Podcast appearances and mentions of june cpi

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months. We continue to expect a rotation in core inflation towards the US, but have scaled back the size of this projected US-RoW inflation gap while also pushing back its expected timing.  A synchronized slowing in global growth alongside moderating wage inflation is likely to weigh on service price pressures more broadly while core goods inflation should ease modestly outside the US once the front-loading lift unwinds and transshipments from China are closed off.    Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist   This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5030422-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5031696-0 For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Some decisions are hard. Some decisions are easy.  In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, Mike Maharrey talks about one of each. Should the Fed cut or raise interest rates? That's a hard decision, and the June CPI didn't give much clarity. Mike breaks down the report and examines various ways to interpret it.  Should you have silver? That decision seems like a no-brainer given the fundamental and technical dynamics, as Mike explains. 

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we examine JPMorgan's play to charge for consumer data. Plus, Robbie sits down with Curinos' Ken Flaherty and Richard Martin to discuss key opportunities for lenders to attract, retain, and grow more profitable customer relationships, across both first mortgages and home equity products. And we close by looking at reaction to the June CPI report as well as the latest PPI figures.Thank you to Ocrolus. Ocrolus is transforming the mortgage industry with AI-powered data and analytics, featuring cutting-edge tools for automated indexing, income analysis, and discrepancy insights. Ocrolus is empowering underwriters to make timely, confident lending decisions. Whether you need to verify income across complex pay scenarios or review borrower documents with confidence, Ocrolus helps mortgage teams move at the speed of automation with the precision of human oversight. Learn more at ocrolus.com/mortgage.

Tariffs are back, and Axel Merk says they're already pushing prices up. We chat about how higher import costs show up in inflation, what the Fed might do, and how Axel is using cash, bonds, and gold to stay ready.#Inflation #Tariffs #AxelMerk #federalreserve -----------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------

June consumer inflation coming in as expected: Carl Quintanilla and Sara Eisen broke down the key categories to watch, sectors most impacted by tariffs, and what it all means for stocks alongside the Fed. Famed investor Mario Gabelli joined the team with his take on it all – along with some specific stock picks… While Former Fed Governor Randy Kroszner argued today's print doesn't move the needle on rates. Plus: a deep-dive on the big banks, as JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo kick off earnings from the group this week (all beating estimates).  Also in focus: the President's headed to Pittsburgh today for Pennsylvania's first ever Energy and Innovation Summit… with billions of dollars in deals and commitments around AI and data centers expected to be (or already) announced. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright joined the team live from the ground with his answers to America's growing power needs – along with recent OPEC developments, and more.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at how investor demand is impacting mortgage characteristics. Plus, Robbie sits down with Ocrolus' Rebecca Seward on how Ocrolus is redefining mortgage underwriting with its Inspect platform, enabling real-time condition creation and automated loan reviews to improve quality, reduce costs, and streamline operations for lenders of all sizes. And we close by hypothesizing how the June CPI report will impact Fed timing of rate cuts.Thank you to Ocrolus. Ocrolus is transforming the mortgage industry with AI-powered data and analytics, featuring cutting-edge tools for automated indexing, income analysis, and discrepancy insights. Ocrolus is empowering underwriters to make timely, confident lending decisions. Whether you need to verify income across complex pay scenarios or review borrower documents with confidence, Ocrolus helps mortgage teams move at the speed of automation with the precision of human oversight. Learn more at ocrolus.com/mortgage.

Though early affects of tariffs might show up in today's June CPI report, inflation data and bank earnings could dominate the day, keeping tariff policy off the front page.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0131-0725)

Mark Vitner and Jeffrey Cleveland break down June CPI, which cooled as shelter costs dipped. Mark thinks the Fed is “still on course” after the report. He also expects the PPI to read about the same when it is released tomorrow. However, he thinks the labor market is “much weaker” than data shows. Jeffrey thinks rate cuts will start in September and we could potentially see multiple this year. Housing costs cooling “should keep inflation in check,” he adds. Jeffrey sees the tariffs as a drag on the economy and expects GDP to hit 1.5% this year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Sevasti Balafas, CEO, Goalvest, discusses the market's resilience in the face of recent tariff announcements; why the AI theme and dominance remains intact in the US; expectations for the upcoming June CPI report; and why Q2 earnings growth is expected to come in lower than Q1. Produced/Presented: Emaad AkhtarSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US inflation is rising and tariffs are getting the blame.But first, the overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2.5% rise in SMP was matched by an unexpected rise of +1.7% in WMP prices. Butter prices were unchanged but cheddar cheese prices fell a sharpish -5.6%.In the US they got the expected rise in CPI inflation for June, up 2.7% when it was rising 2.4% in May. The Fed will have noticed that "core inflation" rose 2.9%. Food prices rose 3.0% and rents up 3.8%. The overall level was restrained by an -8.3% drop in petrol prices. As those year-ago petrol prices normalise in future months, they won't be restraining anything. Just in time for the pass-through of the tariff-taxes. An independent Fed will be concerned about the upwad trajectory.A Fed factory survey in the New York state recorded a rise in July, their first since February. But they are seeing input cost pressure picking up. However they also report it is easier to pass on those costs and seemed relieved about that.Canada also reported its June CPI inflation rate, coming in at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May.India reported declining merchandise exports in June, in fact their lowest level of the year and almost -8% lower than year-ago levels. Imports fell too. But strong services exports (outsourcing services) balanced things out. In contrast to China, India's rise is domestically-driven, not foreign trade driven, making them somewhat insulated from the tariff-wars.China reported that its Q2-2025 economy expanded +5.2% in inflation-adjusted terms from Q2-2024. This was bang on what Beijing had set as a target, and what observers were expecting them to announce. Strong exports and consumer subsidies helped a lot.China said its retail sales were up +4.8% in June from a year ago, its industrial production up +6.8%. So that suggests they had the best of both worlds - rising industry and rising internal consumption. That they seem to have done this all with only a modest rise in electricity production (+1.7%) would be impressive if it was believable. They are almost certainly making big strides in energy efficiency but it is unlikely as reported. Despite these cred issues however, it is clear that the Chinese economy is not going backward.But even if they aren't as steep as they have been over any of the past 15 months, new house prices in China are still falling. Only 12 of the 70 largest cities had prices that held basically unchanged however. But for resales, none were in that category. The lure of housing speculation in China is but a distant memory. For most developers that is trouble. But pockets like in Shenzhen may be seeing a bit of a shine.In the EU, industrial production surprised with a good +3.4% gain in May, far better than expected and continuing the 2025 expansion. The gains were even stronger in the euro areaSo it will be no surprise to learn that German ZEW sentiment seems to be in full recovery mode; this data for July, so those industrial production gains have likely continued.In Australia, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey showed a third consecutive rise in July, although a small one. Despite the surprise no-cut by the RBA recently, most consumers still expect interest rates to move lower from here. But they remain uncertain about the outlook for the overall economy and jobs. Housing-related sentiment dipped slightly but price expectations remained high.And staying in Australia, the RBA has reached the preliminary view that it would be in the public interest to remove surcharging on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa cards. They also want to lower the cap on interchange fees paid by businesses, and require card networks and large acquirers to publish the fees they charge. They are now in the 'consultation' phase, which will no doubt involve fierce pushback. Here the Commerce Commission has been looking at the same issues, and will report on the New Zealand changes they want to see, very soon.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, down -US$22 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -50 USc to US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.4, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,421 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back below NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, still just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Host Jennifer Sanasie breaks down the latest news in the crypto industry as inflation in the U.S. slightly rose in June.Inflation in the U.S. slightly rose in June but was mostly in line with expectations. Has inflation eased enough for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting rates later this year? CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts “CoinDesk Daily.”-Midnight is a privacy-enhancing blockchain introducing vital, programmable privacy and selective disclosure capabilities.It means DApps can allow users to control what information is revealed without putting sensitive data on-chain, allowing you to break free from the limitation of choosing between utility or privacy.We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free-This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week - how to think about this past weekend's tariff developments, high equity valuations, June CPI data, and bank earnings.

Scott Bauer surveys the commodities markets. He is still “moderately bullish” on Bitcoin as it hits news highs but is a “little concerned” about a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event this week. On the U.S. dollar, he attributes its recovery to euro weakness and says there's still pressure to move lower. He previews the June CPI report, released tomorrow morning, saying the market could sell off if the number comes in hot.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week including the US-led tariff war, the US June CPI report and China's monthly economic activity data.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance  This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.  This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.   The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer  The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.    

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there may be trade policy chaos, and it may get worse, but you wouldn't know it from today's data, especially June data from China.But first, India said its CPI inflation is falling, and quite quickly now, taken lower by falling food prices. Their CPI fell for the eighth straight month, down to 2.1% in June, the lowest level since January 2019, down from 2.8% in May. Analysts had expected it to fall to 2.5% in June, so this is quite a sharper move lower. You may recall the recent 7.4% peak in October 2024, then also driven by food prices.The question now is, will the RBI cut its 5.5% policy rate. Many analysts don't think the Indian central bank is ready yet to do that. They next meet on August 7.In Singapore they said their economy was 4.3% higher in Q2-2025 than Q2-2024. Their GDP rose +1.4% s.a. in the three months through June. Analysts had expected the rise to be only +0.8% increase. Construction helped drive the June result, surging 4.4%. The Q1-2025 contract was revised to -0.5%. Apart from that Q1-2025 stumble, their expansion has been rising since early 2023.In Japan, machinery orders didn't fall as much in May as anticipated (after a big dip in April), so they ended +6.6% higher than year ago levels.In China, so far, the Trump tariffs or the uncertainty surrounding them have had no noticeable negative impact on their exports. They came in at US$325 bln in June, up +5.8% from a year ago and up +$9 bln from May. This was better than expected. Imports were also little-changed, up +1.1% from a year ago, slightly softer than expected. The main impact of the US tariff war against everyone is that China is benefiting as the US makes enemies everywhere. The details by country are here.China's trade surplus widened significantly to +US$115 bln in June, up from +US$99 bln in June 2024. China's trade surplus with the US widened to US$26.5 bln in June, up +47% from May.Meanwhile, new yuan loans rose in June, and by more than expected. Typically, we see a June rise as banks push to achieve quarterly targets. But this rise is far better than even for that, and better than the rise a year ago. Helping was a Beijing push to front-load bond sales being rolled out to support their economy during the tariff trade war. In the end they issued ¥2.24 tln in new loans in June, well above the expected ¥1.8 tln. (This data never shows how much is directed to SOE borrowing.)We should not forget the impact of the consumer subsidies being deployed to keep China's retail demand elevated. They seem quite effective, but clearly they cannot continue indefinitely. Some regions are already starting to turn them off due to cost reasons, so we won't have long to find the reaction to that.In the US all eyes are on what the June CPI inflation will come in at. It was 2.4% in May, and is widely expected to come in at 2.7% in June when it is reported tomorrow. Markets price no chance of a rate cut by the Fed at their next review at the end of the month.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43%, little-changed from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,349/oz, down -US$6 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 just on US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.7 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,767 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. And that takes it just on NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news August 1 is the new deadline for tariff negotiations with the US. It's an endlessly moving 'deadline' bourne out of frustration at being unable to make any meaningful deals.This week will feature a first peek at June inflation components with the selected price data due out on Thursday. Maybe before that we will get the June REINZ data. In Australia, all eyes will be on their June labour market data due on Thursday too.Later today we will get China's June export and import data to be followed later in the week with China's big monthly data dump which will include their Q2-2025 GDP result. It will be a surprise if they have to admit a variance to their official target (5.2%?).In the US it will be all about tariff-setting, interspersed with June CPI data (also likely to match what their government wants - 2.5%). Canada will also release their June inflation result, with a more credible process, and markets expect (3.0%). Japan chimes in with its version, expected to be 3.3%.In the background there will be the start of Q2 earnings results from Wall Street majors, including some big banks.Over the weekend, Canada reported something of a surprise, because their labour market strengthened in June. Not only did they generate +83,000 new jobs in the month when no gains were expected, their jobless rate dipped when it was expected to rise. Even though +70,000 of those new jobs were part-time, the +13,000 new full-time jobs was much better than the -1,000 full-time job losses expected. Even wages rose +3.2% from a year ago, although they did slip slightly from May and have remained flat since January. Given the forces being applied by their bully neighbour, it is hard to know whether this overall June result is just an anomaly or an indication of resilience. Only time will tell.Canada also released May building consent data overnight and it was also unusually strong, up at a +12% pa rate from April. From a year ago the June consent values were up +5.1% on an inflation-adjusted basis. By any standard this is very good too.In the US, the level of tariff-taxes being imposed on Americans is becoming clearer. The latest US Government accounts show them hitting US$27 bln in June, US$113 bln for the nine months to June. Tariffs are paid by the importer and become a cost that will be embedded into how those products are sold. Treasury officials anticipate further growth in tariffs collected, expecting them to reach US$300 bln in the 2025 calendar year.Those added taxes allowed the US Federal Government to report a +US$27 bln surplus in June. In June 2024 they reported a -US$71 bln deficit. In the twelve months to June, they have accumulated a -US$1.9 tln deficit, more than the -US$1.8 tln in the 2024 fiscal year.The tariff boost for June got the benefit of some seasonal shifts, Treasury officials noted. Adjusting for those, June would have shown a -US$70 bln deficit instead of the +US$27 bln surplus actually reported, they said.The weekend brought new tariff threats to Mexico and the EU of 35%. They are moving to unilateral positions because they seem hopeless at negotiating, completely misunderstanding the process.Perhaps we should note that the US dollar has fallen -11% from the Trump II January inauguration to now. In the whole of the Trump I presidency it fell a net -10%. So the decline in the value of the greenback is just getting started this time, it seems. Holding American assets by foreigners is going to involve sinking currency pressures. And it will become much more costly for American investors to buy foreign assets for the same reason. With fiscal mismanagement rife, it is hard to see this 'improving' in the next few years.And some of that uncertainty is leaking into company balance sheets. Credit rating downgrades now exceed upgrade in the listed US corporate scene, the first time that has happened since 2021. Company cash balances are shrinking - not fast yet, but that is a turn. More companies are losing investment grade status. All this goes to the heart of company valuation levels. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.3, far higher than historic benchmarks.And in Japan, we should keep an eye on parliamentary elections that will be held on Sunday, July 20 for their upper house. Given the the national government of conservative Shigeru Ishiba relies on a tenuous coalition with a small religious party, this has become a referendum on Ishiba's stewardship.And China announced a +2% increase in their national state pension starting January 2025. Because we are more than six months into this year, presumably back-pay will be involved. This year's increase, the 21st in a row, comes as studies project the system is on track to run out of money in about a decade. Until 2015, the annual increases were +10% but have shrunk away sharply since as the demographic forces have turned tougher. Their pension system is expected to run out of funds in about 10 years.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, unchanged from Saturday, up +10 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,355/oz, little-changed from Saturday, but up a net +US$18/oz from a week ago.American oil prices are still just over US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$70.50/bbl. That is up a net +US$2 in a week.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.1 USc, unchanged from Saturday, but down -½c from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still at just on 67.6, but down -30 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$118,763, a new record high and up +1.1% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

US equities were mostly lower this week after the S&P and Nasdaq both hit fresh record closes last week. It was a relatively quiet week with the market looking to next week's June CPI report and the kick-off of Q2 earnings. Big Tech and AI developments occupied significant headline space with NVDA becoming the first company with a $4T market cap.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq set fresh record closing highs. It was another quiet session with the market seemingly in waiting mode for June CPI next Tuesday and the start of Q2 earnings season (big banks begin reporting on 15-Jul). The market still seems to be more focused on potential trade policy off-ramps, particularly following this week's reciprocal tariff deadline extension.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Senate has agreed the Trump budget, but only after the Vice President broke a deadlock with a casting vote. Financial markets are wondering about the wisdom in all this with equities hesitating, bond yields turning up, and the USD drifting lower. To be fair, none of these movements are large today. But the implications of massively higher US debt levels are as is the opening of the magic-money accounting they have adopted. It will be the bond market that makes the practical judgement.First however, the overnight dairy auction came in as weak as the futures market suggested it might. The SMP price fell -1.7%, but only to match the prior week's Pulse event. However the more important WMP price fell -5.1% and back to levels last seen at the beginning of the year. One local reason may have been the sharp increase in volumes offered, +10,000 tonnes more than at the prior event two weeks ago, and +6.7% more than the event in the same week a year ago. This volume offer jump came as milk production rose in all key producing regions (except Australia).Overall, prices were down -4.1% in USD terms at this even, down -5.2% in NZD as the greenback weakens further.The price downshift will have analysts reaching for their pencils although it might be too soon for them to backtrack on their 2025/26 payout forecasts. Fonterra's current season results are pretty much locked in and will be reported in late September. But their new year may be off to a soft start.Last week, the US Redbook index was +4.9% higher than year ago levels but still in the easing trend that started in early April.The May level of job openings rose unexpectedly to more than 7.7 mln largely on a surge for foodservice jobs. Analysts didn't see this coming but perhaps they should have given the sharp ICE immigration crackdowns underway. These roles at these volumes will be hard to fill.The latest factory PMI report from the ISM shows a sector still in contraction, being led by weak new order inflows. The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version reported an expansion and a moderate one at that, But both noted rising inflation pressures.It appears that the expected rise in June car sales didn't occur, dipping to its slowest pace of the year.Apparently its a good time to be in the logistics sector in the US with inventory levels rising and supply chains being stressed. The Logistics Managers Index is running at an unusually high level.The Dallas Fed regional services survey reported a continuing contraction, although not as steep in June as May.And the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index was expected to bounce back in July but in fact it resumed the decline in a trend that started in December 2024.After falling to a recent low in April, Japanese consumer sentiment is on the rise again, back to where it was at the start of the year, but not yet back to 2024 levels. But at least it is rising.Yesterday we noted that the official factory PMI for China "improved" but was still showing a contraction. Today, the alternative Caixin factory PMI came in a little better than that, rising from May's tiney contraction to June's small expansion. These shifts don't mean a lot, but at least they are going in an improved direction. The Caixin survey noted "Higher new order inflows supported a renewed rise in production. That said, the rate at which new orders expanded was only marginal amid subdued exports." Trump's trade war may have kneecapped Chinese growth but it hasn't knocked them over.Overnight the ECB released the results of its May survey of consumer inflation expectations and they dipped to 2.8% when a small rise was expected. Consumers apparently thought inflation was running at 3.1% over the past 12 months. Separately the EU released its June CPI data and that shows it running at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May.In Australia, large parts of the east cost is hunkering down for a lashing of strong winds and heavy rain. And that will include Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, and up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, and up +US$45 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer from yesterday, up +50 USc at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is up the same at just over US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down the same at 51.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,292 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just over +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Shoot us a Text.Today is Tuesday! Things are happening in the auto industry, like how lower used car prices are driving down inflation, VinFast is forming a US dealer advisory board and Rivian is pressing ahead on future plans.Show Notes with linksUsed car prices have plummeted over the past year, reaching their lowest level since 2021, and are now the leading category reducing inflation, according to CoPilot's analysis of CPI data.Cox Automotive reports that the average list price for a used vehicle is now $25,251, down 7% from last year and the lowest since summer 2021.The June CPI report shows a 10.1% drop in used vehicle prices over the past year, with a 1.5% decline in the last month alone.The previous surge in used car prices was driven by a supply crunch in new vehicles.CoPilot CEO Pat Ryan explains that the supply of new vehicles has increased by about 50% since July 2023, easing pressure on the used market.“Consumers have finally found themselves with more options to buy new, rather than used,” Ryan noted.EV manufacturer VinFast is strengthening its presence in the U.S. by forming a Dealer Advisory Board to navigate the American market.VinFast aims to expand its U.S. dealership network with strategic advisory board members including David Coyle of Leith VinFast  in NC, Damian Mills of VinFast Triad in NC, David Sansing, Elie Hanna, Bill AuffenbergVinFast has received 70 applications from dealers and plans to establish 125 third-party sales points by the end of 2024.David Coyle, Dealer Principal of Leith VinFast commented “This board represents a great opportunity for open communication and collaboration, ensuring VinFast remains at the forefront of the EV market.”Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe recently sat down with the Verge to cover the EV maker's future plans, why every EV looks like a Tesla, and the joint venture with VW.Rivian announced five new models this year: R2, R3, R3X, and updated versions of R1T and R1S. The R2 is set to launch in 2026 and already has 100K pre-orders.Scaringe believes that the slowdown in EV growth is not due to a lack of demand but rather a lack of variety in available models. He believes there is significant latent demand for EVs that meet diverse consumer needs. “Because of the Model Y's success, you have a lot of incumbents that have built products that look and feel and are shaped a lot like a Model Y.”The $5 billion joint venture with VW focuses on co-developing Rivian's streamlined electronic architecture, which reduces the number of ECUs (electrical control units) in vehicles, simplifying software updates and cost efficiency. VW aims to leverage Rivian's advanced technology across its brands, including Porsche, Audi, and Bentley.Rivian also just launched an EV Charging Outpost near Yosemite National Park, converting an old gas station into a rustic charging site, featuring a lounge area, complimentary librarHosts: Paul J Daly and Kyle MountsierGet the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/ Read our most recent email at: https://www.asotu.com/media/push-back-email

Our experts discuss how high prices for auto insurance have been driving inflation, and the implications for consumers and the Fed now that price increases are due to slow.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Diego Anzoategui: I'm Diego Anzoategui from the US Economics team.Bob Huang: And I'm Bob Huang, the US Life and Property Casualty Insurance Analyst.Seth Carpenter: And on this episode, we're going to talk about a topic that -- I would have guessed -- historically we weren't going to think about too often in a macro setting; but over the past couple of years it's been a critical part of the whole story on inflation, and probably affects most of our listeners.It's auto insurance and why we think we're reaching a turning point.It's Thursday, July 18th at 10am in New York.All right, let's get started.If you drive a car in the United States, you almost surely have been hit by a big increase in your auto insurance prices. Over the past couple of years, everyone has been talking about inflation, how much consumer prices have been going up. But one of the components that lots of people see that's really gone up dramatically recently has been auto insurance.So that's why I wanted to come in and sit down with my colleagues, Diego and Bob, and talk through just what's going on here with auto insurance and how does it matter.Diego, I'm going to start with you.One thing that is remarkable is that the inflation that we're seeing now and that we've seen over the past several months is not related to the current state of the economy.But we know in markets that everyone's looking at the Fed, and the Fed is looking at the CPI data that's coming out. We just got the June CPI data for the US recently. How does this phenomenon of auto insurance fit into that reading on the data?Diego Anzoategui: Auto insurance is a relatively small component of CPI. It only represents just below 3 per cent of the CPI basket. But it has become a key driver because of the very high inflation rates has been showing. You know, the key aggregate the Fed watches carefully is core services ex-housing inflation. And the general perception is that inflation in these services is a lagged reflection of labor market tightness. But the main component driving this aggregate, at least in CPI, since 2022 has been auto insurance.So the main story behind core services ex-housing inflation in CPI is just the lagged effect of a cost shock to insurance companies.Seth Carpenter: Wait, let me stop you there. Did I understand you right? That if we're thinking about core services inflation, if you exclude housing; that is, I think, what a lot of people think is inflation that comes from a tight labor market, inflation that comes from an overheated economy. And you're saying that a lot of the movement in the past year or two is really coming from this auto insurance phenomenon.Diego Anzoategui: Yes, that's exactly true. It is the main component explaining core services ex-housing inflation.Seth: What's caused this big acceleration in auto insurance over the past few years? And just how big a deal is it for an economist like us?Diego Anzoategui: Yeah, so believe it or not, today's auto insurance inflation is related to COVID and the supply chain issues we faced in 2021 and 2022. Key cost components such as used cars, parts and equipment, and repair cost increased significantly, creating cost pressures to insurance companies. But the reaction in terms of pricing was sluggish. Some companies reacted slowly; but perhaps more importantly, regulators in key states didn't approve price increases quickly.Remember that this is a regulated industry, and insurance companies need approvals from regulators to update premiums. And, of course, losses increased as a result of this sluggish response in pricing, and several insurance started to scale back businesses, creating supply demand imbalances.And it is when these imbalances became evident that regulators started to approve large rate increases, boosting car insurance inflation rapidly from the second half of 2022 until today.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so if that's the case, what should we think about as key predictors, then, of auto insurance prices going forward? What should investors be aware of? What should consumers be aware of? Diego Anzoategui: So in terms of predictors, it is always a good idea to keep track of cost related variables. And these are leading indicators that we both Bob and I would follow closely.Used car prices, repair costs, which are also CPI components, are leading indicators of auto insurance inflation. And both of them are decelerating. Used car prices are actually falling. So there is deflation in that component. But I think rate filings are a key indicator to identify the turning point we are expecting this cycle.Seth Carpenter: Can you walk through what that means -- rate filings? Just for our listeners who might not be familiar?Diego Anzoategui: So, rate filings basically summarize how much insurers are asking to regulators to increase their premiums. And we actually have access to this data at a monthly frequency. Filings from January to May this year -- they are broadly running in line with what happened in 2023. But we are expecting deceleration in the coming months.If filings start to come down, that will be a confirmation of our view of a turning point coming and a strong sign of future deceleration in car insurance inflation.Seth Carpenter: So Bob, let me turn to you. Diego outlines with the macro considerations here. You're an analyst, you cover insurers, you cover the equity prices for those insurance, you're very much in the weeds. Are we reaching a turning point? Walk us through what actually has happened.Bob Huang: Yeah, so we certainly are reaching a turning point. And then, similar to what Diego said before, right, losses have been very high; and then that consequently resulted in ultimately regulators allowing insurance companies to increase price, and then that price increase really is what's impacting this.Now, going forward, as insurers are slowly achieving profitability in the personal auto space, personal auto insurers are aiming to grow their business. And then, if we believe that the personal auto insurance is more or less a somewhat commoditized product, and then the biggest lever that the insurance companies have really is on the pricing side. And as insurers achieve profitability, aim for growth, and that will consequently cost some more increased pricing competition.So, yes, we'll see pricing deceleration, and that's what I'm expecting for the second half of the year. And then perhaps even further out, and that could even intensify further. But we'll have to see down the road.Seth Carpenter: Is there any chance that we actually see decreases in those premiums? Or is the best we can hope for is that they just stopped rising as rapidly as they have been?Bob Huang: I think the most likely scenario is that the pricing will stabilize. For price to decrease to before COVID level, that losses have to really come down and stabilize as well. There are only a handful of insurers right now that are making what we call an underwriting profit. Some other folks are still trying to make up for the losses from before.So, from that perspective, I think, when we think about competition, when we think about pricing, stabilization of pricing will be the first point. Can price slightly decrease from here? It's possible depending on how intensive the competition is. But is it going to go back to pre-COVID level? I think that's a hard ask for the entire industry.Seth Carpenter: You were talking a lot about competition and how competition might drive pricing, but Diego reminded all of us at the beginning that this industry is a regulated industry. So can you walk us through a little bit about how we should think about this going forward?What's the interaction between competition on the one hand and regulation on the other? How big a deal is regulation? And, is any of that up for grabs given that we've got an election in November?Bob Huang: Usually what an insurer will have to do in general is that for some states -- well actually, in most cases they would have to ask for rate filings, depending on how severe those rate filings are. Regulators may have to step in and approve those rate filings.Now, as we believe that competition will gradually intensify, especially with some of the more successful carriers, what they can do is simply just not ask for price increase. And in that case, regulators don't really need to be involved. And then also implies that if you're not asking for a rate increase, then that also means that you're not really getting that pricing -- like upward pricing pressure on the variety of components that we're looking at.Seth Carpenter: To summarize, what I'm hearing from Bob at the micro level is those rate increases are probably slowing down and probably come to a halt and we'll have a stabilization. But don't get too excited, consumers. It's not clear that car insurance premiums are actually going to fall, at least not by a sizable margin.And Diego, from you, what I'm hearing is this component of inflation has really mattered when it comes to the aggregate measure of inflation, especially for services. It's been coming down. We expect it to come down further. And so, your team's forecast, the US economics team forecast, for the Fed to cut three times this year on the back of continued falls of inflation -- this is just another reason to be in that situation.So, thanks to both of you being on this. It was great for me to be able to talk to you, and hopefully our listeners enjoyed it too.Bob Huang: Thank you for having me here.Diego Anzoategui: Always a pleasure.Seth Carpenter: To the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen; and share this podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

S&P futures are indicating a lower open today, down (0.64%) after mixed sessions in Asia. European equity markets are also softer, following lower finishes on Tuesday. The top macro stories driving the global market today are mixed macro data from Asia and Europe, alongside renewed geopolitical tensions following former President Trump's comments on Taiwan. UK inflation remained at the BoE's target as June CPI came ahead of estimates at +2%, though services prices are still elevated. The BoE's August rate cut expectations dipped to 25% from 50% prior to the update. New Zealand's Q2 inflation came in below forecasts, softening to +0.4% q/q. Former President Donald Trump's comments on Taiwan defense costs have sparked geopolitical concerns, raising questions about potential changes to U.S. policy should he return to office.Companies Mentioned: Gitlab, Primerica, Eni, KKR, Blackstone

Allen Li, Head of our Municipal Bond Sector Team, reviews trends, opportunities, and idiosyncratic risk in municipal bonds. And U.S. Economist Matt Bush discusses the implications of the soft June CPI release.Related Content:2Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what's next.Read Quarterly Macro Themes2Q24 Fixed-Income Sector ViewsBalancing attractive yields and tight spreads.Read Fixed-Income Sector ViewsThe Economic Cycle Isn't Dead, Merely Delayed…And That's Good for BondsNavigating an economic cycle where old patterns don't seem to apply. Read Portfolio Strategy CommentaryInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.SP 61892

In this episode of Market Minutes, Stacy Pereira talks about the key factors to watch out for today before the domestic market opens. After 6 consecutive weeks of gains, the mood on D-street continues to be upbeat with Nifty looking to further scale from 24,500 levels. Globally, markets will be taking cues from updates in the Trump attempted assasination as well as the Q2 earnings in America. Among stocks declaring their earnings Jio Financial Services , AngelOne will declare results on July 15. In our special voice of the day segment listen, in to C Vijaykumar the MD & CEO of HCL Tech on the company's guidance going forward as well as their initiatives on Generative AI. Market Minutes is a morning podcast that puts the spotlight on hot stocks, key data points, and developing trends.

There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript April 2010https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20100428meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Kelly explains what the negative June CPI number means for the Fed's next move.

Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what this latest inflation data might mean for monetary policy, and the markets. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today's CPI report is expected to show a slight increase in headline inflation on a monthly basis. Bank of America's Aditya Bhave gives his forecast. Plus, Oppenheimer is out with its Best Smidcap Ideas list. Jed Kelly makes the case for Genius Sports. And, sticky inflation may be taking too big a toll on consumer spending. Compass Diversified CEO Elias Sabo explains what his business is seeing.

Today's weaker-than-expected June CPI report raised odds for a September rate cut above 90%, helping rate-sensitive small-cap stocks. Tech and mega caps sold off.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

US equities finished mixed in Thursday afternoon trading. This morning's cooler-than-forecast June CPI report drove today's price action. However, disinflation sparked rotation from big tech toward small caps and non-big tech groups, creating a relative drag on S&P and Nasdaq.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong react to the release of the June CPI data that showed inflation slowing for the month. When will the Fed respond with rate cuts? Jerome Powell is not prepared to say he's confident about inflation. Delta's sagging profts signals trouble for airlines this summer. Home insurance premiums are surging and states are allowing it. The risky loan-trade is back. Goldman strategists say Big Tech's AI splurge is worrying investors.

S&P futures are indicating a higher open, +0.08% as the market awaits for tomorrow's CPI data. Sentiments are improving, after Fed Chair Powell's remarks kept the possibility of a September rate cut in play. The primary macro story today is China's June CPI inflation, which unexpectedly softened amid weak domestic demand. China's CPI inflation rose by +0.2% y/y in June, below the consensus of +0.4%, driven mainly by falling food prices, especially fresh fruits and vegetables. Core inflation remained steady at +0.6%. The PPI fell by (0.8%) y/y, in line with expectations, showing easing declines in upstream prices.Companies mentioned: RTX Corp, Eversource Energy, MarineMax, OpenAI, Microsoft

A day before the June CPI report, major indexes extended their rally amid growing demand for semiconductors and rate cut hopes. The S&P 500 index topped 5,600.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

8 suspected terrorists with ISIS ties arrested by ICE. 16-time champ Joey Chestnut banned from Nathan's hotdog eating contest after endorsement deal with vegan hotdog brand. Woke Wednesday. June CPI report. Retail employees wearing body cameras to deter shoplifters. 

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Dr. Francisco Monaldi, Director of the Latin America Energy Program, along with his colleague Dr. Tony Payan, Director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico, with Rice University's Baker Institute. Francisco last joined us on COBT in December 2022 (episode linked here) and is an expert on Latin American energy, policy, and economics. In addition to his role at the Baker Institute, Tony is a Professor of Social Sciences at the Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez and his research focuses primarily on border studies and US-Mexico relations. It was our pleasure to visit with Francisco and Tony for a Mexico and Latin America energy and geopolitics focused discussion. In our conversation, we examine President Claudia Sheinbaum's recent election, her background as a climate scientist and former Mayor of Mexico City, concerns about her independence and potential influence from former President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), violence in the recent election, implications for democracy and governance, regional perspectives on Mexico's political trajectory, and the potential future direction of Mexico's energy policies under President Sheinbaum. Francisco and Tony share their perspectives on Mexico's decline in energy production, Mexico as a huge consumer of US (especially Texas) natural gas, the broader implications of nearshoring for US-Mexico relations, renewable energy and climate policy, and the importance of future energy policies for economic stability. We discuss Mexico's economic challenges, broader Latin American trends, the potential impact of President AMLO's policies if they persist for another decade, upcoming changes to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the role of US diplomacy and political leverage in shaping Mexico's policies, the need for a comprehensive framework addressing trade, immigration, and crime, and much more. It was an enlightening discussion and we are thankful to Francisco and Tony for sharing their insights with us all. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that this week is crucial for bonds, with the June CPI and FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday potentially confirming or dispelling speculation about a 2024 Fed rate cut. On the crude oil front, WTI has rallied back to ~78/bbl after last week's overselling post-OPEC meeting due to production cut confusion/uneasiness. OPEC's June Monthly Oil Report (linked here) showed unchanged global oil demand estimates for 2024 and 2025, while the IEA's global oil demand estimates (~1.0mmbpd below OPEC's) will be released Wednesday. The 12-month natural gas strip has rallied to ~$3.50/MMBtu (highest since Nov '23) driven by extreme heat forecasted through the month of June which might begin to influence current sizable E&P production curtailments. In Europe, several equity markets sold off, and EU bond yields spiked, notably in France, due to heightened political risk from the EU Parliamentary vote. Conservatives fared better than expected and Green Parties lost significant seats in Belgium, France, Germany and Italy, which could put future climate goals/policies at risk. He ended by noting US equity money flows, usually directed towards Emerging/International markets for diversification, are either stagnant or reduced due to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's outperformance driven by AI and Tech equities. Jeff Tillery noted there has been significant news about the Mexican stock market's performance with Mexico and Brazil underperforming over the past one and three years, influenced by factors such as border issues, higher interest rates, post-election impacts, and cartel problems, but that Mexico's reshoring trend suggests potential gains. We hope you find the discussion as insightful and interesting as

12th June: Crypto & Coffee at 8

The mainstream media is now spinning last week's inflation reports to message that inflation is now under control, therefore the Fed won't need to raise rates further, and that in turn means a ‘soft landing' with no recession. Dr. Rasmus dissects both the consumer price index and producer price index reports issued last week. Reports show that ‘goods' (manufactured things and construction) prices have abated in price, but Services prices (80% of US economy) remain stuck in the 5-6% annual range. In fact, June CPI shows services prices rising more (6.2%) compared to May (5.3%). While some sectors of services are declining (airline,hotels prices) rents remain high. Simultaneously, after falling sharply, energy (gasoline, etc.) prices are rising again as are commodities, housing and utilities. Rasmus explains some of the questionable methods the US Labor Dept uses to dampen actual price hikes—like ‘owners equivalent rent', ‘hedonic pricing', outmoded ‘weights' given certain goods, and by selectively using 14 different ‘base periods' for different key items in the index. Rasmus concludes, services inflation and price gouging remain the defining conditions of current chronic inflation. And that the Fed can't raise interest rates higher without further exacerbating the regional banking instability

#recession #inflation #deflation #taxes #employment #unemploymentIndividual income tax payments to Uncle Sam are running almost half a trillion (with a "T") behind same months in FY 2022. Withholdings are way off and claimed refunds are way up. At the same time, the June CPI showed broad-based disinflation and a little deflation. These two results aren't unrelated.Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE EPISODESYouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic:https://bit.ly/3LH8JlVDISCLOSURESJeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.

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The stellar June CPI inflation report is top of mind for Mark, Cris and Bernard.  The report arguably couldn't have been better, as the conversation makes clear.  The podcast then turns to a discussion of whether the worst is over for the troubled single family housing market with Lance Lambert, the real estate editor for Fortune. No one has a better pulse of the market than Lance.For more on Lance Lambert, click here or follow him on twitter @NewsLambertFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

As the saying goes, there's no place like home. And more and more countries think that's the case when it comes to their gold. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about why many central banks and sovereign wealth funds are bringing their gold home. He also talks about gold's performance through the first half of 2023 and the June CPI data. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/44uH3un Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news. TOPICS DISCUSSED -More countries are repatriating their gold -Gold was one of the best-performing assets during H1 2023 -What drove the gold price through the first six months of the year? -June CPI data -What does the latest CPI mean for the Fed? -When will high-interest rates crack something else in the economy?

Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer discussed the cooler-than-expected June CPI inflation data that resulted in fresh 52-week highs for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Are the markets overbought? In an exclusive, Jim interviewed Oracle CEO Safra Catz on the floor of the NYSE after her company rang the opening bell. Also in focus: Microsoft and Activision after a federal judge rejected the FTC and gave the companies' merger deal a green light, Domino's shares surge on the company's partnership with Uber, playing the “Magnificent 7” stocks, Jamie Dimon on Fed tightening, a look ahead to David Faber's exclusive interview with Disney CEO Bog Iger from Sun Valley, Idaho on Thursday. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, joins to break down the June CPI reading and outlook for the Fed's next move. Tim Craighead, Director of Research and Senior European Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to give us an outlook for equities in the UK and Europe and breaks down UK stagnation and uncertainty. Natalie Trevithick, Head of Investment Grade Credit Strategy at Payden & Rygel, joins to discuss bond market moves amid inflation data and the recent jobs report. Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to break down the Fed's next move after the June CPI reading. Greg Friedman, CEO of Peachtree Group, discusses commercial real estate. John Authers, Senior Editor with Bloomberg Opinion, joins to talk about the June CPI and outlook for the Fed and the economy. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, joins to discuss the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index and MBA Mortgage applications. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association ("WNA"). Sama joined the WNA as Director General in late 2020 and has had an extensive career in nuclear with over 20 years of experience in nuclear engineering and energy policy, serving in industry, academia, and international organizations. The World Nuclear Association represents the global nuclear industry to promote the industry and importantly, provide authoritative information to key organizations and political authorities. We were delighted to connect with Sama for a global nuclear discussion. It was spectacular and wide-ranging and we so enjoyed Sama's practical nature and worldwide perspective.   To start the discussion, Sama outlined the organization's history and current member base of over 190 members in 44 countries. The WNA's members are responsible for most of world uranium mining, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication; all reactor vendors; major nuclear engineering, construction, and waste management companies, and much of the world's nuclear generation. We discuss how the perception of nuclear energy has changed since Sama joined in 2020 and the organization's key areas of focus including working with policy makers and market designers globally to develop pragmatic policies for low-carbon energy sources, engaging the finance community to support profitable nuclear projects, and developing a strong global supply chain and talent pool. Sama shares her perspective on the state of nuclear in almost every part of the world, the opportunities for nuclear beyond electricity, financing and funding, novel applications, and the global supply chain. During the discussion, Sama mentions the periodic forecasts the WNA performs (the World Nuclear Association Fuel Report), linked here. Sama is one of the original founders of the North American Young Generation in Nuclear (linked here) and we touch on the importance of drawing new talent and fostering diversity, inclusivity and equity within the global nuclear community. We also cover nuclear power in the developing world and the opportunity for nuclear power to serve as a catalyst for social and economic development with collaboration between nuclear organizations and development banks. For more nuclear news, the World Nuclear News website is linked here. The entire discussion with Sama left us more bullish on the potential for greater use of nuclear power globally.   The Veriten team kicked off the show: Mike Bradley highlighted two key economic stats this week (June CPI & PPI) which could influence interest rate policy at the July 26th FOMC meeting. He also noted the recent trade higher in WTI crude oil price (higher end of its recent $65-$75/bbl. trading band) due to OPEC's & Saudi's commitment to maintain their respective production cuts through August as well as China taking additional economic stimulus steps. He noted that these actions have shifted both Brent and WTI structure from contango back to backwardation. Mike flagged last week's energy equity sector outperformance and noted a few recent interesting equity market developments including an upcoming Nasdaq 100 rebalance (July 24th) which could result in temporary weakness in several of its largest AI/Tech equity members. He also noted another construction setback for the Equitrans Mountain Valley Pipeline and wrapped up by highlighting Oklo Inc. (an advanced fission technology company) announcing a deal to go Public via Merger with AltC Acquisition Corp. (a Sam Altman led SPAC). Oklo's press release is

(7/12/23) Markets' anticipation of inflation would result in a moderate decline (in fact, June CPI printed at .2% for a 3% inflation rate). Meanwhile the NFIB report reflected improving moods among small businesses, and other data shows consumers are more confident about spending money = more inflation. How do companies protect profit margins? Cut costs and/or raise prices = inflation. Speculative mood is returning to markets. Charlie Munger: The first $100k is the toughest. avoid distractions from long-term goals by short-term narratives. Things rich people do: Shopping with coupons (remember S&G Green Stamps?) The significance of your savings rate. Choosing to build wealth (avg. work week = 34.5/hours vs entrepreneurs' work habits). Savings strategies & priorities and avoiding the lifestyle creep. There are no shortcuts to building wealth: Saving 30% of income, for starters. The flaws in modern financial planning include unrealistic gains and ignorance of negative returns: Why pensions fail. Managing need, wants, wishes. SEG-1: CPI Day: Markets Anticipation of Inflation SEG-2: How to Make Your First $100k SEG-3: Savings Strategies & Priorities SEG-4: Fatal Flaws in Modern Financial Planning Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKIfpOqAENM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell , "Why We've All Become Bettors Against the CPI," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlsvcU1JnIA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Surplus Cash is Ending" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd02kgURCXA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Register for our next web event: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6816835709464/WN_ItmsNXpsRs2uKE6xOrJtdg ------- Articles mentioned in today's show: Q2 Earnings Season Begins – Will It Support The Bulls? https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BuildingWealth #FinancialPlanning #Savings #ConsumerSpending #Economy #CPI #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing

Prime Day starts today and some consumers will be clearing out their cart, thanks to big deals. We’ll discuss the reasoning behind savings events, and what retailers hope these sales will do for, well, sales. Plus, the PGA Tour is before a Senate committee today to defend their merger with LIV and economists await the June CPI.

Prime Day starts today and some consumers will be clearing out their cart, thanks to big deals. We’ll discuss the reasoning behind savings events, and what retailers hope these sales will do for, well, sales. Plus, the PGA Tour is before a Senate committee today to defend their merger with LIV and economists await the June CPI.

US futures are pointing to a lower open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened with losses, following a mixed Asian session. June CPI is the main event for this week. Forecasts are for an uptick in monthly headline inflation but a drop in core. China tech stocks outperformed in Monday's Asian session after regulators ended a multi-year probe of Ant Group by levying $1B fine over company's planned IPO in 2020. Companies Mentioned: Ant Group

US futures are pointing to a lower open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened with losses, following lower levels in Asia. Market is waiting for some key employment data over the final two days of this week, along with next week's release of the June CPI and the start of Q2 earnings season. Traders see a July rate increase as a done deal and there is also the possibility of further hike beyond, though data is likely to be key. Companies Mentioned: Meta, Bank of China, ICBC, Industrial Bank, Bank of Communications, Hua Xia Bank