Podcasts about crescat

Is gold still undervalued, even after hitting record highs? Tavi Costa says yes, and makes the case for $20,000+ gold. In this insightful interview, Crescat Capital's macro strategist Tavi Costa joins Trey Reik to explain why we're in the early stages of a “Great Rotation” out of overvalued U.S. equities and into hard assets like gold, silver, and commodities. Tavi also lays out why traditional 60/40 portfolios are set to underperform for years, how U.S. debt levels and deglobalization are pressuring the dollar, and why central banks (and possibly even the U.S. Treasury) are quietly turning back to gold. He also reveals: - Why the 2-year Treasury yield could collapse - Why the S&P 500's best years may be behind it - Why silver may be “the cheapest metal on Earth” - And how AI, onshoring, and infrastructure needs are creating a boom in commodity demand Chapters:01:09 - Crescat's Three‑Pronged Strategy 05:45 - Defining the “Great Market Rotation” 10:14 - What's Driving Crescat's 2025 Outperformance 13:38 - Why the 60/40 Portfolio Is in Trouble 16:49 - Commodities vs. Equities: The Historic Discount 20:36 - Three Forces Fueling Gold's Surge 24:36 - Why This Gold Cycle Could Be the Biggest Yet 30:03 - When Will It Be Time to Sell Gold? 36:32 - Valuing Gold: A $20K+ Playbook? 41:25 - Gold's Role in the Next Monetary System 44:48 - 2025 Outlook: Rates, Commodities, and Markets 47:35 - Is Silver the Cheapest Metal on Earth? Volatility got you concerned? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/3SBaGpv Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Gold #Silver #Commodities #MacroEconomics #DeDollarization #GreatRotation #TaviCosta #EconomicShift #MonetaryPolicy #MarketOutlook #Mag7 ________________________________________________________________________ The opinions and information shared by Tavi in this discussion are his own, and not necessarily those of Crescat. Any investments discussed may or may not be held by Crescat. Investments carry risk including risk of loss. ________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, to discuss the current state of gold, silver, mining stocks, and broader economic trends. Costa emphasizes that despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions in gold, the underlying macroeconomic factors point to continued strength in precious metals. He highlights the role of central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Russia, and Turkey, which have been significant buyers of gold. Costa argues that gold's revaluation is driven by global debt imbalances, de-globalization trends, and countries seeking to stabilize their monetary systems. He also explains how higher gold prices can increase the U.S. Treasury's cash reserves, enabling buybacks of Treasuries without quantitative easing, which he believes will be a critical tool for managing debt. Costa is bullish on mining stocks, noting they are historically undervalued relative to U.S. equities and have outperformed over the past decade. He suggests that as global infrastructure needs grow and supply chains shift, mining companies will play a crucial role in meeting demand for essential commodities. Additionally, he points out the attractive valuations of silver, given its high gold-to-silver ratio, which he believes could lead to significant price appreciation. The discussion also touches on the U.S. dollar's structural downtrend, driven by high debt levels and interest payment burdens, and how this impacts emerging markets positively. Costa predicts that lower yields on short-term Treasuries will benefit miners and other sectors. He concludes by advocating for increased exposure to energy stocks due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:38 - Technical Bear Signals?5:54 - Monetizing U.S. Assets11:08 - Gold Re-Valuation Chart15:00 - Tariffs & Fed Policy20:08 - Dollar Struct Downtrend26:10 - Mining Stock Value31:30 - A Correction Coming?35:33 - GS Ratio Imbalances40:09 - Gaining Metal Exposure43:43 - Education & Sentiment47:00 - Mkt. Rotation & Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/tavicostaX: https://x.com/crescat_capitalWebsite: https://crescat.net Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Host: Tracy Shuchart for MicDropMarketsGuests: Tavi CostaTavi is a Member and Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He is responsible for developing Crescat's macro models as part of our thematic investment process. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Real Vision, and others.Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in FinanceJennifer ShaigecJennifer began her professional career in 1998 as an analyst on TC Energy's Calgary trading floor. After taking a hiatus to focus on raising her three children, she returned to the workforce and established herself as a successful junior mining stock speculator. Jennifer serves as the Principal of Sandpiper Trading, a family fund focused exclusively on small-cap resource equities that has consistently generated impressive returns since its inception.A regular contributor to media platforms like CommonStock, Jennifer's expertise and engaging style have made her a sought-after moderator for industry executives on X spaces.Leveraging her extensive social media reach, Jennifer raises awareness about critical issues such as supply chain challenges and declining enrollment in post-secondary extractive industry programs. Her commitment to these causes highlights her dedication to the sustainable development and future of the natural resource sector.Disclaimer: This material is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, or any related financial instruments. Please contact a licensed professional before making any investment or trading decisions

Matteo Ghini Blomberg er med-gründer og CTO i Crescat, et selskap som lager programvare som brukes i planlegging og gjennomføring av kulturarrangement. Han kommer med mange interessante observasjonar rundt forretningsdrift i arrangements-sektoren. Her jobber man med en ekstrem-variant av prosjektarbeid, for mange på permanent basis! Samarbeid mellom ulike fagfelt står høyt i kurs, silotankegang er ikke et så stort probleme i denne bransjen som det er i mange andre bransjer. Samtidig - denne koordineringen krever data-deling utover å dele et Excel-regneark. Takk for en interessant samtale Matteo, lykke til fremover! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

“Oil looks even more attractive than gold right now” says portfolio manager Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital. Tavi Costa shares that even though he expects gold over $2900/oz and silver touching over $40/oz before year-end 2024, he is even more bullish oil and possibly other non-precious metals. A year from now, Tavi sees inflation running significantly higher while the Federal Reserve refuses to rate interest rates. When this happens, metals and commodity prices will run higher, he anticipates. Tavi also reveals Crescat's approach to portfolio allocation in the mining sector. Tavi is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He is responsible for developing Crescat's macro models as part of our thematic investment process. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Real Vision, and others. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University. 0:00 Introduction 1:01 US Interest Payments 4:18 Foreign ownership of US Debt 9:59 CBDCs role in the future 17:45 Mieli Effect? 24:46 Is Brazil the next economy to truly emerge? 27:15 Tensions in the Middle East 28:44 Silver 29:54 Oil is more attractive than gold now 31:15 AI potentially fixes USA debt problem 34:46 Inflation vs Metal Prices 41:13 Crescat Portfolio Allocation 48:44 Gold Price above US$2900/oz? 49:09 Silver Price above US$40/oz? 50:38 Crescat's Live Market Call Crescat Capital: https://www.crescat.net/ Tavi's Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Mining Stock Education (MSE) offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. If you buy stock in a company featured on MSE, for your own protection, you should assume that it is MSE's owner personally selling you that stock. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

In dieser spannenden Folge des Karriere Insider Podcasts spricht David Döbele mit Oliver Böhm, Co-Founder von CRESCAT Advisory und Dozent an der Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. Oliver teilt spannende Insights aus seiner Karriere in der M&A-Beratung aus unternehmerischer Sicht.   Hier findet ihr Olivers LinkedIn-Profil: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oliver-b%C3%B6hm-9ba60228/ Hier geht es zur Website von CRESCAT Advisory: https://www.crescat-advisory.de/   Timestamps:   00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:23 - Olivers Werdegang 00:06:50 - Einstieg in die M&A-Abteilung eines Medienunternehmens 00:18:03 - Der M&A-Prozess in a Nutshell 00:24:36 - Wechsel in eine M&A-Abteilung einer Wirtschaftsprüfung 00:28:32 - Gründung von CRESCAT 00:32:42 - CRESCAT gewinnt Kunden über Netzwerke 00:39:08 - Ablauf und durchschnittlichen Investitionssummen 00:48:38 - M&A Buy Side 01:01:34 - CRESCAT heute (Team, Aufbau, Entwicklung) 01:08:29 - Oliver reflektiert über seinen Karriereweg 01:17:35 - Work-Life-Balance 01:23:10 - Q&A 01:33:45 - Outro   Weitere hilfreiche YouTube-Videos:   INVESTMENT BANKER WERDEN (Guide): https://youtu.be/nT0haK_NCIc  UNTERNEHMENSBERATER WERDEN (Guide): https://youtu.be/50Hg3nO09HA  Die besten Unis für den Bachelor: https://youtu.be/n-YSo8ss0Ks  Die besten Unis für den Master: https://youtu.be/fdKknPZzO4w  ALLE JOBS NACH DEM BWL-STUDIUM: https://youtu.be/D1Ssf6uAQlY  ALLE FINANCE JOBS nach dem BWL-Studium: https://youtu.be/6kD05whSvEU  Wenn du dich für den Berufseinstieg in Investment Banking, Unternehmensberatung oder Private Equity interessierst, haben wir hier einige nützliche Links für dich zusammengefasst.   BWL-Masterplan: https://bwl-masterplan.com/ Der BWL-Masterplan ist ein 11-stündiger Videokurs, der dir sehr übersichtlich aufzeigt, was dich während eines ambitionierten BWL-Studiums erwartet. Kostenpunkt: 49€, hat man schnell wieder drin.   Target-Uni-Report: https://pumpkincareers.com/target-uni-report In diesem kostenfreien PDF-Report bekommst du eine Übersicht über alle besonders empfehlenswerten Unis für ein BWL-Studium in der DACH-Region (inkl. Studiengebühren, namhafte Alumni, etc.).   Investment Banking Analyst Report: https://pumpkincareers.com/investment-banking-analyst-report Für diesen Report hat pumpkincareers® die LinkedIn-Profile sämtlicher Personen analysiert, die 2019 bis Anfang 2021 bei einer der folgenden Firmen in Frankfurt a.M. als Investment Banking Analysten eingestiegen sind: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclays, Rothschild und Lazard. Du erfährst genau, an welchen Unis diese Leute studiert haben, wie viele Praktika sie benötigt haben, etc. - sehr zu empfehlen für jeden, der im Investment Banking einsteigen will.   Consulting Einsteiger Report: https://pumpkincareers.com/consulting-report Auch in diesem Report wurden LinkedIn-Profile analysiert, dieses mal von über 1.200 Personen, die 2019 bis Mitte 2021 bei einer der folgenden Firmen in Deutschland, Österreich oder der Schweiz im Consulting nach dem Bachelor oder Master eingestiegen sind: Bain & Company, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Kearney, McKinsey & Company, Oliver Wyman, Roland Berger oder Strategy&. Du erfährst wieder genau, an welchen Unis diese Leute studiert haben, wie viele Praktika sie benötigt haben, etc. - sehr zu empfehlen für jeden, der in der Strategieberatung einsteigen will.   Eine Gesamt-Übersicht über alle unsere bisher veröffentlichten Reports findest du übrigens hier: https://pumpkincareers.com/reports/ Schau gerne auch noch in unserem Blog vorbei: https://pumpkincareers.com/blog/   Falls du Fragen hast, die du persönlich mit uns besprechen willst, kannst du uns gerne auch auf LinkedIn (David Döbele, Jonas Stegh) oder Instagram (@pumpkincareers, @david.doebele) anschreiben.   LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/14829236/

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, for an enlightening conversation about the gold industry and commodity space. Costa expresses his views on the current market landscape, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could signal a structural bear market for the US dollar, with significant consequences for inflation, gold, and emerging market stocks. He also explores the potential labor market weakness and its possible link to an impending recession, emphasizing the significance of investing in industries with compelling growth prospects. Costa delves into the subject of gold and silver markets, debating the importance of focusing on percentage gains versus supply and demand factors. He points out the long-term underperformance of the mining industry relative to gold due to a dearth of new discoveries, delayed capital flows from larger miners to smaller ones, and the general reluctance to invest in this sector. Despite these hurdles, Tavi remains hopeful about the future of the mining industry, viewing it as a promising venture rather than a mere gamble. He stress the value of acquiring expertise, focusing on scalability, and keeping abreast of market developments. When it comes to assessing miners, explorers, and developers, Tavi advocates for zeroing in on successful ventures and overlooked assets for potential value creation. Costa voices his concerns about analysts' inconsistent forecasts, particularly with respect to gold prices and future earnings, regarding this disparity as a lucrative opportunity for savvy investors. He also delves into the role of royalty companies in the mining industry and their influence on various sectors. Tavi stress the significance of recognizing incentives and their impact on industry dynamics. Lastly, they explores the substantial decline in mining investment and the repercussions of government funding and Chinese competition in securing mining assets. Tavi expresses enthusiasm for the prospective rewards in the mining sector. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:55 - Market Turning Point4:23 - Weak Dollar Outlook11:04 - Labor & Job Numbers15:34 - Inflation & Commodities22:00 - 2024 P.M. Performance29:33 - Gold Vs. Miners35:03 - Investment or Speculation39:33 - Analyzing Mine Sector48:36 - Royalty Plays?51:53 - Shift to Resources59:06 - Strategic Metals1:07:28 - Capital Necessities1:10:16 - Chinese Investment1:12:36 - Vision & Success1:14:12 - Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/tavicostaX: https://x.com/crescat_capitalWebsite: https://crescat.net Talking Points From This Episode Tavi Costa predicts a US dollar bear market due to Fed rate cuts, impacting gold, inflation, and emerging markets. Tavi emphasizes expertise, scalability, and market knowledge for success in mining industry. Tavi Costa sees potential in overlooked mining assets, despite challenges like analyst uncertainty and declining capital investment. Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Host: Tracy Shuchart Guests: Tony Greer and Kevin Smith Tony Greer Tony began his career in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank then moved on to join Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader. He returned to New York to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs. Where he managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and in futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile ExchangeHe has worked for prop firms and the NYSE trading floor. In August of of 2016 Tony launched TG Macro to create an independent research firm where he could combine 25 years in trading and 15 years writing a daily newsletter into one analytical platform. Tony provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to a group of institutional clients and a personal subscriber base.Kevin Smith Kevin is the Founder and CIO of Crescat Capital. He has been managing investment portfolios since 1992, a career spanning multiple business cycles. Kevin has been the lead Portfolio Manager of Crescat's five investment strategies since their respective inceptions. He is the creator of Crescat's firmwide global macro investment process and systematic equity valuation model. Prior to founding Crescat, he worked as a Wealth Advisor with Kidder Peabody. He earned an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business with a specialization in Finance and a concentration in Statistics. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.Disclaimer: This material is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, or any related financial instruments. Please contact a licensed professional before making any investment or trading decisions

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to discuss the potential for a bull market in precious metals, particularly gold and silver. They believe that the current undervaluation of the metals and mining industry, coupled with various macroeconomic trends, presents an attractive investment opportunity. Tavi highlights the potential for increased M&A activity in the gold mining sector and the importance of finding major discoveries in the juniors. They also discuss the potential impact of ESG policies and green agendas on gold production. Tavi Costa suggests that silver is worth paying attention to, citing factors such as increased imports from India and declining production from Peru and Mexico. He sees silver as a monetary and inflationary hedge. They discuss the macroeconomic indicators pointing towards a potential recession, as well as potential opportunities in the commodity space. Tavi Costa offers insights into the Argentine and Brazilian economies and suggests potential solutions to currency and investment issues in Brazil. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:33 - Bullish Technicals2:45 - Confirmation Levels6:00 - Majors & Mine Reserves9:23 - Miners Diversifying?11:32 - Mining Seasonality13:26 - Capital Rotation16:24 - Setup For Silver Miners18:00 - India Silver Imports19:38 - Fundamentals Vs. Technicals23:00 - Commodities to Equity Ratio28:23 - Commodities & Inflation33:20 - U.S. Bond Issuances38:10 - Inverted Yield Curve41:30 - Recession & Soft Landings43:45 - Politics in Argentina49:08 - Inflationary Eras51:38 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Tavi discusses the opportunity for investors in the metals and mining industry. Macroeconomic developments and market changes indicate a potential recession in the near future, and further inflation appears to remain an issue. The cost of capital will be an important question if inflation remains high, and that in five to ten years, the changes in the market will be more obvious. ► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital► Website https://crescat.net► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Interview recorded - 18th of September, 2023On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Tavi Costa - Partner and Portfolio manager of Crescat Capital.During our conversation we spoke about what Tavi is currently watching, the potential macroeconomic shift, what this means for current portfolio, assets which will perform during this period and more!0:00 - Introduction2:01 - What is Tavi watching in markets?6:44 - Macroeconomic shift that is occurring?11:20 - Are markets underestimating shift or could things go back to norm?18:42 - Why will value investors work this time?24:19 - What alternatives to the 60/40 portfolio?30:05 - How does Tavi invest in miners?37:50 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?Tavi is a Member and Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He is responsible for developing Crescat's macro models as part of our thematic investment process. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Real Vision, and others. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.Tavi Costa - Twitter - https://twitter.com/tavicosta?lang=enCrescat - https://www.crescat.net/Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

New Found Gold released assay results from 31 drill holes this morning. New drill results from Canadian Critical Mienrals. CopperCorp consolidates an area of Tasmania. Rob McEwen and Crescat are participating in a Goliath Resources financing. We'd like to thank our sponsors: Western Copper and Gold is focused on developing the world-class Casino project in Canada's Yukon Territory. The Casino project consists of an impressive 11 billion pounds of copper and 21 million ounces of gold in an overall resource. Western Copper and Gold trades on the TSX and the NYSE American with WRN. Be sure to follow the company via their website, www.westerncopperandgold.com. Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (ASCU:TSX) is focused on developing its brownfield copper project on private land in Arizona, a tier 1 location. The Cactus Mine Project is located less than an hour's drive from the Phoenix International airport via highway i-10, and with grid power and the Union Pacific Rail line situated at the base of the Cactus Project main road. With permitted water access, a streamlined permitting framework and infrastructure already in place, ASCU's Cactus Mine Project is a lower risk copper development project in the infrastructure-rich heartland of Arizona.For more information, please visit ⁠www.arizonasonoran.com⁠. Fireweed Metals is advancing 3 different projects within the Yukon and Northwest Territories, including the flagship Macmillan Pass Project, a large zinc-lead-silver deposit and the Mactung Project, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits in the world. Fireweed plans to advance these projects through exploration, resource definition, metallurgy, engineering, economic studies and collaboration with indigenous people on the path to production. For more information please visit ⁠fireweedmetals.com⁠.

Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/  We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. Otavio Costa is the portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm for 6 years. “Tavi” built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. www.crescat.net/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta About Jake: Journalytic Jake is a partner at Farnam Street: http://farnam-street.com/vah Jake's podcast: https://twitter.com/5_GQs Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1 Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l About Bill: Bill runs Sullimar Capital Group, a family investment firm. Bill's website: https://sullimarcapital.group/ Bill's Twitter: @BillBrewsterSCG ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer's Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon's Business and Finance The Acquirer's Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner's Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World's Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show. Tavi discusses how debt is squeezing the margins of companies and earnings are becoming increasingly problematic. Many believe the issues have been resolved, but mis-marking of balance sheets is affecting numerous sectors, such as banking, commercial real estate, and junk bonds. Yields are rising due to excessive debt issuance over recent years and the most aggressive fiscal policy relative to unemployment. With conflicting policies, it's hard to see gold not doing well in this environment. Oil markets and energy remain tight due to a dearth of capital spending and the use of strategic reserves by governments. Everyone is now worrying about liquidity, and it appears likely the Fed will have to intervene at some point. Commodity businesses related to precious metals, particularly exploration and development, are trading at historically undervalued levels. This is setting up what might well be one of the best times to invest in the gold space, as the market is yet to understand the resource sector. Numerous companies with major discoveries are still trading at suppressed levels, offering a great opportunity. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Rates, Debt & Consequences6:50 - Factors to Consider14:30 - Central Bank Reserves18:30 - Bond Performance26:00 - Energy & Investment Themes33:00 - Explorers & Producers40:00 - Capital Positioning45:30 - Other Metals52:00 - Wrap Up Guest Links:► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital► Website https://crescat.net► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Talking Points From This Episode:► Outlook for the economy in an ever increasing debt system.► Lack of capital expenditures in resources will exacerbate problems in energy and metals.► Resource companies with solid fundamentals continue to trade at historic undervaluations. Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Welcome to this week's KE Report Weekend Show! On this Weekend's Show we are focusing on the resource sector by first chatting with 2 fund managers detailing how they are managing their fund's portfolio, followed by a dive into the energy sector.   Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email. We love hearing what you think of our guests and the companies we featured throughout the week. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.   Segment 1 - Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital joins us to first recap his portfolio strategy this year, which has been less transactions. We discuss his outlook for gold, silver and base metal stocks. A couple trends we have seen recently in the sector include larger financings (for select companies) and Yukon being a popular jurisdiction. Click here to visit the MJG website. Segment 2 - Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital is up next with a very different portfolio strategy. We focus on Crescat's Precious Metals SMA Fund where the team has completed 90 investments in the last 2 year. This strategy is focused on small cap, early stage exploration companies that are high risk and high reward. We also discuss how Crescat balances out risk and reward when making investments. Click here to learn more about Crescat Capital. Segment 3 and 4 - Dan Steffens, President of The Energy Prospectus Group wraps up the show by shifting our focus to the energy sector. We quickly recap the the marco landscape then move to the oil and gas stocks. Dan shares a number of companies ranging from large cap sector leaders down to small scale production, many with near term growth plans. Dan has provided all of you with a special $100 discount when signing up for the Energy Prospectus Group. Enter "CF100" when signing up. Click here to visit the Energy Prospectus Group     Exclusive Company Interviews This Week Metalla Royalty & Streaming – Acquisition Of A Silver Focused Royalty Portfolio From First Majestic Silver Aztec Minerals – Drill Results Continue To Expand The California Zone At The Cervantes Project, Mexico FPX Nickel – $12 Million Investment From A New Corporate Strategic Investor Rupert Resources – A Dive Into The Ikkari PEA and What Comes Next Heliostar Metals – A Major Acquisition Of A Gold Portfolio In Mexico Kodiak Copper – A New Gold-Silver Discovery, Beyer Zone, On The MPD Project Silver X Mining – Comprehensive Update On Production Growth, Revenue Growth, and Resources Growth Awale Resources – New Targets On The Odienné Project and An Update On The Colossal Gold Acquisition Calibre Mining – Exploration Focus Fueling Development And Grade-Driven Production Growth Fathom Nickel – Comprehensive Company Update At The Gochager Lake And Albert Lake Projects Electric Royalties – Forecasting Cash-Flow Positive Next Year, Updates On The Royalty Portfolio  

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show. Palisade Radio Links:► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c Tavi believes we are witnessing an unprecedented economic environment. One with massive withdrawal of liquidity from central banks and developed economies. Interest rates and bonds are collapsing across the entire curve. The dollar's move up has also been relentless. What is occurring is unsustainable. Tavi discusses how the world's economies have fallen into three different categories. Labor markets are likely the next sector to be impacted, and it will be more severe than the Fed expects. During the 1970s, after two years of high inflation, the labor market was hit hard. We may be seeing the beginning of this with jobless claims and layoffs. Savings rates are at historical lows, while mortgage costs are rising. Things are likely to remain in a fragile state indefinitely. Tavi believes a blow off in corporate debt will be necessary to see a policy change by the Fed. Credit spreads are still sub two percent. We have yet to see the risk of default be priced in the market. Many tech equities are near March 2020 lows, and there are likely to still be some big flushes in the market. There is quite a bit of opportunity in resources given what is happening now. There is a lot of going against the oil markets today, and the economy is now in contraction. Prices are reflecting tightness in the available supply. The energy sector has some good values and investors should consider holding a basket of commodities. Value investors should also be looking for sectors that have a lot of negative sentiment. We've seen a secular decline in geosciences enrollment across the globe. This will affect natural resource companies. Gold continues to hold up quite well when compared with most sectors. We're entering a different regime that favors tangible assets. Numerous correlations that used to be meaningful no longer work. Developing countries like Brazil are performing better than the West. Commodity led economies will be key in coming years as the balance of global power change. Tavi cautions that a total breakdown in markets is coming and that impact everything. Look for value and shift your portfolio as necessary. The buy the dip mentality which has worked in the past is probably a bad plan. Be careful with technical oversold indicators, as the fundamentals indicate a trend lower. Macro factors will likely be more important in the next phase of the global economy. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:49 - The Macro Picture5:18 - U.S. Job Numbers9:08 - Corporate Earnings13:18 - Recession & Deficits17:46 - Energy Thoughts22:00 - Basket of Commodities26:09 - Energy & Metals Cycles29:30 - Producer Margins37:32 - Correlations Breaking41:36 - Silver & Price Spike45:27 - Crescat Funds49:17 - Wrap Up Guest Links:► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital► Website https://crescat.net► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Talking Points From This Episode:► The global macro picture and why volatility will persist.► Energy markets outlook and the importance of holding a basket of commodities.► Patterns are shifting and many correlations are no longer useful.► Protecting and building wealth in this environment. Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products a...

Former Trump adviser and Gettr CEO Jason Miller reacts to FBI seizing phone of Mypillow CEO Mike Lindell. He also comments on the recent discovery of a Chinese spy at Twitter. Upon the news of higher-than-expected inflation, the stock market took a serious blow, free falling nearly 1200 points...Financial expert Tavi Costa from Crescat Capitol joins us to discuss. 

Alistair Waddell, President and CEO of Inflection Resources (CSE:AUCU - OTCQB:AUCUF) joins us to update everyone on the recent exploration results and financing. Focused in Eastern Australia the Company is exploring a large portfolio of targets, recently encouraged by the results from the Duck Creek Target in Northern NSW. The Company also just completed a financing where Crescat increased its ownership.     We have Alistair explain the recent results from the Duck Pond Target and the follow up drilling planned for this year. We also discuss the other targets in the Company's portfolio that will be drilled in the near term.     If you have any follow up questions for Alistair regarding Inflection Resources please email us at Fleck@kereport.com or Shad@kereport.com.

In this episode of #SFLive, we are speaking with Tavi Costa, Partner & Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital. We discuss how the current prices of gold & silver, as well as the mining companies, are a gift. What will the FED do next? What impact does the Oil price have? Guest: Tavi Costa, Partner & Portfolio Manager Company: Crescat Capital Twitter: @TaviCosta #SILVER #GOLD Tags: Gold, Gold Price, Finance News, Gold Stocks, Gold Miners, Silver, Silver Price, Silver Squeeze, Silver Investing, Silver Miners, Miners, Mining Stocks, SF Live, Soar Financial, Kai Hoffmann, Gold Stock Investing, How To Invest, Investing in Gold, Investing in Silver, Recession, Silver Market, Silver Mining Stocks, Technical Analysis, Silver Market, Gold Market, Inflation, US Dollar, Buy the Dip, Buying the Dip, Dip Buying, Silver Price Analysis, Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Crescat, FED, Interest Rates, Yield Curve Control MAKE SURE TO SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHANNEL & HIT THE ALERT BUTTON Also, follow us on http://www.twitter.com/soarfinancial - make sure to follow us & click on the bell icon! ►► Follow Us! ◄◄ Twitter: http://twitter.com/soarfinancial Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/soarfinancial/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/soarfinancial/ Website: http://www.soarfinancial.com SF Live is a new format by Soar Financial Partners. The goal is to give short company updates and more importantly get investors engaged directly with the companies. Intro Music: "Summer" by Bensound.com **Disclaimer:** Unless specifically disclosed, all information available on Soar Financial and its affiliates or partners should be considered as non-commercial in nature. None of the content produced by Soar Financial should be considered an endorsement, offer or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Soar Financial is not registered with any financial or securities regulatory authority in Canada, the US, Europe, or the UK, and does not provide, nor claim to provide, investment advice or recommendations to any consumer of the content that Soar Financial produces and publicizes. Always do your own due diligence and/or consult a qualified legal, tax, or investment professional if personal advice is deemed necessary. Soar Financial and its related companies (including its directors, employees, and representatives) or a connected person may hold equity positions in securities detailed in communications. When this occurs a disclosure will be made. Disclosures on social media will be made using the hashtag #coi (short for conflict of interest). Soar Financial, its affiliates, and their respective directors, officers, employees, or agents expressly disclaim any liability for losses or damages, whether direct, indirect, special, or consequential, or other consequences, howsoever caused, arising out of any use or reproduction of this site or any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the produced content of Soar Financial, whether authorized or not. By accessing Soar Financial's content, each consumer of Soar Financial content releases Soar Financial, its affiliates, and their respective officers, directors, agents, and employees from all claims and proceedings for such losses, damages, or consequences. Soar Financial may provide content on third-party sites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any information posted on such other websites.

Crescat Capital portfolio manager Tavi Costa reveals the fund's approach to junior mining speculation, including the #1 thing they look for even more than management's experience and qualifications. Tavi shared regarding the current opportunity for junior mining speculators: “the beauty of now though, with valuations where they are, is that you are able to find a company with already a discovery hole trading sub-$20mm market cap which is unusual”….“the market is giving us a gift right now to put money to work in things that we believe are, probabilistically-speaking, onto something very interesting.” Tavi is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He is responsible for developing Crescat's macro models as part of our thematic investment process. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Real Vision, and others. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University. 0:00 Introduction 1:10 How Crescat Capital speculates in jr mining stocks 7:13 Investing in exploreCos before the discovery hole 8:22 Investing in privateCos 8:55 Top-down investing 10:24 How do you measure success? 13:32 Crescat is an activist investor 14:49 Exit strategy? 16:50 Buying pre-production companies 17:44 Trimming your winners? 20:20 Exercising warrants 22:27 Heading a jr mining portfolio 23:36 ESG 25:40 Bullish energy? 26:35 Bullish agriculture? Crescat Capital: https://www.crescat.net/ Tavi's Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 The content found on MiningStockEducation.com is for informational purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. It is based on opinions, SEC filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and MiningStockEducation.com offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on MiningStockEducation.com or our videos. We may hold equity positions in and/or be compensated by some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. MiningStockEducation.com may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on MiningStockEducation.com is to be used at your own risk. By reading MiningStockEducation.com, you agree to hold MiningStockEducation.com, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred.

The reason our mantra is “Balance your wealth in an unbalanced world” is because in such unprecedented times it should be expected that experts can have such divergent theses on ‘what's next'. On Monday we spoke to the thesis of Raoul Pal and others of recession, disinflation, Fed easing and risk-on. Today we talk to Crescat's thesis of recession, sustained inflation, sustained rate hikes, and commodities boom.

On todays episode I was happy to host  Tavi Costa , expert in the commodity markets and currently a Portfolio Manager at  Crescat Capital . On the podcast we talked about the potential for a commodity super cycle, what Macro Trends are influencing this, how investors can take advantage of the trend and what countries Tavi is focusing on. I hope you enjoy!Tavi is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He is responsible for developing Crescat's macro models as part of our thematic investment process. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Real Vision, and others. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi Costa - YouTubeTwitterLinkedInInvestor Letters WTFinance - WebsiteInstagram SpotifyTikTokiTunesLinkedInTwitter

Kevin Smith, Tavi Costa and Patrick Highsmith are this week's guests. Crescat Capital became known to your host when one of the top exploration geologists in the world and a regular guest on this show, Dr. Quinton Hennigh, joined the company as its technical advisor. His job is to assist Crescat in selecting small exploration companies that are in the process of discovering world class mineral deposits. Even before Quinton joined them, Crescat had won a large number of awards as a top hedge fund firm over the past couple of decades. While most firms were suffering large losses over a 5-year period ending in 2010, Crescat averaged 27.2 % annual gains which included the worst stock market crash since 1929. The same independent thought process that enabled that success has now led the company to focus heavily on commodities and precious metals as they recognize that the biggest gains at this time can be made by investing in small cap companies that are able to discover world class gold and silver deposits. Hence the addition of Dr. Hennigh as a vital member of the team in identifying companies that have what it takes for exploration success. Names like Eloro Resources, Eskay Mining, and Lion One Metals, all sponsors to this show and heavily invested in by Crescat, are on their way to outlining billion-dollar gold and silver assets. Tavi and Kevin will explain why they favor gold and silver exploration stocks at this time and Patrick Highsmith will explain the exciting investment thesis behind Firefox Gold, which is also an investment held by Crescat and a sponsor to this show. Fortunes are being made in the junior exploration sector and few, if any, hedge funds are finding more success in that sector than Crescat Capital.

Kevin Smith, Tavi Costa and Patrick Highsmith are this week's guests. Crescat Capital became known to your host when one of the top exploration geologists in the world and a regular guest on this show, Dr. Quinton Hennigh, joined the company as its technical advisor. His job is to assist Crescat in selecting small exploration companies that are in the process of discovering world class mineral deposits. Even before Quinton joined them, Crescat had won a large number of awards as a top hedge fund firm over the past couple of decades. While most firms were suffering large losses over a 5-year period ending in 2010, Crescat averaged 27.2 % annual gains which included the worst stock market crash since 1929. The same independent thought process that enabled that success has now led the company to focus heavily on commodities and precious metals as they recognize that the biggest gains at this time can be made by investing in small cap companies that are able to discover world class gold and silver deposits. Hence the addition of Dr. Hennigh as a vital member of the team in identifying companies that have what it takes for exploration success. Names like Eloro Resources, Eskay Mining, and Lion One Metals, all sponsors to this show and heavily invested in by Crescat, are on their way to outlining billion-dollar gold and silver assets. Tavi and Kevin will explain why they favor gold and silver exploration stocks at this time and Patrick Highsmith will explain the exciting investment thesis behind Firefox Gold, which is also an investment held by Crescat and a sponsor to this show. Fortunes are being made in the junior exploration sector and few, if any, hedge funds are finding more success in that sector than Crescat Capital.

Tom welcomes back the founder and CIO of Crescat Capital, Kevin Smith. Kevin shows us his recent presentation and how the commodities to equities ratio are near all-time lows. We have record valuations for stocks at large. During periods of high-inflation equity markets can go quite flat or even negative. We're seeing concentration in just a few tech stocks and the top five market cap companies are now 54% higher than during the Dot Com bubble. We've seen some disappointing earnings results in recent weeks that have seriously impacted Amazon and Facebook as examples. It all just feels like a new Tech Bubble. Few investors today remember a high-inflationary environment. We call what is coming 'the great rotation' which envisions investors leaving growth stocks and moving to undervalued inflation hedged assets. The typical US Business cycle lasts ten years but during periods of inflation, the period tends to contract. We usually end up with more recessions and were now in the biggest asset bubble in US history. We could be heading into a downturn sooner rather than later. He notes that rising high yield credit spreads are indicative of a recession. Credit spreads are beginning to head higher. Powell can't pivot because inflation is real and they need to maintain some sort of credibility. The Fed is trapped and has never been more cornered than it is today. The Fed can do little or nothing to stop the rise in energy and agriculture prices. Structural supply problems aren't going away soon. This is an opportunity for investors to get properly positioned. Lastly, Kevin discusses the lack of capital investment into commodites and exploration for new deposits. This lack of investment will certainly be key to bring about the next commodities boom. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Commodities & Equities3:02 - Stocks & Inflation6:35 – Tech. Volatility10:31 - Wage-Price Spiral13:30 - Fed & Rates17:32 - Commodities Outlook20:25 - US Business Cycles23:02 - Credit Spreads27:04 - Fed Speculation29:45 - CPI & Rents32:25 - CAPEX & Commodities36:35 - Exploration38:00 - Gold Discoveries43:57 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Week's Episode Equity valuations and the Tech Bubble 2.0High inflation and what we can't expect from the Fed.The US business cycle, credit spreads and why there signaling recession.The lack of CAPEX investment in commodities will surely drive the resource market. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CrescatKevinTwitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_CapitalYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5xZQPnkw1zsrpYpHenaWBwWebsite: https://crescat.net Kevin Smith is the founder and CIO of Crescat Capital. He has been managing investment portfolios since 1992, a career spanning multiple business cycles. Kevin has been the lead portfolio manager of Crescat's four investment strategies since their respective inceptions. He is the creator of Crescat's firmwide global macro investment process and systematic equity valuation model. Before founding Crescat, Kevin worked as a wealth advisor with Kidder Peabody. He earned an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business with a finance specialization and a concentration in statistics. Kevin received a bachelor's degree in economics and German studies from Stanford University. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show. Tavi discusses how gold prices are struggling after hitting new highs in 2020. Gold's recent history appears to be one of consolidation. The year-over-year CPI is demonstrating that gold is keeping up with inflation and will eventually break out. Gold did front-run the inflation expectations but we should soon see a higher low. This seems to be the beginning of an inflationary decade and policymakers appear clueless regarding the impact of stimulus programs. The crypto markets are a parallel world being built of libertarian ideals. He believes central banks and governments are going to have to return to some sort of anchor. Gold will likely fit that role. Cryptos are here to stay but their impact on the economic system remains uncertain. We're going to see an evolution and it's important to separate the technical benefits from the rampant speculation. Eventually, the metals and commodities will lead the market. There are signs of a looming shift in the broader markets. Natural resource projects are not getting the attention they deserve and universities are not teaching students geology. There has been a misallocation of capital when compared with the tech sector. Oil is also a sector that is lacking in capital spending. The United States and China are the world drivers of growth. China is currently having several problems around commodities due to rising prices. China has massive levels of debt not unlike other developed countries. Tavi expects further food inflation which is not reflected in the CPI. Food prices are concerning to lower classes and will influence policymakers along with their fiscal policies. Most market participants today have not lived through inflationary periods. Energy companies are having a hard time being productive in the current global economy and economic policies. However, they are inexpensive and energy demand will continue. He remains bullish on oil and natural gas. Tavi discusses the outlook for bonds and yields. Bonds can be a good hedge and people should look at the 1970s where ten-year yields rose along with gold. Lastly, Tavi discusses what they look for in the juniors along with some of the risks. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Precious Metal Signs4:00 - Gold Versus CPI7:54 - Cryptos & Markets11:55 - Under Owned Investments13:44 - Oil & Rig Counts14:52 - Institutions & Inflation17:52 - Evergrande Contagion?21:24 - Inflation Expectations23:35 - Commodity Inflation & Ag.25:08 - Macro Energy Thesis28:09 - Powell, Taper, & Bonds34:36 - Hedging Miners38:58 - Deep Value Criteria42:29 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCostaTwitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_CapitalWebsite https://crescat.netInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Talking Points From This Episode: Thoughts on the gold markets and their recent history.Inflation and golds performance in this environment.Crypto speculation and an eventual speculative shift back to gold.Commodities and impact on China Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is featured often in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Michael Oliver and Quinton Hennigh return. Kevin Smith and Otavio “Tavi” Costa visit for the first time. At a time in Western culture when individuals are told to stop thinking and simply follow orders, Kevin and Tavi have demonstrated that if you want to avoid following the lemmings into the sea, using your God given intelligence can allow you to rise far above the norm. Starting with Kevin and his wife Carleu Smith in 1992, the legacy of a highly profitable Crescat Capital began. In 2013 Tavi, another individual thinker, joined Crescat where he has built the company's macro-economic model. Kevin and Tavi will explain the company's investment philosophy and why their macroeconomic model demands investing in gold exploration companies. Not surprisingly, the independent thinking of Crescat's team was attracted to the skills of another exceptionally talented and perhaps the most out-of-the box thinking geologist in the world, Dr. Quinton Hennigh, who has recently joined Crescat as the company's geologic & technical director. Quinton will also join me to tell us of exciting developments for Eskay Mining, a company that appears to be onto a major precious metals rich volcanic massive sulfide discovery in British Columbia. Last but not least, Michael will share with us his latest thoughts on key markets that stem from his proprietary structure and momentum models.

Michael Oliver and Quinton Hennigh return. Kevin Smith and Otavio “Tavi” Costa visit for the first time. At a time in Western culture when individuals are told to stop thinking and simply follow orders, Kevin and Tavi have demonstrated that if you want to avoid following the lemmings into the sea, using your God given intelligence can allow you to rise far above the norm. Starting with Kevin and his wife Carleu Smith in 1992, the legacy of a highly profitable Crescat Capital began. In 2013 Tavi, another individual thinker, joined Crescat where he has built the company's macro-economic model. Kevin and Tavi will explain the company's investment philosophy and why their macroeconomic model demands investing in gold exploration companies. Not surprisingly, the independent thinking of Crescat's team was attracted to the skills of another exceptionally talented and perhaps the most out-of-the box thinking geologist in the world, Dr. Quinton Hennigh, who has recently joined Crescat as the company's geologic & technical director. Quinton will also join me to tell us of exciting developments for Eskay Mining, a company that appears to be onto a major precious metals rich volcanic massive sulfide discovery in British Columbia. Last but not least, Michael will share with us his latest thoughts on key markets that stem from his proprietary structure and momentum models.

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show. Tavi discusses the key causes of inflation and how it drives inequality. We're seeing increasing use of food stamps and helicopter money which are directed toward the bottom fifty percent of the public. A lot of inflation is showing up in housing which has a large impact as a whole. We're seeing a secular increase in wages and salaries and continued monetary dilution by central banks. There is a rush towards anything tangible as policymakers have many reasons for spending while suppressing rates. The Fed is cornered between the need to control rates while preventing inflation. If the costs of capital rise we will see major issues in equities and bonds. Everything is overpriced and rate suppression is necessary to justify valuations. Soon inflation will be difficult to ignore and the Fed will be trapped. Tavi expects a shift in money velocity which will increase inflation. Higher wages will squeeze the margins of many companies and those costs will likely be passed onto consumers. Expect commodities and natural resources to outperform in the coming years and likely become market leaders. He explains why gold can work very well in even a deflationary environment as seen over the past two decades in Japan. Primary silver deposits are difficult to find but there are opportunities as fundamentals have improved with the miners. That will continue to increase the demand for exploration. China is the largest deflationary risk in the world. There are large currency risks along with massive credit bubbles not unlike the United States. Rising commodity input costs will impact manufacturing which could spill over to the rest of the world. Lastly, Tavi discusses what could trigger the next move up in gold. Central banks will continue to look for assets that can improve their balance sheets. Both gold and silver are getting primed for another leg higher. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Pillars of Inflation9:48 - Fed Stuck?14:39 - Deflation?20:14 - Wages & Money Velocity26:36 - Golds Optionality31:47 - Gold Restrained36:37 - Silver & Silver Miners42:04 - China & Credit Bubbles49:34 - China & Global Risk56:58 - Concluding Thoughts59:26 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCostaTwitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_CapitalWebsite https://crescat.netInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Talking Points From This Episode: The causes of inflation, its effects, and expanding bubbles in assets.Fed cornered between keeping rates low and inflation concerns.Higher wages and commodity prices are likely to drive inflation further.Silver fundamentals improving and expectations for the metals. Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Tavi Costa is the portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm for 6 years. Tavi built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.  Tavi's research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and many more.  Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi holds a Bachelor of Business Administration that he completed at Lindenwood University.  In this episode, Tavi explains his most recent research article called “A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes”. He then provides his opinion on the whether or not the Federal Reserve bank is trapped when it comes to dealing with inflation and debt.  Tavi also comments on whether there is strong public awareness about inflation and labour pressures among the general public. He then provides his opinion on if we currently have a bubble in the equity and housing market. Tavi strongly believes that a gold and silver supply cliff is happening, meaning a supply crisis could be coming in the near future. He then talks about what would happen to precious metals and miners if there is a stock market crash.  Tavi explains the silver to money supply (M2) ratio chart from his website. He then speaks on why silver is the single most compelling reason to invest in silver stocks.  Tavi then shares who are his greatest mentors and where millennial investors should go to better educate themselves before making financial decisions. He then shares which commodities that he is most bullish on and his top stock picks for 2021. Lastly, Tavi provides his definition of greatness. Podcast Host: Ben Mumme Subscribe to the YouTube Channel: https://bit.ly/3fAcFrt Connect with Ben: (https://mailchi.mp/7fc4ede3f9b7/living-your-greatness). Connect with Tavi Costa on Twitter (https://twitter.com/TaviCosta), subscribe to his YouTube channel (https://bit.ly/3jKsTAQ) and check out the Crescat Capital website (https://www.crescat.net).

Tavi believes the FED is trapped in a dilemma. On one side, it could decide to continue expanding its balance sheet to ensure subdued interest rates at the cost of setting off an inflationary problem.Or, it could take the deflationary route by reversing its unprecedentedly loose monetary policy, due to overheating economic conditions, resulting in a reckoning moment for financial assets from record valuations.In this episode we invited Tavi Costa, Partner & Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, shares with us why he believes the FED is trapped in its own policies, why inflation will get out of control and the case for a commodity supercycle with a bull run that barely started for commodities like gold and silver.Otavio "Tavi" Costa is the portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm for 6 years. “Tavi” built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.⏰ Timestamps ⏰00:00 Intro01:35 Tavi's passion and drive03:46 What money means to Tavi05:34 Why is finance a game?07:35 Tavi's thesis on the current monetary system11:45 Deflation or inflation? How temporary is inflation?19:58 Why did the FED trap itself?24:36 Is there a way out?29:52 Repo and reverse repo operations34:32 Liquidity crisis?36:25 How are markets reacting to FED policies?43:57 The case for a commodity supercycle?48:46 Outlook on precious metals: gold, silver, ...53:05 Concluding thoughts54:40 Outro

The following charts from Crescat paint a salient reminder of the trap the US Fed find themselves in. Real inflation is coming but deficit spending is at an all time high and can’t handle higher rates. We share the recent ‘coal face’ data and the extraordinary ‘twin deficit’ picture before the Fed. Link to all images today: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/us-twin-deficit-hits-25-of-gdp-/tabid/88/a/2502/default.aspx

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show. Tavi discusses why 2021 could be worse due to stimulus and fiscal deficit spending. The Fed has been buying 50 to 60% of all treasuries, and we see additional issuance of longer-duration treasuries. The Fed must continue to suppress interest rates to permit the government to spend and invest at the current rates. This is also required to justify the record multiples we see in the equities and corporate bonds. Investors are starting to buy physical assets to offset this dilution of money. The long-term basis shows declining ownership by foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries. The Fed, therefore, has to be the buyer of last resort. The government is expanding the amount of debt in the system while the private sector has essentially improved its balance sheets. The taxpayer inevitably ends up paying for the mess the government creates. Expect this to happen again. Almost every asset class is near all-time highs today. Tavi discusses historic inflation periods and how they may project where we are heading. He remains cautious about equity markets and believes that commodities will outperform in the coming years. Clearly, over the past year, numerous supply disruptions have adversely affected the supply chain. Skilled labor is hard to find today, and stimulus programs are limiting the ability of the economy to get back to normal. Costs of living will rise, and we may see increasing pressure for higher wages and salaries. Governments are trying to hide real inflation in the system because they can't fix it. Oil, gold, silver, and copper all look incredibly cheap right now. In addition, the green agenda makes mining and resource use even more difficult. Tavi discusses the potential for a deflationary crash to correct overvalued asset classes like equities. However, such a decline may shortly afterward be accompanied by another round of massive stimulus. The long-term chart of silver is nearing breakout levels and could go much higher than investors believe. They are also very bullish on gold and can see it trading higher than $2000 in the next year or so. Mining fundamentals are improving rapidly, and major miners are leading growth in the sector. Tavi explains how they diversify their portfolio worldwide and why their overall goal is to become involved early in the mining cycle. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Fed is Trapped3:10 - Foreign - Treasuries6:04 - Taxes & Revenue9:24 - Equity Valuations11:46 - Commodity Prices15:14 - Supply Chain Issues19:24 - Inflation Projections26:08 - Equity Bubbles29:46 - Crash Signals?32:44 - Silver Predictions34:50 - Gold Outlook36:56 - Majors Leading39:12 - Crescat Methodology41:57 - Gold Supply Cliff46:05 - Concluding Thoughts47:48 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCostaTwitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_CapitalWebsite https://crescat.netInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Talking Points From This Episode: Treasury issuance and Federal Reserve purchasing.Equity valuations and signals of coming inflation.Potential for an equity correction and risks of further corrective stimulus.Mining sector growth and improving fundamentals. Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St.

Macro and precious metals analyst Tavi Costa joins us to answer your questions regarding inflation, commodities, gold and silver. Questions 0:00 - Introduction 1:56 - Whether inflation or deflation is pending 5:01 - How will the latest round of stimulus checks impact the US economy and market 7:59 - Brazilian economy and the Brazilian mining sector 11:17 - Bull market in commodities, and how to forecast and monitor 14:26 - Preferred metal for investment 17:00 - Institutional money flowing in mining sector 20:26 - Important factors to access before investing 24:22 - Outro You can submit your questions to submissions@sprottmoney.com Visit our website https://www.sprottmoney.com​​​​ for more news. Tavi is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Tom welcomes returning guest Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show. Tavi outlines Crescat's macro model and how it drives their investing focus. Tavi discusses how the only way out of the global debt burden is through further debasement and a continued race to the bottom for currencies. Equity yields are down in real terms, and this will drive demand for safe monetary assets like gold and silver. Precious metals could do well in either an inflationary or deflationary environment. Debt monetization is happening everywhere but increasingly in places like Canada and Australia. The real estate market in Australia is beginning to impair their overall macro position. Similar problems are occurring in Canada and within the Canadian banking system since their deficits are ballooning. Globally debt is piling up at an unprecedented pace. The suppression of interest rates means central banks have to expand the monetary base to maintain growth. Currently, just the tech sector equities are nearing 40% of GDP. Markets today have numerous excesses, but most investors share a general lack of comprehension of the risks. Large miners have had few discoveries due to a lack of capital allocation in exploration. This is resulting in a constrained supply and an opportunity for those miners that are exploring. This lack of supply, along with all the various macro drivers, will send gold much higher. Tavi compares the monetary dilution of the past few decades with both gold and silver. This looks very good for gold and amazing for silver. He expects silver to head towards $50 fairly soon. Investors should consider selling popular equities and buying miners with free-cash-flow. The idea that central banks can control a decline in the business cycle is absurd. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:28 - Crescat's macro model.3:10 - Treasury cash balance.5:30 - S&P Ratio to Deficits8:15 - Global negative yielding bonds.10:45 - Monetary Supply vs Deficits.14:30 - Thoughts on China.17:00 - Australia Credit Card Accounts17:50 - Australia Rents and Real Estate.19:00 - Central Bank Balance Sheets (Canada)22:00 - Gold Discoveries Vs. Price of Gold25:30 - Fed Balance Sheet Expansion & Gold28:10 - Silver relative to money supply.31:10 - Buy gold and sell equities. Talking Points From This Episode Crescat's macro model.US Treasury and the overall global debt picture.Concerns with China, Australia, and Canada.Miners, discoveries, and the outlook for gold and silver. Guest Links:Website: https://crescat.netTwitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is Global Macro Analyst for Crescat Capital. He has been an analyst on Crescat's investment team for more than five years, focusing on global cross-asset research. "Tavi" built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a BA degree in Business Administration, emphasizing finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

News is filtering through that the Fed may have stepped back from the plate and markets got very jittery last week. Today we share the latest excellent insights from Crescat, whose investment insight just saw them get make the top of Bloomberg’s hedge fund monthly performance table for the third straight month and the fourth month this year. i.e. they are worth listing too. They believe we are still in the early days of a secular bull market in gold and silver and this correction is an ideal dip buying opportunity. View charts and article, shop bullion: 6 Forces to “Propel” Gold & Silver

Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Kevin Smith. Kevin is the founder and CIO of Crescat Capital. Kevin discusses the enormous credit bubbles that exist in China and Hong Kong. These credit bubbles have resulted in housing bubbles with a very similar signature to the last housing bubble in the United States. Crescat has eight different valuation factors they use to assess the U.S. stock market. All of these are currently close to or 100% overvalued. They estimate that P.E. ratios today are higher than they were in 1929 before the great depression. Kevin discusses their new fund and how excited they are to have added geologist Quinton Hennigh to their team to help them evaluate new opportunities. He is optimistic that money will soon begin flowing out of the bubbles created by central banks and head into the gold sector. They consider silver to be extremely cheap today, and ultimately, it will be repriced much higher. Lastly, Kevin discusses several junior companies that they believe have great potential. Time Stamp References:1:20 - China's Debt Bubble4:15 - Extreme imbalances in Hong Kong6:18 - Valuation factors in their macro model.8:05 - Managing risk in their funds.9:10 - Precious metals fund.11:45 - Opportunities in explorers.14:50 - Thoughts on silver.15:45 - Factors for identifying explorers.17:43 - Juniors they are interested in.19:40 - Their focus and strategy. Talking Points From This Episode• Situation with currencies in China, Hong Kong, and housing bubbles• Crescat's valuation indicators show an overheated stock market.• Silver remains very undervalued.• Evaluating new opportunities for their fund. Kevin Smith is the founder and CIO of Crescat Capital. He has been managing investment portfolios since 1992, a career spanning multiple business cycles. Kevin has been the lead portfolio manager of Crescat’s four investment strategies since their respective inceptions. He is the creator of Crescat’s firmwide global macro investment process and systematic equity valuation model. Before founding Crescat, Kevin worked as a wealth advisor with Kidder Peabody. He earned an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business with a finance specialization and a concentration in statistics. Kevin received a bachelor’s degree in economics and German studies from Stanford University. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CrescatKevinTwitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_CapitalYouTube: https://www.youtube.comWebsite: https://crescat.net

Ladies and gentlemen, today we have none other than TAVI COSTA! Tavi is portfolio manager at Crescat Capital (in Denver, Colorado) and has been with the firm for more than 6 years now. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters, and now PODER & MERCADO. Among many other things, I decided to invite Tavi because he is -at least as I see it- an expert at changes in economic cycles and between its different stages, and at finding very interesting correlations in the markets. Why is this so important? Because preventing economic cycles and their different stages is critical for any investment method. If you want to know more about Tavi and Crescat Capital, follow him on Twitter @TaviCosta and Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro, and visit https://www.crescat.net Señoras y señores, ¡hoy tenemos a nadie menos que TAVI COSTA! Tavi es socio y co-gestor de fondos en Crescat Capital (en Denver, Colorado) desde hace más de 6 años. Ha construido el modelo macro de Crescat que identifica la fase actual del ciclo económico de EEUU, a través de una combinación de 16 factores. Sus investigaciones han sido publicadas por medios financieros como Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters, y ahora PODER & MERCADO. Entre varias otras cosas, he decidido invitar a Tavi porque es, al menos como lo veo yo, un experto en los cambios en los ciclos económicos y sus distintas fases, y para encontrar interesantes correlaciones en los mercados. ¿Por qué esto es tan importante? Porque prevenir los ciclos económicos y sus distintas etapas es crítico para cualquier método de inversión. Para saber más sobre Tavi y Crescat Capital, síguelo en Twitter @TaviCosta e Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro, y visita https://www.crescat.net ________________________ Encuéntrame en más redes: Web: http://riosmauricio.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/riosmauricio YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/riosmauricio LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/riosmauricio Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/riosmauriciocom Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/riosmauricio

Hello Podcast Listeners, Today is a very special episode with Kevin Smith, CFA, Founder, CEO, and CIO and Tavi Costa, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital. Kevin brings 28 years of investment management experience spanning multiple business cycles. Before founding Crescat, he worked as a wealth advisor at Kidder Peabody. He earned his MBA from the University of Chicago and his Bachelor’s in Economics and German Studies from Stanford. Tavi has been with Crescat for 6 years where he built their macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. Before this he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a logistics company in Brazil. He earned his BA in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and Spanish from Lindenwood University in St. Louis. In today’s episode we cover the current state and where they find opportunities in the present environment. We discuss the present environment and where the find opportunities especially in the mining sector. They discuss their activist case in the mining sector. Check out their Youtube at: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCH1gkvmtAWe85N4qHmXlDug Enjoy and thanks for the listen!

No episódio de hoje, primeira parte de uma conversa que foi dividida em duas, Marcelo López conversou com Fernando Ulrich, sócio da Liberta Investimentos, e com Otávio Costa, mais conhecido como Tavi, portfolio manager da Crescat Capital. Tavi começa discutindo sobre os 3 itens que ele e a Crescat estavam acompanhando desde o ano passado: a situação na China, os metais preciosos e a bolha nos mercados internacionais. Ele fala sobre sua expectativa em torno dos estímulos monetários e discorre sobre o impacto disso nos metais preciosos. Fernando completa o raciocínio com sua visão mais macro e questiona sobre a conversibilidade do dólar de Hong Kong e os impactos na economia local. Tavi fala sobre os hedges que a Crescat Capital está usando no momento e suas expectativas sobre o futuro da economia chinesa. Ulrich então traz suas expectativas com relação a tão sonhada recuperação em “V” das economias mundiais e compara com o pensamento corrente. Ele fala sobre o business cycle, indicadores antecedentes e sobre a rápida queda e retorno dos mercados internacionais. Marcelo expõe sua visão de que essa é uma crise de solvência, não de liquidez, e que a impressão de dinheiro desenfreada não vai resolver o problema. Tavi completa com sua opinião sobre a atual crise e destaca alguns setores estão sendo prejudicados mais do que outros, além de comparar o setor de tecnologia com o setor de bancos. Fernando diz que ainda tem muita coisa para acontecer em termos de “saneamento financeiro” e elabora sobre o tema, citando exemplos como o da Boeing. Além disso, ele levanta o questionamento sobre inflação e deflação. Marcelo conta sobre o respeito que tem pelo mercado de bonds e diz que ainda não está claro o caminho que o mundo vai seguir, ou seja, se haverá inflação ou deflação. Nesse confronto, ele traz bons argumentos para ambos. Do lado da inflação, há a impressão de dinheiro absurda, do lado da deflação, existe o icônico caso Japão, que vem imprimindo dinheiro há décadas, sem que a inflação incomodasse.

Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital joins Tom to discuss the debt distortion in the markets. Tavi doesn't expect a V-shaped recovery, and he says, "They have never been this bullish on gold and silver." He feels that China and Hong Kong are in massive credit bubbles that will burst. We are currently in a liquidity trap as the world has lost 50 trillion in market cap from February to the bottom in March. Amazingly even with massive money printing, we don't yet have an excess of liquidity in the system. Gold equities are the only asset class in the world trading today at 1980 levels. Time Stamp References: 0:40 - State of the markets. 3:20 - Crescats macro model 11:40 - The US Dollar outlook. 18:10 - The case for gold/silver. 22:10 - Crescats positioning. 26:50 - Leverage ETF Risks. 29:30 - Is a gold pullback possible? Talking Points From This Episode • Debt, equity markets, and economic cycles. • Equities may have much further to fall. • China and Hong Kong have massive credit bubbles. • The bullish case for the dollar. Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Global Macro Analyst for Crescat Capital. He has been an analyst on Crescat's investment team for more than five years, with a focus on global cross-asset research. "Tavi" built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a BA degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University. Tavi's twitter is: @TaviCosta

(Originally published February 1, 2020) On this exclusive Macro Matters Series, guest Host Kevin Kelly talks to Octavio “Tavi” Costa, Global Macro Analyst at Crescat Capital. Tavi discusses Crescat’s top investment themes, the favorable backdrop for precious metals, how the macro environment could impact Bitcoin, and much more. Key Points Crestcat is focused on China due to statistics predictive of major currency devaluation moving forward. Alongside Bitcoin, gold and other precious metals are poised to grow in value. Looking at the US job market, including unemployment rates, Tavi and his team believe we are at the peak of the U.S. business cycle. Quotes “The entire global financial market is addicted to cheap money and monetary and fiscal intervention. There’s no doubt about that. And what we see here today is that higher and higher units of debt are generating less and less growth.” –Tavi Costa “The reason I don’t mess with other cryptocurrencies is because I just don’t fully understand—I barely understand Bitcoin itself, to be honest, so it’s been hard for me to get my arms around the other ones.” –Tavi Costa “I believe that modern monetary theory is a total fallacy.” –Tavi Costa Episode Highlights What was Tavi’s upbringing like and how did he find his way to becoming a global macro analyst & portfolio manager? Crestcat is focused on the US business cycle, the China credit bubble, and precious metals. There are clear cracks in the US economy that lead Crestcat to be cautious. Several metrics indicate that we’re going to see a deceleration in economic growth. Countries like China are engaging in monetary experimentation aimed at driving inflation, which lowers debt burdens. Over the next ten years, Tavi predicts we will see higher commodity prices. Tavi is starting to see a correlation between Bitcoin and gold, partly because both assets are supply-constrained. We’re at a peak level of reliance on central banks. Bitcoin provides a huge opportunity for investors in terms of asset allocation while the likelihood of fiat currency debasement rises. These hypotheses are based on looking at the most overvalued currencies in the world, like in China where there’s unprecedented debt levels, economic slowdown, and signs of inflation. China is poised to see a major devaluation of its currency. Historically, when emerging markets collapse, gold tends to rise. For Tavi to reevaluate these predictions, there would have to be a fulfillment of the George Soros theory of reflexivity where the economy feeds on its own to improve itself. The next trends to look for are with the jobs market in the US. Support The Show Visit Delta Exchange For A $10 Welcome Bonus! Disclosures: This podcast is strictly informational and educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any tokens or securities or to make any financial decisions. Do not trade or invest in any project, tokens, or securities based upon this podcast episode. The host may personally own tokens that are mentioned on the podcast. Tom Shaughnessy owns tokens in ETH, BTC, XTZ, STX, SNX, RUNE, sUSD and HNT. Lets Talk Bitcoin is a distribution partner for the Chain Reaction Podcast, and our current show features paid sponsorships which may be featured at the start, middle and/or the end of the episode. These sponsorships are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to use any product or service. Music Attribution: Cosmos by From The Dust | https://soundcloud.com/ftdmusic Music promoted by https://www.free-stock-music.com Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en_US

www.resource-insider.com ***EPISODE 13*** Tavi Costa (Twitter: @TaviCosta) is a macro focused portfolio manager at Crescat Capital. Tavi built the macro model his firm lies upon to identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle. His research has been featured in Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. In this conversation Jamie & Tavi discuss the incredible asymmetric trade we're seeing in the gold space, and why Crescat is extremely bullish on commodities. Tavi breaks down his research and explains the key indicators he's using to make decisions when deploy fund capital. ***Follow Resource Insider*** YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_njmAj3pzvr8JvkW8yjoaA?view_as=subscriber Itunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast... Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3ntPCBk... SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/resource-insid... Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Keech LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiekeech/ ***RI QUARANTINED*** A special addition of the RI Podcast where Jamie interviews the mining industry's top leaders and investors about the effects of the Coronavirus on the resource industry and capital markets. Jamie is currently quarantined at home in Vancouver, all interviews are conducted remotely.

Hello Podcast Listeners, Today is a very special episode with Kevin Smith, CFA, Founder, CEO, and CIO and Tavi Costa, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital. Kevin brings 28 years of investment management experience spanning multiple business cycles. Before founding Crescat, he worked as a wealth advisor at Kidder Peabody. He earned his MBA from the University of Chicago and his Bachelor’s in Economics and German Studies from Stanford. Tavi has been with Crescat for 6 years where he built their macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. Before this he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a logistics company in Brazil. He earned his BA in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and Spanish from Lindenwood University in St. Louis. In today’s episode we cover the current state and where they find opportunities in the present environment. We discuss their approach and their trade of a century idea. Enjoy and thanks for the listen!

The Jelly Donut Podcast #12 was recorded on December 6, 2019. Tavi Costa has been an analyst on Crescat’s investment team for more than five years with a focus on global cross-asset research. Tavi built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications such as Bloomberg. https://twitter.com/TaviCosta https://twitter.com/crescatkevin https://www.crescat.net/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/jellydonutpodcast/support

Otavio “Tavi” Costa is the portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm for six years. Tavi built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.   “We all need to be able to respect and apply risk and uncertainty. You know the changes in probabilities.” Otavio Costa   Worst investment ever Bearish and bullish are terms that Tavi understands, like the back of his hand, given his background in business model analysis and macro investing. Tavi is an expert in analyzing and predicting business cycles. The expert is tested The period between 2014 and 2018, however, put his expertise into a real test. Between 2014 and 2015, the market experienced a global GDP decline of 6%, almost as significant as the global financial crisis. There were a lot of reasons for that. Oil prices were collapsing, the dollar was strong, and other commodities were collapsing. Also, China was going through a turmoil with Chinese stocks going from a boom to bust in less than a year. And then investors were pulling money out of China. Capital flows started picking up, and businesses started doing well. Boom! Here comes an unexpected wave Then came the elections that changed everything. Nobody saw a republican sweep coming. A synchronized growth environment came up, and China printed more money, increasing liquidity. This completely shifted the narrative. Tavi and his team thought that China was on the brink of a credit collapse and would get a lot worse in the short term. However, this business cycle extended for a couple of years. Things get bearish In 2017 the market became pretty bearish, and so the team started to do a lot of research and focused on what other indicators they may have missed in terms of liquidity. They created different macro models that revealed that liquidity was still growing in 2016 and 2017. Not so perfect model However, their models missed the fact that liquidity wasn't growing in 2018 and so they ended up missing a bullish moment in 2017. To deal with this, the company had to shrink its positions. They also had to apply new forms of risk metrics to be able to trend those positions and be able to stay in the game. Lessons learned Respect uncertainties You never know the probabilities of when a business cycle could extend for whatever reason.  Being aware of the shifts in the narrative is, therefore, very important. Be open-minded The world will always look vastly different, than most people expect, five years from now. So stay open-minded to change and apply that to your investment process. Refresh your portfolio Work intensely in terms of refreshing your portfolio positions. You want to take a directional position in terms of your trade so that you’re still diversified and not just taking one concentrated position. Andrew’s takeaways Have a framework to be able to deal with inevitable change Change in any investment is inevitable. Have a framework to help you deal with change and manage your risk. Always question, always learn Don’t just be curious about your investment always question your thesis and be sure to move into a thesis a bit more careful. You don’t want to go all-in on one thesis. Instead, do your research so that you can expect the outcome, and then put your thesis to test. Actionable advice If you’re starting today, do extensive research on liquidity and its historical impacts. You also have to understand how global macro research works. No. 1 goal for the next 12 months Tavi hopes to profit from what he believes is one of the best macro setups he has seen in his career and to grow Crescat Capital. He also hopes to continue to evolve as an ambassador and also has a goal to run his fifth marathon next year. Parting words   “Losing is part of the game but, try to learn as much as you can from other people’s mistakes and apply those lessons to your investment process.” Otavio Costa   Andrew’s books How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market My Worst Investment Ever 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points Andrew’s online programs Valuation Master Class Women Building Wealth The Build Your Wealth Membership Group Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points Connect with Otavio Costa LinkedIn Twitter Facebook Website Connect with Andrew Stotz astotz.com LinkedIn Facebook Instagram Twitter YouTube My Worst Investment Ever Podcast  

In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Otávio Costa, better known in the financial markets as Tavi Costa. Tavi is a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and he is responsible for macro research. Tavi begins by talking about his trajectory in the financial markets and tells us more about Crescat Capital, an American company that manages hedge funds. He has been working for this company for the past 6 years. Then Tavi talks about the main topics he's looking at right now and gives us an overview of those topics. Tavi then discusses each of the themes in more detail, exploring historical data and using Crescat's proprietary models. He has a very interesting insight into the US position in the current cycle, and presents data to justify his opinion. When it comes to precious metals, Tavi discusses the current scenario and outlook for the sector. Also, Tavi talks about the relationship between the US Dollar and gold, with a very different point of view from the market. Tavi also talks about China, likely future developments in that country, and what Crescat Capital is doing now. Finally, Tavi reviews his investment thesis and says what can make him change his mind about his investment positions.

Ep. 87 - Crescat barba E pluribus unum 24Jul2019 Attendees Ervin Lukacs, Wayne Ryan Thompson, Jeff Budzinski, Matt Slavin, Kyle Fisher Top News Stuff we missed Galaxy Fold[ed] https://www.samsung.com/global/galaxy/galaxy-fold/ Huawei https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jul/22/government-delays-decision-on-whether-to-restrict-huawei-5g Johnny Ive Leaving Apple https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/27/18761736/jony-ive-apple-leave-iphone-chief-design-officer-lovefrom-company-quit Google Pixel 3a and 3a XL https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/7/18527206/google-pixel-3a-xl-phone-announcement-price-release-date-io-2019 San Francisco proposal would ban government facial recognition use in the city https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/29/18202602/san-francisco-facial-recognition-ban-proposal Amazon workers plan to strike during Prime Day https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/16/20696154/amazon-prime-day-2019-strike-warehouse-workers-inhumane-conditions-the-rate-productivity Microsoft announces Stadia Competitor XCloud at E3 https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/13/18677970/microsoft-xcloud-google-stadia-cloud-gaming-hands-on-e3-2019 https://www.beardsoftech.com/

D'nächst Woch fänkt d'Examenszäit un. Seng Première läit schonn e puer Joer zeréck an zanter e puer Méint genéisst e seng wuelverdéngte Pensioun. 11 Joer war de Jos Salentiny Direkter vum Stader Kolléisch an a sengen 2 Bicher léisst de fréiere Biosproff iwwer 200 Joer Geschicht vum Athénée Revue passéieren. Vivat, Crescat, Floreat !

D'nächst Woch fänkt d'Examenszäit un. Seng Première läit schonn e puer Joer zeréck an zanter e puer Méint genéisst e seng wuelverdéngte Pensioun. 11 Joer war de Jos Salentiny Direkter vum Stader Kolléisch an a sengen 2 Bicher léisst de fréiere Biosproff iwwer 200 Joer Geschicht vum Athénée Revue passéieren. Vivat, Crescat, Floreat !

In episode 152 we welcome Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital. Kevin kicks off the conversation with an overview of Crescat’s approach, the long-only strategy, long/short equity hedge fund, and Global Macro Fund. Tavi then gets into high equity market valuations, their macro model that has timed well in backtests with previous market peaks and troughs in the tech and housing bubbles, 15 countries with 30-year bond yields below the Fed Funds rate, and demand for U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar.  Kevin follows up with some comments on implementation and expressing these views in their portfolio, and why they continue to trust their process and remain net-short equities. Next, Tavi gets into Crescat’s thesis on China and the potential credit bubble, and the vulnerable Chinese currency as a result. Meb then asks about Crescat’s bullish thesis on precious metals. Kevin discusses that trade’s role in the portfolio, and its place as a theme in the global macro fund, which includes, a short equity theme, long precious metals theme, and a short Chinese Yuan theme. Meb asks the pair to get into some of their other themes that stand out as opportunities. Kevin links the Canadian housing bubble and Australian debt crisis themes to China and Chinese capital outflows. He also covers some longs as part of their cybersecurity theme such as Palo Alto Networks. Meb shifts by asking about what investors should takeaway from Crescat’s thinking, Kevin adds that people should think about more tactical asset allocation, become increasingly defensive, and consider some alternatives. Tavi adds that investors may want to consider cash, precious metals, and perhaps some Treasuries.   As the conversation winds down, Meb asks about anything else they consider that isn’t covered widely in the media or by investment managers. Kevin discusses consumer confidence, and Tavi adds twin deficits and an alternative view of beta. All this and more in episode 152.  

Otavio Costa has been an analyst on Crescat's investment team for more than five years with a focus on global cross-asset research. “Tavi” built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. The topics discussed include: What it is like to be a global macro analyst What Otavio pays attention to when building macro models What economic indicators Otavio uses The current state of the business cycle Otavio's view on the US equities market China, Brazil and precious metals What steps Otavio took early in his career to learn his trade Recommendations on how to stay sharp and informed   As always, make sure you share the podcast with anyone you think might benefit from the information. And don't forget to leave us a 5-Star review on Apple Podcasts!   Find out more at https://www.thewallstreetlab.com/   Luke, Leo & Andy

If you experience any technical difficulties with this video or would like to make an accessibility-related request, please send a message to digicomm@uchicago.edu. The 514th Convocation of the University of Chicago was held in Rockefeller Memorial Chapel on March 22, 2013. Richard A. Rosengarten, Associate Professor of Religion and Literature in the Divinity School, delivered the convocation address, titled “In Retrospect.” In his address, Rosengarten invites the graduates to think about what it may mean to celebrate their work in the context of the University’s motto, “Crescat scientia; vita excolatur,” which he translates as “Belief in knowledge enhances life.” He discusses the retrospective aspect and cognitive dissonance of narratives and how these fit together to create the magic of stories.

If you experience any technical difficulties with this video or would like to make an accessibility-related request, please send a message to digicomm@uchicago.edu. The 514th Convocation of the University of Chicago was held in Rockefeller Memorial Chapel on March 22, 2013. Richard A. Rosengarten, Associate Professor of Religion and Literature in the Divinity School, delivered the convocation address, titled “In Retrospect.” In his address, Rosengarten invites the graduates to think about what it may mean to celebrate their work in the context of the University’s motto, “Crescat scientia; vita excolatur,” which he translates as “Belief in knowledge enhances life.” He discusses the retrospective aspect and cognitive dissonance of narratives and how these fit together to create the magic of stories.

If you experience any technical difficulties with this video or would like to make an accessibility-related request, please send a message to digicomm@uchicago.edu. Historical and current perspectives on the African American legacy at the University of Chicago.