BFBS Radio Sitrep

As the Royal Navy unveils HMS Venturer to the public for the first time – we ask, what hope does the first Inspiration Class Frigate offer a surface fleet short on ships and sailors?Sitrep's reporter David Sivills-McCann has all the answers - he witnessed the new type 31 frigate rolling out of the build hall in Rosyth. The former second sea lord and Babcock chief executive of marine Sir Nick Hine says the Royal Navy will love her.We'll also look at the German Chancellor's announcement that restrictions are lifted on long range Western weapons supplied to Ukraine – and that his country will help them make their own. It's been a contentious issue for well over a year now - both before and after ATACMs and Storm Shadows were supplied to Ukraine. Sitrep's Ukraine reporter Simon Newton tells us how significant this move is.And the story of the secret unit set up in World War 2, to deceive, mis-inform and, on occasion, come up with believable lies. Terry Stiastny's new book examines the people and the tactics used by the Political Warfare Executive whose job it was to broadcast fake news to the occupied countries in World War 2.

Keir Starmer says it puts Britain back on the world stage. Some critics claim it could drag Britain into some kind of “EU army”.Sitrep explains what is, and isn't, included in the new 62-point defence partnership agreement, and what it might mean for our Armed Forces.Amid intense scrutiny of past actions by UK Special Forces, and a former SAS commander's warning about the “complete absence of a workable legal framework”, how can they be better held to public account while maintaining vital secrecy in their job to keep us safe?And a reshuffle of Britain's top brass is underway. Mike talks us through the names in the frame, what they could bring to the jobs, and the challenges they'll face.

New satellite images show Russia's building up its military presence on the border of Finland, as it reorganises and concentrates its military closer to NATO neighbours.But is this preparation for war within years, or trying to maintain “peace through fear”? Mike explains what Russia's doing with its forces, and Finnish OSINT analyst Emil Kastehelmi tells us what he's found in the satellite images.Sitrep also talks to the Forces Complaints Ombudsman who tells us why, despite ruling the complaints system still isn't efficient, effective or fair, she believes servicemen and women can have confidence in it.And former RAF pilot Scottie Bateman reveals some luxury secrets from his flights on the US President's plane, Air Force One, and just what goes into making this flying fortress.

For 9 years in a row the service complaints system has been deemed to not be efficient, effective or fair by the watchdog that oversees it.But despite that, and some of the high-profile stories of past failures, the Ombudsman says there's been significant progress and that planned changes can deliver more improvements.Sitrep talks at length to Mariette Hughes about why delays don't just affect the people who do complain, what still needs to be done, and whether servicemen and women can have confidence in a system which isn't efficient, effective or fair.

Britain and its allies fought Nazi Germany for a gruelling four and a half years in all, but once allied ground troops landed in Europe, creating the Western Front, they completed the victory in just eleven months.Kate and Mike are joined by Dr Meghan Kellegher from the RAF Museum to explain the strategy which led to victory, and what the allies got wrong as well as right.VE Day wasn't the end of World War Two. Military historian Lucy Betteridge-Dyson tells us how thousands of British troops, including her grandfather, still faced months of fierce fighting in Burma, and were still deployed two years later.And after Ukrainian troops joined UK commemorations of VE day, we ask whether the conflicts raging today could become the catalyst for a third global war, and how that risk can be minimised.

Pakistan and India have already fought two wars over disputed Kashmir, now after a terror attack that killed 26 tourists spiralling tensions have brought warnings another war could be imminent.South Asia expert Dr Walter Ladwig tells us why some kind of clash seems inevitable, as Sitrep compares military capabilities and past conflicts to explain who's most likely to come out on top.The RAF has launched against Houthi militants in Yemen for the first time in nearly a year. So why now? Professor Michael Clarke explains all.And could AI predict the time and place of the world's next big conflict? Defence AI expert Anna Knack and former CIA analyst Dr. Nandita Balakrishnan tell us how and when it could become reality.

Former Conservative MP Jack Lopresti joined Ukraine's foreign legion, in November 2024, to share his insights and experience of procurement and diplomacy.Those skills have become all the more important since the diplomatic earthquakes of Donald Trump's presidency, including a temporary halt to American weapons, ammunition and intelligence for Ukraine.Mr Lopresti tells Sitrep about the impact on the military fight, the effect on morale, and why he still firmly believes Ukraine is not losing.

Drones have come of age in Ukraine, ruling the battlefield and overtaking artillery as the leading cause of casualties.Kate and Mike are joined by RAF veteran Dr Keith Dear to explain how small devices once designed for consumers are now not only flying spies, but also lethal weapons that have radically changed the way land battles are fought.Ukrainian drone-experts are reported to be training British troops as part of Operation Interflex. So what can we learn from their experiences, and can we be sure that drones will still be as relevant in the next war?And the founder of SYOS aerospace, which will supply £30m worth of drones to Ukraine, explains how drone-boat technology is evolving and has helped Ukraine neutralise Russia's black sea fleet.

The death and destruction in Ukraine has only intensified in the two months since Donald Trump unilaterally announced peace talks, and the one month since Ukraine offered a 30-day ceasefire.With diplomacy having delivered nothing so far Sitrep explains how the war has played out in that time, who has the battlefield momentum, and the potential paths ahead.Equipment is key to Ukraine's chances but a leaked German assessment says high-end tanks, like the Leopard 2, sometimes cause problems rather than providing capability.Former British tank-commander Hamish de Bretton-Gordon explains why, what lessons the UK should take from this, and which tank he'd want to be in if he were in Ukraine.

The Royal Navy's newest aircraft carrier will be accompanied by more than 3000 servicemen and women, up to 24 RAF fighter jets, four British ships and four more from allies to sail as a carrier strike group halfway round the world.But it is a considerably more dangerous world than four years ago when a British carrier group last sailed to the Indo-Pacific.Retired Commodore Steve Prest tells us what threats the vessels could face in the Red Sea and the capabilities they have to protect themselves, and Professor Michael Clarke explains why the UK wants to show off its military might as far away as Australia when a land war is raging in Europe.This first global operational deployment for HMS Prince of Wales will also be the first time a UK carrier has sailed with a full complement of British F35's, and Claire Sadler explains another first – using drones to fly resupply missions between ships.

The world's biggest military powers are all jockeying for position in and around the Arctic, starkly illustrated by Donald Trump's demands for the US to buy Greenland even though it's already NATO territory.Sitrep explains the melting pot of strategic positioning, potential trade routes, and natural resources that are driving shows of military force, including by the UK, in the High North.Arctic expert Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe tells us the US can already put as many military bases as it wants in Greenland, but that the race for minerals also really matters for military power. And Professor Michael Clarke reveals the weapon of choice for Canadian troops in the Arctic, to defend themselves from polar bears.

The head of NATO says nothing can replace the US nuclear umbrella as the ultimate guarantee of our security, and “Europe needs to know Uncle Sam still has our back”But amid doubts about US commitment there is talk creating a comprehensive European nuclear capability without American-owned weapons. Could the UK and France really provide a Europe only deterrent? And if so, should they?Sitrep compares our capabilities with the rest of the world and explains the complex thinking behind history's bluntest and most powerful weapons.Former NATO arms-control director William Alberque tells us why his thinking today is different, and Professor Michael Clarke explains why he has, very reluctantly, changed his view on Britain's nuclear deterrent.

The head of the Army has spoken of his “anger and shame” after more than a thousand women shared stories of harassment, bullying and much worse while they served their country.Another set of changes have been announced to try to stop unacceptable behaviours, including a tri-service unit to take over the most serious complaints from the chain of command. But is it enough?Sitrep explains the detail of the changes and talks to two veterans, who are also leading advocates for women in the forces.Former Conservative MP Sarah Atherton and Commodore Steve Prest share their own experiences to assess the scale and causes of unacceptable behaviours, and how culture can be changed to prevent bullying, harassment and discrimination.

Sitrep assesses how the 30-day ceasefire, offered by Ukraine, could work in reality. Would troops just stay in place and dig in, or might they have to pull back from a buffer zone?It is a tactical trade-off by Kyiv which gives it back US military aid and intelligence, and forces Russia onto the diplomatic back foot.Professor Michael Clarke explains which side has most to gain from a pause to rest and re-equip while former head of the Army, General Lord Dannatt, shares lessons from Bosnia suggesting even the most junior soldiers will have to fully understand the terms of any deal.Kate and Mike also talk to former UK National Security Adviser Lord Peter Ricketts to assess the UK's role in getting to this point, and the possibility of British troops being part of any longer-term peace plan.

The highest command in the world's most powerful military alliance has always been held by a top American officer, almost always with a British deputy.But as the Trump administration tells Europe the US will do less, and we've got to do much more for our own defence, should the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) become a European job?Kate Gerbeau talks to General Philip Breedlove, who was SACEUR from 2013-2016, about what the role involves, how much influence it wields, and how much difference the change could make.He also reveals how during Russia's first invasion of Ukraine (2014) he used his other role, as a US commander, to deliver action that had been resisted from within the alliance.

Whatever you think of how President Trump said it to President Zelensky, the fact is Ukraine is not in good position. That was made worse by the freezing of US military aid, and crucial moment-by-moment intelligence.Sitrep explains how that has left Ukraine “blindfolded with one hand tied behind its back” and assesses its options to stay in the fight or even strengthen its position for any talks.Former UK military attaché to Ukraine John Foreman tells us the country's ground capability still remains a key point of leverage, and Sitrep's Simon Newton details how and when the sudden stop to US hardware flows will bite.

We now have a deadline for the UK to spend 2.5% of national income on defence and it's much sooner than anyone expected. But cash doesn't just turn into military might.There are many things you could spend it on. People? Hardware? Training? The real question is what you should spend it on, for the right capabilities at the right times.There are urgent priorities to rapidly improve defence of our own doorstep as the US pulls back, but we still need to plan for long term battle-winning edge.Professor Michael Clarke explains why ‘invisible' capabilities will be favoured over heavy metal, while Matthew Savill from RUSI assesses how hard it will be to deliver the Defence Secretary's priority of “arresting the long-term fall in numbers of service personnel”.

In the 1970's and 1980's the UK typically spent 4-5% of its national income on Defence, but what did that money buy and what did our Armed Forces spend their time doing?Kate Gerbeau and Professor Michael Clarke talk to historian Ian J Sanders, host of the Cold War Conversations podcast, for a history lesson on how we deployed our military capability to protect Europe from a Russian led threat.Times may have changed a lot, countries like Poland and Estonia which were part of the enemy bloc back then are now staunch allies who we help defend, but some things stay the same.So Kate, Mike and Ian assess what lessons we should be taking right now from our victory in the Cold War. [You can see more about the work of British forces in the cold war in our series Real Cold War Spies: BRIXMIS - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLeQQkbf45pQM7fhBI5Lv_DvSanxy-bfw0] [You can listen to Ian's podcast Cold War Conversations here - https://coldwarconversations.com/]

Despite the many uncertainties about a possible peace-deal for Ukraine, Britain's Defence Secretary says the detail is being developed for a European led security guarantee.Former head of the Army General Lord Dannatt warns that while the Prime Minister is ready and willing to commit British troops, the Army is willing but not ready.Sitrep assesses how many people and what equipment it might be required, exactly what the role of such a force could be, how long it might be needed for, and what alternatives there are to international ground troops.Plus Professor Michael Clarke explains how the Sir Keir Starmer will try to persuade President Trump to commit a US backstop that would support Ukraine's security from outside its territory.

Donald Trump's tried to take Ukraine's future out of its own hands by opening negotiations with Russia, and telling Kyiv that NATO membership and getting all of its land back are hopeless ambitions.So what should Ukraine do now? Could focussing on the fight still improve its negotiating position, or has it reached its high watermark in the war? Professor Michael Clarke and retired General Sir Richard Shirreff assess the battlefield balance of power.America's Defence Secretary says “stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being primarily focused on Europe”. The UK's stepping up as the US steps back, but how much more will we do to lead from the front? And as some of the world's most powerful defence and security figures gather at the Munich Security Conference Sitrep explains why this private talking shop has become a marketplace for some of the world's most consequential decisions.

Keir Starmer wants a post-brexit reset with the EU, and he thinks it should start with “an ambitious partnership” on defence and security. But would it help our Armed Forces when we already have NATO? Former Army officer Ed Arnold explains how both the EU and NATO could give us more bang-for-our-buck, as well as the potential pitfalls. British troops are showing partnership in action in Estonia on NATO's biggest cold weather exercise, Winter Camp. Sitrep hears from some of those taking part and BFBS reporter David Sivills-McCann explains what it's all about. And 25 years since the ban on gay and bisexual people serving in the Armed Forces was lifted, the Defence Secretary who made the change talks in detail for the first time about whether the government was forced to do it, or really believed it was the right thing.

Donald Trump wants NATO members to spend 5% of their national income on Defence, the UK is years away from meeting half that target. Is 5% a realistic figure, given that we did it back in the cold war, or would that simply be spending money for the sake of it? Mike does some reality checking, and Kate talks to Labour MP Luke Akehurst who says the current UK ambition of 2.5% should “just be the start of the conversation”. One demand from some who want more spent on Defence is better protection from missiles. Claire Sadler explains the options, and how far we can or can't defeat missiles. And after the right-royal row about the renaming of a submarine, from HMS Agincourt to HMS Achilles, we explain who chooses the names of Royal Navy vessels, and how.

The defence secretary John Healey sends a message to Russia's President Putin warning him we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country. It's after a Russian spy ship is spotted for a second time in UK waters. On Sitrep, we discuss the creeping threat of hybrid warfare.Why is the US preparing for potential conflict with China by 2027? Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia, Alessio Patalano, who's also a visiting fellow at the Royal Navy Centre for Strategic Studies, explains the significance of the date.And it's a highbrow, high-tech chance to hear about the latest developments in the machinery of war. Sitrep's Claire Sadler has been at the International Armoured Vehicles conference for Sitrep.

The Ministry Of Defence is given a stark warning that it needs to play catch-up and should learn from Ukraine's use of AI on the battlefield. So what is Ukraine using? What happens if Britain doesn't get a grip? And what could that mean for our troops on the battlefield? Sitrep's Ukraine reporter Simon Newton and Assistant Director of the defence team at Rand Europe, James Black, discuss the Defence Committee report. It's the biggest step up a soldier will make in their Army career - getting their first stripe and promotion to Lance Corporal. So when Sitrep's Sofie Cacoyannis was granted exclusive access to the selection course in Cyprus, it was a unique opportunity to record the highs and the lows of the entire 7 week experience. And what makes a good spy? We delve into the latest declassified documents with instructions on appearance, disguise and how to follow targets.

After a string of attacks against European data and power cables, and undersea pipelines, the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force has activated a new AI powered system to track and monitor suspicious activity from Russian “shadow fleet” ships.But what can the Nordic Warden operation do to stop attacks from happening when something is spotted? Former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe explains why stepping-in is complicated.The Islamic State terror group may have been territorially defeated, but it has not gone away. After the IS inspired terror attack in New Orleans, and amid fears of a possible resurgence in Syria, Sitrep assesses what threat it currently poses.And the figures that show around 10% of servicemen and women are medically non-deployable. Are they really as alarming as some headlines claim? A former Director-General of Army capability puts the numbers in context.

Kim Hughes was a driver in the Army who'd already quit once and was feeling disheartened again.But a moment watching a colleague prepare for a potentially deadly duty in Northern Ireland finally awakened his ambition.He tells James Hirst how that new found drive, a lot of classroom graft, and a childhood fascination with fireworks led to a George Cross for selfless bravery while disarming more than a hundred Taliban bombs in Afghanistan.

Ryan Ramsay spent three years at the helm of a Royal Navy attack submarine, before teaching the next generation of leaders.But he gives big credit to the US Navy, and one particular leader, for helping him reach command after 20 years at sea.Ryan tells James Hirst why a transatlantic exchange was the moment that made him, with insights into leadership styles, the importance of supporting families, and why American submarines are “cool as you like”.

When the RAF opened fighter pilot roles to women Mandy Hickson was one of the first in line.The powers that be told her she was a test-case, and a key flying exam threatened to prove their prediction of failure correct.But a moment of inspired teamwork, cycling with her fellow student pilots, transformed her struggles into a pass with flying colours.Mandy tells Kate Gerbeau how that moment made her a pioneer for women in the RAF, and how it shaped her understanding of how teams really do work.

At the age of 23 Chip Chapman not only went to war for the first time, but also had to lead his platoon into the first fighting of the decisive battle in the Falklands war.When Argentinian forces lost at Goose Green they surrendered and the islands were liberated, but it had been a hard fight that could have gone either way.Chip tells Kate Gerbeau how Goose Green taught him the importance of discipline, cohesion, and always carrying a pistol throughout his 33 years in the Army.

Andrew Fox always knew he wanted more from his Army career. But poor eyesight kept him out of the Army air corps, and a bad luck injury ended any hope of Special Forces selection.He didn't give up though, and his moment came when he took on another of the Armed Forces toughest selections. P-Company to join the Parachute Regiment.Andrew talks to Kate Gerbeau about passing the selection and finally finding a regimental home where he belonged.

Neil Greenberg is a world leading expert, and practitioner, in military mental health.He signed up to the Royal Navy while still in medical school, then travelled the world on ships and submarines, not just attending to crew health but getting stuck into everything else required of an officer to keep a vessel operating successfully.But it could have been very different, had he not heard a radio interview by chance.Professor Greenberg tells Kate Gerbeau how the medic of a luxury liner inspired him to mix healthcare with adventure, all with the aim of making a difference.

Liz McConaghy joined the RAF on her 19th Birthday and flew on Chinooks for seventeen years.She helped save hundreds of lives on MERT rescue missions for dangerously-wounded troops, during her ten tours of Afghanistan.But saving others lives left a big impact on Liz's own, and months after leaving the RAF she attempted to end her life.Liz tells Kate Gerbeau why, the moment she woke up in hospital, she chose to live, how it made her into an author, designer and advocate working to inspire and help others through similar struggles.This podcast includes descriptions of battlefield injuries, and discussion of suicide. Visit bfbs.com/audiencesupport for details of organisations that can offer support and information.

Julian Thompson had already served thirty years in the Royal Marines when a phone call, in the dead of night, would come to define his career.It brought news of an imminent invasion, and orders to lead 3 Commando Brigade more than seven-thousand miles across the Atlantic, in just a matter of days, to liberate the Falkland Islands.He tells Kate Gerbeau how his first reaction to the call was horror at being so unprepared, but that chaos always reigns and victory goes to whoever sorts out the chaos quickest.

Andy McNab faced the IRA in Northern Ireland, served on numerous SAS covert operations around the world, and was captured behind enemy lines in Iraq.But he tells Kate Gerbeau the real moment that made him was reading a Janet & John children's book at the age of 16.It unlocked the Army career which took him away from a life of teenage crime, and eventually led him to becoming a bestselling author of more than 50 books, all thanks to a Sergeant Major who he thought was “the world's oldest soldier”.

Rosie Stone was recording an audio diary at the moment she came under fire on a patrol in Southern Afghanistan.This was her first experience of a combat situation after more than eight years service in the Army.But it became a very different learning experience as she was given shelter and tea by local Afghan women while a gun battle raged behind their compound wall.Rosie shares her recording of that moment with Kate Gerbeau, and explains how that moment shaped her new life as an expert in human security and gender in conflict.

On the 16th of December 2008 HMS Endurance suffered a very sudden and catastrophic flood in the South Atlantic.Tom Sharpe was in temporary command of the Royal Navy ice breaker as her engine room filled in less than half an hour, and she lost power in turbulent seas.Tom tells Kate Gerbeau why he ignored advice from the UK to abandon ship, how he led his crew to save the ship from sinking, and how it gave him confidence to lead without being risk averse.

“Please don't look back, more dangerous times lie ahead which means you need to look forward… so that we are ready if war chooses us”. So says the head of the Army, General Sir Roly Walker, in this special edition of Sitrep explaining what 2025 may bring.Kate Gerbeau and Professor Michael Clarke tackle some of the biggest questions for our defence. Could fighting in Ukraine end, and might British troops be sent as peacekeepers or trainers? Would Russia make a military move against another European country? And will the Defence Review be a revolution or evolution for our Armed ForcesThe Chief of Defence Staff, the heads of the Royal Navy and RAF, and a team of top experts also share their assessments of what's most likely to lie ahead, right around the world.

Sitrep's Simon Newton is back from the frontline of Ukraine's war with Russia. He shares stories from troops who led the push into Kursk, how British Challenger 2 tanks are used (and extremely well hidden), and the challenges of even reaching the frontline.The UK led Joint Expeditionary Force is a British defence success, according to a new study. But the author Ed Arnold joins us to explain why the JEF is facing a use-it-or-lose-it moment that threatens the credibility of the force.And Mike explains how military opportunism led to the downfall of Syria's regime, why Israel has seized the same window of opportunity to launch a third major military campaign, and the West's worries about the Islamic State terror group also seizing the moment.

Two architects of the Strategic Defence Review have lifted the lid on how they're working on the plan for the future of our Armed Forces.But when they tell MP's one aim is to get it “as least wrong as possible” on predicting future conflicts, does that inspire confidence? Kate and Mike are joined by Sitrep's Sian Grzeszczyk Melbourne to analyse what's been revealed, and what is still shrouded in secrecy.Syria's civil war appeared dormant for years, but has suddenly reignited. Last time it led to the UK's Operation Shader against jihadist terrorists, so are we going to have to rethink the ending of that operation?Brigadier Gavin Thompson explains why he and several dozen other British Officers are embedded into Kuwait's armed forces, and gives an insight into their life and work in the small gulf state.

Sitrep talks to the outgoing Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute, Dr. Karin von HippelRUSI has contributed to UK defence & security thinking for almost two centuries, and under Dr. von Hippel's leadership it's help the country face threats ranging from the Covid pandemic to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.Before leading RUSI she was a key figure at the US State Department, as Chief-of-Staff to General John Allen who led the global coalition against the Islamic State terror group.After 9 years at the helm of RUSI, Karin talks to Kate Gerbeau about the many challenges and surprises the world has brought in that time, and what lies ahead.

Drones buzzing airbases and HMS Queen Elizabeth. Undersea cables cut. Mysterious parcel fires at air-freight depots. These have all been described as hybrid, grey-zone, or sub-threshold attacks against the UK and it's allies.But if they are all below the threshold of an act of war, where does that threshold lie?Sitrep explores the use of deniable attacks, from disruption and disinformation to assassination and bomb plots. How do we defend against them, deter enemies from even trying, and stand up to international bullying?Kate Gerbeau and Professor Michael Clarke talk to grey-zone expert Elisabeth Braw, former military intelligence officer Colonel Philip Ingram, and Tan Dhesi MP who chairs the Commons Defence Committee.

From testing whether we're ready for war to checking whether forces families get the support they need, the Commons Defence Committee plays a key role in overseeing our defence.Kate Gerbeau talks to the man chosen by his fellow MP's to chair the committee in this Parliament.Tan Dhesi has a background in maths, management science, and running his own construction business.So what does he bring to this important defence role, why did he want the job, and what does he hope to achieve for the UK's defence and it's service personnel?

BFBS Forces News presents ‘Great British Battle Commanders' hosted by Professor Michael Clarke, Sitrep's defence analyst, assessing the leadership and strategy of Admiral Lord Nelson with Dr Gregory Fremont-Barnes, author of several books on Nelson and his Navy, and senior lecturer in war studies at RMAS. The interview is recorded in Nelson's cabin on HMS Victory in Portsmouth Historic Dockyard.Nelson GlossaryCuthbert Collingwood Admiral and Second in Command at Trafalgar.John Jervis Earl of St Vincent, Admiral and Commander at the Battle of Cape St Vincent.George Towry Captain, involved in the Battle of Cape St Vincent.Thomas Troubridge Captain, involved in the Battle of Cape St Vincent.Ralph Abercromby General, mortally wounded at the Battle of Alexandria in 1801.Pierre-Charles de Villeneuve French Admiral and overall Commander of the Combined Fleet at Trafalgar.Frederico Gravina Spanish Admiral and Second in Command at Trafalgar.

Russia thought it would conquer Ukraine in 10 days, Ukrainian resolve is still preventing that. But after more than a million casualties on both sides, thousands of pieces of military hardware destroyed, will it simply come down to which side can outlast the other? Sitrep's Simon Newton and Hannah King join us from Kyiv to share how the people, and their resolve, are holding up, while Professor Michael Clarke analyses the battlefield picture. If it doesn't come down simply to attrition then what could prove to be a tipping point? Ukraine hopes permission to fire British Storm Shadow and American ATACMS missiles into Russia could be a game changer, while Russia's banking on ratcheting up nuclear rhetoric to discourage western support. Sitrep assesses the effect they could have.