Podcasts about climas southwest climate podcast

In the Mar 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into a recap of winter (so far) in the Southwest. First, recap winter to date, and put it in the context of a double-dip La Niña, including precipitation totals, temperature, and snowpack. Then they take a closer look at the phases of the PNA (Pacific/North American pattern) and how this links to ENSO/La Niña and the weather conditions this winter. Finally, they revisit temperature to consider just how "cold" it has actually been, and preview a closer look at fire outlooks, snowpack, and water supply in upcoming podcasts. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the January 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into the winter weather so far, tracking how this lines up with expectations in a La Niña year, and what to track this winter to look for La Nina effects - temperature, snow water equivalent, streamflow forecasts, etc.  They also take a closer look at the jetstream and the role this plays in winter weather in the Southwest, and where these recent events (and the monsoon) leave us in terms of drought.  They wrap with some discussion of the outlooks for the next month/season, as well as some obligatory pining for the monsoon. Discussed in this episode: The Climatology of Synoptic-Scale Ascent over Western North America: A Perspective on Storm Tracks (Loreau & Horel, 2012) https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00203.1

In the December/Holiday edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down for a quick look at the weather of the last month or so, some recent events bringing winter storms to the region, and what a La Nina might bring in the rest of 2021 and through the rest of winter 2022. They also reflect on 2021 and memorable events in the Southwest, and not surprisingly, this brings them both back to monsoon 2021. Thanks again to everyone who listens and supports the podcast, we hope everyone has a happy, restful, and safe holiday.   See you in 2022!

In this November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back to monsoon 2021 to do a recap of the seasonal totals.  They are joined by Paul Iniguez, the Science and Operations Officer for the National Weather Service office in Phoenix, to take a closer look at the 2021 monsoon, how it stacked up around the region, and to hear a bit more about how the NWS offices work across the monsoon. This is a single focus episode - see the Oct 2021 episode for the normal monthly roundup and recap. Watch this space: https://www.weather.gov/psr/eventsummaries for the 2021 monsoon recap from NWS Phoenix, as well as some detailed storm event reports from across the season (and year).

In the September Edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to revisit last month's discussion of a generational monsoon. They check in around the region to see how various locations are faring and discuss the interesting patterns they've seen in monsoon activity so far. They put the totals to date into climatological context and rankings, to see who is experiencing a generational monsoon, vs. areas that are "just" above average (or who are lagging behind).  They wrap with a discussion of "Is the Monsoon Over" - and talk about the reasons why you may/may not think so, and what the transition season means for the last few weeks of the monsoon (and the final seasonal rankings).

In the August 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the "monsoon that comes to you" (i.e. it's just about everywhere, and it just keeps coming!).  They discuss the (record) July for some areas, as well as the well above average conditions around much of the region. They also deconstruct the elements that are feeding into this persistent monsoon rainfall and take a deep dive into a few of the events that have contributed to impressive totals.  They wrap up with a discussion of outlooks for the rest of the season, whether any stations might hit record monsoon totals (Tucson is definitely in the running), and what this has meant for the monsoon fantasy game (suffice to say, the guesses for July did not anticipate the record wet conditions). Resources Discussed: https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html https://www.weather.gov/psr/StormReportfor2126July2021 https://monsoon.environment.arizona.edu/ https://rainlog.org/map https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home

In the (mid/late) July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido are back at it, given all that happened with the monsoon since early July.  First, they dive into monsoon conditions around the region, to put them into climatological perspective, while discussing some of the defining characteristics of the monsoon. Next they grapple with the question: Is this shaping up to be an all-timer for July, given all the rain that's already fallen (and what is in the forecast for the rest of July)?  The answer is complicated (tune in to hear where they land on this).  Finally, they look a bit at the forecasts and outlooks for the upcoming weeks and months and remind us about the monsoon fantasy game that we are running this monsoon. A reminder from the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game: We pose this question to you: will August be wet, dry, or in between at stations around the Southwest? So far, the monsoon has been wet in many places, with an active monsoon pattern over the next few days likely to add more to the totals. This is our final reminder: you will only be able to make your August forecasts up until 11:59 pm tomorrow night, Friday (Jul 23). We then lock the forecasts so that you can't use the 7-day weather forecast to inform your estimates.  Submit your August Guesses: https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home  

In the June/early-July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest.  They start with June heatwaves, and where these sit in comparison to climatology/normal for the Southwest, and how they differ from the record heat waves seen in the Pacific Northwest.  They transition to a discussion of the early(ish) onset of the monsoon this year, and whether this bodes well for a better monsoon than last year (frankly, this is a low bar to clear).  Finally, they recap their own (forecast) guesses for July and run through the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game we trying out this year. https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/ We plan to do another podcast in mid/late July to see where things stand with the monsoon, but so far, so good (or at least better than last year).

In the May 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a range of issues related to that most pressing question this time of year - "What's the Monsoon Forecast?!".  They run through the last month of weather, what we might expect from June given historical patterns and extremes, and how much faith we can put in forecasts this time of year (hint, it's tough to make a good monsoon forecast). The podcast wraps with a reminder about the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game. We piloted the game last year, and this year there's a new and improved interface and some fun prizes.  Stay tuned to the end of the podcast (or watch this space) for details on the game (how to play, prizes, etc.). 

In the April 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump into winter weather and assessments of (drought) conditions.  First, they look back at winter so far and see how it stacks up to recent historical totals. Next, they take a closer look at the relationship between summer and winter precipitation, and the various phase combinations (wet/dry, dry/wet, wet/wet, dry/dry). They turn to some paleoclimate expertise to help them think about these patterns, as well as how drought has been defined (seasonal drought, megadrought, etc.), and how these terms get used in science communication and the media.

In the Mar 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the winter in the Southwest, and whether it lived up to expectations for a La Niña winter. They also go over streamflow, snowpack, and start a deeper dive into reservoirs, based on a listener question from last month (send in your questions if you have them!). They dabble a bit in the seasonal forecasts and talk about some of the key things they will be watching over the next 3-4 months, namely how fire season evolves, and when we can (reasonably) start looking ahead towards monsoon onset. They wrap up with a brief preview of monsoon-game 2.0, and hint at what we have planned.

In the February 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump back into discussing winter conditions in the Southwest. This includes what happened so far in 2021 with a few runs of storms that affected parts of Arizona and New Mexico. This also includes the role that La Niña may be playing this winter (snowpack, streamflow forecasts, rain/snow events, etc.), and how this compares to previous winters and La Niña events. They also discuss what we might expect for the rest of the "wet" winter season (really, Feb-Mar) in the arid Southwest. 

In the Dec 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss drought, La Nina, and what to expect (or at least hope for) in 2021. First, they recap the event that swept through on Dec 9-11, to talk through how different locations in the region fared in terms of precip.  Next, they transition into the drought situation, which is currently looking pretty dire for the region - and discuss 'just how much worse can it get' - given much of the region is at Exceptional Drought (D4, the highest category on the US Drought Monitor), looking to some past events for comparison. They wrap things up with some 2021 predictions - things they think could (or hope might) happen in 2021.

In the November episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest, including what we might expect over the next few months.  They discuss La Niña and what this might mean for the Southwest, including implications of La Niña following a much drier than average monsoon and what the historical record says about just how unprecedented this pattern might be (dry monsoon, dry winter). Finally, they take a closer look at fire, and how the season has progressed in the Southwest, given the lack of rain, and what we might watch for going into next year's fire season.

In the October 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido open up with something fun - with a quick rundown of the Monsoon Game 2020, congratulating Mike (for his CLIMAS podcast team victory, with 33 points) and Aaryn O with his overall victory (56 points). Next, they look back on the monsoon, and try to make sense of some of the reasons that might have contributed to the widespread below average (or even record driest) conditions in the Southwest. They take a closer look at some of the mechanisms that might be in play and review a few papers that address the role of climate change in a changing monsoon. Finally, they look forward (begrudgingly) at winter 2020-2021, which is lining up to be either a moderate or strong La Niña, and the discuss the implications of forecasts for a drier than average winter stacking on top of a very dry monsoon.

In the September 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on this year's monsoon.  The monsoon is not over, but at this point it is clear it will come in on the dry side of things. They discuss some of the reasons why, and how this below average monsoon compares across the region and to other years. Zack also recounts some of our Slack/text conversations about the monsoon and maps them onto the 5 stages of grief framework. They also discuss tropical storm activity in the eastern Pacific and talk through the monsoon game for August. There is not much on the horizon for the rest of September, but we have been surprised before, so here's hoping!

In the August 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss "what is going on with monsoon 2020?!" This includes a review of different locations around the U.S. Southwest, where some locales are just barely hitting long-term averages, while others are running at record or near-record driest levels (so far). They also cover some of the factors driving these patterns, what we might expect in the 2nd half of the monsoon, and where this ranks in terms of the regional precipitation records (and unmet expectations). They wrap with a discussion of the monsoon game, which is fun despite the relatively dry conditions - especially for those that leaned on the dry side of their guesses in Arizona. The results for July are posted below, and congrats to Doug D on topping the July leaderboard. We also finally have some podcast gear (shirts and mugs).  You can order them at https://teespring.com/stores/the-southwest-climate-podcast. We set the prices at wholesale cost, so we don't make any money off sales, but if you are interested in showing your support - or enjoying the (lack of a) monsoon in style, this is one way to do so.  Mike's and Zack's orders both arrived, and they can vouch for the quality of the shirts and the printing.

In the July 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido update their discussion of the 2020 wildfire season, which is turning out to be quite active for Arizona (while New Mexico is relatively quiet). Next, they move on to monsoon 2020, focusing on what the outlooks and forecasts had to say about this year, how this slow start compares to previous years, and asking the question ‘does a late start matter?’ for the overall seasonal totals (hint: it’s complicated). They also include a discussion of “key numbers” for the monsoon and a discussion of some recent literature about the role of widespread precipitation events and regional monsoon precipitation totals. They are joined at the end by Ben McMahan to talk a bit about the monsoon guessing game - where they discuss the guesses they received for July and look forward to seeing even more people play for August and September - Details Below: Monsoon Game Details: Ben, Zack, and Mike developed a monsoon game that anyone can play. For each month, they are estimating monthly precipitation at five cities in the US Southwest (Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff, Albuquerque, and El Paso). To keep it simple, they are picking the decile they think is most likely for each station, and focusing on the core months of monsoon precipitation (July-Aug-Sept). Points are awarded each month (see the survey link for details), and they will tally up points over the monsoon and see who scores highest for each month, each location, and overall. They had around 35 players for July (see figures below), but you can still get your guesses in for August (and eventually September). Make your August guess at https://bit.ly/3h2ZInS We’ll publish results on the podcast page and in the SWCO each month, but be sure to tune in to the podcast for more details about the game and the monsoon.

In the June 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk about the last month of weather (including what Zack has coined the "TooSoon"), the current conditions (including the wildfire situation) and look forward to the monsoon. The monsoon may have officially started on June 15th, but they discuss why we are probably at least a few weeks away from seeing much in the way of rain. Also, we developed a 'play at home' game for guessing monthly monsoon totals, and we're excited to open this up to the general public. You can enter the game (and fill out a short survey about the podcast if you want at https://uarizona.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_eA1GfWVmsatWDLD The link explains the game, and Zack also lays out the rules and points on the podcast.  The game will be for the months of July, August, and September, so you have till June 30th to get your July guesses in.  We'll run another entry for August in July, and so on. Happy Monsoon!

In the June 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk about the last month of weather (including what Zack has coined the "TooSoon"), the current conditions (including the wildfire situation) and look forward to the monsoon. The monsoon may have officially started on June 15th, but they discuss why we are probably at least a few weeks away from seeing much in the way of rain. Also, we developed a 'play at home' game for guessing monthly monsoon totals, and we're excited to open this up to the general public. You can enter the game (and fill out a short survey about the podcast if you want at https://uarizona.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_eA1GfWVmsatWDLD The link explains the game, and Zack also lays out the rules and points on the podcast.  The game will be for the months of July, August, and September, so you have till June 30th to get your July guesses in.  We'll run another entry for August in July, and so on. Happy Monsoon!

We hope that our climate/weather punditry can serve as a short break from concerns about the Covid19/coronavirus outbreak. We plan to continue producing this podcast remotely for the foreseeable future, and this podcast was recorded over Zoom. The sound quality might be a little different (or maybe you won't even notice), but we want to keep making the podcast during the stay-at/work-from-home order. We enjoy these discussions and hope you do too.  -Ben, Mike, and Zack In the April 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido bring you the latest news and commentary about climate in the Southwest. First, they have a conversation about the links between COVID-19 and climate, and the challenges of research during a fast-moving event (You can skip to the 15:00 mark if you want to move straight to their discussion of southwestern climate). For the rest of the podcast, they move through an overview of events from winter and early spring - including just how wet and wildflower-y it has been. This leads to a discussion of wildfire, the timing and quality of current ENSO forecasts, and just a bit of optimism looking towards the monsoon. Discussed in this Episode: Potential Effects of Seasonal and Temperature Changes on Spread of COVID-19 Examined in New Rapid Response to Government from Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases - https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2020/04/potential-effects-of-seasonal-and-temperature-changes-on-spread-of-covid-19-examined-in-new-rapid-response-to-government-from-standing-committee-on-emerging-infectious-diseases

We hope that our climate/weather punditry can serve as a short break from concerns about the Covid19/coronavirus outbreak. We plan to continue producing this podcast remotely for the foreseeable future, and this podcast was recorded over Zoom. The sound quality might be a little different (or maybe you won't even notice), but we want to keep making the podcast during the stay-at/work-from-home order. We enjoy these discussions and hope you do too.  -Ben, Mike, and Zack In the April 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido bring you the latest news and commentary about climate in the Southwest. First, they have a conversation about the links between COVID-19 and climate, and the challenges of research during a fast-moving event (You can skip to the 15:00 mark if you want to move straight to their discussion of southwestern climate). For the rest of the podcast, they move through an overview of events from winter and early spring - including just how wet and wildflower-y it has been. This leads to a discussion of wildfire, the timing and quality of current ENSO forecasts, and just a bit of optimism looking towards the monsoon. Discussed in this Episode: Potential Effects of Seasonal and Temperature Changes on Spread of COVID-19 Examined in New Rapid Response to Government from Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases - https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2020/04/potential-effects-of-seasonal-and-temperature-changes-on-spread-of-covid-19-examined-in-new-rapid-response-to-government-from-standing-committee-on-emerging-infectious-diseases

Looking for the March 2020 Podcast?  We included the wrong bit.ly link in the email and the tweet leads to this page.  The Mar 2020 podcast is here: https://bit.ly/2IZf7GN In the Jan 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a look back at 2019 and the climate that was, and make some bold (and not so bold) predictions for what could happen in 2020.  They also dive into the tricky question regarding drought designations in the Southwest, and grapple with the question of "Are we (still) in a drought?" - a common question we get asked all the time.  The answer (as you might imagine) is more complicated, and depends on lots of things - tune in to hear their answer(s). Maps Discussed in this Episode: NCEI Precipitation and Temperature Ranks (Jan-Dec 2019) WWDT 36 and 72 month Standardized Precipitation Index

In the Dec 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins for a discussion of the fall weather that was, and the winter weather that could be. This includes a very wet November, some of the factors that might affect our winter weather patterns, and the challenge of looking further out than a week or two during an ENSO-neutral winter. Happy Holidays!  We'll be back in (Jan) 2020 for another look at SW climate and weather. November 2019 ranks from National Centers for Environmental Information - ncei.noaa.gov

In the Oct 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the monsoon that was - or in many places, wasn't.  They discuss the monsoon overall (from June 15 - Sept 30), as well as recent September precipitation related to tropical storm activity and cut-off lows, to play the annual "is this monsoon or not?" game. They also think through how these events can juice seasonal totals, and take a closer look at the climatology of events (i.e. tropical storms) that supplement precipitation totals during the June 15 - Sept 30 monsoon period, and they consider how seasonal statistics might play out if we used a more restrictive definition for monsoon days and associated rainfall totals.  The figures below are what they discuss at the end of the podcast (iTunes and Android podcast listeners, visit https://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2019-southwest-climate-podcast-conservation-misery-and-lapse-rate-doping-edition to see these maps)

In the August 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the monsoon to-date (or the Non-Soon as some are calling it). They take a look at the regional precipitation patterns, how 2019 compares to recent years, and how far back we have to look to find a monsoon that is as dry as this one, with implications for drought as well as regional temperatures. They also look forward to the next 4-5 weeks to see if there's any chance to catch up (not likely) or at least finish strong (a bit better chance of that). They also discuss the monsoon fantasy bets, realizing that it might be a bit more fun if it was raining more - but the upshot is for round 2, Zack beat Mike by a cumulative score of 145 to 143 (but noting that a score of 300 would have meant an "average" monthly total for the 3 stations they picked).

In the June edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the astonishingly good run of weather the Southwest experienced in May. This busted their bet game of how many 100 degree days in May (there were zero! - Mike bet 2, Zack bet 5-6) but they'll take that loss every year if they could.  They also discuss what this has meant for drought, snowpack, streamflow, and fire risk, and compare monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns with long term averages. They finish with an extended preview of the monsoon, including a discussion about how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon, despite a pretty regular start date, as well as the challenge of forecasting intensity given how variable the monsoon can be. They also run down some friendly wagers on monsoon totals (June 15 - Sept 30) - with Mike (not surprisingly) picking climatology (6.1 inches), Zack going bullish at 110% of average, and Ben veering pessimist at 75% of average.  They also introduce a new "fantasy monsoon" game that splits the season into 3 periods for them to pick stations in the Southwest they think might over-perform compared to climatology.  For the June 15 - July 15 period, Mike picked Douglas, Nogales, and Gila Hot Springs, and Zack picked Organ Pipe, Kitt Peak, and Tucson. Next month they'll recap their first period scores, and pick 3 new stations for the middle period of the monsoon. Tune into the podcast for details (and we'll include running totals on the CLIMAS website and in the SW Climate Outlook each month).  

In the April 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter that (really) was for most of the Southwest, as well as more recent conditions that have favored Arizona over New Mexico. They also connect late fall and winter precipitation events to current and ongoing issues in the Southwest, including drought and reservoir storage and the status of lakes Mead and Powell, pollen and allergies this spring, and wildfire risk heading into the summer. They wrap up with a discussion of current and projected El Niño conditions, as well as what impact these conditions might have on tropical storm activity and the timing of the monsoon. Regarding the bet: Zack won the Jan-Feb-Mar precip bet with a guess of 2.9 inches (compared to Mike's 2.8) but both were admittedly pretty far off from the actual total of 3.74 (climatology was 2.53). The next bet is for the number of 100 degree days in May and June. Tune in to hear their guesses and send us your own.

In the March 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on the winter so far, including the "frigid" temperatures and "exceptional" precipitation. They also contextualize the winter by looking at the last 5 years - mostly warmer and drier - vs. climatology -- considering what a normal winter might actually look like in the Southwest.  They also discuss snowpack across the west, and consider how widespread this winter activity has been within the West. In addition to a brief detour into the state of El Niño and possible implications, they also revisit Zack's ski trip to slightly snowy Montana (instead of overwhelmingly snowed in Tahoe), and sum up the state of the precipitation bet for Jan-Feb-Mar (in case you missed it, Feb precipitation blew up the totals). They also have a new bet - whether we'll see enough precipitation between now and May 31 to reach top 8 wettest status (Zack's bet) or whether we'll stay in the 8th-14th wettest range (Mike's call).   January February March Total Zack 1.25 0.75 0.9 2.9 Mike 1.5 1.0 0.3 2.8 Climatology 0.94 0.86 0.73 2.53 Actual 1.09 2.03 0.62 (as of Mar 15) 3.74 (as of Mar 15)

In the December edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the flip between our wetter/cooler October, and the drier conditions in November, as well as December so far. Next they dive into the snow - in a discussion of snow climatology in the Southwest, as well as a recent paper about declining snow in the western U.S by some of our colleagues in the Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences. Finally, they talk about the outlook for the next three months (Jan-Feb-Mar) and come up with a new bet tracking the monthly and cumulative totals. Play along at home, or send us your guesses before January gets too far along, and we'll see how you stack up against our "experts".   January February March Total Zack 1.25 0.75 0.9 2.9 Mike 1.5 1.0 0.3 2.8 Climatology 0.94 0.86 0.73 2.53  

In part 2 of the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into El Niño in the Southwest. They discuss the current state of the science, what the forecasts have to say about El Niño, and what climatology can tell us about our expectations for an El Niño event in the Southwest. Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long.  We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the monsoon, Oct/Nov weather & climate, and wildfire in the Southwest, while this part (part 2) covers El Niño in the Southwest (science, seasonal outlooks, and climatology).

In the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido give a brief recap of the monsoon rankings for 2018, to compare seasonal totals, and to see if a bit of hindsight adds anything to our assessment of the monsoon this year. Next they dive into October conditions in the Southwest (precipitation and temperature), and discuss the role that the Pacific tropical storm season played in these events, and the impacts that season had at a regional scale. They finish with a discussion of wildfire, with an eye towards what is happening in California right now. Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long.  We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the topics mentioned above (Monsoon, October/Nov weather & climate, wildfire in the Southwest), while part 2 (to be released early next week) will cover El Niño and the seasonal outlooks for the Southwest).

In the September 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon and talk about how the monsoon fired up and unfolded, some pretty impressive rain totals in the Southwest, and who might have been left out at times.  There are technically still a few days left in the monsoon, but during the 'transition' season of September, it takes some pretty special circumstances (or a tropical storm!) to bring widespread precipitation to the region. Conveniently, this just happened, so they talk about this event (on/around Sept 19) as well as the weather events of the last month and the monsoon precipitation totals (to date). They wrap up with a discussion of "the bet" and preview next month's podcast when they'll dive back into ENSO and the possible-to-likely El Niño that's been brewing for a few months now. 

The Monsoon is back! In the July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido kick off with a recap of the role that Hurricane Bud played in driving storms and moisture into the Southwest on June 15-16, with a focus on the tropical moisture incursion that occurred during the transitional season. They even take a moment to discuss whether that event was the monsoon, or just - in Mike's words ' "monsoon-y". Next, they turn to the onset of the actual monsoon in terms of a few different metrics (precipitation, dewpoint, precipitable water), the atmospheric patterns that affect this onset, and how this shift has affected recent temperatures, wildfire season, and where and how precipitation is falling. They briefly discuss El Niño, as well as the seasonal outlooks that forecast a relatively rosy picture (i.e. wet) for Arizona and parts of New Mexico over the next few weeks and months. They also settle on their friendly wager for this month - how many days in July will have "measurable precipitation" at the Tucson Airport, and what will be the July total.  Mike guessed 10 days with rain and 3.5 inches, while Zack guessed 12 days with rain and 4 inches (as a note: as of July 11, the count stands at 4 days and 1.33 inches). Last month's bet was for the highest recorded temperature in June - Mike won with a guess of 109 (Zack guessed 110), while the actual value was 107. Finally, regarding their guesses for the entire monsoon - Zack guessed 5.75" and Mike  7.5" for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window.  The current value is 1.61" (as of July 12) which is a bit ahead of average, but was augmented by the non-quite-monsoon activity July 15-16.

In the June 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to dive into their favorite season. The monsoon is on the horizon, which leads to considerable excitement.  First, they recap temperature and precipitation in the region, and talk about how this connects to the fire season so far. They turn to the monsoon outlooks and forecasts, with a close look at what these forecasts are saying, but how much certainty we have (or don't have) in monsoon seasonal forecasts. Zack then makes his case for the miracle monsoon - a mash up of different months of monsoons past - for what his ideal monsoon would look like (think fantasy football for monsoon monthly totals). They wrap up with a look at the seasonal forecasts - and focus on how ENSO connects to expectations for tropical storms, the monsoon forecast, and seasonal outlooks, even if the signal is relatively weak this time of year. In what is becoming a monthly contest, there's a friendly wager (or 2!) on the line. This month, Zack and Mike report on the results of their May podcast bet, guessing how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-year average is 4 - Mike guessed 7, and Zack went big with 9 - tune in to the podcast to hear who won.  For the June podcast, they put their best guess as to the maximum temperature we'll see in Tucson in June.  The record maximum in June is 117 (and the lowest high temp recorded in June was 107) - Mike guessed 109, and Zack guessed 110.  they also put forth their monsoon guesses - with Zack at 5.75" and Mike at 7.5' for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window.  We'll see!

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss what happened with the weather over the last 30 days. They break down the event from mid-February that brought a pulse of moisture to SE Arizona and SW New Mexico, including the connection between atmospheric rivers and precipitation in the Southwest (vs. CA). They also discuss the larger regional patterns of rain, snow, and streamflow within the context of the fading La Niña signal, and wrap things up with a new bet. When will the first 100 degree day occur? - tune in for the details, but as is their pattern, Zack is a bit ambitious in his guess, and Mike tends towards climatology.

In the February 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido chat about what's been going on in the Southwest over the past few months, since we last recorded a podcast.  In terms of precipitation, the answer is not much, unless the day in question is also a podcast day - the weather has an odd - but welcome - habit of raining on days we record the podcast.  In terms of temperature, the record to near record heat remains a key part of the winter story. Specifically, Mike and Zack discuss the conditions of the past 1-3 months, focusing on the overall lack of precipitation in the Southwest, meager snowpack, above average temperatures, and impacts associated with warmer and drier than average winters, including an early start to fire season in Arizona. They also discuss the atmospheric patterns that have led to the elevated temperatures and lack of precipitation in the SW, and what changed in the past week that brought much needed moisture and cooler conditions to parts of Arizona and New Mexico. They also grapple with the prospects of a "miracle March" that could pull seasonal precipitation totals back up to near average, and whether we have any shot at this (spoiler: chances aren't great). They also discuss if this were to happen, whether it could quickly reverse long term precipitation deficits and drought impacts (again, unlikely). They wrap up with a discussion of the current La Niña event and the role it has played in the Southwest, as well as what the seasonal outlooks have to say about the next few months. Materials discussed in this episode:

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the regional temperature and precip of the past 30-90 days, including the mostly above average temperatures, the very dry conditions, and the recent precipitation event that hit parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico. They also discuss the California wildfires in the context of the Santa Ana winds, years of persistent drought, and the convergence of conditions that set the stage for the current crisis in California - with an eye towards what conditions in Arizona and New Mexico look like for this coming fire season. They wrap up with a discussion of – you guessed it – La Niña, including connecting the current conditions to the larger arc of persistent drought, seasonal fire risk, and what we might expect looking forward (including a friendly wager on guesses for cool season precip). Materials Discussed in this episode:

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon that wasn't, then very much so was, and then wasn't again (at least in Arizona), as well as the late season surge over in New Mexico.  They discuss the mechanisms that helped push the monsoon to near record levels in July, but helped facilitate a shut down for most of August and nearly all of September.  They also discuss "the bet".  Next month the discussion will return to ENSO, drought, and upcoming forecasts for fall/winter in the SW, but for now, it's all monsoon, all the time.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss May weather in comparison to the record/near-record March conditions, what this means for snowpack, streamflow and reservoir conditions. They also discuss past/present/future wildfire, the imminence of summer heat, and the eventual relief monsoon conditions will bring.  Oh and a bit of El Niño sprinkled throughout - the role it might be playing in seasonal outlooks, and how strong it might be.

We have updated our iTunes podcast feed: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/climas-southwest-climate-podcast/id1215891654 Please change your subscription! In the June 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss May weather in comparison to the record/near-record March conditions, what this means for snowpack, streamflow and reservoir conditions. They also discuss past/present/future wildfire, the imminence of summer heat, and the eventual relief monsoon conditions will bring.  Oh and a bit of El Niño sprinkled throughout - the role it might be playing in seasonal outlooks, and how strong it might be.

In the March 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter season in the Southwest - with an eye towards how Arizona and New Mexico have fared (temperature, precipitation, snowpack, streamflow forecasts, etc.), as well as to the exceptional events taking place in California and across the Intermountain West.  They also try to put this "La Niña" into context, how it did (or did not) meet expectations, and whether that even matters at this point, as well as what the rumblings of El Niño might mean for the rest of the Spring (and 2017 overall).  Materials discussed in this podcast:   CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the March 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter season in the Southwest - with an eye towards how Arizona and New Mexico have fared (temperature, precipitation, snowpack, streamflow forecasts, etc.), as well as to the exceptional events taking place in California and across the Intermountain West. They also try to put this "La Niña" into context, how it did (or did not) meet expectations, and whether that even matters at this point, as well as what the rumblings of El Niño might mean for the rest of the Spring (and 2017 overall).

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the last few months of weather in the Southwest, and how it doesn't quite look like we might have expected given borderline La Niña conditions. They also discuss the recent run of storms, and what this might mean for drought, as well as the decay of La Niña and what this might mean for the rest of the winter in the Southwest.  They share their mix of optimism given the weak/decaying La Niña, and pessimism given how dry the Southwest can be even under normal conditions.  They also dive into a discussion of other models that inform our perspective on regional weather and climate (PDO, MJO).

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the last few months of weather in the Southwest, and how it doesn't quite look like we might have expected given borderline La Niña conditions, as well as the recent run of storms, and what this might mean for drought in short and long term. They also discuss the decay of La Niña and what this might mean for the rest of the winter in the Southwest - with a mix of optimism given the weak/decaying La Niña, and pessimism given how dry the Southwest can be even under normal conditions.  They also dive into a discussion of other models that inform our perspective on regional weather and climate (PDO, MJO).

In the December (Holiday!) edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the last few months of (warm, mostly dry) weather in the Southwest, what the season may hold given the "weak" La Niña conditions that may (or may not) be sticking around through the early part of 2017, and how the impacts we look for in the Southwest are connected to much larger regional and global phenomena - Atmospheric Rivers & the Polar Vortex (respectively).

In the December (Holiday!) edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the last few months of (warm, mostly dry) weather in the Southwest, what the season may hold given the "weak" La Niña conditions that may (or may not) be sticking around through the early part of 2017, and how the impacts we look for in the Southwest are connected to much larger regional and global phenomena - Atmospheric Rivers & the Polar Vortex (respectively).

In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a range of topics, including: A recap the last month of weather in the Southwest (including our hot and dry October and what the first half of November brought),  A look back at the water year (Oct 1 2015 - Sep 30 2016) to discuss how the Southwest fared, and what this perspective lends to our understanding of SW climate, A look forward to La Niña - what the models are saying, as well as what these patterns might mean for winter in the Southwest.  

In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a range of topics, including: A recap the last month of weather in the Southwest (including our hot and dry October and what the first half of November brought), a look back at the water year (Oct 1 2015 - Sep 30 2016) to discuss how the Southwest fared, and what this perspective lends to our understanding of SW climate, and a look forward to La Niña - what the models are saying, as well as what these patterns might mean for winter in the Southwest.

In the August episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the monsoon in the Southwest. They recap the monsoon, they discuss the components that factor into monsoon precipitation patterns and the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of that precipitation, and the way the monsoon can fade or surge as the official season winds down, depending on how the season progresses (and how much tropical storm activity contributes to the seasonal total). Note: In what should probably be a running disclaimer for the duration of the monsoon, given the variability and unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, this podcast was recorded prior to the storms that rolled into SW Arizona in the last few days. The most salient point is that Tacna is no longer at 0.00 inches for the monsoon (as Mike mentioned in the podcast). As with last month, we'd like to take credit for the uptick in a region we called out, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last two months!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting.

In the August episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the monsoon in the Southwest. They recap the monsoon, they discuss the components that factor into monsoon precipitation patterns and the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of that precipitation, and the way the monsoon can fade or surge as the official season winds down, depending on how the season progresses (and how much tropical storm activity contributes) Note: In what should probably be a running disclaimer for the duration of the monsoon, given the variability and unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, this podcast was recorded prior to the storms that rolled into SW Arizona in the last few days. The most salient point is that Tacna is no longer at 0.00 inches for the monsoon (as Mike mentioned in the podcast). As with last month, we'd like to take credit for the uptick in a region we called out, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last two months!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting.

Note: this podcast was recorded just prior to the run of storms that fired up in late July, so while Mike and Zack hint at the upcoming storms and moisture (most models were pointed towards an uptick in monsoon activity, their discussion does not cover this latest run of storms (we'll save a discussion of this event for the next podcast). We'd like to take credit for the increased monsoon activity, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last month!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting. In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the monsoon in the Southwest, focusing on the big events that closed out June, and the relatively long "break" that followed for much of July.  After such a strong start, this extended break was especially disappointing.  They also track the building conditions that point towards an uptick in activity (that has since come to fruition) and highlight how the inherent variability of monsoon activity (and the various components that go into the monsoon) make it so difficult to forecast a few days in advance, much less at a seasonal time scale. Note 2: Mike wants to assure listeners that it has rained (quite a lot) at his house, and as such, he is in a much better mood.  

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the monsoon in the Southwest, focusing on the big events that closed out June, and the relatively long "break" that followed for much of July, and the patterns and circulation that drives these (inevitable) breaks, but recognizing that after such a strong start, this extended break was especially disappointing.  They also track the building conditions that point towards an uptick in activity (that has since come to fruition) and highlight how the inherent variability of monsoon activity (and the various components that go into the monsoon) make it so difficult to forecast a few days in advance, much less at a seasonal time scale. Note: this podcast was recorded just prior to the run of storms that fired up in late July, so while Mike and Zack hint at the upcoming storms and moisture (most models were pointed towards an uptick in monsoon activity, their discussion does not cover this latest run of storms (we'll save a discussion of this event for the next podcast). We'd like to take credit for the increased monsoon activity, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last month!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting. Note 2: Mike wants to assure listeners that it has rained (quite a lot) at his house since we recorded, and as such, he is in an excellent mood.

In the June 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at May and June to discuss the relatively mild weather of May, the near-record heat in June, and the transition into the monsoon.  In the second half of the podcast, they dive into the weeds on monsoon climatology and the variable spatial and temporal patterns that characterize the monsoon in the Southwest. They highlight what we might expect in the next 90 days, along with a discussion of the difficulty of creating regional monsoon season forecasts (given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and the randomness of weather). Please note: we recorded this podcast prior to the run of storms that hit the Southwest in the last week of June. Most of the podcast is focused on a recap of past events, or evergreen discussions of climatological features of the monsoon in the Southwest, but there are a few references to potential monsoon activity and building storms that refer to (at the time of recording) forecasts and possible future conditions or events that have already come to pass, or have even exceeded normal/expectations.

In the June 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at May and June to discuss the relatively mild weather of May, the near-record heat in June, and the transition into the monsoon.  In the second half of the podcast, they dive into the weeds on monsoon climatology and the variable spatial and temporal patterns that characterize the monsoon in the Southwest. They highlight what we might expect in the next 90 days, along with a discussion of the difficulty of creating regional monsoon season forecasts (given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and the randomness of weather). Please note: we recorded this podcast prior to the run of storms that hit the Southwest in the last week of June. Most of the podcast is focused on a recap of past events, or evergreen discussions of climatological features of the monsoon in the Southwest, but there are a few references to potential monsoon activity and building storms that refer to (at the time of recording) current conditions or forecasts that have already taken place (at time of publishing).

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a side range of topics related to weather and climate in the Southwest, including:  The transition from winter into spring so far with a recap of weather over the past month, including the recent run of milder and wetter weather than we might expect in a normally dry period, A deeper dive on the ongoing disappointment that was El Niño, by looking closely at a preliminary analysis (Levine & McPhaden, below), and what it begins to tell us in diagnosing what happened with El Niño An exploration of the wildfire risk potential for this year, and how recent years compare, going back to the 2011 fire season, and An early start to discussing the monsoon, partly because the season is closer than we might think, but also as a way to divert attention from what Zack is calling the "doom season" (hot and dry conditions leading up to the monsoon). Online Resources How the July 2014 Easterly Wind Burst Gave the 2015-6 El Niño a Head Start - Aaron F. Z. Levine & Michael J. McPhaden Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts April 21, 2016

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a side range of topics related to weather and climate in the Southwest, including: -The transition from winter into spring so far with a recap of weather over the past month, including the recent run of milder and wetter weather than we might expect in a normally dry period, -A deeper dive on the ongoing disappointment that was El Niño, by looking closely at a preliminary analysis, and what it begins to tell us in diagnosing what happened with El Niño -An exploration of the wildfire risk potential for this year, and how recent years compare, going back to the 2011 fire season, and -An early start to discussing the monsoon, partly because the season is closer than we might think, but also as a way to divert attention from what Zack is calling the "doom season" (hot and dry conditions leading up to the monsoon).

In the early April edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at our exceptional El Niño event, which may be standing out for all the wrong reasons - especially in the Southwest.  They discuss the anomalously warm and dry conditions the Southwest has experienced since early January; and put these conditions into context regarding our expectations in a strong El Niño year, what might be driving these patterns (and the moisture away from us), and just where that moisture has gone.  They also discuss the similarities of the current precipitation pattern to La Niña (i.e. dry in the Southwest and wet in the Northwest) but highlight how this event is very different from La Niña associated atmospheric patterns (even if the precipitation patterns feel like a La Niña year). They also point out that while we're not in a La Niña yet..but forecasts call for much higher chances of a swing to La Niña by fall of this year.  They also look forward to the rest of the spring, including the last gasp of moisture the second week of April, and what this underwhelming El Niño might mean for regional drought, snowpack, and wildfire conditions. We'll be back near the end of April with another podcast episode that takes a more comprehensive look at just how this El Niño event compared to expectations (models and forecasts), and what we've learned from this event.

In the early April edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at our exceptional El Niño event, which may be standing out for all the wrong reasons - especially in the Southwest. They discuss the anomalously warm and dry conditions the Southwest has experienced since early January, and put this into context regarding our expectations in a strong El Niño year, what might be driving these patterns (and the moisture away from us), and just where that moisture has gone. They also discuss the similarities of the current preciptation pattern to La Niña (i.e. dry in the Southwest and wet in the Northwest) but highlight how this event is very different from La Niña associated atmospheric patterns (even if the precipitation patterns feel like a La Niña year - They point out we're not in a La Niña yet..but that forecasts call for much higher chances of a swing to La Niña by fall of this year. They also look forward to the rest of the spring, including the last gasp of moisture the second week of April, and what this underwhelming El Niño might mean for regional drought, snowpack, and wildfire conditions. We'll be back near the end of April with another podcast episode that takes a more comprehensive look at just how this El Niño event compared to expectations (models and forecasts), and what we've learned from this event.

In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño.  They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.  

In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño. They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.

In the January 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan** recap the transitional weather patterns of the last few months of 2015 as we moved from Fall into Winter, and discuss whether this transitional season matched general expectations, given what is expected in an El Niño year.  They also discuss what a characteristic southwestern winter pattern looks like, and conclude the podcast with a conversation about how this El Niño event has stacked up so far this winter, and what they anticipate over the next few months. *We had a small technical difficulty with the audio quality that delayed publication until today, but the conversation is still timely/relevant especially considering the general break in winter storm activity we've seen since early January (Jan 31 notwithstanding). **Zack Guido is away on a research project but will join us again in February. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest.  They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record.  They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation).  They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.  

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one particular system that made two visits to the Southwest. They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record. They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation). They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.

In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the "strong" status of this El Niño event. Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn't start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally. Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last "strong" El Niño event...can we expect more of the same? What might be different? Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter? When might we see this increase? Any chance for a "boringly average" year, despite the El Niño signal? We'll be back at the end of September with a Monsoon recap, as well as up to date information regarding El Niño and what this might mean for the Southwest in 2015-2016.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the 2015 monsoon so far, with thoughts on how it has fared, and what it looks like for the rest of the monsoon, particularly with El Niño looming on the horizon.  In addition to a general summary and recap, they look at spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon, some of the features that drive 'breaks' in the monsoon, and what impact El Niño might be having now, and this winter, especially if it remains a strong event.  They also talk about expectations and what makes a "normal" monsoon, as well as how our expectations might be shaping how we perceive any given monsoon event or season. They cut short the El Niño discussion, as we've planned a special El Niño-centric podcast for Aug 21, to take a deeper look at El Niño so far, what we might expect, and how this (strong) event could compare to other similar events...so stay tuned regarding El Niño. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the 2015 monsoon so far, with thoughts on how it has fared, and what it looks like for the rest of the monsoon, particularly with El Niño looming on the horizon. In addition to a general summary and recap, they look at spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon, some of the features that drive 'breaks' in the monsoon, and what impact El Niño might be having now, and this winter, especially if it remains a strong event. They also talk about expectations and what makes a "normal" monsoon, as well as how our expectations might be shaping how we perceive any given monsoon event or season. They cut short the El Niño discussion, as we've planned a special El Niño-centric podcast for Aug 21, to take a deeper look at El Niño so far, what we might expect, and how this (strong) event could compare to other similar events...so stay tuned regarding El Niño.

In a special edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins: Recap the monsoon so far in 2015, including some of the factors that have affected our season (e.g. tropical storm systems) and the impacts we have seen from the monsoon in 2015 Discuss the features of the monsoon - the "ingredients" that make up the monsoon, and what happens when any of these are disrupted or absent, and Look forward regarding interactions between the monsoon and the current moderate-to-strong El Niño signal - what this might mean for the rest of the monsoon. We wanted to put together a special all monsoon podcast (this actually started as a "mini" podcast, but there was just too much to cover!).  We'll be back in early August with climate summaries, more on the monsoon, and (of course!) the current state of El Niño and what that means for the Southwest. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In a special edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins: --Recap the monsoon so far in 2015, including some of the factors that have affected our season (e.g. tropical storm systems) and the impacts we have seen from the monsoon in 2015 --Discuss the features of the monsoon - the "ingredients" that make up the monsoon, and what happens when any of these are disrupted or absent, and --Look forward regarding interactions between the monsoon and the current moderate-to-strong El Niño signal - what this might mean for the rest of the monsoon. We wanted to put together a special all monsoon podcast (this actually started as a "mini" podcast, but there was just too much to cover!). We'll be back in early August with climate summaries, more on the monsoon, and (of course!) the current state of El Niño and what that means for the Southwest.

In the May 2015 Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins reconvene to talk about the Winter patterns that fed into our current situation, and how it has actually been pretty moist and cool (for this time of year) after a very warm winter.  They then turn back to El Niño - which despite being hard to predict, forecast, or describe - has given us a lot to think about.  They exercise some warranted caution in putting too much stock in forecasts given the "excitement" surrounding a strong El Niño event, but the patterns in place are suggesting this enthusiasm might not be misplaced.  They move on to talk about how El Niño may affect tropical storm activity and monsoon patterns looking into Summer and Fall 2015, as well as the impacts of last year's monsoon (and mild weather this Spring) on fire season.  Drought and water availability present a less optimistic scenario - below average winter precipitation and above average winter temperatures for most of the Western U.S. mean snowpack is well below average heading into summer, with implications for water storage and availability.   0:00 -- Intro - Our Most (Least) Favorite Month of the Year, Winter Recap & El Niño 2:20 -- Recapping Winter Patterns - Precipitation, Temperature, Record Setting Averages & "Warm West / Cold East" Jetstream Patterns 5:00 -- Jetstream as ENSO Precursor Pattern - Transition into an El Niño Event Now That the Atmosphere is Finally Cooperating 8:30 -- Different from Last Spring - Despite Similarities with Spring 2014 (in the Models) - "Excitement" in the Models 11:00 -- Caution in Forecasting El Niño - Spring Predictability Barrier - Difficulty in Modeling in the Spring, Analogs, and Small Sample Size 15:00 -- Shifts in Global Circulation - How this Affects Tropical Storm Activity & Monsoon Precipitation (for the Southwest, mainly) - Flooding Hazards with El Niño 19:30 -- Monsoon & Fire Season - Heading into Fire Season - Mixed Precipitation but Late/Wet/Cool Spring Tamping Down Early Fire Season - California and NW may be in trouble regarding Fire, while Monsoon Patterns will bring Summer Relief (for AZ and NM) 23:30 -- Recap of Winter/Spring Patterns & Streamflow - Split Flow Jetstream and Character of Spring Storms - Very "El Niño-ish" - Recap of Streamflow Projections - Below Average Winter Precipitation Across the West (Plus High Temperatures) 27:00 -- Looking Forward to the Monsoon - Hoping for a Good Monsoon That Starts on Time If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook Suggested Source/Citation: CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015) May 2015 SW Climate Podcast - Winter Recap Following a Mild Spring, El Niño Slotting into Place, and Looking Towards Summer - with Wildfire, Tropical Storms, and the Monsoon on Tap [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/may-2015-sw-climate-podcast-winter-recap-following-mild-spring-el-ni%C3%B1o-slotting-place-and [Date Accessed] CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

We're introducing a new podcast series that focuses on quick and timely reporting on important climate news and information. We will emphasize stories that relate to the southwest, but we'll also include other climate related news that illustrate the impact of climate on national or global scales. And Mike, Zack, and Ben will still take a deeper look at southwestern climate issues in the monthly CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. This episode, we're focused on record warm temperatures, drought, and snowpack across the west, along with a few stories that illustrate the downstream impact of these conditions.

We're introducing a new podcast series that focuses on quick and timely reporting on important climate news and information. We will emphasize stories that relate to the southwest, but we'll also include other climate related news that illustrate the impact of climate on national or global scales.  And Mike, Zack, and Ben will still take a deeper look at southwestern climate issues in the monthly CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. This episode, we're focused on record warm temperatures, drought, and snowpack across the west, along with a few stories that illustrate the downstream impact of these conditions. This podcast is also available as a video podcast   See our blog post detailing the information from the podcast: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog/mini-podcastnews-southwest-climate-update-may-1-2015 Image & Story Credits - Podcast & Blog Post 2014 and 2015 Record Temperatures National Climate Data Center (NCDC) - State of the Climate - Overview 2014 Warmest Year on Record Figure: Decadal Averages - Annual & Decadal Global Mean Temperatures - Source: NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA Figure: Statewide Average Temperature Ranks - Jan - Dec 2014 - Source: NCDC Figure: Statewide Average Temperature Ranks - Jan - Mar 2015 - Source: NCDC Figure: Westwide SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal - Source: NRCS State of the Drought Drought is leading AZ to think about Water Planning Figure: U.S. Drought Monitor Weekly Update - April 21, 2015 - Source: USDM Figure: Northern Sierra Precip - 8-Station Index - Source: CA Dept of Water Resources Figure: Central Arizona Project Systems Map - Source: CAP Figure: Agricultural Use by Crop - Source: Mother Jones Figure: Central Arizona Project Sytems Map - Source: CAP Figure: Lake Mead Elevation - Source: CLIMAS (using Bureau of Reclamation Data) Figure: Tier 1 Shortage - Source: April 10, 2015 UA Water Forum Figure: Tucson Water Use - Source: Tucson Water Bark Beetles, Tree Stress, and Climate Change Bark Beetles Are Decimating Our Forests. That Might Actually Be a Good Thing. (Mother Jones) Figure: Rocky Mountain Region Bark Beetle - Source: U.S. Forest Service Figure: Arizona & New Mexico Bark Beetle Mortality - Source: U.S. Forest Service Figure: Percentage of Trees Seen With Damage - Source: U.S. Forest Service & Karen Minot (Mother Jones)  Record Low Snowpack Across the West  Record low snowpack and drought - California water restrictions (Weather.com) Figure: Snow Water Equivalent - Source: NRCS Figure: California Snowpack - Source: California Department of Water Resources FIgure: California Water Restrictions Press Conference - Source: Weather.com Snowpack, Drought, & Energy Information & Figures: California drought leads to less hydropower, increased natural gas generation - U.S. Energy Information Administration  Climate Change, Temperature & Precipitation Records, and Pollen Information & Figures: Warm temperatures and a wet fall resulted in a very heavy pollen season this year. Source: http://www.earthgauge.net/2015/climate-change-pollen-and-allergy-season CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Emily Huddleston

In the March Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back from his world travels (for work!) and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss SW climate, including winter precipitation, snowpack, and temperature reports so far.  They also dive into the "warm in the west, cold in the east" pattern, and talk jetstream, polar vortex, and digging troughs as it pertains to SW weather patterns.  Next up is the (finally arriving!) El Niño, which is a bit late, and a bit weak, but there are interesting aspects of this year to consider looking into the next year, especially the persistent ridge that has helped drive the patterns of the past few months.  Finally they wrap up by looking into next year regarding what's left of winter, and what 2015 may have in store. Intro 0:00 Climate Summary: Precipitation in the SW (variable), Snowpack (very low), Warm temps and low snow, Drought still going strong (especially in CA), Temperature reports (record or near record temps across the west) 1:30 Polar Opposites: The "dipole" - warm in the west - cold in the east - pattern we've seen - Jetstream, Polar Vortex, and Digging Troughs - impact on SW weather 7:30 What's going on with El Niño this year?: We finally get El Niño (a weak one), but what do we make of it finally (and weakly) arriving?  Limited effects expected (or experienced so far) in the SW. 11:50 Persistent Ridge: Pacific Ocean temperatures, jetstream patterns, and tropical convection - Thinking about El Niño pre-cursors and moving towards a more typical El Niño - but this is an unusual case (even exciting!) - and how does this relate to the Arctic Oscillation 15:00 El Niño and SST into Next Year?: Ocean/Atmosphere may be too late for this year and hard to predict...but with ENSO precursors and additional Kelvin Waves - might not be done with El Niño 24:00 Looking Forward: What's left for the winter? (not too much), and the drought/streamflow forecasts are not very optimistic, but there is still time for a few good winter storms, but with a weak El Niño event, uncertain what we'll see in the next 30-60 days. 25:30 If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook Suggested Source/Citation: CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015).Mar 2015 SW Climate Podcast: Winter Weather Summary, Polar Opposites & El Niño Finally Arrives [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/mar-2015-sw-climate-podcast-winter-weather-summary-polar-opposites-el-ni%C3%B1o-finally-arrives [Date Accessed] CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the January Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss the state of the climate in 2014, including the record year for Arizona and the near record year for New Mexico.  They also talk about weather systems that affected our most recent temperature and precipitation patterns, the ongoing uncertainty with El Niño, or as some have started referring to it, "El Limbo", and the state of precipitation and drought in the southwest.  They wrap things up looking at the seasonal outlooks and the projected trends for the coming year.  Intro 0:00 Climate Summary: Temperature and Precipitation, weak and spotty storms in December and January 1:50 Winter Storms: Water storage and winter precipitation patterns 8:00 Weather vs. Climate: Weather variability vs. Climate patterns, "El Limbo", and winter precip patterns given these trends 13:00 2014 Record Year: 2014 Temperature Records Recap 22:00 Precip and Drought: Winter patterns and drought - how much moisture "solves" the drought  24:00 Looking Forward: Jetstreams & Winter Weather Patterns + Seasonal Forecasts 27:30 If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook Suggested Source/Citation: CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015). 2014 Year in Review, and Stuck in El Limbo . [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/jan-2015-sw-climate-podcast-2014-year-review-and-stuck-el-limbo [Date Accessed] CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the November Southwest Climate Podcast, Ben McMahan and Mike Crimmins discuss the warm autumn weather in the southwest, the transition to winter weather patterns, the ongoing uncertainty of El Niño forecasts, a recap of El Niño conditions and definitions, and the possibility of interaction between El Niño conditions and weather patterns in the southwest looking forward. Intro 0:00 A Wet and Warm Autumn: Warmer than average temps, higher than average humidity, and a recent "cold" snap 1:00 Recap of 2014 Tropical Storm Season: A more active season in the E Pacific 7:30 El Niño Forecast Models: More on how El Niño is defined, models that go into them, and the current state of "now-casting" 13:44 El Niño Definition: Revisiting a more precise definition of El Niño and the conditions we might expect (if it ever arrives) 22:00 Looking toward the Future: Impact of El Niño conditions on the SW, and looking forward into 2015  27:00 Recap on Long Term Forecasts & Looking Forward 34:00 If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook Also, as we mentioned last month, we have a new podcast feature: video mini-segments from the podcast.  We have four segments posted from previous podcasts, including: Monsoon & Drought Q&A SW Tropical Storm Climatology ENSO (El Niño) Models Q&A Norbert vs. Odile - SW Tropical Storm Comparison And we have decided to release approximate transcripts of the podcast.   Suggested Source/Citation: CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2014). A Warm End to Autumn and Waiting for ENSO. [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/nov-2014-sw-climate-podcast-warm-end-autumn-and-waiting-enso [Date Accessed] CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins

In the October Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the 2014 monsoon, focusing on the influence of tropical storm systems, record and near-record precipitation events, monsoon intensity and duration, and the ever-present promise of El Niño. Intro 0:00 Monsoon/Precipitation Recap: Including influence of tropical storms, record/near-record precipitation, comparison to 2013 1:00 Tropical storm influence: Extending the monsoon and driving seasonal totals 10:00 El Niño Forecast Models: Predicting a wet fall/winter, El Niño influence, Kelvin wave effects and warm waters in the Pacific 15:10 El Niño "Now-Casting": Unique case to watch, why El Niño has been hard to predict 20:00 Drought Mitigation and Winter Precip: - El Niño conditions are favorable and it's almost here  26:00 Recap & Looking Forward: (Arctic Oscillation) 31:30 If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook Also, as we mentioned last month, we have a new podcast feature: video mini-segments from the podcast.  We have four segments posted from previous podcasts, including: Monsoon & Drought Q&A SW Tropical Storm Climatology ENSO (El Niño) Models Q&A Norbert vs. Odile - SW Tropical Storm Comparison And we have decided to release approximate transcripts of the podcast.   Suggested Source/Citation: CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2014). Monsoon Recap and an El Niño Double Dip. [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2014-sw-climate-podcast-monsoon-recap-and-el-ni%C3%B1o-double-dip [Date Accessed] CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido