Ainslie Intelligence

Will Bitcoin long term holders surrender and sell their coins? With many signals suggesting a widespread capitulation has taken place, attention turns to whether a Bitcoin bottom is forming. CHARTS: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/will-long-term-btc-holders-surrender-/tabid/88/a/2801/default.aspx

Recent low gold prices have many scratching their heads amid rampant inflation and a war. However there are some key fundamental indicators that suggest this bottoming may be short lived and has Goldman Sachs calling for $2500 USD gold soon. ARTICLE & IMAGES MENTIONED: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/goldman-sachs-call-us-242500-gold-soon/tabid/88/a/2800/default.aspx

Billions of dollars worth of gold has been found perfectly preserved on the ocean floor. The legendary San Jose galleon shipwreck was first discovered in 2015, but new technology has uncovered up to 200 tonnes of gold, silver and emeralds. ARTICLE & LINKS: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/billions-worth-of-gold-found-in-shipwreck/tabid/88/a/2799/default.aspx https://opensea.io/collection/goldsilverpirates www.goldsilverstandard.com

Commodity prices are collapsing this week and the Australian dollar plunged to a 2yr low. With more interest rate hikes likely, it's ramping up mortgage repayments and the cost of living. Are gold and silver the long term safe haven? - ainsliebullion.com.au CHARTS AND IMAGES SHOWN: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/mortgages-and-commodities-under-pressure-ahead-of-recession/tabid/88/a/2798/default.aspx

In Australia, commentators are calling for the 2020s to be the new 1850s in "Gold Rush 2.0". And it's lucky we have plenty of gold in the ground... as our reserves are only a 22hr flight away at the Bank of England! CHARTS AND IMAGES SHOWN: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-rush-2-0-and-australia-e2-80-99s-reserves-/tabid/88/a/2797/default.aspx LINKS MENTIONED: https://www.rba.gov.au/qa/gold-holding.html

Only HODLers remain as the Bitcoin price has locked in one of the worst monthly performances in history, with renewed interest in safe storage options. CHARTS & DIAGRAMS MENTIONED: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/only-hodlers-remain-e2-80-a6/tabid/88/a/2796/default.aspx

Dramatic images of almost a hundred thousand protestors have broken out in Belgium as inflation has now crossed 10% in June. These civil uprisings have been mirrored worldwide this month as supply chains reach breaking point and the purchasing power of government issued fiat currencies continue to weaken. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/major-protests-in-belgium-against-the-rising-cost-of-living/tabid/88/a/2795/default.aspx

We look at the FY22 year for Australia and some of the shocking data out of the broader global economy for the second half. We briefly discuss going forward too.. Read article here https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/fy22-in-review/tabid/88/a/2794/default.aspx

With China, India, Brazil and South Africa wondering if they will be next in line to suffer sanctions, the BRICS nations are forming a viable alternative to the US Dollar for international settlements. Speaking at the BRICS Business Forum on Wednesday, Putin stated “The matter of creating the international reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of our countries is under review.” This is the most formalised movement towards a global environment that functions largely without the US Dollar. Saudi Arabia has been in talks for most of the year to sell Oil denominated in Chinese Yuan, and Nigeria is already making those trades. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/brics-nations-forming-usd-alternative/tabid/88/a/2793/default.aspx

Another shocker on Wall Street last night with heavy falls across the board. The only thing positive was the USD and some commodities, and gold was pretty much flat but up in AUD terms. So what happened this time? https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/earnings-flag-more-pain-to-come/tabid/88/a/2792/default.aspx

Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin are at all-time lows, signalling potential floor formation. Many are even trading at levels with single-digit percentage points of prior history at similar levels. So, it begs the question, is this the bottom?

In a Capitol Hill hearing Powell was asked yesterday: “Would you say that the war in Ukrain is the primary driver of inflation in America?” Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded: “No. Inflation was high before, certainly before the ware in Ukraine broke out.” The President speaking at the White House later revealed that Congress knew that sanctions would lead to higher gas prices.” Fuel costs bleed into every aspect of consumption leading to greater inflation and reduced purchasing power of currencies. The only question is when precious metals will pop in this highly inflationary environment.

With 7 days left for the first half of this year, the S&P500 is posting its second worst H1 in history behind a little crash you may have heard of called the Great Depression. US Treasuries go back to 1788 to see a worse H1. We look at where the traditional ‘60/40 portfolio' sits and compare to gold…

Yesterday we heard the RBA chief assure us "I don't see a recession on the horizon”. As we have seen repeatedly since the GFC, central banks have deployed ‘words' as much as rates and QE in an effort to control markets. Commonly called ‘jawboning', is that what Mr Lowe is trying on us, is it true, and if not what does a recession mean?

There are some analysts that think the only thing you need to look at to know where the price of gold and silver are going is the weekly Commitment of Traders report that presents all the positions of the big players on COMEX futures. It just got “wildly bullish”…

The Bitcoin market has reeled from a massive deleveraging event this week, falling below the 2017 US$20k ATH. Both on-chain DeFi markets and off-chain entities deleveraged. Exchanges, lenders, and hedge funds were rendered insolvent, illiquid, or liquidated.

Another night of deep red on Wall Street last night and another night of gold and silver price strength in the face of it. Markets were rocked by the surprise rate hike of 50bps by the Swiss National Bank but more particularly the expected sell off of their mountain of US shares, particularly the ultra vulnerable FAANGs they've gone heavy on. The NASDAQ ended the session down 4.1%. But it wasn't the Swiss alone. More broadly we are seeing a set up mirroring the huge gold rallies of the 70's and 2000's.

The US Fed has a new yarn to spin you. After months and months of trying to convince the market that inflation was just ‘transitory' despite all the data, Fed Chair Powell was last night, with a straight face, telling us: “There is no sign of a broader slowdown in the economy that I can see.” Meeting market expectations they hiked rates by a still huge 75bps, the biggest hike since 1994. We discuss why shares rallied and what's ahead…

Its Monday morning so lets keep the words to a minimum and check out some compelling charts for gold and silver and where they sit right now.

The reason our mantra is “Balance your wealth in an unbalanced world” is because in such unprecedented times it should be expected that experts can have such divergent theses on ‘what's next'. On Monday we spoke to the thesis of Raoul Pal and others of recession, disinflation, Fed easing and risk-on. Today we talk to Crescat's thesis of recession, sustained inflation, sustained rate hikes, and commodities boom.

There are conflicting views amongst experts around where this unprecedented economic setup ends. Much of the market is sitting on its hands unsure as to what to. Ray Dalio last week reminded us that ‘cash is trash' so where does one invest now?

It's now official. After the NASDAQ long since crossed the rubicon, the world's biggest equities index, the US S&P500 officially turned to bear market having cross the 20% loss line on Friday night. Having reached this juncture after just 2 of the 10 rate hikes predicted and BEFORE any quantitative tightening even starts… the question on everyone's lips is how strong will the Fed hold its ‘we will not capitulate to save the financial markets' stance?

More red on Wall Street last night on growing concerns about the US economy and its ability to handle higher rates. Whilst ending the session lower the S&P500 again miraculously bounced off the -20% bear market line in the sand without crossing it. However the night was more notable for the surge in both gold and bitcoin against that trend, and likewise bonds bid meaning lower yields in the face of rising rates. We discuss the set up for gold in particular right now.

Sri Lanka is now running out of petrol. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe warns that the nation has no US dollar reserves and they are now planning to sell their national airline. Shortages are far from confined to Sri Lanka with Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, warning MPs on Monday that the Central Bank has warned of ‘apocalyptic' food price hikes and that the central bank was helpless in fighting food shortages driven by external shocks such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and supply chain issues caused by the zero covid policy in China.

The Bitcoin market experienced a week for the history books, with the $40B LUNA/UST project hyper-inflating and collapsing, 80k BTC sold by LFG, and the Tether $1 peg coming under pressure. Let's review the last week…

Its hard to pick up a paper or read the news without headlines around plummeting auction clearance rates, stalled house sales, predictions of big house price falls, and then late last week we got the ABS stats showing new home and construction finance commitments literally halved from the ‘HomeBuilder' stimulus February 2021 peak and likewise dwelling approvals down 36% year on year. Futures markets have rates rising over 120% on their current levels and we discuss where that sits historically and practically.

Never a dull night on global markets lately… Last night was again a sea of red. The only green was yet again the US dollar (at near 20 year highs) and big cap crypto (coming off massive falls). The S&P500 rallied a little late to avoid falling into an official bear market (20% off recent highs) by just 2bps and the NASDAQ long left the bear market station down 32% and now its biggest fall since the GFC.

Less words more charts today as we hit some very interesting junctures in precious metals markets.

Last night continued the biggest sharemarket whipsaw since peak COVD turmoil in mid 2020. After the biggest Fed day surge in 44 years on Wednesday night, last night saw the biggest drop since June 2020 with the NASDAQ down 6% at its worst and 5% at close. The S&P500 was down over 3.5% as well and to complete the reversal of ‘all things' bonds tanked (yields shot up), the other safe haven of gold also fell back below US$1900, and the USD surged to wipe out yesterday's gains but saw a much weaker AUD and gold hold steady in AUD terms. So what on earth is going on?

Philip Lowe, Chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced yesterday that the cash rate target is now 0.35%, with real rates still very negative. This was the first rate rise since November 2010. The time has come to start withdrawing some of the ‘extraordinary monetary support' that has been injected into the economy since early 2020. They are now forecasting inflation to peak at 6% in 2022 after annualised inflation in the last month came to 5.1%.

Bitcoin investors are hanging onto the edge of profitability, with short-term price action threatening to put them back into the red. Meanwhile, a constructive confluence of macro indicators is developing into a clearer picture of a potential bear market floor.

Last night's shock news of the US falling into recessionary territory with a negative GDP print was a salient reminder of both the precariousness of the world's biggest economy and the farce that is a sharemarket RALLYING on the news likely because they think it will force a reversal of the Fed's tightening! Importantly gold rallied (despite an also stronger USD) as it called BS on the shares' “bad news is good news” hope rally. As we reported yesterday Crescat Capital released their latest monthly research letter late last week and today we look further into it.

Crescat Capital released their latest monthly research letter late last week and as usual it provides clear and concise insight into macro markets at present backed up with ‘runs on the board' through the outperformance of their funds.

Speaking on Bloomberg Asia, Founding Partner at Swiss Asia Capital Singapore dropped a number of bombshells in the live interview. In a case of the ‘tail wagging the dog', outsized silver futures and options leverage outnumber the physical metal more than 100:1. Base metal inventories are quickly running out despite increasing global demand. Finally, of all the metals markets, gold at present spot prices is the bargain of the century, as $5-figure gold will be needed to stabilise global markets in a new currency realignment.

The Yen may be one of the first dominoes to fall as the Japanese fiat currency has nose-dived in terms of gold purchasing power, even since the August 2020 highs. Sri Lanka has defaulted on US$35.5bn of foreign debt as sharp commodity price rises lead to massive social unrest. In Europe, the Netherlands Chief CPI statistician blames high energy prices on ‘Putin'.

Over the last couple of days both the IMF and World Bank have heavily downgraded global economic growth forecasts whilst both acknowledging and, ironically proposing to fuel more inflation with more stimulation. Hello stagflation…

The Bitcoin market traded lower this week, coming off an opening high of $47,102, and slipping to a low of $42,183. This market weakness follows a relatively modest price break-out from the multi-month consolidation range that has been established since mid-January.

The AUS and AGS tokens have come a long way since their inception as an ERC-20 token. The natural evolution of the project was to create a series of gold and silver-backed NFTs. Much like how large bullion minters will produce limited runs of special coins, Gold and Silver Standard NFTs give the underlying precious metals artistic value even rarer than the metal itself – with enhanced visuals and a professional tone.

No doubt over the last few months we have all heard the acronym NFT. It became the buzzword of the crypto-space, with some believing it was just the flavour of the season in a hype-driven market. But, there's more to it… let's explore.

The Bitcoin market pulled back this week after a break-out from the multi-month consolidation range. Prices have thus far struggled to find sustained upside momentum, and there are indications of a modest volume of profit taken by market participants. Let's dive into the BTC market's onchain dynamics…

Late last week the FOMC minutes from the previous meeting were made public. In them we found that Fed chairs are targeting a maximum of $95bn in balance sheet reduction per month starting in May. The figure is made up of $60bn in treasuries and $35bn in mortgage-backed securities. The minutes also made it clear that inflation is recognised as a major problem, and rate hikes are likely to be 50 basis points at each meeting as opposed to the standard 25.

The World Gold Council just released their figures for both the month of March and also Q1 of 2022. Unsurprisingly given the global geopolitical events and inflation issues before us gold demand was the highest seen in years.

In 1973 Nixon and Kissenger saved the Dollar by instating the Petrodollar with the Saudis. In return for military support from the US, the Saudi royal family agreed to only sell oil in Dollars. In 1973 the Saudis were the largest energy producer and the US the biggest consumer. It made sense for the two to set the tone. However, in 2022, the picture is very different. Russian gas and oil holds sway and the Chinese are purchasing.

Yesterday's Reserve Bank of Australia meeting marked a clear turning point for the Aussie central bank. The same bank that not long ago promised we wouldn't see rising rates for ‘years' has been doggedly playing its “patience” card of maintaining an all time low cash rate of 0.1% amid the inflationary onslaught and bubble like housing market. Yesterday “patience” was very clearly removed from the narrative. We discuss

As the 19 millionth bitcoin is mined, several large public buyers have sparked renewed interest in Bitcoin as pristine collateral. Shrimps and Whales are leading widespread coin accumulation, alongside the Luna Foundation Guard who added over 21k BTC to their balance in nine days. Let's review how far BTC has come in its short history.

On Friday we shared the very solid year to date performance of gold this year (and every year since 2000) in a variety of currencies. What is particularly important to note is that the performance of gold this year has been achieved ostensibly with relatively limited ETF involvement as equities traders may have just pivoted from growth to value shares and not yet gold with gusto. We share more of the In Gold We Trust preview charts to illustrate.

On Monday and Wednesday we stepped through the setup for stagflation in the US, the now ‘baked in' recession to happen soon and how various assets perform in that environment. We shared preview charts from the highly anticipated In Gold We Trust annual. To address any view things may have changed, overnight we saw more new evidence emerge with the Fed's preferred inflation measure being released and confirmation spending is dropping. We also share gold's performance in various currencies this century.

Russia is demanding payment in Rubles for Oil and Gas with a number of Finance Ministers from NATO countries pushing back. With rumours swirling of Russia taking payment in gold or bitcoin for oil and gas, the Russian Central Bank is buying gold from banks at a rate of 5,000 Rubles per gram (AU$2170/oz) from 28 March to 30 June. Putin has argued that trust in the US Dollar has taken a major blow, and that many countries are now starting to convert their paper assets into real reserves of raw materials, land, food and gold.

On Monday we talked to asset performance in a stagflationary environment. Since then we have seen nearly the entire spectrum of US Treasury bonds invert, an event with a 100% track record of ushering in a new recession. Today we look into why and what happens next.

The Bitcoin market has seen a stronger week, rallying off the lows of $40,710 US, and breaking out of the consolidation range to a new local high of $47,649. This is the first sustained rally after many months of sideways choppy price action.

Each year one of the most eagerly anticipated annuals is the In Gold We Trust report from Switzerland's Incrementum. As has been the case for a few years now they are pre releasing a teaser chart pack of what's to come without any written explanation. As we noted last week, the set up now with persistent inflation and slowing growth is that dreaded financial bogey-man, stagflation. We discuss how various assets perform in such an environment.