Alternative Visions

Today's show is dedicated to discussing the state of the US empire today. Contrary to some on the left, it is not about to collapse. But it is in a state of intensifying decline. Today's show reviews these two themes and considers the evidence for collapse vs. decline. A brief history how empires extract wealth from their dependencies (plunder, occupation, colonialism, unequal trade, financial imperialism, etc.) is discussed. A review of US institutions of Empire and how the US practices imperial dominance follows. Examples of institutional decline and failing practices are discussed: the US $, SWIFT payments system, IMF, World Bank, fiscal crisis of US empire and economy (deficits, debt, global dollar recycling, etc), contradictions in US monetary policies (why low interest rates don't stimulate growth and high rates don't dampen inflation), decline of US soft power, rise of the BRICS and global South, and chronic slow growth of US economy since 2008 as well as US political, social and ideological indicators of decline. (Discussion is based on Dr. Rasmus's forthcoming new book, 'Twilight of American Imperialism', the introductory chapter of which will be posted on his blog, http://jackrasmus.com on June 1, 2025) 

Mainstream media isn't addressing the potential negative impacts on GDP and growth from Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' cutting taxes and spending by trillions of dollars. After reviewing in detail the various provisions of the US House of Representatives final bill, likely changed little by the Senate, today's show explains how the short term impacts of the spending cuts on GDP in 2nd half this year  will likely more than offset the longer term effects of the tax cuts. Review of consumer spending, business investment, govt spending, and net exports impacts on GDP due to the tax and spending provisions of the bill.

 Today's show discusses further details on Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' tax proposals. Why target total cost was reduced by Congress from $4.5T to $3.8T. Impacts on wealthies1% and,1% and median income households. Backtracking on 'working class' cuts (tips, overtime, social security income & no tax hikes on carried interest and stock buybacks or corporate tax cut rates, as the tax package begins to look more and more favoring capital incomes and businesses.  Update on Ukraine war negotiations follows. Why Putin won't meet with Trump soon & Russia warns Ukraine if no settlement it will take a 5th province and maybe more. Russia new offensive coming soon. No real negotiations until fall 2025.    

Today's show focuses on pending $4 Trillion Tax Cuts soon acted on by US Congress as part of package of spending/budget.  What's actually in the tax bill? Why is it being reduced to $4T? What about the proposed $1.1T in new working class tax cuts (tips, overtime pay, social security income, interest deduction on new car purchases, cap on state & local taxes, etc.). Will they pass? Why are corporate taxes not on the table, only individual income taxes? Why US has cut taxes by $17 trillion since 2001 despite spending $9 trillion on wars? Why was Obama the biggest corp-business tax cutter $6.1T)? How does Trump propose to cut spending to offset the tax cuts?    

Today's show dissects the Trump-Zelensky Minerals Deal finally signed, concluding it's not at all like Trump's first deal in March. No US repayment for past US aid in this one and a back door is opened in the deal for US giving Ukraine more weapons again. And why were 3 documents drafted but we only get to know of one?  Second half of show discusses the preliminary US GDP for1st three months of 2025 showing a contraction of the US economy by -0.3%--due mostly to US businesses importing extra goods from offshore as a buffer for potential US tariffs on the horizon + US government spending cuts. Business investment continues rising (mostly inventories), housing and manufacturing contracting, and consumer spending rising at a rate half that of 4th quarter 2024.

Much of today's show is dedicated to a detailed discussion of the various plans and proposals to start negotiations on ending the Ukraine war: Trump's revised 'Kellogg Plan', Europe's plan to continue the war, Ukraine and Zelensky's refusal to negotiate without Russia leaving all territory and capitulating, and Putin's June 14, 2024 proposals that haven't changed. To summarize: Ukraine, Europe & Trump want ceasefire first then negotiations; Russia wants negotiations to start during which ceasefire will be discussed. First phase of war negotiations now over; Trump's envoy Witkoff meeting with Putin again. Outcome begins start of next phase.  The show also reviews various forecasts whether the US and global economy are heading to recession: IMF, UN, Wall St. Journal, Atlanta Federal Reserve, etc. (For more detail on Ukraine negotiations check out my latest published article: 'Why Trump's Ukraine War 'Kellogg Plan' Collapsed' at http://jackrasmus.com)

Today's show discusses latest events in Trump tariff policies. Not about paying for tax cuts but part of restructuring US empire financing. Why did Trump retreat from pace of tariff implementation? Answer: intense opposition from US multinational corporations to slow down implementation + Japan dumping US Treasuries. Trump launches verbal warning to Powell and Fed to start lowering interest rates, in repeat of 2017 Trump v. Powell conflict (which Trump won). Also, update on Ukraine war negotiations and emerging new Russian offensives. Prediction: US will exit war and Europe assume control. Europe wants to occupy western Ukraine as part of eventual settlement coming this year    

We will be talking about the likelihood of a Trump recession or not.

 Today's show discusses some of Trump's emerging domestic policies, with focus on what's behind shutting down the Education Dept., Trump Tariffs, and the $4.5T tax cuts working its way through Congress. What's the real impact of Tariffs on inflation and economic growth? What's Trump's 3 part tax strategy? Which presidents since 2001 are responsible for cutting US taxes by $17 trillion and how much did each contribute? Why Trump's overall fiscal policies are classic Neoliberalism. The show also comments on US air attacks on Yemen and Trump-Putin's phone calls and scenarios for future US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

After US & Russia met in Riyadh, US and Ukraine followed up to meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia this past week. Today's show summarizes the positions and demands of the various parties in the 4-way negotiations that are the current discussions re. future peace in Ukraine: USA, Russia, Ukraine, and European Union NATO. What did the USA tell Ukraine in Jeddah? The context of negotiations as military conflict continues, and likely will escalate, in Ukraine. How Russia has cleared out Kursk. Next likely Russian fronts in Sumy and Zaporozhie in the south. Europeans declare $1T new spending on military industry and Germany's Merz announces $540B more for ‘infrastructure'. Where will EU get the funding? Reports Trump & Putin to talk directly next week (again with no Ukraine or Europeans involved). Meanwhile, US escalates tariff war with Europe. (Next week show: Understanding Trump Tariff Strategy)

Today's show analyzes two key events of the past week: an in-depth discussion of Trump's speech to Congress: EOs, DOGE, Taxes, Tariffs, new defense spending in the pipelines, reaffirmation of Greenland and Panama Canal takeover and further shift in US support for Zelensky and Ukraine. Democrats' Senator Slotkin weak response indicate Democrats still have no alternative program or strategy. Show then discusses Europe's emergency conference in London to try to develop a response to US policy on Ukraine and likely withdrawal from Europe. European announcement of $1 trillion development of war/defense industry and continued support for Ukraine. Where will Europe get the money for both?

 What's behind the Minerals deal with Ukraine? Why it's mostly smoke & mirrors, not a contract or final deal. Why both parties compromised & left the deal vague. Who benefits from the deal? How it's related to Europe's $260B frozen Russian assets. Why it's PR. Second part of show continues discussion of the intensifying contradictions behind continuing the US global empire. Why the empire as now structured is no longer affordable and US imperialists are intent on restructuring it (once again as in 1913-19, 1944-50 and 1979-86). US deficits & debt levels unsustainable and DOGE spending cuts for tax cuts as desperate effort to regrow faltering US economy and restore empire's finances. Domestic US economic restructuring as next phase of Neoliberal policy or as beginning of the end of Neoliberal policies. (For further details on Trump-Zelensky minerals deal, check out my latest published article at http://jackrasmus.com or at LA Progressive, World Financial Review, Znet.)

 Today's show first of two parts on how current events, geopolitical and US domestic, represent the start of a fundamental US restructuring of its global empire. US-Russia meeting in Riyadh Saudi Arabia marks the opening event. What happened in Riyadh? Zelensky reacts. European leaders in tizzy over being side-lined. Starmer (UK)-Macron (France) on coming Europe take over of the war as US bows out. Implications of US-EU feuding for future of NATO. US VP Vance's speech in Munich. Current emerging restructuring of US empire in context of prior restructurings in 1913-1919, 1944-50, and 1979-85. Next week: How Trump domestic policy (economic & political) and DOGE $2T spending cuts reflects US imperial restructuring as well.

In the past week Trump issued four announcements that continue to portend a radical restructuring of the US imperial system. First: US proposes to ‘own' GAZA, allowing Israel to focus on future expansion into Syria, west bank & Lebanon, and shift its policy from genocide to ethnic cleansing. The role of Trump son-in-law Kushner's US-Israel real estate consortium behind the scenes. Second, Trump holds 90 min. talk with Putin, followed by 10 min. with Zelensky, while ignoring the Europeans who in response are now freaking out. Third, Trump announces escalation of US tariff weapon by introducing principle of ‘reciprocal' tariffs with all US trading partners + offers rollback of US use of sanctions. Fourth, Trump offers Russia to rejoin US SWIFT international payments system, then threatens BRICS with 100% tariffs if they abandon the US $ in trade, declaring thereafter ‘the BRICS are dead!'. Show concludes what we are witnessing is the beginning of the restructuring of US imperial relations abroad, while simultaneously the Trump government takes on the US bureaucratic State apparatus bloated by empire to reduce its power and influence over the government.

 today's show addresses Trump's recent foreign policies moves, including US ‘owning' GAZA, Trump overtures to negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada and their response sending 10k troops to US border, Rubio's visit to Panama, latest on Greenland and China tariffs exchanges. The show then  describes the various US moves in recent years that have had the effect of making Europe a growing economic and political dependency of the US. Show closes with early discussion of Trump's proposed tax cut bill and DOGE. Trump policies represent historic and unprecedented effort by the government to tame and bring the capitalist state under its control once again after decades of the latter exerting supremacy over the former

Today's show moves on to the Trump years, with many more shows to come no doubt. It's been only one week but some outlines of where Trump may be going are emerging. Today the discussion focuses on the emerging spending cuts and how they're designed to pay for Trump's new tax cuts. Some DOGE austerity targets are discussed. How $200B/yr will cover just half of Trump's $400B/yr tax cuts. How Tariffs & assumed GDP growth is supposed to cover the rest. That still leaves $1-$1.5 trillion budget deficit for 2025, however. What's behind Trump's talk about providing another $500B stimulus for artificial intelligence? Or his ‘drill baby drill'. What's the multiple roles for tariffs? In global geopolitics, some scenarios behind Trump's emerging attitude to Ukraine war. Why war won't end until late 2025. The likely Trump strategy behind Greenland and Panama Canal.

 As Joe Biden prepares to leave office on Jan. 20, what area the legacies he leaves behind. Today's show reviews those legacies—economic and political, domestic and global. For the US economy, a review of the inflation legacy, Covid relief program and results, the Biden jobs record, subsidies to corporate investment, actual US GDP, budget and trade deficits, and national debt. In domestic politics his contributions to the decline of democracy, identity politics, immigration and the failed election of 2024. In foreign policy: the debacle retreat from Afghanistan, his preparation and provocation of the US proxy war in Ukraine, Russia and China tariffs and sanction, support for Israeli genocide in GAZA, and policies that accelerated the rise of the BRICS and their challenge to the US global economic hegemony.

 this show continues the beginning of 2025 predictions for US domestic and global politics (see last week's show for economic predictions). Predictions include Ukraine army will collapse by the summer and real negotiations then begin. Before talks commence with no solution. Europe: Germany's Afd right wing party will win big in the February elections. Instability in Europe will grow. EU will begin to steal Russia's frozen assets in its bank. Russia will conclude mutual defense treaty with Iran and more countries will join BRICS in 2025. Israel will air attack Iran and US-Israel will occupy Damascus replacing HTS rebels. Turkey will defeat Kurds and de facto occupy north of former Syria. Political instability will intensify in So Korea, In US politics, Greenland will break from Denmark and negotiate with USA as a territory. Panama Canal will agree to joint control of the canal with US. Trump will renegotiate trade deals with Canada, Mexico and Europe, in a comprehensive ‘Plaza Accords 2.0' Musk and DOGE will recommend $200B annual spending cuts and Congress will pass Trump's tax cuts extension costing US budget $4T next decade. Trump will slash foreign aid, education, federal work force, energy subsidies, and restart southern US border wall construction. US budget deficit will again hit $1.5T in 2025 despite the cuts.

Predictions were made for this coming year for the US and global economies. They include likelihood of recession in 1H25 beyond goods sector,  inflation likely to drift up again, Fed rate policy, DOGE/Congress austerity measures cutting social programs, Trump tax cuts, deficits and national debt, Tariffs and their consequences, AI technology trends, financial asset markets (stocks and bonds). For the global economy the direction of the US $ short term v. long, a new Plaza Accord 2.0 for US allies, likelihood of Europe sliding further into recession, BRICS expansion in '25, Russia's economy and China's. (Next week: predictions for US domestic political scene and geopolitical developments re. Ukraine & middle east, Russian sanctions, and So. Korea political instability. Also: the legacies of Jimmy Carter presidency)

Today's show is the annual year end summary of the more important events and developments for 2024 for the economy and politic: A review of the US economy inflation trends, Fed rate policies, US goods sector recession, USA's runaway budget deficit and national debt, Longshore union negotiations, Artificial Intelligence & Tech trends, pending 2025 Austerity social program cuts & Musk's DOGE, Biden sanctions on Russia and China, BRICS expansion, the state of Europe & China economies, and the emerging global currency instability as prices and US $ rise. Political review includes the US election of 2024, Trump's victory, Biden's coup & Democrat party confusion, and globally the War on the ground in Ukraine, Israel wars in Lebanon-Iran-Yemen, and the collapse of Syria and its consequences. (NEXT WEEK: Annual economic and political predictions for 2025 and review of last year's predictions for 2024)

Today's show discusses the key economic events of recent weeks and their relevance to economic policy in 2025. Why did the debt-ceiling deal collapse and then pass last week. What does it mean. Trump's fiscal strategy taking shape: tariffs, tax cuts, and austerity social spending cuts coming. Musk-Swarmy's DOGE. Why it won't resolve the chronic $1 trillion plus annual budget deficits, rising national debt, and $ trillion annual payments to rich bondholders. Neoliberalism fiscal contradictions and crisis will continue. What's Musk's DOGE plans? Why the Fed cut interest rates but admitted inflation is rising into 2025. Why inflation will continue to rise. As rates rise will a rising dollar in turn precipitate a global currency war? (Next week show: review of key events of 2024 and my predictions for 2024 made December 2023 last year)

As follow up to last week's show Ukraine war is center topic. But in past week pro-NATO forces opened up new ‘fronts' well beyond the conflict. Not by accident rebel forces, coordinating with Turkish, Israeli and US forces accelerating an attack in Syria opening a new front Russia must commit forces to. Another front is Georgia as CIA-US NGO forces continue street demonstrations to try to overthrow that country's elected government, in a ‘color revolution' effort much like Ukraine 2014. Yet a third front is the events in So. Korea where the pro-US president attempted to declare martial law, reversed by the Parliament, but supported by the Korean and US occupation military. The show explains how all three events are best understood as events related to US empire counters to Russia-China.  Trump's latest tariff moves against China and BRICS also part of the counter strategy. Show concludes with analysis of Trump's several anti-war initial nominees being rejected as US neocons & Biden admin. buy time to restore aid & weapons to Ukraine

Today's show focuses on last two weeks' events in Ukraine wear and the steady US/NATO escalation. Biden approves US long range missiles fired into Russia; US & France provide Storm Shadow long range missiles in turn; Macron reportedly (by Le Monde) again discussing sending French troops; NATO planning document reveals plan for Poland-Romania-UK-Germany to divide up Ukraine; US general Bauer, head of NATO military commission publicly calls for ‘pre-emptive' strike on Russia; Biden gives Ukraine another $700m and calls for another $24B and tells Ukraine to lower its draft age to 18; Trump NSA pick Gorka calls Putin a thug and warns US under Trump will double its aide, Trump selects neocon friendly NSA advisers raising doubt about his campaign promises to end the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Putin answers NATO/US escalation with new Oreshnik hypersonic missile with 36 warheads, lowers decision to use tactical nukes, threatens to hit any NATO base from which missiles are fired, signs mutual defense treaty with Iran, and gives warnings to west in speech in Kazakhstan. 

A big debate in the mainstream media during the recent election was why do surveys show average American voters don't believe the economy is doing as great as government data indicate? More specifically, why do they believe inflation is higher than reported by the Consumer Price Index? Today's Alternative Visions show takes on that issue: why prices are higher than government price indexes report. Latest CPI report this past week said prices rose only 2.6% over the past year. (The companion government PCE report is even lower).  What the media doesn't report, however, is the various assumptions and questionable methodologies the government uses in estimating prices and inflation. Today's show explains briefly 14 of them. Inflation is easily therefore not 2.6% but more than 4% in general. In some areas of the economy rose at double digit levels the past year. And since 2019 around 30-35%. The show concludes with evidence even prices per the government indexes are creeping back up. And several forces threaten in 2025 to escalate the rate of inflation as well (for gasoline, insurances, imports, child care and other services).

Today's show topic is an assessment of the November 6 election and why Trump won. What were some interesting facts about both the electoral college vote outcome and the national popular vote totals that the mainstream media is ignoring? What new strategies Trump introduced that may have made a difference vs. old strategies Harris carried out that no longer resonate with voters>? Is there a political party realignment that is now beginning? Is Identity politics now DOA? The show concludes with some early predictions what Trump will focus on first after January 20. Why Austerity big social program spending cuts are coming. How will Trump handle the rise of the BRICS? (For my latest written article on the same topics go to https://jackrasmus.com/2024/11/08/why-trump-won-and-some-consequences/ ) Or to the LA Progressive blog for November 8.

the latest US Labor Dept jobs out today show a rapidly deteriorating jobs market. Not just in the media oft-cited CES (large corporations) jobs data but in the Labor Dept's second CPS survey that picks up smaller businesses which is retreating even faster.  CES jobs for October rose a mere 12,000. (And previous months were revised down to an average jobs growth of only 67,000/mo. July-Sept. Even worse, the CPS jobs survey showed -220,000 net employment fall in October. Full time jobs continued to disappear while part time rose. Other negative job stats were discussed in the show. Slowing jobs picture contradicts media hype the economy was doing great in third quarter. The second half of the show discusses the 3 existential issues in the current US election being totally ignored by both Harris and Trump: the massive and accelerating US budget deficits, national debt and interest payments on the debt, the big Austerity spending cuts coming in 2025 regardless who wins the election, and the BRICS challenge to the very foundations of the US global economy empire that is developing further as well with 13 new BRICS members joining the current 10. (For more on my analysis of the BRICS check out my Youtube interview along with Indian economist, S.L.Kanthan, at https://www.youtube.com/live/veY2FoKsyuY )

Today's show is dedicated to this past week's historic BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia and how it represents the most serious challenge underway to US Global Economic hegemony. What are the key institutions of US global economic power? How do the BRICS alternative economic infrastructure challenge the dominance of the key US institutions and vehicles of US power: the IMF, World Bank, SWIFT, the $dollar, the twin deficits solution to recycling dollars, etc. A history of the origins and causes of the rise of the BRICS are discussed today. And how the BRICS are an existential challenge to US global economic dominance. For more on this topic, join the discussion on the same with myself and India economist, S.L. Kanthan, this coming Sunday, October 27, at 9am pacific time at: https://www.youtube.com/live/veY2FoKsyuY?si=4lEsQnyhDtzd215u

Last Wednesday October 17 Ukraine's de facto president, Zelensky, gave a speech to his Parliament explaining his 5 point Plan for victory in Ukraine's war with Russia. It wasn't a military roadmap but a political list of demands on the US and NATO. He had previously presented the plan to Biden and other head of Europe NATO countries who had clearly pre-vetted the presentation, including no doubt the 3 additional points in the Plan to the 5 announced. Today's show discusses the 5 points announced, and suggests what the ‘secret' (Zelensky's words) 3 additional might have included. Following his speech to Ukraine's Parliament, Zelensky gave it again to NATO representatives in Brussels. Then gave a press interview in which he admitted the ‘plan' was essentially to bring NATO quickly into Ukraine, or else—as Zelensky told the press—Ukraine would be a nuclear weapon. A double blackmail of NATO and Russia. For more details and discussion of the consequences, listen to my Friday, October 19 show.

Today's show focuses on upcoming November election. The status in the swing states is reviewed. How the candidates stand on the two key issues in the election per polls: Economy and Decline of Democracy in USA. Trump v. Harris proposals on issues appealing to working class voters in the key 3 northern swing states: taxes on tips, overtime pay, social security income, SALT, interest tax deductions on auto loans. The real condition of inflation since 2019. Conflicting stats on real wages and take home pay. The Labor Dept latest jobs report. The silent issue neither candidate is talking about: runaway deficits and national debt and nearly $1 trillion/yr interest payments on the debt now. Why whoever wins in November will propose severe Austerity programs. How the BRICS expansion and new financial world system represents an existential threat to US global economic hegemony and empire and how it will blowback on US economy. Show concludes with discussion how both parties are engaged in destruction of US democracy.

Why did ILA union leaders suspend their strike after just 3 days? Some reasons you won't read in the mainstream media. The Union was in a very strong position to gain its demands, the most important being wage catch up and Artificial Intelligence threat to automate away jobs. After just 3 days the shippers also agreed to union's demand for 62% wage hike (over 6 yrs.). Why so quickly as well? My Answer: Biden administration behind the scenes warned the ILA it would implement the Taft-Hartley law to force workers back for another 80 days if the union did not go back to work.  This was the Biden ‘carrot' to the ‘stick' threat of Taft Hartlely. Shippers could easily afford the wage increase but want AI-automation more for long run profits. Now ILA union will resume negotiations in January 15 on the job security AI-automation issue, but without its current bargaining leverage of pre-election and holiday season strike. Second half of show addresses the Sept. jobs numbers explaining why 254k Sept new jobs vs. August's 128k. Media confused as to the change. Listen to my simple explanation for the Aug v. Sept difference

 today's show addresses #1 issue in polls that US economy remains the key issue in the Nov 2024 elections with voter concern for inflation remaining at the core. Harris says inflation has ‘come down' & Trump says prices remain unaffordable. Which is true? Both. The show reviews the current high plateaued level of prices, including housing, rents, gasoline, food, autos and insurances, between 25%-35% above 2019 depending on sources. The candidates ‘dueling tax' cut promises are compared and the condition of 120m households' debt now at record levels (mortgage, credit card, autos, student loans) with delinquencies beginning to appear. Ability of consumers to continue spending given minimal real wage raises, rising debt & declining household savings rate, rising poverty rate and 40% increase of use of food banks since 2022. Unemployment at 8% (not 4.3%) per govt's U-6 statistic. The show concludes with discussion of recent Zelensky-Biden meeting and US media-elite criticism of Zelensky's ‘Victory Plan'

Today's show covers what's behind Fed's .50 pt rate cut? Powell says Fed because ‘economy is good'. More likely because US goods sector economy weak. Data shows US goods sector in recession. Fed GDP forecast for 3rd quarter 1.7%, closer to 1st quarter's 1.4% not 2nd's 2.8%. Why massive US deficits & debt will mean big austerity spending cuts in 2025 further deepening recession. Wars update: the Mossad ‘pager' sabotage event and almost certain war against Hezbollah in north within weeks. Netanyahu's strategy: get US in war with Iran. Zelensky's pending ‘victory plan' & political maneuvering behind allowing UK missiles to attack deep into Russia. Pentagon vs Neocons & why Biden delayed decision until 9-26. The EU's desperate ‘plan B' to fund Ukraine. Why it won't work any more than ‘Plan A'.

first half of today's show discusses the ominous escalation in the Ukraine war with US/UK approval for Ukraine to use US/UK long range missiles to target deep into Russia. Putin's ominous warning of ‘war with NATO'. What happened to Zelensky's ‘Victory Plan'? How Ukraine has been sabotaging efforts by BRICS to arrange negotiations. What's happening on the Kursk and Donbass fronts in Ukraine. Political instability growing within NATO ranks (Germany, France, USA). Is Biden or the neocons now running the US govt? Why 32,000 Boeing workers rejected the pattern contract proposal. My review of the recent Trump-Harris presidential debate. Why neither candidate addressed the #1 issue of the economy according to polls. What was covered and not addressed in the debate. (For detailed print analysis read my article ‘The 2nd First Presidential Debate' on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com (or on Counterpunch, LA Progressive, Z, or World Financial Review public blogs).

today's show focuses on the condition of the US working class in terms of wages, jobs, debt, and unions as of labor day 2024 today. Citing various US government data sources, and contrary to the selective cherry picked stats that appear in the US mainstream media and cited by politicians, the picture for US workers today in terms of wages, jobs, debt and their unions show continued stagnation or decline over the past year, and especially since 2020.  Even based on US government data sources, US economic GDP since 2021 has been weak given the $10 trillion plus fiscal-monetary stimulus since 2020. Workers' wages continue to contract in real terms given the period of inflation. The jobs created have been far less than the Biden administration has claimed. And US unions continue to tread water in terms of membership. (For a published print version of this analysis, those interested may read the same analysis at my personal blog at https://jackrasmus.com/2024/09/02/labor-day-2024-the-condition-of-the-american-working-class-today/

today's Alternative Visions show focuses in detail on the current status of the war in Ukraine in general, and specifically on the two main offensives in progress: Russia in the Donbass region and Ukraine in the Kursk region. What's the status of forces on both sides. Why did Ukraine invade Kursk on August 6 and how is that progressing after two weeks? Did the Russians get caught off guard? Why did Russia invade Kharkov region last May and why is there a stalemate there? What's happening in the Donbass region and why Russia is accelerating its gains there. Finally, by invading Kursk have the Ukrainians in effect decided to sacrifice the Donbass to Russia? Show concludes with a brief commentary on RFKjr's decision to leave the US election race and endorse Trump. (Check out my blog jackasmus.com for a detailed print article, ‘A Tale of Two Offensives' on Monday as well).

First half of show discusses Ukraine war and specifically what's behind Ukraine's recent invasion into Russia's Kursk region. What's Ukraine & Russia respectively strategies and objectives in Kursk. 3 Ukraine objectives. Russia objectives. Which side's strategic reserves will be exhausted first? A detail discussion follows of today's Wall St. Journal article (a CIA planted piece?) about who destroyed the Nordstream pipeline 2 yrs ago. Why the piece is part of media preparation to prepare public for removal of Zelensky after the US election. Why Ukraine negotiations are now impossible and China has ended efforts to arrange talks. Some reasons why Iran hasn't responded to Israel yet. How Zionists in US are preparing to thwart student protests this fall. Second half of show turns to US economy and recent PPI and CPI reports last week. What's declining in price and what's not in July. The chronic and continuing big problem of Rents. How landlords are gaming prices as real US average weekly wages falling. What's coming in producer prices. Continuing high level of consumer inflation for housing, food, gasoline now embedded in economy despite recent CPI reports. US Households' record debt (mortgage, credit cards, auto, student, medical, etc.) as percent of income at 54%.

 First half of today's show discusses Ukraine's offensive into Russia. What are Ukraine's possible objectives? Initial successful tactics. Why did Russia not see it coming? Russia's response to date and consequences for efforts to start negotiations. What's the condition of the US real economy. Growing concern early phase of recession, as the goods sector of the economy weakens: unemployment rising, real retail sales contracting, PMI manufacturing continues 8th month of decline, net exports deeply negative, and construction turning down again. Explanations of actual GDP, inflation, jobs data. Investors call for emergency Fed rate cuts before Sept. Why the Fed won't. How the tech bubble and Japan's carry trade are interrelated

Show discusses likely major escalation of war in Middle East as Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon vow response to Israel's assassinations. April 2024 Déjà vu but worse. US sending more aircraft carrier task force. Crisis imminent. Latest on Ukraine war as US and Russia announce sending intermediate range missiles to Poland-Belarus border. Some signs of secret discussions between US and Russia. Second half of show addresses big shift in US economy last week. Inflation no longer #1 issue. Recession now on agenda as Friday jobs report and earlier data on manufacturing, construction, and retail sales all show rapid slowing of US economy. JPM bank forecasts 50% chance recession. Fed will cut rates for certain in Sept (maybe earlier) as financial markets in US, Japan and global turn down sharply. Another ‘Black Monday' for stocks possible next week on August 5. Iran signals attack Monday as well. Why US jobs report is far weaker than media reporting. Globally, Malaysia announces joining BRICS and more in Asia to soon follow as BRICS announce own int'l payments system.

Today's show focuses on Biden's 11 minute announcement he's withdrawing from election 2024 and fact checks Biden's 3 claims: 1. there's no crisis at the US border…as 2m illegals/yr enter the USA; his claim US has not been at war anywhere during his term… vs. US forces today in Ukraine, Israel, & Yemen; and his claim the US economy is ‘best in the world'… vs. reality re. US inflation, jobs, household debt, surging US deficits-debt-interest, and actual GDP first half 2024 after statistical adjustments are removed.  Show concludes with US wars Update for Ukraine (Zelensky-Trump phone call & Beijing's diplomacy) and Yemen (Israeli escalation) and with latest news for BRICS on eve of their forthcoming announcement of an alternative global financial structure…and what it means for US domestic economy and empire.

 today's show updates US 3 wars (Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan) as critical strategic NATO meeting underway today. Ukraine: Orban's meeting with Ukraine and Russia; Saudi's leader MBS threatens Europe it will withdraw funds in EU banks if it seizes its $260B Russian assets; how falling US dollar (as BRICS implement own currency) will negatively impact US deficits, debt and real economy; NATO's imminent ‘no fly' zone-and what it means? Latest on Israel's renewed bombing of northern Gaza cities as AIPAC intensifies attack on US universities. How Europe is becoming an economic dependency of USA. Second half of the show focuses on US economy: GDP, latest inflation report vs. real prices paid by consumers, ASA Report on US data reliability, why Median Annual Income for US family of four is really $96k not official $67k. Show concludes with review of growing pressures  for Biden to step down (by donors, businesses, Hollywood celebrities)as polls show Biden continuing to lose ground in key 7 swing states.

New Ukraine war offensives (both Ukraine & Russia) coming by July 7. Putin's visit to North Korea & Viet Nam as Russian response to US/EU bilateral defense deals with Ukraine. Are both sides lining up allies in preparation for a wider war? Similarities with summer 1914. Netanyahu out-maneuvers Biden (again). Is a larger war with Hezbollah near? US media blackout of Yemen war as Houthis winning Red Sea blockade. On he economic front: What's happening in the US  goods sector (construction-manufacturing)? Trump focuses on more business tax cuts as centerpiece of his economic program: proposes replacing corporate income tax with tariffs as CEOs push to end all US taxation on their foreign profits and reducing current 21% corporate tax rate to 15% for all business. What's in Trump's 2018 Tax Cuts 2.0 for 2025? The US Supreme Court's rules against any future Wealth Tax on billionaires, saying US Constitution allows tax only on income not wealth (even though Constitution provides for taxation “from whatever source derived”). Meanwhile, SCOTUS protects Trump 2018 tax cut for corporations' offshore profits. (Next week: the tightly scripted and controlled ‘debate' between Biden and Trump later this week)

 In today's latest of US wars update, support for Ukraine war in Europe weakening reflected in just held EU Parliamentary elections. Pro war parties in France and Germany suffer big setbacks in the elections. In Ukraine war escalation news, France promises Mirage jets & Germany sends Patriots systems. Intense fighting in Kharkhov front coming. What is Russia's strategy? The show reveals latest details how US/NATO/EU plan to keep funding Ukraine after 2024. What's happening in Red Sea? Latest US economy news: Trump announces replacing Income tax with tariffs. Latest US Inflation report. World Bank global GDP report and latest on Argentina Milei plan