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Yes, but these are special dolls! Here's a quick story about some dolls I was given to help me stop worrying about the future! It was a cool gift and I've used them for decades. Take a listen to see if you might need a set of these!  https://www.TheWorkLady.com  Jan McInnis is a top change management keynote speaker, comedian, and funny motivational speaker who helps organizations use humor to handle change, build resilience, and strengthen leadership skills. With her laugh-out-loud stories and practical tips, Jan shows audiences how humor isn't just entertainment—it's a business skill that drives communication, connection, and stress relief.   A conference keynote speaker, Master of Ceremonies, and comedy writer, Jan has written material for The Tonight Show with Jay Leno as well as radio, TV, and syndicated cartoon strips. She's the author of two books—Finding the Funny Fast and Convention Comedian—and her insights on humor in business have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The Huffington Post. For over 25 years, she has been helping leaders and teams discover how to bounce back from setbacks, embrace change, and connect through comedy.   Jan has delivered keynote speeches at thousands of events nationwide, from the Federal Reserve Banks to the Mayo Clinic, for industries that include healthcare, finance, government, education, women's leadership events, technology, and safety & disaster management. Her client list features respected organizations such as: Healthcare: Mayo Clinic, Kaiser Permanente, Abbott Pharmaceuticals, Health Information Management Associations, Assisted Living Associations Finance: Federal Reserve Banks, Merrill Lynch, Transamerica Insurance, BDO Accounting, American Institute of CPAs, credit unions, banking associations Government: U.S. Air Force, Social Security Administration, International Institute of Municipal Clerks, National League of Cities, public utilities, correctional associations Women's Leadership Events: Toyota Women's Conference, Go Red for Women, Speaking of Women's Health, Soroptimists, Women in Insurance & Financial Services Education: State superintendent associations, community college associations, Head Start associations, National Association of Elementary and Middle School Principals Safety & Disaster: International Association of Emergency Managers, Disney Emergency Management, Mid-Atlantic Safety Conference, risk management associations   Her background as a Washington, D.C. marketing executive gives her a unique perspective that blends business acumen with stand-up comedy. Jan was also honored with the Greater Washington Society of Association Executives "Excellence in Education" Award. Along with her podcast Finding the Funny: Leadership Tips from a Comedian, Jan also produces Comedian Stories: Tales From the Road in Under 5 Minutes. Whether she's headlining a major convention, hosting a leadership retreat, or teaching resilience at a safety conference, Jan's programs give audiences the tools to laugh, learn, and lead.  

Job growth was better than expected in September with the best job gains since April, according to the delayed government report. But key data is still missing, and questions remain about the strength of the economy. That uncertainty comes as the Fed prepares to consider another rate cut. Geoff Bennett discussed more with Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

My fellow pro-growth/progress/abundance Up Wingers in America and around the world:What really gets AI optimists excited isn't the prospect of automating customer service departments or human resources. Imagine, rather, what might happen to the pace of scientific progress if AI becomes a super research assistant. Tom Davidson's new paper, How Quick and Big Would a Software Intelligence Explosion Be?, explores that very scenario.Today on Faster, Please! — The Podcast, I talk with Davidson about what it would mean for automated AI researchers to rapidly improve their own algorithms, thus creating a self-reinforcing loop of innovation. We talk about the economic effects of self-improving AI research and how close we are to that reality.Davidson is a senior research fellow at Forethought, where he explores AI and explosive growth. He was previously a senior research fellow at Open Philanthropy and a research scientist at the UK government's AI Security Institute.In This Episode* Making human minds (1:43)* Theory to reality (6:45)* The world with automated research (10:59)* Considering constraints (16:30)* Worries and what-ifs (19:07)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation. Making human minds (1:43). . . you don't have to build any more computer chips, you don't have to build any more fabs . . . In fact, you don't have to do anything at all in the physical world.Pethokoukis: A few years ago, you wrote a paper called “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?,” which argued that growth could accelerate dramatically if AI would start generating ideas the way human researchers once did. In your view, population growth historically powered kind of an ideas feedback loop. More people meant more researchers meant more ideas, rising incomes, but that loop broke after the demographic transition in the late-19th century but you suggest that AI could restart it: more ideas, more output, more AI, more ideas. Does this new paper in a way build upon that paper? “How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be?”The first paper you referred to is about the biggest-picture dynamic of economic growth. As you said, throughout the long run history, when we produced more food, the population increased. That additional output transferred itself into more people, more workers. These days that doesn't happen. When GDP goes up, that doesn't mean people have more kids. In fact, the demographic transition, the richer people get, the fewer kids they have. So now we've got more output, we're getting even fewer people as a result, so that's been blocked.This first paper is basically saying, look, if we can manufacture human minds or human-equivalent minds in any way, be it by building more computer chips, or making better computer chips, or any way at all, then that feedback loop gets going again. Because if we can manufacture more human minds, then we can spend output again to create more workers. That's the first paper.The second paper double clicks on one specific way that we can use output to create more human minds. It's actually, in a way, the scariest way because it's the way of creating human minds which can happen the quickest. So this is the way where you don't have to build any more computer chips, you don't have to build any more fabs, as they're called, these big factories that make computer chips. In fact, you don't have to do anything at all in the physical world.It seems like most of the conversation has been about how much investment is going to go into building how many new data centers, and that seems like that is almost the entire conversation, in a way, at the moment. But you're not looking at compute, you're looking at software.Exactly, software. So the idea is you don't have to build anything. You've already got loads of computer chips and you just make the algorithms that run the AIs on those computer chips more efficient. This is already happening, but it isn't yet a big deal because AI isn't that capable. But already, one year out, Epoch, this AI forecasting organization, estimates that just in one year, it becomes 10 times to 1000 times cheaper to run the same AI system. Just wait 12 months, and suddenly, for the same budget, you are able to run 10 times as many AI systems, or maybe even 1000 times as many for their most aggressive estimate. As I said, not a big deal today, but if we then develop an AI system which is better than any human at doing research, then now, in 10 months, you haven't built anything, but you've got 10 times as many researchers that you can set to work or even more than that. So then we get this feedback loop where you make some research progress, you improve your algorithms, now you've got loads more researchers, you set them all to work again, finding even more algorithmic improvements. So today we've got maybe a few hundred people that are advancing state-of-the-art AI algorithms.I think they're all getting paid a billion dollars a person, too.Exactly. But maybe we can 10x that initially by having them replaced by AI researchers that do the same thing. But then those AI researchers improve their own algorithms. Now you have 10x as many again, you have them building more computer chips, you're just running them more efficiently, and then the cycle continues. You're throwing more and more of these AI researchers at AI progress itself, and the algorithms are improving in what might be a very powerful feedback loop.In this case, it seems me that you're not necessarily talking about artificial general intelligence. This is certainly a powerful intelligence, but it's narrow. It doesn't have to do everything, it doesn't have to play chess, it just has to be able to do research.It's certainly not fully general. You don't need it to be able to control a robot body. You don't need it to be able to solve the Riemann hypothesis. You don't need it to be able to even be very persuasive or charismatic to a human. It's not narrow, I wouldn't say, it has to be able to do literally anything that AI researchers do, and that's a wide range of tasks: They're coding, they're communicating with each other, they're managing people, they are planning out what to work on, they are thinking about reviewing the literature. There's a fairly wide range of stuff. It's extremely challenging. It's some of the hardest work in the world to do, so I wouldn't say it's now, but it's not everything. It's some kind of intermediate level of generality in between a mere chess algorithm that just does chess and the kind of AGI that can literally do anything.Theory to reality (6:45)I think it's a much smaller gap for AI research than it is for many other parts of the economy.I think people who are cautiously optimistic about AI will say something like, “Yeah, I could see the kind of intelligence you're referring to coming about within a decade, but it's going to take a couple of big breakthroughs to get there.” Is that true, or are we actually getting pretty close?Famously, predicting the future of technology is very, very difficult. Just a few years before people invented the nuclear bomb, famous, very well-respected physicists were saying, “It's impossible, this will never happen.” So my best guess is that we do need a couple of fairly non-trivial breakthroughs. So we had the start of RL training a couple of years ago, became a big deal within the language model paradigm. I think we'll probably need another couple of breakthroughs of that kind of size.We're not talking a completely new approach, throw everything out, but we're talking like, okay, we need to extend the current approach in a meaningfully different way. It's going to take some inventiveness, it's going to take some creativity, we're going to have to try out a few things. I think, probably, we'll need that to get to the researcher that can fully automate OpenAI, is a nice way of putting it — OpenAI doesn't employ any humans anymore, they've just got AIs there.There's a difference between what a model can do on some benchmark versus becoming actually productive in the real world. That's why, while all the benchmark stuff is interesting, the thing I pay attention to is: How are businesses beginning to use this technology? Because that's the leap. What is that gap like, in your scenario, versus an AI model that can do a theoretical version of the lab to actually be incorporated in a real laboratory?It's definitely a gap. I think it's a pretty big gap. I think it's a much smaller gap for AI research than it is for many other parts of the economy. Let's say we are talking about car manufacturing and you're trying to get an AI to do everything that happens there. Man, it's such a messy process. There's a million different parts of the supply chain. There's all this tacit knowledge and all the human workers' minds. It's going to be really tough. There's going to be a very big gap going from those benchmarks to actually fully automating the supply chain for cars.For automating what OpenAI does, there's still a gap, but it's much smaller, because firstly, all of the work is virtual. Everyone at OpenAI could, in principle, work remotely. Their top research scientists, they're just on a computer all day. They're not picking up bricks and doing stuff like that. So also that already means it's a lot less messy. You get a lot less of that kind of messy world reality stuff slowing down adoption. And also, a lot of it is coding, and coding is almost uniquely clean in that, for many coding tasks, you can define clearly defined metrics for success, and so that makes AI much better. You can just have a go. Did AI succeed in the test? If not, try something else or do a gradient set update.That said, there's still a lot of messiness here, as any coder will know, when you're writing good code, it's not just about whether it does the function that you've asked it to do, it needs to be well-designed, it needs to be modular, it needs to be maintainable. These things are much harder to evaluate, and so AIs often pass our benchmarks because they can do the function that you asked it to do, the code runs, but they kind of write really spaghetti code — code that no one wants to look at, that no one can understand, and so no company would want to use that.So there's still going to be a pretty big benchmark-to-reality gap, even for OpenAI, and I think that's one of the big uncertainties in terms of, will this happen in three years versus will this happen in 10 years, or even 15 years?Since you brought up the timeline, what's your guess? I didn't know whether to open with that question or conclude with that question — we'll stick it right in the middle of our chat.Great. Honestly, my best guess about this does change more often than I would like it to, which I think tells us, look, there's still a state of flux. This is just really something that's very hard to know about. Predicting the future is hard. My current best guess is it's about even odds that we're able to fully automate OpenAI within the next 10 years. So maybe that's a 50-50.The world with AI research automation (10:59). . . I'm talking about 30 percent growth every year. I think it gets faster than that. If you want to know how fast it eventually gets, you can think about the question of how fast can a kind of self-replicating system double itself?So then what really would be the impact of that kind of AI research automation? How would you go about quantifying that kind of acceleration? What does the world look like?Yeah, so many possibilities, but I think what strikes me is that there is a plausible world where it is just way, way faster than almost everyone is expecting it to be. So that's the world where you fully automate OpenAI, and then we get that feedback loop that I was talking about earlier where AIs make their algorithms way more efficient, now you've got way more of them, then they make their algorithms way more efficient again, now they're way smarter. Now they're thinking a hundred times faster. The feedback loop continues and maybe within six months you now have a billion superintelligent AIs running on this OpenAI data center. The combined cognitive abilities of all these AIs outstrips the whole of the United States, outstrips anything we've seen from any kind of company or entity before, and they can all potentially be put towards any goal that OpenAI wants to. And then there's, of course, the risk that OpenAI's lost control of these systems, often discussed, in which case these systems could all be working together to pursue a particular goal. And so what we're talking about here is really a huge amount of power. It's a threat to national security for any government in which this happens, potentially. It is a threat to everyone if we lose control of these systems, or if the company that develops them uses them for some kind of malicious end. And, in terms of economic impacts, I personally think that that again could happen much more quickly than people think, and we can get into that.In the first paper we mentioned, it was kind of a thought experiment, but you were really talking about moving the decimal point in GDP growth, instead of talking about two and three percent, 20 and 30 percent. Is that the kind of world we're talking about?I speak to economists a lot, and —They hate those kinds of predictions, by the way.Obviously, they think I'm crazy. Not all of them. There are economists that take it very seriously. I think it's taken more seriously than everyone else realizes. It's like it's a bit embarrassing, at the moment, to admit that you take it seriously, but there are a few really senior economists who absolutely know their stuff. They're like, “Yep, this checks out. I think that's what's going to happen.” And I've had conversation with them where they're like, “Yeah, I think this is going to happen.” But the really loud, dominant view where I think people are a little bit scared to speak out against is they're like, “Obviously this is sci-fi.”One analogy I like to give to people who are very, very confident that this is all sci-fi and it's rubbish is to imagine that we were sitting there in the year 1400, imagine we had an economics professor who'd been studying the rate of economic growth, and they've been like, “Yeah, we've always had 0.1 percent growth every single year throughout history. We've never seen anything higher.” And then there was some kind of futurist economist rogue that said, “Actually, I think that if I extrapolate the curves in this way and we get this kind of technology, maybe we could have one percent growth.” And then all the other economists laugh at them, tell them they're insane – that's what happened. In 1400, we'd never had growth that was at all fast, and then a few hundred years later, we developed industrial technology, we started that feedback loop, we were investing more and more resources in scientific progress and in physical capital, and we did see much faster growth.So I think it can be useful to try and challenge economists and say, “Okay, I know it sounds crazy, but history was crazy. This crazy thing happened where growth just got way, way faster. No one would've predicted it. You would not have predicted it.” And I think being in that mindset can encourage people to be like, “Yeah, okay. You know what? Maybe if we do get AI that's really that powerful, it can really do everything, and maybe it is possible.”But to answer your question, yeah, I'm talking about 30 percent growth every year. I think it gets faster than that. If you want to know how fast it eventually gets, you can think about the question of how fast can a kind of self-replicating system double itself? So ultimately, what the economy is going to be like is it's going to have robots and factories that are able to fully create new versions of themselves. Everything you need: the roads, the electricity, the robots, the buildings, all of that will be replicated. And so you can look at actually biology and say, do we have any examples of systems which fully replicate themselves? How long does it take? And if you look at rats, for example, they're able to double the number of rats by grabbing resources from the environment, and giving birth, and whatnot. The doubling time is about six weeks for some types of rats. So that's an example of here's a physical system — ultimately, everything's made of physics — a physical system that has some intelligence that's able to go out into the world, gather resources, replicate itself. The doubling time is six weeks.Now, who knows how long it'll take us to get to AI that's that good? But when we do, you could see the whole physical economy, maybe a part that humans aren't involved with, a whole automated city without any humans just doubling itself every few weeks. If that happens, and the amount of stuff we're able to reduce as a civilization is doubling again on the order of weeks. And, in fact, there are some animals that double faster still, in days, but that's the kind of level of craziness. Now we're talking about 1000 percent growth, at that point. We don't know how crazy it could get, but I think we should take even the really crazy possibilities, we shouldn't fully rule them out.Considering constraints (16:30)I really hope people work less. If we get this good future, and the benefits are shared between all . . . no one should work. But that doesn't stop growth . . .There's this great AI forecast chart put out by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and I think its main forecast — the one most economists would probably agree with — has a line showing AI improving GDP by maybe two tenths of a percent. And then there are two other lines: one is more or less straight up, and the other one is straight down, because in the first, AI created a utopia, and in the second, AI gets out of control and starts killing us, and whatever. So those are your three possibilities.If we stick with the optimistic case for a moment, what constraints do you see as most plausible — reduced labor supply from rising incomes, social pushback against disruption, energy limits, or something else?Briefly, the ones you've mentioned, people not working, 100 percent. I really hope people work less. If we get this good future, and the benefits are shared between all — which isn't guaranteed — if we get that, then yeah, no one should work. But that doesn't stop growth, because when AI and robots can do everything that humans do, you don't need humans in the loop anymore. That whole thing is just going and kind of self-replicating itself and making as many goods as services as we want. Sure, if you want your clothes to be knitted by a human, you're in trouble, then your consumption is stuck. Bad luck. If you're happy to consume goods and services produced by AI systems or robots, fine if no one wants to work.Pushback: I think, for me, this is the biggest one. Obviously, the economy doubling every year is very scary as a thought. Tech progress will be going much faster. Imagine if you woke up and, over the course of the year, you go from not having any telephones at all in the world, to everyone's on their smartphones and social media and all the apps. That's a transition that took decades. If that happened in a year, that would be very disconcerting.Another example is the development of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons were developed over a number of years. If that happened in a month, or two months, that could be very dangerous. There'd be much less time for different countries, different actors to figure out how they're going to handle it. So I think pushback is the strongest one that we might as a society choose, “Actually, this is insane. We're going to go slower than we could.” That requires, potentially, coordination, but I think there would be broad support for some degree of coordination there.Worries and what-ifs (19:07)If suddenly no one has any jobs, what will we want to do with ourselves? That's a very, very consequential transition for the nature of human society.I imagine you certainly talk with people who are extremely gung-ho about this prospect. What is the common response you get from people who are less enthusiastic? Do they worry about a future with no jobs? Maybe they do worry about the existential kinds of issues. What's your response to those people? And how much do you worry about those things?I think there are loads of very worrying things that we're going to be facing. One class of pushback, which I think is very common, is worries about employment. It's a source of income for all of us, employment, but also, it's a source of pride, it's a source of meaning. If suddenly no one has any jobs, what will we want to do with ourselves? That's a very, very consequential transition for the nature of human society. I think people aren't just going to be down to just do it. I think people are scared about three AI companies literally now taking all the revenues that all of humanity used to be earning. It is naturally a very scary prospect. So that's one kind of pushback, and I'm sympathetic with it.I think that there are solutions, if we find a way to tax AI systems, which isn't necessarily easy, because it's very easy to move physical assets between countries. It's a lot easier to tax labor than capital already when rich people can move their assets around. We're going to have the same problem with AI, but if we can find a way to tax it, and we maintain a good democratic country, and we can just redistribute the wealth broadly, it can be solved. So I think it's a big problem, but it is doable.Then there's the problem of some people want to stop this now because they're worried about AI killing everyone. Their literally worry is that everyone will be dead because superintelligent AI will want that to happen. I think there's a real risk there. It's definitely above one percent, in my opinion. I wouldn't go above 10 percent, myself, but I think it's very scary, and that's a great reason to slow things down. I personally don't want to stop quite yet. I think you want to stop when the AI is a bit more powerful and a bit more useful than it is today so it can kind of help us figure out what to do about all of this crazy stuff that's coming.On what side of that line is AI as an AI researcher?That's a really great question. Should we stop? I think it's very hard to stop just after you've got the AI researcher AI, because that's when it's suddenly really easy to go very, very fast. So my out-of-the-box proposal here, which is probably very flawed, would be: When we're within a few spits distance — not spitting distance, but if you did that three times, and we can see we're almost at that AI automating OpenAI — then you pause, because you're not going to accidentally then go all the way. It is actually still a little bit a fair distance away, but it's actually still, at that point, probably a very powerful AI that can really help.Then you pause and do what?Great question. So then you pause, and you use your AI systems to help you firstly solve the problem of AI alignment, make extra, double sure that every time we increase the notch of AI capabilities, the AI is still loyal to humanity, not to its own kind of secret goals.Secondly, you solve the problem of, how are we going to make sure that no one person in government or no one CEO of an AI company ensures that this whole AI army is loyal to them, personally? How are we going to ensure that everyone, the whole world gets influenced over what this AI is ultimately programmed to do? That's the second problem.And then there's just a whole host of other things: unemployment that we've talked about, competition between different countries, US and China, there's a whole host of other things that I think you want to research on, figure out, get consensus on, and then slowly ratchet up the capabilities in what is now a very safe and controlled way.What else should we be working on? What are you working on next?One problem I'm excited about is people have historically worried about AI having its own goals. We need to make it loyal to humanity. But as we've got closer, it's become increasingly obvious, “loyalty to humanity” is very vague. What specifically do you want the AI to be programmed to do? I mean, it's not programmed, it's grown, but if it were programmed, if you're writing a rule book for AI, some organizations have employee handbooks: Here's the philosophy of the organization, here's how you should behave. Imagine you're doing that for the AI, but you're going super detailed, exactly how you want your AI assistant to behave in all kinds of situations. What should that be? Essentially, what should we align the AI to? Not any individual person, probably following the law, probably loads of other things. I think basically designing what is the character of this AI system is a really exciting question, and if we get that right, maybe the AI can then help us solve all these other problems.Maybe you have no interest in science fiction, but is there any film, TV, book that you think is useful for someone in your position to be aware of, or that you find useful in any way? Just wondering.I think there's this great post called “AI 2027,” which lays out a concrete scenario for how AI could go wrong or how maybe it could go right. I would recommend that. I think that's the only thing that's coming top of mind. I often read a lot of the stuff I read is I read a lot of LessWrong, to be honest. There's a lot of stuff from there that I don't love, but a lot of new ideas, interesting content there.Any fiction?I mean, I read fiction, but honestly, I don't really love the AI fiction that I've read because often it's quite unrealistic, and so I kind of get a bit overly nitpicky about it. But I mean, yeah, there's this book called Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, which I read maybe 10 years ago, which I thought was pretty fun.On sale everywhere The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised Faster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe

Alexander Wolman discusses the Federal Reserve's recent unveiling of its revised Statement of Policy Goals, highlighting what has changed and what has remained consistent with past statements. Wolman is vice president for monetary and macroeconomic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_11_19_fed_framework_followup

Kevin talks about the beginning of he and his wife's quest for their Thanksgiving feast ingredients and covers the following stories: food inflation estimates from the beginning of the year versus the actual price increases; in addition to Walmart's announcement, last month, lowering the cost of the Thanksgiving, Target announces price reductions across the board, as well as, their Thanksgiving meal prices; the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's "nowcast" estimated present inflation levels because the Government Shutdown delayed the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics; Trump cuts tariffs certain food items; Kevin has the details, sifts through the data, put the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and a few opinions.

You're listening to American Ground Radio with Louis R. Avallone and Stephen Parr. This is the full show for November 14, 2025. 0:30 We dig into a surprising new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that challenges decades of economic dogma. For nearly a century, experts have insisted that tariffs raise prices and cripple economies—but a 150-year review of data from the U.S., UK, and France shows the opposite. We break down how tariffs can lower prices, strengthen domestic manufacturing, reduce foreign dependency, and expose the myths that fueled the rise of global competitors like China. And we look at how new trade deals and shifting economic power are reshaping American industry in real time. 9:30 Plus, we cover the Top 3 Things You Need to Know. The Prosecution against President Trump from Georgia will move forward with Peter Skandalakis as the prosecutor. California Congressman Eric Swalwell, who previously was accused of having an affair with a Chinese spy, is now accused of falsifying loans. Democrat Jared Golden of Maine announced this week he won't be seeking reelection to Congress. 12:30 Get Performlyte from Victory Nutrition International for 20% off. Go to vni.life/agr and use the promo code AGR20. 13:30 We break down the debate over H-1B visas, fraud in the system, and the growing rift inside the Republican Party over immigration and specialized labor. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s proposal to cap visas and crack down on abuse faces pushback after President Trump argues that certain specialized skills simply don’t exist in sufficient numbers here at home. We explore why most H-1B visas aren’t going to top-tier engineers, how major tech and outsourcing firms have become the biggest beneficiaries, and why national security concerns are now shaping the conversation about who should—or shouldn’t—be filling America’s most sensitive industrial and defense roles. 16:00 American Mamas Teri Netterville and Kimberly Burleson react to the backlash surrounding Sydney Sweeney’s latest film, Christie—a biopic about 1990s boxer Christy Martin—and why the movie world has turned on one of its brightest young stars. Despite keeping her politics private, Sweeney has been labeled “problematic” after reports surfaced that she’s a registered Republican. Now, after the film’s disappointing box office debut, some in the industry are blaming her for its performance.We explore the double standard in Hollywood—how major flops from firmly left-leaning stars barely make a ripple, while Sweeney’s misstep draws vitriol from actors like Ruby Rose. We also highlight Christy Martin’s heartfelt defense of Sweeney, pushing back against claims that she “ruined” the film. If you'd like to ask our American Mamas a question, go to our website, AmericanGroundRadio.com/mamas and click on the Ask the Mamas button. 22:00 We break down the economic pressures shaping young voters—and how those frustrations helped propel Zoran Mamdani to victory in New York City. We examine the growing resentment around rent, wages, and soaring personal debt, including the staggering $1.2 trillion in U.S. credit card balances. 24:30 We Dig Deep into a new Gallup report showing one of the sharpest drops in religiosity anywhere in the world—and what that means for America’s future.We break down the 17-point decline in Americans who say faith is an important part of daily life, and why the Founders believed a moral and religious people were essential to preserving freedom. We look at how this vacuum of belief is being filled—not by God, but by government. From New York City’s Zoran Mamdani declaring that no problem is too big for government to solve, to the rise of political and ideological substitutes for religion, misplaced faith in bureaucracy threatens liberty itself. 31:30 Get Prodovite Plus from Victory Nutrition International for 20% off. Go to vni.life/agr and use the promo code AGR20. 32:00 We break down a sprawling, mob-linked sports betting ring that stretched across college campuses and pulled in student-athletes. We discuss how the explosion of legalized sports gambling, combined with the massive money flowing through today’s NIL era, has created fertile ground for corruption and chaos. From point-shaving schemes to young athletes being pressured by organized crime, we look at how institutions once built on discipline and merit have drifted into moral relativism and cash-driven incentives. And as New Jersey authorities uncover a multi-million-dollar criminal pipeline tied to college programs, the warning signs are getting harder to ignore. 35:00 Plus, it's Fake News Friday! We're putting you to the test with our weekly game of headlines—are they real news, fake news, or really fake news? From TSA bonuses and collapsing bridges, to chart-topping AI-generated music, Tiktok scandals, and even Tucker Carlson's interview with Bigfoot, can you spot the fake news? Play along, keep score, and share your results with us on Facebook page: facebook.com/AmericanGroundRadio. 39:00 We take a look at the Democratic National Committee’s latest internal drama: staffers being ordered back to the office after years of remote work. Long-distance governing may have contributed to the party’s recent missteps, but they aren't too happy about returning to the office and we're saying, "Whoa." 41: And we finish off with a young man with integrity. After turning in some lost cash, he was rewarded with a job. Follow us: americangroundradio.com Facebook: facebook.com / AmericanGroundRadio Instagram: instagram.com/americangroundradio See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we cover the historic end of U.S. penny production resulting from high manufacturing costs and obsolescence. Market updates focused on lingering uncertainty due to delayed economic data from the recent government shutdown, while Federal Reserve policy remains unclear, with rate cuts seen as a toss up ahead of December's meeting. With holiday shopping well underway, we discuss consumer trends, noting resilience despite crosscurrents like tariffs and inflation, with strong performance from major retailers and signs of a “K-shaped” economy. Overall, our current outlook suggests cautious optimism for 2026, supported by fiscal and monetary tailwinds.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, Key Wealth,George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, Key WealthRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income, Key WealthBradley Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research, KeyBanc Capital Markets 00:23 –The U.S. Mint has stopped producing pennies after 232 years due to high manufacturing costs, sparking discussion on its economic implications and impact on transactions.02:03 –The recent and historic 43-day government shutdown has finally ended. We discuss its impact, and the resulting delays in critical economic reports like unemployment claims, CPI, and retail sales, and its role in creating uncertainty across markets.06:18 – We highlight uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and changes, potential December rate cuts, the lack of clarity due to missing data, and upcoming leadership turnover, including the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic's planned retirement in February and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ending in 2026.11:20 – Special guest Brad Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research with KeyBanc Capital Markets, joins the podcast this week to discuss consumer resilience amid crosscurrents such as tariffs and inflation, noting strong performance from major retailers, bifurcation between affluent and lower-income consumers, and shifts in spending patterns toward home-related goods.16:09 –Our experts examine how tariff increases could affect holiday shopping, with potential price pressures in categories like toys, and how retailers are managing these challenges.19:02 –Rising delinquencies in credit cards and loans are rising concerns for lower-income consumers, while overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic thanks to anticipated fiscal and monetary stimulus supporting spending and investment opportunities.  Additional ResourcesRead: Higher Education Changes in Recent YearsPrepare: Top 10 2025 Year-End Planning Strategies for Business Owners Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Since the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have made significant changes to their monetary policy operating frameworks. Notably, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have expanded their balance sheets, altered their reserves regimes, and adopted new tools to set their policy rates. President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary C. Daly, discusses the costs and benefits of conducting policy under different regimes. About the Speaker: As President of the San Francisco Fed, Ms. Daly serves the Twelfth Federal Reserve District in setting monetary policy. Prior to her current role, she was the executive vice president and director of research at the San Francisco Fed, which she joined in 1996. Ms. Daly has served as an advisor to the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security Administration, the Institute of Medicine and the Library of Congress. She has also been a visiting professor at Cornell University and the University of California, Davis. Ms. Daly holds a Ph.D. in economics from Syracuse University, an M.S. degree from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and a B.A. from the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Target is lowering its prices for Thanksgiving just like Walmart. This is going to be a cheap holiday for the people. Inflation has been tamed and with lowering fuel prices Trump is countering the [CB] inflation. Fed Bostic is retiring which will leave an opening for Trump, slowly but surely is gaining control over the Fed. Trump is taking back control of the economy. The [DS] tried everything to take Trump down and it has failed. The pushed the Epstein files hoax on him and he didn't take the bait, now they failed with the shutdown, so they decided they would release the hoax. They took the bait and now they have started the Epstein narrative. Attacks will intensify against Trump team, when the time is right he will strike like a thunderbolt.   Economy Target reduces prices on 3,000 groceries and essentials Target announced Tuesday it is lowering prices on 3,000 food, beverage and essential items, though prices could vary by location and online. This is the latest in a string of initiatives the retailer has rolled out to offer shoppers lower prices. The retailer also announced a $500,000 donation to Feeding America to support its hunger relief efforts amid increased demand at food banks. Lowering prices on thousands of items that shoppers frequently buy “will make a difference for families managing tight household budgets during the holidays,” Lisa Roath, chief merchandising officer of food, essentials and beauty at Target, said in the announcement. The press release noted it will not reduce prices in Alaska and Hawai'i. The price cuts build on Target's growing affordability efforts as the holiday season arrives. The retailer highlighted in the Tuesday announcement its lowest price ever for a Thanksgiving meal, which the retailer unveiled earlier this month. The meal feeds four for less than $5 per person and includes a Good & Gather turkey that costs 79 cents per pound. Source: retaildive.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Bessent, Treasurer Striking Final Penny at Philadelphia Mint Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Treasurer Brandon Beach will visit the Philadelphia Mint on Wednesday to oversee production of the final circulating one-cent coin or penny, each of which costs nearly 4 cents to produce, the Treasury Department said. President Donald Trump said in February he was ordering the Treasury to halt what he called the "wasteful" minting of pennies, prompting gas stations, fast-food chains and big-box stores to adjust prices and round cash transactions. Source: newsmax.com https://twitter.com/DoryBeutel/status/1988579974354477175?s=20 More Doves Incoming: Atlanta Fed President Bostic To Retiring Feb 2026 More turnover at the Fed ahead of what can be a historic, for the US central bank, year as Trump prepares to stack the Fed with a deep bench of uber-doves. With the "fired" Lisa Cook's lawsuit marinating at the Supreme Court, moments ago the Atlanta Fed announced that its president Raphael Bostic would retire at the end of his current term in February. Bostic, who in the press release was described as "the first African American and openly gay president of a regional Federal Reserve Bank in its 111-year histo...

In our news wrap Wednesday, President Trump is urging Israel's president to pardon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his corruption case, a former aide to California's Gov. Newsom has been indicted on charges related to an alleged scheme to steal campaign money, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is retiring and the U.S. Mint in Philadelphia pressed its last penny. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Daniel Davis talks about the importance of understanding the economies of small towns and rural areas. He also discusses the work that the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has done to examine these economies and connect with community leaders, including the recent launch of the Richmond Fed's Center for Rural Economies and Investing in Rural America webinar series. Davis is group vice president for regional economics at the Richmond Fed and director of the center. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_11_12_rural_center

On the Wednesday, Nov. 12 edition of Georgia Today: Microsoft opens a huge Atlanta data center; The president and CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta plans to retire; and Georgians prepare to see the costs of health insurance rise dramatically. 

The Shenandoah Valley is gearing up for its fourth annual Economic Summit, and this year's event promises to be more impactful than ever. In this episode of "The Valley Today," host Janet Michael talks with Kaleigh Fincham, Director of Events for the Top of Virginia Regional Chamber, and Scott Harvard, CEO of First Bank, to discuss what makes this summit a must-attend for business leaders, students, and community members alike. Bridging Local and National Perspectives From the outset, the conversation highlights the summit's unique approach: blending high-level economic analysis with on-the-ground realities. Scott, a long-time supporter and moderator of the event, explains how the summit brings together state and local leaders, ensuring that attendees receive both a macroeconomic overview and practical, region-specific insights. Notably, Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, returns as keynote speaker, offering his expertise while also listening to the unique challenges and successes of the Shenandoah Valley. Spotlight on Real-World Impact Transitioning from theory to practice, the summit features a panel of local business leaders who share firsthand experiences about navigating economic shifts. This year's panel includes voices from construction, technology, and entrepreneurship, providing a diverse look at how issues like tariffs, inflation, and workforce development play out in the Valley. Scott emphasizes that these discussions are not just academic—they directly inform how local businesses plan for the future, adapt to challenges, and seize new opportunities. Opportunities for All: Networking and Education Beyond the presentations, the summit fosters meaningful connections. Kaleigh describes the event's robust networking opportunities, from breakfast mingling to interactive Q&A sessions with speakers. High school and Shenandoah University students are especially encouraged to attend, gaining exposure to real-world economics and the chance to interact with leaders who shape the region's future. The summit's inclusive ticketing ensures that students can participate for free, reinforcing the event's commitment to education and community growth. Looking Ahead: Building a Resilient Valley As the conversation draws to a close, both guests reflect on the summit's broader significance. By bringing together diverse perspectives and encouraging open dialogue, the event helps the Shenandoah Valley stay resilient in the face of economic uncertainty. Attendees leave not only with new knowledge but also with a sense of shared purpose—ready to tackle the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Learn more - and register - here: https://www.regionalchamber.biz/the-economic-summit/ 

In our news wrap Wednesday, President Trump is urging Israel's president to pardon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his corruption case, a former aide to California's Gov. Newsom has been indicted on charges related to an alleged scheme to steal campaign money, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is retiring and the U.S. Mint in Philadelphia pressed its last penny. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Corey Thomas is the Chief Executive Officer of Rapid7, a leading global cybersecurity company based in Boston. His expertise in technology and business have been recognized through his appointments to the National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC) and the Council on Foreign Relations, as well as the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said she is focused on inflation and productivity in guiding her assessment of monetary policy and the US economy. She also warned against keeping interest rates too high for too long and discussed historical parallels between the 1970s and the 1990s. She speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa AbramowiczSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem says the US economy has been "pretty resilient" with growth roughly around potential despite recent uncertainty. Speaking with Bloomberg's Mike McKee, Musalem says the labor market is around full employment but is cooling.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are lots of frustrating elements in comedy, and we're used to them . .. things like drunks or bad set ups. But sometimes there are things that mess up your performance that you couldn't even think up! Here's a quick story about a few times things have thrown me for a loop! https://www.TheWorkLady.com  Jan McInnis is a top change management keynote speaker, comedian, and funny motivational speaker who helps organizations use humor to handle change, build resilience, and strengthen leadership skills. With her laugh-out-loud stories and practical tips, Jan shows audiences how humor isn't just entertainment—it's a business skill that drives communication, connection, and stress relief.   A conference keynote speaker, Master of Ceremonies, and comedy writer, Jan has written material for The Tonight Show with Jay Leno as well as radio, TV, and syndicated cartoon strips. She's the author of two books—Finding the Funny Fast and Convention Comedian—and her insights on humor in business have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The Huffington Post. For over 25 years, she has been helping leaders and teams discover how to bounce back from setbacks, embrace change, and connect through comedy.   Jan has delivered keynote speeches at thousands of events nationwide, from the Federal Reserve Banks to the Mayo Clinic, for industries that include healthcare, finance, government, education, women's leadership events, technology, and safety & disaster management. Her client list features respected organizations such as: Healthcare: Mayo Clinic, Kaiser Permanente, Abbott Pharmaceuticals, Health Information Management Associations, Assisted Living Associations Finance: Federal Reserve Banks, Merrill Lynch, Transamerica Insurance, BDO Accounting, American Institute of CPAs, credit unions, banking associations Government: U.S. Air Force, Social Security Administration, International Institute of Municipal Clerks, National League of Cities, public utilities, correctional associations Women's Leadership Events: Toyota Women's Conference, Go Red for Women, Speaking of Women's Health, Soroptimists, Women in Insurance & Financial Services Education: State superintendent associations, community college associations, Head Start associations, National Association of Elementary and Middle School Principals Safety & Disaster: International Association of Emergency Managers, Disney Emergency Management, Mid-Atlantic Safety Conference, risk management associations   Her background as a Washington, D.C. marketing executive gives her a unique perspective that blends business acumen with stand-up comedy. Jan was also honored with the Greater Washington Society of Association Executives "Excellence in Education" Award. Along with her podcast Finding the Funny: Leadership Tips from a Comedian, Jan also produces Comedian Stories: Tales From the Road in Under 5 Minutes. Whether she's headlining a major convention, hosting a leadership retreat, or teaching resilience at a safety conference, Jan's programs give audiences the tools to laugh, learn, and lead.  

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom, and Matt Martin share what they are hearing about economic conditions from their business contacts in the Fifth District. They also discuss variations in conditions by sector and region as well as how businesses currently view labor markets and price levels. Bauer, Haltom, and Martin are regional executives at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_11_05_what_biz_are_saying

Will Roberds is an economist emeritus of the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Steve Quinn is a professor of economics at Texas Christian University. In Will and Steve's first appearance on the show they discuss the historical significance of the Bank of Amsterdam, The use of ledger at the Bank of Amsterdam, It's use of repo and open market operations, it's connection to central banking today, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on September 23rd, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:53 - Bank of Amsterdam 00:10:31 - Bank of Amsterdam's Ledger 00:32:09 - Motivations 00:36:49 - Seven Years' War 00:40:53 - The Repo Versus the Open Market 00:56:30 - Outro

It's time to tend to tend to the garden – a little maintenance for the portfolio October does what it usually does Targets raised, analysts are trying to keep up – even if earnings miss And our guest - Danielle DiMartino Booth - the "Fed watcher" NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE'S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) As Founder & CEO of Quill Intelligence, Danielle DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence is conceived and delivered. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans to analyze the trends and provide critical analysis on what is driving the markets – both in the United States and globally. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), has a column on Bloomberg View, is a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio: she holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Follow @DiMartinoBooth Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AMZN), (GLD), (BTCUSD), (ORCL), (GOOG), (SMR), (CEG), (GEV), (AMD)

When gas prices skyrocket, do station owners get a windfall? And where do their profits really come from? Zachary Crockett pulls up to the pump. SOURCES:Garrett Golding, assistant vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Jeetander P. Sethi, founding member of the American Petroleum and Convenience Store Association.Kai Trimble-Lea, owner of a B.P. gas station in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. RESOURCES:"Top Numbers Driving America's Gasoline Demand," by Lem Smith (American Petroleum Institute, 2022)."Electric Cars Are Coming. How Long Until They Rule the Road?" by Brad Plumer, Nadja Popovich and Blacki Migliozzi (The New York Times, 2021)."Petroleum & Other Liquids," (U.S. Energy Information Administration). EXTRAS:"In the 1890s, the Best-Selling Car Was … Electric," by Freakonomics Radio (2022)."Is it Too Late for General Motors to Go Electric?" by Freakonomics Radio (2020).  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The U.S. economy is headed for financial collapse. Repo market stress. Private credit market liquidity crunch. Subprime lending crisis. Spiraling deficits. Basis trade exposure. Dollar debasement. U.S. states in recession. Oil market contango. Tariff and trade wars. Each of these are like explosive devices hiding in the corners of the economic edifice that is the U.S. economy. And the Federal Reserve just released a shocking paper that exposes the biggest potential threat of all. Explosive devices have been set all around the economy and a new bomb was just uncovered in the most unlikely of places. Chapters Intro: 00:05:21 Chapter One: The Road to Economic Hegemony. 00:06:24 Chapter Two: Collision Course. 00:30:55 Chapter Three: Hidden Bomb. 00:35:50 Chapter Four: Bring It Home, Max. 00:44:50 Resources The Lead Left: Middle Market & Private Credit – 2/10/2025 Mark Zandi on X Axios: 22 states are in a recession or close to it, new analysis finds The Fed: The Cross-Border Trail of the Treasury Basis Trade FSB: Leverage in Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Final report Morningstar: Official data dramatically underestimates hedge funds' involvement in the Treasury market, Fed paper finds Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Repo Operations Fidelity: Investor behind Zions, Western Alliance bad loans is tied to $270 million in troubled debt Car Dealership Guy: Tricolor: The messy collapse of a subprime auto lender explained Investopedia: Basis Trading: Definition, How It Works, Example The Guardian: What is private credit, and should we be worried by the collapse of US firms? OilPrice.com: Oil Market Braces for Contango and Shale Slowdown -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Surekha Carpenter and Taylor Pessin share their initial learnings about community development financial institutions that responded to the 2025 CDFI Survey, which is conducted every other year by the Federal Reserve. Carpenter is a senior research analyst and Pessin is an intermediate research analyst, both on the Regional and Community Analysis team at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_10_22_cdfi_survey

Kevin covers the following stories: tariff and trade negotiations are falling into place and the effects are coming into focus with companies looking forward with optimism; many in the media, continue to talk about the release of the of Federal Reserve minutes from their September meeting, Kevin sees contradiction from reality; former Obama Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and current Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, Austan Goolsbee, discussed on Fox Business News his "independent" view of the impact of the government shutdown, inflation and tariffs; September Class 8 Truck Sales were reported by Wards Intelligence; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, discusses the information, puts the particulars into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.

Kevin covers the following stories: tariff and trade negotiations are falling into place and the effects are coming into focus with companies looking forward with optimism; many in the media, continue to talk about the release of the of Federal Reserve minutes from their September meeting, Kevin sees contradiction from reality; former Obama Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and current Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, Austan Goolsbee, discussed on Fox Business News his "independent" view of the impact of the government shutdown, inflation and tariffs; September Class 8 Truck Sales were reported by Wards Intelligence; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, discusses the information, puts the particulars into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.

A recent data analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland shows that, in recent years, more out-of-state investors have bought up single family homes.

If I could take back agreeing to this idea, I would, because I regretted saying yes to this one. Here's a quick story about why you should stick up for yourself when someone has an idea that you don't think will work. I was too new to comedy and too naive to speak up. https://www.TheWorkLady.com  Jan McInnis is a top change management keynote speaker, comedian, and funny motivational speaker who helps organizations use humor to handle change, build resilience, and strengthen leadership skills. With her laugh-out-loud stories and practical tips, Jan shows audiences how humor isn't just entertainment—it's a business skill that drives communication, connection, and stress relief.   A conference keynote speaker, Master of Ceremonies, and comedy writer, Jan has written material for The Tonight Show with Jay Leno as well as radio, TV, and syndicated cartoon strips. She's the author of two books—Finding the Funny Fast and Convention Comedian—and her insights on humor in business have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The Huffington Post. For over 25 years, she has been helping leaders and teams discover how to bounce back from setbacks, embrace change, and connect through comedy.   Jan has delivered keynote speeches at thousands of events nationwide, from the Federal Reserve Banks to the Mayo Clinic, for industries that include healthcare, finance, government, education, women's leadership events, technology, and safety & disaster management. Her client list features respected organizations such as: Healthcare: Mayo Clinic, Kaiser Permanente, Abbott Pharmaceuticals, Health Information Management Associations, Assisted Living Associations Finance: Federal Reserve Banks, Merrill Lynch, Transamerica Insurance, BDO Accounting, American Institute of CPAs, credit unions, banking associations Government: U.S. Air Force, Social Security Administration, International Institute of Municipal Clerks, National League of Cities, public utilities, correctional associations Women's Leadership Events: Toyota Women's Conference, Go Red for Women, Speaking of Women's Health, Soroptimists, Women in Insurance & Financial Services Education: State superintendent associations, community college associations, Head Start associations, National Association of Elementary and Middle School Principals Safety & Disaster: International Association of Emergency Managers, Disney Emergency Management, Mid-Atlantic Safety Conference, risk management associations   Her background as a Washington, D.C. marketing executive gives her a unique perspective that blends business acumen with stand-up comedy. Jan was also honored with the Greater Washington Society of Association Executives “Excellence in Education” Award. Along with her podcast Finding the Funny: Leadership Tips from a Comedian, Jan also produces Comedian Stories: Tales From the Road in Under 5 Minutes. Whether she's headlining a major convention, hosting a leadership retreat, or teaching resilience at a safety conference, Jan's programs give audiences the tools to laugh, learn, and lead.  

This week, Kevin Gordon fills in for Kathy Jones. Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin discuss the recent NABE conference and the current state of the markets in light of the government shutdown and recent tariff announcements. They explore the implications for earnings season, the potential impact of AI on productivity, and the challenges facing the labor market. They also cover the importance of upcoming economic data releases and how relying on alternative data could have potential effects on market trends and monetary policy.Then, Liz Ann is joined by Patrick Harker, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Harker discusses several economic challenges facing the U.S., including the impact of the government shutdown on economic data, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the complexities of fiscal policy. He shares his thoughts on the need for better data collection and the role of private-sector data sources, while also addressing the labor market dynamics influenced by immigration policy. Harker reflects on his tenure at the Philadelphia Fed and shares insights on the importance of pragmatic policymaking.Finally, Liz Ann and Kevin take a look ahead at upcoming economic indicators and how the government shutdown could affect future data releases.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1025-WE69) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Community College Voice Podcast Season 10, Episode 7.  Dr. Kevin Walthers is the superintendent/president of Allan Hancock College in California. Using the model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's  Survey of Community College Outcomes, Dr. Walthers shared the data publicly and illustrates how it tells a more complete story about his students.    

Episode 693: In this very special episode, Neal and Toby sit down with the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee to discuss how the country's central bank is managing the data blackout from the government shutdown. Whether or not AI is actually affecting jobs for early grads or if it's just hype. Also, the importance of the Fed maintaining its independence from political influence. Then, it's an inside look into the voting process of a FOMC meeting.  Get your paper tablet at https://www.remarkable.com today Get your MBD live show tickets here! https://www.tinyurl.com/MBD-HOLIDAY  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis gathers data from the region about the current state of the economy. Megan Lynch is joined by Senior Economist Charles Gascon on a regular basis for a look at the 'Beige Book'. He says there is a distinct difference between lower and middle income earners, who are looking for deals, and high income earners who are still spending, despite inflation.

Following economic news too closely can give you feelings of whiplash and confusion, and may not speak to your personal experience. What economic information should you actually pay attention to, and how should you interpret what you hear? Former economics professor and head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, and the CEO of polling and analytics company Gallup, Jon Clifton, break down the economic indicators we come across all the time. They tease apart what's based on data and reality, what's missing, and what's hype and fluff. And how consumers react to economic news, they explain, adds yet another layer of feedback to the equation. Social media influencer and financial advisor Vivian Tu, the founder of advice brand Your Rich BFF, moderates the conversation.

Thomas Lubik discusses how inventories are tracked at the firm and aggregate levels and what fluctuations in these levels over time tell us about the health of the overall economy. Lubik is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_10_15_inventories

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a voter on the Fed's interest rate-setting committee, speaks to the FT's economics commentator Chris Giles about the outlook for the US economy amid a boom in AI investment, sluggish hiring, President Donald Trump's tariffs and continued attacks by the White House on central bank independence.Chris Giles is the FT's economics commentator. You can sign up to his newsletter here. Chris' FT interview with Austan Goolsbee is here: ‘Top Federal Reserve Official warns against a quick series of rate cuts' Join top FT journalists Chris Giles, Katie Martin, Claire Jones and special guest Lael Brainard on October 23, 1200 GMT for an exclusive subscriber webinar, Markets on edge: central banks, bonds and the risks ahead. Register now and put your questions directly to our panel. Visit ft.com/edgeSubscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen. This episode was produced by Lulu Smyth and Persis Love with original music from Breen Turner. Sound design and mix by Jean-Marc Eck. Andrew Giorgiadis is our broadcast engineer. Our executive producer is Manuela Saragosa.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Diving into the history of Morgan Stanley's first bond deal, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains the value of high-quality corporate bonds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the first bond that Morgan Stanley helped issue 90 years ago and what it might tell us about market uncertainty. It's Thursday, October 9th at 4pm in London. In times of uncertainty, it's common to turn to history. And this we think also applies to financial markets. The Great Depression began roughly 95 years ago. Of its many causes, one was that the same banks that were shepherding customer deposits were also involved in much riskier and more volatile financial market activity. And so, when the stock market crashed, falling over 40 percent in 1929, and ultimately 86 percent from a peak to a trough in 1932, unsuspecting depositors often found their banks overwhelmed by this market maelstrom. The Roosevelt administration took office in March of 1933 and set about trying to pick up the pieces. Many core aspects that we associate with modern financial life from FDIC insurance to social security to the somewhat unique American 30-year mortgage rose directly out of policies from this administration and the financial ashes of this period. There was also quite understandably, a desire to make banking safer. And so the Glass Steagall Act mandated that banks had a choice. They could either do the traditional deposit taking and lending, or they could be active in financial market trading and underwriting. In response to these new separations, Morgan Stanley was founded 90 years ago in 1935 to do the latter. It was a very uncertain time. The U.S. economy was starting to recover under President Roosevelt's New Deal policies, but unemployment was still over 17 percent. Europe's economy was struggling, and the start of the Second World War would be only four years away. The S&P Composite Equity Index, which currently sits at a level of around 6,700, was at 12. It was into this world that Morgan Stanley brought its first bond deal, a 30-year corporate bond for a AA rated U.S. utility. And so, listeners, what do you think that that sort of bond yielded all those years ago? Luckily for us, the good people at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis digitized a vast array of old financial newspapers. And so, we can see what the original bond yielded in the announcement. The first bond, Morgan Stanley helped issue with a 30-year maturity and a AA rating had a yield of just 3.55 percent. That was just 70 basis points over what a comparable U.S. treasury bond offered at the time. Anniversaries are nice to celebrate, but we think this example has some lessons for the modern day. Above anything, it's a clear data point that even in very uncertain economic times, high quality corporate bonds can trade at very low spreads – much lower than one might intuitively expect. Indeed, the extra spread over government bonds that investors required for a 30-year AA rated utility bond 90 years ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Great Depression is almost exactly the same as today. It's one more reason why we think we have to be quite judicious about turning too negative on corporate credit too early, even if the headline spreads look low. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Bethany Greene describes the flow of federal funds into Fifth District communities as transfer payments, from healthcare and Social Security benefits to unemployment insurance payments. In particular, she discusses regional variances in communities' reliance on this funding, especially those in rural areas. Greene is a regional economist at the Charlotte branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_10_08_federal_transfer_payments

Raphael Bostic is the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. In President Bostic's first appearance on the show, he discusses his love of birding, what that teaches him about central banking, the unique role of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, switching for FIT to FAIT back to FIT, what to do about inflation, the importance of globalization, rising fiscal pressures, and much more.   Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on September 23rd, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow President Raphasel Bostic on X: @RaphaelBostic Follow the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on X: @AtlantaFed Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:34 - Birding 00:06:07 - Birding's Connection to Central Banking 00:09:05 - Atlanta Fed 00:15:27 - Fed Framework Revisions 00:24:31 - Inflation 00:32:23 - Forecasted Long-Run Federal Funds Rate 00:37:43 - Globalization 00:39:13 - Fiscal Pressures 01:03:39 - Outro

Markets are having to digest a lot right now. There's the government shutdown, plus new private payroll data showing the economy lost jobs in September. Susan Schmidt, portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources, joins us to break it down. Also on the show: the FAFSA portal is open. We look at what's different with this year's federal student aid applications and how the government shutdown could impact the process. Then, Marketplace's Sabri Ben-Achour continues his conversation with Susan M. Collins, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

The slow-moving train wreck we've been watching unfold for a week, has indeed wrecked: the government officially shutdown at midnight. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be furloughed, and the Trump administration is threatening to fire others. Later in the show, Marketplace's Sabri Ben-Achour sits down with Susan M. Collins, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. They'll discuss tariffs, a cooling labor market and how the central bank is affected by a government shutdown.

Markets are having to digest a lot right now. There's the government shutdown, plus new private payroll data showing the economy lost jobs in September. Susan Schmidt, portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources, joins us to break it down. Also on the show: the FAFSA portal is open. We look at what's different with this year's federal student aid applications and how the government shutdown could impact the process. Then, Marketplace's Sabri Ben-Achour continues his conversation with Susan M. Collins, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

The slow-moving train wreck we've been watching unfold for a week, has indeed wrecked: the government officially shutdown at midnight. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be furloughed, and the Trump administration is threatening to fire others. Later in the show, Marketplace's Sabri Ben-Achour sits down with Susan M. Collins, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. They'll discuss tariffs, a cooling labor market and how the central bank is affected by a government shutdown.

Scientific Sense ® by Gill Eapen: Prof. Carmen Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. From 2020-2022 she served as Chief Economist at The World Bank Group. She was also Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund, a member of the Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Congressional Budget Office Panel of Economic Advisors.Please subscribe to this channel:https://www.youtube.com/c/ScientificSense?sub_confirmation=1

The Federal Reserve recently cut its key interest rate for the first time since December 2023. The move marked a shift in monetary policy as the central bank responds to what Fed Chair Jerome Powell described as a “really cooling off” labor market, while continuing to monitor inflation.MPR News guest host Catharine Richert and senior economics contributor Chris Farrell talk about the reasoning behind the Fed's decision and what the rate changes could eventually mean for your credit cards, mortgage, savings account or investments. Guest:Neel Kashkari is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. It's one of the Federal Reserve System's 12 regional banks with a district that includes Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.Subscribe to the MPR News with Angela Davis podcast on: Apple Podcasts, Spotify or RSS.Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.     

In this episode of Future of Work, Dr. Salvatrice Cummo speaks with Mario Cordero, Chief Executive Officer of the Port of Long Beach and former Chair of the Federal Maritime Commission. Mario shares how the Port pairs competitiveness with sustainability, why the Green Port Policy still matters twenty years on, and what it will take to move toward continuous operations across the supply chain. From tariff uncertainty to zero emission goals and major rail investments, he connects policy choices to real impacts on prices, jobs, and the communities that live next to our gateways.   You'll learn: What the Green Port Policy has achieved since 2005, including major reductions in diesel soot, NOx, and sulfur oxides, while cargo volumes grew Why the Pier B on the dock rail expansion is central to speed to market and removes hundreds of trucks from freeways with each train How tariff shifts create uncertainty for business and consumers and what steadier policy signals could mean for local jobs What a move toward 24/7 operations would require across terminals, warehouses, and labor, and why the greater cost is doing nothing Why embracing AI as a tool, not a threat, is part of building a future-ready workforce About the Guest: Mario Cordero is Chief Executive Officer of the Port of Long Beach, one of the world's leading seaports and a recognized pioneer in green port initiatives. Appointed CEO in 2017 after serving as Chairman of the Federal Maritime Commission under President Obama, he oversees a staff of more than 500 and a $761 million budget. A longtime Long Beach resident, attorney, and former Harbor Commissioner, Cordero spearheaded the landmark Green Port Policy that has become a model for ports worldwide. He has also served on the boards of the American Association of Port Authorities, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Los Angeles branch, and the L.A. County Economic Resiliency Task Force. Named to the Los Angeles Business Journal's “LA500” list of top civic leaders for seven consecutive years, Cordero continues to champion sustainability, infrastructure investment, and workforce development at one of the nation's busiest trade gateways.   Engage with us: LinkedIn, Instagram & Facebook: @PasadenaCityCollegeEWD Join our newsletter for more on this topic: ewdpulse.com Visit: PCC EWD website   More from Mario Cordero & Port of Long Beach LinkedIn: @port-of-long-beach Website: https://polb.com/ Facebook, Twitter/X, Instagram, YouTube: @portoflongbeach   Partner with us! Contact our host, Salvatrice Cummo, directly: scummo@pasadena.edu Want to be a guest on the show? Click HERE to inquire about booking  Find the transcript of this episode here Please rate us and leave us your thoughts and comments on Apple Podcasts; we'd love to hear from you!

A lot of jobs in the modern economy don't pay a living wage, and some of those jobs may be wiped out by new technologies. So what's to be done? We revisit an episode from 2016 for a potential solution. SOURCES:Erik Brynjolfsson, professor of economics at Stanford University.Evelyn Forget, professor of economics and community health sciences at the University of Manitoba.Sam Altman, C.E.O. of OpenAI.Robert Gordon, professor emeritus of economics at Northwestern University.Greger Larson, professor of archeology at the University of Oxford. RESOURCES:"Here's what a Sam Altman-backed basic income experiment found," by Megan Cerullo (CBS News, 2024).Utopia for Realists, by Rutger Bregman. The Correspondent (2016).The Second Machine Age, by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (2014)."The Town With No Poverty: Using Health Administration Data To Revisit Outcomes of a Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income Field Experiment," by Evelyn Forget (Canadian Public Policy, 2011)."The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S. Welfare Policy," by Robert Moffitt (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003).Capitalism and Freedom, by Milton Freidman (2002)."Lesson from the Income Maintenance Experiments," (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and The Brookings Institution, 1986).Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume 3: The Political Order of A Free People, by Frederick Hayek (1981)."Daniel Moynihan and President-elect Nixon: How charity didn't begin at home," by Peter Passell and Leonard Ross (New York Times, 1973)."Income Maintenance Programs," (Hearings Before The Subcommittee On Fiscal Policy Of The Joint Economic Committee Congress Of The United States, 1968). EXTRAS:"President Nixon Unveils the Family Assistance Program," (1969)."Milton Friedman interview with William F Buckley Jr.," (1968)."Martin Luther King Jr. advocates for Guaranteed Income at Stanford," (1967). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

#643: Picture this: you're at the Federal Reserve years ago. The chairman literally hangs up a conference call, waits 30 minutes, then calls back — suddenly everyone agrees on the rate decision.  That's the kind of insider story Karsten Jeske (“Big ERN”) shares when he joins us to break down what's happening with the economy right now. Karsten worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for eight years, then spent a decade on Wall Street at Bank of New York Mellon.  Today he runs the popular Early Retirement Now website, where he applies his economist background to help people understand money and markets. You'll hear Karsten explain why the Fed is about to start cutting interest rates. The futures markets are pricing in a 90 percent chance of a quarter-point cut, with more cuts likely through the end of the year.  But why? After all, inflation just ticked up in the latest CPI report, yet the Fed is still planning to lower rates. We dive into how this affects real people. If you're thinking about buying or selling a house, Karsten suggests acting sooner rather than later.  He explains the "buy the rumor, sell the news" principle – the bond market may have already priced in the good news about rate cuts, so waiting might not help you. The conversation covers some surprising economics too. Did you know that high interest rates can actually cause housing inflation?  When mortgage rates are expensive, fewer people build new homes, which drives up prices. It's the opposite of what most people think happens. Karsten walks through the recent jobs report revisions that caught everyone off guard. The government had to subtract nearly a million jobs from their previous estimates. He explains how this happens – it's not that officials are making up numbers, but tracking new businesses is genuinely hard to do in real time. You'll also learn about two Fed tools most people haven't heard of: the dot plot and R-star. The dot plot shows where Fed officials think interest rates should go over time. R-star represents the theoretical perfect interest rate when the economy has no problems — currently around 3 percent. The interview wraps up with Carsten's take on Fed culture. The consensus-building era under Greenspan is giving way to more dissenting votes, which actually makes the central bank more like it was decades ago under Paul Volcker. Enjoy! Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. (0:00) Podcast introduction and guest background Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Beef is getting more expensive, and it doesn't look as though that's going to change any time soon. That's the view of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which wrote in its Beige Book entry this month that the trend of rising beef prices continues. There's solid demand for beef, but falling supply, as production decreases. Ranchers are making more per cow, but their costs are rising. We speak with a rancher in Wyoming to learn what high beef prices mean for him and other ranchers. Related episodes: What happened to US farmers during the last trade war How USAID cuts hurt American farmers For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Keith discusses the potential takeover of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, highlighting the macroeconomic implications.  Economist, author and publisher of Macro Watch, Richard Duncan, joins the show and explains that central bank independence is crucial to prevent political influence on monetary policy, which could lead to excessive money supply and inflation.  Trump's policies, including tariffs and spending bills, are inflationary, necessitating lower interest rates.  Resources: Subscribe to Macro Watch at RichardDuncanEconomics.com and use promo code GRE for a 50% discount. Gain access to over 100 hours of macroeconomic video archives and new biweekly insights into the global economy. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/571 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the President has a plan to completely take over the Fed, a body that historically stays independent of outside influence. Learn the fascinating architecture of the planned fed seizure and how it's expected to unleash a wealth Bonanza and $1 crash with a brilliant macroeconomist today, it'll shape inflation in interest rates in the future world that you'll live in today. On get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:33   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:21   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Speaker 1  1:31   Welcome to GRE from Fairfax, Virginia to Fairfield, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. The Federal Open Market Committee is the most powerful financial institution, not only in the nation, but in the entire world, and when an outside force wants to wrestle it and take it down. The change that it could unleash is almost incredible. It's unprecedented. The President wants full control. Once he has it, he could then slash interest rates, order unlimited money creation, and even peg government bond yields wherever he wishes, and this could drive wealth to extraordinary new highs, but this also carries enormous risks for the dollar and inflation and overall financial stability. And I mean, come on now, whether you like him or not, is Trump more enamored of power than Emperor Palpatine in Star Wars or what this is fascinating. Today's guest is going to describe the architecture of the takeover the grand plan. Our guest is a proven expert on seeing what will happen next in macroeconomics. He's rather pioneering in AI as well. But today, this all has so much to do with the future of inflation and interest rates. We're going to get into the details of how, step by step, Trump plans to infiltrate and make a Fed takeover.    Keith Weinhold  3:23   I'd like to welcome back one of the more recurrent guests in GRE history, because he's one of the world's most prominent macroeconomists, and he was this show's first ever guest back in 2014 he's worked with the World Bank and as a consultant to the IMF. He's contributed a lot on CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg Television. He's a prolific author. His books have been taught at Harvard and Columbia, and more recently, he's been a guest speaker at a White House Ways and Means Committee policy dinner in DC. So people at the highest levels lean on his macroeconomic expertise. Hey, welcome back to GRE joining us from Thailand as usual. It's Richard Duncan   Richard Duncan  4:03   Keith, thank you for that very nice introduction. It's great to see you again.   Keith Weinhold  4:08   Oh, it's so good to have you back. Because you know what, Richard, what caught my attention and why I invited you back to the show earlier than usual is about something that you published on macro watch, and it's titled, Trump's conquest of the Fed will unleash a wealth Bonanza, $1 crash and state directed capitalism. I kind of think of state directed and capitalism as two different things, so there's a few bits to unpack here, and maybe the best way is to start with the importance of the separation of powers. Tell us why the Fed needs to maintain independence from any influence of the president.   Richard Duncan  4:44   Central banks have gained independence over the years because it was realized that if they didn't have independence, then they would do whatever the president or prime minister told them to do to help him get reelected, and that would tend to lead to excessive money supply. Growth and interest rates that were far too low for the economic environment, and that would create an economic boom that would help that President or politician get reelected, but then ultimately in a bust and a systemic financial sector crisis. So it's generally believed that central bank independence is much better for the economy than political control of the central bank.   Speaker 1  5:24   Otherwise we would just fall into a president's short term interests. Every president would want rates essentially at zero, and maybe this wouldn't catch up with people until the next person's in office.   Richard Duncan  5:35   That's right. He sort of wants to be Fed Chair Trump. That's right, president and Fed Chairman Trump on the horizon. It looks like won't be long, Now.   Speaker 1  5:45   that's right. In fact, even on last week's episode, I was talking about how Trump wants inflation, he won't come out and explicitly say that, of course, but when you look at the majority of his policies, they're inflationary. I mean, you've got tariffs, you've got deportations, this reshaping of the Fed that we're talking about the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending in the one big, beautiful Bill act. It is overwhelmingly inflationary.   Richard Duncan  6:12   It is inflationary. And he may want many of those things that you just mentioned, but what he doesn't want is what goes along with high rates of inflation, and that is high interest rates, right? If interest rates go up in line with inflation, as they normally do in a left to market forces, then we would have significantly higher rates of inflation. There would also be significantly higher rates of interest on the 10 year government bond yield, for instance. And that is what he does not want, because that would be extremely harmful for the economy and for asset prices, and that's why taking over the Federal Reserve is so important for him, his policies are going to be inflationary. That would tend to cause market determined interest rates to go higher, and in fact, that would also persuade the Fed that they needed to increase the short term interest rates, the federal funds rate, if we start to see a significant pickup in inflation, then, rather than cutting rates going forward, then they're more likely to start increasing the federal funds rate. And the bond investors are not going to buy 10 year government bonds at a yield of 4% if the inflation rate is 5% they're going to demand something more like a yield of 7% so that's why it's so urgent for the President Trump to take over the Fed. That's what he's in the process of doing. Once he takes over the Fed, then he can demand that they slash the federal funds rate to whatever level he desires. And even if the 10 year bond yield does begin to spike up as inflation starts to rise, then the President can instruct, can command the Fed to launch a new round of quantitative easing and buy up as many 10 year government bonds as necessary, to push up their price and to drive down their yields to very low levels, even if there is high rate of inflation.   Keith Weinhold  7:58   a president's pressure to Lower short term rates, which is what the Fed controls, could increase long term rates like you're saying, it could backfire on Trump because of more inflation expectations in the bond market.   Richard Duncan  8:12   That's right. President Trump is on record as saying he thinks that the federal funds rate is currently 4.33% he said it's 300 basis points too high. Adjusting would be 1.33% if they slash the short term interest rates like that. That would be certain to set off a very strong economic boom in the US, which would also be very certain to create very high rates of inflation, particularly since we have millions of people being deported and a labor shortage at the moment, and the unemployment rate's already very low at just 4.2% so yes, slashing short term interest rates that radically the federal funds rate that radically would be certain to drive up the 10 year government bond yield. That's why President Trump needs to gain control over the Fed so that he can make the Fed launch a new round of quantitative easing. If you create a couple of trillion dollars and start buying a couple of trillion dollars of government bonds, guess what? Their price goes up. And when the price of a bond goes up, the yield on that bond goes down, and that drives down what typically are considered market determined interest rates, but in this case, they would be fed determined interest rates Trump determined interest rates.   Speaker 1  9:28   Inflationary, inflationary, inflationary, and whenever we see massive cuts to the Fed funds rate that typically correlates with a big loss in quality of life, standard of living, and items of big concern. If we look at the last three times that rates have been cut substantially, they have been for the reasons of getting us out of the two thousand.com bubble, then getting us out of the 2000 day global financial crisis, then getting us out of covid in 2020, I mean, massive rate cuts are. Are typically a crisis response   Richard Duncan  10:02   yes, but if we look back, starting in the early 1980s interest rates have have trended down decade after decade right up until the time covid hit. In fact, the inflation rate was below the Fed's 2% inflation target most of the time between 2008 the crisis of 2008 and when covid started, the Fed was more worried about deflation than inflation during those years, and the inflation rate trended down. And so the interest rates tended to trend down as well, and we're at quite low levels. Of course, back in the early 1980s we had double digit inflation and double digit interest rates, but gradually, because of globalization, allowing the United States to buy more and more goods from other countries with ultra low wages, like China and now Vietnam and India and Bangladesh, buying goods from other countries with low wages that drove down the price of goods in the United States, causing goods disinflation, and that drove down the interest rates. That drove down the inflation rate. And because the inflation rate fell, then interest rates could fall also, and that's why the interest rates were trending down for so long, up until the time covid hit, and why they would have trended down again in the absence of this new tariff regime that President Trump has put into place. Now, this is creating a completely different economic environment. President Trump truly is trying to radically restructure the US economy. There is a plan for this. The plan was spelled out in a paper by the man who is now the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. His name is Steven Moran, and the paper was called a user's guide to restructuring the global trading system. It was published in November last year, and it very clearly spelled out almost everything President Trump has done since then in terms of economic policy. It was truly a blueprint for what he has done since then, and this paper spelled out a three step plan with two objectives. Here are the three steps. Step one was to impose very high tariffs on all of the United States trading partners. Step two was then to threaten all of our allies that we would no longer protect them militarily if they dared to retaliate against our high tariffs. And then the third step was to convene a Mar a Lago accord at which these terrified trading partners would agree to a sharp devaluation of the dollar and would also agree to put up their own trade tariffs against China in order to isolate China. And the two objectives of this policy, they were to re industrialize the United States and to stop China's economic growth so that China would be less of a military threat to the United States, which it is currently and increasingly with each passing month. So so far, steps one and two have been carried out very high tariffs on every trading partner, and also threats that if there's any retaliation, that we won't protect you militarily any longer. And also pressure on other countries to put high tariffs against China. The idea is to isolate China between behind a global tariff wall and to stop China's economic growth. So you can see that is what President Trump has been doing. And also in this paper, Stephen Marin also suggested that it would be very helpful if the Fed would cooperate to hold down 10 year government bond yield in this environment, which would naturally tend to push the bond yields higher. So that paper really did spell out what President Trump has done since then.   Keith Weinhold  13:59   This is fascinating about this paper. I didn't know about this previously, so this is all planned from tariffs to a Fed takeover.   Richard Duncan  14:08   That's right, the idea is to re industrialize the United States. That's what President Trump has been saying for years. Make America Great Again. And it's certainly true that America does need to have the industrial capacity to make steel and ships and pharmaceutical products and many other things in his own national self defense. But there's a problem with this strategy since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, and we've talked about this before, so I will do this fast forwarding a bit when the Bretton Woods system broke down up until then it broke down in 1971 before then, trade between countries had to balance. So it wasn't possible for the United States to buy extraordinarily large amounts of goods from low wage countries back then, this thing that's caused the disinflation over the last four decades, trade had to balance because on the Bretton Woods system, if we had a big trade deficit. Deficit, we had to pay for that deficit with gold. US gold, and gold was money. So if we had a big trade deficit and had to pay out all of our gold other countries to finance that deficit, we would run out of gold. Run out of money. The economy would hit a crisis, and that just couldn't continue. We'd stop buying things from other countries. So there was an automatic adjustment mechanism under the Bretton Woods System, or under the classical gold standard itself that prevented trade deficits. But once Bretton Woods broke down in 1971 It didn't take us too long to figure out that it could buy extraordinarily large amounts of things from other countries, and it didn't have to pay with gold anymore. It could just pay with US dollars, or more technically, with Treasury bonds denominated in US dollars. So the US started running massive trade deficits. The deficits went from zero to $800 billion in 2006 and now most recently, the current account deficit was $1.2 trillion last year. So the total US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $17 trillion this has created a global economic boom of unprecedented proportions and pulled hundreds of millions of people around the world out of poverty. China is a superpower now, because of its massive trade surplus with the US, completely transformed China. So the trade surplus countries in Asia all benefited. I've watched that firsthand, since I've spent most of my career living in Asia, but the United States also benefited, because by buying things from low wage countries that drove down the price of goods, that drove down inflation, that made low interest rates possible, that made it easier for the US to finance its big budget deficits at low interest rates, and so with Low interest rates, the government could spend more and stimulate the economy. Also with very low interest rates, stock prices could go higher and home prices could go higher. This created a very big economic boom in the United States as well. Not only did the trade surplus, countries benefit by selling more to the US, but the US itself benefited by this big wealth boom that has resulted from this arrangement. Now the problem with President Trump's plan to restructure the US economy is that he wants to bring this trade deficit back down essentially to zero, ideally, it seems. But if he does that, then that's going to cut off the source of credit that's been blowing this bubble ever larger year after year since the early 1980s and we have such a big global credit bubble that if this source of credit has been making the bubble inflate, the trade deficit, if that were to significantly become significantly lower, then this credit that's been blowing up, the bubble would stop, and the bubble would implode, potentially creating very severe, systemic financial sector crisis around the world on a much, probably a much larger scale than we saw in 2008 and leading to a new Great Depression. One thing to think about is the trade deficit is similar to the current account deficit. So the current account deficit is the mirror image of capital inflows into the United States. Every country's balance of payments has to balance. So last year, the US current account deficit was $1.2 trillion that threw off $1.2 trillion into the global economy benefiting the trade surplus countries. But those countries received dollars, and once they had that 1.2 trillion new dollars last year, they had to invest those dollars back into us, dollar denominated assets of one kind or another, like government bonds or like US stocks, and that's what they did. The current account deficit is the mirror image of capital inflows into the United States. Last year was $1.2 trillion of capital inflows. Now if you eliminate the current account deficit by having very high trade tariffs and bringing trade back into balance, you also eliminate the capital inflows into the United States, and if we have $1.2 trillion less money coming into the United States a year or two from now, that's going to make it much more difficult to finance the government's very large budget deficits. The budget deficits are expected to grow from something like $2 trillion now to $2.5 trillion 10 years from now, and that's assuming a lot of tariff revenue from the tariffs, budget deficit would be much larger still. So we need the capital inflows from these other countries to finance the US budget deficit, the government's budget deficit. If the trade deficit goes away, the capital inflows will go away also, and with less foreign buying of government us, government bonds, then the price of those bonds will fall and the yield on those bonds will go up. In other words, if there are fewer buyers for the bonds, the price of the bonds will go down and the yield on the bonds will go up. In other words, long term interest rates will go up, and that will be very bad for the US Economy   Speaker 2  14:08   the yields on those 10 year notes have to go up in order to attract investors. Mortgage rates and everything else are tied to those yields.   Richard Duncan  19:36   That's right. And cap rates. When people consider investing in tech stocks, they consider they'll buy fewer stocks if the interest rates are higher. So this is why it's so important for President Trump to conquer the Fed, to take over the Fed. That's what he's doing. Technically, he's very close to accomplishing that. Shall we discuss the details?   Speaker 1  20:29   Yes, we should get more into this fed takeover, just what it means for the future of real estate markets and stock markets. With Richard Duncan, more, we come back. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold   Keith Weinhold  20:41   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com. You know what's crazy?    Keith Weinhold  21:13   Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading, it's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family. 266, 866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family. 266, 866,   Dani-Lynn Robison  22:24   you is freedom family investments co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 1  22:31   Welcome back to get Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking with macroeconomist Richard Duncan about a Fed takeover. I think the President wants to be Fed Chair Trump, Richard. Talk to us more about this, because this is really part of a grand plan.   Richard Duncan  22:57   So the Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy. That means it sets the interest rates on the federal funds rate, the short term interest rates, and it also has the power to create money through quantitative easing or to destroy money through quantitative tightening. So the Fed is in charge of monetary policy. The Fed makes its decisions at its it meets eight times a year, the Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, meets eight times a year, and they take votes. They discuss what's going on in the economy. They make a decision about what they should do about interest rates, and in some cases, decisions about creating or destroying money through quantitative easing or quantitative tightening. They take a vote. The structure of the Federal Reserve System is as follows. There are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, so there are seven fed governors there. The Federal Reserve Board is in based in Washington, DC. In addition to that, there are 12 Federal Reserve banks around the country, like the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, for instance, or the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Each of these Federal Reserve Banks have a president, so there are 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents now at the FOMC meetings where interest rates are decided, all seven fed governors get a vote, but only five Federal Reserve Bank presidents get to vote, and they rotate their votes every year they the following year are different. Five fed presidents get to vote. The Federal Reserve Bank president of New York always gets the vote because New York is such an important financial center, but the other four other presidents keep rotating year after year, and the presidents, 12 presidents, serve five year terms, and they can be reappointed, and their terms expire all at the same time, all on the same day, all of their terms will expire next year on February 28 and they will perhaps be reappointed and perhaps. Be reappointed. So that's the structure, seven Federal Reserve Bank governors and 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. All the governors. All seven get to vote at every FOMC meeting, but only five of the Presidents get to vote. So that's a total of 12. The Governors of the Federal Reserve System are the most important the seven. Those seven include the Chairman, Chairman Powell, and this is why they're the most important. They're important because if four of the seven have the power to fire all of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents, if four fed governors vote together, they can fire all 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. It only takes four. Only takes four. Then those Federal Reserve Bank presidents would have to be replaced, but the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has to approve the replacements. So if President Trump has four fed governors who will do what he tells them to do, then they can fire all the Federal Reserve Bank presidents and only replace them with other people who will do what President Trump tells them to do. Gosh. So what this means is, if the president can get four Federal Reserve Bank governors out of seven, then he has absolute control over monetary policy. He can do anything he wants with interest rates. He can do anything he wants with quantitative easing. So how many does he have now? Well, he has two that he's appointed, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. They voted to cut interest rates at the last FOMC meeting. That was a dissenting vote, because the rest of the voting members voted to hold interest rates steady. Those two have already voted with the President, so they're on Team Trump, and they're going to stay on Team Trump, because both of them would like to become Fed Chairman when Jerome Powell term expires in May next year, very suddenly and very unexpectedly. A month or so ago, another fed Governor resigned. Her name is Adriana Coogler. Her term was not due to expire for another six months, and she'd not given any indication that she was going to resign early, but she did this now gives the President can nominate the Federal Reserve Bank governors. So he is nominated Stephen Moran, the one who wrote the paper the grand plan. Grand plan. He's nominated him to replace Adriana Coogler, yeah, and he's going to vote on him on his appointment, perhaps within very soon, and it only takes 51 senators to vote him in. And since the Republicans control the Senate, he will be approved, it seems very likely that he will be approved, and that will give President Trump the third vote on the FOMC. He will have three out of the seven governors. He only needs one more, and this is where at least the cook comes in. So on the 26th of August, I think President Trump announced that he was firing Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, because she allegedly had made misleading statements on some mortgage applications that have not been proven yet, that they are alleged. So he says that he has fired her. She has said he does not have the right to fire her. The legal cases that the President does have the right to fire a Federal Reserve Bank Governor, but only for cause. And so there's a real question whether this qualifies as being for cause or not, especially since it's only alleged at this point, but assuming that he does get control. So if he does succeed in firing her, he will be able to appoint her replacement, and that will give him four members, four governors out of the seven. And as we just discussed, with four out of seven, he will have complete control over monetary policy, because with four out of seven, that would give him the power to command those four to vote to fire all 12 presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then to appoint new presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks who would vote along with whatever President Trump tells them to vote for. So in that case, with four fed governors, he would have those Four Plus he would have the five presidents that he would appoint from the Federal Reserve Banks voting for him. So five plus four, that is nine, nine out of 12 voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee. He would be guaranteed nine out of 12 votes on the FOMC, and that would give him complete control over monetary policy, and that's what he needs, because his policies are inflationary. They're going to drive up inflation. They're and that's going to push up the 10 year government bond yield, and it would normally make the Fed also increase the federal funds rate, because higher inflation should the Fed in. Increase the interest rates to cool down the higher inflation. But now that's not going to happen, because he is going to take over the FOMC one way or the other. Just by firing Lisa Cook, he's sending a very clear message to all the other fed governors and to the 12 existing Federal Reserve Bank presidents, you do what I tell you or you may be investigated too. You're next, one way or the other, the President is going to get what the President wants, and what he wants is control over monetary policy, and what that means is much lower short term interest rates and probably another very big round of quantitative easing to hold down long term interest rates as well.   Keith Weinhold  30:41   That was an amazing architecture and plan that you laid out for how a President can take over the Federal Open Market Committee. That was amazing to think about that, and what we believe he wants you talked about it is potentially quantitative easing, which is a genteel way of saying dollar printing. Is it lowering the Fed funds rate down to, I think 1% is what he desired, and we're currently at about 4.3%   Richard Duncan  31:08   that's right. He said he'd like to see the federal funds rate 300 basis points lower, which would put 1.3% we could see a series of very sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meetings, so we could see the short term interest rates falling very quickly, but as we discussed a little bit earlier, that would alarm the bond market and investors, because they would realize that much lower interest rates would lead to much higher rates of inflation by overstimulating the economy. And so the 10 year bond yields will move higher for fear of inflation, and that will then force President Trump to command the Fed, to create money through quantitative easing on a potentially trillion dollar scale, and start buying up government bonds to push up their price and drive down their yields, so that the 10 year bond yields and the 30 year bond yields will fall. And since mortgage rates are pegged to the government bond yields mortgage rates will fall, and credit card rates will fall, and bank lending rates will fall, and this will kick off an extraordinary economic boom in the US, and also drive asset prices very much higher and create a wealth Bonanza,   Keith Weinhold  32:15   right? And here, Richard and I are talking interestingly, just two days before the next Fed decision is rendered, therefore, with eminent cuts, we could very well see soaring stock and real estate markets fueled by this cheap credit and this quantitative easing, at least in the shorter term.   Richard Duncan  32:36   But timing is something one must always keep in mind, there is a danger that we could actually see a sell off in the stock market in the near term. If we start seeing the Fed slashing interest rates, then the 10 year bond yields will start moving higher. That would ultimately lead to quantitative easing to drive those yields back down. But when the falling short term interest rates start pushing up interest rates on the 10 year government bond yield because investors expect higher rates of inflation, that could spook the stock market. The stock market's very expensive, so before QE kicks in, there could actually be a period where raising expectations for higher rates of inflation drive the 10 year bond yields higher before the Fed can step in and drive them back down again. We could actually see a sell off in the stock market before we get this wealth boom that will ultimately result when the Fed cuts the short term rates and then quantitative easing also drives down the long term rates. I hope that's not too confusing. There could be a intermediate phase, where bond yields move higher, and that causes the stock market to have a significant stumble. But that wouldn't last long, because then President Trump would command the Fed to do quantitative easing, and as soon as the president says on television that he's going to do quantitative easing, between the moment he says quantitative and the moment he says easing, the stock market is going to rocket higher.   Keith Weinhold  34:05   And here we are at a time where many feel the stock market is overvalued. Mortgage rates have been elevated, but they're actually still a little below their historic norms. The rate of inflation hasn't been down at the Fed's 2% target in years, it's been above them, and we've got signs that the labor market is softening.   Richard Duncan  34:25   That's true. The labor market numbers in the most recent job number were quite disappointing, with the revisions to earlier months significantly lower. But of course, with so many people being deported from the United States now, that's contributing to this lower job growth numbers. If you have fewer people, there are fewer people to hire and add to job creation, so that may have some distorting impact on the low job creation numbers. The economy actually is seems to be relatively strong the the. Latest GDP now forecast that the Atlanta Fed does is suggesting that the economy could grow by three and a half percent this quarter, which is very strong. So the economy is not falling off a cliff by any means. If the scenario plays out, as I've discussed, and ultimately we do get another round of quantitative easing and the Fed cuts short term interest rates very aggressively. That will create a very big economic boom with interest rates very low. That will push up real estate prices, stock prices and gold prices and Bitcoin prices and the price of everything except $1 the dollar will crash because currency values are determined by interest rate differentials. Right now, the 10 year government bond yield is higher than the bond yields in Europe or Japan, and if you suddenly cut the US interest rates by 100 basis points, 200 basis points, 300 basis points, and the bond yields go down very sharply, then it'll be much less attractive for anyone to hold dollars relative to other currencies, and so there will be a big sell off of the dollar. And also, if you create another big round of quantitative easing and create trillions of dollars that way, then the more money you create, the less value the dollar has supply and demand. If you have trillions of extra new dollars, then the value of the dollar loses value. So the dollar is likely to take a significant tumble from here against other currencies and against hard assets. Gold, for instance, that's why we've seen such an extraordinary surge in gold prices.   Speaker 1  36:38   right? Gold prices soared above three $500 and Richard I'm just saying what I'm thinking. It's remarkable that Trump continues to be surrounded by sycophants that just act obsequiously toward him and want to stay in line and do whatever he says. And I haven't seen anyone breaking that pattern.   Richard Duncan  36:59   I'm not going to comment on that observation, but what I would like to say is that if this scenario does play out, and it does seem that we're moving in that direction, then this big economic boom is very likely to ultimately lead to the big economic bust. Every big boom leads to a big bust, right? Big credit booms lower interest rates, much more borrowing by households, individuals, companies. It would while the borrowing is going on, the consumption grows and the investment grows, but sooner or later, it hits the point where even with very low interest rates, the consumers wouldn't be able to repay their loans, like we saw in 2008 businesses wouldn't be able to repay their loans, and they would begin defaulting, as they did in 2008 and at that point, everything goes into reverse, and the banks begin to fail when they don't receive their loan repayments. And it leads to a systemic financial sector crisis. The banks lend less when credit starts to contract, then the economy collapses into a very serious recession, or even worse, unless the government intervenes again. So big boom that will last for a few years, followed by a big bust. That's the most probable outcome, but I do see one other possibility of how that outcome could be avoided, on the optimistic side, and this is it. If once President Trump slash Fed Chairman Trump has complete control over US monetary policy, then it won't take him long to realize Stephen Moran has probably already told him that he would then be able to use the Fed to fund his us, sovereign wealth fund. You will remember, back in February, President Trump signed an executive order creating a US sovereign wealth fund. And this was music to my ears, because for years, as you well know, I've been advocating for the US government to finance a multi trillion dollar 10 year investment in the industries and technologies of the future   Keith Weinhold  39:01   including on this show, you laid that out for us a few years ago and made your case for that here, and then Trump made it happen.   Richard Duncan  39:08   Let's try my book from 2022 it was called the money revolution. How to finance the next American century? Well, how to finance the next American Century is to have the US, government finance, a very large investment in new industries and new technologies in things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotechnology, genetic engineering, biotech, robotics, clean energy and fusion, create fusion and everything, world where energy is free, ultimate abundance. So I was very happy that President Trump created this US sovereign wealth fund. Now that he will soon have complete control over his US monetary policy, he will understand that he can use the Fed to fund this, US sovereign wealth fund. He can have the Fed create money through quantitative easing and. And start investing in fusion. We can speed up the creation of the invention of low cost fusion. We could do that in a relatively small number of years, instead of perhaps a decade or longer, as things are going now, we could ensure that the United States wins the AI arms race that we are in with China. Whoever develops super intelligence first is probably going to conquer the world. We know what the world looks like when the United States is the sole superpower. We've been living in that world for 80 years. Yeah, we don't know what the world would look like if it's conquered by China. And China is the control super intelligence and becomes magnitudes greater in terms of their capacity across everything imaginable than the United States is whoever wins the AI arms race will rule the world. This sort of investment through a US sovereign wealth fund would ensure that the winner is the US and on atop it, so it would shore up US national security and large scale investments in these new technologies would also turbocharge US economic growth and hopefully allow us to avoid the bust that is likely to ultimately occur following The approaching boom, and keep the economy growing long into the future, rather than just having a short term boom and bust, a large scale investment in the industries of the future could create a technological revolution that would generate very rapid growth in productivity, very rapid economic growth, shore up US national security, and result in technological miracles and medical breakthroughs, possibly curing all the diseases, cure cancer, cure Alzheimer's, extend life expectancy by decades, healthy life expectancy. So that is a very optimistic outcome that could result from President Trump becoming Fed Chairman Trump and gaining complete control over monetary policy. And this is all part of the plan of making America great again. If he really followed through on this, then he certainly would be able to restructure the US economy, re industrialize it, create a technological revolution that ensured us supremacy for the next century. That's how to finance the next American century.   Speaker 1  42:23   Oh, well, Richard, I like what you're leaving us with here. You're giving us some light, and you're talking about real productivity gains that really drives an economy and progress and an increased standard of living over the long term. But yes, in the nearer term, this fed takeover, there could be some pain and a whole lot of questions in getting there. Richard, your macro watch piece that caught my attention is so interesting to a lot of people. How can more people learn about that and connect with you and the great work you do on macro watch, which is your video newsletter   Richard Duncan  43:00   Thanks, Keith. So it's really been completely obvious that President Trump was very likely to try to take over the Fed. Nine months ago, I made a macro watch video in December called Will Trump in the Fed, spelling out various ways he could take over the Fed, and why he probably would find it necessary to do so. So what macro watch is is it describes how the economy really works in the 21st Century. It doesn't work the way it did when gold was money. We're in a completely different environment now, where the government is directing the economy and the Fed, or seeing the President has the power to create limitless amounts of money, and this changes the way everything works, and so that's what macro watch explains. It's a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to impact asset prices, stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and wealth in general. So if your listeners are interested, I'd encourage them to visit my website, which is Richard Duncan economics.com that's Richard Duncan economics.com and if they'd like to subscribe, hit the subscribe button. And for I'd like to offer them a 50% subscription discount. If they use the discount coupon code, G, R, E, thank you, GRE, they can subscribe at half price. I think they'll find that very affordable. And they will get a new video every couple of weeks from me, and they will have immediate access to the macro watch archives, which have more than 100 hours of videos. Macro watch was founded by me 12 years ago, and I intend to keep doing this, hopefully far into the future. So I hope your listeners will check that out.   Keith Weinhold  44:46   Well, thanks, both here on the show and on macro watch Richard gives you the type of insight that's hard to find anywhere else, and you learn it through him oftentimes before it makes the headlines down the road. So. Richard, this whole concept of a Fed takeover is just unprecedented, as far as I know, and it's been so interesting to talk about it. Thanks for coming back onto the show.   Richard Duncan  45:08   Thank you, Keith. I look forward to the next time.   Speaker 1  45:17   Yeah, fascinating stuff from Richard in the nearer term, we could then see interest rate cuts that would go along with cuts to mortgages and credit card rates and car loan rates and all kinds of bank lending rates. This could pump up the value of real estate, stocks, Bitcoin, gold, nearly everything a wealth bonanza. Now, in polls, most Americans think that the Fed should stay independent from outside control. You really heard about how the President is dismantling the safeguards that protect that fed independence, the strategy he's using to bend the Federal Open Market Committee to His will. And this is not speculation, because, as you can tell, the takeover of the Fed is already underway. A fed governor has been fired. New loyalists are being installed, and key votes are lining up in the President's favor. But as far as the longer term, you've got to ask yourself, if these policies will inflate a giant bubble destined to burst down the road. I mean triggering a crisis as bad as 2008 I mean, these are the very questions that every investor should be asking right now, if you find this in similar content fascinating, and you want to stay on top of what is forward looking what's coming next macroeconomically, check out Richard Duncan's macro watch at Richard Duncan economics.com for our listeners, he's long offered the discount code for a 50% discount that code is GRE, that's Richard Duncan economics.com and the discount code GRE next week here on the show, we're bringing it back closer to home with key us, real estate investing strategies and insights, a lot of ways to increase your income. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit you Daydream.   Speaker 3  47:20   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Speaker 1  47:40   You You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text gre to 66866,   Keith Weinhold  48:59   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com you.  

Today, we're pulling back the curtain on one of the most powerful institutions in the global economy: the Federal Reserve. The Fed's meeting later this month isn't the only reason the central bank is in the headlines. Between President Trump's push to oust both the BLS Commissioner and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and his mounting public pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, all eyes are on the Fed like never before. In this special joint episode of Money Rehab and Mo News, Nicole and Mosh are joined by Austan Goolsbee, FOMC member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.  Goolsbee shares what it's like to be in historic Fed meetings, breaks down the balancing act between inflation and interest rates, and weighs in on the critical role of the Fed's independence. They also dig into whether the data that guides these billion-dollar decisions is still up to snuff in 2025, and what interest rates might actually look like in the months ahead. If you want to know where interest rates—and the economy—are headed, this is the episode to take to the bank. Subscribe to Mo News Follow Austan Goolsbee's work This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC.  *APY as of 6/30/25, offered by Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Rate subject to change. See terms of IRA Match Program here: public.com/disclosures/ira-match.