Podcast appearances and mentions of Peter L Bernstein

"Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk" by Peter L. Bernstein is a captivating narrative that traces the history and evolution of risk, offering profound insights into the world of finance, statistics, and probability. Rich with historical anecdotes and intellectual discourse, the book delves into the human understanding of uncertainty, from the ancient belief in divine intervention to the sophisticated mathematical models of the modern era. Bernstein presents an illuminating chronicle of risk management's pioneers, the groundbreaking theories they developed, and their transformative impact on decision-making in business, finance, and life. However, while celebrating these achievements, he also provides a sobering examination of their limitations, cautioning readers about the perils of over-reliance on models and theories. Through this book, Bernstein not only broadens our understanding of risk but also challenges us to critically evaluate and judiciously apply these tools in managing uncertainty.

In our inaugural episode, host Sarah Samuels, CFA, CAIA, sits down with Ted Seides, CFA, founder of Capital Allocators, an ecosystem that includes podcasts, gatherings, and advisory. The two talk about Ted's career journey, advice for investment professionals managing their careers, his bet with Warren Buffett, and his overall investment philosophy.   Show notes Ted Seides, CFA is the founder of Capital Allocators, an ecosystem that includes podcasts, gatherings, and advisory. Ted launched the Capital Allocators podcast in 2017. The show reached 17MM downloads as of September 2023 and has been recognized as the top institutional investing podcast.   Alongside the podcast, Ted created Capital Allocators Summits with friend and industry veteran Rahul Moodgal to bring together industry leaders to connect and learn. He developed Capital Allocators University to teach senior professionals non-investment disciplines that are essential to investment success. He also advises managers on business strategy and allocators on investment strategy.   In March 2021, Ted published his second book, Capital Allocators: How the world's elite money managers lead and invest that distills key lessons from the first 150 episodes of the podcast. In October 2022, he was honored as Citizen of the Year at With Intelligence's inaugural Allocator Prizes.   From 2002 to 2015, Ted was co-founder of Protégé Partners LLC and served as President and Co-Chief Investment Officer. Protégé was a leading multibillion-dollar alternative investment firm that invested in and seeded small hedge funds. In 2010, Larry Kochard and Cathleen Rittereiser profiled Ted in the book Top Hedge Fund Investors. In 2016, Ted authored his first book, So You Want to Start a Hedge Fund: Lessons for Managers and Allocators, to share lessons from his experience.   Ted began his career from 1992-1997 under the tutelage of David Swensen at the Yale University Investments Office. During his five years at Yale, Ted focused on external public equity managers and internal fixed income portfolio management. Following business school, he spent two years investing directly in public and private equity at three of Yale's managers, Brahman Capital, Stonebridge Partners, and J.H. Whitney & Company.   With aspirations to demonstrate the benefits of hedge funds on institutional portfolios to a broad audience, Ted made a non-profitable wager with Warren Buffett that pitted the 10-year performance of the S&P 500 against a selection of five hedge fund of funds from 2008-2017.   Ted writes a blog called What Ted's Thinking and previously wrote columns for Institutional Investor, CFA Institute's Enterprising Investor, the late Peter L. Bernstein's Economics and Portfolio Strategy.   He is a member of the Advisory Council for the Alliance for Decision Education and a participant in the Hero's Journey Foundation. Ted previously served as Trustee and member of the investment committee at the Wenner-Gren Foundation, Trustee and head of the Programming Committee for the Greenwich Roundtable, and an Advisory Board member of Citizen Schools-New York.   Ted graduated Cum Laude from Yale University and received an MBA from Harvard Business School.   Disclaimer This podcast is the property of the CFA Society Boston. It may not be copied, duplicated, or disseminated in whole or in part without the prior written consent of CFA Society Boston. ​The comments, suggestions, and advice provided in and during this podcast are of the applicable host and guests and not of their respective employers or CFA Society Boston, its members, employees, or volunteers. This proprietary podcast is provided for general informational purposes only and was prepared based on the current information available, including information from public and other sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, correctness, appropriateness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions, or conclusions expressed in the podcast and by the presenters. ​ Information in this podcast should not be considered as a recommendation or advice to own any specific asset class.  This podcast does not take into account your needs, personal investment objectives, or financial situation. Prior to acting on any information contained herein, you should consider the appropriateness for you and consult your financial professional.  All securities, financial products, and transactions involve risks, including unanticipated market, financial, currency, or political developments. Past performance should not be seen as a reliable indication of future performance and nothing herein should be construed as a guaranty of results. ​ This podcast is not, and nothing in it should be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation of any specific financial services company or professional, or an offer, invitation or recommendation to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities in any jurisdiction.   Pull Up a Chair is produced by Association Briefings.

BIO: Sean Harper is the co-founder and CEO of Kin, an insurance company built from scratch on modern tech to make it easier and more affordable to insure a home.STORY: When Sean started his first business, things got so hard that when a company offered to buy it, he sold it without a second thought. Ten years later, he still regrets this decision.LEARNING: Believe in yourself. Be systematic when setting up your business. Iterate until you come up with something that the market appreciates. “You make things happen by convincing people of your vision, and that's what selling is.”Sean Harper Guest profileSean Harper is the co-founder and CEO of Kin, an insurance company built from scratch on modern tech to make it easier and more affordable to insure a home.A self-proclaimed tech geek, Sean has spent his career developing apps to revolutionize antiquated industries. When he realized that the homeowners insurance industry was still being managed unlike any other consumer financial products today (relying on paperwork, legacy IT systems, and distribution through local brokers), he saw an opportunity.Sean co-founded Kin as a tech-based insurance agency in 2016 and has grown it to a fully-licensed home insurance carrier supported by a team of over 400 employees. With a focus on ease, affordability, and exceptional service, Sean and his team are changing the way insurance is done.Worst investment everSean started his previous company, a payment processing business, in 2009. It was tough for Sean to start this company. He raised a bit of angel money and tried one version of the product, but it didn't sell well, so he pivoted and rebuilt the product from scratch.Growing the business was getting harder by the day, and Sean's investors were losing patience. A prominent public company came along and wanted to buy Sean's company for its technology. Sean sold the company.Three years later, companies in the same industry, like Stripe, were now big multibillion-dollar businesses dominating the industry. These companies wiped out Sean's business. Just three years after selling the business, there was no trace of it. This was a very disappointing outcome, and it made Sean regret selling the business. He should have stuck with it, even though it was hard. Ten years later, he still regrets that decision.Lessons learnedBelieve in yourself.Be systematic when setting up your business.Have the right investors, supporters, and mentors.Andrew's takeawaysIf you're struggling to raise capital, chances are you need a better market fit with your product.Iterate until you come up with something that the market appreciates.When you sell your business, don't go work for the buyer.When you start a business, go as fast as possible to get between $3 million and $5 million in revenue.Actionable adviceSurround yourself with people who have conviction and who believe in your idea.Sean's recommended resourcesAgainst the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein. The book is about statistics, probability, and early capitalism before we even had an economy.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsSean's number one goal for the next 12 months is to get to profitability and not have to raise money every year from investors.Parting...

Se você mora no Brasil, impossível não ter notado no dia a dia o fenômeno da inflação. O nível geral de preços subiu, do tomate à gasolina. E esse é um fato em todo o mundo. Afinal, essa inflação é estrutural ou passageira? – é a pergunta que não é calar, das mesas de nossas casas até os corredores do mercado financeiro. Decidimos convidar quem conhece muito do tema pra ajudar você a desvendar esse mistério, tão importante pro nosso cotidiano. No nosso divã está dessa vez Mário Torós, sócio-gestor da Ibiuna e ex-diretor de política monetária do Banco Central. A ferramenta usada pelo Banco Central para controlar inflação é a tal da política monetária, via ajustes nos juros – ninguém melhor do que quem já usou o instrumento para nos explicar como funciona na prática e também dizer o que pensa sofre o futuro. Não é só teoria. A Ibiuna tem tido resultados excepcionais em seu fundo multimercados com posições em inflação e juros, no Brasil e lá fora. O Bilhões no Divã, como você já sabe, é um podcast que surgiu pra falar de dinheiro do jeito certo. Não sobre os ruídos do momento, mas sobre o que é realmente relevante pra você construir patrimônio. Aproveite! Host: Luciana Seabra @seabraluciana Twitter / YouTube / Spotify Convidado: Mario Torós LiPoFi - Recomendações Filme Casa Gucci Livros Against the Gods: The remarkable story of risk - Peter L. Bernstein

In this episode, Mason Arnold Founder of Cece’s Veggie Co., talks to our host, Cameron Albert-Deitch, about his Book Smart pick, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein

In this first episode,  presenters Laurent Birade and James Partridge explore the history of credit risk using "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk" by Peter L. Bernstein to put the current environment of risk management into a historical perspective. Listen in as they discuss key innovations that have built the current credit environment, including the Roman numeral system, the concept of zero, games of chance, and risk aversion. Learn more about our hosts: Laurent BiradeJames PartridgeThis episode makes references to the following works:Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of RiskAuthor: Peter L. BernsetinPublisher: Wiley; Edition Unstated (August 31, 1998)

Samy Dana e Dony de Nuccio respondem, em mais um Tira-teima, à dúvida enviada ao Cafeína: “Entro na bolsa agora ou espero 2021?”. Alguns críticos apontam que alguns preços na B3 estão quebrando recordes em meio à entrada de novos investidores. Mas existe uma estratégia de investimento que ajuda a evitar as incertezas de momento. Não perca também as dicas culturais do Invescult. Samy comenta o interessante livro “Desafio aos Deuses: a Fascinante História do Risco”, de Peter L. Bernstein. E a sugestão de Dony é o programa “Shark Tank: Negociando com Tubarões”, em que empreendedores contam a sua ideia, sendo fortemente questionados por investidores-anjo.

Startups are a strange beast and the people that navigate them lead interesting professional lives and tackle unique challenges, to say the least. Join us for deep dives into what goes on in the heads and hearts of people starting tech businesses, hoping for the unicorn.   Joining us in our inaugural dive into everything startups is Ron Williams, VPO at Subspace.   Welcome to the Tony Wong podcast!   Key Takeaways [7:05] Ron went from teaching himself to program at 12 years old in the ’80s, to combat planning software in the air force. He was part of the birth of the Internet with SunMicrosystems and eventually shifted into security and worked at three unicorns in the last ten years.   [16:30] Building a startup is much like a normal job except that what you would do in four years, you do in one… And this may explain the high error rate as well as the challenges of keeping your life together. Ron touches on his own bearded look.   Knowledge and fear [18:25] Ron — having been in the security space for so long — has informative tendrils in different governmental and police networks; he shares his take on the current coronavirus outbreak. He also touches on how his business is being impacted on a broader scale.   Information and fear [21:36] Is there greater fear in less informed populations? Understanding risk and probability is an intellectual pursuit of Ron’s, and he shares an analogy he learned long ago when it comes to living in close proximity to potential danger.   Tony and Ron discuss the surge in panic from people who hadn’t been paying close attention to the progression of this virus and the ensuing flocking to stores.   Rationality and fear [28:00] Rational thought can only occur after emotions and fears have been managed. Tony shares examples of how his own coaching practice handles fear.   Ron talks about how working in tech startups provides an edge for governing fear and stress since the field is at the cutting edge, constantly dealing with the unknown and potential failure.   Innate or adaptive [31:33] Coping with the additional stresses of leadership does require a certain kind of person. Ron offers who might thrive in startups and who might burn out of them as well as what it means to have your ass on fire — to viscerally feel the risk that you’re in: “Holy sh*t, the tiger is right there!”   Finding clarity [37:20] From living life 24 hours at a time to begin to build for the longer term and to start writing a life story as opposed to an overwhelmingly fast blur of rinse and repeat cycles: Ron shares how he met Tony and what that relationship brought him in terms of clarity.   How did Tony land at Riot? It’s also the story of why he’s “Agile Tony” and how he got his start coaching leaders. He shares how that experience was filled with both failures and continued success and turned into what he still loves doing today.   The elephant in the room [47:24] Ron and Tony speak to what happens when a company culture is not deliberate, planned out and positively impacting the business outcome. They also touch on the different reactions people have to risk and the way they choose to address or ignore problem situations.   Loss and fear [54:36] Ron’s definition of fear has grown and changed with experience; it’s always associated with loss of some kind but as a leader, his tolerance for risk had increased. Tony offers that taking stock of emotions surrounding a situation can help ground you in the present and give you some perspective — and learning this skill as early as possible would benefit anyone!   Danger awareness [1:00:22] Tony talks about the difference between fear and danger awareness in terms of being able to assess risk and move forward or backing away from a situation.   Processing time [1:02:18] Ron discusses risk assessment burden with an internet latency analogy as well as interesting scientific studies involving the optic nerve and visual processing times of 9-year-olds vs. professional baseball players!   Tony and Ron discuss the acquired and innate aspects of decision making — or learning wisdom — especially in the fight-or-flight world of startups.   Controlling fear [1:10:25] Fear, as we use the term, is an abstraction — we gave danger awareness a name — but when the fight or flight response does occur it should be taken as an opportune moment to stop and assess the situation. Tony speaks to the importance of learning to control fear in order to access this clear decision-making space.   Startup dojo [1:14:36] Martial arts training offers opportunities to train the right decision-making paths in the face of certain situations, Ron ponders where the startup dojo might be that people could train appropriate reactions and be better equipped going in — agile EQ may be the start of an answer.   [1:20:53] Tony wraps up today’s episode and prepares his homework for the next show!   Thanks for tuning in.   Mentioned in this episode Silicon Valley Mythic Quest   Books: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, by Peter L. Bernstein Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb   More about our guest Ron Williams on LinkedIn Subspace   More about your host Tony Wong at Digital Onion Tony Wong on LinkedIn Tony Wong @Agile_Tony on Twitter Tony Wong at Applied Agile Digital Onion | LinkedIn 

Ted Seides, CFA, is the son of a teacher and a psychiatrist. Perhaps by genetic disposition, he is passionate about sharing his insights and investing in people. He is the chief investment officer of Perch Bay Group, a single-family office he joined in 2017 to manage a diversified portfolio of direct and fund investments across asset classes. Ted produces and hosts the Capital Allocators Podcast, which by the by the end of 2018 had reached one million downloads. From 2002 to 2015, Ted was a founder of Protégé Partners and served as president and co-chief investment officer. Protégé was a leading multibillion-dollar alternative investment firm that invested in and seeded small hedge funds. Ted built the firm’s investment process and managed the sourcing, research, and due diligence of its portfolios. In 2010, Larry Kochard and Cathleen Ritterheiser profiled Ted in Top Hedge Fund Investors: Stories, Strategies, and Advice. Sharing the lessons from his experience, Ted authored So You Want to Start a Hedge Fund: Lessons for Managers and Allocators in February 2016. He began his career in 1992 under the guidance of David Swensen at the Yale University Investments Office. During his five years at Yale, Ted focused on external public equity managers and internal fixed-income portfolio management. Following business school, he spent two years investing directly at private equity firms, Stonebridge Partners and J.H. Whitney & Company. With aspirations to demonstrate the salutary benefits of hedge funds on institutional portfolios to a broad audience, Ted made a non-profitable wager with Warren Buffett that pitted the 10-year performance of the S&P 500 against a selection of five hedge fund of funds from 2008-2017. Ted is a columnist for Institutional Investor, wrote a blog for the CFA Institute’s Enterprising Investor, and wrote guest publications for the late Peter L. Bernstein’s Economics and Portfolio Strategy newsletter. He is also a trustee and member of the investment committee at the Wenner-Gren Foundation, an active participant in the Hero’s Journey Foundation, and is a decade rider with Cycle for Survival. He previously served as a trustee and head of the programming committee for the Greenwich Roundtable and as a board member of Citizen Schools-New York. Ted holds a BA in economics and political science, Cum Laude, from Yale University and an MBA from Harvard Business School.   “It was one of those examples that the market can stay rational longer than you can stay solvent, and that really anything can happen. There was nothing about the fundamentals of these assets that would have told you that this could have happened.” Ted Seides   Support our sponsor   Today’s episode is sponsored by the Women Building Wealth membership group, the complete proven step-by-step course to guide women from novice to competent investor. To learn more, visit: WomenBuildingWealth.net.     Worst investment ever Ted chose one of his worst investments ever based on its outcome. In 2002, during his early years at Protégé Partners around the launch of that fund, one of the core investments they were making was in a multi-manager hedge fund portfolio. Within that portfolio, one of the core investments was in a relative-value arbitrage hedge fund called Parkcentral Global Hub. Principled fund group included Perot family It was a group that had spun out of or was included in the family office of the late Ross Perot. And the group had been managing its strategy for a long time very successfully in a kind of value-oriented, relative-value manner with a very long time horizon. There was a tremendous amount of co-investment (a minority investment made directly into an operating company alongside a financial sponsor or other private equity investor, in a leveraged buyout, recapitalization or growth capital transaction). Perot had put around US$500 million into the fund and there were highly skilled people running it. Seides said it was a rare case of an investment management organization run with great business principles. Fund launches in 2002 and grows to nearly 3bn in assets The fund launched to outside investors in July 2002, growing to US$2-3 billion in assets until they closed it to new investors. It continued to progress well under the goal of making 10%-12% a year with relatively low volatility. And they had done that historically. They found new structures and strategies, were very insightful and had good communcations enabling investors to know exactly what was going on. Few blips in Spring 2008 but nothing major But, heading into Spring 2008 the situation became shaky for them. A few things went wrong, but they were within the bounds of their understanding of risk and in the summer and into the fall, they would come by the office and said their largest position was a relative-value trade in the commercial mortgage-backed space. Out of the 2008 crisis, most people remember that subprime residential mortgages blew sky high. But in the commercial mortgage space, if considering the fundamentals, there were apparently few problems in the economy. Serious concerns aroused after fund loses 13% by September’s end But strange things were happening in the capital markets because of the turmoil, especially in September. The fund survived the Lehman bankruptcy in October, but going into November, they had a particular trade where they were going long in some senior debt – commercial mortgage-backed securities. The senior debt was priced as if something like 40% of the underlying commercial real estate would have to default with no recovery at all. And all because of the turmoil that was happening in the markets. It was so bad that the fund managers said it no longer made sense to continue to hedge with the junior debt because it had gone down so much that it was not really hedging anything, so they let all the clients know what was happening. By the end of the month, Parkcentral Global Hub had lost 13% of its value, in part because of commercial mortgage-backed securities, an affidavit from the Bermuda liquidators now says. October takes another 26% out, reducing net-asset value to under US$1.5bn In October, the fund lost an additional 26% of its value, reducing the fund’s net assets to just under $1.5 billion. November darker As November rolled in, the situation got worse. Losses continued early in the month and accelerated beginning in November 12, as the bottom fell out of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. In just one day, November 18, the fund lost $300 million. In that deadly six days in November, his office in New York was saying that they kept putting money into the trade, backing the collateral, but it kept getting worse. For one day that those prices moved, Ted remembered, it was around 1,700 basis points over treasuries. That was the equivalent of something 60% of all of the commercial real estate that underpinned these assets had to go bankrupt with no recovery. Fund’s net asset value goes to less than zero On that great day of loss, all the money in the fund was gone, in fact, more than all the money in the fund. The fund net-asset value (NAV) went to zero. They could have described it as poor risk management, you could have described it as being involved in the drive by shooting. So what what happened, though, was that most of the principals in the organization had all of the their money invested alongside the client and lost all of it. Perot lost maybe $500 million, maybe it was more. But he did decide against putting billions back in the trade to get to the other end, which was the implicit reason why they would be able to withstand turmoil. Events were around the time Madoff was exposed This was all around the same time or a little bit before news about Bernie Madoff emerged. But at least today most of the investors have probably gotten most of their money back with all of this recovery from Irving Picard. But for Ted and his team, they only held a 2%-3% position in the portfolio, and therefore could withstand the hammering. But it was one of those examples that the market can stay rational longer than you can stay solvent. And that really anything can happen. There was nothing about the fundamentals of these assets that would have told you this could have happened, Ted says. “You could have described it as poor risk management, you could have described it as being involved in the drive by shooting … what happened, though, was most of the principals in that organizsation had all of the their money invested alongside the client and lost all of it. Ross (Perot and his family) lost … maybe … $500 million, maybe more.” Ted Seides Some lessons Anything can happen In something you underwrite, in this case an investment management organization that was a great organization that had done everything the right way except for one thing – which was they had leverage and they failed to manage risk in the worst possible moment to be able to withstand the “hundred-year flood” that hit Be very wary of any investment that is leveraged Such a situation can easily lead you to losing control of your wealth and future. Ted talked about how markets can stay rational longer than an investor can stay solvent. He said that not only is this true, but all investors are not immune to this happening. If using leverage in your strategy, you absolutely must understand how you’re going to survive a big storm   Andrew’s takeaways The key lesson is the issue about leverage Overconfidence can creep in and lead to dangerous decision But it’s very human and happens all the time. In the investment field, analysts, researchers and allocators are paid for strong opinions and to “putting their money where their mouth is” and convey belief in their opinion. That can lead to overconfidence, which can creep in despite being years of discipline and one day the self-belief overreaches and the money injected is excessive. It’s then that big losses occur. Diversification was key for Ted While the lack of it wiped out the fund he was investing in, it didn’t wipe out Ted because he had used the diversification technique of sizing his position. Two main risks an analyst should look out for when analyzing companies Leverage Forex If a company has no debt, and no foreign exchange exposure, a huge amount of potential risk is eliminated.     Actionable advice All investors should get a lot more creative on how much worse it could get than the worst-case possible outcome, because again: “Anything can happen.”   No. 1 goal for next the 12 months To figure out how the work he has done on his own podcast can best benefit an investment organization.     Parting words “Andrew, keep this up. It’s a lot of fun and it’s a terrific way of trying to tease out lessons.”   You can also check out Andrew’s books How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market My Worst Investment Ever 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points Learn with Andrew Valuation Master Class - Take this course to advance your career and become a better investor Connect with Ted Seides LinkedIn Twitter Website Podcast Connect with Andrew Stotz astotz.com LinkedIn Facebook Instagram Twitter YouTube My Worst Investment Ever Podcast   Further reading mentioned Larry Kochard and Cathleen Ritterheiser (2010) Top Hedge Fund Investors: Stories, Strategies, and Advice Ted Seides (2016) So You Want to Start a Hedge Fund: Lessons for Managers and Allocators Ted Seides (2006) Let’s Don’t Wait Til the Water Runs Dry, published in the Economics and Portfolio Strategy newsletter, Peter L. Bernstein (ed). FA, is the son of a teacher and a psychiatrist. Perhaps by genetic disposition, he is passionate about sharing his insights and investing in people. He is the chief investment officer of Perch Bay Group, a single-family office he joined in 2017 to manage a diversified portfolio of direct and fund investments across asset classes. Ted produces and hosts the Capital Allocators Podcast, which by the by the end of 2018 had reached one million downloads. From 2002 to 2015, Ted was a founder of Protégé Partners and served as president and co-chief investment officer. Protégé was a leading multibillion-dollar alternative investment firm that invested in and seeded small hedge funds. Ted built the firm’s investment process and managed the sourcing, research, and due diligence of its portfolios. In 2010, Larry Kochard and Cathleen Ritterheiser profiled Ted in Top Hedge Fund Investors: Stories, Strategies, and Advice. Sharing the lessons from his experience, Ted authored So You Want to Start a Hedge Fund: Lessons for Managers and Allocators in February 2016. He began his career in 1992 under the guidance of David Swensen at the Yale University Investments Office. During his five years at Yale, Ted focused on external public equity managers and internal fixed-income portfolio management. Following business school, he spent two years investing directly at private equity firms, Stonebridge Partners and J.H. Whitney & Company. With aspirations to demonstrate the salutary benefits of hedge funds on institutional portfolios to a broad audience, Ted made a non-profitable wager with Warren Buffett that pitted the 10-year performance of the S&P 500 against a selection of five hedge fund of funds from 2008-2017. Ted is a columnist for Institutional Investor, wrote a blog for the CFA Institute’s Enterprising Investor, and wrote guest publications for the late Peter L. Bernstein’s Economics and Portfolio Strategy newsletter. He is also a trustee and member of the investment committee at the Wenner-Gren Foundation, an active participant in the Hero’s Journey Foundation, and is a decade rider with Cycle for Survival. He previously served as a trustee and head of the programming committee for the Greenwich Roundtable and as a board member of Citizen Schools-New York. Ted holds a BA in economics and political science, Cum Laude, from Yale University and an MBA from Harvard Business School.   “It was one of those examples that the market can stay rational longer than you can stay solvent, and that really anything can happen. There was nothing about the fundamentals of these assets that would have told you that this could have happened.” Ted Seides   Support our sponsor   Today’s episode is sponsored by the Women Building Wealth membership group, the complete proven step-by-step course to guide women from novice to competent investor. To learn more, visit: WomenBuildingWealth.net.     Worst investment ever Ted chose one of his worst investments ever based on its outcome. In 2002, during his early years at Protégé Partners around the launch of that fund, one of the core investments they were making was in a multi-manager hedge fund portfolio. Within that portfolio, one of the core investments was in a relative-value arbitrage hedge fund called Parkcentral Global Hub. Principled fund group included Perot family It was a group that had spun out of or was included in the family office of the late Ross Perot. And the group had been managing its strategy for a long time very successfully in a kind of value-oriented, relative-value manner with a very long time horizon. There was a tremendous amount of co-investment (a minority investment made directly into an operating company alongside a financial sponsor or other private equity investor, in a leveraged buyout, recapitalization or growth capital transaction). Perot had put around US$500 million into the fund and there were highly skilled people running it. Seides said it was a rare case of an investment management organization run with great business principles. Fund launches in 2002 and grows to nearly 3bn in assets The fund launched to outside investors in July 2002, growing to US$2-3 billion in assets until they closed it to new investors. It continued to progress well under the goal of making 10%-12% a year with relatively low volatility. And they had done that historically. They found new structures and strategies, were very insightful and had good communcations enabling investors to know exactly what was going on. Few blips in Spring 2008 but nothing major But, heading into Spring 2008 the situation became shaky for them. A few things went wrong, but they were within the bounds of their understanding of risk and in the summer and into the fall, they would come by the office and said their largest position was a relative-value trade in the commercial mortgage-backed space. Out of the 2008 crisis, most people remember that subprime residential mortgages blew sky high. But in the commercial mortgage space, if considering the fundamentals, there were apparently few problems in the economy. Serious concerns aroused after fund loses 13% by September’s end But strange things were happening in the capital markets because of the turmoil, especially in September. The fund survived the Lehman bankruptcy in October, but going into November, they had a particular trade where they were going long in some senior debt – commercial mortgage-backed securities. The senior debt was priced as if something like 40% of the underlying commercial real estate would have to default with no recovery at all. And all because of the turmoil that was happening in the markets. It was so bad that the fund managers said it no longer made sense to continue to hedge with the junior debt because it had gone down so much that it was not really hedging anything, so they let all the clients know what was happening. By the end of the month, Parkcentral Global Hub had lost 13% of its value, in part because of commercial mortgage-backed securities, an affidavit from the Bermuda liquidators now says. October takes another 26% out, reducing net-asset value to under US$1.5bn In October, the fund lost an additional 26% of its value, reducing the fund’s net assets to just under $1.5 billion. November darker As November rolled in, the situation got worse. Losses continued early in the month and accelerated beginning in November 12, as the bottom fell out of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. In just one day, November 18, the fund lost $300 million. In that deadly six days in November, his office in New York was saying that they kept putting money into the trade, backing the collateral, but it kept getting worse. For one day that those prices moved, Ted remembered, it was around 1,700 basis points over treasuries. That was the equivalent of something 60% of all of the commercial real estate that underpinned these assets had to go bankrupt with no recovery. Fund’s net asset value goes to less than zero On that great day of loss, all the money in the fund was gone, in fact, more than all the money in the fund. The fund net-asset value (NAV) went to zero. They could have described it as poor risk management, you could have described it as being involved in the drive by shooting. So what what happened, though, was that most of the principals in the organization had all of the their money invested alongside the client and lost all of it. Perot lost maybe $500 million, maybe it was more. But he did decide against putting billions back in the trade to get to the other end, which was the implicit reason why they would be able to withstand turmoil. Events were around the time Madoff was exposed This was all around the same time or a little bit before news about Bernie Madoff emerged. But at least today most of the investors have probably gotten most of their money back with all of this recovery from Irving Picard. But for Ted and his team, they only held a 2%-3% position in the portfolio, and therefore could withstand the hammering. But it was one of those examples that the market can stay rational longer than you can stay solvent. And that really anything can happen. There was nothing about the fundamentals of these assets that would have told you this could have happened, Ted says. “You could have described it as poor risk management, you could have described it as being involved in the drive by shooting … what happened, though, was most of the principals in that organizsation had all of the their money invested alongside the client and lost all of it. Ross (Perot and his family) lost … maybe … $500 million, maybe more.” Ted Seides Some lessons Anything can happen In something you underwrite, in this case an investment management organization that was a great organization that had done everything the right way except for one thing – which was they had leverage and they failed to manage risk in the worst possible moment to be able to withstand the “hundred-year flood” that hit Be very wary of any investment that is leveraged Such a situation can easily lead you to losing control of your wealth and future. Ted talked about how markets can stay rational longer than an investor can stay solvent. He said that not only is this true, but all investors are not immune to this happening. If using leverage in your strategy, you absolutely must understand how you’re going to survive a big storm   Andrew’s takeaways The key lesson is the issue about leverage Overconfidence can creep in and lead to dangerous decision But it’s very human and happens all the time. In the investment field, analysts, researchers and allocators are paid for strong opinions and to “putting their money where their mouth is” and convey belief in their opinion. That can lead to overconfidence, which can creep in despite being years of discipline and one day the self-belief overreaches and the money injected is excessive. It’s then that big losses occur. Diversification was key for Ted While the lack of it wiped out the fund he was investing in, it didn’t wipe out Ted because he had used the diversification technique of sizing his position. Two main risks an analyst should look out for when analyzing companies Leverage Forex If a company has no debt, and no foreign exchange exposure, a huge amount of potential risk is eliminated.     Actionable advice All investors should get a lot more creative on how much worse it could get than the worst-case possible outcome, because again: “Anything can happen.”   No. 1 goal for next the 12 months To figure out how the work he has done on his own podcast can best benefit an investment organization.     Parting words “Andrew, keep this up. It’s a lot of fun and it’s a terrific way of trying to tease out lessons.”   You can also check out Andrew’s books How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market My Worst Investment Ever 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points Learn with Andrew Valuation Master Class - Take this course to advance your career and become a better investor Connect with Ted Seides LinkedIn Twitter Website Podcast Connect with Andrew Stotz astotz.com LinkedIn Facebook Instagram Twitter YouTube My Worst Investment Ever Podcast   Further reading mentioned Larry Kochard and Cathleen Ritterheiser (2010) Top Hedge Fund Investors: Stories, Strategies, and Advice Ted Seides (2016) So You Want to Start a Hedge Fund: Lessons for Managers and Allocators Ted Seides (2006) Let’s Don’t Wait Til the Water Runs Dry, published in the Economics and Portfolio Strategy newsletter, Peter L. Bernstein (ed).  

Thank you Anna Barber for the intro to today's guest, Michael Barlow ( https://twitter.com/mleebarlow ) , founder and CEO of Fernish ( https://fernish.com/ ). Fernish offers premium furniture rentals that feel like home, delivered and assembled in a week. We discuss how Michael approached validating his idea of furniture rental, figuring out the supply chain, and how they adjusted to shifts in demand for certain products during COVID. A book that inspired Michael is Against The Gods ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471295639?camp=1789&creativeASIN=0471295639&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by Peter L. Bernstein. I highly recommend following Michael on Twitter @mleebarlow ( https://twitter.com/mleebarlow ). You can also follow your host, Mike, on Twitter @mikegelb ( https://twitter.com/MikeGelb ). You can also follow for episode announcements @consumervc ( https://twitter.com/ConsumerVc ). Here are a few questions that I ask Michael - * You originally came from a finance background, what attracted you to innovation and entrepreneurship in general? * Tell me about the aha moment that you had for Fernish and how were you able to validate your idea? * It seems like on the supply chain side of things, renting/transporting furniture would be very complex since the pieces are typically large, you have to store them. How did you manage to get around that in the early days? Also, under the hood, how does your supply chain function? * When I speak with founders, we talk about how when testing ideas, they focus on demand over the supply. And if that idea gets validated (i.e. there is a demand for it) then they go and build it. Was this part of your approach? If so, what were some of your early tactics? * What were some of your early growth levers? * What were some of the challenges regarding COVID? * Has their been a shift in demand towards certain products i.e. office desks, and chairs? * Did you have to make any pivots - whether that's with your supply chain or product offerings? * How did you approach raising capital? * Why did you choose to go through Techstars/an accelerator instead of trying to raise your own round off the bat? * We used to be in the age of optimizing for growth no matter what, now we've shifted as profitability has become what companies want to achieve. How do you think about that balance? * What's one thing you would change about the fundraising process? * Was there an early mistake that you made while building Fernish that changed the way you thought about business strategy or business in general? * What's one piece of advice that you have for founders?

Our guest today is Carlton Fowler, ( https://www.goatrodeocapital.com/about ) Managing Partner of Goat Rodeo Capital ( https://www.goatrodeocapital.com/ ). Carlton invests in the beverage space with some of his invests including lemon perfect, sourced, and one hope. Previously, he led spirits innovation and brand development at E&J Gallo. In this episode we focus our conversation on the change in beverage during covid, how brands are becoming creative and how he sees value add from investors in the space. A couple books that inspired Carlton are Pattern Recognition ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0425198685?camp=1789&creativeASIN=0425198685&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by William Gibson and Against The Gods ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471295639?camp=1789&creativeASIN=0471295639&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by Peter L. Bernstein. Here are some of the questions I asked Carlton: * What initially attracted you to the beverage industry? * You came from an operator background, working at E & G Gallo. What attracted you working with early stage beverage companies and to head into venture capital? * Talk to me about your due diligence process. * What are some of the changes that you have seen when it comes to the beverage industry, specifically during COVID? * What's one thing that you would change when it came to venture capital? * What's your most recent investment and what makes you excited about it? * What's one piece of advice that you have for founders?