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Last week, we heard a former U.S. ambassador describe Russia's escalating conflict with the U.S. Today, we revisit a 2019 episode about an overlooked front in the Cold War — a “farms race” that, decades later, still influences what Americans eat. SOURCES:Anne Effland, former Senior Economist for the Office of Chief Economist in the U.S.D.A.Shane Hamilton, historian at the University of York.Peter Timmer, economist and former professor at Harvard University.Audra Wolfe, writer, editor, and historian. RESOURCES:Freedom's Laboratory: The Cold War Struggle for the Soul of Science, by Audra Wolfe (2018).Supermarket USA: Food and Power in The Cold War Farms Race, by Shane Hamilton (2018).“Association of Higher Consumption of Foods Derived From Subsidized Commodities With Adverse Cardiometabolic Risk Among US Adults,” by Karen R. Siegel, Kai McKeever Bullard, K. M. Narayan, et al. (JAMA Internal Medicine, 2016).The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War, by Robert J. Gordon (2016).“How the Mechanical Tomato Harvester Prompted the Food Movement,” by Ildi Carlisle-Cummins (UC Davis Department of Plant Sciences Newsletter, 2015). EXTRAS:"Is the U.S. Sleeping on Threats from Russia and China?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
Chapter 1 What's The Rise and Fall of American Growth Book by Robert J. GordonThe Rise and Fall of American Growth is a non-fiction book written by economist Robert J. Gordon. In this book, Gordon explores the history of economic growth and productivity in the United States from the late 19th century to the present day.Gordon argues that the period from 1870 to 1970 marked an exceptional era of economic growth and technological progress in the United States. He examines the various factors that contributed to this remarkable expansion, including technological advancements, massive investments in infrastructure, and demographic changes, among others. During this period, American living standards improved significantly, and the economy was transformed by groundbreaking innovations such as electricity, automobiles, and telecommunications.However, Gordon also suggests that this era of rapid growth is unlikely to be replicated in the future. He points out that the productivity growth rate has been slowing down since the 1970s, and the current wave of technological advancements, such as the internet and mobile devices, has not had as transformative an impact on the economy as earlier innovations. Gordon attributes this slowing growth to a variety of factors, including rising inequality, educational shortcomings, and environmental challenges.The book discusses the implications of this slowdown in economic growth for future prosperity and standards of living. It raises important questions about the sustainability of long-term economic growth and challenges the prevailing belief in unlimited progress and innovation.Overall, The Rise and Fall of American Growth provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors that fueled America's economic growth in the past and critically assesses the prospects for future growth. It combines historical analysis, economic theory, and social commentary to offer a thought-provoking perspective on the trajectory of the American economy.Chapter 2 Is The Rise and Fall of American Growth Book A Good BookThe Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon is widely regarded as an excellent book by both critics and readers. With extensive research and analysis, Gordon provides a comprehensive exploration of the various factors that have shaped America's economic growth over the past century. He skillfully delves into different components of growth, ranging from technological advancements to demographic changes, and explains their effects on productivity and living standards.The book offers a thought-provoking perspective on the future of economic growth, questioning whether the American economy can continue to flourish as it has in the past. While Gordon's conclusions may appear pessimistic to some, his arguments are well-supported and provide valuable insights into the challenges faced by the modern economy.However, it is worth noting that The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a dense and scholarly work, which may require an interest in economics and patience to fully appreciate. It contains extensive data, charts, and historical analysis, making it more suitable for those seeking an in-depth understanding of America's growth trajectory rather than a light read.Overall, if you are interested in economics, history, and understanding the factors behind America's economic growth, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is widely considered to be a highly informative and enlightening book.Chapter 3 The Rise and Fall of American Growth Book by Robert J. Gordon Summary"The Rise and Fall of American Growth" is a book written by economist Robert J. Gordon. The book provides an in-depth analysis of the economic growth and development of the
→ The Rise and Fall of American Growth: https://www.bookmarked.club/books/the-rise-and-fall-of-american-growth Sponsor → Stakwork: https://stacksats.how/stakwork Summary The conversation explores the book 'The Rise and Fall of American Growth', which chronicles growth in America over the past 150 years. It begins with an introduction to the topic and the background of the author Robert J. Gordon. The concept of growth and productivity is defined, highlighting the role of GDP and the impact of inventions. The three industrial revolutions are discussed, along with their key innovations. The conversation then delves into the factors affecting growth, including education, inequality, and fiscal debt. The chapters conclude with an exploration of the rise of American growth from 1870 to 1970 and the fall of American growth from 1970 to the present. The conversation covers various topics related to economic growth, inequality, and the future. The guest, Robert J. Gordon, advocates for immigration reform and improved education as solutions to economic challenges. The discussion also touches on the impact of going off the gold standard and the role of money in exacerbating issues. The guest expresses skepticism about the idea that the US going off the gold standard in 1971 has played a significant role in rising inequality. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the potential for a 'special century' and the importance of economic growth. Takeaways - Growth and productivity are measured by GDP and reflect the increase in output per person or per hour of work. - The three industrial revolutions, marked by key innovations, have driven economic growth: steam engine and cotton spinning, electric power and internal combustion engine, and computers and digital technology. - The percolation of innovations takes time, and the impact of new inventions may not be immediately evident in productivity statistics. - Factors such as education, inequality, and fiscal debt can act as headwinds to growth. - The rise of American growth from 1870 to 1970 was driven by the implementation of inventions and increased productivity. - The fall of American growth from 1970 to the present is characterized by slower productivity growth, increased inequality, and fiscal debt.
On this special episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Kelly Ogle and Joe Calnan discuss major events in global and Canadian energy security in 2023, and what to watch for into the future. Host Bios: - Kelly Ogle is CEO of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute - Joe Calnan is a Fellow and Energy Security Forum Manager at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute Clip Guest Bios 1:02 - Kent Fellows, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Calgary and Fellow-in-Residence at the C.D. Howe Institute 8:46 - Michelle Bockmann, Senior Analyst at Lloyd's List Intelligence 16:40 - Morgan Bazilian, Director of the Payne Institute of Policy at the Colorado School of Mines 25:00 - Yves Giroux, Canada's Parliamentary Budget Officer 34:55 - Joe Ingram, CGAI Fellow 41:10 - Amrita Sen, Co-Founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects 49:00 - Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize Winning Author and Vice Chairman at S&P Global What is Joe reading? 1. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War", by Robert J. Gordon: https://www.amazon.ca/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Standard/dp/0691147728 2. "The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World", by Niall Ferguson: https://www.amazon.ca/Ascent-Money-Financial-History-World/dp/0143116177 What is Kelly reading? 1. "The Appollo Murders", by Chris Hadfied: https://www.amazon.ca/The-Apollo-Murders/dp/0316264539 2. "The Duel: Diefenbaker, Pearson and the Making of Modern Canada", by John Ibbitson: https://www.amazon.ca/Duel-Diefenbaker-Pearson-Making-Modern-ebook/dp/B0BZC4CL15 3. "Dominion: The Railway and the Rise of Canada", by Stephen Bown: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/690690/dominion-by-stephen-r-bown/9780385698726 Recording Date: January 10, 2023 Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Joseph Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.
How do you measure the true productivity of a country's economy? What gets missed if the only metric being examined is the GDP? Robert J. Gordon is a professor of social sciences and economics at Northwestern University. His work focuses on the history of labor and capital productivity and has written numerous books, including, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War. Robert and Greg discuss why the GDP doesn't give a full picture of a country's economic growth and productivity, why the years between 1929 and 1950 saw the most rapid growth, and whether or not we'll see another growth spurt in the age of AI. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:Is our productivity running low?37:46: If we compare the forecasts of productivity growth that are baked into the government's budget forecasts and economic forecasts, our productivity over the last nearly 20 years has been running somewhat slower than they're assuming for the future. So, there's room for productivity growth to improve by a substantial amount without really changing the overall outlook for this enormous increase in public debt. That is going to go together with higher interest rates and severely impede the ability of future governments to finance Medicare, Social Security, and the general operations of government.Understanding the US productivity growth09:39: The fact is that the economy was producing well under its capacity in the 1930s, and it's a black box to figure out how much the economy was capable of. But we were producing at full capacity in 1929, and we certainly were in 1948, and so the growth rate between those two years was by far the most rapid that we have had.On measuring total factor productivity09:19: One of the fuzzy dividing lines in measuring total factor productivity is how much of the innovation is attributed to the capital and treated as an increase in the quantity of the capital, thus diminishing that ratio I just expressed. And how much of it comes out as the difference between output and input growth, and that dividing line is somewhat the quality of capital.ChatGPT and the potential job losses for future productivity gains32:34: To interpret ChatGPT and the potential for job losses for future productivity gains, it helps to break down the economy into three groups of workers. One group produces goods in mines, in farms, in factories, and they're producing objects with other objects. They're not involved in creating textual or visual material. So, the impact in the goods sector is going to be fairly minor, certainly compared to the development of automation. Show Links:Recommended Resources:The Good Old Days: They Were Terrible! by Otto BettmannAlexander J. Field's workOpportunity Insights group at HarvardGuest Profile:Faculty Profile at Northwestern UniversityProfessional Profile on National Bureau of Economic ResearchSpeaker's Profile on TEDTalkRobert J. Gordon's WebsiteRobert J. Gordon on LinkedInHis Work:The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War
J. Storrs Hall or "Josh" is an independent researcher and author.He was the founding Chief Scientist of Nanorex, which is developing a CAD system for nanomechanical engineering.His research interests include molecular nanotechnology and the design of useful macroscopic machines using the capabilities of molecular manufacturing. His background is in computer science, particularly parallel processor architectures, artificial intelligence, particularly agoric and genetic algorithms.This episode is filled with techno-optimist verve.Josh wrote an epic book called "Where is My Flying Car - A Memoir of Future Past".The book is the subject of the conversation, for which we're joined by Trey Goff - the CMO of the startup city Prospera, who sees the book as his ideology.The book starts as an examination of the technical limitations of building flying cars and evolves into an investigation of the scientific, technological, and social roots of the economic stagnation that started in the 1970s.The period from 1880 to 1940 brought major technological advances: electricity, electric lights, powerful motors, automobiles, airplanes, household appliances, the telephone, indoor plumbing, pharmaceuticals, mass production, the typewriter, the tape recorder, the phonograph, and radio, and television.Today, in contrast, apart from the seemingly magical internet, life in broad material terms isn't so different from what it was in 1953.Scholars like Tyler Cowen and Robert J. Gordon spoke of "The Great Stagnation".Josh has explosive insights into the history of regulation and technology that show how different our lives could be.At the center of losing out on major new innovations in the world of atoms is nuclear energy. The world not producing enough clean energy at scale to advance in energy-intensive areas such as nanotechnology, air & space travel, and advanced materials.We learn that flying cars are a real possibility, even right now.It's just due to policy changes and a culture of "safetyism" that sometimes deliberately, sometimes inadvertently holds back progress.Is humanity ending up like the "Eloi" in H.G. Well's novel "The Time Machine": lazy, stupid and timid due to the coddling effect of advanced technology?Josh says "No"! Humanity can do better.Human ingenuity is endless, and we can invigorate our passions to reach to the frontiers into new and hostile environments, master the elements through the scientific method and engineer our environments for human flourishing.This episode is a rallying cry to build a better future now!J. Storrs Hall's website: https://autogeny.org/Prospera's website: https://prospera.hn/Niklas on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NiklasAnzingerInfinita Fund Website: https://infinitafund.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/Z4H6UjbubK
The economist Tyler Cowen has argued that growth should be a stubborn attachment for economists. In today's episode you will get an idea of why. We start with Solow who's exogenous growth model is highly famous. From him we learn the power of ideas and how they spread to create growth and property from Romer, and finally the inventor of the carbon tax Nordhaus. This is an exciting episode indeed, and full of great reasons why growth matters, we also talk about the coolest wedding an economist can imagine, chartered cities and why light is more important than you might think. References: Jones, C. I. (2019). Paul Romer: Ideas, nonrivalry, and endogenous growth. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(3), 859-883 Nordhaus, William D. 1997. "Do Real Output and Real Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History of Light Suggests Not." The Economics of New Goods. Edited by Robert J. Gordon and Timothy F. Bresnahan. University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research. 27–70. Nordhaus prize lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/lecture/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/lecture/) Nordhaus banquet speech: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/speech/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/speech/) Romer prize lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/romer/lecture/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/romer/lecture/) Solow prize lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/lecture/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/lecture/) Solow banquet speech: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/speech/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/speech/) Solow 1957 Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function
The economist Tyler Cowen has argued that growth should be a stubborn attachment for economists. In today's episode you will get an idea of why. We start with Solow who's exogenous growth model is highly famous. From him we learn the power of ideas and how they spread to create growth and property from Romer, and finally the inventor of the carbon tax Nordhaus. This is an exciting episode indeed, and full of great reasons why growth matters, we also talk about the coolest wedding an economist can imagine, chartered cities and why light is more important than you might think. References: Jones, C. I. (2019). Paul Romer: Ideas, nonrivalry, and endogenous growth. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(3), 859-883 Nordhaus, William D. 1997. "Do Real Output and Real Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History of Light Suggests Not." The Economics of New Goods. Edited by Robert J. Gordon and Timothy F. Bresnahan. University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research. 27–70. Nordhaus prize lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/lecture/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/lecture/) Nordhaus banquet speech: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/speech/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/speech/) Romer prize lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/romer/lecture/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/romer/lecture/) Solow prize lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/lecture/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/lecture/) Solow banquet speech: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/speech/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/speech/) Solow 1957 Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function
The average rate of labour productivity growth in the 15 nations of Western Europe slowed from five percent per annum in the 1950s and 1960s to less than one percent in the decade ending in 2019. According to Prof. Gordon, the EU-15 performance is catching up to the U.S. in stages, followed by a retardation since 1995. In Prof. Gordon's view, the overall theme is that productivity growth slowdown was due to a retardation in technical change that affected the same industries by roughly the same magnitudes on both sides of the Atlantic. An interpretation will be provided by Prof. Gordon of rapid productivity growth during the pandemic of 2020-21 and the likely trajectory of growth in the 2020s. About the Speaker: Robert J. Gordon is Stanley G. Harris Professor in the Social Sciences and Professor of Economics at Northwestern University. He is one of the world's leading experts on inflation, unemployment, and long-term economic growth. His recent work on the rise and fall of American economic growth and the widening of the U. S. income distribution have been widely cited, and in 2016 he was named as one of Bloomberg's top 50 most influential people in the world. Gordon is author of The Rise and Fall of American Growth: the US Standard of Living Since the Civil War (published in January 2016 by the Princeton University Press). He is also author of Macroeconomics, twelfth edition, and of The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices, The American Business Cycle, and The Economics of New Goods. Gordon is a Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association and a Fellow of both the Econometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Regarding the debate on economic growth there has always been two sides. Some people say that we are now in an era of rapid growth characterized by informatization, digitalization, big data, 5G, etc and our potential is unlimited. Others say that the earth is only so big, and resources are limited. Not only that but people are also living longer, so unlimited development is not realistic. This book follows the American economic growth path, examining various reasons why growth has passed through stages of acceleration and deceleration. It summarizes America's economic journey from 1870 to 2015 from an economic and sociological perspective. The book divides the America's economic journey into three phases: “the Special Century,” the miracle of “the Great Leap,” and a phase characterized by decelerated growth during the modern “Computer Age.” The whole path is summarized in two words, “rise” and “fall.”
En nuestro primer episodio, conversamos con Juan Carlos Echeverry sobre el futuro de la educación. Juan Carlos es un gran comunicador y un profesor memorable. Sus ideas nos sorprendieron porque van más allá del debate tradicional, sugiriendo que el foco de América Latina para afrontar los retos del futuro debería estar en transformar, más que la educación, la pedagogía. Juan Carlos Echeverry habla con autoridad sobre este y muchos temas, gracias su amplia y muy diversa experiencia. Se ha destacado en los sectores público, privado y académico. Ha sido Director del Departamento Nacional de Planeación en Colombia, Decano de Facultad de Economía de la Universidad de los Andes, Ministro de Hacienda y Presidente de Ecopetrol. Es consultor en temas económicos y también autor de una novela, titulada En Sitios más Oscuros. Es comentarista en Caracol Radio sobre temas de actualidad, y comenta los libros que ha leído recientemente. Es doctor en economía de la Universidad de Nueva York, y también hizo estudios de posgrado en Alemania. Vive con su familia en el estado de Maryland, Estados Unidos.Estas son algunas de las referencias que menciona a lo largo del episodio. - Richard Feynman: Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! (Adventures of a Curious Character). Disponible en https://amzn.to/2J2Dsvz- Jared Diamond: Guns, Germs and Steel. Disponible en https://amzn.to/2xTu2Ae- Robert J. Gordon: Rise and Fall of American Growth. Disponible en https://amzn.to/33DH68IEste episodio fue dirigido por Francisco Noguera y Ricardo Pineda. La edición estuvo a cargo de César Ocampo. Pueden seguir a Futuros Posibles en Instagram @futuros.posibles.podcast, y suscribirse a nuestra lista de distribución en www.futurosposibles.co
Guests: Robert J. Gordon - Stanley G. Harris Professor in the Social Sciences and Professor of Economics at Northwestern University. He is one of the world’s leading experts on inflation, unemployment, and long-term economic growth. Joel Mokyr - Robert H. Strotz Professor of Arts and Sciences and Professor of Economics and History at Northwestern University and Sackler Professor (by special appointment) at the Eitan Berglas School of Economics at the University of Tel Aviv. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.AudioPlayer.embed("audioplayer_40", {soundFile:"http%3A%2F%2Fsupplychaininsights.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fpodcasts%2FInterview_with_Robert_J_Gordon_on_American_Productivity-episode_221.mp3"}); At the Supply Chain Insights Global Summit (September 5-8, 2017), Robert J. Gordon, author of the book The Rise and Fall of American Growth, will be speaking on the impact of technology on American productivity. In this interview Dr. Gordon explains how to measure American productivity and the impact of technology on the third industrial revolution. At the conference Dr. Gordon will share what we can learn from the Third Industrial Revolution to apply to the fourth advancement of technology that is coming with the Supply Chain Digital Age. Straight Talk With Supply Chain Insights – Podcast episode #221
We revise the book The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon published by Princeton University Press 2016 Bennett Baumer walks us through the different American economic revolutions cited in the publication. He synthesis the most important information in this article published in the April issue of The Indypendent. To read the article online go to indypendent.org
When phone companies implored U.S. customers in 2003 to text more because they were lagging behind the rest of the world, it was all over. Almost. While we're used to a dizzying array of new apps each month and new "sharing economy" companies such as Uber and AirBnB transform the way we do business, one of the greatest periods of U.S. productivity was already behind us by 2005. The little gadgets we're addicted to now are nothing compared with the invention and adoption of the electric light, indoor plumbing and the automobile. That's according to Robert J. Gordon, author of "The Rise and Fall of American Growth" and a professor at Northwestern University. There's not much on the horizon to change all that, Gordon tells Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss. But take heart: A recession isn't likely anytime soon!