups like Al-Qaeda to persist in Afghanistan and Africa. He warns that adversaries view American withdrawals as proof of untrustworthiness, exploiting the US tendency to fight short-term wars against enemies planning for decades. 1910 PESHAWAR

PREVIEW Guest: Bill Roggio Summary: Roggio reports on the expansion of jihadist groups across Africa, including Somalia, Mali, and Burkina Faso. He warns that European powers have effectively abandoned these regions, allowing them to descend into chaos and fall under jihadist control, while the US does only enough in Somalia to "keep the lid on." 1935 ETHIOPIA

According to the Taliban's self-assessment (what could go wrong), Afghanistan is "stable" — but according to reality, it's not. Terrorist groups still operate openly, al-Qaeda remains embedded, and the same extremists are now being trusted to “fight” other extremists.Bill Roggio and Edmund Fitton-Brown break down why outsourcing counterterrorism to jihadists is a fatal mistake — and why the so-called "peace of the Taliban" comes at an unbearable price: the erasure of half the country's population and the return of Afghanistan as a global terror hub.

SOMALIA PUNTLAND 2022 Ambassador Hussein Haqqani and Bill Roggio discuss global terror outbreaks, including ISIS-linked attacks in Australia and Afghanistan. Haqqani argues the West prematurely declared victory, ignoring radical ideologies. He notes Pakistan's internal power struggles and failure to track jihadists, warning the region remains a launchpad for international terrorism. Bill Roggio analyzes the ISIS allegiance of Australian shooters, distinguishing ISIS's immediate caliphate goals from Al-Qaeda's patient state-building. He warns that while Al-Qaeda focuses on consolidating control in places like Somalia (Al-Shabaab), they remain a potent global threat capable of launching external attacks when strategically advantageous. John Hardie discusses US pressure on Ukraine to withdraw from Donetsk and drop NATO bids for peace. He details Russian advances near Pokrovsk but doubts their ability to capture remaining fortress cities. Hardie notes Ukrainian resistance to territorial concessions despite Russian battlefield initiative and Western diplomatic maneuvering. David Daoud reports on Hezbollah's regeneration in Lebanon, aided by Iranian funding and weapons. He criticizes the Lebanese government's inaction and the international community's appeasement strategy. Daoudargues that failing to disarm Hezbollah to avoid civil war only guarantees Lebanon's slow deterioration into a failed state. Malcolm Hoenlein condemns the Bondi Beach terror attack as part of a global pattern of Islamist violence fueled by appeasement. He highlights the Australian government's failure to address warning signs, including anti-Semitic marches, and notes Iranian influence, warning that ignoring these threats invites further radicalization and violence. Malcolm Hoenlein expresses skepticism about Syria's leader, Al-Sharaa, calling him a "terrorist in a suit" despite Washington's support. He details Israel's concerns over weapons flowing into southern Syria and Hezbollah'srearmament, warning that Iran continues to build missile capabilities and destabilize the region despite economic ruin. Cleo Paskal critiques the UK's deal to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, endangering the strategic US base on Diego Garcia. She warns that China's influence in Mauritius could compromise the base. Paskal argues the deal ignores Chagossian rights and leaves the region vulnerable to Chinese expansionism. Akmed Sharawi reports on a "blue-on-green" attack in Syria where an infiltrated security officer killed Americans. He attributes this to the Syrian leadership's reckless integration of jihadist militias into security forces without vetting. Sharawi and Roggio argue this proves terrorists cannot be trusted to police other terrorists. Edmund Fitton-Brown warns that the West's premature "retirement" of counterterrorism efforts has allowed threats to incubate in conflict zones like Afghanistan. He argues that ignoring these regions inevitably leads to attacks in the West, as terrorists seek attention by striking "peaceful" environments, necessitating renewed forward engagement. Edmund Fitton-Brown argues the Muslim Brotherhood creates an environment for violent extremists like ISIS. He criticizes Western governments, specifically Australia, for appeasing Islamists and recognizing Palestine, which he claims fuels anti-Semitism and radicalization. He warns of "copycat" attacks spreading to the US and Europe due to this permissiveness. Alejandro Pena Esclusa and Ernesto Araujo celebrate the Nobel Peace Prize for Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado, viewing it as recognition of peaceful resistance against the Maduro regime. They discuss the regional struggle against a "project of power" linking Marxist socialism, drug trafficking, and authoritarian allies like Russiaand Iran. Ernesto Araujo and Alejandro Pena Esclusa analyze Latin America's rightward shift, citing Chile's rejection of a leftist constitution and election disputes in Honduras. They attribute leftist defeats to the failure of socialism and credit the "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine for encouraging democratic changes against regional narco-regimes. Professor Jonathan Healey details King Charles I's failed 1642 attempt to impeach and arrest five MPs, a move driven by Queen Henrietta Maria calling him a "poltroon." This "cinematic" blunder, betrayed by Lady Carlisle, unified Parliament against the King, marking a decisive step toward the English Civil War. Professor Jonathan Healey explains how the plague and volatile London crowds, including "Roundhead" apprentices, eroded King Charles I's authority in early 1642. The King's failed arrest attempt alienated moderates, shifting support to Parliamentarian John Pym, while the atmosphere of fear and disease accelerated the nation toward inevitable conflict. Professor Jonathan Healey describes the collapse of royal authority as King Charles I flees London after facing hostile crowds and biblical threats. While Queen Henrietta Maria seeks foreign aid, Charles establishes a court in York, accepting that armed conflict is necessary to subdue Parliament's radical legislative challenges. Professor Jonathan Healey recounts the humiliating refusal of Hull's governor to admit King Charles I, a key moment signaling open warfare. He discusses the irreconcilable ideological split over whether power derives from God or the people, illustrating the tragedy through figures like John Bankes who sought futile compromise.

Ambassador Hussein Haqqani and Bill Roggio discuss global terror outbreaks, including ISIS-linked attacks in Australia and Afghanistan. Haqqani argues the West prematurely declared victory, ignoring radical ideologies. He notes Pakistan's internal power struggles and failure to track jihadists, warning the region remains a launchpad for international terrorism. 1867

Bill Roggio analyzes the ISIS allegiance of Australian shooters, distinguishing ISIS's immediate caliphate goals from Al-Qaeda's patient state-building. He warns that while Al-Qaeda focuses on consolidating control in places like Somalia(Al-Shabaab), they remain a potent global threat capable of launching external attacks when strategically advantageous. 1842 Afghanistan

PREVIEW: Western Leadership Fails to Address Radical Ideology: Colleague Bill Roggio criticizes Western leadership for failing to address the foundational radical ideology spawning groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, contending that politicians avoid this core issue by focusing on political finger-pointing and side topics, ignoring the networks that continue to promote extremist violence globally. 1909 ARABIAN DESERT

The "Variable Geometry" of the Muslim Brotherhood and Its Global Affiliates: Colleagues Edmund Fitton-Brown and Bill Roggio explain that the Muslim Brotherhood operates as a "mothership" for various Islamist movements, utilizing a strategy of "variable geometry" to adapt to local political environments while aiming for a global caliphate; Hamas functions as the Palestinian branch of the Brotherhood and despite being severely damaged by the war with Israel remains the dominant force in Gaza, with the Brotherhood finding state sponsorship primarily in Qatar, which provides funding and media support via Al Jazeera, and Turkey, where President Erdogan acts as a leader for the organization. 1934 TURKEY

SHOW 12-8-2025 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1895 KHYBER PASS THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT THE FEDERAL RESERVE  BOARD OF GOVERNORS. FIRST HOUR 9-915 The DC Shooter, the Zero Units, and the Tragedy of the Afghan Withdrawal: Colleagues Husain Haqqani and Bill Roggio discuss recent violence in Washington, D.C. involving an Afghan immigrant that has drawn attention back to the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021; the shooter, Ramanula Lakanal, was a member of the elite "Zero Units" of the Afghan National Army, a force that demanded priority evacuation for their families in exchange for providing security at the Kabul airport during the U.S. retreat, and while these units were stalwart allies against enemies like al-Qaeda and ISIS, they fought a "dirty war" and were accused of human rights violations, highlighting the broader failure of the withdrawal which occurred because political will faded across multiple administrations. 915-930 The Vetting Failure and the Lack of an Exit Strategy in Afghanistan: Colleagues Husain Haqqani and Bill Roggioexplain that the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was exacerbated by the lack of a methodical exit strategy, unlike the British who organized their departure and evacuation lists well in advance; critics argue that the U.S. imported significant security risks by rushing the evacuation, bringing in over 100,000 Afghans without adequate vetting, and while there was a moral obligation to help those who served, experts suggest that wholesale importation of citizens from a war-torn country was not the only solution and that better vetting or resettlement in third countries should have been considered. 930-945 Martial Law in South Korea and the Shadow of the North: Colleagues Morse Tan and Gordon Chang discuss South Korea facing severe political turmoil following President Yoon's declaration of martial law, a move his supporters argue was a constitutional response to obstructionist anti-state forces; the opposition, led by figures previously sympathetic to North Korea, has been accused of attempting to paralyze the government, while accusations of "insurrection" against President Yoon are dismissed as nonsensical, with the political infighting fracturing the conservative party and leaving South Korea vulnerable to the North Korean regime in a way not seen since the Korean War. 945-1000 Japan Stands Up for Taiwan While Canada Demurs: Colleagues Charles Burton and Gordon Chang report that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi recently declared that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a "survival threatening situation" for Japan, authorizing the mobilization of self-defense forces; this statement has triggered a massive propaganda campaign from Beijing demanding a retraction, as a successful invasion of Taiwan would likely require violating Japanese sovereignty, while in contrast Canada remains reluctant to support Tokyo or criticize Beijing, hoping to secure trade benefits and diversify exports away from the U.S., leaving Japan isolated by its allies. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 The Survival of UNRWA and the Flow of Terror Finance: Colleagues Malcolm Hoenlein and Thaddeus McCotterreport that despite investigations revealing corruption and ties to terrorism, the UN has renewed the mandate for UNRWA for another three years; the organization's facilities have been used by Hamas and its schools have been implicated in radicalizing children, yet international efforts to replace it have stalled, while Hamas leadership refuses to disarm or accept international oversight, demanding a Palestinian state as a precondition for any change, with financial support for terror groups continuing to flow through networks in Europe and the Middle East. 1015-1030 Greece's "Achilles Shield" and Israel's Iron Beam Laser Defense: Colleagues Malcolm Hoenlein and Thaddeus McCotter report that Greece is undertaking a historic modernization of its armed forces, unveiling a new national defense strategy focused on long-range missiles and a modernized air defense system dubbed "Achilles Shield," allowing Greece to project power more flexibly in the Eastern Mediterranean and counter threats from Turkey; in Israel, a major defensive breakthrough is imminent with the deployment of the "Iron Beam," a laser defense system capable of intercepting threats at approximately $50 per shot, expected to rewrite the rules of air defense by effectively countering drone swarms and missiles. 1030-1045 Hezbollah's Quiet Regeneration Under Naim Qassem: Colleagues David Daoud and Bill Roggio report that since the ceasefire began, Hezbollah has received at least $2 billion from Iran and is actively rearming and regenerating its forces in Lebanon; the terror group is focusing on acquiring drone swarms and other asymmetrical weapons that are cheap to produce and difficult for Israel to counter, while Hezbollah's new leader Naim Qassem is leveraging his "bookish" and underestimated persona to lower the temperature and allow the group to rebuild without attracting the same level of scrutiny as his predecessor. 1045-1100 Fragmentation in Yemen: The Southern Transitional Council Advances: Colleagues Bridget Tumi and Bill Roggio report that the civil war in Yemen is fracturing further as the Southern Transitional Council, which advocates for southern secession, advances into eastern governorates to secure territory and combat smuggling; this move has heightened tensions within the anti-Houthi coalition, as the STC is backed by the UAE while other government factions are supported by Saudi Arabia, weakening the collective effort against the Houthis who control the capital Sanaa and maintain ambitions to conquer the entire country. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 The Druze National Guard and Internal Strife in Southern Syria: Colleagues Ahmad Sharawi and Bill Roggio report that instability is growing in Syria's Druze-majority Suwayda province, where a newly formed "National Guard" militia has begun arresting and killing political opponents; the militia is spiritually guided by Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, who has consolidated power by sidelining other Druze leaders who were open to reconciliation with the Assad regime, with Turkey expressing support for the anti-Assad Druze factions against both the Syrian government and Kurdish forces, while recent violence suggests a hardening of anti-regime sentiment. 1115-1130 The "Variable Geometry" of the Muslim Brotherhood and Its Global Affiliates: Colleagues Edmund Fitton-Brown and Bill Roggio explain that the Muslim Brotherhood operates as a "mothership" for various Islamist movements, utilizing a strategy of "variable geometry" to adapt to local political environments while aiming for a global caliphate; Hamas functions as the Palestinian branch of the Brotherhood and despite being severely damaged by the war with Israel remains the dominant force in Gaza, with the Brotherhood finding state sponsorship primarily in Qatar, which provides funding and media support via Al Jazeera, and Turkey, where President Erdogan acts as a leader for the organization. 1130-1145 Ukraine Negotiations Hit a Cul-de-Sac Amidst Infiltration Tactics: Colleagues John Hardie and Bill Roggio report that peace talks regarding Ukraine are currently at a standstill, with the U.S. and Ukraine at odds over Russia's demands for territory in the Donbas versus Ukraine's need for meaningful security guarantees; while the U.S. has pressured Ukraine to concede territory, the security assurances offered are viewed skeptically by Kyiv, and Russia refuses to accept any Western military presence in Ukraine, while on the battlefield Russia employs infiltration tactics using small groups, sometimes single soldiers, to penetrate deep into Ukrainian positions. 1145-1200 The Trump Corollary: Reviving the Monroe Doctrine in Latin America: Colleague Ernesto Araújo discusses a new "Trump corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine reshaping U.S. policy in the Americas, signaling a more assertive stance against foreign influence and authoritarian regimes; this shift is evident in Venezuela, where President Maduro appears to be negotiating his exit in the face of U.S. pressure, while in Brazil the administration of Lula da Silva faces significant instability due to a massive banking scandal linking the government to money laundering and organized crime, with the new application of the Monroe Doctrine suggesting the U.S. will favor political figures aligned with its security strategy. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Devil's Advocates: Robert Stryk, Rudy Giuliani, and the Business of Influence: Colleague Kenneth P. Vogel discusses how in the power vacuum created by Donald Trump's arrival in Washington, unconventional lobbyists like Robert Stryk rose to prominence by marketing access to the new administration; Stryk, described as an "anti-hero" with a checkered business past, hosted a lavish event at the Hay-Adams Hotel to legitimize the regime of Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo, successfully delivering Rudy Giuliani as Trump's personal attorney, signaling a new informal channel for foreign diplomacy and highlighting how foreign regimes utilized large sums of money and unconventional intermediaries to seek favor. 1215-1230 The Accidental Diplomat: Robert Stryk and the New Zealand Connection: Colleague Kenneth P. Vogel explains that Robert Stryk's rise in the lobbying world was fueled by serendipity and bold bluffs, exemplified by a chance encounter with a New Zealand diplomat at a cafe; the diplomat revealed that New Zealand, having prepared for a Clinton victory, had no contacts within the incoming Trump team and could not arrange a congratulatory call between their Prime Minister and the President-elect, and Stryk, leveraging a connection to a former Trump campaign field director, provided a phone number that successfully connected the embassy to Trump's team, establishing his credibility and launching his career in high-stakes foreign lobbying. 1230-1245 Hunter Biden, Chinese Spies, and the Monetization of Political Connections: Colleague Kenneth P. Vogel reports that following his father's departure from the vice presidency, Hunter Biden faced financial pressure and sought lucrative foreign clients, leading to risky entanglements; one venture involved a corrupt Romanian real estate magnate who hired Hunter along with former FBI Director Louis Freeh and Rudy Giuliani to resolve his legal troubles, with the proposed solution involving selling land including the site of the U.S. Embassy in Romania to a Chinese state-linked fund, and Hunter Biden was aware of the nature of his associates, referring to one as the "spy chief of China." 1245-100 AM FARA: From Fighting Nazi Propaganda to Modern Transparency: Colleague Kenneth P. Vogel explains that the Foreign Agents Registration Act was originally enacted in 1938 to counter Nazi propaganda in the United States before World War II; at the time, the Third Reich was paying well-connected American consultants to whitewash Hitler's image and keep the U.S. out of the war, operating without public knowledge, and Congress passed FARA to create transparency, requiring those paid by foreign principals to influence the U.S. government or media to register their activities, with the law remaining today the primary vehicle for accountability in foreign lobbying

Ukraine Negotiations Hit a Cul-de-Sac Amidst Infiltration Tactics: Colleagues John Hardie and Bill Roggio report that peace talks regarding Ukraine are currently at a standstill, with the U.S. and Ukraine at odds over Russia's demands for territory in the Donbas versus Ukraine's need for meaningful security guarantees; while the U.S. has pressured Ukraine to concede territory, the security assurances offered are viewed skeptically by Kyiv, and Russia refuses to accept any Western military presence in Ukraine, while on the battlefield Russia employs infiltration tactics using small groups, sometimes single soldiers, to penetrate deep into Ukrainian positions. 1940 UKRAINE

The DC Shooter, the Zero Units, and the Tragedy of the Afghan Withdrawal: Colleagues Husain Haqqani and Bill Roggio discuss recent violence in Washington, D.C. involving an Afghan immigrant that has drawn attention back to the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021; the shooter, Ramanula Lakanal, was a member of the elite "Zero Units" of the Afghan National Army, a force that demanded priority evacuation for their families in exchange for providing security at the Kabul airport during the U.S. retreat, and while these units were stalwart allies against enemies like al-Qaeda and ISIS, they fought a "dirty war" and were accused of human rights violations, highlighting the broader failure of the withdrawal which occurred because political will faded across multiple administrations. 1878 KHYBER

Hezbollah's Quiet Regeneration Under Naim Qassem: Colleagues David Daoud and Bill Roggio report that since the ceasefire began, Hezbollah has received at least $2 billion from Iran and is actively rearming and regenerating its forces in Lebanon; the terror group is focusing on acquiring drone swarms and other asymmetrical weapons that are cheap to produce and difficult for Israel to counter, while Hezbollah's new leader Naim Qassem is leveraging his "bookish" and underestimated persona to lower the temperature and allow the group to rebuild without attracting the same level of scrutiny as his predecessor. 1867

Fragmentation in Yemen: The Southern Transitional Council Advances: Colleagues Bridget Tumi and Bill Roggio report that the civil war in Yemen is fracturing further as the Southern Transitional Council, which advocates for southern secession, advances into eastern governorates to secure territory and combat smuggling; this move has heightened tensions within the anti-Houthi coalition, as the STC is backed by the UAE while other government factions are supported by Saudi Arabia, weakening the collective effort against the Houthis who control thYEMEN800 e capital Sanaa and maintain ambitions to conquer the entire country. 1800 YEMEN

The Druze National Guard and Internal Strife in Southern Syria: Colleagues Ahmad Sharawi and Bill Roggio report that instability is growing in Syria's Druze-majority Suwayda province, where a newly formed "National Guard" militia has begun arresting and killing political opponents; the militia is spiritually guided by Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, who has consolidated power by sidelining other Druze leaders who were open to reconciliation with the Assad regime, with Turkey expressing support for the anti-Assad Druze factions against both the Syrian government and Kurdish forces, while recent violence suggests a hardening of anti-regime sentiment. 1914 SYRIA

PREVIEW — Bill Roggio — Reflecting on the Necessity of the 2021 Afghanistan Withdrawal. Batchelor and Bill Roggio examine whether the 2021 American retreat from Afghanistan was strategically necessary given the resulting humanitarian violence, economic despair, and humanitarian crisis that followed Taliban recapture of the nation. Roggioasserts that the Afghanistan war was systematically "fought on the cheap" utilizing a corrupt, incompetent Afghangovernment model dependent upon American military and financial life support, creating structural fragility and institutional decay. Roggio emphasizes that Afghans bear substantial responsibility for the subsequent collapse because Afghan leadership and civil society chose deliberately not to address foundational governance failures, corruption, and military capability deficiencies despite decades of American resources and institutional support, thereby accepting institutional dysfunction rather than implementing necessary reforms. 1897 KHYBER PASS

Hamas Reemerges in Southern Syria Near Golan Heights — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio, Akmed Sharawari — Sharawari reports that Hamas has been systematically rebuilding military infrastructure in southern Syria, reportedly coordinating with Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood networks operating near the Golan Heights in the village of Bei Jin. Roggio notes that Syria's new government under Shara is unlikely to conduct forceful suppression operations due to widespread domestic sympathy for Palestinian causes among the Syrian population. Batchelor emphasizes that Israel'sstrategic position on Mount Hermon provides significant tactical advantage against threats originating from both Syriaand Lebanon, enabling rapid response to emerging security threats. 1500

DC Shooting, Afghan Veteran, and the Threat of Blue on Green Attacks — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio — The Washington DC tragedy, allegedly perpetrated by Afghan national Ramanula Lakenwal, is examined as a possible "blue on green" attack pattern. Lakenwal served as a veteran of the Afghan National Army Special Unit, potentially associated with CIA-backed Zero units operating covert counterterrorism missions. Roggio and Batchelor raise critical concerns regarding the vetting procedures for Afghan nationals and the potential political motivation of the attack given its proximity to the White House, suggesting possible ideological rather than criminal motivation. 1878 AFHANISTAN

Jihadists Remain a Threat: Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio — Batchelor and Roggio argue that jihadist organizations including Al-Qaeda and Islamic State remain a critical national security threat. Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) leaders, including Osama He and Aif Yahi Gori, have been designated as high-value targets with a $10 million reward for intelligence. Roggio documents that this group is systematically building infrastructure and operational capability in Afghanistan, enabled by Taliban toleration, raising concerns analogous to pre-9/11 conditions that enabled the original Al-Qaeda attack planning. 1900 THE SUBCONTINENT

Ukraine Talks Lack Firm Position Amid Russian Maximalist Demands — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio, John Hardie — Batchelor reports that US Envoy Witkoff is proceeding to Moscow for negotiations, but the American and Ukrainian negotiating positions remain unsettled and insufficiently coordinated, particularly regarding territorial concessions and security guarantee structures. Hardie characterizes Russian demands as fundamentally maximalist, claiming territory including strategically defensible portions of Donetsk that Russian forces have not militarily conquered. Roggio documents that President Putin remains overconfident regarding the conflict trajectory, apparently believing that prolonging the war will ultimately yield more favorable settlement terms and territorial gains than immediate negotiation. 1921

The Evolution of Drone Warfare in Ukraine — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio, John Hardie — Roggio examines drone warfare's significant but sometimes exaggerated role in the Ukraine conflict, tracing technological evolution from ISRreconnaissance drones like the TB2 to FPV (First Person View) drones, bomber drones, and emergent interceptor drone systems. Hardie identifies a consistent pattern: Ukraine consistently leads in innovative military technology development and deployment, while Russia demonstrates superior capability in rapidly scaling technologies to mass production and tactical integration, occasionally achieving operational effectiveness superior to the original Ukrainian innovations. Batchelor emphasizes this dynamic reflects fundamentally different military cultures and organizational capabilities.

Hezbollah Regeneration and Israel's Targeted Killing of Hashem Safieddine — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio, David Daoud — Daoud reports that Hezbollah is actively regenerating military capabilities throughout Lebanon, systematically violating the ceasefire agreement through infrastructure reconstruction and weapons procurement. Roggiodocuments that Israel successfully targeted and killed Hashem Safieddine, identified as Hezbollah's top military logistics officer overseeing reconstruction operations. Batchelor notes that Iran has reportedly allocated $2 billion for Hezbollah reconstruction and operational purposes, demonstrating Tehran's commitment to sustaining the organization despite military setbacks. Daoud details Israeli Defense Force operations including air strikes, drone operations, and ground-based policing activities against Hezbollah assets throughout Lebanon. 1836 BEIRUT

Lebanon's Failure to Disarm Hezbollah Amid Regeneration — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio, David Daoud — Roggio documents that the Lebanese government continues to systematically refuse enforcement of Hezbollahdisarmament provisions negotiated in the ceasefire agreement one year prior, instead employing rhetorical frameworks of "dialogue and consensus." Daoud reports that the Trump administration is growing impatient with this intransigence, explicitly setting deadlines for Lebanese compliance and action. Batchelor emphasizes that Hezbollah is regenerating with unprecedented speed, focusing on easily manufactured assets including drone swarms, rendering the Lebanesestrategic concept of "containment" operationally meaningless and strategically ineffective in limiting Hezbollahcapabilities. 1902 CARACAS

Palestinian Islamic Jihad Presence in Syria and Iranian Ties — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio, Akmed Sharawari — Sharawari documents that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) maintains operational presence in Syria, conducting activities from refugee camps adjacent to Damascus, maintaining historical organizational relationships with the Assadregime structure. Roggio emphasizes that PIJ functions as a crucial Iranian proxy organization, receiving weapons, financial resources, and operational guidance from Tehran's security apparatus. Batchelor notes that although PIJ was a major participant in the October 7th attacks on Israel, Shara's current government is reluctant to provide full institutional sponsorship due to significant associated political and security risks from Israeli retaliation. 1920 DAMASCUS

US Designates Muslim Brotherhood Branches and Ideological Threat — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio, Edmund Fitton-Brown — Fitton-Brown describes the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) as a secretive, transnational organization with deliberately decentralized hierarchical structure designed to obscure leadership and maintain operational security. Fitton-Brown articulates the organization's long-term strategic objective: establishment of a global Islamic caliphatestructure superseding nation-states. Batchelor reports that the US formally designated violent Muslim Brotherhoodaffiliates operating in Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt as terrorist organizations. Roggio notes conspicuously that Turkishand Qatari Muslim Brotherhood branches were omitted from designation, likely because those nations are viewed as strategically important US policy facilitators requiring diplomatic accommodation. 1900 ISTANBUL POST OFFICE

Iran's Aggressive Posture, Sanctions Evasion, and 'Fake Reform' — John Batchelor, Bill Roggio, Jonathan Sayeh— Sayeh characterizes Iran as an active predator state, systematically seizing commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and progressively advancing its nuclear weapons program toward weapons-grade fissile material production. Batchelor documents that despite US sanctions regimes, Iran currently exports more petroleum than during the previous administration, suggesting inadequate enforcement rigor and possible sanctions evasion through intermediary nations. Sayeh characterizes Iranian regime tactics as employing "fake reform," superficially tolerating hijab violations while simultaneously intensifying internal security crackdowns, executions, and suppression of political dissent, creating a facade of liberalization masking deepening authoritarianism. 1870 TEHRAN

Tune in here to this Monday's edition of the Brett Winterble Show! Brett kicks off the program by talking about gratitude and grief, setting the tone by contrasting the spirit of Thanksgiving with the chaos he believes has overtaken public life. He reflects on a tragic incident in Washington, D.C., describing it as a symbol of what he calls a “death of decency.” Brett discusses the divide he sees between people guided by faith, compassion, and community, and those he characterizes as driven by anger and disruption. T We’re joined by Bill Roggio from the Long War Journal to talk about radicalization and the troubling gaps in U.S. security policy. Roggio explains that while the attacker had been vetted as part of Afghanistan’s CIA-supported “Zero Units,” that kind of battlefield vetting doesn’t necessarily translate into suitability for U.S. residency or citizenship. Early reports suggest a mix of possible mental-health concerns and exposure to radical influences, but he cautions that much remains unknown. Listen here for all of this and more on The Brett Winterble Show! For more from Brett Winterble check out his YouTube channel. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

PREVIEW — Bill Roggio — The Threat of "Blue on Green" Attacks. Roggio addresses "blue on green" attacks, wherein Afghan security personnel, including national army and police units, attacked American and NATO forces throughout Afghanistan. The Taliban frequently orchestrated these insider attacks, which peaked dramatically between 2009 and 2013. This threat remains tragically relevant following a recent attack in the District of Columbia allegedly perpetrated by an Afghan veteran, reportedly a former special forces member previously attached to the CIA. 1867 KHYBER PASS

Tune in here to this Monday's edition of the Brett Winterble Show! We’re joined by Bill Roggio from the Long War Journal to talk about radicalization and the troubling gaps in U.S. security policy. Roggio explains that while the attacker had been vetted as part of Afghanistan’s CIA-supported “Zero Units,” that kind of battlefield vetting doesn’t necessarily translate into suitability for U.S. residency or citizenship. Early reports suggest a mix of possible mental-health concerns and exposure to radical influences, but he cautions that much remains unknown. Roggio also pushes back on the idea of “self-radicalization,” noting that individuals rarely develop extremist ideology in isolation—there is usually online content, personal contacts, or ideological influencers guiding the process. He raises questions about how the suspect obtained a firearm and stresses the broader challenge of identifying who may pose a threat once inside the country. Overall, Roggio argues that preventing future attacks requires a clearer, stricter approach to vetting and monitoring radicalization pathways. Listen here for all of this and more on The Brett Winterble Show! For more from Brett Winterble check out his YouTube channel. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hezbollah Regeneration Efforts and the Fallout from a Targeted Beirut Strike — David Daoud, Bill Roggio — David Daoud reports that Israel killed Hezbollah's top military commander, Hashem Safieddine, in Beirut, marking an expansion of Israeli operations into the Lebanese capital. This escalation reflects Hezbollah's comprehensive regeneration efforts—including receiving billions in funding from Iran and developing domestic drone production capabilities—which are outpacing Israeli degradation operations. Hezbollah and Hamas view Russia's success in Ukraine as strategically beneficial because it diminishes American global hegemony.

CONTINUED Hezbollah Regeneration Efforts and the Fallout from a Targeted Beirut Strike — David Daoud, Bill Roggio — David Daoud reports that Israel killed Hezbollah's top military commandeR IN operations. Hezbollah and Hamas view Russia's success in Ukraine as strategically beneficial because it diminishes American global hegemony. BEIRUT CASTLE

SHOW 11-24-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1852 THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT THE PEACE PLANS.  FIRST HOUR 9-915 Ukraine Peace Plans, Concessions, and the Impact on US Alliances — Bill Roggio, Husain Haqqani — Bill Roggiosuggests Ukraine is losing militarily and must accept difficult territorial and military concessions to ensure state survival, predicting that proposed peace deals will ultimately collapse. Ambassador Haqqani emphasizes that U.S. abandonment of allies, exemplified in Afghanistan and Iraq, creates an international perception that America cannot be relied upon. Russia's prevailing would constitute a victory for the "axis of aggressors," including China, Iran, and North Korea, fundamentally weakening U.S. global influence. 915-930 930-945 945-1000 China's Floating Island, Metamaterials, and Polar Ambitions — Brandon Weichert, Gordon Chang — Brandon Weichert discusses China developing an artificial floating island, potentially engineered to withstand nuclear detonation. He characterizes the platform as a next-generation man-made island designed for anti-access and area-denial capabilities. Weichert emphasizes that the core technology—metamaterials—holds critical applications for infrastructure in extreme polar environments, including the Arctic and Antarctic. Gordon Chang notes widespread pessimism in China regarding the prohibitive cost of such massive engineering projects. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Targeting Terror: Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, and Iran's Crises — Malcolm Hoenlein — Malcolm Hoenlein reports the U.S. is moving to designate the Muslim Brotherhood—Hamas progenitors—as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. He details Iran's severe internal crises, including critical water shortages and power blackouts caused by illegal cryptocurrency mining, alongside its continued drive to rebuild nuclear and conventional arsenals. Israel eliminated Hezbollah's second-in-command, Hashem Safieddine, in Beirut, directly countering Hezbollah's regeneration efforts in Lebanon. The U.S. is actively courting Saudi Arabia to counter China and Russia and encourage participation in the Abraham Accords. Share 1015-1030 1030-1045 Geopolitical Realignment: Venezuelan Cartel and Latin America's Rightward Shift — Ernesto Araujo, Alejandro Peña Esclusa — Alejandro Peña Esclusa discusses the U.S. designating Venezuela's Cartel of the Suns as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, noting they weaponize drug trafficking and maintain alliances with groups including Hezbollah. Ernesto Araujo addresses former Brazilian President Bolsonaro's recent detention and notes that indigenous protests undermined the Lula administration's narrative at COP 30. The upcoming Honduras election reflects a continental trend away from the corrupt "pink tide" regimes. 1045-1100 THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 The Unacceptable Price of Peace: Ukraine's Sticking Points — John Hardie — John Hardie details the Russian-drafted 28-point peace plan, which demanded Ukraine's withdrawal from Donbass, prohibition of NATO accession, and limitations on military force size. Ukraine, approaching negotiations strategically, refuses to surrender fortified Donbass territory essential for defense against future Russian aggression. Russia's maximalist demands render an acceptable settlement nearly impossible, though Ukrainians would accept a military freeze in place coupled with robust Western security guarantees. 1115-1130 1130-1145 Russia's Ambitions in Southern Syria and Israel's Strategic Calculus — Akmed Sharawari — FDD's Akmed Sharawari discusses Russian officers touring southern Syria, potentially returning to staff deconfliction checkpoints between Israel and Syria. Israel reportedly prefers a Russian presence, including bases in western Syria, as a counterbalance to Turkey's growing influence over Damascus. Sharawari argues Israel should not trust Russia given its history of enabling Iranian-backed actors like Hezbollah. Despite ongoing Israeli operations, Hezbollah's smuggling routes remain operational. 1145-1200 Prime Minister Carney's Early Highwire Act in Canadian Politics — Conrad Black — Conrad Black analyzes the early tenure of Canadian Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland (referred to as Carney in this segment), who narrowly secured passage of his budget. Carney campaigned partly on opposition to Donald Trump, demonstrating political agility by balancing competing party factions—advancing a new pipeline for Alberta while offering environmental concessions. Black notes that Canada remains conflicted regarding China, attempting to maintain trade relations while publicly condemning election interference. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Iran's Strategic Gains from the War in Ukraine — Jonathan Sayeh — Jonathan Sayeh states that Iran is celebrating Russia's advantageous position in Ukraine as a geopolitical win because it enabled Iran to export military weaponry and demonstrate combat capabilities internationally. Iran expects Russia to reciprocate this military assistance, potentially through air defense system modernization or advancement of Iran's nuclear program, despite profound mutual mistrust between the strategic partners. Iran benefits globally by selling weapons and leveraging instability to argue the U.S. has become an unreliable superpower. 1215-1230 1230-1245 Hezbollah Regeneration Efforts and the Fallout from a Targeted Beirut Strike — David Daoud, Bill Roggio — David Daoud reports that Israel killed Hezbollah's top military commander, Hashem Safieddine, in Beirut, marking an expansion of Israeli operations into the Lebanese capital. This escalation reflects Hezbollah's comprehensive regeneration efforts—including receiving billions in funding from Iran and developing domestic drone production capabilities—which are outpacing Israeli degradation operations. Hezbollah and Hamas view Russia's success in Ukraine as strategically beneficial because it diminishes American global hegemony. 1245-100 AM

Ukraine Peace Plans, Concessions, and the Impact on US Alliances — Bill Roggio, Husain Haqqani — Bill Roggiosuggests Ukraine is losing militarily and must accept difficult territorial and military concessions to ensure state survival, predicting that proposed peace deals will ultimately collapse. Ambassador Haqqani emphasizes that U.S. abandonment of allies, exemplified in Afghanistan and Iraq, creates an international perception that America cannot be relied upon. Russia's prevailing would constitute a victory for the "axis of aggressors," including China, Iran, and North Korea, fundamentally weakening U.S. global influence. 1855 CRIMEAN WAR, SCOTS FUSILIER GUARDS

CONTINUED Ukraine Peace Plans, Concessions, and the Impact on US Alliances — Bill Roggio, Husain Haqqani  1855 CRIMEAN WAR GRENADIER GUARDS

Sudan Civil War, Global Proxies, and Nigerian Violence. Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio analyze the civil war in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, noting both factions commit atrocities, including massacres after the capture of El Fasher. The conflict is fueled by opposing global coalitions: the UAE and Russia support the RSF, while Iran, Egypt, and Turkey back the SAF. The Islamic State has called for foreign jihadis to mobilize. Weiss also addresses the complicated violence in Nigeria, differentiating jihadist attacks on Christians from communal farmer-herder conflict.

Sudan Civil War, Global Proxies, and Nigerian Violence. Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio analyze the civil war in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, noting both factions commit atrocities, including massacres after the capture of El Fasher. The conflict is fueled by opposing global coalitions: the UAE and Russia support the RSF, while Iran, Egypt, and Turkey back the SAF. The Islamic State has called for foreign jihadis to mobilize. Weiss also addresses the complicated violence in Nigeria, differentiating jihadist attacks on Christians from communal farmer-herder conflict. 1925

SHOW 11-12-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1930 THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT CHINA'S LEADERSHIP. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Allied AI Competition and Submarine Requests. Scott Harold examines the crucial role of allies Japan and South Korea in the AI competition against China. Japan is developing locally tailored AI models built on US technology for use in Southeast Asia. South Korea aims to become the third-largest AI power, offering reliable models to counter China's untrustworthy technology. Harold also discusses South Korea's surprising request for nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines to track Chinese and North Korean vessels, signaling a greater public willingness to contribute to China deterrence. 915-930 Rare Earths Monopoly and US Strategy. General Blaine Holt discusses China's challenge to the US and its allies regarding rare earths, noting that China previously threatened to cut off supply. The US is securing deals with partners like Australia and is on track to replace China entirely, despite initial processing reliance on Chinese predatory practices. Holt suggests a two-year recovery is conservative, as technology for domestic processing exists. He also notes China's leadership is in turmoil, trying to buy time through trade deals. 930-945 Russian Economic Stagnation and War Finance. Michael Bernstam confirms that the Russian economy is stagnating, expecting no growth for years due to exhausted resources and reliance on military production. Oil and gas revenues are down significantly due to Western sanctions and high discounts, widening the budget deficit. Russia is increasing taxes, including the VAT, which drives inflation in staples. This economic pain damages the popularity of the war by hurting the low-income population—the primary source of military recruitment. 945-1000 Buckley, Fusionism, and Conservative Integrity. Peter Berkowitz explores William F. Buckley's consolidation of the conservative movement through "fusionism"—blending limited government and social conservatism. Buckley purged the movement of anti-Semites based on core principles. Berkowitz uses this historical context to analyze the controversy surrounding Tucker Carlson giving a platform to Nick Fuentes, who openly celebrates Stalin and Hitler. This incident caused division after the Heritage Foundation's president, Kevin Roberts, defended Carlson, prompting Roberts to issue an apology. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Commodity Markets and UK Political Instability. Simon Constable analyzes rare earth markets, noting China's dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors. Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up, indicating high demand. Constable also discusses UK political instability, noting that Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer lacks natural leadership and confidence. The major political driver for a potential leadership change is the party's broken promise regarding income taxes, which severely undermines public trust before the next election, 1015-1030 Commodity Markets and UK Political Instability. Simon Constable analyzes rare earth markets, noting China's dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors. Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up, indicating high demand. Constable also discusses UK political instability, noting that Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer lacks natural leadership and confidence. The major political driver for a potential leadership change is the party's broken promise regarding income taxes, which severely undermines public trust before the next election 1030-1045 Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas. 1045-1100 Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Philippine Missile Deployment to Deter China. Captain Jim Fanell reports that the Philippines unveiled its first operational BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile battery in western Luzon to deter Chinese aggression. This supersonic missile system, part of the $7.2 billion Reorizon 3 modernization program, gives the Philippines "skin in the game" near disputed waters like Scarborough Shoal. The deployment signifies a strategy to turn the Philippines into a "porcupine," focusing defense on the West Philippine Sea. The systems are road-mobile, making them difficult to target. 1115-1130 AI, Cyber Attacks, and Nuclear Deterrence. Peter Huessy discusses the challenges to nuclear deterrence posed by AI and cyber intrusions. General Flynn highlighted that attacks on satellites, the backbone of deterrence, could prevent the US from confirming where a launch originated. Huessy emphasizes the need to improve deterrence, noting that the US likely requires presidential authorization for retaliation, unlike potential Russian "dead hand" systems. The biggest risk is misinformation delivered by cyber attacks, although the US maintains stringent protocols and would never launch based solely on a computer warning. 1130-1145 Sudan Civil War, Global Proxies, and Nigerian Violence. Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio analyze the civil war in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, noting both factions commit atrocities, including massacres after the capture of El Fasher. The conflict is fueled by opposing global coalitions: the UAE and Russia support the RSF, while Iran, Egypt, and Turkey back the SAF. The Islamic State has called for foreign jihadis to mobilize. Weiss also addresses the complicated violence in Nigeria, differentiating jihadist attacks on Christians from communal farmer-herder conflict. 1145-1200 Sudan Civil War, Global Proxies, and Nigerian Violence. Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio analyze the civil war in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, noting both factions commit atrocities, including massacres after the capture of El Fasher. The conflict is fueled by opposing global coalitions: the UAE and Russia support the RSF, while Iran, Egypt, and Turkey back the SAF. The Islamic State has called for foreign jihadis to mobilize. Weiss also addresses the complicated violence in Nigeria, differentiating jihadist attacks on Christians from communal farmer-herder conflict. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Corruption, Chinese Influence, and Protests in Serbia. Ivana Stradner discusses protests in Serbia demanding accountability one year after a canopy collapse killed 16 people, with investigations linking the accident to high-level corruption involving a Chinese company. Leader Vučić suppresses discontent by alleging the West is plotting a "color revolution." Although Vučić aligns his heart with Russia and China, he needs EU money for political survival, prompting him to offer weapons to the West and claim Serbia is on the EU path. 1215-1230 The Muslim Brotherhood and Its Global Network. Cliff May discusses the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the progenitor of Hamas, founded in 1928 after the Ottoman Caliphate's abolition. The MB's goal is to establish a new Islamic empire. Qatar is highly supportive, hosting Hamas leaders, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia have banned the MB. Turkish President Erdoğan is considered MB-adjacent and sympathetic, supporting Hamas and potentially viewing himself as a future Caliph, despite Turkey being a NATO member. 1230-1245 Commercial Space Records and Political Impacts on NASA. Bob Zimmerman covers new records in commercial space: SpaceX achieved 147 launches this year, and one booster tied the Space Shuttle Columbia for 28 reuses. China also set a record with 70 launches but had a failure. Commercial space faced temporary impacts, such as an FAA launch curfew due to a government shutdown and air traffic controller shortages. Zimmerman speculates that Jared Isaacman's conservative-leaning public appearance at Turning Point USA might have convinced Trump to renominate him for NASA Administrator. 1245-100 AM Commercial Space Records and Political Impacts on NASA. Bob Zimmerman covers new records in commercial space: SpaceX achieved 147 launches this year, and one booster tied the Space Shuttle Columbia for 28 reuses. China also set a record with 70 launches but had a failure. Commercial space faced temporary impacts, such as an FAA launch curfew due to a government shutdown and air traffic controller shortages. Zimmerman speculates that Jared Isaacman's conservative-leaning public appearance at Turning Point USA might have convinced Trump to renominate him for NASA Administrator.

SHOW 11-10-2025 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1910 gaza THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT THE GAZA "BOARD OF PEACE." FIRST HOUR 9-915 Analysis of the Trump Administration's "Take It or Leave It" Gaza Peace Plan. Bill Roggio and Ambassador Husain Haqqani discuss how the Trump administration proposed a "take it or leave it" Gaza victory plan, including a Board of Peace, international financing, and security. Ambassador Haqqani found the plan vague and a "fantasy," failing to address ground realities like disarming Hamas or the IDF's withdrawal. Bill Roggio insisted that peace is impossible under Hamas, whose charter demands Israel's removal. The vagueness makes it unclear how regional capitals like Cairo and Doha will respond, potentially allowing turmoil to continue. 915-930 Analysis of the Trump Administration's "Take It or Leave It" Gaza Peace Plan. Bill Roggio and Ambassador Husain Haqqani discuss how the Trump administration proposed a "take it or leave it" Gaza victory plan, including a Board of Peace, international financing, and security. Ambassador Haqqani found the plan vague and a "fantasy," failing to address ground realities like disarming Hamas or the IDF's withdrawal. Bill Roggio insisted that peace is impossible under Hamas, whose charter demands Israel's removal. The vagueness makes it unclear how regional capitals like Cairo and Doha will respond, potentially allowing turmoil to continue. 930-945 Hezbollah's Rearmament and Israeli Active Defense Strategy in Lebanon and Gaza Peace Plan. David Daoud discusses how since the Gaza ceasefire, Hezbollah has been rearming, which the deal did not preclude. Israel shifted to "active defense," striking Hezbollah personnel and assets north and south of the Litani River, including in the Beqaa Valley, making no place in Lebanon off-limits. Hezbollah funds its operations through illicit transnational and internal economic channels. The US plan for Gaza aims for international engagement to preclude Hamas's resurgence, potentially relying on an international force and Israeli assistance. 945-1000 Hezbollah's Rearmament and Israeli Active Defense Strategy in Lebanon and Gaza Peace Plan. David Daoud discusses how since the Gaza ceasefire, Hezbollah has been rearming, which the deal did not preclude. Israel shifted to "active defense," striking Hezbollah personnel and assets north and south of the Litani River, including in the Bekaa Valley, making no place in Lebanon off-limits. Hezbollah funds its operations through illicit transnational and internal economic channels. The US plan for Gaza aims for international engagement to preclude Hamas's resurgence, potentially relying on an international force and Israeli assistance. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Geopolitical Shifts: Gaza Peace, Syria's al-Sharaa, and REising Anti-Semitism. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses how the comprehensive US plan for Gaza proposes a transitional Board of Peace and mandates the disarming of Hamas. Hoenlein expressed skepticism regarding al-Sharaa's White House visit, noting his background as an ex-jihadist who ordered massacres of minorities in Syria. While neutralizing Syria would be positive, al-Sharaa has yet to prove himself. There is also rising concern over anti-Semitism in Europe, evidenced by attacks on Israeli sports teams and polls showing sympathy for Hamas. 1015-1030 Geopolitical Shifts: Gaza Peace, Syria's al-Sharaa, and Rising Anti-Semitism. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses how the comprehensive US plan for Gaza proposes a transitional Board of Peace and mandates the disarming of Hamas. Hoenlein expressed skepticism regarding al-Sharaa's White House visit, noting his background as an ex-jihadist who ordered massacres of minorities in Syria. While neutralizing Syria would be positive, al-Sharaa has yet to prove himself. There is also rising concern over anti-Semitism in Europe, evidenced by attacks on Israeli sports teams and polls showing sympathy for Hamas. 1030-1045 Assessing European Reliability in Countering the China Threat to Taiwan. Steve Yates discusses how Europe's reliability in defending Taiwan is questioned, despite the Taiwan Vice President addressing the EU Parliament. Europe has historically lacked a significant defense footprint in East Asia. China exploits the narrative of European colonial history and decline to separate Europe from Taiwan. Although some European leaders prioritize economic opportunity with Beijing, reliable economic partners like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan offer strong strategic and economic ballast against the risks posed by the People's Republic of China. 1045-1100 China's Censorship Campaign Against Pessimism and Social Discontent. Charles Burton discusses how China initiated a two-month campaign against "pessimism," targeting citizens who criticize the state due to economic failure, unfair housing, or joblessness. The regime ignores serious societal issues, relying on propaganda while profound discontent exists privately. Censorship is counterproductive, leading to false reporting and increasing internal cynicism toward the leadership. With official news censored, people rely on fast-running rumors, which the government attempts to deal with by arresting activists and rumor-mongers. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Russia's Winter Strikes on Ukrainian Energy and the Battle for Pokrovsk. John Hardie discusses how Russia is escalating its winter campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure using a higher percentage of hard-to-intercept ballistic missiles and drones. This aims to break Ukrainian will and create leverage for negotiations. On the front, the battle for Pokrovsk is difficult, with Russians infiltrating the city and disrupting logistics using fiber-optic-controlled FPV drones. Although Ukraine has succeeded in attriting Russian forces there, preserving manpower by avoiding a late withdrawal remains a critical concern. 1115-1130 Russia's Winter Strikes on Ukrainian Energy and the Battle for Pokrovsk. John Hardie discusses how Russia is escalating its winter campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure using a higher percentage of hard-to-intercept ballistic missiles and drones. This aims to break Ukrainian will and create leverage for negotiations. On the front, the battle for Pokrovsk is difficult, with Russians infiltrating the city and disrupting logistics using fiber-optic-controlled FPV drones. Although Ukraine has succeeded in attriting Russian forces there, preserving manpower by avoiding a late withdrawal remains a critical concern. 1130-1145 Assessing al-Sharaa's Visit and the Risks of the Gaza Board of Peace Proposal. Edmund Fitton-Brown discusses how the proposed Gaza "Board of Peace" is part of the Trump plan to create active international engagement and prevent a return to Hamas control. The international stabilization force must have "real teeth" to fight subversive elements, unlike the failed UNIFIL mission. Regarding al-Sharaa, the self-named Syrian president and ex-al-Qaeda veteran, the White House visit gives him a chance to stabilize Syria. However, he must be pressured to investigate massacres of Druze and Alawites and hold people accountable (trust but verify). 1145-1200 Assessing al-Sharaa's Visit and the Risks of the Gaza Board of Peace Proposal. Edmund Fitton-Brown discusses how the proposed Gaza "Board of Peace" is part of the Trump plan to create active international engagement and prevent a return to Hamas control. The international stabilization force must have "real teeth" to fight subversive elements, unlike the failed UNIFIL mission. Regarding al-Sharaa, the self-named Syrian president and ex-al-Qaeda veteran, the White House visit gives him a chance to stabilize Syria. However, he must be pressured to investigate massacres of Druze and Alawites and hold people accountable (trust but verify). FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Discussion of al-Sharaa's White House Visit, Syrian Sanctions, and Domestic Stability Issues. Ahmad Sharawi discusses how al-Sharaa (formerly al-Jolani), the self-named president of Syria and former al-Qaeda leader, visited the White House seeking the repeal of Caesar sanctions. The administration hopes he can stabilize Syria, ignoring his history of massacres against minorities like the Alawites and Druze. Critics argue he must address internal stability and remove foreign fighters first, as he is being rewarded for actions already serving his self-interest, such as fighting ISIS and limiting Iran's influence. 1215-1230 Discussion of al-Sharaa's White House Visit, Syrian Sanctions, and Domestic Stability Issues. Ahmad Sharawi discusses how al-Sharaa (formerly al-Jolani), the self-named president of Syria and former al-Qaeda leader, visited the White House seeking the repeal of Caesar sanctions. The administration hopes he can stabilize Syria, ignoring his history of massacres against minorities like the Alawites and Druze. Critics argue he must address internal stability and remove foreign fighters first, as he is being rewarded for actions already serving his self-interest, such as fighting ISIS and limiting Iran's influence. 1230-1245 Climate Change, Indigenous Demands, and Governance Challenges in the Amazon. Ernesto Araújo discusses how indigenous leaders at COP 30 highlighted demands tied to environmental issues in the Amazon, which spans many countries. Poverty drives illegal activities, like logging and mining, even on indigenous lands (14% of Brazilian territory), which are often exploited through bribery and organized crime. While Lula speaks of protecting the Amazon, deforestation and indigenous health figures remain poor. The complex solution requires enforcing existing laws and focusing on establishing law and order to fight pervasive corruption. 1245-100 AM Iran's Nuclear Stalemate, Economic Crisis, and Missile Program Aspirations. Jonathan Schanzer discusses how Iran views the lack of peace or war with Israel as a dangerous stalemate, while aspiring to fire 2,000 ballistic missiles at once in a future conflict. Covert Israeli operations target Iranian missile facilities. Despite sanctions, Iran's oil exports have sharply increased (2.3 million barrels/day) due to lax enforcement, funneling money to regime kleptocrats. Domestic crises like water and power shortages are increasing internal desperation, as the regime prioritizes regional ambitions over the welfare of the average Iranian. | 

Analysis of the Trump Administration's "Take It or Leave It" Gaza Peace Plan. Bill Roggio and Ambassador Husain Haqqani discuss how the Trump administration proposed a "take it or leave it" Gaza victory plan, including a Board of Peace, international financing, and security. Ambassador Haqqani found the plan vague and a "fantasy," failing to address ground realities like disarming Hamas or the IDF's withdrawal. Bill Roggio insisted that peace is impossible under Hamas, whose charter demands Israel's removal. The vagueness makes it unclear how regional capitals like Cairo and Doha will respond, potentially allowing turmoil to continue. 1957

Analysis of the Trump Administration's "Take It or Leave It" Gaza Peace Plan. Bill Roggio and Ambassador Husain Haqqani discuss how the Trump administration proposed a "take it or leave it" Gaza victory plan, including a Board of Peace, international financing, and security. Ambassador Haqqani found the plan vague and a "fantasy," failing to address ground realities like disarming Hamas or the IDF's withdrawal. Bill Roggio insisted that peace is impossible under Hamas, whose charter demands Israel's removal. The vagueness makes it unclear how regional capitals like Cairo and Doha will respond, potentially allowing turmoil to continue.

PREVIEW. Analyzing the Gaza 'Board of Peace' Proposal: Security and Trust Concerns. Bill Roggio analyzed the US 10-point Gaza proposal, which creates a political/technical "board of peace" to supervise rebuilding until it is replaced by Gazans in 2027. Crucially, the plan does not provide for security. Key issues include determining who will comprise the board, who will provide security forces, and whether Israel can trust certain participants, such as Turkey or Qatar. 1936

UNIFIL's Failure, Hezbollah's Rebuilding, and Syria's Fragmented Future. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ahmad Sharawi, and Bill Roggio label the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a "spectacular failure" that allowed Hezbollah's military buildup near the Israeli border. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring demilitarization south of the Litani River, the Lebanese government is stalling. Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its infrastructure, forcing Israel to conduct targeted enforcement actions. They also discuss Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is seeking international legitimacy, sanctions relief, and partners to counter ISIS, even as his state remains domestically fragmented by regional demands for separation or autonomy. 1895 BEIRUT

Middle East Disorder, Gaza Ceasefire, and Lessons from War Reporting. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani address the persistent disorder in the Middle East, noting that the Gaza ceasefire ("hudna") is only a pause. Ambassador Haqqani critiques the flawed concept of pursuing a "war to end all wars," suggesting the world is a situation to endure, not solve permanently. Bill Roggio compares the current stabilization efforts to the failed attempts in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ouster, noting that key players like Hamas remain undefeated or unwilling to disarm. Both experts stress the difficulty of verifying initial reports of mass violence, urging patience and skepticism regarding premature assumptions about perpetrators or motivations.

Middle East Disorder, Gaza Ceasefire, and Lessons from War Reporting. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani address the persistent disorder in the Middle East, noting that the Gaza ceasefire ("hudna") is only a pause. Ambassador Haqqani critiques the flawed concept of pursuing a "war to end all wars," suggesting the world is a situation to endure, not solve permanently. Bill Roggio compares the current stabilization efforts to the failed attempts in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ouster, noting that key players like Hamas remain undefeated or unwilling to disarm. Both experts stress the difficulty of verifying initial reports of mass violence, urging patience and skepticism regarding premature assumptions about perpetrators or motivations.

Russia's New Glide Bombs and Ukraine's Battlefield Crisis at Kurakhove. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how Russia has introduced new, longer-range guided glide bombs (like the UMPK and Grom-E1) that utilize cheap kits or purpose-built designs, offering a cost-effective, more survivable standoff weapon to attack critical infrastructure deep inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, the situation in the key logistics hub of Kurakhove is deteriorating, with Russian infantry infiltrating the city, disrupting crucial drone and mortar positions, and threatening to encircle remaining Ukrainian forces. Russia continues to maintain maximalist peace demands, including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and demilitarization, resulting in the cancellation of proposed peace talks. 1852

Russia's New Glide Bombs and Ukraine's Battlefield Crisis at Kurakhove. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how Russia has introduced new, longer-range guided glide bombs (like the UMPK and Grom-E1) that utilize cheap kits or purpose-built designs, offering a cost-effective, more survivable standoff weapon to attack critical infrastructure deep inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, the situation in the key logistics hub of Kurakhove is deteriorating, with Russian infantry infiltrating the city, disrupting crucial drone and mortar positions, and threatening to encircle remaining Ukrainian forces. Russia continues to maintain maximalist peace demands, including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and demilitarization, resulting in the cancellation of proposed peace talks. 1917 PETER

Iran's Contradictory Nuclear Signals and Proxy Support. Jonathan Schanzer and Bill Roggio discuss how Iran is sending contradictory messages regarding its nuclear enrichment program and negotiations, with President Pezeshkian ("the dove") threatening to restart enrichment. Schanzer explains that "reformists" like Pezeshkian serve as a calculated front to signal openness while building leverage for future talks. Iran appears willing to risk future strikes, believing it can absorb them. However, Iran's ability to significantly rebuild its air defenses is complicated by the risk of UN snapback sanctions potentially deterring Russia and China from supplying advanced systems. Sanctions relief remains a key factor in Iran's proxy support. 1890

UNIFIL's Failure, Hezbollah's Rebuilding, and Syria's Fragmented Future. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ahmad Sharawi, and Bill Roggio label the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a "spectacular failure" that allowed Hezbollah's military buildup near the Israeli border. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring demilitarization south of the Litani River, the Lebanese government is stalling. Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its infrastructure, forcing Israel to conduct targeted enforcement actions. They also discuss Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is seeking international legitimacy, sanctions relief, and partners to counter ISIS, even as his state remains domestically fragmented by regional demands for separation or autonomy. 66

SHOW 11-3-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1895 TRINIDAD THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT VENEZUELA. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Middle East Disorder, Gaza Ceasefire, and Lessons from War Reporting. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani address the persistent disorder in the Middle East, noting that the Gaza ceasefire ("hudna") is only a pause. Ambassador Haqqani critiques the flawed concept of pursuing a "war to end all wars," suggesting the world is a situation to endure, not solve permanently. Bill Roggio compares the current stabilization efforts to the failed attempts in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ouster, noting that key players like Hamas remain undefeated or unwilling to disarm. Both experts stress the difficulty of verifying initial reports of mass violence, urging patience and skepticism regarding premature assumptions about perpetrators or motivations. 915-930 Middle East Disorder, Gaza Ceasefire, and Lessons from War Reporting. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani address the persistent disorder in the Middle East, noting that the Gaza ceasefire ("hudna") is only a pause. Ambassador Haqqani critiques the flawed concept of pursuing a "war to end all wars," suggesting the world is a situation to endure, not solve permanently. Bill Roggio compares the current stabilization efforts to the failed attempts in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ouster, noting that key players like Hamas remain undefeated or unwilling to disarm. Both experts stress the difficulty of verifying initial reports of mass violence, urging patience and skepticism regarding premature assumptions about perpetrators or motivations. 930-945 Post-Ceasefire Gaza Hostages and Hezbollah Regeneration in Lebanon. David Daoud and Bill Roggio discuss how following the Gaza ceasefire, the process of returning remains of slain hostages remains delayed, which Daoud suggests Hamas uses as leverage to prevent Israel from resuming conflict and entrenching a "post-war mentality." Experts note that Hezbollah is actively regenerating its military capabilities in Lebanon, bypassing disarmament efforts. Despite continuous, targeted Israeli strikes against Hezbollah personnel, there is minimal international condemnation because the organization maintains overwhelming Shiite support and the Lebanese government fails to enforce disarmament. Plans for an international security force in Gaza remain vague. 945-1000 Post-Ceasefire Gaza Hostages and Hezbollah Regeneration in Lebanon. David Daoud and Bill Roggio discuss how following the Gaza ceasefire, the process of returning remains of slain hostages remains delayed, which Daoud suggests Hamas uses as leverage to prevent Israel from resuming conflict and entrenching a "post-war mentality." Experts note that Hezbollah is actively regenerating its military capabilities in Lebanon, bypassing disarmament efforts. Despite continuous, targeted Israeli strikes against Hezbollah personnel, there is minimal international condemnation because the organization maintains overwhelming Shiite support and the Lebanese government fails to enforce disarmament. Plans for an international security force in Gaza remain vague. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 NYC Election, Famine Propaganda, and Foreign Influence on Campus. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses the New York City mayoral election, focusing on the populist rise of candidate Zelldin Maamoun, whose anti-Israel stance and lack of economic knowledge threaten the city's large Israeli-founded tech sector. He reveals that a World Health Organization official admitted that promoting "famine" in Gaza was a deliberate communications and political pressure strategy, despite adequate food supply. Hoenlein confirms that Hezbollah is rearming and refashioning ordnance in Lebanon, forcing Israel's hand. University leaders have begun acknowledging that campus unrest was largely foreign-driven, specifically citing Iran. Indonesia is noted as a potential key player in future Abraham Accords. 1015-1030 NYC Election, Famine Propaganda, and Foreign Influence on Campus. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses the New York City mayoral election, focusing on the populist rise of candidate Zelldin Maamoun, whose anti-Israel stance and lack of economic knowledge threaten the city's large Israeli-founded tech sector. He reveals that a World Health Organization official admitted that promoting "famine" in Gaza was a deliberate communications and political pressure strategy, despite adequate food supply. Hoenlein confirms that Hezbollah is rearming and refashioning ordnance in Lebanon, forcing Israel's hand. University leaders have begun acknowledging that campus unrest was largely foreign-driven, specifically citing Iran. Indonesia is noted as a potential key player in future Abraham Accords. 1030-1045 US Military Buildup Near Venezuela and Opposition Support for Action. Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa discuss the unprecedented US military buildup at the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Base in Puerto Rico, interpreted as preparations for action against Venezuela. Peña Esclusa clarifies that the true Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado (who won 93% of the primary vote), supports US action against the Maduro drug cartel. Araújo asserts that this is viewed regionally as a "crusade against organized crime," not an invasion, and would be welcomed by people tired of instability. This credible threat is already pressuring Venezuelan military officials to negotiate Maduro's exiIT. 1045-1100 US Military Buildup Near Venezuela and Opposition Support for Action. Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa discuss the unprecedented US military buildup at the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Base in Puerto Rico, interpreted as preparations for action against Venezuela. Peña Esclusa clarifies that the true Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado (who won 93% of the primary vote), supports US action against the Maduro drug cartel. Araújo asserts that this is viewed regionally as a "crusade against organized crime," not an invasion, and would be welcomed by people tired of instability. This credible threat is already pressuring Venezuelan military officials to negotiate Maduro's exiIT.THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Russia's New Glide Bombs and Ukraine's Battlefield Crisis at Kurakhove. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how Russia has introduced new, longer-range guided glide bombs (like the UMPK and Grom-E1) that utilize cheap kits or purpose-built designs, offering a cost-effective, more survivable standoff weapon to attack critical infrastructure deep inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, the situation in the key logistics hub of Kurakhove is deteriorating, with Russian infantry infiltrating the city, disrupting crucial drone and mortar positions, and threatening to encircle remaining Ukrainian forces. Russia continues to maintain maximalist peace demands, including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and demilitarization, resulting in the cancellation of proposed peace talks. 1115-1130 Russia's New Glide Bombs and Ukraine's Battlefield Crisis at Kurakhove. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how Russia has introduced new, longer-range guided glide bombs (like the UMPK and Grom-E1) that utilize cheap kits or purpose-built designs, offering a cost-effective, more survivable standoff weapon to attack critical infrastructure deep inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, the situation in the key logistics hub of Kurakhove is deteriorating, with Russian infantry infiltrating the city, disrupting crucial drone and mortar positions, and threatening to encircle remaining Ukrainian forces. Russia continues to maintain maximalist peace demands, including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and demilitarization, resulting in the cancellation of proposed peace talks. 1130-1145 Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence. 1145-1200 Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 AI Revolution, Cloud Growth, and the Virtual Cell. Brandon Weichert reports on how AI is driving massive growth in cloud computing, exemplified by Amazon's surging shares and AWS growth, reaching paces "we haven't seen since 2022." Weichert dismisses fears of an "AI crash" as fear-mongering rooted in ignorance and past market bubbles, arguing that AI is sparking new sectors and enhancing productivity across industries. He details the cutting-edge application of AI in creating a "virtual cell"—computer models that simulate cell functions to speed up drug discovery, understand disease mechanisms, and inform scientific investigation. 1215-1230 Iran's Contradictory Nuclear Signals and Proxy Support. Jonathan Schanzer and Bill Roggio discuss how Iran is sending contradictory messages regarding its nuclear enrichment program and negotiations, with President Pezeshkian ("the dove") threatening to restart enrichment. Schanzer explains that "reformists" like Pezeshkian serve as a calculated front to signal openness while building leverage for future talks. Iran appears willing to risk future strikes, believing it can absorb them. However, Iran's ability to significantly rebuild its air defenses is complicated by the risk of UN snapback sanctions potentially deterring Russia and China from supplying advanced systems. Sanctions relief remains a key factor in Iran's proxy support. 1230-1245 UNIFIL's Failure, Hezbollah's Rebuilding, and Syria's Fragmented Future. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ahmad Sharawi, and Bill Roggio label the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a "spectacular failure" that allowed Hezbollah's military buildup near the Israeli border. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring demilitarization south of the Litani River, the Lebanese government is stalling. Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its infrastructure, forcing Israel to conduct targeted enforcement actions. They also discuss Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is seeking international legitimacy, sanctions relief, and partners to counter ISIS, even as his state remains domestically fragmented by regional demands for separation or autonomy. 1245-100 AM UNIFIL's Failure, Hezbollah's Rebuilding, and Syria's Fragmented Future. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ahmad Sharawi, and Bill Roggio label the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a "spectacular failure" that allowed Hezbollah's military buildup near the Israeli border. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring demilitarization south of the Litani River, the Lebanese government is stalling. Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its infrastructure, forcing Israel to conduct targeted enforcement actions. They also discuss Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is seeking international legitimacy, sanctions relief, and partners to counter ISIS, even as his state remains domestically fragmented by regional demands for separation or autonomy.