Podcasts about inflation expectations

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news incoherent trade policies have driven the US dollar to its lowest level since 2022 as markets don't see any easing of geopolitical risks driven out of Washington. The US said it will set unilateral tariff rates on most trading partners at the end of the month.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims came in at 245,000 last week, little-changed from the prior week. This embeds the recent higher level and extends the 2025 rising trend. We haven't seen two consecutive high-claims weeks since mid 2023. There are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits, +7.1 more than year-ago levels.The immigration crackdown on undocumented farm and hospitality workers is having ripple impacts on corporate America, with some major brands reporting stuttering sales.And the Congressional Budget Office has set out how the Trump Budget Bill will hurt middle and poor Americans, and enrich wealthy ones. It is a report sure to annoy the President.And he is already annoyed by the Fed not cutting interest rates.Separately, as analysts expected, US producer prices came in +2.6% higher in May than a year ago.The UST 30yr bond auction today saw a -7.5% fall in investor demand, mirroring the -10% drop in support we noted yesterday in the UST 10yr auction. The median yield came in at 4.80%, up from the 4.75% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Elsewhere, India's CPI inflation fell to 2.8% in May from 3.2% in April and dipping below analyst expectations of 3%. This is their lowest reading since February 2019, so a six year low. It is also getting closer to the bottom of their central bank's inflation target range of 2%-6%. Food price rises fell to the lowest level since October 2021, and drove the easing.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute survey for June shows inflation expectations there rising to 5.0%, the highest level since July 2023 and up sharply from the 4.1% in May.International container freight rates were unchanged last week from the prior week to now be -26% lower than year-ago levels. A year ago rates were in a strong rising trend which lasted until July, then they eased steadily until May 2025. Bulk freight rates rose +6.8% last week from the week before to their highest level since early November. They are now -5.2% lower than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.36%, and down -6 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,383/oz, and up +US$60 from yesterday.American oil prices are up another +US$1.50 at just over US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just over 60.6 USc, up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at under 68.3 and essentially unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,419 and down -0.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Today is CPI Day, and all eyes are on the Consumer Price Index report for May. What will today's CPI data mean for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and future market volatility? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff examine the implications for stocks, bonds, and consumer sentiment. Lance questions the data the government is providing, and examines the Small Caps' performance of late. What will be the impact of tariffs on CPI? Why now is a "normal" interest rate environment. Nobody cares about economic date revisions. Danny tackles the question of whether you should disclaim a $5-Million inheritance; hilarity ensues with an anecdote about Lance's son's request for money. No. Impossible Meat goes "Flexitarian;" more hilarity ensues. Danny & Lance discuss the sticky wicket of stock and land inheritances; CPI preview: No expectation of a hot print. SEG-1: What Difference Does a One-Tenth Percent Inflation Make? SEG-2: Inflation Expectations vs Real Life SEG-3: Should You Disclaim an Inheritance? SEG-4a: Beyond Meat & Flexitarian's SEG-4b: Land Inheritances & Liquidity Issues SEG-4c: CPI Preview RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SOCvadsj58&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=3&t=1s ------- Articles mention in this show: "Private Equity – Why Am I So Lucky?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/private-equity-why-am-i-so-lucky/ "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/does-consumer-spending-drive-earnings-growth/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Small Caps on a Tear...but," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaVrimYakns&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Private Equity is Coming for Your Money," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5pY32IgCBY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=152s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MayCPI #InflationWatch #CPI2025 #MarketRally #SmallCapStocks #Russell2000 #TakeProfits #ReduceRisk #SlowingEconomy #ImpossibleMeat #Flexitarian #StockInheritance #EstatePlanning #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Today is CPI Day, and all eyes are on the Consumer Price Index report for May.  What will today's CPI data mean for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and future market volatility? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff examine the implications for stocks, bonds, and consumer sentiment. Lance questions the data the government is providing, and examines the Small Caps' performance of late. What will be the impact of tariffs on CPI? Why now is a "normal" interest rate environment. Nobdy cares about economic date revisions. Danny tackles the question of whether you should disclaim a $5-Million inheritance; hilarity ensues with an anecdote about Lance's son's request for money. No. Impossible Meat goes "Flexitarian;" more hilarity ensues. Danny & Lance discuss the sticky wicket of stock and land inheritances; CPI preview: No expectation of a hot print. SEG-1: What Difference Does a One-Tenth Percent Inflation Make? SEG-2: Inflation Expectations vs Real Life SEG-3: Should You Disclaim an Inheritance? SEG-4a: Beyond Meat & Flexitarian's SEG-4b: Land Inheritances & Liquidity Issues SEG-4c: CPI Preview RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SOCvadsj58&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=3&t=1s ------- Articles mention in this show: "Private Equity – Why Am I So Lucky?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/private-equity-why-am-i-so-lucky/ "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/does-consumer-spending-drive-earnings-growth/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Small Caps on a Tear...but," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaVrimYakns&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Our previous show is here: "Private Equity is Coming for Your Money," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5pY32IgCBY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=152s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MayCPI #InflationWatch #CPI2025 #MarketRally #SmallCapStocks #Russell2000 #TakeProfits #ReduceRisk #SlowingEconomy #ImpossibleMeat #Flexitarian #StockInheritance #EstatePlanning #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

U.S. inflation expectations are not contained despite officials assurances to the contrary, which means inflation could quickly resume rising and climb above 4% before the end of the year, says Berkeley economist and SF Fed adviser Yuriy Gorodnichenko, who recently presented a paper at the Fed Board's 2nd Thomas Laubach conference. This will put a Fed in a bind that not only prevents them from cutting interest rates but my even force them to hike, he told MNI.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US and China are meeting in London to discuss China's block on exports of rare earth minerals that the US manufacturing sector needs. The hope is that the settlement will have the US pull back from its tariff-tax war. More likely, it will be a trade of US AI chips for Chinese rare earth minerals.In the background, the dismantling of civil society and the rule of law continues in the US, but you will have to get news of those overnight events elsewhere - even though they will have a corrosive impact on commerce.Our first item in the US is that consumer inflation expectations fell back in June to 3.2% for the year ahead, which wasn't what was expected. But a look at the components explains why. It was driven by the expectation that petrol prices will drop - on a weakening economy. On the other hand those surveyed expected food prices to rise to 5.5% which is a two year high, rents by 8.4%. The expectation that their jobless rate will rise remained high.And we should probably point out that analysts are noting that the UST 10 year yield (4.5%) is now well above the US nominal GDP growth rate (3.8%) for the fits time since 2011, and that is seen as a signal that corporate insolvencies will now rise noticeably after a long period of relative stability.China said its CPI price change held at -0.1% of deflation. That is the third month in a rose it has reported that, the fourth recording deflation. It does seem odd, and a tad unlikely, that Chinese consumer prices are consistently deflating at such a low level. Anecdotal observations talk of 'raging price wars'. According to the official data these are having zero impact. Year-on-year they say beef prices are down -0.1%, lamb prices are down -2.8% and milk prices are -1.5% lower. But beef prices did rise in May from April, according to this data.Meanwhile Chinese producer prices deflated more, down -3.3% from a year ago to their fastest rate of decline since July 2023.And China booked another bumper trade surplus in May. Exports rose +4.8% (about what was expected but historically low), while imports fell -3.4% and far more than expected. They benefited from the TACO trade in May. Their surplus with the US was +US$18 bln for the month although they did export less and import more. To New Zealand, they exported -3% less but imported +11% more, so our surplus rose. To Australia, their exports were little-changed but they imported almost -19% less in May.In Taiwan, they far outshone their neighbour and rival with a huge rise in exports (a new record high) and a large rise in imports from the same month a year ago. That contributed to a trade surplus of +US$12.6 bln in the month, now one eighth that of China even though their economy is only one twentieth as large.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49%, and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,334/oz, and up +US$26 from yesterday.American oil prices are firmish, up +50 USc at just on US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is just under US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.5 USc, and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at over 68.4 and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,312 and up +1.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

It's good news for the manufacturing sector. Business BNZ performance of manufacturing index shows an upward of 0.7 points. JMI Wealth Spokesperson Andrew Kelleher says it's a strong indicator that recovery is underway for manufacturing. LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at the latest M&A activity in the mortgage industry. Plus, Robbie sits down with Hometap's Josh Gaffney to discuss the evolving regulatory landscape for Home Equity Investments (HEIs), highlighting state-by-state approaches, industry-led initiatives, and what an ideal regulatory framework could look like as the market matures. And we reveal what the latest Consumer Price Index says about inflation as a whole.Thanks to today's podcast sponsor, TRUE and its Mortgage Operations Service (MOS) AI background worker, which transforms borrower documents into instant, trustworthy data for real-time decisioning. TRUE helps lenders accelerate decisions, cut costs, and deliver a superior borrower experience, all without a $100M tech budget. 

New York Fed President John Williams said keeping inflation expectations anchored near policymakers’ target forms the “bedrock” of central banking while speaking with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua at the Reykjavik Economic Conference.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Schiff analyzes the Federal Reserve's unchanged rates, critiques Trump's economic claims, and predicts the fallout from current trade policies.Sponsored by NetSuite. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff critically analyzes the Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, highlighting Powell's inconsistent views on inflation expectations and economic conditions. Schiff also discusses President Trump's silence on Powell's statements and questions the efficacy of trade talks with China, predicting a looming economic disappointment. He continues by scrutinizing Trump's contradictory claims regarding improving trade deficits and the misguided reliance on tariffs. Schiff emphasizes the inevitable economic consequences of current policies and suggests strategic financial adjustments, such as investing in foreign currencies and gold, to brace for impending stagflation and market instability. As always, Schiff echoes his critical stance on governmental and economic mismanagement while providing expert financial advice to his listeners.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Fed looks more trapped in policy choices than it has for a long time.But first up today, a US-UK trade deal was announced to great fanfare. But in fact it isn't much. Rather it is a small set of carve-outs from the previous base case: Car tariffs on British-made cars would come in at 10% rather than 27.5%, steel tariffs would go to zero and the threat of future pharmaceutical tariffs would recede. The overall headline US tariff of 10% seems to still be in place; the UK has offered more market access to the US and a Boeing airplane order. But the US did not get changes on food standards or the UK's digital services taxation. The whole thing is very underwhelming. All headlines, no substance.But the equity markets liked it, even if the bond markets didn't. The USD rose on the news. Perhaps the equity markets also see progress coming in tomorrow's Swiss meeting between China and US representatives?Meanwhile, US jobless claims fell last week and by a bit more than seasonal factors would have assumed, coming in right at the level expected by analysts. There are now 1.846 mln people on these benefits, whereas a year ago there were 1.743 mln on them, a +5.9% rise.American labour productivity fell -0.8 in the March 2025 quarter as output decreased -0.3% and hours worked increased +0.6%. It is their first decrease in productivity since the volatile pandemic years, and prior to that, the first Trump presidency.March wholesale inventories rose marginally (+0.4%) but so did sales in the pre-tariff rush, so the inventory-to-sales balance was little-changed and not exhibiting any stress.Also not changing much were American inflation expectations in April, which isn't as sanguine as it sounds because they came in at the same elevated 3.6% level they jumped to in March. However, households' perceptions about their current financial situations deteriorated, with the share of consumers reporting that they are somewhat or much worse off compared to one year ago increasing. Similarly, households' expectations about their future financial situations deteriorated, with the share of those believing they will be somewhat or much worse off a year from now also rising.In Malaysia, their central bank held its policy rate at 3% overnight, as was expected. They have low inflation, 1.4%, and a good +4.4% economic expansion but one that is fading. And they are vulnerable to the tariff war. In the meantime, Malaysian industrial production is still expanding at a healthy clip.In Europe, German industrial production is on the come-back up +3.0% in March from February, and for the first time since May 2023, hardly lower than year-ago levels. Of course, this is data that predates the onset of the US tariff war.In England, their central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25%, also as expected. But two of their nine members voted for no change. It is their fourth rate cut since August 2023, when their rate reached 5.25% in the previous cycle. They currently have a 2.6% inflation rate, slowly easing, and a +1.4% economic expansion rate.With the Bank of England following the ECB down, along with Canada, soon Australia, and likely New Zealand, it does point out that the US Fed is now boxed in by US fiscal policy, basically unable to cut rates there because of the immediate inflation risks.In Australia, they changed their laws making it clearer that buy-now-pay-later contracts are covered by their National Credit Code (which is Schedule 1 to their National Credit Act). ASIC has now issued regulatory guidance for the BNPL sector.We should probably note that lithium prices have fallen further, with the bubble well and truly over, and prices back to their pre-bubble 2021 levelsThe reduction impetus is going out of global container freight rate changes, down just -1% last week to be -23% lower than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates stopped rising in the past week.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.37%, up +10 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3303/oz, and down -US$81 from yesterday.Oil prices are firmer today, up +US$1.50 at just under US$60/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.1 USc, down -60 bps from yesterday at this time, down a full -1c from Wednesday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.6 and down another -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$101,054 and up +4.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 3.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Bob talks about the conflicting signals that forecast an uncertain future. 

This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we're seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Beware the Doom Loop (13:21) Ondo Ad (13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization? (16:15) Dollar & Bonds (23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop (25:06) Real Rates & Inflation (31:48) Ondo Ad (32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored (38:13) Trading The Current Regime (47:24) Gold Market (49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets (55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth? (59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem (09:30) What Will the Fed Do? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Consumer confidence has gone back up - but new data indicates people are also worried about inflation. The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey shows consumer confidence rose 5 points to 98.3 in April - but inflation expectations soared 0.5pts to 4.7 percent, the highest reading since July 2023. NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann unpacked the factors contributing to this data. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Consumer confidence has gone back up - but new data indicates people are also worried about inflation. The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey shows consumer confidence rose 5 points to 98.3 in April - but inflation expectations soared 0.5pts to 4.7 percent, the highest reading since July 2023. NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann unpacked the factors contributing to this data. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

American Airlines can't keep Jacob down – he makes time to connect with Rob Larity to do an episode on the market chaos of the week. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Travel Woes(01:09) - Ranting About American Airlines(02:21) - Catching Up with Rob(03:06) - Market Volatility and Tariffs(04:34) - Financial Crisis vs. Current Situation(07:42) - Uncertainty in the Market(08:48) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade War(13:11) - Bond Yields and Inflation Expectations(20:20) - Dollar Weakness and Global Capital(22:46) - Historical Context and Globalization(26:24) - Trump's Desire for a Deal with China(27:29) - US-China Economic Interdependence(31:03) - Challenges in International Investment(33:42) - Inflation and Economic Uncertainty(37:16) - Corporate Responses to Tariffs(42:54) - Impact on Small and Medium Businesses(47:23) - Geopolitical and Economic Outlook(52:19) - Closing Remarks and Future Plans--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news equity markets have cancelled yesterday's relief rally.But first in the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 215,000, +7.7% higher than the week before, but identical to the same week a year ago. There are now just under 2 mln people on these benefits, up slightly from the 1.93 mln a year ago.US CPI inflation fell to 2.4% in March, its lowest level since February 2021. Because this was data taken before the tariff chaos, it seems this may be the low point for the foreseeable future. Food was up +3.0% and rents were up +4.0%. Medical care was up +3.0%. However petrol prices restrained the overall rises, down -9.8%. Very low oil prices will keep a lid on the total even if other living costs rise much faster.Today's UST 30 yr bond auction was well supported, but the median yield came in at 4.73%, up from 4.56% at the equivalent event a month ago.The US government reported a budget deficit of -US$161 bln in March, a -32% decrease from the previous year, largely due to a calendar shift in benefit payments. Despite this monthly decline, the broader fiscal picture remains concerning, with the US Treasury reporting a -US$1.3 tln deficit for the first half of fiscal 2025, a +23% rise from the previous year. This marks the second highest deficit for the first six months of any fiscal year, trailing only the -US$1.7 tln gap in fiscal 2021. Tax cuts for the rich in this environment looks exceedingly irresponsible, especially if the tax rises on consumers via tariffs don't raise the outlandish sums forecasted.Just how damaged the US government agencies have become, Musk's DOGE fired all the safety regulators that oversaw Tesla.The April USDA WASDE report out overnight shows that US corn inventories are lower than expected. Beef exports are expected to fall on retaliatory tariff actions against the US and beef imports are expected to be lower too for the same tariff reason. The net result seen in lower prices for US producers. Lower prices for US milk producers too as exports shrink. US farmers will be net losers from the tariff hostilities.Across the Pacific, Japanese producer inflation is rising, now its highest since mid-2023. Producer prices there rose +4.2% in March from the same month a year ago, above market estimates of 3.9%. It was their 49th straight month of producer inflation, with cost rising further for most components.Taiwanese exports surged again in March, up +18.6% from a year ago and a record high for any month. A +8.5% rise was expected. That is two consecutive months of outsized expansion. April tariff actions may well affect this impressive result going forward, but if US customers have no alternative sources, the tariff taxes will fall on the buyer.In China, they not only have to fight off the US tariff policies, they have a resurgence of domestic deflation issues. Their March CPI fell -0.1% when a +0.1% was anticipated. Their PPI fell -2.5% when a -2.3% retreat was anticipated. On the consumer price front, food prices are -0.6% lower than a year ago, of which beef prices fell -10.8% and lamb -5.4%. Milk prices fell -1.7% on the same basis. They want to shift to a consumer-based society, but in the meantime their existing export sector is going to take major hits which will affect consumption, and there seems little upside to consumer demand in the current circumstances. Their "over-capacity" is going to expose them. You wonder if they have any more appetite for capitalism's "creative destruction" than Western economies, who have proven to have virtually none.And staying in China, Beijing's drive to turn its economy into a consumption-led one relies of Chinese consumers spending and buying. But the evidence is that they are as spooked by the trade war as anyone and have turned consumption-shy.In March Australian inflation expectations fell to 3.6%, a four year low. But in April they jumped back up to 4.2% underscoring the ongoing uncertainty surrounding their domestic economic outlook and inflation trajectory in the face of fallout from the tariff war. Given they have both a jobs, and an inflation mandate, the RBA is in for a tricky period ahead with its policy choices.Container freight rates rose +3% in the past week to be -23% lower than a year ago. Basically trans-Pacific rates firmed slightly while trans-Atlantic rates eased. Bulk freight rates fell a very sharp -21% in the past week to be -20% lower than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.40%, unchanged from this time yesterday.Wall Street is currently down -3.4% on the S&P500 in its Thursday trade as the tariff-pause relief rally runs out of puff in the face of realities and reverses. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3162/oz, and up another +US$92 from yesterday.Oil prices have fallen -US$2 from yesterday to be just under US$60/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc, up +120 bps from yesterday at this time and a three week high. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 66.5 and up +70 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,207 and falling, and down -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Bill Housey explores how fixed income investors can navigate rising uncertainty—from trade policies to inflation and beyond—in this deep dive into the bond market's shifting dynamics.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Subscribe Here to the ROI Podcast & other First Trust Market News Website: First Trust PortfoliosConnect with us on LinkedIn: First Trust LinkedInFollow us on X: First Trust on XSubscribe to the First Trust YouTube ChannelSubscribe to the ROI Podcast YouTube Channel

New tariffs will surely lead to a rise in inflation, as will the oil price, if Iran ignores Trump's ultimatum to a new nuclear deal. With inflation expected to stay high, we look for only one rate cut this year, and think 2026 will be an easier year to cut rates. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is technically weak, having broken its March low. It is heavily weighted toward the champions of Artificial Intelligence that have driven the bull market of the past five years. The consensus forecast for 2025 S&P 500 index EPS growth that was over 13% in February, is below 10% today. But since World War 2, April has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P, and in the years when the S&P fell by 3% or more in March, April had an average gain of 6%.

In March, consumer confidence saw its fourth month-on-month decline, with people's assessment of current business and labor market conditions, plus their short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, all dropping.    Crucially, consumers' optimism about future income, which had held up strongly in recent months, largely vanished, which suggests that worries about the wider economy and labor market have started to spread to people's assessments of their personal situations.    Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist,and Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist of Global Indicators, both of The Conference Board, unpack what's behind declining consumer sentiment, including survey respondents' write-in responses, and how it could shape consumer spending and US economic growth this year.    (01:49) Detailed Breakdown of Consumer Expectations (03:24) Impact of Market Volatility (05:44) Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment (06:56) Tariffs and Their Influence on Consumer Views (08:25) Positive Highlights from the Survey (14:27) Federal Reserve's Potential Actions (17:53) Key Indicators to Watch Moving Forward   For more from The Conference Board:  US Consumer Confidence Tumbled Again in March  Download the full Consumer Confidence Survey Report  How Badly Will Uncertainty Affect US GDP Growth in 2025?   

Uncertainty about US policy, especially trade policy, has contributed to substantial rises in inflation uncertainty and in the University of Michigan's measure of long-term US household inflation expectations, which has risen to the highest since 1995. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), believes that as tariff threats, inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty rise further, commodities act as a critical inflation hedge as physical assets historically deliver strong real returns when inflation rises, while equity and bond real returns tend to be negative.

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss his Fed & QT expectations, his outlook for inflation, and the four ways the government can solve its debt problem. We also delve into stablecoins buying US debt, Bitcoin's potential as a neutral reserve asset for global trade, the sputnik moment in Europe, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mohamed El-Erian: https://x.com/elerianm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Expectations for the Fed (02:47) Inflation Expectations (09:38) Ledger Ad (10:25) Tariffs & Growth (13:20) Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Policies (22:31) Stablecoins and Digital Assets (25:12) Ledger Ad (28:31) Bitcoin as a Neutral Reserve Asset (33:00) Europe's Sputnik Moment (37:39) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ahead of the Fed's latest interest rate decision, Kevin Green maps out a watch list for investors to look for in the central bank's comments and Jerome Powell's speech. He points to the Trump administration's tariff policy as a potential talking point, as the Fed may be wary to cut too soon. Then, Kevin looks at General Mills (GIS) earnings and what levels to watch in the S&P 500 (SPX) in today's trading.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's inability to get out of its rut, and the fast-fading of the American exuberance are the dominating global economic scene-setters.And this week it will be all about by the US Fed and its Thursday monetary policy review. They face the prospects of higher inflation in the immediate plannable future from the costs of the new tariffs, an expansion that is faltering fast, and probably a wave of job losses. How they assess those conflicts will be keenly followed by financial markets, even if no rate change is expected.New inflation pressures are also hitting Canada, and they will release CPI data this week, along with retail sales data.And many other countries will have monetary policy reviews this coming week, including Japan, China, Sweden, Switzerland and the English. Japan will also release inflation data.And China is about to release retail sales and industrial production data later today along with a look at February house prices.Over the weekend in China, after the spectacular rise in January loan growth, reported their February levels came in quite low, showing the policy-induced surge could not be maintained. There were only ¥1.01 tln in new loans extended in the month, far below the ¥5.03 tln January level and back to levels it bounced along at for most 2024 months. The February 2024 level was ¥1.45 tln, so this 2025 result is a definite sag since then.New official energy is going into boosting consumer demand by tackling consumers property losses, that haven't responded so far to prior efforts, and to 'stabilise' their stock markets.And their foreign direct investment data out for February was very weak again, only ¥114 bln in February, -20.4% lower than the already low ¥143.4 bln in the same month of 2024. And this is off the back of a 2024 which was their lowest FDI inflows in eleven years. For perspective in February 2022 they attracted ¥220 bln in foreign investment, so this 2025 level is about half of that.Across the Pacific, the widely anticipated American March survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan was out and it fell much more than expected. In fact it recorded its lowest level since November 2022. It is now down -27% from a year ago.One key reason Americans are so glum (apart from the chaos of policy gyrations), they fear a sharp return of inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% in February, already a high level, to 4.9% this month, also the highest reading since November 2022 and marking three consecutive months of unusually large increases. Their new long term inflation expectations of 3.9% have now hit a 32 year high.There is probably much more to come. The US price of timber is already rising and now at its highest level two years. Industrial commodities like tin are also tracking much higher. We have previously noted the cost of eggs which even after a recent pullback are still almost double what they were a year ago. There will elevated interest in the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking when it is updated tomorrow.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.32%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just on US$2985/oz and up another net +US$2 from Saturday. Over the weekend it briefly spiked to US$3000 but then retraced sharply before settling at the current level.Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just over US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just on US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie however we are also unchanged at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding as well at at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.8, and also virtually unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,632 and down -0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Wall Street has taken sudden fright on the growing realisation of what Trump has wrought for them. It's risk-off in a big way with equities falling sharply and bond yields retreating. Normally on a risk-off phase the USD rises, but this time it's actually softer. Putin's puppet isn't good for business.Probably not helping is that one-year US inflation expectations are rising, the first rise in four months, and to its highest since May 2024. The broader survey reported rising pessimism. Fear of job loss jumped sharply. The worries about missing a debt payment over the next three months jumped to 14.6%, the highest level since April 2020. The increase was driven by those without a college degree and largest for those under age 40, the demographic that drove the election result.And its not just consumers. American farmers are recoiling at the impact on them and their markets. It is likely that farm spending and investment decisions will take a long holiday until most USDA and USAID programs are restored. Reports and data from those agencies are likely to become very unreliable now that DOGE-aligned managers are now in charge. Farmers are voting with their checkbooks and it is going to be tough for the wider agribusiness sector.And it is probably worth noting the the Tesla share price is down another -13% so far today. That is a now a -53% drop since the US election.Across the Pacific, there were a set of indicators out for Japan overnight. Their leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for the coming months based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, edged up to its highest reading since October. However, that was slightly less than expected. On the other hand, annual household spending rose for the first time in five months, its fastest growth since August 2022. However consumer sentiment slipped.China said it will impose a 100% tariff on imports of certain Canadian agricultural products, along with a 25% levy on seafood and pork. They will come into effect in ten days in response to Ottawa's trade measures. Canada had previously imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles starting October 1 last year, aligning with similar actions by the US and EU over concerns of unfair competition. Additionally, Canada implemented a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminium imports, effective since October 15 last year. They are trying not to be gamed in the manoeuvring between the US and China.And you may be interested to know that Beijing authorities have launched a trial of street patrols by robot dogs. Given their pervasive 'social security' system tied into the extensive facial recognition systems, this seems a particularly dystopian development.In Europe, German industrial production rose in January from December and by more than expected. That has helped them eat into their year-on-year decline, taking it to its smallest level since mid-2023.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, down -7 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just over US$2898/oz and down -US$12 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$66.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down -US$1 at just over US$69.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.2 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +30 bps at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.5, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$78,624 and down another large net -4.8% from this time yesterday. That means it is given up all its gains after the US election in November, and more. Trump seems to have 'lost' the crypto tech-bros too. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

This week, we discuss why markets lead the economy and a drawdown will trigger a recession, the possibility of stagflation & repercussions of low interest rates, and the impact of Trump's political agenda on markets and the economy. We also delve into the outlook for oil and gold, market skew, OpEx-driven drawdowns, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW Supply Shock YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupplyShockBW Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F8U5kLU2L_bITYG3CM6dn8e7X897-CDT/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro Overview (05:21) Recession Predictions (07:28) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (10:42) Skale Ad (11:04) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (Con't) (14:21) Trump, Populism, & Economic Policy Outlook (24:35) Historical Comparisons (31:50) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (33:32) Skale Ad (34:03) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (Con't) (39:10) Skew Dynamics and Volatility (46:01) Portfolio Allocation Strategies (49:51) Oil and Gold Market Insights (54:23) Final Thoughts OpEx Crumbs — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Conference Board reported the biggest monthly decline in consumer confidence since 2021. The University of Michigan also reported a sharp decline in optimism, along with a steep increase in inflation expectations. The reasons? Threats of tariffs, high cost-of-living expenses and general uncertainty. Also on the show: a draft deal for the U.S. to access Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and a proposed green card for wealthy people.

The Conference Board reported the biggest monthly decline in consumer confidence since 2021. The University of Michigan also reported a sharp decline in optimism, along with a steep increase in inflation expectations. The reasons? Threats of tariffs, high cost-of-living expenses and general uncertainty. Also on the show: a draft deal for the U.S. to access Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and a proposed green card for wealthy people.

Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to react to the unemployment report. Was it good or bad for the markets and why? Plus, they review the last trade and tariff war from 2017-2018 and how the market actually did pretty well. Later, the latest survey on forward inflation expectations is now over 5%. Finally, they compare MicroStrategy's implied volatility to Blackrock's IBIT ETF and whether the options market is undervaluing MSTR's IV. All that and more this week.    Markets performance back in 2017-2018 when tariffs were enacted Inflation expectations shoot up due to tariffs  Stock market performance during the 2017-2018 trade and tariff war MicroStrategy implied volatility Comparing MicroStrategy volatility to Blackrock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF Looking at the breakeven on a long MSTR straddle and the risks Reviewing the unemployment report Will unemployment go down due to new government strategic focus? AI mentions on S&P 500 earnings calls 83% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 6% US Non-Farm Payrolls consecutive positive months BLS forgot to fill in the monthly change on unemployment report?   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more signaled tariffs on imports into the US, specifically on metals. A new inflation surge seems inevitable, as does less trade and low growth - in other words we need to prepare for a new bout of stagflation.But first, American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead remained at 3% for a third consecutive month in January, according to the NY Fed national survey. This is far more sanguine than the University of Michigan survey we noted yesterday which reported a 4.3% year ahead level. The NY Fed survey noted that households now expect to pull back their spending in the year ahead, however.The Musk takeover of US spending priorities is leaving many losers, including US farmers. In Canada, a survey by their central bank of about 30 significant financial "market participants" at the end of 2024 showed that those polled expect the Canadian 3% current policy interest rate still has another -50 bps of cuts to come, but that it will level out at 2.5% from mid-year for the next long period. This survey also showed an expectation of a +1.8% or +1.9% economic growth rate over the next two years, although the largest risk to that is from policy uncertainty in the US.And staying in Canada, falling residential values are leaving some very tough positions for buyers who bought off the plan, and now find the contract price now far exceeds what a bank would value their purchase for a mortgage.In India, the one-two public policy push to "go for growth" with tax cuts and a lower policy interest rate, isn't getting plaudits from financial markets. They have driven the Indian currency to a record low against the USD, although it has come off that in the past few hours. (But of course some of that is due to the overall strength of the USD.)In the face of new US tariff threats, some targeted metals prices have risen. Essentially they are pricing in the higher prices American buyers will have to pay. Aluminium is at a two year high and running at long term high levels, steel comes in may varieties, but rebar steel hasn't moved much because that has China-focused demand. Other commodity-metals are flat, but specialty metal prices are rising. And copper is back near its all-time highs suddenly at just over US$10,000/tonne (NZ$17,750). These shifts higher will underpin global inflationary impulses that no-one can avoid.And we should probably note that the new aggressive new US Gaza policies probably mean there will be no end to the risks of using the Suez Canal, extending its inflationary impact.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.49%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2900/oz and up +US$40 from yesterday. This will be a new record closing if it holds this level.Oil prices are up +US$1.50 at just under US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$76/bbl and back to week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.5 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday.  Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.8, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,281 and up +0.7% slip from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

We discuss recent inflation and jobs numbers as well as the latest Consumer Sentiment release from the University of Michigan.

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Market Update and Economic Insights - November 12th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group provides a comprehensive market update from their Newport Beach office. The Dow Jones fell 382 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, and Nasdaq remained flat. Key points discussed include the recent fluctuations in the market following the post-election rally, the notable rise in interest rates with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.43%, and the impact of better-than-expected growth numbers. Brian also touches on the strengthening dollar, the shifting political landscape in Congress, and upcoming economic data releases, including the anticipated CPI report. Federal Reserve comments on restrictive Fed funds and inflation are also highlighted. The session concludes with an acknowledgment of the market as a discounting mechanism and a reminder to consider the difference between policy announcements and actual implementations. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:14 Market Overview: A Day in Stocks 00:51 Interest Rates and Treasury Yields 01:27 Political Landscape and Market Impact 02:39 Economic Data and Surveys 03:32 Federal Reserve Insights 03:46 Inflation Expectations and Market Predictions 05:26 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

"Money Movers” provides investors with real-time analysis of the stories and the people attracting the attention of the markets each day. Capturing the energy of day's early trading, the program includes the breaking news and numbers driving stocks and sectors, helping investors make critical decisions. “Money Movers” anchors speak with the CEOs, government decision-makers and newsmakers who play a relevant role in how money is moving.

Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a former senior Fed staffer, and a returning guest to the podcast. Joe rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the unholy trinity behind the COVID inflation surge and what history can teach us about the unusual inflation experience of that period. David and Joe also discuss the inflationary lessons from the Korean War, the Fed's upcoming framework review, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Joseph's Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joseph's PIIE profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?* by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard   *Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era* by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:02:46) – Predicting the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge   (00:06:39) – Assessing the State of the Bond Market and Inflation Expectations After the Inflation Surge   (00:16:14) – What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation: Breaking Down the Literature   (00:23:45) – *The Trinity of COVID-Era Inflation in G7 Economies*   (00:32:55) – *Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War*   (00:42:06) – Inflation, FAIT, and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:49:18) – Why Should the Fed Consider Nominal GDP Targeting?   (00:53:04) – Responding to the Measurement Issue Surrounding Nominal GDP   (00:57:40) – Outro

Text us your financial questions!Henssler Money Talks — October 19, 2024Season 38, Episode 42This week on "Money Talks," Director of Investments Jacob Keen, CFA, is joined by Managing Associate Jarrett McKenzie, CFP®, CWS®, and Senior Financial Planner Molly Remeika, CFP®, to cover the week's market news, including the Producer Price Index and Consumer Sentiment. Jarrett and Molly break down when investors should consider engaging with a financial adviser and how they can “test drive” their retirement plan. Piggybacking off the case study conversation, the experts address a listener's question on how to figure out what his withdrawal rate should be from his portfolio in retirement.Timestamps and Chapters00:00: Market Roundup: Oct. 14 – Oct. 18, 202423:29: Case Study:  Test Driving a Retirement Plan 35:33: Q&A Time: Retirement Portfolio Withdrawal RatesFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Stephen's Twitter: @SteveMiran Stephen's Manhattan Institute profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini   *Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar But Wall Street Doubts He'll Get One* by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson   *Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed's Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy*   (00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others   (00:28:21) – Addressing Trump's Push for a Weaker Dollar   (00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use?   (00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto   (00:49:19) – Outro

Mickey Levy is Chief Economist for the Americas and Asia for Berenberg Capital Markets, a Wall Street veteran, and a longstanding member of the Shadow Open Market Committee. He and his co-author, Charles Plosser, also have a new paper out titled, *The Fed's Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot.* Mickey joins David on Macro Musings to discuss this paper and its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve framework review. David and Mickey also discuss the impact and importance of a flat Phillips curve, the Fed's policy mistakes in the wake of its new flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) framework, recommendations for how the central bank should approach the next framework review, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Mickey's Twitter: @mickeylevy Mickey's website   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Fed's Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:50) – Mickey Levy's Career Path and Takeaways from the Most Recent Hoover Monetary Policy Conference   (00:07:24) – What Shaped the First Framework Review?   (00:11:56) – The Fed's Addition of “Symmetric” Inflation   (00:16:32) – Price Level Drift, Deflationary Fears, and Inflation Expectations at the Fed   (00:23:33) – The Impact and Importance of a Flat Phillips Curve   (00:27:34) – Breaking Down the Elements of FAIT and the Fed's Policy Mistakes   (00:42:11) – Recommendations for the Fed's Upcoming Framework Review   (00:57:54) – Outro

Matt Graham provides an update on recent market activity, focusing on the impact of weaker-than-expected job reports and heightened inflation expectations, and looks ahead to key economic data releases, including the upcoming CPI and PPI reports, which are anticipated to significantly influence bond yields.--------------------------------------------------------------Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.Check out more details about MBS Live here

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Stocks close mixed; people's spending and income expectations pick up; Kraft Heinz reportedly thinking about selling off Oscar Meyer; inflation data due this week.

What are inflation expectations? How do our personal experiences shape them? And why do they matter to central banks? In this episode of The ECB Podcast, our host Stefania Secola and researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos discuss how people form expectations about inflation and how we measure them. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 26 April 2024 and recorded on 19 April 2024. In this episode: 01:35 – Inflation expectations What are inflation expectations, and why do they matter for central banks? How do people form such expectations? 9:25 – The impact on prices Can inflation expectations shape the prices we end up paying? How might personal perceptions influence wages? 11:30 – Measuring inflation expectations Why is it important to measure inflation expectations, and how do we do it at the ECB? What were the findings of our latest survey? 16:38 – The role of the ECB What can the ECB do to inform people's inflation expectations? And what role can communication play in this? 21:15 – Our guests' hot tips ECB researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos share their hot tips and some final thoughts with our listeners. ECB Consumer Expectations Survey https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/index.en.html Working Paper: Tell me something I don't already know: learning in low and high-inflation settings, March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2914~d6a8832bf5.en.pdf?e655c8b68e7c2fb096387a4da34c42e6 Research Bulletin: Recent changes in consumers' medium-term inflation expectations – a detailed look, February 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-publications/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb230224~558beec65c.en.html Economic Bulletin issue 3/2024: Trust in the ECB – insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey, April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202403.en.html#toc24 European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

Felipe Schwartzman and Sonya Waddell discuss their research on the relationship between inflation and firms' expectations for their costs and prices, informed by the responses to special questions added to the Richmond Fed's business surveys since 2021. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_03_06_inflation_expectations

Peter Williams is a managing director of macroeconomic research at 22V Research and was formerly at the IMF and the World Bank. Peter joins David on Macro Musings to provide a market perspective on interest rates, Treasury markets, and monetary policy. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the dos and don'ts of estimating term premiums, the importance and future of R-star, the usefulness of inflation expectations, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Peter's LinkedIn profile Peter's 22V bio   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium* by Emanuel Kopp and Peter Williams   *Reading the Stars* by Peter Williams, Yasser Abdih, and Emanuel Kopp   *Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses* by Peter Williams

Stocks rise; inflation expectations at lowest level since April 2021; investor group offers to buy out Macy's; Fed holding final meeting of the year.