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As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins? It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York. Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through. On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can. Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting. Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation. How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic. So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting. Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right? So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
Bracing themselves for a busy Island Games schedule this year in Orkney will be the Isle of Man's badminton squad.Looking to build on three medals at the last games two years ago, it's expected to be long days out on court for the team, singles and doubles events for the ten-strong Isle of Man lineup.One of the who appeared and was among the medals last time out was Matthew Nicholson, one of those ten which will feature a mix of experience and games debutants in 2025.Mr Nicholson's been telling Manx Radio how its been getting ready for the hectic yet rewarding experience of the event:
On this episode of The Cedric Maxwell Podcast, Celtics legend Cedric Maxwell joins CLNS Media's John Zannis to give his thoughts on the offseason, Brad Stevens, and whether Joe Mazzulla is the right guy for the future. He also reveals his all-time Celtics starting 5 and if he thinks the C's should sign Damian Lillard! 0:00 ⏰EPISODE TIMELINE⏰ 1:07 What type of team can C's fans expect to see next season? 7:47 Are the Celtics at risk of developing a losing culture? 13:09 Will this team get over/under 42 wins? 23:23 PrizePicks 25:02 Thoughts on this offseason so far 30:06 Is Brad Stevens doing a good job? 31:18 Is Joe Mazzulla the right man for this situation? 34:32 Is Tatum in the best Celtic of all time conversation? 37:25 Cedric Maxwell's all-time Celtic's starting 5 40:54 Brad Stevens' comments on extending Joe Mazzulla's contract 49:26 Tatum injury timeline 52:20 Should C's sign Lillard? 56:58 Subscribe to Celtics All Access on YouTube! 57:52 How many games will the Patriots win this year? 1:00:57 Thanks for watching! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This Day in Maine Thursday, July 10, 2025
The All Local for July 8
Get ready for the next episode on the Public Health Joy Podcast!
Mark and Ryan Petty help kick off your 4th weekend with the One Big Beautiful Bill and Chicago bracing for a murderous weekend, well because it's Chicago and that's what happens in huge Democrat cities on holiday weekends, they kill each other then bitch about your gun rights.
The NSW State Emergency Service has over 300 volunteers on stand-by around the state with concerns a "bomb cyclone" is intensifying off the coast. Plus, the jury is deliberating in the mushroom murder trial that's been dominating headlines, and news that celebrity chef Rick Stein is opening a new restaurant in Sydney.
After a weekend of major flooding, Motueka Valley residents are already being warned to brace for yet another potential deluge later this week. The area has been one of the hardest hit by flooding after the Motueka River burst its banks amid torrential rain on Friday and into Saturday. Nick James reports.
Free articles and courses about movement from Bill Hartman at http://uhp.network Episode OverviewIn this episode, Chris and Bill take aim at the overused and under-defined concept of "core training." They unpack how the term has been inflated into a one-size-fits-all solution for pain, posture, and performance — without coherence or clarity. Key Topics & Chapter Highlights00:00 – Core as a Catch-All02:45 – The Problem with “Core Weakness”05:10 – What Does the Core Even Mean?08:00 – The Myth of Bracing11:25 – Structure Shapes Strategy14:50 – Breathing vs. Bracing17:30 – Positional Relevance20:20 – Rehab Defaults and Lazy Logic23:00 – A Better Question: What Is This Shape Solving For?26:15 – Core Emerges, It's Not TargetedKey Takeaways“The Core” Lacks Coherence The term is too vague to be useful. It's become a placeholder for problems we haven't fully diagnosed.Bracing is Not the Answer Most core training uses bracing as a fix — but that often compresses options and distorts the system's ability to move.Breath Drives Support Coherent systems don't stabilize through tension — they use pressure gradients, breath, and timing to support action.Structure Shapes Need Different archetypes demand different strategies. Core work that ignores structure will likely create conflict.Emergence Over Isolation Core integrity isn't trained — it emerges when the system organizes itself well under load, direction, and breath.LEARN MOREJOIN the UHP Network to learn directly from Bill through articles, videos and courses.http://UHP.network FOLLOW Bill on IG to stay up to date on when his courses are coming out:IG: https://www.instagram.com/bill_hartman_pt/TRAIN WITH BILLInterested in the only training program based on Bill Hartman's Model?Join the rapidly growing community who are reconstructing their bodies at https://www.reconu.co FREE EBOOK by Bill about the guiding principles of training when you fill out your sign-up form. http://www.reconu.co SUBSCRIBE for even more helpful content:YT: https://www.youtube.com/@BillHartmanPTIG: https://www.instagram.com/bill_hartman_pt/FB: https://www.facebook.com/BillHartmanPTWEB: https://billhartmanpt.com/Podcast audio:https://open.spotify.com/show/7cJM6v5S38RLroac6BQjrd?si=eca3b211dafc4202https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/reconsider-with-bill-hartman/id1662268221or download with YT Premium
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Natalie Orpett, and University of Virginia School of Law professor Ashley Deeks, to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“Bracing for Fallout.” In a surprise move, President Trump joined Israel's military campaign against Iran over the weekend, using a specialized U.S. ordinance to hit Iranian nuclear sites that were beyond Israel's early reach. It's unclear to what extent the attack set back Iran's nuclear ambitions, and debates continue to rage whether the president's actions were wise or legal. But it did trigger an Iranian response against U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf — action that was shortly followed by a tentative U.S.-backed ceasefire between Iran and Israel. What best explains the president's decision to join the military campaign? And what will the consequences be, both in the region and back home in the United States?“Destinations Unknown.” In a short, unexplained opinion in the matter of DHS v. DVD this past week, the Supreme Court stayed a lower court preliminary injunction that had barred the Trump administration from removing immigrants to third countries with minimal procedural protections against threats of torture and other mistreatment. But the exact ramifications of this holding are unclear, as the Justice Department has now returned to the Court asking for clarification as to whether its ruling also invalidates a later order applying the class-wide prohibition in the initial preliminary injunction to a specific group of individuals. What explains the Supreme Court's odd approach in this case? And what could its broader ramifications be for the Trump administration's immigration agenda?“‘Bove the Law.” A now-public internal Justice Department whistleblower report alleges that Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General—and current Third Circuit nominee—Emil Bove endorsed plans to disregard judicial orders that would have obstructed the removal of foreign nationals in directing the Department of Homeland Security that it did not need to return certain deportation flights already in the air after a judge directed as much from the bench. How serious a transgression has Bove committed if these allegations are true? And what impact will they have on his Third Circuit confirmation?In object lessons, forget day-of-the-week underpants (or pronghorn shirts)! Ben spurs on a need for more day-of-the-week monsters with the last weather report you'll ever need. Natalie is escaping, not just from reality but also from the heat, with her local bookstore, East City Bookshop. Scott shared the heartbreaking news that The Atlantic is stealing yet another Rational Security co-host emeritus as our beloved Quinta Jurecic begins her next crazy venture beneath the skies (Quinta, we miss you already!). And Ashley, channeling our bereavement at Quinta's departure, recommends Alone on the History Channel.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Natalie Orpett, and University of Virginia School of Law professor Ashley Deeks, to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“Bracing for Fallout.” In a surprise move, President Trump joined Israel's military campaign against Iran over the weekend, using a specialized U.S. ordinance to hit Iranian nuclear sites that were beyond Israel's early reach. It's unclear to what extent the attack set back Iran's nuclear ambitions, and debates continue to rage whether the president's actions were wise or legal. But it did trigger an Iranian response against U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf — action that was shortly followed by a tentative U.S.-backed ceasefire between Iran and Israel. What best explains the president's decision to join the military campaign? And what will the consequences be, both in the region and back home in the United States?“Destinations Unknown.” In a short, unexplained opinion in the matter of DHS v. DVD this past week, the Supreme Court stayed a lower court preliminary injunction that had barred the Trump administration from removing immigrants to third countries with minimal procedural protections against threats of torture and other mistreatment. But the exact ramifications of this holding are unclear, as the Justice Department has now returned to the Court asking for clarification as to whether its ruling also invalidates a later order applying the class-wide prohibition in the initial preliminary injunction to a specific group of individuals. What explains the Supreme Court's odd approach in this case? And what could its broader ramifications be for the Trump administration's immigration agenda?“‘Bove the Law.” A now-public internal Justice Department whistleblower report alleges that Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General—and current Third Circuit nominee—Emil Bove endorsed plans to disregard judicial orders that would have obstructed the removal of foreign nationals in directing the Department of Homeland Security that it did not need to return certain deportation flights already in the air after a judge directed as much from the bench. How serious a transgression has Bove committed if these allegations are true? And what impact will they have on his Third Circuit confirmation?In object lessons, forget day-of-the-week underpants (or pronghorn shirts)! Ben spurs on a need for more day-of-the-week monsters with the last weather report you'll ever need. Natalie is escaping, not just from reality but also from the heat, with her local bookstore, East City Bookshop. Scott shared the heartbreaking news that The Atlantic is stealing yet another Rational Security co-host emeritus as our beloved Quinta Jurecic begins her next crazy venture beneath the skies (Quinta, we miss you already!). And Ashley, channeling our bereavement at Quinta's departure, recommends Alone on the History Channel.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Cathy and Chris sit down with Clayton Blunk of My Pet's Brace, a leader in custom orthopedic solutions for pets. With nearly 90% of their braces designed for CCL (cranial cruciate ligament) injuries—the most common orthopedic issue in dogs—we explore how custom knee bracing offers a non-surgical path to pain relief and mobility. From choosing the right candidates to partnering with veterinary teams, we take you inside the journey of bracing…and beyond.
A new international study involving researchers from Durham University has revealed that climate change is accelerating the rate of development and global abundances of antibiotic resistance bacteria in soils. The findings, published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, highlight a new and deeply concerning less seen consequence of global warming to public health. Rising antibiotic resistance in soils The study shows that rising global temperatures are significantly increasing the abundance of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and virulence factors in soil microbial communities. These genes can make bacteria less susceptible to the effects of antibiotics, increasing the probability of acquiring antibiotic resistant infections, including from dangerous pathogens. The research, which integrates field data, metagenomic analysis, and laboratory experiments, provides compelling evidence that warmer conditions will favour the survival and evolution of pathogenic and other bacteria that are resistant to therapeutic treatment - bacteria that often originate in the natural environment. Professor David W. Graham of Durham University, co-author of this study, a water engineer and expert in antibiotic resistance, says "the study exemplifies how closely connected human health is with environmental change." This research provides compelling evidence that climate change is more than an environmental crisis, it also is impacting global antibiotic resistance due to warming. This research forms part of a growing body of evidence that environmental factors, including global warming, are playing a crucial role in the spread of antimicrobial resistance. It underscores the importance of a 'One Health' approach that recognises the interconnected nature of human, animal, and environmental health. Professor Graham said: "Most people do not realise that most of the pathogens that cause infectious disease humans actually originate from the environment. "Therefore, increasing resistance in soils will almost certainly translate into increased levels of untreatable infections in human and veterinary practice. This is why One Health solutions are important". The study found that the impact of warming will be more pronounced in colder regions. In the past, colder temperatures normally kill off bacteria, especially human pathogens, but as temperatures increases, such strains will survive longer, which this study shows. As temperatures rise, bacteria also appear to changing on an evolutionary level, with an increased probability of genetic changes and the appearance of 'new' pathogens to which no antibiotic options exist. Professor Graham said: "The relationship between climate and antibiotic resistance was predicted in the 2023 United Nations report: Bracing for Superbugs: Strengthening environmental action in the One Health response to antimicrobial resistance and the new work here provides concrete evidence for that prediction." The research team found that even modest increases in temperature can trigger significant rises in the abundance of ARGs, particularly in bacterial groups such as Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes, which are known carriers of resistance and virulence genes. Laboratory experiments with Escherichia coli confirmed that elevated temperatures lead to increased expression of antibiotic resistance genes, including those involved in efflux pumps and stress response proteins, which are key mechanisms in bacterial defence. Moreover, machine learning models used in the study project that, under high-emission climate scenarios, global levels of soil ARGs could rise by up to 23 percent by the end of this century. The researchers warn that climate-driven changes to microbial communities could undermine efforts to control antibiotic resistance and may lead to greater risks of infection from previous antibiotic-susceptable bacteria from soils and, more importantly, an increased probability new pathogen 'jumping' from environmental sources ...
Is a US military strike on Iran imminent? A source tells CNN President trump has reviewed attack plans but is holding off for now to see if Tehran is willing to back away from its nuclear program. Meanwhile, an Iranian missile strikes a hospital in the southern part of Israel, prompting the Israeli defense minister to say Iran's supreme leader cannot be "allowed to exist," calling him a "modern Hitler." Anderson Cooper joins the show live from Tel Aviv. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Erin Burnett is live from Los Angeles where hundreds of Marines are outside the city and at the ready to enter as tensions remain high. There are reportedly 200 arrests last night as a second night of a curfew is hours away. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Is this real... Nope, riots are manufactured. Israel to launch operation on Iran. Bracing for another night of riots. Waiving a White Flag in Nascar is rasict. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Is this real... Nope, riots are manufactured. Israel to launch operation on Iran. Bracing for another night of riots. Waiving a White Flag in Nascar is rasict.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Is this real... Nope, riots are manufactured. Israel to launch operation on Iran. Bracing for another night of riots. Waiving a White Flag in Nascar is rasict.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Is this real... Nope, riots are manufactured. Israel to launch operation on Iran. Bracing for another night of riots. Waiving a White Flag in Nascar is rasict.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Looming Crisis Few Want to Confront Paul Daneshrad, CEO of StarPoint Properties and author of Money and Morons, is sounding the alarm: the United States is barreling toward a sovereign debt reckoning – and real estate professionals are not nearly prepared. Citing economists Reinhart and Rogoff, along with voices as diverse as Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell, and Ray Dalio, Daneshrad warns that the U.S. has not only crossed the 100% debt-to-GDP threshold, widely viewed as a critical danger zone, but has kept accelerating. "We're at 120 to 140% on-balance-sheet," he notes. "If you include off-balance-sheet liabilities, we're at 300%." While the exact timing of the crisis is unknowable, Daneshrad argues that its inevitability is not. “It's not a question of if – it's when.” Politics, Populism, and Normalcy Bias Daneshrad is quick to dismiss the conventional partisan narrative. The deficit is no longer a left-right issue, it's a bipartisan affliction. Both political parties, he argues, are fueling structural imbalances. Worse, the electorate, while voicing concern, refuses to vote for hard choices. This disconnect is the heart of his book's provocative title: Money and Morons. “86% of Americans say they're worried about the debt,” he says. “But they won't vote for politicians willing to solve it, because that solution involves pain.” The result is what psychologists call “normalcy bias” – an instinct to ignore looming threats and retreat into the comfort of the familiar. Fixed-Rate Fortresses: Real Estate's First Line of Defense If the debt crisis triggers hyperinflation and a spike in interest rates, as Daneshrad expects, the implications for real estate will be seismic. His response? Radical preparation. StarPoint has already begun shifting its portfolio into 20+ year fixed-rate debt and is moving toward 30-year structures. “It's painful. It's more expensive. But if the crisis comes in eight years, and you've got two years left on a 10-year loan, you're vulnerable.” He emphasizes that this is not a fringe view. “Even Powell, whose mandate doesn't include the deficit, felt compelled to warn the public. That's how serious it is.” Deleveraging with Purpose Debt levels at StarPoint are also coming down – fast. The firm is targeting 40% leverage, down from a peak of 70%. They currently sit at 54%, and the journey continues. The rationale is clear: when interest rates jump from 6% to 15%, the re-pricing of real estate will be brutal. “That's trillions in lost value,” says Daneshrad. “You have to de-risk now.” The Forgotten Asset: Cash Cash, often derided for its lack of yield in boom times, plays a central role in Daneshrad's playbook. “The Rockefellers, Kennedys, Guggenheims – they had cash when it mattered. They bought at two cents on the dollar.” Berkshire Hathaway's record cash holdings reinforce this strategy. “Buffett sees limited opportunity right now and high risk. That should tell you something.” Daneshrad recommends targeting cash reserves as a percentage of either AUM or annual free cash flow, steadily building them over time. "Public companies get punished for it. Private firms like ours have more flexibility and we're using it." Why He's Not Buying (Yet) Despite market dislocation, Daneshrad says StarPoint is mostly sitting on the sidelines. Cap rate spreads don't justify the risk, and few deals offer the deep value he's targeting. “We're looking for rebound plays where sellers are on their third buyer and need certainty of close. That's where the discounts are. But those opportunities are rare.” Asked whether the mispricing stems from short-term underwriting or optimism bias, he shrugs. “We've flooded the system with liquidity. Asset prices are artificially propped up.” Diversification and the Limits of Real Estate Daneshrad is not betting the farm on U.S. real estate. He's pursuing modest geographic diversification abroad and expanding into non-real estate asset classes. “Historically, real estate hedges inflation well but a debt crisis changes everything.” He's candid about the difficulty: “We're not that smart. Timing a crisis is hard. But we can prepare for one.” The Aging America Conundrum One of the more nuanced points Daneshrad raises is the intersection of demography and fiscal sustainability. Aging, he agrees, is inevitable. But the care infrastructure it requires is not financially supported. “The trustees for Social Security and Medicare, not politicians, say the funds go bankrupt in under ten years. That's $90 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities.” Senior housing? “A great idea if the elderly can pay. But with savings rates at historic lows, I'm not optimistic.” Market Signals That Matter Daneshrad watches for three early signs of crisis: A gradual rise in interest rates – not driven by Fed hikes but by market demands for higher risk premiums. Breakdown of the flight-to-safety dynamic – if equities fall but bond yields rise, that's a red flag. The ‘bang moment' – as coined by Reinhart and Rogoff, when confidence evaporates overnight. As Hemingway once said about bankruptcy, it happens "gradually, then suddenly." What He'd Do with $1 Million Today If handed an extra million in cash, Daneshrad says he'd hold 80% in cash and invest the rest. “Protect the capital. Diversify over multiple asset classes. Liquidity is opportunity.” Final Word Paul Daneshrad's message is sobering but clear: “Protect. Prepare. Don't pretend.” He doesn't claim to predict the future. But if you accept the warnings from the smartest voices in finance and economics, the case for defensive posturing is overwhelming. And if they're wrong? You lose a few basis points. But if they're right you survive the bang. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Senator Peter Boehm and Senator Peter Harder to discuss the 51st G7 Summit which will be held for the second time in Kananaskis, Alberta. // Participants' bios - Senator Peter Boehm is a former Sherpa and Chair of the Senate, Foreign Affairs International Trade Committee. - Senator Peter Harder is a former Sherpa and Deputy Chair of the Senate, Foreign Affairs International Trade Committee and government representative. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // Reading Recommendations: - "Policy Q&A: Former G7 Sherpa Sen. Peter Boehm on Trump, Charlevoix and Bracing for Kananaskis" by Lisa Van Dusen - "Karla's Choice" by Nick Harkaway - "The Bee Sting" by Paul Murray // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Jordyn Carroll // Recording Date: June 9, 2025 Release date: June 9, 2025
They come in cool colors, catch popcorn kernels and sometimes even have spacers - it's braces! Ever wondered how braces magically straighten teeth? We asked Dr. ArNelle Wright - a real life dentist! - to help us break down the science of these tiny metal wonders.Bracing for a tough question? Send it to us at BrainsOn.org/contact, and we'll help uncover the tooth.
When a woman allows herself to be vulnerable with a man who responds with safety and acceptance, it creates a new energetic blueprint in her nervous system of what a healthy connection feels like. In this episode, we break down the top fears women carry into a first date, show you how to reclaim your body's wisdom, and give men simple, real-world moves to create genuine safety and openness.We talk about how:- Bracing for disappointment creates a contracted energy where women constantly look for signs he'll let them down- This defensive posture prevents women from seeing good men clearly and blocks the natural flow of feminine energy- Fear of abandonment causes women to hold back vulnerable parts of themselves, paradoxically guaranteeing the rejection they fear- The fear of objectification makes women feel dehumanized- Both men and women need to heal their perceptions of the collective masculine/feminineGrab our new merch (“Going to Therapy Makes You Hotter” tees & crewnecks): https://tr.ee/3yrykFuqEvWant to work with Bri and/or Courtney?Connect with Bri on Instagram: @buildingbricoachingConnect with Courtney on Instagram: @courtney_schandFollow the show on Instagram: @thefortheloveofmenpodcastCheck out our website: www.fortheloveofmenpodcast.com
What if government contracting didn't have to be competitive but could be collaborative instead? Joining Dr. Joyee Washington today is Dr. Lauren Josephs, researcher, CEO of Visionary Vanguard Group, and self-proclaimed “destiny helper.” Tuning in, you'll hear all about our guest's career, how she got into government contracting, the importance of embracing hard work, and so much more! We delve into some of Dr. Josephs' strategies in handling challenges such as budget cuts before she shares the experience of being awarded her first contract. We also discuss the power of gratitude in all endeavors, successful or not. Finally, our guest tells us what brings her joy in her work. To hear all this and find out how you can purchase The Bracing for 2025 Summit Replay, press play now!P.S. Got a public health business and want to amplify your brand? Become a sponsor of the Public Health Joy Podcast today! Complete our sponsorship request form here: https://clients.joyeewashington.com/public/form/view/6685b1f173bbe6003a105903Key Points From This Episode:Introducing today's guest, Dr. Lauren Josephs. [02:15]How Dr. Josephs got into the world of government contracting work. [05:49]A reminder that all achievements require a certain level of hard work. [13:10]Practical strategies Dr. Josephs uses to handle challenges in her work. [14:58]Insight into her experience of being awarded her first contract. [20:29]Why she's always grateful for every opportunity, no matter the outcome. [29:54]What brings Dr. Josephs joy in her work. [31:24]If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe, rate and, leave a review! For more transcripts, show notes,and more visit: https://joyeewashington.com/public-health-joy-season-4/
Bracing for an election victory last summer, Keir Starmer and his team were given a memo by Sue Gray, then chief of staff. Dubbed "Sue's s*** list" it warned of six domestic policy disasters waiting to happen. We review and add to it as Labour's challenges grow in office. Plus: our team can't stop wrangling about the Strategic Defence Review. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oral Arguments for the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit
SME Steel Contractors, Inc. v. Seismic Bracing Company, LLC
Doug and Greg discuss the recent court ruling on tariffs and the implications for the market. Highlighted by Nvidia's impressive earnings, they'll also talk about the ongoing AI revolution and how it will affect inflation, decentralization, and the job market. They finish by looking at the housing market, which now has the highest recorded rate of sellers vs. buyers. Key Takeaways [0:18] - Tariff turmoil: the court's decision and market reactions [12:37] - Nvidia earnings & the AI revolution [17:27] - Bracing for job disruption that will come from AI [22:16] - Shifting real estate market dynamics View Transcript Links Federal court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law Goldman, Morgan Stanley Say Trump Can Deploy Other Tariff Tools Trump erupts when asked about 'TACO trade' The Tech Industry Is Huge—and Europe's Share of It Is Very Small Cullen Roche's Three Things – Exponential AI The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. The repeat homebuyer age was 40 in 2000. It's 61 now. Apartment List national rent data Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.
Here's a simple 5-step method I created to help stay calm, present, and grounded when you're facing uncertainty and bracing for the unknown. In this episode, I'm diving into a mindset strategy that helped me through a really intense week filled with anxiety and uncertainty. When life feels overwhelming and fear creeps in, it's so important to have a simple plan to stay grounded. I'll walk you through the exact five steps I used to calm my mind, stay present, and truly enjoy the moments that mattered most. If you ever find yourself stuck in a cycle of worry, these steps will help you find your way back to peace. Action Plan: 1 - Acknowledge your awareness: Notice when your mind is jumping ahead to worst-case scenarios — awareness gives you back your power. 2 - Set a clear intention: Decide to stay grounded and present, even when challenges are looming. 3 - Focus on your breath: Take three deep, intentional breaths to signal to your body that it's safe. 4 - Tune into your senses: Name three things you can see, hear, or feel to anchor yourself to the present moment. 5 - Redirect your thoughts: Practice gratitude, flip a negative "what if" into a positive one, and envision something you're excited about. Get in touch with Megan below. Website | Instagram
Also in the programme: English police have arrested a man after a car ploughed through a crowd after the victory parade for Liverpool football club. And as Venezuela's government congratulates itself on a huge victory's in Sunday's election, the leader of the opposition tells us why she ordered a boycott of the vote. (Photo: Palestinian girl suffering from malnutrition is watched over by her grandmother at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, 26th May 2025. Credit: Haitham Imad/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
Have you ever walked into a date date already braced for rejection or with that sinking feeling of "What if she thinks I'm not enough?". In this episode, we we flip the script on what men are bracing for in dating—and why it matters for both sides. Prepare to Walk Away Knowing:- Why "I don't want to waste my time" backfires (and how to reframe dating as skill-building, not a job interview)- The exact energetic shift that makes her lean in (hint: It's not "try harder")- How to spot the difference between healthy feminine feedback vs. wounded emasculation - Why "not enough" is a symptom, and not the truth (and how to flip it into your superpower)- Bri's boundary script for avoiding the "meal ticket" trap without sounding jadedResources:#104 Who Should Pay for Dates?: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3hkrJcoQykGFWAaMdsIELK?si=S37nVLDxQaOe4btwSCM6AAShop our Merch: https://tr.ee/3yrykFuqEvWant to work with Bri and/or Courtney?Connect with Bri on Instagram: @buildingbricoachingConnect with Courtney on Instagram: @courtney_schandFollow the show on Instagram: @thefortheloveofmenpodcastCheck out our website: www.fortheloveofmenpodcast.com
In this episode, Rebecca explores the intricate workings of the subconscious mind and its impact on our ability to achieve our goals. She shares insights into why we sometimes feel stuck despite being ready for success and how our subconscious mind prioritizes safety over our conscious desires. Key Takeaways: Understanding Bracing vs. Blocking: Rebecca highlights the concept of "bracing," where our subconscious mind holds us back not out of fear of failure, but as a protective measure based on past experiences. The Importance of Safety: Our subconscious mind seeks safety and familiarity. By identifying and addressing past traumas or "gunk," we can create a sense of safety that allows us to move forward with confidence and ease. Body Connection: Emotions are felt physically, and tuning into these sensations can provide valuable insights into our subconscious programming. Ready to unlock your potential and embrace the life you desire? Tune in to dive deeper into these concepts and start your journey toward transformation. If you're ready for a shift and want personalized guidance, set up a consultation at callwithrebecca.com. Let's work together to make your vision a reality.
A lot of people don't understand what diversity, equity, and inclusion actually are. That's one reason why it's such a hot topic today. Lekeshia Hicks is a seasoned human resource strategist, entrepreneur, and founder of Lekeshia Angelique Consulting. She joins the podcast today to speak about the power of diversity, equity, and inclusion in public health. Tuning in, you'll hear Lekeshia's perspective on what DEI does and does not mean, where equal employment opportunity finds relevance, and how government contracting interacts with DEI. We also dive into the perspective of servant leadership in DEI work and what it means to approach leadership from a place of empowering others. Lastly, Lekeshia shares the true joy of her work, which is in seeing lives genuinely changed. Key Points From This Episode:What you can gain from listening to the replay of The Bracing for 2025 Summit. [0:00]Background on this episode's guest: entrepreneur and founder Lekeshia Hicks. [0:01:18]What DEI means and does not mean. [0:05:151]Equal employment opportunity and DEI. [0:08:14]How government contracting and DEI interact with each other. [0:11:52]The true challenge of being a public health researcher and entrepreneur. [15:47]Lekeshia's introduction to working in DEI and government contracting. [0:18:39]How servant leadership links with DEI. [0:20:35]What servant leadership truly is and how we can reflect it in our work. [0:20:35]Sources of joy in Lekeshia's work. [0:22:34] If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe, rate and, leave a review! For more transcripts, show notes,and more visit: https://joyeewashington.com/public-health-joy-season-4/
Some New Jersey commuters could be stranded or stuck home with no transportation early Friday. AP correspondent Donna Warder reports.
What inspires someone to dedicate their life to the Church? In this episode, Deacon Alex Hall and Deacon Alex Marquette share their powerful journeys of discernment, the challenges they faced, and the faith it takes to say “yes” to God's call to the priesthood.Like what you're hearing? Leave us a review, subscribe, and follow us on social media @practicingcatholicshow! Facebook Instagram YouTube
San Francisco may need to brace for a surge in homelessness. Today, how national cuts affect Bay Area housing insecurity. Then, a local author explores the dark art of weaponized storytelling in a new episode of Book It.
In this episode, Carl, our go-to strength and conditioning guru joins us again to finally demystify core engagement for swimmers. We're unpacking the Pilates inspired Halloween technique. Versus Stuart McGill's bracing method and revealing simple land drills. Think step ups, carries and hip rotations that make your core switch on automatically. Once you hit the water, Carl will share why loosening your hips could be the missing link in your freestyle. How to balance front, back and side core work. And one posture tweak that instantly transforms your catch. If you've ever felt your hips sink, or your kicks play, or your back start to ache mid set, this episode is for you. Grab your goggles and maybe a chair, because by the end of this, you'll know exactly how to build a swimming core that's strong, supple, and effortless. Let's get into the podcast. Timestamps: 01:51 Introduction to Core Strength 04:32 Understanding Core Engagement Techniques 07:20 Common Mistakes in Core Control 10:27 Exercises for Core Strength in Swimming 15:30 Bracing vs. Automatic Core Engagement 18:19 Posture and Its Impact on Core Function 21:22 Strengthening the Back for Core Stability 24:22 Conclusion and Key Takeaways
Dr. Kent Pekel joined Vineeta Sawkar to explain the decision from the Trump Administration that will affect a lot of students and their families.
The President teases plans for additional tariffs with no end in sight for his trade war chaos. And, Trump's sons promote business deals across the globe that could make millions for the family and for POTUS himself, all without acknowledging potential conflicts of interest. Plus, consumers are about to feel the impact of a looming supply chain crisis as the number of shipments coming to the US declines. Luke Broadwater, Susan Glasser, David Drucker, Natasha Sarin, Bharat Ramamurti, Justin Wolfers, Gene Seroka, and Kristy Greenberg join The 11th Hour.
'Thunderbolts' has fans buzzing ahead of opening weekend; Bracing for tariff-driven price hikes; '20/20' preview: The Rose Petal Murder Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The Barbell Mamas Podcast | Pregnancy, Postpartum, Pelvic Health
Having a strong brace is important for lifting heavy weights. It is a critical part of CrossFit, powerlifting and weightlifting. Not to mention just life. We use bracing when we move couches, pick up our kiddos etc. Weightlifting belts are a performance aid that really helps us to create stiffness through our midline to lift more as well. We did an entire video on it on our YouTube channel. Knowing HOW to brace and use a weightlifting belt though is super important for our pelvic floors AND our performance. 50% of women pee when they lift heavy weights. That is a massive number! But there is things we can do about it. We break it all down in this week's podcast episode If youre interested in learning specifica considerations for returning to bracing postpartum, check out our Barbells after Babies Webinar free. ___________________________________________________________________________Don't miss out on any of the TEA coming out of the Barbell Mamas by subscribing to our newsletter You can also follow us on Instagram and YouTube for all the up-to-date information you need about pelvic health and female athletes. Interested in our programs? Check us out here!
It's the annual Summer Movie Wager! Our friends BJ Colangelo, Germain Lussier, and Peter Sciretta return to make their wagers along with the Filmcast crew, on this summer's box office. Come back in the fall to see who will reign supreme as the winner of the 2025 wager. You can play along at thesummermoviewager.com. To be considered for the leaderboard, you must enter by Wednesday April 30, 2025. We're making video versions of our reviews! Be sure to follow us on the following platforms: YouTube Tiktok Instagram Threads Thanks to our SPONSOR: BETTERHELP: This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com/filmcast today to get 10% off your first month. Weekly Plugs David - Decoding TV Devindra - Engadget Podcast: Pixel 9a review + Bracing for tariffs Jeff - runjeffrun.com The Summer Movie Wager is a game that we play during the summer of each year. You can find the history of the game and play along at thesummermoviewager.com (thanks to Dennis for putting that site together). The general goal of this game is to predict the highest grossing films of the summer in terms of domestic box office, in the correct order. The closer you get to the final ranked order, the more points you get. This year, the summer movie wager will begin on May 1, 2025 (with the release of Thunderbolts) and last through September 1, 2025, Labor Day, as usual. Each of your 13 picks (10 movies and 3 dark horses) gets a single score assigned to it by using the following rules: -If your picked movie for #1 OR #10 is correct, you score 13 points for it. -If your picked movie for 2-9 is correct, you score 10 points for it. -If your picked movie is only 1 spot away from its actual placement, you score 7 points for it. -If your picked movie is only 2 spots away from its actual placement, you score 5 points for it. -If your picked movie is placed inside the Top 10, you score 3 points for it. -If your picked movie is not placed inside the Top 10, you score 0 points for it. -For each of your picked dark horses placed inside the Top 10, you score 1 point. If two or more rules apply to a single pick, only that single rule will be applied which assigns the highest point value to that pick. For example: If your pick for #1 is correct, you don't get 16 points for it because it is #1 and because it placed inside the Top 10; instead you only get 13 points for it. Germain's Top 10 1. Lilo & Stitch 2. Jurassic World Rebirth 3. Superman 4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps 5. How to Train Your Dragon 6. Thunderbolts* 7. F1 8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning 9. Elio 10. 28 Years Later DARK HORSES: - Ballerina - M3GAN 2.0 - The Naked Gun TIE BREAKER: $457MM BJ's Top 10 1. Jurassic World Rebirth 2. Lilo & Stitch 3. Superman 4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps 5. How to Train Your Dragon 6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning 7. Thunderbolts* 8. Final Destination: Bloodlines 9. Ballerina 10. Elio DARK HORSES: - M3GAN 2.0 - Karate Kid: Legends - F1 TIE BREAKER: $527MM Peter's Top 10 1. Lilo & Stitch 2. Superman 3. Jurassic World Rebirth 4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps 5. How to Train Your Dragon 6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning 7. Thunderbolts* 8. Karate Kid: Legends 9. Elio 10. F1 DARK HORSES: - Ballerina - M3GAN 2.0 - Smurfs TIE BREAKER: $402MM Devindra's Top 10 1. Lilo & Stitch 2. Jurassic World Rebirth 3. Superman 4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps 5. F1 6. How to Train Your Dragon 7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning 8. Karate Kid: Legends 9. Thunderbolts* 10. Elio DARK HORSES: - M3GAN 2.0 - Final Destination: Bloodlines - Freakier Friday TIE BREAKER: $510MM Jeff's Top 10 1. Lilo & Stitch 2. Superman 3. Jurassic World Rebirth 4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps 5. Elio 6. How to Train Your Dragon 7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning 8. F1 9. Thunderbolts* 10. Freakier Friday DARK HORSES: - M3GAN 2.0 - Karate Kid: Legends - The Bad Guys 2 TIE BREAKER: $520MM David's Top 10 1. How to Train Your Dragon 2. Jurassic World Rebirth 3. Lilo & Stitch 4. Superman 5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps 6. Karate Kid: Legends 7. Thunderbolts* 8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning 9. F1 10. Elio DARK HORSES: - Ballerina - The Bad Guys 2 - Final Destination: Bloodlines TIE BREAKER: $530MM Support David's artistic endeavors at his Patreon and subscribe to his free newsletter Decoding Everything. Check out Jeff Cannata's podcasts DLC and We Have Concerns. Listen to Devindra's podcast with Engadget on all things tech. You can always e-mail us at slashfilmcast(AT)gmail(DOT)com. Credits: Our theme song is by Varsity Blue, the newest project byTim McEwan from The Midnight. This episode was edited by Noah Ross who also created our weekly plugs and spoiler bumper music. Our Slashfilmcourt music comes from Simon Harris. If you'd like advertise with us or sponsor us, please e-mail slashfilmcast@gmail.com. You can support the podcast by going to patreon.com/filmpodcast or by leaving a review on Apple Podcasts.
ICYMI: Hour Two of ‘Later, with Mo'Kelly' Presents – Thoughts on the impact the impending Trump Tariffs are going to have on everything from the new Nintendo Switch to your favorite sneakers…PLUS – Iconic singer Tracy Chapman is urging fans to support their favorite artist by buying their records instead of streaming their music AND an anonymous testimony is being considered in Diddy trial - on KFI AM 640…Live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app
Financial markets sank in the wake of President Trump's decision to impose tariffs on practically all goods being imported to the U.S. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is a member of the Senate budget and finance committees. His state of Wisconsin exports more than $27 billion in goods to international markets and he joined Amna Nawaz to discuss the tariffs. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders
Trump is expected to unveil his tariff plan Wednesday. This as the Senate majority leader tries to laugh off Trump's talk of a third term. Plus, a CNN investigation reveals more than a dozen attorneys general from across the United States taking luxury foreign trips and getting it paid for by the groups they are investigating. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
More tariffs are set to take effect April 2, and in most cases, American consumers and businesses will pay the tax. We’ll explain why some sectors expect prices to rise as soon as next month while others won’t feel a pinch until later in the year. Also in this episode: Tariffs could inflate the dollar’s strength while sapping demand for American exports, Gen Zers feel “trapped” by microtrends and Alaskan crude oil production is projected to jump in 2026.
More tariffs are set to take effect April 2, and in most cases, American consumers and businesses will pay the tax. We’ll explain why some sectors expect prices to rise as soon as next month while others won’t feel a pinch until later in the year. Also in this episode: Tariffs could inflate the dollar’s strength while sapping demand for American exports, Gen Zers feel “trapped” by microtrends and Alaskan crude oil production is projected to jump in 2026.