Podcasts about alternative visions

 Today's show first of two parts on how current events, geopolitical and US domestic, represent the start of a fundamental US restructuring of its global empire. US-Russia meeting in Riyadh Saudi Arabia marks the opening event. What happened in Riyadh? Zelensky reacts. European leaders in tizzy over being side-lined. Starmer (UK)-Macron (France) on coming Europe take over of the war as US bows out. Implications of US-EU feuding for future of NATO. US VP Vance's speech in Munich. Current emerging restructuring of US empire in context of prior restructurings in 1913-1919, 1944-50, and 1979-85. Next week: How Trump domestic policy (economic & political) and DOGE $2T spending cuts reflects US imperial restructuring as well.

Dr. Jack Rasmus is a professor of political economics at St. Mary's College in California. Prior to teaching, he spent 18 years as an economic analyst for several global corporations and an organizer, negotiator and business representative for several labor unions. At one time he was elected as the National First Vice President of the National Writers Union.  In addition to his economic profession, Dr. Rasmus is a playwright and author of fictional works dealing with social struggles, and the owner of Kyklos Productions. His journalist writing appears in various economic, political and labor magazines, including the European Financial Review, World Financial Review, Z Magazine and others. He is the author of many books, most recent being “The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump” and “Alexander Hamilton and the Origins of the Fed”. Jack also hosts a radio program “Alternative Visions” on the Progressive Radio Network every Friday at 2 pm Eastern time. His website is JackRasmus.com 

In the past week Trump issued four announcements that continue to portend a radical restructuring of the US imperial system. First: US proposes to ‘own' GAZA, allowing Israel to focus on future expansion into Syria, west bank & Lebanon, and shift its policy from genocide to ethnic cleansing. The role of Trump son-in-law Kushner's US-Israel real estate consortium behind the scenes. Second, Trump holds 90 min. talk with Putin, followed by 10 min. with Zelensky, while ignoring the Europeans who in response are now freaking out. Third, Trump announces escalation of US tariff weapon by introducing principle of ‘reciprocal' tariffs with all US trading partners + offers rollback of US use of sanctions. Fourth, Trump offers Russia to rejoin US SWIFT international payments system, then threatens BRICS with 100% tariffs if they abandon the US $ in trade, declaring thereafter ‘the BRICS are dead!'. Show concludes what we are witnessing is the beginning of the restructuring of US imperial relations abroad, while simultaneously the Trump government takes on the US bureaucratic State apparatus bloated by empire to reduce its power and influence over the government.

 today's show addresses Trump's recent foreign policies moves, including US ‘owning' GAZA, Trump overtures to negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada and their response sending 10k troops to US border, Rubio's visit to Panama, latest on Greenland and China tariffs exchanges. The show then  describes the various US moves in recent years that have had the effect of making Europe a growing economic and political dependency of the US. Show closes with early discussion of Trump's proposed tax cut bill and DOGE. Trump policies represent historic and unprecedented effort by the government to tame and bring the capitalist state under its control once again after decades of the latter exerting supremacy over the former

Today's show moves on to the Trump years, with many more shows to come no doubt. It's been only one week but some outlines of where Trump may be going are emerging. Today the discussion focuses on the emerging spending cuts and how they're designed to pay for Trump's new tax cuts. Some DOGE austerity targets are discussed. How $200B/yr will cover just half of Trump's $400B/yr tax cuts. How Tariffs & assumed GDP growth is supposed to cover the rest. That still leaves $1-$1.5 trillion budget deficit for 2025, however. What's behind Trump's talk about providing another $500B stimulus for artificial intelligence? Or his ‘drill baby drill'. What's the multiple roles for tariffs? In global geopolitics, some scenarios behind Trump's emerging attitude to Ukraine war. Why war won't end until late 2025. The likely Trump strategy behind Greenland and Panama Canal.

 As Joe Biden prepares to leave office on Jan. 20, what area the legacies he leaves behind. Today's show reviews those legacies—economic and political, domestic and global. For the US economy, a review of the inflation legacy, Covid relief program and results, the Biden jobs record, subsidies to corporate investment, actual US GDP, budget and trade deficits, and national debt. In domestic politics his contributions to the decline of democracy, identity politics, immigration and the failed election of 2024. In foreign policy: the debacle retreat from Afghanistan, his preparation and provocation of the US proxy war in Ukraine, Russia and China tariffs and sanction, support for Israeli genocide in GAZA, and policies that accelerated the rise of the BRICS and their challenge to the US global economic hegemony.

 this show continues the beginning of 2025 predictions for US domestic and global politics (see last week's show for economic predictions). Predictions include Ukraine army will collapse by the summer and real negotiations then begin. Before talks commence with no solution. Europe: Germany's Afd right wing party will win big in the February elections. Instability in Europe will grow. EU will begin to steal Russia's frozen assets in its bank. Russia will conclude mutual defense treaty with Iran and more countries will join BRICS in 2025. Israel will air attack Iran and US-Israel will occupy Damascus replacing HTS rebels. Turkey will defeat Kurds and de facto occupy north of former Syria. Political instability will intensify in So Korea, In US politics, Greenland will break from Denmark and negotiate with USA as a territory. Panama Canal will agree to joint control of the canal with US. Trump will renegotiate trade deals with Canada, Mexico and Europe, in a comprehensive ‘Plaza Accords 2.0' Musk and DOGE will recommend $200B annual spending cuts and Congress will pass Trump's tax cuts extension costing US budget $4T next decade. Trump will slash foreign aid, education, federal work force, energy subsidies, and restart southern US border wall construction. US budget deficit will again hit $1.5T in 2025 despite the cuts.

Predictions were made for this coming year for the US and global economies. They include likelihood of recession in 1H25 beyond goods sector,  inflation likely to drift up again, Fed rate policy, DOGE/Congress austerity measures cutting social programs, Trump tax cuts, deficits and national debt, Tariffs and their consequences, AI technology trends, financial asset markets (stocks and bonds). For the global economy the direction of the US $ short term v. long, a new Plaza Accord 2.0 for US allies, likelihood of Europe sliding further into recession, BRICS expansion in '25, Russia's economy and China's. (Next week: predictions for US domestic political scene and geopolitical developments re. Ukraine & middle east, Russian sanctions, and So. Korea political instability. Also: the legacies of Jimmy Carter presidency)

Today's show is the annual year end summary of the more important events and developments for 2024 for the economy and politic: A review of the US economy inflation trends, Fed rate policies, US goods sector recession, USA's runaway budget deficit and national debt, Longshore union negotiations, Artificial Intelligence & Tech trends, pending 2025 Austerity social program cuts & Musk's DOGE, Biden sanctions on Russia and China, BRICS expansion, the state of Europe & China economies, and the emerging global currency instability as prices and US $ rise. Political review includes the US election of 2024, Trump's victory, Biden's coup & Democrat party confusion, and globally the War on the ground in Ukraine, Israel wars in Lebanon-Iran-Yemen, and the collapse of Syria and its consequences. (NEXT WEEK: Annual economic and political predictions for 2025 and review of last year's predictions for 2024)

Today's show discusses the key economic events of recent weeks and their relevance to economic policy in 2025. Why did the debt-ceiling deal collapse and then pass last week. What does it mean. Trump's fiscal strategy taking shape: tariffs, tax cuts, and austerity social spending cuts coming. Musk-Swarmy's DOGE. Why it won't resolve the chronic $1 trillion plus annual budget deficits, rising national debt, and $ trillion annual payments to rich bondholders. Neoliberalism fiscal contradictions and crisis will continue. What's Musk's DOGE plans? Why the Fed cut interest rates but admitted inflation is rising into 2025. Why inflation will continue to rise. As rates rise will a rising dollar in turn precipitate a global currency war? (Next week show: review of key events of 2024 and my predictions for 2024 made December 2023 last year)

As follow up to last week's show Ukraine war is center topic. But in past week pro-NATO forces opened up new ‘fronts' well beyond the conflict. Not by accident rebel forces, coordinating with Turkish, Israeli and US forces accelerating an attack in Syria opening a new front Russia must commit forces to. Another front is Georgia as CIA-US NGO forces continue street demonstrations to try to overthrow that country's elected government, in a ‘color revolution' effort much like Ukraine 2014. Yet a third front is the events in So. Korea where the pro-US president attempted to declare martial law, reversed by the Parliament, but supported by the Korean and US occupation military. The show explains how all three events are best understood as events related to US empire counters to Russia-China.  Trump's latest tariff moves against China and BRICS also part of the counter strategy. Show concludes with analysis of Trump's several anti-war initial nominees being rejected as US neocons & Biden admin. buy time to restore aid & weapons to Ukraine

Today's show focuses on last two weeks' events in Ukraine wear and the steady US/NATO escalation. Biden approves US long range missiles fired into Russia; US & France provide Storm Shadow long range missiles in turn; Macron reportedly (by Le Monde) again discussing sending French troops; NATO planning document reveals plan for Poland-Romania-UK-Germany to divide up Ukraine; US general Bauer, head of NATO military commission publicly calls for ‘pre-emptive' strike on Russia; Biden gives Ukraine another $700m and calls for another $24B and tells Ukraine to lower its draft age to 18; Trump NSA pick Gorka calls Putin a thug and warns US under Trump will double its aide, Trump selects neocon friendly NSA advisers raising doubt about his campaign promises to end the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Putin answers NATO/US escalation with new Oreshnik hypersonic missile with 36 warheads, lowers decision to use tactical nukes, threatens to hit any NATO base from which missiles are fired, signs mutual defense treaty with Iran, and gives warnings to west in speech in Kazakhstan. 

A big debate in the mainstream media during the recent election was why do surveys show average American voters don't believe the economy is doing as great as government data indicate? More specifically, why do they believe inflation is higher than reported by the Consumer Price Index? Today's Alternative Visions show takes on that issue: why prices are higher than government price indexes report. Latest CPI report this past week said prices rose only 2.6% over the past year. (The companion government PCE report is even lower).  What the media doesn't report, however, is the various assumptions and questionable methodologies the government uses in estimating prices and inflation. Today's show explains briefly 14 of them. Inflation is easily therefore not 2.6% but more than 4% in general. In some areas of the economy rose at double digit levels the past year. And since 2019 around 30-35%. The show concludes with evidence even prices per the government indexes are creeping back up. And several forces threaten in 2025 to escalate the rate of inflation as well (for gasoline, insurances, imports, child care and other services).

Today's show topic is an assessment of the November 6 election and why Trump won. What were some interesting facts about both the electoral college vote outcome and the national popular vote totals that the mainstream media is ignoring? What new strategies Trump introduced that may have made a difference vs. old strategies Harris carried out that no longer resonate with voters>? Is there a political party realignment that is now beginning? Is Identity politics now DOA? The show concludes with some early predictions what Trump will focus on first after January 20. Why Austerity big social program spending cuts are coming. How will Trump handle the rise of the BRICS? (For my latest written article on the same topics go to https://jackrasmus.com/2024/11/08/why-trump-won-and-some-consequences/ ) Or to the LA Progressive blog for November 8.

the latest US Labor Dept jobs out today show a rapidly deteriorating jobs market. Not just in the media oft-cited CES (large corporations) jobs data but in the Labor Dept's second CPS survey that picks up smaller businesses which is retreating even faster.  CES jobs for October rose a mere 12,000. (And previous months were revised down to an average jobs growth of only 67,000/mo. July-Sept. Even worse, the CPS jobs survey showed -220,000 net employment fall in October. Full time jobs continued to disappear while part time rose. Other negative job stats were discussed in the show. Slowing jobs picture contradicts media hype the economy was doing great in third quarter. The second half of the show discusses the 3 existential issues in the current US election being totally ignored by both Harris and Trump: the massive and accelerating US budget deficits, national debt and interest payments on the debt, the big Austerity spending cuts coming in 2025 regardless who wins the election, and the BRICS challenge to the very foundations of the US global economy empire that is developing further as well with 13 new BRICS members joining the current 10. (For more on my analysis of the BRICS check out my Youtube interview along with Indian economist, S.L.Kanthan, at https://www.youtube.com/live/veY2FoKsyuY )

Today's show is dedicated to this past week's historic BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia and how it represents the most serious challenge underway to US Global Economic hegemony. What are the key institutions of US global economic power? How do the BRICS alternative economic infrastructure challenge the dominance of the key US institutions and vehicles of US power: the IMF, World Bank, SWIFT, the $dollar, the twin deficits solution to recycling dollars, etc. A history of the origins and causes of the rise of the BRICS are discussed today. And how the BRICS are an existential challenge to US global economic dominance. For more on this topic, join the discussion on the same with myself and India economist, S.L. Kanthan, this coming Sunday, October 27, at 9am pacific time at: https://www.youtube.com/live/veY2FoKsyuY?si=4lEsQnyhDtzd215u

Last Wednesday October 17 Ukraine's de facto president, Zelensky, gave a speech to his Parliament explaining his 5 point Plan for victory in Ukraine's war with Russia. It wasn't a military roadmap but a political list of demands on the US and NATO. He had previously presented the plan to Biden and other head of Europe NATO countries who had clearly pre-vetted the presentation, including no doubt the 3 additional points in the Plan to the 5 announced. Today's show discusses the 5 points announced, and suggests what the ‘secret' (Zelensky's words) 3 additional might have included. Following his speech to Ukraine's Parliament, Zelensky gave it again to NATO representatives in Brussels. Then gave a press interview in which he admitted the ‘plan' was essentially to bring NATO quickly into Ukraine, or else—as Zelensky told the press—Ukraine would be a nuclear weapon. A double blackmail of NATO and Russia. For more details and discussion of the consequences, listen to my Friday, October 19 show.

Today's show focuses on upcoming November election. The status in the swing states is reviewed. How the candidates stand on the two key issues in the election per polls: Economy and Decline of Democracy in USA. Trump v. Harris proposals on issues appealing to working class voters in the key 3 northern swing states: taxes on tips, overtime pay, social security income, SALT, interest tax deductions on auto loans. The real condition of inflation since 2019. Conflicting stats on real wages and take home pay. The Labor Dept latest jobs report. The silent issue neither candidate is talking about: runaway deficits and national debt and nearly $1 trillion/yr interest payments on the debt now. Why whoever wins in November will propose severe Austerity programs. How the BRICS expansion and new financial world system represents an existential threat to US global economic hegemony and empire and how it will blowback on US economy. Show concludes with discussion how both parties are engaged in destruction of US democracy.

Why did ILA union leaders suspend their strike after just 3 days? Some reasons you won't read in the mainstream media. The Union was in a very strong position to gain its demands, the most important being wage catch up and Artificial Intelligence threat to automate away jobs. After just 3 days the shippers also agreed to union's demand for 62% wage hike (over 6 yrs.). Why so quickly as well? My Answer: Biden administration behind the scenes warned the ILA it would implement the Taft-Hartley law to force workers back for another 80 days if the union did not go back to work.  This was the Biden ‘carrot' to the ‘stick' threat of Taft Hartlely. Shippers could easily afford the wage increase but want AI-automation more for long run profits. Now ILA union will resume negotiations in January 15 on the job security AI-automation issue, but without its current bargaining leverage of pre-election and holiday season strike. Second half of show addresses the Sept. jobs numbers explaining why 254k Sept new jobs vs. August's 128k. Media confused as to the change. Listen to my simple explanation for the Aug v. Sept difference

Alongside immigration, there is another issue testing diplomacy between the U.S. and Mexico in 2024. Increasingly unpredictable weather patterns in combination with growth in both population and industrial demand have made it difficult, if not impossible, for the two nations to meet the obligations defined by their 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty.  The Tijuana, Rio Grande, and Colorado Rivers have long supported the growing border region. However, like the Colorado River Compact between U.S. states, the 1944 international treaty was developed during a 30-year period of unusual regional water abundance--extremely disparate from today's climate and demand. Intense strain is already being felt by water users on both sides of the border, and the future will be increasingly difficult if aging policies and infrastructure cannot be quickly brought up-to-date.   The International Boundary and Water Commission (“Comisión Internacional de Límites y Aguas”) is the binational governmental agency that administers this expansive treaty. Beginning in 2021, the Commission worked with experts to adjust the treaty's terms to 21st-century constraints. Though the team was unable to meet a target date to complete renegotiation in December 2023, increased activity in domestic legislation and binational research have since demonstrated growing motivation to master the availability of water resources in the region.     To help us understand this complex issue, Ten Across founder Duke Reiter speaks with two renowned transborder experts, Francisco Lara-Valencia and Stephen Mumme. Francisco and Stephen were among those who answered the IBWC's request for expert policy recommendations in 2021. Together, they'll discuss a confluence of factors requiring the IBWC to modernize transboundary water governance, and what this means for the Ten Across region.  Relevant links and resources:   Episode one of our ‘Border Series': “10X Border Series: Why U.S. Immigration Reform is Critical to Our Future with Dr. David Shirk” (Ten Across Conversations, 2024)  “Managing Groundwater on the US-Mexico Border is Challenging—But Vital” (APM Research Lab/Ten Across, 2024)  “Water treaty between Mexico and U.S. faces biggest test in 80 years” (NPR, 2024)  “Water Management on the U.S.-Mexico Border: Achieving Water Sustainability and Resilience through Cross-Border Cooperation” (Lara-Valencia, Francisco, Irasema Coronado, Stephen Mumme, et al. 2023)  Border Water: The Politics of U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Water Management, 1945-2015 (Mumme, Stephen, 2023)  “Alternative Visions of the U.S. Southern Border Yesterday, Tomorrow, and Today” (Ten Across Conversations, 2023)

 today's show addresses #1 issue in polls that US economy remains the key issue in the Nov 2024 elections with voter concern for inflation remaining at the core. Harris says inflation has ‘come down' & Trump says prices remain unaffordable. Which is true? Both. The show reviews the current high plateaued level of prices, including housing, rents, gasoline, food, autos and insurances, between 25%-35% above 2019 depending on sources. The candidates ‘dueling tax' cut promises are compared and the condition of 120m households' debt now at record levels (mortgage, credit card, autos, student loans) with delinquencies beginning to appear. Ability of consumers to continue spending given minimal real wage raises, rising debt & declining household savings rate, rising poverty rate and 40% increase of use of food banks since 2022. Unemployment at 8% (not 4.3%) per govt's U-6 statistic. The show concludes with discussion of recent Zelensky-Biden meeting and US media-elite criticism of Zelensky's ‘Victory Plan'

For more than a decade, the topic of immigration has remained at the center of national debate in the U.S. and has become an unfortunate source of rancor between the two major political parties. As a result, efforts to reform an aging and ineffective immigration system have been largely unsuccessful. Meanwhile, pressures on the U.S.-Mexican border continue to grow.  A convergence of factors, including climate change and a rise in organized crime and authoritarian leadership, is forcing desperate families from Central and South America and other parts of the globe to seek refuge in the U.S. Many experts point to these externalities and the expiration of Trump-era asylum restrictions as the combined cause for the Border Patrol's record-breaking numbers of migrant encounters in the second half of 2023.  In response to this surge and a growing backlog of asylum and immigration cases, Congress attempted to pass historic bipartisan reform under the Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act in February 2024. The bill would have increased support for border security efforts and the immigration court system. Like many previous attempts at reform, it succumbed to politics.  Why has the U.S. dragged its feet on improving immigration processes and monitoring for more than 20 years? What does this mean for frontline communities in the Ten Across region as global trade becomes more regionalized, and climate and political tensions intensify? Listen in as Ten Across founder Duke Reiter and U.S.-Mexico border relations expert David Shirk explore these questions, as well as the history of this fraught political boundary, from its establishment to its significance to modern American isolationism.  Relevant links and resources:  justiceinmexico.org  “Takeaways from the Texas Tribune-Associated Press report on 24 hours along the Texas-Mexico border” (The Texas Tribune, 2024)  “How the 10X Region Can Plan for Climate Migration with Abrahm Lustgarten” (Ten Across Conversations, 2024)  “10X Trendline: Unprecedented Migration Patterns Are Testing U.S. Diplomacy in the Ten Across Region” (Ten Across Blog, 2024)“Alternative Visions of the Southern U.S. Border Yesterday, Tomorrow, and Today”  (Ten Across Conversations, 2023)

Today's show covers what's behind Fed's .50 pt rate cut? Powell says Fed because ‘economy is good'. More likely because US goods sector economy weak. Data shows US goods sector in recession. Fed GDP forecast for 3rd quarter 1.7%, closer to 1st quarter's 1.4% not 2nd's 2.8%. Why massive US deficits & debt will mean big austerity spending cuts in 2025 further deepening recession. Wars update: the Mossad ‘pager' sabotage event and almost certain war against Hezbollah in north within weeks. Netanyahu's strategy: get US in war with Iran. Zelensky's pending ‘victory plan' & political maneuvering behind allowing UK missiles to attack deep into Russia. Pentagon vs Neocons & why Biden delayed decision until 9-26. The EU's desperate ‘plan B' to fund Ukraine. Why it won't work any more than ‘Plan A'.

first half of today's show discusses the ominous escalation in the Ukraine war with US/UK approval for Ukraine to use US/UK long range missiles to target deep into Russia. Putin's ominous warning of ‘war with NATO'. What happened to Zelensky's ‘Victory Plan'? How Ukraine has been sabotaging efforts by BRICS to arrange negotiations. What's happening on the Kursk and Donbass fronts in Ukraine. Political instability growing within NATO ranks (Germany, France, USA). Is Biden or the neocons now running the US govt? Why 32,000 Boeing workers rejected the pattern contract proposal. My review of the recent Trump-Harris presidential debate. Why neither candidate addressed the #1 issue of the economy according to polls. What was covered and not addressed in the debate. (For detailed print analysis read my article ‘The 2nd First Presidential Debate' on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com (or on Counterpunch, LA Progressive, Z, or World Financial Review public blogs).

today's show focuses on the condition of the US working class in terms of wages, jobs, debt, and unions as of labor day 2024 today. Citing various US government data sources, and contrary to the selective cherry picked stats that appear in the US mainstream media and cited by politicians, the picture for US workers today in terms of wages, jobs, debt and their unions show continued stagnation or decline over the past year, and especially since 2020.  Even based on US government data sources, US economic GDP since 2021 has been weak given the $10 trillion plus fiscal-monetary stimulus since 2020. Workers' wages continue to contract in real terms given the period of inflation. The jobs created have been far less than the Biden administration has claimed. And US unions continue to tread water in terms of membership. (For a published print version of this analysis, those interested may read the same analysis at my personal blog at https://jackrasmus.com/2024/09/02/labor-day-2024-the-condition-of-the-american-working-class-today/

today's Alternative Visions show focuses in detail on the current status of the war in Ukraine in general, and specifically on the two main offensives in progress: Russia in the Donbass region and Ukraine in the Kursk region. What's the status of forces on both sides. Why did Ukraine invade Kursk on August 6 and how is that progressing after two weeks? Did the Russians get caught off guard? Why did Russia invade Kharkov region last May and why is there a stalemate there? What's happening in the Donbass region and why Russia is accelerating its gains there. Finally, by invading Kursk have the Ukrainians in effect decided to sacrifice the Donbass to Russia? Show concludes with a brief commentary on RFKjr's decision to leave the US election race and endorse Trump. (Check out my blog jackasmus.com for a detailed print article, ‘A Tale of Two Offensives' on Monday as well).

First half of show discusses Ukraine war and specifically what's behind Ukraine's recent invasion into Russia's Kursk region. What's Ukraine & Russia respectively strategies and objectives in Kursk. 3 Ukraine objectives. Russia objectives. Which side's strategic reserves will be exhausted first? A detail discussion follows of today's Wall St. Journal article (a CIA planted piece?) about who destroyed the Nordstream pipeline 2 yrs ago. Why the piece is part of media preparation to prepare public for removal of Zelensky after the US election. Why Ukraine negotiations are now impossible and China has ended efforts to arrange talks. Some reasons why Iran hasn't responded to Israel yet. How Zionists in US are preparing to thwart student protests this fall. Second half of show turns to US economy and recent PPI and CPI reports last week. What's declining in price and what's not in July. The chronic and continuing big problem of Rents. How landlords are gaming prices as real US average weekly wages falling. What's coming in producer prices. Continuing high level of consumer inflation for housing, food, gasoline now embedded in economy despite recent CPI reports. US Households' record debt (mortgage, credit cards, auto, student, medical, etc.) as percent of income at 54%.

 First half of today's show discusses Ukraine's offensive into Russia. What are Ukraine's possible objectives? Initial successful tactics. Why did Russia not see it coming? Russia's response to date and consequences for efforts to start negotiations. What's the condition of the US real economy. Growing concern early phase of recession, as the goods sector of the economy weakens: unemployment rising, real retail sales contracting, PMI manufacturing continues 8th month of decline, net exports deeply negative, and construction turning down again. Explanations of actual GDP, inflation, jobs data. Investors call for emergency Fed rate cuts before Sept. Why the Fed won't. How the tech bubble and Japan's carry trade are interrelated

Show discusses likely major escalation of war in Middle East as Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon vow response to Israel's assassinations. April 2024 Déjà vu but worse. US sending more aircraft carrier task force. Crisis imminent. Latest on Ukraine war as US and Russia announce sending intermediate range missiles to Poland-Belarus border. Some signs of secret discussions between US and Russia. Second half of show addresses big shift in US economy last week. Inflation no longer #1 issue. Recession now on agenda as Friday jobs report and earlier data on manufacturing, construction, and retail sales all show rapid slowing of US economy. JPM bank forecasts 50% chance recession. Fed will cut rates for certain in Sept (maybe earlier) as financial markets in US, Japan and global turn down sharply. Another ‘Black Monday' for stocks possible next week on August 5. Iran signals attack Monday as well. Why US jobs report is far weaker than media reporting. Globally, Malaysia announces joining BRICS and more in Asia to soon follow as BRICS announce own int'l payments system.

Today's show focuses on Biden's 11 minute announcement he's withdrawing from election 2024 and fact checks Biden's 3 claims: 1. there's no crisis at the US border…as 2m illegals/yr enter the USA; his claim US has not been at war anywhere during his term… vs. US forces today in Ukraine, Israel, & Yemen; and his claim the US economy is ‘best in the world'… vs. reality re. US inflation, jobs, household debt, surging US deficits-debt-interest, and actual GDP first half 2024 after statistical adjustments are removed.  Show concludes with US wars Update for Ukraine (Zelensky-Trump phone call & Beijing's diplomacy) and Yemen (Israeli escalation) and with latest news for BRICS on eve of their forthcoming announcement of an alternative global financial structure…and what it means for US domestic economy and empire.

 today's show updates US 3 wars (Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan) as critical strategic NATO meeting underway today. Ukraine: Orban's meeting with Ukraine and Russia; Saudi's leader MBS threatens Europe it will withdraw funds in EU banks if it seizes its $260B Russian assets; how falling US dollar (as BRICS implement own currency) will negatively impact US deficits, debt and real economy; NATO's imminent ‘no fly' zone-and what it means? Latest on Israel's renewed bombing of northern Gaza cities as AIPAC intensifies attack on US universities. How Europe is becoming an economic dependency of USA. Second half of the show focuses on US economy: GDP, latest inflation report vs. real prices paid by consumers, ASA Report on US data reliability, why Median Annual Income for US family of four is really $96k not official $67k. Show concludes with review of growing pressures  for Biden to step down (by donors, businesses, Hollywood celebrities)as polls show Biden continuing to lose ground in key 7 swing states.

New Ukraine war offensives (both Ukraine & Russia) coming by July 7. Putin's visit to North Korea & Viet Nam as Russian response to US/EU bilateral defense deals with Ukraine. Are both sides lining up allies in preparation for a wider war? Similarities with summer 1914. Netanyahu out-maneuvers Biden (again). Is a larger war with Hezbollah near? US media blackout of Yemen war as Houthis winning Red Sea blockade. On he economic front: What's happening in the US  goods sector (construction-manufacturing)? Trump focuses on more business tax cuts as centerpiece of his economic program: proposes replacing corporate income tax with tariffs as CEOs push to end all US taxation on their foreign profits and reducing current 21% corporate tax rate to 15% for all business. What's in Trump's 2018 Tax Cuts 2.0 for 2025? The US Supreme Court's rules against any future Wealth Tax on billionaires, saying US Constitution allows tax only on income not wealth (even though Constitution provides for taxation “from whatever source derived”). Meanwhile, SCOTUS protects Trump 2018 tax cut for corporations' offshore profits. (Next week: the tightly scripted and controlled ‘debate' between Biden and Trump later this week)

 In today's latest of US wars update, support for Ukraine war in Europe weakening reflected in just held EU Parliamentary elections. Pro war parties in France and Germany suffer big setbacks in the elections. In Ukraine war escalation news, France promises Mirage jets & Germany sends Patriots systems. Intense fighting in Kharkhov front coming. What is Russia's strategy? The show reveals latest details how US/NATO/EU plan to keep funding Ukraine after 2024. What's happening in Red Sea? Latest US economy news: Trump announces replacing Income tax with tariffs. Latest US Inflation report. World Bank global GDP report and latest on Argentina Milei plan    

First half hour of show is weekly update on US wars—Ukraine, Gaza, Red Sea and Taiwan: Biden and Zelensky both signal less stringent demands as condition for negotiations. Zelensky's doomed Switzerland conference and weird trip to Singapore and Manila. Ukraine's growing imbalance in combat troops and weapons vs. Russia. Actual Russian strategy: n big offensive but open multiple fronts and spread out Ukraine's depleting reserves. Natanyahu thumbs his nose at Biden over Rafah and Biden's real strategy. Whatever happened to the Red Sea war that's unreported in US media. Why US Marines are now on Philippine islands in sight of Taiwan and training for landings. The latest on May US jobs report. Why 4% unemployment is 7.4% and rising over past year. Why latest 272,000 jobs is distorted by govt's Birth-Death business model. Some interesting job stats re. job market over past 12 months shows weak not strong job market: Mostly management and professional jobs created past year. 700k leave the labor force (reducing unemployment rate). 750k involuntary part time job created and 650k increase in 2nd and 3rd job holders = most jobs created last year were 2nd/3rd part time jobs + management and professional jobs.

A number of critical events occurred in the US proxy war in Ukraine during the past week: Wall St. Journal describes US/EU plan to release $260B of Russian frozen assets in EU banks to fund Ukraine in 2025; NATO and US approve Ukraine use of long range missiles to strike within Russia, signaling a strategic escalation of the war. Ukraine strikes Russian intercontinental ballistic missile warning system deep inside Russia. One step closer to US-Russia nuclear exchange. Putin-Lavrov publicly say Russia already at war with NATO. Latest on Israel attack of Rafah city; US and UK renew bombing of Yemen; US CIA & NGOs maneuvering in the Caucasus region's 3 countries. Putin visits central asia countries & signs deal for Afghanistan to provide contract troops for Ukraine war. Second half of the show addresses just released revised US GDP for 1st Quarter showing even slower growth at only 1.3% annual GDP growth. Consumer spending on goods, residential housing, and imports all adding to the slowdown while bus. Investment in factories and AI keeps GDP from slowing even further. Why IP category added to GDP in 2013 keeps the economy registering recession on paper GDP even if not in actual terms. Is the US economy on the way to a second post-Covid (2020-21) contraction (first double dip was in 2022)?

Focus on what's happening in Europe and Its new plan to give profits from seized $260B of Russian assets to Ukraine. Russia's seizure of Deutschbank & Commerzbank response. US media admits NATO ‘price cap' sanction on Russian oil sales a failure. Biden spins it as a success. Ukraine war update: Zelensky no longer president but continues in office. The real strategic objective in Russia's new Kharkov offensive. CIA and Mossad join forces setting entire Caucasus region on political fire. Some curious facts about Iranian president's recent death. The show concludes with broad summary of state of US economy: home sales, PMIs, & commercial real estate funds (REITs) growing crisis; Yellen/US reject idea of 2% global wealth tax on millionaires; Pentagon spending hits $884B/yr.; highest paid US CEOs rake in $4B, up from $800m.

With BRICS conferences coming this year and fundamental challenges to US economic empire coming in 2025 and after, the US empire continues to react and fight back. Today's show reviews the hot spots: In Ukraine, Russia military advances resulting in more NATO escalation including US signaling Ukraine it's ok to use missiles to attack inside Russia; re China, US policy expands sanctions plus reintroduces a Trump tariff strategy as US tech corps in China begin to exit; in So. America, Argentina's IMF-Banks model of super-neolib policies devastate the economy, crash the currency 90% and raise poverty to 58% in order to pay IMF & western banks bondholders; in Europe, US multiple US policies now driving Europe to deeper economic dependency on US and US political vassalage. Meanwhile, US economy slows steadily as both housing and manufacturing continue to contract, price gouging remains chronic, real wages slowing fast, real retail sales stagnate, and banks expand debt leverage while corporate profit margins, stock prices, and buybacks accelerate.

 In critical week of the Ukraine war, NATO beginning to panic & threaten escalation: Macron, Cameron & Jeffries talk of NATO troops in Ukraine. Russia reacts announcing tactical nuke exercises and call in UK and French ambassadors. Assassination attempt on Zelensky foiled. Ukraine begins drafting prisoners. Russia Kharkov offensive begins early on May 10. Blinken-Yellen visit and threaten China. Importance of coming BRICS conference in June. Today's show then turns to US domestic issues and discusses new Report of 11.4% rise in 2023 CEO pay  to record median $23.7 million ( with stock awards up 20%). Shareholders returns also up 13.8% in 2023. All CEO & shareholder data =>3 times current  inflation or wages. Trend to continue as Corp buybacks in 2024 to exceed $700B for Fortune 500(+ another $500B for dividends.  Meanwhile, interest charges on student debt to rise to 6.5%-7.5% and Social Security Fund Trustees warn of inadequate funds for retirees coming

Today's show reviews major developments in various global economies: In USA, the Fed's latest decision to keep interest rates at current levels + its decision to start buying back US Treasuries (QE by another name perhaps?). Why the liquidity injection? Answer: growing concerns about US banks in 2025? Next, is China growing again or not? The idiocy of US policy toward China as Blinken and Yellen attack it economically but request it intervene on behalf of US with Russia and Ukraine. What's happening in Europe with France announcing it will send troops to Ukraine as EU (and UK) economy stagnates. ECB chair, La Garde, worries about seizing $260B Russian assets. How this may lead to de-dollarization and de-euroization. What's happening in Argentina as its peso is devalued by 50%. A deeper look at Office Commercial Real Estate in the USA, US Govt Debt, and US Treasury's record level of current bond buying.

 The first pass for US GDP for 1st Quarter 2024 was released last week. Today's show dissects the areas generating growth vs. those slowing US economy. Takeaways from the data are discussed: Contracting now are consumer spending on goods, business private inventories and a big contraction in net exports. Only consumer spending on services continue to drive GDP as government spending slows but remains positive. The show explains why the 1.6% GDP rise in Jan-March was actually lower, once the adjustment for prices is more accurately estimated. Why and how the US low-balls inflation and thereby boosts real GDP. Real growth in US economy was therefore flat. The show then discusses why mainstream economists consistently get their forecasts of the economy wrong—prices, jobs, and GDP—because their forecast models contain multiple assumptions that are simply incorrect.

today's show focuses on the theme of the impact of Russian sanctions since the start of the Ukraine war. How the sanctions have failed to impact Russia's economy while simultaneously helping to wreck Europe's, and especially the core German economy of the EU. A review of the relative economic data. Also discussed, are the pending US House vote tomorrow likely to pass another $100B in war aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, which will include reportedly US approval to distribute the $300B in seized Russian assets ($240B in Europe banks). This is how the US plans to continue financial support for Ukraine war in 2025, after the $61B ‘bridge' fund in the US House bill. The show also addresses how US economic policies (of which sanctions are just a part) have undermined Germany's economy and are making Europe increasingly dependent on the US. Discussion of the latest developments in the Israel-Iran and Ukraine wars concludes the show.

Today's show covers the key events, economic & political, of the past week: US latest inflation numbers and trends, why Fed rate cuts are off the table, instability in regional banks and commercial real estate continue, Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's remarks on rate hikes at 8% and ‘soft landing' scenario, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in China. In Politics, whether war between Israel-USA with Iran is imminent, latest developments on French & NATO troops in Ukraine, the coming Russian big offensive in Kharkov, Russia's talk of ‘unconditional surrender' and Ukraine's desperate manpower shortage and its new draft law.

2024 is junctural year in Ukraine war. All three parties' strategies—US/NATO, Ukraine, Russia—are in flux and changing as fallout from Ukraine's summer 2023 offensive defeat by Russia continues to reverberate in political terms and as Russia offensive in 2024 emerges. What were the parties respective strategies in 2022, how did they shift in 2023, and how are they about to change again in 2024 are discussed in today's show. Some likely scenarios by year end 2024 and US elections in November. Has NATO already lost, as more analysts now saying? Will NATO intervene directly before it is? The intro to the show comments on the just released jobs report for March and what the numbers mean for rising US inflation since January, Fed interest rate policy, and the surging US interest on the US $34T debt.

How the US economy is different today from 1930s and becoming increasing so due to technological change, financialization, and other forces. Why 21st century US fiscal and monetary policies are increasingly inefficient, ineffective and exacerbating the deficits, US debt, and running up unsustainable interest payments on the debt. Income and Wealth inequality thresholds for the 1% in the US economy today. Challenges faced for the future hegemony of the US empire-not just China, not even BRICS, but entire global South. Role of US $ and other institutions. The new alternative global financial structure coming. Why the US/NATO are losing (have already lost) the Ukraine war. (Dr. Rasmus announces further discussion of these trends is available on his blog, jackrasmus.com, in the Youtube file of the 2 hr. interview he gave this week to the Freethinkers Forum).

Dr. Jack Rasmus discusses the decline of American Empire which has suffered a serious financial blow and militarily is in retreat. He gives his view on the Ukraine War and the March 22nd terror attack in Russia and believes we will continue to see escalation. The dollar is the linchpin of the global empire and it continues to be used less as we see the acceleration of BRICS as an antipole. Decline will be protracted, it's a process. The elites or the supranational financial capitalists/imperialists seek to continue maintaining and amassing global wealth. EU is done economically. The Pentagon is planning for war with China, but not before 2030. The empire isn't going away quietly. The propaganda and censorship machine of the one-party system will intensify as our current neoliberal regime cannot continue without further restricting democracy. Watch On BitChute / Brighteon / Rokfin / Rumble / Substack Geopolitics & Empire · Jack Rasmus: US Empire Isn't Going Quietly, China War, Restricting Democracy, & BRICS Antipole #413 *Support Geopolitics & Empire! Become a Member https://geopoliticsandempire.substack.comDonate https://geopoliticsandempire.com/donationsConsult https://geopoliticsandempire.com/consultation **Visit Our Affiliates & Sponsors! Above Phone https://abovephone.com/?above=geopoliticseasyDNS (use code GEOPOLITICS for 15% off!) https://easydns.comEscape The Technocracy course (15% discount using link) https://escapethetechnocracy.com/geopoliticsPassVult https://passvult.comSociatates Civis (CitizenHR, CitizenIT, CitizenPL) https://societates-civis.comWise Wolf Gold https://www.wolfpack.gold/?ref=geopolitics Websites Jack Rasmus Website https://jackrasmus.com X https://twitter.com/drjackrasmus Kyklos Productions http://www.kyklosproductions.com About Dr. Jack Rasmus Dr. Jack Rasmus, Ph.D Political Economy, teaches economics at St. Mary's College in California. He is the author and producer of the various nonfiction and fictional workers, including the books The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy From Reagan to Bush, Clarity Press, October 2019; Alexander Hamilton & The Origins of the Fed, Lexington books, March 2019; Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression, Clarity Press, August 2018; Looting Greece: A New Financial Imperialism Emerges, Clarity Press, Sept. 2016; Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy, Clarity Press, January 2016;  ‘Obama's Economy: Recovery for the Few‘, Pluto Press, 2012, ‘Epic Recession: Prelude to Global Depression‘, Pluto Press, 2010, and ‘The War at Home: The Corporate Offensive from Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush‘, Kyklosproductions, 2006. He has written and produced several stage plays, including ‘Fire on Pier 32‘ and ‘1934‘. Jack is the host of the weekly radio show, Alternative Visions, on the Progressive Radio Network, and a journalist writing on economic, political and labor issues for various magazines, including  European Financial Review, World Financial Review, World Review of Political Economy, ‘Z‘ magazine, and others. Before his current roles as author, journalist and radio host, Jack was an economist and market analyst for several global companies for 18 years and, for more than a decade, a local union president, vice-president, contract negotiator, and organizer for several labor unions, including the UAW, CWA, SEIU, and HERE. Jack's website is www.kyklosproductions.com where his published articles, radio-tv interviews, plays and book reviews are available for download. He blogs at jackrasmus.com, where weekly commentaries on US and global economic matters are available. His twitter handle is @drjackrasmus. Jack is the owner and principal of Kyklos Productions LLC, which produces stage plays, books, and public presentations. Jack is also available for keynote and other speaking events on various economic and political topics.

 Latest on evidence of Moscow's Mall Terrorist attack. Pros & Cons of evidence to date Ukraine sources' involvement. Putin's dire warning re. F-16s. Is Macron's threat to send troops suspended? Will Europe re-arm and create its own defense industry? Euro economy stagnating vs. USA economy modest growth; Why is USA GDP positive in 2024? US recent Inflation statistics. Is the US Treasuries market growing unstable with $23T bonds issued in 2023? Janet Yellen in China and future of the US dollar.

Today's show reviews 3 important speeches of the past week: by Putin, France's president Macron, and US Senator, Chuck Shumer. Speeches related to the US 3 wars in progress: Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, and Yemen. The Macron speech, an interview, reflected his retreat from the threat to send French-NATO (along with Baltics & Czech) to Ukraine. Deeper, it reflects chaos within EU/NATO as what strategy to implement now that Russia is defeating Ukraine and Trump-US may leave Europe holding the Ukraine war bag. Putin's reply to Macron was if he (Macron) says there's no longer any ‘red lines', then Russia has none as well, including use of nuclear arms if Russia's existence is threatened. Putin repeated his oblique suggestion again that the ‘west' may take western Ukraine, which never was part of the Slavic homeland. Third speech by Shumer ‘warned' Netanyahu was ‘out of control' and elections should take place in Israel, clearly a message from Biden. All 3 US wars (proxy or direct as in Yemen) all going poorly. Show concludes with another ‘3s': 3 economic reports in the US (CPI, PPI, and Retail sales) all showing a chronic inflation and emerging real economy slowdown developing.

Following initial comments on the Federal Reserve's just issued Monetary Report's warning about bank assets declining in value, this week's show focuses on the topic of how US Presidents become multimillionaires after leaving office. Corruption by politicians promises to be a major campaign theme on both sides in the election this year. Republicans and Democrats are pushing their stories: Trump's tax avoidance & Biden's kickbacks through his son, Hunter Biden's connections with oligarchs in Ukraine since 2016. (On that latter, the show asks questions about the recent arrest and  ‘indefinite detainment' of Alex Smirnov, the long time FBI informant who broke the news of the Hunter bribes by Ukrainian oligarchs). The show then identifies the various means by which US presidents typically become 7-figure multimillionaires after they leave office, citing examples from Reagan to Obama. The show concludes with some updates on the Ukraine war, including the EU's plan to issue Euro-wide bonds to raise $54B for Ukraine and why it may not fly.

Today's show is dedicated to a discussion of the current state of the War in Ukraine. The theme is an analysis of the military action and strategies of both sides since the February 2022 start of the war, using the benchmark of the Principles of War famously proposed by Von Clausewitz. Examined are the first Russian offensive of 2022 followed by the Ukrainian offensive later that year. Then the disastrous second Ukrainian offensive of fall 2023 that crashed on the rocks of Russia's 2023 Defense in depth. What's happened after fall 2023 to the present, as Russia's second offensive now, in February 2024, appears to be rolling out in the east, with even bigger offensives emerging in the north and south. How do the Principles of War explain the seesaw military actions of the first two years of the war. The show ends discussing the new political strategies of NATO/US, Russia and Ukraine now in development as well.  (For a published print version of the topics of today's show go to: https://jackrasmus.com/2024/02/26/ukraine-war-and-the-ghost-of-clausewitz/

 Today's show looks at the important key economies of the world as a growing number begin to slip into recession: new data shows Japan's economy has been contracting the past six months. Germany has entered recession. So too has the UK. The Eurozone economy as a whole is stagnant. Global manufacturing has been contracting for some months among the G7 economies. Meanwhile China faces growing problems in its property (construction) sector and with emerging deflation in consumer goods prices as producer prices also continue to fall for the past 16 months.  Rasmus notes China home sales are now 1/6 of their peak at end of 2021 and then explains why deflation is even more serious than inflation. In the US, retail sales have turned negative, manufacturing is stagnant, and housing remains down 40% from its prior peak. At the same time both consumer and producer prices have started to rise once again. Can the US economy reach a ‘soft landing' when the rest of the world key economies are slowing or in recession? (Next Week: Ukraine War military and political analysis as we enter 3rd year of war Feb. 25, 2024. Why a larger Russian offensive is imminent)