Podcasts about Anatol

CAPTION 1638 PERSIAN EMPIREForeign Conflicts Escalate Global Energy CrisisAnatol Lieven and Jonathan Guyer, co-authors of the report The Iran Trap, discuss interconnected conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, and Yemen threatening critical global energy infrastructure and driving up global diesel costs. Houthis disrupt Red Sea maritime routes while damaged Russian oil refineries reduce worldwide fuel exports. Public polling conducted by the Institute for Global Affairs reveals dropping support for foreign military interventions as four in five Americans connect overseas wars to rising living costs. Their report underscores public fatigue over escalating militarism and growing anxiety regarding unmonitored military artificial intelligence applications. The analysts argue that restoring diplomatic dialogue with China and reasserting congressional war powers remain essential steps toward resolving these compounding geopolitical crises. (1)

1806 KREMLINRussian Election Strategy And European SecurityAnatol Lieven notes the Kremlin closely monitors legislative elections, banning opposition parties to preempt anti-war sentiment while relying on well-paid volunteers rather than unpopular mass conscription. Meanwhile, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow, signaling possible shifts in diplomatic representation to explore war termination talks with Russian leadership. Discussions encompass discreet Russian assistance to Iran, hybrid warfare tactics in Europe, and mutual restraint among major global powers to avoid escalating into nuclear conflict. Concurrently, Great Britain faces severe military budget constraints, leaving its reserve forces underfunded and reducing its active fleet to just five operational warships. Political opposition across Europe further threatens long-term financial backing for Ukraine. (1)

Anatol will nicht in den Kindergarten. Seine Schwester Franzi will auch nicht in die Schule und Mama mag nicht ständig ermahnen. "Dann tauschen wir eben", sagt Papa. Und schon geht's los. Anatol geht für Papa ins Büro und Papa darf in den Kindergarten. Ob das gut geht? Von Das klingende Bilderbuch.

CAPTION 1903 BRUSSELSEscalating Hybrid Warfare In EuropeAnatol Lieven reports tensions flaring as rumors of discrete diplomatic missions and allegations of Russian hybrid warfare circulate in Europe. The Wall Street Journal reported a secret CIA meeting in Moscow to warn against attacking NATO, while Germany accused Russia of directing an armed drone at Leipzig airport. British cruise missiles striking Russian soil risk triggering severe Russian retaliation, a dangerous escalation that Cold War standards would have deemed insane. Domestically, newly appointed Prime Minister Burnham remains politically constrained, caught between calls for increased military spending and a split public, complicating Britain's international standing. (4)

CONTENTS JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW 8-27-2026.Anatol Lieven warns that foreign policy establishments in both the United States and Britain have embraced a dangerous militarism. He highlights how the Biden administration failed to rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran, seeking instead a harder bargain. Furthermore, Europe faces acute escalation risks over Ukraine; Russia has warned of retaliation against Britain for authorizing the use of Storm Shadow missiles inside Russian territory. Lieven cautions that British Prime Minister Burnham's domestic agenda could be destroyed if a stray British missile strikes a Russian civilian target, triggering a direct, retaliatory attack on British soil. (1)Peter Huessy argues that nuclear deterrence remains vital but requires continuous modernization of missiles, submarines, bombers, and command systems to match Russian and Chinese advancements. He explains that conventional defense fails against nuclear attacks in military war games. Huessy advocates for "counterforce" strategies—targeting an enemy's weapons and leadership rather than innocent civilian cities ("countervalue"). He also supports adding theater nuclear systems to deter Russia's "escalate to win" doctrine, which utilizes low-yield battlefield nuclear weapons to force a NATO stand-down. (2)Andrea Stricker discusses the concerning US-Saudi bilateral nuclear agreement, which triggers a 90-day congressional review. This pact opens the door to uranium enrichment on Saudi soil, setting a dangerous precedent that could spark a regional "domino effect." Additionally, Stricker highlights unresolved risks in Syria. Despite a US-brokered deal to turn over natural uranium metal, Syria's al-Qaeda-linked leadership intends to rebuild its civil nuclear program. She urges the US to enforce the complete removal of all nuclear material from Syria rather than giving extremists a pass. (3)Mary Anastasia O'Grady explains how the US is aggressively targeting Cuban regime elites by freezing assets and revoking visas. To facilitate the regime's collapse, O'Grady stresses that the US must present a viable post-collapse plan for "Day Zero" to avoid chaos, bloodshed, or oligarchic asset-grabbing. She advocates for securing property rights to encourage external investments and suggests using multilateral peacekeepers to maintain order. She supports a transitional board of Cuban-Americans and Americans to manage investments and prevent former military elites from seizing privatized state assets. (4)Conrad Black analyzes the impending trade dispute between Canada and the United States, labeled "the dumbest trade war ever." President Trump's comments describing Canada as a "51st state" and calling the Prime Minister "governor" have sparked deep resentment across Canada. Prime Minister Carney has ended negotiations and threatened retaliatory tariffs, securing tentative public support. However, the political opposition is demanding that Carney publish the underlying negotiation documents and recall parliament to build an all-party policy. Black argues this represents a moment of great risk but also a Churchillian opportunity. (5)Jane Rogoyska explores the history of Paris's Hôtel Lutetia, which served as a haven for fleeing Weimar intellectuals before becoming a Nazi military intelligence headquarters in 1940. Rogoyska traces waves of refugees fleeing Nazi persecution, including writers Heinrich Mann and Lion Feuchtwanger. These figures struggled to warn an indifferent Europe about the dangers of fascism. Despite personal tragedies and bureaucratic challenges, literary giants like James Joyce, Samuel Beckett, and Arthur Koestler frequented the hotel, carrying poison just in case they were captured. (6)Evan Ellis details how an unprecedented "super El Niño" is battering the Americas, causing floods in Peru and severe droughts affecting the Panama Canal. He outlines political developments, including Chile's struggle to finance aging copper mining infrastructure despite high global prices. In Venezuela, the "Rodrigato" gang leadership continues to slow-walk democratic reforms while benefiting from US-supervised oil sales. Colombia's new conservative president, de la Espriella, has prioritized security and pro-business reforms. Finally, in Panama, the US is expanding security efforts to counter persistent Chinese commercial and diplomatic encirclement. (7)

Anatol Lieven warns that foreign policy establishments in both the United States and Britain have embraced a dangerous militarism. He highlights how the Biden administration failed to rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran, seeking instead a harder bargain. Furthermore, Europe faces acute escalation risks over Ukraine; Russia has warned of retaliation against Britain for authorizing the use of Storm Shadow missiles inside Russian territory. Lieven cautions that British Prime Minister Burnham's domestic agenda could be destroyed if a stray British missile strikes a Russian civilian target, triggering a direct, retaliatory attack on British soil. (1)

Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft analyzes the multi-faceted, global strains of the Russia-Ukraine war. He discusses how Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian-adjacent sites like Sochi and the Wildberries warehouse aim to demoralize Russia, though historically such strategic bombing campaigns fail. Meanwhile, Russia is betting on a war of attrition, weaponizing Black Sea grain blockades to squeeze Ukraine's economy and strain global food supplies. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are triggering a worldwide energy crisis, while Western nations like the UK face economic paralyzation as they struggle to balance heavy defense commitments with severe domestic recessions. (1)

TABLE OF CONTENTS THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW 8-21-2026Anatol Lieven discusses the war in Ukraine, highlighting Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure like Black Sea resorts and a commercial center. He carefully examines the psychological impact of these infrastructure strikes, noting that while they aim to weaken Russian morale, history shows such strategies rarely succeed. Lieven describes growing domestic resentment over rampant government corruption, which threatens Western aid and has already led to several high-profile dismissals. Finally, he analyzes global energy and food security threats caused by port and refinery strikes, alongside Prime Minister Andy Burnham's struggle to balance costly military commitments with domestic recovery. (1)Peter Berkowitz reflects on the 30th anniversary of Alan Sokal's famous academic hoax, which exposed the intellectual decline within higher education humanities. Berkowitz critiques contemporary humanities departments for their ideological hypocrisy: professors claim objective truth is subjective while simultaneously insisting that their own political claims are absolute truths. He references a report from Vanderbilt and Washington University confirming that significant contingents of humanities faculty in core disciplines subordinate scholarship to political activism. Finally, Berkowitz notes that this progressive ideological capture is concentrated among college-educated voters in elite university towns, warning that treating education as political indoctrination severely perverts liberal education. (2)Mary Anastasia O'Grady discusses the alarming rise of authoritarianism in Mexico under President Claudia Sheinbaum and her ruling party, Morena. O'Grady details how the ruling party has systematically consolidated power by taking control of independent electoral bodies, tribunals, regulatory commissions, and the judiciary through politicized popular elections. She warns that Morena's latest effort targets television and radio—the primary sources of information for most Mexican citizens—to effectively censor critical independent media. While O'Grady deeply laments the weak leadership of the official political opposition, she finds hope in the strong pushback and widespread mobilization of Mexican civil society against these state controls. (3)Jonathan Miltimore discusses the ongoing imprisonment of 79-year-old pro-democracy publisher Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong, calling it the world's most overlooked story. Miltimore expresses his deep disappointment that Donald Trumpfailed to raise Lai's case publicly during his Beijing trip, instead repeating CCP rhetoric that Lai caused "bedlam." He describes Lai's deteriorating health inside his tiny, unventilated six-foot cell and urges President Trump to pressure Xi Jinping during his upcoming U.S. visit. Miltimore notes that even certain CCP factions want Lai released to avoid international outrage if he dies in prison, emphasizing that Lai is fully prepared for potential martyrdom. (4)Veronique de Rugy critiques California Representative Ro Khanna's proposal for a "one-time" 5% wealth tax on billionaires. De Rugy explains that several different European countries largely abandoned wealth taxes because they are administratively difficult, generate little revenue, and cause severe economic distortions. Highlighting a debate between Khanna and Mark Cuban, she details how taxing paper wealth completely ignores true liquidity, forcing entrepreneurs to sell shares of private companies or borrow against volatile collateral. De Rugy warns that wealth taxes inevitably expand to target middle-class citizens, ultimately costing states far more in lost income taxes than they retrieve from the wealthy. (5)Rohan Naidu discusses the groundbreaking discovery of "black hole stars" at cosmic dawn using the James Webb Space Telescope. Naidu explains that these infant objects appear as mysterious "little red dots" but possess hybrid properties of both highly luminous black holes and stars. He explains how a young black hole surrounded by dense hydrogen gas absorbs blue and green light, creating a signature "Balmer break" resembling the star Vega. Naidu outlines future research, including finding atmospheric chemical fingerprints like water, and using the newly proposed Celestemission alongside ground telescopes to directly image swirling gas feeding these infant black holes. (6)James M. Scott traces the dramatic, complex final months of World War II in the Pacific. Scott details how Secretary of War Henry Stimson briefed Truman in depth on the secret atomic bomb, and praises General Leslie Groves' masterful management of the Manhattan Project's secret cities. He describes Japan's political division: Emperor Hirohito secretly sought peace while militarists prepared a fanatical defense of Kyushu to force better terms. Scott explains the intense debate over demanding unconditional surrender versus preserving the Japanese monarchy, concluding with the Trinitytest, Potsdam Conference, and Truman's hope that the bomb's shock value would force surrender. (7)Evan Ellis analyzes key regional political and security developments in Latin America. Ellis discusses EcuadorianPresident Daniel Noboa's visit to China to secure security, trade, and economic assistance, and explains how historical visa-free policies turned Ecuador into a major transit corridor for Chinese migrants entering the US. He details Bolivia's ongoing political instability and the dangerous scandals involving Evo Morales. Ellis also covers Chile's border enforcement efforts, Colombia's return to aggressive military operations against cartels following a major earthquake, and the stalled democratic transitions in Venezuela and Nicaragua, where regimes rely on brutal repression and illicit economies to hold power. (8)This fuller eight-file version supersedes the earlier seven-file draft — de Rugy now sits at (5) and everything falls in place without gaps. The Celeste mission appears again in segment 6; the source calls it "newly proposed," which explains why I couldn't verify it earlier, so I've let it stand.

TABLE OF CONTENTS THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 8-23-3036.Anatol Lieven: The discussion highlights a dystopian shift in modern naval combat, where the Russian ghost fleet employs Mad Max tactics, using netting and spikes, to defend against Ukrainian drone attacks. Anatol Lieven describes a global spread of drone technology that threatens energy prices and international stability. Both Russia and Ukraine suffer from the illusion of an imminent total victory, despite a grinding stalemate in which Russia holds a stronger economic position because of its self-funded war effort while Ukraine remains dependent on precarious European aid. Lieven warns of a potential sea war escalation if Russia retaliates against the seizure of its ships, potentially drawing NATO and the US into a direct naval clash. The conversation also touches on British politics, noting that Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces immense pressure regarding immigration and military spending despite his desire to focus on domestic issues. (1)Mary Anastasia O'Grady, Wall Street Journal editorial board: Venezuela is grappling with the aftermath of severe earthquakes while navigating a complex political transition under the Trump administration's influence. Despite increased oil production, major oil companies are hesitant to invest because of a lack of contractual assurances, bureaucratic overreach, and the absence of a legitimate rule of law. Mary Anastasia O'Grady explains that the current provisional government, led by Delcy Rodríguez, is associated with the previous narco-terror regime, creating a transparency crisis regarding oil profits held in US escrow accounts. While the administration pursues a three-phase plan of stabilization, recovery, and a return to democracy, O'Grady argues the regime is simply buying time to stay in power. As long as oil prices remain high and the US is preoccupied with conflicts in the Middle East, the illegitimate regime has little incentive to hold the free and fair elections demanded by popular opposition leader María Corina Machado. (2)Veronique de Rugy: Veronique de Rugy critiques the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, commonly known as the Jones Act, which requires cargo moved between American ports to be transported on ships that are US-built, US-owned, and US-crewed. Originally intended to protect the American merchant marine after World War I, the act has instead caused domestic shipbuilding costs to skyrocket, making American vessels four to five times more expensive than those built in Asia. Consequently, the US fleet has dwindled, and consumers face higher prices for goods as transportation shifts to more polluting methods such as trucking. Despite its failure to achieve its stated goals, the act is sustained by special interests, including unions and specific shipyards, which exert significant political influence. Current efforts to maintain waivers for energy and fertilizer transportation are facing strong opposition from 52 House Republicans. (3)Craig Unger: Craig Unger explores a sidetracked FBI counterintelligence investigation into Donald Trump's decades-long ties to Russian interests. Unlike criminal inquiries, counterintelligence investigations focus on national security breaches and the laundering of influence, even when no explicit crime is proven. Unger asserts that Russian mafia figures, acting as adjuncts to state intelligence, began bailing out Trump's failing real estate ventures as early as 1984. These transactions, often involving cash purchases of condominiums in Trump Tower, allegedly turned the former president into an asset of Russian intelligence. Unger argues that the Robert Mueller investigation was a dud because it focused narrowly on criminal acts rather than this broader compromise. The discussion concludes by noting Trump's consistent, long-standing hostility toward NATO, which Unger says mirrors Soviet-era talking points and raises ongoing concerns regarding US national security. (4)Graham McAleer: Pope Leo has issued a bold encyclical addressing the ethical and social threats posed by artificial intelligence. Graham McAleer explains that the Pope uses the biblical image of Nimrod and the Tower of Babel to characterize AI as a manifestation of human darkness and godlike pride. A primary concern is the asymmetry of wealth, in which a small, secretive class of Silicon Valley oligarchs controls a technology that operates largely outside state law. While the Church acknowledges AI's potential benefits in medicine and education, it warns that the oligarchic structure of the industry challenges state power and treats users as livestock for data farming. The Pope explicitly calls for government regulation to protect human dignity, yet McAleer notes the fundamental contradiction of expecting the state to control private entities that have already become more powerful than many governments. (5)Alex Wright — Multi-Part, Part One: Alex Wright, author of Empire of Ink: The Printers and Radicals Who Invented the American Newspaper, details the uniquely American invention of the newspaper, beginning with Mary Katherine Goddard's printing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776. Early printing was a grueling, high-status trade where printer's devils, or apprentices, worked with lead and ink balls. Technological evolution was driven by necessity; rag shortages in the nineteenth century led to bizarre experiments, including turning imported Egyptian mummy linen into paper. The Penny Press, pioneered by Benjamin Day, revolutionized the industry by catering to the working class with tabloids and hoaxes, much to the horror of elitists such as Charles Dickens. Wright emphasizes that early American journalism thrived on a sharing economy in which newspapers were exempted from copyright and postal subsidies encouraged editors to cut and paste each other's work, effectively networking the young nation together. (6)Evan Ellis, US Army War College and a State Department voice: Professor Evan Ellis provides a comprehensive update on Latin American stability, starting with Chile's President Kast, who is tackling immigration and the rise of gangs such as Tren de Aragua while balancing economic ties with China. In Colombia, President De la Espriella is implementing a hardline approach against narco-terrorists following a devastating 7.4 earthquake. The situation in Venezuela remains critical; while oil production has increased to 1.16 million barrels per day, there is zero transparency regarding the $13 million in monthly profits allegedly flowing to the Rodríguez gangsters. Opposition leader Dinora Figueroa is negotiating a gradual return to trust, but the regime shows no intention of relinquishing power. Finally, Ellis notes that El Niño poses a severe threat of drought to the Panama Canal, which will likely disrupt international shipping and further strain regional economies. (7)Wright's Part Two runs tomorrow and takes its own tail in that day's sequence.

Anatol Lieven: The discussion highlights a dystopian shift in modern naval combat, where the Russian ghost fleet employs Mad Max tactics, using netting and spikes, to defend against Ukrainian drone attacks. Anatol Lieven describes a global spread of drone technology that threatens energy prices and international stability. Both Russia and Ukraine suffer from the illusion of an imminent total victory, despite a grinding stalemate in which Russia holds a stronger economic position because of its self-funded war effort while Ukraine remains dependent on precarious European aid. Lieven warns of a potential sea war escalation if Russia retaliates against the seizure of its ships, potentially drawing NATO and the US into a direct naval clash. The conversation also touches on British politics, noting that Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces immense pressure regarding immigration and military spending despite his desire to focus on domestic issues. (1)

C Lieven expresses skepticism regarding Russian influence in German elections, noting that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is genuinely popular due to anti-immigration stances and skepticism toward funding Ukraine. Meanwhile, the UK faces budget constraints that hinder promised military spending increases. A migration crisis involving thousands of people attempting to enter EU territory from Morocco has triggered emergency meetings. Nationalist parties in Europe may move toward total immigration bans to satisfy their core supporters. (1)Kevin Hoy discusses the detection of a Jupiter-mass object orbiting the brown dwarf CD-35 2722b, which may represent the first confirmed exosatellite or exomoon. Using the radial velocity method, researchers identified a "wobble" in the spectrum of the brown dwarf, indicating a secondary body in a highly eccentric 170-day orbit. This discovery is a significant milestone for astrophysics, as it helps scientists understand planetary formation processes outside our solar system. Hoy explains that such objects are difficult to find because technology is often limited by the brightness and proximity of host stars. Future mapping of nearby systems could involve high-power radar technology. (2)Evan Ellis explores the landscape of Uruguay, a stable country navigating the trade interests of its neighbors, Brazil and Argentina. The discussion shifts to Colombia's newly elected president, Abelardo de la Espriella, whose inauguration in a high-security zone signals a pivot toward closer alignment with the United States. Ellis also addresses the complex situation in Venezuela, where the U.S. is negotiating with the relatively unknown Dinorah Figuera rather than more prominent opposition figures. Regional stability is further threatened by an explosion of homicides in Uruguay and the presence of millions of Venezuelan refugees in Colombia. (3)Bradley Bowman warns of the unprecedented military cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, documented in 616 instances of security collaboration. Russia has transferred advanced technology, such as Su-35 fighters and submarine quieting techniques, to China to secure support for its war in Ukraine. Simultaneously, Iran provides drones and targeting data to help Russia strike Ukrainian targets and U.S. forces in the Middle East. North Korea has supplied thousands of soldiers and munitions to the European front. Bowman emphasizes that the U.S. defense industrial base is currently a shadow of its World War II capacity. (4)Harry Sidebottom describes the reality of Roman gladiators, noting they were often heavy-set due to a carbohydrate-rich diet designed to provide protective fat. These fighters were glamorous figures who enacted Roman virtues of courage and physical strength for the public. While many were slaves or prisoners, others were free men who volunteered to escape grinding poverty. Most gladiators fought only once or twice a year, with a survival rate of roughly seven in eight. The segment also notes a rare historical instance where a Roman audience felt sympathy for elephants being massacred in the arena. (5)Peter Berkowitz analyzes the work of Professor Patrick Deneen, who argues that liberal democracy is a "curse" that has atomized American society. Deneen presents contradictory accounts of whether liberalism was a founding principle or a 20th-century imposition. He advocates for a "regime change" toward a pre-liberal order that prioritizes biblical faith and classical virtue over individual rights. Berkowitz notes that Deneen's ideas have influenced figures like Vice President JD Vance, who has publicly endorsed Deneen's work. The critique suggests that Machiavellian means and state coercion may be necessary to restore a Christian foundation to the nation. (6)Jack Burnham explains the FCC's efforts to prohibit military-grade, foreign-produced drones, specifically targeting Chinese firms like DJI due to security concerns. These "dual-use" systems are defined by their ability to carry heavy loads and utilize advanced sensor arrays. A significant security gap exists because critical infrastructure like power grids and hospitals lacks the same protections afforded to airports and military bases. Burnham cites a 2024 arrest of a man flying an unregistered drone over Vandenberg Space Force Base in California as evidence of the threat. The Trumpadministration has issued executive orders to secure American airspace from unidentified objects. (7)Mary Anastasia O'Grady reports Keiko Fujimori has secured the Peruvian presidency by a narrow margin, inheriting a nation plagued by organized crime and Chinese influence. Fujimori faces an immediate crisis with the expected arrival of El Niño in September, which threatens the fishing industry and may cause floods. Transnational criminal organizations involved in extortion and illegal mining present a strategic threat to property rights and small businesses. Additionally, China's construction of the Chancay port and heavy mining investments have granted Beijing significant political leverage. Fujimori must now balance these economic realities while attempting to restore the rule of law. (8)Corrections applied: Mary Anastasia O'Grady as directed; Abelardo de la Espriella (transcribed as "Delospria," segment 3 — matching prior batches); and Patrick Deneen (transcribed as "Denine," segment 6 — the Notre Dame political theorist). One to flag: Kevin Hoy (segment 2) — I couldn't verify this astronomer's name, and the brown dwarf designation (rendered as "CD352722b," which I've set as CD-35 2722b) suggests the transcription may be rough. Worth checking against the booking sheet.

Anatol Lieven reports the conflict in Ukraine has devolved into a war of infrastructure, with Ukraine targeting Russianretail warehouses while Russia destroys Ukrainian road transport and blocks the port of Odesa. Lieven expresses skepticism regarding Russian influence in German elections, noting that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is genuinely popular due to anti-immigration stances and skepticism toward funding Ukraine. Meanwhile, the UK faces budget constraints that hinder promised military spending increases. A migration crisis involving thousands of people attempting to enter EU territory from Morocco has triggered emergency meetings. Nationalist parties in Europe may move toward total immigration bans to satisfy their core supporters. (1)Anatol Lieven reports the conflict in Ukraine has devolved into a war of infrastructure, with Ukraine targeting Russianretail warehouses while Russia destroys Ukrainian road transport and blocks the port of Odesa. Lieven expresses skepticism regarding Russian influence in German elections, noting that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is genuinely popular due to anti-immigration stances and skepticism toward funding Ukraine. Meanwhile, the UK faces budget constraints that hinder promised military spending increases. A migration crisis involving thousands of people attempting to enter EU territory from Morocco has triggered emergency meetings. Nationalist parties in Europe may move toward total immigration bans to satisfy their core supporters. (1)

Anatol Lieven examines how the Ukraine and Iran conflicts are merging into one global struggle following a Ukrainiandrone strike on an Iranian vessel. This escalation threatens global energy supplies of refined oil products, as Russianrefineries struggle with capacity. While Ukraine targets the Russian middle class to undermine support for the war, Lieven warns of a widening proxy war involving China, North Korea, and Iran. (5)

Anatol Lieven turns to Britain's new political era under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who is described as the Labour Party's "last chance" to address a discredited government. Burnham faces immense financial pressure, particularly regarding the costs of healthcare for the elderly and dementia. To succeed, he may need to pivot from "Net Zero" policies to prioritize energy needs and seek a new mandate through an election. (6)

Anatol Lieven warns the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are converging into a global energy crisis, with refined oil products like diesel in short supply. Ukrainian drone attacks have severely damaged Russia's refining capacity, while US refineries struggle to keep pace. Leadership instability in Kyiv, including the dismissal of the defense minister, further complicates the war effort. Meanwhile, Houthi threats against Saudi tankers jeopardize the world's ability to secure reliable oil exports. (13)1918

Anatol Lieven assesses new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who faces a country demanding increased spending on health, prisons, and defense despite rising debt costs. While popular for his management of Manchester's transport system, he must navigate radical tax proposals targeting millionaires to raise revenue. Burnham is under pressure to resolve the "net zero" debate and potentially expand North Sea fracking to lower energy prices. He remains wary of reopening the divisive Brexit debate. (14)

Anatol Lieven discusses the reinforcement of Ukraine following NATO meetings, highlighting German drone supplies and the symbolic value of US Patriot systems. While Baltic states fear imminent Russian provocations, Lieven argues Russia's army is currently too "bogged down" in Ukraine to risk a direct war with NATO. (1)1810 BRUSSSELS

Anatol Lieven analyzes the potential premiership of Mr. Burnham as he navigates pressures within the Labour Party. The discussion covers challenges like electoral reform, the rise of the Reform Party, and scandals. Burnham may avoid an immediate election to protect Labour's majority while opposition support fluctuates. (2)1900 BRUSSELS

Anatol Lieven discusses the impact of the Ukraine war on Russian consumers and potential peace terms. He suggests Russia might settle if it abandons Donbass demands, provided the West bars Ukrainian NATO membership. Currently, the Russian military is advancing slowly while enduring huge casualties and economic suffering. (1)1899 CUBA

Anatol Lieven explores a potential peace compromise and the risks of escalation. He notes that while Ukraine can make Russia suffer via drone strikes on energy infrastructure, aerial bombardment alone will not force a surrender. A single miscalculation could lead to a direct clash between Russia and NATO. (2)1956

Preview for Later Today: Anatol Lieven examines the Russia-Ukraine conflict and NATO's cautious escalation. He discusses the supply of Patriot missiles and the risks of direct military clashes, noting that both sides face internal pressure to achieve victory. (3)1892 WEST SIBERIAN RAILWAY

Anatol Lieven is a British author, journalist, and policy analyst. Dr. Lieven is a visiting professor at King's College London, and is a senior fellow and the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He is currently based in Washington, D.C. Lieven is author of several books on Russia and its neighbors including The Baltic Revolutions: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Path to Independence, also Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian Power? (Yale University Press, 1998), and Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry (US Institute of Peace, 1999).

Anatol Lieven discusses Vladimir Putin's public admission that Ukrainian drone strikes are causing significant difficulties and a loss of refining capacity. While Putin remains in charge, he faces pressure from hawks and doves regarding escalation. Despite successful drone campaigns, the battlefield in the Donbass remains stagnant. (7)1918 ROSTOV ON DON

Preview: Anatol Lieven examines Putin's leadership following Ukrainian infrastructure attacks. Putin remains in charge while navigating pressure between hawks demanding radical escalation and doves seeking a peace settlement, essentially trying to kick the ball down the road.

Two views from Behind the News regulars on the US-Iran negotiations: Anatol Lieven and Mouin Rabbani. Behind the News, hosted by Doug Henwood, covers the worlds of economics and politics and their complex interactions, from the local to the global.

Diplomatic Strains and Escalation Risks in Ukraine. Guest: Anatol Lieven. European leaders are divided over initiating direct negotiations with Russia as the war remains stuck on the ground. While some advocate for offering Putina "golden bridge" to claim a symbolic victory, others argue for continued pressure, despite the constant risks of accidental or nuclear escalation. 13MOSCOW REGION

The Rise of Andy Burnham in UK Politics. Guest: Anatol Lieven. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is emerging as a formidable potential successor to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Though Burnham enjoys strong regional support, he faces daunting national issues, including the funding crisis in the NHS and Britain's inability to borrow like the United States. 141918```

Anatol Lieven discusses NATO's top US commander, General Grynkewich, who states Russia is not looking for conflict despite European concerns about US military withdrawals. Lieven agrees, noting that the Russian army is bogged down in Ukraine, making a deliberate attack on NATO members like the Baltics appear militarily absurd. (1)1919

Anatol Lieven examines rising anti-immigrant tensions in the United Kingdom, where violent demonstrations in Belfastand England highlight growing public anger toward sudden demographic changes and crimes allegedly committed by asylum seekers. Lieven suggests these tensions are politically explosive, potentially forcing a leadership change in the Labour Party if right-wing parties continue to gain ground. (2)1919

Preview for Later Today: Anatol Lieven highlights escalating violence in Northern Ireland and England aimed at immigrants. Public anger stems from high-profile crimes committed by asylum seekers, impacting social stability in once-homogeneous local communities.1909

Anatol Lieven analyzes Ukrainian drone strikes on St. Petersburg, which damaged energy infrastructure and embarrassed the Kremlin during an economic forum. Lieven observes that the war has evolved into a "battle of drones," undermining Russia's imperial image and increasing internal pressure on Putin as his original strategic goals remain unfulfilled.

Anatol Lieven discusses the civil unrest following the murder of Henry Novak in England. He critiques the police response and explains how Nigel Farage is exploiting the tragedy to fuel nationalist sentiment. Additionally, Lievenassesses the political decline of Keir Starmer and the potential rise of Andy Burnham.1943 STORK CLUB

Preview for Later Today: Anatol Lieven analyzes the stalemate in Ukraine, highlighting the exhaustion of both populations and the political unpopularity of mass conscription, even as leadership on both sides maintains maximalist positions regarding the ongoing war.1930 LONDN

(2) Anatol Lieven examines the struggle for UK Labour Party leadership, where Andy Burnham is the preferred candidate to replace Keir Starmer but must first win a by-election. The rising Reform Party poses a significant threat to established political figures.CARTHAGE

(1) Anatol Lieven discusses Moscow's escalation and the future of Ukraine negotiations, noting that Russia has threatened targeted strikes on Ukrainian headquarters in Kyiv. High casualty rates and stalled front lines contribute to a mood of frustration in Moscow.18991

Following meetings in Beijing, Vladimir Putin seeks to finalize a gas pipeline to China to offset lost European markets. Anatol Lieven notes that while trade in dual-use technology grows, China remains cautious about full military escalation. Russia's involvement in the Iran and Ukraine wars complicates its position, as it lacks spare weaponry for Iran. (2/16)1900

Anatol Lieven discusses the resignation of Latvia's Prime Minister following air defense failures. Ukrainian drones targeting Russia have been transiting Baltic airspace, leading to Russian threats of retaliation. Lieven explores the risk of unintended escalation between NATO and Russia amidst suspicions of Baltic-Ukrainian cooperation regarding these drone flight paths. (1/16)

Anatol Lieven details the internal rebellion against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Following poor election results, rival Wes Streeting's resignation signals a broader challenge for party control and the future of leadership. (2/16)1920 CHARLESTON SC

Anatol Lieven explores the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, focusing on China's economic shifts and the precarious nature of Taiwan's independence, which remains a primary flashpoint for potential war. (1/16)SOUTH CAROLINA

PREVIEW for Later Today: Anatol Lieven analyzes turmoil within the Labour Party, focusing on MP Wes Streeting'smove to challenge Keir Starmer. Streeting's timing is influenced by poor election results and the potential exoneration of rival Angela Rayner.1901 COMMONS

STREAMING MAKING OF JBS, FEATURING JIM MCTAGUE AND ANATOL LIEVEN, 5-7-2026.1948? BERLINThis transcript features a wide-ranging conversation between host John Bachelor and journalist Jim McTag regarding the evolution of storytelling and technology. The dialogue begins with a critique of metafiction and the shift in the publishing industry toward digital distribution and family sagas. A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the practical applications of AI, with the speakers comparing different platforms like Gemini and Grok for creative work such as cartooning. The participants also analyze current global economic pressures, specifically rising oil prices, the "fog of war" in the Middle East, and the rapid expansion of AI data centers impacting real estate in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. The segment concludes with brief, interrupted attempts to interview Anatol Lieven about the geopolitical tensions surrounding China, Taiwan, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Anatol Lieven analyzes China's diplomatic strategy, noting Beijing's desire for a Trump-Xi summit despite Middle Eastern conflicts. China aims to manage trade tariffs and stabilize Taiwan relations, believing that U.S. involvement in external wars may ultimately weaken American alliances in Asia and strengthen China's regional standing. (9/16)1942

Anatol Lieven analyzes reports of Vladimir Putin operating from bunkers to avoid precision strikes. He discusses Ukraine's emergence as a "drone war startup" and the resulting economic strain. Lieven notes that while the frontline remains frozen, Russian public support for the conflict is beginning to crumble. (10/16)1938 HITLERJUGEND

PREVIEW for Later Today: Anatol Lieven explores Chinese perspectives on a potential Trump visit and regional conflicts. China anticipates that economic strain from the Iran war may ultimately weaken American alliances in Asia, facilitating future Chinese regional leadership.

1. Guest: Anatol Lieven. Lieven discusses the Middle East crisis, noting Russia benefits from rising oil prices while China fears global economic instability. Future concerns include potential US retaliation against Europe regarding Ukraine aid and Greenland, alongside upcoming tariff negotiations between President Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing. 11905 HOLLYWOOD HOTEL

2. Guest: Anatol Lieven. Lieven analyzes UK politics, characterizing Prime Minister Keir Starmer as a "dead man walking" due to record low popularity and scandals involving Lord Mandelson. Regarding Ukraine, he suggests they are achieving a qualified victory by holding the line, though long-term survival is threatened by manpower and funding shortages. 21905 DELONGPRE MANSE

Preview: Anatol Lieven discusses European fears regarding a potential Trump administration. Concerns include retaliatory cuts to Ukrainian military aid and intelligence, or extreme actions like seizing Greenland, which could shatter the NATO alliance.1912 OTTAWA

STREAM MAKING OF THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, FEATURING JIM MCTAGUE, ANATOL LIEVEN,  4-16-2026.1880 FRENCH IRONCLAD MAGENTA.The current global landscape is defined by a profound disconnect between market optimism and geopolitical instability. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have recently seen "rally mode," this "bullishness" is described as "irrational exuberance" in the face of ongoing violence in Eurasia. Jim McTague argues that the market is in a bubble, predicting a 30% downside retreat before the end of May as "black swans" like the conflict in the Middle East begin to frighten investors.A primary catalyst for this potential economic "stampede" is the disruption of critical energy corridors, specifically the Strait of Hormuz and Baba Mandeb. Saudi Arabia, which previously encouraged military pressure on Iran, has recently signaled a desire for the U.S. to "back off" as it realizes its own oil pipelines to the Red Sea are vulnerable to Houthi violence. If these waterways remain shut down, oil revenues for Gulf states—which rely on these routes for 70% to 90% of their income—will collapse, likely triggering a global recession.Simultaneously, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being used by major corporations as a "convenient excuse" for significant layoffs, even as it remains a "primitive tool" prone to frequent errors. While 30% of the general public expects large-scale job losses, institutional investors view these cuts as strategic cost-cutting rather than a broader labor market warning. The fear of AI-driven displacement is particularly acute among younger generations, leading some to predict a future defined by either "demagogues" exploiting unemployment or a new era of forced leisure. Currently, AI functions more as a "drawing partner" or administrative assistant that still requires a human "editor and proofreader" to manage its "hallucinations" and mistakes.In Europe, the political tide may be turning following a resounding rebuke of Victor Orban in the Hungarian elections. The victory of Peter Magyar is seen as "good news" for Ukraine, as it removes a major block to a 90-billion-euro EU loan package. However, European economies remain fragile, with governments in Germany and France heavily subsidizing gas prices to prevent political upheaval from far-right parties like the AFD.Finally, the international order is under strain as China's patience with the U.S. and Israel wears thin due to the economic damage caused by the Iran conflict. Similarly, the "special relationship" between the UK and the US is facing a "national humiliation" as King Charles prepares to visit a Washington administration that has been openly insulting to British leadership. Amidst this 21st-century chaos, the sources recall the 17th-century painter Johannes Vermeer, whose work emerged from a similar era of religious war to promote a "liberal tradition" of tolerance that remains the foundation of modern society.

Preview for Later TodayAnatol Lieven examines how Viktor Orbán's exit lifts the block on EU aid for Ukraine. While the loan may proceed, regional instability and potential recession threaten Europe's economic stability and debt.1930 BUDAPEST

3. Anatol Lieven evaluates Hungary's election, where Peter Magyar defeated Viktor Orbán. This victory could lift blocks on Ukrainian aid, though Hungary remains dependent on Russian energy and faces European economic hurdles.1884 DANISH IRONCLAD NORDENSKJOLD