Podcast appearances and mentions of evan ellis

2-19-261970 IRAN The European Left and the Ukraine Conflict. John Batchelor and Anatol Lieven discuss the European left's evolving stance on the Ukraine war. Facing economic strain, radical leftist parties are prioritizing peace and domestic issues over punishing Russia, driven by historical anti-NATO sentiments and deep skepticism toward European military expansion and the United States. #1 Negotiated Settlements and Expanding Security States. Anatol Lieven explains the European left's growing concerns about the Ukraine war fueling authoritarian security and surveillance measures. While a negotiated settlement requiring Ukraine to surrender the Donbas seems impossible in Kyiv, the conflict risks becoming a prolonged war of attrition dictated by modern drone warfare. #2 Truman, the Fed, and the 1951 Accord. Professor John Cochrane explores the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accordduring the Korean War. Fearing another World War II-style crisis, President Harry Truman pressured FedChairman Thomas McCabe to keep interest rates low. Instead, the Fed fought for its independence to combat inflation, establishing modern monetary policy precedents. #3 Modern Lessons from the Fed-Treasury Accord. Drawing parallels between 1951 and today, John Cochraneexamines the tension between presidential administrations and the Federal Reserve during crises. He emphasizes that the Fed must maintain its independence, warning against perpetually funding government spending and urging a strict focus on inflation control over politically motivated easy money. #4 Peru's Political Crisis and Chinese Influence. Professor Evan Ellis details Peru's chronic political instability following the appointment of its eighth president in eight years. Amidst endemic corruption and a fragmented Congress, the nation is deeply intertwined with Chinese investments, particularly in telecommunications, mining, and the strategically vital, Chinese-controlled deep-water port of Chancay. #5 Cuba's Severe Energy and Economic Collapse. Evan Ellis describes the catastrophic collapse of Cuba'seconomy. Cut off from Venezuelan and Mexican oil, the island faces severe rationing, blackouts, halted public services, and completely collapsed tourism. With millions fleeing the dire conditions, the communist regime's survival is heavily strained as basic resources fail. #6 Border Drone Threats, USMCA, and Venezuela. Evan Ellis discusses the closure of El Paso's airspace due to sophisticated cartel drones. He also highlights the critical necessity of renegotiating the USMCA to preserve Mexico's economy and cooperative security posture. Finally, he notes a surprising US military delegation visit to negotiate with Venezuela's Maduro regime. #7 Guyana's Massive Oil Boom. Evan Ellis highlights the profound economic transformation of Guyana following the discovery of billions of barrels of light, sweet crude oil. Driven by massive investments from ExxonMobil and Chevron, the South American nation serves as a prime example of effective management and foreign partnerships generating transformative national wealth. #8 Israel's Initial Response to the October 7 Atrocities. Following the horrific October 7 attacks by Hamas, Israelileaders reacted with understandable outrage and mobilized forcefully to neutralize the threat. While Hamas is currently severely degraded militarily and controls less territory, the group remains armed and continues to pose an ongoing security challenge fueled by Iranian backing. #9Defining Israel's Deep Political and Demographic Divides. Peter Berkowitz clarifies crucial definitions in Israelipolitics, explaining why a one-state solution would destroy Israel's democratic and Jewish character. He outlines how traditional left-right divisions have morphed into pro- or anti-Netanyahu factions, heavily influenced by religious demographics and the ultra-Orthodox community's contentious role in military service. #10Trump's Middle East Legacy and Israel's Judicial Crisis. Examining the Trump administration's lasting diplomatic legacy, Peter Berkowitz praises the embassy move to Jerusalem, the withdrawal from the flawed Iran deal, and the strategic Abraham Accords. He also analyzes Israel's internal turmoil over its overly activist Supreme Court, which sparked mass protests prior to the ongoing war. #11Confronting the Ignorance Fueling Anti-Israel Protests. Dismantling the arguments of global anti-Israel protesters, Peter Berkowitz highlights their culpable ignorance regarding Israel's defensive sovereignty. He refutes false accusations of colonialism, exposing how Hamas deliberately uses Palestinian civilians as human shields and actively seeks to destroy both the Jewish state and broader Western democratic civilization. #12Viktor Orban's Dangerous Alliances with Russia and China. Facing domestic electoral pressures, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban manipulatively courts the Trump administration while deepening dangerous alliances with Russia and China. Ivana Stradner explains that Orban leverages these relationships to project global relevance and maintain power, falsely claiming that Hungary is a victim of unavoidable Russian energy dependence. #13Bangladesh's Political Turmoil and Rising Islamist Influence. Following the violent ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh faces severe political and economic instability under Tariq Rahman. Sadanand Dhume warns of a concerning Islamic revival, highlighting the growing parliamentary power of the radical Jamaat-e-Islami movement and the critical need to pragmatically repair fractured diplomatic relations with India. #14Justice Scalia and the Unitary Executive Theory. Reflecting on Justice Antonin Scalia's legacy, Professor John Yoodetails the concept of the unitary executive. Scalia powerfully argued that the Constitution vests all executive power directly in the president, warning that independent agencies fragment federal authority, diminish democratic accountability, and disrupt the essential separation of powers. #15The Supreme Court's Threat to Independent Agencies. Analyzing upcoming Supreme Court cases, John Yoopredicts the potential overturning of the historic Humphrey's Executor precedent. Such a ruling would fundamentally dismantle the protections shielding independent agencies like the Federal Trade Commission from direct presidential control, sparking a massive structural revolution within the federal government's executive branch. #16

Preview for later today. Professor Evan Ellis examines Guyana's remarkable economic transformation driven by massive oil discoveries, suggesting its successful wealth management offers a valuable lesson for neighboring Venezuelaas it rebuilds.1930 GEORGETOWN GUYANA

Peru's Political Crisis and Chinese Influence. Professor Evan Ellis details Peru's chronic political instability following the appointment of its eighth president in eight years. Amidst endemic corruption and a fragmented Congress, the nation is deeply intertwined with Chinese investments, particularly in telecommunications, mining, and the strategically vital, Chinese-controlled deep-water port of Chancay. #51918 SPANISH FLU

Cuba's Severe Energy and Economic Collapse. Evan Ellis describes the catastrophic collapse of Cuba's economy. Cut off from Venezuelan and Mexican oil, the island faces severe rationing, blackouts, halted public services, and completely collapsed tourism. With millions fleeing the dire conditions, the communist regime's survival is heavily strained as basic resources fail. #61918 MT LEBANON

Border Drone Threats, USMCA, and Venezuela. Evan Ellis discusses the closure of El Paso's airspace due to sophisticated cartel drones. He also highlights the critical necessity of renegotiating the USMCA to preserve Mexico'seconomy and cooperative security posture. Finally, he notes a surprising US military delegation visit to negotiate with Venezuela's Maduro regime. #71918 BELLEAU WOOD

Guyana's Massive Oil Boom. Evan Ellis highlights the profound economic transformation of Guyana following the discovery of billions of barrels of light, sweet crude oil. Driven by massive investments from ExxonMobil and Chevron, the South American nation serves as a prime example of effective management and foreign partnerships generating transformative national wealth. #81925 GUYANA

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis analyzes the growing threat of Mexican cartel drones at the border and Mexico'seconomic reliance on USMCA trade negotiations amidst security concerns.1647

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis reports on Venezuela's regime arresting opposition figures while simultaneously navigating oil deals and appearing to cooperate with the U.S. to maintain power.1950 CARACAS

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis discusses Chinese control of Peru's Chancay port, Mia Mottley's victory in Barbados, and Cuba's desperate energy crisis forcing potential concessions to the U.S.1935

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis describes Guatemala's security crisis involving gang control of prisons, President Arévalo's governance struggles, and continued cooperation with the U.S. on migration enforcement.1895 PUERTO RICO

Con ocasión del primer mes de la captura de Maduro por parte de Estados Unidos, preguntamos a dos especialistas si la administración Trump está logrando las etapas que había detallado el secretario de Estado Marco Rubio para la era pos-Maduro: estabilización, recuperación económica, reconciliación y transición. Entrevistados: Evan Ellis, profesor del Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos de la Escuela de Guerra del Ejército de los Estados Unidos, y el diplomático Víctor Rodríguez Cedeño. El tema de la transición en Venezuela fue abordado por la jefa de la misión estadounidense en Caracas, Laura Dogu, en la reunión que sostuvo la víspera con la presidenta encargada, Delcy Rodríguez. En una publicación en X, la embajadora Laura Dogu indicó que presentó las fases que diseñó el jefe de la diplomacia estadounidense, Marco Rubio, para Venezuela: "estabilización, recuperación económica y reconciliación, y transición". Maduro fue depuesto y capturado por fuerzas estadounidenses, que bombardearon la capital venezolana y regiones vecinas el pasado 3 de enero. Un mes después, ¿se puede decir que se empiezan a observar cambios estructurales hacia la transición democrática del país? Las etapas señaladas por Rubio están teniendo "una suerte dispar", según Evan Ellis, profesor investigador de estudios latinoamericanos en el Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos de la Escuela de Guerra del Ejército de los Estados Unidos. Dudas sobre la transición   "La estabilidad, por ahora, se ha logrado. Por ahora se ha evitado una campaña de terrorismo por parte de los criminales, los cuales podrían temer perder sus posiciones. En cuanto a la reactivación, yo creo que estamos haciendo lo fácil, es decir, entregas de petróleo, operaciones que requieren una inversión limitada, operaciones menores, etc. Vamos a ver que se realizan ciertas cosas fáciles, lo que da una apertura limitada. Pero no van a regresar los 9 millones de venezolanos, ni van a reactivar la economía, ni vamos a restaurar los 8 millones de barriles de petróleo al día prometidos por Hugo Chávez. Y en cuanto a esa tercera parte, transición, creo que esto es quizás lo más improbable. Creo que vamos a volver al juego que Jorge Rodríguez y otros ya jugaron con la administración Biden, con Juan González [principal asesor del presidente Biden para América Latina], con muchas otras personas antes, y esto desde siempre. Yo tengo mis dudas sobre hasta cuándo vamos a llegar en esta transición, lo cual es una etapa muy importante para los venezolanos". En cuanto al impacto en la región, el diplomático Víctor Rodríguez Cedeño (exrepresentante de Venezuela ante la ONU) afirma que la extracción de Maduro viene a destapar que la situación venezolana no era un problema exclusivo de los venezolanos. También ha demostrado que tiene un impacto hemisférico-regional en materia de seguridad, migración y economía. Posible impacto en Cuba y Nicaragua  "Hemos visto cómo en el proceso de democratización de la región Venezuela juega un papel importante. Ahí tenemos ya, por ejemplo, los anuncios políticos en relación con Cuba y Nicaragua. Creo que ha habido un avance importante también [con esos países]. Eso es lo que ha permitido incluso que algunos gobiernos de países como Brasil y Colombia, por ejemplo, que han sido muy radicales a favor de Maduro, no hayan sido tan críticos extremos con la posición de los Estados Unidos, la cual ha sido totalmente novedosa con respecto a lo que está sucediendo en Venezuela. Es la primera transición, un proceso de transición inédito en el sentido de que las partes trabajan, pero es un proceso impuesto más bien por un actor externo". Desde el pasado 3 de enero, Venezuela apunta a un horizonte incierto en mitad de una fase intermedia, abierta y dependiente de los Estados Unidos. Mientras, millones de venezolanos que migraron dudan en regresar al país, planteándose si esta nueva etapa atiende realmente a una transición democrática o a una reconfiguración del poder interno.

Con ocasión del primer mes de la captura de Maduro por parte de Estados Unidos, preguntamos a dos especialistas si la administración Trump está logrando las etapas que había detallado el secretario de Estado Marco Rubio para la era pos-Maduro: estabilización, recuperación económica, reconciliación y transición. Entrevistados: Evan Ellis, profesor del Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos de la Escuela de Guerra del Ejército de los Estados Unidos, y el diplomático Víctor Rodríguez Cedeño. El tema de la transición en Venezuela fue abordado por la jefa de la misión estadounidense en Caracas, Laura Dogu, en la reunión que sostuvo la víspera con la presidenta encargada, Delcy Rodríguez. En una publicación en X, la embajadora Laura Dogu indicó que presentó las fases que diseñó el jefe de la diplomacia estadounidense, Marco Rubio, para Venezuela: "estabilización, recuperación económica y reconciliación, y transición". Maduro fue depuesto y capturado por fuerzas estadounidenses, que bombardearon la capital venezolana y regiones vecinas el pasado 3 de enero. Un mes después, ¿se puede decir que se empiezan a observar cambios estructurales hacia la transición democrática del país? Las etapas señaladas por Rubio están teniendo "una suerte dispar", según Evan Ellis, profesor investigador de estudios latinoamericanos en el Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos de la Escuela de Guerra del Ejército de los Estados Unidos. Dudas sobre la transición   "La estabilidad, por ahora, se ha logrado. Por ahora se ha evitado una campaña de terrorismo por parte de los criminales, los cuales podrían temer perder sus posiciones. En cuanto a la reactivación, yo creo que estamos haciendo lo fácil, es decir, entregas de petróleo, operaciones que requieren una inversión limitada, operaciones menores, etc. Vamos a ver que se realizan ciertas cosas fáciles, lo que da una apertura limitada. Pero no van a regresar los 9 millones de venezolanos, ni van a reactivar la economía, ni vamos a restaurar los 8 millones de barriles de petróleo al día prometidos por Hugo Chávez. Y en cuanto a esa tercera parte, transición, creo que esto es quizás lo más improbable. Creo que vamos a volver al juego que Jorge Rodríguez y otros ya jugaron con la administración Biden, con Juan González [principal asesor del presidente Biden para América Latina], con muchas otras personas antes, y esto desde siempre. Yo tengo mis dudas sobre hasta cuándo vamos a llegar en esta transición, lo cual es una etapa muy importante para los venezolanos". En cuanto al impacto en la región, el diplomático Víctor Rodríguez Cedeño (exrepresentante de Venezuela ante la ONU) afirma que la extracción de Maduro viene a destapar que la situación venezolana no era un problema exclusivo de los venezolanos. También ha demostrado que tiene un impacto hemisférico-regional en materia de seguridad, migración y economía. Posible impacto en Cuba y Nicaragua  "Hemos visto cómo en el proceso de democratización de la región Venezuela juega un papel importante. Ahí tenemos ya, por ejemplo, los anuncios políticos en relación con Cuba y Nicaragua. Creo que ha habido un avance importante también [con esos países]. Eso es lo que ha permitido incluso que algunos gobiernos de países como Brasil y Colombia, por ejemplo, que han sido muy radicales a favor de Maduro, no hayan sido tan críticos extremos con la posición de los Estados Unidos, la cual ha sido totalmente novedosa con respecto a lo que está sucediendo en Venezuela. Es la primera transición, un proceso de transición inédito en el sentido de que las partes trabajan, pero es un proceso impuesto más bien por un actor externo". Desde el pasado 3 de enero, Venezuela apunta a un horizonte incierto en mitad de una fase intermedia, abierta y dependiente de los Estados Unidos. Mientras, millones de venezolanos que migraron dudan en regresar al país, planteándose si esta nueva etapa atiende realmente a una transición democrática o a una reconfiguración del poder interno.

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis of the U.S. Army War College reports that Cuba is facing a catastrophic energy collapse, with only days of oil remaining after Mexico and Venezuela cut supplies. He predicts this crisis will likely trigger a massive wave of migration as the island's power grid and economy face a near-total shutdown.1900 GARCIA'S TOMB, HAVANA

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis discusses the Costa Rican election, where center-right candidate Laura Fernandezholds a commanding lead. He describes her as a technocrat focused on combating drug-fueled crime and continuing pro-business policies, noting she is on track to potentially win the presidency in the first round.1890 COSTA RICA

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis evaluates Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, praising her pragmatic management of relations with the U.S. despite her leftist ideology. He notes she has navigated threats of tariffs and military intervention by cooperating on border security and extradition, while maintaining political dominance through her predecessor's powerful movement.1892 RIO GRANDE

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis describes the unstable power dynamics in Venezuela, where the Rodriguez faction cooperates with the U.S. on oil to prevent economic collapse. He warns that rival criminal factions, including the ELNand military figures, may sabotage this arrangement if they fear being betrayed or marginalized by the current leadership.1870 CARACAS

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis examines the prospects for U.S.-Cuba negotiations.1899 CUBA

SEGMENT 9: COSTA RICA ELECTION AND PANAMA CANAL TENSIONS Guest: Professor Evan Ellis (US Army War College) Ellis examines Costa Rica's upcoming election amid concerns over giant prison construction projects. Discussion turns to unresolved Panama Canal disputes where Chinese interference continues challenging American interests. Regional dynamics shift as nations balance between Washington's demands and Beijing's economic inducements throughout Central America.1898 BRUSSELS

SEGMENT 10: PERU AND CHINESE INFLUENCE Guest: Professor Evan Ellis (US Army War College) Ellis analyzes China's growing investment and influence in Peru while the US offers military partnership as counterweight. Discussion covers political turmoil in Lima, economic promise from mineral wealth, and the competition between great powers for access to South American resources and strategic positioning.1898 BRUSSELS

SEGMENT 11: TRUMP SEEKS CUBAN REGIME CHANGE Guest: Professor Evan Ellis (US Army War College) Ellis examines the Trump administration's push for regime change in Havana. Dictator Díaz-Canel faces collapsing conditions with no oil, no power, and a broken economy driving mass emigration. The Obama administration's engagement offered false hope; now Washington applies maximum pressure on the desperate regime.1898 BRUSSELS

SEGMENT 12: MERCOSUR AGREEMENT FINALLY REACHED Guest: Professor Evan Ellis (US Army War College) Ellis reports good news as the Mercosur trade agreement concludes after 27 years of negotiations. The deal now faces court challenges while promising affordable food imports for Europe. EU farmers mount roadblock protests opposing competition from South American agriculture despite consumer benefits from the historic accord.1914 BRUSSELS

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY: TRUMP'S CUBA REGIME CHANGE PUSH Guest: Evan Ellis Ellis analyzes the Trump administration's unlikely push for Cuban regime change, with officials like Marco Rubio viewing the island as an ideological threat to hemispheric democracy. Trump leverages perceived momentum from Venezuela's Maduro capture to pressure Mexico, Colombia, and Iran, building a success narrative justifying further regional actions.1959 HAVANA

SHOW SCHEDULE1-15-25`1923 GREENLAND Rival Factions Contending for Power in Post-Maduro Venezuela. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. Following Maduro's detention, four major crime families are competing for authority in Caracas, including the Rodriguez siblings and military leadership. While Delcy Rodriguez shows cautious cooperation with the U.S. regarding oil and prisoners, the country remains unstable as criminal interests and political repression continue to stifle progress. Cuba's Collapse Amidst U.S. Oil Blockade and Economic Ruin. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. The Trump administration has halted oil shipments to Cuba, exacerbating a crisis where the electrical grid is failing and life is becoming "impossible." Despite minimal aid from Mexico, the repressive communist apparatus remains ingrained, and the regime is expected to muddle through despite massive out-migration. Regional Tensions: U.S. Pressure on Mexico and South American Shifts. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. The U.S. is pushing Mexico for joint military operations against cartels, forcing President Sheinbaum into a "delicate dance" to protect sovereignty. Meanwhile, Brazil's Lula balances leftist ties against a conservative military, and Colombia shows a potential shift to the right as Petro's policies face significant discredit. Trade Integration and Security Concerns in Mercosur and Costa Rica. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. Mercosur has achieved a historic trade deal with the European Union, potentially offsetting U.S. economic pressure and deepening ties with China. In Costa Rica, rising public insecurity has led the government to consider El Salvador's "mega-prison" model as they head into elections dominated by concerns over organized crime. The Risks of Seizing Russia's Shadow Fleet at Sea. Guest: ANATOL LIEVEN, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. The U.S. seizure of Russian-owned "shadow fleet" tankers raises the risk of a direct military clash if European nations follow suit. Russia views a maritime blockade as an act of war. Hardliners in the Kremlin may seek to escalate to terrify the West into withdrawing support from Ukraine. Russia's Role as a Stabilizing Factor in Middle East Tensions. Guest: ANATOL LIEVEN, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Russia has reportedly arbitrated between Jerusalem and Tehran to prevent preemptive strikes and maintain stability in Eurasia. While Russia lacks the power to defend Iran from a U.S. attack, it seeks to avoid regional instability. Russia's diplomatic approach contrasts with perceived universal aggression from other global actors. Economic Realities: Chinese Struggles and U.S. Consumer Strength. Guest: CHRIS RIEGEL, CEO of Stratacache. China's economy is struggling, evidenced by declining imports of raw materials and factory workers facing destitution. In contrast, the U.S. economy remains strong, with banner retail sales during the Christmasseason. However, the "K-shaped" economy shows consumer fatigue in the quick-service restaurant sector. Strategies for a Democratic Transition in Venezuela and Cuba. Guest: CLIFF MAY, Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Marco Rubio is reportedly developing a plan for a gradual transition in Venezuela by making specific demands on the remaining "gangster regime." By cutting off subsidized oil to Cuba, the U.S. hopes to cause the collapse of the Castroite regime, encouraging people to seek liberation from tyranny. Canada's Strategic Pivot to China. Guest: CONRAD BLACK. Prime Minister Mark Carney is visiting Chinato establish a "new strategic partnership" and a "new world order." This mission serves as a "Plan B" to offset potential trade losses with the United States under President Trump, specifically regarding strategic minerals and the renewal of the USMCA agreement. The Upwardly Mobile but Anxious Middle Class. Guest: VERONIQUE DE RUGY. Despite reports of a shrinking middle class, data shows many individuals are actually moving into the upper middle class. However, significant anxiety remains due to rising costs in government-regulated sectors like healthcare, housing, and education. This discontent leads to a search for scapegoats among the elite. Cosmological Mysteries: The Little Red Dots. Guest: DINESH NANDAL. The James Webb Space Telescopediscovered "little red dots"—compact, bright objects in the early universe that are not easily explained as galaxies or accreting black holes. These findings challenge the standard model of cosmology, suggesting the universe matured much earlier than previously thought by 21st-century scientists. Mapping the Future of Space Observation. Guest: DINESH NANDAL. Advancing cosmology requires a "James Webb 2.0" with larger mirrors and a successor to the Chandra X-ray telescope. Funding is also needed for researchers to develop new mathematical models. While AI can assist with pattern recognition, human physicists remain essential for creating the necessary new theoretical frameworks. Sovereignty and the Russian Identity Crisis. Guest: GREGORY COPLEY. Sovereignty is fundamentally tied to geography and identity. In the current period of "cratomorphosis," Russia exhibits defensive nationalism rather than expansionism. To the Kremlin, Ukraine remains the "cradle of Russia," making its loss a profound threat to Russian ethos, historical religious origins, and its personal identity. China's Quest for Legitimacy and Defense. Guest: GREGORY COPLEY. The Chinese Communist Partyyearns for ancient China's legitimacy while defending its modern borders. Rather than traditional imperial expansion, China employs "total war" non-military means. However, the state currently faces a crisis of sovereignty as it implodes internally under disproven totalitarian models and intensifying defensive pressures. The Reassertion of American Empire. Guest: GREGORY COPLEY. During Donald Trump's second term, the United States moved into an offensive mode to reassert dominance and energy security. Simultaneously, the European Union faces a crisis of legitimacy, with nation-states rebelling against its supra-state model. The EUlacks a cohesive vision, leading to internal distress. Lessons from the Superpower's Economic Resurgence. Guest: GREGORY COPLEY. The 21st century reveals that nations prioritizing energy security and enforced borders tend to succeed. President Trump's focus on manufacturing and cheap energy has bolstered the U.S. economy, positioning it as an unchallenged superpower. However, his dynamic approach often alienates allies while redefining grand strategy.

Rival Factions Contending for Power in Post-Maduro Venezuela. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. Following Maduro's detention, four major crime families are competing for authority in Caracas, including the Rodriguez siblings and military leadership. While Delcy Rodriguez shows cautious cooperation with the U.S. regarding oil and prisoners, the country remains unstable as criminal interests and political repression continue to stifle progress.1902 VZ

Cuba's Collapse Amidst U.S. Oil Blockade and Economic Ruin. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. The Trump administration has halted oil shipments to Cuba, exacerbating a crisis where the electrical grid is failing and life is becoming "impossible." Despite minimal aid from Mexico, the repressive communist apparatus remains ingrained, and the regime is expected to muddle through despite massive out-migration.1899 CUBA

Regional Tensions: U.S. Pressure on Mexico and South American Shifts. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. The U.S. is pushing Mexico for joint military operations against cartels, forcing President Sheinbaum into a "delicate dance" to protect sovereignty. Meanwhile, Brazil's Lula balances leftist ties against a conservative military, and Colombia shows a potential shift to the right as Petro's policies face significant discredit.1647

Trade Integration and Security Concerns in Mercosur and Costa Rica. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. Mercosur has achieved a historic trade deal with the European Union, potentially offsetting U.S.economic pressure and deepening ties with China. In Costa Rica, rising public insecurity has led the government to consider El Salvador's "mega-prison" model as they head into elections dominated by concerns over organized crime.1910

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY: GUEST EVAN ELLIS. Venezuela's Economic Opening Amidst Humanitarian Crisis. Evan Ellis explores the state of Venezuela, where millions wait for political change. While sanctions easing has allowed some oil flow and the return of American Airlines flights to Caracas, the nation still faces hyperinflation and a severe lack of food for those without access to dollars.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Ryan Berg and Evan Ellis join us to assess the regional and global implications of the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. They discuss how Beijing is interpreting the operation, what it signals about U.S. priorities, and the lessons China may draw for its military planning and approach to Taiwan. Ryan Berg is director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at CSIS. Evan Ellis is a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute and a nonresident senior associate in the Americas Program at CSIS.

Philp Teresi welcomes Dr. R. Evan Ellis to the program for some insight on what the Post Maduro Venezuela might look like. Dr Ellis is a military strategist and former Latin America policy adviser to the U.S. State Department and Senior Associate for the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://revanellis.com/ Please Like, Comment and Follow 'Philip Teresi on KMJ' on all platforms: --- Philip Teresi on KMJ is available on the KMJNOW app, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever else you listen to podcasts. -- Philip Teresi on KMJ Weekdays 2-6 PM Pacific on News/Talk 580 AM & 105.9 FM KMJ | Website | Facebook | Instagram | X | Podcast | Amazon | - Everything KMJ KMJNOW App | Podcasts | Facebook | X | Instagram See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Venezuela's oil industry has collapsed due to the firing of professionals and lack of maintenance, leaving infrastructure dangerous and unable to process heavy crude. With storage at capacity, the U.S. is using "coercive diplomacy" to manage oil flows while legal disputes hamper future investment.1904 CARACAS

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Havana is in panic as the loss of Venezuelan oil threatens to break the country's petroleum-fired power infrastructure. With the currency in freefall and massive blackouts, the regime hopes to muddle through despite enormous suffering, while Washington's rhetoric signals that external pressure will continue.1959 HAVANA

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Events in Caracas are shaping upcoming elections in Brazil and Colombia, pushing leaders like Lula toward moderation to appease centrist voters. In Colombia, frustration with President Petro's policies and security failures may favor right-wing candidates. Meanwhile, Peru's election focuses on public insecurity and deep Chinese investment.

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Latin America is seeing a shift away from leftist "Pink Tide" governments toward pro-U.S. administrations in countries like Argentina and Paraguay due to failures in addressing security and corruption. Despite this political shift, China continues to ensure repayment of its loans, even from struggling regimes like Venezuela.

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY: Evan Ellis discusses the impact of events in Caracas on Brazil's upcoming election. Lula da Silva faces scrutiny over ties to Chavista elites, while the Bolsonaro family alleges political persecution by the courts. The "cultural war" continues as Brazil grapples with leftist policies and deepening Chinese engagement.1914 RIO DE JANEIRO

Although geographically distant from Chinese shores, Latin America and the Caribbean occupy an important place in Chinese foreign policy. In the past decade, China has significantly expanded its influence in the region. The main vector of Chinese involvement has been economic, including securing access to commodities such as soybeans, copper, oil, and lithium, creating markets for Chinese companies, and deepening financial ties through trade, lending, and infrastructure investment.  On December 10, China released a new white paper on its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean, the third such document following earlier editions in 2008 and 2016. The White Paper characterizes the region as “an essential force in the process toward a multipolar world and economic globalization.” Its release came on the heels of the Trump Administration's release of its National Security Strategy, which places unprecedented emphasis on the Western Hemisphere and asserts that the US seeks a region “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets,” highlighting the growing strategic salience of Latin America and the Caribbean in US-China competition.  To discuss the new White Paper and the implications of China's policies in the LAC for the United States and US-China relations, we are joined by Dr. Evan Ellis. Dr. Ellis is a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. He previously served on the Secretary of State's policy planning staff with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as international narcotics and law enforcement issues.Timestamps:[00:00] Introduction[02:07] US and China on a Collision Course? [04:50] Chinese Priorities in Latin America [08:33] U.S. Security Risks from Chinese Port Investments[11:45] How China Uses CELAC to Advance Its Agenda[14:27] How Latin Americans View China's Growing Presence[17:22] Honduras and the Republic of China[21:22] How Beijing Might Address U.S. Concerns [25:09] China's Reaction to US and Venezuela  

ARGENTINA'S CREDIT RATING RISES AS BRAZIL FACES POLITICAL POLARIZATION Colleague Professor Evan Ellis. S&P upgraded Argentina's credit rating following Javier Milei's austerity measures, which have stabilized the currency and reduced inflation despite social costs. In Brazil, the reduction of Jair Bolsonaro's prison sentence and his son Flavio's candidacy signal a continued, polarized struggle against Lula da Silva's agenda for the 2026 election. NUMBER 8 1930

VENEZUELA'S TRAGIC DECLINE FROM PROSPERITY TO AUTHORITARIANISM Colleague Professor Evan Ellis. Historical imagery reveals Venezuela's transformation from a prosperous, modern nation in the 1950s to a ruined state today. Deep inequality and corruption in the pre-Chavez era alienated the poor, allowing Hugo Chavez to capitalize on their frustration and dismantle the free market system, leading to the current crisis. NUMBER 6 1948 CARACAS

ELECTIONS IN CHILE, PERU, AND HONDURAS SIGNAL REGIONAL SHIFTS Colleague Professor Evan Ellis. In Chile, José Antonio Kast's rise reflects a rejection of progressive policies and crime, favoring order and investment. Meanwhile, Peru faces political fragmentation and violence, Honduras struggles with electoral disputes, and Costa Rica appears poised to elect a pro-US candidate who aims to limit Chinese influence. NUMBER 7 1900 SANTIAGO

PREVIEW Guest: Professor Evan Ellis Summary: Professor Ellis discusses Venezuela's tragic fall from 1950s oil wealth to current dysfunction, attributing it to the "resource curse" and corruption. He explains how Hugo Chavezappealed to the forgotten poor to dismantle free markets and establish a criminal state involved in drug trafficking and illegal mining. 1958 CARACAS ATTACKING NIXON

CHINA'S SURREPTITIOUS SUPPORT KEEPS THE MADURO REGIME AFLOAT Colleague Professor Evan Ellis. China sustains the Maduro regime through loans, surveillance technology, and military equipment while bypassing sanctions to import Venezuelan oil. The state oil company, PDVSA, collapsed due to the purging of technical experts and lack of investment, forcing Venezuela to rely on Iranian engineers to maintain minimal production. NUMBER 5 1902 CARACAS

Venezuelan Opposition Leader Accepts Nobel Prize in Oslo: Colleague Evan Ellis reports on Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado accepting a Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo after escaping her country, outlining a new US national security strategy increasing military presence in the hemisphere and the seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker. 1954

Caribbean Reactions to US Military Operations Against Venezuela: Colleague Evan Ellis analyzes Caribbean reactions to US military operations against Venezuela, noting support from the Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago, explaining that islands like Curacao and Aruba fear becoming targets, while political shifts in St. Vincent offer new cooperation opportunities. OCT 1958

Electoral Chaos in Honduras and Chile's Stark Choice: Colleague Evan Ellis describes electoral chaos in Honduras, where US-backed candidate Asfura leads amidst claims of irregularities and potential unrest, contrasting this with Chile's election where voters choose between conservative Kast and communist "Hara" due to fears of communism or desire for social rights. MARXH 1951

China's New White Paper on Latin America: Colleague Evan Ellis details China's new white paper on Latin America, which ignores US pressure and asserts a "full speed ahead" diplomatic and economic approach, emphasizing expanding infrastructure, technology, and security cooperation while securing access to critical commodities like copper. JAN 1963

PREVIEW — Evan Ellis — Honduras: Poverty, Corruption, and Migration Crisis. Ellis details the severe structural poverty and endemic corruption plaguing Honduras, characterized by institutionally weak governance frameworks systematically infiltrated by drug trafficking organizations and violent gangs including Mara Salvatucha and Mara 18, which exercise de facto control over substantial territorial jurisdictions. Ellis documents that despite significant recent reductions in homicide rates reflecting improved security conditions, Honduras remains fundamentally unstable, functioning as a major source of Central American and Caribbean migration toward Northern Triangle transit routes to the United States. Ellis notes that domestic Honduran political constituencies are increasingly demanding law-and-order governance and institutional reform to address gang violence, territorial control by criminal organizations, and the dysfunctional state capacity that perpetuates irregular migration and humanitarian crises. 1930 CARACAS

U.S. Gunboat Diplomacy: Venezuela Negotiations and Exile Arrangements — Evan Ellis — Ellis evaluates American military pressure against Venezuela, including threatened lethal strikes and special operations to forcibly remove Maduro from power. Ellis documents that Maduro is desperately negotiating for personal survival and comprehensive presidential pardons from potential prosecution. Ellis notes that Brazilian President Lula da Silvapossesses severely limited diplomatic leverage and capacity to broker exile asylum arrangements for Venezuelanleadership without risking domestic political backlash from Brazilian constituencies. 1909 VENEZUELA

                                     Honduras Election Chaos: Leftist Defeat and Geopolitical Implications — Evan Ellis — Ellis analyzes the chaotic Honduran presidential election wherein the ruling leftist Libre Party experienced electoral defeat after preliminary projections suggested victory. Ellis details the tight electoral race between centrist candidate Nasralla and Trump-endorsed candidate Asfura, warning that the electoral outcome will substantially impact U.S. counter-narcotics cooperation effectiveness and whether Honduras restores diplomatic recognition to Taiwan or maintains China relations. 1866

Peru's Political Violence and China's Strategic Resource Control — Evan Ellis — Ellis documents rising political violence throughout Peru, where presidential candidates now require permanent personal security details including bulletproof protective equipment amid pervasive civic insecurity. Ellis highlights China's deepening institutional influence over Peruvian politics and economy through the "Chinese construction club" corruption nexus. Ellisemphasizes Beijing's strategic control over Peruvian copper mining and Pacific port infrastructure, resources strategically essential for global AI technological manufacturing and supply chain security. 1945

Caribbean Geopolitical Shifts: Democratic Rightward Movement and Chinese Presence — Evan Ellis — Ellis reports on Caribbean political realignment, including rightward democratic electoral shifts in St. Vincent and expanded Dominican Republic security cooperation with U.S. military operations in regional counternarcotics and maritime enforcement. Ellis documents China's continued institutional presence throughout the Caribbean through hospital ship deployments and medical assistance programs in Jamaica, coupled with Beijing's political rhetoric opposing American hemispheric interventionism and reasserting Chinese claim to regional geopolitical influence. ST. VINCENT