Podcast appearances and mentions of Hal Brands

For our sixth episode of "History and our Current World," Jeremi Suri joins Kelly to discuss how policymakers can effectively use historical analogies without falling into the trap of oversimplification. They discuss how examining multiple historical cases rather than relying on a single analogy like Munich or Vietnam can result in better policy outcomes. Jeremi holds the Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at The University of Texas at Austin, and is a Professor in UT Austin's Department of History and the LBJ School of Public Affairs. He is the author and editor of eleven books on contemporary politics and foreign policy, most recently Civil War By Other Means: America's Long and Unfinished Fight for Democracy. His other books include The Impossible Presidency: The Rise and Fall of America's Highest Office; Henry Kissinger and the American Century; Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama; and The Power of the Past: History and Statecraft, edited with Hal Brands. Link to Civil War By Other Means: https://www.amazon.com/Civil-War-Other-Means-Unfinished/dp/1541758544  The opinions expressed in this conversation are strictly those of the participants and do not represent the views of Georgetown University or any government entity. Produced by Theo Malhotra and Freddie Mallinson.  Recorded on April 7, 2025. Diplomatic Immunity, a podcast from the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University, brings you frank and candid conversations with experts on the issues facing diplomats and national security decision-makers around the world. Funding support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. For more, visit our website, and follow us on Linkedin, Twitter @GUDiplomacy, and Instagram @isd.georgetown

Is there a stable state the US and China can hope for on the road to AGI? To discuss we have on today Dan Hendrycks. A CS PhD, Dan runs the Center for AI Safety and is an advisor at xAI and Scale AI. Here's his superintelligence strategy: https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/ For some more direct lessons from the Cold War to today's US-China dynamics, check out the show I did with Hal Brands (https://www.chinatalk.media/p/cold-war-lessons-for-us-china-today) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is there a stable state the US and China can hope for on the road to AGI? To discuss we have on today Dan Hendrycks. A CS PhD, Dan runs the Center for AI Safety and is an advisor at xAI and Scale AI. Here's his superintelligence strategy: https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/ For some more direct lessons from the Cold War to today's US-China dynamics, check out the show I did with Hal Brands (https://www.chinatalk.media/p/cold-war-lessons-for-us-china-today) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Five years ago last week, the world shut down. The coronavirus that caused COVID-19 had first emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. By March 2020, it had become a global pandemic leading to mass death and grinding the global economy to a halt, with some labeling it "the most disruptive global event since the Great Depression and World War 2." Hoping to prevent those ill with the deadly respiratory virus from overwhelming the capacity of hospital systems, governments around the world sought to "flatten the curve" by mandating the closure of businesses and schools, and ordering people to stay at home. The extent to which governments took such measures varied, both between and within countries. But the overall effect was that for a few months in 2022, the earth seemed to truly stand still. Even as the pandemic was still unfolding, analysts openly wondered whether it would "fundamentally alter globalization, democracy, capitalism, multilateralism, the predominance of US power, and other core features of the pre-COVID international system," as one collection of research papers put it. Some asserted it would dramatically change the global order, as it offered an opportunity for China to use its ability to quickly contain its outbreak - as well as its control over the supply of personal protective equipment - to claim superiority over the U.S. and Western countries that struggled to do so. Others saw the pandemic's impact working in the opposite direction, viewing it as China's "Chernobyl moment." By this argument, Beijing's inability to keep the virus from spreading globally would be a death blow to the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy, just as Moscow's inability to prevent and address the consequences of the 1986 meltdown of the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl, Ukraine, undermined Communist Party rule in the former Soviet Union. Regardless of exactly how the pandemic might affect the global order, the international relations scholars Hal Brands and Frank Gavin seemed to be speaking for everyone when they wrote in their 2020 book, "COVID19 and World Order," that "even after the virus is contained, the consequences will be with us for some time." But reflecting on the pandemic five years later, it seems that its main impact on the global order was that it had no impact at all. Rather than serving as a profound shock on the scale of the 20th century's world wars, COVID-19 appears to have come and gone. That's not to say that it wasn't meaningful or that it had no impact. To the contrary, consider how many people still make a point of getting the latest COVID-19 vaccination booster, or the fact that masking is now more common than it was in the "before times." But rather than changing the global order, COVID-19 was more a reflection and product of that order. That it was a reflection of the current international system is most evident with respect to the global economy. As global exchange ground to halt, investors fled the markets to protect their financial assets. But in turning instead to the U.S. dollar, they underscored the greenback's already established role as the world's most prominent reserve currency and ultimate safe haven. Additionally, the failure to contain the global spread of the virus, which was enabled by the ease with which people and products travel from one country to another these days, underscored the highly interconnected nature of the global economy. Indeed, COVID-19's spread, while staggering in scale, was not unprecedented. Like the severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, virus in 2002, and even worries over the potential spread of bird flu today, COVID-19 simply made it clear that global pandemics are an ever-present risk in today's globalized economy. With respect to COVID-19 being a product of the international order, the rapid spread of the pandemic was also due to a failure of international cooperation. In particular, the key feature of the current global order is the emergence of China ...

Đầu năm 2025, lịch sử thế giới như đang tăng tốc. Cuộc xâm lăng của Nga vào Ukraina, khởi đầu từ tháng 2/2022, bước sang giai đoạn đầy bất định với việc tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump đảo ngược hoàn toàn chính sách của người tiền nhiệm : Nga từ đối thủ chuyển thành đối tác, Ukraina từ chỗ là đồng minh có nguy cơ bị gạt hẳn ra rìa. Chủ trương của chính quyền tổng thống Trump bình thường hóa nhanh chóng quan hệ với Matxcơva, thách thức các giá trị chung về dân chủ, nhân quyền, nhà nước pháp quyền, đang đặt Liên Hiệp Châu Âu nói riêng và Châu Âu nói chung trước thách thức chưa từng có kể từ Thế Chiến Hai.Cuộc điện đàm lần thứ hai : Trump ngả hẳn về phía Putin Ông Donald Trump trước khi làm tổng thống đã tuyên bố sẽ chấm dứt chiến tranh tại Ukraina trong « vòng 24 giờ », thời hạn sau đó được chuyển thành 100 ngày. Trên truyền thông, tổng thống Mỹ liên tục thể hiện mình là nhà lãnh đạo mong muốn hòa bình, thương xót cho sinh mạng của hàng nghìn người vô tội trong cuộc chiến tranh, mà theo ông sẽ không thể nổ ra, nếu Donald Trump làm tổng thống nước Mỹ vào thời điểm đó. Giải Nobel Hòa bình cũng thường được nhiều người cho là ước mơ của nhà lãnh đạo bị coi là ái kỷ.Ba tuần sau khi nhậm chức, ngày 12/02/2025, Donald Trump đã điện đàm với tổng thống Nga Vladimir Putin. Các cuộc đàm phán Mỹ - Nga tìm giải pháp cho chiến tranh Ukraina và nối lại quan hệ ngay lập tức bắt đầu tại Ả Rập Xê Út. Ngày 18/03, đã diễn ra cuộc điện đàm thứ hai rất được trông đợi của tổng thống Mỹ với lãnh đạo Nga. Một trong các mục tiêu của cuộc điện đàm là để phía Nga đưa ra quan điểm chính thức về đề xuất « ngừng bắn toàn diện 30 ngày » không kèm theo các điều kiện tiên quyết, để mở đường cho các đàm phán Nga – Ukraina tìm giải pháp hòa bình bền vững. Về mặt chính thức, đề xuất của Mỹ, mà Ukraina chấp thuận, cũng được các nước châu Âu ủng hộ.Rút cuộc trong cuộc điện đàm ngày 18/03, tổng thống Nga chỉ chấp nhận ngừng bắn 30 ngày đối với các cơ sở hạ tầng năng lượng, và một lần nữa nhấn mạnh đến các đòi hỏi triệt để, như yêu cầu phương Tây ngừng viện trợ quân sự, Kiev phải ngừng tuyển quân, những dấu hiệu ban đầu cho thấy Matxcơva không để ngỏ khả năng đàm phán về một nền hòa bình bền vững.Đọc thêmTriển vọng đàm phán Nga - Mỹ về Ukraina: Chiến lược đòi hỏi tối đa của PutinTheo nhiều nhà quan sát, tổng thống Donald Trump, người thường tự quảng bá là làm chủ nghệ thuật đàm phán, cho phép đạt được những kết quả khó tin, trong cuộc điện đàm với Putin đã gần như không thu được kết quả đáng kể nào. Trả lời RFI sau cuộc điện đàm Trump – Putin lần thứ hai, chuyên gia về địa chiến lược Nicolas Tenzer, giảng viên Học viện Sciences – Po, Paris, nghiêng về quan điểm, trên thực tế tổng thống Mỹ đã ngả hẳn về phía điện Kremlin:« Tôi không chắc là Trump đã thực sự muốn áp đặt với Putin một điều gì đó, nếu không phải chỉ là một thỏa thuận ngừng bắn mang tính hình thức này. Mà ngay ở thỏa thuận ngừng bắn nói trên, Trump cũng không thành công. Về thực chất, Putin hiểu rõ rằng Trump không coi Ukraina là gì cả. Giữa hai người, tổng thống Nga và tổng thống Mỹ, có một sự đồng cảm về ý thức hệ. Cả hai đều có chung quan điểm không coi Ukraina ra gì. Thậm chí, hơn thế nữa hai tổng thống Mỹ, Nga cũng không đếm xỉa gì đến vấn đề ‘‘tội ác chiến tranh'', ‘‘tội ác chống nhân loại'' của quân đội Nga ở Ukraina. Họ cũng bất chấp số phận của các trẻ em Ukraina bị bắt sang Nga. Họ bất chấp luật pháp quốc tế, luật pháp quốc tế về biên giới. Trump chỉ muốn qua việc này củng cố hình ảnh của bản thân. Nhưng điều nghịch lý là, ngay cả với mục tiêu này, Trump cũng không thành công, bởi vì tổng thống Mỹ xuất phát từ thế yếu. Chúng ta nhớ là trong cuộc điện đàm đầu tiên (ngày 12/02/2025), Trump đã nhượng bộ tất cả với Putin. Điều đó cho thấy là Trump không còn khả năng nào để áp đặt với Putin bất cứ điều gì ! »Đảo ngược chính sách: Nga từ đối thủ chuyển thành « nước bạn » tương laiChuyên gia về địa chiến lược Nicolas Tenzer cũng như nhiều nhà quan sát khác nghiêng về khả năng Donald Trump và Vladimir Putin đã sớm có một thỏa thuận ngầm về chiến tranh tại Ukraina và trong hồ sơ này, sự tồn vong của một quốc gia Ukraina không có ý nghĩa đáng kể gì. Sau đây là nhận định của nhà nghiên cứu Nicolas Tenzer với Đài Europe 1, sau cuộc điện đàm Trump – Putin đầu tiên hôm 12/02:« Chúng ta thấy có vẻ như Trump đã đạt được một thỏa thuận ngầm với Putin. Trump đã quên hẳn việc nêu ra vấn đề tội ác chiến tranh, tội ác chống nhân loại mà Nga đã phạm phải tại Ukraina. Trump sẵn sàng, ta có thể nói, ‘‘đẩy Ukraina khỏi chuyến xe''. Không có lời nào khác hơn để mô tả thực tế này. Bây giờ điều rất quan trọng là châu Âu phải có một tiếng nói thống nhất : Phải cho thấy điều này là không thể chấp nhận được ! Trump không thể một mình thỏa thuận riêng với Putin (về chiến tranh Ukraina). Chúng ta cần nhớ rằng, cho đến nay, các nước châu Âu gồm Liên Âu cùng Anh Quốc, Na Uy, đã hỗ trợ Ukraina nhiều hơn nước Mỹ. Như vậy, chúng ta cần phải có mặt tại bàn đàm phán, cho dù Trump không muốn như vậy. »Sự trở lại của Trump và 3 kịch bản với Liên Âu : Củng cố, suy yếu – chia rẽ, hay tan rã Cuộc xâm lăng của Nga vào Ukraina bùng lên đầu năm 2022, khối 27 nước ngay lập tức đứng về phía Ukraina. Một mặt trận hậu thuẫn rộng lớn đối với Ukraina được thiết lập. Về mặt ngoại giao, Đại Hội Đồng Liên Hiệp Quốc ra nhiều nghị quyết lên án Nga xâm lược với khoảng 140 phiếu thuận trên tổng số hơn 190 thành viên. Hàng loạt biện pháp trừng phạt Nga được Mỹ, Liên Âu và các đồng minh khác. Cùng với Mỹ, Liên Âu là một bên hỗ trợ chủ yếu về quân sự cho Kiev.Tuy nhiên, cuộc xâm lăng của Nga chống Ukraina không chỉ là do tham vọng của Nga, muốn khôi phục lại đế chế hùng mạnh xưa kia, như đúc kết của nhiều chuyên gia. Cuộc chiến này diễn ra trong bối cảnh « kiến trúc an ninh châu Âu », được xác lập từ nửa thế kỷ nay, đặc biệt với Hiệp định Helsinki 1975, được ký kết thời Chiến tranh Lạnh với thế đối đầu giữa hai khối cộng sản và phương Tây, đã hoàn toàn rệu rã. Thời thế đã hoàn toàn thay đổi, nhưng các quốc gia trong khu vực, và đặc biệt là khối Liên Hiệp Châu Âu, đã không có được một tầm nhìn và nỗ lực tương xứng để xác lập một « kiến trúc an ninh » mới, cho phép duy trì một nền hòa bình bền vững.Đọc thêmNửa thế kỷ ''Hiệp định Helsinki'': Chiến tranh Ukraina xóa sổ "Kiến trúc an ninh châu Âu"Kể từ khi chiến tranh bùng nổ, chính quyền Mỹ thuộc phe Dân chủ được coi là đứng cùng một chiến hào với châu Âu. Thế cân bằng mong manh của « kiến trúc an ninh » cũ còn tạm được duy trì với việc Mỹ tiếp tục vai trò bảo trợ về an ninh cho châu Âu, như từ hơn 70 năm nay.Ngược lại, việc ông Trump trở lại nắm quyền đang dẫn đến những đảo lộn khó lường. Mùa hè năm ngoái, trong một bài phân tích trên Foreign Policy, nhà nghiên cứu về chính trị quốc tế Hal Brands, trường Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (Mỹ), nêu ra ba kịch bản với châu Âu, nếu Donald Trump trở lại. Theo kịch bản lạc quan, Liên Âu vẫn tiếp tục tồn tại và được củng cố. Kịch bản thứ hai là Liên Âu « suy yếu và chia rẽ ». Tuy nhiên đây chưa phải kịch bản tệ nhất. Kịch bản kinh hoàng nhất với Liên Âu, theo Hal Brands, là Hoa Kỳ « rút » các bảo đảm an ninh với châu Âu, các thế lực dân tộc chủ nghĩa trỗi dậy khắp các nước châu Âu, can thiệp Nga vào nội bộ châu Âu trở nên dễ dàng hơn gấp bội. Nhà nghiên cứu Mỹ Hal Brands cảnh báo đây hoàn toàn không phải là một tương lai xa vời, bởi lịch sử đã cho thấy lục địa châu Âu vốn dẫn đầu thế giới, về kinh tế và nhiều mặt khác trong hàng thế kỷ, cũng là nơi đã diễn ra không ít lần xung đột huynh đệ tương tàn, và là đầu mối của hai cuộc Đại chiến thế giới.Nhà nghiên cứu Giuseppe Spatafora, Viện Nghiên cứu An ninh Liên Hiệp Châu Âu (The European Union Institute for Security Studies - EUISS), trụ sở tại Paris, trong bài « The Trump card: What could US abandonment of Europe look like? » (tạm dịch là ‘‘Lá bài của Trump: Nước Mỹ có thể từ bỏ châu Âu như thế nào ?'') (đăng tải ngày 17/02/2025) cũng kêu gọi chú ý đến kịch bản tồi tệ nhất là chính quyền Trump sử dụng lá bài bảo trợ an ninh để bắt chẹt châu Âu và chia rẽ châu Âu. Chuyên gia Viện Nghiên cứu An ninh Liên Hiệp Châu Âu nhấn mạnh, việc chính quyền Trump bỏ rơi châu Âu « là thách thức sống còn đối với an ninh châu Âu ».Mỹ - Nga hữu hảo, Washington rút hỗ trợ quân sự: Châu Âu phải đối mặt với kịch bản đen tối nhất Cuộc điện đàm Trump – Putin lần thứ hai kể từ khi Trump trở lại Nhà Trắng tiếp tục gây thêm nhiều lo ngại với châu Âu. Trang mạng song ngữ Pháp – Hà Lan Trends-Tendances, tuần báo kinh tế chủ chốt ở Bỉ, có bài « Ukraina và Liên Âu lo ngại việc Trump – Putin ‘‘bình thường hóa'', ngừng bắn chỉ liên quan đến năng lượng và cơ sở hạ tầng ». Trends-Tendances nói rõ : « châu Âu phải chuẩn bị đối phó với đe dọa gia tăng từ Nga, với sự đồng thuận của Trump ».Tuần báo kinh tế Bỉ chú ý đến việc trong lúc tổng thư ký khối NATO Mark Rutte và thủ tướng Ý Giorgia Meloni, được coi là lãnh đạo châu Âu thân Trump nhất, bày tỏ niềm tin vào quyết tâm của chính quyền Trump tìm giải pháp hòa bình cho Ukraina, chủ tịch Ủy Ban Châu Âu Ursula von der Leyen khẳng định châu Âu cần nỗ lực vượt bậc để đến năm 2030 có được một lực lượng quốc phòng « có đủ khả năng răn đe ». Phát biểu của chủ tịch Ủy Ban Châu Âu được đưa ra tại Học viện Quân sự Hoàng gia của Đan Mạch, một trong những quốc gia châu Âu hỗ trợ quân sự sớm nhất và mạnh nhất cho Ukraina, tính theo GDP.Chuyên gia Nicolas Tenzer lưu ý đến áp lực buộc châu Âu phải nỗ lực gấp bội về quốc phòng và không được để Mỹ, Nga đàm phán trên lưng Ukraina:« Châu Âu có các phương tiện, và chúng ta phải làm nhiều hơn, hơn rất nhiều. Chúng ta bắt buộc phải chuyển sang nền kinh tế thời chiến. Chúng ta phải đầu tư nhiều hơn cho quốc phòng. Mục tiêu chi cho quốc phòng từ 3% đến 4% GDP cần phải đạt được trong thời gian sớm nhất. Đây là một nỗ lực đáng kể. Nhưng chúng ta cần hiểu rằng Ukraina sẽ tiếp tục bị tấn công, cho dù có chấp nhận việc Nga kiểm soát các vùng lãnh thổ hiện tại. Thời gian hưu chiến sẽ cho phép quân đội Nga tái vũ trang. Tiếp theo đó, theo các tin tức tình báo từ nhiều nước phương Tây, châu Âu sẽ nằm trong mục tiêu tấn công tương lai của Nga. Trump tuyên bố muốn sớm chấm dứt chiến tranh tại Ukraina, nhưng trên thực tế ông đã chuẩn bị cho một cuộc chiến tranh mới. Nếu có một thỏa thuận gọi là ‘‘hòa bình'' trong hiện tại, thì trên thực tế đây sẽ chỉ là một khoảng lặng trước khi chiến tranh bùng nổ trở lại trong hai, ba năm tới. Đây là điều rất nguy hiểm, châu Âu rất lo ngại. Nước Nga có thể tận dụng khoảng thời gian này để hồi sức, sau một thời gian kinh tế Nga, quân đội Nga gánh chịu các hậu quả nặng nề do chiến tranh. Chính vì vậy, thách thức đối với châu Âu là phải nỗ lực gấp bội về quốc phòng, và đặc biệt là không thể chấp nhận một thỏa thuận gọi là hòa bình cho Ukraina mà không mang lại một nền hòa bình thực sự. Người dân Ukraina hiển nhiên là mong muốn chiến tranh kết thúc, kết thúc các hành động gây hấn của Nga từ 11 năm nay, và cuộc xâm lăng toàn diện từ 3 năm nay. Vấn đề là, như một cựu dân biểu Ukraina nói, nếu chúng tôi tiếp tục chiến đấu, chúng tôi sẽ mất thêm hàng nghìn người. Nhưng nếu chúng tôi ngừng chiến đấu, sẽ có hàng triệu người chết. Tôi cho rằng tình hình có thể tóm tắt như vậy. Người dân Ukraina muốn hòa bình, nhưng họ không muốn hòa bình đi kèm với việc đất nước tiêu vong. Tổng thống Ukraina Zelensky nói : Ukraina có thể biến mất. Đây là một viễn cảnh hiện thực, nếu Ukraina ngừng chiến đấu. »Sự lựa chọn của châu ÂuTheo nhiều nhà quan sát, nỗ lực nối lại quan hệ với Nga mới là ưu tiên của chính quyền Trump, còn việc tìm ra một giải pháp hòa bình bền vững cho Ukraina và châu Âu dường như là điều thứ yếu. Viễn cảnh Mỹ - từng là đồng minh số một và thế lực bảo trợ cho an ninh châu Âu - một mặt tái lập quan hệ với Matxcơva, mặt khác từ chối đóng góp vào việc bảo đảm an ninh cho Ukraina, và thậm chí để lửng vấn đề bảo đảm an ninh cho toàn khối, đang đặt Liên Âu và Ukraina trước đe dọa tồn vong.Đọc thêmChiến tranh Ukraina: Tổng tham mưu trưởng 30 nước họp tại Anh QuốcViệc nước Mỹ của Donald Trump và nước Nga Putin hợp tác trên lưng Ukraina, và thậm chí trên lưng châu Âu là điều mà nhiều nước châu Âu liên tục cảnh báo. Thách thức trước mắt là châu Âu sẽ có chính sách chung như thế nào về cuộc chiến Ukraina ? Hậu thuẫn đến cùng để Ukraina có thể trụ vững trước Nga, và như vậy tăng cường khả năng bảo vệ an ninh của toàn khối hay tiếp tục vừa làm, vừa chờ đợi, nghe ngóng những tín hiệu tiền hậu bất nhất từ phía Washington ? Châu Âu sẽ chọn nền hòa bình nào : Hòa bình bền vững và chủ động có thể đạt được với việc tăng cường nội lực, và khả năng răn đe, hay một nền « hòa bình » đầy bất trắc, dựa trên các thỏa thuận song phương Mỹ - Nga ? Nhiều tín hiệu cho thấy, trong bối cảnh khó khăn chồng chất, các nước châu Âu dường như đã chọn hướng đi đầu tiên.

We often think of the modern era as the age of American power. In reality, we're living in a long, violent Eurasian century. Eurasia is a strategic prize without equal—which is why the world has been roiled, reshaped and nearly destroyed by clashes over the supercontinent.To discuss the fight for Eurasia in 2025 and beyond, and how to compete with China, Russia, and Iran, Will is joined by one of the world's most respected foreign affairs experts, Hal Brands. Hal is the author of the new book, 'The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World.'Follow Will Kingston and Fire at Will on social media here.Read The Spectator Australia here.

Listen to this week's No Spin News interviews with Kyle Brosnan, Hal Brands, Ph.D., and Mike Pompeo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tonight's rundown:  Hey BillOReilly.com Premium and Concierge Members, welcome to the No Spin News for Tuesday, March 11, 2025. Stand Up for Your Country.  Talking Points Memo: Bill breaks down Donald Trump's trade war, explaining how tariffs work and the strategy behind them. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announces that Ukraine is willing to accept a ceasefire deal with Russia. Author Hal Brands, Ph.D., joins the No Spin News to discuss the Ukraine-Russia crisis, share his views on what Trump should or shouldn't be doing, and emphasize the importance of U.S. global engagement. Why is Michelle Obama launching a new podcast? Bill gives a list of the seven most overrated tourist attractions in the United States. Final Thought: Accepting what is beyond your control. In Case You Missed It: Read Bill's latest column, Party Animals Stand out from the crowd with our NEW Not Woke baseball cap for just $28.95! For a limited time, get Bill O'Reilly's bestselling The United States of Trump and a No Spin Mug for only $39.95. Get Bill's latest book, CONFRONTING THE PRESIDENTS, out NOW! Now's the time to get a Premium or Concierge Membership to BillOReilly.com, the only place for honest news analysis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Eliot and Eric welcome Michael Beckley, Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University, non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and author of Unrivalled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower, and co-author, with Hal Brands of Danger Zone. They discuss his article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, "The Strange Triumph of a Broken America." They discuss the paradox of American power: Americans always think their country is in decline even when it is going from strength to strength economically and remains the most powerful and dynamic economy in the world. Michael recounts the many metrics that show that the American economy has vastly outstripped not only its autocratic rivals but its allies and the countries of the global south. They discuss the historical tradition of declinism in America and why it finds a ready audience. They also discuss America's great strengths --its geographical position, its relatively healthy demographics and its decentralized political institutions which have allowed the country to be a resilient source of innovation and dynamic economic growth. They also touch on how these strengths have also been, in a sense, liabilities. How they can lead to domestic political and social fragmentation as well as chronic strategic insolvency. They consider the danger of declining powers and how Russia and China fit into that framework, as well as relative versus absolute decline, what social psychology tells us about the propensity for risk taking when it comes to either holding onto what one currently has as opposed to seeking speculative gains as well as the degree of damage that the Trump Administration can do to the nation's traditional comparative advantages. Michael Beckley's Latest in Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/strange-triumph-broken-america-michael-beckley Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower: https://a.co/d/5bpnkN5 Understanding America's Contested Primacy: https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/2010.10.21-Understanding-Americas-Contested-Supremacy.pdf Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia

This week, Anthony talks with Hal Brands, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, about his book 'The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World.' They discuss the historical significance of Eurasia, the dynamics of US-Russia-China relations, and the challenges facing global leaders today. Hal emphasizes the strategic importance of Eurasia in global affairs and the need for the US to engage effectively in this region to maintain stability and counteract the influence of autocratic powers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson talks with Jeremy Kinsman and John Negroponte about the disastrous meeting between Zelensky, Trump, and Vance, and implications for the war in Ukraine. // Participants' bios - Jeremy Kinsman is a former Canadian diplomat who served as our Political Director and as High Commissioner to the United Kingdom and as our Ambassador to Russia, the European Union and Italy amongst other assignments - John Negroponte is Vice Chairman at McLarty Associates. He served for more than five decades as a U.S. diplomat, including as ambassador to Honduras, Mexico, the Philippines, the United Nations, and Iraq. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // // Reading Recommendations: - "The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the C.I.A., and the Origins of America's Invasion of Iraq" by Steve Coll: https://www.amazon.ca/Achilles-Trap-C-I-Americas-Invasion/dp/0525562265 - "Demon Copperhead: A Novel", by Barbara Kingsolver: https://www.amazon.ca/Demon-Copperhead-Novel-Barbara-Kingsolver/dp/0063251922 - "The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World", by Hal Brands: https://www.amazon.ca/Eurasian-Century-Making-Modern-World/dp/132403694X // Recording Date: February 28, 2025

Has the U.S. flipped sides in the great strategic contest of the last century? With his secretary of state calling for a new "partnership" with Russia, his vice president decrying Western Europe's political condition and the president himself seemingly blaming Ukraine for the war that started on its territory three years ago, Donald Trump seems to be executing one of the most dramatic shifts in American foreign policy. Is this the end of the transatlantic alliance and what might it mean for America's larger strategic goals? On this episode of Free Expression, international relations scholar Hal Brands and author of a new book. "The Eurasian Century", tells Gerry Baker how a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine was always going to be a goal for the United States no matter who won the 2024 election, how Trump may be trying to prise Russia away from China and why the U.S. still needs NATO and European allies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We often think of the modern era as the age of American power. In reality, we're living in a long, violent Eurasian century. That giant, resource-rich landmass possesses the bulk of the global population, industrial might, and potential military power; it touches all four of the great oceans. Eurasia is a strategic prize without equal―which is why the world has been roiled, reshaped, and nearly destroyed by clashes over the supercontinent. Since the early twentieth century, autocratic powers―from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II to the Soviet Union―have aspired for dominance by seizing commanding positions in the world's strategic heartland. Offshore sea powers, namely the United Kingdom and America, have sought to make the world safe for democracy by keeping Eurasia in balance. America's rivalries with China, Russia, and Iran are the next round in this geopolitical game. If this new authoritarian axis succeeds in enacting a radically revised international order, America and other democracies will be vulnerable and insecure. In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (W. W. Norton & Company, 2025) Hal Brands, a renowned expert on global affairs, argues that a better understanding of Eurasia's strategic geography can illuminate the contours of rivalry and conflict in today's world. The Eurasian Century explains how revolutions in technology and warfare, and the rise of toxic ideologies of conquest, made Eurasia the center of twentieth-century geopolitics―with pressing implications for the struggles that will define the twenty-first. Hal Brands, coauthor of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland. Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar whose research areas are related to Civilizational Sciences, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, military history, War studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, as well as Russian and East European history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

We often think of the modern era as the age of American power. In reality, we're living in a long, violent Eurasian century. That giant, resource-rich landmass possesses the bulk of the global population, industrial might, and potential military power; it touches all four of the great oceans. Eurasia is a strategic prize without equal―which is why the world has been roiled, reshaped, and nearly destroyed by clashes over the supercontinent. Since the early twentieth century, autocratic powers―from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II to the Soviet Union―have aspired for dominance by seizing commanding positions in the world's strategic heartland. Offshore sea powers, namely the United Kingdom and America, have sought to make the world safe for democracy by keeping Eurasia in balance. America's rivalries with China, Russia, and Iran are the next round in this geopolitical game. If this new authoritarian axis succeeds in enacting a radically revised international order, America and other democracies will be vulnerable and insecure. In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (W. W. Norton & Company, 2025) Hal Brands, a renowned expert on global affairs, argues that a better understanding of Eurasia's strategic geography can illuminate the contours of rivalry and conflict in today's world. The Eurasian Century explains how revolutions in technology and warfare, and the rise of toxic ideologies of conquest, made Eurasia the center of twentieth-century geopolitics―with pressing implications for the struggles that will define the twenty-first. Hal Brands, coauthor of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland. Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar whose research areas are related to Civilizational Sciences, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, military history, War studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, as well as Russian and East European history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/history

We often think of the modern era as the age of American power. In reality, we're living in a long, violent Eurasian century. That giant, resource-rich landmass possesses the bulk of the global population, industrial might, and potential military power; it touches all four of the great oceans. Eurasia is a strategic prize without equal―which is why the world has been roiled, reshaped, and nearly destroyed by clashes over the supercontinent. Since the early twentieth century, autocratic powers―from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II to the Soviet Union―have aspired for dominance by seizing commanding positions in the world's strategic heartland. Offshore sea powers, namely the United Kingdom and America, have sought to make the world safe for democracy by keeping Eurasia in balance. America's rivalries with China, Russia, and Iran are the next round in this geopolitical game. If this new authoritarian axis succeeds in enacting a radically revised international order, America and other democracies will be vulnerable and insecure. In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (W. W. Norton & Company, 2025) Hal Brands, a renowned expert on global affairs, argues that a better understanding of Eurasia's strategic geography can illuminate the contours of rivalry and conflict in today's world. The Eurasian Century explains how revolutions in technology and warfare, and the rise of toxic ideologies of conquest, made Eurasia the center of twentieth-century geopolitics―with pressing implications for the struggles that will define the twenty-first. Hal Brands, coauthor of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland. Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar whose research areas are related to Civilizational Sciences, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, military history, War studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, as well as Russian and East European history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/military-history

We often think of the modern era as the age of American power. In reality, we're living in a long, violent Eurasian century. That giant, resource-rich landmass possesses the bulk of the global population, industrial might, and potential military power; it touches all four of the great oceans. Eurasia is a strategic prize without equal―which is why the world has been roiled, reshaped, and nearly destroyed by clashes over the supercontinent. Since the early twentieth century, autocratic powers―from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II to the Soviet Union―have aspired for dominance by seizing commanding positions in the world's strategic heartland. Offshore sea powers, namely the United Kingdom and America, have sought to make the world safe for democracy by keeping Eurasia in balance. America's rivalries with China, Russia, and Iran are the next round in this geopolitical game. If this new authoritarian axis succeeds in enacting a radically revised international order, America and other democracies will be vulnerable and insecure. In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (W. W. Norton & Company, 2025) Hal Brands, a renowned expert on global affairs, argues that a better understanding of Eurasia's strategic geography can illuminate the contours of rivalry and conflict in today's world. The Eurasian Century explains how revolutions in technology and warfare, and the rise of toxic ideologies of conquest, made Eurasia the center of twentieth-century geopolitics―with pressing implications for the struggles that will define the twenty-first. Hal Brands, coauthor of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland. Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar whose research areas are related to Civilizational Sciences, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, military history, War studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, as well as Russian and East European history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/world-affairs

➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com This is a conversation with Hal Brands, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and one of the most influential and respected thinkers on U.S. foreign policy and global power dynamics of today. In this conversation, we talk about the return of geopolitics. About why are ideas about geopolitics that dominated the world a hundred years ago and that were at the beginning of all the great wars of the 20th century now making a comeback. And threaten to start other great wars in our time and define the 21st century as well. And whether and how, can it be prevented. 

We often think of the modern era as the age of American power. In reality, we're living in a long, violent Eurasian century. That giant, resource-rich landmass possesses the bulk of the global population, industrial might, and potential military power; it touches all four of the great oceans. Eurasia is a strategic prize without equal―which is why the world has been roiled, reshaped, and nearly destroyed by clashes over the supercontinent. Since the early twentieth century, autocratic powers―from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II to the Soviet Union―have aspired for dominance by seizing commanding positions in the world's strategic heartland. Offshore sea powers, namely the United Kingdom and America, have sought to make the world safe for democracy by keeping Eurasia in balance. America's rivalries with China, Russia, and Iran are the next round in this geopolitical game. If this new authoritarian axis succeeds in enacting a radically revised international order, America and other democracies will be vulnerable and insecure. In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (W. W. Norton & Company, 2025) Hal Brands, a renowned expert on global affairs, argues that a better understanding of Eurasia's strategic geography can illuminate the contours of rivalry and conflict in today's world. The Eurasian Century explains how revolutions in technology and warfare, and the rise of toxic ideologies of conquest, made Eurasia the center of twentieth-century geopolitics―with pressing implications for the struggles that will define the twenty-first. Hal Brands, coauthor of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland. Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar whose research areas are related to Civilizational Sciences, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, military history, War studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, as well as Russian and East European history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/russian-studies

We often think of the modern era as the age of American power. In reality, we're living in a long, violent Eurasian century. That giant, resource-rich landmass possesses the bulk of the global population, industrial might, and potential military power; it touches all four of the great oceans. Eurasia is a strategic prize without equal―which is why the world has been roiled, reshaped, and nearly destroyed by clashes over the supercontinent. Since the early twentieth century, autocratic powers―from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II to the Soviet Union―have aspired for dominance by seizing commanding positions in the world's strategic heartland. Offshore sea powers, namely the United Kingdom and America, have sought to make the world safe for democracy by keeping Eurasia in balance. America's rivalries with China, Russia, and Iran are the next round in this geopolitical game. If this new authoritarian axis succeeds in enacting a radically revised international order, America and other democracies will be vulnerable and insecure. In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (W. W. Norton & Company, 2025) Hal Brands, a renowned expert on global affairs, argues that a better understanding of Eurasia's strategic geography can illuminate the contours of rivalry and conflict in today's world. The Eurasian Century explains how revolutions in technology and warfare, and the rise of toxic ideologies of conquest, made Eurasia the center of twentieth-century geopolitics―with pressing implications for the struggles that will define the twenty-first. Hal Brands, coauthor of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland. Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar whose research areas are related to Civilizational Sciences, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, military history, War studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, as well as Russian and East European history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/geography

We often think of the modern era as the age of American power. In reality, we're living in a long, violent Eurasian century. That giant, resource-rich landmass possesses the bulk of the global population, industrial might, and potential military power; it touches all four of the great oceans. Eurasia is a strategic prize without equal―which is why the world has been roiled, reshaped, and nearly destroyed by clashes over the supercontinent. Since the early twentieth century, autocratic powers―from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II to the Soviet Union―have aspired for dominance by seizing commanding positions in the world's strategic heartland. Offshore sea powers, namely the United Kingdom and America, have sought to make the world safe for democracy by keeping Eurasia in balance. America's rivalries with China, Russia, and Iran are the next round in this geopolitical game. If this new authoritarian axis succeeds in enacting a radically revised international order, America and other democracies will be vulnerable and insecure. In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (W. W. Norton & Company, 2025) Hal Brands, a renowned expert on global affairs, argues that a better understanding of Eurasia's strategic geography can illuminate the contours of rivalry and conflict in today's world. The Eurasian Century explains how revolutions in technology and warfare, and the rise of toxic ideologies of conquest, made Eurasia the center of twentieth-century geopolitics―with pressing implications for the struggles that will define the twenty-first. Hal Brands, coauthor of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland. Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar whose research areas are related to Civilizational Sciences, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, military history, War studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, as well as Russian and East European history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and author of The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World, joins the show to discuss the continued relevance of geopolitics. ▪️ Times      •      01:29 Introduction     •      01:54 Twentieth century     •     03:29 Advent of geopolitical theory     •      07:08 Land versus sea      •      13:09 Authoritarianism        •      17:40 Struggle for power     •      20:30 Burdens of defense      •      23:25 Eurasia        •      27:50 Different politics     •      36:09 “…a kind of American realism”  Follow along on Instagram or YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find a transcript of today's episode on our School of War Substack

Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger distinguished professor of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and author of The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how and why control of Eurasia affects U.S. national security. This episode is the fifth in a continuing TPI series on U.S. grand strategy.   Mentioned on the Episode   Hal Brands, The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World   H. J. Mackinder, “The Geographical Pivot of History,” The Geographical Journal   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President's Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/eurasia-challenge-hal-brands

Dr. Hal Brands joins Jonah to discuss the future of global alliance blocs, China and Russia's material interests, and how to cut a nuclear deal with Iran. Stay tuned for a reality check on the Greenland acquisition plan. Brands is a professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, a senior fellow at AEI, and most recently author of The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern Century. Show Notes: —Purchase Brand's book, The Eurasian Century, here —Brand's AEI Page The Remnant is a production of The Dispatch, a digital media company covering politics, policy, and culture from a non-partisan, conservative perspective. To access all of The Dispatch's offerings—including Jonah's G-File newsletter, weekly livestreams, and other members-only content—click here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss the implications of the 'America First' policy, contrasting views from Keith Payne and Hal Brands, and the importance of national identity and sovereignty in U.S. governance.

With Eliot traveling, Eric welcomes back prolific historian and author Hal Brands to the show to discuss his forthcoming book The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2025) which will be published in mid-January. They discuss the ideas and careers of geopolitical thinkers Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, and Nicholas Spykman whose views about the influence of geography on international affairs became enormously influential among political leaders of all stripes in the early to mid-Twentieth Century. They touch on the costs of deterrence versus the much higher costs of great power wars, the breakdown of the international trading system in the 1930s and how it presaged military conflict, why regional crises in the interwar period rapidly metastasized into the most costly global conflict in history and how our contemporary world resembles the world of 1940-1941. They also discuss the rise of China and the bipartisan consensus it has spawned on diagnosing our current international environment but has not yet led to a bipartisan execution of policies to remedy the situation. They also discuss the rise of geopolitical super predators in the 1930s, the evolution of "Fortress Eurasia" -- the emerging alliance among the PRC, Russia, Iran and North Korea, Senator Mitch McConnell's recent Foreign Affairs article arguing against retrenchment, and why it is hard to imagine a future conflict not becoming a global conflict today. Shield of the Republic will be taking a break for the holidays and will return in early January. The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World: https://a.co/d/2XQ7lWa The Price of American Retreat: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/price-american-retreat-trump-mitch-mcconnell Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Few books have influenced me as much as the Makers of Modern Strategy series. The three volumes (published in 1942, 1986, and 2023) are indispensable to understanding statecraft, leadership, and the evolution of warfare across millennia. The New Makers of Modern Strategy (2023) is a thousand pages long and analyzes strategy from ancient Greece to the Congo. The man behind this behemoth collection is Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a returning ChinaTalk guest. In our conversation, we discuss: The process for compiling such an ambitious collection of essays; Unique insights and new topics covered in the 2023 edition, including Tecumseh, Kabila in the Congo, and Strategies of Equilibrium in 17th Century France; Advice for reading the book effectively; Revolutions in military affairs, from the atom bomb to quantum computers. For reference, you can compare the content of the three volumes with this spreadsheet, courtesy of Nicholas Welch. Outtro music: When This Cruel War is Over (Civil War ballad by Hermes Nye) https://open.spotify.com/track/1Zjcz6B4PromuFFXMWu8hK?si=500b718d8361421b Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Few books have influenced me as much as the Makers of Modern Strategy series. The three volumes (published in 1942, 1986, and 2023) are indispensable to understanding statecraft, leadership, and the evolution of warfare across millennia. The New Makers of Modern Strategy (2023) is a thousand pages long and analyzes strategy from ancient Greece to the Congo. The man behind this behemoth collection is Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a returning ChinaTalk guest. In our conversation, we discuss: The process for compiling such an ambitious collection of essays; Unique insights and new topics covered in the 2023 edition, including Tecumseh, Kabila in the Congo, and Strategies of Equilibrium in 17th Century France; Advice for reading the book effectively; Revolutions in military affairs, from the atom bomb to quantum computers. For reference, you can compare the content of the three volumes with this spreadsheet, courtesy of Nicholas Welch. Outtro music: When This Cruel War is Over (Civil War ballad by Hermes Nye) https://open.spotify.com/track/1Zjcz6B4PromuFFXMWu8hK?si=500b718d8361421b Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hal Brands joins Robert to talk about the foreign policy challenges around the world facing the United States. They discuss the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, the future of the war in Ukraine, and the looming threat from China. Hal is a senior fellow at AEI where he studies US foreign policy and defense […]

Hal Brands joins Robert to talk about the foreign policy challenges around the world facing the United States. They discuss the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, the future of the war in Ukraine, and the looming threat from China. Hal is a senior fellow at AEI where he studies US foreign policy and defense strategy. Read his latest pieces on Israel and Iran, China and Taiwan, and Ukraine.

Foreign policy analyst Dr. Hal Brands joined Rep. Crenshaw to discuss why America abandoned pre-WWII isolationism to become the global superpower and the unprecedented prosperity that came from it. They examine the growing threats posed by Russia and China to that prosperity and the international order. And they look at the potential consequences for America if it retreats again to an isolationist foreign policy. Dr. Hal Brands is a Senior Fellow at American Enterprise Institute and the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Dr. Brands has served as Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Strategic Planning and lead writer for the Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States. He is a member of the State Department's Foreign Affairs Policy Board and consults with a range of government offices and agencies in the intelligence and national security communities. Follow him on X at @HalBrands.

Rush Doshi, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow for Asia Studies and director of the China Strategy Initiative, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how America should navigate its geopolitical rivalry with China.    Mentioned on the Episode    Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?   Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China   Rush Doshi, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order   Rush Doshi, et al., “Debating the United States' China Strategy,” CFR.org   Rush Doshi, et al., “What Does America Want From China?,” Foreign Affairs   Aaron Friedberg, The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895-1905   Mike Gallagher and Matt Pottinger, “No Substitute for Victory: America's Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed,” Foreign Affairs   William Langley and Gloria Li, “Chinese Robot Maker Says Protectionism Will Not Stop Its March,” Financial Times   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President's Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/americas-china-strategy-rush-doshi 

Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss Hal Brands' article "An 'America First' World" published on ForeignAffairs.com. Dr. Brands assesses what a Second "America First" presidency might mean for foreign and defense policy. The guys debate interventionism versus non-interventionism, evaluating which approach is better and how deterrence might impact the policy.

Freedom, finance, and warfare—are these the pillars or pitfalls of America today? Join us on the Arterburn Radio Transmission as we dissect the foundational importance of freedom and its erosion under the weight of the military-industrial complex. We'll discuss our exclusive interview with David Knight on the manipulation of silver prices by financial giants like JP Morgan Chase, urging the need for greater financial literacy. From the soaring costs of defense projects like the F-35 program to the economic forces driving military actions, we scrutinize the dissonance between America's ideals and its practices.We also tackle the grim realities of war and empire, reflecting on the human and moral costs of military engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan. Drawing from personal experiences and Christian values, the discussion critiques the alarming casualness towards nuclear warfare and the economic motives lurking behind military strategies. We'll uncover the staggering sums spent on defense and the deceptive media narratives that obscure the real financial and human toll of continuous armed conflict.Turning to the political arena, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s complaint about his exclusion from a presidential debate serves as a lens to examine the systemic barriers facing non-establishment candidates. By revisiting the struggles of third-party candidates like Teddy Roosevelt and Ross Perot, we shed light on the undemocratic nature of modern political processes. Finally, we question the relevance of America's outdated post-1945 world order, contemplating a shift towards nationalism and more localized security interests, as discussed with scholars Francis P. Sempa and Hal Brands. Don't miss this thought-provoking episode that challenges conventional narratives and explores the urgent need for an America that truly lives up to its founding principles.

Ryan sat down with three friends to talk about the war in Ukraine through the lens of a new edited volume on the topic. Enjoy this conversation with Andrea Kendall-Taylor (former CIA), Hal Brands, and Alexander Bick (former National Security Council staff), which surfaces some important disagreements and debates about the war and international order. Oh, and also buy War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (https://www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-Conflict-Strategy-Fractured/dp/1421449846). Please note this was recorded shortly before the U.S. Congress passed the security supplemental, which included aid for Ukraine.

Eric welcomes friend of Shield of the Republic Hal Brands back to the show. Hal is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the editor of a new book, War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy and the Return of A Fractured World (Baltimore, MD:  Johns Hopkins University Press, 2024), a weekly columnist at Bloomberg.com and also has a recent article on the Foreign Affairs website. They discuss the origins of the new book and 6 overarching themes that emerged from the essays by the distinguished contributors to the volume. They also discuss why America's unique system of alliances may obscure for Americans the potential for disruption that tightening relations among authoritarian regimes presents to the global order and the rise and future of isolationism in the Republican party. https://muse.jhu.edu/book/122782/pdf https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/oa_edited_volume/chapter/3881912/pdf https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/new-autocratic-alliances Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Join the conversation with the acclaimed Hal Brands, historian and strategist, as we navigate through the labyrinth of geopolitical shifts that are forging new narratives in world affairs. Our engaging dialogue traverses the precipice of global economic uncertainty, sparked by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and the simmering tensions across the Middle East. Brands' expertise shines as he dissects the concept of mutually assured economic destruction, particularly spotlighting the precarious US-China relationship. By extrapolating insights from his book "Danger Zone," we also scrutinize the shadow of conflict that looms over these superpowers.Strap in as we dissect the emerging alliances that are redrawing the geopolitical map in Eurasia, where powers like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are crafting a new world order through strategic partnerships. The intricate web of military and economic exchanges is laid bare, revealing a burgeoning alliance system that stands to challenge the existing US-centric global structure. We pay close attention to the pivotal role of Western military assistance in Ukraine, weighing the global support against internal American sentiment and the surprising outcomes that have arisen since the conflict's inception.Finally, we cast an analytical eye on the American political landscape and the hurdles that face US aid to Ukraine. The intricacies of Capitol Hill politics are dissected, revealing the complexities behind aid allocations and the unexpected beneficiaries within the US military-industrial complex. The delicate dance of global oil prices and their influence on domestic politics, coupled with the cautious stance of the US and EU on Russian energy sanctions, are examined through a geopolitical lens. Brands and I conclude by envisaging the potential foreign policy pivots in a future US administration, pondering the strategic moves that could reshape US-China relations and the broader global economic fabric.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

Michael talks with Hal Brands, who edited the new book "The New Makers of Modern Strategy: From the Anicent World to the Digitral Age." It focuses on how the theory and practice of war and statecraft have been shaped throughout the centuries. Hal is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. 

Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Hal is the author of the book entitled The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry Today. Get full access to What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein at www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/subscribe

Taiwan's recent election resulted in the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party retaining power, prompting China-watchers to wonder how Beijing might respond. Raja Krishnamoorthi, the ranking Democrat on the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, shares his insights with host Ravi Agrawal. Suggested reading: Hal Brands and Michael Beckley: China Is a Declining Power–and That's the Problem James Palmer: Taiwan's New President Won't Placate China Howard W. French: The Reason China Can't Stop Its Decline The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party: Reset, Prevent, Build: A Strategy to Win America's Economic Competition with the Chinese Communist Party The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party: Ten for Taiwan: Policy Recommendations to Preserve Peace and Stability in the Taiwan Strait Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this incredibly unique episode, we embark on a journey into the rare insight and initiatives of the Eglin AFB Strategic Off-site. This episode serves as a beacon, illuminating the path to Excellence and providing a platform for like-minds dedicated to transformative leadership with a focus on our unique roles toward building a better world for all. We kick these powerful discussions off with the 96th Test Wing Commander, Brigadier General Jeffrey Geraghty (3:25) then into a talk with Jennifer Pahlka (26:54), author of Recoding America: Why Government is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better. Finally we wrap things up with a powerful insight by Dr Hal Brands (39:05) co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. General Geraghty, through personal stories, unveils the human side of leadership, showcasing vulnerability's profound influence. The narrative extends beyond professional realms, highlighting the transformative impact of supportive leadership on individuals' lives. We navigate the terrain of Leadership, Personal Growth, and Air Force Culture. A compelling narrative emerges, illustrating a leader's pivotal role in aiding a subordinate to overcome addiction—a testament to the Air Force's commitment to personal growth. The Strategic Off-site Event surfaces as a catalyst for organizational success, unveiling its pivotal role in realizing team goals for 2024. The goal of the Strategic Off-Site is explained in-depth and a sense of urgency permeates the discussion as the looming threat posed by near peer adversaries demands immediate attention and strategic action. General Geraghty reflects on the essence of "informed, connected, and empowered" leadership. The discussion underscores the critical importance of connection and empowerment in effective leadership. Stressing the collaborative ethos, the spotlight shines on empowering Non-Commissioned Officers (NCOs) and expressing gratitude to airmen. Our expedition continues with Jennifer Pahlka, emphasizing the support for public good initiatives and national security. The exploration extends into empowering Civil Servants in the Policymaking Process, where tech-driven transformations in child welfare underscore the transformative role of technology. Advocacy for Changing Oversight and Rewarding Risk-Taking guides our next steps as we navigate the landscape of empowering Public Servants. Cultural shifts are explored, emphasizing the crucial role of supporting colleagues in making riskier decisions. The episode culminates in a gaze toward China's Geopolitical Ambitions and Their Implications. The emphasis on collective action echoes the need for international collaboration. Concerns about China's dominance in supply chains are coupled with support for measures like the CHIPS and Science Act—a concrete call to action. As we shift our focus to PRC's Global Influence and US Military Preparedness, concerns about TikTok's Data Collection raise awareness. Acknowledgment of the vital work of US military personnel underlines the need for vigilance. In this comprehensive exploration, we traverse the diverse landscapes of leadership, personal narratives, strategic planning, and geopolitical challenges. The narrative woven is one of resilience, innovation, and collective responsibility—a testament to the dynamic world of empowered leadership and the types of powerful discussions that occur at a Wing's Strategic Off-Site. (HeroFront is privately owned. The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense or USAF visual information does not imply or constitute DOD endorsement.)

Ireland's export data weakens again. It's beginning to look like a trend. And maybe the world economy is weaker than we thought.The Health Service needs more money. How many countries can say that? It's as true in Ireland as elsewhere. But the suspicion grows that you could give the HSE any amount of money and it would still have a budget hole of €2 billion at the end of the year. Any year. Somebody needs to find teh cure for fiscal incontinence.The world looks ever more dangerous by the day. Plenty of gloomy analyses are appearing that look back on Russia's invasion of Ukraine as the start of something akin to the events that began with assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in June 1914. At the very least, lots of seemingly disparate events are observed and then linked in ways that make for alarmist headlines. The war in Ukraine, Iran's threatened war against Israel, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia might be about to invade Kosovo, the US placing two carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean and Chinese threats against Taiwan: all of these things are, for some observers, beginning to look like a pattern. The thread - if there is one - that links most or all of these conflicts, actual or threatened, is growing American dysfunction and, in particular, isolationism of the US. One interpretation of post WW2 history is that the world went through an unusually peaceful period mostly because of ‘Pax Americana': the US as the global policeman. Commentators such as Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins, prominent blogger (‘Substacker' to be precise) Noah Smith and historian Niall Ferguson have all penned dark and pessimistic pieces focussing on different aspects of the threats facing the world. All agree that those threats have not been as great for a very long time. Mostly because ‘Pax Americana' is over.History does teach us that what happens next is unlikely to have been predicted by anybody. But the more apocalyptic analysts see two obvious threats. First, the Israeli armed forces are overwhelmed fighting a three front war in Gaza, the West Bank and along the Lebanese border. Somewhere - perhaps everywhere - in that fight will be Iran. If the US gets involved, so, perhaps, will Iran's new ally, Russia. As an intermediate possible step, Qatar could disrupt global supplies of natural gas in the same way OPEC did to oil in the 1970s - that would make last year's spike in energy prices look like a small-scale rehearsal. The other big foreseeable threat is Taiwan. China has said, explicitly, that it will take back the Island. If it intends to do so over the next decade or so, now would seem to be the most opportune time. ‘Joining the dots' is the favourite activity of the armchair analyst. The pictures that emerge from these exercises can be truly alarming. They could, of course, be completely wrong. But a lot of people are drawing very similar pictures. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ever since Vladimir Putin sent Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine in early 2022, assumptions about the possibility of war in the 21st Century have been turned on their heads. A long absence of conflict in Europe gave way to a bloody and sustained ground war. Russia has even warned it might unleash nuclear missiles. China, rattling its own saber in Asia, looms large in the background – just as it did in the ‘50s, ‘60s, and ‘70s. Nukes are the new normal. Hal Brands is a foreign policy professor at Johns Hopkins University, co-author of "Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China," a member of the State Department's Foreign Affairs Policy Board, and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The most dangerous states in the international system aren't necessarily revisionist powers that think that their trajectory points continually upward. It's those countries that have been growing, rising for a long time, and then fear that they are peaking and are about to decline. Those are the countries that are inclined to take the biggest risks to try to improve their position in the the here and now before things get worse for them in the future.Hal BrandsAccess Bonus Episodes on PatreonMake a one-time Donation to Democracy Paradox.A full transcript is available at www.democracyparadox.com.Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is the coauthor (with Michael Beckley) of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China and the author of The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry Today.Key HighlightsIntroduction - 0:43Peaking Power Theory - 3:12The Original Cold War - 22:28China as a Peaking Power - 31:14American Policy Toward China - 41:56Key LinksDanger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China by Hal Brands and Michael BeckleyThe Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry Today by Hal Brands"China's Threat to Global Democracy" in Journal of Democracy by Hal Brands and Michael BeckleyDemocracy Paradox PodcastJosh Chin on China's Surveillance StateElizabeth Economy in a Wide Ranging Conversation About ChinaMore Episodes from the PodcastMore InformationDemocracy GroupApes of the State created all MusicEmail the show at jkempf@democracyparadox.comFollow on Twitter @DemParadox, Facebook, Instagram @democracyparadoxpodcast100 Books on Democracy Support the show

With Eliot still on the road, Eric welcomes back Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and introduces Thomas Mahnken, the President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) to discuss The New Makers of Modern Strategy, published by Princeton University Press in May. They discuss the backstory of the Makers of Modern Strategy franchise, the purpose and themes of the current volume, arms races and arms control in peacetime competition between nations, the Anglo-German naval arms race before WWI, the US-Soviet arms race in the Cold War, the role of Andrew Marshall as both a strategist and patron of strategy and much more. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Eliot still on the road, Eric welcomes back Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and introduces Thomas Mahnken, the President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) to discuss The New Makers of Modern Strategy, published by Princeton University Press in May. They discuss the backstory of the Makers of Modern Strategy franchise, the purpose and themes of the current volume, arms races and arms control in peacetime competition between nations, the Anglo-German naval arms race before WWI, the US-Soviet arms race in the Cold War, the role of Andrew Marshall as both a strategist and patron of strategy and much more. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After a spate of episodes crammed with mercilessly rank punditry and self-indulgent eggheadery, it's time for the Remnant to get wonky once again. Jonah's guest today is AEI's Hal Brands, who's back to discuss all things foreign policy. With the Ukraine conflict raging, tensions continuing to mount between the U.S. and China, and debates about America's role in the world consuming the right, there's no shortage of topics up for grabs. Does the United States actually have a strategic vision anymore? What's the relationship between history and public policy? And will Chinese or American robots overthrow mankind first? Show Notes: - Hal's page at AEI - Hal's new book, The New Makers of Modern Strategy - Hal: “Biden Will Find That Breaking Up With China Is Hard to Do” - Hal: “How the American War Machine Ran Out of Gas” - Rank punditry and notes from Ukraine on Dispatch Live - Kevin Williamson: “The Burial of the Dead” - Orlando Figes' The Story of Russia - Jonathan Kirshner's An Unwritten Future Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this Best of episode of Intelligence Matters, host Michael Morell spoke with Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and author of the new book, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, about China's economic, political and demographic trajectory and the percolating risk of conflict with Beijing in the coming years. Brands explains why he believes China, rather than being on the rise, is peaking as a global power and as a result may engage in more destabilizing behavior. Brands and Morell explore how certain external tailwinds - which once propelled China's rise - have become headwinds, and may be driving President Xi Jinping's tightening grip on political power. They also discuss the effect of Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taipei, different scenarios and timelines for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, as well as how the conflict in Ukraine may - or may not - affect Xi's calculus. This episode was originally released in August 2022.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Remnant offers two guests in one today, as AEI scholars Hal Brands and Michael Beckley join the program to discuss their new book, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. With the United States and China running a “superpower marathon,” how can we expect the competition to resolve, and is there an appropriate historical analogy for China's current state? Furthermore, what foreign policy should we pursue toward China? Can China make a stable transition to democracy? And will Michael go down in Remnant history as the only guest to join from the back of an Uber? Show Notes:- Hal and Michael's new book, Danger Zone- Hal and Michael: “What Does China Want?”- Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson's Why Nations Fail- Hal: “The Dangers of China's Decline”

Subscribe to The Realignment on Supercast to support the show and access all of our bonus content: https://realignment.supercast.com/.REALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail us at: realignmentpod@gmail.comMichael Beckley, Tufts University professor and co-author (with Hal Brands) of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, joins The Realignment to discuss why he believes that China's power relative to the United States will peak in the 2020s, how that makes a catastrophic conflict more, rather than less, likely, and how the United States and its allies should navigate combustible challenges such as defending Taiwan.

What is the nature and timescale of U.S. geopolitical competition with China? Which country is stronger in the near term and long term? And what will the answers to these questions mean for Chinese military and political activities over the next 10 years?Matt Gluck sat down with Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Michael Beckley, an associate professor of political science at Tufts University, to discuss their new book, “Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China.” They discussed the authors' argument that China is structurally far weaker than people think, but that this weakness makes China more likely to act aggressively over the next several years. They also discussed the implications of this argument for U.S. policy and to what extent international initiatives that are already underway are responsive to this near-term threat.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.