Changing Climate, Changing Migration

Does AI have a role to play in mapping and predicting climate migration trends? In this episode of the podcast, we explore the issue with John Aoga, a postdoctoral researcher at UCLouvain in Belgium. He led a study using machine learning algorithms to trace how climate shocks affected migration intentions in several countries in West Africa. We discuss his findings and the broader promise and peril of using these types of technologies to map and predict migration flows.

Under the right circumstances, climate-induced migration can aggravate the drivers of violent conflict. In places such as the Middle East and West Africa's Sahel region, migration during times of environmental precarity can upset delicate social and demographic balances and place additional pressure on local authorities. Left to fester, the results can be deadly. This episode explores this connection between climate change and human mobility in conversation with journalist Peter Schwartzstein, author of the book The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence.

Floods, drought, extreme temperatures, and other climate events have devastated parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Repercussions of climate change come on top of years of conflict, which have left countless numbers of people unable to adapt to changing conditions. In response, many have fled, either in short-term displacement or permanent migration. Our podcast speaks with researchers Maryam Abbasi and Nasrat Sayed about how climate change is compelling migration in Afghanistan and Pakistan, layering on top of conflict as a driver for displacement.

Natural disasters and other impacts of climate change are already affecting migration, but often in complex ways. This episode, we speak with Julia Neusner, a lawyer and researcher with the International Refugee Assistance Project. She has conducted surveys and interviews with migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border about whether, where, and how they have experienced climate impacts, and offers some of their stories here. More than 40 percent of respondents said they experienced climate-related disasters, but few said those factors were the primary reason why they moved—offering further evidence of the fact that the linkages between changing climates and migration are not always clearcut.

Many countries need more workers to fill jobs in clean energy and other sectors that are critical in the fight against a warming planet. Immigrants may be one part of the solution to the challenges posed by climate change. But governments have been slow to ramp up responses to recruit, train, or accredit foreign-born workers necessary for the green transition, with one model estimating a shortage of 7 million green workers globally by 2030. This episode discusses the labor picture and global trends in green sectors with Kate Hooper, a Migration Policy Institute senior policy analyst who focuses on global labor migration.

The international humanitarian protection system that was built in the aftermath of World War II does not offer protection for people displaced by climate change. In this episode, former UN Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees T. Alexander Aleinikoff, who is now Executive Dean of The New School for Social Research, calls the refugee system “broken.” Rather than expanding to accommodate “climate refugees,” he makes the case for starting over with a new paradigm focused on a right not to be displaced. Such a system would be designed to help people stay in their homes through climate adaptations and resilience, he argues, and provide a mechanism for seeking justice. 

The ways in which people talk about climate migration can affect how individuals are treated. While many activists frame climate migrants as blameless victims of circumstance and even refer to them as “climate refugees,” this approach does not always lead to public sympathy. Moreover, highlighting the role of climate in displacement can unintentionally cause a backlash among host communities, who themselves likely are experiencing or expecting to face similar environmental challenges. In this episode, we speak with Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, who is deputy director of MPI's International Program and our in-house expert on public opinion and migration messaging, about the narratives and public attitudes towards climate migrants.

The Arctic region is warming much faster than other parts of the world. Nordic countries—Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—have a reputation for being at the forefront of efforts to combat climate change. But does their track record also extend to helping people who have been displaced by environmental impacts, internally and internationally? In this episode, we discuss the impacts and responses in the Nordic region. Our guests are the researchers Miriam Cullen and Matthew Scott, who are among the leaders of the Nordic Network on Climate Related Displacement and Mobility.

Climate change is remaking vacations, particularly in hot months. Extreme heat can be deadly for tourists and events such as wildfires, hurricanes, and sea-level rise can devastate tourism-dependent communities. Tourism is also a major contributor to climate change, and some travelers have begun rethinking their plans, taking emissions into account as they consider transportation and destinations. This episode explores how climate change is affecting global tourism. Our guest is Daniel Scott, research chair at the University of Waterloo's Department of Geography and Environmental Management and an international research fellow at the School of Hospitality and Tourism at the University of Surrey.

Floods and other fast-moving natural disasters are becoming more common and more severe because of climate change. When these disasters strike, they can displace huge numbers of people. This episode turns to Brazil, where historic flooding in 2024 forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. Our guest is Valéria Emília de Aquino, a human-rights lawyer and researcher in Brazil.

The U.S. military has long warned that climate change poses a challenge to global security. Instability and insecurity can be a result of unmanaged migration, with the potential for widespread climate displacement creating tensions in host communities. And they could also spark additional migration, if people flee precarious political dynamics. This episode, with Climate Migration Council member and retired U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Scott H. Swift, evaluates the security dynamics of climate change and migration, focusing on the Pacific.

Do countries that are major polluters have a moral responsibility to aid people displaced by hurricanes, sea-level rise, and other events driven or exacerbated by climate change? What form might that responsibility take? For this episode, we are joined by Jamie Draper, who focuses on political philosophy and ethics at Utrecht University. While he argues that certain countries do have a responsibility to aid displaced people, labeled “climate migrants” by some, in his view that does not necessarily translate to offering them protection.

The world is grappling with the idea of restitution for people who have been negatively affected by the impacts of climate change—potentially including displacement within a country or across international borders. World leaders are at the early stages of creating a global loss and damage fund to financially compensate these climate victims. Much remains unresolved, including complicated and controversial questions about which countries owe money to whom, and how to attach a dollar figure to intangible losses such as destruction of natural land. In this episode, we speak with Adelle Thomas from Climate Analytics to wade through the thicket of challenges ahead, in particular as relates to climate migrants—those displaced by hostile environmental conditions linked to a rapidly changing climate.

Many people are leaving rural mountain areas around the globe because their livelihoods are becoming less profitable and the threat of landslides and other disasters is increasing. As the impacts of climate change grow, these mountain residents may face additional challenges dealing with environmental disruption. And by moving to urban areas, they may face a new set of issues and lose connection with their homelands. In this episode, we speak with Amina Maharjan from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development about the unique climate migration issues that are witnessed in mountain regions.

A landmark climate migration deal inked in late 2023 would allow hundreds of climate-vulnerable residents of the small island nation of Tuvalu to move to Australia. The pact is the latest step for a region that is at the leading edge globally in policy experimentation to address climate displacement. This Australia-Tuvalu deal, which is not uncontroversial, follows a brief and ultimately shelved attempt by New Zealand to create a “climate refugee” visa. How are these policies playing out, and what can the rest of the world learn from the Pacific experiences? This episode features renowned legal scholar Jane McAdam, who directs the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW.

Migration is complex, and rarely is there only one single factor that prompts people to leave their homes. That is especially true when climate change is involved, since its impacts on internal and international migration are often indirect and hard to trace. So when we talk about climate migration, what exactly do we mean? And why is the distinction important? Kerilyn Schewel, co-director of Duke University's Program on Climate-Related Migration, joins this episode of the podcast to help make sense of the terminology and why it matters.

Can climate-driven international migration pose a security threat? Former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff thinks so, but not necessarily because of the migrants themselves. Irregular migration prompted by climate events can empower smugglers and criminal groups. And it can spur an extremist backlash in receiving countries if people feel their government is not adequately protecting them. Chertoff talks about the security implications of climate change and migration in this episode of the podcast.

Facing the adverse impacts of climate change, many people are better off migrating, whether within their country or internationally, at least for a short time. Yet for a variety of reasons, migration is not always possible. This episode of our podcast focuses on these groups, sometimes known as “trapped populations.” Why do people stay in places where their homes, livelihoods, and their very lives are threatened? We explore these questions with Caroline Zickgraf, deputy director of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liège in Belgium.

Climate migration sounds simple. It's not. This episode of the podcast speaks with Lawrence Huang, MPI's lead researcher on climate change and migration, to answer the most common questions around one of the least understood dynamics in human movement.

Humanitarian organizations often race to help people affected by natural disasters. But what if they could act before catastrophes occur to mitigate disaster-induced forced migration? In this episode, we discuss this kind of anticipatory action and how it might reduce chaotic displacement. Our guests are Gana Gantulga and Zeke Simperingham from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

When large numbers of asylum seekers and other migrants arrive at the borders of Western countries without prior authorization to enter, they are often treated as “spontaneous” arrivals. But migration is almost never truly spontaneous. Usually, human mobility across international borders is the result of complicated decision-making and a careful weighing of the costs and benefits. This episode features David Leblang, a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Virginia, who discusses how climate change fits into the migration calculus.

Increasingly, human beings are city dwellers. More than half the global population lives in an urban area, and the rates are increasing. Some new urban residents may be fleeing rural areas vulnerable to the impact of climate change. But are they likely to fare much better in the city when it comes to climate impacts? And are fast-growing cities around the world prepared to confront environmental challenges that come with rising populations? This episode discusses these questions with noted climate expert Neil Adger, a professor of human geography at the University of Exeter.

People displaced by climate change are not eligible for refugee status. But should countries extend any sort of legal protections to them? Our guest, Ama Francis, a climate displacement project strategist with the International Refugee Assistance Project and Columbia Law School's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, thinks so. In this episode, we discuss some small ongoing initiatives and what new legal pathways might look like. 

Is the world facing a chaotic century of mass migration spurred by climate change? As the planet's temperature warms, award-winning environmental journalist Gaia Vince thinks so. In her book, Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World, she contemplates a future in which hundreds of millions of people move from one part of the globe to another in a planned and deliberate migration. We discuss her bold solutions for managing what she terms a species emergency in this episode.

Guyana is a small country in South America that undoubtedly will be greatly transformed by the recent discovery of massive offshore oil reserves. Extremely vulnerable to climate change, with predictions that its capital will be underwater by 2030, Guyana has been known as a green champion, trapping more carbon dioxide than emits. How will the world's fastest growing economy manage environmental change, particularly with economic growth and proximity to troubled Venezuela likely to drive significant immigration? We discuss these dynamics with Camila Idrovo and Jermaine Grant from the Pan American Development Foundation.

Do host communities respond differently to people migrating because of environmental impacts compared to refugees fleeing war or migrants seeking work? Research suggests the answer is yes. Multiple factors affect relations between communities and new arrivals, and migrants' perceived levels of deservingness can be influenced by the reasons why they move. In this episode, we speak with Sabrina Arias and Christopher Blair about their study of responses to climate migrants in the United States and Germany.

Concerns that large numbers of people will be displaced by climate change and head to wealthy countries in North America and Europe are often misplaced, according to migration scholar Hein de Haas. These types of narratives can tap into anti-immigrant sentiments, allow governments to avoid responsibility for their own failures, and may overlook the large numbers of people forced to remain in place amid environmental disaster, he argues in this episode. 

Environmental disasters can force people out of their homes and communities, complicating responses to ongoing humanitarian protection efforts. As a result, many humanitarian organizations have started paying attention to the impacts of climate change for multiple aspects of their refugee protection work. For this episode, we speak with Joan Rosenhauer, the executive director of Jesuit Refugee Service/USA, about how natural disasters and other environmental harms affect her organization's work and its faith-based mission.

The UN migration agency, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in 2015 created a special division responsible for migration-related issues involving the environment and climate change. The division just got a new leader and is looking to embark on a new agenda. This episode of the podcast features a discussion with new division head Manuel Marques Pereira, who talks about his office's role and priorities in dealing with migration shaped by climatic events. 

Global warming and extreme heat are behind many of the phenomena linked to climate change. Hotter weather also has an impact on migration and on migrants, particularly in destinations such as the Middle East and parts of the United States. In recent years, there has been more attention paid to cases of migrant workers dying from the heat. In this episode, we speak with Tord Kjellstrom, a physician and researcher who has closely studied the relationship between extreme heat and population health, about what extreme heat means for migrants.

In Western countries, a common narrative has developed that only poor or developing nations will have to confront human displacement caused by climate change. But communities in the United States and elsewhere have repeatedly moved because of environmental disasters such as flooding. This episode features a discussion on the U.S. government's responses to internal displacement, with Kavi Chintam and Chris Jackson, co-authors of an Issues in Science and Technology article analyzing the approach to managed retreat.

Technically, people forced to move because of climate disasters are not considered “refugees.” But the UN refugee agency, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, still takes climate issues into account, and since 2020 Andrew Harper has been its special advisor on climate action. We talked with Harper about his agency's role in responding to climate issues, which regions of the world are most likely to be affected by climate impacts, and why climate is a “vulnerability multiplier” for refugees.

Popular discussions usually frame climate change-induced migration negatively, often as a strategy of last resort. But migrating abroad can also be an effective way to build resilience against the impacts of climate change. This episode discusses how migration can bring social, economic, and other benefits to migrants and their communities, in conversation with University of Vienna human geographer Harald Sterly.

Hundreds of thousands of migrants have left Central America in recent years, and climate extremes have been identified as one of the factors that might be driving this movement, along with elements such as political instability and violence. In this episode, we hear from geographer and climatologist Diego Pons, of Colorado State University, to dissect how changing climate, food insecurity, and migration intersect in this region.

Climate change and international migration both are global issues with aspects that countries try to manage through treaties, pacts, and other types of agreements. But most of the global governance frameworks that exist for climate-induced migration require only voluntary commitments by states. This episode features a discussion with political scientist Nick Micinski, author of the forthcoming books, UN Global Compacts: Governing Migrants and Refugees and Delegating Responsibility: International Cooperation on Migration in the European Union.

Among the earliest examples of the disruptions that climate change can bring, some low-lying island countries in the Pacific Ocean are facing serious threats from rising sea levels and coastal erosion. Over the long term, atoll nations such as Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands might eventually need to relocate some or all of their populations. But not everyone wants to migrate, and governments have balanced supporting people who relocate with other ways of adapting to changing conditions. Carol Farbotko, of Australia's University of the Sunshine Coast and the University of Tasmania, joins the podcast to discuss the policies and dynamics in place in this region.

Climate change is already affecting how, whether, and where people migrate. But environmental change is likely to become more extreme in the coming decades, unless the world takes serious action now. How might changes made now impact what future migration looks like? This episode features a conversation with Robert McLeman, a geographer and environmental studies expert at Canada's Wilfrid Laurier University, about the possible scenarios that lie ahead for the relationship between climate change and migration, depending on how countries act in the next few decades.  

Reliable access to food—or lack thereof—can affect an individual's decision to migrate. Climate change has the ability to exacerbate food insecurity, especially for farmers and others who live off the land, which can have repercussions for human mobility. In this episode we talk with Megan Carney, an anthropologist and director of the University of Arizona's Center for Regional Food Studies, to examine the role of food security in the connection between climate change and migration.

Billions of dollars are being spent on projects to help communities mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including those at risk of being displaced by environmental events. This episode features Timo Schmidt, from the Migration Policy Institute Europe, in a discussion about the growing field of climate finance and its implications for migration management and displacement prevention.

Confronting environmental change, whole communities sometimes relocate from one area to another. This purposeful, coordinated movement, while currently rare, is referred to as managed retreat. In this episode Architesh Panda, from the London School of Economics' Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, explains how this climate adaptation strategy works in India.

There are a lot of predictions about how many people will migrate in response to climate change. Depending on where you look, the next few decades could see hundreds of millions – or even more than a billion – people pick up and move. We asked Julia Blocher, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, to explain why the predictions vary so much. We also discussed how this movement can lead to conflict.

The relationship between climate change and migration is long and complex. Human civilizations have been affected by environmental conditions for centuries, but we should be wary of arguments that huge numbers of people are inevitably destined to migrate in response to specific climate threats. In this episode, we chat with Alex de Sherbinin of Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network about what the research shows – and doesn't show.