Mind the Macro

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Weekly economic insights from Professional Forecasters in under 20 minutes

Michael Roberts and Jeff Baldwin


    • Sep 26, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
    • weekly NEW EPISODES
    • 22m AVG DURATION
    • 57 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from Mind the Macro

    Mixed Signals: Housing & Regional Fed Presidents

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2025 24:47


    Markets were cheered this week by stronger-than-expected new home sales. We are less impressed. The data are notoriously volatile and often revised, offering at best a hazy snapshot of the housing market. More telling, perhaps, is the discord within the Federal Reserve. Regional presidents have struck markedly different notes from Jerome Powell's message last week, underscoring the policy uncertainty that continues to shadow the economic outlook.

    Highs that Haunt: Margin and Markets

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2025 24:57


    In this episode, we unpack the latest FOMC meeting, the shifting dynamics in housing, Dow Theory signals, and the surge in margin borrowing. The Fed appears poised to cut rates three times in 2025, and for now, fears about its independence remain overblown. Yet the market backdrop is uneasy: margin debt and equity indices have both reached record highs, a pairing that has historically preceded sharp sell-offs.

    Rising Inflation and Unemployment

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2025 24:32


    Dan joins us again to discuss the implications of the massive negative revisions to nonfarm payrolls for the period April 2024 to March 2025. In addition, we discuss recent rising CPI figures and the conundrum facing the Federal Reserve; namely, the conflict in its inflation and employment mandates.

    Dousing the Spinnaker: Removing Risk from the Portfolio (September 5, 2025)

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2025 27:54


    We trimmed the portfolio's risk profile earlier this week,though the fund remains fully invested in equities. In March and April 2025, we shifted the portfolio toward higher-beta sectors, reducing positions in defensive areas such as healthcare while increasing allocations to more volatile technology stocks. At the time, we likened the maneuver to hoisting a spinnaker to catch an additional gust of market momentum. The move proved highly profitable. However, recent data has altered the calculus. A succession of weaker economic releases has diminished the prospective reward, while this week's signs of labor-market softness have further underscored the case for caution. Although the FederalReserve may yet avert a recession, the slowdown is palpable. Thus, we are “dousing the spinnaker” and positioning for a more unsettled, and potentially more volatile, course ahead.

    Powell Pivot: August 28, 2025

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2025 27:30


    We discuss Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the housing market, and the implications of President Trump's potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

    Dear Chair Powell - Are you Listening?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2025 26:30


    On August 21st, we sat down with Dan Roberts to record this episode—just a day before Jerome Powell took to the stage at Jackson Hole. We wagered he would sound dovish. He did. The Fed chair even raised the specter of wage-price spirals, a subject we had dissected ourselves only hours earlier. Our conversation ranges from the fragility of credit markets to the tell-tale canaries in the coal mine that may yet shape monetary policy. They are surely among the concerns weighing on Mr. Powell as he calibrates his next move. Enjoy!

    Signs of a Slowdown But Still Too Early to Sell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 14, 2025 28:36


    In this episode, we feature our first guest who was the perfect first to the show. Dan Roberts, PhD was an economist with the Ronald Reagan Administration in the 1980s, and more recently, the head of Global Fixed Income at MacKay Shields, where he was the portfolio manager for the largest macro-oriented high yield strategy in the world. He also happens to be Mike's Dad. In this episode, Mike and Dan have a father-son chat on the the latest inflation figures, the current tension between inflation and growth in the economy, and what we believe lies ahead in the markets . Enjoy!

    Negative News Dominates the Headlines

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2025 24:52


    This week, we discuss the negative revisions to payrolls, higher student loan delinquencies, and latest GDP figures, and how the glut of negative news is impacting our market views.

    Housing Crunch

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2025 25:23


    In Episode 49, we discuss recent housing data pointing to a deteriorating outlook.

    Higher Inflation, Lower Uncertainty

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2025 23:11


    We discuss the recent CPI and PPI releases, lower universal tariff threats, and red flags in the Beige Book, housing market, and credit market.

    Jobs Numbers and Fed Minutes

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2025 21:36


    This week we chat about mixed jobs numbers out for May and June and what the Fed Minutes tell us about their likely future actions.

    Market Recovery

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2025 21:59


    This episode we talk about the US equity market recovery vs Europe and Asia. We also go into inflation numbers released this week and other consumer spending metrics over the last few months.

    Inflation Stays Low Despite Tariffs

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2025 21:30


    This week we chat about May inflation numbers, consumer confidence improving, and the interesting anomaly in Israel's strike on Iran.

    Jobs Numbers

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2025 22:30


    This episode we talk about all the jobs numbers out this week as well as the Beige Book and the surprising Mag7 Q1 earnings.

    Consumer Confidence Jumps

    Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2025 19:23


    This week we chat about consumer confidence, GDP forecasts, and the latest on inflation.

    Big Beautiful Bill

    Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2025 25:21


    This episode we talk CPI, home sales numbers and what Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" means for the US deficit.

    The Fed's Holding Pattern

    Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 24:34


    This week we discuss the Fed's latest meeting and what is to come in the future.

    A Slowing Economy

    Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2025 22:03


    This week we discuss the Q1 GDP release although with the latest jobs report and inflation numbers.

    China Showdown

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2025 32:37


    This episode we focus on China and the current trade tensions. How big of a trading partner is the US for China and vice versa.

    A Tariff Pause

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2025 24:35


    This episode we're talking about the 90-day pause that was just put on tariffs and the market reaction.

    Liberation Day

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 5, 2025 41:12


    This week we talk about the new tariffs and their possible impact on the economy going forward.

    GDP and Trade Balances

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2025 20:27


    This week to discuss new home sales, consumer confidence, and possible future GDP numbers.

    The Fed Holds

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2025 21:01


    This week we chat about February housing numbers and the latest FOMC meeting.

    Market Volatility

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 14, 2025 19:11


    We discuss the recent drop in the stock market, some inflation numbers out this week, and the labor market still going strong.

    Slowing but Growing

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 8, 2025 23:37


    In this episode we chat about the latest US Jobs report, unemployment, the Beige Book, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast.

    Politicized Consumer Sentiment

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2025 22:14


    This week we discuss the latest housing numbers, University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, and the minutes from January's FOMC meeting.

    Inflation Surprises Again

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2025 22:32


    We chat about recently released inflation numbers (January CPI and PPI) as well as an event we recently attended with a PIMCO economist.

    Rising Inflation Expectations

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 7, 2025 23:02


    We discuss recent inflation and jobs numbers as well as the latest Consumer Sentiment release from the University of Michigan.

    January FOMC Meeting

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 29, 2025 21:16


    We chat about December housing numbers and consumer confidence before discussing what happened at the January FOMC meeting/press conference.

    Strong Consumer?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 22, 2025 20:47


    Join us as we break down this week's biggest economic news and dig into what's really happening with consumer spending across different income levels.

    2025 Outlook

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2025 25:49


    We discuss the jobs reports that came out this week and go into what we're looking out for in 2025.

    Fed Cuts in December

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2024 19:51


    We talk about this week's FOMC meeting as well as other economic news of the week.

    Modern Day Tariffs

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2024 25:19


    We chat about this week's inflation numbers and then delve into tariffs and their impact in modern economics.

    Tariffs

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2024 28:16


    The usual weekly news followed by a historical dive into the origin and history of tariffs.

    Housing Numbers & Quantitative Easing

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2024 23:45


    Why long term interest rates are going up while the Fed is cutting.

    Inflation & Debt

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2024 21:17


    October inflation readings and how to think about government debt

    Transitory is Back

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2024 29:06


    US Election and the FOMC November meeting

    Weekly Update - Nov 1

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2024 21:21


    This week we discuss recent employment statistics, September's PCE numbers, and Q3 GDP.

    Weekly Update - October 25

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 25, 2024 21:16


    This week we discuss the housing market, the Beige Book, and the un-inversion of the yield curve.

    Weekly Update - October 18

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2024 22:25


    This week we're talking initial jobless claims, housing numbers, and our longer term view on the markets/economy.

    Weekly Update - October 11

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2024 21:31


    This week we're talking inflation. Both CPI and PPI were released this week. We discuss what a higher-than-expected CPI number means and what to expect in the markets going forward.

    Weekly Update - Oct 4

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2024 19:49


    This week we have Jerome Powell's latest public comments, the September employment report, and we're entering the next stage of the Fed rates balancing act.

    Weekly Update - Sept 27

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2024 20:50


    This episode we talk about the latest PCE number, new home sales, and the Fed's upcoming balancing act.

    Weekly Update - Sept 23

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2024 20:19


    This episode we talk about last week's FOMC rate cut and its implications for the future.

    Weekly Update - Sept 13

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2024 20:35


    This episode we discuss the recent CPI and PPI data points as well as next week's FOMC meeting and how that will effect the future of the markets.

    Weekly Update - Sept 6

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2024 21:03


    This episode we discuss this week's jobs report, rate cut expectations, and the Beige Book.

    Weekly Update - August 29

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2024 22:20


    This week we discuss Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, the annual jobs number revision, and recent housing data.

    Weekly Update - August 15

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2024 19:28


    We discuss this week's market recovery and economic releases: PPI, CPI and Retail Sales.

    Weekly Update - August 7

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2024 22:32


    This episode we discuss the recent market selloff, the carry trade, and the importance of the Federal Reserve.

    Weekly Update - August 2

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2024 21:36


    This week we discuss the labor markets and the July FOMC meeting.

    Weekly Update - July 26

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2024 24:34


    This episode we discuss this week's GDP release, June PCE, and new and existing home sales.

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