Podcast appearances and mentions of steve rick

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says that he has lowered his forecast for economic growth to 0.5 percent, while raising his forecast for inflation to 3.5 percent; that combination means stagflation, and it's starting to happen now and could turn into recession if the growth slowdown is worse than expected. Rick notes that "No one wins trade wars" and notes that if the current situation plays out into one, that trade problems triggering huge downturns would seem to be a classic 100-year event. While he says the damage can be averted if economic policy changes are softened or mitigated, Rick says he worries that the impacts of current events could last as long or longer than the economic impacts of Covid. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, discusses the unprecedented action in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on April 17, when United Healthcare dropped 22 percent and, by itself, caused a big drop in the benchmark. He analyzes what that means for the Dow as a benchmark, but also talks index construction — and how investors should consider benchmarks — in light of the rapid growth of the Mag 7 stocks relative to the rest of the market. Plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how to sell some gold coins they received as an inheritance.

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, expects a unique occurrence in Federal Reserve actions between now and election date, with inflation dropping down to its target rate of 2 percent while the labor market reaches equilibrium, with the unemployment rate hitting 4.5 percent. Rick says that good news -- which will be accompanied by rate cuts from the central bank -- will push any potential recession back into 2025 and possibly '26, with economic growth falling below 2 percent, under long-term norms but not so bad that the economy craters. David Trainer, founder and president, New Constructs, pulls a shocker in the "Danger Zone," saying that a member of the Magnificent Seven -- a stock with one of the largest market capitalizations in the world -- has run so far, so fast that it is overdue for a reset that could bring the stock down by more than 60 percent. Plus economist and author Rob Larson, discusses his new book, "Mastering the Universe: The Obscene Wealth of the Ruling Class, What They Do with Their Money, and Why You Should Hate Them Even More."

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, expects the economy to slow in 2024 -- resulting in "a growth recession" rather than a traditional full-blown economic meltdown -- likely staving off a major stock market decline. Rick says he has heard from more nervous bank and credit union top dogs who are scared about economic conditions than at any time in his 30 plus year career and he worries that a slowdown in lending could be a trigger for something bigger and worse than he currently expects. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman, VettaFi make a managed-futures fund his pick for ETF of the Week, Chuck talks the $1.2 billion Powerball jackpot from Wednesday night and why the lump-sum payment was one of the lowest any big-prize distributions in years, plus Brian Drubetsky -- manager of the Cullen Small Cap Value Strategy fund -- talks small- and mid-sized stocks in the Market Call.

Jim Welsh, portfolio manager at Smart Portfolios and editor of the MacroTides newsletter, says that the next downturn is being set up by recent moves that have bolstered confidence and lulled investors into feeling good. When the market turns, closer to mid-year, Welsh thinks the disappointment of those investors will make the market more vulnerable to 'a significant decline,' which he believes will take the Standard and Poor's 500 down to the 3,500 level, with a hard-landing economy putting 3,200 within the realm of possibilities. In The Big Interview, Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, foresees a 'growth recession,' likely to start in the second half of 2023 as consumers start to tighten up their spending. Rick says a recession, if it happens, will be mild. In The NAVigator segment, Steven Perry, vice president at XA Investments, discusses the benefits and risks associated with leverage in closed-end funds during a rising-rate environment, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how he set up -- and changed over time -- the allowance practices used with his daughters.

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group says that while economic growth has slowed -- causing what might be considered a "growth recession" -- the economy itself should be able to avoid a full-blown recession, as inflation eases and consumers and investors realize "they kind of overreacted a bit" to current conditions. But there's also a second Big Interview with a guy named Steve on this show, as Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers says that the market must first find stability in low-risk assets like short-term Treasury bonds before investors can accurately size up riskier assets like stocks. He sees selective opportunities for patient investors right now, while waiting for the Federal Reserve "to take the foot off the brakes," which he thinks will help the market set a bottom and move forward to a rebound. Also on the show, for the second consecutive week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com turns to a managed-futures, commodity-based fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, says that Coivd-19 and its variants remain the biggest issue facing the global economy right now  because it has slowed the U.S. economy more than expected and it continues to drive expectations lower, at a time when rising inflation is a concern that could put a further damper on growth. Despite the uncertainty, Rick remains largely positive on the economy, provided that inflation spikes remain, as he expects, relatively short-lived. Also on the show, Gal Wettstein from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College discusses how long most people have the ability to continue working, Chuck takes a listener's question about why guests sometimes celebrate bad investment ideas, and Jack Murphy, chief investment officer at Easterly Investment Partners looks for contrarian value investments in the Market Call.

The U.S. economy may soon be poised for takeoff, according to Dan Berger, our guest on episode 113 of the CUES Podcast.The efforts of credit unions to serve members at a time of need will continue to be a key factor, says Berger, president/CEO of the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions, Washington, D.C.“I think that we got some more stuff to get through in 2021 in regards to COVID and cranking up the economy and getting more people and to be financially inclusive with the economy,” he explains. “I equate it to laying the runway in 2021 so you can really take off in 2022. But I'm so pleased with this industry, in the CEOs I speak to across the country, in the jobs that they're doing. I mean, it's really been an incredible effort across the board, and I don't see it stopping.“The stories I hear from across the country with, you know, skip-a-pay programs and workout loans and things along those lines,” he continues, “ … that’s the difference between us and the big banks. When people were helping folks even before Congress said they had to do it …. and, in terms of forbearance, this industry has really responded to their members as well as their communities. “Credit unions have come up with very innovative programs to help their members through this,” he says. “And that's where, in the long run, people are going to remember that institution that was there that did a workout loan for them or did some loan modifications for them. They're going to remember that. You can't buy a full-page ad like when Wells Fargo does to try to re-establish trust. You have to build that over time. "And that's what credit unions have," he underscores. "They have this incredible amount of trust, and it's even built upon even further through 2020. And you'll see it throughout 2021 as well.”Berger also says in the show that continued vaccine distribution and targeted stimulus to people who need it will play key roles in getting the economy back on track.The show also gets into:The unemployment situation in 2020, now and going forwardThe importance of taking care of employee so they, in turn, take care of membersThe likely impact of remote work as the world reopensThe increasingly important role of community development financial institutionsHow increased liquidity from deposits of federal stimulus program funds and increased savings due to the pandemic might impact credit union operations and financialsLinks for this showB. Dan Berger on LinkedInNational Association of Federally-Insured Credit UnionsShow transcriptTwo other recent episodes about the economy: 111 with Steve Rick of CUNA Mutual Group and 112 with Bryan Yu of Central 1High Performing Boards Digital SeriesStrategy and Digital Marketing Cornell Certificate Program

Governments around the world have spent more than $14 trillion to try to offset the economic damage of the pandemic, says Bryan Yu, in the latest episode of the CUES Podcast.“In Canada, I think we moved pretty quick,” says Yu, director and chief economist with Central 1 in Vancouver, British Columbia, which leverages its scale, strength and expertise to power progress for more than 250 credit unions and other financial institutions. “We had seen the implementation of the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit, which was largely providing funds for households who were negatively impacted by the pandemic and lost jobs, about $500 per week. So, a significant amount.“We also, of course, see the wage subsidy programs in Canada as well,” he adds in the show. “So employers who lost substantial amounts of business were able to tap the subsidy in order to keep individuals employed.”He estimates that the Canadian government will now have to deal with a $380 billion deficit after the outlay. “But we're also, of course, recognizing that without these measures, we could be in a much worse state at this point,” he says. “We'd have the pandemic plus we'd have a lot of individuals without income, and that would have led to more foreclosures, bankruptcies, etc.”Yu also thinks the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine in Canada will have a significant impact on the economic recovery.“The vaccine will in fact, provide a huge boost for Canada. One of the big differences I think, between the US and Canada right now is that rate of deployment,” he explains. In Canada, “only about 3% of our population has been vaccinated .. and that's really a reflection partly of the countries which are making the vaccines. The US and the UK, of course, are producers. So they are able to deploy much quicker. “But as those vaccines do roll out, I do expect to see that that will finally be able to reopen some of our borders more towards tourism. People will be more willing to go into into more restaurants, really moving back that service-oriented economy back to full capacity. “So that's my hope at this point,” he says. “I think that's going to be driving our move back to a pre-pandemic type of levels within the next two years. I would think there is still going to be a lot of challenges … going forward.”The show also gets into:Unemployment trends in CanadaWhat shifts caused by the pandemic will continue into the futureIdeas managing the coronavirus mutations that have been identifiedThe strengths credit unions have that will help them weather the pandemicThe question of inflation in these timesLinks for this showCentral 1Bryan Yu, director and chief economist at Central 1Episode 111 with guest Steve Rick, director and chief economist at CUNA Mutual GroupHigh Performing Board Digital SeriesStrategy and Digital Marketing Cornell Certificate Program (all online)Episode 112 transcript

As is always true with the economy, there is both good and bad news at once.On episode 111 of the CUES Podcast, Steve Rick says some of the good news is that the jobless rate has dropped back to a rate of 6.3%, after spiking to 14.7% at the height of the pandemic shutdown last year.Director and chief economist at CUESolutions Platinum provider for executive benefits CUNA Mutual Group, Madison, Wisconsin, Rick says economists believe that 4.5% is the “long-run natural employment rate” in the U.S. He is forecasting reaching that rate again by the end of 2022.“We do believe we will reach herd immunity, probably by the fourth quarter of this year … where … 75 to 80% of our population has been vaccinated and is … immune,” he says. “So, we're hoping by the end of this year to have the unemployment rate down to 5.5%.”Some of the bad news Rick cites includes the hard hit taken by retail businesses during the government-mandated shutdowns early in 2020. Many stores, restaurants and movie theaters have been severely disrupted or even permanently shut down in what Rick calls a “retail apocalypse.” While those that closed may never reopen, there is a glimmer of hope here, too. In the January retail sales report, Rick says, “We saw sales pick up 5.3% compared to December. Now, that's a huge jump. … if we can compare this January of 2021 … to January 2020 … before the pandemic, we're up 7.4%. Now, that is a huge increase, 7.4% in spending. … So we're actually seeing a nice recovery already.”Rick projects a jump in gross domestic product this year of about 4.5 percentage points. “So we're going to be making 4.5% more stuff, if you will, then we did last year,” he says. “And last year … we dropped 3.5% in the production of goods and services. So, a nice recovery for 2021. “… if we get another $1,400 stimulus check sometime this spring, you know, if President Biden gets his 1.9 trillion stimulus,” he adds, “we could see a really strong economy going into the second half of this year.”The show also gets into:More on the potential impact of any additional federal stimulus checksIdeas about retraining workers to help counteract unemploymentThe huge surge in member depositsThe answer to a question from CUES member Cynthia Ryan, EVP/COO of Connect Credit Union, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, about how to handle the boost in liquidity from the increase in member depositsThe mortgage refi boom and how many loans to sell on the secondary market in these timesThe potential impact of any forgiveness of federal student loan debtThe importance of cost control and managing net interest margin right nowLinks for this show:Email Steve RickCUESolutions Platinum provider for executive benefits CUNA Mutual Group, Madison, WisconsinCU Management magazine’s monthly CFO Focus columnsCUES Advanced Management Program from Cornell UniversityPartial transcript for Episode 111

Willie Delwiche, investment analyst at Baird, says that the market's technicals are sending a clear message that the market is in an uptrend that is likely to keep rolling, so that 'Getting really negative about the market right now doesn't make any sense.' In the Big Interview, Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual group, notes that while he expected a recession in 2020, it was not for pandemic reasons, but the struggling economy actually addressed his concerns and so the weakness he anticipated won't stand in the way of a recovery from here.Also, Ismat Mangla of MagnifyMoney.com discusses their research into the dividend history -- freeze, cut, hold or increase -- of companies that furloughed workers or reduced payrolls during the coronavirus pandemic, and Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks stocks in the Market Call.

CUNA Mutual chief economist Steve Rick provides his insights and forecasts in AVCU's weekly COVID-19 virtual meeting of Vermont credit union leaders.

The January 2020 episode features An economic outlook for the new year, with Steve Rick, Chief Economist at the CUNA Mutual Group in Madison, Wisconsin; City of Boston Credit Union President/CEO Dan Waltz and VP of Marketing Karla McCarron, discussing their credit union and the many ways it protects members from financial exploitation; and Kurt Czarnowski of Czarnowski Consulting on preparing for retirement and your Social Security benefits.

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group and an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, talks about the current economy in glowing terms and says he sees strength continuing without interruption or a recession for the foreseeable future, noting that even as economic growth slows, he can see a strong rebound on the horizon for 2023. Thus, while there are potential storm clouds, he doesn't see them lasting for long if they hit home at all. Also on the show, Mitch Reiner of Capital Investment Advisors talks about income investing in The NAVigator, Tom Lydon makes a brand new specialty fund his ETF of the Week, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com talks about who is affected by bank fees and how much they're paying, and  Zach Johnson of Stack Financial Management covers the market's technical outlook.

The January 2020 episode features: An economic outlook for the new year, with Steve Rick, Chief Economist at the CUNA Mutual Group in Madison, Wisconsin; City of Boston Credit Union President/CEO Dan Waltz and VP of Marketing Karla McCarron, discussing their credit union and the many ways it protects members from financial exploitation; and Kurt Czarnowski of Czarnowski Consulting on preparing for retirement and your Social Security benefits.

This week, we explore the Big Wild from Minnesota to Australia. Featured guest Regan Pittman, All-American volleyball player, teaches fishing in Minnesota, Steve Rick of Buck and Boar Outfitters shares his experience wit

Rick joins his friend (and guide for Rick's bus tours through Turkey), to learn about the ancient home of the Ephesians — one of the world’s greatest classical sites. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Rick joins his friend (and guide for Rick's bus tours through Turkey), to learn about the ancient home of the Ephesians — one of the world's greatest classical sites. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Germany’s parliament building, or “Reichstag,” is the symbolic heart of German democracy. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Germany's parliament building, or “Reichstag,” is the symbolic heart of German democracy. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

In this clip from Rick's Holy Land special, we visit Hebron's Tomb of Abraham to see how two communities struggle to be near this sacred site. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

In this clip from Rick's Holy Land special, we visit Hebron's Tomb of Abraham to see how two communities struggle to be near this sacred site. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Rick visits a restaurant in the Loire's Amboise to enjoy traditional French cuisine, including duck, escargot, and an abundant cheese course. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Rick visits a restaurant in the Loire's Amboise to enjoy traditional French cuisine, including duck, escargot, and an abundant cheese course. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

On this leg of the Cinque Terre hike, we descend from ridge-top Corniglia to coastal Manarola. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

On this leg of the Cinque Terre hike, we descend from ridge-top Corniglia to coastal Manarola. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Rick joins his Czech tour guide for a sweep through Prague Castle, St. Vitus Cathedral, and the tomb of St. Wenceslas. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Rick joins his Czech tour guide for a sweep through Prague Castle, St. Vitus Cathedral, and the tomb of St. Wenceslas. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Galilee is famous as the place where Jesus did his three years of ministry, and where so many Bible stories were set. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Galilee is famous as the place where Jesus did his three years of ministry, and where so many Bible stories were set. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Konya is one of the oldest, most conservative, and religious cities in the world. It's the home of 13th-century Muslim philosopher Mevlana, whose followers whirl in a meditative trance. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Konya is one of the oldest, most conservative, and religious cities in the world. It's the home of 13th-century Muslim philosopher Mevlana, whose followers whirl in a meditative trance. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

We stroll along Delft's idyllic canals and markets, and see how its famous Delftware porcelain is made. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

We stroll along Delft's idyllic canals and markets, and see how its famous Delftware porcelain is made. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Padova's Scrovegni Chapel, with its precious 14th-century Giotto frescoes, is one of Italy’s most beloved art treasures. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Padova's Scrovegni Chapel, with its precious 14th-century Giotto frescoes, is one of Italy's most beloved art treasures. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

The Berlin Wall Memorial and Museum House at Checkpoint Charlie educate visitors about Berlin's tumultuous 20th century. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

The Berlin Wall Memorial and Museum House at Checkpoint Charlie educate visitors about Berlin's tumultuous 20th century. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

It seems every king, queen, and emperor since has loved this palace — Louis XIII was born here, Louis XV was married here — but Fontainebleau has more Napoleon Bonaparte connections than any other palace. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

It seems every king, queen, and emperor since has loved this palace — Louis XIII was born here, Louis XV was married here — but Fontainebleau has more Napoleon Bonaparte connections than any other palace. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

The Van Gogh Museum houses the 200 paintings owned by Vincent's younger brother, Theo — laid out as the story of Vincent's life. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

The Van Gogh Museum houses the 200 paintings owned by Vincent’s younger brother, Theo — laid out as the story of Vincent's life. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Prague's Old Town Square is filled with beautifully preserved landmarks: the Gothic Týn Church, a memorial to Jan Hus, and a 15-century Astronomical Clock. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Prague’s Old Town Square is filled with beautifully preserved landmarks: the Gothic Týn Church, a memorial to Jan Hus, and a 15-century Astronomical Clock. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Güzelyurt is the kind of discovery I love to feature in my guidebooks — almost no tourism, lots of history, plenty of character. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Güzelyurt is the kind of discovery I love to feature in my guidebooks — almost no tourism, lots of history, plenty of character. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Tel Aviv is a young, modern city with gleaming new buildings, a beautiful beach scene, and delicious, locally-sourced cuisine. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Tel Aviv is a young, modern city with gleaming new buildings, a beautiful beach scene, and delicious, locally-sourced cuisine. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Ramallah hosts the Palestinian government and international agencies, and is filled with positive energy from the students at nearby Birzeit University. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.

Ramallah hosts the Palestinian government and international agencies, and is filled with positive energy from the students at nearby Birzeit University. At www.ricksteves.com, you'll find money-saving travel tips, small-group tours, guidebooks, TV shows, radio programs, podcasts, and more on this destination.