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RNZ: Afternoons with Jesse Mulligan

It's been a big week for the endangered critters of Aotearoa New Zealand with the announcement of this year's Bird of the Year winner, the Karearea New Zealand Falcon. Forest and Bird Chief Executive Nicola Toki joins Jesse to talk about the Karearea and as usual everything and anything else that springs to mind.

Economy Watch
Markets yet to acknowledge toxic risks

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2025 5:43


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US faces a federal government shutdown as markets start to realise Trump has no problem being reckless and has no problem hurting his 'friends'..But first, there was another Pulse dairy auction overnight. And that brought marginally weaker prices for both SMP and WMP, down a bit less than -0.5% in USD terms. In fact these prices are now at their lowest level of 2025. But because the NZD is falling, the prices achieved actually rose about the same amount in local currency.In the US, the number of job openings in August were virtually unchanged from July at 7.2 mln as was expected.But the Chicago PMI fell again in September, well below market expectations that it would improve. And the dip was sharp, the most in three months.Also weaker was the Dallas Fed services sector with their retail sector retreating rather fast in an unusual move lower.Adding to the downbeat sentiment was the September report from the Conference Board showing consumers are glummer than at any time since the start of the year. A common theme in the survey responses is the impact of rising inflation.And the downbeat sentiment may well get worse, and quickly. The White House seems to relish a full government shutdown to start their fiscal year tomorrow with mass firings rather than furloughs. And Trump says some American cities he considers dangerous should become training grounds for American troops, proposing 'his' troops be used to fight other Americans in their home cities. It is getting toxic very fast there.For their economy, there is a real possibility now that this weekend's non-farm payrolls release will be cancelled because the department releasing it will be closed. If that turns out to be the case, it could mask some quite weak results. Analysts now expect less than a +50,000 gain.Financial markets are downplaying the risks of all this, mainly because there have been many 'shutdown' crises over the decades. But at least the earlier ones involved parties prepared to reach a deal. Maybe not this time.Across the Pacific in China, their official factory PMI contracted again. But even though it is the sixth straight monthly contraction, the pace of decline was the least in that time. (Their factory PMI rose in February and March, but only by marginal levels.) Their official services PMI for September is no longer expanding. These official PMIs have been more conservative than the private surveys (RatingDog, ex Caixin) probably because they have a heavier weighting to Chinese SOEs. The private ones are more attuned to private and foreign enterprises, surveyed by S&P Global, and they report a faster expanding factory sector, and solidly expanding services sector.Meanwhile, China has frozen imports of BHP iron ore in a pricing dispute. BHP is their third largest supplier after Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale.Taiwanese consumer sentiment rose in September, but to be fair the bar is low because it has been stunted since May.In Europe, Germany said their CPI inflation edged up to 2.4% in September, marginally above the August level. But ist was a rise that was slightly more than expected.In Australia, there were no surprises from their central bank which held its cash rate target at 3.6%. But even though this hold was all priced in, there was some surprising reaction in financial markets. Somehow the decision was regarded as 'hawkish' and the AUD rose and benchmark bond interest rates fell on the news. The strong currency remained although the bond move was later reversed. Air cargo volumes in August grew +4.1% globally, driven by a near +10% rise from a year ago in the Asia/Pacific region. But notably, North American air cargo volumes fell -2.1% on the same basis in August, the weakest global region. And the pattern was similar for passenger travel. Asia/Pacific and Latin America brought strong growth, underpinning a +4.6% expansion, but North America lagged here too, only up +0.5% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3846/oz, up +US$16 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is -50 USc softer however.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl and down more than -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -30 bps at 87.6 AUc and a new three year low. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,876 and down -0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Washington hot mess stunts US

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2025 4:25


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news gold is soaring on US missteps, and oil is falling as demand falters while supply is rising fast.Overnight US data was mixed. August pending home sales came in a little better than expected, up +4.0% from July, but only up +3.8% from year ago levels which themselves were relatively stunted. Less than 20% of American realtors expect the next three months to improve.But the Dallas Fed factory survey reported a sharpish turn lower, a second consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. But they still have growth, just far less. New orders dipped again. Costs continue to rise faster than selling prices.The chances of a US federal government shutdown are rising with compromise no longer in anyone's vocabulary. Trump thinks no-one will blame him for his intransigence.And apparently, the next US tariff target is movie production - something both Australian and New Zealand creative industries will look at with trepidation.Singapore reported their producer prices rose. They grew by +1.1% in August from a year ago, after a -2.4% drop in the previous month. And this was their first producer price inflation since March 2025.Later today, China will release its August PMI data, the key releases before their Golden Week holiday break that starts tomorrow.In India, industrial production rose +4.0% in August from a year ago, slowing slightly from the upwardly revised 4.3% growth rate in July, but less than the expected +5% increase. Still, the result continued a reasonable first half of the year, showing that initial tariffs by the Americans did not have a significant immediate impact on their industrial activity.But today's big news will be the RBA's upcoming rate review. Analysts expect no change at 3.6%. Financial markets are of the same view with nothing priced in to secondary market wholesale rates. But the RBA will be weighing the impact of relatively strong labour markets, good economic growth, low budget deficits and a strong fiscal impulse, along with rising CPI inflation touching 3.0% in August. Waiting could leave them with a harder-to-control inflation problem, although to be fair, no-one expects a rise today even if many think it would be warranted and wise.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, down -5 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3830/oz, up +US$72 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver had yet another big spurt, now almost at US$47/oz. This latest surge puts the US gold stockpile at Fort Knox and the NY Fed now worth more than US$1 tln.American oil prices are down a sharpish -US$2 at just over US$63/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$67.50/bbl. With global demand wavering, the planned OPEC increase, plus the resumption of Iraqi oil from their Kurdistan region has traders talking about a glut.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 57.8 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -25 bps at 87.9 AUc and that is the lowest in three years. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,795 and up +3.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at under +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
US economic stresses rising

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2025 7:10


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news even the giant American economy can't seem to maintain its momentum, with Trump grabbing at all the levers of government. He is even taking government domain names and inserting is personal interests. It will become increasingly hard to separate real American economic data from that skewed by his army of MAGA blackshirts who have been inserted into these agencies.The week ahead will be busy, with major economic releases that will culminate with the US September non-farm payrolls report and related labour market data. Ordinarily they impact the policy path for the Fed this year. Markets currently expect jobs growth of less than +50,000 and settling in to a low trajectory. Before that we will get the ADP private employment report (expect even less), results from the JOLTS report, and Challenger job cuts (a big jump is expected by analysts).Besides labour updates, investors will also be on alert for the risk of a US government shutdown at the start of the new fiscal year on October 1The September update of the ISM PMI is due (analysts think it will be more contractionary than in August), and we will also get PMI releases from China, Canada, Brazil, South Korea, and ASEAN countries.Regionally, the RBA will be reviewing its monetary policy settings on Tuesday, and now no rate cut is expected due to rising inflation pressures, so markets expect it to stay at 3.6%. India will also be reviewing its monetary policy position late Wednesday, and no change is expected there either, keeping their rate at 5.5%.Daylight savings time has started in New Zealand of course, but not yet in Australia. So we will be 3 hours ahead of eastern Australia. But Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia do not observe daylight saving time, making it a patchwork system across their country.Over the weekend, China released August industrial profits data. After struggling all year to July to show any improvement on the equivalent month a year ago, August industrial profits rose at a good clip, up by more than +20% on the prior August's lame result. There was faster growth in the private sector while state-owned enterprises recorded a much smaller decline.And we should note that China is about to go on its 2025 national Golden Week holiday which will run from Wednesday, October 1st to Wednesday, October 8th, an extended eight-day holiday that combines National Day with the Mid-Autumn Festival. This is a major time for domestic and international travel, resulting in busy transportation and tourist activity. Businesses largely suspend their operations in this time but key government departments do operate.Over the weekend, Singapore released industrial production data delivering a large negative surprise. This activity was down a massive -7.8% in August from a year ago. The month-on-month data was sharply negative too. It was largely driven by very big drops in the electronics and biomedical sectors and caught analysts very much by surprise.And over the weekend in the world's largest economy, they released personal income and spending data for August which came in pretty much as anticipated. Personal disposable income rose +0.4% in the month and personal consumption expenditure rose +0.6% on the same basis - all from the prior month. But if you think about it, these are actually fast annualised rises, with costs rising much faster than incomes.This same data shows incomes were up +1.9% from a year ago, consumption up 2.7% on that year-ago basis. And as we noted, recent changes are rising faster than these annual shifts. The Fed will have noticed, as PCE inflation is now running well over 3% and its fastest since February. Goods inflation is 4.2% with durable goods up +5.2% in a year in this data. Clearly the tariff-tax effect is not transitory.The updated September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for the US was revised slightly lower to be -21% lower than a year ago. Consumers surveyed continue to express frustration over persistently high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning to surveyors that high prices are eroding their personal finances. And they say they expect inflation to be +4.7% higher in a year's time - interestingly similar to the current goods inflation data.Markets are going to have to accept that inflation is being structurally embedded at above target levels and that the prospect of more rate cuts is receding if the Fed is to have any credibility with an inflation-fighting mandate. Financial markets have priced in one -25 bps rate cut this year, two by the end of January 2026. Politics may deliver them but it will be at the expense of inflation - which is clearly rising again and quite fast.And the US has also arbitrarily decided to impose new tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, adding to the costs their consumers will have to pay, either via import duties or from new facilities to be built locally. If it goes as Trump plans, the excess capacity internationally (after removing production for the US) will cause international prices to fall as US prices rise. Lose-lose for Americans, win-win for international consumers.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, little-changed from Saturday to be up +5 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at US$3759/oz, down -US$14 from Saturday. That is up +US$78 from a week ago. Silver had another big spurt over the weekend, now up over US$46/oz, a weekly gain of +US$3.American oil prices are down -50 USc at just over US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 57.7 USc and down -10 bps from Saturday, and down -80 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.2 AUc but down -60 bps for the week. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.2, similar to Saturday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,271 and up +0.6% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at under +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

RNZ: Afternoons with Jesse Mulligan
A-Zof Aotearoa: Inventions

RNZ: Afternoons with Jesse Mulligan

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2025 24:40


From the 40-hour working week and Daylight Savings time, Jet Boats, and the whistle, all the way through to splitting the atom and creating the virtual cow fence... The history of inventing runs deep here in Aotearoa New Zealand. So deep that we even have a name for it - The Number 8 Wire mentality. To learn more about our inventive history David Downs joined Jesse. David is the author of two books on Kiwi inventions - Number 8 Re-wired, and Number 8 Re-charged.

Economy Watch
Markets recoil with scepticism

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2025 5:16


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that currency markets, bond markets and equity markets all react to unexpectedly 'strong' US data releases overnight, much of it sceptical. In fact we are getting rising risk aversion questioning its believability.US initial jobless claims came in last week at just over 180,000, and less than expected, and less than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.728 mln people on these benefits, but still +100,000 more than at the same time last year.And new orders for manufactured durable goods rose marginally in August from July, following two consecutive monthly decreases. That puts them a good +5.4% higher than year-ago levels. But non-defence, non-aircraft capital goods orders were low in the month, up just +1.6% from a year ago and it seems clear boardrooms are not enthusiastic investors at this point.This data is far more positive than the regional Fed factory survey are picking up, so we will need to wait before we conclude reshoring is actually happening.The September factory survey from the Kansas City Fed described only very modest changes in factories in their region. Order backlogs reduced as did new orders for export.In fact, US exports fell -1.4% in August in updated trade data, while imports fell -5.6%. That narrowed their trade deficit but only to the level it was in June, and not materially different to August a year ago. So it is hard to see much 'progress' here in shrinking this.But, the final US GDP result for the June quarter came in with a huge revision higher, up +3.8% from a year ago. This was apparently driven by a decrease in imports, and an increase in consumer spending, offset by decreases in investment and exports. There was a one-off revision to the consumer spending data in this release which twisted things somewhat. Again, this data is hard to reconcile with the real-time high-frequency data that we saw in the second quarter, but this is what they are reporting.If the Fed accepts this GDP data, rate cuts there are likely pushed further away.Meanwhile, August data on existing home sales dipped in August.In Canada, they reported average weekly earnings for July and they were up +3.3% to C$1,308 from a year ago, following a +3.6% increase in June.And staying in Canada, their federal government has instructed Canada Post to end door-to-door postal delivery.In China, the yuan has appreciated to the highest level in nearly 10 months against the American dollar as concerns over frictions between the world's two largest economies subside and China's economic growth prospects remain steady.In Taiwan, after four consecutive months of decreases, their reported retail sales that rose in August from a year ago. This data is modest compared to their booming industrial sector as we noted yesterday.And perhaps we should note that the Swiss central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0% in an overnight review. Switzerland has inflation running at just +0.2% pa.Container freight rates fell faster last week, down -8% for the week to be a massive -55% lower than year-ago levels. And it was again outbound rates from China that is driving this retreat. But bulk freight rates actually rose again last week by +2.9% to be +10.5% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3739/oz, up just +US$6 from yesterday. Silver is on the mover however, up approaching US$45/oz.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price still just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.6 USc and down another -50 bps from yesterday and that is its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are down just -10 bps at 88.2 AUc and near a three-year low. Against the euro we are actually unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.2, and down another -30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,928 and down -4.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just over +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

RNZ: At The Movies
Review: Prime Minister

RNZ: At The Movies

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 24, 2025 6:49


Prime Minister is the story of Jacinda Ardern's eventful five years leading Aotearoa New Zealand. With previously unseen footage shot by Ardern's partner Clarke Gayford, it's not just a biopic of a fascinating political figure, but it shows this country at its best and its worst. Directed by American Lindsay Utz (Billie Eilish: The World's A Little Blurry) and Kiwi Michelle Walshe (Chasing Great). Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Economy Watch
America turns economically brittle on Trump corrosion

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 24, 2025 5:20


Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are less than a week away from another potential US federal government funding shutdown.But first up today, we can report American August data for new home sales has surprised everyone and jumped a very sharp +20% from July to an annualised rate of 800,000. Few saw this coming. Analysts say sharp discounting and widespread promotional offers are behind the twist because the unsold inventories were mounting. But the gains were widespread especially in the Northeast (+72%). Or it could just be rogue data.And that is because we had not seen any recent trend in rising mortgage application levels to support such a big August jump. In fact last week's application levels were dominated by refinance activity, not new home purchase applications. The discrepancy between the two data releases is a curiosity.There was another well-supported US Treasury bond auction earlier today, this one for their 5-year Note. The median yield came in at 3.65%, little-changed from the 3.67% at the prior equivalent event.Taiwanese industrial production rose in August by +14.4% from a year ago, slowing from an upwardly revised +18.7% gain in the previous month. Taiwan seems to deliver a never-ending stream of double-digit economic advances. It has to be the world's most impressive economy at present.Hong Kong has now shifted to clean-up mode now that Super-Typhoon Ragasa has moved on. There is a lot to restore. It has made landfall in southern China now, where 2 mln people have been evacuated. Ragasa is 2025's largest storm globally and is the largest since the all-time records set by Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, the most powerful tropical cyclones ever recorded. (Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are all the same, just named differently based on where they develop from.)Moving on, yesterday's release of the August monthly CPI indicator series in Australia shows that inflations pressures are still alive - and rising. They came in at 3.0%, the most in more than a year. But they have a 1-3% target range so it is technically within that range. The trajectory will worry the RBA all the same. And financial markets have pushed back their expectations of when the RBA will cut rates next.In Indonesia, the combination of an accident at a major copper mine that has closed it completely, and in Peru, a closure over a tough political dispute, has seen copper prices jump overnight.In Russia, that are raising their GST to 22% to pay for their war on Ukraine.In the US, attention is twisting back to lending, liquidity and credit-rating standards as two major financials collapse in a reprise of the GFC sub-prime mistakes. Both Tricolor (a Texas car loan lender) and First Brands (a car parts maker) recently had good credit ratings confirmed.And tariffs, rising joblessness, and weird public policy make the globally important US economy unusually vulnerable at present. So we should note that a US Federal Government shutdown seems on the cards as Trump seems not to care. One of these types of events could trigger something to seriously unnerve financial markets - the US not paying its bills could be it (and is unlikely to be seen as "just another Trump bankruptcy".)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up +3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3733/oz, down -US$48 from yesterday. Silver was lower too and now under US$44/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1.50 at just under US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc and down -50 bps from yesterday and that is its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are also down -50 bps at 88.3 AUc and near a three-year low. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.5, and down another -30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113.858 and up +1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just over +/- 1.1%.Today, all eyes will be on the big Fonterra announcements, which are expected to be very positive. Join us for our coverage that will start with their NZX market releases soon.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
US business activity slows

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2025 5:21


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the latest data shows American business activity slowing further.But first up this morning we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse event brought little-change to either the ASMP or WMP prices. This is as expected for SMP but 'better' than expected for WMP. In NZD however there was a rise because the Kiwi dollar fell. All eyes are now on tomorrows Fonterra annual report.There were also no surprises in the S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US for September. Both their flash factory and services PMI reading eased slightly, but are not contracting. Growth may be slowing, but selling price inflation is cooling too. The report noted weak new order growth and tariff-taxes were widely cited as the main cause of sharply higher costs, but the weaker demand and stiff competition reportedly limited the scope to raise selling prices,And that is confirmed in the Richmond Fed factory survey which turned down sharply in September. New order levels were weak, cost pressures strong. Services in the same mid-Atlantic area were not very positive either.There was another very large US Treasury 2yr Note auction today, one that saw another pull-back in overall support although the coverage remains strong. The median yield dipped to 3.52% from 3.60% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In China, Nikkei has found that retail consumer loans are going bad faster, the latest headache for Chinese lenders already plagued by the country's real estate problems. And it comes just when the government aims to stimulate consumption through increased consumer debt backed up by more public borrowings. Nikkei Asia combed through the latest interim disclosures by mainland banks listed in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong and found that nonperforming personal loans rose at a faster pace than those in the real estate sector during the first half of the year.Overnight, Taiwan reported yet another outstandingly good export orders data, again exceeding the expected very good expansion.Super Typhoon Ragasa is expected to hit Hong Kong today, and they are still expecting up to a 5m storm surge (above chart datum). But the eye of the storm is passing slightly south, so it will affect large parts of southern China.India's PMI's were again very expansionary in September for both their services and factory sectors. No signs of cooling in this market.In Europe, their PMIs continue with a modest expansion, even if it is their best in 16 months. But new order levels are only holding, not growing. And the factory sector is now not expanding.And the Swedes delivered a surprise cut to their policy rate, down -25 bps to 1.75%. They cited geopolitical tensions and uncertain US trade policy as the reasons for the move now even though they are experiencing good current growth with inflation up at 3.2% when 2% is their target.In Australia, their PMI's reveal a pullback in September but both sectors are still expanding.Globally, the OECD reported that the global economy was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, but downside risks loom large as higher barriers to trade and geopolitical and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity in many economies. New Zealand doesn't feature in this report, but is sees Australian growth rising, Chinese growth holding at a reasonably good level, and US growth halving to a weak level by 2026.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3781/oz, up another +US$45 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver was little-changed but still up over US$44/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 88.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.7, down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,974 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Eye of the storm

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2025 4:23


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Super Typhoon Ragasa aims for a direct hit on southern China.But first up, we can report that the US National Activity Index as collated by the Chicago Fed, was less negative in August, extending the negative trend to five consecutive months. But the July data was revised lower.There were Fed speakers out overnight. Miran made the lone case in favour of Trump's big slash, whereas Hammack, Barkin, Williams, Musalem, and earlier Daly, all made the case for eyeing inflation risks as well as jobs risks.In Canada, their producer prices rose faster, now up +4.0% from a year ago, largely on the impacts of the US tariff-taxes where Canadian substituted other components than American ones. But beef prices are a notable riser in this latest data.The People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged at record lows for the fourth straight month yesterday, as expected. The 1-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0%, while the 5-year benchmark stayed at 3.5%.In China, they said they will limit the steel industry's growth to 4% over the next two years to deal with their severe over-capacity problem and force companies to invest in quality rather than volume gains.And the fast growing rail land-bridge from China to Europe is closing, essentially because the Poland-Belarus border is being sealed to guard against Russian infiltration. It is hard to see Beijing being happy about that.Hong Kong authorities are bracing for “serious threats” posed by the looming Super Typhoon Ragasa, which is expected to bring hurricane-force winds with speeds of up to 220 km/h over the next few days, potentially breaking a record set during Saola in 2023. Their airport is likely to close, along with much else including their stock market. And mass evacuations have started in neighbouring Shenzhen.This is what the Hong Kong official met service warned late last night. "Under the influence of significant storm surge, there will be a rise in water level of about 2 metres over coastal areas of Hong Kong in the morning of Wednesday. The maximum water level can generally reach around 3.5 to 4 metres above chart datum, and the water level at Tolo Harbour may even reach 4 to 5 metres above chart datum. Members of the public should take appropriate precautions." A 5 metre storm surge seems pretty significant.In Europe, and despite political and tariff uncertainties, consumer sentiment 'rose' (that is, got less bad) in September, probably because both inflation and borrowing costs eased in the past month.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3736/oz, up +US$52 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver had another +US$1 spurt overnight, now up over US$44/oz to a 14 year high.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price still just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.7 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are still just under 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.9, uo +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,448 and down -2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

95bFM: The Wire
The International Community's Support for Palestinian Statehood and how Aotearoa New Zealand fits in w/ The University of Otago's Robert Patman

95bFM: The Wire

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2025


Foreign Minister Winston Peters has headed to New York for a conference on a Two State solution in the middle east, where debate over Palestinian recognition and statehood will take place during the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. As countries like Australia and Canada pledge support for Palestinian Statehood, alongside other countries that have either expressed intent or already done so, Peters has remained closed off as to whether or not New Zealand will join these ranks. Monday Wire Producer Alex spoke to the Professor of International Relations at the University of Otago, Robert Patman, about what these expressions of support for Palestinian Statehood mean in the long run, and what we can and should expect from Peters and the Government in this regard.

scigest - Plant & Food Research podcast
Nature, hunger and food waste with Iain Lees-Galloway (PPF)

scigest - Plant & Food Research podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2025


Feed people, not landfill. Around 30% of food grown for human consumption never gets eaten, yet thousands still go hungry. What role does food rescue play in resolving the conundrum of providing healthy, enjoyable, affordable nutrition within Planetary Boundaries? In this episode host Roger Robson-Williams chats with Iain Lees-Galloway, the General Manager of the Aotearoa Food Rescue Alliance. They discuss the relationship between humans and the environment, and they celebrate the work of volunteers across Aotearoa New Zealand who are making a difference for people struggling to put food on the table — a win for hungry kids and a win for the planet. 

Economy Watch
Who is foretelling our economic future? the equity or bond market?

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2025 5:45


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are likely to get a lesson this week reconfirming that equity markets all look for short-term profit hits and are now setting prices on these short-term factors. But bond markets are much more focused on risks 10-30 years ahead and their signals are diverging markedly.This coming week however will largely feature reactions to last week's big events - the US Fed positioning and rate cut, and the awful NZ Q2-2025 GDP data.Here we will be watching for more fallout from that, after the NZD got marked down sharply. Will markets assess that the June result will be repeated in Q3? After all we are now only nine days from the end of Q3 and the appearance of 'better data' has been sparse and perhaps only in the last week or so. And on Thursday we will get an update of household net worth, but it will be year-old data. Much more current will be Thursday's results announcement from Fonterra.In Australia, they will also release household net worth data, on Friday, but for March this year. They will get PMI updates as well.Globally, the focus will briefly turn to New York for what is expected to be a turbulent moment for the UN with the US already barring some leaders from attending. New York time as the home of the General Assembly may be coming to an end.But economically, there will be many PMI updates out this week. The US will release its PCE data and another Q2-GDP update. And Fed speakers will all be out giving context to last week's rate cut decision. Switzerland and Sweden will be among those reviewing their policy interest rates. And later today, China will review its Loan Prime rates, although no change is expected.China released its August year-to-date foreign direct investment data over the weekend. They said they only attracted ¥507 bln in net foreign investment in those eight months. They said they attracted ¥467 bln in the seven months to July. So that means they gained a net +¥39 bln in August alone and that is a very low +US$5.5 bln and that is only one third of the August 2024 gain. Basically foreign direct investment into China from all sources is close to dead in the water.This doesn't mean that China's economic expansion won't be good in 2025 (over +5%). But it does point out how the two big powers are isolating themselves, with cross-border investment and economic connections all retreating.A recent example is that China's new iron ore buying monopoly has moved to shut out a key Australian blend from BHP. They have other options and are using their heft to try and bring BHP and Australia into line.Separately, Japan's inflation eased to 2.7% in August from 3.1% in July, the level since October 2024. There was a notable slowing in the rise in rice prices, enabling food price inflation to ease to 'only' 7.2% in August from a year ago. Overall prices were up +0.8% in the month with food prices up just +0.3% for the month.Japan's central bank announced the results of its policy rate review late on Friday and as expected left it unchanged at 0.5% at Friday's. This came amid the political uncertainty around the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba. They also said that it will sell its holdings of exchange-traded funds and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) to the market. Here is their decision.Germany said its producer prices fell an outsized -2.2% in August from a year ago, a deflation sign they will not welcome and extends their deflationary pressure that started in July 2023. But most of that is coming from the lower cost of imported energy with local producer prices basically unchanged.Canada said its August retail sales rose +1%, more than offsetting its July dip. But it isn't clear how much of that is inflation related. But financial markets reacted positively, seeing consumer 'resilience' in the data. (One more -25 bps rate cut is expected in Canada before the end of the year.)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, up +1 bp from Saturday to be up +7 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3684/oz, up +US$3 from Saturday. That is up +US$36 from a week ago. Silver had another spurt over the weekend, now up over US$43/oz, a weekly gain of +US$1.American oil prices are little-changed at just over US$62.50/bbl and back to where they were a week ago, with the international Brent price still just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday although down a full -1c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are just under 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.8, unchanged from Saturday but down -100 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,509 and very little-changed from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just under +/- 0.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Duncan Garner - Editor-In-Chief
Radical Rhetoric or Call to Action? Te Pāti Māori's Controversial Message

Duncan Garner - Editor-In-Chief

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2025 9:59


“perhaps the most disturbing comments yet” from Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi. Garner examines a recent social media post by Waititi that condemns the British Crown and colonial legacy in Aotearoa New Zealand, accusing it of global white supremacy, genocide, and continued indigenous oppression.Garner questions the implications of such rhetoric:Is this a genuine political stance or a dangerous radicalization of young Māori?Can Te Pāti Māori realistically be part of any future government with this level of polarizing language?What does this mean for race relations and social cohesion in New Zealand?Get in touch with Duncan - duncan@rova.nz and join us on the socials. Website: https://www.rova.nz/podcasts/duncan-garner-editor-in-chief-live Instagram: @DuncanGarnerpodcast TikTok: @DuncanGarnerpodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Economy Watch
The NZD is hammered

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2025 4:54


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the New Zealand dollar has been re-rated sharply lower overnight, although to be fair only back to levels it was at in April. US benchmark interest rates are rising but the new weaker New Zealand economy is expected to drive the OCR lower than earlier expected.But first in the US, initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at +194,500, a decrease of 10,400 from the prior week when an increase of about that was indicated by seasonal factors. There are now 1.75 mln people on these benefits, +81,000 more than at this time last year.Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) retreated in August. A retreat was expected but it came in more than twice the expected decline. That means the LEI fell by -2.8% over the six months between February and August, a faster rate of decline than its -0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period. They noted persistently weak manufacturing new order levels and consumer expectations, and warn of increased headwinds ahead.But it is not weak everywhere. The Philly Fed factory survey for September picked up a modest rise in new orders. But firms in the region remain under sharp price pressure unable to pass on the higher prices they are paying.On the farm, the giant American soybean crop is about ready for harvest, and farmers are glum. The Chinese aren't buying and the Washington isn't coming to the rescue with subsidy support. Prices are back to 2016-2018 levels and the rural concern is palpable.In Financial markets, there was a notable less well-supported US Treasury inflation protected (TIPS) bond tender today that resulted in a median yield of 1.65% plus CPI inflation, compared to 1.93% plus CPI at the prior equivalent event three months ago.There were more central bank rate reviews overnight. Taiwan kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.0%. They have an inflation target of 2.0% and their CPI is currently running at 1.6%. Norway cut theirs by -25 bps to 4.0% in what has been called a "hawkish cut". They have inflation at 3.0% with their target at 2.0%. And the Bank of England held theirs at 4% as expected. They have inflation at inflation at 3.8% when their target is 2%. South Africa held at 7%. Inflation there is 3.3% with a preferred rate of 3.0%.China announced that its Boeing and Airbus-competing C919 aircraft has now received more than 1000 orders, mostly domestic but some international orders as well.Australian labour markets stumbled somewhat in August, falling -5,400 when a small +22,000 rise was expected. And the detail is even less positive because full-time employment fell by -40,900 to 10,077,300 people while part-time employment rose by +35,500 to 4,549,200 people. None of these changes were enough to materially change their 4.2% unemployment rate.Container freight rates fell -6% last week from the prior week with all the weakness coming from outbound rates from China. But bulk freight rates rose +3.4% last week to be +14.6% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time in a steady rise. The price of gold will start today at US$3,643/oz, down -US$15 from yesterday's post Fed dip.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.8 USc and down -90 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -70 bps at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66, down -50 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,553 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Economy Watch
A Fed rate cut, but also rising imposed uncertainty

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2025 4:41


Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are struggling to make sense of the US Fed's latest rate cut rationale, one that looks infused with new White House politics.First up this morning, the US central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% as expected, despite noting that American inflation is "somewhat elevated". It is their first reduction in borrowing costs since December 2024.They said they saw economic activity moderating in the first half of the year with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate edging up. But they still called their jobless rate 'low'. At the same time they noted inflation has moved up. But their economic projections showed they expect inflation over the next year to average 3.4%, higher than the latest CPI level of 2.9%.For some reason, this rising inflation, and 'low' unemployment was the basis for cutting their policy rate. Like many core US institutions, partisan politics is now infecting the Fed. Keeping the pressures under cover, the Fed's press release was unusually short this time, likely papering over the pressures being brought to bear. It looks like the only dissenter was the recent White House injected member.Financial markets have reacted however. After being lower ahead of the decisions, the S&P500 went volatile and is back, tracking slightly lower. The bond market also went volatile, and changed its course to push yields higher. The USD fell and the dollar index (DXY) is now at its lowest level since February 2022. Gold pushed up to a new record high - and then fell back. None of these reactions show confidence in the Trump pressures on the Fed.Meanwhile, US mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, a week that included the US Labor Day holiday. Mortgage interest rates dipped -10 bps in the week and borrowers who need to refinance rushed the opportunity. But new borrowing not so much.However, American housing starts tumbled uncomfortably in August, down far more than was anticipated to be -8.5% below July levels, and -6.0% lower than year-ago levels. New house building consents came in -11.1% below year ago levels, so it is unlikely their housebuilding industry will recover any time soon.Overnight, Canada also reviewed its policy interest rate overnight and cut them too, largely as expected. That takes their key rate to 2.5%. They see a weakening in the resilience first shown by Canadian reactions to their bullying from their southern neighbour. They are watching Canadian consumers and businesses becoming more 'cautious'.In Australia later today, we will get the August labour market report where another small gain in jobs is anticipated (+22,000) and their jobless rate is expected to hold at 4.2%.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time after some bumpy volatility.The price of gold will start today at US$3,658/oz, down -US$29 from yesterday post the Fed.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$64.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59.7 USc and down -25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -5 bps at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.5, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,997 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just under +/- 0.8%.Join us at 10:45am this morning for full coverage of the New Zealand Q2-2025 GDP result. Financial markets are expecting a -0.3% dip from Q1 and no year-on-year economic expansion.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Signaled rate cuts locked in

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2025 4:27


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets now universally expect the American central bank to cut rates tomorrow by -25 bps.But today, the overnight dairy auction brought a much better result than expected with the declines for both WMP and SMP nowhere near as sharp as indicated by the earlier derivatives pricing. That will very much ease the pressure on any farm gate payout forecasts. The detail is interesting. There was notably softer demand from China for WMP, but that was countered by stronger SE Asian demand. Cheddar cheese prices rose because of some unexpected demand from North America, But mozzarella prices dived -9.6% on weak Chinese demand. Overall prices slipped just -0.8% in USD, but there were down a sharpish -2.9% in NZD as the greenback took a tumble overnight.Meanwhile, US retail sales rose in August and by a little more than expected. They were up +5.0% after a +4.1% rise in July. But this data is not inflation-adjusted in the way that other countries report. We will have to wait for sales volume data later in the month.And US industrial production rose in August too, but only up +0.1% from the prior month and only after a -0.4% revised fall in July. Year-on-year it is up +0.9%, about average for 2025, but hardly evidence of manufacturing reshoring.Homebuilder sentiment was flat in August as reported by the NAHB survey. It is remaining at the very low levels we have seen since May, and very much lower than this time last year. They are pinning their hopes on Fed rate cut(s) delivering a changed outlook.And staying in the US, crypto giant Binance looks like its lobbying and support of Trump will see the US Justice Department drop a key oversight requirement in its US$4.3 bln settlement of allegations that it didn't do enough to prevent money laundering. So, pay the money, get no oversight, and go back to enabling money laundering. A real Trump-type deal.Meanwhile, Canadian CPI inflation rose from 1.7% in July to 1.9% in August, a lesser rise than was anticipated. Meanwhile there was a rather sharp fall in housing starts there in August, down -16% from July to 245,791 units from a revised 293,537 in July and well below market expectations of 277,500. But they were still +10% higher than year-ago levels. A rate cut is coming in Canada tomorrow too.In China, there are some signs that Beijing's stimulus could be working. Steel output not only stopped falling, it actually picked up in the first two weeks of September, defying downbeat expectations. And iron ore prices rose too recently.In the EU, industrial production rose more than anticipated in July, although the expectations aren't high.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.03%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,686/oz, up +US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just over US$64.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59.9 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.7, little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$116,480 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just under +/- 0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Markets expect rate cut salve

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2025 4:58


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both the US and China are eyeing rate cuts to bolster wavering economies.While all financial market attention is on the US Fed and its Thursday rate review - and market positioning is underway relative to the expected -25 bps cut - there is other economic news being released.The New York Empire factory survey delivered a negative surprise with new order levels falling sharply when they were expected to rise. That drove their overall survey negative when an expansion was anticipated.Across the Pacific, and in an unexpected result, China's retail sales data was released and were expected to have grown faster in August by +3.8%, up from +3.7% in July. Some anticipated a +5% rise. But in the end the rise was only +3.4%, and that was an eight month low.China's August industrial production was up +5.2%, a one year low, good but less than the +5.7% in July and also less than the expected +5.8%. All this was done with only a +1.6% rise in electricity production, and -3.2% fall in the production of fossil fuels, according to these official stats.China's house prices were generally stable in August. There were a few more signs of marginally higher prices in a few more cities for new developments. But the sales prices of pre-owned housing continues its slow droop and the trend is becoming ever more embedded as pressures mount.But probably worse from China was that fixed asset investment hardly rose, up just +0.5% for the eight months from the same period a year ago. It was expected to have risen +1.4% on this ytd basis. August 2025 alone actually came in lower than August 2024, a worrying sign.It is possible that the upcoming review on China's Loan Prime Rates may be cut to bolster their wobbly economic position. These are due for official review at the weekend.In Indonesia, they launched a new US$1 bln economic stimulus package to boost economic growth as a way of stabilising widespread unease about the country's direction.Indian exports softened in August, and their imports did too and by a bit more. That meant the expected -US$30 bln trade deficit for the month was lower than in July and lower than expected.India also had good labour market news with their jobless rate falling to a record low of 5.2% when a small rise was anticipated.In Australia, their National Climate Risk Assessment was released yesterday. They are trying to prioritise and plan how they will adapt and respond. The report says that while the world is already 1.2ºC hotter than during pre-industrial times, because of its sheer land size Australia is warming faster and is 1.5ºC hotter. Australia is experiencing more intense heatwaves on land and sea, rising seas and more frequent coastal flooding. Although the usual suspects remain in denial, a surprising number are now accepting it has become an urgent issue. Insurance premiums, even availability, will be how it will affect most people in Australia.But back with the headline financial market news. Ahead of the US Fed decision, equity markets are buoyant and all-in on optimism, but bond markets are wary, the USD is wavering, and commodity prices are little changed except for precious metals.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,679/oz, up +US$38 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.7 USc and up +10 b ps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 89.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.7, little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,938 and down -0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Inflation up, jobs down. The US Fed has to choose a policy direction

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2025 5:07


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news fighting inflation may well be a downgraded objective in the face of political pressure. The consequences could be long-lasting and global.For financial markets, this week will be all about the US Fed's Thursday rate decision where now a -25 bps cut is widely anticipated, to try and weigh against the softening US labour market. The same day the Canadians will review their policy rate too where a similar -25 bps cuts is expected.And there will be central bank reviews in Japan this week (no change), Indonesia (no change), England (no change), and Brazil this week too.China will also review its key rates and no change is expected there either. And China will release a lot of August economic data too, including FDI data.Australia will release its August labour market update and a modest +25,000 rise in employment is anticipated. Our balance of payments data will be released on Wednesday (expect a larger deficit), and Q2-2025 GDP will be released on Thursday (expect a decline). And before that we will get the August REINZ data and a full dairy auction.But back in the US, the pessimistic turn continues. The widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey delivered downbeat results in September, sharply lower from August and well below what analysts had expected. They had expected a turn lower but not by this much. Declines were strongest among lower- and middle-income households because concerns grew over business conditions, jobs, and inflation. Both short and long term sentiment fell back. This index is more than -20% lower than year-ago levels.Meanwhile, year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.8% while the five-year expectations moved up for the second straight month to 3.9% from 3.5%.Canadian building consents were unchanged in July from June but down -8.2% from a year ago. But most of this was due to non-residential work; residential consents were up, especially in Toronto.We should probably note that there are trade talks going on in Madrid between the US and China.In China, August data for new yuan loans came in well below what was expected although expectations weren't high. It was the lowest amount of bank debt for an August since 2011, extending the current period of weak credit demand amid the weakening consumer debt demand and the prolonged crisis for housing. The debt appetite dropped despite central bank efforts to loosen monetary conditions and stimulate borrowing.In India, consumer inflation rose, as expected, but only to 2.1% and ending a ten month period where it fell consistently from 6.2% to 1.6% in July. Food prices were little-changed and had no effect on the overall result.In France, Fitch has downgraded their credit rating to A+ from AA- on Friday, citing political turmoil and rising debt.We should probably note that copper prices are basically back to levels they were at five years ago, which is double what they were ten years ago. At current production levels the USGS estimates that existing mines will be able to operate for the next forty years, and proven resources will last about 200 years. (But there are expected to be much larger resources yet to be discovered.) We will look at some aspect core mineral resources weekly, going forward. (H/T PDK)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, little-changed from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,641/oz, down -US$7 from Saturday. That is up +US$48 from a week ago. Silver had another spurt, now up over US$42/oz.American oil prices are unchanged at just on US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just under US$67/bbl, both up +US$1 for the week.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday but up +70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.7, little-changed from Saturday but up +50 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,666 and down -0.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just on +/- 0.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Cult of Conspiracy
Cryptid Women's Society | Nephilim Giants in the South Pacific

Cult of Conspiracy

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2025 124:07


What if the Bible's Nephilim weren't just ancient writings, but left their bones buried in Australia and New Zealand?In this Cult Edition episode, we take the story of the Nephilim giants from Genesis and track it right into the South Pacific. Reports of massive stone tools unearthed across Australia, legends of giant beings tied to Aotearoa New Zealand's earliest histories, and whispers of bones that mysteriously vanish once “authorities” step in — this isn't just folklore, it's evidence that refuses to stay buried.Are these remains proof of biblical giants who migrated across oceans, or the cultural memory of encounters our mainstream history books refuse to acknowledge? Either way, the South Pacific is holding secrets that challenge everything we're told about human origins.Don't just listen, get involved. Join the Cryptid Women's Society and step into the Truth Seeker community where women are leading the charge in uncovering what the world wants hidden. This is your invitation to stop consuming stories and start investigating them.Follow us on Instagram, Facebook & YouTube: @cryptidwomenssocietyhttps://www.instagram.com/cryptidwomenssociety/https://www.facebook.com/cryptidwomenssocietyhttps://www.youtube.com/@CryptidWomensSocietyhttps://www.tiktok.com/@cryptidwomenssocietyJoin the movement: https://cryptidwomenssociety.com/cws-join/Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/cult-of-conspiracy--5700337/support.

Economy Watch
US economic prospects turn darker

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2025 8:12


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news away from the guns and hatred consuming the US at present. Our challenge is to keep it out of our society.Markets had been waiting for the American August CPI inflation data and it came in higher, although no more than expected. It rose to 2.9% in August, the highest since January, after holding at 2.7% in both June and July. Prices rose at a faster pace for food (3.2%) and energy costs rose for the first time in seven months. On a monthly basis, the CPI went up 0.4%, the most since January, above forecasts of 0.3%. Rents rose 0.4%, the largest upward pressure. On the other hand, core inflation remained steady at 3.1%, the same as in July and at February's peak, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, matching July's pace and market forecasts.In a stable world, this level of inflation would not bring market expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, but there are widespread expectations of one anyway. And that is because their labour market is weakening quite fast now.Initial jobless claims in the US came in sharply higher last week at +263,000 s.a. a four year high and well above the expected high 235,000. In actual terms they rose +204,500 when a solid end-of-summer-holiday seasonal decrease was expected. There are now 1,815,000 on these benefits, +110,000 more that at the same time last year.Also getting much worse much faster is the US Federal government finances. The US Budget Statement was expected to hold at a very high -US$290 bln monthly deficit, but it has blown out to -US$345 bln in August. And this is after collecting US$30 bln in tariff-taxes in the month, US$165 bln so far in the fiscal year.Whatever way you look at it, the US economy is being mismanaged on a massive scale. Too much inflation, too little job creation, too large tax avoidance by the uber-wealthy, and self-imposed tariff-taxes on themselves. And unfortunately their social programs are making things worse at a fundamental level too.New independent analysis shows that the long-held view that American demographics would remain very positive to the end of the century have suddenly turned. Now US deaths will exceed births by 2031, far faster than expected. And the deaths will rise quicker until 2055 when they will match immigration. And these estimates are before the Kennedy/Trump health mistakes which will undoubtedly speed up deaths. And the Trump heavy-handed immigration crackdowns that will likely mean the immigration assumptions are far too optimistic. If demographics are destiny, the destiny of the US looks grim and we can no longer hold the assumption that it will be a major power by 2100. That is a sharp change from the demographic outlook just a few years ago.New data out in Canada shows Canadians are wealthier with an increase of over a quarter of a trillion dollars to C$17.9 tln, the seventh consecutive quarterly increase. This wealth accumulation happened despite headwinds of global trade pressures and a weakening economy. Per capita GDP is now C$76,100 (NZ$92,100).Across the Pacific in Japan's producer prices there rose +2.7% in the year to August, up from a marginally revised +2.5% increase in the previous month. This data doesn't really add stress or new factors for Japan. A year earlier their PPI rose at a 2.6% rate.In China, new vehicle sales recovered in August, up +10.1% after the unexpected -10.7% fall in July. Total vehicle sales are expected to grow +4.7% in 2025 to almost 33 mln units from 31.4 mln in 2024, with the NEV sector surging +24% to 16 mln units. That will keep it almost twice the size of the US vehicle market. China's car market is a global goliath. (The US vehicle market is running at 16.1% mln annual sales, a dip in August from July.)In Europe, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit facility at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, all as expected. Inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target, and the outlook is broadly unchanged from June. New staff projections see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, easing to 1.7% in 2026 before rising slightly to 1.9% in 2027.Occasionally we check in with what is happening in Turkey, an authoritarian regime that has made massive mistakes with capricious monetary policy moves, and is paying the price with tough consequences. The Central Bank of Turkey cut its benchmark interest rate overnight by a surprisingly large -250 bps to 40.5% in its September meeting, its lowest since 2023. The move follows signs of slowing underlying inflation in August, though food and services prices continue to pressure inflation. Domestic demand remains weak.In Australia, consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in the September survey by the Melbourne Institute, from August's five-month low of 3.9%. The increase came as stronger domestic demand raised concerns about renewed inflationary pressures, with household consumption proving resilient in Q2-2025. This is the sort of news the RBA will not welcome. No rate cut is priced in for September 30 but one is for November 4, although that might get reassessed now.Global container freight rates fell -3% last week from the prior week on very much weaker outbound rates from China to Europe. Interestingly, outbound rates from China to the USWC actually rose last week by +6%. (Year-on-year comparisons are still affected by last year's Red Sea stress.) Bulk freight rates roise +8% over the past week to be +8.5% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now on 4.00%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,635/oz, down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price is similarly lower at just on US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just over 59.7 USc and up another +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 89.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.8, unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,552 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just over +/- 0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Economy Watch
Eyes on US CPI for Fed-friendly result

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2025 6:27


Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news all eyes are now on tomorrow's US CPI release for August.But first, there was surprising news from the US. August producer prices rose far less than any analyst has forecast. In fact they fell -0.1% in August from July, following a downwardly revised +0.7% gain in July, driven by a sharp decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling as importers absorbed some of the tariff taxes. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation slowed to 2.6%, while core producer inflation eased to 2.8%. Analysts had expected the year-on-year change to be up +3.5%.Markets took these changes at face value, ignoring the "new management" at the agency compiling the data. It is being seen as "Fed-friendly" for a rate cut next week. Although to be fair far more will depend on tomorrow's CPI release where rates closer to 3% are anticipated.Also unusually positive was last week's data on US mortgage applications. They jumped +9.2% from the prior week to be +11.6% higher than year-ago levels. Driving the turnaround was a -15 bps plunge in benchmark mortgage rates, which fell to their lowest in nearly one year as a wave of pessimistic labour market data drove yields on long-dated Treasury securities to retreat. Applications for a loan to refinance a current mortgage, which are more sensitive to changes in interest rates, surged by +12.2% from the previous week to their highest level in one year. In turn, applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home rose by +6.6%.And there was another US Treasury 10 year bond auction earlier today and that resulted in a median yield of 3.99%, down from 4.20% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. But a feature of this latest event was the declining demand, down -8.5% which is a notable pullback.Across the Pacific, Japanese manufacturers are feeling bullish, especially about export prospects. The Reuters Tankan index rose to a very positive level in September, its highest level since April 2022. Easing trade uncertainties following the Japanese-US tariff deal that sharply eased the tariff rate is behind the shift. Sentiment improved across six of nine manufacturing industries surveyed.In China, they reported that consumer prices dropped -0.4% in August from a year ago, after being unchanged in the prior month and missing market expectations of a -0.2% decline. It was the fifth episode of consumer deflation this year and the sharpest drop since February. China has a similar period of deflation in the second half of 2023, but escaped those pressures in 2024. But they are back again. Food prices fell -1.2%, but beef prices were down -4.3% and lamb prices down -3.6% on that annual basis. Milk prices fell -1.4%.Meanwhile Chinese producer prices dropped -2.9% in the year to August, less than the -3.6% drop in July, which was the steepest decline since July 2023. Producer prices have now deflated for 35 consecutive month although the latest data is the smallest decline since April.Despite growing civil unrest and street demonstrations in Jakarta, Indonesian consumer sentiment was little-changed in August, although it is maintaining its recent low that started in May. However in a longer term perspective, it is +20% higher than it was a decade ago. (The last thing Canberra want to see is an unstable Indonesia as a neighbour.)Fitch Ratings has raised its world growth forecasts for 2025 moderately since the June Global Economic Outlook on better-than-expected incoming data for 2Q-2025. But there is now evidence of an underlying US slowdown in ‘hard' economic data and positive surprises on eurozone growth have partly reflected US tariff front-running, they say. Fitch still expects world GDP to slow significantly this year.Global growth is now forecast to be 2.4% in 2025, up 0.2pp since June but a sizeable slowdown from 2.9% last year and below trend. China's forecast has been raised to 4.7% from 4.2%, the Eurozone's to 1.1% from 0.8% and the US's to 1.6% from 1.5%. World growth for 2026 is 0.1pp higher at 2.3%.The UST 10yr yield is now over 4.03%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at a new high at US$3,645/oz, up +US$4 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just over US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price is similarly higher at just on US$67.50/bbl. American crude oil stocks jumped, and for a second week in a row, when declines were anticipated, indicating weaker demand than expected.The Kiwi dollar is now at just over 59.5 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.8, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,721 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, also at just over +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
US settles in to accept economic stagnation & isolation

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2025 4:47


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that rather than understating US jobs growth - which got her fired - the stats agency reporting labour market data overstated Trump's jobs growth, and by some margin.But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction earlier today for both SMP and WMP, and while prices dipped as expected, they didn't dip as much as the derivatives markets had signaled. WMP was down just -0.2% from the full auction the prior week, SMP was down -0.6%. However the firming NZD resulted in about a -1.5% fall in NZD terms.In the US, small business NFIB sentiment survey for August reported stable conditions with some issues easing, some tightening.There was a US Treasury 3yr bond auction earlier today that was well supported but less well than the prior equivalent event a month ago. It resulted in a median yield of 3.45%, down sharply from the 3.61% at that prior equivalent event. The outsized shift down likely reflects bond investor risk aversion.Although it is just a statistical adjustment, updated data shows the US economy added -911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than initially reported - the largest downward revision since at least 2000. This is a -0.6% adjustment, far more that the average change of +0.2% in total nonfarm employment over the past decade. Nearly all sectors added fewer jobs than initially estimated.If the US Fed cuts rates next week to bolster their slowing economy, it will likely signal that their are changing their inflation goal from 2% to 3%, and prepared to accept stagflation over stagnation. The risk is they get both.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders were up +8.1% in August from a year ago, largely due to a +12% surge in export orders. Export orders made up almost three quarters of this industry's order book in August.And Taiwan kept up its amazing record of export growth in August. They jumped more than +34% from a year ago and outperforming market expectations of +22% growth.In Russia, their Federal Treasury reported another deep deficit in August, the second in a row and the first time ever of back-to-back deficits exceeding -1.9% of GDP.In Australia, ANZ Group's new broom CEO Nuno Matos has kicked off a change program at the four-pillar bank with plans to shed 3,500 Australian staff.The Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey slipped on darker views about the economic outlook and less confidence about getting any more rate cuts from the RBA - because inflation is still 'too high'. Analysts had expected this survey to possibly break into net optimism in September, but it was not to be.Meanwhile the August NAB business confidence report shows it fell a minor 3 points, following four consecutive months of improving sentiment and leaves confidence also close to long run average levelsThe UST 10yr yield is now under 4.07%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at a new high at US$3,641/oz, up +US$9 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer, at just over US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price is +50 USc firmer at just on US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just over 59.3 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,080 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, also at just under +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
More US data weakness rattles bond markets

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2025 4:34


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bond markets are increasingly worried about what will transpire from the US CPI data for August later this week, and the US Fed's reaction next week.First today, American inflation expectations seem to be rising. In August they came in at 3.2%, their highest in three months. While that is higher than year ago levels too, some of the detail is a bit of a worry. Those surveyed say rents are expected to rise 6.0%, food by 5.5% and petrol by 3.9%. Also of some note is that job finding expectations have now fallen to a record low in a data series that started in June 2013. More than 14% of those surveyed say they are likely to lose their job in the year ahead. There is a palpable sense of fear and squeeze in these survey results. The fast-tightening labour market has many on edge.Meanwhile, August data for American consumer debt shows it rising, up +3.8% from a year ago with revolving debt up a sharp +9.7% on the same basis. Debt levels at credit unions seem to be leading the rises. These are all three year highs and the sudden shift likely indicates rising debt stress.The USD is falling, heading towards a three year low. Benchmark bond yields are falling and the UST 10 year is near a one year low.Across the Pacific, Chinese exports grew by +4.4% in August from a year ago, a level many others would like to have but it is lower than the expected +5% and July's +7.2% growth. And it is the softest pace of outbound shipment growth since February. Meanwhile their imports were up +1.3% in August on the same basis, less than the expected +3% and July's +4.1% rise. But that meant that their trade balance swelled to +US$102 bln in August, better than the +US$99 expected and higher than July's +US$91 bln.While China's exports and imports to the US eased back in August, they still ran a +US$24.3 bln monthly surplus with this strategic rival and that isn't declining materially. It's the largest surplus they run with anyone, although the combined nations of the EU ran a larger deficit with China at US$28.9 bln in August.In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned over the weekend and new candidates are lining up to replace him. Financial markets are buoyant there on the prospect that a new leaders may chase fiscal expansion.And in France, their prime minister has lost a confidence vote.In Germany, their exports came in slightly weaker than expected in August when a rise was anticipated. But it was still a good gain on a year ago, and helped them maintain a healthy trade surplus. Meanwhile German industrial production came in much better in July than expected, bouncing back from a weak June.The UST 10yr yield is now under 4.05%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today surging to a new high at US$3,633/oz, up +US$47 from yesterday.American oil prices are a bit firmer, up less than +50 USc at just under US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price also firmer just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just over 59.3 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.7, up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,282 and up 1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Stagflation lurks in the US, deflation lurks in China

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2025 7:21


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news American right-wing swamp populism is driving the world's economy into a blind alley. Other countries are trying to figure out how to separate themselves from that.In the week ahead, financial markets will be assessing the risks of stagflation after the weaker labour market report in the US, and the growing expectation that inflation's new rise will pick up steam. In the US we will get August CPI and PPI data at the end of the week and their core CPI rate could well rise from its July 3.1% rate. That data will be put in context with the next University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey update.Inflation data from both China and India is also due, but little upward pressure is expected to be seen from either of them. In China, new initiatives on support measures to keep their economy from stuttering are expected this week largely to fend of deflationary pressures.The ECB will be reviewing its policy rates this week, but no change is expected. Inflation is no threat there, giving them options.Over the weekend we got a keenly anticipated American update on their labour market. It turned out that analysts were right to think the low forecast of a +75,000 rise in US non-farm jobs was optimistic. In fact they came in at +22,000 for August. June data was revised down by -27,000 and the change for July was revised up by +6,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21K lower than previously reported. Trump's firing of the agency that reports this data isn't changing the sharp trend lower. Trump now has to own this trend.In fact, the total jobs added in May, June, July and August in 2025 is about the same as was added in August 2024 alone. For them its a concerning trajectory but it can all be traced to junk public policy.Worse, the data shows that manufacturing jobs fell -12,000 in August with clearly no sign of factory jobs reshoring.If we look at the unadjusted data for civilian employment - which accounts for more than just those on employer payrolls, the July to August change was a -511,000 reduction. It's a time when the self-employed are really struggling.All this downbeat data is reflected in the financial markets on Friday. Wall Street was down -0.3%, bond yields fell sharply again, and the USD weakened. The pall spread to Europe too where they are digesting the latest US strategic insult.The chance of a rate cut by the Fed has now become a certainty in financial market pricing as the central bank is scrambling to contain the growing fiscal mess which looks like it is going to be much larger than feared, and much sooner. A full -25 bps rate cut is priced in for the mid-September meeting, and another before the end of the year. Trump will get his rate cuts because of his actions to tank the US economy. But there are voting members who still insist that inflation should be contained before they cut. The next US CPI data is due in a week and the current +2.7% inflation rate is widely expected to rise to 2.9% and a core rate back over 3.0% which emphasises the risks stagflation's effects are hurting the world's largest economy.It was no better in Canada where payroll employment fell -65,500 in August from July largely due to a sharp fall in part-time employment (-59,700). The trade shock with the US is getting the blame here too.In Canada they watch the Ivey PMI closely and that shifted from a modest expansion in July to none in August. But at least it wasn't contracting. Consistent with their official jobs data, the employment sub-component of this PMI was contracting.A -25 bps rate cut there is also priced in before the end of 2025. Canadian August inflation is expected to come in little-changed at 1.7% on September 16, 2025.The Canadian government is taking an activist approach to protecting their economy with a major support announcement on Friday.Data out across the Pacific was far more encouraging. Singapore said its retail activity expanded far more than expected in July, and is now up +4.1% from June, up +4.8% from a year ago. It has been on a rising trend for almost all of 2025.And China said its fx reserves rose to US$3.32 tln in August, its highest since late 2015. And it purchased a bit more gold in the month, helped by the rise in the gold price of course, which adds another US$2.5 tln to to reserves which now total US$3.64 tln.In Australia, extended June quarter labour market data showed that the number of total jobs there increased +0.3% to 16.3 million. Filled jobs rose +0.2% to 16.0 million where secondary jobs decreased -1.2% to 1.0 million and multiple job-holders decreased -1.3% to 948,900. Hours worked increased +0.3% to 6.0 billion hours in the quarterThe FAO global food price monitoring shows that in August overall prices were stable and just marginally higher than where they ended 2024. Dairy prices look like they have peaked but meat prices are still rising driven by beef and sheep meats.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.09%, unchanged from yesterday at this time. That makes the weekly backslide -14 bps and to a five month low. The price of gold will start today at US$3,585/oz, down -US$7 from Saturday and just off its record high. That is up almost +US$150 from a week ago and a sharp +4.4% risk aversion rise for the week.American oil prices are a bit softer at just under US$62/bbl on the struggling US domestic prospects with the international Brent price also softer just on US$65.50/bbl. A big new burst of crude production is on its way too.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 58.9 USc and little-changed from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.4, up +10 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,046 and down a mere +0.1% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Q+A
Geoffrey Palmer: Why people are unhappy with democracy

Q+A

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2025 27:33


Full interview: Former Prime Minister Sir Geoffrey Palmer has dedicated much of his life to democracy. But now, with democracy seemingly in decline around the world, he says New Zealand needs to act in order to strengthen our government and society. His new book How to Save Democracy in Aotearoa New Zealand reflects on the reasons behind people's unhappiness with democracy, and how to fix it.

SAGE Education
Working with complexity: Leading school networks in Aotearoa New Zealand and England

SAGE Education

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2025 10:05


Economy Watch
Markets gird for weakish US labour market report

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2025 6:04


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets can now taste a US Fed rate cut.Today, all eye are on tomorrow's August non-farm payrolls report for the US. Analysts expect them to rise a minor +75,000 but overnight labour market data suggests that may be optimistic.First, US initial jobless claims rose last week to 197,000 when seasonal factors suggested it should have fallen. There are now more than 1.89 mln people on these benefits, +90,000 more than at the same time last year.Announced August job cuts came in at 86,000 in August, +40% more than in July. So far this year, companies have announced 892,000 job cuts, the highest year-to-date level since 2020 when 1,963,500 were announced. It is up +66% from the same period last year and is now +17% higher in 2025's eight months than all of the 2024 full calendar year total (of 761,500).Maintaining the weakening theme, the ADP Employment Report only reported a jobs gain of +54,000 in August, below the expected low +65,000 and well below July's +106,000. In August 2024 this data showed a +180,000 rise.US labour productivity is improving however, with faster rises in output while labour hours only show a modest increase. Year on year this productivity measure is up +1.1%.And there was better PMI data out for the US services sector with the widely-watched ISM version expanding slightly more than expected, while the S&P Global/Markit version expanded better even if it was adjusted lower than its earlier 'flash' version. Encouragingly, in both versions new order flows kept these metrics positive and they are at similar levels as a year ago.US exports were little-changed in July from a year ago, as were the level of imports. That resulted in a goods & services trade deficit almost identical to a year ago. Still, it is now at a four month high. Tariffs have yet to move the trade needle either way (other than collect much more tax from importers).Financial market reactions to this generally downbeat economic news - was upbeat, on the basis that it makes a Fed rate cut on September 18 (our time) more likely. Equities rose modestly, but bond yields fell quite hard.Meanwhile Canada also said its exports, imports and trade balance was little-different in July from June, although quite a bit worse than year-ago levels. But the deficit is still quite small (-C$4.9 bln) in relation to the Canadian economy, and their smallest deficit in four months.In China, they are rolling out a new policy to try and juice up consumption - State-subsidised personal loans. Like the rest of the world, but more so in China, "moire debt" is the answer to all economic problems.With headline inflation at just 1.4%, the Malaysian central bank kept its policy rate unchanged overnight at 2.75%.EU retail sales slipped in July from June, but remain +2.2% higher than year-ago levels. They report on a volume basis, so these gains are 'real'.In Australia, household spending is strong and rising. It was up +5.1% in July from the same month a year ago, up +0.5% in July from June which is an even faster rate. That's the third month in a row it has risen and it has risen in nine of the past ten months. In July, this spending was concentrated on services, especially health services, hotel accommodation, air travel, and dining out. But they actually cut back on spending on goods.Meanwhile, the Australian trade balance turned up after a series of declines. Markets expected a +AU$5 bln surplus in July after a +AU$5.4 bln surplus they got in June. But in fact the surplus came in as +AU$7.4 bln in July, helped by a +3.3% monthly rise in exports and a -1.3% monthly fall in imports. That means the surplus hit a 21 month high.Global container freight rates were virtually unchanged last week from the prior week, although still down massively from the Red Sea crisi affected year ago levels. Interestingly, outbound rates from China to the US rose a sharpish +8% or more last week, but that was balanced by large falls in the China-to-Europe trade. Bulk cargo rates are still in a narrow band, little-changed from last week.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, down another -5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,543/oz, down -US$30 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at just over US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price -50 USc softer just on US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.4 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.1, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,830 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Economy Watch
US hit with pessimistic data

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2025 5:26


Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's largest economy is being hit today with a string of pessimistic data reports, despite one of the tech giants avoiding a breakup which saw its shares surge to a record high.American job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 mln in July and that was the lowest level since September 2024 and well below market expectations of 7.4 mln. Interestingly, there was wide regional variation with openings dropping most in the South, down -161,000, while they rose in the West, up by +113,000 openings.So it won't be a surprise to learn that mortgage applications fell again last week, the third consecutive weekly retreat. This happened even though mortgage interest rates were little-changed.And it also won't be too much of a surprise to learn that US factory orders declined also in July from June, down an outsized -1.3% - and the June data was revised lower to be down -4.3%. New durable goods orders were down -2.8% in July. These won't be welcome trends, especially as tariffs were supposed to bolster US manufacturing. Year-on-year the July levels are up +1.8% and well below what can be accounted for by inflation. But it will be the recent sharper trends lower that are most concerning.So the Fed's August Beige Book note of "flat to declining consumer spending because, for many households, wages were failing to keep up with rising prices. Contacts frequently cited economic uncertainty and tariffs as negative factors." will come as no surprise.In China, all the news is about its massive military parade in Tiananmen Square. This one follows similar shows of force that started in Pyongyang on April 15, followed in Tehran on April 20, then Moscow on May 9, and Washington DC on June 14. All organised by authoritarians. It's a militarisation trend that is very retrograde. And they are massive propaganda exercises, so it is disappointing that some of our politicians want to be seen at them. But like many others, they follow the money and incentives.Staying in China, the RatingDog (ex-Caixin) services PMI for August expanded faster than July and to a good level, better than expected and the fastest expansion in their services sector since May 2024. New orders grew at the strongest pace since May 2024, supported by a stronger rise in new export business, which increased at the fastest rate in six months. Like yesterday's RatingDog factory PMI, this survey as also better than the official services PMI.And South Korean officials now say they want to join the CPTPP, as insurance against US tariff moves against them. The path won't be easy for them, mainly because they have built up insulations and protections against Japanese investment making inroads into their economy.In Europe, producer prices were only up a modest +0.4% in July from a year ago, confirming they seem to have a good lid on inflation there. But the more recent indications are rises that are slightly above that (at a rate of +0.6%). At least the Europeans don't have the pressure of self-imposed tariff-taxes. Their cost competitive position vs the US is improving sharply.Australian economic activity grew +0.6% in Q2-2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised +0.3% in Q1 and better than analyst expectations of +0.5%. Year on year Australian GDP was up +1.8%, above forecasts of +1.6% and the fastest pace since Q3 2023.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,573/oz, up +US$47 from yesterday and surging to yet another new record high. Silver has moved higher too and now over US$41/oz.American oil prices are -US$2 lower at just over US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.8 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.3, unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,443 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
US returns from holidays in a grumpy mood

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2025 5:15


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that US financial markets are back from holiday and concluding that the tech sector is over-valued and that US public policy is heading into a blind alley. The bond market sentiment we noted in the past month has now spread into the equity markets.And you can see the rising risk aversion in the gold price, driving it sharply higher today into new territory.At the overnight dairy auction, prices slumped more than -4.3% in US dollar terms. The situation was 'saved' somewhat by the sharpish recent fall in the NZD, so in local currency terms it was 'only' down -3.5%. Both the milk powders retreated sharply, with SMP down -5.8% and WMP down -5.3%. Most other milk fat commodities fell too with the notable exception of cheddar cheese which was up +3.6%.Although its only one event, the dominant WMP price is now back to early 2025 levels, and with a bit of a thud. Analysts will be keeping an eye on this, unlikely to shift their farmgate price forecasts but wouldn't want these lower levels to repeat. But good global supply levels won't help future prices especially if demand turns soft and it seems to be doing in some key markets.In the US, the widely-watched ISM factory PMI was still contracting at a concerning rate in August. And that was despite a small rise in new orders. Both measures were lower than expected. The alternate S&P Global/Markit PMI told a different story however, rising on more production and inventory building. But it was the ISM one that markets took more notice of.US logistics LMI was little-changed. But the elements like inventory levels and inventory costs are rising at an increasing rate, and these are not good portends.And the RCM/TIPP consumer sentiment index was quite downbeat as well. In fact it fell when a rise was anticipated.In Canada, their factory PMI rose from the deepish contraction it has been in for most of 2025, but it is still not expanding. It too was based on rising production, but no rise in new orders.In Europe, they said their August inflation was running at 2.1%, up marginally from +2.0% in July. Interestingly, energy costs are still retreating but the impact on the overall price level is now much less with food and services prices rising at a much lesser rate now.A new global report is highlighting that electricity demand is on course to rise by +3.3% in 2025 and +3.7% in 2026, more than twice as fast as total energy demand growth over the same period. According to the report, renewables are expected to overtake coal as the world's largest source of electricity generation as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest, depending on weather and fuel price trends. At the same time, nuclear power output is expected to reach record highs. The steady increase in natural gas-fired power generation is set to continue displacing coal and oil in the power sector in many regions.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, up +3 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is up at +63 bps. The last time it was this steep was in February 2022. Long dated yields are on the move higher. The UST 30 year yield is actually closing in on 2007 levels and almost at 5%.The price of gold will start today at US$3,526/oz, up +US$50 from yesterday and surging to a new record high. Silver has moved higher too but not as aggressively.American oil prices are +US$1 firmer at just over US$65.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.7 USc and down -30 bps from yesterday and its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.3, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,892 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Rest of world rises while the US on holiday

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2025 5:14


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Global. That August factory PMI showed manufacturing output returned to growth in August. Total new business expanded at quickest pace since March. But it also reported the fastest rise in average input prices in nine months. As has become the norm in 2025, this private PMI series is more bullish than the official PMI.While we are noting improved factory PMIs in Australia and China, we should also note that they improved in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia as well. The Trump tariff-taxes aren't killing these countries. In fact, because it is the American importers who are paying these taxes (and ultimately the American consumer), the whole tariff journey just shows the American's are prepared to pay a lot more for what they import, and demand isn't flagging. Yet, anyway.Of special note is the regaining of momentum in India where their factory PMI turned notably higher on new orders and new-found momentum. This is now their fastest improvement in operating conditions in seventeen and a half years, with production growth accelerating to a nearly five-year high, supported by strong demand and better alignment of supply with orders. New orders rose at the fastest pace in nearly five years, and given they have been strong in the lead-up, this is really saying something.Even European factories are on the move up, returning to expansion with the sharpest rise in factory output since March 2022. Their factory PMI is now at its highest in 41 months.Australia's factory sector expansion accelerated again in August. Higher new order levels, supported by a rise in exports, led to a solid rise in production. Confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022. The survey showed that manufacturers hired more staff and raised their purchasing and inventory levels. Meanwhile price pressures remained little problem.And staying in Australia, their residential building consents fell -8.2% in July from June, almost double the market expectations of a -4.8% fall. This sharply ate into the upwardly revised +12.2% increase in June. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in approvals for dwellings that weren't houses (apartments and townhouses). By state, approvals fell sharpest in New South Wales (-25%), while rising in Tasmania (+12%), Western Australia (+12%), in Queensland (+5.9%).Lower new homebuilding is juicing up their existing-home real estate markets. Cotality reported strong August gains from July, up +0.7% for the month nationally. It's back as a strong sellers market. The rises in Brisbane and Perth are notable, but the gains in Adelaide and Sydney were not far behind them in August. The consequences for affordability for most aspiring buyers look awful.We should probably also note that the forecast for Australia's wheat crop was raised sharply in an overnight update. Good rains recently is behind the revision.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is up at +62 bps. The last time it was this steep was in February 2022. Long dated yields are on the move higher. The UST 30 year yield is actually closing in on 2007 levels. The price of gold will start today at US$3,477/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver topped US$40/oz for the first time since 2011, also near a record high.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$64.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just over US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps as well at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,918 and little-changed (down -0.1%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Mixed Bag
152 - Beaches

Mixed Bag

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2025 117:34


Let's go to the beach, beach, let's go get away with Bette Midler and Barbara Hershey! Next on our Tissue Box Office list is a classic platonic weepie that somehow has little to no cultural footprint in Aotearoa New Zealand. A privileged rich debutante and a cynical struggling entertainer share a turbulent, but strong childhood friendship over the years. (Sourced from Letterboxd). But before we dive into the beachy waves, we unpack the 2025 NZ International Film Festival in a bumper Pop Corner. Hear our thoughts on Sirât, The Mastermind, Resurrection, Sorry, Baby, A Useful Ghost, Dreams (Sex Love), Blue Moon, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre, The Weed Eaters, Twinless, Little Trouble Girls, Sentimental Value and The Shrouds. Also, hear Matt and Jamie almost come to blows over Freakier Friday, and witness Matt's incessant bullying of The Life of Chuck.

95bFM: The Wire
The Need for AI regulations to protect Women & Children w/ The University of Canterbury's Dr Cassandra Mudgway: 1 September, 2025

95bFM: The Wire

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2025


An open letter signed by over 20 AI experts has been sent to the government, expressing the urgent need for AI regulation in Aotearoa New Zealand. The letter points to low trust, as well as potential harms of AI, as serious issues that need to be addressed. The experts have called for regulations and guardrails to support regulatory confidence and innovation, and reduce harm from deepfakes, fraud, and environmental costs, among others. Producer Alex spoke to The University of Canterbury's Dr Cassandra Mudgway about how unregulated AI enables gendered harm against women and vulnerable demographics through Deepfakes and other AI. Content Warning: This story mentions Image Based Sexual Abuse.  

Economy Watch
US courts doubt Trump had tariff-tax authority

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2025 7:31


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump's global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme Court.Then, over the weekend we got the official Chinese PMIs for August and they extended the sluggish environment their manufacturing sector finds itself in. Despite the 90 'extension' before punitive tariffs kick in with the US, orders contracted for a fifth consecutive month. On the services side however, they maintained their small expansion in August, albeit marginally better.But early data suggests their housing slump is not ending, maybe even getting worse. Sale volumes in August are likely to be more than -17% lower than a year ago.Although it is a shortened week in the US, it ends with the August jobs data. Markets expect another weak result (just +78,000). You will recall the weak data last month saw Trump fire the agency head who compiled it. So there will be special attention this time on its believability under the BLS agency's deputy. Before that we will get lead-up jobs data, the ISM PMIs for the US.Canada will also release labour market data. The EU inflation data, and others will release GDP data for Q2-2025, including from Australia on Wednesday.At the end of last week, July data out in the US shows that disposable personal income was up +2.0% from a year ago, personal consumption expenditure was up +2.1% on the same basis. On a month-on-month basis, the income was up +0.4% and expenditure up +0.5%. These elements are not major but they do indicate a tightening in household financial budgets.Nested deep within this release was that core PCE index rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, its largest rise since February and above the Fed's target and comfort zone. Tariff costs are getting the blame. Financial markets noticed.And that is the same sort of tightening indicated by the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey. Its final August version fell back markedly from its initial readings, a clear indication households are finding it tougher. It is now -14% lower than a year ago. The Biden boom is now just a memory.On the factory floor, the latest indicators are shifting down too. The August Chicago PMI headed south quite sharply to be -10% below year-ago levels.And the US seems to be losing the tariff war it started - and Americans are paying the tariff-taxes. The latest trade data for July shows that the US merchandise trade deficit jumped to -US$104 billion in the month, exactly the same as July a year ago, and far above expectations of -US$90 bln deficit. It is their largest in four months. Imports jumped +7.1% from a month earlier, led by industrial supplies, capital goods, food, and consumer goods. Meanwhile, exports slipped -0.1%.Certainly, American farmers are not happy. And they have a President who probably doesn't even know where Pakistan is, let alone most other simple facts.In Canada, they got a sharp dose of shock in their Q2-2025 GDP result from the sharp turn on them from their southern neighbour. Their GDP fell -0.4% in the quarter and cancelling out the +0.5% gain in their first quarter. Year-on-year their GDP is still up +0.9% however.Across the Pacific the economic data is generally much more positive. South Korea's retail sales surged +2.5% in July from June, a big jump from a revised +0.7% increase in June and marking the fastest growth in over two years. From a year ago it is up +2.4% and that too is the most since January 2022.South Korean industrial production grew solidly in July as well, up +5.0% from a year ago.After a good gain in June, Japan's industrial production fell -1.6% in July, reversing a +2.1% June gain and much more than the -1.0% decline anticipated.Japanese retail sales only rose by +0.3% in July from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +1.9% gain in June and falling well short of market expectations for a +1.8% increase.But Japanese consumer confidence actually rose in August to its best level of the year with gains across all surveyed questions.We should also note that protests in Jakarta on Friday that turned deadly have put Indonesia on edge. They have spread over the weekend. Canberra will be watching nervously.In Europe, the ECB's survey found that consumer inflation expectations were stable ("well anchored") in July at 2.6% for the year ahead.Globally, air passenger demand was up +4.0% in July, driven by the Asia/Pacific +5.7% rise and held back by the North American +1.9% rise. Most of this is due to international travel. Meanwhile, air cargo traffic was even stronger in July, up +5.5% from a year ago, up +6.0% for international trade. Asia/Pacific was the strongest region here too, up +11.0% for international cargoes. But North American international cargo volumes only rose +1.5%, the weakest global region.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, unchanged from Saturday, but down -3 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,447/oz, up another +US$5 from Saturday, and close to a new record high, but basically a measure of the USD markdown. A week ago it was at US$3,371/oz so a net +US$76 gainAmerican oil prices are again little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price holding just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59 USc and unchanged from Saturday at this time, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged as well at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.5, and unchanged from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,022 and up +0.5% from this time Saturday. But is down -6.7% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

SpaceBase Podcast
Building New Zealand's Satellite Capability while Addressing the Space Debris Problem: An Interview with Ben Taylor

SpaceBase Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2025 37:29


An interview with Dr. Ben Taylor, a seasoned scientist, engineer, and project manager with over 15 years of experience delivering full-lifecycle space missions across the UK, Europe, and now Aotearoa New Zealand.Ben is currently a Senior Research Fellow at Te Pūnaha Ātea – Space Institute at the University of Auckland, and Co-Founder of Frond Space Systems, a startup offering compact and reliable end-of-life and deployable satellite systems.Previously, Ben held leadership roles at the Surrey Space Centre and University College London, where he helped design, build, test, and operate CubeSats like ALSat-Nano, InflateSail, and RemoveDebris — missions that pushed the boundaries of small satellite technology and active debris removal. He's also contributed to radiation detection research and calibration for the Galileo program, and has delivered presentations at major international space conferences.Ben holds a PhD in Space Science from the University of Surrey, is a certified project management professional, and has been interviewed by major media outlets on cutting-edge space topics.Hosts:  SpaceBase Founder Emeline Paat-DahlstromResourcesAuckland Programme for Space Systems - University of AucklandUniversity Nanosat Program - US Air ForceSupport the show

Super Great Kids' Stories
Kawariki and the Shark Man

Super Great Kids' Stories

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2025 28:20


Kawariki is secretly in love with a shark man. Well, he wasn't a shark when she fell in love with him, but her Dad who has magic powers, wants her to marry someone else, so he turns the man she loves into a shark. Eek! Listen to Emmy Bidois tell this Maori tale, from Aotearoa (New Zealand) and see how the power of love, and help from a sea goddess helps solve this problem. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

TopMedTalk
Perioperative Medicine and Promoting Diversity in Healthcare

TopMedTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2025 15:44


Perioperative Medicine and Promoting Diversity in Healthcare, A Deep Dive with David Story, Professor and Foundation Chair of Anaesthesia at the University of Melbourne; Head of the University Department of Critical Care, and President of the Australian and New Zealand College of Anesthetists (ANZCA). In this piece we discuss the evolution of perioperative medicine and the importance of diversity and inclusion within healthcare, focusing particularly on the challenges and advancements involving First Nations people in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand. Hear insights into the efforts to support Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, and Māori, in medical education and practice, emphasizing the role of trust and cultural sensitivity. We also touch on gender equity in the medical field and the progress made towards a fairer, more inclusive environment in both Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand. Recorded at the Evidence Based Perioperative Medicine (EBPOM) World Congress in London and presented by Andy Cumpstey. For more information on EBPOM please visit www.ebpom.org

Espresso Sesh - BFF.fm
Unfinished Business (85% vinyl)

Espresso Sesh - BFF.fm

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2025 120:00


For episode 440, I welcomed Beach Motors (David Robinson), a DJ and producer from Te Matau-a-Māui, Aotearoa (New Zealand) now based in SF, with a deep…

Collective Impact Forum
Building Belonging through Conversations

Collective Impact Forum

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2025 80:37


In a time when so many are grappling with division and polarization in their communities, where does one start to build connections to better understand when and why do you feel like you “belong” in your community? In this new podcast conversation, we talk with Anjum Rahman and Atarau Hamilton-Fuller from Inclusive Aotearoa Collective Tāhono, based in Aotearoa New Zealand. In the aftermath of the horrific Christchurch mosque attacks in 2019, their collective's work focused on visiting communities across the country to foster understanding, empathy, and a sense of belonging by encouraging participants to share personal experiences of inclusion and exclusion.Anjum and Atarau share about the unique, culturally grounded approach that they developed as their group hosted and facilitated “belonging conversations” across 46 cities and towns. These conversations, created with three simple yet revealing questions, helped create spaces where participants felt safe to be truly heard, learned the power of deep listening without judgement, and helped understand each other's shared humanity.As part of this discussion, we also demonstrate the conversation, exploring the three core questions to help understand why these discussions have been so powerful for participants.This discussion is essential listening for anyone seeking practical ideas for how to build understanding and foster genuine connection across different groups within the same community.Resources and Footnotes:Inclusive Aotearoa Collective TāhonoResource: What does belonging mean to you?Resource: How to Hold a Conversation on BelongingMore on Collective ImpactInfographic: What is Collective Impact?Resource List: Getting Started in Collective ImpactThe Intro music, entitled “Running,” was composed by Rafael Krux, and can be found here and is licensed under CC: By 4.0. The outro music, entitled “Deliberate Thought,” was composed by Kevin Macleod. Licensed under CC: By.Have a question related to collaborative work that you'd like to have discussed on the podcast? Contact us at: https://www.collectiveimpactforum.org/contact-us/

Parliament - Live Stream and Question Time
Oral Questions for Wednesday 23 July 2025

Parliament - Live Stream and Question Time

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2025 66:27


Questions to Ministers TODD STEPHENSON to the Minister for Regulation: Will New Zealanders benefit from the Ministry for Regulation's work to remove unnecessary rules and regulations; if so, how? Rt Hon CHRIS HIPKINS to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his Government's statements and actions? CAMERON BREWER to the Minister of Finance: What recent reports has she seen on the economy? KAHURANGI CARTER to the Minister for Disability Issues: Does she agree with the findings of the Youth MP Parliamentary Working Group report that disabled people, especially disabled students, are consistently failed by our system; if not, why not? CATHERINE WEDD to the Minister responsible for RMA Reform: What recent updates has he given about the Fast-track Approvals Act 2024? Hon WILLIE JACKSON to the Minister for Social Development and Employment: Does she stand by her target of reducing jobseeker numbers by 50,000; if so, is the target closer or further away from being achieved? Dr VANESSA WEENINK to the Minister of Education: What recent announcements has she made regarding school property? DEBBIE NGAREWA-PACKER to the Minister of Health: What specific Maori health outcomes, if any, will improve as a result of his proposed changes to the Pae Ora (Healthy Futures) Act 2022? Hon GINNY ANDERSEN to the Minister for Infrastructure: What is his plan to ensure there is the workforce to deliver the infrastructure pipeline, and how does it address the fact that more than a quarter of builders say they don't have enough staff to meet future needs? TEANAU TUIONO to the Minister of Foreign Affairs: What new commitments, if any, has the Government made to protect Aotearoa New Zealand's marine environment following the United Nations Ocean Conference in France last month? MIKE BUTTERICK to the Minister for Trade and Investment: What opportunities will New Zealand exporters have following the third reading of the United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill yesterday? Hon PEENI HENARE to the Associate Minister of Housing: How have homelessness statistics changed in each major urban centre, according to the Homelessness Insights report he received in June 2025, both in absolute numbers and percentage terms, when comparing the most recent reporting period to the previous one?

New Books in History
Nicholas Thomas, "Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific" (Apollo, 2020)

New Books in History

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2025 58:16


In Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific (Apollo, 2020), the distinguished anthropologist Nicholas Thomas tells the story of the peopling of the Pacific. In clear, accessible language Thomas shows us that most Pacific Islanders are in fact 'inter-islanders', or people defined by their movement across the ocean and between islands, rather than 'trapped' in islands in a far sea. Thomas also described the European discovery of the Pacific, and emphasizes the role Pacific Islanders played in teaching European explorers about the Pacific. 'European' knowledge of the Pacific, Thomas claims, was very much 'intercultural' and relied on indigenous Pacific knowledge of the region. In this episode of the podcast, Nick sits down with Alex Golub to discuss his book and the history of the Pacific. They talk about the influence of Epeli Hau‘ofa's writings on Nick's concept of 'inter-islanders' and discuss the complexities of intercultural contact in the nineteenth century Pacific which are exemplified by 'Tupaia's Chart' -- the map made for Captain Cook by Tupaia, the Tahitian navigator who led Cook to Aotearoa/New Zealand. Overall, Voyagers is an excellent introduction to Pacific history which can be read by anyone with an interest in the Pacific. Associate professor of anthropology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/history

New Books Network
Nicholas Thomas, "Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific" (Apollo, 2020)

New Books Network

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2025 58:16


In Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific (Apollo, 2020), the distinguished anthropologist Nicholas Thomas tells the story of the peopling of the Pacific. In clear, accessible language Thomas shows us that most Pacific Islanders are in fact 'inter-islanders', or people defined by their movement across the ocean and between islands, rather than 'trapped' in islands in a far sea. Thomas also described the European discovery of the Pacific, and emphasizes the role Pacific Islanders played in teaching European explorers about the Pacific. 'European' knowledge of the Pacific, Thomas claims, was very much 'intercultural' and relied on indigenous Pacific knowledge of the region. In this episode of the podcast, Nick sits down with Alex Golub to discuss his book and the history of the Pacific. They talk about the influence of Epeli Hau‘ofa's writings on Nick's concept of 'inter-islanders' and discuss the complexities of intercultural contact in the nineteenth century Pacific which are exemplified by 'Tupaia's Chart' -- the map made for Captain Cook by Tupaia, the Tahitian navigator who led Cook to Aotearoa/New Zealand. Overall, Voyagers is an excellent introduction to Pacific history which can be read by anyone with an interest in the Pacific. Associate professor of anthropology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

New Books in World Affairs
Nicholas Thomas, "Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific" (Apollo, 2020)

New Books in World Affairs

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2025 58:16


In Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific (Apollo, 2020), the distinguished anthropologist Nicholas Thomas tells the story of the peopling of the Pacific. In clear, accessible language Thomas shows us that most Pacific Islanders are in fact 'inter-islanders', or people defined by their movement across the ocean and between islands, rather than 'trapped' in islands in a far sea. Thomas also described the European discovery of the Pacific, and emphasizes the role Pacific Islanders played in teaching European explorers about the Pacific. 'European' knowledge of the Pacific, Thomas claims, was very much 'intercultural' and relied on indigenous Pacific knowledge of the region. In this episode of the podcast, Nick sits down with Alex Golub to discuss his book and the history of the Pacific. They talk about the influence of Epeli Hau‘ofa's writings on Nick's concept of 'inter-islanders' and discuss the complexities of intercultural contact in the nineteenth century Pacific which are exemplified by 'Tupaia's Chart' -- the map made for Captain Cook by Tupaia, the Tahitian navigator who led Cook to Aotearoa/New Zealand. Overall, Voyagers is an excellent introduction to Pacific history which can be read by anyone with an interest in the Pacific. Associate professor of anthropology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/world-affairs

New Books in Ancient History
Nicholas Thomas, "Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific" (Apollo, 2020)

New Books in Ancient History

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2025 58:16


In Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific (Apollo, 2020), the distinguished anthropologist Nicholas Thomas tells the story of the peopling of the Pacific. In clear, accessible language Thomas shows us that most Pacific Islanders are in fact 'inter-islanders', or people defined by their movement across the ocean and between islands, rather than 'trapped' in islands in a far sea. Thomas also described the European discovery of the Pacific, and emphasizes the role Pacific Islanders played in teaching European explorers about the Pacific. 'European' knowledge of the Pacific, Thomas claims, was very much 'intercultural' and relied on indigenous Pacific knowledge of the region. In this episode of the podcast, Nick sits down with Alex Golub to discuss his book and the history of the Pacific. They talk about the influence of Epeli Hau‘ofa's writings on Nick's concept of 'inter-islanders' and discuss the complexities of intercultural contact in the nineteenth century Pacific which are exemplified by 'Tupaia's Chart' -- the map made for Captain Cook by Tupaia, the Tahitian navigator who led Cook to Aotearoa/New Zealand. Overall, Voyagers is an excellent introduction to Pacific history which can be read by anyone with an interest in the Pacific. Associate professor of anthropology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New Books in Australian and New Zealand Studies
Nicholas Thomas, "Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific" (Apollo, 2020)

New Books in Australian and New Zealand Studies

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2025 58:16


In Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific (Apollo, 2020), the distinguished anthropologist Nicholas Thomas tells the story of the peopling of the Pacific. In clear, accessible language Thomas shows us that most Pacific Islanders are in fact 'inter-islanders', or people defined by their movement across the ocean and between islands, rather than 'trapped' in islands in a far sea. Thomas also described the European discovery of the Pacific, and emphasizes the role Pacific Islanders played in teaching European explorers about the Pacific. 'European' knowledge of the Pacific, Thomas claims, was very much 'intercultural' and relied on indigenous Pacific knowledge of the region. In this episode of the podcast, Nick sits down with Alex Golub to discuss his book and the history of the Pacific. They talk about the influence of Epeli Hau‘ofa's writings on Nick's concept of 'inter-islanders' and discuss the complexities of intercultural contact in the nineteenth century Pacific which are exemplified by 'Tupaia's Chart' -- the map made for Captain Cook by Tupaia, the Tahitian navigator who led Cook to Aotearoa/New Zealand. Overall, Voyagers is an excellent introduction to Pacific history which can be read by anyone with an interest in the Pacific. Associate professor of anthropology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/australian-and-new-zealand-studies

Pixelated Playgrounds
Umurangi Generation

Pixelated Playgrounds

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2025


In this episode of Pixelated Playgrounds, Bryan and Josh dive into Umurangi Generation, the vibrant, potent, and subversive photography game from Māori developer Naphtali Faulkner. Set in a near-future Aotearoa (New Zealand) under invasion and authoritarian control, the game asks players not to save the world, but to document its unraveling. Bryan and Josh explore how Faulkner's anger at systemic failure, fueled by the bushfires and pandemic response, shapes the game's unapologetic aesthetics, themes, and searing environmental storytelling. From graffiti-covered skate parks to militarized train stations, every frame you capture is an indictment, not an escape.Bryan and Josh also discuss Umurangi Generation's unique take on photography as play, protest, and preservation. Through its deliberately clunky movement, time-bound challenges, and varied levels, the game interrogates the tension between art and commerce, beauty and collapse. As Māori language and culture saturate its design, Umurangi Generation's world feels deeply personal and localized, yet globally resonant. This isn't a story of revolution or heroism—it's a quiet, furious insistence on witnessing collapse. Join us as we unpack how Umurangi Generation turns a camera into a weapon of truth in a world on the brink.Show Notes:Interview containing the Quote Bryan shared: The Umurangi Generation is Asking You To CareThree Word Reviews:Bryan - Documenting the FallJosh - Afraid of Judgement

Field Notes
Ep 53: Jacynthia Murphy and Silvia Purdie – Aotearoa New Zealand's women in creation care

Field Notes

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2025 34:31


Rev Jacynthia Murphy is of Māori descent and serves in a Pākehā parish. In this conversation with Rev Silvia Purdie and the Field Notes hosts she discusses her indigenous perspective on faith and her passionate environmentalism. She is one of the women featured in “Awhi Mai Awhi Atu: Women in Creation Care,” edited by Silvia (Philip Garside Publishing, 2022). Silvia is a counsellor and pastoral theologian who offers training for environmental sustainability and is communicates extensively about the mental health impacts of the climate crisis.

RNZ: Nine To Noon
Mapping every tree in New Zealand

RNZ: Nine To Noon

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2025 10:34


Every tree in Aotearoa New Zealand's forests is about to be tracked - from space. A New Zealand data science company has just been award a million dollars from MBIE.

Full Story
The politics of an all Māori album: Marlon Williams

Full Story

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2025 26:42


Aotearoa/New Zealand artist Marlon Williams spent five years on his latest album, Te Whare Tīwekaweka, which is entirely in the Māori language. The release coincides with the current New Zealand coalition government limiting the use of the Indigenous language in the public service, and the suspension of three MPs who performed a Māori haka in protest of a bill which has been criticised as reversing Indigenous rights. Marlon Williams speaks to Reged Ahmad about singing in his first language on the international stage, and performs a song from the album in the Guardian Australia studio You can support the Guardian at theguardian.com/fullstorysupport

RNZ: Checkpoint
Aotearoa NZ sex workers collective on Forbes allegations

RNZ: Checkpoint

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2025 8:06


Cherida Fraser, Wellington co-ordinator for the Aotearoa New Zealand sex workers collective spoke to Lisa Owen about how the Prime Minister has ordered a review of vetting processes for parliamentary staff after his Deputy chief press secretary Michael Forbes quit following allegations he recorded intimate audio of sessions with sex workers and was in possession of intrusive photos of women. There were dozens of photos and footage on the former staffer's phone and some appear to have been recorded in public places and shot through windows at night.