Podcasts about july fomc

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the U.S. Leading Indicators, nonfarm payrolls, existing home sales, the Jackson Hole Symposium, the July FOMC meeting minutes, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCindy Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income 02:19 - The US Leading Indicators released by The Conference Board showed the month of July was down and that was followed by a decline in June, as well02:45 – The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the Nonfarm Payroll report for the prior year by roughly 818,000 less 03:09 – Existing home sales grew 1.3% in July, halting the four-month sales decline which began in March03:46 – The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, spoke at the Jackson Hole Symposium just hours ago04:53 – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the meeting minutes from July's meeting. The overall theme observed was wide support for a September rate cut as the inflation risk has diminished and the risks to the labor market have increased06:38 – During Fed Chair Powell's press conference this morning, he addressed changing the direction of monetary policy as inflation has eased, the job market is not overheated, and the global supply chain has normalized. However, for rate cuts, the Fed will depend on incoming data08:33 – Fed Chair Powell seemed to have balanced and neutralized comments at his press conference this morning in regards to cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, but only if the data is encouraging 15:07 - Based on previous economic strategy, it seems that the Fed typically cuts rate by 25 basis points before it loosens or tightens its policies to not incite panic in the market. Even so, is the Fed too late to the game? 20:50 – Final comments highlighting the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, September 4th at 1:00pm EST. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

S&P futures are indicating a flat open today. Asian markets finished Thursday trading mixed, and European equity markets are extending recent rallies in early trades. For today's highlight, The July FOMC minutes highlighted increased employment risks and indicated that a majority of participants consider a September rate-cut likely appropriate. The minutes reaffirmed that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, though it remains somewhat elevated. While some officials supported a 25 basis point cut in July, the consensus leaned towards a September adjustment. Following BLS payroll revisions, markets increased odds of a 50 basis point hike in September.Companies Mentioned: Paramount Global, Telefonica, Halliburton

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today ahead of the annual payrolls benchmark revision and the July FOMC minutes. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading broadly lower, and European equity markets are higher in early trades. For today's highlight, China tech shares declined as the Hang Seng Tech index fell (1.9%). JD.com saw a (9%) drop after reports that Walmart sold its stake in the company, raising $3.6B at an 11% discount. Analysts suggest the sale affects sentiment across the tech sector, with local investment insufficient for a substantial recovery. Kuaishou Technology fell nearly (10%) due to disappointing ad revenue, while Vipshop Holdings dropped (18%) on falling sales and a weak outlook. Alibaba and Tencent's recent results did not ease concerns over the consumer environment.Companies Mentioned: JD.com, Walmart, Hyatt Hotels, Arch Resources

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending just off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 14bps, 42bps, and 57bps respectively. The BLS annual payrolls benchmark revision came in at -818K, largest negative revision since the Great Financial Crisis. July FOMC minutes flagged heightened risks to employment and noted majority of participants believe September cut likely appropriate. Markets raised odds of a 50 bp cut in September by ~10 bp to 39%.

Patricia Zobel, Head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy, updates our outlook following the strong market response to the July FOMC decision and jobs report. She also draws from her experience with the Fed's System Open Market Account, one of its most critical operating functions, to share insights on the Fed's balance sheet management.Related Content:3Q24 High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookRelatively low distress ratios suggest manageable default rates down the road. High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookHigher Quality Fixed Income is ‘the Place to Be'Anne Walsh, CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins Bloomberg TV to discuss her outlook for credit markets during a period of political instability. Watch Video2Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what's next.Read Quarterly Macro ThemesInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.SP 62173

US equities ended lower this week after putting in a mixed performance last week. This week saw sentiment move decidedly negative with a focus on growth and recession concerns amid a stream of weak employment and manufacturing data punctuated by Friday's nonfarm payrolls miss and spike in unemployment. The July FOMC decision left rates unchanged as broadly expected with no explicit indication of a September rate cut (though seems to be a forgone conclusion now).

This week we discuss the labor markets and the July FOMC meeting.

The unemployment rate will surprise the Fed, rising to 4.5% at the end of this year, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to unpack the July FOMC meeting. The pair discuss Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish tilt at the meeting's Q&A, and what that means for likely rate-policy outcomes. They also the examine potential implications of possible fiscal-policy changes to inflation, trade policy and real-economic activity.

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on the outcome of the July FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO's positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Will the Fed signal interest rate cuts with the July FOMC meeting? That's the question on everybody's mind. But interest rates are really a sideshow in this Fed drama. The real action is on the Fed balance sheet. In this episode of the Money Metals' Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey explains what's going on with the balance sheet, why it matters, and what it tells us about the likely trajectory of price inflation and the economy. He also touches on a new milestone for the national debt.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, goes over the macro-olympiad of events from central banks to key data releases and concludes by saying that this week could set the tone for the balance of the summer for markets. In terms of the July FOMC meeting, we believe the Fed will need to converge with market expectations in regards to rate cuts. A dovish July FOMC would be consistent with the last 6 prior FOMCs, where rates rally. If that happens it should bring the curve even closer to dis-inverting before they actually cut rates in September. In the meanwhile, there is a lot of time until the September FOMC meeting, where the next focus will NFP, CPI and Jackson Hole in August.

Original Release on August, 1st 2023: While the U.S. economy appears on track to avoid a recession, investors should still consider the implications of an upcoming wave of maturities in corporate credit.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I will be talking about potential risk to the economy. It's Tuesday, August 1st at 10 a.m. in New York. Another FOMC meeting came and went. To nobody's surprise the Fed hiked the target Fed funds rate by 25 basis points. Beyond the hike, the July FOMC statement had nearly no changes. While data on inflation and jobs are moving in the right direction, the Fed remains far from its 2% inflation goal. That said, Fed Chair Powell stressed that the Fed is closer to its destination, that monetary policies is in restrictive territory and is likely to stay there for some time. Broadly, the outcome of the market was in line with our economists expectation that the federal funds rate has peaked, will remain unchanged for an extended period, and the first 25 basis point cut will be delivered in March 2024. Powell sounded more confident in a soft landing, citing the gradual adjustment in the labor market and noting that despite 525 basis point policy tightening, the unemployment rate remains at the same level it was pre-COVID. The fact that the Fed has been able to bring inflation down without a meaningful rise in unemployment, he described as quote unquote "blessing". He noted that the Fed staff are no longer forecasting a recession, given the resilience in the economy. This specter of soft landing, meaning a recession is not imminent, is something our economists have been calling for some time. This has now become more broadly accepted across market participants, albeit somewhat reluctantly. The obvious question, therefore, is what are the risks ahead and what are the paths for such risks to materialize? One such potential risk emanates from the rising wave of credit maturities from the corporate credit markets. While company balance sheets, by and large, are in a good shape now, given how far interest rates have risen and how quickly they have done so, as that debt begins to mature and needs to be refinanced, it will happen at sharply higher rates. From now through the end of 2024, almost a trillion of corporate debt will mature. Sim ply by holding rates constant, that refinancing will represent a tightening of financial conditions. Fortunately, a high proportion of the debt comes from investment grade borrowers and does not appear to be particularly challenging. However, below investment grade debt has a tougher path ahead for refinancing. As we continue through 2024 and get into 2025, more and more high yield bonds and leveraged loans will need to be refinanced. All else equal, the default rates in high yield bonds and leveraged loans currently hovering around 2.5% may double to over 5% in the next 12 months. The forecasts of our economists point to a further slowdown in the economy from here, as the rest of the standard lags of policy are felt. We continue to think that such a slowing could necessitate a re-examination of the lower end of the credit spectrum. The ongoing challenges in the regional banking sector only add to this problem. In our view, in the list of risks to the U.S. economy, the rising wave of maturities in the corporate debt markets is notable. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down for a third-straight week. The big story this week was the ongoing backup in yields, with the 10Y yield hitting 4.33% this week, the highest since 2007, while 10Y TIPS yields hit the highest since 2009. There wasn't much new from this week's July FOMC meeting minutes, which contained no hints at future policy actions, though officials warned of significant upside risk to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy.

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on latest market and economic activity. Topics include a deeper dive into the Retail/Consumer sector, a review of July FOMC Meeting Minutes and a forecast on the Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium taking place next week.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer Stephen Hoedt, CMT, Managing Director, Equity & Fixed Income ResearchRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income 01:02 – This week's market and economic activity (retail sales, industrial production, leading economic indicators)02:00 – Observations on the Consumer sector, with specific comments on the retailers, student loan payments 07:10 – Predictions on the Fed's reaction to accelerating inflation and economic growth; Forecast on the Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 15:08 - Comments on the potential corrections in the markets16:50 – Closing remarks for investorsAdditional Resources:Key Questions: My Child is Off to College! How Can I Maintain Decision-Making Access? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

While the U.S. economy appears on track to avoid a recession, investors should still consider the implications of an upcoming wave of maturities in corporate credit.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I will be talking about potential risk to the economy. It's Tuesday, August 1st at 10 a.m. in New York. Another FOMC meeting came and went. To nobody's surprise the Fed hiked the target Fed funds rate by 25 basis points. Beyond the hike, the July FOMC statement had nearly no changes. While data on inflation and jobs are moving in the right direction, the Fed remains far from its 2% inflation goal. That said, Fed Chair Powell stressed that the Fed is closer to its destination, that monetary policies is in restrictive territory and is likely to stay there for some time. Broadly, the outcome of the market was in line with our economists expectation that the federal funds rate has peaked, will remain unchanged for an extended period, and the first 25 basis point cut will be delivered in March 2024. Powell sounded more confident in a soft landing, citing the gradual adjustment in the labor market and noting that despite 525 basis point policy tightening, the unemployment rate remains at the same level it was pre-COVID. The fact that the Fed has been able to bring inflation down without a meaningful rise in unemployment, he described as quote unquote "blessing". He noted that the Fed staff are no longer forecasting a recession, given the resilience in the economy. This specter of soft landing, meaning a recession is not imminent, is something our economists have been calling for some time. This has now become more broadly accepted across market participants, albeit somewhat reluctantly. The obvious question, therefore, is what are the risks ahead and what are the paths for such risks to materialize? One such potential risk emanates from the rising wave of credit maturities from the corporate credit markets. While company balance sheets, by and large, are in a good shape now, given how far interest rates have risen and how quickly they have done so, as that debt begins to mature and needs to be refinanced, it will happen at sharply higher rates. From now through the end of 2024, almost a trillion of corporate debt will mature. Sim ply by holding rates constant, that refinancing will represent a tightening of financial conditions. Fortunately, a high proportion of the debt comes from investment grade borrowers and does not appear to be particularly challenging. However, below investment grade debt has a tougher path ahead for refinancing. As we continue through 2024 and get into 2025, more and more high yield bonds and leveraged loans will need to be refinanced. All else equal, the default rates in high yield bonds and leveraged loans currently hovering around 2.5% may double to over 5% in the next 12 months. The forecasts of our economists point to a further slowdown in the economy from here, as the rest of the standard lags of policy are felt. We continue to think that such a slowing could necessitate a re-examination of the lower end of the credit spectrum. The ongoing challenges in the regional banking sector only add to this problem. In our view, in the list of risks to the U.S. economy, the rising wave of maturities in the corporate debt markets is notable. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This episode of Unusual Whales Pod was recorded live on July 26, 2023 before the FOMC Rate hike of 25bps and subsequent press conference with Jerome Powell.Our hosts are joined by top macro experts to discuss the Fed Rate Hike of 25 BPS, the U.S. Banking and Bonds, Market Volatility, and the Inflationary and Recessionary Outlook for the second half of 2023.Panel:Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Cem Karsan https://twitter.com/jam_croissant Thelastbearstanding https://twitter.com/LastBearStandngRandy Woordward: https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakMichael Kao: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboyHosted by: Nicholas FNS: https://twitter.com/NicholasFNS Unusual Whales: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesDiscord: https://discord.com/invite/unusualwhalesFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/unusualwhalesInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/unusualwhales/Reddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@unusual_whalesTwitter: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesTwitch: https://www.twitch.tv/unusualwhalesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/unusualwhales/**Disclaimer:Any content referenced in the video or on Unusual Whales are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation. You can lose some or all of your investment. See terms for more information.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, expects the Fed to deliver one more hike of 25bps at the upcoming July FOMC meeting. The FOMC statement should not see major tweaks at this time of the year, largely given that it's a July meeting that sits between Jackson Hole and the September FOMC meeting updates (and also because the June FOMC meeting saw the Fed upgrade its forecasts on growth, inflation and rates).   In order for the Fed to keep all options open and avoid hinting that this may be their last hike they need to keep forward guidance in place by keeping this phrase largely unchanged “In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate.”  As George has mentioned before, until chair Powell strikes out the inflation concerns from the opening remarks in the presser, they are focused more on fighting inflation versus being overly concerned about the trajectory for growth. The presser is what ultimately determines how markets read chair Powell's tone if this July hike was a dovish, neutral, or hawkish hike. We are leaning on the neutral to hawkish side.

US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P 500 rising for the fourth week in five, though the Nasdaq was modestly lower. There were a number of moving pieces this week. Several high-profile earnings disappointments (NFLX, TSLA) added scrutiny around big tech valuations and the high bar following outsized YTD gains. Overbought conditions and extended sentiment, along with fading short covering tailwinds, were also part of the bearish narrative. However, there was also some optimism around a broadening of the market rally, more disinflation/soft landing evidence, positive earnings/guidance revisions, and liquidity fears which continue to fade. Next week is busy with the July FOMC meeting and plenty of big earnings reports and macro data points.

APAC stocks traded mostly higher after the positive lead from Wall St where yields continued to decline post-PPI.Fed's Waller (voter) said the Fed will likely need two more 25bps hikes this year and he favours raising rates at the July FOMC.European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed up by 0.7% yesterday.DXY remains on a 99 handle, EUR/USD and Cable gain a firmer footing above 1.12 and 1.31 respectively.Looking ahead, highlights include US Import & Export Prices, UoM Sentiment (Prelim), Swedish CPI, US Treasury Dealer Meeting Agenda, Earnings from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock & Citigroup.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Newly released Fed-created financial conditions index (FCI-G) shows conditions as tighter than picked up by traditional FCIs (like Bloomberg's or Goldman's), notes Liz Ann Sonders. She discusses how futures are lower as weakness in overseas markets weigh on indices. She talks about how sector and index members above 50-DMA. She highlights that there is a high likelihood that Fed raising 25bps at July FOMC meeting (88% probability per CME); but any further hikes will be data dependent. She also goes over how sentiment, for the most part, has moved into excessive optimism territory. Based on history, it can stay there for a while; but frothiness leaves market vulnerable if a negative catalyst appears. She then previews today's upcoming economic data which includes JOLTs, PMI Composite Final, and ISM Services. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

US futures are pointing to a lower open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened with small losses, following lower levels in Asia. July FOMC minutes expected to mirror Powell's recent hawkish-leaning comments hinting at two further rate hikes in 2023. Fed Fund Futures currently pricing in 89% chance of a hike this month but only 32% chance of a second hike in September.Companies Mentioned: Thermo Fisher Scientific

US equities closed mixed overnight after some choppiness and heavy trading volume in the afternoon following the FOMC meeting. The Dow fell 233 points (-0.68%), weighed down by United Health. Dow at worst down 429 points. S&P 500 flat, up 0.08%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.39%. Long-dated US treasuries fell, 10Y and 30Y yields slipped 4.9bps and 6.4bps. USD Index off 0.38%, and Walls Streets fear gauge the VIX fell 5.0%. European markets finished up, with the STOXX 50 +0.7%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC +0.5%, and DAX +0.5%.The Fed Hits PauseAfter ten consecutive rate hikes over the year, the Fed has officially hit “pause”. The Fed announced it will be leaving the benchmark federal funds rate at 5-5.25%, its highest level since 2007. The Fed's new projections show policymakers at the median see the fund's rate rising to a 5.5-5.75% range by the end of the year (another two hikes). Policymakers anticipate a 100 basis points of rate cuts next year, alongside fast-falling inflation. Futures markets are already pricing in 64.5% chance rates rise by 25bps at the July FOMC meeting.US Producer Price Inflation fell 0.3% MoM in May following April's 0.2% rise, significantly exceeding forecasts for a 0.1% fall.Chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom are both up more than 4%, closing at highest levels ever.Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.5%, bringing its YTD gain to 48%.United Health down 6.4%, after the company announced its costs were on the rise due to an increase in surgeries among older adults. Wiping out ~US$29bn in market capitalisation.Gold steadied as the Fed signalled more rate hikes ahead.Copper gained 0.46% on expectations of Chinese growth.WTI crude dropped 1.69%, and Brent lost 0.89% as US inventories surged ahead of expectations.Zinc rose 4.35% overnight as Boliden suspended operations at a major Zinc mine in Ireland.Nickel +3.5%, Aluminium +0.83%, Lead +1.73%, Tin +2.6%.Bitcoin fell 2.9% overnight.10-year yield: US 3.79%, Australia 3.96%, and Germany 2.46%.Shell PLC rose 1.2% overnight after announcing it will hold oil output steady, grow gas and LNG business and increase dividends.EU regulators may order Google to sell part of its adtech business to address anti-competitive practices, potentially facing a fine of up to 10% of its annual global turnover.Catch up on all the latest with Henry Jennings on today's Pre-Market Podcast.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

After Powell pulled a 180 from his July FOMC in order to stop “transitory” inflation, markets have fallen sharply. Now there are hints of trouble for the central bankers ahead. Where the heck do we go in October? Host Craig Hemke sits down with legendary natural resource investor Rick Rule to break down all the gold and silver news you need. You can check out all our bullion products here: www.sprottmoney.com/bullion Got questions for our experts? Send them to submissions@sprottmoney.com.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks' New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks' London Digital Asset Summit (sale ends Sunday): https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole. Jack welcomes former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Michael “Mish” Shedlock, economic blogger and investment advisor, to analyze the twin threats of inflation and recession, and the challenges investors and the Federal Reserve face as they try to navigate both. Shedlock argues that the economy is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve will likely overtighten which could “kill” the stock market. Wang argues that the risk is that the Federal Reserve is too loose, and notes that an excerpt from the July FOMC minutes which Wang saw as “cowardly” caused Wang to be more open to the view that Powell will cave to dovish political pressure. In his own words, “this is the Fed of Arthur Burns.” NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole. -- Follow Mish Shedlock on Twitter https://twitter.com/MishGEA Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wang's work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Mish Shedlock's writings can be found here: https://mishtalk.com/ Mish's article on housing: https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-crash-accelerates-sales-down-12-6-percent-in-july July FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220727.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Are We In A Recession Already? (05:48) Housing (15:00) Stagflation (19:58)The Stock Market (21:12) The Wang Pivot (29:27) The Commercial Banking System (35:16) Asset Allocation (36:51) Gold (39:53) The Pension Crisis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

US equity futures are indicating a lower open as of 05:00 ET. European equity markets are mixed, following mostly lower markets in Asia. Central Bank actions continue to remain a key focus following the July FOMC minutes, with other developments including doubts about a dovish pivot for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of England rate forecasts dialed up aggressively after another surge in UK CPI. Companies Mentioned: Amazon

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq down 50 basis points, 72 basis points, and 125 basis points respectively. Treasuries were weaker across the curve. No one specific factor behind today's pullback though there continue to be thoughts that recent strength is nothing more than a bear market bounce driven by depressed positioning. Today's big event was the release of the July FOMC minutes, which showed committee members saw a risk the Fed could tighten more than necessary. Retail gave back some of yesterday's big gains on mixed earnings takeaways.

Equity markets continued to rally on CPI inflation data, sensing a peak to interest rates. This week the July FOMC meeting minutes will shed light on the US Federal Reserve's thinking, while retail sales data should indicate the health of the US consumer. Seamus Lyons CFA, Senior Investment Manager and Alex Burn CFA, Senior Investment Analyst spoke to Lorna Denny, Investment Specialist. This podcast is intended for investment professionals, and must not be shared with a non-professional audience. This podcast is for information purposes only and is intended to broaden listeners' awareness of financial markets and no part of the materials should be construed to represent financial advice or an offer to buy, sell or otherwise participate in any investment activity or strategy. The content is based on information sources that are deemed reliable at the time of recording. Architas has no express or implied warranty, guarantee or statement as to the accuracy, suitability or completeness of the information provided. All rights are reserved. Without the prior consent of the copyright holder, no part of this podcast in any form or by any means is allowed to be published, copied or emailed or stored in an information system. These materials originate from Architas Limited ("Architas").Architas is a company registered in England No. 02638607, registered office: 20 Gracechurch Street, London, EC3V 0BG United Kingdom. These materials are not intended for audiences in the United States of America.

Speakers:George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, KeyBank Investment CenterStephen Hoedt, CMT, Managing Director, Equity & Fixed Income Research, KeyBank Investment Center Cynthia Honcharenko, Senior Portfolio Manager – Taxable Fixed Income, KeyBank Investment Center Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, KeyBank Investment Center Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income, KeyBank Investment Center 01:06 – Review of key economic data 02:00 – Observations from the FOMC meeting 05:17 – Outlook on consumer spending and the labor market 08:06 – Is the peak over in terms of Fed tightening?    14:39 – Second quarter 2022 earnings insights   Additional Resources: Investment Brief  

Judith Raneri, senior portfolio manager of the Gabelli US Treasury MMF, discusses the Federal Reserve's recent actions at their July FOMC meeting. She goes over the impact on the overall bond market and where this leaves the Fed in their fight against inflation.

This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best in class data to look at market positioning around a potential Fed pivot. With a strong rally in risk assets following the July FOMC meeting, the market seems to be pricing slower growth – and potentially lower inflation – which could lead an increasingly data dependant Fed to curtail its rate hikes. But, as more recent rhetoric from policymakers has downplayed recession fears and reiterated the need to get inflation under control, could the rally provide an opportunity for the central bank to assert its hawkish bias? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After the July FOMC meeting, markets took a quick dive and then made an immediate recovery, so what happened?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about global macro trends and how investors can interpret these trends for rates and currency markets. It's Wednesday, August 3rd, at 1 p.m. in New York. In the weeks since the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, rates and currency markets have made quite the round trip. Treasury yields from 2 out to10 year maturities fell by over 25 basis points in the three days that followed the meeting. And the U.S. dollar index declined by 2% over the same period. However, looking at these markets today, as I sit here recording this podcast, it's almost as if the July FOMC meeting didn't happen. 10 year Treasury yields are about where they were going into the meeting last week, and 2 year yields are a bit higher even. As for the U.S. dollar index, it's back to the range it was in ahead of the meeting. So what happened? Going into the meeting, investors thought that the Fed would deliver a 75 basis point rate hike, but recognized that there was a tail risk of a larger 100 basis point hike. And even if the tail risk didn't materialize, investors had acknowledged that the additional 25 basis points might be delivered in September instead. And that would make for the third 75 basis point hike in this cycle. In short, investors were positioned for a hawkish outcome. The FOMC statement and Chair Powell's prepared remarks didn't disappoint. The message was on par with what FOMC participants had been saying over recent weeks and months. Inflation is still top of mind, and more work is needed to bring it down to acceptable levels. If the meeting ended with Powell's prepared remarks, rates and currencies would have likely taken a different path to where they trade today. However, the meeting didn't end there, and the Q&A session of Powell's press conference struck a more dovish tone. Three messages contributed to this interpretation. First, Powell suggested that rates had achieved a neutral setting, or one that neither puts upward nor downward pressure on economic activity relative to its potential. Second, he said that because a neutral policy setting had been reached, the pace of subsequent rate hikes could soon begin to slow. And finally, he suggested that the committee's view of the peak policy rate in the cycle hadn't changed since the last FOMC meeting, even though inflation data since then continued to surprise on the higher side. The reason for this seemed to be focused on the deterioration in activity data or growth data. In many ways, investors should have expected these statements from Powell, given guidance coming from the June summary of economic projections. In addition, because Fed policy had tightened financial conditions this year, and those financial conditions helped slow economic growth, the case for a less hawkish performance might have been predictable. The data that arrived in the wake of the meeting underscored the recent themes of slower growth and higher inflation. But the Fedspeak that arrived in the wake of the data, well, it continued to focus on inflation, as it had done before the Fed met in July. Where does all of that leave the Fed on policy and us on markets? Well, the Fed's job bringing inflation down hasn't yet been accomplished, the bond market is pricing less policy tightening than the Fed is last guided towards, and downside risks to global growth are rising. As a result, we remain neutral on bond market duration, but remain bullish on the U.S. dollar, particularly against the euro. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people find the show.

In this episode of Bank Statements we take a closer look at the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with FHLBank Topeka's Director of Investments and Balance Sheet Strategy, Steven Townsend and Portfolio Manager, Sarah Harp.Listen as Sarah and Steven discuss notes from the meeting and reactions from market and Fed governors since the meeting's conclusion.

Tom Graff is the head of investments for Facet Wealth and has several decades leading fixed income departments. Tom joins David on Macro Musings to provide his thoughts on the recent FOMC meeting, the Q2 2022 GDP numbers and their implications for the economy, and the future path of Fed policy. Specifically, David and Tom discuss the recent GDP numbers from Q2 2022, the merits of public concerns over a recession, takeaways from the July FOMC meeting, interest rate theory and implicit forecasts of inflation, the fiscal theory of the price level, the continued importance of the Fed's framework, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Tom's Twitter: @tdgraff Tom's Facet Wealth profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   Real GDP Numbers updated for Q2 2022   Federal Open Market Committee: July 26-27, 2022 FOMC Meeting

In this video I talk about:· US Q2 GDP growth and July FOMC meeting· Why is the market up?· Is bear market ending?· Are utility tokens securities?· What Web3 can do that Web2 cannotAnd more.Related article: 35 Web3 Business Ideas to Disrupt Traditional Industrieshttps://taschalabs.com/35-web3-business-ideas-to-disrupt-traditional-industries/Join my free newsletter: https://taschalabs.com/newsletter/ Subscribe to Tascha Labs Podcast | Crypto Investment through Macro Lens | Web3 | Blockchain on Soundwise

J.P. Morgan Chief US Economist Mike Feroli joins interest rate strategists Jay Barry and Alex Roever to discuss take-aways from the July FOMC meeting, the outlook for policy rates, impact on the treasury curve, and outlook for Treasury's August refunding.   Speakers Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research Jay Barry, US Fixed Income Strategy   This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/resehttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159127-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159401-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4160963-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their reactions to the July FOMC meeting including the risk-on response and Chair Powell's suggestion that the Fed would offer less clear guidance going forward. Other topics include the implications for credit and what might drive spreads in the near-term.

In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on his latest views. George believes that market participants are in a tug-of-war on the inflation versus recession debate and are hoping that central banks will start to pivot their focus to recession risks versus inflation. Even if that is what will ultimately happen, George feels that it's too soon for that to be the prevailing theme because the Fed is only now getting toward neutral levels of rates. Listen to the podcast to hear George's base case for the upcoming July FOMC with expectations of one more 75bp hike in rates with chair Powell delivering a neutral message. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Yeng Butler, head of investment solutions and the Liquidity Client Group, moderates a discussion on the upcoming July FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, ways that investors can approach their short duration assets, and how recent economic data releases have changed the track record of Fed (Federal Reserve) guidance. Joining her is Jeff Weaver, senior portfolio manager and head of Global Liquidity Solutions, and Laurie White, senior portfolio manager for Prime and Government Money Market Funds. Podcast length – 13:19, Disclosure length – 1:41. Allspring Global Investments is the trade name for the asset management firms of Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC, a holding company indirectly owned by certain portfolio companies of GTCR LLC and Reverence Capital Partners, L.P. These firms include but are not limited to Allspring Global Investments, LLC, and Allspring Funds Management, LLC. Certain products managed by Allspring entities are distributed by Allspring Funds Distributor, LLC (a broker-dealer and Member FINRA/SIPC).This material is for general informational and educational purposes only and is NOT intended to provide investment advice or a recommendation of any kind—including a recommendation for any specific investment, strategy, or plan. PAR-0722-00607

Yeng Butler, head of investment solutions and the Liquidity Client Group, moderates a discussion on the upcoming July FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, ways that investors can approach their short duration assets, and how recent economic data releases have changed the track record of Fed (Federal Reserve) guidance. Joining her is Jeff Weaver, senior portfolio manager and head of Global Liquidity Solutions, and Laurie White, senior portfolio manager for Prime and Government Money Market Funds. Podcast length – 13:19, Disclosure length – 1:41. Allspring Global Investments is the trade name for the asset management firms of Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC, a holding company indirectly owned by certain portfolio companies of GTCR LLC and Reverence Capital Partners, L.P. These firms include but are not limited to Allspring Global Investments, LLC, and Allspring Funds Management, LLC. Certain products managed by Allspring entities are distributed by Allspring Funds Distributor, LLC (a broker-dealer and Member FINRA/SIPC).This material is for general informational and educational purposes only and is NOT intended to provide investment advice or a recommendation of any kind—including a recommendation for any specific investment, strategy, or plan. PAR-0722-00607

What type of rate hike are we going to see at next week's July FOMC meeting? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan weighs in on the buzz around recession talk and what the yield curve could look like in the near term. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Equity markets pulled back more than 1%to start the week as traders and investors brace for the peak of earnings season. There are 73 S&P 500 companies reporting this week including 7 Dow components so the impact on the market could be tremendous. The general expectation is for earnings to beat the consensus but by the smallest margin in years and for the guidance to be weak, a trend that will weigh on the market moving forward. In regard to the outlook for earnings, the outlook for Q2 results ticked up a hair over the past week but consensus estimates for Q3, Q4, the full year 2022, and full year 2023 are all moving lower. On the economic front, the next big hurdle for the market is the July FOMC meeting. The meeting isn't for two more weeks, however, but it comes before the next read on inflation. After the latest CPI and PPI data, the market should be ready for a 100 basis point rate hike or at least the indication a 100 bps hike is on the way. Between then and now, the most important data point on the calendar is the Index of Leading Indicators and we expect to see a third consecutive month of negative growth.

US equities were modestly lower on the week, though off the worst mid-week levels that followed the hotter-than-expected June CPI print. The hot print led the market to price in a 90% chance of a 100 bp hike at the July FOMC meeting, but this fell below 30% by Friday as Fed officials favored 75 bp in their comments. Despite the (backward-looking) CPI report, there were more hopes that inflation may be peaking. Banks highlighted the first week of earnings season. Next week, we'll get some more key economic data ahead of the July 26-27 FOMC meeting.

Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss how markets are reacting to world events, highlights from the Alberta Budget, the Spotify “car-thing” and whether they’ll be able to start tracking conversions for audio advertisers after their latest acquisition. Plus a Canadian startup who started pivoted from helping refugees settle into new regions to increasing employee engagement in internal events raises a $3.5m USD seed round.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉This Market feels more like 2012 than 2022… Especially when you look at the names that are attractive.Rising rates, geopolitical stress, inflation. All reasons for recent market volatility. But the reality is, this is normal. Over the past 4 decades, the average intra-year stock drawdown was 14%. And yet, in 80% of those years, the calendar return was positive.Year over Year Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets Uranium Miners $URNM +204% Gas Expl $FCG +180% Coal Miners $ARCH +166% Agriculture $MOS +100% Oil Exp $XOP +135% Copper, Steel $XME +74% vs. Nasdaq 100 NDX +22% Bonds $ZROZ -15% Bonds $TLT -11%The main indexes tested and even went below their January lows, only to stage a major bounce towards the end of the week, last week. Given the sentiment and economic backdrop, it’s probably just an oversold bounce within a continued bear market. And yet, it’s still anyone’s guess to how long it’ll last. The S&P 500 testing its declining 20-day moving average or even 450 is not out of a question here.Metals stocks have been notably the strongest sector, probably due to war-related sanctions. XME is at 10-year highs. Steel, aluminum, copper stocks are busting loose.Oil stocks are also holding well and are setting up for potential breakouts - GUSH, ERX, AR, DVN, TRGP, FANG, MUR, SU, etc.It’s good to see stocks outside of the commodity space starting to break out and set up nicely on shorter time horizons… see SEAS, LNPH, DOCS, etc.It’s still a headline-driven choppy market that is capable of gapping up or down 2% on any given day. This environment requires one to be nimble, open-minded, and willing to trade both sides of the market.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekCharlie Bilello Had a fantastic post this weekend filled with charts.I've pulled out the Russia-centric parts of his post attached at the bottom.The Russian Ruble has completely crashed. Since its peak in 2008, the Ruble has now lost 73% of its value against the US Dollar.The Russian equity ETF ($RSX) debuted in April 2007 and has been twice as volatile as the S&P 500 since then.Have investors been rewarded for this additional risk?Not exactly.The Russia ETF ($RSX) is down 38% since inception versus a 295% gain for the S&P 500 ($SPY ETF).While Russian stocks were crashing, US stocks initially sold off in sympathy, hitting a new correction low near the open on February 24th.At -14.6% and 51 days, this was the largest drawdown for the S&P 500 since February/March 2020 and the longest since 2018.But the declines on the 24th didn’t last, as the S&P 500 rose 4.2% from its low to finish the day in positive territory. This was one of the largest intra-day rallies for the S&P 500 in history, and it occurred exactly one month after a similar rally (+4.4% on January 24).Rate Hikes:The volatility in the markets has not dampened the expectations of the market for rate hikes very much at all.While a 50 basis point (bps) initial move is now seen as a low probability event, Fed Funds Futures are still anticipating 25 bps hikes at the March, May, June, and July FOMC meetings with 6 hikes in total by year-end (to a range of 1.50%-1.75%).Why are investors expecting rate hikes in spite of the weakness in the financial markets?The glaring disconnect between Fed policy and inflation.We received more data on that front this week with the PCE Price Index showing a 6.1% increase over the last year, the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. This compares to a historical average of 3.25% inflation since 1960.Meanwhile, the Fed Funds Rate remains close to 0% versus its average over the same time period of 4.8%.Lest the Fed loses all their remaining credibility, the rate hikes are coming.https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/7-chart-sunday-2-27-22What Russian Sanctions Mean For Europe and The World“Now that the question of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has proven itself not to be a hypothetical, Western governments will be pushed to respond.The United States and its European allies are likely to pursue a sanctions campaign, but this is easier said than done. While it has been popular to deride Russia and its economy as a "gas station" masquerading as a country, the reality is that Russia is a significant--often the largest--exporter of several critical commodities. Russian exports directly feed and fuel (or enable the processes to do so) vast swathes of the world from South America to the Middle East and East Asia--in addition to lighting and heating European homes and supplying crude oil to US Gulf Coast refineries.For the latter scenario, Russian crude exports to the world's largest oil producer picked up significantly in 2021 as a result of US sanctions against Venezuela, illustrating the double-edged nature of sanctions in the globalized economy.The Ukraine War: Energy EditionThe ins and outs of the major oil and natural gas suppliers is a favorite topic of ours here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, and it forms a cornerstone of our expertise; my team and I have decades of combined experience on the issues facing global energy. Crack open any of my books and you'll see that oil and gas are usually the topic of the longest chapters. My second book, The Absent Superpower, chronicles the many outcomes of the American shale revolution. Most notable: an America able to divorce itself from the wider world, and a major regional war in which Russia invades…Ukraine.Now we are gearing up for the release of our newest project - The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new book breaks down the future shape of various economic sectors in a post-globalized world: finance, manufacturing, agriculture. Energy The rapidly-building Ukraine War obviates nothing in the new book (thankfully), but it certainly focuses the mind on the burning questions of the day. How badly will the war impact the world’s second-largest energy exporter? Which consuming markets will be most (and least) impacted? How will those markets adapt to the sudden loss of Russian exports? How long will those losses last?🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊EPOCHAPP.COM - Founded in Kitchener, Ontario. Epoch is the employee experience platform that drives engagement in your learning programs, DEI and ERG initiatives, AMAs, All Hands and internal events. Raises $3.6m USD from Rally Ventures (feb 23rd). 🔮Best Links of The Week🔮YouTube adds another TikTok feature: live ringsThe Netherlands has fined Apple five times over app store paymentsEA CEO explains why company may ditch FIFA branding in leaked staff commentsInventing Anna Sets Surprising Netflix Record As It Remains #1 In The Top 10iPhone average selling price up 14% as iPhone 13 drives record revenue This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the false breakout in yields into the Treasury auctions last week, characterizing them as just another supply concession setup. Given that the rates market failed to continue its rise up in rates, George remains neutral until we hear from the Fed.   In terms of the Fed, George goes over what to potentially expect from two key events ahead. First off are the minutes from the July FOMC meeting, where everyone will be combing through to see if there are any specifics as related to taper updates. And then towards the end of August markets will hone in on any new monetary policy developments and updates at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. With recent Fed speakers increasingly sounding hawkish (as if trying to talk up rates) these events will drive markets. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xca1On  - Today we look unpack the modest changes to the July FOMC monetary policy statement last night that elicited a fleeting sell-off in US treasuries and boost to the USD before that move was reversed. We also ask whether there were more interesting takeaways from the Fed Chair Powell press conference than the market reaction seemed to suggest. Finally we assess the market reaction to last night's meeting and what we are looking for from here, particularly as some of Fed Chair Powell's comments on inflation and incoming data could mean a highly reactive market around coming Fed speakers and labor-market data. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and is hosted by John J. Hardy. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gives us his latest thoughts on the bond market and what to expect from the upcoming July FOMC meeting, and what may lie ahead as we enter the remaining weeks of the summer. George believes that the Fed has an opportunity to deliver a positive message on current economic conditions while remaining balanced on the risks that still exist from COVID-19 to inflation concerns. The Fed could also push back on the direr read that is being projected by the bond market, with long-term rates low while curves too flat, by staying on track to eventually deliver taper news. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)