Podcasts about inflation expectations

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2026 5:08

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-Iran conflict seems to be intensifying. Market responses don't reflect that yet however. In the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 245,000 but this was less of a rise than seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than year-ago levels. US retail sales were up a healthy +8.4% in June from a year ago but virtually unchanged from May. If you take out cars and petrol, then the rise is +5.7% from a year ago, and a fall from May. Still good, but boosted by their claimed +3.5% inflation. Online sales of electronics goods were particularly strong, suggesting buyers were looking to get ahead of tariff and trade impacts. Meanwhile, new order levels reported in the Philly Fed's July factory survey were impressive. But this came with a fall-away in sentiment about the future, and with unusually high input cost inflation. More signs of stockpiling behaviour. And US petrol prices are rising again. US homebuilder sentiment fell in July in the NAHB survey. Not by a lot, but keeping it in the depressed state this sector has been in since the pandemic. They have an input cost problem too. The other side of this industry is in lackluster conditions too. Pending home sales fell in June from May, and came in slightly lower than year-ago levels. That was their biggest retreat in six months. The weakness was broad based across the whole country. In Canada, their June housing starts were -13% lower than year-ago levels. These were weak in Vancouver with a big fall-off in multiunit construction, but quite strong in Toronto. In Korea, their central bank raised its policy rate yesterday, raising it from 2.5% to 2.75%. This was as expected however. It was their first rise in more than three years as it grapples with inflationary pressure at least partially stemming from a faster economic expansion. Their previous change was a cut of -25 bps in May 2025. In Australia, the respected Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations has come in with a 4.7% July result after it's 5.5% in June after topping out at 5.9% in April. Australia's official inflation was 4.0% in May after topping out at 4.2% in April. Their June CPI is due to be released on Wednesday, July 29. Global container freight rates stayed very high last week even though they dipped -2% from the prior week. That leaves them +75% higher than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bulk freight rates were little-changed over the past week to be +55% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. Wall Street has started today with the S&P500 down -0.7% and the Nasdaq down -1.6%. The price of gold has fallen to US$3984/oz, down -US$78 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$55.50/oz, down -US$2 from yesterday. Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 8 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 18 entering for new loads (5 dark) and almost all Iran-linked. More ships are exiting the Red Sea now, but much fewer want to enter. This rush out may be because Iran has told the Houthis to close the waterway if the US strikes Iran's civilian electricity network. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just over 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,111 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Craig Hemke – Constructive Outlook On The Precious Metals Complex As Inflation Expectations Equilibrate

The KE Report

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2026 17:28

In this Daily Editorial, Craig Hemke, Founder and Publisher of the TF Metals Report, joins me to discuss the moderating of the peak hawkishness in the markets around inflation and Fed policy expectations over the last couple weeks. Softening expectations have provided the conditions for the precious metals to begin to bottom and build a base, while lifting sector sentiment. We dive into the technical outlook for gold, silver, and PM equity prices, counterbalanced against the macroeconomic backdrop. Key Discussion points: Craig comments on pricing in gold, silver, and PM ETFs holding steady over the last week and not going down any further; and making a slight move higher. There was legitimate chart damage done as pricing broke below the 200-day moving average, and 50-week moving averages as a ‘piling on' effect from the peak hawkishness in the markets. However, if things calm down in these summer months and pricing consolidates through time, then those moving averages will coalesce and smooth out. This could rhyme with last summer's sideways consolidation period, where the moving averages narrowed and built the energy for the short-duration price averages to break above the longer-duration price average to kick off the next leg higher in the bull market. He believes most of the corrective move has now happened at this point; noting that every time gold moved below $4,000 that we witnessed strong buying come in to snap it back up over that level. Craig reiterated that even if 2026 was to end the year flat and somewhere around the $4,340 level where it opened this year, that this would be solid performance after the outsized gains in gold on a percentage basis from 2024 and 2025. Gold producers were chopped in half, on extreme negative sentiment from the falling metals prices paired with rising energy prices ever since the war broke out in March. Later in July and into August we'll start getting the actual Q2 earnings reports from the PM producers, and Craig feels that they may surprise many investors to the upside. The average price of the metals and margins actually were higher than many quarters from last year, and definitely a stark difference compared to Q2 of 2025, for the year-over-year comparisons. Additionally, the actual effect of the higher oil prices on producers input costs versus the perceptions will be another key data point to follow. The fear around higher energy prices was the rationale many used to drop the valuation in producers by 40%-60%, even though the energy inputs only come in around 10%-15% of costs, and so the concerns were way overblown by skittish investors throughout Q2. As we receive Q3 guidance, it will come at time where oil prices are essentially right back down to where they were at before the war even began, which should bake those concerns back out of the cost estimates. The Fed funds futures have swung to both extremes, coming into the year expecting 2 rate cuts, and flip-flopping by going to peak hawkishness and pricing in 2 rate hikes just a few weeks back, after Kevin Warsh's first press conference post FOMC meeting. Craig expects that as we get more data and those inflation expectations start to equilibrate, that the market will shift to more neutral Fed policy guidance moving into the Fall, which will be a boon for the precious metals sector. All eyes will be on the CPI and PPI numbers 2 weeks from now for more clarity on the trend in inflation. Click here to visit Craig's website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/ For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

founders fall gold investing investment complex outlook publishers fed cpi constructive shad ppi softening fomc precious metals kevin warsh inflation expectations craig hemke tf metals report

Investors hesitate and reassess

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2026 5:22

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news renewed Hormuz attacks are raising oil prices and interest rates today, not helped by a pullback in tech stocks. But first today, there was another dairy auction overnight, a full one with new season volumes returning. But this one came in sharply lower, down -4.9% on USD terms although only a -2.5% retreat in NZD terms. Among the results, there was a notable -4.4% fall for WMP, a -7.0% fall for SMP, a -5% fall for butter and a large -12.3% fall for cheddar cheese. A few of the minor categories gained. But these falls were larger than the futures market was pricing in, so you have to say they are 'larger than expected'. While the new lower levels aren't that special in a longer perspective, the speed of the falls is concerning and analysts will be re-assessing their payout forecasts. In the US, the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose in July to a better than expected level but it is still well below the average over the past year and below its long term norm. Meanwhile, American consumer inflation expectations rose when a small dip was anticipated. It is now at 3.7%, its highest since September 2023 and is rising even though expectations for lower petrol prices are included in these results. The weekly private jobs growth monitoring by ADP shows a smaller rise ;last week than they have recorded in the past 15 week, since mid-March in fact. And the trend has been down for seven straight weeks. This is consistent with the easing that the official non-farm payrolls report showed for June. The US Logistics Managers Index rose again in June and to its highest since March 2022, driven by three factors; anticipation of more tariff action from Trump, stockpiling to get ahead of inflation, and an expectation that the end of year retail season will be 'normal'. US exports weakened in May and imports rose in the same time in the broader trade result that includes both goods and services, delivering a sharp rise in their deficit and their highest in over a year. This result matched the recent report of merchandise trade but brings their services trade into the picture. Meanwhile Canada reported rising exports and stable imports to give them a larger trade surplus in May. China said its foreign exchange reserves dipped slightly in June from their unusually high May levels. Part of this was due to the retreat in the gold price. But their central bank continued its gold-buying streak for a 20th month, with reserves reaching 75.44 million troy ounces by June's end, up from 74.96 million in May. China's excavator sales are rebounding, up by more than a third in June from a year ago, driven by major projects. New data out yesterday paints a much improved picture for Japanese household spending in May as households started to get their mojo back. And don't overlook that this was in the middle of the Trump Gulf War uncertainties. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has slipped to US$4146/oz, down -US$13/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$61/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just under US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$74/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply despite renewed uncertainties with 27 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) but only 18 entering for new loads (4 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,063 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Global economic pressures ease

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2026 5:25

Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that now the Hormiz situation is settling down somewhat with oil prices easing, the global economy seems to be responding with a better outlook. First today, the widely-watched US ISM services PMI came in at a good level for June even if slightly softer than for May. Price pressures eased slightly, new business stayed at good levels even if less than for May, but employment was stronger even if it is still the weakest component. This Overall services measure has been at or about this level for seven months now is a relatively settled state. It is much more in positive territory than the S&P Global services PMI for the US. The S&P Global services June PMI for Canada is negative after a fall from May's small (but rare) expansion. Business activity weakened as new orders fell for a second straight month, with firms citing high prices and geopolitical uncertainty as key factors weighing on domestic and foreign demand. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's June quarter Business Outlook survey found similar views. Overall business sentiment has deteriorated after improving over the past three quarters. Sales outlooks have softened slightly, but firms' export outlooks have improved. Fewer firms said trade uncertainty and hesitancy among US customers are constraining exports, and more firms reported strong demand for commodity exports. Most firms did not report binding capacity constraints or labour shortages. Meanwhile a companion consumer survey shows inflation expectations are now over 3% there and right at the top of its target range of 1-3%. Singapore reported its May retail sales data overnight and it wasn't positive. Of course, this was during the height of the Middle East uncertainties. In China, a private bank in Wuhan with US$19 bln in assets has collapsed and been taken over by regulators. While it isn't a large institution, others are saying it won't be an isolated event among regional banks. (For comparative reference, the US FDIC has dealt with two US banks in 2026 that have failed.) And according to research by a Japanese consultancy, Chinese banks and tech companies led the world in applications for financial technology patents over the last decade, surpassing the US in a field that supports a wide range of financial services from lending and asset management to cryptocurrencies. They examined fintech-related patent filings in 118 countries and regions in the 10 years through 2025, working with Tokyo-based research firm Patent Result. The total tally reached roughly 120,000, nearly triple the number in the preceding decade. Also for May, the EU posted its producer price data, showing a rising +5.7% level from a year ago and driven by higher energy costs. But they also released May retail sales data and perhaps surprisingly, these rose on a real basis, up a creditable +1.9% from a year ago on a price-adjusted basis. In Australia, the Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations eased back slightly to 5.5% after the March spike that was rose again in April. But it has eased from there, and slipped again in June. Wage expectations, by comparison, have remained unchanged for the past seven months. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold has slipped to US$4158/oz, down -US$15/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, down -50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low on renewed uncertainties with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) but 20 entering for new loads (5 dark). Interestingly, Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen to similarly low levels on added risks there. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.8 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,554 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Marc Chandler – US Jobs Report, Q2 GDP Estimates, FED Policy, North American MCA Trade Agreement, Interest Rates, Currencies, and Supply Shocks

The KE Report

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2026 25:01

In this edition of The KE Report, I sat down with Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets and Editor of the Marc to Market website, to unpack another full week of macroeconomic data. We focused on the US jobs report, GDP estimates for Q2, the mid-week European central bank meeting where Kevin Warsh spoke, the shift to an annual review of the Mexico/Canada/America (“MCA”) trade agreement, further geopolitics effects of tariffs and the Strait of Hormuz supply shock, and how all of that factors into interest rates, currencies, and international markets. Key Discussion Points: Jobs Report Metrics Come In Weaker Than Expected: The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US added just 57,000 jobs in June, a slowdown from previous months and below the 113,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate, however, ticked down to 4.2%, below the expected 4.3%. Marc gets under-the-hood and looks at the nuances of the regular revisions to the jobs data, the nature of the data collection and inherent challenges with getting it all in a timely basis, and how the low participation rate effected the unemployment rate. The Atlanta-based GDP Now Forecasts ~1.2% GDP Growth in Q2: While this number is also subject to revision when the official number comes out, and is contrast to Bloomberg's 2.2% GDP growth estimate, it highlights a reduction in growth in Q2 versus Q1. When contrasting the 1.2% GDP growth estimate versus the May inflation reading at 4.2% area, some economists point to negative growth in “real” inflation-adjusted terms and point to this being stagflation. Marc weighs in on the conversation and is less convinced of the economy being in that kind of dire stagflationary pressure, and lays out the case for steady growth and how different segments of the economy are in different situations. Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy: A few weeks after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut meeting, and after getting more comments from him this last week at the European Central Bank Forum, the market is pricing in a hawkish trajectory for the end of the year; with 1.5 hikes prices in. This is affecting the short-end of the bond yield curve, while the longer-dated treasury yields are flattening. Mark weighs in on the key takeaways in these trends as well as where "real" inflation-adjusted interest rates are coming in. International Market Movers: Widening the scope beyond US markets, we discuss interest rates, currencies, and stock markets abroad from Europe to Asia, and the trends and moves by specific countries that have Marc's attention. Mexico/Canada/America (“MCA”) Trade Agreement Goes To Annual Review: Marc highlights that now that July 1st deadline has come and gone, the MCA is still intact, but now goes to an annual renewal and review for the next decade. This brings up the larger discussion around North American trade and economies of scale between the 3 countries, and the benefits of the MCA versus bilateral trade agreements. Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock Effects Multiply: While the MOU for the ceasefire between the US and Iran is on unsure footing, there has been a significant drop in crude oil prices over the last couple of weeks, easing some future inflation expectations. However, the resulting supply shock in fertilizers and pesticides, had an impact on farming in a year where the warmer weather effects from El Niño are anticipated to result in lower food yields. This is one of the big themes Marc will be watching for the balance of this year and setting up for 2027. Click here to visit Marc's site – Marc To Market – https://www.marctomarket.com/ For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Kevin Warsh's ECB Forum Speech & 2H26 Inflation Expectations

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 1, 2026 5:56

Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders talks about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at ECB forum in Portugal and what consumers can expect from the FOMC moving forward. Investors have their eyes on end of the U.S.-Iran war and lower oil prices, but Liz Ann doesn't believe that will end U.S. inflation woes.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

iran portugal investors speech ios forum charles schwab ecb sling fomc kevin warsh vizio inflation expectations liz ann sonders market minute

Marc Chandler – Macroeconomic Movers In Oil, Bonds, Currencies, Central Bank Policy, US Equities, and International Markets

The KE Report

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2026 20:59

In this Sunday special edition of The KE Report, I sat down with Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets and Editor of the Marc to Market website, to unpack a whirlwind week for global macroeconomics, geopolitics effects on the oil sector, central bank policy and how that factors into interest rates and currencies, and international markets. Key Discussion Points: Strait of Hormuz Geopolitics and The Oil Price Response: We discuss the significant drop in crude oil prices over the last couple of weeks as a market response to the MOU signed between the US and Iran, but counterbalance the conversation with the renewed tensions to end the week and heading into the weekend. Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy: Two weeks after Fed Chair Warsh's debut meeting, the market is pricing in a hawkish trajectory for the end of the year, which is affecting the short-end of the yield curve, while the longer-dated treasury yields are flattening. Mark weighs in on the key takeaways in the trends. The Surging US Dollar Index: Why the dollar is breaking out of its year-long range, achieving new highs against the Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar, and defying widespread expectations of a decline. MAG-7 Leadership Rolls Over: We've seen many of the megacap tech stocks rolling over the last couple of weeks, and dissect whether this is healthy rotation into other sectors, or a more worrisome sign. SpaceX IPO Fallout For The Space Stocks: We review the potential frothy market sentiment read of high profile IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic, and what this means for the space sector valuations dropping most of this year. Mark points out that the increased issuance of shares overall in the market data means that the same money is chasing even more paper, and causing selling in some sectors to rotate into the new trending stories. International Market Movers: We discuss interest rates, currencies, and stock markets abroad from Europe to Asia, and the trends and moves by specific countries that have Marc's attention. Click here to visit Marc's site – Marc To Market – https://www.marctomarket.com/ For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Oil prices hold despite rising Gulf tensions

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2026 7:48

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news clashes in the Strait of Hormuz are unstitching the uneasy ceasefire and giving credence to sceptics who saw the 'truce deal' between the US and Iran as superficial and flawed. The US believes its own propaganda, thinking it is negotiating from strength, but no-one else does, least of all Iran. US allies in the region are starting to realise the US will throw them under the bus for its own ends. Tankers (6), bulk cargo vessels (6) and other ships (4) are exiting the region, but most tankers are are heading to China, or in the Russian shadow fleet. Those who need insurance are holding back. But first, this week will feature the usual monthly real estate update releases later in the week, including for building consents. Plus the big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ. In Australia, the focus will be similar where we will be looking for early signs of housing market reactions from their new Budget settings. Elsewhere there will be important PMI updates from everywhere to give us indicators. In the US, their July 4 public holiday will happen on July 3 this year, so it will be a compressed week of labour market data there culminating in an early release of their June non-farm payrolls report when a +114,000 change is expected. In China, they say artificial intelligence is reshaping the global labour market not by triggering mass layoffs of existing workers but by causing employers to pull back on hirings for new, entry-level positions. China also reported industrial profits are recovering, up +21% in May from a year ago to ¥3.1 tln, and faster than the +18.8% rise for the first five months. The latest result reflects the ongoing AI investment boom and continued policy support for advanced industries despite lingering weakness in parts of the property-related sector. In the EU, an ECB survey revealed that median year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.5% in May, the lowest level in three months, down from 4.0% in each of the previous two months which were the highest readings since 2023. Longer-term inflation expectations were steady, at 2.9% for three years ahead. Consumers also expect house prices to rise by 3.6% over the next year, slightly below 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%. According to the World Meteorological Organization they are saying the severe heat dome over Europe is expected to continue affecting much of Western, Central, and Southern Europe over the next two weeks. There are likely to be economic impacts soon, and as the summer progresses these impacts may well affect economic activity in a material way. And the Bank of International Settlements said over the weekend global pressures from rising public debt to financial fragilities, and questions about the sustainability of the AI boom, are increasing systemic financial risks which they suspect could end in a bust. They warned of a complex mix of vulnerabilities, including strained fiscal positions, lingering supply shocks and the risk of a renewed bout of high and sticky inflation. In the US their merchandise trade balance worsened in May. Imports rose +3.6% while exports fell -5.4%. These were much larger shifts than were anticipated. Clearly tariffs aren't working other than making imports more expensive and hurting exports. The net result was a -US$103.5 bln deficit for May, the largest in a year. And their largest May deficit ever. And we should also note that US inventories are rising and quite quickly. In May, wholesale inventories were up +4.4% from a year ago, retail inventories up +3.1%. The stockpiling we noted in their PMI activity is adding deadweight to their logistics systems The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised up to 49.5 in June, although that was less of a revision higher than expected. Still, sentiment improved from May which was the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in petrol prices. And that is despite the fact they remain +31% higher than at the start of Trump's failed Iran adventure. But this didn't stop shoppers at Amazon's 'Prime Day' four-day shopping event. Prime Day 2026 was exclusively for Prime members and ran June 23-26. The wrap-up shows more than US$26 bln was spent in the period, up +9.3% from last year, and expected to be half related to inflation, half a volume gain. And in Australia, it seems that last week's auction results will show that they had their softest sales period in more than five years with many properties failing to sell. Also unfolding is the scale of mortgage fraud against banks by a surprisingly wide section of their mortgage broker community. To defend themselves, the banks are drawing up a black-list register so that brokers just don't go shopping around for vulnerabilities. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -12 bps for the week. The price of gold has risen to US$4089/oz, up a net +US$15/oz from Saturday. That is down -US$66/oz from a week ago. Silver is now under US$59/oz, down -US$5.50 for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$72/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$77.50 and US$80.50 respectively. Hormuz transits have eased off noticeably after the recent flare up in fighting with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, more than two thirds of the exiting vessels were headed to China, 9% were Russian-linked, 5% headed for Singapore 4% to South Korea. There are still hundreds (459) yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just on 56.4 USc, down -100 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.3 which is down -110 bps for the week, and still its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,497 and down -0.5% from this time Saturday, and down -5.1% from this time last week Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Bank of Japan Hikes Rates as Fed Weighs Future Inflation Expectations

war tips market iran investors treasuries managing principal expresses inflation expectations

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2026 8:15

Global movers take the attention of today's Big Picture panel. Charles Schwab's Michael Townsend turns his focus to the Strait of Hormuz and ways Washington is managing a tentative reopening if the U.S. and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding. Michelle Gibley offers perspective on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike to 1%, the highest in three decades. Both add color to how all of this plays into the Fed's big picture ahead of its interest rate decision. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

washington japan global bank iran ios fed rates big picture hike weighs strait hormuz charles schwab sling vizio bank of japan inflation expectations michael townsend market minute

Mike Ashton on How the Market Expresses Inflation Expectations

Simply Put

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2026 34:36

Investors often use inflation swaps and breakevens — the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and TIPS — to deduce market participants' inflation expectations. These measures also change from new TIPS issuance, shifting inflation risk, and a liquidity premium, however, making them imprecise gauges of estimates for future inflation. In this episode, we talk with Mike Ashton, Managing Principal at Enduring Investments, about how TIPS and swaps compensate investors for inflation, how closely they reflect inflation expectations, and what they tell us about expectations for the War in Iran. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial's Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what's moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Can Cooling Inflation Expectations Sustain The Market Rally?

GREY Journal Daily News Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2026 1:53

U.S. equity futures rose as inflation expectations cooled, signaling a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's rate path. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced while Dow futures were steady. Lower expected inflation can ease Treasury yields and support higher equity valuations. Founders may see improving loan pricing, more flexible supplier terms, and potential openings in capital markets. Federal Reserve officials continue to seek sustained evidence of progress before adjusting policy. Businesses are advised to refresh budgets and financing plans while watching upcoming data.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

founders businesses acast lower federal reserve treasury nasdaq sustain cooling dow market rally inflation expectations

Iran extracts Persian Gulf tolls

expectations inflation expectations

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2026 4:12

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that yesterday's renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran seem to have been paused. And financial markets are reacting as though this is something permanent, a deluded reading of even recent history. It is more an excuse to bet on higher equity prices again. Away from these irrational markets and after hitting a two and a half year high in April at 3.5%, American inflation expectations for one year ahead slipped back to 3.2% in May, according to the latest national New York Fed survey update. Given that April's actual inflation was recorded at 3.8%, this represents a sanguine view of what lies ahead. More broadly, the same survey shows that households expect their financial situation to deteriorate. It is not only households. In a focus on the SME sector, another national review found them deeply pessimistic about 2026 prospects. Across the Pacific in Japan, some top-line data out yesterday for the March quarter points to improving metrics. GDP came in with a +1.8% growth rate and better than expected (+1.3%). And bank lending data shot up in May, up +5.7% and easily exceeding the expansion of +5.4% in April from a year ago. In China, construction machinery sales were strong in May with excavator sales up +36% from year-ago levels as infrastructure projects gain momentum. Things are not so bright for car sales in China. Sales ‌dropped -22% from a year earlier to 1.53 million vehicles in May, the eighth consecutive monthly fall. Even EV sales fell (-5%). In Germany, they posted some negative factory order data for April. They were down -3.8% on an inflation adjusted basis from the previous month, but that came after a +4.5% rise on the same basis for March. From a year ago, also in real terms, German factory orders were up +1.6% in April. And factory sales didn't decline in April either. In the Persian Gulf, to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the transit trickle is still low but not zero. Only ten ships crossed in the past 24 hours. It has now been 100 days since the crisis began and it seems Iran is successfully tolling the Strait, according to maritime sources. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, up just +1 bp for the day. The price of gold will start today up +US$5 from yesterday at US$4333/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$68.50/oz. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$1. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at this time at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8 which is up +20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,416 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

ep 368 | Why inflation expectations are so important right now

On Point

Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2026 7:44

We've seen a lot of economic releases over the last several weeks, but the most important of all were probably the two that covered inflation expectations. It might sound odd that what people think might happen trumps what's actually happening across the economy, but right now that's very much the case. Expectations matter because they influence behaviour, and behaviour drives outcomes. That's especially so when it comes to inflation.

The 5% Yield Warning: What Bond Markets Are Telling Us

Market Maker

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2026 32:09

Bond yields are surging, with the US 30-year pushing 5% and UK yields near multi-decade highs but why does it matter?In this episode of the AmplifyME Market Maker Podcast, we explain how rising yields impact your mortgage, stock valuations, and the global economy. From the “risk-free rate” to inflation expectations and central bank policy, we break down the key drivers behind one of the most important forces in markets right now.Despite booming stock markets, bond markets are signalling risk. The question is: who's right?(00:00) Why Bond Yields Matter(03:00) The 5% Yield Level(06:06) Impact on Mortgages(07:48) Risk-Free Rate Explained(12:27) Stocks vs Bonds Disconnect(14:38) Inflation Expectations(16:58) Trading Opportunities(23:35) Stocks Rip Higher(25:36) S&P Earnings Growth(26:43) UK Political Risk

uk impact bond markets stocks mortgage yield bond market inflation expectations

Powell's Future & Inflation Expectations in Crosshairs of Fed Meeting

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2026 7:41

Christopher Hodge previews the Fed's interest rate decision expected Wednesday afternoon and how energy prices play into the committee's inflation projections. Another topic he's keeping in mind: Fed leadership, and whether Jerome Powell will stay on the FOMC as a governor once Kevin Warsh takes the gavel. Christopher adds that Warsh won't single-handedly make sweeping changes to the Fed.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

options ios fed powell jerome powell crosshairs sling fomc kevin warsh warsh vizio inflation expectations market minute

Fallout from oil price rises spreads

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2026 4:38

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of fractures emerging in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and of OPEC itself. But first up today there was a dairy Pulse auction, but this one bringing few changes from the prior week's full event. Prices for butter, SMP and WMP were little-changed. But the AMF price did fall -4.4% to its lowest of the year so far. In Australia, it is worth noting that bond markets are in full bear more. They have driven their AGB benchmark 10 year bond yield to a 15 year high (price to a 15 year low), and these movements are replicated across the whole maturity curve. Expectations are high that the RBA is about to tackle inflation head-on with purposeful monetary policy actions starting next week. And there is spillover to New Zealand benchmark rates too. In the US, their weekly ADP employment report signaled a third week of good payroll gains in the private sector. And the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment was marginally better than expected in April. Most aspects deteriorated in this latest survey, except the labour market conditions that the ADP signals have licked up. It was similar for the Richmond Fed's factory survey which was little-changed but with a hint of positiveness. And the Dallas Fed services survey was marginally less negative. Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April meeting overnight, leaving borrowing costs at their highest level since September 1995. The widely expected decision passed by a 6–3 vote, amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and surging energy prices. The three dissenters wanted a hike to 1.0%. In its quarterly outlook, the central bank raised its FY2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8% from 1.9%, citing higher crude oil prices that likely push up energy and goods costs. Overall, this review was more hawksih than expected. Korean manufacturing business sentiment rose in April to its highest since June 2024, with improvements across the board. India's industrial production is settling in with a growth rate of about 4%, the March level which it has been at (or above) for eight of the past nine months. In Europe, their has been a very big jump in inflation expectations. Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March in the latest ECB survey, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This was the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$83 at US$4599/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$100/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$2, and now at US$111/bbl. And the UAE announced overnight that it is quitting OPEC, chafing at the export restrictions the cartel uses to manipulate prices. Some wee this as the beginning of the end of OPEC. We should also probably note that a Japanese supertanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz - with Iran's permission and in defiance of the US blockade. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,178 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Rich Clarida on Navigating Monetary Policy in Choppy Waters

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2026 52:16

Rich Clarida was the vice chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and is currently a professor of economics at Columbia University and a managing director at PIMCO. Rich returns to the program to discuss whether we give the Fed too little credit for its soft landing, the problem of persistent inflation, how the Fed should respond to rapidly succeeding negative supply shocks, the case for nominal GDP, the state of the Fed's balance sheet, why a synthetic FOMC could help the real FOMC, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on March 31st, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:03:59 - Persistent Inflation 00:11:14 - Inflation Expectations 00:18:34 - Responding to Negative Supply Shocks 00:29:38 - Nominal GDP 00:34:59 - Fed's Balance Sheet 00:45:20 - Synthetic FOMCs 00:51:36 - Outro

navigating rich board responding columbia university waters fed gdp governors balance sheets monetary policy fomc choppy federal reserve system pimco inflation expectations clarida macro musings

Inflation Expectations Rise, AWS CEO, What's Behind Apple's Drop 4/7/26

CNBCâ€™s â€œMoney Moversâ€

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 7, 2026 43:24

The New York Fed out with new inflation expectation numbers, showing consumers inflation worries are growing. Then, the CEO of AWS on the company's investment in OpenAI and how the Iran war is impacting business, after several data centers were targeted. Plus, a look at what could be behind the big move lower in shares of Apple. All that on Money Movers. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

ceo apple drop iran openai aws simplecast new york fed inflation expectations

US leadership insanity deepens

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 7, 2026 5:46

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news most things are in abeyance until noon (NZT) when the latest Trump genocidal threats on Iran come to a head. Financial markets are waiting to see how this plays out. And of course the Strait of Hormuz is completely shut now. Commodity prices reflect that added pressure, fertiliser prices especially. But first today, the overnight dairy auction brought a headline decline of -3.4% in USD terms, but that is only a -0.8% in USD terms. But actually things were better than this because these changes are from the prior full auction result three weeks ago. Today's results area actually gains from last week's dairy Pulse events for most items, including both SMP and WMP. The big drop however came for butter (-8.1%) and Mozzarella (-6.2%), both items that don't feature at the Pulse events. So, overall, today's dairy event is really one where prices have stabilised over the past few weeks. This is so, even though global dairy markets seem well-supplied from many sources. In the US, their Logistics Managers Index has shot up in March to its highest since May 2022 in the pandemic. This is entirely due to a very sharp rise in freight costs, but a contraction in transportation capacity happened at the same time. Warehousing capacity contracted as well. PPI inflation is getting well embedded now. Meanwhile, the weekly ADP employment Pulse report delivered an unexpected +26,000 jobs gain last week, the most since this new tracking started. However, this was not supported by the latest (February) durable goods order report that fell much more than expected, down -1.4% from January and its third consecutive decline. That makes it just +0.8% higher than year-ago levels and well below the PPI inflation rate. And it was also not supported by the April update of the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey of 'economic optimism' which fell to its lowest level since June 2024. Meanwhile, US consumer inflation expectations jumped from 3.0% in February to 3.4% in March. This may not have been as r=high as you may have expected, but the survey period covered the whole month, so is likely restrained by early-month responses. China said its FX reserves fell -US$85 bln in March from February to US$3.34 tln, mainly due to changes in the USD:CNY exchange rate rather than an actual fall in reserves. It is a pullback from the all-time record high in February, back to levels that have generally prevailed since September 2025. Within this, their gold holding rose for a 17th consecutive month. In Australian, their Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a significant jump in monthly inflation for March, up +1.3% from February. This was primarily influenced by an increase in transport, attributable to surging fuel prices. In annual terms, headline inflation reached +4.3% and has been at above the top-end of the 2–3% RBA target band for the past seven months. The monthly cost of living also increased in March, particularly for self-funded retirees. The Australian service sector fell into contraction in March. It was a sharp fall from the February expansion. A drop in new orders and turbulent international conditions as a result of the war in the Middle East were the main reasons behind the fall in output. Making it hurt harder, inflationary pressures intensified. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain pressure index is rising, with the March result its highest since January 2023, although to be fair, so far the rises from May 2023 have all be quite gradual. Things could change quickly on that front, of course. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today back up +US$24 at US$4676/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at US$72/oz. American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$115/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just under US$110/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time at 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we have dropped -50 bps however to 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just on 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -15 bps from yesterday at just under 60.9. The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,728 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%. Join us at 2pm this afternoon when the RBNZ is release its latest OCR review. While not rate change is expected, commentary on how they see the current oil crisis playing out with inflation will bring intense interest. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Oil up, equities down, quagmire deeper

CNBCâ€™s â€œMoney Moversâ€

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 12, 2026 4:27

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of oil jumping while equities slide as surging crude prices stoke inflation ‌fears. Oil tankers are ablaze. Iran said it will keep the Straits of Hormuz closed and there doesn't seem much Trump can or will do about that. And the Gulf crisis is severely disrupting global air travel. Meanwhile the IEA says "The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." (OPEC however seems to be ignoring the folly.) In the US, jobless claims were little-changed last week at the headline level, the small actual decrease accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now 2.15 mln people on these benefits, very similar to a year ago but a big increase from two years ago US housing starts rose in February, just as they did in the same month a year ago and to the same levels. US exports and imports eased slightly lower in January. Their overall trade deficit fell to -US$ bln in the month largely because services exports rose. From a year ago their deficit is +-US$75 bln lower (-0.2% of GDP.) Canadian exports fell and their trade surplus with the US narrowed in January while the deficit with other countries widened. They reported a January trade deficit of -C3.7 bln mostly due to fewer car exports to the US. India reported CPI inflation of 3.2% for February, up from 2.7% in January and that takes it back to levels they had in April 2025. In Australia, inflation expectations ticked up further in the March Melbourne Institute survey, up to 5.2% for the year ahead. While this is 'only' a rise from the 5.0% rate in February, it is the highest looking-ahead level this survey has reported since January 2023, and is a significant rise from the 3.6% rate in March 2025. It only adds fuel to the expectations the RBA will hike next week at its review on March 17. Aussie equities fell, benchmark AGB yields rose further, and they were rising even before this news broke. And in the upcoming Australian budget, talk is they will assume CPI inflation in the "high 4s" for the year ahead Global container freight rates rose +8% last week to be now only -10% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound China to the EU was up +19%, to the US West Coast up just +4%. Rates to China fell. Bulk cargo rates fell -14% in the past week as demand dried up. From a year ago these rates are now +36% higher, although the base was weak in 2025. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26%, up +5 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$52 from yesterday at US$5119/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$85/oz today. American oil prices are on the move up and by the time you hear this they will likely be over US$100/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain essentially closed, the situation even worse now. The internationally coordinated release of strategic reserves has had essentially no effect. The Kiwi dollar has slid another -50 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 58.6 USc. But against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.7 AUc. We are down -60 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 550.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -40 bps at just over 62.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,437 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

NY Fed Inflation Expectations, Market Bounces Off Lows as Oil Spikes, Jet Fuel Impact on Travel 3/9/26

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 42:22

Breaking this hour: the New York Fed releases its survey of consumer inflation expectations for the month of February. Then Goldman's co-head of global commodities breaks down the outlook for oil prices, with the war in Iran showing no end in sight. Plus, how a prolonged spike in jet fuel prices could impact the airline industry and production of planes. The Airbus North America CEO joins the show. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

travel market iran lows simplecast spikes bounces jet fuel new york fed inflation expectations ny fed

Can politicians cover the Iran crisis cracks?

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 5:30

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are unsure about whether public efforts to calm the financial consequences of the war on Iran will work. Just at the moment, it's a wait-and-see situation. But first in the US, the latest inflation expectations survey for February is out, revealing very little change. In the absence of subsequent events this stability might have seemed 'positive', but it is now only of historical note. More currently, across the US, there are sharp rises in petrol prices. Those were responding to US$90/bbl crude prices. They are now up from there. Meanwhile, we should probably note that there is a partial US shutdown underway. Among other impacts, security screening staff at airports are in layoff, not being paid. That is making travel in and through the US particularly messy. Across the Pacific, Taiwanese exports fell in February to 'only' US$50 bln in the month, and up only +20.6% from the same month a year ago. But much of this can be explained by how the Chinese New Year holiday occurred this year, China's CPI inflation rate jumped +1.0% in February from January to be up +1.3% from February a year ago. That takes them to a three year high. These were much sharper rises than expected and rises were expected. If both the US and China are now in a sharp-rising inflation period (and this data preceded the Iran crisis), then there is little chance New Zealand will be avoiding this pressure. Their beef prices are up +9.6% from a year ago, lamb prices up +6.6%. (Dairy prices there are down -1.1% on the same basis however.) Now of course, an oil shock is likely to juice their inflation with a new burst. Meanwhile China's producer price pressure eased in February, down just -0.9% from a year ago after their third [small] consecutive rise in month-on-month. Oil prices here will have an even larger impact. Japan's leading economic index, which gauges the outlook for the months ahead using indicators such as job offers and consumer sentiment, rose in January to its highest level since July 2022, confirming their improving economic outlook. And here's something we don't normally look at. Business is picking up in Japan, enough that there is a notable rise in overtime pay there, the most since 2022. In Europe, German factory orders slumped -11.1% in January from December, far worse than market expectations for a -4.3% drop. And December was downwardly revised as well. It was the first decline since August, largely driven by a -39% plunge in fabricated metal products after large orders in the prior month created a high base. Demand also weakened for machinery and equipment. However, from a year ago, German factory orders were up +3.7% in January. (All this German data is inflation-adjusted.) In Australia, Commonwealth Bank has reported two mortgage brokers and a string of accountants to police as it works to unravel a gigantic loan fraud using fake documents and international funds that could extend to AU$1 bln, the AFR is reporting. On the commodities front, the big overnight mover is sulphur, a key fertiliser ingredient, up another 6%, and which has now doubled from a year ago. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.12%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$69 from yesterday at US$5103/oz. Silver is little-changed however at US$84.50/oz today. American oil prices are up +US$3, at just under US$94/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$6 to be now just on US$99/bbl. In between they have been very volatile, at one point reaching US$116/bbl. Relative calm came after G7 ministers started discussing releasing some strategic oil reserves. But there is no agreement or action on that yet, only 'possibilities'. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 84 AUc. We are up +50 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +20 bps at just over 62.9. The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,073 and up +3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

KG on Falling Inflation Expectations, SPX Targets & CapEx Concerns

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 7:15

The latest consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan showed a notable downtick for inflation expectations, something Kevin Green points to as a positive. As for the broader market moves, KG labels 6,930 as the key level for bulls to reach to retake control of price action. He later talks about investor reluctance to Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon's (AMZN) gargantuan CapEx spending projections and concerns around a lack of free cash flow. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

university amazon michigan concerns options falling ios targets kg capex sling vizio amzn inflation expectations kevin green market minute

How To Position In A "Slowdown" Regime | Market Radar

market explore investing invest position hosts slow down radar regime economic outlook debasement inflation expectations

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 51:33

In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar's models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) Risk-Off Pivot (07:28) Unpacking System Triggers (12:26) Grayscale Ad (13:05) Regime Map: Growth vs Inflation Impulses (17:13) Inflation Expectations (23:02) Debasement & K-Shaped Economy (25:17) Finding Signal From Conflicting Inputs (32:17) Grayscale Ad (33:04) The Right Way To Think About Liquidity (40:36) 2026 Rate Cut Predictions (47:46) Economic Outlook & Being Systematic (50:49) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

New Inflation Expectations Data, Former Netflix Exec on Paramount's WBD Bid, Apple's Executive Exodus 12/8/25

CNBCâ€™s â€œMoney Moversâ€

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2025 43:41

Breaking this hour: the NY Fed releasing new inflation expectations data and some new numbers surrounding the jobs market, showing improving sentiment. Then a former Netflix and Hulu executive weighs in on Paramount Skydance's hostile bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. And new reports over the weekend saying another top Apple executive could be looking to leave. A look at Apple's changing the leadership. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

netflix apple data executives exodus hulu paramount simplecast warner bros discovery inflation expectations ny fed

Inflation expectations need to come down

The Financial Exchange Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2025 38:29 Transcription Available

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss inflation expectations needing to come down. Has Argentina really learned their lesson? We'll find out soon. Beef! It's what might be no more dinner as prices rise rapidly. Intel surges after first earnings report post government investment. Paul LaMonica (Barron's) joins the show to chat about Microsoft's upcoming earnings.

microsoft beef intel come down inflation expectations mike armstrong

10.8.25 Zombieland; BOKF's Chris Maloney on Agency MBS; Inflation Expectations

Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2025 29:18 Transcription Available

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at how the market is being given direction with the government shutdown. Plus, Robbie sits down with Bank of Oklahoma's Chris Maloney for a discussion on what's driving strong performance in the Agency MBS market, the outlook for refinancing and home prices, and how Fed rate cuts are shaping lending conditions and future risks. And we close by looking ahead to the Minutes of the September FOMC meeting.Thank you to Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50% cost savings with an industry leading 75% completion rate.

bank oklahoma agency fed zombieland inflation expectations bokf chris maloney

Inflation expectations, tech valuations, healthcare opportunities

Investing Experts

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2025 36:01

Why Michael Kramer from Mott Capital Management and Reading The Markets is focused on Fed dot plot and BOJ meeting (0:30). What happens with inflation expectations? (6:15) AI hype, tech stock valuations (9:00). Undervalued names in healthcare (25:30). Metrics for different stocks and sectors and long-term themes (27:50).Show Notes:Federal Reserve lowers rate by 25 basis points, first cut since DecemberFed Cuts And BoJ Hikes Could Finally Break The Yen Carry TradeMagnificent 7 Now The Troubling 3, Underscores Market WeaknessThe Bond Market Is On A Collision Course With StagflationEpisode transcriptsFor full access to analyst ratings, stock and ETF quant scores, and dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions

amazon ai china opportunities tech healthcare economy inflation fed stocks nvidia metrics valuations etf united healthcare undervalued boj zoetis inflation expectations

Would A Fed Rate Cut Matter? | Employment Revised Lower | Gold Reaches ATH | Inflation Expectations Drop | Largest 1-Day Single Stock Moves Higher

Broken Pie Chart

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2025 53:58

Derek Moore, Shane Skinner, and Mike Snyder team up to discuss whether a Fed rate cut matters as much as people seem to think, especially given that most people have mortgages locked in lower. Plus, reviewing the revised lower employment numbers and whether the economy is truly slowing. ORCL moved 40% higher at one point in a single day, but what other large companies have moved that much? Later, based on U-Mich surveys, inflation expectations are dropping while Gold reaches a new all-time high even on an inflation adjusted basis. All this and more this week. ORCL single day move vs Volkswagen in 2008 University of Michigan inflation expectations survey Employment revisions Gold price vs Gold Mining Stocks Fed rate cuts are coming but what does it mean for housing? Bond PE ratios Market expectations for Fed Funds dip below 3% by end of 2026 Distribution of outstanding 30-year conventional mortgage borrower interest rates Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Would A Fed Rate Cut Matter? | Employment Revised Lower | Gold Reaches ATH | Inflation Expectations Drop | Largest 1-Day Single Stock Moves Higher

Broken Pie Chart

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2025 52:32

Geopolitics, US Inflation Expectations, and Bitcoin Surge: PALvatar Market Recap, August 11 2025

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2025 5:39

Threat to Fed Independence is Un-Anchoring Inflation Expectations | Jens Nordvig

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2025 57:02

In this episode, PhD Economist Jens Nordvig breaks down the evolving macro environment marked by waning Fed independence, shifting capital flows, and a weakening U.S. dollar. He explains how tariff shocks, long-end bond dynamics, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping global investment behavior and challenging the traditional safe-haven role of U.S. assets. Jens also outlines the structural phases of de-dollarization, central bank reserve diversification, and how these factors may signal a long-term dollar downtrend. Enjoy! __ Follow Jens: https://x.com/jnordvig Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network's bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:38) Bitcoin's Quantum Threat (07:18) Presidio Conference (10:27) Quantum Resistant Solutions (11:08) Ledn Ad (11:45) Quantum Resistant Solutions (17:14) Jameson's Proposal (23:21) What If You're In A Coma? (25:00) Ledn (25:45) Proposal Feedback (27:20) Quantum Mining (29:59) How Fast Is A Quantum Hack? (32:15) The Quantum Plan (33:41) How To Protect Your Funds? (35:39) Bitcoin Layers 2s (37:43) Core vs Knots (42:01) Is Bitcoin Progressing? (45:16) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

bitcoin threats hosts independence echo fed proposal jens anchoring knots aptos vaneck ledn inflation expectations 270m london october jens nordvig

6-11-25 CPI Day - Will Inflation Hold Steady?

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2025 46:17

Today is CPI Day, and all eyes are on the Consumer Price Index report for May. What will today's CPI data mean for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and future market volatility? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff examine the implications for stocks, bonds, and consumer sentiment. Lance questions the data the government is providing, and examines the Small Caps' performance of late. What will be the impact of tariffs on CPI? Why now is a "normal" interest rate environment. Nobody cares about economic date revisions. Danny tackles the question of whether you should disclaim a $5-Million inheritance; hilarity ensues with an anecdote about Lance's son's request for money. No. Impossible Meat goes "Flexitarian;" more hilarity ensues. Danny & Lance discuss the sticky wicket of stock and land inheritances; CPI preview: No expectation of a hot print. SEG-1: What Difference Does a One-Tenth Percent Inflation Make? SEG-2: Inflation Expectations vs Real Life SEG-3: Should You Disclaim an Inheritance? SEG-4a: Beyond Meat & Flexitarian's SEG-4b: Land Inheritances & Liquidity Issues SEG-4c: CPI Preview RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SOCvadsj58&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=3&t=1s ------- Articles mention in this show: "Private Equity – Why Am I So Lucky?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/private-equity-why-am-i-so-lucky/ "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/does-consumer-spending-drive-earnings-growth/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Small Caps on a Tear...but," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaVrimYakns&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Private Equity is Coming for Your Money," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5pY32IgCBY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=152s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MayCPI #InflationWatch #CPI2025 #MarketRally #SmallCapStocks #Russell2000 #TakeProfits #ReduceRisk #SlowingEconomy #ImpossibleMeat #Flexitarian #StockInheritance #EstatePlanning #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

register inflation inheritance federal reserve cio private equity tear cpi beyond meat your money consumer price index small caps hold steady flexitarian inflation expectations lance roberts real investment show therealinvestmentshow visit

6-11-25 CPI Day - Will Inflation Hold Steady?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2025 46:18

Today is CPI Day, and all eyes are on the Consumer Price Index report for May. What will today's CPI data mean for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and future market volatility? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff examine the implications for stocks, bonds, and consumer sentiment. Lance questions the data the government is providing, and examines the Small Caps' performance of late. What will be the impact of tariffs on CPI? Why now is a "normal" interest rate environment. Nobdy cares about economic date revisions. Danny tackles the question of whether you should disclaim a $5-Million inheritance; hilarity ensues with an anecdote about Lance's son's request for money. No. Impossible Meat goes "Flexitarian;" more hilarity ensues. Danny & Lance discuss the sticky wicket of stock and land inheritances; CPI preview: No expectation of a hot print. SEG-1: What Difference Does a One-Tenth Percent Inflation Make? SEG-2: Inflation Expectations vs Real Life SEG-3: Should You Disclaim an Inheritance? SEG-4a: Beyond Meat & Flexitarian's SEG-4b: Land Inheritances & Liquidity Issues SEG-4c: CPI Preview RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SOCvadsj58&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=3&t=1s ------- Articles mention in this show: "Private Equity – Why Am I So Lucky?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/private-equity-why-am-i-so-lucky/ "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/does-consumer-spending-drive-earnings-growth/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Small Caps on a Tear...but," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaVrimYakns&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Private Equity is Coming for Your Money," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5pY32IgCBY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=152s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MayCPI #InflationWatch #CPI2025 #MarketRally #SmallCapStocks #Russell2000 #TakeProfits #ReduceRisk #SlowingEconomy #ImpossibleMeat #Flexitarian #StockInheritance #EstatePlanning #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

register inflation inheritance federal reserve cio private equity tear cpi your money consumer price index small caps hold steady flexitarian inflation expectations real investment show therealinvestmentshow visit

5.14.25 M&A Activity; Hometap's Josh Gaffney on Home Equity Investments; Inflation Expectations

Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News

Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2025 18:43 Transcription Available

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at the latest M&A activity in the mortgage industry. Plus, Robbie sits down with Hometap's Josh Gaffney to discuss the evolving regulatory landscape for Home Equity Investments (HEIs), highlighting state-by-state approaches, industry-led initiatives, and what an ideal regulatory framework could look like as the market matures. And we reveal what the latest Consumer Price Index says about inflation as a whole.Thanks to today's podcast sponsor, TRUE and its Mortgage Operations Service (MOS) AI background worker, which transforms borrower documents into instant, trustworthy data for real-time decisioning. TRUE helps lenders accelerate decisions, cut costs, and deliver a superior borrower experience, all without a $100M tech budget.

activity 100m gaffney consumer price index home equity inflation expectations equity investments

New York Fed President John Williams Talks Anchoring Inflation Expectations

Bloomberg Talks

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2025 11:11 Transcription Available

New York Fed President John Williams said keeping inflation expectations anchored near policymakers’ target forms the “bedrock” of central banking while speaking with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua at the Reykjavik Economic Conference.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

bloomberg john williams anchoring new york fed inflation expectations

Trump's Tariffs Will Make China Great Again - Ep 1025

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 64:25

Peter Schiff analyzes the Federal Reserve's unchanged rates, critiques Trump's economic claims, and predicts the fallout from current trade policies.Sponsored by NetSuite. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff critically analyzes the Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, highlighting Powell's inconsistent views on inflation expectations and economic conditions. Schiff also discusses President Trump's silence on Powell's statements and questions the efficacy of trade talks with China, predicting a looming economic disappointment. He continues by scrutinizing Trump's contradictory claims regarding improving trade deficits and the misguided reliance on tariffs. Schiff emphasizes the inevitable economic consequences of current policies and suggests strategic financial adjustments, such as investing in foreign currencies and gold, to brace for impending stagflation and market instability. As always, Schiff echoes his critical stance on governmental and economic mismanagement while providing expert financial advice to his listeners.

tiktok ai donald trump china guide gold silence investing conclusion silver secretary cfo fed powell tariffs machine learning warren buffett federal reserve treasury schiff market updates netsuite goldin peter schiff vanta inflation expectations deficit spending free reports

Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup

investing economics signal separating cfa market trends bond market inflation expectations first trust

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 25, 2025 76:19

This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we're seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Beware the Doom Loop (13:21) Ondo Ad (13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization? (16:15) Dollar & Bonds (23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop (25:06) Real Rates & Inflation (31:48) Ondo Ad (32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored (38:13) Trading The Current Regime (47:24) Gold Market (49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets (55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth? (59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem (09:30) What Will the Fed Do? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

inflation dollar fed bonds defi normalization weekly roundup what will ondo inflation expectations gold market unanchored

Separating Signal From Noise (with Rob!)

Cognitive Dissidents

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2025 53:52

American Airlines can't keep Jacob down – he makes time to connect with Rob Larity to do an episode on the market chaos of the week. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Travel Woes(01:09) - Ranting About American Airlines(02:21) - Catching Up with Rob(03:06) - Market Volatility and Tariffs(04:34) - Financial Crisis vs. Current Situation(07:42) - Uncertainty in the Market(08:48) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade War(13:11) - Bond Yields and Inflation Expectations(20:20) - Dollar Weakness and Global Capital(22:46) - Historical Context and Globalization(26:24) - Trump's Desire for a Deal with China(27:29) - US-China Economic Interdependence(31:03) - Challenges in International Investment(33:42) - Inflation and Economic Uncertainty(37:16) - Corporate Responses to Tariffs(42:54) - Impact on Small and Medium Businesses(47:23) - Geopolitical and Economic Outlook(52:19) - Closing Remarks and Future Plans--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Ep 42 | Separating the Signal from the Noise in the Bond Market | ROI Podcast

First Trust ROI Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 7, 2025 34:43 Transcription Available

Bill Housey explores how fixed income investors can navigate rising uncertainty—from trade policies to inflation and beyond—in this deep dive into the bond market's shifting dynamics.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Subscribe Here to the ROI Podcast & other First Trust Market News Website: First Trust PortfoliosConnect with us on LinkedIn: First Trust LinkedInFollow us on X: First Trust on XSubscribe to the First Trust YouTube ChannelSubscribe to the ROI Podcast YouTube Channel

The Week in Markets: Tariffs weigh on the economy and the market

Beyond Markets

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2025 10:04

New tariffs will surely lead to a rise in inflation, as will the oil price, if Iran ignores Trump's ultimatum to a new nuclear deal. With inflation expected to stay high, we look for only one rate cut this year, and think 2026 will be an easier year to cut rates. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is technically weak, having broken its March low. It is heavily weighted toward the champions of Artificial Intelligence that have driven the bull market of the past five years. The consensus forecast for 2025 S&P 500 index EPS growth that was over 13% in February, is below 10% today. But since World War 2, April has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P, and in the years when the S&P fell by 3% or more in March, April had an average gain of 6%.

donald trump iran artificial intelligence economy markets recession rates oil tariffs world war weigh eps gdp growth s&p500 inflation expectations

The U.S. Debt Crisis: Why Growth Is the Only Solution | Mohamed El-Erian Pt. 2 LIVE @ DAS

europe growth expectations bitcoin solution fed tariffs stablecoins digital assets qt debt crisis mohamed el erian inflation expectations

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2025 39:43

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss his Fed & QT expectations, his outlook for inflation, and the four ways the government can solve its debt problem. We also delve into stablecoins buying US debt, Bitcoin's potential as a neutral reserve asset for global trade, the sputnik moment in Europe, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mohamed El-Erian: https://x.com/elerianm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Expectations for the Fed (02:47) Inflation Expectations (09:38) Ledger Ad (10:25) Tariffs & Growth (13:20) Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Policies (22:31) Stablecoins and Digital Assets (25:12) Ledger Ad (28:31) Bitcoin as a Neutral Reserve Asset (33:00) Europe's Sputnik Moment (37:39) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Market Leads The Economy—And It's Heading Down | Weekly Roundup