The Nuclear View

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss China's development of a non-nuclear hydrogen bomb, exploring its scientific basis, implications for military strategy, and the broader context of China's advancements in military technology. They analyze the potential uses of such weapons, particularly in relation to Taiwan, and the messaging strategies employed by China in the global arena. The conversation highlights the challenges posed by new conventional weapons and the need for a robust deterrence strategy.00:00 Introduction to the Episode01:08 China's Non-Nuclear Hydrogen Bomb03:09 Scientific Evaluation of the Weapon12:14 China's Advancements in Military Technology15:44 Implications of New Weapons on Global Security24:36 Strategic Use of Conventional Weapons29:09 Conclusion and Future ConsiderationsGet Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Like and follow us –LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

Inspired by Miles Yu's recent article, " A dangerous myth of US-China Cold War tensions," Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the complexities of US-China relations. Through a Cold War prism, they explore economic imbalances, trade deficits, and the implications of intellectual property theft and their impact on deterrence. The conversation delves into historical perspectives on Cold War definitions, military strategies, and the current geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for a strategic approach to counter China's growing influence.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Context of the Discussion01:14 The Myth of US-China Cold War Tensions03:39 Economic Imbalance and Trade Deficits08:51 The Nature of the Current US-China Relationship12:08 Defining Cold War: Historical Perspectives15:43 Military and Economic Strategies in the Cold War18:48 Export Dependency and Economic Warfare22:27 Critical Dependencies and Supply Chains26:46 The Need for a Real Cold War30:42 Conclusion: The Future of US-China RelationsGet Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Like and follow us:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com/ Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

Adam and Curtis analyze a recent Foreign Affairs article, " Europe's Nuclear Trilemma," by Fabian Hoffmann and Mark Bell. Alongside reviewing the author's intriguing three options, Adam and Curtis discuss the unfounded fear of a US/NATO split, the economic and political contexts of U.S. defense spending, the significance of NATO contributions from European nations, and the challenges of nuclear deterrence in Europe. The conversation explores various strategies for European defense and the cultural attitudes towards military engagement, ultimately concluding with reflections on the future of NATO and the necessity for credible deterrence.Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Like and follow us –LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com/ X.com: https://x.com/security_wonk Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss their top three wishes for improving the nuclear enterprise and national security as we move through 2025. Jim emphasizes the need for revitalizing the public's understanding of nuclear issues and workforce development. Curtis advocates for a cultural shift towards deterrence over defense and more effective deterrence projection, while Adam focuses on budget balancing and avoiding unnecessary wars. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of these themes and the importance of a robust nuclear strategy.Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Like and follow us – LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com/ X.com: https://x.com/security_wonk Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the escalating threats from North Korea under Kim Jong Un, the historical context of North Korea's relations with South Korea, Japan, and the United States, and the implications of nuclear weapons in the region. They explore the dynamics of international alliances, particularly the relationship between North Korea and Russia, and the challenges of diplomacy in maintaining regional stability.Brought to you by the National Institute for Deterrence Studies (NIDS) https://thinkdeterrence.com/ https://globalsecurityreview.com/Get Involved with more of NIDS Services. https://thinkdeterrence.com/outreach/Deterrence Education at NIDS Education - Hosted by the National Institute for Deterrence StudiesSocial Media: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrenceX.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrenceYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thinkdeterrenceRumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrenceGlobal Security Review LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/globalsecurityreview X.com: https://x.com/security_wonkOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode, Curtis hosts a March 2025 news round-up with Adam and Jim, focusing on four articles: STRATCOM's call for 145 B-21 bombers, North Korea's development of nuclear submarines, Poland's push for nuclear weapons, and France's modernization of its nuclear arsenal. The conversation highlights nuclear weapon developments, and the importance of deterrence in today's geopolitical landscape, and the evolving military strategies of various nations.Brought to you by the National Institute for Deterrence Studies (NIDS) https://thinkdeterrence.com/ https://globalsecurityreview.com/ Get Involved with more of NIDS Services. https://thinkdeterrence.com/outreach/ Deterrence Education at NIDS Education - Hosted by the National Institute for Deterrence Studies Social Media: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thinkdeterrence Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/globalsecurityreview X.com: https://x.com/security_wonk Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

Adam, Curtis, and Jim address the idea posited in a recent foreign affairs article, "When Nuclear Weapons Fail to Deter." In recent years, the complex role of nuclear weapons in global security and deterrence effectiveness has been tested. The discussion highlights various historical and contemporary examples, including the dynamics between nuclear and non-nuclear states, the stability-instability paradox, and the motivations behind nuclear proliferation. The speakers emphasize the nuanced understanding of nuclear weapons as tools for preventing large-scale conflicts rather than as absolute deterrents against all forms of aggression.Article: When Nuclear Weapons Fail to Deter | Foreign Affairshttps://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/when-nuclear-weapons-fail-deter

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss Bob Peters' recent Heritage Foundation article outlining recommendations for rebuilding the nuclear arsenal. They explore the implications of executive orders, the importance of public awareness, and several more interesting items on the list. The conversation hotly debates the question of a new NPR and bombers.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Nuclear Arsenal Discussions01:47 The Need for Executive Orders in Nuclear Policy05:48 The Role of Public Awareness in Nuclear Modernization10:09 Debating the Necessity of a New Nuclear Posture Review20:08 Developing a Two-Peer Deterrence Strategy22:44 Strategic Defense Decisions25:04 Modernization Challenges in Military28:03 The Need for Increased Bomber Production29:57 Addressing Pilot Shortages and Operational Readiness31:49 Innovative Nuclear Capabilities Discussion35:59 Future of Military Strategy and Technologyhttps://www.heritage.org/defense/report/road-map-rebuilding-americas-nuclear-arsenal

Adam, Curtis, and Jim continue discussing Dr. Keith Payne's article "Deterrence and Arms Control: Ending the Deceptive "Holiday from History." The conversation reviews the second four of the eight common but demonstrably false worldview beliefs, as posited by Dr. Payne, and assesses his suggestions to alter these idealist canards. The discussion continues from last week's TNV podcast and emphasizes the need for a realistic approach to arms control and the importance of understanding adversaries' motivations in the geopolitical landscape.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss Dr. Keith Payne's article "Deterrence and Arms Control: Ending the Deceptive "Holiday from History," exploring the historical context of U.S. nuclear deterrence policy, the failures of idealism in foreign policy, and the need for accountability in Washington. The conversation reviews the first four of the eight common worldview beliefs that are demonstrably false, as posited by Dr. Payne. The discussion, which continues with next week's TNV podcast, emphasizes the need for a realistic approach to arms control and the importance of understanding adversaries' motivations in the geopolitical landscape.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss President Trump's executive order regarding the establishment of an Iron Dome for America, exploring its implications for national security, deterrence theory, and the costs associated with missile defense systems.

In this episode, Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss a recent article by Curtis and senior fellow Kirk Fansher about President Trump's 'Peace Through Strength.' They explore the challenges of near-term deterrence enhancement during a sluggish modernization timeline and the necessity of negotiating from a position of strength. The conversation also touches on current workforce and industrial base capabilities and the balance between deterrence and warfighting, emphasizing the need for a new strategic approach to national security. https://globalsecurityreview.com/peace-through-strength-enhancing-americas-nuclear-deterrence-today/

In this episode of the NIDS View, Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the recent 2025 Nuclear Deterrence Summit, focusing on the challenges faced in nuclear facility construction, the complexities of logistics and oversight, and the cultural shifts within the nuclear policy landscape. They explore the need for a more streamlined approach to nuclear projects, the importance of risk tolerance, and the role of potential international collaboration, particularly in the context of AUKUS.

Curtis hosts a discussion with Jim and Maj Gen (Ret.) Garrett Harencak, focusing on recent developments in nuclear news, particularly regarding the New START Treaty and Russia's compliance, informal agreements in arms control, Japan's nuclear deterrence strategy, and the importance of extended deterrence in global security.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss an article from SIPRI positing that NATO's conventional precision strike weapon systems are potentially destabilizing, particularly concerning Russia's nukes. They explore their impact on regional deterrence, politics, and defense spending.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim welcome Retired Lieutenant General Inbum Chun to discuss the issue of whether South Korea should develop its own nuclear arsenal in response to the threats posed by North Korea and China

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the implications of the 'America First' policy, contrasting views from Keith Payne and Hal Brands, and the importance of national identity and sovereignty in U.S. governance.

In this "Best of" episode, Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the recent revelation by CIA and MI6 intel leaders that Putin almost deployed nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict in 2022. The hosts discuss the likely targets and effects of such a scenario, as well as the strategic motivations behind it. They also touch on the science of nuclear weapons and the misconceptions surrounding their low-yield use.Originally recorded: September 11,2024, S02 E91

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss Matt Loh's article in Business Insider titled "The nuclear weapons era is making a comeback, and experts say we're all not paying attention." The guys discuss this resurgence of nuclear weapons as a hot topic and the impact the changing strategic environment is making on deterrence and disarmament thinkers alike. https://www.businessinsider.com/nuclear-weapons-era-comeback-china-us-russia-experts-2024-8Originally Released: September 4, 2024

In this episode, Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in nuclear command and control systems, referencing a recent WOTR article that suggests using a risk assessment model similar to that in civilian nuclear power. They examine the challenges of integrating AI into decision-making, the associated human factors, and the potential benefits and risks for nuclear deterrence. The conversation also touches on U.S.-China dynamics concerning AI in nuclear decisions and emphasizes the need for informed discussions about AI technologies.Disclaimer: The views of the hosts and guests are their own and do not reflect the views of any affiliations they may have.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss a recent article by Madelyn Creedon and Frank Miller that highlights the urgent need for nuclear modernization and suggests bypassing the lengthy process of a 2025 NPR to maintain progress. The conversation explores the advantages and disadvantages of a new NPR and its contribution to timely deterrence strategies, government policies, and its influence on corporate responsiveness within the defense sector.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the implications of Russia's updated nuclear doctrine in light of White House approval to let Ukraine launch US-made ATAMS into Russia and the strategic messaging surrounding the Ukraine conflict.

In this "Best Of" episode which originally aired on October 9th, 2024, Adam, Curtis, and Jim are joined by Jonathan Cefalu, the founder of Preamble. Mr. Cefalu shares insights on enhancing artificial intelligence (AI) trust, specifically in nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) systems. https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/ai-at-war/

Adam and Curtis discuss possible nuclear deterrence policy under the Trump administration, the potential for increased nuclear participation from allies, and his realist approach to adversaries.

The NIDS teams discusses minimal deterrence and why it is not a viable way to obtain a deterrent effect.

Curtis hosts former intelligence officer Jim Klingmeyer as they discuss the recent deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine, the potential for an AI arms race in national security, and the latest DIA intel report.

In this episode, Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the concept of sole authority in nuclear weapons launch decisions, addressing misconceptions and the complexities of the decision-making process. They emphasize the importance of command and control, historical context, and the role of the president while also examining recent legislative proposals that could impact the timeliness of nuclear launch authority.Related Article: America Needs a Dead Hand More than Ever - War on the Rocks

Adam, Curtis, Jim, and special guest Dr. Lani Kass provide insight into the dynamics of Israeli deterrence, the financial aspects of the Middle East conflict, and the challenges Israel faces in restoring its deterrent posture.

In this episode, Curtis and Jim discuss the National Nuclear Security Administration's recent achievement of producing the first plutonium pit in 35 years. They delve into the complex process of their production, the challenges faced in ramping up production to meet future demands, and speculations regarding a recent seismic event in Iran.*Special Note: Sometimes we get it wrong, but we can correct the record. In this podcast, we miscommunicated several points due to outdated data or poor wording. NIDS Fellow, Derek Williams, has provided the following clarifications:The 80 pits per year requirement originates from a GAO report, not the 2018 NPR.Contrary to our statement, DOE/NNSA produced pits at Los Alamos between 2007 and 2011.Deuterium is not radioactive; only Tritium is, with a half-life of 12.33 years.We apologize for any confusion caused and appreciate Derek Williams for the corrections.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim are joined by Jonathan Cefalu, the founder of Preamble. Mr. Cefalu shares insights on enhancing artificial intelligence (AI) trust, specifically in nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) systems.

In this episode of the NIDS view, Adam and Jim are joined by Senior Fellow, Rob Kittinger, as they discuss the concept of a transparent ocean and its implications for military strategy and nuclear deterrence.

In this episode of The NIDS View podcast, Adam, Jim, and Curtis host Gerald Goodfellow, a retired Air Force general and CEO of the Small Business Consulting Corporation, to discuss the challenges of military acquisition and contracting and the need to foster small business innovation.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the recent revelation by CIA and MI6 intel leaders that Putin almost deployed nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict in 2022. The hosts discuss the likely targets and effects of such a scenario, as well as the strategic motivations behind it. They also touch on the science of nuclear weapons and the misconceptions surrounding their low-yield use.

Adam, Curtis, and special guest John Swegle discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine and its broader implications, including the changing character of warfare, the toll on casualties and infrastructure, the role of nuclear deterrence, and the winners and losers of the conflict to date.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss Matt Loh's article in Business Insider titled "The nuclear weapons era is making a comeback, and experts say we're all not paying attention." The guys discuss this resurgence of nuclear weapons as a hot topic and the impact the changing strategic environment is making on deterrence and disarmament thinkers alike. https://www.businessinsider.com/nuclear-weapons-era-comeback-china-us-russia-experts-2024-8

In this episode, Adam and Curtis discuss the recent STRATCOM deterrence symposium and a panel featuring Congressman John Garamendi, who advocated for fewer nukes and elimination of the ICBM. In addition to offering responses to the congressman's arguments, they also review the different perspectives of realists and idealists when it comes to nuclear deterrence.

Jim, Chris Stone, and Dr. Wallace Clark discuss several concerns, issues, and challenges facing the Nuclear Command Control and Communication System (NC3). The discussion reviews what can be done to enable a more survivable and effective integrated space and ground NC3 architecture for national defense.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the article 'The New Nuclear Alliance Against the West' by Steve Blank, which explores the cooperative relationship between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. They look at motivations behind this alliance and implications for global security.

In this episode, Adam is joined by Alex and special guest, Fei-Ling Wang, to discuss the current events in China and the future of the American-led international order.

In this episode, Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the need to place bombers back on alert, the challenges of maintaining a small bomber force, the technical aspects, and their value for deterrence.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim engage in a thought-provoking discussion on Dr. Brad Roberts' article "The Next Chapter in US Nuclear Policy." They dissect Dr. Roberts' adversaries' theory of victory, the complexities of nuclear disarmament, and the crucial role of a credible deterrent.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim assess David Trachtenberg's article "how the lack of a two-war strategy erodes extended deterrence and assurance" and discuss the implications for national security strategy.

Adam, Alex, and Curtis discuss China's nuclear arsenal expansion, their motives, and the need for the US to address the issue.

Curtis and Kirk discuss several current national security news topics occurring in June 2024. The new annual SIPRI report release, NATO's call for more nukes (and Russia's response), and Putin's latest peace negotiation offer. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2024/role-nuclear-weapons-grows-geopolitical-relations-deteriorate-new-sipri-yearbook-out-nowhttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-talks-put-nuclear-weapons-standby-boss-tells-uks-telegraph-2024-06-17/https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss an article by Peter Huessy in response to an article by Tara Drozdenko arguing for the elimination of the ICBM leg of the triad.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss Hal Brands' article "An 'America First' World" published on ForeignAffairs.com. Dr. Brands assesses what a Second "America First" presidency might mean for foreign and defense policy. The guys debate interventionism versus non-interventionism, evaluating which approach is better and how deterrence might impact the policy.

Adam, Chris Stone, and Kerry Kartchner discuss Russian space activities and their potential violations of the Outer Space Treaty as well as impact on global security.

Jim Stokes joins Adam and Alex as they discuss the role of NATO in the current geopolitical landscape.

Adam, Alex, and special guest, Mike Carey, discuss the future of Russia and China after the war in Ukraine and the potential conflict over Taiwan.

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the merits of article 'What We Don't Know About Nuclear Deterrence Could Hurt Us' by Paul Poast. The hosts explore the validity of the points made in the article and the challenges of measuring the effectiveness of deterrence.

Adam and Curtis join noted China expert, Dr Alex Littlefield to explore the trendy idea of a new cold war between the US and China and highlight the political, economic, technological, and military traits of China that make it a more formidable adversary than the Soviet Union.