BFBS Radio Sitrep

The multibillion-pound deal to deliver nuclear powered submarines for the UK and Australia is facing questions just four years into the decades long plan. In the UK there are amber and red warnings for building the boats and propulsion systems, for its part the US is struggling to build enough Virginia class subs, and Australia faces a monumental challenge to be ready for its first nuclear vessels. So will the Royal Navy be asked to do more in the Pacific for longer, while also having to wait for gaps in its submarine capability to be filled? Kate and Mike are joined by former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe and senior defence researcher Sophia Gaston to assess the risks, the potential consequences, and how they could be avoided or at least mitigated.

Mike and Sian talk to Bernard Cornwell, creator of Napoleonic Wars Rifleman Richard Sharpe and Uhtred, the unforgettable hero of the Last Kingdom series. Bernard tells Sitrep about the 25th Sharpe novel, Sharpe's Storm, his admiration for today's armed forces and why he wouldn't want to write about any modern day conflicts. He also reveals he's writing a new book about Uhtred and lifts the lid on whether his latest book is the final ever Sharpe novel.(This podcast contains some strong language)

Three and a half years into Ukraine's fight for survival against Russia, it has offered to freeze the front lines in return for peace talks. But Russia's not biting, so Sitrep explains where those front lines are right now and where the military momentum is pressing hardest, to understand where the war might go next as winter approaches.Ukrainian journalist Roman Pahulych shares insights from his time with troops close to the front lines while John Foreman, former Defence Attaché to Kyiv, explains how new sanctions could still bite at Moscow's military capabilities.

The blueprint for the UK's Armed Forces depends on data from every military sensor being available to every person who needs it.Whether the information comes from the battlefield, space, or cyberspace, and whether it's required at the front-line, PJHQ, in a cockpit or deep in the ocean.The Digital Targeting Web is meant to be up and running in the next couple of years, but how will it work and what will it mean for troops at the sharp end?Also on Sitrep what difference could US Tomahawk cruise missiles make to Ukraine, as President Trump hints he might be prepared to supply “the Daddy of missiles”?And as the US Navy celebrates its 250th birthday a Royal Navy veteran, who spent two years on exchange, tells us what makes the American maritime force tick.

The government has promised thousands of drones will make the armed forces stronger and safer, but is refusing to say how many of them it's ordered over the last year.Professor Michael Clarke analyses the numbers that are available and explains why Ukraine shouldn't be treated as a template for the future, even though drones are here to stay.Sitrep also talks to the new Veterans & Defence People Minister, Louise Sandher-Jones, about how she plans to tackle accommodation and recruitment problems from her own experience of service.And Brigadier Ben Barry tells us about joining the dots of his career for his new book, chronicling the rise and fall of the army over the last 50 years.

After a 37 year career in the Army Brigadier Ben Barry became one of the UK's most respected land warfare researchers and analysts.Now he's drawn together his experiences in and out of uniform to write a new history of the British Army over the last half century.It tells the stories not just of the major operations and battles but also big exercises, and plans which came to nothing.He tells Kate Gerbeau how it helped him join the dots to understand not only the successes and failures of given moments, but to see the whole arc and how that could help the Army rise again to face the next 50 years.

As well as condemning “fat” generals and “woke” policies US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, has told America's top officers they must end a ‘poisonous culture of risk aversion'.Sitrep separates the warfighting logic from the culture-war politics and assesses whether UK defence could benefit from being prepared to take greater risks.We also examine the cost of silence for special forces, and explain how their bond of secrecy could stand in the way of getting mental health help.And as the largest collection of Victoria Crosses is taken off display, to make way for other museum exhibits, retired Major General Tim Cross and historian Lucy Betteridge-Dyson discuss how best preserve the stories of gallantry behind these medals.

The Foreign Secretary says we will “confront” Russian planes after repeated invasions of NATO airspace. Donald Trump says they should be shot down.Sitrep talks to former RAF pilot Air Marshal Greg Bagwell about how intercepts are carried out, the options for pilots, and the risks involved.Kate and Mike also talk to Keir Giles, who advises governments on Moscow's military mindset, about what it hoped to achieve with drones over Poland, and fighter jets in Estonian airspace.And after President Trump's big U-turn any hope of Ukraine peace talks appears to be over, so Mike explains what both sides are planning for the next phase of the war.

RAF Typhoons join an air defence operation following Russian incursions into Polish and Romanian airspace. They'll work with allied forces, including France, and Germany, helping to defend the eastern flank as part of Nato's Eastern Sentry. Sitrep digs deep with Forces News reporter Simon Newton.Also President Trump's state visit to the UK is breaking military ceremonial records. Sitrep talks to General Sir Nick Parker, former deputy commander of ISAF, about how intertwined UK forces are with US ones.And as world events are brought directly to our mobile devices Sitrep speaks to the author of a book looking at how the military must adapt to fighting wars with the smartphone.Kate Gerbeau presents, with expert analysis from Dr Karin von Hippel.

The new Chief of Defence Staff has told defence industry they need to “step up” and do more to make Britain's Armed Forces ready for warfighting.Sitrep is at one of the world's largest defence equipment exhibitions to see the latest military technology, and assess the role of defence firms in deterring or winning a war.Ministers want help ending “stupid rules”, top brass want kit quicker, and shareholders want their returns. Can they all be delivered as one?Retired Major General Neil Sexton and Thales Chief Technology officer Mike Sewart join Kate and Mike to explain what changes have already happened, and what's still needed.

China's released 80,000 doves at the end of its 80th anniversary victory day parade, but the messaging of military might was far louder than appeals for peace.Professor Michael Clarke and defence analyst Dr James Bosbotinis explain what new hardware Beijing chose to show off, what the hypersonic missiles and uncrewed jets mean for its military capability, and the significance of who was (and who wasn't) in the VIP seats.The Northern Ireland Secretary says Britain and Ireland are “close” to agreeing a new plan for the legacy of the troubles. But what will it mean for veterans of Northern Ireland?And what was once called the final-frontier is now expected to be the first-frontline for future wars. Sitrep explains the rapid weaponisation of space.

Oslo is spending £10bn to equip itself with five Type 26 frigates – a big vote of confidence in these submarine hunters already being built for the Royal Navy.But it will also mean the already-stretched timeline to deliver the Navy's eight new frigates becomes even longer.Former Director of Navy Acquisition, Commodore Steve Prest, explains what cutting edge capabilities of the Type 26 that persuaded Norway to buy British, how the delays might impact Britain's maritime capability, and why despite that he thinks it's still good news for the Royal Navy.

Sitrep analyses open-source intelligence which shows an uptick in secretive surveillance flights, by the UK, US and Russia, in the High North and over the Baltic. Defence Analyst and former infantry officer Ed Arnold explains the possibilities behind the activity, and we hear first hand from NATO's Arctic Ocean patrols. Could peat-bogs be used as tank-traps to help protect Eastern Europe from Russian invasion? We hear from Estonia where they're looking at potential spin-off benefits from their plan to tackle climate change. And BBC weather forecaster Simon King draws on his RAF experience to explain the science of weather manipulation, and whether militaries could ever hope to use it to their advantage.

Sitrep digs deep into the implications for the British military of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. The Defence Secretary has laid out Britain's preparedness to put boots on the ground and provide reassurance at sea and in the air. So this time on Sitrep – how does Britain plan for that moment, and what's its part in guaranteeing Ukraine's future security? We hear from former Chief of the Defence Staff Field Marshal Lord Richards and Former Army intelligence officer and military planner, Philip Ingram. And ‘battlefield robotics' – what's already out there giving soldiers an edge? And what are the dangers? Dr Simona Soare, Professor in Strategy and Technology at Lancaster University, joins the show. Kate Gerbeau presents, with expert analysis from Professor Michael Clarke.

80 years ago General Bill Slim accepted the surrender of Japan, marking the end of World War Two, after leading the 14th Army to victory in Burma.He is regarded by many as Britain's greatest general, but how did he achieve what others believed to be impossible?A veteran tells Sitrep what made the Burma campaign so hard and why General Slim was so well regarded, while Viscount Mark Slim gives us a rare tour of the artefacts which reveal his grandfather's place in history.Military historians Dr Robert Lyman and Phil Craig join Professor Michael Clarke and Kate Gerbeau to explain how Slim's prioritisation of his troops' wellbeing and focus on his enemy's weak points made a winning formula which still underpins British military doctrine.

The UK's 2025 Carrier Strike Group has sailed to the other side of the world, and is halfway through that 8 month mission. But what's it all for? Sitrep explains what the military drills along the way will have given the 4,000 servicemen and women taking part, and why the aircraft carrier's role hosting defence and trade talks in Japan still matters. The Royal Navy can't do big global deployments without the support from the Royal Fleet Auxilliary. But with yet another RFA ship forced out of service, former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe tells us why he thinks that logistic capability is at crisis point. And in our ongoing exploration of transformative technologies, Sitrep explains directed energy weapons including lasers and radio beams could soon be in service with Britain's Armed Forces.

The UK, France, and Canada are upping the pressure on Israel for a ceasefire, by talking about recognising a Palestinian state. Even Donald Trump has told Israel it has to “do it a different way” because of “real starvation”.But will this diplomatic pressure make any difference? Professor Michael Clarke and Middle East expert Dr Burcu Ozcelik consider whether cutting military aid might be more effective and assess the impact of Arab League calls for Hamas to disarm.Sitrep also speaks to British veteran Major Andrew Fox, about what he's just seen in Gaza as an invited observer of the Israeli/American aid distribution programme.And how brain-sensors, eye implants, and robot exoskeletons could transform not just future military operations but military personnel too.

Britain and France say they're ready to lead a multinational Ukraine Support Force, in the event of a ceasefire, with a British led two-star HQ in Kyiv and Command and Control from London or Paris.They promise air and sea policing, and logistic support on the ground. Senior RUSI researcher and former infantry officer Ed Arnold explains the thinking, and the big gaps that need to be filled.Sitrep examines the evidence that suggests American nuclear bombs have just been moved to the UK for the first time in nearly two decades, and asks whether it might just be a bluff.And one of NATO's top research scientists tells us how quantum computing could revolutionise military capability, while it threatens to make some current tech useless.

After months of ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine to do a peace deal, Donald Trump's now supplying arms to them, and sending the bill to the rest of NATO.But can weapons worth billions turn the tide, maybe change President Putin's calculus, or will they just drag out a slow-motion defeat? The military options are explained by former defence attaché John Foreman and Professor Michael Clarke.What's motivated scores of British veterans to fight in Ukraine, and how does it compare to their time in British uniform? Colin Freeman tells us about his new book “The Mad and The Brave – The Untold Story of Ukraine's Foreign Legion”And how starlings are teaching scientists to make drones much more lethal, in the first of Sitrep's new series explaining transformative military technologies.

Hundreds of British people answered Ukraine's urgent plea for military volunteers to help it fight back when Russian tanks rolled in.Some were novices, who travelled against UK government advice, while others took experience from the Britain's armed forces.The journalist Colin Freeman has got to know many of them during his work in Ukraine and is sharing the story of the war through their eyes, in detail, for the first time.He tells Kate Gerbeau about his book “The Mad and The Brave – The Untold Story of Ukraine's Foreign Legion”

Sitrep digs deep into homeland defence in the UK. A former National Security adviser lays out the potential threats we face and we ask how prepared are we for a wartime scenario? The Colonel in charge of engaging the Army with the public says the challenge has never been bigger .And how do you persuade the public that defence matters? A former Lance Corporal, now an MP faces that very battle.

War is changing and military strategy no longer delivers victory because of a “short war fallacy”. That warning comes from eminent defence historian Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, who was part of the Iraq inquiry panel.He tells Sitrep why he believes military strategists, and their political masters, need to change their mindset, while Professor Michael Clarke explains how the UK's recent defence review stacks up against that thinking.Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton has been confirmed as the new Chief of Defence Staff. Sitrep assesses what he'll bring to this newly beefed-up role leading the Armed Forces.And Dr Victoria Taylor tells us why German reticence to share the history of the Luftwaffe means we may have failed, until now, to fully understand the Battle of Britain.

The history of the Battle of Britain has been written many times over the last 85 years, but almost always from a British perspective.The award-winning aviation historian Dr Victoria Taylor believes that's led to the Luftwaffe's role being oversimplified, meaning we don't truly understand what happened.She talks to Sitrep editor James Hirst about her new book “Eagle Days”, which takes a fresh look at the story of wartime Germany's air force to understand the psychology which drove its actions.Researched through the letters and diaries of the men who served she tells us why this was not the David vs Goliath fight that is often simply portrayed, and why the idea that “they were just like us” is a troubling misunderstanding.

NATO countries have signed up hundreds of billions of pounds in extra defence spending by 2035, but no one has told us yet what it will be spent on.But Mike explains how the UK's part can already be seen in recent Strategic Defence Review.From F-bombs to F-35s, and the viral ‘Daddy' moment, there was a lot of political theatre at the NATO summit. But a former commander of the UK-led Allied Rapid Reaction Corps tells Sitrep why he's sure that, behind the scenes, serious military figures have a firm grip on getting things done.And Sian Grzeszczyk-Melbourne gives us an insider's take from The Hague, including the importance of seating plans and President Trump turning the tables on a Ukrainian journalist.

The UK has around 100 square miles of sovereign territory in Cyprus, home to more than 3000 Defence personnel, and it is a lynchpin of British military operations around the world.On the doorstep of the Middle East it's used from everything from bombing missions, to intelligence gathering and decompression for troops returning from operations.Sitrep talks to Colonel Vicky Reid about her key role as the UK Defence Adviser in Cyprus, responsible not only for helping deliver missions such as civilian evacuations, but also keeping everything running smoothly by maintaining the working relationship with the government of Cyprus[This interview was recorded before the war between Israel and Iran, when extra RAF jets were deployed to Cypus]

RAF planes have been moved to the Middle East for ‘contingency support', but what could those contingencies end up being?Professor Michael Clarke maps out the British military presence in the region, which could come under threat from Iran in a worst-case scenario.Lord Peter Ricketts, who led many a crisis meeting as National Security Adviser, explains how and why the UK is making military plans even as it calls for de-escalation.And a former Deputy Commander of RAF Operations, Air Marshal Greg Bagwell, tells us how those British aircraft could be used, and in what situations that might happen.

The head of NATO issues his starkest warning yet about Russia's readiness for war. We speak to Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the defence think-tank RUSI and a former infantry officer.In Ukraine, drone warfare is reaching ever-more sophisticated levels. We look at how this single weapon is changing warfare with Dr. Ulrike Franke, a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.And the Royal Navy's Carrier Strike Group makes its way through the Red Sea – what next for this projection of UK military power? We get the thoughts of Commodore Steve Prest who was the Commander Weapon Engineer on Britain's other carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth. He was also part of the top-level team that brought the QE out of build and into sea trials.

It's the new defence masterplan for the next decade and beyond, but what does the Strategic Defence Review mean for the Armed Forces?The lead military author of the review, General Sir Richard Barrons, joins a special live edition of Sitrep to explain the plan and answer your questions about how it should work.Former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe adds his insights to the discussion with Kate Gerbeau and Professor Michael Clarke.The whole team will break down the big questions including the threats we face, how the job of the Armed Forces could change, and when the PM's target of warfighting readiness can be met.

As the Royal Navy unveils HMS Venturer to the public for the first time – we ask, what hope does the first Inspiration Class Frigate offer a surface fleet short on ships and sailors?Sitrep's reporter David Sivills-McCann has all the answers - he witnessed the new type 31 frigate rolling out of the build hall in Rosyth. The former second sea lord and Babcock chief executive of marine Sir Nick Hine says the Royal Navy will love her.We'll also look at the German Chancellor's announcement that restrictions are lifted on long range Western weapons supplied to Ukraine – and that his country will help them make their own. It's been a contentious issue for well over a year now - both before and after ATACMs and Storm Shadows were supplied to Ukraine. Sitrep's Ukraine reporter Simon Newton tells us how significant this move is.And the story of the secret unit set up in World War 2, to deceive, mis-inform and, on occasion, come up with believable lies. Terry Stiastny's new book examines the people and the tactics used by the Political Warfare Executive whose job it was to broadcast fake news to the occupied countries in World War 2.

Keir Starmer says it puts Britain back on the world stage. Some critics claim it could drag Britain into some kind of “EU army”.Sitrep explains what is, and isn't, included in the new 62-point defence partnership agreement, and what it might mean for our Armed Forces.Amid intense scrutiny of past actions by UK Special Forces, and a former SAS commander's warning about the “complete absence of a workable legal framework”, how can they be better held to public account while maintaining vital secrecy in their job to keep us safe?And a reshuffle of Britain's top brass is underway. Mike talks us through the names in the frame, what they could bring to the jobs, and the challenges they'll face.

New satellite images show Russia's building up its military presence on the border of Finland, as it reorganises and concentrates its military closer to NATO neighbours.But is this preparation for war within years, or trying to maintain “peace through fear”? Mike explains what Russia's doing with its forces, and Finnish OSINT analyst Emil Kastehelmi tells us what he's found in the satellite images.Sitrep also talks to the Forces Complaints Ombudsman who tells us why, despite ruling the complaints system still isn't efficient, effective or fair, she believes servicemen and women can have confidence in it.And former RAF pilot Scottie Bateman reveals some luxury secrets from his flights on the US President's plane, Air Force One, and just what goes into making this flying fortress.

For 9 years in a row the service complaints system has been deemed to not be efficient, effective or fair by the watchdog that oversees it.But despite that, and some of the high-profile stories of past failures, the Ombudsman says there's been significant progress and that planned changes can deliver more improvements.Sitrep talks at length to Mariette Hughes about why delays don't just affect the people who do complain, what still needs to be done, and whether servicemen and women can have confidence in a system which isn't efficient, effective or fair.

Britain and its allies fought Nazi Germany for a gruelling four and a half years in all, but once allied ground troops landed in Europe, creating the Western Front, they completed the victory in just eleven months.Kate and Mike are joined by Dr Meghan Kellegher from the RAF Museum to explain the strategy which led to victory, and what the allies got wrong as well as right.VE Day wasn't the end of World War Two. Military historian Lucy Betteridge-Dyson tells us how thousands of British troops, including her grandfather, still faced months of fierce fighting in Burma, and were still deployed two years later.And after Ukrainian troops joined UK commemorations of VE day, we ask whether the conflicts raging today could become the catalyst for a third global war, and how that risk can be minimised.

Pakistan and India have already fought two wars over disputed Kashmir, now after a terror attack that killed 26 tourists spiralling tensions have brought warnings another war could be imminent.South Asia expert Dr Walter Ladwig tells us why some kind of clash seems inevitable, as Sitrep compares military capabilities and past conflicts to explain who's most likely to come out on top.The RAF has launched against Houthi militants in Yemen for the first time in nearly a year. So why now? Professor Michael Clarke explains all.And could AI predict the time and place of the world's next big conflict? Defence AI expert Anna Knack and former CIA analyst Dr. Nandita Balakrishnan tell us how and when it could become reality.

Former Conservative MP Jack Lopresti joined Ukraine's foreign legion, in November 2024, to share his insights and experience of procurement and diplomacy.Those skills have become all the more important since the diplomatic earthquakes of Donald Trump's presidency, including a temporary halt to American weapons, ammunition and intelligence for Ukraine.Mr Lopresti tells Sitrep about the impact on the military fight, the effect on morale, and why he still firmly believes Ukraine is not losing.

Drones have come of age in Ukraine, ruling the battlefield and overtaking artillery as the leading cause of casualties.Kate and Mike are joined by RAF veteran Dr Keith Dear to explain how small devices once designed for consumers are now not only flying spies, but also lethal weapons that have radically changed the way land battles are fought.Ukrainian drone-experts are reported to be training British troops as part of Operation Interflex. So what can we learn from their experiences, and can we be sure that drones will still be as relevant in the next war?And the founder of SYOS aerospace, which will supply £30m worth of drones to Ukraine, explains how drone-boat technology is evolving and has helped Ukraine neutralise Russia's black sea fleet.

The death and destruction in Ukraine has only intensified in the two months since Donald Trump unilaterally announced peace talks, and the one month since Ukraine offered a 30-day ceasefire.With diplomacy having delivered nothing so far Sitrep explains how the war has played out in that time, who has the battlefield momentum, and the potential paths ahead.Equipment is key to Ukraine's chances but a leaked German assessment says high-end tanks, like the Leopard 2, sometimes cause problems rather than providing capability.Former British tank-commander Hamish de Bretton-Gordon explains why, what lessons the UK should take from this, and which tank he'd want to be in if he were in Ukraine.

The Royal Navy's newest aircraft carrier will be accompanied by more than 3000 servicemen and women, up to 24 RAF fighter jets, four British ships and four more from allies to sail as a carrier strike group halfway round the world.But it is a considerably more dangerous world than four years ago when a British carrier group last sailed to the Indo-Pacific.Retired Commodore Steve Prest tells us what threats the vessels could face in the Red Sea and the capabilities they have to protect themselves, and Professor Michael Clarke explains why the UK wants to show off its military might as far away as Australia when a land war is raging in Europe.This first global operational deployment for HMS Prince of Wales will also be the first time a UK carrier has sailed with a full complement of British F35's, and Claire Sadler explains another first – using drones to fly resupply missions between ships.

The world's biggest military powers are all jockeying for position in and around the Arctic, starkly illustrated by Donald Trump's demands for the US to buy Greenland even though it's already NATO territory.Sitrep explains the melting pot of strategic positioning, potential trade routes, and natural resources that are driving shows of military force, including by the UK, in the High North.Arctic expert Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe tells us the US can already put as many military bases as it wants in Greenland, but that the race for minerals also really matters for military power. And Professor Michael Clarke reveals the weapon of choice for Canadian troops in the Arctic, to defend themselves from polar bears.

The head of NATO says nothing can replace the US nuclear umbrella as the ultimate guarantee of our security, and “Europe needs to know Uncle Sam still has our back”But amid doubts about US commitment there is talk creating a comprehensive European nuclear capability without American-owned weapons. Could the UK and France really provide a Europe only deterrent? And if so, should they?Sitrep compares our capabilities with the rest of the world and explains the complex thinking behind history's bluntest and most powerful weapons.Former NATO arms-control director William Alberque tells us why his thinking today is different, and Professor Michael Clarke explains why he has, very reluctantly, changed his view on Britain's nuclear deterrent.

The head of the Army has spoken of his “anger and shame” after more than a thousand women shared stories of harassment, bullying and much worse while they served their country.Another set of changes have been announced to try to stop unacceptable behaviours, including a tri-service unit to take over the most serious complaints from the chain of command. But is it enough?Sitrep explains the detail of the changes and talks to two veterans, who are also leading advocates for women in the forces.Former Conservative MP Sarah Atherton and Commodore Steve Prest share their own experiences to assess the scale and causes of unacceptable behaviours, and how culture can be changed to prevent bullying, harassment and discrimination.

Sitrep assesses how the 30-day ceasefire, offered by Ukraine, could work in reality. Would troops just stay in place and dig in, or might they have to pull back from a buffer zone?It is a tactical trade-off by Kyiv which gives it back US military aid and intelligence, and forces Russia onto the diplomatic back foot.Professor Michael Clarke explains which side has most to gain from a pause to rest and re-equip while former head of the Army, General Lord Dannatt, shares lessons from Bosnia suggesting even the most junior soldiers will have to fully understand the terms of any deal.Kate and Mike also talk to former UK National Security Adviser Lord Peter Ricketts to assess the UK's role in getting to this point, and the possibility of British troops being part of any longer-term peace plan.

The highest command in the world's most powerful military alliance has always been held by a top American officer, almost always with a British deputy.But as the Trump administration tells Europe the US will do less, and we've got to do much more for our own defence, should the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) become a European job?Kate Gerbeau talks to General Philip Breedlove, who was SACEUR from 2013-2016, about what the role involves, how much influence it wields, and how much difference the change could make.He also reveals how during Russia's first invasion of Ukraine (2014) he used his other role, as a US commander, to deliver action that had been resisted from within the alliance.

Whatever you think of how President Trump said it to President Zelensky, the fact is Ukraine is not in good position. That was made worse by the freezing of US military aid, and crucial moment-by-moment intelligence.Sitrep explains how that has left Ukraine “blindfolded with one hand tied behind its back” and assesses its options to stay in the fight or even strengthen its position for any talks.Former UK military attaché to Ukraine John Foreman tells us the country's ground capability still remains a key point of leverage, and Sitrep's Simon Newton details how and when the sudden stop to US hardware flows will bite.