Podcasts about torsten slok

Unlimited CEO Bob Elliott and The Kobeissi Letter Editor-In-Chief Adam Kobeissi break down the market week, focusing on how tech and macro crosscurrents are shaping sentiment. Melius Research's Ben Reitzes on Apple, Nvidia, and if cracks forming in the AI trade. Apollo's Torsten Slok lays out the macro setup heading into the next jobs report and Fed decisions. Defense also gets a spotlight with Aerovironment CEO Wahid Nawabi on the impact of a major budget deal. GoDaddy CEO Aman Bhutani on the company's latest results and why the stock is falling. Mercer's Olaolu Aganga offers a CIO-level view of market dynamics—and three worries her clients are flagging. 

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, talks about the US economic outlook following extreme market gyrations from President Trump’s tariff reversal. He is joined by Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok discusses the impact of DOGE layoffs on the labor market, and the effects of tariffs on the consumer. He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first Special Briefing of 2025 offers a deep dive into the new President's first month and the implications of new policies. Featured speakers include former US Representative Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA); Jeffrey Holland, Vice President, Research, Peter G. Peterson Foundation; Eric Kim, Senior Director, U.S. Public Finance at Fitch Ratings; Vikram Rai, Fixed Income Strategist, Head of Municipal Markets Strategy at Wells Fargo; Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo; and Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Economics. Notable Quotes: “The implications from a macro perspective could become very, very important for interest rates, especially, of course, if the layoffs begin to show up in the form of a high unemployment rate.” - Torsten Slok. “State and local governments really need to take this moment to do an assessment of how the federal government, federal spending and federal tax policy, even the economic impacts, will affect their budget." - Carolyn Bourdeaux. “So why does that matter? Well, high and rising debts crowd out savings and investment, which could lower future output and income relative to what would otherwise occur." - Jeffrey Holland “Midwestern state economies could be particularly vulnerable to the imposition of blanket tariffs on imports from [Canada, Mexico, and China], and natural resource-rich states could face the most direct consequences from retaliatory tariffs by those nations. North Dakota, Louisiana, and Texas are the states with the most in exports to Canada, Mexico, and China as a percentage of their state GDP.” - Eric Kim “State and local governments realize that they have to rely on their own sources to meet their projects and financing needs." - Vikram Rai “The risks are decidedly to higher interest rates. The biggest risk is that we see a major sell-off in the bond market. The bond market feels incredibly fragile.” - Mark Zandi Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

It might be the most important hour of earnings season: Meta, Microsoft and Tesla all report their latest numbers — and set the tone for what comes next in the market. Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and our Michael Santoli kicks things off before we hear from the companies. Key earnings on deck include Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, IBM, and ServiceNow, with exclusive CEO commentary from Jon. Dan Ives of Wedbush joins to break down Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla results. Later, Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson offers deeper analysis on the tech giants' earnings.The Fed kept rates steady and Cecilia Rouse, President of the Brookings Institution, and Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, providing crucial insight on what investors need to know from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's latest.Jon shares exclusive sound from VF Corp. CEO Bracken Darrel on the company's turnaround efforts and Morgan checks in on the transports with an exclusive interview with Norfolk Southern CEO Mark George. 

Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange 2024 reflections, and 2025 expectations - spanning market returns, monetary policy, and the macro environment for the US, and around the world. We also spend time addressing investment themes, and allocation preferences as we head into a new year. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Major policy shifts in immigration, taxes, trade, energy, health care, and pandemic-era programs passed under the Biden Administration look increasingly likely with Donald Trump capturing the White House and his fellow Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress for the first time in two years. Our panel of experts share their views on what this sea change may mean for the economy and Federal Reserve, as well as the impact on states, localities, and the $4 trillion municipal bond market, including the possible elimination of the federal tax exemption on most muni bond interest. Our panel of experts includes Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management; Annie Linskey, Wall Street Journal White House Reporter; Former US Representative Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA); Eric Kazatsky, Head of Municipal Strategy, Bloomberg LP; and Teryn Zmuda, Chief Research Officer and Chief Economist, National Association of Counties (NACo). Notable Quotes: “The short version of what's happening is that the economy is doing really well. GDP growth for the last two and a half years has continued to surprise from the upside. The big issue in financial markets and policymaking continues to be why did Fed hikes not slow the economy down more, why was GDP growth in the third quarter 2.8, and why is GDP growth in the fourth quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed, going to be 3.3.” - Torsten Slok “The primary program that they (the White House) are working on which impacts states and localities is getting money out of the door for the CHIPS Act. It was a $39 billion program, about $30 billion of that is tied up right now in complicated negotiations between the government and companies, and so the Biden administration is working very hard right now to get those negotiations finished.” - Annie Linskey “This brings me to the DOGE effort, and you have Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy out there pounding their chests about how they are going to make all these dramatic cuts. Well, most of us who have been around the block on budgeting know that it's really easy to do this in the abstract, but it is very hard to do it when you are actually putting programs on the line.” - Carolyn Bourdeaux “When we're thinking about the effects of any administration and talking about policy changes, cost cuts could really be cost shifts. Sometimes programs are cut but you do have to think how the effect of that is carried out throughout communities.” - Teryn Zmuda “Right now, state and local payrolls are at the highest levels they've been ever. We've had a 3% growth since the great financial crisis, and 2% growth since 2019. So, as efficiencies have come into the job market, technology has been embraced even by state and local governments, and payrolls has continued to expand.” - Eric Kazatsky Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The Dow closed above 44,000 and the S&P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time as stocks extend their bullish run since the election. Bespoke's Paul Hickey and Envestnet's Dana D'Auria break down what could be ahead through year-end. Apollo Global's Torsten Slok on the Fed's next move. Insulet CEO Jim Hollingshead on the company seeing strong demand for its insulin pump. IAC CEO Joey Levin on the company's decision to explore spinning off its ownership in Angi—and what he might do with the cash. 

Apollo Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok discusses Friday's job numbers and the labor market with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok discusses Fed Day and outlook. Slok speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks closed at session highs after a dramatic intraday turnaround, led by tech and chips. Goldman's Eric Sheridan on what's next for internet stocks and key takeaways from Communacopia conference. SHVO Ceo Michael Shvo on the journey behind reopening San Francisco's Transamerica pyramid. Apllo's Torsten Slok on the Fed. Sunnova CEO John Berger on the debate's impact on solar stocks.  

Apollo's Torsten Slok react to the August jobs report that came in below analyst estimates and what it means for Fed policy and the overall economy. He spoke with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern, and Michael McKeeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Fed is largely expected to keep rates steady at its meeting today. Apollo's Torsten Slok and Wall Street Journal's Gunjan Banerji preview the decision. Plus, shares of Microsoft are lower after the company reported its first miss on cloud revenue since 2022. Bernstein's Mark Moerdler explains. And, Starbucks shares are popping despite a decline in same-store sales. Wedbush's Nick Setyan digs into the results.

Apollo Management Partner Chief Economist Torsten Slok discusses what he expects from Jerome Powell with Bloomberg's Matt Miller and Katie Greifeld.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nasdaq and S&P 500 set record closes; Unlimited Funds' Bob Elliott breaks down the market action. Apollo Global Chief Economist is still saying the Fed won't cut rates in 2024. He makes his case. Neuberger Berman's John San Marco on his top retail picks and consolidation in the sector. Guggenheim analyst Ron Jewiskow on why he's still bearish despite Tesla's major runup in July so far. 

Apollo Management's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, says that  “Fed will spend most of 2024 fighting inflation,” and will not cut rates. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeny.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Torsten rejoins Jason in the studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Western and southern states including Idaho and Florida were among those growing the fastest from the eve of the pandemic in 2019 through 2022. But there were some surprises as well, with Delaware, Maine, and New Jersey also joining the Census Bureau's hot growth list. While the ability of many Americans to move to low-tax states and work from home played a large role in the population shift, other factors may have been at play as well. Meanwhile, rapid population expansion poses challenges in many of these states as they cope with enlarging school systems, updating infrastructure, and preparing communities for the impact of extreme weather conditions. Our expert panel explores these issues and what they may portend for state and local finances. Our panel of experts includes New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy; Alex Adams, chief budget officer, state of Idaho; Shatakshee Dhongde, professor of economics, Georgia Institute of Technology; Thomas Doe, president, Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.; and Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management. Notable Quotes: “I use two words: talent and location. Historically, when New Jersey invested aggressively in talent and location, it did well –– and when it didn't –– it did poorly. It's really not a political ideology, it's playing the hand that you were dealt.” - Governor Phil Murphy “But the big picture is: tax revenue is still good, and we still have a good economy… with the little caveat that the cost of borrowing will remain elevated, probably for another six-to-nine months.” - Torsten Slok “A lot of [why we're growing] is that we are a low-regulated state. This is the least regulated state in the country, we're also a low taxation state… we're stable financially, and then there's all those intangible benefits and tangible benefits as we have access to outdoor recreation, beautiful lakes, mountains, access to skiing –– things that were really rejuvenating for many people during COVID.” - Alex Adams “We talk a lot about pensions, but here in Texas, there are also going to be increased costs because of the changing climate, whether it's the electricity, water, the airport, or highways. You just are taking abuse from extraordinarily volatile weather conditions that are now commonplace.” - Thomas Doe “A recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta showed that the Southeast region, which consists of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, grew around 0.2 percentage points per year faster than the United States in most major metrics of economic performance.” - Shatakshee Dhongde Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Apollo Management partner and chief economist Torsten Slok joins to share his economic outlook following the latest inflation data, doubling down on his call that there will not be Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Bloomberg Technology co-host Ed Ludlow joins to talk about why Wall Street is worried about Tesla's quarterly vehicle deliveries report. Mike Kirban, co-founder and executive chair of The Vita Coco Company joins to talk about growth for the beverage brand and the sector broadly. And we Drive to the Close with Eric Jackson, founder and president of EMJ Capital. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What's in store for '24? Torsten Slok, Apollo's Chief Economist, and Pallas Capital's Andrew Krout (Senior Vice President – Wealth Management) and Stephen Kylander  (Senior Portfolio Manager) discuss inflation, capital markets, and the economy.

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to release another interest rate decision. Will the Federal Reserve's statements move the markets and disrupt the bullish momentum in the stock market? Torsten Slok, partner and chief economist at Apollo Global Management, joins us to share what specific phrases from the FOMC may indicate when rate cuts will come and gives us a hot take of his own about what the Fed's decision will be. Then, we're turning our attention to FedEx's earnings report expected on Thursday. The company has marketed new technologies in their business strategies, such as providing integral data from packaged delivery services that may excite investors. WSJ reporter Esther Fung and Heard of the Street editor Spencer Jakab join to explain how companies leaning into ‘tech' branding can affect their stocks and what they're looking to hear on this week's earnings call. Finally, we're turning up the volume on music royalties becoming asset-backed securities. WSJ's Los Angeles bureau chief Sarah Krouse joins to share why musicians like Bruce Springsteen are getting big deals from investors and what it means for markets. How can we better help you take on the week? We'd like to hear from you. Send us an email to takeontheweek@wsj.com.

February CPI is out this morning, with economists expecting the inflation rate to remain unchanged. Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok lays his expectations. Plus, lawmakers are set to vote on a bill that could ban TikTok in the U.S. Wiley Rein's Nova Daly explains. And, Arm's post-IPO lockup period expires today. MSA Capital's Ben Harburg discusses.

 Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Apollo Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok explains why he thinks the Fed will not cut interest rates this year. Bloomberg News Equality Team Reporters Jeff Green and Simone Foxman share how corporate-speak about diversity is getting an update. Bloomberg News National Desk Reporter Nacha Cattan discusses Darien, CT becoming a mini-Greenwich as demand for space in areas closer to where people live, and away from urban cores, becomes more popular. And we Drive to the Close with David Harden, CIO of Summit Global Investments. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 set new intraday highs and closed at record levels to kick off March trading. Apollo's Torsten Slok gives his case for why the Fed won't cut rates this year. Zscaler CEO Jay Chaudhry joins to discuss the latest quarter – and the stock drop that came with it. Boeing is in talks to acquire Spirit Aerosystems; Gabelli portfolio manager Tony Bancroft breaks down what to do with both stocks. Wedbush's David Chiaverini on turmoil at NYCB and what it means for other regional banks. Plus, Elon Musk sues OpenAI, Elastic tumbles on earnings and what's going on with Intuitive Machines and its spacecraft that tipped over on the Moon.

Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed's easing of financial conditions could pose risks to the US economy. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, suggests that a potential repricing of rates would be a pain trade. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, says Apple's growth potential makes the stock a 'golden buying opportunity.' Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Large Cap Bank Analyst, advises incorporating bank stocks into investor portfolios and believes we'll see further consolidation in the industry. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, discusses the latest in the Middle East after a senior Hamas official was killed in Beirut. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Right now, our conversation of the day. Synthesizing all this together. Torson Stock is chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Torson I'm going to pull in here a whole bunch of threads. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is showing massive accommodation, and yet I look at the old liboard, the news, Sofa, sofr and I'm seeing huge restriction within the short term paper market tensions on Wall Street and the ill liquidity on Wall Street. How urgent is it for the FED to make some direction on a March cut or dare I even say a January first cut? Well, it has a number of different dimensions. First, there is a dimension on the real economy. It's clear that the FED pivot has eased financial conditions dramatically, and this begins to run the risk that we might see a repeat of what happened at the citycon Valley Bank. Remember Chris Waller just said a few weeks ago the easing of financial conditions in Q two that boost the GDP growth to five percent in Q three. Could we see the same now where the easing of financial conditions after the fat pivot might actually be boosting the housing market, the label market, services inflation, goods inflation. We are not out of the woods when it comes to battling inflation. So on the real economy, absolutely, the easing of financial conditions is very supportive. There are some issues when it comes to the plumbing when the tightness as you're highlighting in very short term markets, and the FED for sure has to play this difficult talk of wall between do we want to ease financial condition on the rial side or how much can we ease financial conditions in the very front end of the curve. But this is the challenge for the FED. At the moment that you're highlighting, Torsten, you didn't listen. They didn't respond to the idea of financial conditions. They didn't seem to think it mattered at all at the last press conference. Why should it matter now? I mean we're going to actually hear them come back and say, actually, just kidding about that financial conditions question. Well, they were debating in October and September, well maybe financial conditions have done a lot of the work for us, and now they're saying, well, maybe financial conditions it doesn't really matter because it can fluctuate so much. So I still think that it's a little bit inconsistent what they're saying when that data dependency, it only talks about the real data, whereas the financial conditions impulse. If you take the easy and financial conditions that we've had since the fit pivot and stuff it into furpose the fed's model of the US economy, you will get a boom of up to one and a half percent growth over the next slevel quarters in GDP. It's going to be very supportive as a tailwind to the economic outlook. Although we did have Ganadi on earlier of TD securities, and he said even with this idea that inflation could remain stickier, that we could get this ongoing growth, the FED could still cut rates and still be restrictive. Given the positive real rate. Do you ascribe to that kind of thing or do you think that just means many fewer rate cuts going forward for the Fed. I think that's absolutely right that we have. Of course, for the better part of the last year, we have talked about higher for longer. Now the conversation is more restrictive for longer, because they can still be restrictive if inflation is coming down, because real interest rates is what matters. So if real interest rates are still positive as inflation comes down, the fact and according you also gradually begin to lower rates. But note also that if you look at the outlook for sofa futures, as also Tom was mentioning, you still have that the bottom will still be around three and a half four percent. So one very important conclusion for as an allocation is that we are not going back to zero. We have still higher for longer, in the sense that the level of interest rates, the level of the free rate on page one in your finance textbook, will be significantly higher for the next several years than where it was from the period from twosand and eight to twenty twenty two. Let's try and get to the half of what we're discussing. Care the interest rates sensitivity of the US economy exactly. And now what we've seen over the last two years is rates go up aggressively and not slow down the economy. And what you're suggesting is that as rates start to come in and financial conditions ease, that the economy picks up again. Can you help explain that to people why higher rates haven't slowed the economy down but easy find financial conditions will boost it. Ye. But what's very important in that debate, and that's also taking place on Twitter and X of course here at the moment, is that my lift very critically sophisticate. Important to remember that that is significantly a function of whether you talk about the interest rate sensitive components of GDP or the non interest rate sensitive components of GDP. If you split GDP into the cyclical components and the non signal components, the main component that is sensitive to interest rates is housing. And housing did respond dramatically to higher rates. So this whole idea that the economy didn't respond to higher rates, that's just completely wrong. Of course, the economy responded to rates. It was the interest rate sensitive parts that responded to rates going up. Housing started slowing down. But the non interest rate sensitive components, in this case travel, restaurants, hotels. After COVID had such a long tailwind that that more than dominate the slow down in the housing market. So splitting that debate away from the academic textbook, which we all love, is so important because it becomes so critical to think about did the parts of the economy that are sensitive to interest rates did they actually respond? And absolutely, in particular housing Kapix also of COMMERCIALI state things that are sensus of two interest rates they did absolutely respond to when interest rates window. This is a fantastic explanation. So let's build on it. Let's project this out. What are the forecasts now for you for GDP in the next couple of quarters. We heard from the likes of Max Kanner of HSBC who said, the biggest risk right now is that we have to reprice rates again higher because exactly of what you're talking about, what are you looking for in the data? Well, if I type ECFCG on my Bloomberg screen, I will see that over the next six months we are very close to zero, zero point four and zero point five on GDP for Q one and Q two. So the consensus answer to your question is GP growth is continuously slowing as a result of the fat's campaign of hiking rates. The new risk that has emerged is that because of the fit pivot, that means that the interest rates sensitive components that we're dragging down GDP for the better part of last year, they might now begin to rebound. Housing most importantly, case SHILLA is now up five percent. Case SHILLA is a very important leading indicator for the OEI, meaning the shelter components of the CPI, and shelter makes up forty percent of the index, So that means that if something that makes up forty percent of the index is about to rebound, we could come back to that discussion about maybe the rates markets we'll have to reprise to higher for long gun and more restrictive for longer. I just looked at the two year inflation adjusted yield. I haven't looked at it since time began Nixon was president, and I can use the word never over twenty years, the integran, or the duration of a high two year real rate, we've never seen. We had a spike in eight with a great financial crisis, but these sustained high two year real yields are absolutely unprecedented for global Wall Street. How unstable are we right now? I would say, at least from a fet perspective. If you just take the economic textbook out and think about what matters, it is absolutely as you're highlighting real rates, So real rates being at these levels would tell you that we're still in very restrictive territory. So the challenge here for the FIT is that they still want to have the soft landing, and we all want to have the soft landing. That will be the best outcome, of course, from so many dimensions. But what is beginning to matter is that they have now sucked so much liquidity out. We've gotten to a point where we are beginning to see some strains in the plumbing that you're highlighting. And that's why real rates it has a very significant different impact on the long end and what it means for the real economy relative to what high real rates means for the front end and what it means for financial markets as host. And this has been an absolute Cameron Dawson joins US now chief investment Officer at New Edge Wealth Camic and morning and happy New year, Good morning, Happy nowear are you sitting on the fence because I'm written this first line in your work. It says we could have a scenario where both bulls and hairs are right this year, which one is it? Well, I think that we have to be nimble because I believe that there is going to be a scenario where you could very easily see people get drawn even further into this market. We think positioning is overweight, but not quite as is extreme as it was in times like twenty twenty one or twenty eighteen. So you could see some pain get pulled in. But the other reality is that you could see a rationalization of the fact that sentiment is very extended and that valuations are extended. So it's how you react to market rallies or market corrections, I think is how you will win. In twenty twenty four we mentioned that HSBC. So let's talk about the work coming from Max Kentna this morning. Here's this line, biggest risk another repricing and rights. Do you agree with that one hundred percent? That's the pain trade. The pain trade is that everybody thinks that inflation is fully vanquished and then gets surprised if things like oil prices move higher. Wages end up being stickier than expected rates move higher, and then all of those stocks that rerated in the last two months up thirty forty percent because now they're not worried about their balance sheets anymore. Balance sheet risk becomes an issue again, and you get a reversion of a lot of the names that were lower quality that happened to lead at the end of last year. The modeled out earnings are nine percent ten percent. Dare I say double digit eleven percent earnings growth for this year? Is that in the price now or is that going to develop out in the first half of next year. It is in the price now, and I think that we always have to think about the path of twenty four will be pricing in what actually happens in twenty twenty five. So if a recession looks more likely in twenty twenty five, that's when you'll start to see those earning estements get cut into the out years. The thing that's the biggest challenge for us for earning estments in twenty four is the expectation that top line growth will re accelerate in a year where nominal growth because of inflation is expected to decelerate. Can you see that happen at the same time where we get less inflation, less pricing power, and yet we get a big acceleration in top So away for the romance of Apple and Microsoft. If you look at Staples and discretionary and all, you've got to model out there, what you go back from a six percent wonderment of growth back to four percent revenue growth? Yeah, very likely. And there are idiots and pockets where you're going to see improvement. You know, healthcare had its earnings down almost twenty percent last year, that will flip positive this year just because of easy comps. So that's where we're trying to look outside of just the macro drivers, Staples being a great example of one that can't get away from this inflationary dynamic, and look instead to the more idiotsyncratic opportunities our banks to douse syncratic opportunities. And I ask with JP Morgan at new record high, Yeah, I mean you've seen such a huge rerating. Of course, there's pockets of banks where there is still inexpensive areas. You know, banks do have the tailwind of a less inverted curve, hopefully a reopening of capital markets. But then we have to consider things like BTFP, does it get re extended Basil three in game, all of these things that could be big drivers of bank earnings or at least appetite for bank risk as we go through twenty twenty four. It sounds like you're not buying the rotation story. I am buying the rotation story. Yeah. I think that we have to have an open mind that even great companies with great balance sheets, with monopolies could still underperform simply because positioning is so crowded and because valuations are so elevated. That's the smartest insight I've heard in the last forty eight hours. Are we going to have rotation or not? That's a really, really undersaid cool question. I think that that was really some of the anks behind the sell off that we've seen that was living, that was really led by big tech. We were talking about this yesterday with Apple, and I guess that you know, how much does that have legs versus what we saw last year, which was a headfake and everyone came in saying, all right, this is the year to sell tech, and by the end of the year of them was saying in Nvidia Magnificent seven, it's going to change the world. Kumba Yah it's going to save the United States, I mean, et cetera, et cetera. And what a different setup because at the very end of twenty twenty two you had record outflows from tech ETFs. You look at the course of twenty twenty three, you had forty billion dollars of inflows into technology compared to twenty billion dollars of outflows out of things like energy and financials and healthcare. So really this could just be about positioning and pain trades and the fact that you already re rated tech because now it's already just one turn away from its twenty twenty one peak valuation, so you're hitting a ceiling. Let's put a couple of stories together. You said, maybe the biggest paying trait the risk here is high, right, so reprice give rights again at Lisa brought up banks. How woud the banks respond to that given what we saw last year? Yeah, I mean it would raise balance sheet risk again. It probably puts into sharp focus again issues with commercial real estate because we've all kind of breathed this collective sigh of relief that higher for longer is dead if it's not dead, and the path of the cost of capital instead of the last forty years of being down is actually marching slightly higher and in a choppy path. Could mean that we have to reprice some of the risk in some of these balance sheets. Is it just JP Morgan then everyone else? When we talk about the banks, is that what we're talking about? JP Morgan then everybody else? We actually just are looking very deeply at some of the regional banks. Some of the regional banks are underpriced. We think if we look at the balance sheets, they're not as extended as or as issued as some parts of regional banks that some don't have as much commercial real estate exposure, have great presence in their local areas, so they're trading at very discounted valuations. If we're going down in value, that's one of the areas we're actually looking. Yeah, it's somebody at you know, the last five six, seven days at JP Morgan's capturing one out of five profit dollars in American banking. If that isn't the third or fourth or fifth national bank of the United States, I don't know what is. There is nothing else. It's JP Morgan versus everyone else. That's been a story the last year. I'll refer to our guests done this. But yeah, I mean they're capturing some twenty percent of profits according to the source. I'm sorry you don't have a source in front of me to side. I think it's it's the it's the Bramow newsletter. You know that newsletters. It's a muster r. It's a muster reader. Camic. Thank you got to leave this. It's going to catch up. It's going to say a happy new Year, Cameron Dawson, the new h wel let's get right to it. This is so important right now. Dan Ives joins us. He is a bull on any number of technology companies. We wait for him to come out on controlled data here and with a birecommendation at some point. That's a little bit of history there. Dan Ives with webbush Dan, what's a channel check? What exactly is a channel check? I just I just don't see it. Yeah, and look for us in terms of our easier supply gene checks, really trying to focus on what demand looks like in terms of the suppliers for iPhones. There have been no cuts from an iPhone perspective as of data, and I think that's that's bullets and ultimately that shows demand through howadays season has actually been on part, actually better than expected. And to me, that's what I focus on rather than the haters continue, Okay, but data tell Okay, you've been gracious about this, and they've been gracious about your twenty twenty three ganormous success. But when you do a channel check, are you counting iPhones? Are you over in China guessing the manufacturing line? Are you in the store on Madison Avenue looking at how many people from Lisa's family are buy an Apple loot? What's a channel check? Yeah? All above time. I mean, we feel we're in Apple stores around the country, around the world. We're also talking to suppliers basically trying to triangulate to what we think units is going to look like for the quarter and for the year. And that's how we've done it from the beginning, I mean, over the last decades so. And it's one of you're always gonna have different opinions. You just talk about the Barclays downgrade. We continue to stick with our checks. That that has navigated us, you know, a lot more right than wrong. I think when you look at I from fifty, it's easy to take shots, you know, relative to maybe some of the fears out there, especially fire and a crowd theater first day at the trading you know a year I it's a groundhog day. You know, we saw it last year as well. It's underestimated. Two hundred and fifty million. Is the install based upgrade cycle that's due in that window has an upgrade in four years, Dan, let's get into it. You mentioned Barkleys, Tom mentioned it too. I mentioned this, so let's get to that line. The continued period of weak results coupled with multiple expansion not sustainable in that it is a statement of fact, and then there's an opinion of the end. The statement of fact is iPhone cuts. They haven't been great for the last twelve months. That's the fact. Yet it's been coupled with multiple expansion, also a fact. The opinion piece is they're saying it's not sustainable. Are you suggesting that it is? Yeah, So what I'm suggesting is that the next three to four quarters you're going to have iPhone growth. You have growth coming out in China despite the fears and abs are the bare noise, and I think the most important thing is services, and I think services is going to be teenager type of growth. That's key to the multiples Manson story. And then we go into later this year, there's gonna be more monization from an AI as we talked about. That's gonna be the next layer. I think it all results and this is gonna be viewed as more of a golden buying opportunity rather than the start to hit the elevator exit. How much Dan, is your bullish call predicated on this idea of rate cuts, the idea of rates coming down as much as people think, yeah, look, that's probably five ten percent from multiple perspective. I mean, as we saw twenty two to the disaster twenty three in terms of now popcorn movement, in terms of FED gonna cut in twenty four. Look, it speaks to our overall bull tech thesis, right that the soft landing Killsberry do a boys soft landing. You're starting to see now more and more focus on tech. I do think now. You know, as Pharaoh's talked about multiple expansion twenty three, I think the numbers show it in twenty four. That's the difference. Twenty four is where the numbers come through, and tech twenty three was more than multiple expansion. Well, you mentioned China and how China demand is going to pick back up, But I wonder if it's going to be for iPhones. And I know we've been talking about this for a long time, but yesterday this caught my attention. The Chinese automaker BYD surpassed Tesla in terms of deliveries for the first time. You're seeing that really start to be a main theme. People said that that was never going to happen. People say that it's never going to happen, that Chinese consumers are going to throw out their iPhones. What makes you so confident that we're not going to see the same thing happen in the iPhone cycle that we're seeing right now in the electric vehicle one? Yeah, great question. And look, when you focus on Tesla, I mean that's essentially two horse race between TESTSA and BID. Tests actually beat numbers and China was strong for them. But I think it does speak to look domestically BID they're beast. I mean, they've done a phenomenal job, but Tessa is always going to be aware there in China. When you look at what's happening within the China market from an idphone perspective, it speaks to just a massive and all bays that they built in China. You have one hundred million iPhones in China right now, window of an upgrade opportunity, and the irony is despite geopolitical the last eighteen months, Apples gained three inch books of market share because the average high end, as in middle income Chinese consumer, they want an iPhone despite government basically trying to push WAWE. And I'm so pleased to Lisa brought up the EV comparison because I think that industry right now has the potential to be the industry story of twenty twenty four and beyond byd beyond Tesla. How much of a reality check are we getting for the industry for the likes of GM and Ford, I think a big reality shacka. That's why you've seen Farley. I think Mary they pull back, you know, in terms of a bit from the EV strategy in Detroit. And the problem here is do consumers want EV or they just want to tessel And I think that that's really the issue that's really starting to play out. And at this point, Tesla's doubling down on evs, but no doubt there's been I think much more moderate demand that we're seeing across the board, and you know, I think as that puts out, you're going to see others peel back while others go more aggressively, like the likes of the Tesla. I wonder what you think the endgame actually is. If you speak to the leadership at GM of thought, they've been generous with that time we've had this conversation with them. They talk about a change in execution, maybe not a change in strategy. Would you expect to see a change in strategy this year and what would that look like? I think slight changing strategy where maybe they pull back on some of their long term numbers in terms of EV when they expect to go fully EV you know, as a two thousand and thirty four thirty five. Look, the UAW also put their back against the wall. It's a different cost structure and they're trying right now to it's a tight balancing act that they're trying to get to in Detroit. And I think also it's tough going up against the likes of Tesla and some of these other evs. That's been a big part of the problem that they're focused on, especially now with the UAW. Increase in the cost structure, well said Dan. Going to hear from your happy new year, Sir Dan is Wetbush. Jere Cassidy, Large Camp Bank analyst that RBC Capital markets rights in this. After a tumultuous twenty twenty three, we believe the banks are our positioned for investors to warn outsize returns in twenty twenty four and investors should overweight the sector in their portfolios. Jer Cassidy, I'm pleased to say join us. Now let's go straight to it. Number one question. This is a question for me, and I know it's a question for Lisa. Is this off the back of high yields or lower yields? I would say John that we're expecting that the yields gravitate lower, especially at the front end of the curve when you take a look at what the Fed has done. If we truly are at the terminal rate for FED funds in the past four tightening cycles when they started to cut rates, it's always been a catalyst for bank stocks. And think what we're expecting as the market is that at some point in twenty four the Fed could cut your term interest rates. Is this for bank stops or is this for JP Morgan at least a very good question, because JP Morgan has been the risk off trade and it's been spectacular, as you guys mentioned, record highs. And so if we're going into a risk on environment, which I believe we are, if the FED is finished tightening, then actually JP Morgan is probably going to be a source of funds for many investors. It is a stock that is owned everywhere. It's been a great stock, but risk on may be the better way to go with a Bank America or City Group or others like that a source of funds. I love that it's a euphemism for it gets sold, so that you could raise money to buy something you think is going to return more the fact that you think it's going to be Bank of America. Do you also lean into the Mic Mayo idea that City Group and its whole revamp with some of its streamlining, hutting units, massive job cuts is going to be the real winner over time is going to be certainly an opportunity to be a winner. They've still got a lot of heavy lifting. Jane Frasier's leading the charge here, of course, and I think it's a very big, complicated job. It's turning around the notion liner. There's early progress, a lot of heavy lifting, as I said to do. But if she can succeed in the management, succeed this stock is definitely undervalued and it has great upside, but it's been a value trapped for many years, so we'll have to wait and see. Jarred I went to a seminar once at a firm long ago called Tucker, Anthony and Rlday, and I was lectured that banks are supposed to return nominal GDP plus a little bit. I'm going to center tendency. Is that make an eight, nine, ten percent once in your lifetime? JP Morgan has turned that upside down. You didn't see this coming. You're the expert, nor did anybody else. The returns of ten years, of twenty years or fifteen percent or so. Their thirty year return is solid double digit return. What did Harrison? What did Diamond get right? Tom? It's really Jamie Diamond. I think you could get give Harrison credit, I guess for merging with Bank one when Jamie Diamond was their CEO. And of course Diamond has taken over since then, and it's been his steadfast focus on delivering for shareholders, both through expansion and growth, but at the same time controlling expenses. They also have done a very good job in diversifying their revenue. Their consumer banking business, similar to Bank America, is very very profitable. On top of that, they've got a very strong capital markets business. The bear Stearns acquisition, which was very difficult in early years because of the reputational problems that came along with it, has worked out extremely well for them. So I would say the diversity of revenue, Tom and the focus on leading or delivering for shareholders. But back to Andrew Jackson, who you covered, you know years ago, Girardi, I mean, are they the fifth bank of the Uni United States? Over the holidays, somebody said one out of five profit dollars comes to JP Morgan. They're building their palace on fifth on Park Avenue right now. I mean to the Butch Cassidy idea, who are these guys? Are they the Bank of the United States. I don't think they're the Bank of the United States. But they have done a great job in delivering for their shareholders and for their employees and their communities as well. It's been a big growth engine for the company. This economy, the global economy as well. And again it's this leadership that they have under Diamond and his executive management team. And Tom, you know, many of his senior folks have left JP Morgan and are now CEOs of other banks, like Charlie Sharp at Wells Fargo, and so he's got a very deep bench and they execute. And that's the key. Tom. You know, banking is a commodity business. As you well know, it's all about execution. And JP Morgan is that you executed extremely well. What is the business model though, that you want to execute as a big US bank? Chard And this, I think is one of the key questions that we had during last year when the rise of private capital, private equity, private debt really was challenging the capital markets activity of certain big financial institutions. Can the JP Morgans, the Bank of Americas, the city groups get into the private debt world that in some ways has been stealing their lunch? I think it Ken, Lisa, And when you think about it, and you're right, the private equity private debt area is certainly growing much faster than the banks. But believe it or not, the shadow banking industry has been taking the bank's market share for forty years you go back to the early eighties and you look at the market share that the banks had of lending into the United States, it was well over forty percent. The private or shadow banking market was in the low twenties. Today it's completely flip flopped. The bank's market share now is in the low twenties and the shadow banking is in the fifty over fifty percent. So the banks have done it through consolidation. You know, when Tom and I were young, we had over eighteen thousand banks in the United States in the early nineteen eighties. Today there's forty six hundred. JP Morgan has been a big beneficiary of that, and they've been able to create those efficiencies. So yes, they can compete. They will compete, and I don't think that the banks are going to be put out of business, but certainly they don't have the market share that they used to have. But we have to remember too, the economy has grown dramatically in forty years, and they have the smallest slice of the pie, but they're more profitable than ever, not just JP Morgan, but other banks as well. What about the smaller banks, Given the fact that you're talking about a bigger slice of just overall activity. You haven't seen that so much in the smaller banks, and with rates forbading high, you're going to have real commercial real estate pressures as well. It's interesting, it depends on you know how small the bank is and who owns it. I've always maintained this banking system we have in the United States is obviously very polarized. You got the very small banks at one end and the very large banks at the other end. And if it's a non if it's if the owners of the smaller banks, private banks, or mutual savings banks or another group of banks, if their owners are comfortable with earning returns on equities of four or five percent, and they're not going to sell the bank as long as they have FDIC insurance, they're going to remain in business indefinitely. On the other end, if you do have a bank with thirty billion in assets and it's not earning up to what its shareholders want it's to earn, then they're going to have to consolidation. Consolidation is going to continue. We're in a pause right now, but the long term trend has been consolidation in the industry will continue to consolidate in the future and argue, Jared, let's finish on Washington if we can. I was speaking to your colleague Amy with Silverman just yesterday and were reflected on a line that came from Lori Cavasina, who I think described presidential politics in the election on the horizon like staring at the sun. I just wonder if that's what it's like for you. Have you given any thought to changes in leadership in Washington and what might mean for the companies to fall under your cover? John, It's a good question because it's going to be the topic du jour this year, of course, with the election coming. And what we can say is that under the current administration there's been more regulation of banks, particularly with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. We don't know who's going to be running, you know, just yet in November, but if Trump is the candidate for the other party, the Republican Party, and if he was to win, his administration had less regulation for banks. So if that administration was to come back, you would have to expect they would change the heads of different regulatory agencies in twenty twenty five, and it probably would be less regulation for the banks as we move forward, you know, Johnny. I think Bloomberg Radio is missing it today because we're seeing the fireplace with your dacity here on Bloomberg Television talks about inflation South Paris, Maine. Three hundred and twenty five dollars per cord of red oak that's delivered to Shake Cassidy and he's he's popping like eight night cords of winter. He used a thing about that. I mean, it's adding up. It's expensive. But don't you love the smell. The smell's great. The damn dog is over by the fireplace. The smell you know, this dog's called Elizabeth. We won't call Aaron. We want to thank you, Joe Capital of Marcus, Thank you, sir. Let's get to it, and we do it with an authority that we have had through Auto Tournament of the Eastern Mediterranean. Norman rule joins us now senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the courses work for the nation in intelligence. Norman. When I say Lebanon, for all of us of a certain persuasion, we are completely formed by something frankly is stunning forty years ago, which is the Beirut Barracks bombing. When we lost marines at accountable iwo Jima level. Where are we now with Lebanon, with Hesbela, Do we have a relationship? Was it forever fractured forty years ago? That's an excellent point, and I regret I remember that incident well and lost friends. The event of forty years ago actually had a different message for the world. The US pulled out of Lebanon at that time, and Osama bin Laden later stated that watching the withdrawal of the United States from Lebanon was one of the motivators for him to undertake his operations because he realized the West could be pushed back out of the region. Are we being pushed back now? I mean within the multiple fronts at Lisa Abramowitz's outlined this morning Gods of the West Bank and again up to the border with Lebanon as the West is America being pushed out now? No, we have a very different profile, and indeed, diplomacy is likely going to increase in intensity and come out weeks because we need to come up with a way to move. Lebanese has belowed north of the Israeli border so that Israeli citizens can return to their homes. The thousands tens of thousand of Israeli citizens to open their businesses, go to school, and also so that tens of thousands of Lebanese can return south to that border which has become such a flashpoint in recent weeks. Yeah, hundreds of thousands of people have been misplaced or displaced as a result of some of the fighting on both sides. But Norman and I'm curious whether this is an escalation the fact that Israel did attack according to Hamas, but also with a wink, wink, nod nod from Israeli officials to kill this is Mamas executive. Well, to be clear, Israel has stated from the beginning of the October seventh massacred that it would eradicate the Hamas leadership responsible for that action, and therefore this is no surprise. I think what you have to look at is this drone attack, which Israel has not admitted but is understood to have undertaken, took place in an incredibly secure, prey conscious neighborhood, and it demonstrates an exquisite and dynamic intelligence capacity. So as Hesbula thinks about it's connor its response to this, it's got to think about what is known around us and what can we get away with and what will happen to the people who might be involved in that attack against Israel. Do you have any sense, Norman, of what the conversations are like with Hamas, with Hesbelah, with the Iranian leadership, given the fact that a lot of people think that they're taking some cues from Iran, that there has been funding from Iran, that you have the Iranian warship going to the Red Sea, and the huthis also Iranian fact making noise and trying to interrupt Western shipping lines. Iran It's proxies have no strategic drivers to involve themselves more fully in this conflict. It would impact multiple strategic equities for a game that is uncertain that they have multiple incentives to continue and perhaps raise the intensity of attacks against Israel to show that they have skin in the resistance game. I should also note that today, the January third, is the fourth anniversary of the killing of Cossum Solomoni, and that's a day when one would expect Iranian proxies to attack US or Israeli versus just for that symbolic anniversary. Exactly where I wanted to go normally let's talk about it, the assassination of the major General. It's easy to forget that it ever happened because several weeks later, many weeks later, we were all drowning in a global pandemic. What has happened since then with the relationship between the United States and Iran, between two different white Houses, very little. The indirect engagement that took place did produce the possibility of some sort of engagement, a hostage released by the Iranians in exchange for the release of personnel. But Iran's regional activities did not change, and I don't think the White House expected them to change. More So, Iran's nuclear program has continue to expand. And here's the important point. Iran is now producing enriched uranium at level that no state that is not pursued a nuclear weapon has ever produced. It has no civilian use for the nature of its current enrichment. So you have to ask yourself the question, has the West de facto recognized the Iranian military nuclear program? The White House would say no. The facts do raise the question. Norman a tough way to Segui here, but I'm going to do it as one final question. Taiwan continues to come up within our first of the year conversations. Do we have good intelligence on mainland China? The United States intelligence program against China, has stated by Central Intelligence Agency had Bill Burns, is robust and works significantly. I won't comment on those operations to the extent that I know of them, but I will say that this remains such a priority that it's an all source intelligence programs at all imagery and a variety of different aspects. We're going to have a good understanding of some of China's activities that will provide the warning policy maker's need for the update. You're insights so valuable, Norman Roll there for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thank you, sir. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, explains why the US labor market will “gradually be softer and softer” over the next several months. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro & Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

 Marc Rowan, Apollo CEO, says his firm has no plans to shift from private equity amid the best year in its history, and also discusses rising antisemitism and the 2024 presidential election. Jim Zelter, Apollo Asset Management Co-President, says the Fed put is back in the market. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says there's evidence of a weakening labor market. Olivia Wassenaar, Apollo Head of Sustainable Investing, joins from the COP28 climate summit in Dubai where she says there's a 'tremendous' amount of optimism and capital.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy,  says the path for equities is higher in 2024. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, breaks down record-high Black Friday sales. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, discusses the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management, says the Fed's rate policy is leading to a gradual slowdown.  Steve Schwarzman, Chairman & CEO of Blackstone Inc., says his firm has seen a bevy of buying opportunities in real estate across Europe. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript:  This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin the program with Lori Cavasina, head of US ecority Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Lori, good morning. We hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I want to kick off with your call fifty one hundred for five thousand rather year rent on the s and P five hundred for next year Deutsche Bank going one further, a fifty one hundred, Lurie talk to us about the path to five k. Well, thanks for having me as always, and look, you know we purposefully did not put out you know, we see a near term pullback and a resurgence. I think a lot of people got caught in that trap in twenty twenty three calling for a near term pullback in the first quarter that didn't end up happening. I do think we'll be watching our sentiment indicator very closely. It's been the best star in the sky to navigate the equity market this year, but it's also round tripped a couple of times. It started out giving you a screaming by signal because of deep pessimism. Return to that post. SBB gave a sales signal in August and then gave a by signal again in November. So I think we're going to have to just be very tactical in that. You know, I have been telling people November is very consistently a strong month, but December is a little bit more hit or miss. So we'll see if we end up getting the Santa or Grinch in December. But I do think the path for equities is higher next year, and if we do have a bit of a short term pullback either in December to start the year, I expect it to be temporary. Llurie Goldman Sachs had a note thanks zero Edge for this on sales girls looking out two years twenty three, twenty four to twenty five and the difference between them magnificent seven with eleven percent sales grows versus the SPX four ninety three of three percent sales growth. Why would anybody sell the magnificent seven right now? I think it's a great question, Tom. When we look at our indicators and we look at the megacap growth trade broadly, it looks crowded. If you look at the weekly CFTC data on Nasdaq one hundred futures positioning, we're basically close to peak valuation and growth relative to value. If you look at the rustle one thousand on a weighted PE multiple, which is going to be very heavily influenced by that magnificent seven. And if you look at earning's momentum, we're still seeing better earnings revision trends and growth and value, but value is starting to catch up a little bit, so we are seeing that leadership on the earning side fade a little bit. All of that tells me that there should be a pause in growth leadership at some point. But I think one of the reasons people can't really permanently quit these growth stocks is kind of hitting on exactly what you said, the idea that there will be superior growth there over the intermediate term. And if you look at GDP forecasts for next year one percent in real terms anticipated by the street one point eighty percent in twenty twenty five. When we're in a sub two percent GDP environment, growth stocks usually do outperform because economic growth is perceived to be scarce. So I do think there is a real tension. You know, we still like the tech sector even though we have these shorter term tactical concerns on growth, had those tactical concerns on growth frankly for a while, and they've yet to really materialize in a big way. And I do feel like you may need to see a real ratcheting up of GDP expectations before you can really see growth loose some of that leadership dominance. When you talk about sentiment and how really that's been the loadstone for you, it's figuring out where is investor sentiment em betting against it? Am I correct? Basically? You know, one of the things I've learned over my career, Lisa, is that when everybody is really really pessimistic, that's usually a fantastic time to buy. If you look at when the AAII net bullishness indicator is, you know, sort of one standard deviation or two standard deviations below the long term average. I forget the exact stat, but it's in the eighties in terms of the percent of time that you're up twelve months later. And you see similar stats if you look on the flip side when people are overly enthusiastic. Now, if you're above one standard deviation on extreme optimism, you still tend to see like a five percent gain over the next twelve months. So it's not necessarily a washout, but it does tell you that you tend to see consolidation. You do tend to see some choppier markets, And I think that's why it's so important, Lisa to really prioritize data over narratives. I know a lot of strategists like to tell a great story and then they go out and put together their charts to try to fit whatever narrative they're pushing out there. But I really think that you have to stick to the data, and things like that centiment indicator will keep you into falling into consensus traps. Again, everybody just sort of gloms onto the same narrative and things get too extreme. Well, the narrative that we've been hearing again and again is five thousand on the SMP going into next year at least, if not more, And there has been a sort of boom and optimism that we've seen. Does that mean it's time to start taking some chips off the table and to be a little bit less optimistic or does this mean that finally you might see some of that cash at record levels going into the equity market. Well, it's interestingly so you know, everybody wants to sort of talk about this idea, and this is maybe on the more barish side of the table that bonds look more attractive than stocks and the earning shield has collapsed relative to the bond yield, and all that is true, But if you actually go back, there have been periods in history when equity investors or investors in general have taken up both their equity allocations and their bond allocations at the same time. So I don't think it's unheard of for both to do. Well, you know, five thousand, it's starting to be a number we're hearing a lot. I think we were maybe the second person on the cell side that had it when we put ours out, but you are starting to hear about it. And I think ten percent is usually a reasonable place that a lot of strategists start, we do have one model that can take us up to fifty three hundred, and that's looking at our valuation work and earning's work. And I will tell you, Lisa, like and as I was putting the report together, you always think about kind of where did you go wrong in the past year. I was more optimistic than most, but not optimistic in the end. And that valuation model was the one thing that was telling me all year to look for forty seven hundred, forty eight hundred on the S and P it's pointing to forty seven hundred on the end of the year. Now twenty twenty three one point it was saying forty eight forty nine. So I do think you have to have a little bit of humility when you look at these forecasts. We look at a bunch of different models. We take the median. Some are more constructive, some are less. But I do think we do have to pay attention to that bowl case setting into next year, because so it's really what works this year? Does that mean a banner? Kelvistin says fifty three hundred. I'd like we could go there quite I think we stick with five K. I just wanted to jump in when you were putting this together. Surely five K was something like twenty percent upside of the time. So you know, John, I started back in October pricing the models, and we actually published a report in October where we said we're not going to do our target yet, but here's what all the models are showing. And back then we were getting, you know, more a little bit of a more subdued number because we had a lower starting point, so we did price everything. As of mid November, I think a lot of our models we froze as November fifteenth, November sixteenth, so we really are kind of getting sort of a true ten percent from current conditions as of mid November. Basically, when I do this, John, I go into a black hole for a few days, don't answer my phone, don't answer email, and don't talk to anybody, and update all at once. So well, welcome Bocasta the black hole, Laurie. We're happy to see you, Lori Cavasena. Obviously, Capital Markets, there's no one better to speak to on this. As if you stand at the four corners of fifty seventh Street and Fifth Avenue, the Dana Telsea is a child gazing upon Berg Dorth Goodman and across the street to Tiffany's and where Louis Vuton is now when there's some other unpronounceable I can't afford store on the other corner. Telsea joins us now CEO, chief Research officer of her Telsey Advisory Group. You got this right. A lot of people got this wrong. How did you expect this optimism that we come out of the season. Well, thank you very much for having me, and hope you guys had a great holiday. Here's I think overall, keep in mind we did have a barrage of earnings reports all talking about the cautious consumer inventory levels are lean. Promotions were in place thirty to forty That isn't outstanding, that isn't going off the rails. In terms of level of promotions, they were definitely clean. What you saw in terms of traffic, look at the Lululemons, the bathroom, body works. Macy's had more traffic than what you had at Nordstrom, and off prices like TJX had a ton of traffic. And the teen retailers picked up the reason why, value and innovation. If you add value and you had innovation, the consumer was coming So look at Uggs and Hoka where there was innovation. You look at the value on the pricing. It meant something. But we have a long season coming up now. Christmas is on a Monday. Watch that weekend before Christmas. Because procrastinators, it's their choice of when they want to spend. Just let's build them that this idea of watch what happens later in the season. Are you saying that you suspect people brought forward their shopping much more than they had in the past because they are being cautious. So the numbers are inflated to represent that more than just excessive spending altogether. Yes, I think. You look at the savings rate which has come down, You take a look at delinquencies which have gone up, and you look at what's happened with the pattern of promotions. It began in October, So with Amazon Prime Day in October their second Prime Day, you had a pull forward of what the promos were, and of course online is going to be strong. Stores are no longer open on Thanksgiving Day? So what did people do? They shop with their phone? Mobile mattered? Well, this really raises this question. Is it the modality of shopping that matters? Right now or is it the type of product mix that matters right now? And I'm curious, can you parse that up? Is it just online shopping or is it the products that people are getting online. It's the products that people are getting, and don't throw out the stores. The stores matter, the engagement that people have, the social interaction. So many companies in twenty twenty three came out with new store formats. You look at on mall and off mall, they both won and even outlets are strong. And that measure for value, where's the best total return of twelve months? You and Joe Feldman they're not on speaking terms on this, but the basic idea of which kind of retail and which individual stock is the best possibility off price I think is going to win over the next twelve months. TJ Max, would you off price? Off price? Not luxury, different world, it's off price. It's the TJ max Is of the world, the Burlington's and the Ross stores. Why they're getting the benefit of a trade down. Look at what you just saw in their results last week when they each delivered same store sales of at least five percent, when you typically these are three percent same store sales increases. They're getting the benefit of the trade down. There's been a heritage of Tjmax executing what's the secret sauce that makes them do that? The experience of their buyers. They know how to buy, They have their relationships with brands. Brands like being in their stores and they sell through and don't forget their locations. The description that you're painting of the American consumer is not that positive. It's one that is trading down. As you said, it's one that has caution that might not show up in force before that Monday Christmas. So where are we in this cycle, right? I mean, is this a matter of people running out of money or is it just them saying, well, we've been spending a lot recently. We probably should be a little more prudent. They had more money two years ago with the stimulus package during the pandemic. The load to middle income consumer is battered right now by higher interest rates. Even though inflation's moderating, it's still a higher price than it was in the past. And even you take a look at the luxury consumer, you need the feel good factor. With the geopolitical issues going on, the macro headwinds out there and the volatility the stock market, it makes it more challenging. So that's why experience. Look at the tailor swift concerts over the summer, what people are willing to spend on. Give them something innovative, they'll be there. So what does it say about the trajectory of the consumer and how people are going to be spending. Is it the beginning of more pain or is this basically the bulk of it. I think this is in the middle of the pain that we're I think the focus on essentials is right there. I think you need newness in order to drive demand. And even though the labor market continues to remain very good, the watchwords are out there and saying what's it going to look like? And inventory is cleaner, so you don't need to promote as deeply as you had in the past. Look at what's happening with the department stores. They're ordering more cautiously, and why are they ordering cautiously if they don't feel the demand is going to be there. They'd rather sell at full price than markdowns. And your most profitable markdown is your lowest markdown, not your greatest markdown. Toughest job in retail this year is a guy named Sabata Dico at Gucci absolute toughest, toughest job. Dana Telsey on what Gucci's going to do right off that corner of Fifth Avenue and fifty seventh. I think they're going more basic than they've ever been before. Absolutely, they're going away from what the idiocy was for three years. Yeah, the mismatching of the three years is all about matching now and it's about safe. They're going back back to their archives and seeing what can they reinvent and updated proof that we want that. Is there a proof that will sell to the Chinese? I think there's some proof it will sell to the Chinese, But we're not seeing the Chinese travel yet. We need them traveling to really drive demand. And don't forget you're seeing the local Europeans slow down. Also, what do you make of the buy now, Pay Later and we were hearing that it's actually picking up. Do you buy that? Do you think that this is a positive sign for the retail world or is it a negative sign that people are just basically turning to leverage. People are turning towards leverage. When buy Now, Pay Later first came out, it was a huge event. A huge development because it got younger people and frankly the millennials to spend. I think now that it's been around for a few years, if they can't pay on time, they're willing to delay and frankly be able to extend what their payment terms are. Is it changing charge cards? I mean, is buy now, pay later changing the charge card business? Not what we've seen. It didn't take off tremendously. It took off with a certain graphic and those are the millennials single best buke go. I think that it's going to be TJX. I think TJX is going to be the winner for Holiday in twenty twenty four. Dana, thank you for the brief. Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Here we have seen far too much of him. He is an expert on turmoil, war and terrorism. Aaron David Miller with a continued brief, Senior Fellow Carnegie Endowment for International Piece. Aaron, just let me just cut to the chase. If we get out to a point of negotiation from where you sit, is there a hamas to negotiate with? Now there is, and the cutteries and the Americans are validating Hamas's effectiveness. The three of you are better analysts than I am, because you've i think, identified the core questions. There's growing daylight. The world is mad at Joe Biden, even though I think frank his own party's mad at him. There's a degree twenty five years at Department of State, I've never seen, never the degree of dissension and vocal opposition to an administration's policy from inside the foreign policy and national security space. On one resignation, but an extraordinary amount of noise. I think the President Frankly handled this pretty effectively. The Israeli Lebanese border is relatively quiet. The fears of escalation into a regional war which could produce plunging financial markets and rising up prices. So far that's been avoided, And you're right to focus on ostages, but I think the deal is very clear. I'd be stunned, frankly, if this humanitarian past collapsed. Hamas is trading hostages for time. They're hoping that the hostage families inside of Israel will continue to pressure the government in order to redeem all of the hostages that have not been The Arabs are angry, and THEWS earliers are going to face probably in the next week. If the ten hostages for a day of quiet, which is the offer on the table, If Amas accepts that doesn't add requests for more Palestinian prisoners, you could get another week out of this. But at some point the Israelis are going to want to resume in their ground campaign, and at that point, I think you're going to see growing awkwardness and uncomfortableness, maybe even tension in the US Israeli relationship. There's daylight between President Biden and some of his own members within his party, within his team that he has surrounding him. But he also reportedly has expressed concern about the collateral damage, about the civilians who have gotten killed, the incredible number, more than people had originally expected. How much is that going to lead to pressure in a new way that Benjamin not to Yahoo, who is not exactly popular at home, we'll have to listen to. I think that's the core question. President persona alone among modern presidents, he considers himself part of the Israeli story and is preternaturally his emotional support for Israel literally is impressed on his DNA. The politics. As you point out, he has to be concerned about rising the rising type opposition the Democratic Party, but the Republicans, who have emerged as the sort of Israel right or wrong party, are also waiting for him to pressure the Israelis so that they can pressure Joe Biden. And finally, there's I think the president's realization that he doesn't have many good answers to the two or three critical questions that the Israelis are facing with. How do you prosecute a ward to eradicate Hamas without an exponential rise in Palestinian desks? How do you surge humanitarian assistance into a war zone? And finally, what do you do about the proverbial day after its weeks and months after? So I think part of the reason he's reluctant to press the Israeli's hard so far is because he doesn't have better answers for them these core questions. Aaron David Miller a student of this, with your books back thirty years, don't go out thirty years for but I'm going to give you five years or ten years forward. Is our relationship with Israel irrevocably changed? A fascinating question. The headline would suggest that generational changes in voter constituency in Congress. The growing divergence between United States and the values proposition that Israel is a liberal democracy more or less seeking the same things that we do, and growing policy differences suggest that, yeah, there is a lot of fraud tension in this relationship. Whether it's a headline or a trend line, that's the key issue. I suspect that the operating system that has kept the US's a Reeli relationship pretty much very close together is going to continue for quite some time. But again, we support Israel because it's an American interest to do so, and because it reflects American values to do so. When those things change in the face of our right wing Israeli government that's pursuing opposite policies both at home and with respect to diplomacy on the Israeli Polish Ennian issue, then I think the US is really relationship will begin to change. That tension is continuing to build. And thank you so fantastic to hear from you, Aaron David Miller. There of the kind of endowment for international pain. Torsten Sluck He's chief economist at Appalled Global Management and writes a piercing short note each morning and here he hearkens back to the skeletons in the closet, the worries that those older have about is this time like well, try nineteen seventy two, Is this time like a nifty to fifty or the point where Polaroid and Xerox were one of the five Magnificent five that we're out there, Doctor Slock joins us this morning, I loved the equal multiples. Now with nineteen seventy two, I believe that ended ugly. Do you take that over to an analog that this will end ugly? Well, we still, of course have to wait and see exactly how AI will be used, and no one really knows how it'll be implemented, and how much productivity we'll get out of it, how much more consumption or welfare overall. But the bottom line really is what we can track is the valuations, And what I did right in the note today is exactly that the valuations and the trajectory is beginning to look quite similar, including the levels we're at with the pe for AI stocks or the Magnificent seven. Now at above fifty on a trailing basis, it does make you wonder a little bit whether this is indeed going to have a different story compared to what we've seen before, or whether this is actually going to be similard some I mentioned Tom Galvin years ago at Donald sim Lufkin Generator was very top line sales specific. Are we going to have the nominal GDP to support the magnificent seven even if they level out, or to bring the breadth up in a good market. Well, the problem is that the SMP four ninety three has basically been flat for the last year. So the conclusion is that so far all the market gains have been driven by this handful of stocks. So that of course also should bring us all to the discussion, Okay, is this sustainable? To what degree? Is this something that is a good representation of the oral index? If you really end up just buying into one simple story, namely AI, which is the reason why a lot of people are focused on the consumer to understand exactly where we are in this spending picture. And I want to go back to what we really began with this idea of are we seeing sustained sales and a sustained strong consumer or are we just seeing these shifts underway regardless of who ends up benefiting the most. But shifts underway. That represents strength in pockets in the overall picture. Yeah, and absolutely, I do think that it's clear that the shifts have been towards services. So that's why goods have generally been slowing down. Another strength point, as you're pointing out, is that we've also seen strengthen online. But if you really back up and look at the data for how is the consumer doing. Well, we just heard your previous guests talk about trading down. If you look at the language rates for all the loans have been going up, the language rates for credit cards have been going up. We're seeing across the board the level of interest rates are beginning to bite harder and harder and harder on consumers. So the conclusion, of course, is that the FED is actually achieving exactly what the textbook would have predicted. Namely, the slowdown might not have been as fast as we all thought just a few quarters ago, but it is still playing out. The slowdown is here and it will continue. We still have the worst ahead of us. It is the case that monetary policy is biting continuously also going forward, what's the distance between goldilocks and a full blown recession. Well, the runway that we are on here for slowing the economy down. From a FED perspective, certainly is that inflation is coming down. The labor market is also gradually coming down, and we got to get a soft landing not only in invasion but also the labor market. But we begin to see that on a plant rate has gone up from three point falls now at three point nine. That's create a lot of discussion about the PSAM rule and to what degree that's an indicator of a recession or not. But the conclusion to your question, Lisa is I do think that we should view this in the broader context of what is it the FIT is trying to do? And the FIT is trying to slow the economy down. That's why they raise interest rates, they raise interust rates because they want us to buy fewer costs fuel wash us fuel refrigerators, let's furniture, let fewer iPhones, and because of that we should over time continue to see that process play out. There is a real tension right now, and I see this under the notes underpinning the notes calling for five thousand or fifty one hundred on the S and P by the end of next year, which is how the federal respond to the slowdown that they wrought that they wanted to see. Will they cut rates aggressively just simply because they're tightening the screws at a faster pace as growth slows. Do you buy that they will do that even if it keeps perhaps the economy flow and prolongs this period of disinflation. This is a really important discussion in teams. In M language, we are looking at the tailor rule. How much weight do they put on inflation? How much weight do they put on the labor market. So far, all the weight has almost entirely been on inflation. And the question is next year, once inflation does get closer to two, will they begin to shift their attention over towards the label market? In other words, are the coefficients changing so that we put more weight on the label market. Now that the labor market is beginning to show some signs of weakening, I appreciate that jobless claims are not slowing, but the work week is coming down. If you look at job openings is coming down. A number of indicators are suggesting that label demand is weakening. So I do think that they will begin to shift away from focusing purely on inflation to begin to focus. Also more on the label a slock rule. It's like the tailor. I'm inventing it right now. Focus the slock rule. Look for this. The slock rules is three months moving average and non farm payrolls. What statistic do we need on a three months moving average of non farm payrolls? Where we make the great tailor to slock shift. See if you look at your latest number for a non found it was one hundred and fifty thousand. If idays one eighty eight two, and if I type Ecoco on Bloomberg, I will see that by second quarter of next year, non found paybrows will on average fall April, May and June be thirty five thousand. So now goes not wondering, thirty five thousand, So that is not wondering. That's the average, So that can have some fluctuation. I was not wondering. I always say this and p going to trade. If we get thirty five thousand and non fund payrose, what if it even goes below zero? The risk is here that we may have a runway and the lack of effects of Martins hear pology essentially beginning to be a big a trag on growth. Adobe just out Amy, Thank you so much for this. This is Bramo spending this weekend. Adobe a twelve billion to twelve point four billion Cyber Monday spend last year was eleven point three billion. But to your distinction, that's cyber that's just we're parsing out how all of us are glued to Amazon and it's cyber Monday today, let alone all the other spending that we've seen over this period of time. Really, I mean, honestly, the distortions have been incredibly difficult to really pick up on, which is the reason why I'm listening to what you're saying toward Sten, this idea of the labor market weakening and the FED maybe responding to that, and I'm thinking about, well, people still have money to spend, Their real wages are actually going up, and oh yeah, this is a job full recession that people are accepting. This is what they say, right, that people are hoarding labor, this is a new world. Do you push back against that? Well, there is in your weekend reading from the Fed the working papers that write about this. There is some debate between the Boston Fed, the San Francisco Fed, the New York Fed, has also written about this. The Board of Prominence has also written about this. The key issue still is it's very clear that we are ultimately running out of savings, excess savings in the household sex. So the question is some people view that has already happened, other view that's about now, other view that may only happen in the next few quarters. But the trend is very clear. The fit is getting what they want. They want a slowdown, and that's why you will also madly get excess savings running out. And let's not forget student dont payment started on the first of Octoba. That's why retail sales for Octoba was readtivy week. If we put all these things together, I still think that the slowdown continues. Deutsche Bank put out a forecast for one hundred and seventy five basis points of FED rate cuts next year. Is that feasible with the recipe that you just put out there. Well, that does require, of course quite a hot slowdown in the economy. That certainly requires a recession and a hot landing. The question is that's not what the contentious is expecting at the moment. But it's clear that if we do get a shop all slow down, and that is also what the contentious is expecting. It's just above ceral DP is expecting it below zero. Both scenarios make sense on their own, but the conclusion still is we still have more downside risk from where we are at the moment. I got to go back to your day job a couple of years ago before you got this easy slog with Apollo, and that was a Deutsche Bank Rischie Senak, the Prime Minister told our Francine Lacroix adamantly he is not prescribing austerity. You and folk arts Landau live this at Deutsche Bank, of the continent of Europe and of the United Kingdom. Is there a risk they slip into an incorrect austere policy. Well, the problem is that both the UK and EU have some same list of problems at the US broadly speaking, and then have some addition. We stimulus. We did a lock in New world stimulus. They're stuck in the old world. Isn't that simple? Well, in some sense, fiscal policy is certainly very different. In the US. It was much more aggressive than what it was in the UK and Europe, and in that sense, all the rules that in particular the growth constability plaque in Europe but also in the UK have certainly played a very critical role in why fiscal policy has been very different in the UK relative to the US. The fiscal policy will be more expensive than perhaps some people would say given where rates are. That's what we saw from Germany and the recent prognostications over there. Do you think auctions matter? I do think auctions matter a lot. And as you know, as you just talked about two year, three year, a five years and seven year this week is very important. And if you go also and look at the auction sizes over the last several months, they have gone up and as they continue to go up. The risk really here is that short rates may eventually come down, but we may have a steepener because long rates may potentially not come down as much because now we are dealing with this supply issue that potentially to put up what pressure and limit how much of a time we can get in loong rates. Let's revisit a banner from two hours ago. Outnumbered again, Pharaoh gone slock here. Auctions matter two, No one cares one. I think we were at two before. Now I think we're at three. Yeah, you know, it's just so it's like three to one is how we're going to take that matter. It depends if you care. I care auction a few weeks ago with a matter quite alone, Yes, exactly. Thank you doctor, Please of the tursen go away at least till next week by Steve Schwartzman of course Blackstone. Steve, thank you. You were just on stage with the Prime Ministeryunak. How much are you putting in the UK? What are you most excited about when it comes to the UK growth. Well, we've been putting a lot of money into the UK. First of all, we're doing our headquarters building here, which is very significant size building. It will be the largest built in the Mayfair area in the last several decades. We bought two companies in the last two weeks in the United States in the UK, and you know we have a total of seventy billion pounds that's close to ninety billion dollars of investments in the UK with thirty seven thousand people working in these companies in real estate. See what stands out as the biggest strength actually for the UK. So there are many questions. There was an autumn statement we're not sure how they're going to fund some of the tax cuts if they continue down the road, and we don't know if the Conservatives are in power in twelve months. Well, the big advantages of the UK are the English language, the rule of law. They have a terrific university system, they have a great life science areas. They're the number one tourist area in Europe, which actually I found surprising, and so they have a lot of pockets of strength. They've been through a complex time politically, but if you look longer term, the rule of law in the UK is very strong. Their regulatory posture has been quite consistent over time. But we forget that these are good things and not all places in the world have them, and so I think I'm not an expert on the UK, you know, sort of laws in the sense of what they're doing politically. I think their autumn statement on balance, which was stimulative, is and necessary thing for their economy. And they have a much more open approach to immigration at the top levels of education, which is good for helping to power an economy. So I think there's some interesting things going on here. Steve, what can you tell us about private market valuations at Pe firms? So in general. Do you see LPs actually demanding more information on marks and more reporting requirements and evaluation. Is that something that's shifting. I don't see a big set of enormous concerns on that. What always happens at this stage and the cycle, you know, when you go to very high interest rates and the world sort of starts slowing down, is that deals slow down. So for l P is their biggest concern is they're not getting capital flows back that they normally were depending on. Just people aren't selling assets. These types of cycles always end and things returns to normal. It's quite interesting that, you know, we just did two deals in the UK in the last two weeks, one in the affordable in what they call social housing area, one in computer software. Both are million billion dollar, two billion dollar type deals. We're doing a number of things in the US now, some of which have been announced, some of which haven't. We just were involved with a situation in Norway that's twelve billion dollars. So the deal business is not totally in mothballs, and these things start again, and I think we're more on that side of the cycle. Although it has been you know, somewhat dreary for a year in terms, for example of real estate, I think you're raising an opportunity to stake funds ten billion. How's that going, Well, we're raising money for a European fund. Actually, we're always raising money for a lot of funds for ran scene, and you know, we're gone through a big fund raising cycle. So we have over two hundred billion dollars. It's one of the biggest pools of uninvested capital in the world and that will be deployed in due course. Interestingly, in real estate, which you just asked about, we're seeing a good deal of volume of buying things in Europe because European real estate is under pressure in large parts because interest rates were so low here for so long. Sometimes in countries they were negative, so the barring costs to own real estate were next to nothing, and now it's closer to six percent. So if you have to carry a whole portfolio that used to cost you next to nothing at six percent, they need to sell things, you know, it's necessary to just hold their other properties. And so we're seeing some very very good buys in that kind of environment because unlike most people, we have enormous capital and can buy the types of real estate that we like, whether they're data centers, whether they're warehouses, whether they're student housing, where those sectors have done very well. See what can you tell us about great? So, have you seen any redemptions in that? How's that going? It breaks greats? How do you say b r e it t you say b reat Yeah, Well, those those redemptions have gone down. You know, they're I think forty or something like that of what they were a year ago. And so that that pool of capital is actually doing quite well compared to almost all of the real estate, and so you know, we look forward to that sort of ultimately going back to a very normal kind of world. Overall. Does UK politics seem benign compared to the US, but also what we saw in the Netherlands, well, you know, commenting on politics of other countries, let alone our own, which has a sense of drama and you know sort of incredulity is outside of my remit fair Steve Schwartz with a thank you so much. As always, Steve also has to get to another meeting right here, because people are coming and going in all the corridors of course of Hampton Court Palace. John subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday, starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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Apollo Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok and Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam speak on stocks and an overview of the market for the rest of 2023 with Bloomberg's Jonathan FerroSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Torsten rejoins the podcast for an assessment of how economic conditions in the US have evolved since his prior appearance six months ago, along with a look at how the economy might progress as we head into 2024. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy in the wake of the Nov Fed meeting, the market implications of higher-for-longer, along with how to allocate your portfolio for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Armed with a PhD in economics, Torsten Slok spent several years at the OECD, doing deep dive analysis and making policy recommendations on big picture issues such as pension reform, tax systems and health care policy, before ultimately hitting Wall Street. He spent more than 15 years on the sell-side, a period that included the GFC and Pandemic and the lean rate years between them.Now a Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, Torsten is providing input on the macroeconomic backdrop and the implications for the firm's investments. Our discussion primarily considers the joint states of the economy and inflation - where we've been, where we're headed and the read through on Fed policy. On the economy, Torsten suggests that in this cycle, the transmission of changes in monetary policy to the real economy is especially lagged as both individuals and corporates have largely shielded themselves from rate increases.On inflation, Torsten describes the ebbing and flowing of goods versus services inflation. The latter, which fell sharply during the Pandemic lock-downs has re-emerged as consumers travel, stay at hotels and attend concerts. We then talk about wages, which Torsten believes the Fed sees as still too high. Moderation here is a key part of reducing service sector inflation which, in turn, is needed to reduce the overall level of inflation.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Torsten Slok. 

Daleep Singh, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Global Economist, says there's been a flight to quality as markets wade through the "fog of war." Julie Norman, UCL Centre On US Politics Co-director, says Israel faces a challenging path forward as they respond to the attacks by Hamas. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed is succeeding with their tightening and that the economy is moving towards a faster slowdown. Savita Subramanian, BofA Global Research Head of US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, says markets can rip from here and sees a 4,600 S&P by year-end. Alix Steel, Bloomberg News and Julian Lee, Bloomberg News, discuss Exxon to buy Pioneer for $60B.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR) invite you to join an online Special Briefing focusing on whether Federal Reserve moves to slow inflation may result in a recession or soft landing in coming months and how states and localities may be impacted. Our panel of experts includes Zac Jackson, Indiana budget director; Eric Kim, senior director, Fitch Ratings; Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management; Matthew Stitt, director and national lead for equitable recovery and strategic financial initiatives, PFM's Management and Budget Consulting team, and former CFO, Philadelphia City Council; and Kate Watkins, president and chief economist, Bright Fox Analytics, and former chief economist, Colorado state legislature's Legislative Council Staff. Notable Quotes: “We are seeing delinquency rates going up on credit cards, and auto loans for consumers, and we are seeing default rates going up for high yield companies that are highly leveraged, but we're still not quite seeing any significant slowdown in the broader economic data.” - Torsten Slok “Regardless of recession or not, there are some important implications for state and local governments when it comes to our revenue streams…” - Kate Watkins “Fitch's view is that state governments as a whole are in a relatively strong fiscal position because tax collections have been just extraordinary…” - Eric Kim “We took a very responsible approach when it came to using our stimulus funds in order to avoid building fiscal cliffs down the road where the state would have to supplant that one time federal money with ongoing state dollars.” - Zac Jackson “I think when cities are really thinking about their budgets, they're always trying to look ahead to take care of your core expenses, your core services...” - Matt Stitt Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The latest Federal Reserve monetary policy decision is due out this afternoon, where they're expected to hold rates steady. Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok previews the outcome. Plus, Congress now has 11 calendar days to pass a short-term measure to avert a government shutdown. Raymond James' Ed Mills discusses what's at stake. And, high prices, record mortgage rates, and low inventory are putting pressure on the housing market. Housing Wire's Logan Mohtashami explains.

Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed is stepping harder on the brakes. Earl Davis, BMO Asset Management Head of Fixed Income & Money Markets, doesn't expect any Fed hikes next year. Pierre Ferragu, New Street Research Head of Global Technology Infrastructure, says China has to be very careful with what they do with Apple because China depends on Apple for many things. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head Of Fixed Income Research, says yields will probably go sideways. Anna Ashton, Eurasia Group Director China Corporate Affairs and US-China, says the China slowdown is systemic.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors are bracing for another batch of big bank earnings before the opening bell today. JMP Securities' Devin Ryan breaks down his expectations. Plus, it's been a summer of labor unrest across the country. American Enterprise Institute's James Pethokoukis explains. And, June retail sales are out this morning, offering insight into the consumer and inflation. Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok discusses what this means for the Fed.

Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says we are nowhere near the 2% inflation target.Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, is sticking with his 4,600 S&P price target but says it could be raised to 4,800. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, expects GDP growth in the US to be the slowest among the major economies. Erika Najarian, UBS Equity Research Analyst, Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance, previews US bank earnings kicking off Friday. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg News International Economics & Policy Correspondent Michael McKee and Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, discuss inflation and the US economy. Timothy Tully, CEO at Zelcore Technologies, talks about the buzz around Bitcoin ETFs. Carolyn Everson, Board Member of The Knot Worldwide, shares her thoughts about the wedding industry and women on corporate boards. And we Drive to the Close with Ryan Kelley, CIO at Hennessy Funds.Hosts: Carol Massar and Matt Miller. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The panel of experts discusses the fallout for the US economy, states, and municipalities from the recent deal to raise the federal debt ceiling. Our panel of experts includes Matt Fabian, partner, Municipal Market Analytics; Marcia Howard, executive director, Federal Funds Information for States; Annie Linskey, white house reporter, the Wall Street Journal; Vikram Rai, managing director and head of the municipal strategy group, Citigroup; and Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management. Notable Quotes: “The problem that this debt crisis identified is that talking about cutting spending has revealed a field of landmines, even for Republicans who got to office to cut spending, and find themselves now unable to… If we can't cut spending, we have to raise taxes to make up for that spending” - Matt Fabian “The way to avoid [future debt ceiling crises] is to have Congress change the law they created in the first place, that requires this debt ceiling dance every few years...” - Annie Linskey “This drama is going to play out again in 2025… Once the US debt defaults, it will set a very unhealthy precedent.” - Vikram Rai “From the financial market perspective, [the debt ceiling debate] is something that is self-inflicted, and something that obviously is creating a lot of volatility…” - Torsten Slok “While we believed that the original legislation paved the way for a very smooth process with incentives to get things done, now we've come to believe that recent developments have unraveled that agreement, and that the months ahead are going to be very perilous, complicated, and politically fraught.” - Marcia Howard Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Listen to Head of Infrastructure Dylan Foo and Chief Economist Dr. Torsten Slok discuss investing opportunities in infrastructure amid stubbornly high inflation and higher rates. From digital and energy transitions to inflation hedging, bid-ask spreads, deal flow, and much more. Dylan and Torsten cover a lot of ground in this episode of The View from Apollo podcast.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, shares his thoughts on the US economy and the threat of a recession. Lisa Osborne Ross, US CEO at Edelman, provides the details of the communication firm's Trust Barometer report on Business & Racial Justice. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Aerospace Reporter Julie Johnsson talk about Julie's Businessweek Magazine story Boeing's China Struggles Ease as Plane Shortage Stokes Demand. And we Drive to the Close with Aaron Kennon, CEO at Clear Harbor Asset Management. Hosts: Matt Miller and Katie Greifeld. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to Co-Head of Private Equity Matt Nord and Chief Economist Dr. Torsten Slok discuss the current private equity investment landscape and how capital markets dislocations have helped create an attractive entry point into the asset class.

Our conversation examines the macroeconomic environment in the wake of the banking crisis and how conditions might evolve over the course of 2023, including the path forward for monetary policy. We also discuss the investment implications of recent developments and how to consider positioning your portfolio. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week, Phil and special guest Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, Inc., discuss inflation, recession potential, and overall market dynamics. What will it take to get the Fed to pivot on rates? Tune in for this not-to-miss episode!

Stocks surged in the final hour of trading, sending all averages higher for the quarter. Jefferies' David Zervos and Richard Bernstein Advisors' Rich Bernstein talk how to position heading into Q2. Plus, Evercore Head of Technical Analysis Rich Ross lays out the technical case for more upside ahead in tech stocks. We also get top picks in industrials from RBC Capital Market's Deane Dray and in space stocks from BofA Securities' Ron Epstein while Apollo Global's Torsten Slok on weigh investors shouldn't think the banking crisis is completely behind us. Our Kristina Partsinevelos digs into Micron's wild week. 

Listen to Chief Economist Dr. Torsten Slok and Co-Head of Global Performing Credit business Jim Vanek discuss the state of private credit markets, current opportunities, and the outlook for the asset class.

Torsten Slok had been firmly in the “no landing” camp of economists. More positive than a “soft landing,” its adherents say the Federal Reserve will tame inflation without triggering a recession at all. But for Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management, that all changed with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Now he's bracing for a “hard landing.” Slok joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the sizeable role regional banks play in the US economy, and the reasons why SVB's collapse changed his outlook. A big reason is how regional banks may now change their behavior.“Regional banks make up 30% of assets and roughly 40% of all lending,” he explains. That big chunk of the US banking sector is now looking at what happened to SVB and worrying what comes next. With a slowdown potentially underway thanks to the central bank's rate hikes, Slok warns a reluctance to lend by SVB's mid-size brethren might mean it comes “faster simply because of this banking situation.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode Drew and Tim interview Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo. They discuss what a no-landing economic scenario would look like, employment numbers, the struggle to get inflation down to 2%, the housing market and how demographics will affect future growth prospects. WealthVest – based in Bozeman, MT, and San Francisco, CA – is a financial services marketing and distribution firm specializing in fixed and fixed index annuities from many high-quality insurance companies. WealthVest provides the tools, resources, practice management support, and products that financial professionals need to provide their clients a predictable retirement that has their best interest in mind.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Tim PierottiAlbum Artwork: Sam YarboroughShow Editing and Production: Tavin DavisDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. Investment and investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apollo's Torsten Slok reveals the biggest labor challenge facing the Fed that no one is talking about. The action, the story, the trade on Caterpillar, NXP, and McDonald's ahead of earnings. And Carter Worth called the drop in Tesla back in June, why he's getting bearish after saying to “nibble long” in December. Plus, the Super Bowl Indicator—can you trust it?

Learn what's in store for 2023 – Torsten Slok, Apollo's Chief Economist, and Pallas Capital's investment team discuss inflation, capital markets, and the economy.