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Townhall Review – April 19, 2025
Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are heading into a week where the data won't be as important as the policy decisions made and about to be made. And we do seem to be seeing a shift in great-power economic fortunes; the US fading while China get up off its knees.Although there are only a few key data releases in New Zealand, Australia will release its monthly inflation indicator for February this week on Wednesday and its monthly household spending indicator on Thursday. These will both feed into their election campaign narratives. And later today we will get a first look at their March PMI tracking.There will be similar 'flash' PMIs from Japan, India, the EU and the US out this week too. South Korea will release business and consumer confidence data while Singapore will release its February inflation rate.And in the US it will be all about personal income and spending, consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, pending home sales, and the final estimate of Q4-2024 GDP.In the US this week all eyes will be on how the threatened 'reciprocal tariffs' play out. Those around Trump seem to be starting to realise that tariffs are a tax on yourself, so are growing less certain they are a good idea. The talk now is a scaling back of the 'promised' action threatened to take effect on April 1 (US time), just nine days from now.No doubt they are very aware of the signals the widely-respected Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is giving.In Canada, retreating car sales, especially of American brands, has seen their February retail sales take an unexpected dip. They fell by -0.4% from the previous month and January was revised lower, so that is back-to-back falls in retail sales for the first time since June 2024. A +0.3% rise was anticipated in February. Year on year, February retail sales were up +4.2%.And in Canada, the Liberal government has called an election on April 28 (Saturday NZT). The race is set to revolve around who is best placed to fend off Trump. Trump pettiness is sure to be an issue.The Japanese inflation rate dipped to 3.7% in February from a 2-year high of 4.0% in January. Helping was a sharp pullback in price of electricity, up +9.0% in February from a year ago, back from +18.0% in January on the same basis. New utility bill subsidies are behind that shift. So this isn't likely to shift the Bank of Japan from its rate rising path.As expected, Malaysia's CPI inflation rate came in at +1.5%, but that was its lowest since February 2021. Their food prices were stable, housing costs fell.In China, they are piling on the pressure to try and stop the Hong Kong company who owns the Panama port facilities from completing the deal to sell it to America's Blackrock. CK Hutchison is in an impossible situation now, a pawn between great powers. How this one falls will likely tell us a lot.Meanwhile, their retail sales activity is on the rise. (At +4.0% year on year and rising from +3.7% in December, and that now bests the US's +3.1% and a fall from +4.4% in December, on the same basis.)In a bit of a surprise to many analysts, EU consumer sentiment did not improve in March as it has done previously in 2025, rather it dipped lower. To be fair, it has been deeply negative since mid-2021 and running below its long term average for the past two years.Here's something you don't see every day. A ratings agency putting a whole sector on 'watch' - in advance of failures. This is from Australia's SQM Research who now say the private credit sector (aka, the private debt sector, or 'private equity') is facing a wave of bad loans. It has a list of 14 issues that the sector is deficient with. Companies owned/funded by this sector are at heightened risk of short-term cut-and-run strategies, making matters worse.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3023/oz and up a net +US$9 from Saturday.Oil prices are stable from Saturday at just under US$68.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just over US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.3 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. A week ago, it was at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and unchanged. A week ago it was at 66.7.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,264 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$84,261. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: T.P. Wilkinson with his new book, “Temples of the Heart”. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of... The post Dr. T.P. Wilkinson regales us with his latest book and many other literary irons in the fire. China Rising Radio Sinoland 250302 appeared first on CHINA RISING RADIO SINOLAND.
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Jackson Hinkle on the left and yours truly on the right. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people... The post Jackson Hinkle in Russia and Jeff J. Brown in China have a great discussion about big, bad Baba Beijing. China Rising Radio Sinoland 250206 appeared first on CHINA RISING RADIO SINOLAND.
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Peter Koenig on the left and yours truly on the right. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people...
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NOW IN 22 DIFFERENT LANGUAGES. CLICK ON THE LOWER LEFT HAND CORNER “TRANSLATE” TAB TO FIND YOURS! By Jeff J. Brown Pictured above: Zhou Enlai, left and Mao Zedong, right, during China's civil war, circa 1937, in Yan'an, Shaanxi Province, kicking butt and evicting fascist Westerners and Japanese out of the country. Through thick and...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: John Potash and his newly released movie, “CIA Drugs R Us!”. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: the new Chinese 6th generation stealth fighters flew on Mao Zedong's birthday anniversary, 26 December 2024. Sixteen years on the streets, living...
By Jeff J. Brown Pictured above: the massive, open air statue of young Mao Zedong, in Changsha, Hunan, which I got to visit. Never forget that the overwhelming majority of the Chinese people agree with his socialist, anti-imperialist, anti-global capitalist world view. Right here, it takes just a second… Support my many hours of...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Colin and Jeff having an informative and entertaining conversation. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China,...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff For donations,...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Puli Town, our new home. Behind those clouds are 4,000m mountains! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Carlos on the show and my copy of his new book, “Fiat Socialism”. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Indi taking a break from his excellent writing. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff...
By all appearances, the connection of the dollar to Arabian oil has changed very little since the 1973 inception of the “petrodollar”. However, if we take a closer look at the fall of the once almighty dollar, its connection to oil sales, treasury bonds… it's all coming to an end. In 2023 Russia became the (more...)
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Chinese celebrating their first atom bomb. It helped alter human history vis-à-vis the West. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: DON'T DO IT! Alexis Lorenze was forced to get the flu jab and two other vaccines before they would treat her. This...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: going, going, GONE! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff ...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: case number ten below – will the US$151 million (equivalent in RMB) have been worth it, when that PLA bullet enters the...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Western vaccines are retail bioweapons. Not just Covid-19. All of them. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: that's Mario Cavalo on the left and yours truly on the right. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: DPRK on the left and ROK on the right. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China,...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff For donations,...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: that's Mario on the left and yours truly on the right. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Don Hank on the right and yours truly on the left. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff For donations,...
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In this episode I am bringing back the Tuesday night Macro spaces. Please Like, Share, and Subscribe to my channel!
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff For donations,...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: this graph is inaccurate and still shows China's economy 25% bigger than Uncle Sam's. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Robert Vannrox gives you a mesmerizing master class on “All about China”. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: the good old days, when Petal Maps used to offer public transporation as an option. I am sadly back to using Google....
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Jeff on the left hosts uber-cool Bruce Lerro, who fascinates the fans with the politics of psychology, explaining it simply and clearly...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: William the Conqueror's home base, the city of Caen, where my family lived and worked for five years, after being “liberated” by...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: a sample of the perverted textbooks that have infiltrated Chinese children's textbooks since the 1980s. The Woke perps keep getting caught. Sixteen...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Richard Cook and his latest book, “Our Country Then and Now”. Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: what a great team of hosts on the “Blowback: Exposing Imperial Decline Show”, Ben Tóth, Billy Bob, Ian Kummer and Carlo Parcelli....
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Josh Snider would make a great criminal lawyer. He has put together a very persuasive case that Julian Assange and Wikileaks are...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: from 1974, during the Cultural Revolution. Left, “Support agriculture to strive for bumper harvests”. Right, “Make great efforts to develop agriculture to...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: if you can find the “Mr. Science” book and have an interest in China, it's REALLY interesting. Esteemed China Writers' Group member...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff ` For donations,...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff For donations,...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Pictured above: Europe has some of the most arrogant, corrupt, feckless, oligarchic, authoritarian leaders in the West. They are splay-legged whores for Washington, the...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff For donations,...
TRANSLATION MENU: LOOK UPPER RIGHT BELOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA ICONS. IT OFFERS EVERY LANGUAGE AVAILABLE AROUND THE WORLD! ALSO, SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRINT ICONS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST! Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff For donations, print...
As China ramps up its military capabilities and tensions persist in the Taiwan Strait, there are growing concerns about the risk of conflict that could involve the United States. But it's not just Taiwan that could spark conflict. China's increasingly assertive presence is felt everywhere in the South China Sea from the Philippines to Malaysia. How will these conflicts develop? What do we know about China's maritime strategy, and what lessons can we draw from Beijing's behavior in the South China Sea for the country's global ambitions? And how are countries in the region managing the rivalry between China and the U.S.? Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow for China studies in Carnegie's Asia Program, joins Sophia to unpack the rising tensions in the South China Sea and the geopolitics of China's maritime disputes.Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Isaac Kardon. (2024, March 15). "Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry." Foreign Affairs
Ptolemy Pruden is the author of the book "China Rising: The Case for Containment" and the host of "The Common Sense Defense" podcast. He is an expert in national security issues and focuses on educating everyday Americans about the importance of China's global expansion and its impact on families and children. Pruden has a deep understanding of China's history, policies, and economic strategies, and he aims to raise awareness about the need for strong defense policies to prevent conflicts and maintain peace.In this episode you will learn:China's economic policies have allowed them to become the second-largest economy in the world. However, under Xi Jinping's leadership, China has shifted towards a more aggressive approach to expand its influence globally.China's Belt Road initiative is a strategy to invest in foreign countries, gain influence, and secure a constant flow of raw materials back to China. This economic expansion is part of their plan to become the primary global leader by 2049.The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) controls every aspect of Chinese citizens' lives, including social credit scores, DNA collection, and surveillance. This level of control raises concerns about individual freedoms and human rights.To contain China's influence and prevent conflicts, it is crucial for the United States and its allies to collaborate and leverage their resources and capabilities. Strengthening defense policies, reducing dependence on Chinese products, and making existing platforms more lethal are some of the strategies discussed.Technology plays a significant role in modern warfare, with the need for fast and efficient systems to detect and respond to threats. Machine learning, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing are essential tools in maintaining a strong defense.See this video on The Transform Your Mind YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@MyhelpsUs/videosTo see a transcripts of this audio as well as links to all the advertisers on the show page https://blog.myhelps.us/Follow Transform Your Mind on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/myrnamyoung/Follow Transform Your mind on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100063738390977Please leave a rating and review on iTunes https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/transform-your-mind/id1144973094
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