Alternative Visions

Last Tuesday Trump gave his 1 hour and 47 minute State of the Union speech to Congress. While most was the theatrical clown show that has come to define SOTU speeches, with lemming like Congresspeople jumping up and clapping at every fragment of sentence, the first 30 minutes or so was about how great the US economy was doing—filled with misrepresentations and outright lies about the US economy's current condition.  Here's the real not to pretty picture about Jobs, Inflation, GDP, stock markets, taxes, deficits and debt, and of course tariffs.

 The NATO-Russia Ukraine war is 4 years old on February 24, 2026. Despite talk by US media and politicians, a peace agreement is not imminent. Today's show reviews the history of the conflict (politically, militarily) and presents an analysis why the end of the war is not anywhere near. Positions of the parties today (EU, Zelensky, US, Russia), why Ukraine elections this spring won't change anything, why Trump can't (won't) resolve the conflict, why EU wants the war to continue until 2030, why Russia hasn't been able to prevail in the military conflict despite devastating Ukraine's military, while new military technologies mean professional armies cannot conquer when confronting each other.  Implications for conflicts in US pending war in Iran and Asia.

Continuing the theme of recent weeks observing the slow motion crisis in AI and financial asset markets (SP500, Nasdaq, Cryptos, Gold-Silver), today's show discusses how it appears contagion across financial asset markets has begun. Where's the likely 'black swan'? What's happening to stocks in software, financial, and transport as AI destruction becomes more evident. What's driving the imminent crisis in AI, cryptos and metals? Why 2026 or 27 result in a financial markets implosion, likely at end of year. Previous market crashes are compared: 1987, 1998, 2007, 2019, 2023. How's this different.  The show will conclude with further discussion of Trump's 'fake news' US economy, as recent US jobs numbers show stagnant job market continues.

Alternative Visions - 2-6-26 - Today's show discusses the contractions in asset markets this past week and the causes underlying and potential contagion across them: AI driven S&P500 and Nasdaq stock markets, Bitcoin & Cryptos markets, and Gold and Silver markets. The current contractions vs. past 3 years performances in each are described. What's behind the February crashes. Will they now stabilize? Why more churn is coming. The real causes and risks behind the massive $700B big 7 Tech corps AI gamble underway. What's driving the gold and silver bubbles, long term and short. Second half of the show debunks claims made by Trump in his January 31 Wall St. Journal article about the state of the real US economy. Why the real data don't support his exaggerations and lies.

Gold prices are accelerating, the US dollar falling, and Trump announces a new Fed chair who will lower Fed short term rates soon. What's the effect between all three? Will the gold bubble continue? Will the dollar continue to devalue? What will lowering Fed rates mean for both? What's the connection to four decades of financialization and globalization of US capitalism. The growing contradictions (and instability) in US monetary policy is a hallmark of the current period. What does this mean for the US empire's global economy weakening?

Trump's Tariffs, Greenland Grab, and WEF Speech  The show today looks at the scope and actual results of Trump's tariffs over the past year. What are they really about. Next the latest in his grab of Greenland. What's in the 'framework' agreed to with NATO? Why it's not a pullback from US absorbing it, as the US mainstream media and libs are saying. Last, a review of Trump's speech to the WEF and especially why the US economy is not in great shape, except for speculators in gold, silver and AI bubbles. Why US GDP is much lower, jobs growth stagnant and inflation much higher than reported.

 Today's show reviews recent announcements re. Big US banks record profits, highest ever, the Federal Reserve attack by Trump, and the disappearing War Powers Act. Has Trump halted his plans to attack Iran? What now with Greenland as Europe sends military contingents to that country? What about Act 2 for Venezuela? More economic and political instability coming in 2026

Alternative Visions with Jack Rasmus 1-9-26

as a follow up to last show's 'Review of US Economy 2025', this week the show makes predictions where it's headed in 2026. Topics include US GDP for next year, jobs & unemployment, Inflation (CPI & PCE), Fed interest rates (short & long term), continued devaluation of the US dollar and its consequences, direction of financial asset bubbles (gold, silver, crypto, stocks), AI investment & real business spending, government spending (defense vs social programs), budget deficits and national debt, US trade deficit. Impact of global trends (BRICS, sanctions, dollar demand, demand for US Treasuries by China, BRICS, etc. also discussed).

Today's show reviews the performance of the US economy the past year. Topics covered include actual inflation, jobs and likely GDP numbers. Special focus on Trump's 2 main economic initiatives: the $5 trillion tax cut package and Trump tariffs offensive. What have been the actual impact of both thus far? Likely impact in 2026 and beyond? Trump monetary policy browbeating the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Why neither corporate cost reduction via tax cuts and interest rate cuts will have much effect on the real economy. Contradictions in 21st century US capitalism that negate stimulative effects of fiscal and monetary policies. Trump record on war spending and social program spending. US Deficits, National Debt, and interest payments 2025. State of AI investing and financial bubbles (tech stocks, gold-silver, cryptos). What's the Trump record on the trade deficit, FDI financial flows, and US dollar.

Today's show focuses on the details and directions for the US Empire revealed in Trump's just released 'National Security Strategy of the USA' document. Is the US Empire re-orienting and restructuring? IF so where? A detailed look and analysis of the document, including its new priority and focus on the Western Hemisphere, a longer term focus on Asia-China-Taiwan, and its criticism of Europe and NATO.  The document confirms Trump economic and geopolitical policies to date, where it's going next three years, and predictions previously made on this radio show.  The show also reviews key economic and political events of the past week. (Notice: next week's show will focus on our annual review of the US & global economy in 2025).

The latest trends in US financial asset bubbles (cryptos, gold-silver, Stocks, AI) and what's happening in the real US economy 4th quarter: latest consumer spending stats, manufacturing PMIs, GDP forecasts, etc. Trump moves to boost auto and drug company profits. Will the Fed cut rates in December? Real GDP now flat or declining. Show then discusses latest Europe efforts to grab $160B Russian assets to fund Ukraine and why it's failing. Germany's remilitarization and AfD anti-war party's popularization. Latest Trump-Russia negotiations and anti-corruption moves against Zelensky government. Show concludes with US statistics showing US defense spending 2025 in excess of $2 trillion a year and projected to rise another $.5 trillion under Trump by 2027.

Today's show goes into more depth discussion on the topic of financial asset bubbles churning in recent days: Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks, AI as cryptos fall 30% and warnings appear in high places (Dimon, Google, etc) about AI bubble. Hedge funds, auto, credit cards, CRE, private credit, bankruptcies, junk bonds, leveraged loans, etc. in trouble. The show updates latest Ukraine war with Trump's new 28 pt. Plan and Venezuela attack approaches. No invasion a la Vietnam but bombing, regime change, decapitation strikes likely. 

How debt and securitization in US property (CRE, etc) is creating classic 2008 bust potential. Financial markets volatility sign of bubble top? Latest data on US real economy. Venezuela as Trump's 3rd War. Will US invade? Likely scenarios next 60 days. Venezuela, Russia, China responses? California-Texas gerrymandering as harbinger of more US democracy decline. Mamdani's NY victory

 Today's show discusses the Four financial bubbles now growing same time: Gold prices doubled last18 months. Bitcoin up 160%+. S&P, Dow, Nasdaq stock markets up more than 50%. What's driving it? AI, US sanctions, -10% fall of the US dollar, and global economic slowdown. Show explains AI boom and stocks surge due to speculative investing in just 7 largest Tech corps. AI boom now 17X larger than 2000 Internet boom. AI responsible for 80% of stock markets surge. Tech investment 90% of 2025 first half US GDP. Take away AI and US economy, first half 2025 GDP grows only 0.1%.  When will any of the four bubbles burst? Will any one take down the other three?

 Consumer spending = 2/3s US economy but now hitting a wall. After tax wages down 50% in 2025 from 2024. Botton 1/3 households income gains lowest since 2016.  Top 10% households (>$250k/yr) now account for 49% of all consumer spending. Will worsen as unemployment surges, inflation resumes, and $1T in health ACA & Medicaid subsidies for 22.4m ends. Why Fed 0.25% token rate cut won't help. Show next discusses how US presidents become multimillionaires after they leave office. And why Trump & the Empire now shifting tariff and sanctions policies toward India and the BRICS. (Next week: what's the Empire's 'Clean Break' policy shift recommendations about?)

Today's show discusses several economic reports indicating US economy is entering a period of instability. Labor Dept. reports 911,000 fewer jobs were created March 24-March 25 (before summer jobs crash) than were reported by its monthly jobs reports; Consumer prices rising again since April (especially services); US Census Bureau reports household real incomes (averages and median) have not changed since 2019 except for the wealthiest 5% households; US poverty levels back up to 2019 levels; 27 million still without any health insurance (before Trump cuts to Medicaid and ACA take effect). The show also comments on the popular uprising occurring in France (as Europe starts cutting social benefits to pay for military expansions and Ukraine). And concludes with what's behind the media hype that Russia has attacked Poland with drones.

Latest jobs report shows Employment is no longer a 'lagging' indicator. Summer jobs (last 3 mos) virtually stagnant at 12k per mo. Total unemployment 8.1% officially (U-6). Inflation higher than 2.7% official number (4%) and real wages barely growing 1-1.5% when 50m part time/temp/gig workers included. Review of Europe's economy shows major Europe economies now contracting or stagnant (Germany, UK, France). Entire EU area GDP stalled at 0.1% (officially and actually contracting). Europe trade head says EU can't afford to buy $750 billion of US oil and gas per recent US-EU trade deal; US producers say can't drill that much as well. What next for Trump's US-EU trade deal? Main reason why Trump has sent US naval taskforce to Venezuela.              

US Mainstream Media and politicians keep saying US 'defense' spending annual is about $850 billion. Why that's just an initial budget proposal and just for Pentagon spending. Today's show shows what US annual actual defense (e.g. war) spending is $2 trillion a year. The show then reviews the condition of the USA and EU economies and why GDPs are much lower than reported. A quick review of emerging global conflicts is also reported in Venezuela, Armenia-Iran, India, etc.

Why Trump is now stacking the Federal Reserve bank's ranks of 7 Governors and threatening Fed chair Powell to force lower Fed interest rates. Why rates will start lowering in September. Why US monetary policy has been broken since 2008 due to changes in 21st century capitalism. The second half of the show discusses Texas and California's pissing match to further gerrymander the US House of Representatives which is already 90% non-competitive. The show discusses why the latest bout of gerrymandering is only part of a bigger picture of decline of US democratic institutions and practices since 2000.  Concluding the show, what are the main takeaways of Trump's meetings last week with Putin in Alaska and with European leaders and Zelensky in Washington last Monday?

Today's show addresses key strategic questions in the Ukraine war post-Alaska Trump-Putin meeting: What are the strategic objectives of Trump, Putin, and Ukraine-Europe in the wake of the Putin-Trump meeting? Why are the US neocons+Europe+Zelensky opposed to any compromise settlement to the war? Who are the Neocons (Deep State) enabling the Europe-Zelensky opposition to ending the war? Why did Trump cancel his draconian sanctions (due Aug 8) and shift from 'ceasefire first' to a compromise settlement with Russia and a general 'peace deal'? What's the Europe strategy now? Putin's? Dr. Rasmus also revisits his early 2025 prediction that the Ukraine army will begin to collapse along several fronts by November 2025 due to insufficient reserves and multiple Russian tactical encirclements. 

Today's show discusses what's behind the announcement that Trump and Putin will meet next friday in Alaska. Will it mean the beginning of the end of the Ukraine War? Why not. Why Trump sent his envoy, Witkoff, to Moscow to meet with Putin for 3 hrs last week. What will Zelensky, the Europeans and US neocons—all who want war to continue—will now do. Also discussed: Trump's phony corporate & foreign govt announcements they'll invest trillions in US economy + Israel's announcement it will occupy all of GAZA + US raises bounty on head of Maduro, Venezuela'ls president Maduro to $50 million. (for print version analysis of the Trump-Putin meeting read my article of same title on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com) 

 Today's show dives into Trump's latest multi-country tariff war. What's the latest for August, a critical month. Latest Japan & EU deals as 'templates'.  Trump's phony announcement of both countries to invest $17 trillion in USA. Political tariffs attack on India, Brazil and BRICS. Russia 100%. Trump's retreat on China. What's up with Mexico & Canada? Key dates of August 8, 12.  Second half of show discusses latest US GDP numbers for April-June. Why US growth is NOT 3% but closer to 1% and the US economy is sliding toward stagnation or even recession. Why Trump's Big Bill on Taxes and Tariffs are a drag on US economic growth.

Today's show discusses recent 'flash points' of the past week in US and geopolitical developments. Trump's tariffs policy revenue and political objectives. Why DNI director Tulsi Gabbard resurrected the Russiagate affair and targeted Obama. Why German Chancellor Merz is now Europe's biggest war hawk. Why Israel and Turkey are facing off over who runs Damascus. How Zelensky is maneuvering with the west to stay in office and continue the war. Why Trump's foreign policy shifts are really about restoring the American military and the Empire. Why the 2020s are not the 1980s.

Today's show discusses Trump's just passed $5 trillion tax cut. The four big lies about the Trump cuts are debunked: why the cuts won't 'pay for themselves'; why the total is at least $5 trillion+ and not the official $3 trillion estimate reported by the media; why the cuts won't add 1-2% to GDP or raise wages and create jobs as the govt claims; and why they'll result in deficits and debt over the coming decade far more than the $3.3 trillion the Trump administration and mainstream media are telling us. The show summarizes the $22 trillion taxes cut from 2001 to 2025 by presidents Bush, Obama, Biden and Trump, and how that's resulted in US budget deficits now averaging $2 trillion a year, a $38 trillion US national debt, and interest payments of more than $1 trillion/yr paid to wealthy US and foreign bondholders of that debt. Why Trump's tax cuts represent a continuation of Neoliberal fiscal policy on steroids. (For a published article on this subject, go to Jack Rasmus's blog at http://jackrasmus.com or to Counterpunch, LA Progressive or Z blogs).    

 Today's show picks up the discussion of last week on 'How US Goes to War' and comments on the Trump bombing of Iran last Friday. (For a print analysis of the bombing event read my recently published article, 'Trump's Forever War' on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com or on Counterpunch, LA Progressive, Z network and other sites). Today's show discusses Trump's tax bill, its real dimensions and why it will accelerate deficits, debt, and the fiscal crisis of the US imperial state, followed by what's behind Trump's bombing of Iran and why that war has just begun. The show concludes with further sharing of themes and analysis in my forthcoming book, 'Twilight of American Imperialism', Clarity Press, out later this year.

As Trump prepares the USA to directly attack Iran on behalf of Israel, it is clear he's repeating a pattern of past US decisions to go to war in recent decades. Today's show is based on my recent published article by the same title, available on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com and elsewhere in Counterpunch, LA Progressive, etc. How AMerica goes to war is about planning months before pulling the trigger; lining up political support and military assets, engaging in negotiations as a tactic to lull the opposition into thinking a deal is possible when it isn't, creating an excuse and even false flag event to precipitate and justify the attack, and once the attack has occurred pursuing the real objective of regime change. The show reviews US war events from Vietnam to the Iraq wars, the small  attacks in the '80s and '90s on Grenada, Panama, Serbia, what happened in Ukraine, and the preparations for war with Iran by the US and Trump on behalf of Israel. Why Trump won't attack this weekend as originally planned and says two more weeks. Consequences if US bombing fails and regime change, the real goal, is not achieved.    

 Today's show focuses on yesterday's Israel attack on Iran. Four key points about the escalation: 1) Netanyahu scuttles US-Iran negotiations 2) attack was not just to destroy Iranian nuclear weapons development but to decapitate Iran govt and military, create instability and possible regime change 3) Planning has occurred for months with US assistance and US knew of, and likely assisted, Israel in the attack 4) US neocons, with Trump support, continue to run US middle east policy.  What will Iran do next? What about Iran-Russia mutual defense agreement recently signed? What will be the response of China? Other BRICS? Regional arab states? More to come. Report on recent EU new secondary sanctions on countries buying Russia oil and EU price-cap sanction lowered to $35/barrel. Why it didn't work at $60 and won't again

Today's show is dedicated to discussing the state of the US empire today. Contrary to some on the left, it is not about to collapse. But it is in a state of intensifying decline. Today's show reviews these two themes and considers the evidence for collapse vs. decline. A brief history how empires extract wealth from their dependencies (plunder, occupation, colonialism, unequal trade, financial imperialism, etc.) is discussed. A review of US institutions of Empire and how the US practices imperial dominance follows. Examples of institutional decline and failing practices are discussed: the US $, SWIFT payments system, IMF, World Bank, fiscal crisis of US empire and economy (deficits, debt, global dollar recycling, etc), contradictions in US monetary policies (why low interest rates don't stimulate growth and high rates don't dampen inflation), decline of US soft power, rise of the BRICS and global South, and chronic slow growth of US economy since 2008 as well as US political, social and ideological indicators of decline. (Discussion is based on Dr. Rasmus's forthcoming new book, 'Twilight of American Imperialism', the introductory chapter of which will be posted on his blog, http://jackrasmus.com on June 1, 2025) 

Mainstream media isn't addressing the potential negative impacts on GDP and growth from Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' cutting taxes and spending by trillions of dollars. After reviewing in detail the various provisions of the US House of Representatives final bill, likely changed little by the Senate, today's show explains how the short term impacts of the spending cuts on GDP in 2nd half this year  will likely more than offset the longer term effects of the tax cuts. Review of consumer spending, business investment, govt spending, and net exports impacts on GDP due to the tax and spending provisions of the bill.

 Today's show discusses further details on Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' tax proposals. Why target total cost was reduced by Congress from $4.5T to $3.8T. Impacts on wealthies1% and,1% and median income households. Backtracking on 'working class' cuts (tips, overtime, social security income & no tax hikes on carried interest and stock buybacks or corporate tax cut rates, as the tax package begins to look more and more favoring capital incomes and businesses.  Update on Ukraine war negotiations follows. Why Putin won't meet with Trump soon & Russia warns Ukraine if no settlement it will take a 5th province and maybe more. Russia new offensive coming soon. No real negotiations until fall 2025.    

Today's show focuses on pending $4 Trillion Tax Cuts soon acted on by US Congress as part of package of spending/budget.  What's actually in the tax bill? Why is it being reduced to $4T? What about the proposed $1.1T in new working class tax cuts (tips, overtime pay, social security income, interest deduction on new car purchases, cap on state & local taxes, etc.). Will they pass? Why are corporate taxes not on the table, only individual income taxes? Why US has cut taxes by $17 trillion since 2001 despite spending $9 trillion on wars? Why was Obama the biggest corp-business tax cutter $6.1T)? How does Trump propose to cut spending to offset the tax cuts?    

Today's show dissects the Trump-Zelensky Minerals Deal finally signed, concluding it's not at all like Trump's first deal in March. No US repayment for past US aid in this one and a back door is opened in the deal for US giving Ukraine more weapons again. And why were 3 documents drafted but we only get to know of one?  Second half of show discusses the preliminary US GDP for1st three months of 2025 showing a contraction of the US economy by -0.3%--due mostly to US businesses importing extra goods from offshore as a buffer for potential US tariffs on the horizon + US government spending cuts. Business investment continues rising (mostly inventories), housing and manufacturing contracting, and consumer spending rising at a rate half that of 4th quarter 2024.

Much of today's show is dedicated to a detailed discussion of the various plans and proposals to start negotiations on ending the Ukraine war: Trump's revised 'Kellogg Plan', Europe's plan to continue the war, Ukraine and Zelensky's refusal to negotiate without Russia leaving all territory and capitulating, and Putin's June 14, 2024 proposals that haven't changed. To summarize: Ukraine, Europe & Trump want ceasefire first then negotiations; Russia wants negotiations to start during which ceasefire will be discussed. First phase of war negotiations now over; Trump's envoy Witkoff meeting with Putin again. Outcome begins start of next phase.  The show also reviews various forecasts whether the US and global economy are heading to recession: IMF, UN, Wall St. Journal, Atlanta Federal Reserve, etc. (For more detail on Ukraine negotiations check out my latest published article: 'Why Trump's Ukraine War 'Kellogg Plan' Collapsed' at http://jackrasmus.com)

Today's show discusses latest events in Trump tariff policies. Not about paying for tax cuts but part of restructuring US empire financing. Why did Trump retreat from pace of tariff implementation? Answer: intense opposition from US multinational corporations to slow down implementation + Japan dumping US Treasuries. Trump launches verbal warning to Powell and Fed to start lowering interest rates, in repeat of 2017 Trump v. Powell conflict (which Trump won). Also, update on Ukraine war negotiations and emerging new Russian offensives. Prediction: US will exit war and Europe assume control. Europe wants to occupy western Ukraine as part of eventual settlement coming this year    

We will be talking about the likelihood of a Trump recession or not.

 Today's show discusses some of Trump's emerging domestic policies, with focus on what's behind shutting down the Education Dept., Trump Tariffs, and the $4.5T tax cuts working its way through Congress. What's the real impact of Tariffs on inflation and economic growth? What's Trump's 3 part tax strategy? Which presidents since 2001 are responsible for cutting US taxes by $17 trillion and how much did each contribute? Why Trump's overall fiscal policies are classic Neoliberalism. The show also comments on US air attacks on Yemen and Trump-Putin's phone calls and scenarios for future US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

After US & Russia met in Riyadh, US and Ukraine followed up to meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia this past week. Today's show summarizes the positions and demands of the various parties in the 4-way negotiations that are the current discussions re. future peace in Ukraine: USA, Russia, Ukraine, and European Union NATO. What did the USA tell Ukraine in Jeddah? The context of negotiations as military conflict continues, and likely will escalate, in Ukraine. How Russia has cleared out Kursk. Next likely Russian fronts in Sumy and Zaporozhie in the south. Europeans declare $1T new spending on military industry and Germany's Merz announces $540B more for ‘infrastructure'. Where will EU get the funding? Reports Trump & Putin to talk directly next week (again with no Ukraine or Europeans involved). Meanwhile, US escalates tariff war with Europe. (Next week show: Understanding Trump Tariff Strategy)

Today's show analyzes two key events of the past week: an in-depth discussion of Trump's speech to Congress: EOs, DOGE, Taxes, Tariffs, new defense spending in the pipelines, reaffirmation of Greenland and Panama Canal takeover and further shift in US support for Zelensky and Ukraine. Democrats' Senator Slotkin weak response indicate Democrats still have no alternative program or strategy. Show then discusses Europe's emergency conference in London to try to develop a response to US policy on Ukraine and likely withdrawal from Europe. European announcement of $1 trillion development of war/defense industry and continued support for Ukraine. Where will Europe get the money for both?

 What's behind the Minerals deal with Ukraine? Why it's mostly smoke & mirrors, not a contract or final deal. Why both parties compromised & left the deal vague. Who benefits from the deal? How it's related to Europe's $260B frozen Russian assets. Why it's PR. Second part of show continues discussion of the intensifying contradictions behind continuing the US global empire. Why the empire as now structured is no longer affordable and US imperialists are intent on restructuring it (once again as in 1913-19, 1944-50 and 1979-86). US deficits & debt levels unsustainable and DOGE spending cuts for tax cuts as desperate effort to regrow faltering US economy and restore empire's finances. Domestic US economic restructuring as next phase of Neoliberal policy or as beginning of the end of Neoliberal policies. (For further details on Trump-Zelensky minerals deal, check out my latest published article at http://jackrasmus.com or at LA Progressive, World Financial Review, Znet.)

 Today's show first of two parts on how current events, geopolitical and US domestic, represent the start of a fundamental US restructuring of its global empire. US-Russia meeting in Riyadh Saudi Arabia marks the opening event. What happened in Riyadh? Zelensky reacts. European leaders in tizzy over being side-lined. Starmer (UK)-Macron (France) on coming Europe take over of the war as US bows out. Implications of US-EU feuding for future of NATO. US VP Vance's speech in Munich. Current emerging restructuring of US empire in context of prior restructurings in 1913-1919, 1944-50, and 1979-85. Next week: How Trump domestic policy (economic & political) and DOGE $2T spending cuts reflects US imperial restructuring as well.