Stephanomics

At Bloomberg, we're always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk. In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek's Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seventeen months after Russia invaded Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians remain scattered around the world, with no end to the war in sight. Many of those who fled are women and children. Unless they return when the fighting is over, some of the damage inflicted on their country's economy may become permanent. On this season's final episode of Stephanomics, Kyiv bureau chief Daryna Krasnolutska explains why women are so critical to Ukraine's recovery. Most men age 18-60 aren't allowed to leave the country, which explains why 68% of Ukrainian refugees are women. Of them, some 2.8 million are working-age. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg Economist Alexander Isakov, who estimates that Ukraine's economy would lose $20 billion a year, or about 10% of its pre-war GDP, should none of them return. The government, which says it needs 4.5 million workers to achieve its reconstruction goals, is working on incentives, including narrowing the gender pay gap, to lure them back. Flanders also chats with Marta Foresti, a senior fellow from the Overseas Development Institute in London, who discusses the importance of refugees (especially women) to their home economies, as well as her experience of working with returnees to Sierra Leone after its decade-long civil war.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The green minerals boom has triggered a new scramble for natural resources across the developing world. From Southeast Asia to Africa, countries rich with raw materials necessary for things like electric vehicle batteries are trying to capitalize on it without falling victim to the “resource curse.” There's a long and inglorious history of commodity-rich economies failing to get rich from their natural wealth. The money pours in from industrialized nations when global demand is high, but when boom turns to bust, they often end up worse than neighboring economies not similarly “blessed.” Those nations are hoping this time could be different. On this episode of Stephanomics, reporter Claire Jiao hears how Indonesia, home to a large chunk of the world's nickel, has led the way by banning the export of processed forms of the metal so vital to the production of EVs. The idea is that instead of exporting its enormous reserves of raw nickel and bauxite, it can turn them into EV batteries, or even EVs themselves, for shipping abroad, thereby kickstarting local manufacturing. So far, it seems to be working. Host Stephanie Flanders then sits down with Jim Cust, senior economist for Africa at the World Bank, and senior reporter Jack Farchy to discuss whether Indonesia has set an example African nations could follow as they look to partake in this new gold rush, and whether pulling it off to the scale will be the exception or the rule.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People in China are blocked from seeing much of what's happening in the outside world. For outsiders, it can be just as difficult to see in. This week, Stephanie interviews Keyu Jin, professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook. Jin discusses what she considers misunderstandings of China's ambitions and goals in the world, and the risks that come with such views. She says that one of the biggest misconceptions is that China is trying to displace the US. What it's really aiming for, Jin explains, is to improve living standards for its middle-income earners. She also discusses the current state of China's economy, its relations with the US and Europe and the skills gap contributing to high youth unemployment. Within China, there's widespread gratitude and deference toward the government, something outsiders often find surprising, Jin says. But she warns this could change if slower economic growth translates into fewer high-quality jobs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Covid-19 was supposed to mean the end of the city as we know it. Buzzing urban centers would give way to boarded-up ghost towns as white-collar employees worked from home in perpetuity. Now, two months after the pandemic's end, it's clear that dystopian vision won't come to pass. But among the best-known cities, winners and losers are emerging. Some have people and riches flowing in while others struggle to recover. On this week's episode of Stephanomics, we start off in Dubai, a popular destination for wealthy Russians who fled when Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine. Bloomberg Television anchor Manus Cranny tells host Stephanie Flanders about the city's massive increases in rent, and in particular his own experience. It's a similar story in Singapore, says Bloomberg Senior Reporter Michelle Jamrisko. As Xi Jinping pushes his “common prosperity” mandate at home, the richest Chinese are looking to protect their assets by pouring money into the city-state. The influx of wealth has in turn turbocharged rents and restaurant prices, all at the expense of a shrinking middle class. When it comes to the losers in this post-pandemic shakeout, look no further than San Francisco. Once the glittering high-tech hotbed of wild wealth and exorbitant real estate, the outflow of people and money exacerbated by the recent tech downturn may have done irrevocable damage, says California Bureau Chief Karen Breslau. Flanders speaks with her and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Justin Fox about how San Francisco's fate compares with other US cities, many of which are managing to climb back.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US economy has proven resilient after more than a year's worth of interest-rate hikes, with a steady drumbeat of recession predictions having been proven wrong. New data released this week continued to point away from a downturn. Still, some forecasters warn a recession might still be coming, and that it could coincide with the 2024 presidential election. On this week's episode, we look at how the current leading candidates for the White House are framing the economy. Bloomberg Senior Reporter Nancy Cook describes the challenge facing President Joe Biden: the economy has thrived on his watch, especially in terms of record low unemployment, but the overhang of persistent inflation weighs heavy on voters' minds. Meantime, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump haven't put forward any economic plans and have largely focused on divisive social issues and the threats posed by China. Then Stephanie sits down with Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, and Bloomberg economist Anna Wong. They discuss how the US economy will evolve leading up to the 2024 vote, and how important it might be in deciding the election. Wong says that, while Biden's signature economic legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law—are investments that will play out in the long term, short-term costs of higher inflation and recession risks may offset the benefits, and even outweigh them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Climate change is fast transforming the planet. Global warming is fueling drought, massive wildfires, rising sea levels and stronger hurricanes. Now scientists and economists are worried about another knock-on effect: faster inflation. On this episode of Stephanomics, we hear from reporter Laura Curtis, who explains how drought has lowered the water level of a lake feeding the Panama Canal, which could in turn boost shipping costs. A similar phenomenon is already playing out in Europe, where low water levels in the Rhine River are making it more expensive to transport key commodities across the continent. Then host Stephanie Flanders chats with Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen and Bloomberg economist Bhargavi Sakthivel about the economic impacts of El Nino, a period of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The system, which scientists say is becoming more frequent and intense thanks to global warming, is already placing upward pressure on prices of agricultural goods like coffee and sugar. That could lead to higher inflation and lower growth in several countries in the tropics and southern hemisphere.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Globalization was once the watchword of Washington. Bill Clinton made it a centerpiece of his economic policy, from the North American Free Trade Agreement to ushering China into the World Trade Organization. But two decades later, America has become increasingly protectionist, pushing strategic industrial policies and trade barriers. Just the other day, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan turned heads when he said "the postulate that deep trade liberalization would help America export goods, not jobs and capacity, was a promise made and not kept." Indeed, the Biden Administration has been touting a new kind of trade policy, one known as "friend-shoring." It encourages friendly nations and their companies to shift manufacturing away from geopolitical rivals like China and toward allies.  On this episode, Stephanie speaks with Mike Froman, who served as the US Trade Representative under President Barack Obama, about how trade policy has evolved since his administration and where it's heading. We also sit down with Senior Editor Brendan Murray, who takes us to Morocco, a country where globalization still holds sway. There, companies from China and Russia are manufacturing auto parts and sending them around the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joe Biden, like so many other presidents before him, put America's re-industrialization at the center of his campaign for the White House. And like his predecessors, he's found that the “Made in America” label remains hard to find. Indeed, more countries are trying to cut their reliance on imports from China, the global giant of manufacturing, citing everything from geopolitical tensions to human rights abuses and supply-chain snarls. But the reality is they still can't seem to break away from the “world's factory floor.” And when they try, it doesn't work out well. On this episode we take you around the world to see what's standing in their way. Bloomberg reporter Jeannette Neumann tours clothing factories in Los Angeles, the heart of America's apparel industry, and struggles to find tags that don't say “Made in China.” In India, Bloomberg editor Ruchi Bhatia and reporter Vrishti Beniwal explore toy stores in New Delhi, and find the selection lacking thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's effort to cut out goods from his neighbor to the north. Finally, we have more from Milken Institute Chief Economist William Lee and his chat with host Stephanie Flanders. They discuss how realistic it really is for companies to even try to diversify their supply chains beyond China.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The idea that artificial intelligence would someday replace humans in certain jobs is nothing new. Now, as some companies make plans for this new reality, it's still an open question as to whether AI should be feared--or embraced as a technology that will make the world a better place. On this episode, Daron Acemoglu, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tells Stephanie that while it may be right to be concerned, people shouldn't be scared. They discuss a new book co-authored by Acemoglu, Power and Progress, and whether AI will yield benefits similar to those conferred by other technological and scientific advancements throughout history. The key to making AI work in the long run, Acemoglu says, is that workers maintain a role and a voice through protections like unions and government regulation. Without those guardrails, he warned, AI may indeed sideline more humans from the workforce.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US debt ceiling is all anyone in Washington (and increasingly elsewhere) can talk about these days. For months, politicians have been in a stalemate triggered by Republican demands for spending cuts as the price for paying America's debts. With next week seen as the point at which the Treasury may have to start issuing IOUs, any deal to avert a catastrophic default is going to come down to the wire.  Recent sticking points are tied to potential spending caps, the GOP's insistence on slashing domestic spending for several years and the Biden administration's desire for more limited cuts. On this episode of Stephanomics, Senior Editor Chris Anstey and reporter Josh Wingrove give us the state of play, from explaining what exactly the debt ceiling is to laying out some scenarios of how things progress from here.  Stephanie then sits down with economist Stephen King to talk about government debt levels more broadly, and if we should be worried given how high interest rates have climbed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some of the world's largest economies are struggling with a response to the rising influence of China and Russia. Specifically, how the ambitions of those two authoritarian nations tend not to conform with Western ideals. And nowhere is this more relevant than in Japan, for whom China, Russia and indeed North Korea are neighbors. Those tense relations and their economic implications are top of mind at this week's Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan, where we take you for this episode. From a city that suffered the unspeakable destruction of nuclear weapons, Bloomberg's Yoshiaki Nohara explains how the nation is now trying to balance its longtime aversion to war with the growing threats in its backyard. Stephanie then sits down with Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, and Rory Medcalf, who leads the National Security College at the Australian National University. They discuss not only Japan's strategic role in the Indo-Pacific region, but also China's significance in the global economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation rates may be slowing broadly across Europe, but you wouldn't know it after a trip to the grocery store or dining out. And there's only so much governments can do to help their people cope. In this week's Stephanomics podcast, Bloomberg reporter Alessandra Migliaccio takes you across the continent to see how much more it costs to make some of the world's most famous dishes, from France's coq au vin to pizza margherita in Italy. Politicians have tried to limit the pain of high prices, but their efforts have barely made a dent. Bloomberg has been tracking custom food indexes around the world for close to a year, including the traditional English breakfast. Reporter Irina Anghel tells us about the latest reading, which showed the average basket of ingredients—including eggs, bread and milk—spiked almost 23% in the past year. Host Stephanie Flanders then chats with Joe Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, about the outlook for global food prices.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The banking crisis that began in March continues to rapidly evolve. What started with the collapse of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank went on to claim Signature Bank and push a vulnerable Credit Suisse into the arms of UBS. This week, another midsize California lender that couldn't find its footing also dropped, as First Republic was acquired by JPMorgan. In the first episode of this season, we catch you up on the turmoil in the financial sector and how it's straining US small businesses that rely on these banks for capital. Bloomberg reporter Mike Sasso takes us to Florida, where a couple that's trying to create a space for people to eat and drink while playing the fast-growing sport of pickleball is struggling to get an affordable loan. The topic dominated discussions at this week's Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. Host Stephanie Flanders sat down with Milken Institute Chief Economist William Lee, who warns that cutting off small businesses from borrowing would hit the labor market almost directly. However, he says that's exactly what the Federal Reserve wants, as illustrated by a cycle of rate hikes that, after Wednesday's latest increase, may finally be at an end.  And finally, Flanders speaks with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who said the banking crisis highlights the complacency of regulators when it comes to financial risk. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all might one day be replaced by robots or ChatGPT. But for now, businesses still need humans to make computer chips or staff daycare centers. Problem is, too few workers in the US are actually working and too few people are having babies. That's a major concern for American industry, policymakers, and most immediately, tech giant Intel Corp. The company is trying to find 7,000 people in central Ohio to build its new semiconductor facilities and 3,000 more to staff them.On this, the season's final episode of Stephanomics, we dig into the super-tight US labor market, which is expected to get even tighter as more of the nation's skilled workers retire. First, senior reporter Shawn Donnan visits Licking County, Ohio, future home to a $20 billion chip plant that will pay workers an average annual salary of $135,000. The Biden administration hopes Intel's project sparks a wave of manufacturing projects in strategic industries like semiconductors and electric vehicles. Then reporter Ben Steverman offers some insight into the roughly 2.6 million US workers who've gone missing since the pandemic began. A recent study by Harvard University economist Raj Chetty suggests many of them waited tables, cut hair and staffed gyms in relatively affluent neighborhoods. When these wealthy residents slashed their spending and stayed home as Covid-19 bore down, it created a wave of business closures and job losses. Many of those workers, Steverman explains, never returned. Meanwhile the nation's working-age population is growing at its slowest pace since 1960, and total population actually dropped in at least 24 states, including Ohio. Host Stephanie Flanders follows up on America's demographic challenges with University of Maryland economist Melissa Kearney, also director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group. The US birth rate, at just under 1.7 children per woman, is well below the so-called replacement rate of 2.1, and the share of working-age adults who are actually working is falling, says Kearney.   Long term, fewer workers means fewer ideas and less specialization, she warns, all of which could mean lower income and living standards in the US and globally. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“My fear is that we are sleepwalking into this world. But hey, here is Davos! Wake up! Do the right thing!” That's the rallying cry of Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, imploring the global elite at this week's World Economic Forum to be vigilant as an almost unrivaled list of perils weighs on the world's leaders. Recession looks set to sweep across the globe, nations are leaning more heavily on coal amid tight energy supplies and the cost of servicing debt is soaring. Getting things wrong, Georgieva says, means dragging the “world into a place where we'll be all poorer and we would be less secure.” In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders chats with a star-studded list of international economists, finance ministers and corporate chieftains from Davos, Switzerland. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, explains why finance ministers and central bankers are caught in an almost impossible dilemma: High inflation requires central bankers to raise interest rates to cool the economy, even as governments spend more to help consumers hurting from soaring energy and food costs. Longer term, real interest rates may stay high unless countries can get more targeted with their relief programs, instead of spreading assistance universally, argues Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The US overspent during the pandemic, partly because “every constituency got a share of the spending simply because they couldn't make choices,” Rajan says. Next, Flanders has a decidedly more upbeat chat with Nandan Nilekani, chairman of Indian tech giant Infosys Ltd. With news that China's population has declined for the first time in decades, India is set to become the world's most populous country. What's more, Nilekani sees the country benefiting from manufacturers seeking an alternative to China, spooked by the latter nation's repeated factory shutdowns amid its Covid-zero policy. Per capita incomes may grow from $3,000 now to $15,000 in the next 25 years, and “that's much more than a middle-income country,” Nilekani says. Finally, Nela Richardson, chief economist at US-based payroll and business outsourcing firm Automatic Data Processing Inc., says real wages have declined across the world recently, even if nominal wage gains have created a myth that workers are “in the driver's seat.” Businesses would benefit from paying workers a living wage, which despite the apparent expense actually results in better productivity and lowers costs, Richardson tells Flanders. “Will inflation moderate enough and wages stay solid enough that workers actually benefit from lower inflation? We don't know that yet,” Richardson says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Frustrated by prices at the grocery store? People in countries with advanced economies who have been grousing about single-digit inflation have nothing on Argentina and Turkey. There, inflation is above 90% and 60%, respectively. In the words of one tourist in Buenos Aires, carrying enough cash to pay for a flight leaves one feeling like a bank robber—with a stack of pesos as thick as a brick. With new consumer price data on Thursday, the US is getting a better idea where inflation is headed there. But as it reopens, China remains a wild card for the whole world.  In this week's episode of Stephanomics, we look at what's driving prices up in two of the world's inflation hot spots, and when prices may finally cool there and elsewhere. First, reporter Patrick Gillespie details the alternately quirky and harrowing state of Argentina's currency. For tourists, using it is a relatively minor inconvenience. Because of strict government currency controls, travelers can get a far better exchange rate through non-bank sources like Western Union (and on the black market) than by going through Argentine banks. So, there are endless lines of tourists at Western Union locations, and it's made the country something of a laughingstock: Brazilian soccer fans recently tore up near-worthless pesos to mock their Argentine rivals. Of course, Argentines are faring much worse. The poverty rate has soared from 25% to 40% in recent years. In the words of one nurse, “a pair of shoes is half my salary.” Meantime in Ankara, an inflation rate of 65% is actually an improvement from the 85% price increases the Turkish citizenry faced a short while ago. Reporter Beril Akman shares the dubious economic strategy pursued by the nation's central bank and President Recep Erdogan. Whereas other nations are feverishly slashing interest rates to cool their economies and bring down inflation, Turkey is doing the opposite: keeping rates low and raising the minimum wage. The fallout? An Ankara flower shop merchant shares with Akman how electricity costs are so high he's stopped using his refrigerator. Finally, host Stephanie Flanders zooms in on Turkey with Bloomberg economist Selva Bahar Baziki, and zooms out to look at the global picture with Chief Economist Tom Orlik. Baziki explains that while inflation is taking a toll on the Turkish people, “mystery money” flowing in from Russia is helping to soften the blow, at least for now. Orlik says global inflation peaked at around 10% in the third quarter of last year, and it should fall to 5% by the end of this year. The big risk is that growth in China will take off now that it's shedding its “Covid zero” restrictions. If so, that could cause inflation to go in the wrong direction again, Orlik said.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If it feels like the US relationship with China is a tinderbox waiting to explode, chalk some of it up to political expedience. Leaders on either side of the Pacific have played the blame game for years, faulting each other for their troubles while failing to enact necessary reforms at home, says economist and China scholar Stephen Roach. Meantime, these “false narratives” have built up so much animosity that a new Cold War has emerged, he says. The fight, as Senior Editor Chris Anstey explains, potentially spans everything from rules governing the internet to the most mundane facet of consumerism. On this first Stephanomics episode of the new year, we feature a double shot of brewing economic and political conflict between the US and its Western allies on one side and China on the other. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Roach about his new book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives. Things didn't have to be this bad, says Roach, a former chief economist for Morgan Stanley and now senior fellow at Yale Law School. Years ago, the US and China regularly held big economic and strategic forums. Nowadays, Chinese officials have Zoom calls, or Joe Biden and Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of a G20 summit, accomplishing “nothing,” Roach says. What happened? Roach says the deterioration of US-China relations stems from a zeal for blaming the other side for one's own shortcomings. US leaders routinely blame China for the large trade imbalance favoring the Chinese, Roach says. To be sure, China is the biggest source of the imbalance, but countries run trade deficits because they fail to save. “And when you don't save and you want to grow, you import surplus savings from abroad, and you run massive current account or balance of payments deficits,” Roach says. In China, leaders know they need to rejigger their economy to reduce dependence on exports and investment while bolstering domestic consumer consumption. But it's easier just to blame the US for constraining its growth, Roach says. In a lighter segment, Anstey explains a growing rift between the US and China. He does so by way of the lowly desiccant, those small packets of silica gel that keep moisture out of everything from new sneakers to electronics. Last year, China decided the world needed a new production standard for desiccant packets, part of a much larger effort to influence standards on everything from desiccants to internet protocols. The latter would give Beijing a larger say in how things are made globally. Ultimately, US representatives helped kill the new desiccant standard, much to the delight of sneaker, textile and food companies who figure one desiccant is as good as the next. Still, the fight over production standards is heating up, and where moisture-reducing packets are low-risk, cybersecurity experts worry more about China's efforts to influence internet standards.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hosted by Bloomberg Opinion senior executive editor Tim O'Brien, Crash Course will bring listeners directly into the arenas where epic business and social upheavals occur. Every week, Crash Course will explore the lessons to be learned when creativity and ambition collide with competition and power -- on Wall Street and Main Street, and in Hollywood and Washington.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A push for peace in Ukraine, a recovering China and good news for US consumers may be in the cards.Will China keep moving beyond its "Covid-zero" policy in the face of a massive infection wave? When and how will Russia's war on Ukraine end? Will Donald Trump really go ahead with his US presidential campaign next year? Groundhog Day won't arrive in the US until February, but until then the Stephanomics podcast has assembled a crack team of prognosticators rivaling Punxsutawney Phil himself to give a glimpse into 2023.In this annual look-ahead edition of the podcast, host Stephanie Flanders delves into the future with Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, and three Bloomberg experts, Chief Economist Tom Orlik, Washington Bureau Chief Peggy Collins and London-based TV anchor Francine Lacqua. First, with inflation and interest rates dominating economic headlines, Orlik gives a somewhat reassuring outlook for the US. Price hikes will fall rapidly from their perch above 7% in 2023, but they'll remain high enough that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening the money supply for now, Orlik says.In US politics, Trump's bid for a second term has gotten off to a slow start. Facing multiple criminal investigations and diminishing party support, some are wondering if his heart is really in it. However, since he's announced that he's running, we'd better assume the Republican might be on the ballot in 2024, even if potential rivals like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis don't clear a path for him, Collins said. The man who defeated Trump in 2020, President Joe Biden, has his own challenges next year now that the GOP controls the House of Representatives. Collins sees Biden circumventing a deadlocked Congress by making prolific use of executive orders, as many of his predecessors have done in the past.Across the Atlantic, Grant predicts the French, Italians and Germans, joined by the US, will eventually urge Ukraine to cede territory to reach a peace agreement, despite the tens of thousands of its citizens killed by Russia in its war. While some Eastern European nations are taking a hardline stance against the Kremlin, including pushing for regime change, Biden and his allies foresee having to work with Russia over the long term, Grant says, and may take a more diplomatic approach. Meantime, the continent has been spared a full-on energy crisis, in part because of a mild European winter and a large supply of natural gas in storage, Lacqua says. That could change, though, with the European Union's new cap on gas prices. Energy importers may choose to send their natural gas elsewhere and cause prices in Europe to soar, Lacqua warns.China currently faces a national crisis as coronavirus cases flood hospitals and threaten to kill more than a million people. It's a public health catastrophe that was triggered by Xi Jinping's sudden reversal of his "Covid-zero" policy. But in 2023, that turnabout may have Beijing's desired effects: After the infection wave recedes, Orlik predicts China's economy may finally turn the corner. He sees the country growing by 5.1% next year, with the risk being that it grows too quickly and puts a strain on the world's commodity supplies. For now, the US and Europe have been somewhat at odds over China, with the US more concerned about Beijing's accumulation of power and the threat to US security. Europe may be forced to side with its US allies, Grant says. "The more we get into a sort of new Cold War, the more inevitably the Europeans, however reluctantly, are forced to take sides and will take sides on the American side," he says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thirty years after the Cold War ended, a new one of sorts is emerging between China and the West, a leading economic scholar asserts. As a muscular China seeks to refashion trade and geopolitical organizations in its own image, the US and many of its allies face a key challenge: keeping Beijing on board with trade pacts and efforts to slow global warming without ceding ground on democratic freedoms. In this special episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders talks economics and geopolitics with Paul Tucker, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England and author of the new book, Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order. Years ago, world leaders could set their monetary, national security and human rights policies independently, but nowadays all of those things are interconnected and everything is more complicated. This new reality was evident when the Group of Seven leading economies, responding to the Kremlin's war on Ukraine, froze Russian currency reserves held in Western banks, Tucker says. Tucker predicts that developing nations will eventually topple the existing world order, shaping one in which the US, Europe and Japan no longer call all the shots. In this new iteration, international trade and diplomatic entities will have to be completely remade. But Tucker says that's still a few decades away, because while China is already a world power, India and a few other developing nations remain a ways off. For now, the US will enjoy a “lingering status quo” in global finance as issuer of the world's premier reserve currency, but global trade, cross-border investment and everything else will see more jostling for power, something between a “superpower struggle” and a “new Cold War.” Tucker sees China trying to influence global trade and politics much more in coming years, a real concern for the West since Beijing tends to prioritize Communist Party control over civil liberties. World leaders will need to walk a fine line when dealing with Beijing, he says, working with China on pressing global issues while distancing themselves on others. “I think the big thing is China is too powerful” for the US and its allies to tell it how to reorder its society, Tucker tells Flanders. Still, the West should “should find common cause” where it can.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's evidence the Federal Reserve may have finally gained the upper hand in its war against inflation, a potential relief not only for US investors but also real estate agents 8,000 miles away in Hong Kong. The central bank's year-long rate-hike campaign has stymied America's housing market as well as that of the Asian financial hub, and people on both continents will be glad to see the back of it.  This week, we explore how global challenges like inflation, rising interest rates and worker shortages are moving markets in three continents. First, Chief US Economist Anna Wong tells host Stephanie Flanders that, while inflation appears to be slowing in the US, it's too early to tell if the Fed has won the war. Too many risks remain in the global economy, including Russia cutting its oil production or China's reopening sending commodities prices soaring.  What appears more clear, Wong says, is that someone may have gotten a heads-up on this week's surprising US inflation report. A minute before the Consumer Price Index numbers went public, someone traded heavily on Treasury futures. "So, by being a bit early, before everybody gets the same data, somebody is making a lot of money with that move,'' she says.  Next, we travel to Hong Kong, home to one of the world's priciest property markets. Reporter Enda Curran and producer Yang Yang visit a 33rd-floor apartment that just sold for $3.2 million -- a relative bargain for a unit with a view of the famous Happy Valley Racecourse. In a better market, it might have fetched almost 10% more, the unit's real estate agent said. While China's restrictive "Covid zero" policy may be partly to blame, so too is US monetary policy. Since Hong Kong's currency is linked to the US dollar, Fed rate hikes ricochet across the city's system. And just as US housing prices are cooling off, economists say prices here could fall 30% from their peak. Finally, reporter Alessandra Migliaccio shares how Italy's legendary fashion companies are struggling to persuade young people to make 1,000-euro boots. The nation's youth unemployment rate is almost 24%, but roughly one in every two job postings in the luxury industry goes unfilled, according to trade group Altagamma. New Fendi Chief Executive Officer Serge Brunschwig is on something of a crusade to reverse the trend and get Italian youth to take up the craft. Still, it's no easy sell. In the words of one 18-year-old who's learning shoemaking, ``People say, `Oh, you make shoes? That's a bit useless.'"See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the rest of the world raises interest rates to battle inflation, Japan curiously is clinging to low rates to raise wages and finally move past its long battle with deflation. But as Tokyo tries to hold the line, the fastest inflation in decades is spooking a country unaccustomed to it. And the “decoupling” of the US and China, along with Russia's war on Ukraine, are also raising tough questions for a historically pacifist nation whose biggest export market is governed by Beijing, but whose national security has long depended on Washington. This week, we devote our entire Stephanomics podcast to Japan, delving into its economy, its ties to China and the US and its efforts to stay on friendly terms with both. First, reporter Yoshiaki Nohara brings us the noisy scene inside the Toyosu Market, the world's largest wholesale fish market. There, businesses face a dilemma: costs of materials are rising at a 9.1% clip, but consumer inflation is running at a more modest 3.6%. So, wholesale fish merchants, restaurants and other businesses are eating some of the inflation for fear of alienating a Japanese public that's used to prices falling, not rising.“We really wonder whether customers will keep coming back if we raise prices,” one businessman tells Nohara. That reluctance to boost prices, though, is creating a bit of a vicious cycle for Japan. Worker wages are stuck and won't rise until businesses can pass along more of their rising prices to consumers. However, consumers won't accept higher prices until they see higher wages. For now, the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance are trying to force wages up by keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels—even if the yen craters, too.Next, host Stephanie Flanders, who's in Tokyo this week, chats with reporter Isabel Reynolds about the way Japan is being drawn into global conflicts and its delicate efforts to keep everyone happy. This week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ordered an increase in defense spending that could strangely put his country almost on par with Russia. Meantime, Japan finds itself caught between its loyalty to the US and its crucial trading ties with China, Reynolds says. The US has been signaling it's getting more aggressive toward China on trade issues, and while Japan has been reluctant to take sides, it may be forced to follow America's lead if things escalate, she says. Finally, Flanders chats with Takehiko Nakao, a former senior official with the Ministry of Finance, about whether Japan is finally ready to shed its years-long deflation, as well as the nation's need to ensure its own national security in light of the threat from China while also maintaining economic ties with Beijing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe might just avoid what had been a widely predicted, Kremlin-induced energy crisis this winter, thanks to a surprisingly large stock of natural gas. But are the continent's efforts to conserve giving a bah humbug to the holidays? Some of Europe's best-loved Christmas markets are shutting their holiday lights earlier to save electricity or even banning them outright. Even worse, Frankfurt's famous market is—perish the thought—forgoing heated toilets. In this episode we delve into the energy challenges facing Europe as it works to replace natural gas cut off by Russia. First, reporter Bastian Benrath visits with retailers in Frankfurt's famed Christmas market, where cutbacks to the city's large holiday light displays threaten to sap some of its magic and give shoppers less reason to turn out. Other cities like Zurich, Berlin and London also have trimmed holiday display hours or reduced their size, and Paris is turning off the lights at the Eiffel Tower an hour early. What really annoys retailers about this Scrooge-like behavior is that keeping the lights on may expend less energy than powering and heating the markets themselves. As Benrath reports, “in many places, cutting the Christmas lights might actually be more about saving face than actually about saving energy.” In a follow-up discussion, host Stephanie Flanders talks European energy with Maeva Cousin, Bloomberg's senior euro-area economist, and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas. The continent appears ready to confront the winter without mass shortages of gas, thanks in part to forecasts that were overly pessimistic, reduced demand from China and relatively mild European weather, Cousin says. Still, Blas warns that the continent isn't out of the woods yet. In the short term, a harsher winter than forecast could still lead to blackouts. In the long term, Europe's high energy costs could persuade companies to relocate to places with cheaper costs, like Texas. Finally, reporter Colum Murphy reflects on the protests over China's “Covid zero” policy. The plight of residents stuck in lockdowns there has come into stark focus. While images of jubilant crowds at World Cup soccer games flicker on TV screens, “at home in China the people are living in strict conditions,” Murphy says. And for President Xi Jinping, the protests are a huge embarrassment, coming “just after receiving the backing of the whole party.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in the days when bands like Led Zeppelin or The Who toured America, teens lined up overnight at ticket booths, hoping for great seats when the window opened. As time went on, the queue moved to the telephone and ultimately online. All the while, one company increased its grip on the live-event market. That company is Ticketmaster.  But that could change thanks to Taylor Swift. Having waited years to see her live again, millions of fans were blocked by a combination of crushing demand, technical breakdown and the ascendance of bot-buyers who funnel tickets to a secondary market that charges sky-high prices. (In the 20th century, they were called scalpers.) As reporter Augusta Saraiva explains, this consumer calamity infuriated Swift's fans, many of whom are swimming in cash saved up during the pandemic and desperate to spend it, regardless of the shaky economic landscape. This strange state affairs already has a name: “Swiftonomics.” Lawmakers have seized on the popular outrage, uniting with fans against what many have long alleged to be Ticketmaster's monopoly power. Host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg industry analyst Eleanor Tyler about how the debacle, and its growing political exploitation, may be the tipping point for increased antitrust regulation that finally breaks Ticketmaster's spell over the live event marketplace. Then we dive headlong into a different thicket: how recycling doesn't work as advertised. Consumers may feel better about mass consumption because there's a blue bin for everything, but the hard truth is they're fooling themselves. Most of the plastics, clothes and other items they seek to recycle wind up in landfills or dumped on the developing world. Along the shoreline of Accra, Ghana, what locals call “dead white people's clothes” can be found in piles up to six feet high.  Reporter Natalie Pearson explains that while fast-fashion chains like H&M and Zara encourage recycling, only a small fraction of their clothes will ever be remade into new items. Bloomberg recently surveyed the problem in Accra, where some 40% of the imported clothes end up as trash, and in the Indian state of Gujarat, where roughly one-third have no use. Finally, Flanders sits down with Bennington College Senior Fellow and visiting faculty member Judith Enck, a US Environmental Protection Agency official during the Obama administration, to discuss just how broken the recycling system is, and how it could be made to work better.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Buckle up. Global financial leaders warn that the current era of expensive money is likely to stick around for at least another year, and maybe longer. Easing up on interest rates now would only embed high inflation in people's assumptions, and "that's where it becomes very long-lasting," says former UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber. In this special edition from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, three experts in banking and monetary policy share with host Stephanie Flanders why central bankers will be battling inflation in the short term as well as the long. In the US, there's little doubt the Federal Reserve will bump up interest rates again this year, says Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. "For 2023, the question is more about how long are you going to keep these rates at the levels that they've moved them to. And we see a need to keep it at over 4% for all of 2023 to be able to bring inflation down durably,'' Gopinath said. Globally, changes in the supply chain and the transition to a greener economy will drive up energy costs and could lead to structurally higher inflation, said Davide Serra, chief executive of asset manager Algebris Investments. As usual, the poorest are most in jeopardy. Already, about 60% of low-income countries are in high-debt distress, Gopinath said, and while a systemic debt crisis has yet to materialize, she warns these are "very risky times."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors were floored when China started cracking down on homegrown tech giants like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. in late 2020. They shouldn't have been, argues Kendra Schaefer, an expert on Chinese tech policy with Beijing-based Trivium China. For almost 20 years, the Chinese Communist Party has struggled to understand how its sprawling internet and financial technology industry fit with a socialist market economy, and things finally boiled over two years ago, Schaefer says. Increasingly, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his party want technology firms to meet "state-directed goals," she says. In this special edition from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, we dive into the complexities of Chinese economic policy. One of the more recent challenges for investors and foreign businesses operating in China is a lack of good intelligence, Schaefer tells host Stephanie Flanders. There's been an "exodus" of Chinese policy experts since the pandemic began, she says, partly because of restrictions on travel inside the country. Schaefer herself recently relocated to the US from Beijing. For now, many foreign companies have been confused by recent aggressive moves out of Beijing and powerless to do much about it. While investors were befuddled by new regulations on China's big tech firms, behind the scenes the country was increasingly uneasy with their power and apparent lack of interest in Communist Party objectives. Instead of "disrupting pizza delivery," tech giants should focus more on developing high-end computer chips, Schaefer says, citing the opinion of party leaders.  Meantime, manufacturers have seen production grind to a halt at the slightest spread of Covid-19. For sure, some companies have talked about mitigating risk and diversifying outside of China. However, leaving altogether is hardly an option for many. Duplicating the country's supply chain would take 10 years, so "people are just doing their best to hedge their bets," Schaefer says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the past few decades, the world's economic and political leaders were spoiled by relatively low inflation and minimal borrowing costs, a supercharged economy in China driving demand and generally modest geopolitical tension. But as we know, all of that has changed. With inflation soaring, Chinese growth slowing and Russia waging war on Ukraine, Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik contends the pillars that long underpinned rising prosperity have shifted. This week, the podcast is coming to you daily from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, where corporate and political leaders are discussing vexing issues like sustainability and the fragile supply chain. In today's edition, Orlik shares with host Stephanie Flanders why the current challenges will play out over years, instead of months. First, even if inflation in the US ticks down to 4% by mid-2023, that will still be "way outside the Federal Reserve's comfort zone," Orlik says. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he'll raise interest rates until inflation subsides, but the risk is he'll ease up if unemployment gets uncomfortably high, Orlik warns, since any improvements in inflation could reverse. The second pillar, China's previous annual growth rate of almost 10%, may settle in closer to 4%, and even that could be too optimistic, says Orlik. Finally, while Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden lowered the temperature between the two nations on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, left unresolved was the US effort to restrict the sale semiconductors to Chinese customers.  On that note, during one of the forum's sessions Tuesday Senior Minister of Singapore Tharman Shanmugaratnam urged restraint on the part of both the US and China. Tariffs do no one any good, he said, while nations should protect their own national security without trying to limit other nations' economic growth. ``You can't prevent China from emerging as a major player in the global economy and in the global technology space," Shanmugaratnam told Flanders.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Having children isn't only expensive, but it also puts a serious dent in your social calendar. Data show many single, childless women in the US are traveling freely and earning more money, including more than their single, childless male counterparts. But when too many people forgo kids, it raises questions about the future workforce and whether it will be able to adequately fund benefits for the elderly. Increasingly, nations are grappling with how to encourage people to have children while enabling them to live their lives as they wish. In this episode, we explore the subject of birth rates from two very different angles, and from opposite ends of the globe. In the US, editor Molly Smith shares the story of Anna Dickson, a 42-year-old from New York who's traveled to Alaska, Switzerland and Anguilla in the past year. It's something she probably couldn't have done if she had kids, she says. Likewise, a growing number of American women are making the same choice to forgo children, and they're reaping economic benefits. As of 2019, single women with no children had an average of $65,000 in wealth, or $8,000 more than similarly situated men, Smith finds. Stephanie later chats about birth rates and government policy with Isabel Sawhill, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. The total cost of raising a child in the US now exceeds $300,000, and that doesn't even include soaring college costs, Sawhill says. Despite those expenses, Congress has been lax in passing legislation to support families, she says. What's more, states with the most restrictive abortion laws also tend to be ones with the weakest social safety nets. In the Philippines, reporter Siegfrid Alegado says there's a different dilemma, given that it has one of the highest birth rates in Southeast Asia. Women there have 2.5 children on average, which is far higher than in many advanced nations. This threatens to exacerbate poverty among the urban poor and in the countryside, Alegado says. And any effort by new President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to encourage women to use family planning faces a distinct challenge, namely that the largely Catholic country has historically frowned on contraception. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Voters in Brazil just took a leftward turn in electing former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, ousting the far-right populist incumbent. Next week, polls show US voters may move in the opposite direction, dealing a blow to Democratic President Joe Biden and his party. This week's Stephanomics episode explores the economic and political winds in two of the world's largest nations. First, Flanders talks US midterms with Anna Wong, Bloomberg's chief US economist, and reporter Nancy Cook. Overall, the US economy is functioning better than it appears to those focusing on inflation, with a strong job market and high balances in bank accounts, Wong says. Yet, high prices have a way of making consumers feel things are gloomier than they are, and that's not good for Democrats. And if Republicans seize control of one or both houses of Congress, Cook notes that will spell the end of meaningful economic legislation from the Biden administration until the end of the term. Next, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro explains the challenges facing Lula after his defeat of Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil has seen progress this year on inflation, with rates falling from 12% to an expected 5.6% next month. However, economists note the improvement is less impressive than it seems, generated in large part by tax cuts instead of real changes in the economy. Meantime, the new president will be under pressure to deliver on campaign promises to cut taxes for the poor, increase them for the rich and provide a minimum income level for the most needy. In a follow-up discussion, analyst Richard Back of XP Investimentos in Brazil shares with host Stephanie Flanders why he thinks Lula is likely to propose moderate economic policies, despite his progressive reputation. With many acolytes of Bolsonaro still in Brazil's National Congress, Lula knows he cannot be "radical or revengeful," Back says. International investors see the new president as someone who "will make distortions, but he's not the guy that will blow everything."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ahead of next month's crucial US midterm elections, Democrats would usually be counting on the support of labor unions, historically a key constituency for the party. And unions are having a moment in this late pandemic era, with successful organizing drives among Starbucks baristas and Amazon warehouse workers. But despite President Joe Biden's efforts to woo them, many union members are showing a lack of enthusiasm for Democrats that may undercut the party's bid to keep control of both houses of Congress. In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, reporter Katia Dmitrieva provides a dispatch from the traditional union stronghold of Macomb County, Michigan. Biden, who promised to be the most pro-union president ever, has followed through to an extent by regularly touting their importance while creating a labor task force, enacting its proposals and helping secure a deal that may yet avert a damaging railroad strike. Still, some workers in this Detroit-area county say they hoped for more. Democratic efforts to raise the federal minimum wage struck out in a sharply divided Congress, and the PRO Act, legislation to strengthen collective bargaining, has stalled. In the words of one Starbucks barista, who helped unionize her store, the Biden administration's efforts have been "a little bit performative." Then Stephanie speaks to University of California, Berkeley economist Bradford DeLong about his new book, Slouching Towards Utopia. DeLong argues that the 20th century essentially started in 1870, a technological turning point after which production was rapid enough that (at least theoretically) we could bake a large enough economic pie to provide for all. The fact that, in the real world, everyone doesn't have enough is a symptom of our failure to distribute goods and services equitably, DeLong observes. Getting in the way of that goal as well are human foibles including a desire to distribute wealth to their children and a related disdain for inheritance taxes, as well as abhorrence of people who appear to be getting a free ride, he says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As Xi Jinping embarks on his third term as China's president, the world's most populous nation has lost some of the zeal for growth, experimentation and global collaboration that defined it two decades ago. In its place, both Xi and China are focusing on security above everything else, argues Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik. Today, Beijing is "fighting with the US, fighting against pandemics, trying to secure what it has rather than open up and explore new opportunities," Orlik says. Everyone else is left trying to figure out how to cope with this less-freewheeling China. On this week's Stephanomics, we delve into the present and future of China's relations with the rest of the world following the Chinese Communist Party Congress. First, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Orlik about what a third term of Xi means. It's arguable China isn't in immediate danger of slipping into bad governance, and that--for all the economic turmoil of its "zero Covid" policy--China has done a better job protecting citizens from the coronavirus than the West. In the long term, though, there are dangers. Vital positions in China's central bank or its Ministry of Finance could be staffed by old-guard bureaucrats instead of dynamic reformers, Orlik says. Next, reporter Carolynn Look and editor James Mayger share how Europe's own relationship with China is fraying over reports of Chinese human rights abuses and anger over aggressive trade tactics against Lithuania. Still, for all the handwringing, few European companies show signs of scaling back investments in China. Finally, we reflect on an alarming speech by Scottish-born historian Niall Ferguson at a recent Group of 30 conference. He argues that, while everyone's worried that the 2020s will see a repeat of the inflationary 1970s, we may be fortunate if that's all that happens, given the prospect of economic calamity and global war.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If the combination of inflation, Russia's war on Ukraine and a surging dollar don't send the world into recession, disastrous policy mistakes surely could. That's the increasingly gloomy outlook among some who gathered in Washington this week for meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Institute of International Finance. One pessimist, Martin Wolf, a longtime columnist at the Financial Times, predicts a deep downturn in Europe, one that includes the UK. That country has been dragged down by a leadership team Wolf calls “mad, bad and dangerous.” This week's episode delves into the dicey economic and political climates enveloping three continents. First, Wolf joins host Stephanie Flanders to discuss Europe at the IIF's annual membership meeting, where he unloads on UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng for their panned efforts to enact tax cuts—which created chaos in the British bond market and sent the pound plunging. Beyond the UK's borders, natural gas prices that have soared thanks to the Kremlin's war will pull Europe into contraction, Wolf said. But there's a brighter scenario, according to Flanders. If it's a mild winter and natural gas prices fall faster than expected, Europe could end up with too much gas. Then, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro details how politicians across Latin America are struggling to avoid protests over inflation that's reached double digits in some nations. Already, people have blocked highways in Panama, rioted in Ecuador and demanded state assistance for the poor in Peru. Finally, we hear from reporter Colum Murphy, who reveals how the Chinese Communist Party tries to keep foreign journalists in the dark. The party holds its congress in Beijing next week for the first time in five years, and Murphy will be looking for the smallest clues that party members still support President Xi Jinping. In a country where few dare speak out, Murphy said reporters glean what they can from the level of applause to Xi's speech, which lines get the most attention and whether the party gives him another official title to the three he already holds.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The UK's politics and policies have always been a bit quirky. But international investors have long trusted that the country would, in the words of prominent British economist Malcolm Barr, see itself from point A to point B. Lately, those investors could be forgiven for calling that premise into question. A series of unforced errors by new Prime Minister Liz Truss and her financial team have shaken confidence in Britain's leadership at a time when its public is reeling from soaring energy and mortgage costs. In the first episode of this season's Stephanomics podcast, we deliver a triple dose of UK turmoil. First, Bloomberg UK political editor Kitty Donaldson details Truss's arguably terrible debut. Donaldson spent the week at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, where some of the prime minister's fellow Tories are "hopping mad" after tax cuts proposed by Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng spooked financial markets and sent the pound to its lowest level since 1985. In an embarrassing U-turn, Truss had to scrap her plans to cut the 45% tax rate on top earners. Next, Stephanie Flanders talks with Barr about what the market chaos means for the UK (both now and later) as well as its trading partners and investors. Head of European economics for JPMorgan Chase & Co., Barr argues that some of the guardrails that have steered British politicians toward sound, orthodox economic decisions in the past have fallen away. An independent central bank, a proficient civil service and functioning parliamentary oversight have all been undermined to the point that it's "hard to imagine a similar set of errors having been made by any incoming administration over the last 15 to 20 years." Finally, Bloomberg Senior Editor Brendan Murray takes us to Liverpool, where dockworkers say they're missing out as the port city bustles with tourists and expensive new soccer stadiums. They're staging a strike to demand higher pay amid soaring inflation and interest rates, and for now, have the sympathy of the public.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Young people unable to buy homes because of stratospheric price increases are cheering the downturn in some housing markets around the world. But they'd better be careful what they wish for: Frothy housing prices, empty office buildings and even a refusal to pay mortgages by many Chinese have the potential to turn a global economic slowdown into something much worse. In this season's final episode, we explore the confounding real estate market, where prices in many countries have reached unsustainable levels despite a global pandemic. First, reporter Maria Paula Mijares Torres relates the struggle many low- and middle-income Americans face following rent increases averaging 14% nationwide, with some places like Miami seeing a 41% spike. About 8.4 million people in the US are behind on rent payments, and with the end of many Covid-induced eviction moratoriums, advocates for the poor fear a surge of people will be made homeless. Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah crunches price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to determine which housing markets are the frothiest. Topping his list are New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Australia and Canada, with the US coming in seventh. While the subprime-fueled financial crisis is still fresh in some people's minds, better mortgage quality and the growth of fixed-rate mortgages means "there is some hope that we are not going to see the worst of this," Shah says. Stephanie talks global real estate risks with John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and author of "The Fearful Rise of Markets." The commercial real estate market is "probably the single greatest cause for concern," Authers says, particularly in New York. For developers there, a sharp increase in the supply of commercial real estate in recent years, a steep drop in occupancy rates and rising borrowing costs have created a very tricky situation. Meantime, he sees China navigating its way around a domestic property crisis without triggering a global financial crisis, though not without risks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite all the highfalutin advances in automation and just-in-time inventory, Covid-19 has still managed to upend the world's supply chains. But all this pandemonium may be a dress rehearsal for future chaos, courtesy of challenges such as political unrest and the climate crisis, warns one author who's tracked the global flow of goods. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the problems plaguing the retailers, warehouse operators, truckers and shippers who labor to get widgets from factory floors to your doorstep. First, reporter Augusta Saraiva explores why everything from baby formula to Teslas can still be hard to find in the US, even though the epic West Coast container ship backlog has eased. In part, consumers are to blame since they've continued buying at levels far beyond what analysts had expected, given 9.1% inflation and fears of a potential recession. Meantime, importers are fighting over scarce capacity on trucks, ships and in warehouses, creating additional backlogs. One company was so spooked by delays last year that by April it already had 600 containers of artificial Christmas trees waiting at the Port of New York and New Jersey. In a follow-up discussion, Stephanie talks about how supply chains got so fragile with Christopher Mims, author of "Arriving Today," which traces advances allowing for same-day delivery.  Mims argues that efficient supply chains that were developed before Covid-19 struck weren't battle-tested for pandemics, wars and extreme weather. While unionized years ago, truckers today are largely non-unionized, and as a result earn about two-thirds less in real terms than truckers did 40 years ago. They are also burning out quickly from 14-hour days, Mims says. Alternately, a unionized longshoremen workforce has resisted automation, creating some of the world's least efficient ports. Eventually, supply chains will have to shorten, Mims says, with corporations bringing production in-house or nearshoring it to neighboring countries. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dispirited by pandemic lockdowns and a massive real estate crisis, today's young Chinese workers are dreaming less about becoming super-rich entrepreneurs and more about the workaday lives of bureaucrats. Their new distaste for private-sector jobs has caught the attention of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which is trying to change opinions and recruit for private-sector manufacturing jobs that are going begging. In this week's episode of “Stephanomics,” reporter Tom Hancock discusses the unrest brewing among China's youth. Many have newly minted degrees and a growing number have embraced anti-capitalist idealism, exacerbating a mismatch between the jobs that are available and the jobs they actually want. Meantime, younger workers see the country's state-owned enterprises as more stable than privately-owned ones amid Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, creating intense competition for public-sector jobs. The upshot is the jobless rate among China's youth is likely to hit 20%, which has alarmed President Xi Jinping's government. Host Stephanie Flanders talks to Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik about the outlook for the world's biggest country. He says China likely has been overstating its growth for years, giving critics reason to question how big its economy actually is right now. But China's leadership has proven it can develop that economy, and “it would be a big mistake for us to underestimate how big they will likely become in the next 10 or 20 years,” Orlik says. And, Flanders also talks worker wages with Rachel Reeves, who as the UK's Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer is the chief economic voice of the opposition Labour Party. It's a risky topic to address since Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey got lambasted last winter for suggesting workers forgo seeking pay raises because they might be inflationary. Reeves wouldn't say what a reasonable increase for workers would be, given ongoing discussions over pay by UK authorities, but suggested the trick to giving everyone a raise is boosting the economy.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The global appeal of Italy's fashion, food and sports cars long ago proved that the country's businesses have few equals when it comes to marketing abroad. But selling Italians themselves on the merits of the nation's economy has been a bigger challenge. Italy's politicians, central bankers and academics contend the global capital of style can't reach its full potential until it persuades more of its own citizens to seek employment. In this week's episode of “Stephanomics,” reporter Alessandra Migliaccio explores why 2.6 million Italians who could be looking for work aren't. Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco discusses how the country has one of the lowest labor force participation rates in Europe, and that demographic trends aren't likely to make things better. The number of Italians between 15 and 64 is expected to fall by 5 million over the next 15 years, with many of those remaining living in the nation's economically disadvantaged South. To be sure, other countries have seen workforce challenges throughout the pandemic. But Italy faces unique structural problems, Rosamaria Bitetti, an economist and lecturer at Luiss University in Rome, tells host Stephanie Flanders. First, Italians tend to spend more time in school and away from work, partly because the nation's university system encourages students to linger, Bitetti said. Other challenges include a dearth of childcare providers and a growing elderly population that relies on younger generations for care. Finally, economist Nouriel Roubini (nicknamed Dr. Doom for his often ominous predictions) lives up to his billing as he warns that the US, UK, euro zone and other advanced economies have little hope of avoiding recession. During a talk at the recent Qatar Economic Forum, Roubini said the combination of Russia's war on Ukraine, inflation, a Chinese Covid-zero policy that's hurting supply chains and loose monetary and fiscal policies suggests “a situation similar to the 70s.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Supreme Court's decision last week to overturn the federal right to an abortion will have profound effects on American women. And while prime ministers and presidents of the UK, France, Belgium and New Zealand criticized the ruling as a setback for women's rights, it's actually part of what observers call a global retrenchment when it comes to gender equality. In this week's episode we explore the economic and societal fallout of the end of Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling holding that there is a Constitutional right to abortion, and how it fits with that worldwide trend. First, reporter Katia Dmitrieva shares the story of Jane, a Honduran immigrant living near Dallas who induced an abortion through pills she obtained from a friend through the mail, a practice prohibited in Texas even before last week's decision. Jane (not her real name) answers phones for a construction company that doesn't provide paid time off or health benefits. She has neither the time, nor money to care for a child. Reverend Daniel Kanter, senior minister at the First Unitarian Church of Dallas, has called efforts to restrict abortion “a war on the poor.” Next, host Stephanie talks with Ngaire Woods, dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, about how many countries are rolling back protections for women's rights. Even developed nations with robust laws, including the US and UK, are seeing declining rates of prosecution for rapes, Woods says. Meantime, women politicians are often subjected to a level of personal attacks on social media rarely endured by their male colleagues. Finally, reporter Claire Jiao shares how some Southeast Asian nations (among others) are trying to make the remote working trend more permanent. While many travelers would love to log into work from the beaches of Bali, they or their companies have feared the potential tax consequences. Jiao finds that Thailand is creating a long-term visa for remote workers that frees them from any tax obligations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the US, UK and other wealthy nations grouse about the prospect of stagflation and risk of recession, people in some emerging nations are facing more perilous questions about how to find medicine to stay alive. A financial crisis gripping Sri Lanka's 23 million people threatens to spread across the developing world and sweep up hundreds of millions more. This week, we explore profoundly different economic climates. The first are emerging markets exemplified by Sri Lanka and burdened with pandemic-related debt, double-digit inflation and food shortages; the second is Qatar, an already rich petro-state that's getting richer thanks to a global energy crisis. Reporter Sudhi Ranjan Sen surveys the chaos in Colombo, where protesters angry with 40% inflation and days-long waits for fuel and cooking gas are demanding the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In the words of one Sri Lankan woman who was unable to find pharmaceuticals for her parents: “It's really hard to see somebody die without medicine, because you have the money, you don't have a place to buy the medicine.”  For the wider world, the risk is that Sri Lanka's financial crisis spreads to other developing nations that also face high debt levels, rising interest rates and weakening currencies. Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg's chief emerging markets economist, counts five countries most at risk of following in Sri Lanka's footsteps: Tunisia, El Salvador, Ghana, Ethiopia and Pakistan. Lenders to Sri Lanka stand to lose half of their investment, Daoud tells host Stephanie Flanders, but it's unclear how the island nation will treat its debts to China. In the past, China has been unwilling to join multilateral agreements to write down debt. But what happens if other lenders forgive much of Sri Lanka's debt, while the nation makes good on what it owes China? Finally, correspondent Simone Foxman relays the remarkable turn of events in Qatar, which this week hosted the Qatar Economic Forum. Until very recently, analysts questioned the wisdom of Qatar's plan to boost its liquefied natural gas exports by 60%, at a cost of $30 billion. Where analysts figured Qatar was overestimating demand, Russia's war on Ukraine has European nations lining up for Qatari energy. Meantime, the Persian Gulf nation is readying its stadiums ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Doha, set for November and December. By one estimate, the nation has pumped $350 billion into badly needed infrastructure and other improvements ahead of the games. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US inflation is at a 40-year high and the UK is effectively in recession as demand slows for Chinese-made goods. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, though addressing the British economy, could have been speaking for the whole world when he said in a recent interview that “we're going to have a difficult period, and we've got to be absolutely clear with people it is going to be difficult, and the government cannot solve every problem.” On the heels of a massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, this week's episode of “Stephanomics” tackles the bumper crop of trouble facing the globe's central bankers—not to mention finance and trade ministers. First, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik, who says the Fed's 75 basis point hike in interest rates was necessary to help cool inflation, but it doesn't address the root causes of spiraling prices. To do that, the Fed would have to persuade Saudi Arabia to boost oil production, Russia to stop blocking Ukraine's wheat exports and Taiwan to produce more semiconductors. What's more, the Fed's move is likely to boost borrowing costs for emerging nations and likely won't prevent a US downturn, Orlik says. While it may duck one this year, a recession by 2023 “is going to be pretty hard to avoid.” Next, correspondent Lizzy Burden discusses why the UK may want to brace for a sustained downturn rather than a short one. Consumer confidence has declined to levels last seen in the 1970s and the housing market is cooling. So even if Britain avoids two quarters of contraction, Burden says, “almost every other economic metric is screaming slowdown.” Finally, reporter Enda Curran reports on how Chinese manufacturers are also feeling the pinch from inflation and rising interest rates faced by their US and European customers. While it hardly qualifies as a trade recession since consumers are still spending, Chinese manufacturers such as Prime Success Enterprises, a maker of pop-up swimming pools for dogs, warn that demand is drying up.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Much of the appeal of McDonald's comes from the chain's consistency. A cheeseburger in the US or a McSpicy Chicken in India should taste the same every time. But what if a business had wildly different outcomes depending on which leader was making decisions? Renowned psychologist Daniel Kahneman calls this variability “noise,” and suggests controlling it is key to ensuring the best decisions get made. In this week's episode, Stephanie interviews Kahneman, a best-selling author and professor emeritus at Princeton University, and Olivier Sibony, a professor of strategy at HEC Paris, about their new book, “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment.” (Their co-author is US legal scholar Cass Sunstein of Harvard Law School.) Kahneman and Sibony argue businesses often wrongly assume their decisionmakers will make similar judgments given similar circumstances. Kahneman relates an experiment he conducted with an insurance firm and dozens of its underwriters. It's fair to predict underwriters would reach similar conclusions about a case's risk and put a similar dollar value on it, right? Wrong. Kahneman found judgments often varied by 50%, or five times the divergence one would reasonably expect. Silencing that noise often means adopting good decision “hygiene,” the authors said. Many job interviews start with employers having an initial impression and spending the rest of the interview justifying it. Instead, companies should use structured interviews with standard questions that might help disprove false impressions, Kahneman said. And while many firms use artificial intelligence to weed out job candidates, they're likely doing themselves a disservice, Sibony said. Too often, the algorithms themselves are faulty, he said. “My worry is that companies are using this mostly to save time and money, not to actually improve the quality of their decisions,” Sibony said. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.