Podcast appearances and mentions of june cpi

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and the world are facing a new jolt of inflation as the hot war activity spread. The US central bank response? ignore the risks and pretend things will return to normal soon. But first, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, their largest dip since mid-May, and driven by a -10% fall in refinance activity. And that came as their benchmark mortgage interest rate rose yet again, now its highest in a year. Also falling sharply last week were US crude oil stocks, down much more than expected. They have fallen in 12 of the past 14 weeks, and this latest one is one of the larger retreats. Worse perhaps, their strategic oil reserves are now at at levels they last had in 1983 just after they started building these reserves in 1982, and their economy is now nine times as large. These strategic reserves have gone from double the private system holdings, to only 75% of them. It is poublic mismanagement on an epic scale. The US Fed held its policy rate unchanged, even while noting they have high inflation that isn't easing and they have "supply shocks that have driven price increases" well above their 2% goal. But it was a split decision with three members voting to hike +25 bps. One of those was not Jerome Powell; he was in the nine who voted for the hold. Chairman Warsh's style is all over this statement because it was very short with little transparency. And Warsh's inflation fighting vow seems to be just talk. Across the Pacific, Singapore reported that their producer prices rose more than +30% in June from a year ago, maintaining the pace of increase for non-oil goods they have had since March. In South Korea, there has been real drama on their stock exchange with declines so sharp they had to temporarily suspend trading. It is all related to perceptions about tech valuations. Even though these companies are reporting sharp profit increases, investors worry that Chinese chipmakers are about to eat their lunch. At one point yesterday the share market there was down -13%, suddenly wiping out all the prior AI gain euphoria. But it ended down 'only' +6% to cap a five-day retreat of -17%. In Australia, June CPI inflation came in at 3.8%, and less than the 4.0% expected. It was kept up by the expiry of household energy support measures, but the falls in fuel costs more than offset that. More here. Will this deter the RBA from moving their policy rate on August 11? It may do, but inflation expectations remain very high. Some analysts now expect a hawkish hold. The lower CPI hit the AUD hard yesterday, presumably because FX markets no longer see higher interest rates imminently. The global credit risk environment has evolved heading into the second half of 2026 but continues to be driven by two main sources of short-term risk, according to Fitch Ratings; rising vulnerability to an AI-related market correction and persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. This is on top of a broader context of slowing US consumer momentum, high inflation risks stemming from the 2Q energy shock and structural public finance pressures limiting the ability to respond to risk events. Credit risk premiums will rise, says Fitch. Iran was annoyed Trump claimed talks were taking place when they weren't, so they reinforced their point. Then the US and Saudi Arabia attacked Iran-linked forces in Iraq. And the Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers off Yemen. This mess isn't going away. June air cargo demand rose in June, at a time of a relative lull in Middle East tensions. It was up +8.5% overall, up +9.6% for international trade. Asia/Pacific activity was up +9.5% from a year ago. There were larger increases in air cargo trade with North America. Meanwhile the China-to-Europe cargo train trade is surging, added to by very fast 15 day transit times for peak demand of air conditioning units, for example. Shipping via the Suez canal chokepoint will probably never recover for consumer goods. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday and with a small push higher after the Fed decision. The price of gold has risen to US$4075/oz, back up +US$45 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$58.50/oz, back up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have risen sharply by +US$5.50 from yesterday at now just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$90.50/bbl and up +US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 8 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (6 dark with transponders off) and 16 entering for new loads (11 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at just under 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,890 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's clear need for less oil has pushed its price sharply lower even as both the Gulf of Hormuz and the Red Sea remain effectively shut. As other sources raise their output, global demand is being undermined, essentially by this Chinese transition. But first up today, we should note the overnight dairy Pulse auction. Prices achieved were a bit more than -1% lower than the prior week's full auction in USD, but a bit less than that in NZD. In the US, the ADP weekly private payrolls monitoring recorded another easing, only +15,000 and extending the easing trend that has been in place since early May. The US merchandise trade deficit came in more than -US$100 bln in June, a second straight month of an unusually high negative level. Year-on-year, exports were up, but imports rose faster. Meanwhile both their retail (+3.1%) and wholesale inventories (+4.1%) rose in June, reflecting the stockpiling trend that has been in place for a while now. The expected improvement in the Richmond Fed factory survey didn't eventuate in July from June, but it remains modestly positive. New order flows edged lower while price and cost levels remained elevated. But there was a solid improvement in the Dallas Fed services sector recorded in their July survey. Nationally, the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey in the US took a step lower in July. This extends its falling trajectory that started in early 2025. The auction for the US Treasury 7yr Note was well supported earlier today but again, investors are getting higher yields for the elevated risk they perceive. This latest one delivered a median yield of 4.41% (high of 4.47%) compared to 4.20% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Japan, a major 7.1 earthquake in the south has caused widespread damage and deaths. And Japan's parliament has approved a plan to create a "second capital" capable of keeping the country running if disaster strikes Tokyo. It is likely to be in Osaka. Malaysia said producer prices there were +9.2% higher in June than a year ago. This was an unexpected jump from the anticipated +7.7% which was similar to the May rise. Staying in the region, Singapore reported its birth rate for 2025 and for the first time since its independence, it has fallen below +30,000 in a year. It, like many places, is on a steep trajectory of lower fertility. Industrial production in India rose +7.3% in June from a year ago, more than expected and the sharpest pace of expansion in nearly two years. It seems to be bouncing back from the initial shocks from the Middle East conflict. Later today, we will be getting the June CPI result from Australia and a no-change 4.0% rate is anticipated. But yesterday Governor Michelle Bullock was out speaking and affirming that they are worried that these high levels are embedding, so their 1-3% target range is not likely in the medium term. Some are wondering if this was a signal that an unexpected hike is about to be delivered next week. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4030/oz, down -US$48 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$57/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen another -US$3.50 from yesterday at now just over US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl and down -US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 3 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and three entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,568 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Iran is claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz as the US backs away, unable to exert the pressure it thought it could. The pause in fighting there has calmed markets significantly even if few ships are actually transiting. Elsewhere, the US durable goods order report for June was a strong one, up +8.9% from the same month a year ago, but only up +0.3% from May, so most of the gain was in prior months and the June rise was much less than the expected +2.5%. Capital goods were up +4.1% from a year ago, but excluding defense and aircraft, they were up a good +14%. The Dallas Fed regional factory survey was positive too, even if only marginally. That completes seven consecutive months of only marginal changes, some up, some down. Price and wage pressures remained markedly elevated, they said. There were two large US Treasury bond auctions overnight, both well supported. But both saw sharpish rises in yields from the prior equivalent events a month ago. The two year median yield rose +13 bps, and the five year yield rose +21 bps on the same basis. In Canada, their central bank surveys market participants quarterly and these professionals were less upbeat than at the previous survey. They foresaw no policy rate changes in 2026, but rises in the next two years. They also foresee a 25% chance of recession, although more likely growth in the 1-2% range. This is lower than in the prior survey. Trump's trade tensions are the main risk they see. Singapore has surprised markets with another tightening move, its second consecutive such shift. Singapore regulates its monetary policy via its exchange rate (the S$NEER). It is raising its exchange rate to dampen inflationary pressures. The June CPI inflation rate there rose to 1.9%, its highest since August 2024. Singapore's industrial production growth came in less than expected in June, up +7.2% from a year ago when a +9% rise was expected, down from the almost +18% in May. China reported strong industrial profit growth in June, up +15% from the same month a year ago although this was less than the claimed +18% growth rate for the first half of 2026. They say their factory sector profits rose more than 20% on the year-to-date basis, but companies producing electricity saw theirs fall more than -4%. Local listed companies did well, but foreign companies hardly made any gains. Local private companies came in in-between. Expectations are rising that the current CCP summit in Beijing will deliver new stimulus programs. The Indonesian central bank chief has been pushed out with two years left on his term. The Indonesian government wasn't happy with the standard approach of the experienced governor, and wanted the central bank to support it's all-out drive for economic growth rather than inflation control. It was a sudden change, but one preceded by the President appointing a family member as a deputy governor earlier in the year (remember Turkey?). Indonesia has been suffering a weak currency due to the political interference. In Europe, Spain, France and Italy are all battling out-of-control wildfires. Everywhere is battling intense heat. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4078/oz, up +US$26 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$58.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen sharply and by US$8 from yesterday at now just over US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89.50/bbl and down -US$9. Hormuz transits are still basically halted There have been 3 crude tankers and only 2 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and two entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is only marginally more active. The IEA has been reviewing why oil markets have proven more resilient through the current crisis than some had feared and they point out that oil output in countries not directly affected by the Persian Gulf troubles has risen notably and most countries are permitting export flows. They also point o the major release of strategic reserves to cushion the shocks, with 290 mln barrels released so far with more than 1 bln still in reserve. But they note that markets for refined products are considerably tighter than for crude oil. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just on 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,917 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news tankers in the Red Sea have been hit by missiles fired from Yemen. This is unnerving global markets today, and oil prices have jumped everywhere. Bond yields are surging, pushing up mortgage rates and weighing on equity valuations, especially for tech firms. But first in the US, there were 192,000 initial jobless claims last week, a notable drop and far lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for and lower than expected. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, also lower than a year ago but actually an increase from a week ago as claimants are staying on benefits longer even if it is now much harder to get initially qualified. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index came in slightly below trend, but enough to suggest the US economic expansion was still in place in June. But if the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracking is to be believed, that expansion is at a modest level. Consensus forecasts are being trimmed too. The US Treasury 10 year TIPS yield of inflation-protected bonds jumped about +30 bps today and back to the highs we last saw in the pandemic and prior to that in the GFC. Canadian retail sales expanded in June, extending their positive track to six consecutive months. This was for both value and volume terms, to be +5.9% higher than year ago levels. Canadian CPI is running at 2.8%. Across the Pacific, China's foreign direct investment rose +US$11.1 bln in June, better than expected and better than the -US$7.6 bln fall in the same month in 2025. Meanwhile, China's consumer trade-in subsidy program is losing momentum as appliance and car demand weakens. South Korea said its economic activity expanded an impressive +3.7% in Q2-2026, almost the same as the +3.8% in Q1. This is their fastest expansion since Q4-2021, and came in above market estimates of +3.5%. Strong exports were a key factor in this result. Singapore's June CPI came in at +1.9% in June and although that was its highest since August 2024 it was less than the 2% expected. And that was because there was no change from May. In India, we should keep an eye on youth protests, because they are spready and gaining surprisingly wide support. In Europe and as expected by many, the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged at its July meeting overnight, following the +25 bp hike in June. Since then, policymakers have struck a more cautious tone, adopting a "wait-and-see" approach as softer inflation, wage growth, economic activity, and inflation expectations have reduced the urgency for another move. But that may have changed today with the unexpectedly large spike in oil prices. But who knows how fast that may change again? Markets anticipate another ECB rate hike in September. Staying in the EU, consumer sentiment improved in July. That is to say it got less negative. And in a decision likely to intensify trans-Atlantic trade tensions, European Union regulators overnight hit Google with a €890 mln fine for illegally undercutting competition through its dominance in search. Google will not be hurt by this directly in the short term because it reported almost +US$41 bln in profits in Q2-2026 alone. If it is hurt, it will be from their heavy cash burn for its AI buildout. The Australian labour market grew surprisingly strongly in June, adding +76,300 new jobs, far better than the +15,000 expected. Their jobless rate was stable at +4.4%. More than half the new jobs were in NSW, with good gains also in Queensland and Western Australia. But Victoria shed jobs in the month. This strength will add spine to the RBA's fight against rising inflation (4.0%) because they will be now less worried about a weak economy The RBA next meets on August 11, 2026 - 17 days away. Global container freight rates fell -4% last week to be +74% higher than year ago levels. Outbound rates from China were the basis of the pullback from the prior week. Bulk cargo rates were down -8% for the week, and these are now a third higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday and its highest since January 2025.  Wall Street is -1.4% lower today on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -2.5%.  The price of gold has fallen to US$4042/oz, down -US$98 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$57.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are another +US$6 higher from yesterday at just on US$93/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$101.50/bbl and up +US$7. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been no crude tankers and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). More than 700 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is another -40 bps lower from yesterday at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just over 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -40 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,762 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/-7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Brian Szytel recaps a Tuesday market rebound led by momentum stocks and semiconductors, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq up 1.3%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.63% and oil climbed to about $84 WTI and $91 Brent amid the Iran war, pressuring inflation expectations and rates. With no major economic data, he focuses on demand-pull inflation and the lagged relationship between money supply (M2) and CPI, noting M2 is up ~3.5% year-to-date and nearly 6% over 12 months, suggesting inflation could bias higher 12–18 months out despite a cooler June CPI. He discusses the Fed's inflation-fighting rhetoric, an estimated high chance of a rate hike before year-end, and potential headwinds to risk assets from tighter policy and balance-sheet shrinkage. He also explains that point moves typically refer to the Dow for public discussion, while deeper market analysis relies on the broader S&P 500. 00:00 Market Bounce Recap 01:02 Rates and Oil Move 01:37 Money Supply and CPI 03:05 Fed Hike Risk Ahead 04:52 Dow vs S&P Explained 06:41 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Host Dick Donahue talks about inflation easing, June CPI and PPI, and six options for retirement funds.

Home prices hit a new all-time high of $440,600 this week — the 36th straight month of year-over-year gains — while the June CPI report showed inflation cooling faster than expected, dropping 0.4% month-over-month, the largest one-month decline since April 2020. Matt Lombardi and Steve Kaempf break down what's driving the numbers, why gas and energy prices are doing the heavy lifting on inflation, and what June's 2.4% dip in existing home sales really means heading into the second half of the year.Plus: the 21st Century Road to Housing Act is officially law after a pocket passage, and the guys unpack what the zoning reform and commercial-to-residential conversion provisions could mean for inventory over the next few years. They also cover a developing story out of Missouri, where the American Real Estate Association and the Missouri Association of Realtors are teaming up to fight two ballot amendments that could raise housing costs, while NAR stays silent. Rounding it out: highlights from the 2026 NAR Member Profile, Google's expanding partnership with House Canary, and this week's viewer mail.New episodes of Market Trends drop Monday every week — subscribe so you don't miss the next one.#RealEstateNews #HousingMarket2026 #HomePrices #InflationReport #MarketTrends #ChicagoRealEstate #HousingLaw #RealEstateInvesting #NAR #RealtorLife #peoplenotitles #markettrends Full episodes available at www.peoplenottitles.comPeople, Not Titles podcast is hosted by Steve Kaempf and is dedicated to lifting up professionals in the real estate and business community. Our inspiration is to highlight success principles of our colleagues.Our Success Series covers principles of success to help your thrive!www.peoplenottitles.comIG - https://www.instagram.com/peoplenotti...FB - https://www.facebook.com/peoplenottitlesTwitter - https://twitter.com/sjkaempfSpotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/1uu5kTv...

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is a good job we have sports to allow us a temporary distraction from the geopolitical mess that the US has initiated and which seems to just go on and on. A shut Hormuz and a jump in oil prices is bringing Groundhog Day. Back in the economic world, Tuesday's June CPI release will dominate this week's local data releases. Markets expect an elevated 4% rate, keeping the pressure on the OCR and the RBNZ to contain it. Events in the Middle East aren't helping. The next OCR review is not until September 2 however. In Australia, it will be all about their June labour market release. Markets expect only modest jobs growth and no jobless rate change. But developments between the US and Iran will remain in the global spotlight after strikes escalated, impacting energy prices and interest rate outlooks for central banks. There is not much market-moving economic data expected from the US this week. But earnings season results will be watched for indications and surprises. In Japan, they will release trade and inflation updates (1.6%?). Taiwan will be interesting for its industrial production data. Korea for its Q1-2026 GDP outcome. And Indonesia will review its policy rate again, after the unusual interim hike, and then taking it to possibly 6%. For them it is all about supporting their weakening currency. There is little significant data out of China this week. However, here's something we haven't covered so far. Their June trade data for China shows that its crude oil imports are now at a ten year low. In fact their June crude oil imports were -11.4% lower than a year ago in volume terms. It is a shift that will have global implications. We can also note that China closed nearly 30,000 kindergartens and primary schools in 2025. It is the consequence of the growing demographic slump we have been noting for some time. Recent data released by the Ministry of Education revealed a severe structural divergence: while early childhood and primary education are shrinking rapidly, high schools and universities are expanding to absorb a demographic bulge from earlier birth peaks. Three Chinese airlines have ordered 95 Airbus commercial jets. This has swelled Airbus's non-US order book over rival Boeing. Airbus (89) delivered more aircraft than Boeing (64) in June. Boeing is losing market share fast for clients outside the US, no doubt a direct consequence of reactions to nativist policies from Washington and risks of trade retaliation. Singapore's export growth fell back sharply and unexpectedly in June. Electronics exports remained elevated, but non-electronics exports were unusually weak in the month. Their big decliners were for petrochemicals, food, and non-monetary gold. Trade with the US was especially hard hit. Across the Pacific in Canada, the spread of their enormous wildfires are becoming an international irritant. Canada is struggling to contain them. In an unusual move, the US is refusing to assist, even though Canada sends crews and support to the US when they have wildfire emergencies. There are also major wildfires in many US states as well. In the US housing starts in June which came in +3.6% higher than year ago levels and brushing off their unusually weak May report. But for all the positives that some Fed district factory surveys have shown, these are not showing up in US industrial production data yet. You might have thought the increased local stockpiling surge would be visible by now. But to June, it isn't. US industrial production rose a paltry +0.1% in June to be +1.1% higher than a year ago. And that is its weakest increase in three months. Although consumers are still very negative in their sentiment, there was a notable improvement in the latest survey results from the widely-respected and long running University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. With the second straight month of 10% jumps, consumer sentiment climbed to its least negative reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the petrol pump in recent weeks. All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions. This month's rise in sentiment was consistent across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party. Will it last? If it truly is directly related to pump prices, then this weekend's outsized jump in crude oil prices (below) and the turn up in pump prices in the past few days, suggests not. Today's pump prices are almost back to month-ago levels when the sentiment survey hit its record lows. Looking backwards over the past month, US data has seen improvements. But these have not been enough to return the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking to where it was in May, so a sharp downshift is still in place. And it is worth noting that 'consensus forecasts' by mainstream economists have not yet reflected that retreat. The RBNZ also produces a GDP nowcast. After a somewhat unexpected blip up two weeks ago, the latest data has returned our Q2-2026 growth to a minimal level. The same for Q3-2026. (There is no Aussie GDP nowcast from an official institution. The Melbourne Institute version won't be updated until the end of the month.) In Australia, the latest weekend's residential auction activity was low, possibly back to levels they had in 2018. They are finally having the housing market correction necessary to address their affordability problems. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down a net -2 bps for the week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4017/oz, up +US$12 from Saturday but down -US$83 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$56/oz, down -US$3.50 for the week. Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from Saturday, up +US$3.50 from Friday at just on US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$71.50 and US$76 respectively so a +16% rise since then. Hormuz transits have been reduced to a trickle overnight There have been just 2 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 9 entering for new loads (6 dark) and almost this traffic isl Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.4 USc but up +80 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding, at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +80 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,542 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, up +1.4% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

This week's discussion focused on encouraging inflation data, steady consumer spending, and the market implications of continued AI-driven investment. The team reviewed June CPI results, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony, and the latest Beige Book findings ahead of the July FOMC meeting. While inflation showed signs of moderation, panelists noted that price pressures remain above target and are likely to keep the Fed on hold. The conversation also explored market rotation away from some AI leaders toward cyclical sectors, improving earnings trends, resilient credit markets, and the potential for broader economic participation as growth expands beyond mega-cap technology.03:43 — June CPI, Fed testimony, and Beige Book overview08:25 — Economic outlook, inflation trends, and AI-driven growth12:16 — Fed expectations, rates, and credit market dynamics17:28 — Market rotation, earnings season, and AI stock performance22:55 — Healthcare opportunities and broadening market leadershipAdditional ResourcesRead: Key Questions - Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) a “Bubble”?Read: IRS Releases Its Dirty Dozen Tax Scams and Schemes for 2026 Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn 

The latest CRE Exchange covers a packed week of data and market. Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai work through the June CPI print, consumer credit pullback, and existing home sales data before digging into the WSJ economist survey and Fed meeting minutes, where the most notable detail is a credit market splitting between large and small borrowers. The episode closes with early Q2 bank earnings from the four largest US banks, including reserve releases on office CRE loans at Bank of America and Wells Fargo that suggest the office credit cycle may be turning, and lender scrutiny around data center financing may be growing.Key moments01:50 Inflation hedge data03:13 Patriotic owners trivia06:57 Consumer credit update08:56 Housing and CPI prints12:31 WSJ Economist Survey22:59 Fed minutes breakdown29:34 Big bank earnings takeaways36:23 New segment: CRE Bag O' Random!42:38 Upcoming Calendar and WrapResources mentionedConsumer Credit — G.19 (May 2026) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htmExisting Home Sales — June 2026 - https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-4-decrease-in-juneConsumer Price Index — June 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htmWSJ Economist Survey — July 2026 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998FOMC Meeting Minutes — June 16–17, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htmMassachusetts YIGBY Bill — H.5562 - https://malegislature.gov/Bills/194/H5562

In 1914 the Fed ran on 40 people and no computers. Today it takes 23,000. Fire them all and let AI do it... it can't do any worse.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThis episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.Kevin Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, and Peter Schiff breaks down a hearing where everyone discussed inflation while misdefining the term and ignoring their own role in causing it. June CPI came in at -0.4% versus the expected -0.1%, dropping year-over-year inflation to 3.5% — but the entire decline came from a temporary oil price drop that is already reversing as the Iran war reignites and oil climbs back 20% in July. Bond yields tell the real story: the 30-year is back near 5.1% and the 10-year near 4.6%, erasing nearly the entire post-CPI rally.Schiff's biggest revelation from the hearing: the Fed employs 23,000 people to do a job that required just 40 when it opened in 1914 — with no computers — and argues the entire institution could be replaced by a single AI or abolished outright. He dismantles Warsh's claim of "regime change" at the Fed as being as fake as regime change in Iran, exposes the redefinition of "price stability" to mean prices that rise just slowly enough that people stop complaining, and shows how the 2% target was always a lie invented to justify inflation. He covers Warsh admitting inflation is a tax while planning to keep levying it, the court throwing out Trump's self-negotiated IRS settlement that granted his family immunity, and the AI CapEx bubble turning tech's biggest cash generators into massive borrowers that will break the bond market.Chapters:00:00 AI Spending Arms Race01:08 Markets Brace for CPI06:07 CPI Surprise and Gold Whipsaw07:34 Oil Driven Inflation Mirage11:40 What Inflation Really Means14:11 Congress and Fed Share Blame17:58 Fed Headcount Shock22:32 Two Percent Target Myth27:05 Regime Change and Price Stability33:40 Day One Recap Continues34:09 Grow My X Account35:13 Congress Inflation Theater36:06 Trump Grift Claims37:30 IRS Settlement Outrage39:51 Rates Versus Balance Sheet41:08 Who Wins Low Rates43:46 Fed And Black Workers49:09 AI Bubble Warning51:15 Hyperscalers Debt Spiral55:38 Bond Market Breaking Point58:16 Strategy Stock Dilution01:00:30 Bitcoin Levels And Regrets01:01:30 Subscribe And Sign OffFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #AIBubbleOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

June CPI data just delivered the biggest monthly drop since 2020, signaling that aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may be permanently off the table. With inflation cooling down due to retracting energy prices, the stock market is showing heavy resilience despite lingering geopolitical tensions and an ongoing affordability crisis across the United States.We also dive into the exploding space economy with our long-term bullish outlook on SpaceX stock following recent pullbacks, alongside the rising risks in private credit defaults. Finally, we cover upcoming legislative catalysts for the crypto market, real-world asset tokenization, and the crucial difference between a surging stock market and everyday economic realities.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDJune CPI inflation data and energy price impactsSpaceX stock outlook and private space sector growthRising private credit defaults and high-yield debt risksUpcoming Q2 corporate earnings from major financial banksThe massive disconnect between stock market highs and everyday affordabilityNew cryptocurrency legislation and real-world asset tokenizationThe economic impact of AI data center capital expendituresKEY TAKEAWAYSThe economy is not the stock market. You can have a highly profitable stock market while everyday consumers face severe affordability crunches in housing, food, and energy.Cooling inflation and dropping CPI numbers are currently heavily tied to lower oil prices, removing the immediate threat of Federal Reserve rate hikes.Record highs in private credit defaults signal that investors should be cautious of chasing high-yield debt without proper collateral and structuring.SpaceX represents a massive long-term opportunity as it consolidates capital and innovates in global satellite internet, robotics, and aerospace.Building long-term wealth requires consistent, disciplined investing—even an automated $350 a month can compound into significant capital over time.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONImagos Income Fund: Text "INCOME" or "DEALS" to 844-447-1555 to learn more about Matty A's private debt fund targeting 10% fixed returns paid out monthly.

The June CPI report just dropped and inflation fell from 4.2% to 3.5% — the biggest one-month decline in over six years. Wall Street is celebrating. Stocks are ripping. But here's what nobody's talking about: this news is even BETTER for real estate investors than it is for stock owners.In this episode, Sam and Lucas break down exactly what happened this morning, what inflation actually is, what causes it, and why owning real estate is the ultimate cheat code in ANY inflation environment — whether it's rising, falling, or staying flat.You'll learn:What the new inflation numbers actually mean for interest ratesWhy the Fed's next move could reshape the housing marketHow real estate destroyed inflation over the last 5 years (47% vs 19%)The 5 wealth engines that fire HARDER during inflationWhy rents have outpaced wages 2-to-1 for 40 yearsHow your fixed-rate mortgage becomes cheaper to pay off every yearWhy savers lose while asset owners quietly get richPlus: World Cup Cahtter, LeBron's off-season sightings, and the internet's favorite 2,200-pound Tasmanian elephant seal.If you've ever wondered why inflation makes the rich richer while everyone else falls behind — this is the episode that connects every dot.FasterFreedom Capital- www.fasterfreedomcapital.comFREE Flip Training- https://flip.fasterfreedom.com/training

Big economic shifts are underway!

The ultimate political storm has officially arrived!

If you followed the headlines, you know that the June CPI report was even cooler than expected. This generated optimism that maybe, just maybe, the Fed is finally getting inflation under control.  But there's more to the story. In this episode of the Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey tells you the rest of the story, revealing that despite falling CPI, inflation is alive and well. On top of that, the good CPI news may green-light even more inflation.  Mike also points out a very interesting trend in the gold market. Gold is up during Asian trading sessions through the first half of the year, even as the yellow metal sold off during North American sessions. What is this telling us? 

Matthew Tuttle explains why the June CPI report could be a game changer for markets, breaking down how the latest inflation data could influence everything. He discusses why oil and gas prices are the key variables to watch, arguing that higher energy prices could reignite inflation, and shares his outlook for inflation and the stock market.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Yesterday's release of June CPI inflation data in the US provided a welcome boost to US equity and Treasury prices, as traders drastically lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in July. The mood was further bolstered by Q2 earnings from Wall Street's big five banks. The buoyant mood continued in Asia this morning, especially in tech, with the Kospi rallying over 7% at one point. We had two guest speakers on today's podcast. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research highlights his key takeaway from the inflation report and outlines his expectations for Fed policy going forwards. And our equity strategist, Nenad Dinic, assesses those US bank earnings and provides some insights into what the early European earnings reports are revealing. Tune in to find out more!(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:50) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:11) - Equity markets update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (14:50) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

We got a better-than-expected June CPI report: Inflation slowed in both the goods and services sectors. But it's hard to say whether that trend will continue and how it might affect the Fed's next inflation rate decision. Also in this episode, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress, so we break down his approach to central bank communication and the Humphrey-Hawkins Act. Plus, an egg price-fixing scheme, the hog lobby, and credit cards.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories from today's episode: Inflation slowed in June. What does that mean for interest rates?Can the hog lobby — and falling prices — get Americans to eat more pork?Cracking open the price-fixing scandal behind rising egg pricesWhat higher credit card spending means for the economyWhy Kevin Warsh is on Capitol Hill today

We got a better-than-expected June CPI report: Inflation slowed in both the goods and services sectors. But it's hard to say whether that trend will continue and how it might affect the Fed's next inflation rate decision. Also in this episode, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress, so we break down his approach to central bank communication and the Humphrey-Hawkins Act. Plus, an egg price-fixing scheme, the hog lobby, and credit cards.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories from today's episode: Inflation slowed in June. What does that mean for interest rates?Can the hog lobby — and falling prices — get Americans to eat more pork?Cracking open the price-fixing scandal behind rising egg pricesWhat higher credit card spending means for the economyWhy Kevin Warsh is on Capitol Hill today

Software stocks falling on the back of International Business Machines releasing a bleak earnings warning, causing the stock to lose a fourth of its value. The traders break down what the plummet means for the broader software market and why the fall could be a buying opportunity. Then, the June CPI results coming in softer than expected, cooling from  months-long upward moves. Former Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher gives his thoughts on what the reversal means for Fed policy and why he isn't saying goodbye to inflation yet. Plus, bank earnings season kicking off with Goldman Sachs soaring but Citigroup sinking, the latest on the Iran blockade, what's next for SK Hynix. Fast Money Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber covered all of the bases on a busy day for the markets: IBM shares plunge on weaker-than-expected preliminary Q2 results; Five of the nation's six largest banks post quarterly beats to kick off earnings season; June CPI comes in tamer than expected ahead of Kevin Warsh's first Capitol Hill testimony as Fed Chairman; SK Hynix rebounds from Monday's sell-off. Also in focus: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's earnings call message about the market and AI; Apple gets downgraded to the equivalent of a "sell" rating; An exclusive with Paramount's lead outside counsel defending the company's merger with Warner Bros. Discovery — after twelve state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block it.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss June CPI falling to 3.5% and core CPI to 2.6% both below expectations with the biggest month-over-month drop since May 2020, Trump proposing a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo and reinstating the blockade sending WTI to $80 and Brent to $87, Chris Waller's hawkish pivot as Warsh builds Fed credibility, IBM's 19% drop after warning on the quarter as clients reprioritized CapEx toward memory and cybersecurity, HCA's 6% drop on ACA payer mix, Samsung exploring a US ADR listing after SK Hynix's blockbuster $26.5B raise, SLB and Liberty Energy pushing into data center power, improving NFIB and Fastenal readings, and a very strong bank earnings kickoff with BAC investment banking fees up 50%.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading. The rate rally on a cooler June CPI was a positive for risk sentiment, offering some pushback against the recent hawkish lean in Fed narrative. The momentum bounce was another tailwind following the latest unwind pressure that continued to be largely chalked up to technical dynamics.

Energy's cooldown in price action showed up in the June CPI, says Kevin Hincks. He walks investors through what's churning underneath the headline numbers and how it plays into the FOMC's inflation picture as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to speak Tuesday morning. However, crude oil is climbing again as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. Kevin believes President Trump's rhetoric behind the volatility doesn't explain what's really happening behind the scenes. IBM Corp.'s (IBM) earnings also pose a big question mark for software. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Inflation and the Fed take Marley Kayden's attention to close Tuesday's trading session. She talks about her perspective on the state of the economy as the June CPI print shows some signs of inflation easing. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years and a key gauge of underlying inflation was little changed, taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC Capital Markets, reacts to June CPI.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation cooled sharply in June as the latest CPI report beat expectations, with headline prices dropping 0.4% month-over-month and annual inflation falling to 3.5%. Trump admits the MOU with Iran was test and the IRGC and the regime is finding out what that means. Donald Trump is set to address the nation this coming Thursday, with many speculating irregularities over the 2020 election. Predictably, the Left goes into immediate prevent defense. On the Hill, Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett testifies about judicial security needs, leading me to continue to suggest her judicial rulings are compromised. Packed with analysis on economics, geopolitics and Washington headlines, this episode delivers unfiltered insights you won't get elsewhere. Please take a moment to rate and review the show and then share the episode on social media. You can find me on Facebook, X, Instagram, GETTR, TRUTH Social, TikTok, YouTube and Rumble by searching for The Alan Sanders Show. And, consider becoming a sponsor of the show by visiting my Patreon page!

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of more Trump flip-flops in haphazard moves that show Trump has no strategy or exit plan from the mess he created in the Middle East. But first, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight and prices mostly dipped from last week's full event. Both butter and SMP dipped -0.4%, but the exception was WMP which rose +0.3%. The recently higher NZD has made those changes less in local currency, reinforcing the Fonterra payout reduction. Elsewhere, the US released its June CPI result with a somewhat surprising dip with it falling to 3.5% after May's three year high 4.2%. Markets had expected a lesser dip to 3.8%. The biggest retreat was the -9.7% fall in petrol prices (although this monitoring only recorded a +6.8% fall). Inflation was on the mind of Fed speakers overnight, especially Kevin Warsh, who reiterated his commitment to fighting inflation saying he had "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". But he had no details or plans on how he is to tackle inflation. He was presenting the Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. The Fed's target is inflation at 2% and it has been above that for 63 consecutive months now, so the credibility of achieving that target is not high. The ADP weekly private jobs monitoring fell again, now under +20,000 and the first time it has reported a gain that low since mid-March. It has been tracking lower since early May. The lower fuel costs shifted the needle in the NFIB sentiment survey for SMEs, resulting in a less-negative June result. But these same respondents cited inflation as their biggest threat, the highest since October 2024. Yesterday, big US banks reported strong earnings gains, helped by their role in the Big Tech IPOs and other tech fundraising. Singapore said its economic activity was +5.7% higher in Q2-2026 than in the same quarter in 2025. While this was a bit less than the +6.3% first quarter result, it was above the expected +5.5% outcome. China said its June exports were up a remarkable +27% from the same month a year ago, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of the expected inflationary effects of upcoming producer price inflation from the Middle East shocks, and by China's push to export cars, and far more than the +18% expected. It also said its imports were +36% higher than a year ago, driven by crude oil imports. That all meant that it had a near record trade surplus of +US$126 bln in June, only exceeded by the January 2025 +US$136 bln in that month. In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey became less pessimistic in July, mainly because their fuel price pressures eased - and their interest rate fears moderated as well. Job loss concerns eased too. But consumers remained gloomy about the economy overall and that meant they don't think now is a good time to buy a major appliance. And, although it recovered somewhat from very low levels, Aussies are still very uncertain where their housing market is going. The story was quite similar for business sentiment in July as reported by the NAB survey. However, this one reported a sharper-than-expected improvement even if it is still negative. Price pressures also moderated, with input price growth slowing to its weakest pace since February and retail prices falling for the first time in seven years. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4059/oz, up +US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1.5o from yesterday at just on US$78.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz transits have essentially dried up as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 3 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours and all of those tied to Iran (1 dark with transponders off) but only 9 entering for new loads, all Iran-linked (1 dark). No-one was prepared to pay Trump's tolls, so Trump backed down (in a weird rambling announcement), less than 24 hours after announcing the levies. It is unknown if any are paying Iran's tolls. Plans to build pipelines to avoid the area are getting new momentum now. So Iran is shifting its focus to blockading the Red Sea at Yemen. The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is up +50 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,477 and up +4.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Five major banks report earnings Tuesday morning, and analysts expect them to be rosy. Despite a volatile energy market and uncertain geopolitical climate, U.S. banks are turning strong profits. They've got AI investment and a booming stock market to thank. Plus, the inflation beat: Steep producer inflation could soon show up in consumer prices, economists aren't sure how long overall inflation will stick around, and we check in with three small business owners ahead of the June CPI.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories from today's episode: Rapidly rising producer prices could spell trouble for the economyWhy are big banks doing so well in this economy?Prices may remain elevated well into next yearPrivate jets and fake phone notifications are all part of the "hustlebro" scam

Five major banks report earnings Tuesday morning, and analysts expect them to be rosy. Despite a volatile energy market and uncertain geopolitical climate, U.S. banks are turning strong profits. They've got AI investment and a booming stock market to thank. Plus, the inflation beat: Steep producer inflation could soon show up in consumer prices, economists aren't sure how long overall inflation will stick around, and we check in with three small business owners ahead of the June CPI.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories from today's episode: Rapidly rising producer prices could spell trouble for the economyWhy are big banks doing so well in this economy?Prices may remain elevated well into next yearPrivate jets and fake phone notifications are all part of the "hustlebro" scam

Send us Fan MailThis video breaks down the key market drivers for the week ahead, focusing on the upcoming June CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual congressional testimony. Markets will also digest a flurry of US data—retail sales and producer prices—as well as China's latest quarterly GDP growth figures. Meanwhile, monetary policy takes the spotlight as the Bank of Canada is projected to hold rates unchanged. Stay ahead of the key events that could drive volatility across global markets in this week's market outlook.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news an OPEC decision overnight may bring lower fuel prices much sooner. But then, this will depend on the volume of Hormuz crossings. But first, this coming week locally will be dominated by the RBNZ's OCR review on Wednesday. Economists are divided on whether an inflation-fighting hike will come, and financial markets are pricing one in at 76%. The split voting at the May 27 review, where the external members all wanted a hike, but the majority internal members didn't, is just as likely to be repeated. ASB is saying that locally, easing oil prices have strengthened our economic outlook and reduced the risk of a prolonged inflation shock. Lower fuel costs and stronger than expected economic momentum have put the recovery back on a firmer footing. In Australia, the data out this week will be mainly about the Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge, and about job ad changes. In the US, their data releases will focus on service sector activity and existing home sales as they, like Europe, start to battle excessively hot conditions. In Japan, the focus will be on defending the yen. They will also release June machine tool order data. China will release June CPI and PPI data this week. Over the weekend, China released their unofficial services PMI and it came in quite positive for June, similar to May. Growth rates for activity and new business remain strong. They recorded the strongest rise in employment since July 2024 and the fastest input cost inflation in over two years. Service sector firms there are optimistic about the immediate future. The overall result was better than the official China services PMI. In Japan, their services PMI returned to growth in June, but cost pressures intensified, but here business confidence remained subdued. Which is in contrast to their quite positive factory PMI. In South Korea we should probably note a very bumpy run recently by their stock market. It is dominated by major technology and semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, so it is like the Nasdaq on steroids. This gives it unusual volatility, and that volatility has been on display in the past two weeks. This market hit a new record high on June 22 but has fallen -11% since. On Friday, it rose +5.8% however but even that still left it down -3% for the week. Over the past year, this equity market has risen a stunning +165% with most of it in 2026 and most of it tech-related. In Vietnam, they posted a high Q2-2026 growth rate of +8.4%, building on their +7.8% Q1-2026 rate. (How can they report so quickly?) But this latest result will disappoint them because they have set a 2026 target of +10% and that now looks unlikely to be achieved, derailed somewhat by the Middle East conflict, also by missing their infrastructure build-out targets. Inflation eased to 4.7% in June from May's 5.6%, moving closer to the government's 4.5% inflation target this year. The World Bank has now reclassified Vietnam as an upper-middle-income economy, effective July 1. The FAO global Food Price Index retreated for a second consecutive month in June, led down by falling cereals prices as harvests stay high, despite concerns in the US and Australia. Dairy prices eased slightly too, but meat prices stayed elevated. However it is vegetable oil prices that are keeping this index from falling faster. In the US, the latest update of the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking reveals a sudden turn from high optimism about economic expansion, to a dour outlook. It has been rare that this model has come in lower than 'consensus' forecasts. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, unchanged from this time Saturday but a +12 bps rise from this time last week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4174/oz, unchanged from Saturday, up +US$100 from a week ago. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, unchanged from Saturday too, up +US$3.50/oz for the week. Oil prices are little-changed but slightly firmer from Saturday at just under US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still at US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits picked up Friday but then on renewed uncertainties fell back again over the weekend with just 10 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 19 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 15 entering for new loads (1 dark). Large tankers which are exiting are now choosing to do so in Oman-controlled lanes. And we should probably note attacks on a ships in the Red Sea near Yemen over the weekend, adding another layer of uncertainty. OPEC met over the weekend, and raised output by +188,000 barrels/day. They have Middle East members who need maximum revenues to recover from the conflict. So we may end up awash in oil and sharply lower prices. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just over 57.1 USc, up +70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are still at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +60 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,563 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday, but up almost +4% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months. We continue to expect a rotation in core inflation towards the US, but have scaled back the size of this projected US-RoW inflation gap while also pushing back its expected timing.  A synchronized slowing in global growth alongside moderating wage inflation is likely to weigh on service price pressures more broadly while core goods inflation should ease modestly outside the US once the front-loading lift unwinds and transshipments from China are closed off.    Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist   This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5030422-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5031696-0 For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Some decisions are hard. Some decisions are easy.  In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, Mike Maharrey talks about one of each. Should the Fed cut or raise interest rates? That's a hard decision, and the June CPI didn't give much clarity. Mike breaks down the report and examines various ways to interpret it.  Should you have silver? That decision seems like a no-brainer given the fundamental and technical dynamics, as Mike explains. 

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we examine JPMorgan's play to charge for consumer data. Plus, Robbie sits down with Curinos' Ken Flaherty and Richard Martin to discuss key opportunities for lenders to attract, retain, and grow more profitable customer relationships, across both first mortgages and home equity products. And we close by looking at reaction to the June CPI report as well as the latest PPI figures.Thank you to Ocrolus. Ocrolus is transforming the mortgage industry with AI-powered data and analytics, featuring cutting-edge tools for automated indexing, income analysis, and discrepancy insights. Ocrolus is empowering underwriters to make timely, confident lending decisions. Whether you need to verify income across complex pay scenarios or review borrower documents with confidence, Ocrolus helps mortgage teams move at the speed of automation with the precision of human oversight. Learn more at ocrolus.com/mortgage.

Tariffs are back, and Axel Merk says they're already pushing prices up. We chat about how higher import costs show up in inflation, what the Fed might do, and how Axel is using cash, bonds, and gold to stay ready.#Inflation #Tariffs #AxelMerk #federalreserve -----------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------

June consumer inflation coming in as expected: Carl Quintanilla and Sara Eisen broke down the key categories to watch, sectors most impacted by tariffs, and what it all means for stocks alongside the Fed. Famed investor Mario Gabelli joined the team with his take on it all – along with some specific stock picks… While Former Fed Governor Randy Kroszner argued today's print doesn't move the needle on rates. Plus: a deep-dive on the big banks, as JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo kick off earnings from the group this week (all beating estimates).  Also in focus: the President's headed to Pittsburgh today for Pennsylvania's first ever Energy and Innovation Summit… with billions of dollars in deals and commitments around AI and data centers expected to be (or already) announced. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright joined the team live from the ground with his answers to America's growing power needs – along with recent OPEC developments, and more.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at how investor demand is impacting mortgage characteristics. Plus, Robbie sits down with Ocrolus' Rebecca Seward on how Ocrolus is redefining mortgage underwriting with its Inspect platform, enabling real-time condition creation and automated loan reviews to improve quality, reduce costs, and streamline operations for lenders of all sizes. And we close by hypothesizing how the June CPI report will impact Fed timing of rate cuts.Thank you to Ocrolus. Ocrolus is transforming the mortgage industry with AI-powered data and analytics, featuring cutting-edge tools for automated indexing, income analysis, and discrepancy insights. Ocrolus is empowering underwriters to make timely, confident lending decisions. Whether you need to verify income across complex pay scenarios or review borrower documents with confidence, Ocrolus helps mortgage teams move at the speed of automation with the precision of human oversight. Learn more at ocrolus.com/mortgage.

Though early affects of tariffs might show up in today's June CPI report, inflation data and bank earnings could dominate the day, keeping tariff policy off the front page.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0131-0725)

Mark Vitner and Jeffrey Cleveland break down June CPI, which cooled as shelter costs dipped. Mark thinks the Fed is “still on course” after the report. He also expects the PPI to read about the same when it is released tomorrow. However, he thinks the labor market is “much weaker” than data shows. Jeffrey thinks rate cuts will start in September and we could potentially see multiple this year. Housing costs cooling “should keep inflation in check,” he adds. Jeffrey sees the tariffs as a drag on the economy and expects GDP to hit 1.5% this year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Host Jennifer Sanasie breaks down the latest news in the crypto industry as inflation in the U.S. slightly rose in June.Inflation in the U.S. slightly rose in June but was mostly in line with expectations. Has inflation eased enough for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting rates later this year? CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts “CoinDesk Daily.”-Midnight is a privacy-enhancing blockchain introducing vital, programmable privacy and selective disclosure capabilities.It means DApps can allow users to control what information is revealed without putting sensitive data on-chain, allowing you to break free from the limitation of choosing between utility or privacy.We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free-This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week - how to think about this past weekend's tariff developments, high equity valuations, June CPI data, and bank earnings.

Scott Bauer surveys the commodities markets. He is still “moderately bullish” on Bitcoin as it hits news highs but is a “little concerned” about a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event this week. On the U.S. dollar, he attributes its recovery to euro weakness and says there's still pressure to move lower. He previews the June CPI report, released tomorrow morning, saying the market could sell off if the number comes in hot.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week including the US-led tariff war, the US June CPI report and China's monthly economic activity data.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance  This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.  This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.   The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer  The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.    

US equities were mostly lower this week after the S&P and Nasdaq both hit fresh record closes last week. It was a relatively quiet week with the market looking to next week's June CPI report and the kick-off of Q2 earnings. Big Tech and AI developments occupied significant headline space with NVDA becoming the first company with a $4T market cap.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq set fresh record closing highs. It was another quiet session with the market seemingly in waiting mode for June CPI next Tuesday and the start of Q2 earnings season (big banks begin reporting on 15-Jul). The market still seems to be more focused on potential trade policy off-ramps, particularly following this week's reciprocal tariff deadline extension.

Our experts discuss how high prices for auto insurance have been driving inflation, and the implications for consumers and the Fed now that price increases are due to slow.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Diego Anzoategui: I'm Diego Anzoategui from the US Economics team.Bob Huang: And I'm Bob Huang, the US Life and Property Casualty Insurance Analyst.Seth Carpenter: And on this episode, we're going to talk about a topic that -- I would have guessed -- historically we weren't going to think about too often in a macro setting; but over the past couple of years it's been a critical part of the whole story on inflation, and probably affects most of our listeners.It's auto insurance and why we think we're reaching a turning point.It's Thursday, July 18th at 10am in New York.All right, let's get started.If you drive a car in the United States, you almost surely have been hit by a big increase in your auto insurance prices. Over the past couple of years, everyone has been talking about inflation, how much consumer prices have been going up. But one of the components that lots of people see that's really gone up dramatically recently has been auto insurance.So that's why I wanted to come in and sit down with my colleagues, Diego and Bob, and talk through just what's going on here with auto insurance and how does it matter.Diego, I'm going to start with you.One thing that is remarkable is that the inflation that we're seeing now and that we've seen over the past several months is not related to the current state of the economy.But we know in markets that everyone's looking at the Fed, and the Fed is looking at the CPI data that's coming out. We just got the June CPI data for the US recently. How does this phenomenon of auto insurance fit into that reading on the data?Diego Anzoategui: Auto insurance is a relatively small component of CPI. It only represents just below 3 per cent of the CPI basket. But it has become a key driver because of the very high inflation rates has been showing. You know, the key aggregate the Fed watches carefully is core services ex-housing inflation. And the general perception is that inflation in these services is a lagged reflection of labor market tightness. But the main component driving this aggregate, at least in CPI, since 2022 has been auto insurance.So the main story behind core services ex-housing inflation in CPI is just the lagged effect of a cost shock to insurance companies.Seth Carpenter: Wait, let me stop you there. Did I understand you right? That if we're thinking about core services inflation, if you exclude housing; that is, I think, what a lot of people think is inflation that comes from a tight labor market, inflation that comes from an overheated economy. And you're saying that a lot of the movement in the past year or two is really coming from this auto insurance phenomenon.Diego Anzoategui: Yes, that's exactly true. It is the main component explaining core services ex-housing inflation.Seth: What's caused this big acceleration in auto insurance over the past few years? And just how big a deal is it for an economist like us?Diego Anzoategui: Yeah, so believe it or not, today's auto insurance inflation is related to COVID and the supply chain issues we faced in 2021 and 2022. Key cost components such as used cars, parts and equipment, and repair cost increased significantly, creating cost pressures to insurance companies. But the reaction in terms of pricing was sluggish. Some companies reacted slowly; but perhaps more importantly, regulators in key states didn't approve price increases quickly.Remember that this is a regulated industry, and insurance companies need approvals from regulators to update premiums. And, of course, losses increased as a result of this sluggish response in pricing, and several insurance started to scale back businesses, creating supply demand imbalances.And it is when these imbalances became evident that regulators started to approve large rate increases, boosting car insurance inflation rapidly from the second half of 2022 until today.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so if that's the case, what should we think about as key predictors, then, of auto insurance prices going forward? What should investors be aware of? What should consumers be aware of? Diego Anzoategui: So in terms of predictors, it is always a good idea to keep track of cost related variables. And these are leading indicators that we both Bob and I would follow closely.Used car prices, repair costs, which are also CPI components, are leading indicators of auto insurance inflation. And both of them are decelerating. Used car prices are actually falling. So there is deflation in that component. But I think rate filings are a key indicator to identify the turning point we are expecting this cycle.Seth Carpenter: Can you walk through what that means -- rate filings? Just for our listeners who might not be familiar?Diego Anzoategui: So, rate filings basically summarize how much insurers are asking to regulators to increase their premiums. And we actually have access to this data at a monthly frequency. Filings from January to May this year -- they are broadly running in line with what happened in 2023. But we are expecting deceleration in the coming months.If filings start to come down, that will be a confirmation of our view of a turning point coming and a strong sign of future deceleration in car insurance inflation.Seth Carpenter: So Bob, let me turn to you. Diego outlines with the macro considerations here. You're an analyst, you cover insurers, you cover the equity prices for those insurance, you're very much in the weeds. Are we reaching a turning point? Walk us through what actually has happened.Bob Huang: Yeah, so we certainly are reaching a turning point. And then, similar to what Diego said before, right, losses have been very high; and then that consequently resulted in ultimately regulators allowing insurance companies to increase price, and then that price increase really is what's impacting this.Now, going forward, as insurers are slowly achieving profitability in the personal auto space, personal auto insurers are aiming to grow their business. And then, if we believe that the personal auto insurance is more or less a somewhat commoditized product, and then the biggest lever that the insurance companies have really is on the pricing side. And as insurers achieve profitability, aim for growth, and that will consequently cost some more increased pricing competition.So, yes, we'll see pricing deceleration, and that's what I'm expecting for the second half of the year. And then perhaps even further out, and that could even intensify further. But we'll have to see down the road.Seth Carpenter: Is there any chance that we actually see decreases in those premiums? Or is the best we can hope for is that they just stopped rising as rapidly as they have been?Bob Huang: I think the most likely scenario is that the pricing will stabilize. For price to decrease to before COVID level, that losses have to really come down and stabilize as well. There are only a handful of insurers right now that are making what we call an underwriting profit. Some other folks are still trying to make up for the losses from before.So, from that perspective, I think, when we think about competition, when we think about pricing, stabilization of pricing will be the first point. Can price slightly decrease from here? It's possible depending on how intensive the competition is. But is it going to go back to pre-COVID level? I think that's a hard ask for the entire industry.Seth Carpenter: You were talking a lot about competition and how competition might drive pricing, but Diego reminded all of us at the beginning that this industry is a regulated industry. So can you walk us through a little bit about how we should think about this going forward?What's the interaction between competition on the one hand and regulation on the other? How big a deal is regulation? And, is any of that up for grabs given that we've got an election in November?Bob Huang: Usually what an insurer will have to do in general is that for some states -- well actually, in most cases they would have to ask for rate filings, depending on how severe those rate filings are. Regulators may have to step in and approve those rate filings.Now, as we believe that competition will gradually intensify, especially with some of the more successful carriers, what they can do is simply just not ask for price increase. And in that case, regulators don't really need to be involved. And then also implies that if you're not asking for a rate increase, then that also means that you're not really getting that pricing -- like upward pricing pressure on the variety of components that we're looking at.Seth Carpenter: To summarize, what I'm hearing from Bob at the micro level is those rate increases are probably slowing down and probably come to a halt and we'll have a stabilization. But don't get too excited, consumers. It's not clear that car insurance premiums are actually going to fall, at least not by a sizable margin.And Diego, from you, what I'm hearing is this component of inflation has really mattered when it comes to the aggregate measure of inflation, especially for services. It's been coming down. We expect it to come down further. And so, your team's forecast, the US economics team forecast, for the Fed to cut three times this year on the back of continued falls of inflation -- this is just another reason to be in that situation.So, thanks to both of you being on this. It was great for me to be able to talk to you, and hopefully our listeners enjoyed it too.Bob Huang: Thank you for having me here.Diego Anzoategui: Always a pleasure.Seth Carpenter: To the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen; and share this podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript April 2010https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20100428meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU