Confluence Podcasts

The economy and the stock market have been resilient in the face of soft looking economic data, a troubling bond market, and warnings by economists that a recession is drawing ever closer. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and certified business economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why, so far, this is an economy that won't die.

Europe's potential as an investment destination appears bright but realizing that potential depends on how the continent responds to the new geopolitics and the military threat from Russia. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on a key region where Europe is vulnerable, the Baltics. 

In our new podcast series, Confluence will address your most frequent, thought-provoking, and insightful questions, drawing on our years of experience and expertise. The inaugural episode features Bill O'Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, as they discuss a range of timely topics from changes in the 10-year Treasury to global defense spending in the current geopolitical environment, AI implications, and crypto considerations.

The recent sharp sell off in Japanese bonds has worrisome implications for investors across the globe. Confluence Associate Market Analyst Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss where this might be heading.

The US attention paid to Greenland, which has created headlines recently, should not be ignored by investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler today to discuss why Greenland matters.

President Trump has withdrawn his threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for the time being, but the administration continues to criticize the Fed for postponing interest rate cuts and for its quantitative tightening policy, which increases the amount of bonds available in the market and thus requires higher interest rates to attract buyers. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the Fed's independence is truly at risk and what this might mean for investors.

The race between the United States and China for military superiority will continue to have major implications for investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to give us an update on the US-China military balance of power.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

The mood has changed on Wall Street since the beginning of the year. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez reminds us what the market expectations were like back in January and discusses the current evidence that stormy tides may be ahead for US stocks as Trump's trade and economic policies have come in much more aggressive than expected.

Tariffs may be the most noticeable but they're not the only strategy in the economic conflict between the US and China. In this episode, Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how export controls are amplifying the conflict and the message for investors.

The recent outperformance of European stocks has been noteworthy. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this may only be the beginning.

Should the current strain in traditional US alliances prompt investors to consider an immediate strategy adjustment? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to answer that question and explain the detailed approach confluence takes to this issue.

It appears a slowdown now underway may be part of the Trump administration's economic plan. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Thomas Wash, joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should pay close attention to how well any slowdown is managed. 

Are Trump tariffs working as the administration expected? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to unpack the Trump strategy and give us some advice about dealing with extreme market volatility and risk.

It might be time to take a new look at the relationship between inflation and stock market performance. The old adage is that inflation is bad for stocks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Daniel Ortwerth, joins Phil Adler to suggest it might be wiser today to view equities as an inflation hedge.

Many stock markets in The Middle East are growing in market cap, and investors are paying attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Daniel Ortwerth, joins Phil Adler to take a closer look at one of the recent standouts, United Arab Emirates, and to tackle the question, is it the right time to invest there?

Mortgage rates in the neighborhood of 7% are dampening housing demand leading into what is normally a busy time of year for sales. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why long-term interest rates have been slow to come down even after the Federal Reserve lowered short-term rates.

 In an increasingly confrontational world, you can add sanctions to what seems like an expanding field of investment risks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to help investors identify and respond to sanctions risk. 

The initial Trump tariffs did have an impact on financial markets, but the takeaway might not be what many investors expect. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how we might fold what we've learned so far about the Trump tariffs into our investment strategies. 

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

You might be surprised when you learn which foreign stock markets are growing the fastest. Growth is not necessarily a reason to invest in these markets, but they might deserve a a second look, and Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to provide just that.

Investors looking for the next big opportunity might do best by not straying too far afield. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss why the US economy and US stocks still look plenty attractive.

American foreign policy and trade policy are likely to experience major changes under the new Trump administration. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on the potential upsides and downsides of these changes and how they might impact investments.

For years, US Treasury bonds have been viewed as a safe-haven place for investors to hold cash, both to stabilize portfolios and await future opportunities. But perhaps that is no longer the case. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the Magnificent 7 stocks have become a legitimate safe haven.

The regime change in Syria has sent shock ways across the Middle East. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to look at what might be going on beneath the surface and help investors understand the potential impact on portfolios.

Confluence's official 2025 Outlook anticipates continued-but-moderating economic growth, sticky inflation, and limited interest rate cuts, which will lay the ground work for the asset class returns in the new year. One of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, joins the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.

In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2025. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including American hegemony, China's economic growth, and the continuing problems in the Middle East. 

It does make sense that when you look at the total world of investing, a high amount held in money market funds might subtract from total assets invested in stocks, and stock valuations might shrink as a result. But clearly that equitation has not been working lately. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss what this might portend for the stock market.

The decisive November election results did have an impact on the bond market. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss the post-election environment for bonds.

Important developments in the Ukraine war this year include Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region of Russia. Another is the subject of today's discussion:  North Korea's agreement to send troops to Russia to help in its war effort. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should take notice.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

There are several ways we could approach the subject of tariffs - a major topic of discussion in the recent US election season. Tariffs can be seen as both a geopolitical and economic tool. Geopolitical because they could penalize imports from our main rival China, and economic because tariffs might boost US domestic industries that are currently threatened by cheap imports. However, tariffs also have been described as inflation boosters and a tax on the American consumer. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to sort out the arguments and discuss the investment implications of increased tariffs. 

We're talking big numbers today, US national debt numbers. Back in July, the Treasury department reported that our national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time, and at the current pace will top $56 trillion by 2034. It's hard to get your mind around numbers like these, and it's no wonder many commentators are sounding the alarm. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to take us on a deeper dive into our debt situation with the goal of adding some perspective.

The inflation adjustment for 2025 Social Security benefits has been announced, but do the financial markets even care? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact on markets and portfolios.

National security agendas might never be the same after pagers and walkie-talkies mysteriously exploded in the hands of Hezbollah militants about a month ago. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady and Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join Phil Adler to discuss how investment strategies may face a reckoning as well.

Does the recent un-inversion of the yield curve create an opportunity on the long end for bond investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to take a look.

As election day nears, this week's report explores foreign policy differences between the two US presidential candidates, which could have investment implications. Confluence Associate Market Strategists Daniel Ortwerth and Thomas Wash join Phil Adler to discuss those differences, and what they could mean for investors.

With the presidential election coming up, we will consider a timely topic this week: Does the stock market prefer one of the two major political parties? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to take us on a trip through recent history. 

For investors, it can be pretty easy to overreact to day-to-day market moving events. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how a long-term roadmap can help investors resist emotional decisions, and why recognizing global megatrends is a key part of the process at Confluence.

Large cap stocks aren't what they used to be. Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors who are looking for dividends may need to refocus.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Is a strong US dollar a good or bad thing for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world and explains the process the Confluence macro team uses to measure the strength of the US dollar.

One of the challenges for fixed income investors is figuring out what part of the yield curve is most attractive and carries the least risk at any particular time. Some market observers who worry about overstimulation of the economy are pointing an accusatory finger at the US Treasury. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to unravel the various points of view and and explain the debate over whether the Fed and Treasury should coordinate their policies.

As the Federal Reserve delayed interest rate cuts this year, signs of impatience have become more evident. For one thing, we've read and heard opinions in recent months questioning the current working relationship between the Fed and the federal government known as central bank independence. Bottom line seems to be that the Fed might be more responsive to the desires of the people if the executive branch exerted more influence. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the price we pay for central bank independence and take aways for investors.

China's effort to control the South China Sea and push back against the Philippines is at the top of Confluence's list of potentially game-changing geopolitical events for the rest of the year. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to make the case that understanding the motivations of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. may help investors prepare for a range of outcomes.

A traditional formula to predict gold prices no longer seems to work. Confluence Advisory Director for Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should take notice.

A tilt to the right in European politics has markets taking notice. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to give an overview and discuss investment opportunities that may have been created as a result.

Small-cap stocks may be poised for a rebound. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why.

Welcome to the mid year outlook from Confluence Investment Management.  Several Confluence analysts join Phil Adler for this report. They are Advisory Director Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Associate Market Strategists Thomas Wash and Daniel Ortwerth. Some of the themes we'll discuss today will be familiar to those of you who regularly listen to our biweekly geopolitical reports, but mid year does seem to be a good time to sharpen our geopolitical focus as a key part of our framework for investment strategy.

A comparison between copper and gold prices has in the past been a reasonably reliable predictor of bond yields, but it looks this indicator no longer works.  Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why this is so.

The South China Sea is yet another geopolitical danger zone in a rapidly dividing world that demands investor attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the history of a territorial dispute that has the potential to erupt.