Mind the Macro

While the government shutdown has temporarily silenced the flow of official macroeconomic data, other warning lights are flashing red. High-yield spreads are widening, loan-loss provisions are climbing across the banking sector, and negative revisions to corporate profits continue to erode confidence. Roughly a third of industries are already in recession—a sign that the slowdown is more pervasive than headline figures suggest. Against this backdrop, the question is no longer whether the Federal Reserve will act, but whether it is already too late.

In this episode, we discuss the weakness in the ADP report, Challenger Report, and JOLTS report in the context of the overall macroeconomic backdrop.

Markets were cheered this week by stronger-than-expected new home sales. We are less impressed. The data are notoriously volatile and often revised, offering at best a hazy snapshot of the housing market. More telling, perhaps, is the discord within the Federal Reserve. Regional presidents have struck markedly different notes from Jerome Powell's message last week, underscoring the policy uncertainty that continues to shadow the economic outlook.

In this episode, we unpack the latest FOMC meeting, the shifting dynamics in housing, Dow Theory signals, and the surge in margin borrowing. The Fed appears poised to cut rates three times in 2025, and for now, fears about its independence remain overblown. Yet the market backdrop is uneasy: margin debt and equity indices have both reached record highs, a pairing that has historically preceded sharp sell-offs.

Dan joins us again to discuss the implications of the massive negative revisions to nonfarm payrolls for the period April 2024 to March 2025. In addition, we discuss recent rising CPI figures and the conundrum facing the Federal Reserve; namely, the conflict in its inflation and employment mandates.

We trimmed the portfolio's risk profile earlier this week,though the fund remains fully invested in equities. In March and April 2025, we shifted the portfolio toward higher-beta sectors, reducing positions in defensive areas such as healthcare while increasing allocations to more volatile technology stocks. At the time, we likened the maneuver to hoisting a spinnaker to catch an additional gust of market momentum. The move proved highly profitable. However, recent data has altered the calculus. A succession of weaker economic releases has diminished the prospective reward, while this week's signs of labor-market softness have further underscored the case for caution. Although the FederalReserve may yet avert a recession, the slowdown is palpable. Thus, we are “dousing the spinnaker” and positioning for a more unsettled, and potentially more volatile, course ahead.

We discuss Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the housing market, and the implications of President Trump's potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

On August 21st, we sat down with Dan Roberts to record this episode—just a day before Jerome Powell took to the stage at Jackson Hole. We wagered he would sound dovish. He did. The Fed chair even raised the specter of wage-price spirals, a subject we had dissected ourselves only hours earlier. Our conversation ranges from the fragility of credit markets to the tell-tale canaries in the coal mine that may yet shape monetary policy. They are surely among the concerns weighing on Mr. Powell as he calibrates his next move. Enjoy!

In this episode, we feature our first guest who was the perfect first to the show. Dan Roberts, PhD was an economist with the Ronald Reagan Administration in the 1980s, and more recently, the head of Global Fixed Income at MacKay Shields, where he was the portfolio manager for the largest macro-oriented high yield strategy in the world. He also happens to be Mike's Dad. In this episode, Mike and Dan have a father-son chat on the the latest inflation figures, the current tension between inflation and growth in the economy, and what we believe lies ahead in the markets . Enjoy!

This week, we discuss the negative revisions to payrolls, higher student loan delinquencies, and latest GDP figures, and how the glut of negative news is impacting our market views.

In Episode 49, we discuss recent housing data pointing to a deteriorating outlook.

We discuss the recent CPI and PPI releases, lower universal tariff threats, and red flags in the Beige Book, housing market, and credit market.

This week we chat about mixed jobs numbers out for May and June and what the Fed Minutes tell us about their likely future actions.

This episode we talk about the US equity market recovery vs Europe and Asia. We also go into inflation numbers released this week and other consumer spending metrics over the last few months.

This week we chat about May inflation numbers, consumer confidence improving, and the interesting anomaly in Israel's strike on Iran.

This episode we talk about all the jobs numbers out this week as well as the Beige Book and the surprising Mag7 Q1 earnings.

This week we chat about consumer confidence, GDP forecasts, and the latest on inflation.

This episode we talk CPI, home sales numbers and what Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" means for the US deficit.

This week we discuss the Fed's latest meeting and what is to come in the future.

This week we discuss the Q1 GDP release although with the latest jobs report and inflation numbers.

This episode we focus on China and the current trade tensions. How big of a trading partner is the US for China and vice versa.

This episode we're talking about the 90-day pause that was just put on tariffs and the market reaction.

This week we talk about the new tariffs and their possible impact on the economy going forward.

This week to discuss new home sales, consumer confidence, and possible future GDP numbers.

This week we chat about February housing numbers and the latest FOMC meeting.

We discuss the recent drop in the stock market, some inflation numbers out this week, and the labor market still going strong.

In this episode we chat about the latest US Jobs report, unemployment, the Beige Book, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast.

This week we discuss the latest housing numbers, University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, and the minutes from January's FOMC meeting.

We chat about recently released inflation numbers (January CPI and PPI) as well as an event we recently attended with a PIMCO economist.

We discuss recent inflation and jobs numbers as well as the latest Consumer Sentiment release from the University of Michigan.

We chat about December housing numbers and consumer confidence before discussing what happened at the January FOMC meeting/press conference.

Join us as we break down this week's biggest economic news and dig into what's really happening with consumer spending across different income levels.

We discuss the jobs reports that came out this week and go into what we're looking out for in 2025.

We talk about this week's FOMC meeting as well as other economic news of the week.

We chat about this week's inflation numbers and then delve into tariffs and their impact in modern economics.

The usual weekly news followed by a historical dive into the origin and history of tariffs.

Why long term interest rates are going up while the Fed is cutting.

October inflation readings and how to think about government debt

US Election and the FOMC November meeting

This week we discuss recent employment statistics, September's PCE numbers, and Q3 GDP.

This week we discuss the housing market, the Beige Book, and the un-inversion of the yield curve.

This week we're talking initial jobless claims, housing numbers, and our longer term view on the markets/economy.

This week we're talking inflation. Both CPI and PPI were released this week. We discuss what a higher-than-expected CPI number means and what to expect in the markets going forward.

This week we have Jerome Powell's latest public comments, the September employment report, and we're entering the next stage of the Fed rates balancing act.

This episode we talk about the latest PCE number, new home sales, and the Fed's upcoming balancing act.

This episode we talk about last week's FOMC rate cut and its implications for the future.

This episode we discuss the recent CPI and PPI data points as well as next week's FOMC meeting and how that will effect the future of the markets.

This episode we discuss this week's jobs report, rate cut expectations, and the Beige Book.

This week we discuss Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, the annual jobs number revision, and recent housing data.

We discuss this week's market recovery and economic releases: PPI, CPI and Retail Sales.

This episode we discuss the recent market selloff, the carry trade, and the importance of the Federal Reserve.