Podcasts about real gdp

Derek Moore revisits the 1994-95 interest rate and market environment against the current backdrop regarding treasury yields and future S&P 500 Index returns. Plus, going through the case for higher for longer, whether that is good or bad for markets, and the adjustment the market would need to go through. Later, quantifying how sensitive the S&P 500 Index is to change in the forward PE ratio by putting into actual numbers and levels. Also, looking at Arista Networks and Alibaba before earnings and what the options market is saying their expected one standard deviation moves might be up or down. Finally, most people look at Real Inflation adjusted GDP, but Nominal GDP growth may be correlated to the 10-year yield and what that means if we go back to pre-GFC nominal growth rates. All this and more.    What is Nominal GDP Growth Rate? What is Real GDP growth? The US Dollar index and whether we are out of the zone of significance yet? Inflation in services remains sticky Why interest rates staying higher isn't necessarily a problem for the stock market Quantifying sensitivity of the S&P 500 Index to small changes in the forward PE multiple 1994-95 vs 2024-25 update around treasury yields, S&P 500 returns Alibaba and Arista earnings this week and their option implied moves  How to calculate expected move around earnings based on implied volatility levels     Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Season 4, Episode 38: Keith Prather: Dr. Kuehl's partner at Armada; talks to members about the Federal Reserve's decision that was made on Wednesday.ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is out this week, but we are still back with a special economic update podcast hosted by Keith Prather : Managing Director at Armada. In Season 4, Episode 38 (9:45 in length), Keith talks to members about the Fed's recent decision and what the implications are for ASA Members. Rate cutting trend for 2025… are we still seeing that? What will the interest rate environment be like in 2025? When will we see that 2.9% terminal rate?? Real GDP trajectory changed, what are they saying now? Where is government spending in relation to the GDP? ASA distributors should be happy… why? What does the unemployment rate look like for the next three years? Inflation is higher than expected… what is the new projection? What is the secret when it comes to tariffs? Was this decision actually bad news?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

It's Earnings Season "Rush Week" this week, with the bulk of companies reporting 3rd Quarter results; after that, the stock buy back window is prepared to re-open, providing nearlt $1-T in funds to flood the markets. The median value of stock portfolios is $250k, up from $190k. Demand for AI chips is not going away. Markets entering the seasonallt-strong period of the year after hitting new, all-time highs on Friday, triggering a buy signal. The risk of a deeper contraction is possible, but now unlikely. An analysis of the latest CPI numbers reveals a contrast between headline numbers and details in the data; there are some anomalies. Lance discusses the 8 components of the CPI & their weighting in the index. Life with the Roberts' reviews the weekend birthday of the youngest daughter, and fun with Gunner the Wonder Dog. The latest GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts. GDP vs Inflation is slowing; NFIB Confidence is on the wane: Small businesses "feel like" they're in recession. Expectations for Retail Sales vs their reality; Cap Ex plans vs Real GDP; why small businesses are not optimistic. SEG-1: Earnings Season Rush Week SEG-2: CPI Analysis: Headline Numbers vs Details & Data SEG-3: Economic Data Does Not Support Recession...but... SEG-4: Why Small Businesses Are Concerned Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/gdp-report-continues-to-defy-recession-forecasts/ "NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Bull Market Remains Intact" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZJ1LXlxnyo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Rising Volatility, China Stimulus, & Storms' Economic Surge: What They Mean for Portfolios" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJZp1muy9zA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EarningsSeason #MarketSeasonality #AllTimeHighs #CPIReport #GDPReport #NFIBConfidenceIndex #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Recession #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #MarketBullishness #MarketRisk #ManagingRisk #MoneyFlows #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

It's Earnings Season "Rush Week" this week, with the bulk of companies reporting 3rd Quarter results; after that, the stock buy back window is prepared to re-open, providing nearlt $1-T in funds to flood the markets. The median value of stock portfolios is $250k, up from $190k. Demand for AI chips is not going away. Markets entering the seasonallt-strong period of the year after hitting new, all-time highs on Friday, triggering a buy signal. The risk of a deeper contraction is possible, but now unlikely. An analysis of the latest CPI numbers reveals a contrast between headline numbers and details in the data; there are some anomalies. Lance discusses the 8 components of the CPI & their weighting in the index. Life with the Roberts' reviews the weekend birthday of the youngest daughter, and fun with Gunner the Wonder Dog. The latest GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts. GDP vs Inflation is slowing; NFIB Confidence is on the wane: Small businesses "feel like" they're in recession. Expectations for Retail Sales vs their reality; Cap Ex plans vs Real GDP; why small businesses are not optimistic. SEG-1: Earnings Season Rush Week SEG-2: CPI Analysis: Headline Numbers vs Details & Data SEG-3: Economic Data Does Not Support Recession...but... SEG-4: Why Small Businesses Are Concerned Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO,  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/gdp-report-continues-to-defy-recession-forecasts/ "NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Bull Market Remains Intact" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZJ1LXlxnyo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Rising Volatility, China Stimulus, & Storms' Economic Surge: What They Mean for Portfolios" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJZp1muy9zA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EarningsSeason #MarketSeasonality #AllTimeHighs #CPIReport #GDPReport #NFIBConfidenceIndex #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Recession #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #MarketBullishness #MarketRisk #ManagingRisk #MoneyFlows #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Q2 GDP not as strong as the headline numbers show While Real Q2 GDP increased at a 2.8% annualized pace and easily topped the estimate of 2.1%, there were some likely one time impacts that lifted the numbers. The major outlier was the change in private inventories as it added 0.82% to the headline GDP number. As we discussed after Q1 GDP, private inventories negatively weighed on GDP during that quarter as it subtracted 0.42% from the headline number and led to a disappointing growth for Real GDP of 1.4%. Government also saw a nice boost as it grew 3.1% in Q2 and added 0.53% to the headline number. Even though the report may not be as strong as the headline shows, I still believe it was a good report. Personal consumption expenditures grew 2.3% in the quarter as spending on goods was up 2.5% and spending on services was up 2.2%. Spending was different when compared to Q1 considering in that report goods spending fell 2.3% and services spending rose 3.3%. Private investment was also strong in Q2 as it rose 8.4%. Although residential was down 1.4%, nonresidential investment was up 5.2%. Equipment was the strongest subcategory as it was up 11.6% and intellectual property products also saw good growth of 4.5%. Trade was the only component that subtracted from the headline number. The increase in imports of 6.9% more than offset the increase in exports of 2.0% and led to a subtraction of 0.72% from the headline number. I believe this GDP report is exactly what we needed to see for a potential soft landing. We are still seeing growth of around 2%, but it is slowing which should help reduce inflation in the coming months.    June PCE Inflation continues to normalize as the June personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) increased 2.5% from a year ago. Core PCE, which is the Fed's preferred measure showed an increase of 2.6%. Both numbers were in line with expectations and they provide more evidence that an interest rate cut should be heading our way as we exit the year. This report does put more pressure on the Fed to provide a signal for fed policy direction at next week's meeting. I don't think there will be a cut at that meeting, but the market appears to be hoping that they at least hint towards a cut in September.    Legal battle between Warner Bros. Discovery and NBA is set to begin The NBA announced deals with Disney, Comcast and Amazon for rights to games for 11 years starting in the fall of 2025. The deals totaled around $77 B with Disney paying around $2.6 B per year, Comcast paying around $2.5 B per year, and Amazon paying around $1.9 B per year. These deals also include the rights for WNBA games. The current rights that will expire next season were for 9 years and nearly $24 B. Disney will air more than 20 games per season on ABC and up to 60 games on ESPN. NBC will air 100 NBA games each season, including about 50 that will be exclusive to Peacock. NBC is returning as a partner with the NBA after losing rights in 2002. Amazon will offer 66 regular season games. This was a major disappointment for Warner Bros. considering Turner Sports has carried live NBA games for nearly 40 years. This spells more trouble for TNT and TBS as this was a major asset for these stations. The popular “Inside the NBA” show on TNT is also in question if Warner Bros. is unable to win back the rights. Warner Bros did acquire matching rights as part of the current deal, but the NBA rebuffed the bid and said, “Warner Bros. Discovery's most recent proposal did not match the terms of Amazon Prime Video's offer and, therefore, we have entered into a long-term arrangement with Amazon.” It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. The NBA doesn't believe Warner Bros. rights extend to an all-streaming package, which was carved out for Amazon. The last time these deals were made I can't see how streaming would have been addressed. For that reason, my early inclination would be that it would be hard for the NBA to deny Warner Bros. their matching rights.    The IRS and Inherited IRAs After 5 years, the IRS has finally come to a decision with inherited IRA withdrawals. The Secure Act in 2019 removed the ability for most retirement account beneficiaries to stretch distributions over their life expectancy and now requires them to fully deplete the account after 10 years. With tax-deferred accounts, this severely limits compounding growth and increases the income tax burden on these beneficiaries. The component that has been up for debate is whether those beneficiaries also have to take required distributions during each of those 10 years. So far, no distributions have been required and a few days ago the IRS confirmed that a distribution will not be required in 2024. However, beginning in 2025, beneficiaries who inherited a tax-deferred retirement account in 2020 or later from someone who was subject to RMDs (which will be most cases) must begin taking small required distributions of their own each year as well. This does not apply to beneficiaries who are spouses, minors, or disabled, and while inherited Roth IRAs are subject to the 10-year rule, they will not have annual required distributions. Keep in mind, if you inherited an IRA in 2020 and wait until 2025 to start distributions, you now only have 6 years left to deplete it because you are still bound by the 10-year rule. This means larger annual distributions and maybe higher tax brackets. So even though you don't have to start, that doesn't mean you should continue to wait or that you should only take the minimum amount required. Every beneficiary should have their own plan on how best to distribute the funds at the lowest tax rate which will be dependent on their own income level, retirement date, level of their own retirement assets, and the fact that tax rates could increase in 2026. This could mean accelerating or deferring inherited withdrawals so they occur when your own income is lower.   Companies Discussed: Bank of America (BAC), Dominos (DPZ) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

The rise of China and the security dilemma that it presents is viewed as inevitable by significant sections of the UK policy community. Central to this is China's strong economic base, which has generated the diplomatic, informational, military and economic levers necessary for it to challenge the US-led 'rules-based' order designed to perpetuate Western power post-World War Two. However, while China is a formidable adversary and should not be underestimated, we should not be blind to the weaknesses in China's economic structure and risk overestimating its strengths and constraining ourselves conceptually. In particular, we should be cautious in using gross indicators to calculate relative power and economic growth, as in isolation these approaches can be misleading. This article compares competing methods of measuring power, before examining that while China is likely to overtake the US in terms of gross real GDP, this is not an effective metric for assessing relative power when used in isolation. Despite economic headwinds, China will still overtake the US in terms of real GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all "final goods and services produced in a specific period" in a country. Real GDP accounts for price inflation against the GDP of a chosen base year, therefore only rising output increases GDP, not inflation. This metric of real GDP benefits from being the most commonly used indicator of an economy's overall size, growth and general health, meaning that there is significantly more data available for comparative analysis. Although China has significant demographic, capital and productivity challenges, this is unlikely to prevent China from overtaking the US in real GDP. China has capitalised upon lower relative wage costs due to its large population, a central driver of its economic growth over the last 50 years. The 1978 economic reforms permitted private businesses while liberalising foreign trade and investment, since which China has experienced enormous economic growth, even compared to other rapidly growing "Asian Tiger" economies. From 1978 to the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis, China's real GDP grew by a factor of 17. The 2008 crisis reduced this breakneck growth, with China's annual real GDP growth between 2015 and 2018 falling below 7% for the first time since 1991. This was compounded by further shocks from the recent Covid pandemic and the CCP's "zero Covid" policy. Chinese policy post-2008 has increasingly relied upon state investment, improving technology and expanding domestic consumption of finished products. This transition from the previous export economic focus is assessed to be "hedging" against reduced exports due to increasing competition and international pressures such as tariffs. Nonetheless, China's real GDP should still increase 5.7% annually to 2025 and 4.7% annually until 2030, according to Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts. Although there are reasons to doubt these figures - including the provision of misleading data by the Chinese state, and upcoming shocks such as increased nearshoring of supply chains and property market debt bubbles - the overall trend is clear. Chinese real GDP is on course to overtake the US by 2030. How can power be measured between states? There are three main approaches to measuring power in international relations; control over actors, control over outcomes and control over resources. In the case of control over actors, power is usually defined as an actor's ability to shape world politics following its interests. However, Nye argues that it is impossible to measure this ability systematically because it would require a comprehensive understanding of each actor's influence and interest over a potentially infinite number of events. This means that the power over outcomes approach is issue-specific, with analysis not often transferable to other situations. Therefore, it is only useful for retrospective analy...

In der neuen Folge geht es um den KERNBEREICH der EU: Wirtschaft. Dabei haben wir oft gar nicht auf dem Schirm, wie viel die EU da eigentlich regelt von Mindestlöhnen über Arbeitsmigration bis zum Arbeitsschutz. Im Kern geht es natürlich um die Freizügigkeiten in der EU, aber aufgepasst, damit ist kein FKK gemeint! Sondern, dass sich Personen Dienstleistungen, Kapital und Waren frei in der EU bewegen können. Wenn ihr euch darüber noch nie Gedanken gemacht habt, dann hört rein in Folge 5! Crowdfunding für "EU, was geht?" https://www.startnext.com/euwasgeht “EU, was geht” auf Social Media Auf ⁠Instagram⁠ und alles weitere auf in unserer ⁠Linksammlung⁠ Stell uns deine Frage! Per Sprachnachricht auf ⁠Insta ⁠und werde Teil des Podcasts! Deine Frage kann zur Europawahl oder der EU sein, oder sich um konkrete Politikbereiche drehen, z.B. Landwirtschaft, Wirtschaft oder Migration.  Du willst uns unterstützen, die Europawahl bekannter zu machen? - Nutze den ⁠Erinnerungsservice ⁠des Europäischen Parlaments, um per Email an die Wahl erinnert zu werden - Informiere dich zur Wahl: ⁠www.elections.europa.eu/de⁠  - Sprich über die Europawahl und über “EU, was geht?”, abonniert und teilt unseren Podcast und gebt uns 5 Sterne auf Spotify und Apple Podcast.Alle weiteren Infos, wo du uns finden kannst und wie du uns unterstützen kannst, findest du in unserem ⁠Linktree⁠ Gehostet von Radio Alex. Mehr Infos auf ⁠www.alex-berlin.de/radio⁠ Fotos: Lisa Senf Zum Weiterinformieren (Quellenangaben) Handelsvolumen EU: Zahlen und Fakten, EU-Wirtschaft | Europäische Union   Wirtschaftsvolumen, Arbeitslosigkeit: World Economic Outlook (October 2023) - Real GDP growth und European Union - The World Factbook  BPB | European Green Deal  Jugendarbeitslosigkeit: Europa EU-weite Erwerbslosigkeit liegt Februar 2024 bei 6,0  Gleichstellung: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/de/web/sdi/database/gender-equality  Zahlen und Fakten, EU-Wirtschaft | Europäische Union   Premiere: Start des neuen EU-Förderprogramms JTF für sächsische Braunkohleregionen Dienstleistungsfreiheit in der EU – was bedeutet das eigentlich? Apple Strafe: iPhone-Hersteller: Das steckt hinter dem 1,8-Milliarden-Euro-Bußgeld gegen Apple - Wirtschaft - SZ.de Brexit: Großbritannien: Drei Jahre Brexit: Probleme und Sorgen für die Wirtschaft | ZEIT ONLINE und New report reveals UK economy is almost £140billion smaller because of Brexit | London City Hall EU-Lieferkettengesetz - CSR  Fachkräftemangel: Wo in Europa gibt es die meisten offenen Stellen? | Euronews  Zehn Milliarden Euro für eine nachhaltige Kreislaufwirtschaft in der EU | KfW  Recht auf Reparatur: EU-Kommission begrüßt Einigung auf neue Verbraucherrechte 

Google Sheet Link : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fUyu19m-eL26T0IkWA56F6TzPxbTh_v2IgjSOk__95U/edit?usp=sharing - Data Source : The Hindu Newspaper Editorial dated Feb 12 & 13 under the title "Decoding India's Economic Realities" - Cat and Robo discuss the performance of both goverments with respect to important macro economic indicators such as Real GDP, Per Capita, Investments, Consumption etc. - Do hear the full episode and let us know your thoughts! - Binge Listen to all Note Panra episodes from 1st with this

Today on the show, we welcome back Director of quantitative market strategy Denise Chisholm. She discusses the Fed's next possible move, her current market thesis, and what sectors are on her radar. Denise talks about durable recovery in terms of sectors. She says labor costs, good prices, and PPI came down faster than CPI. Technology was the first to be in the earnings recession, however it is now the first out. She sees a great setup for post-recessionary recovery and adds we are not in a situation where investors should be thinking about underweighting technology stocks. Denise touches on the Fed's decisions on interest rate cuts saying they are not too concerned with the equity market. She adds there is very little correlation between acceleration of growth to the acceleration of inflation. The sweet spot would be an inflation rate above 2%. The sweet spot for equities is between 3 to 4% with Real GDP growth higher. She also highlights top sectors as consumer discretionary, and technology and bottom sectors as energy, consumer staples and utilities.   Recorded on February 29, 2024.   At Fidelity, our mission is to build a better future for Canadian investors and help them stay ahead. We offer investors and institutions a range of innovative and trusted investment portfolios to help them reach their financial and life goals. Fidelity mutual funds and ETFs are available by working with a financial advisor or through an online brokerage account. Visit fidelity.ca/howtobuy for more information. For the third year in a row, FidelityConnects by Fidelity Investments Canada was ranked the #1 podcast by Canadian financial advisors in the 2023 Environics' Advisor Digital Experience Study.

Our Chief U.S. Equity Strategist reviews how the unusual mix of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy has benefited a small number of companies – and why investors should still look beyond the top five stocks.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the investment implications of the unusual policy mix we face.It's Monday, February 26th at 12pm in New York. So let's get after it.Four years ago, I wrote a note entitled, The Other 1 Percenters, in which I discussed the ever-growing divide between the haves and have-nots. This divide was not limited to consumers but also included corporates as well. Fast forward to today, and it appears this gap has only gotten wider.Real GDP growth is similar to back then, while nominal GDP growth is about 100 basis points higher due to inflation. Nevertheless, the earnings headwinds are just as strong despite higher nominal GDP – as many companies find it harder to pass along higher costs without damaging volumes. As a result, market performance is historically narrow. With the top five stocks accounting for a much higher percentage of the S&P 500 market cap than they did back in early 2020. In short, the equity market understands that this economy is not that great for the average company or consumer but is working very well for the top 1 per cent. In my view, the narrowness is also due to a very unusual mix of loose fiscal and tight monetary policy. Since the pandemic, the fiscal support for the economy has run very hot. Despite the fact we are operating in an extremely tight labor market, significant fiscal spending has continued.In many ways, this hefty government spending may be working against the Fed. And could explain why the economy has been slow to respond to generationally aggressive interest rate hikes. Most importantly, the government's heavy hand appears to be crowding out the private economy and making it difficult for many companies and individuals. Hence the very narrow performance in stocks and the challenges facing the average consumer. The other policy variable at work is the massive liquidity being provided by various funding facilities – like the reverse repo to pay for these deficits. Since the end of 2022, the reverse repo has fallen by over $2 trillion. It's another reason that financial conditions have loosened to levels not seen since the federal funds rate was closer to 1 per cent. This funding mechanism is part of the policy mix that may be making it challenging for the Fed's rate hikes to do their intended work on the labor market and inflation. It may also help explain why the Fed continues to walk back market expectations about the timing of the first cut and perhaps the number of cuts that are likely to continue this year. Higher interest rates are having a dampening effect on interest-rate-sensitive businesses like housing and autos as well as low to middle income consumers. This is exacerbating the 1 percenter phenomena and helps explain why the market's performance remains so stratified. For many businesses and consumers, rates remain too high. However, the recent hotter than expected inflation reports suggest the Fed may not be able to deliver the necessary rate cuts for the markets to broaden out – at least until the government curtails its deficits and stops crowding out the private economy. Parenthetically, the funding of fiscal deficits may be called into question by the bond market when the reverse repo runs out later this year. Bottom line: despite investors' desire for the equity market to broaden out, we continue to recommend investors focus on high-quality growth and operational efficiency factors when looking for stocks outside of the top five which appear to be fully priced. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Thank you for listening to the 45th episode of "This Week's Economy." Today, I cover: 1) National: DeSantis drops out of the race, and New Hampshire primary results put Trump and Haley fairly close, so what happens next? Real GDP for Q4 2023 was up 3.3%, but the contribution of costly, unproductive government spending makes the real private GDP rate lower. The stock market has been better under Trump than Biden through three years of their terms, but Trump can't necessarily take the credit. Will he try?  Grocery prices have moderated but have still outpaced earnings since 2019; what does it mean to you? Why the tax code shouldn't serve as social engineering, but why does Congress try? 2) States: National School Choice Week highlights which states need to provide universal education freedom. Is your state next?  My new paper with Sal Nuzzo of the James Madison Institute notes how Florida can reduce its sales tax burden, but will they do it?   State-level jobs report reveals that job growth is slow across most states, but Texas leads in job creation. How does your state do? 3) My Media Hits & Other: My recent commentary reveals what's really going on in the labor market. My latest bonus LPP episode with Brad Swail of Texas Talks shares my thoughts on the economy, Texas, property taxes, immigration, and more. Last week's LPP episode with ⁠Matt Mitchell⁠ reveals how Estonia is freer than the U.S.  Set your alarms for Monday so you don't miss my upcoming episode with Dr. Bruce Caldwell on Friedrich Hayek and much more. Please like this video, subscribe to the channel, share it on social media, and provide a rating and review. Also, subscribe and see show notes for this episode on Substack (www.vanceginn.substack.com) and visit my website for economic insights (www.vanceginn.com).

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.* Sports recap* Market update* MSFT Co-pilot launches and surpasses APPL in market cap* Amazon bails out regional sports networks* Benson Boone Soft Launches his hit single Beautiful things* Recommendations and LinksListen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.Market Update

1/9/24) Wall Street begins a new round of quarterly earnings, looking at the results of Q4; estimates for 2024 are allready falling. What are you really paying for earnings? Why we have to be in ETF's, even though we don't like them. There is evidence of an uptick in inflation this year. Markets miss achieving January Trifecta by .13%, despite tax gain selling pressure. Will January be similarly weak? We polled our viewers/listeners for their takes on what 2024 will hold: Polling the People includes commentary on S&P 500 Seasonality and bullish sentiment, and where the markets may end in 2024. There's an expectation for negative returns, higher inflation, slower economic growth and Real GDP; higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and the odds for recession. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer SEG-1: Q4 Earnings Season Begins SEG-2: Polling the People, Pt.1 SEG-3: Polling the People, Pt.2 SEG-4: Markets Within 1% of All-time Highs -------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpPOCfwlB-M&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=14s -------- Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Missed It "By That Much"" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra4-I32Ir1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=81s ------- Our previous show is here: "Keep An Eye on Bankruptcies" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8nFis1l8Xw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "2024 Market & Economic Outlook According To Twitter" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/2024-market-economic-outlook-according-to-twitter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #Inflation #Recession #InterestRates #EarningsSeason #Markets #Money #Investing

1/9/24) Wall Street begins a new round of quarterly earnings, looking at the results of Q4; estimates for 2024 are allready falling. What are you really paying for earnings? Why we have to be in ETF's, even though we don't like them. There is evidence of an uptick in inflation this year. Markets miss achieving January Trifecta by .13%, despite tax gain selling pressure. Will January be similarly weak? We polled our viewers/listeners for their takes on what 2024 will hold: Polling the People includes commentary on S&P 500 Seasonality and bullish sentiment, and where the markets may end in 2024. There's an expectation for negative returns, higher inflation, slower economic growth and Real GDP; higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and the odds for recession. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer SEG-1: Q4 Earnings Season Begins SEG-2: Polling the People, Pt.1 SEG-3: Polling the People, Pt.2 SEG-4: Markets Within 1% of All-time Highs -------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpPOCfwlB-M&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=14s -------- Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:  https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Missed It "By That Much"" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra4-I32Ir1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=81s ------- Our previous show is here: "Keep An Eye on Bankruptcies" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8nFis1l8Xw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "2024 Market & Economic Outlook According To Twitter" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/2024-market-economic-outlook-according-to-twitter/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #Inflation #Recession #InterestRates #EarningsSeason #Markets #Money #Investing

China continues to face the triple challenge of debt, deflation and demographics. But are investors missing an opportunity in China equities? ----- Transcript -----Laura Wang:] Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist. Robin Xing: And I'm Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Economist. Laura Wang: On this special episode of the podcast, we'll discuss our 2024 outlook for China's economy and equity market and what investors should focus on next year. It's Tuesday, December 12th, 9 a.m. in Hong Kong. Laura Wang: Robin, China's post reopening recovery has been lackluster in 2023, disappointing expectations. We've seen significant challenges in housing and local government financing vehicles, which are pressuring the Chinese economy to the verge of a debt deflation loop. Can you explain some of these current dynamics? Robin Xing: China is in this difficult battle against the it's 3D problems, namely debt, deflation and demographics. China has stepped up reflationary measures since the July Politburo meeting, including immediate budgetary expansion, kick start of local government debt resolution and easing on the housing sector. Growth also bottomed out from its second quarter trough. That said, the reflationary journey remains gradual and bumpy. In particular, the downturn in the housing sector and its spillover to local government are still lingering. And it might take some time until it converges to a new steady state. Against this backdrop, we expect China to continue to roll out stronger and more coordinated fiscal, monetary and housing easing policies. Laura Wang: What measures does China need to undertake to avoid a debt deflation loop? Robin Xing: Well, there is no easy way out. We think China needs a systematic macro solution, including both cyclical stimulus and structural reforms, to decisively fend off a debt deflation loop. In particular, we proposed a 5R action plan. Reflation, Rebalance, Restructuring, Reform and Rekindle. So that includes reflecting the economy with policy stimulus to support aggregate demand. Rebalancing the economy towards consumption with structural initiatives such as fiscal transfer to the households. Restructuring balance sheets of troubled sectors, including property and financing league of Local Government. Reforming the SOE's of the public sector and rekindle the private sectors animal spirit. So far, Beijing has only completed 25% of the 5R strategy, led by some stimulus in reflation sector and also restructuring its local debt. We expect the progress to reach 50% by end 2024, and China could lead to this debt deflation loop in about two years after 2025. Laura Wang: Debt and deflation are 2 of the 3D's in what you call China's 3D journey. Demographics is the third challenge on this list. Why are demographics an economic headwind and how is China handling this challenge now? Robin Xing: Well, Laura, there is a little dispute on China's aging population. This will diminish capital returns and drag growth. So in our long term growth forecast, labor quantity will lower overall GDP growth by 40 basis points every year between 2025 to 2030. Though the declining labor quantity is unlikely to be reversed, Beijing would make more efforts in better utilizing higher labor quality, which has been increasing steadily. On that front, Beijing could step up reviving private sector confidence, which will bring more jobs and translate to labor with higher education into stronger output. Detailed measures could include, they start to issue the financial license to FinTech and resumption of offshore IPO by firms with sensitive data. That could send a clearer message to the end of regulatory reset since 2021. Laura Wang: With all these macro backdrops, what are your expectations for GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, and what are some of the biggest economic challenges facing China over this forecast horizon? Robin Xing: Well, we expect a modest growth recovery next year. Real GDP growth could edge up mildly from 4% two year kegger in 2023 to a slightly better 4.2% in 24. And the GDP deflator, which is a broader defined inflation indicator, it could rebound from a -.8% in this year, to .6% in 2024. But this is still way below a 2 to 3%, the level of inflation. So China will continue to grow and reflate at a subpar rate next year. The biggest challenge here is stabilizing the aggregate demand amid continued housing and the local government deleveraging. That requires more debt initially, particularly by the central government, to cushion this downturn. We expect a 1.5% point widening in China's government deficit next year. Led by a rising official budget and some increase in local special purpose bond. Monetary policy will likely remain accommodative as well. We expect a 25 basis point cut and the cumulatively another 20 basis points interest rate cuts in 2024. Now, Laura, turning it over to you. Over the past the year, the debate on investing in China has shifted profoundly towards long term structural challenges, we just discussed. And you have argued that this would continue into 2024. So what is your outlook for Chinese equities within the global EM framework over the next year? Laura Wang: We see a largely range bound market at best in our base case for China equity market at the index level. For example, our price target for MSCI China by end of 2024 is 60, suggesting very limited upside from its current level. Such upside puts China very much on par with what we expect from the broader emerging market index, MSCI EM. Therefore, we retain our equal weight rating on China within our EM API allocation framework. There will still be quite strong headwinds on corporate earnings as we go through the earnings results season for the rest of the year and then into the first quarter of 2024. This could lead to continuous downward revisions of consensus estimates. For example, we Morgan Stanley expect 9% earnings growth for MSCI China in 2024 compared to consensus at 16%, which we think is overly positive. Such downward revisions could also cap the valuation rerating opportunities. Robin Xing: Given this backdrop, Laura, how should investors be positioned in 2024 in terms of Chinese equities? Laura Wang: The Asia market, if we use CSI 300 as a proxy, has been outperforming the offshore MSCI China index for five years in a row. We expect this trend to continue at least in the next 3 to 6 months, given that the top down easing policies are starting to pivot to further support economic growth. And Robin, you are still expecting some easing on the monetary side with PSI rate cuts and the triple R cuts. Those usually tend to have a bigger impact on the Asia market than on the offshore space. Plus, I think we're also expecting some further currency weakness in the first half of next year and A-shares tend to be more resilient in such a scenario. Robin Xing: Finally, Laura, what is the market missing right now when it comes to Chinese equities? Laura Wang: As investors are still debating over the beta opportunities being largely absent for the past couple of years. We think some investors may easily come to the conclusion that there are not good investment opportunities in China anymore. We disagree with that. There are still plenty of alpha generating opportunities and particularly high quality names in the growth categories who can offer a strong earnings and ROE track record, good management teams and limited reliance on foreign technology input or on domestic government policy support. We believe those names can offer strong downside protection and help minimize your portfolio's volatility, while also offer the upside from their respective growing sectors when the market turns around. We have put together selected names that we believe meeting these criteria, and we call them the China best business model. Laura Wang: Robin, thanks a lot for taking the time to talk. Robin Xing: Great speaking with you, Laura. Laura Wang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

This week's podcast has us looking into a number of pretty big changes taking place in our economy this month, along with a close examination of both the November Real Estate Stats for Vancouver and the impact of the decision by the BOC, to further hold rates.With the BoC having maintained interest rates at 5%, in line with expectations due to a slowing economy and decreasing inflation rates, marks the third consecutive hold, reminiscent of the pattern observed in 2020 when rates remained at 0.25% for almost two years! The current stability hints at a potentially stabilizing economic landscape, with attention shifting to the possibility of rate cuts in the new year.The decision to hold rates is influenced by a softer-than-expected October inflation reading at 3.1% y/y. Gasoline price declines, contributing to a 0.1% m/m drop in the headline index, were a key factor. Core inflation, which the BOC monitors, decelerated from 4.0% to 3.8%. The combination of falling inflation, a weakening labor market, and subdued economic growth indicates a further holding in rate hikes, with expectations of rate cuts as early as April next year.Arrears rates have increased slightly to 0.16%, with Saskatchewan having the highest rate at 0.58%. The podcast discusses the government's response to potential challenges in mortgage renewals through the "Canadian Mortgage Charter." However, it's noted that the charter lacks legal backing, presenting it more as a symbolic gesture than a concrete policy shift.The GDP fell by an annualized rate of 1.1% in Q3, below the BOC's expected 0.8% growth. Real GDP per capita has declined for a fifth consecutive quarter, indicating a weakening economy. Meanwhile, recent cooling in the bond market is anticipated to result in savings for those seeking fixed-rate mortgage products in the latter half of 2025 or 2026.Predictions about rate cuts are prevalent now, with markets pricing in 3 to 4 quarter-point cuts by the end of next year. While this may benefit some mortgage holders, there's also the potential negative impact on the economy, especially considering factors like job losses and negative GDP continue to get worse.Local November sales statistics for Vancouver didn't change much, noting a 4.7% sales volume increase from November 2022 but a significant drop in sales volume of 17% m/m. Inventory remains a central theme and a sales-to-active ratio officially indicating Vancouver is in a balanced market. Prices have seen a 1% decrease from October 2023, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines but still reflecting a 4.9% increase over November 2022.Tune in and get the full story on our ever-changing Vancouver real estate landscape.  _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Jim Bianco joins CNBC to discuss No Landing, Real GDP Growth, Sticky Inflation & the End of TINA with Kelly Evans, Steve Liesman & Nancy Tengler.

Asia's economic recovery could continue to be out of step with the rest of the world. Hear which countries are positioned for growth and which might face challenges. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today, I'll discuss 2024 Economics Outlook for Asia. It's Tuesday, December 5 at 9 a.m. in Hong Kong. It used to be the case that business cycles across Asian economies were in sync. But after the Covid shock, global trade and global growth have moved out of sync. Growth in Asia has diverged at times from global growth momentum. Moreover, in this cycle, the inflation picture is very different across Asian economies. So in contrast to previous cycles, we have to be more focused on nominal GDP growth. Real GDP growth, which is nominal GDP growth, adjusted for inflation, has been divergent across Asian economies during this cycle. And we think Asia's recovery will remain asynchronous vis a vis the rest of the world. Looking at the three largest economies in the region, we are more constructive on the outlook for nominal GDP growth for India and Japan, while we think China's nominal GDP growth will be constrained. Why is this? First, we think China is facing a challenge in managing aggregate demand and inflationary pressures from deleveraging of local government and property companies balance sheets. Policymakers have embarked on coordinated monetary and fiscal easing, which would help to bring about a modest recovery in 2024. But the deleveraging challenges are intense, and so the path ahead will still be bumpy. Moreover, we believe that inflation will remain low, which means corporate pricing power will be weak, and that could present a challenge for corporate profitability. Second, we are seeing a momentous shift in Japan's nominal GDP growth trajectory. Japan has exited deflation decisively, supported mainly by its accommodative policy and with some help from global factors. Against this backdrop, nominal GDP growth reached a 30 year high in the second quarter of 2023. Improving inflation dynamics mean that we see that Bank of Japan exiting negative rates and removing yield curve control in early 2024. But we believe the BOJ will not tighten macro policies aggressively, which should ensure a robust nominal GDP growth of 3.8% in 2024. Finally, we believe that India remains the best opportunity within the region. Nominal GDP growth is expanding rapidly and we think a pickup in private capital investment cycle will sustain productivity growth. Policymakers have been implementing supply side reform and that has already boosted public CapEx. A virtuous cycle is already underway in India and nominal GDP growth will be expanding at double digit growth rates. To sum up, Asia's recovery remains asynchronous relative to the rest of the world, and idiosyncratic drivers still matter more during the cycle. We are constructive on the outlook for India and Japan, however, structural challenges will constrain China's growth path. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review and Apple podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy We look at 3 key drivers for next year: first, falling bond yields. We called in October to position for a long duration trade, on the back of likely finished Fed, continued deceleration in inflation, activity softening, and post a big bond selloff. As the move lower in bond yields gains traction, it is initially seen as a positive for equities, but that supportive effect might not hold for too long. Second, sequential activity slowdown vs this year. Our economists are projecting 2024 real GDP growth in almost all key regions at a slower run rate than what transpired this year. Importantly, for 3 quarters in a row next year US real GDP growth is forecast to be between 0-1%. This stall speed is not leaving any margin for error, and it is consistent with underwhelming earnings delivery. While recession is not our base case, it doesn't take much to tip the activity into contraction at such a low starting point. Crucially, unlike a year ago, when almost all economists and the market pricing had recession as a base case, both are in a soft landing camp now - perhaps one should be contrarian yet again. Third, while consensus is looking for earnings pickup in 2024, weaker pricing might lead to disappointments. At sector level, we look for bond proxies such as Real Estate and Utilities to outperform, and have recently cut European Banks to UW. We also find consumer and corporate cyclicals stretched, post a strong run, and have cut a number to UW. Regionally, we continue to find Japan as attractive. Lastly, despite typically favourable seasonals in December/January, current technicals look far from attractive, with SPX RSI in outright overbought territory. This podcast was recorded on 03 December 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4575554-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Mary Barra, GM CEO, discusses the company's announcement of its biggest-ever buyback plan, and says she expects 'strong adoption' of more affordable EVs. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates & Currencies Strategist, says the biggest risk right now is another sudden shock in the oil market. Scott Nuttall, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Co-CEO, discusses his firm's acquisition of insurer Global Atlantic. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the state of services in the economy could threaten the Fed's 2% inflation goal. Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, reflects on the legendary life and career of Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder, previews brand-new episodes of Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations" featuring AIG CEO Peter Zaffino and Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. John Ferrell with Mary Burrow, I want to go through some of the numbers for our audience. Divid end up thirty three percent, biggest ever buyback plan ten billion dollars, forty billion dollar name yesterday. Just some context perspective there that is massive inquiring minds. Mary will want to know why have you decided to deliver a ten billion dollar buy back shortly after you've signed a labor contract that adds nine point three billion to expenses over its term. Well, as we looked at what was happening from a labor perspective, we had built and really the labor environment going into our negotiations, we had put conservative estimates into our plan. So although it was a little higher than what we expected, we believe that we have and our guidance for next year, we've already said that we'll be able to offset that completely with the plan that we already had of a two billion dollar cost out perspective. So we did the right thing to recognize our manufacturing team members who have done a great job and continue to build vehicles safely with high quality. And we also thought that we've got to look and make sure that we're balanced across all of our stakeholders, and our owners are very important. So we think this was a very balanced response when we look at what was done from a labor perspective and what we're doing as part of our capital allocation framework for our owners. Well, let's get into that. So shareholders are super happy. The name is up by almost eleven percent so far this morning. I wonder if you aw Wiz Mary, they didn't get the forty percent they wanted. They got twenty five plus cost of living adjustments and other things as well. Is the old things of this morning not something that concerns you. When I look at it, I think it's balanced. Again, we have very well compensated and you know, when you look at the suite of benefits that our represented team members have it's a very very appropriate package and frankly leading from an industry perspective broader than just the auto industry. So I think we did the right thing to recognize and reward the hard work of our manufacturing team members across the board. But also one of the things our manufacturing team members very much value is job security. And to have job security, you have to have a strong company and you have to look at all of your stakeholders. So what we did from a share buyback perspective for our owners is I think a very balanced response. As you know, this move this morning not just about the capital return program, also about cost cuts. We know you're looking to fully offset that labor contract the additional costs from it. Have you identified where you will cut where you need to cut? Yes, a lot of this was already underway. At the beginning of this year calendar year twenty twenty three, we announced it too, billion dollar cost reduction structural cost reduction between twenty three and the end of twenty four. That's well underway. As I said, we also comprehended that we would have increases in our labor cost as we looked at what the environment was and also wanting to reward our manufacturing employees. So you know there's work going across many aspects of the business and including making our products more efficient while still having the features, the functionality and beautiful designs that our customers want. So there's been a concentrated effort at the company to lower our fixed costs while enabling wonderful products and rewarding the team that is helping us deliver them. Clearly, these are additional costs. Are they forcing a change in execution or a change in strategy? Definitely not a change in strategy. Our strategy is clear. It's really based on four pillars of executing our strong internal combustion engine program vehicles, and we see we're performing very well in the market and we see that we're below the average incentives. I think that speaks to the strength of our internal combustion engine products. From an EVY perspective, we have confidence in the portfolio we have. We're a bit disappointed this year that we were constrained by the automation to build modules. So this is not something that is fundamentally an issue with Altium. It was more manufacturing automation issue that we're working and we'll be out of it by middle of next year and making improvement every quarter from that perspective. Also software and this year. Earlier this year, Mike Abbott joined our team who brings tremendous software expertise and he's built a very strong team that we'll share more about when we get to our investor day in March of next year. And then autonomy and when you look at autonomous vehicles and the importance of this technology and the talent that we have at Cruise. We are doing an independent review from an incident perspective but also overall from a safety perspective, and that will guide our path forward there. But we have a very capable team there. So the four pillars of our strategy have not changed at all. What has changed is our tactics, and our tactics are changing because of the world is changing. We never thought that the EV adoption would necessarily be a straight line. We've seen this in other markets, we're seeing it now in the US. But I think the thing that everybody has to remember, if the growth is slowing, it is still growing. And we think as we get more of the EV products we have this year into next, we think we're going to see is strong adoption for our products, and as the charging infrastructure continues to be more robust, we think that's going to drive adoption as well as having affordable evs. And that's where when you look at the Chevrolet Equinox as well as the Blazer and the Bolt that's coming, we're going to be having products in that range of affordable vehicles. That is going to be very important from EV adoption. Two things to unpack there. One is robot taxis. The other is EV. So let's deal with robot taxis. First, your counting expenses on crews substantially, just how committed are you there? I remember only a number of years ago we were talking about bringing in fifty billion in revenue by twenty thirty, and I get it. Married We'll understand that new tech is tough to develop, its to deploy. I think we're seeing that across a range of issues. But when do you know if it's the right time just to walk away from this well, I think the first of all, when you look at the progress that the Cruise team has made over the eight last eight years when General Motors acquired crews, I think it's substantial and we've already demonstrated that the cruise vehicle can perform at a level that's safer than a human driver. Let's not forget over forty thousand people on average lose their lives in traffic accidents in the US alone, and ninety percent of them are caused by human error. What we have learned with this incident is it's got to be significantly better than a human driver to drive adoption, and we have to do a much better job of working with the regulators. That's something that GM has a long reputation of working and being transparent with regulators at the local, state, and federal level. So I think as we do that and get the results of the independent review we're doing, that will guide us on our path forward. From an AV perspective, I'm always interested in how we know when we're wrong an exit size I think everyone has to go through, including myself married. But on this topic of EV's the slow down, what's behind it and why aren't we just learning that American consumers just don't want these cars? Well, I don't think it's that American consumers just don't want these cars. I think there still is limited availability when you look at the choice that customers had today, from an internal combustion vehicle perspective, I think a lot of the evs that are out right now are more expensive. You've got to look at where the sweet spot of the market is, and when you really want to win an EV's you've got to make sure that you are meeting the customer who only owns one vehicle. That's the bulk of people who buy vehicles today, new vehicles. They only own one vehicle or if they have two in their family. They're needed every day to earning their livelihoods. So we've got to get affordable. There's got to be a robust charging infrastructure. So again, the growth hasn't gone in reverse. It's slowing. I think we never expected. We thought it would be have some bumps along the way. I think that's what we're seeing right now. But I think when we have evs that are affordable, when people realize how much fun they are to drive and the performance and they're not giving anything up, and then that all important charging infrastructure, I think you know we're going to see them start to grow at a more rapid break again. And that's something that we'll continue to watch. And that's why we've changed some of our tactics to be responsive to where the customer is. You've been super generous with your time. Marriage. Just want to fit in one further question. Right now, you're a forty three billion dollar name. It's a big move this morning by ten percent. The forward multiple we're talking about four times expected earnings a little more than that after today's move. The stock has been dead money for the best part of a decade. You've been doing this a long time. I know you're super close with investors. What is it that you think is in this plan, this strategy that you have and a strategy that you've suggested this morning hasn't changed that's going to turn this around. Well, I think demonstrating our commitment to all of our stakeholders and the I think when you look at a ten billion dollar accelerated buyback program, it should signal because it means we have confidence in the cash generation ability of this company. We have confidence in our strategy across the four pillars that I covered. Yes, we had some challenges that this year with our ultim based evs that I think gabe investors some concern, But we're demonstrating the confidence that we and the board have that we're executing the strategy, and we're going to see growth, strong cash flow and strong margins. That's what we're going to deliver. That's captured in today's move nine percent. Mary, appreciate your time ready tell you thanks for catching up with us, Mary Parda of GM too. Wiseman joins us right now. Global Efects interest rate strategist much more than that at Macquarie, with lots and lots of experience on this. I love the first sentence of your note. Don't believe the hype You've been skeptical. Are you combining and dovetailing in with your low rate call a true slowdown in the economy? Yes? Absolutely. I think the narrative these days from Wall Street that I've seen in the last few weeks is that the reason the ten year field has been coming down is because we're in a disinflationary phase here in the economy, and there's going to be more disinflation to come in the US. I agree with that we are going to see disinflation in the US. It's going to come in rants, it's going to come in those eras of the CPI that are linked to consumer discretionary spending. But let's Also keep in mind one of the reasons we're going to see this disinflation is because the consumer is slowing. And there you have the don't believe the hype story, right, I don't believe the story is about record breaking Black Thursdays, by Friday sales and Cyber Monday sales. I think what I think these sales were on the back of heavy discounting. If you look at what some of these corporate execs had said prior to the start of the holiday spending season, they talked about having to cut prices. We'll all Marty even talked about deflation. So this is this is about disinflation. But let's keep in mind where this this inflation is going to come from. It's going to come from a weakening and pricing power at the consumer product and services level. It's going to be driven by slow down in agurate demand in the US. Also about how they're pank for this stuff Binapailita. You look at some of the numbers just booming. What do you take away from that? So my takeaway is from a macroeconomic perspective, what it does is it shifts spending to the early part of the season because normally you would have to save up a few more shekels as you approach your deadline on December twenty fifth to get those purchases done with by now, pay later. You don't need to do that, so it allows you to spend earlier, especially if you don't have access to revolving credit or credit cards. So I think that's another reason why we might have seen the so called record breaking days on last Friday and Monday. But again, if that's if it's the case that spending was only pulled forward, it doesn't mean that in aggregate for the whole of the season we're going to get that much that much hype. So far, people have viewed weaker US data as a positive. It's both been for a bond rally and a stock rally, And you're saying that we could see that bond rally continue quite significantly going forward. Will there be a diversion so in terms of risk asseesis or have to be to fuel a bond rally that goes much deeper than where we are now. Absolutely, to let the bond rally extend to say where the ten yure yield gets the three percent, I do think it has to be associated with a sell off at risk assets. I don't think you know, to get that kind of forceful move early in the bond market, you need to have some sort of dislocation in risk ASTs, some sort of drop in stocks, but over time, not necessarily. I think we can see a situation where, if this inflation continues slowly, you get the bond deal going down to where it was, let's say in the spring. Three and a half percent is not inconceivable without a stock market drop as long as it happens slowly and steadily. But well, corporations adapt. If I go back to bear Stearns, where you're held court, you had an entire security analysis team looking at these slowdowns, I don't buy the gloom. And the corporations, like General Motors, will adapt. I'm not sure what they're going to adapt to. Technological progress and changes. They can adapt to. Government policies that spur more investment in electric vehicles and clean energy technologies they can adapt to. But what do you do when you have excess inventory as the auto dealers do? Now? What do you do when the banks and the finance companies are cutting off credit to auto buyers? What do you do? Then you're not in control of that situation. You're in control of what's happening on your factory floor, You're in control of promotions, and maybe the way you adapt is by cutting prices. Let's face it, that's a way of adapting to to hold on to market share in the face of excess inventories, in the face of consumers slowing their demand. So yeah, they can adapt, but it's not necessarily in a way that is going to make their stock prices shoot up. You've identified a series of places in this economy where we could see lower prices retail, Walmart, talked about the auto makers, We're talking about GM, maybe lower prices, going to see that come through the pipeline soon. What's the biggest threat that still lingers for you? The biggest threat to that view that this disinflation continue through next year, it's supply shocks. I think the lesson of twenty twenty twenty two and early twenty twenty three was that we cannot control what happens in the rest of the world, especially as it pertains to the supply of oil, the supply of natural gas. So from my perspective, if we get another shock in that market, and by the way, it doesn't have to be because of a war, although in the past two years that has been the case. It could be simply that OPEC plus decides to curtail supply and we get a brand going back up to the low nineties as a result of that. Again, it's a question of how much they curtail supply by, but that's the biggest risk right now. The good news is that gasoline prices in the US have been falling for six weeks straight, I think, and steadily. I think that's going to show up in the CPI by the time we rolled around to seeing the November numbers and the December numbers. But the real reason that the CPI is going to still see disinflation is because rents rents in the new tenant market and the new lease market are coming down. That's going to put a lot of pressu ultimately on the yellows as measures of rents of primary residences. We're going to get that disinflation over the next few months. This is exactly what nil Data of Renaisance Macro is talking about tom the disinflation that's in the pipeline for rents for used cars, which is why based on what Walla said yesterday, it's not that much of an if for the likes of Terry, for the likes of Nil Duta, which is why they think you're going to get this conversation early next year about which you said interest rates. Yeah, there's no question there's a school of thought out there that this is not if. It's just simply when in the path to it. But I would dovetail it back to the labor economy, which we've barely touched on today, and we've got claims coming up here Thursday. And then you mentioned the late jobs report for November. I believe it's December eighth. But the basic idea here, John is when does a labor economy finally go? If you get a labor economy to go, you get there instantly. Claims two O nine, keep going back to two nine claims to eighty one economy in so many different ways over the last eighteen months or so. Terry, it's going to see it, Terry wi there at Macquarie longer going far away. There was KKR nineteen seventy six with history made in a style and a method. At KKR it was original. Shanale Basset gets an update from their co CEO Shanale, Good morning, Thank you, Tom. I'm standing by with the co CEO of KKR, Scott not All, and it is a really big day for KKR because they are doing this. They're buying the rest of Global Atlantic, a big insurance company that they don't already own. That is an all cash, two point seven billion dollar deal. But you're also creating a new unit at KKR that houses a core private equity business. If you had to give the market one way to understand what you're trying to do over there, what is it? First of all, Shanali, great to be with you, Thanks for having me. Really, what we're trying to do today is lay out the big three growth engines we have as a firm. So you're right, we are buying the minority stake in Global Atlantic we don't already own. We already owned sixty three percent of the companies, so we're buying the other thirty seven percent. Global Atlantic has been a great partnership for us. This is a transaction we did in twenty twenty one. The company is more than doubled since we announced the original deal in July of twenty twenty and it's been highly recurring a lot of growth earnings for KKR, so that's part one. We are also modifying our compensation ratios so our asset management business continues to scale. Our run rate management fees have doubled over the last three years. So the second thing we're doing is reducing the compensation ratioon fees, making an offsetting increase on kerry, and that will allow us to create more fee related earnings for our shareholder. You're changing the way you pay people, in effect, not the aggregate amount of compensation, but we're providing more of the fee related earnings to our shareholders, a little bit more carry to our people. The net of that is about neutral, but it will mean more of few related earnings overall. And then the third thing we're doing to your point, and this is relatively new for us, is we're creating a new segment for the firm. So we've historically reported as asset management and insurance. We are adding a new segment called Strategic Holdings. And what we will include in there are the dividends that we're receiving and will begin to receive in greater magnitude from our core private equity portfolio, which is a portfolio of great diversified recession resistant companies that we've been building up over the last several years. KKR, Apollo, Brookfield, they're all buying insurance companies. All of you are diversifying in pretty meaningful ways if you think about it. It's made private equity, by the dollars, by the assets under management, a smaller part of all of your businesses. What does this mean for the future of private equity? Private equity is still a growth business for us. We expect to continue to grow that part of KKR for a long time, both with respect to the flagship strategies, but also we've created a number of different growth strategies. The core private equity business is part of private equity that's now a thirty billion dollar franchise for us. So this isn't about an ore. This is about an and we see an ability to grow PE and all the other parts of KKR, and we've diversified meaningfully over the course of the last ten to fifteen years. We're just continuing our way down that path. Now, what does Global Atlantic exactly do. It seems like what it's really doing is giving you a whole balance sheet to be using to compete on you've mentioned capital markets is one place there's been a lot of competition from your industry to the banks. How does this help you now compete in a bigger way? Sure, Global Atlantic, as you know, it's largely issued annuities to individuals, and so if you think about what we do at KKRE, we work for pensioners, retirement retirees all around the world now family offices and individual investors as well. Global Atlantic distributes its products to that same kind of an audience. So historically we've worked for tens of millions of retirees. We still do, but now they're just in the form of policyholders. And that's our mission at KKR is to actually do a great job for all those people that we work for. We're not confused about who our bosses are. And so to the second part of your question on capital markets, what Global Atlantic allows us to do is create more synergy. We didn't necessarily see all this three years ago when we started our way down this path, but we think there's even more we can do to unlock value between the two companies, and capital markets is just one of those examples. Capital markets means you might be appearing on more and more deals lending a balance sheet to provide capital for big buyouts and other leverage loan deals. That's right, and we're already in that business. So the way that we built our capital markets business is by partnering with a Street, So we'll be alongside of the traditional banks and investment banks as we built that business. But what Global Atlantic brings us is an ability to expand the vision for that franchise. So there's more to do across asset based finance. As an example, more, when Global Atlantic does their large institutional block transactions, we can put some of the Global Atlantic balance sheet. GA has its own sidecard third party capital funds called IVY, so some can go into those third party funds, and then we can syndicate the excess through our capital markets forranchise as well. Just like we do private equity and infrastructure transactions, it applies to insurance deals as well. Something interesting about these deals is that you already have told investors this morning that this will add twenty percent to total operating earnings. You're boosting your targets into twenty twenty six for few related earnings. What are the real financial impacts? What can stockholders feel for KKR over the next two three years, well, I think what they'll be able to see is we are going to grow all three of our recurring forms of earnings in a much more meaningful way going forward, So a few related earnings will be higher. We continue to see a lot of organic growth in our businesses. Just by changing our compensation ratios, you get accretion on few related earnings, and we think by virtue of what we're renouncing today, we can do even more. With the Global Atlantic where we invest that portfolio, it's already gone from seventy two billion of AUM when we announced the transaction to one hundred and fifty eight billion over the last few years. We think we can do even more together. But they'll also see more insurance operating earnings, which we believe are highly recurring and fast growing. And then we'll have this third element, which will be the core private equity dividends showing up in the strategic holding segment. If you put those three things together, we think that'll be seventy percent or more of our overall pre tax income is those three forms of recurring earnings, and we're going to introduce them a new metric around that called operating earnings and we'll talk about that later today with our shareholders. Scott, we do have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us on a big day over at KKR. Tom shout on the basic Thank you so much with a gentleman from KKR in the future of what they do, joining us now, Lawyer. I'm chief US economist at FS Investments. On an eight point nine percent nominal GDP America, Laurie, what's so great about your economics is you've got it from the litmus paper of the FX market. How alone is the United States with an eight point nine percent nominal GDP. When Rishie Sonak is telling Francy Qua he's worried about austerity, I think we are still the growth continued to just surprise to the upside, and to me, it's remarkable the inconsistency between talking about rake cuts to you know, this idea that we're going to need rake cuts in the near term to support the economy, or the short term idea that we've seen the labor market slow. And really we do feel like we're an economy and the data would show that we're an economy firing on all cylinders. Government, business bending, consumption the only keys that's not really adding to it as residential construction. I would say that we are the standalone leader on growth. And what's so important here, Lisa, A nominal GDP topline, that's real GDP posts inflation is there's an assumption here by the Bill Ackmans of the world economists and not that it's going to plunge down to what six percent, five percent? Even that's a boom economy. And when you say it, they're talking the inflation component. And Laura, that's what I want you to weigh in on. How much does it matter if we see a slow down do we need to slow down if we continue to see the pace of disinflation that we've seen so far this year. I think there's two pieces to that argument. To me, the real and one place from probably off consensus is I am really reticent to think that we are going to get this magical slow down in inflation back to that two percent lane that we have had. On the good side, we have a lot of indications that just from some slower demand and from some of these resolutions and inventory that we're going to see lower goods prices. But I think we are really ignoring the big elephant in the room, which is services. We still have a hot labor market by my measure, we still have wage pressure that is way higher than prior to the pandemic, and the resting heart rate of inflation is still well above two percent. And on the services side really is the problem here. So I think we need to be careful about being very complacent about inflation coming down, and that really feeds into this non recessionary rate decline Goldilocks complacency that has taken hold of equity markets at this moment. In some ways, the Fed's wall are really kind of fed into that yesterday, which is a reason why maybe he gave Steams some of these market movements. He said, there is just no reason to say you would keep rates really high and inflation is back at target, how high is the threshold then to cut rates. If we do see the disinflation in the pipeline significant, it might not be long lasting because of some of these other issues, but we do see year over year comps come in with autoprice disinflation or outright deflation with rents coming in, with the fact that goods, as Walmart said, just prices are actually going down outright. I think the FED is good at looking around the corner on especially this rent issue. There's no doubt that rent is a very lagging indicator, but it's sticky for a reason. And all of the short term indicators that you know, six months ago were really pointing to rents coming down fast have now reversed. And I think something that's very important to me is the fact that rents are far below the cost that it is to buy a home per square foot. You are costing you a lot less to rent, and landlords are rational. They're going to see this, and they are going to over the next several quarters, you know, push rents higher again. So it's something that you just can't ignore in the core, even if you get the headline hitting two percent. I get nervous when the FED tries to micro manage the inflation process, Laura, and this with your overarching philosophy of summing all this together, are we beyond the pandemic? It sure doesn't feel like it to me. It feels like the stimulus is still pop and popping, popping. But from where you sit, are we beyond COVID Not? In the data, Tom, I think we're seeing this trampoline effect and the Q three GDP numbers are great example of that, and we had a big inventory, you know, push higher. We could very well get that. Still detracting from the fourth quarter, you're still getting some of these big swings in factors that are disguising what's going on underneath with demand which is still really red hot. So this is a big to me, you know, piece that we're looking at. For twenty twenty four, we start to see some move away from reliance on savings towards income. I think the irony is it could be a period of lower growth next year, but actually better sentiment about household economics as you see income finally catch up to the prior year and a half of inflation. Okay, I'm gonna pinion down it. Give me some twenty twenty four lower outlook numbers, real GDP. What do you think? Real GDP one point four and I think the tenure stays pretty high. I'm putting it at four percent for twenty twenty four. I mean, these are Lisa, these are huge slow down numbers. And then the question comes over immediately, what does non farm payrolls do? David Kelly, a JP Morgan would say goes negative well and This is really the ultimate question, Laura, do we get that kind of slow growth but high yield along with a full, fully employed America, along with job creation that continue to chugle all. I think that we look at the recessions that we've had in the two thousands, twy tens, even the nineteen nineties, we saw very little. If you look at nineteen ninety two thousand recessions, we saw very little drop and output, but a massive decline in labor in this I think upcoming year we're going to see a slower economy, but I think that companies continue to view labor as a scarce resource. I think the true Goldilocks is not going to be defined by output. It's going to be defined by the labor market, and we are going to see the I think the unemployment rates stay quite low. Lar. Thank you. We FS investment slower rhyme this morning there were a one point four percent called slower economy year. Howard Marks, chairman of oak Tree Capital Management, and I must point out author of not one, two, but three important books on investing of What to Do and just as importantly Howard What Not to Do. Howard on Charlie Munger getting the odds on your side. How did Charlie Munger get the odds on his side? He started off with a brilliant mind and a brilliant partner. He intensively studied the financials, thinking about the long term. He never tried to guess what a company or a stock would do in the short term. And he held for many years. You know, he was a great practitioner. Sit on your hands, and he did it flawlessly in the modern day, in the modern media, I remember reading those annual reports. How are years ago there was no financial media, there was no blogging internet. The short termism we're living it now. What is the lesson of Charlie Munger's long termism? Well, if you want to hit the long ball, you have to be very patient, and you know, when the stock moves up the first twenty percent, you can't start taking profits. Charlie and Warren have held things for decades. And the other thing is they were and Charlie always talked about this, you have very few moonshots. Charlie said within the last year that most of his wealth came from four decisions. And so you know what would have happened if he would have started trimming those four decisions early he certainly would not have accomplished what he did, and I think Warren would the same thing. Maybe the number four would be a little different with Warren, but you know, you know, Warren's famous for having said, put all your eggs in one basket. And I watched the basket really closely, and I think that it wasn't one basket. But the idea of concentration and patience coupled with good decisions makes for a great success. You know, a concentration and patience don't accomplish anything if you can't make above average investment decisions. But putting it all together is the formula for success. Howard, you wrote in some of your thoughts about Charlie Mungerth that he had very definite opinions, in particular regarding the investment management industry. He viewed the industry with considerable skepticism, and while a member of it, I found myself in agreement with him more often than not. What exactly are you talking about in particular? You know, I think both Charlie and Warren felt that our industry, relatively few members of it made substantial contributions to their clients wealth. Many more members that were well paid. He was always one who questions incentives. He says, you give me incentive, an incentive, I'll tell you the behavior. And and I think that, you know, I think that Warren and Charlie, if you're their operation, they, in fact Warren's ed and quotes, not a partnership, not a corporation of partnership. And they considered there there the people they manage money for their shareholders to be their partners. And they considered themselves to be working for their partners and not themselves, and their own wealth and success was a byproduct of working of doing great work for the partners. So you know, I like to put my sameself in the same boat. Those sentiments appeal to me greatly, and I've tried to follow that. How difficult has it been to sort of to adapt the strategy to different eras When you had conversations with Charlie Munger, there are questions around tech and how that changed the investment thesis. How did they think about the changing concept of what a wonderful company looked like and what fair value was. You know, you, on the one hand, you have to evolve with the times. On the other hand, you know they never went a full bore into the tech sector. You know, their famous are having made a lot of money with Apple, but you know, most tech the way they said it, they put it on the too hard pile. And if you have if you understand that your success will come from a small number of holdings, that means you don't need twenty thirty thirtyfty sixty. You don't need to exploit all the sceptors. You just have to find a few great ones. Of course, on the other hand, you know Tom said that we're you know, we're in a new era with all the communications we have. Part of what that means is that the world is a more interconnected, intelligent place. You know, back fifty years ago we used to be able to exploit things nobody else knew. Today there's very little information that doesn't make its waste speedily around the world. Howard to help us with one final question here to the management the future management of Berkshire Hathaway. They have a from COVID buildup of cash a four hundred and twelve billion out to half a trillion dollars five hundred and twenty five trillion. You and everybody else out there is living with explosive money market fund growth. You know the story in that forward here for Berkshire, Hathaway, what's the best use of there in our mounds of cash? You know, the people who run Berkshire today and will run it tomorrow understand the limitations of size. All things being equal, size makes it harder to outperform. They have the best probability of outperforming of any company their size, but their size will matter. And you know one of my professors at University of Chicago. I asked him afterwards, how would you manage a big fund? He'd say, I would index the cord and manage the hell out of the periphery. And I would imagine that at their size, they'll have to move in the direction of something like that, although they will not give up on outperformance. Howard Marx, thank you with oak Tree Capital Management. In remembrance of Charlie. I'm so pleased that we get to speak with Tipenstein, co founder and co chair of Carlisle Group, host of Peer to Peer Conversations on Bloomberg Television, because David is somebody who talks with all the executives across Wall Street, Main Street and beyond to understand how they're dealing with some of these transformative technologies of the moment, and David, I want to start there kind of where the similarities are in how some of these executives are thinking about the developments and artificial intelligence in a generative AI. Well, everybody wants to be an expert on AI and figure out how it's going to affect their company positively or negatively, but honestly, nobody really knows for sure yet how it will work. We're really inning one of artificial intelligence in terms of how major companies are going to use it or have it used against them. So everybody's trying to hire artificial experts or get people into their firm who can help them assess whether artificial intelligence is going to be useful to them or helpful to them, And nobody really knows yet, So I can't say anybody is certain how it's going to impact their business yet. David, mister Zevino stealed Marsh mcclennan and others, and then Nannie goes to AIG where different than other executives, he has to deal with disaster. What did you learn about how he handles the unexpected? Well, insurance is about dealing with the unexpected, really, and so AIG became the largest insurance company in the world for many, many years, and as a result of that, it had enormous tentacles throughout the entire financial complex. It clearly extended itself too much, didn't anticipate problems that arose, particularly in the mortgage area, and as a result had to be bailed out by the US government to tune of about one hundred and eighty billion dollars. Now that money's been paid back with interest. But AIG is no longer the biggest insurance company in the world, and it doesn't have quite the tentacles around the world that it once did, but still a very profitable company. David and Newsmaker yesterday. This is what Rubinstein does. He's steering the thunder from journalist David Rubinstein with Bill Ackman yesterday and the track that this nation will take. What did you learn from mister Rackman, David Rwinstein. Well, Bill is a very impressive person who obviously is outspoken, has been outspoken on many issues over many years. Recently has become quite visible in what he's been saying about Harvard. But he said in the interview which will air not too long from now that he's made a new bet. He's made a number of macro bets that have turned out to be extremely positive. One of them, he made it over one hundred times his money on a bet that he made a number of years ago in the time of COVID. Now he's made a bet that interest rates will be cut sooner by the Fed than is otherwise expected. And if that bet is successful, I guess he'll make a fair amount of money. But that's the big issue that many people are grappling with. Will the Fed decide and it needs to lower interest rates before the political season starts, let's say, in the summer or the fall of next year. Dave, excuse me, go ahead, Lisa, please my fault. David, is it surprising to you that a big hedge fund is focused on making big bets on treasuries right now? Well, many hedge funds people are doing that. Honestly, he has not done the so called treasury trade that others have done, where he's buying treasuries and shorting treasury futures. He hasn't done that. This is basically a bet that the Fed will succumb to some pressure to lower interest rates before too long. Now, the conventional wisdom in Wall Street is that the Fed will lower interest rates at some point during their first or second quarter, more likely the second quarter. I think his bet is it'll probably do it sooner than the conventional wisdom. And I have said publicly before, and I still think it's the case that the Fed will get in trouble if it lowers interest rates around the political season, because the Republicans will say, well, you're helping Joe Biden by lowering interest rates if you do so over the summer or in the early fall. So the Fed is going to lower interest rates, probably to avoid political criticism. It don't have to do it sooner than later. David, you mentioned mister Ackman in Harvard in the Horror of the Eastern Mediterrane. I want to go to your Duke University where they have a bridge. Folks. There's an old bridge called the Free Expression Bridge. And to make a long story short, they had to paint over a pro Palestinian tone as well. David, I want you to talk to the great and good right now about how those of means and success should deal with their shock at our American universities. Well, the American university system is still the envy of the world, and our private universities are really the places that people from all over the world want to attend. There's been a shock that many people didn't realize how strong the anti Israel feeling has been in some campuses, and the result of that has been outraged by some alums. Some universities have handled this better than other universities. I am the chairman of the board of the University of Chicago, and we have a tradition of not issuing statements on political matters or outside matters, and we have an issue one in this case. But in many cases other universities have not had that policy, and they've got in trouble for issuing statements that don't please one side or the other. It's a difficult way to walk his fine line, and I don't know that anybody has figured it out properly or correctly. David All glorious day for Bloomberg Surveillance with Doug cass and Howard Marks with us and membrance of Charlie Munger. Give us your thoughts on the hugely successful experiment that was Berkshire Hathaway. For those who don't know. Charlie Munger was from Warren Buffett's hometown of Omaha. He moved to Los Angeles and later reconnected with Warren Buffett, who hadn't really known before, but he had worked for Warren Buffet's grandfather at one point in a store. Charlie Munger was had outspoken, very very smart, a lawyer who transitioned from being a lawyer to being an investor, and his track record early on was actually better than Warren Buffett's in some respects. They teamed up became an incredible team of people who were mostly known to the public through their annual meetings where Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger would answer questions for six hours on end. And Charlie Munger was quite well known for his I would say, dismissive ideas of some other people's thoughts about investing. He was a very fundamentalist kind of investor and he transformed Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett was taught to buy things very cheap, and buy things cheap you can always make money. It was Charlie Munger's view that you should buy good companies. Maybe you pay a reasonable price for it, but buying good companies is better than buying cheap companies which may not be that good. And Warren Buffett gives a lot of credit credit to Charlie Munger for having transformed his views on the investment world. David, thank you for joining us today with us remember, and so Charlie Munger and of course with your excellence. Look for a conversation with Peter Zefino. Peer to peer conversations hugely anticipated in the next ten days. A conversation with Bill Eckman that move I would suggest move Markets. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Easter. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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As we wind down this year, let us look back and contemplate the past year in terms of economic growth and discuss what's the outlook for the upcoming year. In September 2023, financial well being sentiment found much needed stability, although the Fed held rates and signaled elevated rates for longer, but there are some who predict the US. economic growth will buckle under mounting headwinds early next year with a shallow recession. That's what Nouriel Roubini and others have predicted. Real GDP will grow at about 2. 2 percent and then fall to about 0. 8%. The consumer spending actually held up despite the elevated inflation and high interest rates in the past , couple of months and the growth that seemed to be weakened in the first quarter also bounced back in Q2.  All those are the numbers, but to package all that I have with me on my pod today, Mr. Arvind Mallik. He's the managing partner of KMF Investments which is a pure pay for performance private investment partnership based out of Denton, Texas. KMF seeks a long term capital appreciation by investing in companies whose intrinsic value is significantly higher than the market price. And since its founding in 2008 KMF has found opportunities in the world dominating franchises, hard assets below replacement cost businesses at large, discounts to liquidation value, and firms with beneficial exposure to rising interest rates.The whole concept behind this is retaining value and increasing the value addition as we call it in finance terms. And Mr. Malik has education to back it up with a degree in chemical engineering  and bioengineering from  UC Berkeley, and also has a MS in chemical engineering from MIT.

Growth in global trade has helped reduce abject poverty around the world very significantly. Rising protectionism since 2008 has led to a drop in global trade as a percentage of global GDP and threatens efforts in poverty alleviation. Growing tensions in Europe and the Middle East are not helping. The potential for growth in trade in services is a silver lining. Despite 63% of global GDP comprising of services, only 21% of global trade is in services. Can services trade be the answer to economic growth and progress across the world and what specific lessons do this hold for India? Shrikrishna Upadhyaya deliberates all this with Sridhar Krishna. References: Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, WTO October 2023 Benefits of free trade, Visualcapitalist The world is in a grip of a manufacturing delusion, The Economist July 2023 World Trade Report 2019: The future of services trade Do check out Takshashila's public policy courses: https://school.takshashila.org.in/courses We are @‌IVMPodcasts on Facebook, Twitter, & Instagram. https://twitter.com/IVMPodcasts https://www.instagram.com/ivmpodcasts/?hl=en https://www.facebook.com/ivmpodcasts/ You can check out our website at https://shows.ivmpodcasts.com/featured Follow the show across platforms: Spotify, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, JioSaavn, Gaana, Amazon Music Do share the word with your folks  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Chirs Kuehl, the highly-respected economist from Armada Corporate Intelligence talks about economic issues in China, Russia, BRICs, and the U.S. GDP is defying a recession as the third quarter approaches 3% GDP growth with Real GDP above 5% for 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If you're even thinking about buying Trendspider - it's now on sale for $351 for the year. Remember the process. 1) sign up with my link - https://trendspider.com?_go=gary93 2) email me at dailystockpick3@gmail.com and let me know what email address you used 3) I'll send you the welcome letter once you're confirmed Last week was an inside week for $SPY - playing the levered ETF's and trading them this week should provide some solid returns. I think we're in a weekly bounce - so be careful if you hold these. I love Webull - ⁠⁠Sign up here and get FREE STOCKS⁠⁠ - https://a.webull.com/iHwte9iTQnfaDYFVxv Social Links and more - ⁠https://linktr.ee/dailystockpick ⁠ Follow along with all my trades and journal your own here -  https://savvytrader.com/Dailystockpick/2023-trading-portfolio FREE NEWSLETTER WITH CHARTS - subscribe at ⁠dailystockpick.substack.com ⁠ I love Webull - ⁠⁠Sign up here and get FREE STOCKS⁠⁠ SPONSORED BY VISIBLE - Check out this page: https://www.visible.com/get/?3MFGCRG  $20 off your first month - only $5 for the first month Use code DSP25 for 25% off Trendspider's platform - https://trendspider.com/?_go=gary93 Sign up for Webull and get free stocks like I did - https://a.webull.com/gGlte9iTQnfaDYFa4S NOTES Trendspider sale - crazy good - $351 for the Elite level for 1 year.  You can now scan for head and shoulders and inverse as well  ObGmPtYYiN - Import Inverse 6tgv7QFexy - Import Head and Shoulders August adp number came in line and July was revised higher - wage changes seems to be coming down as well - it all seems to be moderating saying maybe the fed won't raise  Real GDP at 2.1% vs. 2.4% set - so economy is slowing - again - bad news is good news - so we are still in that cycle  $SPXL $TQQQ $UDOW Apple (AAPL) announced its annual fall event titled ‘Wonderlust' on September 12th where it will launch its new slate of Iphones.  Alphabet (GOOGL) will announce more AI tools and offerings tied with its suite of products to customers at its annual cloud conference.  Remember bond rates - they fell and stocks went up  $VFS - crazy pullback on a big day $NVDA crazy good move - 4% - but $SMCI did not move as much -only 2%  $TQQQ above $40 again - so take profits - don't be greedy  $ELF announced a new acquisition - crazy pop - still has room to grow US Court of Appeals agreed with Greyscale that SEC can't allow a futures Bitcoin ETF and deny a spot bitcoin ETF. This opens the door and the SEC may have to approve one.  $MARA $RIOT $GBTC $COIN and others FLEW  https://share.trendspider.com/chart/MARA/18946wplwtm… $goog ai day - announced pricing but this is huge  Google's new flagship AI model, "Gemini," is set to be a direct competitor to GPT-4 and boasts computing power 5 times that of GPT-4.  Trained on Google's TPUv5 chips, it's capable of simultaneous operations with a massive 16,384 chips. The dataset used for training this model is around 65 trillion tokens, and it's multi-modal, accepting text, video, audio, and pictures. Moreover, it can produce both text and images. The training also included content from YouTube and used advanced training techniques similar to "AlphaGo-type" methods.  Google plans to release the Gemini model to the public in December 2023. Remember - $msft won't launch chatgpt co pilot until later next year they said. Google is first to market here.  Response about $tgt - read the newsletter https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1696264165524902396?s=20 This might not be good for $sofi come October $spy Massive breakout + 50 SMA reclaim with GoNoGo trend back in neutral territory!  Social request  Sam from fb  You mind taking a look at (GSAT) seen it was up. I went to check out the stock and saw that a former Qualcomm CEO was taking over as CEO. Noticed also that they provide emergency texting services for Apple. SCANS $UNH $AMD $TGT $XOM $AMZN $COST $BA $MRO $UCO $XOM $OIH $SLB $CVX $XLE $BTU $RIG $VNOM $ONON $WBA $HD $NKE $DXCM $CMCSA

Episode 2989: Real GDP Growth Down Since 1970

Episode 9 On today's show I speak with Aahan, founder of Prometheus Research, a research service with the goal of democratizing finance making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public. 1. Background of Macro research Understanding underlying mechanisms over analyzing data Monetary contracts and how we got here Money grows faster than underlying labor and capital Monetary policy - tighter is needed to tame inflation Interest rates need to be higher than CPI to lower future inflation 2. Monetary and cost push inflation Money infused into personal incomes and economy with production and labor Productivity down - less output/dollar Rise in costs of capital, production, labor Margins compressed with dilution of value 3. PMI, ISM and Manufacturing Reports Manufacturing forward indicator for earnings Real demand coming down Consumption declined  Excess production and inventory build 4. Tightening liquidity  Returns on assets relative to cash is negative Pressures on production and employment increasing Lower output and less need for employment Stagflationary Nominal Growth to Stagflation Real incomes and spending weaker so business sales also weaker 5. GDP Nowcast Weakening in real growth relative to previous year Real GDP could go negative near term 6. Returns not a feature of asset class but a feature of sample selection   ✨SUBSCRIBE to The RO Show Podcast!✨ https://youtube.com/@theroshowpodcast   ➡️CONNECT with ROSANNA PRESTIA & The RO Show⬅️ ✨ONE STOP FOR ALL: https://sociatap.com/RosannaPrestia ✨YOUTUBE: https://youtube.com/@TheROShowPodcast ✨TWITTER: https://www.twitter.com/@rosannainvests ✨TWITTER: https://www.twitter.com/@theroshowpod ✨WEBSITE: https://www.rosannaprestia.com THINK Different with Rosanna ©️ 2022-2023

Let's dive into the world of economics and real estate with Dr. Peter Linneman, an accomplished economist and advisor to leading corporations. He shares his insights on finding great mentors, learning as a skill, and navigating the current state of the US economy. With years of experience in providing M&A, analysis, market studies, and feasibility analyses to various companies, Dr. Linneman is highly regarded in the industry and has been serving as an adviser and board member of several public and private companies. Get ready to learn from his wealth of knowledge and expertise in this exciting episode.About Dr. Peter Linneman Dr. Peter Linneman holds both master's and doctorate degrees in economics from the University of Chicago. He is the principal of Linneman Associates. For nearly four decades, he has provided strategic and financial advice to leading corporations through Linneman Associates. He provides M&A, analysis, market studies, feasibility analysis to many leading US international companies. In addition, he serves as an advisor to and a board member of several public and private companies. Peter was a professor of real estate at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, from 1979 until his retirement in 2011. He's an accomplished author having written books, articles, and of course, The Linneman Letter, a quarterly letter for commercial real estate investors.Here are some power takeaways from today's conversation:[02:17] Introduction of Peter Linneman[04:07] Early beginnings from a blue-collar background to the real estate industry[05:31] Opportunities that arose from networking and doing good work[12:13] Importance of being a good student and knowing how to learn [16:58] The current state of the economy[21:44] The worst thing facing the economy[23:50] The Fed's crazy approach to the economyEpisode Highlights:[10:07] How to Find Great MentorsStart by identifying people who have skills and experience that you can learn from. Look for individuals who are willing to share their knowledge and expertise with you. Once you've identified potential mentors, show them that you are serious and committed to learning by demonstrating your work ethic and willingness to put in the effort. Don't be afraid to ask for their guidance and advice. Remember, learning is a skill that requires curiosity and a willingness to seek out new information. Build a relationship with your mentor by communicating regularly and showing appreciation for their time and expertise. [17:48] The Current State of the EconomyCurrently, the US economy is in a state of recovery from the pandemic. Real GDP is at about 2.5% of pre-pandemic levels, indicating that we have grown over the last three years, which is a positive sign. However, employment is still below pre-pandemic levels, and the Fed's attempt to get rid of employment is misguided. On the bright side, around two-thirds of homeowners have mortgages with an interest rate that is two to three percentage points lower than the historic norm, giving them more financial freedom. The travel and tourism industry is almost back to pre-pandemic levels, but there is still room for growth in areas such as automobile consumption. Despite concerns about the amount of debt rolling over, only 25% of corporate and real estate debt rolls over in the next three years, giving businesses some cushion and margin. Overall, there are good things happening in the economy, such as the normalization of supply chains. [21:44] The Worst Thing Facing the EconomyThe biggest challenge facing the economy is the Fed's belief that their job is to create a recession. This approach is dangerous, and they tend to overreact and be late in their responses. While we have weathered the shutdown of the economy for a year and a half, the current challenge posed by the Fed is something we can overcome.This show is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing said on the show should be considered financial advice. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by Passive Investing from Left Field and Left Field Investors. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.Resources Mentioned:Linneman Associates

Join us as we explore the strategies and insights that will empower you to thrive in the multifamily investment realm. And get ready to unlock the keys to success alongside Pancham Gupta, a renowned authority in the field.   Tune in now and elevate your multifamily investment game to new heights!  EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS:     Phases of the Multifamily Investment Cycle  Creating a Scalable Operating System for Your Business  Key Insights to Help Improve Business Efficiency  Pancham Gupta is a Real Asset Investor, Syndicator, and Engineer, holding a key role as Principal at Mesos Capital LLC. As a leading privately held multifamily investment firm, Mesos Capital manages an impressive asset portfolio of over $250,000,000. The firm's primary focus revolves around acquiring and managing multifamily properties that present opportunities for value enhancement. Targeting major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) characterized by consistent rent growth, low vacancy rates, and a thriving Real GDP, Mesos Capital leverages operational efficiencies, renovations, and strategic rebranding to optimize property performance.  In addition to his professional endeavors, Pancham Gupta is deeply passionate about empowering professionals and shares a strong belief in the potential for high-paid individuals to make their money work for them. He advocates investing in assets that generate positive cash flow and stresses diversifying beyond traditional Wall Street investments.  Connect with Pancham  LinkedIn  Website  Discover the significance of diversifying beyond Wall Street investments and unlocking your financial success. Grab your copy now!  www.TheGoldCollarInvestor.com/download  Did you enjoy today's episode?     Please click here to leave a review for The We Build Great Apartment Communities. Be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast app to get notified when a new episode comes out!     Do you know someone who might enjoy this episode? Share this episode to inspire and empower!     Connect with John Brackett and We Build Great Apartment Communities     Instagram @webuildgreatcommunities      Facebook @buildingreatcommunities      LinkedIn @brackettjohn      Website www.fidelitybps.com     Subscribe to The We Build Great Apartment Communities     Apple Podcasts      Spotify     Do you think you would be a great fit for the show? Apply to be a guest by clicking here.     Fidelity Business Partners, Inc.     6965 El Camino Real Suite 105-190     Carlsbad, CA 92009     D: 760-301-5311     F: 760-987-6065    

MSCI said it would not “implement any changes as part of upcoming index reviews for any securities classified in Egypt.” Inflation figures for April recorded 30.6% YoY from 32.7% YoY in March 2023.  Macro targets revealed by Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Planning for FY23/24:Real GDP growth will inch down to 4.1%Headline inflation will average 16.0% over the 12-month periodFiscal deficit to widen to 7.0% of GDP and primary surplus to increase to 2.5%Proceeds of EGP 70 bn (USD 2.26 bn) through the privatization programBrent crude prices averaging USD 80 per barrelWheat prices averaging USD 240 per tonDebt-to-GDP to fall to 91.3%Ration card holders will now face tighter limits on how much subsidized food they can buy per month under a Supply Ministry directive issued yesterday.Abu Dhabi wealth fund, ADQ, is close to acquiring a 20-25% stake in Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene (Elab). The transaction is expected to be completed before the end of this month.MOIL BoD approved yesterday the offer submitted from the Saudi company Al Gihaz Holding that allows the latter to buy the marine units owned by “Valentine Maritime” at a value of USD115.6 million (USD0.25 per share).EMFD plans to open two new hotels, the Address Marassi Beach Resort and the Vida Marina Resort & Yacht Club Marassi, on the North Coast in 2023, and the Vida Residences Cairo Gate in Cairo in 2024.The Universal Healthcare scheme is currently operational in Port Said and Luxor and is being trialed in South Sinai and Ismailia. The trial phase will also extend to Aswan and Suez within weeks.

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, provides an in-depth analysis of US GDP and the Real GDP, as he examines variables such as inventory, from durable goods and non-durables and services, and takes a closer look at the GDP deflator. His study provides direction on the course of inflation in the US economy as well as on Real GDP. As the Fed meets this week on interest rates, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, issues a stark warning on the cost of servicing the balooning US debt. "We're getting to the point of no return if [the Fed] keeps raising rates," says VAN ALSTYNE, referring to the astonishing $400 billion interest payments on the Federal debt. "Reality is going to hit us when the Fed is still printing money, or has to print money just to afford all the interest on the debt." Japan may also have its own rude awakening one day as its monetary math won't work for it in the long term, VAN ALSTYNE says. (On Wednesday, Feb 1, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point – to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% – at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.) Elsewhere, BOVE says customers of many US banks have "had it" and are transferring their deposits and funds from these banks to other institutions and rivals. Bove says billions of dollars have been withdrawn by customers for higher rates and superior yields elsewhere on their money. "Banks are too greedy and did not pass along rate increases," says BOVE. The CONVERSATION also looks at what it means for the top 100 US corporate pension funds which have seen the upside of higher interest rates. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@Odeoncap.com

ABOUT TRAVIS WATTSTravis Watts is an investor, passive income advocate, and public speaker. He dedicates his time to educating investors who are looking to be "hands-off" when it comes to real estate investing. He used to be an active investor who owned single-family homes (fix and flips, vacation rentals and buy and hold properties) until he burned out in 2015. His rental properties were taking up too much of his time; it felt more like a job rather than an investment. Today, Travis is a full-time PASSIVE multi-family apartment investor and the Director of Investor Education at Ashcroft Capital.     THIS TOPIC IN A NUTSHELL: Travis's background and how he started in real estateOwning and Managing Single-family homesIntroduction to Limited partnership His transition from Landlord to Passive InvestorInvolvement with Ashcroft capitalInvesting in the stock market, REITs, and private placementsLearning curve from owning SFH to Multifamily Underwriting a deal  Importance of mentorsDetails of the deal that he wants to sharePreferred monthly distributions for LP investmentsHow to fund LP investmentsHow to look at deals as an LP investor Trust but verify Tools/Software usedLooking at the Track record of operatorsReturns of InvestmentsLoans and RefinanceCapital improvements implementedConnect with Travis      KEY QUOTE:“I'm a cashflow-focused investor. I want to know if there will be cash flow on day 1, and how realistic it is that we can raise the yield over the next 3-5 years vs. you telling me that I'm gonna double my money in 5 years, because it may not happen. A lot of investors should keep in mind that these are just projected returns, there are no promises or guarantees.”  SUMMARY OF BUSINESS:Ashcroft Capital is a national multifamily investment firm with over 2 billion in assets under management. Ashcroft is focused on major metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) which demonstrate consistent rent growth, low vacancy, and a growing Real GDP. The firm repositions properties through operational efficiencies, moderate-to-extensive renovations, and complete rebranding.  ABOUT THE WESTSIDE INVESTORS NETWORK   The Westside Investors Network is your community for investing knowledge for growth. For real estate professionals by real estate professionals. This show is focused on the next step in your career... investing, for those starting with nothing to multifamily syndication.     The Westside Investors Network strives to bring knowledge and education to real estate professional that is seeking to gain more freedom in their life. The host AJ and Chris Shepard, are committed to sharing the wealth of knowledge that they have gained throughout the years to allow others the opportunity to learn and grow in their investing. They own Uptown Properties, a successful Property Management, and Brokerage Company. If you are interested in Property Management in the Portland Metro or Bend Metro Areas, please visit www.uptownpm.com. If you are interested in investing in multifamily syndication, please visit www.uptownsyndication.com.          #realestate #realestateinvesting #passiveincome #passiveinvesting #realestateinvestor #realestateinvestment #REinvesting #cashflow #LimitedPartner #GeneralPartner #PassiveInvestor #Syndication #Multifamily #BuyAndHold #SingleFamily #Dallas #Mentors #distributions #operators #stockmarket #TrustButVerify #InternalRateOfReturn #Transition #newepisode #podcasting #passivewealth #assetcreation #RoadToFinancialFreedom #WIN #JointheWINpod #WestsideInvestorsNetwork    CONNECT WITH TRAVIS WATTS: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/traviswatts1234/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/passiveinvestortipsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/passiveinvestortips/BiggerPockets Blog: https://www.biggerpockets.com/member-blogs/12418-the-syndication-investor-blog/blog_posts YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCYnr_mB0XK1JDQNEQpuAK70LcoT4DzZQ       CONNECT WITH US   For more information about investing with AJ and Chris:  ·    Uptown Syndication | https://www.uptownsyndication.com/  ·    LinkedIn | https://www.linkedin.com/company/71673294/admin/         For information on Portland Property Management:  ·    Uptown Properties | http://www.uptownpm.com  ·    Youtube | @UptownProperties      Westside Investors Network  ·    Website | https://www.westsideinvestorsnetwork.com/  ·    Twitter | https://twitter.com/WIN_pdx  ·    Instagram | @westsideinvestorsnetwork  ·    LinkedIn | https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13949165/  ·    Facebook | @WestsideInvestorsNetwork  ·    Youtube | @WestsideInvestorsNetwork  

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Visualizing the development gap, published by Stephen Clare on December 7, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Lazarus Chakwera won Malawi's 2020 Presidential election on an anti-corruption, pro-growth platform. It's no surprise that Malawians voted for growth, as Malawi has been called the world's “poorest peaceful country”. According to Our World in Data, the median income per day is $1.53, or about $560 per year. Real GDP per capita has grown at an average rate of just 1.4% per year since 1961 and stands today at $1650 per person (PPP, current international $). Furthermore, the country has yet to recover from an economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, leaving GDP per capita only slightly higher than it was in 2014. Life on $560 a year is possible, but not very comfortable. A sudden illness, accident, or natural disaster can be devastating. Even after spending almost all one's income, many of one's basic needs remain unmet. Investments for one's future, including education and durable goods, are mostly out of reach. Life satisfaction in countries where incomes are so low is poor. We know that it's not fair some people have to make do with so little. In the U.S., the poverty threshold, below which one qualifies for various government benefits to help meet basic needs, is $26,200 for a family of four, or $6625 per person. That makes it almost 12 times higher than the median Malawian income. (All of these international comparisons are adjusted for purchasing power.) Let that sink in. The majority of Malawians don't earn one-tenth of the amount of money below which we, in a high-income country, think one should get help from the government. And of course, the same is true in most countries. If we applied the U.S. poverty line around the world, we would see that most people just don't have enough money to meet all their basic needs. That's why finding ways to speed up development in low-income countries would be a huge win for philanthropists, policymakers, and citizens alike. Unfortunately, we haven't made much progress towards this goal. In this post, I give a sense of why it's important for EAs to think about broad economic growth in lower income countries. I do this by showing how long it will take Malawi to catch up to where a high-income country like the United States is at today. In short, at typical growth rates, it will take a depressingly long time: almost two centuries. Sparking a growth acceleration, like what India has experienced in recent decades, would help a bit, but it would still take many decades for Malawi's economy to grow to the point that most Malawians can afford a reasonable standard of living. These calculations should help deepen one's understanding of the development gap: the difference in living standards between high- and low-income countries. The implications for global development advocates are obvious. But I also think longtermists should pay attention. First, the wellbeing of billions is not unimportant from a longterm perspective – it's just that future wellbeing matters as well. Second, I think speeding up development would help more people from lower-income countries access the educational and professional opportunities they need to participate in what could be humanity's most important century. Growth trajectories for Malawi One way to visualize the development gap is to think about how long it will take a country like Malawi to reach various benchmarks. To that end, let's consider a few different growth trajectories. I'm going to continue to refer to Malawi specifically, but one could similarly visualize any country. What matters is just the starting income and the growth rate. First, what if Malawi continued to grow at 2% per year, roughly as it has in recent decades? At this rate, it would take a shocking 105 years ...

As markets continue to mull the Fed's interest rate hikes, we want to switch gears to take a look at growth forecasts for the following year.  Well, according to an Economist Intelligence Unit or EIU report, global real GDP growth is expected to come in at just 1.7% in 2023, as the war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China and supply chain disruptions continue to hurt growth. But why is this the case, and which are the outperforming sectors?  On Market View, Prime Time's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian spoke with Ana Nicholls, Director of Industry Analysis at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) for more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join CFC economic experts for their unique and easily digestible perspective on what you need to know.

South Africa's economy shrank by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2022, Statistics SA said on Tuesday. This is slightly better than expected. The median expectation among economists polled by a Bloomberg survey was for a contraction of 0.8% in the second quarter. Economic activity in the manufacturing industry shrank by 5.9%, in part due to the impact of flooding in KwaZulu-Natal, which killed more than 400 people and wrecked infrastructure in April. Manufacturing is the largest industry in KwaZulu-Natal, accounting for a fifth of national manufacturing production, Statistics SA reported. The agriculture industry decreased by 7.7% in the second quarter, while the mining and quarrying industry shrank by 3.5%. load-shedding took a heavy toll on industries. South Africa was hit by power outages on more than half of the days in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg calculations. Higher interest rates also weigh on growth. So far this year, the Reserve Bank has hiked the repo rate four times - from 3.75% to 5.50%. More increases are expected in September and November. Added to that were the knock-on effects of the Ukraine invasion, particularly higher food and fuel prices. But the finance, real estate and business services industry continued to grow, rising by 2.4% in the second quarter. Real GDP for the first half of 2022 was 1.4% larger than in the same period in 2021. Last year, the South African economy grew by 4.9% as it started to recover from a 6.4% slump in 2020 due to pandemic-related lockdowns. The economy reaches its pre-pandemic size in the first quarter of 2022 – a year earlier than most expectations. But this recovery was short-lived. The 0.7% decline in the second quarter dragged GDP back below pre-pandemic levels. Six industries are not yet bigger than they were before the pandemic, with construction currently in the worst shape, says Statistics SA. The construction industry is 24% smaller than it was before the pandemic.

Is this a recession? Real gross domestic product has dropped for two straight quarters. Real GDP is our measure of goods and services produced, adjusted for inflation, and the United States is producing less now than it was at the end of 2021. Usually that's exactly what we mean by a recession.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/si… Bill Wolf, Chief Investment Officer at TrustToken/TrustLabs joins Jack Farley to talk about all things blockchain: his journey into this new form of currency, real GDP loans, and stablecoins. Bill and Jack talk about TrustToken and the services its business offers in the trading and lending space. What red flags does TrustToken find to help other firms who are looking to invest or take out loans? While struggling lenders in the CeFi space had no choice but to declare bankruptcy, Bill tells Jack that his company TrustToken has never had a single default on its platform. Watch to find out how his company avoided risks that have taken many other companies out. Filmed the afternoon of August 2, 2022. Be on the lookout for The Investors Guide to TrueFi Capital Markets, coming out soon on Blockworks.co. -- Follow TrustToken on Twitter https://twitter.com/TrustToken Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Bill's Journey into Blockchain (07:58) Real GDP Loans on Blockchain (17:05) Stablecoins (23:26) Tether (26:08) TrustToken's Structure (38:05) Lending Terms (47:34) Interest Rate Risks (49:13) Fee Structure (53:15) Definition Of A Credit Loss (57:25) Lender Protections (59:45) Correlation Risk (1:08:47) "We're All Going To Pay For The Sins of Others" (1:10:24) The Future Of Blockchain Lending (1:13:57) The Fed -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Tom Graff is the head of investments for Facet Wealth and has several decades leading fixed income departments. Tom joins David on Macro Musings to provide his thoughts on the recent FOMC meeting, the Q2 2022 GDP numbers and their implications for the economy, and the future path of Fed policy. Specifically, David and Tom discuss the recent GDP numbers from Q2 2022, the merits of public concerns over a recession, takeaways from the July FOMC meeting, interest rate theory and implicit forecasts of inflation, the fiscal theory of the price level, the continued importance of the Fed's framework, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Tom's Twitter: @tdgraff Tom's Facet Wealth profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   Real GDP Numbers updated for Q2 2022   Federal Open Market Committee: July 26-27, 2022 FOMC Meeting

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/07/16/soothe-me-us-q2-real-gdp-sinks-to-1-5-as-fed-tightens-the-monetary-noose/

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/07/07/us-mortgage-rates-fall-to-5-30-as-q2-real-gdp-falls-to-1-9-the-economy-is-falling-to-pieces/

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/07/01/slip-slidin-away-us-q2-real-gdp-descends-to-2-1-late-in-the-evening-for-the-midterm-elections/

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/06/25/alarm-feds-bullard-says-us-recession-fears-overblown-with-consumers-healthy-my-response-in-one-chart-real-average-wage-growth-at-3-34-yoy-real-gdp-growth-at-0/

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/06/20/cleveland-ohio-5-of-the-top-10-foreclosure-zip-codes-as-home-prices-rise-31-5-since-covid-stimulypto-q2-real-gdp-falls-to-0-growth/

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/06/15/us-real-gdp-sinks-to-0-002-as-fed-meets-to-discuss-monetary-tightening-declining-purchasing-power-of-us-dollar/

Derek Moore gives an in-depth explanation of each of the components that make up GDP. No, 2 consecutive negative quarters of GDP do not mean a recession! How to use GDP nowcasts to spot trends in GDP and spot recession risks. How the NBER declares recessions and what they look at.   How is GDP calculated? What are components of GDP? What are the most important components driving GDP? Business investment vs consumer spending Government spending is not the most important aspect Explaining Change in Private Payrolls Consumer Spending PCE Residential Investment Non-Residential Fixed Investment Change in Private Inventories Government spending What is the NBER National Bureau of Economic Research How NBER declares recessions Why NBER declares recessions and recoveries after the fact Historical list of recessions   Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   ZEGA Financial www.zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore's Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=3   BEA contributions to percent change in real gross domestic product https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey   Podcast most telegraphed recession ever? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/most-telegraphed-recession-ever-the-4-rs-recession/id1432836154?i=1000563145394   Real GDP precent change historical https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA   NBER historical recessions https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions   How NBER declares a recession based on 4 or 2 categories https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

Real GDP growth rate recorded in 9M FY21/22 was 7.8%, recording 5.4% in 3QFY2021/22, with expectations to reach 6.2% in FY21/22.Prime Minister pledged fresh incentives to draw foreign investors into the country for projects including data centers, LNG terminals, telecom towers, oil and gas pipelines, and wind plants.CBE data showed that external debt amounted to USD145.5 billion at the end of December, of which 91.2% are long-term debt.The government will hold public consultations on its privatization plans over three months.The Public-Private Partnership Unit at the Ministry of Finance has launched a project to establish 8 advanced waste recycling plants, with an expected investment of USD700 million. It extended the deadline for receiving bids from private sector companies to build and operate schools to 26 June, instead of 25 May.HRHO 1Q22 group attributable net profit recorded a healthy EGP345 million (-14% q/q, +18% y/y). aiBank represented 21% (c.EGP72 million). The company is currently trading at P/E22 9.1x and P/B22 0.9x.HDBK 1Q22 standalone bottom line recorded EGP640 million (+62% q/q, +3% y/y). HDBK is currently trading at 2022 P/E of 3.1x, and P/B of 0.5x.CNFN 1Q22 consolidated net attributable income expanded by 40% y/y recording EGP154 million. CNFN is currently trading at P/E22 of 6.3x, and P/B22 of 1.5x.PHAR 1Q22 net profit came in at EGP174 million in 1Q22, +21.3% YoY and +5.8% QoQ. PHAR's BoD preliminary approved acquiring ACDIMA's 99.9% stake in UPE Pharma. PHAR is currently trading at 2022f P/E of f4.90x and EV/EBITDA of 4.0x. MICH 9MFY21/22 net profit amounted to EGP148 million (+37% YoY). MICH is trading at 4.3x P/E forFY21/22.A consortium of Egypt's Octa International and Saudi Olayan Group's Aluminum Products Company (ALUPCO) signed an MoU with the National Organization for Military Production to build an EGP 500 mn aluminum factory. Lafarge Egypt is preparing a file to be submitted to the Competition Protection Authority, demanding an extension of the decision to reduce production and allocate cement quotas for an additional year.Qatari Baladna increased their share in JUFO from a previous 9.990% to a current 10.138% with an average share price of EGP8.85/share. German snack food maker Lorenz Snack-World plans to invest EGP 200 mn in Egypt between 2023 and 2026. Dairy producer Milkys will spend EGP 400 mn on a new factory, on two stages.Passenger Car Importers and Distributors are now limiting sales to their branches and showrooms, in light of declining inventory as a result of the slowdown in importation.     

Photo:   W-Shape: US 1980–82 recession.   Percent Change in Real GDP (annualized; seasonally adjusted);   Average GDP growth 1947–2009.   Source: BEA #Inflation: What is stagflation; & What is to be done?  Veronique de Rugy, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center, George Mason University & NRO Online. https://www.investmentnews.com/el-erian-says-us-cant-avoid-stagflation-even-as-fed-tightens-221716 In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment.  In the version of Keynesian macroeconomic theory that was dominant between the end of World War II and the late 1970s, inflation and recession were regarded as mutually exclusive, the relationship between the two being described by the [now-discredited]  Phillips curve. Stagflation is very costly and difficult to eradicate once it starts, both in social terms and in budget deficits.

Greetings from Dallas, Texas! Jason is speaking at the Investor Fuel Mastermind event but before he does that, listen to him rant about a Youtuber who uses CLICKBAIT to spread false narratives about the housing shortage and the foreclosure moratorium!   Then Jason and Eric finish their discussion about real GDP per capita, secular economic trend predictions for the next 3-5+ years, transfer of wealth from baby boomers to millennials and much more. Eric Basmajian is an economic analyst providing research on the most critical secular and cyclical economic trends impacting interest rates and asset prices. Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/ Watch the video HERE. Key Takeaways: Jason's Editorial 1:03 Shout out from Dallas, Texas 1:37 A RANT about the housing shortage situation and the foreclosure moratorium 6:24 Join us in Jacksonville Florida for the Wholesaling Mentoring event. Go to JasonHartman.com/Wholesale Eric Basmajian Interview Part 2 8:35 Real GDP per capita 11:56 Secular economic trend predictions for the next 3-5+ years 12:53 Transfer of wealth from baby boomers to millennials 15:45 The single most important variable to understand where the next 10 years of the real estate market are going 19:28 The demand curve is set by those demographics 21:39 Immigration can help the demographic curve 23:16 Four corners of the economy: income, consumption, employment and production 24:56 Increasing talk of recession 27:51 We live in a centrally planned economy 30:29 Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/ GIVEAWAY ANNOUNCEMENT! Weekly Amazon gift card giveaway raffle! Comment on one of Jason's YouTube videos and/or leave a review for his Creating Wealth Show Podcast to be entered into a random drawing. Two winners weekly! Comment on this video and leave a review here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...   Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else http://JasonHartman.com/Fund Free Report on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips: https://vimeo.com/549444172 Free Class: CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:  https://JasonHartman.com/Ron What do Jason's clients say?  http://JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Contact our Investment Counselors at: www.JasonHartman.com Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Free white paper on the Hartman Comparison Index™ Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee    

It's the mistakes that create the real value.   People have either achieved success or failure, but both parties have always made mistakes, which is the value of the experience. We use mistakes to pave the path and educate ourselves and others. It is what we do after those mistakes that determines our future.    Our latest guest in Cash Flow Pro, Dave Seymour, understands what it means to make mistakes and learn from them- to find the light at the end of the tunnel. Dave moved to the U.S. in 1986 and started a career as a firefighter and paramedic. Fast forward 16 years, and he did not have more time to give to his job, his family, or himself, work had taken control, and he could not find a way out. Eventually, after asking for a sign, he decided to go to a free real estate seminar near him.    After seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, Dave has acquired credibility as one of the top distressed asset investors in Massachusetts and even has a TV show "Flipping Boston" under his belt. Today he is the CEO and fund manager at Freedom Venture Investments.      Freedom Venture Investments is a real estate firm that focuses on finding value in overlooked markets. The firm's goal is to work within markets that demonstrate consistent rent growth, low vacancy, and a growing Real GDP.    In this episode, we discuss:   The importance of asking for help, reading the signs in front of you, and taking action Flipping Boston, the Reality TV Show and the importance of credibility  Understanding the difference between trading time for money and money making money  Freedom Venture Investments – the investing process and future goals      Allowing yourself to ask for help can change your life. Dave's story is one in millions, so make sure you are next - keep an eye out for life's hand-ups!    Find your flow,  Casey Brown   Resources mentioned in this podcast: https://www.freedomventure.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/daveseymour343/    

  Landaas & Company newsletter  May edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 25-29) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major releases Tuesday Manufacturing resumed its expansion in March, with durable goods orders rising 0.8% from February, according to the Commerce Department. Orders grew for the fifth time in six months following a 1.7% setback in February. Gains were led by a 5% rise in automotive orders and a 2.6% gain for computers and electronics. Aircraft orders declined. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, orders were up 1.1%. Since March 2021, all orders rose 12.6%, including 10.3% without transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, rose 1% from February and were up 10.4% from March 2021. An imbalance between weak supply and strong demand continued to drive the year-to-year increase in residential prices in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The national index rose by 19.8%, behind only August and July last year as the highest in 35 years of data. All 20 cities in the composite index increased year-to-year gains from January. An analyst from S&P said he expects rising mortgage rates eventually to slow home price increases, which have been far outpacing overall inflation. The Commerce Department said the annual rate of new home sales declined 8.6% in March, the third dip in a row, falling to the slowest pace since November. As a result, the supply of houses for sale rose to the highest level since October. Cost of ownership continued to rise. The median sales price rose 21% from March 2021 to $436,700. New houses of $500,000 and higher accounted for 38% of all sales, vs. 22% the year before. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined slightly in April with relatively high opinions on current conditions suggesting continued economic growth. The business research group said gas prices and the war in Ukraine did not appear to dampen expectations, which rose slightly but remained relatively low. Fears of inflation receded from a record high in March, and more consumers reported plans to buy big-ticket items like cars and appliances. Wednesday The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales fell 1.2% in March, the fifth decline in a row. The trade group's index was down 8.2% from the year before, the 10th consecutive year-to-year decline. An economist for the association said higher mortgage rates were narrowing the pool of home buyers. He forecast a 9% drop in houses sold this year and projected annual price increases to decelerate to 8%. Thursday The U.S. economy sank at an annual pace of 1.4% in the first quarter, though on a full-year basis, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product was up 3.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP was 2.8% above its pre-COVID peak at the end of 2019. Global supply issues slowed economic pace with declines in inventories and a record trade deficit. Consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity, advanced at a 2.7% annual pace, led by spending on services. Year-to-year, adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 4.7%, down from 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve Board's preferred measure of inflation rose 6.3% from the first quarter of 2021, more than triple the Fed's target pace. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row after reaching an all-time low. New claims were 51% lower than the 55-year average, according to Labor Department data. In the latest week, 1.5 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 6.3% from the week before and down from 16.5 million the year before. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 1.1% in March, exceeding a 0.

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/04/28/bidenflation-roars-to-25-yoy-in-march-as-real-gdp-growth-goes-negative-clueless-joe/

From an economic standpoint we still think the combination of consumption growth and fixed business investment should drive us forward, Troy Gayeski. He discusses what the Fed decisions will mean for the markets and the economy. He also talks about how nominal GDP was phenomenal, but real GDP was negative because of inflation. He then goes over reasons investors should want to invest in multi-stratgey approaches. Tune in to find out more.

Our guest, Whitney Elkins-Hutten, is the Director of Investor Education in passiveinvesting.com. She is passionate about helping busy professionals transform their lives with passive real estate investing. In this episode, Whitney will talk about the freedom she gained after discovering the power of passive income. If your goal is to have a flexible lifestyle and the freedom to spend time with people and activities that matter most to you, then this episode is for you! Listen now!Key Points from This Episode:Whitney started in real estate accidentally in 2002 when she purchased a house and became a landlord.She discovered how to build passive income and started transitioning the equity into long-term buy-and-hold rentals.Being an active or passive investor depends on your goals in life.Whitney is the Director of Investor Education in passiveinvesting.com.She educates investors on the power of passive real estate so they can build their portfolios.How does Whitney find the good operators to work with as a passive investor?There are pros and cons in investing in one apartment building or a fund that purchased many apartment buildings. If an operator has been in the business for five years and has never had a roadblock, that's a red flag. Tweetables: “It all depends on like, what your goals are in life. And like, what do you want? And like, why do you believe that real estate is a good investment vehicle? You and I both believe that right? You can pay five different ways in real estate, you don't do that in the stock market.” [00:05:00] “What better way for me to learn the business by being a passive investor because I get to be in the deal, see the whole operations.” [00:11:33] “So you know, once we check the box that you want to be passive, then you have to understand what are you in it for? Are you in it for cash flow or appreciation? Or some balance of both? Right? Because that determines what type of investment strategy are you going to go into and what kind of risk you're taking in the investment.” [00:11:55] Links Mentioned in Today's Episode:Whitney Hutten in LinkedInPassive Investing website About Whitney HuttenPassiveInvesting.com is a national multifamily investment firm with over $663,000,000 of assets under management. We build passive income and equity for our investors through low-risk real estate investments in the hottest real estate markets in the United States. PassiveInvesting.com acquires property in major metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) which demonstrate consistent rent growth, low vacancy, and a growing Real GDP. We then re

The Economic Survey 2021-22 projected the real GDP growth rate at 8-8.5% for FY23. However, both the government and the RBI have moderated growth expectations for FY23 in the short time period since then. Last week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the Centre's GDP deflator projection for FY23 is 3 to 3.5%. What this means is that the central government's real GDP growth projection for FY23 is in the range of 7.6 to 8.1%. This is based on the fact that the Union Budget has assumed a nominal GDP growth rate of 11.1% for FY23. GDP deflator, which is a measure of inflation, is also the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP. Also last week, the RBI projected GDP growth for the next fiscal year at 7.8% – again, lower than what the Economic Survey had projected. The Survey's growth projection for 2022-23 is based on the assumption that there will be no further pandemic-related economic disruption, withdrawal of global liquidity by major central banks will be mostly orderly, the monsoon will be normal, global supply chain disruptions will ease as the year progresses, and oil prices will be in the range of $70 to $75 per barrel. The government and the RBI are also aware of the fact that lagging private consumption could prove to be a sore point.   There might also be a chance that the government has been conservative when it comes to its GDP deflator projection.   Keeping the differences in the various projections aside, India will hopefully see a durable and broad-based economic recovery in FY23. However, as things stand at present, energy prices and geopolitical tensions could prove to be spoilers. Watch video

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More than five and a half million Americans out of work in January found jobs by November. In the same period, the jobless rate fell from 6.3 to 4.2 percent, a drop of one-third. Jobless claims in November hit a 52-year low. Real GDP growth for 2021 is expected to be 5.9 percent. (Between 2000 and 2019, real GDP growth stayed lower than 3 percent.) President Biden's temporary child tax credit, which provides direct cash payments to poor families, cut child hunger rates from 30 percent to 21 percent. That's 2 million fewer kids who went hungry. Yet Biden's popularity, as measured by poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, remains in the doldrums. At 43 percent approval, his numbers are worse than any postwar president at this point in his term except for his predecessor, Donald Trump. Author Noah Berlatsky has written an analysis for The Editorial Board in which he says that all this kind of...makes sense. In fact, it may be a sign of democracy working. On the show, Matt and Noah run through his argument, and talk about whether democracy truly can work in the process of so much media propaganda, misinformation, and voter confusion.

Objectives: -To differentiate between the two concepts (Nominal vs Real)-To know when to use each concept

It feels like so long ago, but back in 2019, the economic and financial environment was remarkably placid. Real GDP growth was plodding along at 2.3% pace, unemployment drifted down to end the year at 3.6% and corporate profits were growing slowly from very high levels. Consumption deflator inflation was still running below the Fed's 2% target and, in recognition of this fact, as well as market volatility at the end of 2018 and a sluggish global economy, the Fed cut the federal funds rate three times to end the year in a range of 1.50%-1.75%. While the political weather in America was stormy, the investment environment was remarkably calm.

Objectives: -Introduce the way we measure output-How do we calculate GDP-Nominal versus Real GDP

Elevated prices of goods and services are largely here to stay as a result of the Federal Reserve having dramatically inflated the money supply beginning in Q2 of 2020. These persistent price increases combined with stalling real GDP growth translate to stagflation. In April we wrote in our Amazon Kindle book that Stagflation Is Imminent. Stagflation is now here. Purchase a copy of our book “Stagflation Is Imminent”, here for only $9.99: https://www.amazon.com/Stagflation-Imminent-Jonathan-Maietta-ebook/dp/B091NB9V7M Read about the origin and evolution of the word “inflation” here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aUAXj0ooKmbIONVZXMu9vbKUCkmsEqS1/view?usp=sharing Read about the Atlanta Federal Reserve's Real GDP measure here: https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf For more TEK2day content visit TEK2day.com The TEK2day Podcast is available across all popular podcast playing platforms including Apple and Spotify: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tek2day-podcast/id1270002408 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3IybCrJs9ZPZTFPYlDg78b Check out our parent company – CEORater – where you may anonymously rate your company and CEO at CEORater.com Visit CEORater on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/ceorater

How to track global macroeconomic trends? What are important indicators to understand the economy? In which cycle are we?In this episode Eric Basmajian, founder & director of EPB Macro Research, discusses with Alexej & Bart importnat global macroeconomic trends, cycles and indicators with a few charts.⏰ Topics ⏰00:00 Intro01:22 Eric's background04:51 Creating / iterating on macro models07:50 How to track the most relevant macroeconomic indicators09:24 Most relevant macro indicators today13:34 Secular trends VS cyclical trends18:17 Relationship between demographics & debt23:41 Real GDP / capita 25:43 Impact of excessive government expenditure29:22 Influence of demographics on government bond yields 30:15 Misconceptions of MMT33:03 Why the FED's policies are always late35:35 Coincident economic data37:41 Why is the FED missing its opportunities39:50 Impact of government size on economic growth45:54 Outro

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2021/07/25/us-gdp-and-bank-lending-prior-to-next-economic-lockdown-real-gdp-per-capita-fell-0-05-yoy-as-m2-money-velocity-tanked-18-64-yoy/

Real GDP, Real GDP per capita, Human Development Index - HDI ဆိုတာတွေကို ဆွေးနွေးထားပါတယ်။

  Landaas & Company newsletter  May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 26-30) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday Manufacturing resumed its expansion in March, with durable goods orders rising 0.5% from February, according to the Commerce Department. Orders grew for the 10th time in 11 months following a 0.9% setback in February. Gains were widespread among manufacturers except for makers of aircraft and computer parts. March marked the fifth month in a row that orders exceeded the pre-pandemic level. They were up 10.9% from March 2020. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, rose 0.9% from February and were up 10.4% from March 2020. Tuesday An imbalance between limited supply and rising demand continued to drive the year-to-year increase in residential prices in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The 20-city composite index rose by 11.9%, the most in seven years. Gains were broadly based but rose most in the West and Southwest. Housing prices are far outpacing overall inflation, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditure index up 1.4% from February 2020. Home price acceleration began in August 2019 and slowed only in April, May and June of last year for the pandemic-induced recession. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in April to its highest level since before the pandemic. Assessments of current conditions “soared” according to the business research group, which should further strengthen the economic recovery in the second quarter. Consumers were upbeat about income prospects because of an improving labor market and the latest round of stimulus checks. Inflation expectations remained elevated, and more consumers expressed intentions to take vacations. Wednesday No major releases Thursday The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 6.4% in the first quarter, though on a full-year basis, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product was up 0.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP remained 0.9% below its previous peak at the end of 2019. Consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity, advanced at a 10.7% annual pace, fueled by government subsidies and the reopening of many businesses amid some lifting of pandemic precautions. The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation remained weak, rising 1.5% from the first quarter of 2020. At an annual pace, inflation was up 2.3%. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims sank for the 11th time in 12 weeks, declining to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began. New claims were still 65% higher than the 54-year average, according to Labor Department data. In the latest week, 16.5 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down from 17.4 million the week before. The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 1.9% in March, the first increase in three months. The trade group’s index was up 23.3% from the year before, when COVID closings suppressed sales. With historically low mortgage rates and a recovering job market, demand for houses stayed robust amid diminished supply. The Realtors project sales of 6.2 million houses in 2021, which would be a 10% increase from 2020. The group expects the median sales price to rise 9% this year to $323,900. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 4.2% in March, fueled by a record 21.1% jump in personal income, led by federal stimulus payments. Increased consumer spending resulted in an 8% rise in expenditures on goods like automobiles and a 2.2% increase in spending on services, including at restaurants and bars. The personal saving rate rose to 27.6% of disposable income from 13.9% in February.

Recently I looked up Google Trends to see how terms like inflation and stock market bubble were doing? They have been popular which means people are searching for them. Is this contrarian? How to play armchair stock market valuation game by looking at expected earnings. US Treasuries had the worst quarter performance since 1980 and third worst since 1830. GDP growth according to Goldman Sachs will be 8%. Is that inflationary?     Goldman Sachs says 2021 GDP growth will be 8% Does this point to higher inflation or just a regaining of the previous trend? US Treasuries issued in 1812 to fund the War of 1812. US Treasuries performance worst since 1980 and third worst going back to 1830. Share buybacks plus Dividends equal total return of capital to shareholders. Estimating the intrinsic value of the stock market using earnings expectations Google Trends highlight popularity of investment search terms like inflation and market bubble. Real GDP accounts for inflation   Mentioned in this Episode:   Hussman article on the option value of cash due to market expectations https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201201/   Professor Aswath Damodaran S&P 500 valuation model using earnings estimates https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaran/status/1345461746622898176   Podcast episode where we talk about hedged equity and valuation timing https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/18495611   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek www.razorwealth.com

Jason Ware, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Economist at Albion Financial, joins to discuss the recent shift in investor appetite from tech growth to non-tech growth, outlook for the strongest real GDP growth in decades, and expectations for 10-year treasury yields. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/market-banter/message

Statistician General, Risenga Maluleke speaks to Tumisang Ndlovu on GDP data released today. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Low labor participation, higher taxes and a large debt load translate to anemic long-term Real GDP growth.

Welcome to Finance and Fury Budget came out last week – this episode – go through the fiscal overview and the policy measures in it   Fiscal overview – provided updates on the government budget position and economic updates Government – added $289 billion in fiscal spending and balance sheet measures - equivalent to around 14.6 per cent of 2019‑20 GDP At the same time - estimated large declines in taxation receipts has seen a major deterioration in the budget position, with estimated deficits of $85.8 billion in 2019‑20 and $184.5 billion in 2020‑21 – so the annual position is a loss Gross debt was $684.3 billion (34.4 per cent of GDP) at 30 June 2020 and is expected to be $851.9 billion (45.0 per cent of GDP) at 30 June 2021. Net debt is expected to be $488.2 billion (24.6 per cent of GDP) at 30 June 2020 and increase to $677.1 billion (35.7 per cent of GDP) at 30 June 2021 – gross going up by 24% and net debt going up by 39% Real GDP is forecast to have experienced its sharpest fall on record in the June quarter - expected to pick up in the September quarter and beyond, with the easing of restrictions in most parts of the country. Real GDP is forecast to fall by 0.25% in 2019‑20 and by 2.5% in 2020-21. In calendar-year terms, real GDP is forecast to fall by 3.75% in 2020, before increasing by 2½ per cent in 2021. The economy is forecast to recover faster than in past recessions due to the unwinding of restrictions, but it will be a long road back. The unemployment rate will remain elevated for some time. The economic and fiscal outlook remains highly uncertain. The Government will provide forecasts and projections over the forward estimates period and medium term in the 2020‑21 Budget, to be delivered on 6 October 2020. Table 1.2: Major economic parameters(a)           Outcome Forecasts   2018‑19 2019‑20 2020‑21 Real GDP 2.0 ‑ 1/4 ‑2 1/2 Employment(b) 2.5 ‑4.4 1    Unemployment rate(b) 5.2 7.0 8 3/4 Consumer price index 1.6 ‑ 1/4 1 1/4 Wage price index 2.3 1 3/4 1 1/4 Nominal GDP 5.3 2    ‑4 3/4   Key policy measures – This is a delayed budget – not like a normal budget - A lot of it is specific to Covid – like health and stimulus to sectors of the economy Health – major focus - committed $9.4 billion for the health response - large‑scale purchases of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), boosting Australia’s testing capacity and ensuring access to essential health services through expanded telehealth. also investing in finding a vaccine and treatments for COVID‑19, as well as better preparing for future pandemics. The Government has boosted Australia’s testing capacity to meet the challenge of the COVID‑19 pandemic, including by establishing dedicated Medicare‑funded pathology tests and dedicated respiratory clinics, with coverage of 97 per cent of the population. The Government is also providing $3.7 billion to build our hospital system capacity Government has enabled whole‑of‑population Medicare subsidised telehealth for medical, nursing and mental health services The Government is working with Community Pharmacy and the medicines supply chain to ensure ongoing access to essential medicines to ensure that Australians in home isolation can continue to access the medicines they rely on In addition to the National Partnership Agreement on COVID‑19, the Government is investing $131.4 billion in Commonwealth funding for Australia’s public hospitals, an increase of 30 per cent over the previous five years, through the 2020‑25 National Health Reform Agreement. Reopening recovery JobKeeper payments – the payments to businesses significantly impacted by government restrictions to cover the costs of their employees’ wages over 960,000 organisations and over 3.5 million individuals covered - at 16 July, payments have totalled $30.6 billion over the six JobKeeper Payment fortnights to 21 June the Government announced the JobKeeper Payment will be extended to 28 March 2021 - Payment targeted to those businesses that continue to be most significantly affected by the economic downturn level of the JobKeeper Payment will be tapered in the December 2020 and March 2021 quarters to enable businesses to transition towards their long‑term recovery A two‑tiered payment will also be introduced from 28 September - better match the Payment with the incomes of employees before the onset of COVID‑19 It is estimated that the total cost of the JobKeeper Payment will now be $85.7 billion over 2019‑20 and 2020‑21 The review also found that the JobKeeper Payment has a number of features that may create some disincentives — for example, dampening incentives for some employees to work and for some businesses to consider their long‑term viability. While these are unlikely to be significant in the short term, the review considered that they are likely to become more pronounced the longer the program runs. Support for individuals and households – income support payments - $16.8 billion over five years from 2019‑20 Coronavirus Supplement is $550 per fortnight from 27 April 2020 until 24 September 2020. From 25 September 2020 to 31 December 2020, the Supplement will be $250 per fortnight to reflect the gradually improving economic and labour market conditions. In addition, the personal income test for JobSeeker Payment and Youth Allowance (Other) will increase to a $300 per fortnight income free area and a 60 cent taper for income above the free area Government has provided $9.4 billion for two separate $750 Economic Support Payments to social security, veteran and other income support recipients and eligible concession card holders. The first payment, made from 31 March 2020, provided $5.6 billion to over 7 million Australians - second payment commenced on 13 July 2020 and will benefit around 5 million recipients. Superannuation - individuals affected by the adverse economic effects - Government has temporarily allowed eligible individuals to access their superannuation early and tax‑free - extending the application period to 31 December 2020 The Government has also provided assistance by: temporarily halving superannuation minimum drawdown requirements for the 2019‑20 and 2020‑21 income years - lower social security deeming rates to 2.25 per cent and 0.25 per cent respectively from 1 May 2020, taking into account the low interest rate environment and its impact on income from savings. Support for businesses and employers - Cashflow and write-offs - Eligible entities automatically receive payments of between $20,000 and $100,000 for the March to September 2020 reporting periods upon lodgement of relevant activity statements. As at 16 July 2020, over 750,000 entities have received over $16 billion in cash flow support – helps reduce GST includes deregulation measures to allow companies to hold meetings virtually and execute documents electronically, to modify continuous disclosure provisions to enable companies to more confidently provide guidance to the market, and to provide relief to directors from personal liability for insolvent trading. Government is backing businesses to invest by increasing the instant asset write‑off threshold to $150,000 (up from $30,000) and expanding access to include businesses with aggregated annual turnover of less than $500 million (up from $50 million) Supporting Australians build their skills and return to work Funding additional training - $2 billion JobTrainer Skills Package establishes a $1 billion JobTrainer Fund and extends the Supporting Apprentices and Trainees wage subsidy The Government is also helping businesses keep apprentices and trainees employed. The Government’s initial $1.3 billion Supporting Apprentices and Trainees wage subsidy provides employers with 50 per cent of the apprentice or trainee’s wages for 9 months, up to $7,000 per quarter to support the continuity of training. Supporting Job Seekers Package - investing $159.5 million to assist job seekers to improve their employability and search for work, including $115.1 million to ensure job seekers can be connected to employment services at the earliest opportunity. providing job seekers with earlier access to Employment Fund credits, providing the Coronavirus Supplement to eligible New Enterprise Incentive Scheme participants and enhancing IT systems to streamline registration and referral processes in order to simplify income support claims Job‑ready Graduates Package focuses the public investment in higher education on national priorities and ensures the system delivers for students, industry and the community. The reforms will create more places at Australian universities for domestic students, with an additional 39,000 by 2023 growing to 100,000 in ten years — meaning that more Australian students will be able to get a university degree. higher education - the Government has guaranteed $18 billion in funding for universities for 2020, and has provided greater flexibility in the use of this funding. In addition, the cost to study short, online courses through universities and private providers has been reduced to support Australians to upskill or reskill. Students studying courses in key growth areas will see significant reductions in their student contributions, including by around one‑fifth for science, engineering, health, and architecture, almost one‑half for education and nursing, and over one‑half for mathematics. Infrastructure and housing sector spending  - Infrastructure - The Government continues to deliver its $100 billion pipeline of investment in transport infrastructure. The Government will provide $2.0 billion over three years from 2020‑21 for priority regional and urban transport infrastructure across Australia to support local jobs and economic recovery post COVID‑19. This includes $1 billion for shovel‑ready projects and $500 million for targeted road safety works. It also includes $500 million to local governments for a new Local Roads and Community Infrastructure Program which will help local councils undertake priority projects focused on infrastructure upgrades and maintenance. The Government will also provide an additional $1.9 billion towards other infrastructure priorities, including $1.8 billion for the Sydney Metro‑Western Sydney Airport rail project. Housing - The Government will invest $680 million in 2020‑21 through the HomeBuilder program This is the $25k grant if eligible to build or renovate - Aim to support jobs and the residential construction market by encouraging the commencement of new home builds and substantial rebuilds this calendar year. HomeBuilder will help to support around 140,000 direct jobs and around another 1 million related jobs in the residential construction sector. It is being implemented via a National Partnership Agreement, and all states and territories have signed up to deliver the program.   Covid specific policies - The Government has established a $1 billion COVID‑19 Relief and Recovery Fund to provide direct support to the regions and communities most affected by the economic impacts of the pandemic, supporting a range of industries including the aviation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and arts sectors. Examples of support include: $110 million to reduce the cost of air freight, assisting Australian exporters to maintain markets and ensuring critical imports continue to be available $94.6 million for vital funding to exhibiting zoos and aquariums, including those in regional Australia $36.3 million in 2020‑21 to provide support to agricultural show societies to meet the costs incurred through shows cancelled at short notice. Childcare - provided $1.9 billion to support the viability of the early childhood education and care sector and to provide families free childcare during the earlier stages of the pandemic. On 13 July 2020, the Government re‑established the Child Care Subsidy arrangements to ensure sufficient childcare places are available to all families and parents who wish to work. Aviation - Government will provide $1.9 billion over four years from 2019‑20 - Australian Airline Financial Relief Package provides support for the sector through rebates and fee waivers for aviation fuel excise, airservices charges on commercial aircraft operators and domestic and regional aviation security charges The Government support is in addition to $428 million for the aviation sector that the Government will provide under the Relief and Recovery Fund Aged care - The Government is ensuring the aged care sector is able to continue to provide care -the Government has provided $1.2 billion of direct assistance to support Australians in aged care including the provision of additional home care packages and additional funding to protect senior Australians in residential facilities. Arts and entertainment - The Government has committed $250 million to support production and employment in the arts and entertainment sectors. The Government commitment is a targeted package to help restart the creative economy and get the entertainment, arts and screen sectors back to work, as they rebuild from the impacts of COVID‑19, which includes: The Government will also provide $400 million over seven years from 2020‑21 to attract overseas film and television production to Australia through the Location Incentive   Supporting the flow of credit The Government, Reserve Bank of Australia, APRA and ASIC have teamed up to support the flow of credit in the Australian economy, in particular for small and medium‑sized enterprises (SMEs) The Government has provided an exemption from responsible lending obligations for a period of six months in relation to the credit that banks and other lenders extend to their existing small business customers. SME Guarantee Scheme is supporting up to $40 billion of lending to help small and medium‑sized businesses get through -More than 15,600 small and medium‑sized businesses have accepted $1.5 billion in loans The Reserve Bank of Australia has implemented measures that have significantly reduced bank funding costs, including the Term Funding Facility which will provide at least $90 billion in funding at a fixed interest rate of 0.25 per cent The Government’s Structured Finance Support Fund is providing up to $15 billion to the Australian Office of Financial Management to support continued access to structured finance markets used by smaller lenders providing both consumer and business credit   This budget is more retrospective in a way – update on what has been happening and what will happen to existing payments or policies – not like a normal budget that focuses on forward plans over the next few years – contains spending over the next year – Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/

The African Development Bank on Tuesday said the outbreak of coronavirus in Africa could cost Nigeria, Togo and other countries on the continent $236.7bn in their cumulative Gross Domestic Product. It said this in its report on African Economic Outlook (Supplement). The bank projected that if the COVID-19 pandemic and its harsh impacts persist on the continent beyond the first half of this year, there would be deeper contraction of the continent’s GDP. It estimated the Real GDP of Africa to contract by 1.7 per cent this year. This represents a 5.6 percentage points drop from the January 2020 pre-COVID–19 projection if the virus has a substantial impact but of short duration. The AfDB, however, explained that a prolonged situation into the second half of this year caused by the pandemic would result in deeper GDP contraction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The major U.S. indices closed in red territory as trade tensions ramped up on Monday. The Technology sector was hit particularly hard resulting in the NASDAQ Composite falling nearly 3% in mid-day trading. In housing news, new home sales ticked up in May, with sales increasing 6.7% from April’s revised level and are up by 14.1% from May 2017. Tuesday Energy sector stocks rallied, pushing the markets higher, giving investors a reprieve from the previous day’s performance. However, the market was down again mid-week with the Financial sector leading the way lower on the S+P 500 amid continued trade tussling. Investors have had to weigh mixed signals from the United States and China, leaving some worrying about the outlook for global growth. Thursday saw stocks stepping up on a variety of news, despite reports that U.S. gross domestic product growth slowed slightly in the first quarter. Real GDP grew 2% versus 2.9% in the fourth quarter, and the 2.2% and 2.3% growth reported for the prior two months. Additionally, initial jobless claims increased, as the Department of Labor reported new claims rose to 227,000 from 218,000 in the week ended June 23. Friday, markets were relatively flat as both China and the Trump Administration have been quiet for a few days regarding the tariffs imposed from both directions.

The major U.S. stock indices started the week in red territory on Monday, pulled down by a decline in Technology shares. U.S. tensions with North Korea also likely weighed on the market. The next day, many of the same Technology shares that were down Monday, rebounded, which helped the NASDAQ eke out a slight gain. The larger Dow Jones Industrial Average index closed less than a percentage point lower. Financial companies led stocks higher on Wednesday with investors taking bets on an improving economy and corporate profits. Gains continued on Thursday with Consumer stocks taking the lead. In economic news, the U.S. gross domestic product growth rebounded slightly in the second quarter. Real GDP ticked up 3.1%, from 1.2% growth in the first quarter. Additionally, the Department of Labor data showed first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose by 12,000 to 272,000, likely because of the recent hurricanes. Indices ended trading in the green zone on Friday with stocks posting gains on a variety of economic news. Personal income growth dipped to 0.2% from a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in July. On another note, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell by 1.7 points to 95.1 in September. Crude oil closed the week at $51.57 a barrel.

Janus Capital Management's Bill Gross says he's skeptical that real GDP growth can rise to 3 to 4 percent. Prior to that, Alan Krueger, a professor at Princeton University, says NAFTA has been positive for the U.S. Bob Doll, Nuveen's chief equity strategist, says the more restrictions enacted, the less efficient the economy will be. Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, says he expects the U.S. to revert back to the 1970s' weak dollar policy. Finally, PIMCO's Scott Mather says investors are underpricing central bank action. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Janus Capital Management's Bill Gross says he's skeptical that real GDP growth can rise to 3 to 4 percent. Prior to that, Alan Krueger, a professor at Princeton University, says NAFTA has been positive for the U.S. Bob Doll, Nuveen's chief equity strategist, says the more restrictions enacted, the less efficient the economy will be. Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, says he expects the U.S. to revert back to the 1970s' weak dollar policy. Finally, PIMCO's Scott Mather says investors are underpricing central bank action.

Larry's Guests and Topics: Gen. Jack Keane: Trump's national security challenges. Generals at NSC, DoD, State? Lt Gen Michael Flynn, Gen James Mattis, Gen David Petraeus. Russia, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, ISIS, China, N. Korea. Dana Petrino: "Let me tell you about Jasper: How My Best Dog Became America's Dog." Trump press sec and communications director? Kellyanne Conway & Sean Spicer. Jason Miller? Trump's stock market growth rally: Real rates, Real dollar, Real GDP all up, along w/ stocks. Profits? Econ stronger or weaker? Interest rates & multiples? Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher: Trump will have 5 appointments. Reform Fed? Dec target rate hike? Follow rates higher in stronger economy?

Business & Information Technology

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