Social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services
Landaas & Company newsletter January edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Tom Pappenfus (with Jason Scuglik and Joel Dresang) Week in Review (Jan. 23-27, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators declined again in December, further signaling a near-term recession. The business research group said its gauge fell 1% from November, following a 1.1% drop from October. Over the last half of 2022, the index fell 4.2%, steepening from a 1.9% decline in the first six months of the year. Although measures of employment and personal income appeared “robust,” the group said, weakness in manufacturing, housing construction and financial markets suggest recession. The Conference Board forecast a revival in the economy toward the end of the year. Tuesday No major releases Wednesday No major releases Thursday The Commerce Department reported durable goods orders rose 5.6% in December for the fourth gain in five months. A surge in aircraft orders – both commercial and military – boosted the manufacturing indicator after it declined 1.1% in November. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, orders declined slightly in December for the second time in four months. Compared to December 2021, orders for long-lasting factory goods rose more than 10%. Excluding transportation equipment, demand rose 6% from the year before. A proxy for business investment gained 8% from December 2021. The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.9% in the fourth quarter, down from a 3.2% rate in the previous three months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis cited consumer spending, business inventories and commercial investments in intellectual property among the contributors to the boost in gross domestic product. After setbacks in the first two quarters of 2022, GDP rose 1% from the year before, adjusted for inflation. The Federal Reserve Board's favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, rose 5.5% from the year before, the lowest in five quarters. The core PCE, excluding food and energy prices, was up 4.7% from the end of 2021, its slowest rate in a year. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the seventh week in a row to its lowest level since early May. The average was 46% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down from 2.3 million the year before and 19 million and the same time in 2021. The Commerce Department reported a 2.3% gain in the annual rate of new home sales in December. Despite the increase, sales were down 27% from the year before and 11% below where they were just before the pandemic. The median sales price rose 8% from the year before to $442,100. In 2022, 41% of new homes were sold at $500,000 or more, compared to 30% in 2021. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending fell 0.2% in December, the second consecutive slowdown for a chief measure of economic growth. The decline was 0.3% when adjusted for inflation and suggest individuals have been giving pause to spending amid high inflation and rising interest rates. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of GDP. The personal saving rate rose for the third month in a row. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, rose 5% from December 2021, the slightest incline in 15 months. The rate remained far above the long-range Fed target of 2% inflation, but it was down from 7% in June, a 40-year high. Though it stayed near a record low, consumer sentiment improved in January for the second month in a row. The longstanding survey-based index from the University of Michigan showed attitudes toward current conditions getting a big boost from perceptions of strong incomes and easing inflation.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter of 2022 soon. Did the US economy expand or contract? How has the Fed's policy changes affected the labor and housing markets? In this week's Econ Report Paul Emery and retired Fed economist, Gary Zimmerman, discuss the current state of the American economy ahead of the Bureau's disclosure.
William Strange is a Professor of Economic Analysis and Policy at the Rotman School. William is former Editor of the Journal of Urban Economics (with Stuart Rosenthal), and he served in 2011 as President of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. He works in the areas of urban economics and real estate. His research is focused on agglomeration, industry clusters, labor market pooling, skills, private government, real estate development and real estate investment. In this episode we talked about: William's Background and how he got into Real Estate Rotman School Real Estate Program Paper Analysis of Skyscrapers Macroeconomic Outlook Urban Economics Resources Useful links: Book “Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, and Happier” by Edward Glaeser Book “The New Geography Of Jobs” by Enrico Moretti https://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/FacultyAndResearch/Faculty/FacultyBios/Strange.aspx Transcription: Jesse (0s): Welcome to the Working Capital Real Estate Podcast. My name's Jessica Galley, and on this show we discuss all things real estate with investors and experts in a variety of industries that impact real estate. Whether you're looking at your first investment or raising your first fund, join me and let's build that portfolio one square foot at a time. Ladies and gentlemen, my name's Jesse for Galley, and you're listening to Working Capital, the Real Estate Podcast. My guest today is William Strange. Will is a professor of economic analysis and policy at the Rotman School that's at the University of Toronto. He's the former editor of the Journal of Urban Economics, and he served in 2011 as president of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. He works in the area of urban economics and real estate. His research has focused on industry clusters, labor market, pooling skills, private government, real estate development, and real estate investment. Will, thanks for being here. How's it going? William (58s): Thanks a lot for having me, Jesse. It's going great. Jesse (1m 1s): Well, I appreciate you coming on. Like we said before the show, I thought there's a couple different areas of research that I thought we could jump into and, and I think the listeners would get a lot out of. But before we do that, why don't we kind of circle back to you in, in your current role at the University of Toronto and kind of what you're working on today, how did that all come to fruition? How did you get into, into this business of real estate? William (1m 25s): Well, I got into real estate as an urban economist, so when I went to graduate school, my favorite undergraduate econ class was urban. I liked it because there are so many things going on in cities. Cities are just interesting organisms. And so I, I pursued a PhD at Princeton with Ed Mills, who is the father of the feet, modern field of urban economics. That ended up with me at U B C amongst the real estate folks. And I gradually came to understand just how interesting real estate is too, and just how much an urban economist will have to say about real estate, you know, both on the residential and commercial side. I feel incredibly fortunate that I've lucked into a, a career as satisfying as this one has been. Jesse (2m 8s): That's great. And the current role that you have at Rotman, so for people that aren't, aren't familiar, that's the, the business school at the University of Toronto. The, the teaching that you do there, is it predominantly undergrad is, William (2m 21s): It's almost entirely MBA and PhD. I teach some vanilla economics, which I think is important too. Yeah. But, but we also teach a bunch of econ cla a bunch of real estate econ and real estate finance classes. One thing that I would say to your audience is I'm also the director of the Center of Real Estate at Rotman, and we periodically put on public events, we put on one on downtown recovery back in December that was addressing the different pace at which downtowns were repopulating as Covid fingers crossed, recedes. And, and we were scheduled to do a housing market one with City Post in March, and we'll keep doing them as interesting policy issues emerge. We are, we, we welcome people from outside Rotman. Please come everybody. Jesse (3m 12s): Yeah, that's great. The, and we want to jump into one of the papers that you did, you did regarding covid. Before we do that though, I'm curious, you know, people in our industry, when we think of schools that have a real estate program at the MBA or or higher level, you know, whether it's economics or finance or real estate, I think of, you know, Rotman, I think of Osgood. A lot of people have gone to Columbia and New York for their Ms. Red program. Has that, how long has that program been the real estate specific aspect of it? How long has that been something that has been at Rotman? Because I, I feel like you guys were one of the first to actually have the, that specialization. William (3m 48s): It's nice of you to say, but it was, it started building up when I came in 2001 and we've specifically p positioned ourselves to not duplicate other programs. Like I, I, I like the SCHOOK program very much, but there's no reason that we need to do something that's as specialized as their program is, given that they already have such a program that's, that's a good program. So what we have done is to set up a smaller real estate program. We have three electives of the 10 classes and MBA would take with the idea being that people in real estate benefit from taking things outside of real estate, you know, that a good real estate person needs to know about finance, a good real estate person needs to know about strategy and my various colleagues in Rotman can help in those ways very much. Jesse (4m 33s): Yeah, no, that makes sense. So before we, we jumped on here, we, we talked about a paper that kind of pid my interest and it was just being in the commercial real estate world and it was a basically a, a paper analysis of skyscrapers. I thought before we jump into this Covid paper, we could talk a little bit about this, this paper that you did regarding skyscrapers. William (4m 53s): The skyscraper paper is still pretty relevant. I mean, what it's motivated by is that we're living in a new era of skyscrapers that if you look at something online like the skyscraper page, you can see the big buildings that people are planning to build. The Empire State Building was the biggest building in the world for on the order of 40 years before the World Trade Center. It has since been sub topped by Burge Dubai. And there are other buildings that are, are also really large that are either recent or, or that are being planned. The big question is, are these big buildings being built big because it's economical to do so? Or are they being built big for some other reason? You know, possibly ego reasons, possibly other stuff. And so we have analyzed skys, this is in my paper with Bob Helsley from UBC. In this paper we look at skyscrapers as a contest for who is the biggest, this, this is assuming that people want to be bigger than the other person. Let me give you a couple of historical examples of that. I mean, people did look at whether h skyscrapers were economical in the 1930s after the big skyscraper wave of the twenties and thirties. That was mo allowed by things like structural steel and elevators. And we see there a lot of stuff that looks game theoretical. So one story is the story of the lower man of the Manhattan Company building, which is now Trump's lower Manhattan building. And, and, and the incredibly beautiful art deco Chrysler building. And they were each built to be the biggest building in the world at the time. Manhattan Company building finishes first, so it has a ceiling on it, and they are very happy because the ceiling on the sky on the Chrysler Building is, is gonna be lower. So for some reason, the Chrysler building did not build an extra a hundred feet that would've made them bigger than the Manhattan Company building. And, and this has an added issue of personal interest, that the lead people on both of those projects hated each other. They used to be partners. There was a breakup of their partnership and, and not the owners of the buildings, but the architects despised each other. Unbeknownst to the people who built the Manhattan Company Building with the Chrysler Tower, the most famous thing about it, if, if the readers Google it right now, you'll see it is the spire at the top. It was hidden inside the structure, so people didn't know what happened. And so they waited until the Manhattan Company building had reached its ceiling and then they raised like a giant middle finger, the spire of, of the Chrysler building, which made it an extra 50 feet taller than the Manhattan Company building. It's really hard to argue that there is some economic tenants paying rent sort of argument that would make you do something like that. That's one example. Another example is the Empire State Building, which I mean we've all seen King Kong bu movies, so we know how the Empire State Building looks, but, but the, you may not know that the spire on top of the Empire State Building, which made it by a couple hundred feet bigger than the Chrysler Building when it was built, that was originally pretended to be a Zeppelin loading dock. So people would be taking international flights by blimp and, and on top of Manhattan where winds are pretty big, they, they would tie the Zeppelin on and then people would get off on on it. No one ever did that. That was just totally a fiction to allow the building to be as big as it could possibly be. So in, in, in this paper, we look at that as what is called in game theory and all pay auction. That's an auction where you have to pay, even if you don't win in, in this case, you pay to build the building even if you don't win the race of having the very biggest building subsequent to our paper, which was theoretical. Others have looked in various ways for empirical evidence in the data, and there seems to be a lot of it around the moral of the story being some of these big buildings look like they should be built based on economics, or at least you can make a justification of building such a big building on economic grounds. But there's a lot of evidence that people wanna build a little bit bigger than the other guy, even if it's not economical because of the prestige that seems to go with being the biggest building in a market or in the world or of a particular type. If you look online, you'll see all kinds of lists of, you know, biggest office building, biggest residential building, biggest building in Canada, biggest building in Toronto. It seems to be something that people do care about and not simply just the economics of, of building real estate space for tenants to use. Jesse (9m 29s): Yeah, that's a fascinating story. I'm almost embarrassed to say I I had never heard of that. So they continued to build with regard to the Manhattan Chrysler, they continued to build hiding the spire within, within the William (9m 41s): Envelope, within the structure because the seal structure, you know, you can have it own. And then they literally leveled it up. There's a, I forget who wrote it, but there was a book, there's a book on this whole episode, which I think is a fascinating story. Yeah. Jesse (9m 51s): Oh, that's great. Yeah, that it's, it's interesting too, I'm reading a book right now that New Kings of New York by The Real Deal, and it talks about a lot about kind of the Trump era of New York when it was the, the basically push to build more and more price per square foot condos, high-end condos. And it was really almost a race of who could build the best, the the tallest. And it became a lot of, seemed to be a lot about ego rather than economics. William (10m 16s): Yeah, I mean, I think ego matters in real estate. Look, I mean, I I'm just a professor, I just write papers. Somebody who actually builds tall buildings can, you know, look at this thing that they've built and I understand why people's personalities are invested in it and why, you know, they wanna build buildings that are deemed to be significant. I mean, for a long time the, the CN Tower was the biggest structure in the world, and people make a distinction between occupied buildings and unoccupied structures. And so, you know, clearly we in Toronto are, are not immune to building buildings for ego-based reasons. Jesse (10m 51s): And it was there a distinction in your research between commercial skyscrapers as opposed to residential towers? Or, or was it, William (10m 59s): I mean, the early ones were, were all commercial and, and well, I mean the Eiffel Tower shows people how structural steel lets you build stuff that's big and then the Woolworth building becomes the biggest building in the world. And then as supplanted, as I said a little while ago, briefly by the Manhattan Company building the, whatever the Trump building is in lower Manhattan and, and Chrysler, they were commercial. But now, now we see people building big residential buildings. I mean, it, it can be problematic. The, the, the former Sears Tower, and I'm having a brain cramp now about its current name, Willis Tower. I believe it, it was renamed a while ago. It had a problem after its initial construction because it was big enough that the building swayed in the wind and, and this made people feel very uncomfortable. And so there was a period of time and it, it could continue. I'm not sure whether it is or the tallest, the, the, the highest suites in that building were used for storage because people didn't wanna be up there because it wiggled around too much. Yeah. And, and, and just made them uncomfortable for residential. I mean, I don't know what your experience is, but I have a friend who was on the 40th floor of a Toronto building and which, you know, he thought was beautiful, gave him a view of the lake and so on and so forth. But during covid when you don't wanna be in the elevator with a lot of people or worse still, if the elevator is slower is not running, you know, 40 stories is a long ways to walk. Jesse (12m 24s): Yeah, absolutely. Well the one with the Willis Towers kind of, that'd be Chicago too, so I I'm sure it, it, it'd get pretty windy up there. I think for us, if, if I'm not mistaken today, our first Canadian place, at least in the Toronto area. William (12m 38s): Yeah. Ever since it's been built, that's been the biggest building in Canada and it's, it's of course commercial. Yeah. There are some things that I believe people are considering that might be bigger but haven't been built yet. Jesse (12m 48s): So you, you mentioned something that you ask your class at Rotman question that I, right before we got on this call, I would, I would've failed and can pose the question to, to listeners that you normally ask your class at Rotman. William (13m 2s): Well the, I mean, I I've said that this is an era of skyscraper construction and I've talked about the earlier one. And the question is what is it that it took for us to have skyscrapers? And it turns out there are two things that it took. It took structural steel and it took elevators. And before I ask the question, I can give you the elevator story because that is also one that's worth hearing. Sure. Elevators are old. They're like, they're like, Archimedes figured out how you could use pulleys to lift things. The problem with a, a classical elevator is if the cable was cut, the elevator would fall and whatever was on it, including humans would be destroyed. And, and, and thus elevators were not used, you know, for large distances for human beings because it was just considered to be too dangerous. The name that most people will associate with elevators is Otis. And, and Otis went to the New York World's Fair in, I believe 1856, give or take two years. And he demonstrated his safety elevator. And the way he did it was he was pulled up in the elevator with a very sharp sword in his hand to about 40 feet with an audience watching him. And then he cut the cable above the, the rope that was on the elevator above himself and the audience went, Ooh, because the, they, they were sure that he was now going to fall to his death. But the Otis elevator's innovation was, it didn't fall, it was a safety elevator and it had automatic brakes that would arrest it. Before that you wouldn't see apartment buildings that were any bigger than six stories. Cuz you know, six stories is a lot to walk up. You wouldn't wanna walk up 10. But now once you have elevators, vertical distance is not a barrier anymore. And that really changes the ability, the demand for big buildings on the supply side. This is my question, what was the biggest building in the world in 1850 around when the elevator was developed and before skyscrapers were, were started to be built? So I'll leave leave you a minute to think about it. Look it up on Wikipedia or, or whatever the answer is that the biggest building in the world was the great pyramid from something like 1400 bc. Why is that worth mentioning? Because it's a masonry building and, and the key feature of masonry buildings is that the supporting walls on the lower floors have to get bigger and bigger as the building gets taller in or in order to bear the weight to say, to say nothing of earthquakes and other problems with masonry buildings, structural steel changes that structural steel lets you go up. I mean it's, it's incredibly robust. We don't always use structural steel. Now the World Trade Center did not to, to its peril. It used much lighter framing. And that was one of the things that meant that the intense heat that the airplanes produced when they hit the building were able to bring it down. That's a worthwhile story to to point out because the Empire State Building was also hit by an airplane during World War ii, which people might not know about because the Empire State Building is still there. Yeah. It was foggy and a, a World War II bomber crashed into it, but because it was structural steel, it basically bounced off. I mean, it was, was not good for the airplane and not good for the pilots, but it, it survived. But we've learned cheaper ways to build buildings subsequent to that without structural steel. And that seems to be one of the factors that's responsible for the skyscraper wave that we have seen in, in recent years with Birds Dubai. Now the tallest building in the world for a while, Taipei 1 0 1 was, was the biggest building in the world. You have very tall buildings being built in, in many Chinese cities, especially Shanghai. People are building big buildings, you know, and, and part of it is the strategic thing that we talked about a minute ago in the case of Taiwan. I mean, if you read about that building, it's clear that this was a matter of great national pride. And so the Chinese were building it to make Taipei obvious as an important business city and to make, to make Taiwan an an important place. The same sort of thing in places like Birds Dubai, I mean, what will be the financial center in the Middle East, it's, it's not obvious what it would be having big buildings, you know, they're hoping that if they build it, people will come. Jesse (17m 10s): Hmm. Yeah. That's fascinating. Well it was good to, good to jump on that cuz that paper I saw that the title and I was like, well it's got economics, it's got skyscrapers. So just being from the commercial real estate side of things, I thought it'd be something listeners get some value out of. Well, I William (17m 24s): Mean, so for, for your readers who are in the industry, I mean, it's a valid question for folks to ask. Do the economics justify such big buildings? I mean, in, in a lot of cases they do. People were convinced that the, say the Empire State Building did, of course the Great Depression happened begin after the Empire State Building was started and before it was finished. And so the Empire State Building was financially rather a disaster. It was called the Empty State building for about the first 10 years because they had so much trouble tenanting it up. And so this is something that market participants should ask themselves. Does the market support a big building or is there something else that's going on with the building's size? Jesse (18m 2s): Yeah, well we're certainly going through a, you know, a different version of that in terms of some of the construction or or over construction in some of our major cities. And just trying to see if the, if the lease ups will, will actually, if the absorption will be able to fill those buildings. William (18m 18s): Right. I mean, we had buildings that were designed pre covid and that came on the market in 2022 and are partly responsible for the slow absorption that we've seen in recent years. I mean that's a, a very valid point. I mean, a lot of my other research has dealt with the fundamentals of why people want to concentrate spatially. Hmm. So, I mean, in Canada, a huge amount of our population is in the three cities of Vancouver, Montreal and, and Toronto. Yeah. In, in the case of the US when people use satellite data to look at how much of the country is actually occupied. So you're looking at data that reflects down on the land and the satellite can tell you, is this dirt or is this concrete? The US is a big country, 2% of it is developed. I suspect the number would be even smaller in Canada. But I haven't seen somebody use satellites to do that. So we have this situation when Toronto and Vancouver at least are incredibly expensive when households say that affordability is the biggest issue that they face economically, not just real estate, it's the biggest issue that they face. And yet everybody keeps piling into Toronto no matter how expensive it is. And thus prices continue to go up and up. I mean, I think one of the silver linings we may see from Covid is, is that through Covid we have learned that remote work is possible, can't do everything remotely that you can do in person, but you can do a lot. And that to the extent that Covid allows people to do things remotely, you know, either at different places in the same city or even in different in in, in different cities completely. That may make it less essential for everybody to be down at bay in Adelaide, you know, paying the high rents that people pay down there and thus paying the high housing prices that you have to pay to be close to bay in Adelaide for your job as an investment banker, you know, this is a possibility to un unlock value for folks by freeing them from the Toronto housing price death spiral that people have been dealing with for so many years. Jesse (20m 19s): Yeah. And we're, and we're dealing with, so we have 84 offices predominantly in, in North America, but we are a global company. And it's one thing where you are taking a b class or a suburban office and converting it to industrial or residential. It's, it's another thing to have these massive towers in cities and just trying to figure out how we repurpose the space, whether, you know, and William (20m 39s): People are sure talking about that and there's, there's certainly fortunes to be made in people who feel how to figure out how to do it. Right. But I mean, what I'm hearing, and I'm, I'm nobody's architect, but what, what I'm hearing is the challenge of the seven and a half foot ceilings that you might see in an office in a residential setting are really problematic. And you can make a lot of internal changes in the building, but dealing with the floors is, is hard. Jesse (21m 1s): Yeah, absolutely. And I think some of what you just mentioned here touched on, I noticed another paper on, on your, on your link on U F T or on Rotman's website was entrepreneurship in cities. And, and I imagine that kind of ties into what you're, what you're talking about here, it's that question of why do we congregate in these William (21m 18s): Metropolis that, that there's something in downtown Toronto that people are willing to pay for. The market tells us that this is valuable. Both the housing market and the commercial real estate market say that Toronto's expensive people aren't throwing away the money for no reason they're paying it because it's a good, good value. As expensive as it might be. I mean, I like my job in Toronto, thus I'm willing to pay a whole bunch of money for a house here cuz I have to live here in or in order to be able to teach in, in, in the Rotmans school. So that, and a whole bunch of other things. But, but ever since the dawn of the internet, some people have been arguing that distance is dead. And and I think that's wrong. Distance isn't dead. Maybe it smells funny, but it isn't dead yet. And in, in thinking about Covid, there was a New York Times op-ed that Jerry Seinfeld wrote titled New York City Is Not Dead. He wrote this in response to a friend of his, a fellow who owned a comedy club arguing that New York City was dead. And in this case, I'm happy to say that I agree with Jerry that that places like New York and Toronto are for sure challenged by, by things that happen associated with C O V D. You know, two years ago what we were worried about is making each other sick. We are less worried about that as the disease has become less virulent as we and as we become vaccinated. But you know, hopefully, you know, COVID is killing 500 Americans a day. I don't know how many Canadians it's killed killing a day. Are we are much healthier than America is in that particular regard. But in, in addition to that being a challenge for folks, the working from home phenomenon is almost certainly here to stay. It's just incredibly valuable for people to stay home and write reports for a day instead of fighting traffic to drive 45 that's from North York downtown, and then do the same thing again in the afternoon. So anyway, Jerry's friend wrote an article saying New York was dead. You know, that that that the value of being close to other people was, was really being challenged. Seinfeld said, no, it wasn't. We did some work using contemporaneous data. So the only time in my life I've used absolutely fresh data off the process and I I now have more patience with other professionals who use that, who use that kind of data. It's just a lot harder to do stuff with that. And we looked at something called the commercial rent gradient. So the commercial rent gradient is telling you how much rents are declining as you, you're moving away from, from the city center. And so, so in Toronto, rents are highest in the city center. They go down as they move away, they rise in suburban sub-centers. We were not able to get good Toronto data to do these calculations here, but we did do it in cities that are like Toronto in the us like New York and Toronto and in and in cities like that, the gradient might be 6%. So my, my co-authors were American, so they made me do this with miles, but the result was rents are declining by roughly 6% a mile as you move away from the center of activity in the city. If, if the big cities are dead, you know, given the long term nature of commercial leases, we should see people demanding large discounts when they're signing up in the downtown or, or close to the downtown, not paying the premiums they previously paid with the onset of covid and work from home and stuff like that. What we found was a little of that, but not a lot of it. What we found was that the gradient went down by about a sixth. It went down from about 6% to about 5%, but it's still a gradient. People are still signing leases in 2021 to pay a big premium to be downtown, which is suggesting that, you know, as mu as much fun as Zoom can be and as productive as Zoom can be, it's not the same thing as sitting next to the other person and, and hearing them talk with their clients and realizing there's some synergy with what you're after and what they're after, which is the kind of thing that people are paying big dollars to locate downtown and getting. So our answer is so far the downtown is less attractive, but is still attractive in, in core dominated cities like Toronto. Now can I tell you that it's gonna be that way five years from now? Of course I can't And and we do promise I'm saying this to someone who will broadcast it. So I guess this promise has some credibility. We promise that once, I mean our intention was once Covid is behind us, do this again. We are realizing that Covid will not be behind us and we'll have to pick another time to do it again and see what the evolution of this is. But thus far we're still seeing people attracted to large cities. One scenario would be that this is a continuation of a phenomenon that Toronto saw in the late eighties and the nineties when back office stuff got moved out of Toronto to Mississauga and then later to places that are farther away than Mississauga. You know, people thought, oh no, the downtown's going away. No. What we were doing was we were keeping only the people downtown who really need to be there, the people who really need to be there to interact with other folks, you know, that that's what really matters and not the fact that the physical files are located in the building there. Yeah. So this may be the same kind of thing where downtown Toronto just becomes more and more rarefied. Yeah. You know, that the investment bankers stay there, but maybe not the middle managers now that, that that is a social issue that we have to engage with, you know, if Toronto just becomes a city of investment bankers and Uber drivers. Yeah. You know, which is sort of the story that I'm telling you. Yeah. But at least that evidence and that theory points us in the direction of that being someplace we could end up. Jesse (27m 4s): Yeah, no, for sure. And I think for the, you know, kind of the anecdotal side of things, what we see on the street is we see leases being signed. We see that there is a bit of a spread between the bid ask, but it, but it's not at the discount, which we, you know, I have clients they call me and Yeah, especially in the middle, at the beginning and in the middle of Covid, they're expecting these 20%, 30% discounts, you know, on pricing and for leasing and they just weren't happening. Landlords were providing inducements, whether it was free rent allowances. But even today, we, we still see these leases being signed and if anything, the trend that I've seen with most of the clients in the downtown areas, whether it's New York, Boston, Toronto, is that there's a, you know, the term flight to quality gets thrown around a lot. We're seeing a lot more of that. And we're seeing, I agree completely, we're seeing even four years ago where a startup might want to be in a trendy area in, in the periphery of Toronto or of New York, and we're starting to see more of them have transit as a component. Not that it wasn't important before, but it's, we're seeing that almost pretty much at the top of the list for these, for these tenants. William (28m 5s): Yep. Transit matters and, and the businesses are deciding they wanna be where the accountants and the business lawyers and the, the bankers are, you know, because they need to interact with them all the time. So I mean, the flight quality, I've heard noises in that direction also that what we would see would be, look, people have been talking about the retail apocalypse for years about online shopping, cannibalizing brick and mortar retailing. Now, did that kill the Eaton Center? It didn't because the Eaton center's in a market position where people are still willing to go there, but it's gonna kill someone. I've got, Jesse (28m 37s): I've gotta go there today. There's William (28m 39s): Good for you. I'm glad one of my predictions ends up being true. Yeah. But, but credit old, old, old fashioned malls, they're getting torn down and, and getting replaced with something different. And I think we could imagine that being something that would happen too. I mean, just something that the audience should think about more generally is that the way the downtown has been for the last 10 years is different than it was 30 years ago, you know, when you had back offices there and it's way different than it was a hundred years ago when there was still a lot of manufacturing activity in the downtown, taking advantage of the proximity to the lake and to shipping and stuff like that. And so the notion that the downtown should be frozen in Amber as of 2000 or something like that is crazy. It's never been that way. It's gonna change as business changes. And that's a good thing. I mean, that's, that's a way that the ability of Toronto to deliver good, good jobs and high value business outcomes is crucial for all of Canada. And, you know, anything that we can do to make Toronto a better competitor to New York, Boston, and San Francisco very much, much serves Canada's interests. Jesse (29m 42s): Absolutely. So I wanna be mindful of the time here, will, but I do wanna get to your, your paper, your, I I'm not sure if it's your most recent paper, the one on Covid, but maybe you could give us the William (29m 54s): Covid one was the one I just talked about a second Jesse (29m 56s): Ago. Okay. So, so in, in, so what, what was the ultimate thesis of that? Was it this, this divide that we're seeing as, I would say even kind of an inequality of a potential outcome of having downtown cores be predominantly bankers? Or was that, was that the, the other paper, William (30m 13s): The focus was on whether downtown would still be as important as it used to be. And we looked at, I, I left out some of the results. The, in addition to looking at core dominated cities like Toronto, we also looked at much more spread out car oriented cities like LA and Dallas and stuff like that. And the pattern in, in those places was different. In those cases, the gradient was already smaller. It was, you know, two or 2% rather than the 6%. And it didn't change a lot after Covid, you know, because la the downtown is, is different than the rest of the city. But LA is not a downtown dominated city the way that Toronto is at all. And Covid didn't affect those. We looked at some parallel results that weren't as parametric, if you'll forgive my geekiness, the gradient puts an exponential functional form to get a percentage decline from the downtown. But look, I mean, how, how are we to think about sub-centers in North York and Mississauga and Markham and places like that in, in, in relative to having one downtown at Bay and Adelaide. So we also looked at the premium that tenants pay to be in a high density environment. So that's a, a more flexible, functional form. We basically got the same results, which is the value of density does get smaller just like the gradient gets smaller. But it by no means goes all the way to zero. Cities aren't dead yet. Now the changes are just starting and things may change a lot. We may finally, eventually end up in a circumstance where distance really is dead the way people have been saying it would be since the early nineties. But we're certainly not seeing it yet. And, you know, looking at real estate markets is one way to understand that, you know, because people put it, put their, you know, people can talk about distance being dead, but that's just talk, I mean a tenant paying, putting down a guarantee on, on real estate lease that's putting their money where their mouths are and how much money they're willing to pay for the downtown versus someplace extra or for a dense non downtown location like Mississauga Center of Mississauga relative to somewhere more peripheral. You know, what we're seeing is people are still willing to pay premiums for those things. This could change, but it did not change in the early years of covid. And you're telling me that your sources say that it's not changing right now yet either. So I think that's where we are as of this minute. Will it change, you know, who knows? Jesse (32m 39s): Yeah, it's a very, it's kind of a fascinating time in the sense that it's, it's hard to get data points when we're, you know, fingers crossed coming out of Covid, but potentially entering a recessionary environment. So it's, you know, we're, we're positive in one, but then we're drawn back in another. And I'd be re remiss if I didn't ask, if I was speaking to economists and didn't ask a little bit about the kind of macroeconomic environment. William (33m 2s): I'm not a macro economist, so I'll probably avoid, but by all means you can ask. Jesse (33m 6s): But, but yeah, I mean, how do you see this? Or if you do at all as a, as a comparison to oh eight or oh one or the early nineties and, and, you know, we, we come out of something that was extraordinary, the pandemic, but now we're entering inflation numbers that we haven't seen in, in years. William (33m 26s): I, I think it, it, it is absolutely to be worried about because inflation, as, as economists who know more about the stuff than I do have always said it, it reduces the information, content and prices reduces the incentives that price systems have. So it just makes capitalism work less well than it would have previously. So it's certainly a risk. I will say that the government's decision to stimulate the economy during covid kept us from having a recession. I, I mean, I don't know if you recall, but in May of 2020, the C M H C who know a lot about housing more, more than I know about housing, they, their projection said that they predicted housing prices would fall. I think the number was 18% in, in the preferred model that they offered. Now, I didn't have a model, but that was my inclination also, and also my inclination of the colleagues that, you know, housing is a normal good. People buy more of it when they're rich and, and there, there it seemed closing people out of their workplaces is surely recessionary. So I I I told my neighbor who I like and respect, you know, I I think you should, if you're thinking about selling your house the next few years are, are problematic. I, I was wrong. I mean, the PR prices went up by more than 30% in Toronto. Quality adjusted during that, you know, in, in part because the government tried to keep people from being killed. But now they've spent huge amounts of money and they can't spend like that forever. And economies don't stay in boom, forever, ever either. So there, you know, there there is uncertainty and, and there is risk. Jesse (34m 60s): Yeah. Well, I guess, we'll nobody has a crystal ball here for this next year. William (35m 4s): Especially not Microeconomists and, and people who spent a lot of their careers doing theorists doing Jesse (35m 9s): Theater. No, I, I, I wouldn't I once sell yourself short. I feel like a lot of the insights come from, from the micro and, and get extrapolated. Well, William (35m 16s): I, I, unlike micro, I just believe in, I mean, economist, I believe in the division of labor and there are other people who know more about macro than I do. Jesse (35m 23s): Yeah. So Will, we're, we're gonna wrap up here. What I'd like to do is, first of all, for those that want to kind of learn more on, you know, urban, urban economics, urban planning seems to be a, a passion of yours. But just generally speaking, are there books or resources that you've used in the past that you think would be good recommendations for listeners if this is something they're interested William (35m 43s): In? Yeah, there, there are a couple of them. And, and I'm, I'm giving you civilian friendly books Okay. That you could read to pass the time on an airplane and not, not a boring textbook. The two examples that come to mind immediately are a book called Triumph of the City by a guy at Harvard called Ed Glazer and another book called New Economic Geography by a guy at Berkeley called Enrico Moretti. They are both lucid explanations of the kinds of forces that we've been talking about. Now both of them are a little less real estate than our discussion has been, but they are about forces that feed into real estate markets. I mean, someone who's a market participant has to be asking themselves why are people paying the premiums for the downtown? Will they continue to pay the premiums from the downtown? And, and if not, how can I trade on that perce perception? I mean, because there are clearly gonna be places where people who get priced out by Toronto go and those real estate markets are gon are, are, are going to be booms. I mean, I don't think people are gonna go to Vancouver to be cheap, although maybe they will go to Vancouver for warmer winter weather. A question that I think is, is unsettled as of this moment is, do people who get priced out of Toronto go to someplace close to Toronto like Hamilton? You know, so you can drive in for a Wednesday meeting, but it's cheaper than Toronto is, or do you go somewhere or do you go to someplace like Montreal that is farther but is cheap for a big city? Or do you think about somewhere that's even farther still and, and, and cheaper still like Halifax. I mean the Maritimes are wonderful place a whole lot cheaper than Toronto. And if a huge amount of your work is Zoom meetings, you know, for some people that location is, is gonna be the more economical place to Jesse (37m 25s): Be. Yeah, that's, that's interesting. So I've, I've read Ed Glazer's book, I've, I have not read the New Economic Geography. So that definitely put on the reading list for those. Just interested in, in kind of your research will or the Rotman program in general, what, what's the best place to send? And we'll put a link in the show notes. William (37m 46s): I mean, look, people can email me and I will either respond or not, depending on how many thousands of emails that I get. I mean, for admission to the programs, you know, we are recruiting students every year. I think our, our MBA program is fantastic. We have programs that work at the full-time level and get done faster, but we also have part-time programs that get done that, that work better for professionals. And I actually think there's a, the case for the part-time programs have become stronger in recent years because there's gonna be a lot more times when somebody can meet a professor in office hours on Zoom rather than having to schlep up to the Rotman school af after work. But, but also we, we have these public events and googling Rotman events. I, I don't know what the le the link would be, but Googling Rotman events is gonna put you in touch with real estate things. But a lot of other things would be useful and we, we try to be good citizens. We're physically close to the center of business in Canada. It's what five subway stops or so to get up here. You know, we want people in the building and now that the building is open, I think people would find it a good use of their time to show up for some of the things that happen here. I would also give a shout out to the New School of Cities that was formed separately of us at the University of Toronto. This attempts to include the stuff from my world on econ and real estate, but also architects and planning and things like that that also relate to cities. It is the first of its kind in the world, has a fantastic director and I think we'll do very cool things in time. Jesse (39m 21s): My guest today has been Will Strange, will, thanks for being part of Working Capital. William (39m 25s): Thank you very much. Jesse (39m 36s): You so much for listening to Working Capital, the Real Estate podcast. I'm your host, Jesse for Galley. If you like the episode, head on to iTunes and leave us a five star review and share on social media. It really helps us out. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Instagram. Jesse for galley, F R A G A L E. Have a good one. Take care.
The latest federal Census numbers show Oregon's population is shrinking for the first time in decades. And it's losing residents at the sixth fastest rate. Calculating these estimates is not an exact science, says Josh Lehner, with the Oregon office of Economic Analysis. He says numbers from the Portland State University Population Research Center indicate a slowing of growth in the state, but also show a drop in the Portland metro area. Lehner says however you look at it, the implications for state revenues are serious. He joins to explain these numbers and what it could mean if Oregon's population doesn't rebound.
Hear from AIB Senior Economist Ollie Mangan as he and Stuart Banks from AIB Treasury discuss the December AIB Ireland Manufacturing and Services PMIs, review 2022 market changes and preview the economic outlook going into 2023. Visit our website and subscribe to recieve AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB .Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2
Landaas & Company newsletter December edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Mike Hoelzl with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik Week in Review (Dec. 19-23, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday As mortgage rates have risen amid Federal Reserve Board efforts to restrict lending, the pace of building permits and housing starts slowed dramatically in November. The Commerce Department said new construction dipped 0.5% from the annual rate in October and was down 16% from November 2021. Starts for single-family units hit the lowest point since May 2020. Permits were 22% off the year-ago pace, with single-family authorizations also at a two-and-a-half-year low. Despite the drop in permits and starts, housing under construction remained at the highest level in 52 years of data. Wednesday The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in December for the first time in three months, but expectations remained at a level suggesting economic recession. The business research group said attitudes rose toward both current conditions and what may be ahead. Price drops in gasoline helped lower inflation expectations to their lowest point in 15 months. Existing home sales declined 7.7% in November to an annual rate of 4.1 million houses, down 35% from the year before, the National Association of Realtors said. The sales pace fell for the 10th month in a row. The trade group said higher mortgage rates discouraged both buyers and sellers, with inventories shrinking for the fourth month near a record low. The median sales price of $370,700 was up 3.5% from November 2020, marking the 129th consecutive year-to-year increase. Thursday The U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 3.2% in the third quarter of 2022, according to a final estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The economic growth rate was up from 2.9% in the preliminary report as consumer spending rose at a faster pace than initially estimated. Correcting for inflation, the economy grew 2% from the year before and was 4% above its pre-COVID peak. The Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation showed a 4.3% increase since the third quarter of 2021, more than double the Fed's long-range target of 2%. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row after four consecutive gains. Data from the Labor Department showed the gauge of employers' willingness to dispose of workers at 4o% below the long-term average. Total jobless claims dropped 3% in the latest week to 1.5 million, down from 2.1 million the year before and 21 million the year before that. The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators declined 1% in November, with stock prices making the only positive contribution for the month. The index dropped 3.7% since May, as opposed to a 0.8% decrease in the previous six months. The business research group said the Federal Reserve Board's interest rate cuts are slowing the economy, especially in housing, and likely will result in a recession spanning from early through mid-2023. Friday By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending gained 0.1% in November, the smallest of four consecutive increases. Adjusted for inflation, spending was unchanged from October as consumers bought fewer goods but slightly more services. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income rose 0.4% in November, which meant spending didn't outpace income for the first time in four months. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge showed a 5.5% increase from November 2021 – the lowest in 13 months. The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods sank 2.1% in November, the first decrease in four months. The indicator for manufacturing demand was up 10.5% from November 2021. Commercial aircraft and automotive led the monthly decline.
The ANC's newly elected Top 7 was announced yesterday at Nasrec during the party's 55th national conference which wraps up today. Miyelani Mkhabela CEO and Chief Economist of Antswisa Transaction Advisory joins Abongile to discuss the reasons that this may have caused the rand to strengthen against all three major currencies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Join AIB Senior Economist John Fahey as he and Jane Kavanagh from AIB Treasury discuss the busy upcoming week, review the market changes of 2022 and take a peek into the economic outlook going into 2023.Visit our website and subscribe to recieve AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB .Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2
Paige interviews Oren Cass, Executive Director of American Compass and author of “The Once And Future Worker,” about the problems facing American workers and families, and the benefits and drawbacks of different policy solutions. Show Notes: “The Once and Future Worker” by Oren Cass: https://www.encounterbooks.com/books/the-once-and-future-worker/ “Where's The Growth?” Economic Analysis by American Compass: https://americancompass.org/wheres-the-growth/
Landaas & Company newsletter December edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (Dec. 5-9, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday The U.S. services industry expanded for the 30th month in a row in November, and at a faster rate, the Institute for Supply Management reported. The ISM services index showed the pace of growth accelerating for the first time in three months. Index components for business activity and employment drove the increase, while growth in new orders slowed slightly. The trade group said the index suggested the overall U.S. economy was growing at an annual pace of 2.3%. The manufacturing sector also showed ongoing strength, with factory orders for October growing for the 12th time in 13 months. The Commerce Department reported broad gains led by transportation equipment – particularly aircraft and automotive products. Compared to the same time last year, factory orders were up nearly 13% - just below 12% excluding transportation. Orders for core capital goods, a measure of business investment, rose in October and was up more than 9% from October 2021. Tuesday The U.S. trade gap widened 5.4% to $78.2 billion in October. The value of exports shrank from September by 0.7% with declines in sales abroad of natural gas, oil products and pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile, imports rose 0.6% with increased purchases of industrial materials and cars. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the trade deficit, which detracts from measures of economic output, grew 20% through the first 10 months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. Wednesday The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 0.8% in the third quarter, up from an earlier estimate of a 0.3% gain. The annual growth rate for output rose 3.3% in the quarter while the pace of hours worked rose 2.5%. Measuring year over year, productivity slipped 1.3%, the third consecutive decline. Since the third quarter of 2021, output rose 2.1% while hours worked increased 3.4%. The report showed unit labor costs rising 5.3% from the year before. Adjusted for inflation, hourly compensation fell 4% in the latest 12 months, the biggest drop in 74 years of data. The Federal Reserve Board reported a 19th consecutive rise in consumer credit card debt outstanding in October. Total debt, including vehicle financing and student loans, rose at a 6.9% annual rate from September, but revolving credit, which mostly reflects credit cards, gained at a rate of 10.4%. The level of credit card debt suggests consumers' willingness to spend. In October, it was more than $71 billion or 6% above where it was just before the pandemic. The indicator took two years to recover from the COVID recession, vs. a decade-long recovery from the financial collapse and Great Recession. Thursday The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims continued to reflect a slight weakening of a historically strong labor market. The Labor Department reported an uptick in the average for the fourth week in a row. Only once in the previous 10 weeks did initial claims decline. Still, the moving average is 38% below its 55-year average, suggesting the reluctance of employers to let workers go. Just under 1.3 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 6% from the week before, compared to 1.9 million the year before. Friday MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 11005, down 457 points or 4.0% Standard & Poor's 500 – 3934, down 137 points or 3.4% Dow Jones Industrial – 33476, down 954 points or 2.8% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.57%, up 0.06 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Hear from AIB Senior Economist Ollie Mangan as he and John Heffernan from AIB Treasury discuss the latest AIB Ireland Manufacturing and Services PMIs for November, and the impact on the Irish Economy.Visit our website and subscribe to recieve AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB .Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2
Landaas & Company newsletter December edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (Nov. 28-Dec. 2, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday Higher mortgage rates continued to slow housing price increases in September, as the year-to-year gain decelerated for the sixth month in a row. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index rose 10.6% from September 2021, down from a 13% gain in August and a record rise of nearly 21% in March. Adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, the price index actually declined from the month before, as it did for all 20 cities in a composite index. A spokesman for S&P said Federal Reserve increases in interest rates should continue to raise financing costs for housing, which likely will further slow prices. Concerns about inflation—especially gas prices—lowered consumer confidence in November, the Conference Board reported. The business research group said consumer assessments of current conditions suggested “the economy has lost momentum” heading into year-end. It called short-term outlook “gloomy.” Consumers' expectations of inflation rose to the highest level since July, even though inflation generally and gas prices particularly have dropped in recent weeks. The Conference Board said in a statement that the likelihood of recession remained high. Wednesday The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter, rising at an annual pace of 2.9%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Stronger consumer spending on health care and other services, greater business investments and increased exports of industrial materials helped push gross domestic product higher than the prior estimate of 2.6%. Without annualizing the figures, inflation-adjusted GDP grew 1.9% from the third quarter of 2021 and was up 5.5% from the quarter just before the COVID pandemic. The Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure index, rose 6.3% from the year before, down from 6.6% in the second quarter. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said job openings receded in October, sinking for the fifth time in seven months. Employers posted 10.3 million openings, down from a record 11.8 million in March. The number of hires also fell, for the seventh time in eight months. Still, openings continued to outnumber the 6 million unemployed job seekers in October, supporting worker confidence. Some 4 million workers quit their jobs in October, down slightly from September but still historically high. In a sign that residential real estate sales will continue to erode, pending home sales data sank in October for the fifth month in a row. The index of contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors, declined nearly 5% from September and was down 37% from the year before. The trade group cited the highest mortgage rates in 20 years as a deterrent to home buyers, but it also suggested rates peaked in mid-November, having declined in the last couple of weeks. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the seventh time in nine weeks, reaching its highest point since early September. An indicator of layoffs, the average continued a short-term trend of creeping up but remained 38% below the 55-year average. The Labor Department also reported that a total 1.5 million Americans claimed unemployment compensation in the latest week, up 2% from the week before but down from 2.1 million the year before. A key driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending, outpaced personal income in October. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said spending rose by 0.8% from September while income gained 0.7%. Adjusted for inflation, spending advanced 0.5%, vs. a 0.4% increase in income. As a result, the personal saving rate dropped to 2.
This episode is also available as a blog post: https://thecitylife.org/2022/12/01/the-mayors-office-of-media-and-entertainment-conducts-first-ever-economic-analysis-of-nycs-publishing-industry/ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/citylifeorg/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/citylifeorg/support
In this episode Jane Kavanagh from AIB Treasury talks with AIB Senior Economist John Fahey about US market reactions to recent developments and the outlook for interests rates as we approach the end of 2022. Visit our website and subscribe to recieve AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB .Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2
In this episode Paul Ward, AIB Treasury talks to AIB Chief Economist Oliver Mangan about the AIB Ireland Manufacturing and Services PMIs for October, and the impact on the Irish Economy.Visit our website and subscribe to recieve AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB .Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2
Did you know that 45 years after his death, the King of Rock N' Roll is still an economic powerhouse? Elvis' estate generated $110 million in income as of 2022. The lion's share was made from box office and merchandise sales at Graceland, Presley's Memphis home, while a paltry $5 million of that came from rights for 'Elvis,' the Baz Luhrmann-directed biopic. In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied discuss a Forbes article on the the highest-paid (dead) celebrities of 2022. They also look at crashing house prices, inflation and other economic matters - things that affect those of us still among the living. They discuss a recent report from the National Association of Realtors indicating that pending home sales suffered a worse decline than expected from August to September, as mortgage rates surged. Economists had predicted a 4% drop, however sales were down 31% year over year. Chris and Saied look at recent comments from Janet Yellen, 15th chair for the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018, who admitted she had been wrong about the path inflation would take. Her comments are particularly surprising considering how rare it is for someone from Washington to admit they were wrong in such an honest, public way. They also discuss a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis stating that the core personal consumption expenditures price index - an economic gauge that the Federal Reserve follows closely - increased 0.5% in September from the previous month and 5.1% from a year ago. Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating conversation. Enjoy! What You'll Learn in this Show: The reasons why pending home sales fell 10% in September, and why the drop is much worse than expected. Credit Suisse's bold new restructuring plan designed to begin repairing their reputation. Why the Federal Reserve really doesn't care about the economy. Elon Musk's plans to make Twitter's 'blue checkmark' more accessible to everyone. And so much more... Resources: https://apple.news/As5eM7M54SO2EWsuL9plSRQ (Adam Schafer's Instagram) https://apple.news/As5eM7M54SO2EWsuL9plSRQ ("Pending home sales fell 10% in September, much worse than expected") (article from CNBC) https://apple.news/A9qSNVeFmSCK17MFBNjfq0w ("Homebuilders say they're on the edge of a steeper downturn as buyers pull back") (article from CNBC) https://apple.news/AJP1GE_9_SNWrhObzFEPpMg ("Moody's: Home prices to crash 20% in Nashville—here's the revised forecast for the nation's 322 largest housing markets") (article from Fortune) https://apple.news/AIkPRht7rSnGNUgoetvBJ8Q ("Janet Yellen said she doesn't see signs of a recession, but Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman argues the worst is yet to come") (article from Fortune) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janet_Yellen (Janet Yellen) (via Wikipedia) https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/01/politics/yellen-biden-inflation-2022-midterms-analysis/index.html ("Yellen's words on inflation won't end America's price hikes") (article from CNN) https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/what-is-causing-inflation-janet-yellen-jerome-powell/661237/ ("How Did They Get Inflation So Wrong?") (article from The Atlantic) https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2022/10/31/the-highest-paid-dead-celebrities-of-2022-a-writer-earns-half-a-billion-from-the-great-beyond/ ("The Highest-Paid Dead Celebrities Of 2022—A Writer Earns Half-A-Billion From The Great Beyond") (article from Forbes) https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-worlds-richest-families/?utm_campaign=instagram-bio-link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=instagram&utm_content=business&leadSource=uverify%20wall ("These Are the World's Richest Families") (article from Bloomberg) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/pce-inflation-september-2022-.html ("Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.5% in September, in line with expectations") (article from CNBC)
Landaas & Company newsletter November edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday no significant reports Tuesday The manufacturing sector expanded in October for the 29th month in a row, though at the slowest rate in that stretch, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group's index, based on surveys of industry purchase managers, suggested further weakening in the sector with new orders contracting for the second month in a row. Employment grew after shrinking in September, though employers reported being more careful about adding to staff. As demand has receded, the group reported supplier deliveries have been the smoothest since 2009. The Commerce Department said construction spending rose slightly in September, aided by multi-family housing. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.8 trillion, expenditures were up 0.2% from the August pace and up 11% from the year before. Spending on residential construction was unchanged from August and up 13% from September 2021, although single-family unit spending declined for both periods. Expenditures on factory construction rose 8% from August and was up 43% from the year before. Job openings recovered some of their losses in August, suggesting continued strength in the labor market in September. Openings rose 4% to 10.7 million positions, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. It was the indicator's second rise in six months after posting a record 11.9 million openings in March. Demand for workers kept outpacing the number of unemployed jobseekers in September. The number of workers quitting their jobs – a measure of worker confidence – declined slightly for the fifth time in six months but remained historically elevated at 4.1 million. Wednesday no significant reports Thursday The U.S. trade deficit widened 11.6% in September to $73.3 billion, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Imports rose 1.5%, led by cell phones, semiconductors and pharmaceutical preparations. The value of exports declined 1.1% from August, led by soybeans and crude oil. Through three quarters, the trade gap expanded by 20% from the same time in 2021. Trade deficits detract from the gross domestic product, the chief measure of economic growth. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the first time in five weeks. Although the level remained 14% above the low point just before the COVID pandemic, it was 41% below the average since 1967. The Labor Department said 1.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up 2% from the week before but below the year-before level of 2.7 million claims. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the annual rate of worker productivity rose in the third quarter by 0.3%, reversing a decline of 4.1% in the second quarter. Measuring year to year, though, third-quarter productivity sank 1.4% for the third consecutive decline — the first time that happened in data going back to 1982. Over the last four quarters, productivity fell because output, which rose 1.9%, didn't keep pace with hours worked, which rose 3.4%. Unit labor costs rose 6.1% from the third quarter of 2021, down from a 7.6% increase in the second quarter. The service sector of the U.S. economy grew in October at the slowest rate in 29 straight months of expansion, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its survey of purchasing managers found reports of cooling growth and business activity amid hiring challenges and economic uncertainty. Managers surveyed cited fewer snags from supply chains and logistics compared to earlier in the year. The Commerce Department said the value of factory orders rose in September for the 18th time in 19 months,
Finally, some good news? Maybe. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that the U.S. economy posted its first period of positive growth for 2022 in the third quarter, which may ease recession fears - at least temporarily. GDP from July through September increased at a 2.6% annualized pace for the period. That was above the Dow Jones forecast for 2.3%. In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied explain why this so-called good news is really anything but, and what that means for the economy and the Fed's attempts to fight inflation. They discuss why home prices are higher than they were a year ago, but gains are shrinking at the fastest pace on record, according to a report from S&P Case-Shiller. Chris and Saied look at a report from Barron's stating that the yield on the 3-month Treasury has surpassed that of the 10-Year Treasury. An inversion like that is considered very rare, but it suggests that a recession is on the way or possibly even here already. They also discuss comments from President Biden concerning actions being taken to eliminate junk fees - hidden fees found in many services from internet access to hotels. He claims that it will save Americans billions. Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating conversation. Enjoy! What You'll Learn in this Show: Why people are getting confused by the GDP numbers and how they indicate the state of the economy. Why mortgage rates have topped 7% for the first time since 2002, and why we'll likely see 8% before the year is out. What an 'inverted yield curve' is, and why some believe it's an indicator of an incoming recession. Why President Biden's initiative to eliminate 'junk fees' sounds good, but is also a little too ambiguous to take seriously. And so much more... Resources: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/10/27/us-gdp-accelerated-at-2point6percent-pace-in-q3-better-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html ("U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3, better than expected as growth turns positive") (article from CNBC) https://apple.news/AQJtdikt0SYe4C9XCyK0o7g ("Mortgage rates top 7% for the first time since 2002, chilling L.A. housing market") (article from the Los Angeles Times) https://apple.news/Azv9ulfRjSaSc_3PaXisvuA ("The Recession Signal That Really Counts Just Flashed Bright Red") (article from Barron's) https://www.instagram.com/p/CkOPdQQOV7d/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y= ("Zillow cuts 300 jobs, citing pivot to tech") (The Real Deal via Instagram) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/25/home-prices-cooled-at-a-record-pace-in-august-sp-case-shiller-says.html ("Home prices cooled at a record pace in August, S&P Case-Shiller says") (article from CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/powell-again-is-facing-political-pressure-as-worries-mount-over-the-economy.html? ("Powell again is facing political pressure as worries mount over the economy") (article from CNBC)
Renee Shaw and guests discuss inflation and the economy. Guests: John Garen, Ph.D., economics professor, University of Kentucky; Janet Harrah, senior director of the Center for Economic Analysis and Development, Northern Kentucky University; Jason Bailey, executive director, Kentucky Center for Economic Policy; and Charles Aull, executive director, Kentucky Chamber Center for Policy and Research.
Landaas & Company newsletter October edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (Oct. 24-28) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The year-to-year gain in housing prices slowed more in August than in any month in about three decades of data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index rose 13% from August 2021, down from a 15.6% increase in July. And though prices continued advancing at a double-digit pace, August marked the fifth straight month of deceleration since hitting a record high of 20.8% in March. A spokesman for the index said further slowing in price gains should be expected, considering how rising mortgage rates are affecting housing affordability. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dipped in October for the first time in three months as concerns grew about inflation. The business research group said holiday sales could be challenging and called consumers' short-term outlook “dismal.” The group said expectation levels suggested economic recession. At the same time, consumers surveyed increased plans for buying houses, cars and major appliances. Wednesday The annual rate of new home sales slowed nearly 11% in September, the third decline in four months, the Commerce Department reported. The volatile indicator was 18% behind its pace in September 2021. Southern states accounted for most of the slowing from August while the south and west were the only regions declining from the year before. Even though sales overall were off, the median price for a new house continued to climb, rising to $470,600 in September, up 14% from the year before. The median time new residences were on the market was one and a half months, the briefest in 47 years of data. Thursday Demand for long-lasting manufactured products rose 0.4% in September, the sixth gain in seven months. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders through the first nine months of 2021 were up 11% from the same time in 2021. Orders for automobiles and commercial aircraft led the monthly increase, but excluding the volatile transportation category showed a 0.5% decline. Year to year, orders excluding transportation rose 8%. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, fell 0.7% from August and were up 9.5% from September 2021. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, rising 14% above its low point just before the pandemic. The Labor Department reported the new-claim average was still 41% below the 55-year average, a reminder of the relatively tight labor market. In the latest week, 1.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 0.2% from the week before and down from 2.8 million the year before. The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.6% in the third quarter, reversing two previous quarters of shrinking. Adjusted for inflation, gross domestic product reached a record $20 trillion and was up 4.2% from the peak prior to the 2020 recession, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Consumer spending, which generates about 70% of economic activity, advanced at a slower pace than in the second quarter. Spending on housing declined at a 26% annual rate, the worst in six straight quarters of decline. The Federal Reserve Board's preferred measure of inflation rose 6.3% from the third quarter of 2021, the lowest since a 5.7% rate at the end of 2021 but still far beyond the long-term target of 2%. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.6% in September, as personal income gained 0.4%. The personal saving rate continued to fall, dropping to 3.1% in September, dropping from a record high of 33.8% in April 2020. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, increased 6.2% in September,
The U.S. economy grew by 2.6% in the third quarter of 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reportreleased Thursday.Compared with the gross domestic product figure from the second quarter, which showed the economy shrunk 0.6%, that appears to be solid economic growth.Not quite—according to E.J. Antoni, a research fellow in regional economics in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation. (The Daily Signal is the news outlet of The Heritage Foundation.)"Usually, when we talk about these numbers, we always think a growing GDP means a growing economy, and that's good for people, but this is one of those instances where that's not really the case," Antoni says. Antoni offered his predictions for future GDP reports."As a former bartender, I'll use a bit of an alcohol analogy here. This last report—the third-quarter report, that is—I think was last call. So, if you want to judge the party based on alcohol consumption, things are looking great. That's a high number, " he says. "But viewed in context, the party's over. And I think from here on out, we go back to negative numbers," he added.Antoni joins "The Daily Signal Podcast" to discuss the GDP further, as well as President Joe Biden's false claim that he won congressional passage of his student-loan forgiveness plan, and how the economy is affecting Americans. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
In this episode John Heffernan, AIB Treasury talks to AIB Senior Economist John Fahey about market reaction to recent developments in the UK and the outlook for currency markets.Visit our website and subscribe to recieve AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB .Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2
Ross McKitrick is a Professor of Economics at the University of Guelph where he specializes in environment, energy and climate policy. He has published widely on the economics of pollution, climate change and public policy. His book Economic Analysis of Environmental Policy was published by the University of Toronto Press in 2010. His background in applied statistics has also led him to collaborative work across a wide range of topics in the physical sciences including paleoclimate reconstruction, malaria transmission, surface temperature measurement and climate model evaluation. Professor McKitrick has made many invited academic presentations around the world, and has testified before the US Congress and committees of the Canadian House of Commons and Senate. https://www.rossmckitrick.com/ https://twitter.com/RossMcKitrick —— Tom Nelson's Twitter: https://twitter.com/tan123 Substack: https://tomn.substack.com/ About Tom: https://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2022/03/about-me-tom-nelson.html Notes for climate skeptics: https://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2019/06/useful-notes-for-climate-skeptics.html ClimateGate emails: https://tomnelson.blogspot.com/p/climategate_05.html
Landaas & Company newsletter October edition now available. Click here for the 2022 Investment Outlook Seminar Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Sept. 27-Oct. 1, 2021) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major reports or releases Tuesday The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods declined in August for the second month in a row, reaching a year-to-year increase of 11%. The indicator for manufacturing demand dipped largely because of a downturn in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.2% from July and were 8% above their level in August 2021. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, gained 1.3% from July and were up 10% from the year before. The annual gain in housing prices slowed to 15.8% in July from 18% in June, the biggest one-month slide in about three decades of data, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Price increases decelerated for the third month in a row after reaching a record year-to-year jump of 20.6% in April. An S&P economist said housing inflation should continue to ease with more increases in mortgage interest rates. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose September for the second consecutive month. The business research group said advances in jobs and wages and declines in gas prices helped consumers worry less about inflation. According to the group's survey, purchasing intentions were down for houses but up for cars and appliances. The Conference Board said the outlook for consumer spending looked better through the end of the year but added that high inflation and rising interest rates remained obstacles and recession is still a risk. Wednesday With a forecast of mortgage rates nearing 7% in coming months, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index declined 2% in August, the third setback in a row and the seventh in eight months. Contract signings for houses and condominiums dropped 24% from their level in August 2021, the trade group said. The Realtors projected 2022 sales to be fewer than 5.2 million houses, which would be down 15% from 2021. They expect another 7% decline in 2023. Meantime, the association says the median home price for 2022 should be about 10% higher than 2021 with only a 1% increase expected for 2023. Thursday The U.S. economy contracted at an annual pace of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2022, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed in a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The decline followed a 1.6% annualized dip in the first quarter. Despite the slower pace, the economy was 1.8% bigger than the year before and 3.5% larger than at the end of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation showed a 6.6% increase since the second quarter of 2021, the highest since the fourth quarter of 1981. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth week in a row, reaching its lowest point since May. At 207,000, the average was 44% below its 55-year average. The Labor Department said 1.3 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, up slightly from the week before but down from more than 5 million from the year before. Friday By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.4% in August, while personal income advanced 0.3%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal consumption reached 18% above its pre-pandemic peak. The personal saving rate stayed at 3.5%, the same as July, down from 9.3% in February 2020. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge showed a 6.2% increase from August 2020 – the lowest since January but still near a 40-year high. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose a smidge in September,
Tomorrow we'll get the best coordinates of where this economy is, and from there, we may get a better idea of where it is going. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will give their third and final estimate of the economy's position, the GDP for the second quarter.
Tomorrow we'll get the best coordinates of where this economy is, and from there, we may get a better idea of where it is going. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will give their third and final estimate of the economy's position, the GDP for the second quarter.
Tomorrow we'll get the best coordinates of where this economy is, and from there, we may get a better idea of where it is going. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will give their third and final estimate of the economy's position, the GDP for the second quarter.
In this episode, we continue our discussion with Nathan B. Oman, the W. Taylor Reveley III Research Professor and Co-Director of the Center for the Study of Law and Markets at William & Mary School of Law. Nate specializes in Contract Law, the Economic Analysis of Law, Jurisprudence, Law and Religion, and Legal History. Today, we're discussing his 2009 article, Specific Performance and the Thirteenth Amendment, published in the Minnesota Law Review. As I mentioned in episode 1, the article first came to my attention this summer, when the internet erupted with suggestions that the specific performance clause in the Elon Musk (more precisely, X Holdings) merger agreement with Twitter wasn't enforceable because of the 13th Amendment. As you heard in our last episode, Nate strongly disagrees with that take. I've split my discussion with Nate into two parts. In Episode 1, largely driven by questions from UVA Law 3Ls Bridget Boyd and Jenn Scoler, we discussed the Musk-Twitter litigation and the various provisions of the merger agreement, including the specific performance provision and the termination fee. In this episode, we delve more deeply into Nate's analysis of the scope of the 13th amendment's prohibition against indentured servitude and its relation to the specific performance of personal service contracts. As always, we spend some time on examples from the world of sports . . . because hey, we're in Virginia. Links:Nathan B. Oman faculty bio https://law2.wm.edu/faculty/bios/fulltime/nboman.php Nathan B. Oman, Specific Performance and the Thirteenth Amendment, 93 MINN. L. REV. 2020 (2009). https://www.minnesotalawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Oman_MLR.pdfAmendment and Plan of Merger by and among X Holdings I, Inc., X Holdings II, Inc. and Twitter, Inc. dated as of April 25, 2022 https://kimberlydkrawiec.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Musk-Twitter-Agreement.pdf
With the stock market in disarray, interest rates at record highs, and the pain of inflation, many Americans are wondering if the economy is in a recession. How can we tell if we're in one? The country is technically in a recession when its GDP decreases for two consecutive quarters. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advanced estimate, GDP fell 1.6% in Q1 and 0.9% in Q2. Despite the overwhelming evidence, the National Bureau of Economic Research has not yet declared a recession. As the cost of living continues to rise, interest rates increase, and layoffs multiply. However, the job market and corporate earnings numbers appear strong. There has been a significant slowdown in the real estate market, income and spending are struggling to keep up with inflation, and layoffs have begun to increase. Is the United States in recession? In the new episode of The Free Retiree Show, Wealth manager, Lee Michael Murphy gives the current economic update for September 2022. Discover the risk of a potential economic downturn or recession and how long it will last. Learn how to stay wise and calm despite the economic weakness. Tune in to The Free Retiree Show! What you'll learn in this episode: Is the United States in a recession? How long will the recession last? What is the economic update as of September 2022? How bad is the current market? How to stay calm and wise during this economic period?
Kinsella on Liberty Podcast: Episode 395. From the recently-concluded Sixteenth Annual (2022) Meeting of the PFS, Bodrum, Turkey (Sept. 17, 2022). This is the audio from my iPhone. Professionally-produced audio and video will be released in a few weeks. The slide presentation is also streamed below (ppt). For others, see the PFS YouTube channel, including the PFS 2022 YouTube Playlist (forthcoming). Related: The “If you own something, that implies that you can sell it; if you sell something, that implies you must own it first” Fallacies The Non-Aggression Principle as a Limit on Action, Not on Property Rights IP and Aggression as Limits on Property Rights: How They Differ KOL044 | “Correcting some Common Libertarian Misconceptions” (PFS 2011) KOL049 | “Libertarian Controversies Lecture 5” (Mises Academy, 2011) KOL274 | Nobody Owns Bitcoin (PFS 2019) KOL004 | Interview with Walter Block on Voluntary Slavery and Inalienability Thoughts on Walter Block on Voluntary Slavery, Alienability vs. Inalienability, Property and Contract, Rothbard and Evers “On Conflictability and Conflictable Resources” How We Come To Own Ourselves Aggression and Property Rights Plank in the Libertarian Party Platform A Libertarian Theory of Contract: Title Transfer, Binding Promises, and Inalienability Cordato and Kirzner on Intellectual Property On the Danger of Metaphors in Scientific Discourse Hoppe, “A Note on Preference and Indifference in Economic Analysis” and “Further Notes on Preference and Indifference: Rejoinder to Block,” both in The Great Fiction
In this episode, UVA Law 3Ls Bridget Boyd and Jenn Scoler join me to interview Nathan B. Oman, the W. Taylor Reveley III Research Professor and Co-Director of the Center for the Study of Law and Markets at William & Mary School of Law. Nate specializes in Contract Law, the Economic Analysis of Law, Jurisprudence, Law and Religion, and Legal History. Today, we're discussing his 2009 article, Specific Performance and the Thirteenth Amendment, published in the Minnesota Law Review. The article first came to my attention this summer, when the internet erupted with suggestions that the specific performance clause in the Elon Musk (more precisely, X Holdings) merger agreement with Twitter wasn't enforceable because of the 13thAmendment. As you'll hear in this episode, Nate is having none of that. I've split my discussion with Nate into two parts. In this Part, largely driven by questions from Bridget and Jenn, we discuss the Musk-Twitter litigation and the various provisions of the merger agreement, including the specific performance provision and the termination fee. If you're covering that litigation in class this year, in my completely and wholly unbiased view , the episode makes a really nice introduction for students to some of the issues. Links:Nathan B. Oman faculty bio https://law2.wm.edu/faculty/bios/fulltime/nboman.phpNathan B. Oman, Specific Performance and the Thirteenth Amendment, 93 MINN. L. REV. 2020 (2009). https://www.minnesotalawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Oman_MLR.pdfAmendment and Plan of Merger by and among X Holdings I, Inc., X Holdings II, Inc. and Twitter, Inc. dated as of April 25, 2022 https://kimberlydkrawiec.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Musk-Twitter-Agreement.pdf
Landaas & Company newsletter September edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Sept. 5-9, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Markets and government agencies closed for Labor Day Tuesday The U.S. service sector expanded in August for the 27th month in a row and at a slightly faster pace for the third consecutive month, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The industry group surveyed purchasing managers who said business activity, new orders and employment all grew at higher rates in August. Survey respondents also reported improvements in supply chains, logistics and costs, despite ongoing materials shortages. Based on its index, the ISM suggested the country's gross domestic product was growing at an annual pace of 2.5%. Wednesday The U.S. trade gap narrowed by nearly 13% in July to $70.6 billion, down four months in a row after reaching a record $107 billion deficit in March. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported exports rose 0.2% in July, including increased sales abroad of cars, foods, industrial supplies and travel services from the U.S. At the same time, imports declined by 2.9%, led by sales of consumer goods from other countries. Through the first seven months of 2022, the trade deficit rose 29% from the year before to $137 billion, with a 20% rise in exports and a 22% rise in imports. Thursday The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks, dropping to the lowest point since July and 37% below the 55-year average. New claims had been rising marginally since hitting an all-time low in April, but they're a fraction of their level at the onset of the COVID pandemic. In further evidence of the strength of the employment market, the Labor Department reported that total claims declined nearly 2% from the previous week to 1.4 million, as opposed to nearly 12 million claims the year before. In a sign of continued consumer spending, the Federal Reserve Board reported another rise in consumer credit debt outstanding in July. Total debt rose at a 6% annual rate. More significantly, revolving credit climbed at a nearly 12% clip. Revolving credit mostly includes credit card debt and is indicative of consumer spending, which drives nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity. Revolving debt surpassed its pre-pandemic level in April and was 3.5% above that mark in July. It took a decade for revolving credit to recover from the financial collapse that precipitated the Great Recession. Friday No major releases MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 12112, up 481 points or 4.1% Standard & Poor's 500 – 4067, up 143 points or 3.6% Dow Jones Industrial – 32152, up 833 points or 2.7% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.32%, up 0.13 point Send us a question for our next podcast. Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail.
The Inflation Reduction Act may be smaller than the original Build Back Better plan, but it still represents a huge leap forward in middle-out economic thinking. The IRA addresses out-of-control healthcare costs, it helps build a fairer tax code, and it combats the climate crisis. It's a huge win for the Biden administration and, more importantly, for the middle class. Economist Rose Khattar breaks down the many benefits of the IRA on our first episode back from summer break. Rose Khattar is the Associate Director of Economic Analysis at the Center for American Progress. Twitter: @rose_khattar Top 11 Benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act https://www.americanprogress.org/article/top-11-benefits-of-the-inflation-reduction-act I Helped Coin the Phrase “Middle-Out Economics”, Biden is Making It a Reality https://newrepublic.com/article/167506/biden-middle-out-economics How the Inflation Reduction Act could help normal Americans fight rising costs https://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-budget-bill-inflation-reduction-act-could-fight-intrest-rates-2022-8 Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com/ Twitter: @PitchforkEcon Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Nick's twitter: @NickHanauer
Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Steve Giles (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Aug. 22-26, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No significant releases Tuesday The annual sales rate of new houses sank 12.6% in July and was 30% below the year-ago pace. The yearly rate of 511,000 houses sold was the lowest in six and a half years, according to the Commerce Department. The median sales price for a new house rose 8% from July 2021 to a record $439,400, Commerce reported. Meantime, the inventory of new houses for sale rose to 464,000, the most since March 2008. Wednesday In another sign of weakened housing, the National Association of Realtors reported a second consecutive drop in pending home sales in July. The trade group said its index declined 1% from June, the eighth fall in nine months. The index was down 20% from July 2021. The association said affordability is at its lowest point since 1989, with the typical mortgage payment up 54% from the year before. However, it suggested the housing market could revive in early 2023 if mortgage rates steady and the labor market stays strong. The Commerce Department said new orders for durable goods fell less than 0.1% in July, the first decline in four months. Commitments for commercial aircraft led a broad array of gains. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 0.3% from June, better than analysts expected. Overall, demand for long-lasting manufactured items was up 11% from July 2021. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.4% from June and were 10% ahead of the year before. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the 18th time in the 20 weeks since hitting an all-time low in early April. At 247,000 claims, the average was the highest it has been since Thanksgiving, although it was still 33% below the 55-year average. The Labor Department reported that 1.4 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 2% from the week before and down from 12 million the year before. The U.S. economy receded at a 0.6% annual rate in the second quarter, down from an initially estimated decline of 0.9%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Consumer spending, which drives about 70% of gross domestic product, rose at a pace of 1.5%, slightly better than the previous estimate of 1%. Upward revisions for inventories, exports and spending by state and local governments also moderated the second-quarter decline. Adjusted for inflation, the economy expanded by 1.7% from the second quarter of 2021; it grew 2.6% from the end of 2019, just before the pandemic. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose by 0.1% in July, suggesting continued economic growth though at a slower pace. That was down from a 1% gain in June. Personal income also weakened in July, a trend that has contributed to lower savings for consumers. In July, Americans saved 5% of disposable income, down from 8.3% in February 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report also showed that the Federal Reserve's main gauge of inflation declined by 0.1% in July and was up 6.3% from the year before. In June, the one-year inflation rate was 6.8%, still far above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Considered a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment rose in August as slower inflation boosted economic expectations. Noting that “overall sentiment remains extremely low by historical standards,” the University of Michigan said its index rose to 58.2 in August from 51.5 in July. It read 70.3 the year before. The survey's director said consumers' economic outlooks rose after two months at the lowest level since the Great Recession. Expectations for personal finances rose broadly with a slight easing in concerns about inf...
Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle dismissed the semantics debate over whether the U.S. was officially in a recession and warned Democrats that such "word churn" about the state of the economy was not an effective political strategy. In her Friday piece, titled, "Enough with the ‘is this a recession?' blather," McArdle began by asking, "Are we in a recession? Does it even matter?" She noted "that a preliminary Bureau of Economic Analysis report released Thursday shows that the economy contracted at an annualized pace of 0.9 percent in the second quarter, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter." LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for new videos everyday. https://bit.ly/3KBUDSK
Find Jamin Online: Email: email@example.com LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/jaminbrazilTwitter: www.twitter.com/jaminbrazil Find Us Online: Twitter: www.twitter.com/happymrxp LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/happymarketresearch Facebook: www.facebook.com/happymrxp Website: www.happymr.com Music: “Clap Along” by Auditionauti: https://audionautix.com This Episode is Sponsored by: The Michigan State University's Master of Science in Marketing Research Program delivers the #1 ranked insights and analytics graduate degree in three formats: Full-time on campus Full-time online Part-time online NEW FOR 2022: If you can't commit to their full degree program, simply begin with one of their 3-course certificates: Insights Design or Insights Analysis. In addition to the certification, all the courses you complete will build toward your graduation. If you are looking to achieve your full potential, check out MSMU's programs at: broad.msu.edu/marketing. HubUX is a research operation platform for private panel management, qualitative automation including video audition questions, and surveys. For a limited time, user seats are free. If you'd like to learn more or create your own account, visit hubux.com. This is one of a two-part series on how generations are viewing the job market and what you can do to ensure you are well prepared for whatever comes. Background The US job market has enjoyed one the of the longest periods of prosperity despite many economic challenges. However, anxiety about job security is on the rise according to research done by Joblist.com: “The job market remained relatively stable in Q2 despite growing concerns about the broader health of the economy. Job growth continues to be strong, and the unemployment rate is holding steady at 3.6% – its lowest rate since January 2020. Yet, as consumers and businesses grapple with inflation, rising interest rates, continued supply chain and COVID-19 disruptions, many worry that a recession is around the corner. Although the job market has proven largely resilient up until this point, the future outlook appears increasingly uncertain.” This was published on July 11th, 2022. Fastforward 2 weeks. And, on July 28th, 2022 the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the economy contracted for the send straight quarter hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession. Given these uncertain times, we did our own research to understand how generations are viewing the job market and how we can survive it. We'll cover three main points: How concerned are generations about being laid off in the next 12-months? What game plans do generations have if they are laid off?What advice would members of different generations give to survive a layoff? This podcast will focus on point 1. We'll address points 2 and 3 in next week's episode. Job Market Outlook Our survey was conducted using HubUX and included Video Questions instead of text-based open ends. These video open ends along with using Research Defender's screening API, ensured we were talking to real humans. Gen Z and Millennials are significantly more concerned that they'll be laid off in the next 12-months than Gen X and Boomers (those of us over 41 years old). We asked 300 people, “How concerned are you about being laid off in the next 12-months?”. Gen Z and Millennials stated they are two times more concerned than older generations. Q7. How concerned are you that you may be laid off in the next 12-months? by Q1. What is your age? Gen ZMillennialGen XBoomerI am not concerned at all43% 33% 55% 81% I am somewhat concerned30% 40% 32% 8% I am very concerned26% 27% 14% 11% Key Takeaways: We then asked our participants a few video questions about their view on the economy and here is what they said. Please note that I choose the videos that had the broadest representation of what was said.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that GDP dropped for the second consecutive quarter, fueling fears that the economy is in a recession. Today's guest is Austan Goolsbee, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama. In today's episode, we talk about the most important details from the GDP report, investigate the curious case of America's plummeting productivity, and talk about why the question "Are we in a recession?" is so annoyingly hard to answer.If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Austan Goolsbee Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris examines the big economic news coming out of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. He breaks down some of the numbers and predictions and offers some insights and opinions on where he thinks we're headed. In this episode you'll discover: - Why the recession is being called, 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.' - The TWO distinctly different definitions for a recessionary economy. - The ongoing battle between Elon Musk and Twitter. This is a show you do not want to miss! Join Chris for this fascinating conversation. Enjoy! What You'll Learn in this Show: Why the recession is being called, 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.' The TWO distinctly different definitions for a recessionary economy. The ongoing battle between Elon Musk and Twitter. And so much more...
It is felt all around the world, from grocery baskets to pumps at gas stations, from electric bills to clothing: inflation like rarely seen before. Amid a collision of crises, from the war in Ukraine to a slowdown of the Chinese economy, the ripple effects are being felt keenly in the United States, where the Bureau of Economic Analysis just announced the economy has shrunk again for the second quarter in a row. The International Monetary Fund called it earlier this week: a global recession could soon be at hand. To assess where the US economy is at, the Financial Times' Rana Foroohar joins the program from New York. Also on today's show: US Senate Democrat Chris Coons, former US soccer star Briana Scurry, A Love Song actors Dale Dickey & Wes Studi.To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy
Topics include: Bureau of Economic Analysis announces we're in a recession; real estate sells have fallen off of a cliff with the feds rise of mortgage rates pricing first time home buyer's out of the market and WEF is following the plan of the UN Agenda 2030 by controlling world wide food supply forcing individual farmers and ranchers into compliance. Carl contends that this is all intentional. More: www.Carljacksonshow.comFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/carljacksonradioTwitter:https://twitter.com/carljacksonshowParler: https://parler.com/carljacksonshowhttp://www.TheCarlJacksonPodcast.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed as of midday Monday, as investors anticipate another interest rate move by the Federal Open Market Committee and digest earnings reports from some of the biggest companies in the world, with numbers expected to be held down by a strong dollar and soaring inflation. We'll also get an advance estimate of second-quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as debate heats up about what is and whether we are already in a recession. “Economic numbers are starting to weaken,” notes Jeff Meyers, “and we feel a recession is on the way.” Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about the operating and market environment for small-caps and to identify the names that will lead the way out of this bear market. We also hear from Luke Gromen about how he's adjusted his view of a “Fed pivot.” Watch the full interview with Lyn Alden and Luke Gromen here: https://rvtv.io/3cEWJW2. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A Supreme Court ruling last week has caused confusion about states’ authority and non-Native businesses on tribal lands, with some saying the ruling ultimately threatens tribal sovereignty. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has data that shows a decline in consumer spending, thanks to inflation. The Brexit discussion has been rekindled due to cost-of-living struggles in the U.K.
A Supreme Court ruling last week has caused confusion about states’ authority and non-Native businesses on tribal lands, with some saying the ruling ultimately threatens tribal sovereignty. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has data that shows a decline in consumer spending, thanks to inflation. The Brexit discussion has been rekindled due to cost-of-living struggles in the U.K.
U.S. gross domestic product contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's final estimate, as consumer spending was weaker than originally forecast. The sense we're heading for recession was heightened when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today at a European Central Bank forum that policymakers won't let the economy slip into a "higher inflation regime" even if it means raising interest rates to levels that put growth at risk. He maintains U.S. household finances remain strong. “The Fed needs you to capitulate on summer travel in order for inflation to get under control,” says 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale. Darius joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about receding inflation fear and rising recession risk. We also hear from Francis Gannon about how higher interest rates are driving a shift in market focus. And we share a segment from today's Crypto Unwrapped episode on continuing upheaval in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ntyqa7. Watch the full conversation featuring Francis Gannon here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Tascha Che, Katie Talati, and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NufQyO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their quarterly gross domestic product report this week. It showed GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 1.4%. Not good. But there's a mix of stories in the details. We explain with the help of a bit of music.