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Confluence Investment Management Podcast Series

Confluence Investment Management


    • Jun 2, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
    • weekly NEW EPISODES
    • 11m AVG DURATION
    • 255 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from Confluence Podcasts

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Japan Problem (6/2/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2025 8:21 Transcription Available


    The recent sharp sell off in Japanese bonds has worrisome implications for investors across the globe. Confluence Associate Market Analyst Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss where this might be heading.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Why Greenland Matters (5/27/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2025 14:55 Transcription Available


    The US attention paid to Greenland, which has created headlines recently, should not be ignored by investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler today to discuss why Greenland matters.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – White House vs. The Fed: The Looming Battle for US Monetary Policy (5/19/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2025 8:29 Transcription Available


    President Trump has withdrawn his threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for the time being, but the administration continues to criticize the Fed for postponing interest rate cuts and for its quantitative tightening policy, which increases the amount of bonds available in the market and thus requires higher interest rates to attract buyers. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the Fed's independence is truly at risk and what this might mean for investors.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on the US-China Military Balance of Power (5/16/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2025 15:04 Transcription Available


    The race between the United States and China for military superiority will continue to have major implications for investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to give us an update on the US-China military balance of power.

    Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q2 2025

    Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2025 10:54 Transcription Available


    In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – US Capital Flight and the Implications for Investors (5/5/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 13:52


    The mood has changed on Wall Street since the beginning of the year. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez reminds us what the market expectations were like back in January and discusses the current evidence that stormy tides may be ahead for US stocks as Trump's trade and economic policies have come in much more aggressive than expected.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Export Controls: Another Battle in the US-China Trade War (5/2/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2025 10:47


    Tariffs may be the most noticeable but they're not the only strategy in the economic conflict between the US and China. In this episode, Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how export controls are amplifying the conflict and the message for investors.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – From Magnificent 7 to European Revival (4/14/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2025 10:01 Transcription Available


    The recent outperformance of European stocks has been noteworthy. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this may only be the beginning.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Growing Fragility in the US Bloc (4/7/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 7, 2025 12:24 Transcription Available


    Should the current strain in traditional US alliances prompt investors to consider an immediate strategy adjustment? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to answer that question and explain the detailed approach confluence takes to this issue.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Managing an Economic Slowdown (3/31/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 31, 2025 10:35 Transcription Available


    It appears a slowdown now underway may be part of the Trump administration's economic plan. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Thomas Wash, joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should pay close attention to how well any slowdown is managed. 

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Bessent Gambit (3/28/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 28, 2025 15:56 Transcription Available


    Are Trump tariffs working as the administration expected? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to unpack the Trump strategy and give us some advice about dealing with extreme market volatility and risk.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Equities as an Inflation Hedge (3/17/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2025 11:58 Transcription Available


    It might be time to take a new look at the relationship between inflation and stock market performance. The old adage is that inflation is bad for stocks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Daniel Ortwerth, joins Phil Adler to suggest it might be wiser today to view equities as an inflation hedge.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – United Arab Emirates: An Overview (3/10/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2025 15:03 Transcription Available


    Many stock markets in The Middle East are growing in market cap, and investors are paying attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Daniel Ortwerth, joins Phil Adler to take a closer look at one of the recent standouts, United Arab Emirates, and to tackle the question, is it the right time to invest there?

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Tackling Long-Term Interest Rates (3/3/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2025 9:47 Transcription Available


    Mortgage rates in the neighborhood of 7% are dampening housing demand leading into what is normally a busy time of year for sales. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why long-term interest rates have been slow to come down even after the Federal Reserve lowered short-term rates.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Sanctions as an Investment Risk (2/24/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 24, 2025 11:40 Transcription Available


     In an increasingly confrontational world, you can add sanctions to what seems like an expanding field of investment risks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to help investors identify and respond to sanctions risk. 

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Our Take on the Initial Trump Tariffs (2/18/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 18, 2025 8:06 Transcription Available


    The initial Trump tariffs did have an impact on financial markets, but the takeaway might not be what many investors expect. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how we might fold what we've learned so far about the Trump tariffs into our investment strategies. 

    Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q1 2025

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 12, 2025 11:58 Transcription Available


    In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle Eastern Stock Markets: An Overview (2/10/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 10, 2025 12:39 Transcription Available


    You might be surprised when you learn which foreign stock markets are growing the fastest. Growth is not necessarily a reason to invest in these markets, but they might deserve a a second look, and Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to provide just that.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – American Exceptionalism and the Markets (2/3/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2025 11:46 Transcription Available


    Investors looking for the next big opportunity might do best by not straying too far afield. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss why the US economy and US stocks still look plenty attractive.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump and the Political Economy of Alliances (1/27/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 27, 2025 12:27 Transcription Available


    American foreign policy and trade policy are likely to experience major changes under the new Trump administration. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on the potential upsides and downsides of these changes and how they might impact investments.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Magnificent 7 to the Rescue! (1/21/25)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2025 10:11 Transcription Available


    For years, US Treasury bonds have been viewed as a safe-haven place for investors to hold cash, both to stabilize portfolios and await future opportunities. But perhaps that is no longer the case. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the Magnificent 7 stocks have become a legitimate safe haven.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Syrian Surprise: Implications of a Sudden Regime Change (1/13/2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2025 16:45 Transcription Available


    The regime change in Syria has sent shock ways across the Middle East. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to look at what might be going on beneath the surface and help investors understand the potential impact on portfolios.

    Confluence of Ideas - The 2025 Outlook: A Year of Political and Policy Change

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2024 16:54 Transcription Available


    Confluence's official 2025 Outlook anticipates continued-but-moderating economic growth, sticky inflation, and limited interest rate cuts, which will lay the ground work for the asset class returns in the new year. One of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, joins the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.

    Confluence of Ideas – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2024 20:54 Transcription Available


    In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2025. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including American hegemony, China's economic growth, and the continuing problems in the Middle East. 

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Household Cash Levels and the S&P 500 (12/9/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2024 8:21 Transcription Available


    It does make sense that when you look at the total world of investing, a high amount held in money market funds might subtract from total assets invested in stocks, and stock valuations might shrink as a result. But clearly that equitation has not been working lately. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss what this might portend for the stock market.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Bonds and the Post-Election Environment (11/25/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 25, 2024 7:54 Transcription Available


    The decisive November election results did have an impact on the bond market. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss the post-election environment for bonds.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukraine War (11/18/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 18, 2024 14:01 Transcription Available


    Important developments in the Ukraine war this year include Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region of Russia. Another is the subject of today's discussion:  North Korea's agreement to send troops to Russia to help in its war effort. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should take notice.

    Confluence of Ideas - Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q4 2024

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 11, 2024 11:53 Transcription Available


    In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly -Let's Talk About Tariffs! (11/11/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 11, 2024 11:03 Transcription Available


    There are several ways we could approach the subject of tariffs - a major topic of discussion in the recent US election season. Tariffs can be seen as both a geopolitical and economic tool. Geopolitical because they could penalize imports from our main rival China, and economic because tariffs might boost US domestic industries that are currently threatened by cheap imports. However, tariffs also have been described as inflation boosters and a tax on the American consumer. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to sort out the arguments and discuss the investment implications of increased tariffs. 

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rising US & Global Debt: A Perspective Check (11/4/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2024 15:23 Transcription Available


    We're talking big numbers today, US national debt numbers. Back in July, the Treasury department reported that our national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time, and at the current pace will top $56 trillion by 2034. It's hard to get your mind around numbers like these, and it's no wonder many commentators are sounding the alarm. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to take us on a deeper dive into our debt situation with the goal of adding some perspective.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly -The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2025 (10/28/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 28, 2024 11:52 Transcription Available


    The inflation adjustment for 2025 Social Security benefits has been announced, but do the financial markets even care? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact on markets and portfolios.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Israel's Pager Caper and Supply Chain Security (10/21/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2024 11:12 Transcription Available


    National security agendas might never be the same after pagers and walkie-talkies mysteriously exploded in the hands of Hezbollah militants about a month ago. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady and Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join Phil Adler to discuss how investment strategies may face a reckoning as well.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly -The Yield Curve Un-Inverts (10/14/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2024 9:10 Transcription Available


    Does the recent un-inversion of the yield curve create an opportunity on the long end for bond investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to take a look.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Presidential Elections: Foreign Policy Implications (10/7/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2024 14:46 Transcription Available


    As election day nears, this week's report explores foreign policy differences between the two US presidential candidates, which could have investment implications. Confluence Associate Market Strategists Daniel Ortwerth and Thomas Wash join Phil Adler to discuss those differences, and what they could mean for investors.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Presidential Cycles and Stock Performance (9/30/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2024 8:11 Transcription Available


    With the presidential election coming up, we will consider a timely topic this week: Does the stock market prefer one of the two major political parties? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to take us on a trip through recent history. 

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Eight Megatrends Every Investor Should Know (9/23/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2024 14:53 Transcription Available


    For investors, it can be pretty easy to overreact to day-to-day market moving events. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how a long-term roadmap can help investors resist emotional decisions, and why recognizing global megatrends is a key part of the process at Confluence.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Benjamin Button Dividend (9/16/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2024 10:11 Transcription Available


    Large cap stocks aren't what they used to be. Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors who are looking for dividends may need to refocus.

    Confluence of Ideas - Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q3 2024

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2024 14:51 Transcription Available


    In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Prospects for the Dollar in a Fracturing World (9/9/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2024 11:37


    Is a strong US dollar a good or bad thing for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world and explains the process the Confluence macro team uses to measure the strength of the US dollar.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Activist vs. Accommodative Treasury Issuance (8/26/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2024 11:51


    One of the challenges for fixed income investors is figuring out what part of the yield curve is most attractive and carries the least risk at any particular time. Some market observers who worry about overstimulation of the economy are pointing an accusatory finger at the US Treasury. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to unravel the various points of view and and explain the debate over whether the Fed and Treasury should coordinate their policies.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Price of Central Bank Independence (7/29/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2024 11:15 Transcription Available


    As the Federal Reserve delayed interest rate cuts this year, signs of impatience have become more evident. For one thing, we've read and heard opinions in recent months questioning the current working relationship between the Fed and the federal government known as central bank independence. Bottom line seems to be that the Fed might be more responsive to the desires of the people if the executive branch exerted more influence. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the price we pay for central bank independence and take aways for investors.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President of the Philippines (7/22/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2024 12:57 Transcription Available


    China's effort to control the South China Sea and push back against the Philippines is at the top of Confluence's list of potentially game-changing geopolitical events for the rest of the year. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to make the case that understanding the motivations of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. may help investors prepare for a range of outcomes.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - A New Factor for Gold Prices (7/15/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2024 10:22 Transcription Available


    A traditional formula to predict gold prices no longer seems to work. Confluence Advisory Director for Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should take notice.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU Parliamentary Elections: New Strength for the Right (7/1/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 2, 2024 12:27 Transcription Available


    A tilt to the right in European politics has markets taking notice. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to give an overview and discuss investment opportunities that may have been created as a result.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Small Caps and the Hope for a Soft Landing (6/24/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2024 10:42 Transcription Available


    Small-cap stocks may be poised for a rebound. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns (6/17/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2024 19:56 Transcription Available


    Welcome to the mid year outlook from Confluence Investment Management.  Several Confluence analysts join Phil Adler for this report. They are Advisory Director Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Associate Market Strategists Thomas Wash and Daniel Ortwerth. Some of the themes we'll discuss today will be familiar to those of you who regularly listen to our biweekly geopolitical reports, but mid year does seem to be a good time to sharpen our geopolitical focus as a key part of our framework for investment strategy.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Copper, Gold, Treasurys, and the New World (6/10/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2024 10:01 Transcription Available


    A comparison between copper and gold prices has in the past been a reasonably reliable predictor of bond yields, but it looks this indicator no longer works.  Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why this is so.

    Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Philippines, China & Escalation in the South China Sea (6/3/2024)

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2024 12:51


    The South China Sea is yet another geopolitical danger zone in a rapidly dividing world that demands investor attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the history of a territorial dispute that has the potential to erupt.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Importance of the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target (5/28/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2024 13:44 Transcription Available


    Inflation in the United States may be cooling somewhat, but we are still not close to achieving the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the 2% target might change and how markets might react to that.

    Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Immigration Paradox (5/13/24)

    Play Episode Listen Later May 13, 2024 8:40 Transcription Available


    Immigration is certainly one of the top political issues that Americans are considering this election year. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain how investors might fold this issue with all its complexities into their investment strategies.

    Confluence of Ideas - Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q2 2024

    Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2024 12:12


    In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.

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