Podcast appearances and mentions of june cpi

Shoot us a Text.Today is Tuesday! Things are happening in the auto industry, like how lower used car prices are driving down inflation, VinFast is forming a US dealer advisory board and Rivian is pressing ahead on future plans.Show Notes with linksUsed car prices have plummeted over the past year, reaching their lowest level since 2021, and are now the leading category reducing inflation, according to CoPilot's analysis of CPI data.Cox Automotive reports that the average list price for a used vehicle is now $25,251, down 7% from last year and the lowest since summer 2021.The June CPI report shows a 10.1% drop in used vehicle prices over the past year, with a 1.5% decline in the last month alone.The previous surge in used car prices was driven by a supply crunch in new vehicles.CoPilot CEO Pat Ryan explains that the supply of new vehicles has increased by about 50% since July 2023, easing pressure on the used market.“Consumers have finally found themselves with more options to buy new, rather than used,” Ryan noted.EV manufacturer VinFast is strengthening its presence in the U.S. by forming a Dealer Advisory Board to navigate the American market.VinFast aims to expand its U.S. dealership network with strategic advisory board members including David Coyle of Leith VinFast  in NC, Damian Mills of VinFast Triad in NC, David Sansing, Elie Hanna, Bill AuffenbergVinFast has received 70 applications from dealers and plans to establish 125 third-party sales points by the end of 2024.David Coyle, Dealer Principal of Leith VinFast commented “This board represents a great opportunity for open communication and collaboration, ensuring VinFast remains at the forefront of the EV market.”Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe recently sat down with the Verge to cover the EV maker's future plans, why every EV looks like a Tesla, and the joint venture with VW.Rivian announced five new models this year: R2, R3, R3X, and updated versions of R1T and R1S. The R2 is set to launch in 2026 and already has 100K pre-orders.Scaringe believes that the slowdown in EV growth is not due to a lack of demand but rather a lack of variety in available models. He believes there is significant latent demand for EVs that meet diverse consumer needs. “Because of the Model Y's success, you have a lot of incumbents that have built products that look and feel and are shaped a lot like a Model Y.”The $5 billion joint venture with VW focuses on co-developing Rivian's streamlined electronic architecture, which reduces the number of ECUs (electrical control units) in vehicles, simplifying software updates and cost efficiency. VW aims to leverage Rivian's advanced technology across its brands, including Porsche, Audi, and Bentley.Rivian also just launched an EV Charging Outpost near Yosemite National Park, converting an old gas station into a rustic charging site, featuring a lounge area, complimentary librarHosts: Paul J Daly and Kyle MountsierGet the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/ Read our most recent email at: https://www.asotu.com/media/push-back-email

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the economies of most major powers are in good shape and their companies are prospering.But for those who follow such things, we should note that President Biden has decided not to run in the Presidential election in November, stepping aside. The race for the Democratic nomination is now open at their convention in Chicago starting on Tuesday August 20 (NZT) even though Biden endorsed Kamala Harris.Well before then and ahead this week will be some early PMIs for July released for many key economies. Although there are no major June CPI due for release, the US's important PCE inflation data is due on Saturday NZT and that will be keenly awaited. The US will also release its first estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday and markets expect real growth there to be +2% from Q1. Good recent data might well see it above that.Canada is reviewing its policy rate on Thursday, and market now expect a -25 bps cut to 4.5%China is set to announce its policy interest rate decision this week, and it should be releasing its troubled FDI update soon, both possibly later today.Over the weekend, the big overnight news was that a "faulty channel file" from CrowdStrike took down Windows computers everywhere, including in New Zealand. Outages were widespread, including for many bank services. It was a spectacular own-goal and not a malicious strike. We have more details here. And our review shows how you can recover if you were affected.. But be careful; within hours scammers had launched new domains hoping to trick users into 'response scams'. CrowdStrike made its name fixing tech problems. Now it has caused a doozy. The echoes are lingering and may do for some time yet.And the situation isn't going to do anything for tech company valuations generally. US$13 bln CrowdStrike's share price was down -11% on Friday alone, down -18% for the week.Interestingly, China seems to have escaped the issue, largely due to its self-sufficiency policies. But it has hit Hong Kong.A new research note by the New York Fed is pointing out that since the GFC, American factory productivity improvements have stalled. Tech has been no saviour to this sector. Prior to that, large firms built innovative advances. But since even the leading firms haven't got productivity gains. They call the change a 'mystery'. Even shifting low-wage production offshore didn't have the effect of raising it. Nor competition, it seems. And all this come as their employed workforce hit record highs.In Canada, their expected May retreat in retail sales after the strong April gain came in deeper than expected. If it wasn't for good car sales, it would have been much worse. June is expected to be -0.3% lower too. Now their year-on-year gain is only +1.0%, much less than their inflation of +2.7%.Canadian producer prices rose +2.8% in the year to June, the same as for the year to May.Japanese inflation stayed at 2.8% in June, well above their central bank's upper target range. It has been consistently above 2% since April 2022. Food prices rose 3.6% in June although that was lower than the May 4.1% rate. Energy prices were up 2.4% but that is somewhat artificially high because fuel subsidies ended in May. These levels are marginally lower than analyst expectations.China has ended its internal policy meetings, the Third Plenum. As suspected, little real economic reform seems to have been on their agenda. Just more of a 'security is everything' attitude, more excessive adverbs, and a seeming turn inward. Those hoping for 'reform' and 'opening up' will have been disappointed.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.24% and unchanged from Saturday.On Wall Street, earnings season will hit a crescendo this week with over thirty companies boasting market caps exceeding US$100 bln are set to unveil their Q2 financial reports. So far, only one in seven of S&P500 companies have reported Q2 results but they have been strong. Of those most are reporting earnings growth, and more than anticipated by analysts.The price of gold will start today up just +US$3 from Saturday at US$2401/oz after Friday night's big drop.Oil prices are holding lower at just on US$78.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$82/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today little-changed at 60.1 USc but more than -1c over the past week. Against the Aussie we are still at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also still at 55.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69 but down -90 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,720 and up a minor +0.3% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Our experts discuss how high prices for auto insurance have been driving inflation, and the implications for consumers and the Fed now that price increases are due to slow.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Diego Anzoategui: I'm Diego Anzoategui from the US Economics team.Bob Huang: And I'm Bob Huang, the US Life and Property Casualty Insurance Analyst.Seth Carpenter: And on this episode, we're going to talk about a topic that -- I would have guessed -- historically we weren't going to think about too often in a macro setting; but over the past couple of years it's been a critical part of the whole story on inflation, and probably affects most of our listeners.It's auto insurance and why we think we're reaching a turning point.It's Thursday, July 18th at 10am in New York.All right, let's get started.If you drive a car in the United States, you almost surely have been hit by a big increase in your auto insurance prices. Over the past couple of years, everyone has been talking about inflation, how much consumer prices have been going up. But one of the components that lots of people see that's really gone up dramatically recently has been auto insurance.So that's why I wanted to come in and sit down with my colleagues, Diego and Bob, and talk through just what's going on here with auto insurance and how does it matter.Diego, I'm going to start with you.One thing that is remarkable is that the inflation that we're seeing now and that we've seen over the past several months is not related to the current state of the economy.But we know in markets that everyone's looking at the Fed, and the Fed is looking at the CPI data that's coming out. We just got the June CPI data for the US recently. How does this phenomenon of auto insurance fit into that reading on the data?Diego Anzoategui: Auto insurance is a relatively small component of CPI. It only represents just below 3 per cent of the CPI basket. But it has become a key driver because of the very high inflation rates has been showing. You know, the key aggregate the Fed watches carefully is core services ex-housing inflation. And the general perception is that inflation in these services is a lagged reflection of labor market tightness. But the main component driving this aggregate, at least in CPI, since 2022 has been auto insurance.So the main story behind core services ex-housing inflation in CPI is just the lagged effect of a cost shock to insurance companies.Seth Carpenter: Wait, let me stop you there. Did I understand you right? That if we're thinking about core services inflation, if you exclude housing; that is, I think, what a lot of people think is inflation that comes from a tight labor market, inflation that comes from an overheated economy. And you're saying that a lot of the movement in the past year or two is really coming from this auto insurance phenomenon.Diego Anzoategui: Yes, that's exactly true. It is the main component explaining core services ex-housing inflation.Seth: What's caused this big acceleration in auto insurance over the past few years? And just how big a deal is it for an economist like us?Diego Anzoategui: Yeah, so believe it or not, today's auto insurance inflation is related to COVID and the supply chain issues we faced in 2021 and 2022. Key cost components such as used cars, parts and equipment, and repair cost increased significantly, creating cost pressures to insurance companies. But the reaction in terms of pricing was sluggish. Some companies reacted slowly; but perhaps more importantly, regulators in key states didn't approve price increases quickly.Remember that this is a regulated industry, and insurance companies need approvals from regulators to update premiums. And, of course, losses increased as a result of this sluggish response in pricing, and several insurance started to scale back businesses, creating supply demand imbalances.And it is when these imbalances became evident that regulators started to approve large rate increases, boosting car insurance inflation rapidly from the second half of 2022 until today.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so if that's the case, what should we think about as key predictors, then, of auto insurance prices going forward? What should investors be aware of? What should consumers be aware of? Diego Anzoategui: So in terms of predictors, it is always a good idea to keep track of cost related variables. And these are leading indicators that we both Bob and I would follow closely.Used car prices, repair costs, which are also CPI components, are leading indicators of auto insurance inflation. And both of them are decelerating. Used car prices are actually falling. So there is deflation in that component. But I think rate filings are a key indicator to identify the turning point we are expecting this cycle.Seth Carpenter: Can you walk through what that means -- rate filings? Just for our listeners who might not be familiar?Diego Anzoategui: So, rate filings basically summarize how much insurers are asking to regulators to increase their premiums. And we actually have access to this data at a monthly frequency. Filings from January to May this year -- they are broadly running in line with what happened in 2023. But we are expecting deceleration in the coming months.If filings start to come down, that will be a confirmation of our view of a turning point coming and a strong sign of future deceleration in car insurance inflation.Seth Carpenter: So Bob, let me turn to you. Diego outlines with the macro considerations here. You're an analyst, you cover insurers, you cover the equity prices for those insurance, you're very much in the weeds. Are we reaching a turning point? Walk us through what actually has happened.Bob Huang: Yeah, so we certainly are reaching a turning point. And then, similar to what Diego said before, right, losses have been very high; and then that consequently resulted in ultimately regulators allowing insurance companies to increase price, and then that price increase really is what's impacting this.Now, going forward, as insurers are slowly achieving profitability in the personal auto space, personal auto insurers are aiming to grow their business. And then, if we believe that the personal auto insurance is more or less a somewhat commoditized product, and then the biggest lever that the insurance companies have really is on the pricing side. And as insurers achieve profitability, aim for growth, and that will consequently cost some more increased pricing competition.So, yes, we'll see pricing deceleration, and that's what I'm expecting for the second half of the year. And then perhaps even further out, and that could even intensify further. But we'll have to see down the road.Seth Carpenter: Is there any chance that we actually see decreases in those premiums? Or is the best we can hope for is that they just stopped rising as rapidly as they have been?Bob Huang: I think the most likely scenario is that the pricing will stabilize. For price to decrease to before COVID level, that losses have to really come down and stabilize as well. There are only a handful of insurers right now that are making what we call an underwriting profit. Some other folks are still trying to make up for the losses from before.So, from that perspective, I think, when we think about competition, when we think about pricing, stabilization of pricing will be the first point. Can price slightly decrease from here? It's possible depending on how intensive the competition is. But is it going to go back to pre-COVID level? I think that's a hard ask for the entire industry.Seth Carpenter: You were talking a lot about competition and how competition might drive pricing, but Diego reminded all of us at the beginning that this industry is a regulated industry. So can you walk us through a little bit about how we should think about this going forward?What's the interaction between competition on the one hand and regulation on the other? How big a deal is regulation? And, is any of that up for grabs given that we've got an election in November?Bob Huang: Usually what an insurer will have to do in general is that for some states -- well actually, in most cases they would have to ask for rate filings, depending on how severe those rate filings are. Regulators may have to step in and approve those rate filings.Now, as we believe that competition will gradually intensify, especially with some of the more successful carriers, what they can do is simply just not ask for price increase. And in that case, regulators don't really need to be involved. And then also implies that if you're not asking for a rate increase, then that also means that you're not really getting that pricing -- like upward pricing pressure on the variety of components that we're looking at.Seth Carpenter: To summarize, what I'm hearing from Bob at the micro level is those rate increases are probably slowing down and probably come to a halt and we'll have a stabilization. But don't get too excited, consumers. It's not clear that car insurance premiums are actually going to fall, at least not by a sizable margin.And Diego, from you, what I'm hearing is this component of inflation has really mattered when it comes to the aggregate measure of inflation, especially for services. It's been coming down. We expect it to come down further. And so, your team's forecast, the US economics team forecast, for the Fed to cut three times this year on the back of continued falls of inflation -- this is just another reason to be in that situation.So, thanks to both of you being on this. It was great for me to be able to talk to you, and hopefully our listeners enjoyed it too.Bob Huang: Thank you for having me here.Diego Anzoategui: Always a pleasure.Seth Carpenter: To the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen; and share this podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

S&P futures are indicating a lower open today, down (0.64%) after mixed sessions in Asia. European equity markets are also softer, following lower finishes on Tuesday. The top macro stories driving the global market today are mixed macro data from Asia and Europe, alongside renewed geopolitical tensions following former President Trump's comments on Taiwan. UK inflation remained at the BoE's target as June CPI came ahead of estimates at +2%, though services prices are still elevated. The BoE's August rate cut expectations dipped to 25% from 50% prior to the update. New Zealand's Q2 inflation came in below forecasts, softening to +0.4% q/q. Former President Donald Trump's comments on Taiwan defense costs have sparked geopolitical concerns, raising questions about potential changes to U.S. policy should he return to office.Companies Mentioned: Gitlab, Primerica, Eni, KKR, Blackstone

Allen Li, Head of our Municipal Bond Sector Team, reviews trends, opportunities, and idiosyncratic risk in municipal bonds. And U.S. Economist Matt Bush discusses the implications of the soft June CPI release.Related Content:2Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what's next.Read Quarterly Macro Themes2Q24 Fixed-Income Sector ViewsBalancing attractive yields and tight spreads.Read Fixed-Income Sector ViewsThe Economic Cycle Isn't Dead, Merely Delayed…And That's Good for BondsNavigating an economic cycle where old patterns don't seem to apply. Read Portfolio Strategy CommentaryInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.SP 61892

In this episode of Market Minutes, Stacy Pereira talks about the key factors to watch out for today before the domestic market opens. After 6 consecutive weeks of gains, the mood on D-street continues to be upbeat with Nifty looking to further scale from 24,500 levels. Globally, markets will be taking cues from updates in the Trump attempted assasination as well as the Q2 earnings in America. Among stocks declaring their earnings Jio Financial Services , AngelOne will declare results on July 15. In our special voice of the day segment listen, in to C Vijaykumar the MD & CEO of HCL Tech on the company's guidance going forward as well as their initiatives on Generative AI. Market Minutes is a morning podcast that puts the spotlight on hot stocks, key data points, and developing trends.

There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript April 2010https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20100428meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week, I analyse the June CPI data of both the US and India and their impact on monetary policy, I discuss why the RBI needs to start looking into climate change more closely, and why my opinion on FedEx has changed. P.S: If you have a specific Indian or US stock suggestion for the doctor to diagnose, do tweet me @uthamvinay or email me on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thestockdoctorpodcast@gmail.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Thank you once again for listening. See you next week! Until then, stay safe and make some money!

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news other than the crazy American political campaign which just seems to feed conspiracy narratives. We will ignore that and just concentrate on the data.This coming week, all eyes will be on the New Zealand CPI rate for Q2-2024 which will be released on Wednesday. Preview here. Japan, Canada and the UK will all also release June CPI data. Later today we will get the China GDP result for Q2 and it is likely to confirm to the CCP designated targets. But of more interest will be their retail sales, industrial production, and electricity production data. We will also get Australia's June labour force data this week. And from the US it will be retail sales, housing starts, and industrial production. Also, Wall Street will get to see the second week of their Q2 earnings season. The first week was very positive.Over the weekend, China reported new yuan data for June and it wasn't especially strong. Chinese banks extended +¥2.1 tln in new yuan loans in June, a sharp contraction from the +¥3.1 tln in June the previous year, and slightly below market expectations of ¥2.2 tln. The slip aligned with the sharp slowdown in outstanding loan growth, dropping to +8.1% in June from +9.3% in the previous month, to mark the smallest amount of loan growth since data started being recorded in 1998. A year ago it grew at +11.3%. Total 'social financing' in June was -22% less that the same month a year ago.China's exports were expected to rise +8% in June ahead of new American tariffs. But they actually rose +8.6% to a 15 month high. Their imports fell -2.3% however when a +2.8% rise was expected. That divergence meant they reported another big surplus - which will undoubtedly spread the fear of Chinese dumping from its over-capacity situation.They reported they imported almost -16% less from New Zealand in June than in the same month a year ago. They exported +2.4% more to us. For Australia, imports were down -5.2% and exports down -4.9%. For the US, their imports from them were down -4.9% and exports to them up +1.5%. Overall trading with China is pretty muted now. The only destinations that China has good exports to were Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and surprisingly Taiwan. Everyone else - Russia included - is very ho-hum. And total trade (imports and exports) is only healthy with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brazil.Japanese industrial production rose +3.6% in May from the prior month to be up +1.1% from a year ago, solidifying the evidence of an improving Japanese economy. No doubt the recent lower yen has helped, especially at the pressure from energy prices has waned substantially.India's inflation rate rose to 5.1% in June. up a rather startling +1.3 in June alone. From a year ago, food prices were up +9.4% however within that. This rise was not expected, although their central bank is not expected to react to it because they have given themselves a very generous 2% to 6% target range for inflation. But they are now well above the 4% midpoint and the froth developing in their breakneck economic expansion will need to be dealt with soon.Industrial output in India rose +5.9% in May from a year ago, well above market expectations of a +4.9% gain and marking the highest growth rate since October 2023. Manufacturing which accounts for nearly 80% of total industrial production, expanded by +4.6% with surged growth noted in the pharmaceutical sector (+7.5%), basic metals (+7.8%), mining (+6.6%) and electricity (+13.7%).American producer prices rose +2.6% in June from a year ago (+0.3% for the month), the most since March 2023, and rising from an upwardly revised 2.4% rate in May. Markets had expected a rise of 2.3%. Under the hood, inflation pressures still lurk but remain at a much more manageable level.But despite all the vastly improved economic signals, American consumer sentiment still lags. According to the widely-watched University of Michigan survey, it fell for a fourth straight month in July to its lowest since November. Nearly half of consumers are still concerned about high prices and economic uncertainty persisting as their upcoming election looms.In Australia, the number of permanent arrivals in the country is now almost at a new record high in a very sharp rebound. +12,680 people arrived in the country in May, taking the annual level to +161,000. The record high permanent arrival level was +163,400 in February 2009.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19% and unchanged from Saturday. A week ago it was at 4.28% so a -9 bps net fall since then. The S&P futures, which actively trade through the weekend, suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow with a +0.9% gain.The price of gold will start today down -US$4 from Saturday at US$2410/oz. So far, no safe haven rush.Oil prices are still at just under US$81.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still at just on US$84.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$83/bbl and US$86.50/bbl respectively. Earlier today, Kuwait said it has discovered very large new oil reserves in a marine environment and it plans production "as soon as possible".The Kiwi dollar starts today still at 61.2 USc and back nearer the week-ago level of 61.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 56.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.9 but down from the 70.6 of a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,044 and up +2.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kelly explains what the negative June CPI number means for the Fed's next move.

Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what this latest inflation data might mean for monetary policy, and the markets. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today's CPI report is expected to show a slight increase in headline inflation on a monthly basis. Bank of America's Aditya Bhave gives his forecast. Plus, Oppenheimer is out with its Best Smidcap Ideas list. Jed Kelly makes the case for Genius Sports. And, sticky inflation may be taking too big a toll on consumer spending. Compass Diversified CEO Elias Sabo explains what his business is seeing.

Today's weaker-than-expected June CPI report raised odds for a September rate cut above 90%, helping rate-sensitive small-cap stocks. Tech and mega caps sold off.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

US equities finished mixed in Thursday afternoon trading. This morning's cooler-than-forecast June CPI report drove today's price action. However, disinflation sparked rotation from big tech toward small caps and non-big tech groups, creating a relative drag on S&P and Nasdaq.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong react to the release of the June CPI data that showed inflation slowing for the month. When will the Fed respond with rate cuts? Jerome Powell is not prepared to say he's confident about inflation. Delta's sagging profts signals trouble for airlines this summer. Home insurance premiums are surging and states are allowing it. The risky loan-trade is back. Goldman strategists say Big Tech's AI splurge is worrying investors.

ASX 200 rallied towards all-time highs, up 73 points to 7890 (0.9%) as rate cuts seem to be back on the agenda. US CPI tonight and some caution creeping in.  As usual, the banks led the charge higher with CBA hitting a new high, the Big Bank Basket hitting $223.09 ().  Insurers continue to push higher with QBE up 1.1% and SUN up 1.4%. MQG lagging a little with ASX up 1.7%. REITs strong again, GMG up 1.1% and SCG up 1.6%. Industrials also firm although TLS unchanged after recent gains, WES up 1.3% and BXB up 1.3%. Healthcare better, CSL pushing 1.5% higher with RMD up 0.9% and TLX doing very well up 10.5%. Tech better too, with XRO up 3.4% and 360 rallying 2.2%. Resources finally finding some friends despite a lack of impetus in iron ore, BHP up 0.9%, RIO up 0.2%, and FMG up 1.9%. Gold miners also in demand, NST up % and EVN up %, with uranium stocks doing very well, PDN up 6.2% and BOE up 6.1%. Lithium stocks saw some bargain hunting, PLS up 2.7% and MIN up 2.5%. Oil and gas stocks better, WDS up 1.2% and KAR up 0.8%. In corporate news, TLX had a good day on changes to US regulations, the ACCC has started initial proceedings against The Good Guys. Not so good now. In economic news, June CPI tonight in the US, Trump will speak at a Bitcoin event. He wants all remaining crypto to be Made in the USA. In Asian markets, China rallied on short seller news, up 1%, HK up 1.5%, and Japan pushed ever higher to 1.1% better.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence. Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community.  

S&P futures are indicating a higher open, +0.08% as the market awaits for tomorrow's CPI data. Sentiments are improving, after Fed Chair Powell's remarks kept the possibility of a September rate cut in play. The primary macro story today is China's June CPI inflation, which unexpectedly softened amid weak domestic demand. China's CPI inflation rose by +0.2% y/y in June, below the consensus of +0.4%, driven mainly by falling food prices, especially fresh fruits and vegetables. Core inflation remained steady at +0.6%. The PPI fell by (0.8%) y/y, in line with expectations, showing easing declines in upstream prices.Companies mentioned: RTX Corp, Eversource Energy, MarineMax, OpenAI, Microsoft

A day before the June CPI report, major indexes extended their rally amid growing demand for semiconductors and rate cut hopes. The S&P 500 index topped 5,600.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

Singapore stocks extended the previous day's rally to open higher today, following a mixed overnight performance in global markets. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) gained 0.3 per cent to 3,434.74 points after 32.4 million securities changed hands in the broader market.  In terms of companies to watch for today, we have Yoma Strategic, after the Myanmar-focused company today clarified that no charges have been filed against its executive chairman Serge Pun.  Elsewhere, from Sats restructuring its gateway services business to Beijing's stance on robotaxis and the country's inflation numbers – more corporate and international headlines remain in focus. Also on deck – Tesla and Cathie Wood. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Carl Ashton, Investment Counselor, Citi Private Bank.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

that in the three elections held over the weekend, 'democracy' seems to be signaling a rejection of the hard-line and hard-right.But first in the week ahead the main event will be Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review. But there will be other important global data released as well, including the American CPI and PPI results for June. China will release its versions of inflation monitoring as well, and the data on new yuan loans. India will release its June CPI data too, plus industrial production data for May. And from Australia we will get the NAB business sentiment results for June, and the Westpac consumer sentiment survey results.First up however we should note that China's foreign exchange reserves in USD were little-changed in June from May, holding the level they have been since late 2023. But they are rising in yuan, mainly because the yuan is depreciating. Their gold reserves remained unchanged for the second straight month at 72.8 million troy ounces (2264 tonnes) and that ends a gain for 18 consecutive months,Those reserves have been put to political use. First it was Sri Lanka, now Laos has succumbed to China's 'debt trap' diplomacy. China's 'encouragement' to develop their countries - with official Chinese loans - has plunged Laos into a financially unsustainable situation, and Beijing is now promising to 'help' them out of the mess. Easy money and a drive to 'catch up' is too much of an enticement for local leaders. In the end the price is subservience. Essentially, China now owns Laos.In Japan, their huge Government Pension Investment Fund, one of the world's biggest institutional investors, booked a +NZ$462 bln gain in the past year (more than New Zealand's entire economic activity as measured by GDP). They need it however. As wages rise there and their workforce ages further, the claims on that will rise. That fund alone has reserves of almost NZ$2.5 tln.On Saturday (NZT) the closely watched non-farm payrolls report for the US was released with a headline result of +206,000 larger employment in June, slightly more than the +190,000 expected. Their unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%.But this seasonally-adjusted data masks an actual rise of +547,000 people on company payrolls, although that was lower than the +844,000 increase the prior month. It also masks some downward revisions to the prior month.There are now 161.8 mil people employed in June in the US, including the unincorporated self employed, up +433,000 from May. So all the growth is in company payrolls and people are shifting out of self-employment to the more formal workforce.And that is conformed by pay rates. Average hourly pay hit US$30 for the first time ever in June, up +4.0% from a year ago (and rising faster than inflation). Average weekly earnings (which accounts for working hours), rose +3.7% (also more than inflation which is running at 3.3%). But these gains are now easing from earlier months.Basically, this data changed their economic situation little but is has a sense of a slowing trend. US Treasury yields fell on the news, but Wall Street equities took it in its stride. The USD eased very slightly.The Fed probably liked what it saw. New York Fed boss said the US economy was doing remarkably well and there had been significant progress towards inflation goals. Fed boss Powell will be testifying in Congress this coming week.The next US Fed rate review is on August 1, 2024 NZT.In Canada, their labour market report for June wasn't as positive. In fact their employed jobs fell a trivial -1,400 when a +22,500 rise was expected. They will be disappointed in that. This data probably advanced the case for a July rate cut when their central bank meets next on July 25, NZT. Their policy rate is currently 4.75%.And staying in Canada, there was some more positive news. Their widely-watched local June PMI rebounded sharply back to April growth levels, consigning the lowish May result to outlier status. They have now had eleven consecutive month of economic growth, the second highest string since 2016 (the pandemic aftermath excepted).France is voting in the second round of its most crucial legislative elections in recent years, with the early results suggest a sharp rejection of the far-right.. Voter turnout however is being described as being unusually high - as are the stakes. In Iran, the more moderate of the two options for 'President' (a position subservient to the top cleric) won handily in a signal their population wants a less confrontational government and more focus on economic improvement. And the British election delivered an unusually large 'landslide' for its center-left Labour Party, with strong gains for its third-force LibDems as well. The hard-right Reform Party won only 5 seats, despite getting 14% of the votes. Such is FPP. In Tokyo, their first female governor secured a third term on Sunday in the capital's election. It was also a clear rejection of hard-right nationalist opponents.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28% and unchanged from Saturday and down -12 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is little-changed at -33 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at -78 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is still at -109 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.41% and unchanged. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.27% and also unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.77% and up +4 bps from a week ago, but unchanged from Saturday,On Wall Street this week we will get the early corporate results for Q2, led as usual by some big banks. These upcoming Q2 reports will be following an unusually strong Q1 set, one that generally gave upbeat forward guidance. There will be interest over whether those bullish views have continued.The price of gold will start today down -US$1 from Saturday at US$2389/oz. A week ago this price was US$2326/ozOil prices are marginally firmer at just on US$83/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$87/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today +10 bps firmer from Saturday and now at 61.5 USc. A week ago it was under 61 USc so a +½c rise since. Against the Aussie we are at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 56.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.6 and little-changed.The bitcoin price starts today at US$56,949 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news July starts on shaky ground everywhere although the ground is firmer in the US than China.As this is the first week of July, it will be heavy with PMI survey results everywhere (except New Zealand). But the most important release this week will be the American labour market report (their non-farms payrolls) for June on Saturday. Analysts currently expect another +180,000 gain. And before that we get their JOLTs report.In Europe, election results in France and England will shape the week. But so will CPI inflation rates. Not only do we get them for the EU and the other big EU economies, they also come for South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, and the Philippines too.Over the weekend, Japanese industrial production data was released showing it rose +2.8% in May from April, beating market forecasts. It also recorded an unusual year-on-year gain too. This was the second increase so far this year, mainly due to strong motor vehicles output. They think June will slip back but July will be another gainer.But it was all backwards in China.The official factory PMI was steady for the second straight month as expected. The latest result marked the fourth contraction in factory activity so far this year, as Beijing was struggles to spur an economic revival amid weak demand, deflation risks, and a protracted property weakness. New orders, foreign sales, and buying levels all declined for the second month in a rowAnd their official services PMI slipped as well, now barely expanding. While it was the 18th consecutive month of expansion in June, the latest result was the softest since last December, as new orders and new export orders continues to contract.On Wednesday we may get the Caixin versions of these two PMIs. Recently they have delivered better results, although not significantly different.In the US, the inflation measure the Fed prefers, the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) was unchanged in May from April following a +0.3% rise in April. This was what markets were expecting. That means the annual PCE rate slipped to 2.6%, its lowest since March 2021. (The May CPI was 3.3% and we get the June CPI on June 13 (NZT).Personal spending was up +2.4% from May a year ago, personal income a bit less.US durable goods orders were unchanged in May from April but were -1.2% lower than the same month a year ago. Of more concern however will be that capital goods orders fell -10% on the same basis.Eventually that may weigh on employment, but so far it hasn't. Last week initial claims for jobless benefits fell from the prior week. Compared to the same week a year ago the number of people on these benefits was higher, but in relation to their workforce, that gain was insignificant.US pending home sales for May fell when a bounce-back was expected, reinforcing the funk the American housing market is in. In fact local sawmills have been closing on low new home demand and even that hasn't stopped wood prices from falling to post-pandemic lows. Their residential construction and home-improvement markets are buckling.The widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey was little-changed in June, but it is up more than +6% from a year ago.The ECB said that its survey of consumer inflation expectations over the year ahead are now back to 2.8%, the same level they were at when they started this survey in early 2020. They peaked at 5.8% in October 2022. Those survey said they felt inflation ran at 5.8% over the prior 12 months. (It actually ran at 2.7% in the year to May but averaged 3.9% over the past twelve months. The June results comes later this week and is expected to be 2.5%.)In France, exit polls show that far-right candidates probably made gains in their weekend first-round elections, garnering about a third of the votes. Turnout was a 'high' 60%. But the final outcome is still uncertain. The second round will take place on July 7, 2024.The rise and rise of container freight rates continued last week, up +4% from the prior week to now be a massive 256% higher than the same week a year ago. Again the main culprit was outbound rates from China to Europe, hostage to the Yemeni Houthis and their piracy. Bulk cargo rates were up +2% for the week and are again in an uptrend. They are up +72% for the year.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39% and unchanged from Saturday. The price of gold will start today up +US$6 from Saturday at US$2326/oz.Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still under US$85/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today slightly softer from Saturday at just on 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 56.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still lower at 70.5.The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,628 back up +1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

8 suspected terrorists with ISIS ties arrested by ICE. 16-time champ Joey Chestnut banned from Nathan's hotdog eating contest after endorsement deal with vegan hotdog brand. Woke Wednesday. June CPI report. Retail employees wearing body cameras to deter shoplifters. 

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Dr. Francisco Monaldi, Director of the Latin America Energy Program, along with his colleague Dr. Tony Payan, Director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico, with Rice University's Baker Institute. Francisco last joined us on COBT in December 2022 (episode linked here) and is an expert on Latin American energy, policy, and economics. In addition to his role at the Baker Institute, Tony is a Professor of Social Sciences at the Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez and his research focuses primarily on border studies and US-Mexico relations. It was our pleasure to visit with Francisco and Tony for a Mexico and Latin America energy and geopolitics focused discussion. In our conversation, we examine President Claudia Sheinbaum's recent election, her background as a climate scientist and former Mayor of Mexico City, concerns about her independence and potential influence from former President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), violence in the recent election, implications for democracy and governance, regional perspectives on Mexico's political trajectory, and the potential future direction of Mexico's energy policies under President Sheinbaum. Francisco and Tony share their perspectives on Mexico's decline in energy production, Mexico as a huge consumer of US (especially Texas) natural gas, the broader implications of nearshoring for US-Mexico relations, renewable energy and climate policy, and the importance of future energy policies for economic stability. We discuss Mexico's economic challenges, broader Latin American trends, the potential impact of President AMLO's policies if they persist for another decade, upcoming changes to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the role of US diplomacy and political leverage in shaping Mexico's policies, the need for a comprehensive framework addressing trade, immigration, and crime, and much more. It was an enlightening discussion and we are thankful to Francisco and Tony for sharing their insights with us all. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that this week is crucial for bonds, with the June CPI and FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday potentially confirming or dispelling speculation about a 2024 Fed rate cut. On the crude oil front, WTI has rallied back to ~78/bbl after last week's overselling post-OPEC meeting due to production cut confusion/uneasiness. OPEC's June Monthly Oil Report (linked here) showed unchanged global oil demand estimates for 2024 and 2025, while the IEA's global oil demand estimates (~1.0mmbpd below OPEC's) will be released Wednesday. The 12-month natural gas strip has rallied to ~$3.50/MMBtu (highest since Nov '23) driven by extreme heat forecasted through the month of June which might begin to influence current sizable E&P production curtailments. In Europe, several equity markets sold off, and EU bond yields spiked, notably in France, due to heightened political risk from the EU Parliamentary vote. Conservatives fared better than expected and Green Parties lost significant seats in Belgium, France, Germany and Italy, which could put future climate goals/policies at risk. He ended by noting US equity money flows, usually directed towards Emerging/International markets for diversification, are either stagnant or reduced due to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's outperformance driven by AI and Tech equities. Jeff Tillery noted there has been significant news about the Mexican stock market's performance with Mexico and Brazil underperforming over the past one and three years, influenced by factors such as border issues, higher interest rates, post-election impacts, and cartel problems, but that Mexico's reshoring trend suggests potential gains. We hope you find the discussion as insightful and interesting as

12th June: Crypto & Coffee at 8

Cooler than expected June CPI and PPI from July made disinflation a major part of the consensus narrative.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

In this Episode, James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle review the Market Statistics as of June 30,2023 and update their listeners on Inflation. Market Statistics – June 2023 : Market Statistics - Statistiques de marché (pwlcapital.com) Read The Script: 1) Introduction: François Doyon La Rochelle: You're listening to Capital Topics, episode #55! This is a monthly podcast about passive asset management and financial and tax planning ideas for the long-term investor. Your hosts for this podcast are James Parkyn and me François Doyon La Rochelle, both portfolio managers with PWL Capital.   In this episode, we will discuss the following points: - For our first topic, we will review and comment the market statistics for the first half of the year. - And for our next topic, we will give you an update on inflation. - Please note before we move on to our topics that we will take a summer break. We will be back for our next episode on September 28th. Enjoy!   2) Mid-Year Review of Markets: François Doyon La Rochelle: I will start today with a review of the market statistics as of June 30, 2023. So, after a very difficult year in 2022 when pretty much all asset classes posted big losses, I'm sure our listeners will be relieved and happy to hear that in the first half of 2023 stocks and bonds are generating positive returns. These positive returns are across the board as all the asset classes we follow, except for one, are in positive territory. As a reminder, you can find our Market Statistics report on our Capital Topics website in the resources section or on the PWL Capital website in our team section. We will provide the link for the market stats on the podcast page. James Parkyn: Indeed François, after the historical devastation where both stocks and bonds were hammered with double-digit negative returns, investors should be quite pleased with the returns so far this year. François Doyon La Rochelle: Totally James, particularly given the fact that most market pundits were skeptical about the outlook for markets entering the year. Many of them were forecasting a recession that has not yet materialized. James Parkyn: Correct it has not materialized yet, GDP growth continues to be positive, personal consumption remains stubbornly strong and jobs are still being created at a strong pace both here in Canada and the U.S. Market Pundits are however expecting GDP growth to slow and even contract in the coming months on the back of the historic interest rate tightening cycle imposed by the central banks. As a reminder to our listeners, to tame inflation that had risen to multi decades highs last year - 8.1% here in Canada and 9.1% in the U.S., the Bank of Canada increased its overnight rate from 0.25% in March 2022 to 5% in July 2023. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve increased the Fed fund rates from 0.25% to 5.25% over the same period. François Doyon La Rochelle: I must say that this tightening cycle had the desired effect on inflation since it has come down here in Canada and the U.S. to 2.8% and 3% respectively which is close to the long-term target of 2% set by both central banks. This said, the tightening cycle caused collateral damages particularly in the U.S. regional banks as the sharp interest rate increases left some banks in delicate positions prompting the intervention of the Federal Reserve. James Parkyn: Regional banks were not the only worry for the markets in the first half of the year, there was, yet another debt ceiling political crisis in the U.S. that dominated the headlines for several weeks until an agreement to raise the debt limit was reached in June. François Doyon La Rochelle: Despite all this noise, the stock markets have had a strong first half, particularly in the U.S. and the internationally developed markets. Those equities are now in the bull market territory and have risen more than 20% from the lows reached in October 2022. We will look at the details a bit later, but the S&P500 Index in the U.S. is up, in U.S. dollars, by 27.5% since the lows, and the index for internationally developed equities, the MSCI EAFE (Which is the acronym of Europe, Asia and the Far East) is up roughly 32.8% since the lows. Here in Canada, we are not yet in a bull market since the S&P/TSX Composite is up only 12.8% from October's 2022 lows. James Parkyn: This may be surprising for some investors who are still emotionally caught up in the recency bias of last year. Capital market history teaches us that strong bull markets most often follow painful bear markets. François Doyon La Rochelle: Absolutely James and there is a good chart from Dimensional in their mid-year review that shows, based on data from the Fama/French Total US Market Index extending from July 1926 to December 2022, that historically, after a market decline of 20% or more, the average return one year later is 22.2%, the cumulative average return after 3 years is 41.1% and the cumulative average return after 5 years is 71.8%. James Parkyn: Yes, this data is very powerful as it is a stark reminder that you need to stay disciplined in bear markets by staying invested and sticking to your long-term plan. You can't afford to be out of the market when it turns positive. François Doyon La Rochelle: Despite this nice rally from last year's bottom, it must be mentioned that the main indexes have not fully recovered to where they were at their all-time highs. James Parkyn: Effectively, the S&P500, the MSCI EAFE, and the S&P/TSX Composite are still between 5% to 7% off their previous peaks as of June 30th. François Doyon La Rochelle: With this being said let's now look at the market statistics as of June 30th. Let's start with the Canadian fixed income. 2022 was a historically difficult year for bonds as it was the worst year in many decades. Canadian short-term bonds in 2022 were down 4.04% and the total bond market, which holds longer-dated maturities was down by a whopping 11.7%. Year-to-date as of June 30th, despite an increase in the interest rate of 1% by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian short-term bonds are up 1.01% and the Canadian total bond market is up 2.51%. James Parkyn: It's nice to see positive numbers in the bond market again, however, the performance you are quoting Francois is total return numbers, which includes interest income. If we look at bond prices, remember bond yields and bond prices move in opposite directions, short-term bonds on a price basis were down slightly. Longer-duration bond prices were up a bit. François Doyon La Rochelle: You are right James, bond prices are down but especially in the short end because of the impact of the latest interest rate increases from the BOC. As an indication the yield on the benchmark Government of Canada 2-year bond was 3.82% at the beginning of the year and it now sits at 4.21%, so the price went down. The yield on the Government of Canada 10-year bond was 3.30% at the start of the year and it was 3.26% on June 30th, so the price went up. James Parkyn: For those looking for the safety of GICs, there are some juicy rates available now. For example, you can get over 5.5% for a 1-year GIC and about 5.2% for a 5-year. François Doyon La Rochelle: Now let's look at equities, stock markets around the globe were up everywhere year-to-date. Canadian equities were up by 5.70% led mainly by growth stocks since the large and mid-cap growth stocks had a performance of 8.1% versus 4.0% for large and mid-cap value stocks. Small-cap stocks also delivered a positive return with a performance of 3.0% year-to-date as of June 30th. In the U.S., the total stock market is up 16.2% in USD but because the Canadian dollar gained relative to the US dollar the performance in Canadian dollars was 13.5%. Year-to-date, large and mid-cap growth stocks vastly outperformed value stocks with a performance in Canadian dollars of 26% versus only 2.7% for value stocks. Small cap returned 5.6% in Canadian dollars with small growth again outperforming value with a performance of 10.9% versus 0.1% for small value. James Parkyn: This is a complete reversal of what happened last year when large and mid-cap growth stocks were down significantly more than large and mid-cap value stocks. What is significant this year, is that a handful of mega-cap stocks are dominating the returns in the U.S. stock market. According to Morningstar, as of May 31st, 97% of the return on the Morningstar U.S. Large and Mid-Cap Index, which performs closely with the S&P500 Index, came from the 10 largest stocks in the index. This means that only 3% of the return came from all the over 700 stocks. François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, year-to-date performance in the U.S. market is very concentrated in a few stocks and a few sectors. Just looking at the top 5 holdings of the S&P500, which includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, and Alphabet (Google) they have a performance year-to-date as of June 30th ranging from positive 36% for Alphabet to a whopping 189% for NVIDIA. In terms of sectors, 4 out of 7 sectors are experiencing negative returns in the first half. The sectors that are performing well are the technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors. According to an RBC Global Asset Management report, since January 1st, 2020, only seven stocks in the S&P500 Index have produced more than half its cumulative return and these stocks are Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA and Tesla. James Parkyn: Wow, this is impressive, but it means that if you are a stock picker and you did not hold any of these stocks in your portfolio you probably did poorly compared to the index. Remember there are thousands of stocks in the U.S. market and even more globally and research shows that most stocks, over very long periods, underperform one-month U.S. Treasury bills. This capital market history fact comes as a major surprise to most investors. François Doyon La Rochelle: That's correct and that's one of the reasons why stock pickers have trouble beating indexes and why we use broadly diversified portfolios to make sure we have the winners in our clients' accounts. Finally, looking at internationally developed equities, large and mid-cap stocks were also up year-to-date, they were up by 12.1% in local currency. In Canadian dollars, international developed equities were up 9.1% since the Canadian Dollar appreciated against the basket of currencies included in the MSCI EAFE Index. Here again, large and mid-cap growth stocks have outperformed value stocks with a performance of 11.5% in Canadian dollars compared to 6.7% for large and mid-cap value stocks. Similarly, in the U.S. and Canada, the small-cap stocks trailed large and mid-caps with a performance of 3.1%, that's also in Canadian dollars. To conclude, emerging markets lagged compared to developed markets with a year-to-date performance of 2.6%, and contrary to developed markets' value and small-cap stocks fared better than growth and large-cap stocks. So this wraps up the review of what happened in the Markets during the first half of the year.   3) Update on Inflation: Francois Doyon La Rochelle: Our Main Topic today is an Update on Inflation. We have covered Inflation a lot since the spring of 2022. James, maybe we can start with a summary of where are we at now with Inflation Rates? James Parkyn: Francois, Inflation cooled last month to its lowest pace in two years. As indicated earlier in the podcast, in the U.S., the consumer-price index or CPI climbed 3% in June from a year earlier, sharply below the recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The index for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, in June also posted its smallest monthly increase in more than two years. The annual rate of inflation is now at the lowest it has been in just over two years. While the rate of inflation in the June CPI report remains above where the Fed wants it to be, the data suggests clear progress in getting price pressures down toward more acceptable levels. François Doyon La Rochelle: In Canada, the news was even better. The latest Inflation number came in at 2.8% in June. What about Europe and the UK James? James Parkyn: In Europe, inflation has eased to 5.5% in the 20 countries using the euro and to 7.9% in the U.K., but that's still far above the Central Banks' 2% target. François Doyon La Rochelle: Does there appear to be a consensus among economists? Can Central Banks declare victory over Inflation? James Parkyn: Nick Timaros in the WSJ reported in a recent article that: “Some Fed policymakers and economists are concerned that the easing in inflation will be temporary. They see inflation's slowdown as long overdue after the fading of pandemic-related shocks that pushed up rents and the prices of transportation and cars. And they worry underlying price pressures could persist, requiring the Fed to lift rates higher and hold them there for longer.” So their biggest fear François is about whether wages and price growth can slow enough without an economic downturn. François Doyon La Rochelle: Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University is quoted in that article. She states, “While things seem to be heading in the right direction with inflation, we are only at the start of a long process”. So, James, what are economists on the other side of the debate saying? James Parkyn: Nick Timaros goes on to state: “Other economists say that thinking ignores signs of current economic slowing that will gradually subdue price pressures. They also argue inflation will slow enough to push “real” or inflation-adjusted interest rates higher in the coming months. That would provide additional monetary restraint even if this week's rate increase is the last of the current tightening cycle”. François Doyon La Rochelle: So, the debate is really around wage inflation. The first camp of economists is nervous that there is too little slack and too much demand in the economy. They are not confident that inflation will return to the Fed's 2% inflation target in the coming years. James Parkyn: Exactly. Many of these economists worry that wage growth is too strong. Without a recession, they see a tight labor market pushing up core inflation next year. Since an overheated labor market is likely to show up first in wages, many see pay gains as a good proxy of underlying inflation pressure. The thinking is that 3.5% annual wage growth would be consistent with inflation between 2% and 2.5%, assuming productivity grows around 1% to 1.5% a year. François Doyon La Rochelle: According to the U.S Labor Department's employment-cost index, wages and salaries rose 5% in the January-to-March period from a year earlier. The Fed watches this index closely because it is the most comprehensive measure of wage growth. James Parkyn: The second camp of economists believes there is ample evidence that the labor market is cooling, in turn reducing inflationary pressures. They point out that the amount of time it takes unemployed workers to find new work has been growing. Increases in hours worked by private-sector employees have slowed along with the number of unfilled jobs. Benjamin Tal, the deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, is quoted in the Global Mail that: “He expects the economy to be bleeding vacancies as opposed to jobs. Namely, companies will not be hiring but not be firing.” François Doyon La Rochelle: The encouraging news about inflation falling is that it has created space for the Central banks to be more patient and take their time about any further rate hikes. James Parkyn: To support that point François, the Fed in the U.S. last month held its benchmark federal funds rate steady in a range between 5% and 5.25%. This was the first pause after 10 consecutive increases since March 2022, when officials raised it from near zero. As a reminder for our audience, the conventional thinking is that Interest-rate increases slow the economy through financial markets by lowering asset prices and raising the cost of borrowing. As we can see by what has happened in the financial markets and the economy, this has yet to transpire. François Doyon La Rochelle: On July 27th, the Fed increased the Fed Funds rate by 25 Basis points to a target range between 5.25% and 5.50%. This was widely expected by the markets. This matches the prior peak reached over 2006-07. You'd have to go back to 2001 to find a period when rates were higher than today. The speed and size of the hikes (over 500 basis points in 16 months) are unmatched by any Fed tightening campaign since 1980. That said, CPI inflation is getting close to the Fed's 2% target. What are Central Bankers saying about the latest inflation numbers James? James Parkyn: They are all staying on message insisting the pain will only get worse if inflation slips out of control. The governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey was quoted in the Financial Times: “Our job is to return inflation to target, and we will do what is necessary. I understand the concerns that go with that, but I'm afraid I always have to say – that it is a worse outcome if we don't get inflation back to target.” Despite the risk of recession François, I feel the central bankers are emphasizing that they expect to keep rates at their peaks for some time – likely longer than stock and bond markets expect. They also appear to me to be very synchronized. François Doyon La Rochelle: I agree James. The Bank for International Settlements (or BIS), the Switzerland-based global organization of central banks appears to agree as well. In a recent report, the BIS highlighted that since early 2021, almost 95% of the world's central banks have raised rates. Even more than during the inflationary oil price shocks of the 1970s. The BIS called it “the most synchronized and intense monetary policy tightening in decades.” James Parkyn: I think there is increasing acknowledgment that Policy mistakes were made during the Pandemic. That in turn requires that interest rates be normalized at much higher levels than the ultra-low rates in effect during the pandemic. François Doyon La Rochelle: James, what are economists saying about the impact of fiscal policy or government spending on Inflation? James Parkyn: David Parkinson writing in the Globe & Mail recently, asked the following question: “How much of Canada's nagging inflation problem can we blame on government spending?” In his article in the wake of the Bank of Canada's latest interest-rate increase, he highlights the fact Governor Tiff Macklem noted in the bank's latest economic projections, government spending growth is running at about two percent. This is on par with the estimated rate that the economy's potential output is growing. This implies that the government's contribution to the economy's supply-demand balance is neutral. In other words, it's not helping the excess demand problem that continues to fuel inflation pressures, but it's not compounding the problem, either. But he also goes on to make the case that if you compare government spending to pre-pandemic levels, fiscal policy is stimulative. François Doyon La Rochelle: Intuitively, governments could also help fight inflation by reducing deficit-funded spending to cut demand. This would lower the pressure on Central Banks to raise interest rates further. James Parkyn: To that point Francois, Gita Gopinath deputy executive director of the International Monetary Fund, in a speech at the European Central Bank's (ECB) annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, last month argued “Some side effects of fighting inflation with monetary policy could be reduced by giving fiscal policy a bigger role. Indeed, economic conditions call for fiscal tightening,” She went on to say: “Given the economic conditions we have, both because of high inflation and record high debt levels, the two would call for a tightening of fiscal policy. If you look at projected fiscal deficits for many G7 countries, they look too high for far too long.” François Doyon La Rochelle: She also warned and I quote her: “Central banks must accept the “uncomfortable truth” that they may have to tolerate a longer period of inflation above their 2 percent target to avert a financial crisis.” James, is there good news for Investors with lower Inflation? James Parkyn: Yes, I believe there is good news for Investors in rates staying higher for longer. I also think that the real news is that we are now starting to get positive Real Interest rates. Finally, many Economists are forecasting lower Central Bank rates as early as 2024 and as far out as 2025. Morningstar chief economist Preston Caldwell stated in a recent report that “Inflation is now showing broad-based signs of deceleration,” says “The Fed is still likely to hike in its July meeting, but today's CPI Inflation report supports our view that the Fed will pivot to aggressive cutting in 2024 after inflation falls.” François, we now know that the Fed effectively increased their Fed funds rate after July's meeting. François Doyon La Rochelle: For investors who have been avoiding fixed income because they're afraid of rising rates, now is the time to revisit their fixed income portfolio. Investors are getting compensated on a real basis, meaning after inflation, from their bond investments, and that hasn't been the case for quite some time. James Parkyn: The perfect example is we are now getting much better rates on GICs. Recently, the GIC rates were 5.5% for 1 year, and about 5.2% for 5 years. These rates are significantly higher than our Estimate for Expected Return on Bonds of 4.26%. Our listeners can find our latest PWL Financial Planning Assumptions paper published on our PWL Website. Despite rising bond prices generally, yields are now higher than they have been for most of the past decade. François Doyon La Rochelle: Right now, you're getting a good income out of a fixed income. Rates look attractive. On a “real” basis, rates also look attractive when compared to inflation expectations for the coming years. For example, the PWL estimate for inflation is 2.2% a year, meanwhile, an investor buying a 5-year GIC, like you mentioned James, would get 5.2% or a real yield of 3%. James Parkyn: In Conclusion Francois, the key for Investors is that even if the Fed raises rates a bit further, the end of the current cycle of increases is on the horizon unless there is a dramatic resurgence in inflation. As we have said many times, we do not preach market timing about stocks AND bonds. Specifically for bonds, don't try to time the peak in interest rates. I want to share with our listeners an interesting quote from Dimensional in their Mid-year Review report: “What investors do know is that markets will continue to quickly process information as it becomes available. A long-term plan, one focused on individual goals and built on confidence in market prices, can put investors in the best place for a good experience, whatever may be in store”. François Doyon La Rochelle: In other words, James, don't try to guess the end of the hiking cycle. As a reminder to our Listeners, our discipline is to invest with “The Investor Mindset, focused on the long term”. We don't want to be led astray by short-term noise in the financial media and recent financial market volatility. This challenge is daunting and applies to all Investors including us Professionals. We have said it often on our Podcast: “It is simple to say but not easy to do: We must always be cognizant that we can fall into a trap of trying to “Forecast the Future”.   4) Conclusion: François Doyon La Rochelle: Thank you, James Parkyn for sharing your expertise and your knowledge. James Parkyn: You are welcome, Francois. François Doyon La Rochelle: That's it for episode #55 of Capital Topics! Do not forget, if you would like to submit questions or suggestions for the show, please email us at: capitaltopics@pwlcapital.com  Also, if you like our podcast, please share it when with family and friends and if you have not subscribed to it, please do. Again, thank you for tuning in and please join us for our next episode on September 28 exceptionally as we are taking a break for the summer. Enjoy your summer and see you soon!

In this episode of SYF Podcast, John Comino and David Shih go through disucssing & exploring the latest trends & observations in around property & finance including: - June CPI data and how will it play out with RBA Cash Rate decision in August - Early indicators of investors sell off - is this the beginning? - Should investors be buying renovated or unrenovated property? And should you renovate now or leave it later? And much more! DISCLAIMER:  Host/Guest are not Financial Adviser/Investment Consultant. All opinions expressed by host or his guests are for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment/financial advice of any kind.  "Spark your FIRE" and its team are not liable to the listeners or any other party, for the listeners use of, or reliance on, any information received, directly or indirectly, from the content in any circumstances. Please conduct your own research and obtain independent legal, financial, taxation and/or other professional advice in respect of any decision made in connection with this audio. Contact -  sparkyourfirepodcast@gmail.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is hard to beat and the US Fed is unsure it has done enough yet.First up today, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates by +25 bps to 5.25%-5.5%, in line with market expectations. It was a unanimous decision. That takes them to their highest levels since January 2001. At this level it matches the RBNZ OCR.Because it was expected, there was little reaction in financial markets on the announcement, with equity, bond and currency markets deciding the increase was already priced in. Perhaps the bond market is showing some caution however after the press conference. Even though markets don't expect it, the Fed did leave the door open for more increases because they seem unsure they have done enough to quash inflation.Elsewhere in the US, mortgage applications eased -1.8% last week, the first drop in three weeks. That fall came despite mortgage interest rates being essentially unchanged.Sales of new single-family houses dropped -2.5% in June, retreating from May's 15-month high. The June level was lower than expected. Sales in the West were down -14%, while those in the Midwest tumbled -28%. On the other hand, sales in the South rose +4.3%, and those in the Northeast surged +21%. It was an unusually mixed picture regionally.Across the Pacific, Singapore's industrial production rose in June from May, reversing a soft patch earlier in the year. It was a bigger gain that anticipated, and trimmed the year-on-year retreat to a smaller level than expected.In June in the EU, bank lending to households rose +1.7% from a year ago in June 2023, the lowest growth rate since May 2016. On the other hand, lending to companies grew by +3.0%, but it still marked the slowest rate of growth in seven years. The overall private sector credit growth, encompassing both households and non-financial corporations, decelerated to +2.0% in June, representing the slowest expansion since August 2016.And even these levels may be hard to sustain. An ECB bank survey showed that loan demand is falling sharply now as the ECB tightening bites harder. Some shifts in this survey seem quite large, but in the past such big shifts (either way) don't end up in actual lending. However, it is still a worrying signal.In Australia, CPI inflation rose +6.0% in the June quarter from the same period a year ago. But it is slowing; it only rose at the rate of 3.2% annualised from the March quarter to the June quarter. New Zealand has already released its June CPI rate and that was up +6.0% as well. Australia also tracks CPI inflation monthly, and the year-on-year June month rate was 5.4%, down from 5.6% in May. Housing and food costs are keeping inflation elevated in Australia.Also part of the pressure holding inflation up is electricity prices. In the background, wholesale electricity prices increased +31% in June over the March quarter, even if they weren't as high as last year's record levels.The UST 10yr yield will start today at 3.85% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$1968/oz and up +US$6 from yesterday.And oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$79/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$82.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged at just on 62.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are slightly firmer at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down nearly -½c at 56 euro cents. That all means the TWI-5 has held at 69.9.The bitcoin price has firmed slightly again since this time yesterday. It is up +0.2% and now is at US$29,311 US$29,266. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The euro-zone may be mired in recession, but that won't stop the ECB from raising rates again this coming week in order to get inflation – a “greedy beast”, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – under control. Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist Jack Allen-Reynolds tells David Wilder why another 25 basis point hikes is a done deal for this Thursday, but also why the ECB could take rates up to 4% from 3.5% now and keep them there – and what that means for an already-faltering European economy. Plus, Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain and Climate Economics head David Oxley discuss some of the macro, market and policy risks around the return of El Niño.And, in an exclusive clip from our UK ‘Drop-In' about the June CPI report, Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory, Jonas Goltermann and Ashley Webb tell clients why we've raised our Bank Rate forecast, what recession will mean for the inflation outlook and what lies ahead for the Gilt market.Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

Recent cooling inflation data had an impact on the potential Fed rate hike expectations and the June CPI report shows a slowdown in core inflation which has implications for the US dollar and the overall economy. What should you make of these ups and downs? We cover it all in this week's edition of The Fastest Four Minutes In Finance!   Originally Aired: 07.19.2023

‘I think as we celebrate as consumers we just need to be cautious of that core sticky inflation': Neo Ralefeta – Investec Treasury Structuring.

The mainstream media is now spinning last week's inflation reports to message that inflation is now under control, therefore the Fed won't need to raise rates further, and that in turn means a ‘soft landing' with no recession. Dr. Rasmus dissects both the consumer price index and producer price index reports issued last week. Reports show that ‘goods' (manufactured things and construction) prices have abated in price, but Services prices (80% of US economy) remain stuck in the 5-6% annual range. In fact, June CPI shows services prices rising more (6.2%) compared to May (5.3%). While some sectors of services are declining (airline,hotels prices) rents remain high. Simultaneously, after falling sharply, energy (gasoline, etc.) prices are rising again as are commodities, housing and utilities. Rasmus explains some of the questionable methods the US Labor Dept uses to dampen actual price hikes—like ‘owners equivalent rent', ‘hedonic pricing', outmoded ‘weights' given certain goods, and by selectively using 14 different ‘base periods' for different key items in the index. Rasmus concludes, services inflation and price gouging remain the defining conditions of current chronic inflation. And that the Fed can't raise interest rates higher without further exacerbating the regional banking instability

#recession #inflation #deflation #taxes #employment #unemploymentIndividual income tax payments to Uncle Sam are running almost half a trillion (with a "T") behind same months in FY 2022. Withholdings are way off and claimed refunds are way up. At the same time, the June CPI showed broad-based disinflation and a little deflation. These two results aren't unrelated.Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE EPISODESYouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic:https://bit.ly/3LH8JlVDISCLOSURESJeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.

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The stellar June CPI inflation report is top of mind for Mark, Cris and Bernard.  The report arguably couldn't have been better, as the conversation makes clear.  The podcast then turns to a discussion of whether the worst is over for the troubled single family housing market with Lance Lambert, the real estate editor for Fortune. No one has a better pulse of the market than Lance.For more on Lance Lambert, click here or follow him on twitter @NewsLambertFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

As the saying goes, there's no place like home. And more and more countries think that's the case when it comes to their gold. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about why many central banks and sovereign wealth funds are bringing their gold home. He also talks about gold's performance through the first half of 2023 and the June CPI data. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/44uH3un Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news. TOPICS DISCUSSED -More countries are repatriating their gold -Gold was one of the best-performing assets during H1 2023 -What drove the gold price through the first six months of the year? -June CPI data -What does the latest CPI mean for the Fed? -When will high-interest rates crack something else in the economy?

US equities higher this week, more than erasing last week's declines despite some pullback Friday. June CPI was the overarching focus of the week, coming in softer than consensus for both headline and core. Still, this and other data did little to shift expectations for near-term Fed policy. Q2 earnings began with four big banks Friday, and while all posted beats, analysts had some areas of concern.

The US market rally extended as the June CPI data was a lot softer than what analysts were anticipating. This has reduced chances of significant rate hikes as far as the US fed is concerned, which led to a rally in equity markets. The NASDAQ popped over a percent in yesterday's trading session. Even the European indices ended with strong gains yesterday.  However, crude oil prices too gain further traction, Brent futures for the first time since May went up over the $80 a barrel mark gaining close to a percent in yesterday's trading session. Meanwhile, the Indian markets in the last hour of trade yesterday witnessed a significant pull back from the day's highs. The last-hour trade of course was impacted by the index re-balancing flows as HDFC Limited bowed out of the bourses yesterday, before the corporate action where the company got merged with the HDFC Bank. We did see the Nifty IT index underperform. Today, all eyes will be on IT  stocks as we had two major results that came in post-market hours yesterday, with both TCS and HCL Tech. It has been a muted start for the first quarter results from the technology sector.  On another note, the core continues to remain sticky, while the IIP data was quite strong wth industrial production remaining quite robust.  Today, some of the key results to keep an eye out for include Wipro, Central Bank.  The GIFT Nifty is indicating a gap-up start for the Indian benchmark indices. Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today's session

Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer discussed the cooler-than-expected June CPI inflation data that resulted in fresh 52-week highs for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Are the markets overbought? In an exclusive, Jim interviewed Oracle CEO Safra Catz on the floor of the NYSE after her company rang the opening bell. Also in focus: Microsoft and Activision after a federal judge rejected the FTC and gave the companies' merger deal a green light, Domino's shares surge on the company's partnership with Uber, playing the “Magnificent 7” stocks, Jamie Dimon on Fed tightening, a look ahead to David Faber's exclusive interview with Disney CEO Bog Iger from Sun Valley, Idaho on Thursday. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, joins to break down the June CPI reading and outlook for the Fed's next move. Tim Craighead, Director of Research and Senior European Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to give us an outlook for equities in the UK and Europe and breaks down UK stagnation and uncertainty. Natalie Trevithick, Head of Investment Grade Credit Strategy at Payden & Rygel, joins to discuss bond market moves amid inflation data and the recent jobs report. Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to break down the Fed's next move after the June CPI reading. Greg Friedman, CEO of Peachtree Group, discusses commercial real estate. John Authers, Senior Editor with Bloomberg Opinion, joins to talk about the June CPI and outlook for the Fed and the economy. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, joins to discuss the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index and MBA Mortgage applications. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association ("WNA"). Sama joined the WNA as Director General in late 2020 and has had an extensive career in nuclear with over 20 years of experience in nuclear engineering and energy policy, serving in industry, academia, and international organizations. The World Nuclear Association represents the global nuclear industry to promote the industry and importantly, provide authoritative information to key organizations and political authorities. We were delighted to connect with Sama for a global nuclear discussion. It was spectacular and wide-ranging and we so enjoyed Sama's practical nature and worldwide perspective.   To start the discussion, Sama outlined the organization's history and current member base of over 190 members in 44 countries. The WNA's members are responsible for most of world uranium mining, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication; all reactor vendors; major nuclear engineering, construction, and waste management companies, and much of the world's nuclear generation. We discuss how the perception of nuclear energy has changed since Sama joined in 2020 and the organization's key areas of focus including working with policy makers and market designers globally to develop pragmatic policies for low-carbon energy sources, engaging the finance community to support profitable nuclear projects, and developing a strong global supply chain and talent pool. Sama shares her perspective on the state of nuclear in almost every part of the world, the opportunities for nuclear beyond electricity, financing and funding, novel applications, and the global supply chain. During the discussion, Sama mentions the periodic forecasts the WNA performs (the World Nuclear Association Fuel Report), linked here. Sama is one of the original founders of the North American Young Generation in Nuclear (linked here) and we touch on the importance of drawing new talent and fostering diversity, inclusivity and equity within the global nuclear community. We also cover nuclear power in the developing world and the opportunity for nuclear power to serve as a catalyst for social and economic development with collaboration between nuclear organizations and development banks. For more nuclear news, the World Nuclear News website is linked here. The entire discussion with Sama left us more bullish on the potential for greater use of nuclear power globally.   The Veriten team kicked off the show: Mike Bradley highlighted two key economic stats this week (June CPI & PPI) which could influence interest rate policy at the July 26th FOMC meeting. He also noted the recent trade higher in WTI crude oil price (higher end of its recent $65-$75/bbl. trading band) due to OPEC's & Saudi's commitment to maintain their respective production cuts through August as well as China taking additional economic stimulus steps. He noted that these actions have shifted both Brent and WTI structure from contango back to backwardation. Mike flagged last week's energy equity sector outperformance and noted a few recent interesting equity market developments including an upcoming Nasdaq 100 rebalance (July 24th) which could result in temporary weakness in several of its largest AI/Tech equity members. He also noted another construction setback for the Equitrans Mountain Valley Pipeline and wrapped up by highlighting Oklo Inc. (an advanced fission technology company) announcing a deal to go Public via Merger with AltC Acquisition Corp. (a Sam Altman led SPAC). Oklo's press release is

(7/12/23) Markets' anticipation of inflation would result in a moderate decline (in fact, June CPI printed at .2% for a 3% inflation rate). Meanwhile the NFIB report reflected improving moods among small businesses, and other data shows consumers are more confident about spending money = more inflation. How do companies protect profit margins? Cut costs and/or raise prices = inflation. Speculative mood is returning to markets. Charlie Munger: The first $100k is the toughest. avoid distractions from long-term goals by short-term narratives. Things rich people do: Shopping with coupons (remember S&G Green Stamps?) The significance of your savings rate. Choosing to build wealth (avg. work week = 34.5/hours vs entrepreneurs' work habits). Savings strategies & priorities and avoiding the lifestyle creep. There are no shortcuts to building wealth: Saving 30% of income, for starters. The flaws in modern financial planning include unrealistic gains and ignorance of negative returns: Why pensions fail. Managing need, wants, wishes. SEG-1: CPI Day: Markets Anticipation of Inflation SEG-2: How to Make Your First $100k SEG-3: Savings Strategies & Priorities SEG-4: Fatal Flaws in Modern Financial Planning Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKIfpOqAENM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell , "Why We've All Become Bettors Against the CPI," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlsvcU1JnIA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Surplus Cash is Ending" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd02kgURCXA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Register for our next web event: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6816835709464/WN_ItmsNXpsRs2uKE6xOrJtdg ------- Articles mentioned in today's show: Q2 Earnings Season Begins – Will It Support The Bulls? https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BuildingWealth #FinancialPlanning #Savings #ConsumerSpending #Economy #CPI #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing

Investors are counting down to today's June CPI report, with expectations for the headline number to fall to its lowest level since March 2021. Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi gives his thoughts. Plus, investor sentiment appears to be shifting due to worries around more rate hikes and a potential recession. Investopedia's Caleb Silver explains the latest data. And, a growing number of banks are becoming increasingly cautious around equities. RBC Brewin Dolphin's Janet Mui and GenTrust's Mimi Duff discuss the markets.

(7/12/23) Markets' anticipation of inflation would result in a moderate decline (in fact, June CPI printed at .2% for a 3% inflation rate). Meanwhile the NFIB report reflected improving moods among small businesses, and other data shows consumers are more confident about spending money = more inflation. How do companies protect profit margins? Cut costs and/or raise prices = inflation. Speculative mood is returning to markets. Charlie Munger: The first $100k is the toughest. avoid distractions from long-term goals by short-term narratives. Things rich people do: Shopping with coupons (remember S&G Green Stamps?) The significance of your savings rate.  Choosing to build wealth (avg. work week = 34.5/hours vs entrepreneurs' work habits). Savings strategies & priorities and avoiding the lifestyle creep. There are no shortcuts to building wealth: Saving 30% of income, for starters. The flaws in modern financial planning include unrealistic gains and ignorance of negative returns: Why pensions fail. Managing need, wants, wishes. SEG-1: CPI Day: Markets Anticipation of Inflation SEG-2: How to Make Your First $100k SEG-3: Savings Strategies & Priorities SEG-4: Fatal Flaws in Modern Financial Planning   Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKIfpOqAENM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell , "Why We've All Become Bettors Against the CPI," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlsvcU1JnIA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 --------  Our previous show is here: "Surplus Cash is Ending" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd02kgURCXA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Register for our next web event: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6816835709464/WN_ItmsNXpsRs2uKE6xOrJtdg ------- Articles mentioned in today's show: Q2 Earnings Season Begins – Will It Support The Bulls? https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BuildingWealth #FinancialPlanning #Savings #ConsumerSpending #Economy #CPI #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing

Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti dissect the June Consumer Price Index report and discuss the next phase of inflation. Activision win is big for Microsoft and even smaller tech firms. Bank of America fined $150M over 'Junk Fees' and fake accounts. Ask Todd: Last minute medicaid eligibility.

On this week's episode of the AAP Podcast, AAP's Chris Versace and Smarts editor Todd Campbell review the better-than-expected June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report but share why the road to the Fed's 2% target may not be as immediate as some are hoping. Todd breaks down the upcoming special rebalance for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), sharing the ins and outs as well as why investors shouldn't attempt to game the rebalancing action. The two then pivot to upcoming bank earnings from JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C), discussing the recent upward move in big bank EPS expectations and some of the reasons behind that. They also discuss what they will be focused on in those reports, and what signals they will be watching for both the economy and the consumer. Chris and Todd also share why they have some reservations about the consumer entering the December quarter, and why in the coming months they will both be watching real wage growth like a hawk.         

Prime Day starts today and some consumers will be clearing out their cart, thanks to big deals. We’ll discuss the reasoning behind savings events, and what retailers hope these sales will do for, well, sales. Plus, the PGA Tour is before a Senate committee today to defend their merger with LIV and economists await the June CPI.

Prime Day starts today and some consumers will be clearing out their cart, thanks to big deals. We’ll discuss the reasoning behind savings events, and what retailers hope these sales will do for, well, sales. Plus, the PGA Tour is before a Senate committee today to defend their merger with LIV and economists await the June CPI.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off best levels after rallying in the last hour of trading. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished up 0.93%, 0.67%, and 0.55%, respectively. Looking ahead, the market awaits the highly anticipated June CPI out tomorrow morning. Headline CPI is expected to rise from 0.1% in May to 0.3% in June, though annualized CPI is expected to fall 0.9 points m/m to 3.1% in June, which would be lowest since March of 2021 and down from its June 2022 cyclical peak of 9.1%. Meanwhile, Core CPI is expected to tick down 0.1 points to 0.3% m/m, while annualized core is expected to fall 0.3 points to 5.0%, which would be lowest since November of 2021.

We present our probabilities for tomorrow's June CPI report, which is an important catalyst for markets. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

US futures are pointing to a lower open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened with losses, following a mixed Asian session. June CPI is the main event for this week. Forecasts are for an uptick in monthly headline inflation but a drop in core. China tech stocks outperformed in Monday's Asian session after regulators ended a multi-year probe of Ant Group by levying $1B fine over company's planned IPO in 2020. Companies Mentioned: Ant Group

Investors are still digesting Friday's disappointing jobs data, where the U.S. economy added 50,000 fewer jobs than economists were expecting. Former Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Roger Ferguson gives his thoughts. Plus, Chinese producer prices fell for the ninth straight month in June, marking the steepest decline since 2015. MSA Capital's Ben Harburg discusses investing in China. And, it's a busy week on Wall Street with June CPI and the start of Q2 earnings season both on tap. Palisade Capital Management's Dan Veru and ProShares Advisors' Simeon Hyman lay out the agenda.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news more rises to our OCR may be off the table now but that doesn't mean our interest rates will stop going up.This coming week, the big international focus will be on the US CPI change for June. We get that on Thursday, NZ time and an increase of 3.1% is expected, down from the May 4.0% rate. That would count as good progress, but markets still expect two (or three) more US Fed rate hikes in 2023 based on recent Fed speaker signals.Later today we will also get China's June CPI inflation report, and that isn't expected to show any increase. India releases their June CPI result on Thursday.This coming week we will also get central bank rate reviews from Canada on Thursday where a +25 bps rise is expected, and South Korea also on Thursday. And of course we will get our own RBNZ releasing their decision on Wednesday, and no change is expected here.Australia's business and consumer sentiment survey results come out this week too and will be influential.But most influential has been the US headline non-farm payrolls expanded +209,000 when analysts had expected +225,000. This headline June expansion is the lowest in almost three years.Although the headline numbers cooled, economic activity hasn't slowed as much as Fed officials expected, likely keeping the central bank on track to raise interest rates later this month to combat its persistent and above target inflation. The labour market has their backs for an increase.Canada also released its June labour force data and that came in better than expected, up +59,900 in June from May when a +20,000 rise was anticipated. In fact, they had a +109,600 rise in full-time employment and a fall of -49,800 in part-time employment. So the net quality of the new jobs improved. This probably paves the way for another central bank policy rate hike there too on Thursday (NZT). Their policy rate it is already 4.75%.For all its economic recovery issues, China's foreign exchange reserves rose in June when no change was expected. Yes, the rise was small in USD terms but is was a rise. They are now at US$3.193 tln, with less than US$0.9 tln held in US government debt.Total vehicle sales in China came in at almost the same level as a year ago for June, but that built on their large May recovery. Total sales are now running at an annual rate of 26 mln, making this the world's largest vehicle market by some margin over the second place US. More than 2.5 mln vehicles were sold in June 2023 alone.Taiwanese exports fell sharply in June from May, down more than -10%, and an uncomfortable -23% lower than June a year ago. Ameliorating the pain was that imports fell even more.Japanese household spending remained low in May and is falling, with households there prioritising saving. If this trend embeds it will be hard for Japan to maintain its recent economic expansion, and it will be up to their Government to convert those savings into some sort of spending.The latest update to the FAO world food price index shows prices continuing to retreat with the pressures well and truly behind us. It fell for a second month in June and to a fresh low since April 2021. The May increase was downwardly revised. Obviously global food supply and cost pressures have eased a lot since their peak in March 2022, falling by almost a quarter. Meat prices have remained stable since October last year, but dairy prices continue to ease.The UST 10yr yield will start today at 4.07%, unchanged from Saturday but it is up +22 bps in a week and that is a big move, and to its highest level since the brief March spike and before that, November. For all the turmoil, we should note that the Fear & Greed Index is now strongly on the 'greed' side of things. Investors are shrugging off their fears, despite the bond market signals. But an upcoming earnings season that might deliver wavering results could quickly upend that.The price of gold will start today at US$1924/oz and down -US$2 from Saturday. This price isn't signaling 'fear' either.And oil prices are holding at just over US$73.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at just over US$78.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today just over 62.1 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are still firm at just under 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 56.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just over 70.3, little-changed from Saturday but up +50 bps in a week.The bitcoin price has risen marginally from this time Saturday and now is at US$30,276 which is a minor +0.4% shift up. Recall, this time last week this price was US$30,316, so little change from then too. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review market performance of the week ended July 7 for equities (2:27), fixed income (3:44) and commodities (8:42). Then they turn to the week's macro prints (12:03), among other observations noting the ongoing split personality of the U.S. economy with robust services and weakening manufacturing. Pricing in the futures market (16:43), Jeff and Sam remark, puts the probability of a quarter point hike in the federal funds target rate at 89% at the July 26 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-setting body of the Federal Reserve. For the week of July 10-14 (20:58), Jeff and Sam will be particularly focused on June CPI report, due Wednesday, and comments by Fed officials, in particular, Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

US futures are pointing to a lower open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened with losses, following lower levels in Asia. Market is waiting for some key employment data over the final two days of this week, along with next week's release of the June CPI and the start of Q2 earnings season. Traders see a July rate increase as a done deal and there is also the possibility of further hike beyond, though data is likely to be key. Companies Mentioned: Meta, Bank of China, ICBC, Industrial Bank, Bank of Communications, Hua Xia Bank

The below-expectation June CPI figure of 6.1 per cent does nothing to defuse concerns over rising fuel, materials and labour prices hitting our most vulnerable industries, says the manager of SMEs, insolvency and public practice at CPA Australia, Kristen Beadle. Speaking on this week's Accountants Daily podcast, Ms Beadle said for many businesses the pandemic relief measures had just postponed the inevitable and today's unfavourable economic conditions meant there would be business casualties. “There's a lot of stress among our members. This isn't just food and construction – it's across the board. There's a lot of concern around long-term viability,” she said.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news investors are now betting that the US Fed will need to cut rates in 2023, and that is twisting the global bond market. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates +75 bps on Thursday, so these signals are confusing as markets struggle to make the transition.In the US, even though the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index was unchanged in June from May - and still recording a moderate expansion - the Dallas Fed's more current July survey is only expanding with "modest growth" and gives more evidence of an economic slowdown in the US factory sector.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for the 2 year maturity and raising US$49 bln. It was well supported with the median yield achieved at 2.95% and marginally less than the 3.00% at the prior equivalent event.China said the number of new births in several Chinese provinces hit the lowest in 60 years and their experts now expect the country's population to start to shrink before 2025.And staying in China, they said they will launch a real estate fund to help property developers resolve their crippling debt crisis, aiming for a war chest of up to US$44 bln in a bid to restore confidence in the industry.Hong Kong exports sank in June, down -6.4% from the same month a year ago and extending a run of depressing results for them. Hong Kong is now but a shadow of its former vibrant self as all their economic data now seems quite weak.Taiwanese industrial production went right off the boil in June with only a trivial (for them) +0.7% rise year-on-year. But their retail sales took off, up a quite remarkable +22% year-on-year.Singapore reported its June CPI inflation rate at 6.7% and well above the 6.2% expected and also well above the 5.6% rate in the March quarter.In Germany, a closely-watched Business Climate indicator fell in July to its lowest in over two years and below market expectations as higher energy prices and the threat of a gas shortage are weighing on their economy that is on the cusp of a recession. Germany's gas network regulator warned that if gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline continued to be pumped at only 20%, the country would need to take additional measures to reach the 90% of storage capacity set as a target to avert winter rationing.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.81% and up +6 bps to start their week. The price of gold will open today at US$1720/oz in New York which is down -US$7 from this time yesterday.And oil prices are little-changed at just under US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$100/bbl. These prices are a little less than +US$1 higher than this time yesterdayThe Kiwi dollar will open today marginally firmer than this time yesterday at 62.7 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are softer at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just over 61.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.2 and a minor +10 bps above this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is sharply lower than this time yesterday, down by -4.1% to US$21,859. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/-3.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news bond investors are pricing their yields for a sharp slowdown coming soon with some key yields getting more inverted. Attention is shifting to what the US Fed will announce on Thursday.But first up, Japan reported June CPI inflation at the end of last week with their headline rate now at 2.4%, down fractionally from 2.5% in May, but still above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%. It's been above that target for three consecutive months now. And it's been seven years since they have had inflation like this although that was because of a GST hike. Excluding that, it's been 32 years.In China, the central bank said there were NZ$1.6 tln of bonds issued in June, taking their total issuance to NZ$33.7 tln. That is about 125% of annual Chinese economic activity, just for this official debt. Much of this new issuance will be just to keep the lights on, rather than investing for future gains.In Russia, they slashed their official interest rate by -150 bps. Earlier in the year it was raised fast to weigh against a spike in inflation. Now it is being cut hard to try an invigorate a war-damaged economy with sinking demand.Globally, the 'flash' business activity surveys were out over the weekend for most major economies and they paint a somber picture.The American one reported a contraction in July, all due to services activity. The factory sector is still expanding at the same rate as in June, but the services sector took an unexpectedly retreat. The decline was the sharpest since the initial stages of the pandemic in May 2020. Separately, new export orders fell for a second successive month but new local orders are still expanding making the combined new order inflow the weakest in the past two years.With little other major economic data around, the unexpected contraction in the giant US services sector had an immediate impact on equity and bond markets on Wall Street on their Friday.Weaker growth in new orders was also a feature of the Japanese flash PMI for July. But at least both their factory and service sectors are still expanding there.In Europe, their factory PMI slipped into a minor contraction while their services sector is still expanding in July - but only just. But none of this will be much of a surprise given the invasion from the east. Perhaps you could say it is quite resilient in the circumstances, that they are not yet in a major contraction.A lot of the EU result is due to the pressure Germany is under with both their factory and services sectors contracting now. The French services sector is a bright spot.Data for Canadian retail sales in May was strong, and a bright spot in the weekend releases. Year-on-year increases are impressive and far more than inflation can account for. But of course this data is quite dated now.In Australia, the big general insurer there, IAG, has reported that natural perils and rising costs will push up premiums by up to +9% for house and car cover. This comes as their shareholder funds shrink as provisions and reserves need to be raised, and it missed profit guidance to investors. Since mid April which was before the latest flooding on the Australian eastern seaboard, its share price has fallen -20% and investors worry about what the climate will do to its business.And we should note that over the past week, the iron ore price has fallen -8%, copper is flat, but it had already fallen -27% since early June. Nickel fell almost -30% from early June. Wheat is down more than -30% since mid June. Soybeans are down -15%. Only coal is holding its new high price. Aluminium is down -15% from early June. And crude oil is down -18% from that early June peak.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.75% and unchanged from Saturday but back to mid-April levels. A week ago this was at 2.93%. Market attention is squarely on Thursday's US Fed announcements where a +75 bps rate hike is universally expected. The UST 2-10 rate curve is marginally flatter today, now at -22 bps and their 1-5 curve is slightly more inverted at -17 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is now at +61 bps and little-changed from Saturday. The price of gold will open today at US$1727/oz in New York which is up +US$3 from this time Saturday. It is also up +US$16 from this time last week.And oil prices are little-changed at just under US$95/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$99.50/bbl. These prices are almost exactly the same as this time last week.The Kiwi dollar will open today marginally firmer than this time Saturday at 62.5 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are also a little firmer at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just over 61.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.1 and this is -60 bps lower than this time last week.The bitcoin price is little-changed from this time Saturday, down by just -0.9% to US$22,788. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Large and Tyler are back in business after a brief health scare. They recap the June CPI report that set the internet on fire and also talk about Large's painful hospital experience. It's gonna take more than a kidney stone to bring down The Family Office. Enjoy

On this week's episode of the Macrocast, Tony, John, and Brendan discussed a slew of big economic data releases including the 40-year high inflation number, big bank earnings, and China's sluggish growth. The group ends the conversation with a discussion on the EU and the "operatic drama" coming out of Italian politics this week. Tune in!

US equities were modestly lower on the week, though off the worst mid-week levels that followed the hotter-than-expected June CPI print. The hot print led the market to price in a 90% chance of a 100 bp hike at the July FOMC meeting, but this fell below 30% by Friday as Fed officials favored 75 bp in their comments. Despite the (backward-looking) CPI report, there were more hopes that inflation may be peaking. Banks highlighted the first week of earnings season. Next week, we'll get some more key economic data ahead of the July 26-27 FOMC meeting.

Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued the June CPI numbers. We are now running at an annual inflation rate of 9.1%, up from 8.6% last month. This is the largest 12-month increase since November 1981. The BLS defined the increase as broad-based, with energy, shelter and food being the biggest contributors. Energy The energy index rose 7.5% overall after rising 3.9% in May. gasoline 11.2%, natural gas at 8.2%. Electricity index also rose 1.7%. The energy index overall rose 41.6% for the year, with gas rising Shelter The shelter index increased 0.6% in June, as it did in May. Rent index rose 0.8%, and owner's equivalent rent rose 0.7%. Lodging away from home (hotels and such) actually fell 2.8% in June after a string of increases in recent months. Food The food index rose 1% in June, the sixth consecutive increase of at least 1% in that index. Food away from home rose 0.9%. The only major grocery group to decline in June was the index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs which fell 0.4%. Overall, food at home rose 12.2% over the last 12 months. CPI To review, the bulk of the CPI is made up of Shelter (32%), Commodities (21.2%) like apparel, new/used vehicles, alcohol, tobacco, Food (13.4%), Energy (8.6%), Medical Services (6.8%) and transportation services (5.8%) My main take away is that the longer this elevated inflation continues, the longer it will continue. Anyone not asking for a significant, 8-10% raise from their employer at this point is effectively getting a pay cut. Eventually people are going to take their financial lives in their own hands, and when they do, I think it's going to lead to a wage-price spiral where people get raises, but everything becomes more expensive because everyone is getting raises just to keep up. The Fed now knows it needs to act, and it needs to act quick. So what are the likely results from this higher-than-expected inflation print? It will likely lead the Fed to a 75-100 basis point (fancy way for saying .75% or 1%) federal funds rate hike in at the July FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. This is pretty significant — the current federal funds rate is 1.5%-1.75% (it's set as a range between an upper limit and a lower limit) so with an increase of 75-100 basis points it would go up to 2.25-2.5% or 2.5-2.75 depending on how aggressive they choose to be. The popular viewpoint at the moment is that the fed will continue tightening until they “break something,” and then they will ease up. A bit of historical context here might be helpful. For the last 20 years we have had both historically low interest rates and quite low inflation. Post financial crisis in 2008 they had many years of 0% rates (which was a first at the time), until 2015. When they tried to raise rates up to 2.5% in the period of time from 2015 to 2019, the hiking cycle was cut short when the economy was showing signs of stress. The Fed has what they call a “dual mandate” which is 1. Stable Prices and 2. Full employment. They really shouldn't be concerned about asset prices (real estate, the stock market, etc.) but they have started to be more and more influenced by the markets. In the covid period, The Fed responded by moving rates back down to zero, by resuming Quantitative Easing, by sending out stimulus checks and increasing the amount of unemployment, pausing student loan payments, and that sort of thing. Links: BLS.gov news release https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/past-fed-hiking-cycles-sanguine-severe-may-say-little-about-this-one-2022-03-17/ Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/inflationpodcast/message

Prayer of the day, introduction, pledge of allegiance, star spangled banner, who is the true conservative, June CPI, Berkeley professor, sensitivity, neutrality and credibility, party of government, party of the environment, no free lunch, tyranny of need, the maltese falcon, conclusion

Today's guests: Senator Rick Scott from Florida. Senator Joni Ernst from Iowa. Senator Marsha Blackburn from Tennessee. Michael Shear, New York Times White House Correspondent. Dr. Michael Oren, former Israeli prime minister for diplomacy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this podcast, Lord Abbett Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Herzog breaks down the widely anticipated report on consumer-level inflation, including its implications for Fed policy and key asset classes

US equities finished mostly lower, but near best levels for the day. The market was largely able to shake off its early session risk-off stance driven by concerns about a more-aggressive Fed and a downbeat Q2 report from JPM. While expectations for July's FOMC rate hike spiked to 100bp in the wake of yesterday's hotter-than-feared June CPI report, forecasts slid back toward 75bp with today's Fedspeak.

The June CPI data was worse than investors expected. The year-over-year increase of 9.1% means inflation continues to be at 40-year highs. That number cements expectations for a 75 basis point hike in interest rates later this month. And some analysts now speculate that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 100 basis points when it meets later this month. f investors didn?t have enough to worry about, they are also looking at the yield curve inversion. This confirms the economy is heading for, or already in, a recession. As you would expect, the market, went deep into the red on all this bad news. However, as the trading day ended, the markets were well off session lows. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index in particular was showing some strength. This is because many analysts believe the markets are already pricing in the hot CPI reading. And others believe that after months of head fakes, the economy may finally be seeing peak inflation. Investors will get more information when the June PPI data comes in tomorrow before the market opens.

June CPI numbers come in hotter than expected with inflation topping 9%. Carol Roth joins us to react to June's inflation numbers. The largest majority of Democrat voters are college-educated Whites. Rep. Chip Roy joins us to discuss the border crisis, Uvalde and more. Shocking video was released from Uvalde showing the failure of law enforcement.Please visit our great sponsors:American Hartford Gold https://offers.americanhartfordgold.com/dana/Call 1-866-887-1188 or text DANA to 998899 for up to $1500 in free Silver with qualifying first purchase. Good Rancherhttps://goodranchers.com/danaGet your family to the table with 100% American meat. Save $30 with code DANA.HumanN- Superbeetshttps://danasbeets.comFight fatigue with Superbeets heart chews and save up to 45% off.Kel Techttps://KelTecWeapons.comKelTec: Creating Innovative, Quality Firearms to help secure your world.Patriot Mobile https://PatriotMobile.com/DanaFree Activation with promo code DANA. Patriotmobile.com/dana or call 972-PATRIOT.

Sean O'Hara, President of Pacer ETFs, discusses the award-winning COWZ ETF and ETF investing amid inflation and rising interest rates. Peter McNally, Global Lead - Industrials, Materials, and Energy at Third Bridge, talks about airlines, travel, oil, and Delta earnings. Matt Winkler, Editor-in-Chief Emeritus with Bloomberg News, discusses his latest column on CPI data and evidence of decelerating inflation. Vinh Vuong, Chairman and CEO at Garrison Fathom, talks about crypto regulation, blockchain technology, and the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto. Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Economist of Hugh Johnson Economics, talks about the economy and markets in 2022. Hosted by Matt Miller and Kriti Gupta. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

U.S. equities finished lower in Wednesday trading; Dow Jones (0.67%), S&P500 (0.45%), and Nasdaq (0.15%). Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening; 2/10 spread finished the most negative since October 2000. June CPI report showed a +9.1% y/y rise in headline inflation, highest since 1981, with Core CPI also accelerating. Market now anticipating an ~80% chance of a 100bp hike in July. Earnings tomorrow morning from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Conagra Brands among others, along with June's PPI and weekly jobless claims.

In today's podcast, we mark-to-market the latest macro developments in the U.S. and recent price action, as well as briefly review some of the inflation concepts covered in our recent monthly strategy report.  We also touch upon what to expect from markets post the June CPI report. In our view, if the inflation report does not show any signs of price increases slowing, then a high reading may trigger a more lasting risk-off as investors potentially throw in the towel on inflation moderating. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

And now we wait. The markets had a choppy day. But not even Pepsi?s bubbly guidance was enough to keep stocks in positive territory. Oil was down as concerns over another Covid lockdown in China gain steam. And the yield on the 10-year continues to fall as many investors fly to the relative safety of government bonds. All of this could have to do with the strength of the U.S. dollar. The greenback is having itself a month which is good news if you?re planning a European vacation.The only thing that seems clear is that investors are bracing for the June CPI data. That comes out on Wednesday before the market opens. The White House and many analysts seem to be conceding that the number will come in hotter than expected. And if it does, a 75 basis point hike by the Federal Reserve later this month will be the least of investor?s concerns. But what if it the number is in-line with prior expectations? The stock market is already pricing in high inflation. Anything resembling ?less bad? news may be just the tonic the market needs.

First Lady Jill Biden makes an insensitive comparison in a speech to Latino people. Hunter Biden could face prostitution charges. June CPI numbers are expected to be elevated to due inflation. Americans aren't excited for Amazon's Prime Day. Democrats still want to raise taxes. A pro-abortion witness gaslights Josh Hawley for saying women have children. A story about an Ohio 12-year-old reportedly looking for an abortion was completely fabricated. Rick Ector joins us to discuss the 11th Annual 'Legally Armed in Detroit Free Shooting Event for Women'.Please visit our great sponsors:American Hartford Gold https://offers.americanhartfordgold.com/dana/Call 1-866-887-1188 or text DANA to 998899 for up to $1500 in free Silver with qualifying first purchase. Good Rancherhttps://goodranchers.com/danaCelebrate Independence Day with American Meat. Sign up today for 18oz Ribeyes FREE.HumanN- Superbeetshttps://danasbeets.comFight fatigue with Superbeets heart chews and save up to 45% off.Kel Techttps://KelTecWeapons.comKelTec: Creating Innovative, Quality Firearms to help secure your world.Patriot Mobile https://PatriotMobile.com/DanaFree Activation with promo code DANA. Patriotmobile.com/dana or call 972-PATRIOT.

Private capital from venture investors may be harder and harder to come by these days, but that doesn't mean there aren't a few hot sectors ripe for new cash. WeFox Co-Founder and CEO Julian Teicke dives into the company's successful post-money valuation boost. Plus, when it comes to the growing energy crisis in Europe, what are the potential spillover effects to the rest of the world? Samantha Dart of Goldman Sachs weighs in. And, stock futures are pointing to a weak open as investors await key corporate earnings later this week, along with June CPI data out tomorrow. Mark Howard of BNP Paribas and Greg Sarian of Sarian Strategic Partners preview the trading day ahead.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, a bit off worst levels. Treasuries were stronger with some curve flattening. Late-day selloff sent stocks lower. There is a lot of anticipation ahead of tomorrow's June CPI report. The Earnings risk theme has also been a big overhang. China Covid resurgence, European growth worries, slowdown in the housing market, and potential Russian gas shipment halt are still in the broader mix as well. Reuters said President Biden will push for increased oil output during Middle East trip. Richmond Fed's Barkin was the latest to signal that the speed of Fed policy changes is making markets skittish.

It was fun while it lasted. The relief rally that lifted investors? spirits in the shortened trade week ran into a wall of worry. Equities were down with the tech sector seeing the largest declines. But this was an equal opportunity sell-off. Oil, gold, and Bitcoin all were lower as was the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. It?s likely that investors are expressing their opinion on what they expect from the June CPI and PPI readings. These reports come in the pre-market on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The consensus is for the CPI to show an 8.8% year-over-year increase with core CPI coming in at 5.8%. Even though those numbers would show the worst may be over in terms of price hikes, tell that to consumers who still lack confidence in this market. Investors are also anticipating the start of the earnings season. Many of the major banks will report later this week. And many analysts are already adjusting their price targets to reflect what they expect to be lower guidance.

US equities finished lower in Monday afternoon trading, back near worst levels. Treasuries were firmer with the curve flattening. The market spent much of the session in a narrow (negative) trading range. The market faced various headwinds and awaits the upcoming June CPI report on Wednesday. Chinese tech companies hit with regulatory fines over anti-monopoly rules. Fed's George reiterated her concerns about too-abrupt tightening. Commerce Secretary Raimondo said Biden likely to soon make a decision on China tariffs.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news China seems to be hamstrung with a flagging economy that is yet to respond to the stimulus administered so far.First up, China reported its June CPI inflation rate at 2.5%, up marginally from May, and up from 1.1% in June 2021. But if it wasn't for a +19% rise in fresh fruit year-on-year, and fuel of course (+32%), the 2022 rate may have matched the 2021 rate. The cost of fresh milk rose +0.9% but lamb fell -6.0%. China doesn't really have an inflation problem at this time, 'aided' by an economy in the doldrums. But that 2.5% June rate is their highest in 23 months. Buying heavily discounted Russian oil and gas certainly helps.They seem to have neither inflation nor an economic expansion.China's producer cost rises are slowing. After rising at a rate exceeding +13% late last year, PPI inflation is now down to 'just' 6.1% in June, its slowest rise in 15 months. We should note that the pressure on the 'industrial sector' is higher (at 8.5%).In Chinese society, nationalist fervour is building ahead of the CPC party Congress. But as we have reported before, their economy is struggling and major announcements on vast new stimulus are expected soon. Larger deficit spending is proposed. Local authorities are already distributing helicopter money to keep retail activity bubbling along. But in the industrial heartland things are serious. China's steel mills are sounding the alarm over crisis conditions in the industry as margins plunge due to weak demand. The starkest warning yet has come from Hunan Valin Iron & Steel Group, which met this week to discuss the rapid downturn in the sector and the measures it needs to take to ensure the company's survival, including halting unprofitable production. Citing industry experts, the mill based in southern China, said it expects the crisis to persist for five years. Iron ore prices fell again on Friday, weighed by the gloomy demand outlook in China.In Taiwan, export data for June was very strong, rising more than +15% year-on-year to US$42.2 bln in the month, far better than the +13.6% rise expected and the +12.5% rise in May. The Taiwanese export juggernaut rolls on. They even managed to keep import growth lower than expected and lower than for May, even with the oil price pressures. The trade balance stumble in May is behind them now.In the US, the market bears have been thinking they will finally have their day. But better-than-expected jobs numbers make it a very hard claim to sustain.Markets were expecting a +268,000 increase, but the seasonally adjusted American non-farm payrolls rose +372,000 in June from May to be +6.3 mln higher than a year ago, and +1.1 mln higher than in the pre-pandemic June 2019. By this measure, this June 2022 data records substantial progress. But it is actually better than that. As regular readers know, we also look at the actual, rather than seasonally adjusted numbers, and June's employed labour force is actually +944,000 higher than May's and continuing a trend that exposes a very sharp rise in actual hiring.All those extra paid workers buy stuff, and that is expanding their economy faster that many analysts are expecting. The Americans seem to have both inflation and a good economic expansion.High inflation in a strong labour market is sure to keep the US Fed in its rate hiking mood, the next of which will come on July 28 (NZT), now probably +75 bps. Two of the Federal Reserve's most vocal hawks said they would support another big interest rate increase but a downshift to a slower pace afterward, even as both downplayed the risk of higher borrowing costs pushing the US into recession.The rise in American wholesale inventories continued in May, but at a slower pace than for April. Their inventory-to-sales ratio remains low from an historical perspective, but as we have noted before, firms are moving to actively reduce this build-up, and that is affecting factory new orders worldwide.The US reported that consumer debt (not housing) rose by +US$22 bln in May, less than expected (+US$32 bln), and much less than the April rise of +US$36 bln. They now collectively owe US$4.54 tln in consumer debt, a per capita rate of US$13,660 each. For perspective, New Zealanders owe NZ$2,600 each as a per capita average.Meanwhile, the top has come off the recent rise in American mortgage interest rates.Canada also reported jobs numbers for June, shedding -43,200 jobs in the month although almost all of those were part-time jobs. Canada has been shifting from part-time to full-time for most months in 2022, although this month there was not compensating growth in full-time jobs. Canada's jobless rate fell to 4.9% which is a record low for them. The US is at 3.6%. Australia is at 3.9%. New Zealand is at a 3.2% unemployed rate.In Australia, the insurance claim costs of their on-going flood catastrophes in NSW are already at AU$100 mln. Some insurers are calling on immediate restrictions on rebuilding on flood plains. That may affect more than 15% of households there, perhaps thousands who can't return. New Zealand premium costs are sure to feel the impact from stressed Aussie insurers.Globally, the UN FAO Food Price Index slipped in June from May as both vegetable oils and cereals slipped in price. But both dairy prices and meat rose again, meat to a new record high and dairy back close to its 2013 record level. What is interesting is that even on an inflation-adjusted basis, global demand for meat and dairy remains very strong, and alternatives seem to be making no headway into these markets. Perhaps the very sharp run-up in grain prices is putting them at a disadvantage. An early pioneer, Beyond Meat, has seen its share price crash -75% in a year. Its sales are dragging and costs skyrocketing as consumers loose interest in the product.The UST 10yr yield starts today back up at 3.08% and a +19 bps rise in a week. The price of gold will open the week at at US$1743/oz. A week ago it was at US$1808/oz, so it has fallen -US$65/oz since.And oil prices have moved back -50 USc to just under US$102.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$106/bbl. A week ago these levels were US$107 and US$111/bbl, so a -US$5 shift lower in a week week.The Kiwi dollar will open today unchanged from Saturday at 61.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are also unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 60.8 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.6 and a minor +25 bps higher in a week. The bitcoin price has fallen since this time Saturday and is now at US$20,892 and down +4.3%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/-3.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

DoubleLine's Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau shut the door on a rough first half to the year and begin the second half with coverage of the short, pretty crazy week of July 5-8. Following last week's signals pointing toward recession, this week included a strong run by the S&P 500 and offered data that could be pointing to at least a little growth (1:59). In fixed income (3:03), the U.S. Treasury yield curve closed the week above the 3 handle across the board, but the 2s10s (two-year/10-year) inversion clocked in across all four days. Jeff and Sam wonder if Monday will bring the fifth consecutive day, a traditional barometer pointing toward recession, and if any analysts will change their tune on how long the inversion must last. Sam also says to be on the lookout for an inversion of the 3s10s (three-month/10-year), a very reliable herald of recession. Commodities' big positive print on the year continued to fade (7:01). Jeff and Sam note the stock market doesn't seem to be following a recessionary narrative before moving into Macro Land (9:15), which delivered services PMI and labor data that could be read as bolstering or questioning a recession story. Next week brings the June CPI and an answer to whether peak inflation was hit in May. This episode was recorded after market close July 8, 2022.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news, company earnings are mixed, but generally support the idea that the giant US economy is mending quickly.The US Fed has been meeting and as expected made no change to their policy positions. But their mood was upbeat about the trajectory of the US economy and suggesting a tapering is in their plans. And they repeated that they see the current inflation impulse as temporary.And it seems that the Biden Administration will pull off a bipartisan infrastructure deal very soon.Separately, the US announced a massive -US$94.3 merchandise trade deficit, driven by surging imports which were up almost +5% from May, up +35% from the pandemic-affected June 2020, and up +17% from June 2019. Exports are up too, but not like this.One of the early pandemic victims was aircraft manufacturer Boeing. But it is now in recovery mode and back in profit, shelving plans to shed another 10,000 workers by the end of the year. It is also now boosting production of the 737 MAX jetliner amid the airline industry's recovery.And in other corporate earnings news, Pfizer says it now expects to make US$34 bln in revenues from its COVID-19 vaccine by delivering 3 bln doses, up from its previous estimate of US$26 bln.US mortgage applications jumped last week, and mortgage interest rates fell, and quite noticeably and taking them back to early 2021 levels.Canada reported its June CPI inflation which came in at +3.1% which was lower than expected (3.2%) and lower than for May (3.6%).In Australia, they released their June CPI result yesterday. It rose +0.8% this quarter and over the twelve months to the June 2021 quarter, the CPI rose +3.8% exactly as expected. The increases there were led by petrol (+6.5%). The last time weekly earnings data was released it showed wages up +3.2% in a year. The next time this gets updated is August 19. They are expecting the base CPI effects to unwind quickly.On Wall Street, the S&P500 has turned negative on mixed earnings reports after starting off ahead, and is down -0.2% so far. Overnight, European markets were mixed with London up the least (+0.3%) and Paris up the most (+1.2%). Yesterday, Tokyo fell a sharp -1.4% on the day. However Hong Kong clawed back +1.5% on the day, but Shanghai shed another -0.6% in a continuing sell-off. Beijing gathered 'the home team' for a pep talk at the end of yesterday's session. In the US, a blue-ribbon group has concluded the US Treasury market needs urgent reform. They are proposing sweeping changes to prevent repeated market meltdowns like those seen in 2020.The UST 10yr yield starts today at just on 1.26% and a +2 bps change. The price of gold is now just over US$1797/oz which is down -US$5 from this time yesterday. This continues the recent yo-yo pattern around the US$1800/oz mark.Oil prices have risen by +50c and in the US they are now just under US$72/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just under US$74/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today just on 69.3 USc and another -30 bps lower than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are another -10 bps lower at 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also another -10 bps lower at 58.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.3 and a further backslide.The bitcoin price is now at US$39,313 and back up +3.5% since this time on yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been very high again at +/- 4.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

US Treasury markets reacted calmly, as the June CPI inflation data beat expectations to reach a thirteen year high. This week's ECB meeting should shed light on average inflation targeting plans, while Flash PMI data will indicate the current state of global business sentiment. Pela Strataki CFA, Senior Investment Analyst and Alex Burn CFA, Investment Manager. Hosted by Lorna Denny, Investment Specialist. This podcast is intended for investment professionals, and must not be shared with a non-professional audience. This podcast is for information purposes only and is intended to broaden listeners' awareness of financial markets and no part of the materials should be construed to represent financial advice or an offer to buy, sell or otherwise participate in any investment activity or strategy. The content is based on information sources that are deemed reliable at the time of recording. Architas has no express or implied warranty, guarantee or statement as to the accuracy, suitability or completeness of the information provided. All rights are reserved. Without the prior consent of the copyright holder, no part of this podcast in any form or by any means is allowed to be published, copied or emailed or stored in an information system. These materials originate from Architas Limited ("Architas").Architas is a company registered in England No. 02638607, registered office: 20 Gracechurch Street, London, EC3V 0BG United Kingdom. These materials are not intended for audiences in the United States of America.

Fed forced to admit that inflation will be higher and last longer than they predicted. June CPI numbers come in almost double Fed's expectations. Highest monthly CPI increase in 13 years. Stock indexes are not a hedge against inflation. Producer costs are rising faster than consumer prices. Consumer prices are rising faster than wages. No signs that inflation is transitory in the oil market. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you're instantly approved. RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff

Fed forced to admit that inflation will be higher and last longer than they predicted. June CPI numbers come in almost double Fed's expectations. Highest monthly CPI increase in 13 years. Stock indexes are not a hedge against inflation. Producer costs are rising faster than consumer prices. Consumer prices are rising faster than wages. No signs that inflation is transitory in the oil market. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you're instantly approved. RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff

This morning we got the June CPI, and despite attemps from our market to rally throughout the day we did finish lower. Tune in to today's podcast to see what the markets are telling us today based on the VRA Investing System, and more importantly what we see looking forward for investors. 18 minutes.

After a record-setting week for stocks, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with a closer look at better-than-expected quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, marking the beginning of earnings season. Highlights include comparing both companies' investment banking results, Goldman's return on equity hitting double-digits and strength in asset management, and JPM CEO Jamie Dimon's comments on reserve releases and the strength of the American consumer. The anchors also discussed June CPI coming in hotter than expected, up 0.9% for the month and surging 5.4% from a year ago -- the largest jump since 2008 -- and where earnings from PepsiCo and Conagra fit into the inflation trade. Boeing under pressure after announcing plans to cut back 787 Dreamliner production due to a structural issue. Cramer asks what it's going to take for Boeing CEO David Calhoun to stop the company's "endless stream of bad news." Johnson & Johnson also in the spotlight after the FDA announced it is adding a warning to J&J's COVID-19 vaccine to warn of a very small incidence of the rare neurological disorder known as Guillain-Barre syndrome. The anchors reacted to Dr. Anthony Fauci's comments to CNBC in which he defends the vaccines that have received emergency use authorization, calling them "highly effective." Also in focus: The best ways to play the semiconductor sector now, retail and mall stocks amid rising inflation, and Cramer on how investors in AMC Entertainment should manage the stock's recent decline. The anchors also reacted to comments Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon made on his company's earnings call: He expressed concerns about the prospect of a pandemic resurgence.

US futures are little changed as of 05:00ET. Asia equities mostly higher Tuesday while Europe is mostly softer . US bank earnings are set to kick off Q2 earnings season this morning while, in macro data, the June CPI figure is the highlight. Companies mentioned: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, First Republic Bank, Nokia, Tencent, Boeing, Inter Pipeline, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners

US equities finished higher in a quiet session Monday, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all setting fresh record highs. Value slightly outperformed growth. Broadcom is reportedly in talks to acquire privately held software maker SAS Institute. Liberty Mutual to acquire State Auto Financial for $52 per share. Busy week of macroeconomic data ahead with June CPI expected Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell giving the semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and June Retail Sales data out on Friday. This week also marks the start of Q2 earnings season.

Jana van Deventer, Head of Real Time Research at ETM Analytics looks at the main domestic data releases for the week which includes the June CPI report and retail sales data for May. What do you expect these numbers to show and NUMSA is threatening to embark on a strike which could result in a "total shutdown" of the manufacturing sector.