Podcasts about Canadian Global Affairs Institute

Interview recorded - 28th of September, 2026On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Rory Johnston. Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.During our conversation we spoke about the current situation in the oil markets, China's impact, why the supply crisis is worse than it appears, reshaping the energy market and more. I hope you enjoy this conversation. 0:00 - Introduction1:28 - Overview of the Oil market?5:51 - China's impact15:12 - Other factors supporting oil prices16:59 - Refined products & Diesel24:51 - Other solutions?28:38 - Gas market?31:12 - Reshaping the energy market?38:48 - Pricing outlook45:21 - One message to takeaway?Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg's Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank's energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank's executives and clients, and sat on the bank's senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors. Rory Johnston - X - https://x.com/Rory_Johnston?lang=enCommodity Context - https://www.commoditycontext.com/WTFinance - Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Yemen's Houthi rebels have further complicated any chance at restoring global security and trade in the Middle East, after taking control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and Yemen's Red Sea coastline. They've since attacked numerous Saudi Arabian ships trying to pass through, as well as launched drone attacks into country. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has asked US President Trump for help, but Trump has ruled out US airstrikes, rather offering intelligence and other supports. Host Caryn Ceolin speaks to Peter Bates, a former Canadian Foreign Service Officer and Fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, to discuss what the Houthis are after, what Iran has to gain, and whether or not Trump will rethink the US' involvement. We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or @thebigstory.bsky.social on Bluesky Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:  $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation The Global Refined Product Crisis Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Michelle Leslie about how Canada's nuclear strategy can be leveraged for export. // Guest: - Michelle Leslie is an energy advisor and policy strategist working at the intersection of government global capital market. Notes: -"Canada's Nuclear Export Moment" https://www.cgai.ca/pp_canada_s_nuclear_export_moment // Reading recommendation: - "Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity", by Peter Attia and, Bill Gifford. https://www.amazon.ca/Outlive-Longevity-Peter-Attia-MD/dp/0593236599 // Interview recording Date: September 10, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Gary Doer and David Jacobson to discuss the current state and future of Canada–U.S. relations, including trade, border security, diplomacy, North American economic integration, and the changing nature of the U.S.–Canada relationship. // Guest bios: - Gary Doer is a former Premier of Manitoba and Canada's Ambassador to the United States. -David Jacobson is a former U.S. Ambassador to Canada under President Barack Obama. // Recommended readings: - "Narritve of Empire" by Gore Vidal https://www.thriftbooks.com/series/narratives-of-empire/39097/?srsltid=AfmBOoptzN-bVXNyI-jTmC4EnzhX0RPG5wMN9urmSNaHR-bJosC23cL8 // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: September 10, 2026 Release date: September 14, 2026

On this episode of Defence Deconstructed, David Perry sits down with Michael Cabral to discuss his recent publication titled "Canada and Strategic Competition in the Electromagnetic Environment". // Guest bios: - Michael Cabral is a fellow at the Canadian Maritime Security Network and a fellow at the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network. // Host bio: David Perry is a President and CEO at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: September 3, 2026 Release date: September 11, 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Siân Pascoe about the role of data in understanding what's happening in Canadian energy and the broader economy. // For more information on the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers Data Hub - visit Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers https://www.capp.ca/en/data-hub/ // Guest: - Siân Pascoe is Vice President research and data at the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. // Reading recommendation: - "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail", by Ray Dalio. https://www.amazon.ca/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/dp/1982160276 // Interview recording Date: August 27, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Brian Clow to discuss the lessons from Canada's original CUSMA negotiations with the Trump administration and what they mean for Canada's approach to the agreement today. // Guest bios: - Brian Clow served as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's lead on Canada–U.S. relations after President Trump's election and played a pivotal role in the renegotiation of NAFTA. // Recommended readings: - "A Certain Idea of America: Selected Writings" by Peggy Noonan. https://www.amazon.ca/Certain-Idea-America-Selected-Writings/dp/0593854772 Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: August 28, 2026 Release date: September 7, 2026

The Herle Burly was created by Air Quotes Media with support from our presenting sponsor TELUS, as well as CN Rail.Greetings, you curiouser and curiouser Herle Burly-ites! Back in July, the Wall Street Journal ran a striking series on how Europe is quietly rethinking its arrangements with the world to counter a changing, increasingly predatory United States. And surprisingly, named Mark Carney as one of the leaders pushing Europe in that direction, pointing back to his Davos speech and his idea of "variable geometry" alliances replacing the old hub-and-spoke reliance on Washington. We want to explore these themes: what does it means for institutions like NATO and the G7 to become secondary to newer, looser alignments? How does the Western world meet the challenge of China going forward? And what does all of this mean for Canada's economy and its place in the world?To dig into it, we bring in two brilliant people today: Jennifer Welsh and Colin Robertson.Jennifer Welsh is a four-time guest of the pod, Rhodes Scholar, co-founder of the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict. Currently, the Director of the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University.And making his first appearance, Colin Robertson. He served as a Canadian diplomat for over 30 years. He helped negotiate the original Canada/U.S. Free Trade Agreement and NAFTA. Currently, he's a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and host of its Global Exchange podcast.They dig into why countries from Europe to Australia to South Korea are hedging their bets on America, what "variable geometry" actually looks like in practice, whether the G7 and G20 are still fit for the world we live in, and some genuinely concrete questions too. Like whether Canada should still buy the F-35, and why Mexico deserves to be treated as a real ally rather than a partner of convenience. A fascinating, wide-ranging conversation about what's replacing the old international order, and Canada's surprising role at the centre of it. Stay with us for the hour. Thank you for joining us on #TheHerleBurly podcast. Please take a moment to give us a rating and review on iTunes, Spotify, or your favourite podcast app.Watch episodes of The Herle Burly via Air Quotes Media on YouTube.The sponsored ads contained in the podcast are the expressed views of the sponsor and not those of the publisher.

On this episode of Defence Deconstructed, David Perry sits down with BGen Christopher Horner and BGen (Ret'd) Mike Adamson to discuss the Enhanced Satellite Communications Project and other development in the Canadian space. // Guest bios: - Brigadier-General Christopher Horne is the Commander of 3 Canadian Space Division. - Brigadier-General (Ret'd) Michael Adamson is the Senior Director of Defence Strategy and Business Development at Telesat. // Host bio: David Perry is a President and CEO at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Recommended Readings: - "Sapiens/Homo Deus" by Yuval Noah Harari : https://www.amazon.ca/Sapiens-Homo-Deus-Boxed-Set/dp/0735253404 // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: September 1, 2026 Release date: September 4, 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Kelly Ogle about oil prices and some of the major Canadian and international energy news and updates. // Guest: - Kelly Ogle is Chairman of Era and Board Member at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Reading recommendation: - "The Guns of August", by Barbara W. Tuchman www.amazon.ca/Guns-August-Pulitzer-Prize-Winning-Outbreak/dp/0345476093 - "The Odyssey", by Homer www.amazon.ca/gp/aw/d/B0FQJCNBWK // Interview recording Date: September 1, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Joseph Ingram and Augusto Lopez-Carlos to discuss their latest work titled "Seven Policy Priorities for Cooperative Global Leadership.” // Guest bios: - Joseph Ingram served as the World Bank's Special Representative to the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. - Augusto Lopez-Claros is an Executive Director of the Global Governance Forum. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: August 24, 2026 Release date: August 31, 2026

On this episode of Defence Deconstructed David Perry sits down with Dr. Alexander Salt to discuss his most recent work titled "Strengthening Canada–Japan–South Korea Cooperation on Integrated Air and Missile Defence". // Guest bios: - Alexander Salt is a Fellow, Senior Researcher, and Managing Editor at the Canadian Global Affairs institute. // Host bio: David Perry is a President and CEO at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Recommended Readings: - "1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed" by Eric H. Cline: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/0691208018 // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: August 26, 2026 Release date: August 28, 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Bryan Gould about the business case for the proposed west coast pipeline and the importance of balancing strategic priorities and fiscal responsibility. * Bryan Gould: "A veiled bet: The West Coast Pipeline and the Case Canadians hHaven't Been Shown" https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/a-veiled-bet-the-west-coast-pipeline-and-the-case-canadians-havent-been-shown/ --- Guest: - Bryan Gould is an Executive Chairman and Founder of Aspenleaf Energy. --- Reading recommendation: - "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. https://www.amazon.ca/Superforecasting-Philip-Tetlock-Dan-Gardner/dp/0804136718 --- Interview recording Date: Aug 19, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Laura Dawson, Eric Miller, and Chris Sands to discuss the breakdown of the Canada-US trade negotiations, and what it means for CUSMA, and the future of North American economic relations. // Guest bios: - Laura Dawson is Executive Director of the Canada-US Future Borders Coalition and an alumnus of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute Board of Directors. - Eric Miller is a Canadian Global Affairs Institute Fellow and the President of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group. - Chris Sands is Director of the Centre for US-Canada Studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: August 24, 2026 Release date: August 24, 2026

Trade can create economic opportunities, but its benefits are not always distributed equitably. Inclusive and gender-responsive trade policy seeks to address these imbalances by considering how trade rules and outcomes affect women, Indigenous Peoples, small and medium-sized enterprises, and other underrepresented groups. In this episode, Dr. Judit Fabian, visiting researcher at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, and founding member of the World Trade Organization Gender Research Hub, examines Canada's experience incorporating gender equality into trade policy. Her intervention outlines several policy tools, including Gender-based Analysis Plus, dedicated gender chapters and provisions in trade agreements, and the gradual use of soft-law approaches to introduce, test, and strengthen inclusive trade measures. She also reflects on Canada's longer-term policy development in this area and the importance of maintaining progress across changes in government. The episode also looks at regional mechanisms that support cooperation on trade and gender, including the Global Trade and Gender Arrangement and the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity. These examples demonstrate how collaboration across countries and policy forums can contribute to trade systems that are more inclusive, sustainable, and responsive to inequality. This episode was recorded during the 22nd ParlAmericas Plenary Assembly and 10th Gathering of the Open Parliament Network, titled “Parliamentary Leadership for Shared Prosperity: Advancing Trade, Innovation, and Security in a Changing World,” held in Ottawa, Canada, from May 19 to 22, 2026. Please find the meeting content available at the following link.

On this episode of Defence Deconstructed Charlotte Duval-Lantoine sits down with Peter Kasurak to discuss his most recent work "The Unequal Dialogue: Canadian Civil-Military Relations, 1950-2025". // Guest bios: - Peter Kasurak is an independent researcher focused on military history and defence studies, and an adjunct professor in the Division of Continuing Studies at the Royal Military College of Canada. // Host bio: Charlotte Duval-Lantoine is the Vice President, Ottawa Operations and a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Recommended Readings: - "The Story of the Arab Legion" by John Glubb: https://www.amazon.ca/Story-Arab-Legion-John-Glubb/dp/B0GF24RT7K // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: August 19, 2026 Release date: August 21, 2026

A petition with more than 230,000 signatures continues to make its way across Canada in hopes of ousting the US Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra. Signatories believe the diplomat has further strained Canada-US relations by adding fuel to President Trump's annexation threats, and allege he's made "repeated interventions in Canadian political discourse inconsistent with diplomatic protocol." Host Caryn Ceolin speaks with Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat and Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. They discuss whether the petition could hold any weight in Parliament, and what Canadians want out of a potential replacement.  We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or @thebigstory.bsky.social on Bluesky Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Jacquie Hoornweg about Canada's nuclear energy strategy and its role in advancing the country's global ambitions. For more on Canada's Nuclear Energy Strategy, visit https://natural-resources.canada.ca/energy-sources/nuclear-energy-uranium/nuclear-energy-strategy-canada --- Guest: - Jacquie Hoornweg is a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and an Executive Director of Ontario Tech University's Brilliant Energy Institute --- Reading recommendation: - Upcoming book titled "An Academic Prespective on the Role of Nuclear in Canada's Energy Future" by Jacquie Hoornweg. --- Interview recording Date: Aug 17, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Lawrence Herman, Martha Hall Findlay, and Thomas D'Aquiino to discuss their most recent work "Middle Power Leadership: Seizing the Business Opportunity". // Guest bios: - Lawrence Herman is an international trade lawyer and frequent contributor on public policy issues. - Martha Hall Findlay is the director of the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary. - Thomas D'Aquino is founding chief executive of the Business Council of Canada and a member of the Order of Canada. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Recommended Readings: - "The Prime Ministers: Canada's Leaders and the Nation They Shaped" byJ.D.M. Stewart: https://www.amazon.ca/Prime-Ministers-Canadas-Leaders-Nation/dp/1998365778/ - "The Dollar a Year Men: How the Best Business Brains in Canada Helped to Win the Second World War" by Allan Levine: https://www.amazon.ca/Dollar-Year-Men-Business-Brains-ebook/dp/B0FS86WLXQ - "38 Londres Street: On Impunity, Pinochet in England, and a Nazi in Patagonia" by Philippe Sands: https://www.amazon.ca/38-Londres-Street-Impunity-Patagonia/dp/0593319753 - "A Woman of No Importance: The Untold Story of the American Spy Who Helped Win World War II" by Sonia Purnell: https://www.amazon.ca/Woman-No-Importance-Untold-American/dp/073522529X // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: August 14, 2026 Release date: August 17, 2026

In this episode of Defence Deconstructed, David Perry sits down with Dr. Rob Huebert and Dr. Adam Lajeunesse to discuss Canada's decision to shadow Chinese research ships in the Arctic and what it means for Canadian and broader Arctic security. // Guest bios: - Dr. Rob Huebert is a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the director of the Centre for Military Security and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary. - Dr. Adam Lajeunesse is a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Director of the Canadian Maritime Security Network. // Host bio: Dr. David Perry, President and CEO, Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Defence Deconstructed was brought to you by Irving Shipbuilding and Ombudsman. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari Release date: 14 August, 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Matt Smith about the current global energy market status and updates. --- Guest: - Matt Smith is the Director of Commodity Research at the global trade and data intelligence firm Kpler. --- Reading recommendation: - "The Boom: How Fracking Ignited the American Energy Revolution and Changed the World", by Russell Gold. https://www.amazon.ca/Boom-Fracking-Ignited-American-Revolution/dp/1451692293 - "The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters", by Gregory Zuckerman. https://www.amazon.ca/Frackers-Outrageous-Inside-Billionaire-Wildcatters/dp/1591847095 --- Interview recording Date: Aug 11, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Thomas Wright to discuss his book "Inflection Point: Biden, Trump, and the Future World Order". // Guest bios: - Thomas Wright is a leading geopolitics analyst, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute, and a former National Security Council official // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Recommended Readings: "The Power and the Glory: The History of the World Cup" by Jonathan Wilson: https://www.amazon.ca/Power-Glory-History-World-Cup-ebook/dp/B0DVSNN6QL // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: July 24, 2026 Release date: August 10, 2026

In this episode of Defence Deconstructed, Charlotte Duval-Lantoine sits down with Dr. Alexander Salt to discuss his latest publication titled "Canada's New Marketplace for Drone Innovation" . // Guest bios: - Dr. Alexander Salt, Senior Researcher and Managing Editor at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Host bio: Charlotte Duval-Lantoine is the Vice President, Ottawa Operations and a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Recommended Readings: - "Pyrrhic Victory: French Strategy and Operations in the Great War" by Robert Doughty. https://www.amazon.ca/Pyrrhic-Victory-French-Strategy-Operations/dp/0674027264/ // Defence Deconstructed was brought to you by Irving Shipbuilding and Ombudsman. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari Release date: 7 August 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Kelly Ogle about oil prices and some of the major Canadian and international energy news and updates --- Guest: - Kelly Ogle is Chairman of Era and Board Member at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute --- Reading recommendation: - "Aren't You That Golf Guy?: Doglegs and Detours from a Life in the Game", by Rich Lerner https://www.amazon.ca/Arent-You-That-Golf-Guy/dp/1637273916 - "Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union", by Vladislav M. Zubok https://www.amazon.ca/Collapse-Soviet-Vladislav-M-Zubok/dp/0300257309 --- Interview recording Date: July 29, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Ambassador Kanji Yamanouchi to discuss his great journey being a Japan's ambassador to Canada. // Guest bios: - Kanji Yamanouchi is Japan's ambassador to Canada. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: July 20, 2026 Release date: August 3, 2026

In this episode of Defence Deconstructed, David Perry sits down with Dr. Chris Kilford and Charlotte Duval-Lantoine to discuss their recent visit to the Rim of the Pacific Exercise. // Guest bios: - Dr. Chris Kilford is the president of the Canadian International Council, Victoria Branch. - Charlotte Duval-Lantoine is the Vice President, Ottawa Operations and a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Host bio: Dr. David Perry, President and CEO, Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Recommended Readings: - "The RIM to my PAC" by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine https://dndcaf101.substack.com/p/the-rim-to-my-pac -"Seeing" by Jose Saramago, https://www.indigo.ca/products/seeing-11 - "Hinterlands" by Hannah Lucinda Smith https://www.amazon.ca/Hinterlands-Hannah-Lucinda-Smith/dp/1805225413 // Defence Deconstructed was brought to you by Irving Shipbuilding and Ombudsman. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari Release date: 31 July 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Michelle Wiese Bockmann about the extreme situation for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the renewed Houthi threat, and the continued operation of the shadow fleet in 2026. --- Guest: - Michelle Wiese Bockmann is Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst at Windward AI --- Reading recommendation: - "Finding My Way: A Memoir" by Malala Yousafzai: https://www.simonandschuster.ca/books/Finding-My-Way/Malala-Yousafzai/9781668054277 - "Entitled: The Rise and Fall of the House of York", by Andrew Lownie: https://www.indigo.ca/products/entitled-2 - "On My Watch: Leading NATO in a Time of War", by Jens Stoltenberg: https://www.amazon.ca/My-Watch-Leading-NATO-Time/dp/0008708754 --- Interview recording Date: July 27, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Ira Shapiro and David Weiss to discuss their book "Betrayed: America Didn't Vote for This". // Guest bios: - Ira Shapiro is a former U.S. trade official. He served as general counsel in the Office of the United States Trade Representative. - David Weiss is the former CEO of Global Communities, // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Recommended Readings: - "Devil Makes Three" by Ben Fountain: https://www.amazon.ca/Devil-Makes-Three-Ben-Fountain/dp/1250776538 // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: July 16, 2026 Release date: July 27, 2026

On Monday night, US President Donald Trump signed orders to impose a 50 per cent tariff on a wide swath of Canadian goods ranging from hockey sticks to envelopes to Christmas decorations. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on August 19th. Prime Minister Mark Carney says he spoke with Trump on Tuesday morning and that they have agreed to intensify negotiations in the coming weeks. Jayme Poisson speaks to trade expert Eric Miller about the significance of these tariffs and why they're happening now. Miller is the president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group where his clients include critical mineral and potash companies. He's also a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Jamie Tronnes about Canada's energy strategy in relations to CUSMA renegotiations. --- Guest: - Jamie Tronnes is an executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security. --- Reading recommendation: - "Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump", by Maggie Heberman and Jonathan Swan. https://www.amazon.ca/Regime-Change-Inside-Imperial-Presidency-ebook/dp/B0FH2K4T1C --- Interview recording Date: July 15, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Drew Fagan and Perrin Beatty to discuss the renegotiations of Canada's strategy for CUSMA. // Guest bios: - Perrin Beatty is a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada. - Drew Fagan is a Professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and a former Ontario deputy minister. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: July 8, 2026 Release date: July 20, 2026

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rory Johnston to the show. Rory Johnston is a Commodity Market Research Specializing in Oil and Gas. Johnston describes an unprecedented period of volatility in oil markets, where the supply-demand balance swung radically within a single month. Following a ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, a surge of previously stranded tankers created a temporary mini-glut, flipping market structures from severe backwardation into contango. However, this glut proved fleeting as inbound empty tankers, initially driven by the most risk-tolerant owners, have dried up, leaving Gulf loadings constrained by available shipping capacity. Consequently, supply is tightening aggressively again. The most significant factor absorbing the supply shock is China, which swung its crude imports down by five million barrels per day without clear economic damage domestically. Johnston explores speculative explanations, including massive refined product stock releases, a coal-to-petrochemical feedstock switch, or a geopolitical understanding with the US. He also suggests China may be using the crisis as a successful dry run for weathering a potential blockade in a Taiwan conflict scenario. This swing, totaling roughly half a billion barrels, dwarfs the collective releases from IEA member states. Beyond crude, the refined products market, particularly diesel, is critically tight. Diesel crack spreads have soared to staggering levels, driven by drone attacks damaging Russian refineries, prior damage in the Middle East, and China slashing product exports. Johnston clarifies that strategic petroleum reserves function as a supply boost, not passive inventory, and that operational tank minimums at hubs like Cushing primarily affect regional price differentials to discourage exports, not trigger infinite crude spikes. He concludes that the overriding vulnerability is refining capacity, which is easy to target and hard to defend, making North American facilities a potentially valuable geopolitical safe haven in the current drone warfare era. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:29 – Guest Rory Johnson Introduction 00:01:06 – Energy Supply Demand Dynamics 00:04:30 – Mini-Glut and Market Flip 00:07:45 – Hormuz Traffic and Tankers 00:10:44 – China Import Swing Explained 00:15:00 – China Inventory Releases Analyzed 00:20:45 – Western SPR and Inventories 00:25:30 – Commercial vs Strategic Stocks 00:29:00 – Global Oil Deficit Calculation 00:34:00 – Refining Capacity Tightness 00:42:00 – Product Shortages and Prices 00:48:00 – Refinery Investment Outlook 00:52:50 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/ X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg's Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.). Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank's energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank's executives and clients, and sat on the bank's senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Heather Exner-Pirot about the recent energy announcement and the role of critical minerals in the Canadian economy. --- Guest: - Heather Exner-Pirot is a Senior Fellow and Director of Natural Resources, Energy, and Environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute --- Reading recommendation: - "Catcher in the Rye", byJerome David Salinger: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/0316769487 --- Interview recording Date: July 13, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Judy Alomari Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Robert Zoellick and Derek Burney to discuss the renegotiations of the US-Canada trade relations. // Guest bios: - Robert B. Zoellick is an American lawyer and former World Bank Group president from 2007 to 2012. - Derek Burney is a former Canada's Ambassador to the United States. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: June 29, 2026 Release date: July 13, 2026

Oil market expert Rory Johnston provides a comprehensive analysis of the current global energy landscape and recent supply disruptions. He examines the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, and the surprising resilience of the market due to China’s massive reduction in crude imports. The discussion explores potential geopolitical shifts, such as the UAE's departure from OPEC and Iran's attempts to control vital shipping lanes. Ultimately, Johnston highlights a transition toward a more interventionist era where nations must prioritize energy sovereignty and infrastructure diversification to survive future shocks. Escape the Technocracy Live Workshop (w/ Geopolitics & Empire)! https://escapethetechnocracy.com/product-escape-the-technocracy-live-workshop-season-2 Watch on BitChute / Brighteon / Rumble / Substack / YouTube *Support Geopolitics & Empire! Become a Member https://geopoliticsandempire.substack.com Donate https://geopoliticsandempire.com/donations Consult https://geopoliticsandempire.com/consultation **Listen Ad-Free for $4.99 a Month or $49.99 a Year! Apple Subscriptions https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-empire/id1003465597 Supercast https://geopoliticsandempire.supercast.com ***Visit Our Affiliates & Sponsors! Above Phone https://abovephone.com/?above=geopolitics American Gold Exchange https://www.amergold.com/geopolitics Escape The Technocracy (15% off w/ GEOPOLITICS!) https://escapethetechnocracy.com/geopolitics Expat Money (FREE “WW3 Plan-B” Report!) https://expatmoney.com/geopolitics PassVult https://passvult.com Sociatates Civis https://societates-civis.com StartMail https://www.startmail.com/partner/?ref=ngu4nzr Wise Wolf Gold https://www.wolfpack.gold/?ref=geopolitics Websites Commodity Context https://www.commoditycontext.com X https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Oil Ground Up Podcast https://open.spotify.com/show/6TmpuAGFd9FVFCFJdpk2iB About Rory Johnston Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg's Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.). Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank's energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank's executives and clients, and sat on the bank's senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors. *Podcast intro music used with permission is from the song “The Queens Jig” by the fantastic “Musicke & Mirth” from their album “Music for Two Lyra Viols”: http://musicke-mirth.de/en/recordings.html (available on iTunes or Amazon)

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Solange Marquez about current status of USMCA, particularly the trade relationship and negotiations between the US and Mexico. --- Guest: - Solange Márquez is a CGAI Fellow and a professor at the Law School of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). --- Reading recommendation: - "The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order", by Alexander Stubb: https://www.amazon.ca/Triangle-Power-Rebalancing-World-Order/dp/1967190100 --- Interview recording Date: June 29, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Gordon Griffin and John Manley to discuss the future of North American idea as Canada, the United States and Mexico enter a new phase of CUSMA discussions. // Guest bios: - Gordon Griffin is a former United States Ambassador to Canada - John Manley is a lawyer and former Deputy Prime Minister of Canada // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Reading Recommendations: "A Woman of No Importance", by Sonia Purnell. https://www.amazon.ca/Woman-No-Importance-Untold-American/dp/073522529X "No Ordinary Time: Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt: The Home Front in World War II", by Doris Kearns Goodwin. https://www.amazon.ca/No-Ordinary-Time-Franklin-Roosevelt/dp/0684804484 // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: June 25, 2026 Release date: July 6, 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Kelly Ogle to discuss demand destruction for oil in China and the case for air conditioning in Europe. // Guest: - Kelly Ogle is Chairman of Era and Board Member at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Interview recording Date: June 30, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with David Frum to discuss America at 250, the endurance of the Founder's ideals and what America's current political moment means for Canada and other democracies. // Guests' bios David Frum is a Canadian-American conservative political commentator and a former speechwriter. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Reading Recommendations: "Gotham: A History of New York City to 1898", by Mike Wallace. https://www.amazon.ca/Gotham-History-York-City-1898/dp/0195140494 // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: June 24, 2026 Release date: June 29, 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Rory Johnston about the potential peace deal between the United States and Iran, and how we should think about the oil market. --- Guest: - Rory Johnston is a CGAI Fellow and the founder of Commodity Context --- Reading recommendation: - "The Great Mortality: An Intimate History of the Black Death, the Most Devastating Plague of All Time ― A Powerful Narrative of Societal Collapse", by John Kelly: https://www.amazon.ca/Great-Mortality-Intimate-History-Devastating/dp/0060006935 --- Interview recording Date: June 22, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Adrian Wooldridge to discuss his book The Revolutionary Center: The Lost Genius of Liberalism. // Guests' bios Adrian Wooldridge is an author and columnist. He is the Global Business Columnist at Bloomberg Opinion. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Recording Date: June 17, 2026 Release date: June 22, 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, we feature a re-run of an episode from July 2025 where Kelly Ogle and Joe Calnan talk with Kathleen Gnocato and Shaz Merwat about the role of Canadian LNG in diplomacy around the G7. You can find their report for RBC Thought Leadership here: https://www.rbc.com/en/thought-leadership/the-growth-project/a-g7-strategy-for-natural-gas-four-scenarios-for-energy-security-in-the-2040s/ For the intro section, Joe unpacks the peace deal between Iran and the United States. // Guest Bio: - Kathleen Gnocato is the LNG Research Initiative Lead, Independent Consultant for RBC Thought Leadership - Shaz Merwat is Energy Policy Lead for RBC's Climate Action Institute // Host Bio: - Kelly Ogle is Managing Director of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute - Joe Calnan is VP, Energy and Calgary Operations at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Reading recommendations: - "From the Ashes: My Story of Being Métis, Homeless, and Finding My Way", by Jesse Thistle: https://www.simonandschuster.ca/books/From-the-Ashes/Jesse-Thistle/9781982101213 - "Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company", by Patrick McGee: https://www.simonandschuster.ca/books/Apple-in-China/Patrick-McGee/9781668053379 // Interview recording Date: July 2, 2025 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Joe Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with Jeremy Kinsman and John Negroponte to talk about trade and international diplomacy in a rapidly changing world in the context of the renewal, revision or repudiation of the North American trade agreement – CUSMA, USMCA or T-MEC. // Participants' bios: - Jeremy Kinsman served as Canada's ambassador to Russia, high commissioner to the UK, ambassador to Italy and ambassador to the European Union. He is a Distinguished Fellow of the Canadian International Council - John D. Negroponte is a United States career diplomat and national security official, former Director of National Intelligence, and former United States Permanent Representative to the United Nations // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Reading Recommendations: - "The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny: A Novel", by Kiran Desai: https://www.amazon.ca/Loneliness-Sonia-Sunny-Novel/dp/0307401219 - "London Falling: A Mysterious Death in a Gilded City and a Family's Search for Truth", by Patrick Radden Keefe: https://www.amazon.ca/London-Falling-Mysterious-Gilded-Familys-ebook/dp/B0FGZW9SZN - "Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History", by Vali Nasr: https://www.amazon.ca/Irans-Grand-Strategy-Political-History/dp/0691268924 // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Judy Alomari // Release date: June 03, 2026

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan talks with Randolph Mank about the energy opportunities in Asia and the importance of diplomacy for extending Canadian energy supply chains. --- Guest: - Randolph Mank is President of MankGlobal Inc., former Senior Advisor and Vice President Asia for BlackBerry, and former High Commissioner or Ambassador for Canada to Malaysia, Pakistan, and Indonesia --- Reading recommendation: - "Thinking, Fast and Slow", by Daniel Kahneman: https://www.amazon.ca/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555 --- Interview recording Date: May 27, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson sits down with John Parisella and Bruce Stokes to talk about Canada-US relations as we commence formal negotiations over the renewal, revision or repudiation of the North American trade agreement – CUSMA, USMCA or T-MEC.  // Participants' bios: - John Parisella served as Chief of Staff to Quebec Premiers Robert Bourassa and Jean Charest and then as Quebec Delegate General in New York City. - Bruce Stokes is Visiting Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Reading Recommendations: - "The Spanish Civil War" by Hugh Thomas - "Team of Rivals" by Doris Goodwin // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Jordyn Carroll // Release date: June 04, 2026

As we inch closer to the July 1st CUSMA review deadline, there still aren't any formal trade talks between Canada and the U.S. planned. The government says there are informal talks happening at different levels. Other recent developments aren't great. U.S. officials have blasted a substantial hike in what big streamers have to pay into Canadian content, and they've suspended a joint defense board that's been around for 80 years. This week as talks between the U.S. and Mexico begin, Canada is excluded. Our returning guest is Eric Miller, the president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

Over three-quarters of the global population has never lived through a major global energy crisis, such as those of the 1970s. In early 2026, that is about to change as the world faces the largest energy disruption in history, measured by the daily loss of oil output. This crisis won't be evenly distributed but will be felt everywhere – and is guaranteed to have ripple effects we won't see coming. How much oil remains in circulation, and what level of damage has already been inflicted on our global energy infrastructure? In this episode, Nate is joined by oil market analyst Rory Johnston to discuss how the Strait of Hormuz closure has led to the largest oil supply shock in history, and what the exact numbers and cascading effects are. He also breaks down the primary strategies countries will have to use to adapt to energy losses, including resorting to demand destruction, and what the disastrous risks are if shortages are allowed to persist. Rory also explains the lag between the closure, the real world impact of oil not being able to enter global circulation, and the market's response. Ultimately, Rory and Nate explore the impact of this situation on international trust and cooperation, and what that might mean for a global market system predicated on interdependence and free trade.  Who are the energy winners and losers in this war so far, and how are our global leaders accounting for the exponential risks of continued warfare? In what way can average people prepare for the energy shocks soon to ripple out across the globe? And lastly, if we do recover from this scenario, how might we treat these disruptions as a dress rehearsal for a future of lower material throughput by building greater resilience and interconnection at the local level? (Conversation recorded on April 23rd, 2026)     About Rory Johnston: Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers.  Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank's energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank's executives and clients, and sat on the bank's senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rory Johnston to the show. Rory Johnston is Commodity Market Research who specializes in oil and gas. This episode delves into the complex dynamics of the current oil market crisis stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, exploring the profound implications for global energy supply and geopolitical tensions. Johnston provides a detailed analysis of the current oil market situation, highlighting that approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 13 million barrels currently disrupted. Despite this massive supply shock, oil prices remain surprisingly low, which Johnston attributes to several factors, including market resilience, slow-moving commodity markets, and complex geopolitical negotiations. The discussion reveals the potential devastating consequences of prolonged strait closure, particularly for developing countries. While advanced economies might absorb price increases, many regions in the global south could experience complete fuel shortages, causing significant economic and humanitarian challenges. Johnston predicts that if the situation continues, demand destruction will become inevitable, potentially forcing prices to astronomical levels. Interestingly, the conversation also explores the nuanced motivations of key players like the United States, Iran, and Israel. Johnston suggests that Iran potentially benefits from prolonging the conflict, while the United States appears increasingly desperate to reach a resolution. He believes the crisis will likely conclude with Iran gaining some recognized control over the Strait of Hormuz. Johnston’s base case scenario anticipates the strait potentially reopening by mid-May, but warns that the market will require months to rebalance. The cumulative oil supply loss could reach over 1.2 billion barrels, fundamentally altering the global oil market’s dynamics. He emphasizes that what was previously an oversupplied market will likely transform into a tighter, potentially higher-priced environment. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:48 – Strait of Hormuz Basics 00:01:55 – Supply Rerouting Efforts 00:02:57 – Total Supply Losses 00:06:09 – Replacing Lost Production 00:08:46 – Demand Destruction Scenario 00:11:15 – Price Reaction Analysis 00:19:23 – Trump’s Market Interventions 00:23:43 – US Treasury Intervention? 00:25:24 – Regional Shortage Timelines 00:30:41 – Global South Impacts 00:32:20 – War Incentives Discussion 00:41:40 – Iran, Trump, & Israel 00:46:11 – Base Case Outlook 00:51:56 – Refinery Fire Concerns 00:55:54 – Wrap Up Guest Links: Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/ X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg's Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.). Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank's energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank's executives and clients, and sat on the bank's senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap Physical Insurance and Pipelines The "Toll Booth" Strait Sanctions as a Safety Valve Wealth vs. Shortages China's Strategic Resilience The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario Long-Term Energy Optionality