Podcasts about pce price index

On this December 5th episode, we examine a raft of data releases that together sketch a disquieting portrait of the US economy. The latest ADP report showed the economy losing 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, while the Challenger Job Cuts report registered more than 70,000 layoffs—only the third time since 2008 that November cuts have exceeded that threshold. The Beige Book echoed this deterioration, noting that firms have moved beyond hiring freezes and begun outright reductions in headcount, a trend reinforced by the ISM Manufacturing survey.Markets initially rallied on the release of September's Personal Consumption Expenditures report, encouraged by strong headline figures. Yet the underlying details told a more troubling story. Real PCE and real disposable personal income were essentially flat on the month, and both the headline and core PCE Price Index appear to be drifting upward. Notably, nondurable goods prices surged on both monthly and annual measures—potentially reflecting tariff-related pressures—raising doubts that these increases will prove temporary.Taken together, the data continue to form a mosaic consistent with a stagflationary backdrop: weakening activity, softening labor demand, and price pressures that are proving stubborn rather than transitory.

Singapore shares inched higher today as Asian markets started the week on a positive note. The Straits Times Index was up 0.22% at 4,275.36 points at 2.26pm Singapore time, with a value turnover of S$937.56M seen in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch, we have Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, after the shipbuilder on Saturday announced that three of its subsidiaries have cancelled contracts valued at US$180 million with an unknown party. Elsewhere, from what an in-line personal consumption expenditures price index reading for August meant for investors, to how gold surpassed the key US$3,800 per ounce level for the first time today – more international and economic headlines remained in focus. Also on deck, more on CapitaLand Commercial C-Reit and Sony Financial Group’s trading debut in Shanghai and Tokyo respectively. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with David Kuo, Co-founder, The Smart Investor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump znów pogroził cłami. 50% na towary z UE od 1 czerwca (w nocy z niedzieli na poniedziałek przesunął ten termin na 9 lipca) i 25% na produkty Apple'a, jeżeli nie będzie produkował w USA. Piątek był nerwowy na amerykańskim rynku akcji. W poniedziałek nie dowiemy się, jak zareagują amerykańskie rynki, bo Amerykanie świętują. Czy Trump może zmusić amerykańskie firmy do niepodnoszenia cen pomimo wprowadzenia ceł? Ręczne sterowanie cenami przez polityków nigdy się dobrze nie kończy. Z tematów zza oceanu oczekiwanie na „ulubioną” inflację Fedu, czyli PCE Price Index i możliwe scenariusze co do stóp procentowych i rentowności obligacji. A w Polsce bardzo silny złoty. Jego realna siła może niepokoić, ale nie oznacza, że złoty za moment zacznie słabnąć.  Rafał Bogusławski i Robert Stanilewicz zapraszają!

Singapore shares were little changed today even as markets in the region rose. The Straits Times Index was up a marginal 0.04% at 3,813.20 points at about 2.51pm Singapore time with a value turnover of S$660.61M seen across the broader market. In terms of counters to watch, we have Amara. Shares surged 27% shortly after the market opened to hit an all-time high after Hwa Hong, Wing Tai, Teo family consortium yesterday launched a bid to take Amara private at S$0.895 a share. Elsewhere, from HSBC Bank launching a US$3 billion share buyback after reporting a 25 per cent fall in first-quarter profit to fast-fashion giant Shein Group hiking US prices by as much as 377% ahead of imminent tariffs on small parcels – more corporate and international headlines remain in focus. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Too Jun Cheong, Assistant Dealing Manager from Moomoo Singapore.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Singapore shares dipped today as markets in the region traded mixed. The Straits Times Index was down 0.31% at 3,811.77 points at about 1.32pm Singapore time with a value turnover of S$569.50M seen in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch, we have Yangzijiang Financial Holding because Yangzijiang Financial is exploring the possibility of spinning off its maritime investment segment into a newly incorporated company to be listed separately on the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange. Meanwhile, from Singapore’s growth outlook turning more cautious in the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s twice-yearly Macroeconomic Report, to Airbus reaching a final agreement to take over some assets and sites from Spirit AeroSystems Holdings – more economic and corporate headlines remain in focus. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with David Kuo, Co-founder, The Smart Investor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) set a record today as it crossed the 4,000-mark for the first time in early trade. The index hit 4005.18 points shortly after the market opened. This surpassed its previous record of 3,991 points, clocked on the 27th of March. In terms of counters to watch today, we have Sinarmas Land, after an entity controlled by Indonesia’s billionaire Widjaja family – Lyon Investments – made a voluntary unconditional cash offer for all the shares in Sinarmas Land that it does not already own at S$0.31 apiece. Elsewhere, from Trump’s tariff plans propelling the safe haven gold to a record high to Hong Kong’s derivative trading surging to highs previously not seen – more international headlines remain in focus. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Benjamin Goh, Head of Research and Investor Education, SIAS.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Singapore stocks were lower at about 2.20pm today as investors digested more earnings from notable names including Olam, ComfortDelGro and Sheng Siong. The Straits Times Index fell 0.7 per cent to 3,893.81 points then, with a value of S$1.10 billion in the broader market. In terms of counters to watch today, we have Olam, after the agribusiness giant today reported a net profit of S$38.4 million for the second half ended Dec 31, down 83.4 per cent from the previous corresponding period. Elsewhere, from Beijing opposing US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to slap an extra 10% duty on Chinese imports, to ByteDance’s TikTok investing US$8.8 billion in data centres in Thailand over five years – more international and corporate headlines remain in focus. Also on deck – more on the ongoing saga surrounding CDL - and what to note from a statement by its Group CEO Sherman Kwek out last night. But first, here’s a quick snippet of our conversation on CDL. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Benjamin Goh, Head of Research and Investor Education, SIAS.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Czy warto ufać prognozom instytucji finansowych? Co z nich coś wyciągnąć dla siebie, nawet jeśli im nie ufamy? Nie będzie zamrożenia administracji w USA, chociaż Donald Trump ostrzegał kolegów republikanów, by nie przykładali do tego ręki. Ale wielu go nie posłuchało i amerykańscy politycy „za pięć dwunasta” osiągnęli porozumienie w kwestii podniesienia limitu zadłużenia. Przyniósł też ulgę ostatni odczyt najważniejszej dla Fedu miary inflacji. PCE Price Index pokazał wzrost cen poniżej oczekiwań. Rynki akcji poszły w górę. A przy okazji… Nadwyżka gotówki w USA na rynku międzybankowym wysycha. Co to oznacza i co z tym zrobi Fed? A jednak się kręci! W Polsce sprzedaż detaliczna na plus. Czy to wystarczy na rozpędzenie gospodarki? Rafał Bogusławski i Robert Stanilewicz zapraszają na ostatnie przed świętami wydanie Analiz LIVE!

Singapore shares opened higher today as traders took to the sidelines ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. As at 12 pm, the Straits Times Index (STI) was up 0.2 per cent at 3,714.78 points after 430.8 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch, we have DBS, because DBS and Japan Finance Corporation (JFC) signed a memorandum of understanding to help Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) expand into six markets in Asia. Elsewhere, from how real incomes in Singapore made a rebound in 2024, to outlook for Japanese automakers Nissan and Toyota as the firms mull possible tariffs when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office next year – more economic and corporate headlines remain in focus. Plus – more news on how Meta's Mark Zuckerberg joined Donald Trump for dinner at his Mar-a-Lago estate yesterday. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian dived into the details with David Chow, Director Azure Capital.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cena złota bardzo ostatnio mocno skacze. Był rekord, ale o kolejne jakoś trudno. Gdzie jest trend? Koniec walk Izraela z Hezbollachem w Libanie? Czy jest szansa na zawieszenie broni? A może, zanim zaczniemy lajwa w środę o 8:45 już będzie wiadomo, że się stało. Co na to ropa, a rączej jej cena? Możliwości zwiększenia wydobycia ropy przez OPEC, poza Arabią Saudyjską, są niewielkie, więc uspokojenie na Bliskim Wschodzie mogłoby obniżyć ceny, bo rynki obawiają się cały czas eskalacji konfliktu. Dzień z danymi z USA. Ulubiona miara inflacji Fed, czyli PCE Price Index, ale również dochody i wydatki Amerykanów oraz rewizja PKB za III kwartał. Rewizja PKB może zamieszać na rynkach, gdyby było duże odchylenie od wstępnych danych. Rząd Japonii kontra związki zawodowe. W tle inflacja i koszty życia. Czyli wyzwania japońskiego rządu. A jak na to reaguje Nikkei? I uwaga, uwaga, znowu lepsze dane z Polski. Po pozytywnym zaskoczeniu w produkcji popisała się sprzedaż detaliczna. Czyżby koniunktura się poprawiała? Może w końcu indeksy na GPW wezmą z niej przykład

Singapore stocks traded lower this afternoon, as investors continued to digest the threat of Trump's tariffs. As at about noon time (12.01 pm), the Straits Times Index (STI) was down 0.3 per cent at 3,702.8 points after 421.2 million securities changed hands in the broader market.  In terms of companies to watch, we have Singapore Post, after the national postal service provider said yesterday that it was in exclusive talks with a third party for a potential sale of its Australia business, while stating that no definitive deal has been reached.  Elsewhere, from more on US President-elect Donald Trump's move to choose tough-negotiating hawk and lawyer Jamieson Greer as his trade envoy, to CrowdStrike raising its annual revenue and profit forecasts – more international and corporate headlines remain in focus. On Market View, Money Matters' finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Jeff Ng, Head of Asia Macro Strategy, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeszcze w głowie się kręci od huśtawki na euro po słabszych niż oczekiwano danych z Niemiec i Francji, jeszcze złoty zbiera się po bolesnych doznaniach z ostatnich dni, a już nadchodzą kolejne ciekawe wydarzenia. To nie będzie udany tydzień dla wielu indyków w USA. W czwartek Święto Dziękczynienia, ale rynki i polityka żyją i dzieje się dużo. W weekend Donald Trump przedstawił kandydata na szefa departamentu skarbu i rynki akcji i obligacji przyjęły to z radością. Scott Bessent zapowiada wzięcie w ryzy deficytów budżetowych. Czy to mu się uda, to już inna historia. Czekamy na ulubioną przez Fed miarę inflacji, czyli PCE Price Index, a w krótszym roboczym tygodniu można spodziewać się większej zmienności na rynkach. Nasz przemysł zaskoczył tym razem na plus. Plus 10% miesiąc do miesiąca robi wrażenie. Czy to zapowiedź lepszych informacji z naszej gospodarki? Rafał Bogusławski i Robert Stanilewicz zapraszają!!

Singapore stocks traded higher today as they followed other markets in the region in making gains. As at noon, the Straits Times Index (STI) shed some earlier gains, climbing around 0.2 per cent to 3,754.88 points after 35.6 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch, we have City Developments Limited. The property giant and its joint venture associates posted S$611.1 million in sales for the third quarter ended September, up from S$325 million in the corresponding period last year. Elsewhere, from how Singapore's core and headline inflation came in lower than expected in October, to how Adani's dollar bond prices fell to almost one -year lows today – more local and corporate headlines remain in focus.  On Market View, Money Matter's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Thomas Chua, Founder, Steady Compounding.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Keith discusses the current state of the US economy, noting that while it is considered strong by conventional measures, there are four major threats on the horizon that the country is not doing enough to address. He's joined by our guest, macroeconomic expert, Richard Duncan to discuss these topics. Richard proposes a solution that could strengthen the US's competitive position against China. Shifting from Capitalism to Creditism. Also, hear about the risks facing the real estate and stock markets in the near-term, such as the historically high wealth-to-income ratio and the ongoing quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve. Learn more about Richard's work through his video newsletter, Macro Watch. Use discount code GRE for 50% off at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/527 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, per conventional measures, today's us. Economy is strong, but there are four vicious threats on the horizon, and we're not doing enough about them. Our macroeconomist guests will discuss that with us today. How alarming is it, and what's the solution to our crises, this week on get rich education,   Speaker 1  0:27   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:12   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:28   Welcome to GRE from Fort Wayne, Indiana to Fort Lee New Jersey and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education. We've been here for you, every single week since 2014 coming off of an election last week, this spurs more macroeconomic thought, monetary and fiscal policy, and more than that. And you know, one thing that I'm always looking for are signs of inflation versus deflation, because we live in a long term inflationary world. Well, you wouldn't keep a million bucks under a mattress because it would only be worth 300k in a few decades. But in deflation, you would flip your strategy and actually be a saver. You might keep millions out of the mattress, because deflation would actually increase the purchasing power of every single one of your dollars. Now, I've got a pretty unpopular take for you here at some point, probably now you've got to give the Fed credit for a soft landing. And what does a soft landing mean? Exactly. It means bringing down inflation without putting the economy into a recession. Well, inflation is down to about 2% now, unemployment is still low, near 4% and GDP growth for last quarter came in at 2.8% okay, yes, I sure understand that those benefits are distributed unevenly, but at this point, how much more of a soft landing Do you really want? And by the way, this sure doesn't mean that I love the Federal Reserve. I mean, they get no credit from me for not jumping on inflation sooner, when it peaked two and a half years ago, or even before that point, well, those high consumer prices as a result of that are still with us, and that's a problem, and they got that part wrong. We're about to talk with our global macroeconomic expert, really. He is one of the foremost authorities in the entire world today. We're going to talk about four major catastrophes the US economic future faces. One of those four is our ballooning national debt and deficit. And to review that for you, first, the debt is our overall accumulation of debt over the years now at 36 trillion. And when it comes to these awful, dreadful debt and deficit issues, I will ask our guests the question, when is it game over? Where is that tipping point? What would need to happen and the deficit? Okay, that refers to the annual shortfall, the annual thing, that shortfall that our bloated government keeps coming up with at the end of every year, all right, so therefore revenue minus spending equals deficit. Another way to say that is income minus expenses equals a deficit when the expenses are greater than the income. Well, that figure is near $2 trillion we're spending 2 trillion more than we raise in revenue each year. And here's an example. I'll use real world numbers rounded off to the nearest trillion. So if the government's annual revenue is only 5 trillion and you have to subtract out spending, which is 7 trillion, that could. Gives us an annual deficit of 2 trillion, pretty simple stuff, and that more or less gets added onto our overall debt of 36 trillion. Another major problem is this growing competition from China. Yes, I know that people like to discuss their demographic problems, but still, their population is more than four times the US population, and you learn about what other advantages they have over us and what we direly need to do to catch up. In our guests opinion, these issues incur some rather detailed explanations. So I'm really going to let our guest expert takeover for a while today, this weekend, I will be in San Antonio, Texas. San Antonio is an uptrending real estate market because they are really a beneficiary in distribution with their proximity to Mexico in the near shoring movement that's taking place. And then I will be in Austin, Texas, for a few days, Austin is one of the few major US metros that have seen rents substantially decline recently. I'll bring you next week's show from Austin, where I might talk more about that. Then, from the 20th to the 24th of this month, I'll be in New Orleans at the famed New Orleans investment conference, where they're pulling out all the stops at the 50th anniversary of the event, and that is the longest running investment event in America and perhaps the world. I hope to meet some of you there in New Orleans, just like I do each time I'm at the event. Let's talk about the bigger picture economy that your real estate and investments float within next.   This week's guest is the author of four books analyzing the crises that brought the global economy to the brink of collapse in recent decades. One of the books forecast the 2008 global financial crisis with great accuracy. We're going to discuss future crises here today, before we're done, he has worked as an equities and Investment Analyst, and then he went on to hold some rather esteemed roles at the World Bank in DC and as a consultant to the IMF in Asia. He joins us from Thailand today. He now publishes a video newsletter called macro watch, and long time listeners know that today's guest was also this show's very first guest that was back on GRE podcast episode seven, only 10 years ago now, in November 2014, and he's really become quite the friend of the show, and we've looked out for each other ever since. It's terrific to have back global macro economist Richard Duncan   Richard Duncan  7:46   Keith, hey, thank you for having me back. It's great to speak with you again.   Keith Weinhold  7:50   Oh, it's so good to have you here an entire decade of our lives. And as times change, economies are surely dynamic, and you're so good at spotlighting crises and explaining them in a way to people that they can understand. So Richard, why don't you talk to us now about risks facing the nation? Yes, I'm talking about the United States.   Richard Duncan  8:15   A lot of podcasts focus on all the problems the United States is facing, and it is certainly true that the United States is facing very serious risk. So I'd like to start off this conversation telling you what I think the greatest risk facing our country are. There are four main things I'd like to hit on. The first is something you mentioned to me before in our exchange of emails, is that the US government does have a very high level of government debt relative to GDP, and the budget deficits are large. So that's problem number one. Problem number two, in my opinion, looking at this from where I live in Asia, is that the United States is at risk of being conquered by China in the not too distant future. Risk Number Two. Risk Number three, we have very serious domestic political divisions within the United States. Risk Number four is that our post capitalist economic system, which I call creditism, must have credit growth to survive. If credit contracts, then our economy will spiral into a Great Depression that will be probably worse than the one of the 1930s so those are the big four problems that we have, and it doesn't do anyone any good just to talk about our country's problems if you don't offer a solution to them. So in my opinion, all of these problems can be overcome by accelerating economic growth in the United States, while all of these problems would be made very much worse by anything that causes us economic growth to slow down. The way to make the US economy grow much faster is to have the US Government finance a very, very large investment in the industries and technologies of the future over the next 10 years, starting immediately. The alternative austerity would cause the economy to spiral down into deflation. We'd like your listeners to think of austerity when they hear the word austerity. I'd like them to think of the word death. It's austerity is equal to death. Yeah, the US doesn't have to be a declining power. The first American Century doesn't have to be the last. It can be the first of many. The solution for driving the US economy to grow much more rapidly and solving all four of the problems that I mentioned above is a US sovereign wealth fund. Thank heavens. Both parties now support the establishment of a US sovereign wealth fund. On September 5, former President Trump came out in support of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, and on the following day, the Biden administration said, then working on this for months and had a plan that they were developing. So this is fantastic news for the United States. It offers great hope for solving all of our greatest problems. And I'd like to spend, you know, a few minutes explaining to your listeners what a US sovereign wealth fund is, yes, urgently necessary, and why both parties have now come to understand why this is important to establish.   Keith Weinhold  11:27   Yeah, please tell us why you think the US sovereign wealth fund is so urgently needed, and what it is because for even longer than the 10 years since you were first here, for about 15 years now, you have championed and promoted this US sovereign wealth fund. You discussed it on CNBC Squawk Box and all over the place. Last year, you presented about it in a speech in DC to 15 members of the House, Ways and Means Committee. So tell us about the US sovereign wealth fund and why you think it's urgently needed.   Richard Duncan  11:56    Let's begin with, what is a sovereign wealth fund? Well, effectively, a sovereign wealth fund is where a country invest in individual companies or even in startups. There are sovereign wealth funds all around the world. Norway has the largest, Singapore has two very effective ones called gdic and Temasek, which had been enormously profitable and successful, and it made the people in Singapore much richer. So a sovereign wealth fund in the United States would be an investment bond financed by the United States government with the US. This investment fund would take stakes in existing companies and also in startup companies, hopefully on a very large scale. Now, some people have asked, Why is this framework necessary? Why do we need a sovereign wealth fund to do that when the government is already making investments in the military, for instance, and funding some R and D research? Well, the difference between what the government is doing now and a sovereign wealth fund is with a sovereign wealth fund, the government would actually keep equity stakes in these companies that they invest in, meaning that when these companies they invest in become enormously profitable, the profits would be owned by every American. The Americans would have the equity stakes in all of the investments that this sovereign wealth fund makes. And it would be a situation where the government provides the financing, but the private sector manages the companies. The government just finances these companies in new industries and new technologies, and the government has the ability to invest on a very much larger scale than the private sector does. For example, The United States has a lot of great companies in the private sector that have accomplished really, truly great things in recent years and long past as well. But these private sector companies cannot invest on the same scale that the Chinese government can. The Chinese government is investing on a much larger scale than any of the American companies could ever dream to invest on. And that's explains why China is overtaking us now technologically, and if they continue to invest at a rapid rate that they're doing currently, then before long, there are going to be far ahead of us technologically and therefore economically, and more worryingly, militarily, the US government has the ability to invest truly on a multi trillion dollar scale over the next decade in new industries and technologies, things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotech, biotech, genetic engineering and developing energy sources like fusion, and it has the ability to do this on such a large scale that it would be certain to succeed. And once these companies start creating cancer vaccines or fusion, for instance, they would be enormously profitable, and they could be listed on. NASDAQ at multi trillion dollar valuations, and the American public would own equity stakes in these companies, and would then would directly reap the rewards of these profits that these companies would generate. That is what a sovereign wealth fund is, why it's desperately needed, is, well, first of all, we should do it, because we can easily afford to do it. And the results, the breakthroughs, the technological breakthroughs and medical miracles that these sorts of companies would produce, would we really have the shot of curing all the diseases and radically extending life expectancy, developing sources of limitless energy that would bring down the cost of energy radically. Just across the board, it would induce a technological revolution that would turbo charge us economic growth, create UNDRIP wealth, and at the same time, shore up US national security in the face of this growing threat from China. So for all of those reasons, it is urgently necessary. In my opinion.   Keith Weinhold  16:04   both Norway and Singapore have had similar models to this. US sovereign wealth fund, and we certainly think of those two nations as prosperous places, tell me more about why it's a success so the government finances it does that incentivize companies to therefore take more risk?   Richard Duncan  16:25   It allows them to invest more. It allows them to invest on a much larger scale than that. Could if they have to rely on their own funding sources. Rather than investing millions of dollars, they could invest billions of dollars or 10s of billions of dollars. For instance, at the moment, the National Cancer Institute in the United States, this annual budget is $6 billion a year. $6 billion a year is not curing cancer. If we look back a few years ago, the Fed was creating $120 billion a month through quantitative easing per month. So with just 5% of one month of QE, you could double the National Cancer Institute's budget. Now that's not what this sovereign wealth fund would do. That just illustrates the scale. How much greater the scale would be that the government could invest on relative to what is currently being invested at the moment by the government and by the private sector combined.   Keith Weinhold  17:28   Do any critics ever ask about Wait? Is this too much government intervention into the free market? Is this a move away from capitalism? What do you say to those sort of critics?   Richard Duncan  17:38    I say to them that capitalism died in World War One. It certainly didn't survive the 20th century. Now the government. In the 19th century, we had capitalism. The government had very little involvement in the economy then and gold was money. But now gold is no longer money. The Fed creates some money. Government spending is something like nearly $7 trillion out of a GDP. That is around just not quite $30 trillion yet. So the government has been directing the economy going back at least since World War Two. This hasn't been capitalism for a very long time. Under capitalism, the private sector made investments, and some businessmen would make profits from their investments, and they would save that profit as capital and reinvest that capital. That's how capitalism grew. That's why they called it capitalism. It was based on capital accumulation and investment. But that's not how our economic system has worked for decades. Our system now is not driven by investment and saving by the private sector. It's driven by credit creation and consumption and more credit creation and more consumption and our economies has now been transformed from capitalism. It has evolved into creditism, with the government playing the directing role. So total credit in the United States, just last quarter blew through $100 trillion for the first time. By what I mean by total credit is the same thing as total debt. Total credit is equal to total debt. So this is all the debt of all sectors of the economy, the government sector, the household sector, the corporate sector, the financial sector, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all the sectors of the economy, it just went through $100 trillion and Breda ism has created very rapid growth, especially all around the world, not only in the United States, because it has allowed the US economy to grow so rapidly and to import so much from other countries that this is why The Asian miracle occurred. I've lived through the Asian miracle because the US has been running massively large trade deficits since the early 1980s and all these countries in Asia have been running massively large trade surpluses, and all this spending that the Americans have been doing has been fueled by this rapidly. Radically expansion of credit. Total credit first went through $1 trillion in 1964 now it's $100,000,000,000,000. 60 years later. Now our system is not capitalism. The government is very involved. Anytime there's any problem with the economy, the government steps in. In 2008 the government prevented a new Great Depression when the private sector the households defaulted on their debts and caused all the banks to fail, and Freddie Mac did fail and had to be taken over by the government. So at that time, we narrowly avoided a Great Depression, because the government increased its budget deficits by more than a trillion dollars a year for four years in a row, and the Fed expanded. The Fed created three and a half trillion dollars between the end of 2007 and 2014, expanding its balance sheet by about five times. So that's not capitalism. We don't have capitalism. So people who are worried about us abandoning capitalism. They're behind the times that happened a long time ago. That shouldn't be a concern. They should be aware now that we are competing against players who don't play by the capitalist rules of little government intervention in the markets we're now competing against China, and China is one giant sovereign wealth fund intent on dominating the world by investing very aggressively in new industries and technologies. In the year 2000 the United States invested, I think, 10 times as much in research and development as China did. But now China is actually investing more in research and development and the US is and that explains why China is ahead in so many areas of technology. They had 5g years before we did. They are the leaders in electric vehicles and batteries. We have to put up 100% tariffs to keep out electric vehicles from China because they're so much better than our electric vehicles. They dominate solar panels. And are worse, they have hypersonic missiles and we don't, and I'm sure they have other military advantages that we don't, because they invest much more aggressively in new industries and technologies than our government does. And if we don't rectify this quickly, then we are soon going to be overtaken by China militarily, and our national security is at risk, much more than most Americans understand. But this realization has slowly grown on policymakers in Washington, and now both parties are worried about this, and this is why we have this growing fear of China, and why we have proposals to limit technology transfers to China, and this is why we've done things like the chips and science act, where the government has agreed to finance a $280 billion investment in new industries and technologies a couple of years ago, with 50 billion of that going into setting up manufacturing facilities within the in the US to create semiconductors, rather than relying solely on Taiwan to obtain all of our semiconductors, because China could take Taiwan at any moment, and then then he would end up with all the semiconductor chips that go into powering artificial intelligence. And whoever develops Artificial General Intelligence first is going to rule the world, and therefore it had better be the United States rather than China, because we don't want to live in a world dominated by China, believe me.    Keith Weinhold  23:26   Well, a lot of macro voices agree with you. About two months ago, we had the president of the Mises Institute here, and the way he characterized things are in the United States. 100 years ago, we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism, and today we merely have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. Do you see the US sovereign wealth fund being able to solve all four of the United States big problems that you outlined, debt and deficit conquering by China, political division and creditism. Can it solve all four of those?   Richard Duncan  24:04   Yes, it can. So as you know, Keith, a couple of years ago, I published my fourth book. It was called the money revolution. Yeah? How to find the book? Sure, yeah. How to finance the next American century. It was a subtitle. Now I argue that it would be very easy for the US to invest on a multi trillion dollar scale, new industries and new technologies over the next decade, and if we do that through a sovereign wealth fund, then would generate so much growth and be so profitable that instead of causing the government debt to increase, it would actually make the economy so much larger and generate so many more tax revenues, and the government would make so many profits from these companies that it has equity stakes in that it would reduce the government debt in absolute terms, and radically reduce the government debt relative to GDP, which would grow far faster than it has been growing in recent decades. This problem, number one, solved the high level of government debt. A high level of debt to GDP just make the GDP grow a lot faster, and the ratio of debt to GDP will go down. Problem number two is the US is at risk of being conquered by China. We can out invest China. We can invest more than China can afford to invest. We still have the best universities and the best entrepreneurs and scientists. So if we invest on a large enough scale, we will win, and China will not conquer us. Third, if the economy is growing at 7% a year instead of 1% a year, that is going to alleviate a lot of the domestic tensions that exist currently, much of the reason there's the origins of this domestic political divide that we're now suffering from in the US is because such a large part of the population has been left behind when all the factories moved overseas, countries like China and Vietnam, we de industrialized, and the people who Used to have good factory jobs, good, unionized, high paying factory jobs. All those people were left out in the cold, and they're not happy about it. And so if our economy were growing much more rapidly, these people would have much better jobs and much higher salaries, and they would be much happier than they are at the moment. And the final one was our post capitalist system of creditism requires credit growth to survive. So if the government is financing these investments on a multi trillion dollar scale, it's going to make credit expand, and that's going to keep the economy expanding. So yes, it would solve all four of those problems.   Keith Weinhold  26:35   One of those four problems is the debt and the deficit. I want to dive into that more with Richard as it becomes more and more problematic in the United States, and just how far we can kick this can down the road. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with macro economist Richard Duncan. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.    Oh, geez. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. 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Text family to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group, NMLS, 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com   Jim Rickards  28:40   this is Author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  28:55   Welcome back to get rich education. We are going big this week, talking about the global economy, although mostly centered on the United States, with macroeconomist Richard Duncan. You can learn more about him at RichardDuncaneconomics.com and Richard I want to talk about the debt in the deficit. The debt is the United States overall debt as it accumulates year after year, and the deficit is just the annual thing, and it's so interesting and concerning. When I look at this, when you look at the line items in the United States government's annual spending, we now see that interest payments are taking the second largest chunk, only to Social Security. Social Security's number one interest is the second biggest expense, even more than defense spending and on Medicare. So I just wonder, as I see the interest payments going up and up and up and projected to be our greatest expense every year. You know, one thing I think about Richard is when our interest payments alone exceed our. Revenue somewhere down the road, is that when it's game over, or is that when we're on the way to game over? So can you talk to us about really, where the concern crops up with the deficit, like I talked about, and with the debt that's now at about $36 trillion   Richard Duncan  30:17   deficit and debt is a real problem. It was the first problem that I mentioned when we kicked off the conversation. There are two components of that. One is the fact that government debt has been increasing very rapidly. At the end of 2007 total government debt was around $9 trillion by 2014 it had doubled to $18 trillion because the government had to respond to the collapse of the private sector in 2008 and prevent us from having a great depression at that time, and then after 2014 it has doubled again, from 18 trillion to $36 trillion now, much of that was due to the need for the government to keep us from having another Great Depression during COVID When government stimulus amounted to about $5 trillion and the Fed created a similar amount over just a two year period. So now we have a much higher level of government debt. But the second component of that is that interest rates are very much higher than they used to be. The federal funds rate went up from 0% a few years back to a high of five and a quarter, actually a range between five and a quarter and five and a half. And recently, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. But you can still say it is 4.9% let's call it 4.9% so interest rates are far higher than they used to be, but they don't have to remain high. The reason interest rates went up is because the Fed increased the federal funds rate. And the reason the Fed increased the federal funds rate is because we had high rates of inflation. Inflation peaked at 9% or so in 2022 but most recently, the CPI has come back down to 2.4% and the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, that PCE Price Index, has come down to 2.2% and that means that the federal funds rate, which is 4.9% is more than twice as high as the inflation rate is. That shows us that we have very tight monetary policy, and the Fed should be able to reduce interest rates very rapidly going forward. They've told us in their dot plot projections that they expect that interest rates will end this year the federal funds rate at 4.4% and then in next year, at 3.4% and 2026 at 2.9% so that reduction in interest rates will bring down the cost of the total interest expense that you mentioned as being so high currently, the risk, however, is that we get a rebound in inflation. We're inflation to surge again, then interest rates won't come down. In fact, they could go higher. So all of my career, more or less, has been spent in Asia. And the main theme that is run through the global economy, the development of the global economy over the last three and a half decades has been globalization, globalization in the form of us running very large trade deficits with other countries. Literally, the US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $15 trillion meaning countries with the trade surpluses have had a $15 trillion trade surplus, and that's why they've all been transformed economically as a result of their trade surplus with the US, but what the US got out of this was the ability to buy things made with very low cost labor, and that was extremely disinflationary, that drove down the inflation rate in the US, and that allowed interest rates in the US to come down to very low levels that we've seen during most of this century, Up until the time COVID started. The real danger is now, if we do impose very high trade tariffs on China and our other trading partners, then that will cause a very serious spike in inflation. And it won't just be one off, because, of course, when the tariffs are put in place, that will immediately cause everything to be that much more expensive. The US companies importing goods from abroad would have to pay that tariff, then those US companies would pass those higher expenses on to the consumers, so we'd get an immediate spike in inflation. But that would also mean that the companies abroad it wouldn't be so profitable for them to have their manufacturing facilities abroad, they would try to bring those back home. And given that the unemployment rate in the US is so low already, only 4.1% there's not enough labor to allow these manufacturing facilities to come back to the US and start producing goods in the US. So that would cause an upward spiral. In wages and the wage push inflation spiral of the type that we had in the late 1960s and early 1970s so that is a In other words, tariffs would put an end to globalization, and that would cause a such a severe spike in inflation and interest rates, it would essentially be the death nail for creditism, which requires credit growth to survive. The end of globalization would mean this end of this 30 year global economic boom that the world has enjoyed, and therefore it is a very severe threat, and it would push up the interest expense of the US government, which you let off with, instead of lower interest rates, bringing down the interest expense the government has to pay every year, we would have instead higher interest rates, which would make the amount that the government has to pay on its interest even higher than it is at the moment, and make the budget deficit even larger than it is at the moment, and Make the government debt grow even faster than it's growing at the moment. So let's hope that doesn't happen. Instead, the better approach is to invest, to have the government finance large scale investments in new industries and technologies make the economy grow much more rapidly and we can grow our way out of this debt problem that we're currently in,   Keith Weinhold  36:21   yes more inflation, whether that comes from higher tarrifs or any other sources, will lead to higher interest rates to counteract that higher inflation, which will Yes, pump up the deficit in the debt that much more. And you know, one thing that I like about Richard is, you know, a lot of people complain about things, or say, what are we going to do? Or Things look bad, and Richard is saying some of that, but he offers a way forward with the US sovereign wealth fund, like he talked about before, investing our way out of it. So Richard, if we don't invest in this debt and deficit situation gets worse. It could be a hard question to answer, but I'd like your best guess at how far can we kick the can down the road? When is it game over? How big do our interest payments on the debt and deficit have to get?    Richard Duncan  37:10   the game is never over. No matter how bad things become, humanity will survive and carry on. So even in the Great Depression, people made it through, even through World War Two that resulted, largely as a result of the Great Depression. A lot of people died. 60 million people died, but the game didn't end. So regardless of how bad the economic system system were to become, humanity will survive and there will be a solution. Now, a lot of people put forward that, the idea that they point out that we have this high level of government debt, and their solution is to reduce government spending. The government spends something like $6.8 trillion last year. That was the amount the government spent. The budget deficit last year was 1.8 trillion so in order to eliminate the budget deficit, the government would have to spend $1.8 trillion less. In other words, it would have to cut its spending by 27% but the government cut its spending by 27% they're going to happen. The economy would immediately spiral into a depression. So even that reduction in spending wouldn't balance the budget, because the government revenues would collapse, and they would have even fewer tax revenues, so the deficit would still be there, the economy would collapse, and the unemployment rate would be 20 plus percent, and would just fall further behind China and be at greater risk from a national security perspective, and much more miserable As a society overall. That's why it's always say people should consider think of the words austerity and death at the same time, because austerity would bring about the collapse of our economic system and the Great Depression unless your civilization would survive it.  trying to answer your question more directly, how high could this go? Well, governments don't default on their debt when push comes to shove. If the government's having a hard time paying interest on its debt, the Fed will just print more money. And in a case where between 2008 and 2014 when the Fed created three and a half trillion dollars, they printed a lot of money at that short space of time, and they got away with it without having high rates of inflation. The highest rate of inflation we had during that period was 3.8% in 2011 and by the early months of 2015 we had deflation again for a few months. Prices actually fell negative CPI for a few months in 2015 so if we have a global economy, as we do at the moment, full of we have nearly 8 billion people, I would guess 2 billion of them at least live on less than $5 a day. So the US could get away with having a lot of paper money printing without having higher, very high rates of inflation and the government could finance itself that way for quite a long time. Of course, if we have a closed domestic economy brought about by extremely high tariff barriers, then we would end up with hyperinflation in the United States. But even with hyperinflation, it would be very painful for people who have all their cash in the bank or under their mattress, but people with assets, those asset prices would appreciate more or less in line with the inflation, and it would erode the government debt relative to the size of the economy, because the GDP would grow in nominal terms very rapidly because of the hyperinflation, and the debt, which is not inflation adjusted, would be evaporated away by the inflation.   Keith Weinhold  40:43    right? that's why here at GRE we are all invested and aimed toward prudent use of leverage with assets like real estate and we sure have been the beneficiaries of that wave of inflation that followed COVID there. Richard, well, we're talking about the debt and the deficit somewhat, which, interestingly, has actually doubled since the first time you were here on the show. When you were here, 10 years ago, it was at 18 trillion, and today it's at 36 trillion. We talked about, how far can you kick the can down the road back then? Well, here we are, 10 years later, and it's doubled. Talk to us. You know, you talked previously about the greatest risk to the United States economy. Tell us now, as we are investors here on this show, about the greatest risk to the real estate and stock market, I would just say within the next year. What are some of those risks to those particular markets?   Richard Duncan  41:38   We've already discussed the main risk that high tariffs would potentially cause a new spike of inflation and force the Fed to hike interest rates rather than cutting interest rates. But there are some other risk as well. One is the fact that we already have a very high level of wealth relative to income. Let me back up a second. You were talking about debt doubling since we first spoke 10 years ago. Here's another statistic for you. Just in the last four and a half years, the total wealth of the Americans, all of their assets minus all of their liabilities. In other words, household sector net worth. Since the end of 2019 it has increased by $47 trillion in four and a half years. That's about a 40% increase. Now, $47 trillion is enough to pay off the entire US government tip, which we've been worrying about with $11 trillion left over. So not everything is as bleak as it sounds on the surface. We've had a huge explosion of wealth in the last four and a half years that's been driven by property and also by stocks. The problem now is, is that the level of income the asset prices, are very inflated relative to their historic norms. And one of the ratios that I always keep an eye on is called the wealth to income ratio. It takes the household sector net worth. In other words, the wealth that we were just discussing, which, by the way, is now $164 trillion of wealth owned by the Americans. The wealth divided by income, disposable personal income, this wealth to income ratio is now an extraordinarily high level. The ratio is 785% whereas the average of that ratio going back to 1950 has been 550% the previous two peaks were in the year 2000 when it hit 620 during the NASDAQ bubble, and then that bubble popped, and the stock market crashed, and we had a recession, and it went back to 550 and then it surged to a new peak of 680 during the property bubble. And then that bubble popped, and we almost went into a depression, and that a lot of wealth was destroyed. We had a severe recession. The government had to bail us out from and that ratio went back to 550 again. Now it is just off the charts relative to its previous peaks, because people 680 now it's 785 so people used to suggest that higher asset prices were justified because interest rates were near 0% but even after the Fed hiked interest rates from near 0% to about 5% The asset prices have stayed inflated. That does suggest that asset prices are very inflated and therefore very vulnerable to any sort of shock that could occur, whether geopolitical or economic or domestic political problems. So that's a concern. Another concern is quantitative tightening is still occurring. Quantitative tightening is the opposite of quantitative easing. When, with quantitative easing, the Fed creates money and pumps it into the financial markets, and that tends to make asset prices go up, and it also tends to make interest rates on government debt stay low, because if it pushes up bond prices, it pushes down. Bond yields. Well, now the opposite is occurring. Over the last two years, the Fed has destroyed roughly $2 trillion it created $5 trillion from the end of 2019 till about 2022 during the COVID pandemic, and the policy response to that, the Fed created $5 trillion but now it's destroyed 2 trillion of that five that it created, and is still destroying dollars at the rate of about $60 billion a month, or $700 billion a year. And as it does, as it destroys dollars, it takes dollars out of the financial system, which all other things being the same, tends to make financial conditions tighter, putting upward pressure on bond yields and downward pressure on asset prices. So as this continues, this is a concern, because reduce the liquidity in the system by another $700 billion if it continues for another year, having said that there is still an enormous amount of excess liquidity in the system as a result of all of the money that the Fed has created, going back to 2008 I estimate that the excess liquidity is somewhere around three and a half trillion dollars. If you look at bank reserves and the reverse repos at the Fed is about three and a half trillion dollars of excess liquidity, and the Fed actually has to pay interest to the banks on their bank reserves to hold interest rates up. That's how the Fed controls the federal funds rate now. It pays the banks roughly right now, 4.8% interest on all of the banks bank reserves, and so the banks will not lend money to anyone at less than 4.8% interest, because the Fed will pay them 4.8% interest. Why would they lend to anyone else for less if it suddenly stopped paying interest on these bank reserves, these banks would look around and where would they invest their three and a half trillion dollars in? No one's going to pay them 4.8% or even 3.8% or 2.8% interest rates would plunge because of all the excess liquidity that exists. So this excess liquidity has been a thing that's been driving the economy since COVID started, and it's why we've managed to avoid recession, which everyone is expected to arrive any moment now for the last two and a half years. So there are concerns, but there are also, as always, other reasons for optimism.   Keith Weinhold  47:24   Well, that wealth to income ratio that Richard talked about, that's a calculation that you yourself can do. One's net worth is almost eight times their income now, which is at a historic high, which is one concerning point that Richard brought up. Well, Richard, I want you to tell us about your terrific video newsletter, macro watch unless you have any other last thoughts first.   Richard Duncan  47:51   well, just one last word on the US sovereign wealth fund. Thank you very much for giving me a chance to discuss that and to explain why both Democrats and Republicans are now in favor of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, one of the few issues that has bipartisan support. And this must come as a surprise to many of your listeners and most Americans, in fact, why have both parties agreed on really setting up a US sovereign wealth fund? So I'm glad I've had a chance to explain it and why it's so urgently necessary. I'd just like to emphasize the extraordinary benefits that this delivers to the American people, both individually and at a national level, individually, in terms of medical breakthroughs and better health and much more rapid economic growth for the economy, so much more wealth and much more national security as well. So I hope the Americans will get on board with this idea and give it their full support, because it's exactly what our country needs to solve all the four issues, the major issues that I laid out at the beginning of this conversation. But with that said, if your listeners would like to learn more about my work, Macrowatch. Microwatch is a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to affect the stock market, property, currencies and commodities. They can find macro watch on my website, which is RichardDuncanEconomics.com that's RichardDuncanEconomics.com Macro Watch has been going on now for 11 years, they'll find more than 100 hours of videos in the microwatch archives. They can begin watching immediately, and they'll receive a new video every couple of weeks. And I'd like to offer your listeners a subscription discount. If they go to Richard Duncan economics.com and hit the subscribe button, they'll be prompted to put in a discount coupon code, if they put it in G, R, E, they can subscribe to macro watch at a 50% discount. That's great. That's GRE so I hope they'll check that out, and at the very least, they can sign up there for my free blog and follow my work that way.   Keith Weinhold  49:56   And I have benefited from consuming macro watch content myself over the years, allowing me to sort of stretch my thought process and go macro, which we don't always do as real estate investors. Oh, Richard, it's been valuable as always, and you really offered a solution, a way forward here, something that's really refreshing. It's been great as always, having you back on the show.   Richard Duncan  50:18   Yeah. Thank you very much. I look forward to the next time   Keith Weinhold  50:21   me too. when it comes to the term capitalism, if that's truly a system that we're no longer in, you know, it seems to get replaced with the word meritocracy, and that is a word that I like, meritocracy, where producers get rewards for being productive, but even that is under attack, and the government just always seems to be stepping in with a safety net. Seemingly everywhere you look, it won't let banks fail. We saw them jump in early last year with Silicon Valley Bank and other bank failures, the government won't let homeowners fail either. I mean, you don't have to think back very far with mortgage loan forbearance in the COVID era, on issues of the debt and deficit. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has called it unsustainable. That's the word that he used. Like Richard said today, we won't default. We'll just print more. So when it comes to the inflation versus deflation tug of war, the future keeps looking inflationary, but at what rate of inflation? That's what I don't know, and no one really knows. If you like Richard Duncan's content, and you sort of wished he and I's conversation would go on. Well, he is a regular guest here, so I expect him back. But if you're telling yourself, I want more of his content and I want to make it visual at the same time to help really bring this to life, well, visit RichardDuncanEconomics.com hit the subscribe button and get 50% off. That's five zero, 50% off with the discount code. GRE. Happy Veterans Day. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  52:17   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you   Keith Weinhold  52:46   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

The Numbers Don't Lie on Rising Consumer Costs & Political Talk Ahead of the Election In this week's episode of Money Wise, the Money Wise guys discuss economic statistics, rising consumer costs, and why so many investors aren't ready to deploy capital until after the election. First, let's begin with a look at last week's numbers from Wall Street. The Dow was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 was down 1.4%, and the NASDAQ was down 1.5%. YTD all three indices remain in the black, with the Dow up 11.6%, the S&P 500 up 20.1%, and the NASDAQ up 21.5%. October showed a fairly flat month across the board, which may have to do with so many investors waiting to see how the elections will pan out before deploying additional capital. The guys also discuss the recent Microsoft hit, why we saw significant selling last week, and where the sales volume falls in relation to the daily moving average. Last week was also chock-full of economic stats, including the PCE Index. The Money Wise guys discuss the impacts of inflation and how so much in the consumers' “basket of goods” has gotten more expensive. Rising Consumer Costs: By The Numbers The Money Wise guys mention the PCE Price Index in this episode in relation to rising consumer costs. This index measures inflation by tracking the cost of living for households, and it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of prices in the U.S. The Money Wise guys discuss why rising consumer costs may be the reason we are seeing higher than normal early voting, as more voters cast their ballots with their pocketbooks in mind. For more on the PCE Index and rising consumer costs, check out this resource.  In the second hour, the Money Wise guys share important warnings about Equity Index Annuities. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

Firebrand speaker and author of “Killing Sacred Cows”, Garrett Gunderson, joins us to discuss wealth mindset and value creation. Also, Keith touches on the impact of falling interest rates on various loans and the economy noting that lower rates can benefit savers and investors. Historical data shows that home prices have only fallen 6 times in the last 83 years, signaling the rarity of significant price declines.  Learn about the Rockefeller method, which involves using trusts and whole life insurance to preserve and grow wealth. Garrett advocates for investing in real estate, businesses, and intellectual property rather than mutual funds or ETFs. DM Garrett on Instagram to receive a free copy of his book on the Rockefeller method. Resources: GarrettGunderson.com or  Alon Instagram @garrettbgunderson Join our upcoming GRE live event right here! - ‘New Turnkey Properties with ZERO Money Down' on Thursday 10/24. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/522 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai     Keith Weinhold  00:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about what falling interest rates really mean to you. 10 years of the GRE podcast, politics are overrated. How often do home prices fall? The latest in AI generated podcasting and then wealth mindset and wealth preservation all today on get rich education.   00:27 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  01:12 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  01:28 Welcome to GRE from Evansville, Indiana to Victorville, California and across 488 nations worldwide for an entire decade of your life now, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what does it mean that we're in an era of falling interest rates from the recent peaks, rates of all types have fallen. Mortgage rates have fallen. The Fed funds rate has fallen, and that prime rate has fallen too. I mean the prime rate that you pay, that's basically the Fed funds rate plus 3% and why the prime rate matters to you is that can affect credit cards, home equity loans, automobile loans and small business loans, every one of them down, down, down. So to any savvy investor that knows what's going on in the 21st century? This can mean celebration for your wallet, for your finances. And look in old days, lower rates, that would be bad news, not good news. And why is this? Well, in olden days, and some people still have an outdated mindset, lower rates are bad because savings accounts used to make sense back in the day, and lower interest rates means lower rates for savers on their bank, savings accounts. Yeah, those 5% online only savings accounts are going to four and a half with the Fed's half point rate cut last month. Well, 100 years ago, you could be a saver. That made some sense, because their interest rates could reliably beat inflation over time, but not today. Today, since inflation transfers wealth from lenders to borrowers and inflation redistributes wealth from savers to debtors. For those like us that understand this and act accordingly, we are indeed the beneficiaries of lower interest rates. Now, there are other effects out there in the economy. Cheaper loans could lead to more m&a activity, more mergers and acquisitions that can benefit investment banks like your Goldman Sachs that facilitates those transactions. Well, what happens to real estate prices amidst lower interest rates? What happens is that they tend to rise now here on the show, you remember that since 2022 I have discussed what has surprised a lot of people. Amidst rising interest rates, the environment that we used to have, home prices tend to rise. And it has happened again. When mortgage rates tripled, prices kept right on rising. So you might wonder, well, wait a second, which is it or I'm confused, amidst rising interest rates, home prices rise and amidst falling interest rates, home prices rise too. And the answer is yes, look at history over hunches. To our newsletter readers, I recently sent you that great chart, a table, I guess it showed the national home price, rate of appreciation or depreciation for every single year, going back to World War Two and from 1942 until today, those 83 years, how many times do you think that home prices fell over the last 83 years? There were exactly six, six of the last 83 years, only six where home prices fell. Paradoxically, interest rates don't have much to do with home prices, and this is all per Case Shiller statistics. Over the last 83 years, there were only six down years. 72 were up. Five were even. And of those six down years in the last 83 five of the six down years were tied up in a once. I mean, it took a once in several generations confluence, a cataclysm of events to occur during the global financial crisis, 2007 to 2011 all at once. Back then, it was a housing supply, surplus, disgustingly lawless mortgage market, cheap credit and a preponderance of debt in the banking system since World War 2, 83 years ago, there was only one other year when home prices fell, that was 1990 when they fell by 1%. If you're waiting for Home prices to fall substantially, it is super unlikely that that is going to happen. Just look at history, and today's market has more than the housing shortage in loads of protective homeowner equity, which means low delinquency rates, and we have permanently inflated higher prices baked into replacement costs of all kinds, land, architecture, engineering, permitting, regulation, labor, building, equipment, construction materials all over the place, but us, you know, as real estate investors, we might be more interested in rent appreciation than prices just four years ago, you know, just then to pay $2,000 to rent a single family home. I mean, that was quite a nice place in the Midwest and South. And today I have modest single family rentals built 50 years ago that are about 1200 square feet, and now they rent for $2,000 $2,000 a month's rent that is common today, and we are rooting for rents to appreciate faster than home prices. And if you want to get our newsletter, you're probably on that list by now, and reading it, I just send some of the best charts in real estate maps to you. You can sign up free right now. Just do it while it's on your mind. Text GRE to 66866, that's text GRE to 66866, for our Don't quit your Daydream Letter. Political season is heating up. We are at a time where we are one month from a general election, and that means we're electing a new president, vice president, 1/3 of the Senate, the entire house of representatives and various state and local officials. Yes, politics matter. Politics affect real estate. So why don't I discuss this more here on the show. Well, I explained that to you a while ago. It gets divisive, and it rarely affects people as much as they think. And as you know, I avoid even using words like Democrat, Republican, left, right, conservative and liberal. And why do I do that? Because they are divisive terms. The problem isn't so much politics. It's when people get infected with the partisan mind virus. Yes, they put party over country. For example, a partisan political instigator will swear to god that the economy is great now, but as soon as, say, a different party wins an election, even if the economy is the same, although now say that that same economy is awful. In fact, a couple years ago, I quit my job as a writer for a publication that you've heard of before. I no longer contribute to them. They put party before country, in my opinion, I wrote an article for them about two years ago, and my article made it sound like an eminent recession was a question, not a foregone conclusion. Well, the editor let me know that their consensus of writers feels like a recession is eminent and that I need to change my article to reflect that that's because they don't like the administration that's in power, so I quit rather than edit my article. I mean, if you just ask an American the question, this question, do you wish that America were less divided? Well. Any sane person would answer that question, yes. Well, then why would you go attach divisive labels to the other side and attack them? It makes no sense. That's where the division comes from. So really, it ought to be about solutions and ideologies and not political parties. So this is another reason why, during political season, I don't play those games, and we stick to investing the economy and wealth mindset. I mean, virtually no other country in the world drags out their presidential election cycle this long. I mean, it's like a year and a half. Remember all those debates last year and names like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy that were in the news all the time. I mean, other countries get this entire process over with in six weeks. Let's take a page from them, and that way we can have more constructive things in our news cycle.  Well, I am coming to you from the makeshift mobile GRE studio today, like I do some weeks, because this morning, I woke up in reading Pennsylvania. Reading is, in fact, my birthplace, and besides being the pretzel capital of the United States, one way that you know about reading is from the Reading Railroad property in the board game Monopoly. Yeah, it's one of the properties that you can buy and, I guess, collect rent on. And, you know, here we are a real estate show. So maybe it's appropriate that the namesake of my birthplace is immortalized as a property on America's best known real estate game. And it also might be appropriate that I'm back here because the 10th anniversary of the launch of this show is nigh this coming Thursday, on October 10, 1010, it will be 10 years since episode one of this show. And yes, the math, I suppose, checks out, because there are about 52 weeks in a year, and you are listening to episode 522, right now. Well, listen to this. This could blow your mind. Have you heard an AI generated podcast? And I don't just mean sort of where a robot reads a blog in monotone and then you listen to that audio file that's embedded in the article. No, that's not what I'm talking about. Here's what I mean. A few weeks ago, I learned that macroeconomist Richard Duncan, who was the first ever guest on this show back in 2014 Gosh, all these tie ins to GRE 's origins today? Well, Richard published some PDF charts, and he uploaded them to notebooklm.google.com, that's how you find this. And he clicked generate audio overview, and within three minutes, it had created a podcast with two virtual people having this pretty intelligent, engaging and even humorous conversation about his presentation on interest rates. I mean, wow, just listen to the first minute or minute and a half of this AI generated podcast here. And again, this is from about a month ago. So they're talking about the upcoming Fed rate cut that did indeed happen.   13:23 All right, ready to dive in. Today, we're tackling the big question everyone wants to know, will the Fed actually cut rates on September 18? It's the question on everyone's mind, for sure, and more importantly, for our listeners, what's it going to mean for them to help us unpack this whole thing. We're looking at this report. It's by economist Richard Duncan, called why the Fed will cut September 12, 2024. Duncan always brings unique perspective. He cuts right to the chase, which I appreciate. right! So let's jump right in. Duncan starts by talking about inflation, which, let's face it, we've all been feeling the heat from this past year. Yeah, it's been a wild ride. Inflation hit a pretty brutal 9% last year. I think my grocery bills are still recovering. Oh yeah, tell me about it. But the latest number shows down to 2.5% that's both by the CPI and importantly, the PCE Price Index, right? And that PCE is the one the Fed really keeps their eye on, exactly, which is why I wanted to ask you about that. Why is the PCE like the golden child for the Fed, why not just stick with the CPI? Everyone knows that one. well, It's all about getting the most accurate picture of inflation. Think of it like this. The CPI is like taking a quick glance at prices. You know, just a snapshot in time. Okay with you, but the PCE, that's more like a movie. It captures how our spending habits change as prices change, and that gives the fed a better look at those underlying trends driving inflation. So it's like the CPI with a little bit of a crystal ball. It's trying to anticipate what's going to happen. It's got it okay? So inflation seems to be cooling down, which is good news, right?   Keith Weinhold  14:56 Gosh, that's just really good, a totally realistic sounding AI generated podcast just from some PDF files. The macro economist Richard Duncan uploaded remarkable and you know that the quality of that is only going to get better. That's probably about as bad as it's ever going to be right there. And in fact, in another 10 years, listeners could find it rather cute or quaint that we find this remarkable today. A big thanks to Richard Duncan for allowing us to play that and also expect Richard to be back here with us on the show again before the year ends, and here on the 10th anniversary week of the GRE podcast, you know, it makes me wonder how expendable my job as podcast host is going to be. I hope that I'm here with you in another 10 years, and I completely plan to be.  Well  episode number one of the get rich education podcast back from 2014 is called your abundance mindset. So it's apropos to visit a mindset topic today I'm going to do that with firebrand Speaker This week's guest, Garrett Gunderson. Here shortly, do you want to live a life that is small and safe and sheltered? I doubt that you really do, but you know, safe decision after safe decision, that's what most people end up doing. Do you want your kids to live a small, safe, sheltered life? I mean, most parents want safety for their children, but they're going to have an outsized impact on others when they study and then take the right risks. We're discussing those types of wealth creation mindsets with Garrett. He's a really talented guy. He was last with us six years ago. He's done some stand up comedy. Many have remarked that Garrett looks like Jesus Christ. He's the author of some popular books, including killing sacred cows. Let's talk to Garrett. This week's guest is a pretty well known author and speaker. He helps you make, keep and grow your money to help you live your best life. He's an especially dynamic speaker, public speaker, and I'm confident that you'll be able to hear that on the show today, because he has a great knowledge base, and he speaks with this conviction on topics that make him so compelling. Hey, it's been a few years. Welcome back to GRE Garrett Gunderson.   Garrett Gunderson  17:38 good to be back. I thought that was a very honest, like, pretty well known, like, I'm not really well known pretty well. That's just enough to annoy my wife. Like, I'll be going through an airport and someone come over and talk to me, and she's like, ah, but I love it, dude. I love conversations with people that I don't know, and I just get to meet because if they engage in my work, it gives us a chance to connect. And sometimes it makes me look cool to my kids, which is always a good thing. You know what I'm saying, like my son will be with me and someone say, hey, love killing sacred cows, or, Hey, are you that guy on YouTube? I'm like, it could be me, or you might be thinking, I'm Jesus. You know what I'm saying. I look familiar, though.   Keith Weinhold  18:14 Yeah. Now you can tell your kids that I said you are pretty well known. And you know, Garrett, you're also a really keen and perceptive person. You can tell if somebody's poor within 60 seconds of what they say. Tell us about that.   Garrett Gunderson  18:31 Oh, man, that video has so much hate. Man. I put that out like it was my son's filming, and I'm just sitting in our kitchen, and I was just thinking about a conversation I had earlier that day, and in the conversation, it was like, more about complaining about the world, saying that they couldn't afford things, saying they didn't have the time, blaming everyone for their situation. And I was like, man, it's pretty easy to tell. And 60 seconds, I mean, I guess maybe is a rash statement, because maybe it takes three minutes or 300 seconds, like five minutes, and get deep enough, but you just find that there's a certain language to poverty, and whether that's just poor in spirit, whether it's poor in mind, or whether it's poor in the bank account, typically it's devoid of personal responsibility. It's leading the levels of inspiration. And this isn't to say that if you're wealthy, that you only speak inspiring conversations. I mean, I complain sometimes that happens. I get frustrated. I get disappointed in myself for not being nicer to a customer service person and like, have to really manage that sometimes. But ultimately, it's this language that is almost like a Marxist type of language, you know, that comes from a place of like, I want this. I'm owed that we deserve this. And I'm like, wait, wait, wait, like, who's going to produce that? And so it's something that's a fairly easy thing to detect with just a few questions. Like, if I'm given one question, I can tell in 60 seconds for sure.   Keith Weinhold  19:57 Yeah. I think a lot of times people start complaining. About something. People find money a scarce resource when they start, you know, complaining about gas prices or something like that, I think that's just really a classic one. It tells me where they're coming from. I mean, it tells me what their mind is occupying.   Garrett Gunderson  20:12 Right.  And if we're not excited about our future, if we're not developing our skill sets, if we're not really engaged in the world of value creation, it's easy to get frustrated about tax it's easier to get frustrated about inflation. It's easier to get complaining about interest rates or loan rates and all those kind of things. But what I find is the best way to outpace inflation is through skill set, and if we truly invest in ourselves and invest in other people so that we increase our quality of life and our enjoyment of it along the way, we increase all the skill sets that matter. You've mentioned that I'm a decent public speaker and that I'm articulate. That comes from going through writing courses and hiring speaking coaches and just getting the reps and doing comedy and the things that will help me to become a more effective communicator. And then it's really about becoming a better cash flow investor. I know that you teach people a lot around, you know, real estate and investing, and that's one of the big three assets in my mind, that helps people generate and create cash flow. But most people are trapped in this indoctrination where they set money aside and forget it. They wait for 30 years and hope for the best. They're very one dimensional of just paying off a loan and then hoping the retirement plan is going to get them there. And that's why they end up in this mindset where they're like, oh, I don't feel in control, because the outcome of my income is something that's dictated by the economy and not my own willpower, not my own skill set, not my own value creation. And I think that's why retirement is such a bad and faulty notion. My main statement in life is create the life you don't want to retire from. Now, I get it. In the industrial age, people need to retire because they were being worked to death and they weren't living for very long. It was an immensely valuable concept back then, a blue to collar world back then? Yeah, right. But in today's world, what if people just invested more time in selecting your career that mattered or had enough faith and took a leap on themselves to start becoming a better investor or start a business or be an entrepreneur where they get upside potential, instead of just begging for safety and security, instead of just wanting the entitlement of benefits, instead of just trading time for money, like that's an industrial age concept that we watched, whether it's our parents or grandparents, go through trading time for money, but we're in a world where that's not required any longer, because we do have technology, we do have artificial intelligence, we do have these things that are starting to displace The jobs that no one really wants to do because it beats down the body, and there's a lot of opportunity for those that are willing to grasp it and go for it, but it comes down to one key thing, value creation. And if we're going to be devoid of value creation, it's easy to tell in 60 seconds whether someone's poor because value creation was not part of their concept or their purview.   Keith Weinhold  22:40 And value creation is about expanding that upside. And a lot of poverty mindsets just complain about the downside their expenses. And you can't really do that much about your expenses. You can only lower them so much. Anytime you do, you're probably diminishing your quality of life anyway. And really, I think a lot of this mindset of lack Garrett comes back to the fact that, simply, most believe that money itself is a scarce resource. I probably believe that at one time, when I was younger, maybe you did too. And as I like to say, although I wasn't the first person that said it, the only place that you get money is from other people. So most people, which tend to be employees, think their way to increase their income is only if their employer gives them a raise, or maybe if they find a new employer that pays them maybe 10% more, or something like that. So they're limiting their upside over there because they think money's a scarce resource, because it's got to come from an employer. Somehow they're not thinking about, why don't you really expand your upside and start an Amazon business, or rent cars through Turo or Airbnb rentals, or what we do here at get risk education, help people with long term housing rentals. So it just kind of comes back to the fact that, you know, people's mind is closed off, and they just simply want to believe that money is a scarce resource.   Garrett Gunderson  23:57 They're adding to computer screens as we talk about this, you know, I mean, there's never been more money in the world than there is today. It's the most money there's ever been. We keep adding it. There's, you know, so much of it out there. But even if they stopped printing it, or they stopped adding it to balance sheets, there's an infinite number of times they can exchange hands. So if we use it to buy computers and clothes or food and shelter or entertainment like comedy and concerts, the more times money exchanges hands, the more values created. It's exchange that facilitates and creates wealth in the way that we create exchanges, serving others, solving problems and adding value. And here's the deal, we can have two parties do exchange with one another and both end up wealthier. It doesn't need to be a win, lose transaction. As a matter of fact, when people transact, they agree that what they bought was worth more than their money, or if they sold it, they agree that the money was more than what they sold. Otherwise they would have kept it. We don't do equal exchange. I wouldn't give you $1 for $1 right? There's no reason to exchange. It's unequal, which means, if you can provide something more efficiently than. I can for myself. I can pay you, which frees up my time to do what I most efficiently and effectively can do. I did triathlons because I was an idiot back in the day. Sorry for those triathletes, which is like a lot of work, man. And I don't love swimming, but I remember going to buy a triathlon bike. I just bought, like, a road bike. It was a big upgrade from having a huffy from Walmart, you know, like, oh, this $4,700 this is a while back, but it was carbon fiber. It was, like, amazing. And I thought, you know, I could never build this. So this $4,700 is actually really cheap, because I'm giving him $4,700 to build something that I can then go build something like write a book or do some consulting or do a speech that can inspire someone. And so that exchange was valuable. It's like if you bought killing cigarette cows. For me, you're saying that it was worth more than $20 I'm saying it was worth less because I already have the knowledge in my head, and so we both can end up wealthier. Unequal exchange is what facilitates wealth. What it lets us do is tap into our best abilities and tap into other people's best abilities. And that exchange ends up growing over time, and the more times money circulates because of Good Services and experiences, the more output there is. So look at today. Hundreds of years ago, if you wanted to listen to music, you had to hire a quartet. Now it's free for almost anyone, if you have any device of any sort, if you're willing to listen to a commercial here or there, you can listen to anything that you want. For the most part, you don't even have to pay for it. So think about that advancement. If you want to be anywhere in the world, you could be there in almost 24 hours or less, back in the day, that would have taken, you know, years for that matter. I mean, we have so much more wealth because we keep building upon previous wealth, previous ideas, and those blueprints we continue to grow from with new innovation and ingenuity. Therefore, the quality of life for someone that's middle class today is infinitely more than the middle class of hundreds of years ago, the amount of people that are hungry today versus years ago, even though we have more than 8 billion people on the planet, has gone down as a percentage, not up as a percentage. That's because of velocity and exchange. It's because of this notion that money's not scarce and resources have the way to be replenished, as long as we're stewards. Now, if the bison, if we kill too many of them, then they can't replenish, right? But if we manage that properly, you could actually eat the bison, use the skins, do all that kind of stuff, and still have that exist in the future. These people that don't believe in that believe that there's like a finite pie, that if one thing's gone, it's gone forever, not understanding value exchange, reproduction, apparently, and basic science either. And again, we can overdo those things and damage an ecosystem. So there is a balance.   Keith Weinhold  27:36 Yeah, that's right, when you talk about value creation, then you're really not talking about a person going out and trying to get their piece of the pie. Really more accurately what you're talking about. Here are ideas for expanding the entire pie.   Garrett Gunderson  27:51 Spam the pie. Expand your means you can budget and reduce. You said it eloquently. You said, Hey, there's only so much you can do in reduction of expenses before it just starts infringing and taking away from things that you value in life. There's a finite game there, but the expansion gain through co creation, through collaboration, instead of through competition, is absolutely an infinite pie that continues to grow as we add more value, as we serve more people, as we solve bigger problems, as we more deeply impact the people that we impact as we reach more people, these are things that can lead to more dollars. So I have this thing called the value equation. It's our mental capital, ideas, knowledge, wisdom, insights, strategies and tools multiplied by our relationship capital, people, networks, organizations, communities, friends, family, mentors, equals our financial capital. So financial capital is a byproduct of our stewardship of our mental and relationship capital. And the bridge between mental relationship capital is what we call business, or we call investing. So ultimately, Money Follows value. How do we add more value? Have a better idea. Impact more people. More more deeply. Impact the people you currently serve. Collaborate and offer more like it's an infinite pie and an infinite game. If we play it that way.  We're talking with speaker and author Garrett Gunderson, about the mindset of wealth creation. More. We come back with Garrett. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  29:01 hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they've provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings if your money isn't making 4% Percent, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work. With minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text family 266, 866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, family 266, 866,   Hal Elrod  30:54 this is Hal Elrod author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get it rich. Education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.     Keith Weinhold  31:10 welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with firebrand speaker and author Garrett Gunderson. You can learn more about him at Garrettgunderson.com. Garrett before the break, we were talking about the mindset in opening up one in order to create more wealth over time. Here, a lot of times, one way we talk about that is, don't just get your money to work for you. Get other people's money to work for you. You could actually use other people's money ethically three ways at the same time, in real estate, using the tenant's money for the income stream the government's money for generous tax incentives, and then the bank's money for the leverage, which is actually a greater wealth building force than compound interest. That's one example of how we do that here. But when one has become successful, oftentimes they want to make sure that that's lasting. They want to build a legacy, something that they can carry on. And I know you articulate that through the Rockefeller method. So do you want to tell us more about that?   Garrett Gunderson  32:05 I wrote this book. What would the Rockefellers do back in 2016 this study between really wealthy families versus their wealth lasted, versus wealthy families that decimated it, and the best study was really the Vanderbilt because they had more money than the US Treasury. One the railroad family, yeah, transportation. And you know what? They destroyed that Cornelius died, and then his eldest son doubled the estate nine years and then he died, and that was the last time their estate grew. It started to decrease after that. And 54 years later, the first Vanderbilt died broke, and so the last Vanderbilt family union didn't have any millionaires at it. I know everybody knows about like Vanderbilt University. They donated like, a million dollars to get that started. But, you know, that was pretty inconsequential compared to their overall net worth. But they didn't have a formula or format to create sustainable wealth. They own 10 mansions in in Manhattan. They don't own those anymore. They own the breakers in Rhode Island. The state of Rhode Island owns that now. So they lost this massive amount of wealth where the Rockefellers are just entering their seventh generation of passing on, well, seven generations, wow. And people that worked for the rock bellers, like the executives, they're still passing on, well, for this generation after generation. And most people don't make it past the third generation. And we could look at, you know, people like Walt Disney. We could look at people like JCPenney. We could look at people, you know, like the the Kennedy family and so many others that have used these two things to really create sustainable wealth. Number one is they use trust. The Rockefellers coined the term own nothing and control everything, whether that's a revocable living trust for people who are just starting out and don't have a substantial amount of wealth, or a domestic asset protection trust for those that have a decent amount of wealth, those are the two main popular ones. There are some offshore trusts. It gets onerous and complicated once you go offshore, but it does protect your assets. The second piece is using whole life insurance, so they have this death benefit that's on the insured, and they put that on their heirs, so that every time an heir dies, it replenishes the trust, and potentially even grows it, because there's these threats to the family wealth, there's taxes, there's inflation, there's interest rate fluctuations or market, you know, economic turmoil. So what they're doing is they're creating that level of stability, and they give them preferred interest rates to borrow from the trust versus a bank. So now your family can actually earn interest instead of paying interest. And yes, if your family is paying interest, they're paying it back to their future generation at Preferred rates. And so you could be one generation away from never needing a bank again and actually being able to capitalize on deals a whole lot faster. Specifically, we use whole life, because it transfers the risk to the insurance company. There's six or seven companies that are participating, mutual companies that have been around for over 150 years, always paid dividends. It protects your cash value from taxes. It protects it from liability and bankruptcy in over 40 states, fully and partially in every state. So what happens is, for an asset allocation decision. You can start moving some of your fixed income portfolio to this and have a better, more robust benefits type of situation, and then actually start to implement this Rockefeller method so that you can create generational wealth.   Keith Weinhold  35:12 All right, so the Rockefeller method using trusts and whole life insurance to preserve and grow your wealth, so as one's building their portfolio, amassing wealth, increasing income streams as they go along in their investor journey. Is there anything that they should keep in mind as they try to integrate some of these things from the Rockefellers?   Garrett Gunderson  35:12 Yeah, a lot of other insurance people try to sell these index universal life policies, but those won't work because they have too many levers of risk, and especially when you're building cash value, you might use that cash value to buy real estate. Then you might use the rental income to put the money back into the policy so you can buy more real estate in the future. So it becomes like a medium storage shed or unit for your cash that's protected, but now it comes with the death benefit, which, here's one example, for a real estate investor, instead of just, you know, rolling it over to the next property and rolling it over to the next property when you eventually sell, you can use a charitable trust. And a charitable trust, you can donate that highly appreciated piece of real estate, get a partial tax deduction, sell it and fund the trust and pay zero tax on your gains. No matter what your basis is, there's no tax on the gains. You're the first beneficiary of the trust, meaning you can take an income between 5% and 50% from the trust while you're alive, depending on the underlying assets, and then when you die, the charity keeps whatever's left over. But if you have a life insurance policy that will replenish what that donation was, therefore giving you 20 30% or more increased cash flow with an asset by making a synergistic allocation. Now, that's a lot of information in a short period of time, but it's more about planting seeds. And don't worry, I'll give everybody a copy of the book at no charge, so they can kind of read it at their own pace, or you can listen to it at their own pace, versus me condensing it into just a couple minutes.   Keith Weinhold  36:56 Oh, thanks. All right, well, we'll learn more about that resource at the end that sounds like that can be really helpful to a lot of people. And I guess Garrett, even though you're not as real estate ish as me, as we wind down here, you know, I think the place that you and I find the most common ground is we often say and help people with the things that sort of fly in the face of conventional guidance. I mean, you really just don't have to think about it that much more than if you just do normal stuff, average, mediocre stuff, you're only going to have a normal, average, mediocre outcome. So can you tell us about any last things that can help get people thinking differently and debunk some of this conventional guidance that really will never help get you much above lower middle class?   Garrett Gunderson  37:40 Yeah, if you're putting your money in mutual funds and ETFs, you're making a bunch of other people money. I mean, the big three is you want to focus on generating cash flow so you can create financial independence. Because if you have enough cash flow from assets to cover your expenses, every active dollar can build more assets. That's an exponential benefit to you. So now that you don't have to be forced to work, you've got a lot more freedom. And the big three for me are real estate businesses or intellectual property, which is kind of, you know, something that is part of business to a degree, but I consider a different asset class. Those are the big three. I have no money in the stock market. I have money in my businesses. I invest in myself. I invest in my vision. I invest in a team, instead of investing in things that I have no control over and I don't get cash flow from and that the economy can change, or that Wall Street's making money on whether I make money or not. So that's just one notion that I think we could probably, you know, agree, flies in the face of what everybody's teaching. That's the masses. But when you look at the wealthiest people, it's how they're implementing and what they're doing.   Keith Weinhold  38:39 And I think another place that conventional guidance really tells people to prioritize is paying down debt or paying off debt. I mean, making your debt free scream at age 34 you know, maybe that's not so bad, but maybe not. I mean, did paying down low to moderate interest rate debt and making that priority sacrifice your lifestyle and your family's lifestyle the entire time while you were doing it, and did it have a steeper opportunity cost, because you were not investing those dollars in things that can earn a greater return than their interest rates were they're using some of the vehicles that you talked about. So, you know, I guess what I'm getting at Garrett philosophically, one way I said it, is that the risk of delayed gratification is denied gratification?   Garrett Gunderson  39:23 Yeah, I mean, if we become sacrifice, how do we ever overcome that habit? I'm I'm scrimping, I'm sacrificing, yeah, I'm deferring. And then one day, what you're supposed to flip the switch be like, Okay, now I'm abundant. I'm gonna enjoy this money that doesn't happen. So that habitual notion of reduce, cut, eliminate, no one shrinks their way to wealth. It's a game of expansion and production. Yes, be efficient, be intelligent, be a steward, but don't become a miser, because misers, no matter how much money they have, never get to feel what it's like to live their richest life. It's always about elimination. Instead of enjoyment and utilization.   Keith Weinhold  40:02 Oh, that is just beautifully stated. I really can't say it any better than that, and that really brings it back full circle as to the best personal finance is probably growing your means rather than practicing living below your means for decades, and then you'll never get that time back. Well, Garrett, you've generated so many good educational resources. Why you've been the successful author and speaker. Tell us more about that.   Garrett Gunderson  40:26 Garrettgunderson.com is where a lot of those resources are. I write a blog like it's 2006 because I love to write and just get information out there. I've created a money persona quiz. So if you go forward slash tools on Garrettgunderson.com you can figure out what's the success or sabotage that happens subconsciously with how you deal with money. It's very informative and useful. I've written 10 books. I offered that if people DM me on Instagram, Garrett B, Gunderson, two R's, two T's, middle initial B and just say, Keith, get rich. Keith get rich. So I know it was on this program, I'll hook you up with the audio and a PDF of the book on me, so that you can hopefully just understand this Rockefeller method and improve your life and start building a legacy right now. Because if you're already doing real estate, that's great, let's make sure to preserve, protect and even perpetuate that wealth with some of the structures that could be integrated.   Keith Weinhold  41:17 Well Garrett, yeah, you have a lot of great resources and just a really wide spectrum of understanding of concepts all across a personal finance field. Is there any last thing you'd like to let our audience know about?   Garrett Gunderson  41:28 Just create the life you don't want to retire from. Design a life that you love. Create enough cash flow from assets to have that economic independence so you have choice and freedom daily of what you do and swing for the fences in that purpose, you know, that's probably the best advice that I could give.   Keith Weinhold  41:43 Why would you want to live your life any other way? Garrett Gunderson, it's been valuable as expected. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.   Garrett Gunderson  41:51 Thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold  41:58 Yeah, a lot on both mindset and long term wealth preservation with Garrett Gunderson today, now, 15 weeks ago, on episode 507 you'll remember that episode called compound interest is weak, where I made a takedown about how compound Interest actually is not serving people. Leverage does serve people. Garrett also makes a takedown and critiques this myth about how people think compound interest builds wealth. A little review. There some comprehension from 15 weeks ago, compound interest has most people counting on the average annual return when they should be focused on the compound annual growth rate. A little review. Remember the average annual return means if you're up 10% one year and then down 10% next year that you broke even. That's the arithmetic thing. But that is a lie. The reality is in this CAGR, the compound annual growth rate, it reflects, if you're up 10% one year and then down 10% the next year, you're at minus 1% the geometric thing. And that's the reality, and that makes a retirement lifestyles worth of difference, and a retirement ages worth of difference like I thoroughly broke down for you in episode 507 coming up on the show here in future weeks, a familiar name like Tom wheelwright returns, and then new guests, like a former NFL player here on the show, if you want to reach out to Garrett Gunderson on Instagram for his best free resources, even the audio and pdf of his Rockefeller method of generational wealth preservation, again on Instagram, you can DM him at Garrett B Gunderson, he let me know later, all you have to do is send him my first name, Keith, and he will hook you up there. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I am supremely grateful and even in awe of your devoted listenership for an entire decade of your life and mine, here's to another 10 years. Don't quit your Daydream.   44:21 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively,   Keith Weinhold  44:49 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth. Building, get rich, education.com, you.

Singapore stocks began the day trading in negative territory, despite overnight gains in global markets.  In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) dropped 0.1 per cent to 3,580.11 points after 30.8 million securities changed hands in the broader market.  In terms of companies to watch today, we have CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust. The trust will issue 377.3 million new units to raise gross proceeds of about S$757.2 million from its preferential opening that closed on Tuesday.  Elsewhere from how shares of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and Yangzijiang Financial traded divergently earlier today to Chinese stocks set to register its best week since 2008 – more corporate and international headlines remain in focus.  Also on deck – one last look at expectations for the US August PCE price index due tonight. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Sunny Soh, Lead Technical Analyst (Capital Markets & Investor Education), SIAS.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Singapore stocks kicked off the trading day on a bright note after global equities finished the trading week in positive territory. That's ahead of a highly anticipated September interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) rose  0.1 per cent to 3,446.66 points after 44.9 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch today, we have Nio. The Chinese electric vehicle carmaker yesterday announced it delivered 20,176 vehicles in August. This is 4.4 per cent more than the corresponding year-ago period.  Elsewhere, from a low down on the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index numbers out on Friday, to more on crypto exchange OKX in Singapore – more international and corporate headlines remain in focus.  Also on deck – how US hotel workers were on strike across the US yesterday.  On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments of the day.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Singapore shares rose this morning, after US indices were mixed and Europe's main stock index closed higher overnight. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) was up 0.4 per cent at 3,418.01 points after 55 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch today, we have Singapore Airlines. The flag carrier today announced it received approval from India's government for foreign direct investment into the entity resulting from the merger Vistara and Air India.  Elsewhere, from more on the US Dow Jones Industrial Average logging a record high, to expectations on the latest US PCE Price Index numbers, more international headlines remain in focus. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Sunny Soh, Lead Technical Analyst (Capital Markets & Investor Education), SIAS.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Will and Ben look at several economic factors influencing ag markets, and a potential spark in wheat markets.Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close): » September 2024 corn down $.04 at $3.96» December 2024 corn down $.03 at $4.12 » September 2024 soybeans down $.34 at $10.30» November 2024 soybeans down $.29 at $10.39» September soybean oil down 3.64 cents at 42.58 cents/lb» September soybean meal up $9.20 at $335.00/short ton» September 2024 wheat down $.17 at $5.31» July 2025 wheat down $.16 at $5.92» October cotton down 2.53 cents at 67.51 cents/lb» December cotton down 1.46 cents at 69.21 cents/lb » September WTI Crude Oil down $3.65 at $74.76/barrelWeekly highlights:The US economy grew by 2.8% in Q2 2024, up from 1.4% in Q1 and surpassing expectations of 2.1%, driven by strong consumer spending.The PCE Price Index showed a slight monthly increase (+0.1%), with annualized inflation easing to 2.5% from 2.6% in May.US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel stocks decreased, while implied gasoline demand rose 8%.Ethanol production declined by 3 million gallons to 322 million gallons. Ethanol producers must maintain high production levels to meet corn usage estimates.A US court sent a 2022 EPA ruling on refinery waivers back for review, creating uncertainty in the RIN market.Open interest rose for corn (+1.5%), wheat (+0.6%), soybean oil (+3.8%), cotton (+3.5%), and rough rice (+11.9%), but fell for soybeans (-0.8%) and soybean meal (-0.1%).Managed money reduced net short positions in grains and oilseeds by 20,677, with significant buying in corn, soybeans, and wheat. Net selling continued in cotton and rough rice.Corn and soybean selling increased, with net long positions reduced by 38.2% and 39.0%, respectively.The Spring Wheat Tour estimated 2024 HRS wheat yield at 54.5 bushels/acre, up from 47.4 last year, with increases in durum and HRW as well.Weak sales for old crop US grains and oilseeds; strong new crop sales for corn and soybeans. Corn export sales hit a marketing year high, while soybeans fell below expectations.Export inspections were near the high end of expectations for corn, soybeans, and wheat; sorghum inspections slightly down.US corn conditions improved to 68% good to excellent, while soybean ratings fell to 67%. Cotton conditions declined to 49%, and spring wheat dropped to 74%.Topics:» Market recap» EPA to reassess SREs» GDP shows strong increase» Personal expenditures rise» Crop conditions continue improvement » Wheat markets discussionConnect with Brownfield Ag News:» Get the latest ag news: https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/» Subscribe to Brownfield on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BrownfieldAgNews» Follow Brownfield on X (Twitter): https://x.com/brownfield» Follow Brownfield on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BrownfieldAgNewsAbout Brownfield Ag News:Brownfield Ag News is your trusted source for reliable agriculture news, market trends, weather updates, and expert interviews. Get comprehensive coverage and stay ahead in the ever-evolving agriculture industry.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A brief look at financial markets with Bokor in the Morning brought to you by Steve Bokor at Ventum Financial Corp. a member of CIPF

Last week, mega-cap momentum stocks concealed broader market weakness, with hawkish Federal Reserve comments and disappointing Salesforce results driving declines. However, the week ended positively as the PCE Price Index aligned with a downward inflation trend, although the S&P 500 broke its five-week winning streak. This week, the focus shifts to Friday's May jobs report, the final one before the Federal Reserve's June meeting. Debate continues over potential rate cuts, but resilient economic indicators suggest the Fed may hold rates steady, while the stock market remains capable of performing well without cuts. The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

Come with us as we leap through the gallows and levitate down WallStreet.

Singapore stocks opened muted this morning after data for Singapore's headline and core inflation in February came in hotter than anticipated.   Figures released yesterday showed that headline inflation for February climbed to 3.4 per cent year on year, up from 2.9 per cent in January.  In terms of companies to watch, shares of Lum Chang fell more than 10 per cent this morning after the company revealed that its managing director, David Lum, had “attended several interviews” with the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB) to assist on the latest charges filed against Singapore's former transport minister S Iswaran. Elsewhere, from Singapore's latest factory numbers to the founder of China's battery manufacturer CATL pressing ahead with expansion amid slowing EV sales globally – more local and international headlines remain in focus.   Also on deck – Donald Trump! On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with James Cheo, Chief Investment Officer, Southeast Asia and India at HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Singapore shares opened flat this morning, despite overnight gains in global markets. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) was flat, falling just 0.09 point to 3,141.76 points after 77.7 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch today, we have ComfortDelGro. The transport operator announced a net profit of S$102 million for the second half of 2023, up 76.5 per cent from S$57.8 million in the year-earlier period. Elsewhere from a breakdown of the latest personal consumption expenditures or PCE Index out of the US to the Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda stopping short of declaring the 2 percent price inflation target met, more international headlines are in focus. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Sunny Soh, Lead Technical Analyst (Capital Markets & Investor Education), SIAS.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Singapore shares fell at the opening bell this morning, after a mixed performance in global markets. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) fell 0.3 per cent to 3,148.09 points after 56.6 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch for today, we have OCBC, after the lender's net profit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2023, rose 12 per cent to S$1.62 billion from S$1.44 billion a year prior. Elsewhere from China's thrifty shoppers creating new stock winners and losers to a lookahead to Fed officials comments and key economic indicators out of the US, more international headlines are in focus. Also on deck – Apple's move to give up on billions in potential revenue in abandoning plans for a self driving car. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian dived into the details with David Poh, Head of Investment and ESG Strategies, South Asia, Amundi.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fed-Speak, PCE Price Index Data & Annualized Returns The Money Wise guys are back in the studio and this week's topics include the PCE Price Index, confusing Fed-speak and so much more. The guys kick things off with a look at last week's numbers from Wall Street. The Dow was up 1.3%, the S&P 500 was up 1.7%, and the NASDAQ was up 1.4%. YTD the Dow is up 3.8%, the S&P is up 6.7%, and the NASDAQ is up 6.6. Well, it was quite a week! The guys discuss the S&P's annualized return - which is surprising yet highly unlikely to remain up this much. The guys ponder how much of the Q1 performance we're seeing now is going to slow down as the year goes on, and they share confusion about this week's contradictory Fed-speak regarding interest rate cuts. What will the timeline really look like? Well, the Money Wise guys think we have many more months before we see cuts. They also discuss expected Personal Consumption Expenditures numbers, also known as the PCE Price Index, which we'll see next week, and which could push rate cuts back by as much as a quarter. Understanding the PCE Price Index The PCE Price Index, which is the common abbreviation for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is expected next week. Why does the PCE Price Index matter? Well, this number is released each month as part of the Personal Income & Outlays report. The PCE Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States are paying for goods and services, meaning it relates to inflation. To learn more about the PCE Price Index and how it differs from the Consumer Price Index, check out this explanation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys discuss the RIA vs. Broker differences you need to know. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

Here's what is happening in the markets today, Friday, December 1st - Stocks ended the day mixed: Dow and S&P higher, Nasdaq lower - Dow makes new high for the year - S&P 500 closes November 8.9% higher - PCE Price Index rose only 3.5% on an annual basis - Powell speaks at 11am ET in Atlanta - Tesla lower ahead of revealing of Cybertruck - Ulta (ULTA) jumps more than 10% on better than expected earnings PLUS: How we trade these markets and our current positions This wraps up today's stock market news. If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast.  And for more stock market news,  visit our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/rockwelltrading2008 #todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

Singapore stocks were pulled into positive territory today after stock markets in the US and Europe ended mostly higher overnight. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) rose 0.3 per cent after 54.7 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch today, we have IHH Healthcare. The mainboard-listed company reported earnings of RM532.1 million (S$152.7 million) for its third fiscal quarter ended September. That's more than double the earnings in the corresponding year-ago period. Meanwhile from CapitaLand Ascott Trust, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Golden Agri-Resources, Keppel DC Reit and Suntec Reit added to the STI reserve list, to more on Sheng Siong and Cordlife Group, more local headlines remain in focus. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Sunny Soh, Lead Technical Analyst (Capital Markets & Investor Education), SIAS.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks were mixed and indecisively capped off this month's notable gains as the Israel-Hamas truce hung in the balance before the announcement of a last-minute one-day extension.The overnight session saw a slew of key data releases including disappointing Chinese official PMI figures which showed a steeper contraction in China's factory activity.OPEC+ reportedly mulls new oil production cuts amid the Middle East conflict with Saudi Arabia favouring a curb of up to 1mln BPD, while other members oppose downgrading quotas.German Finance Minister Lindner said Germany faces a EUR 17bln gap in the 2024 budget.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade, Retail Sales, French GDP (Final), CPI, Produce Prices, German Unemployment, EZ CPI, Italian CPI, US Personal Consumption, PCE Price Index, IJC, Dallas Fed PCE, Canadian GDP, Average Weekly Earnings, Australian PMI (Final), Japanese Unemployment Rate, BoE's Monthly Decision Panel, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Williams, BoE's Greene & ECB's Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equities post modest gains with the FTSE 100 & DAX 40 outperforming given crude and SAP/SalesforceStateside futures tilt higher in-fitting with the European bias as markets await US PCE data.DXY is firmer, leading G10's lower with clear underperformance in the EUR post cooler than expected CPI.Debt futures wane after short squeeze fizzles out; Bunds fade from near 133.00Crude extends gains following reports that OPEC+ has a preliminary agreement for additional oil output cuts in excess of 1mln BPD, according to ReutersThe overnight session saw a slew of key data releases including disappointing Chinese official PMI figures which showed a steeper contraction in China's factory activity.Looking ahead, US Personal Consumption, PCE Price Index, IJC, Dallas Fed PCE, Canadian GDP, Average Weekly Earnings, Australian PMI (Final), Japanese Unemployment Rate, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Williams, BoE's Greene & ECB's Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equity markets advanced the week of Thanksgiving as investors gave thanks for slowing inflation. Although still hot, inflation has cooled to the point that the FOMC is expected to start cutting rates in the first half of 2024. The coming week's PCE Price Index may confirm the trend and, if so, spur the market to new highs. The risk for traders and investors is that the market will top out soon due to the declining estimates for Q4 earnings.The Q3 earnings season was better than the consensus estimate at the start of the reporting season, which aligns with the trend. The consensus for Q4 imploded during the cycle, which also aligns with trends and suggests a weak holiday quarter and earnings weakness in Q1 of 2024. In this scenario, a persistently declining outlook for earnings will weigh on the market as the quarters progress and keep the market range bound regardless of the FOMC's next move.

US futures are firmer as broader risk appetite is supported post-AMZN/INTCEuropean bourses experience divergence as the above tone is offset in places by marked losses in heavyweight Sanofi post-resultsDXY remains above the 106.50 mark with the JPY around 150.00 where marked OpEx resides, PPI supports AUDCore fixed income awaits US PCE but retain an underlying bidCrude benchmarks benefit from a flare-up in geopolitical tensions though XAU remains containedLooking ahead, highlights increase US PCE Price Index, Personal Income/Consumption. Earnings: Carlsberg; Exxon, Chevron, Abbvie, Aon, Charter, Colgate, Phillips 66Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equity markets rebounded on Tuesday as treasury yields advanced, and better-than-expected earnings from Verizon helped calm frayed nerves. Verizon's results were mixed with revenue as expected, but profitability was better than expected, and free cash flow guidance was raised. The news sparked an 8% rise in the share price as investors scooped up the deep value and high yield the stock had to offer. The S&P 500 gained about 1% at the session's high to reveal support at a critical level. The caveat for traders and investors is that the rebound is tepid in light of the previous correction and the outlook for PCE prices on Friday. The PCE Price Index is expected to accelerate from the prior month and reinvigorate the idea more interest rate hikes are coming. In this scenario, Tuesday's rebound is nothing more than a relief rally within a downtrend, and the downtrend will likely continue before the week is through.

Equity markets pulled back last week, casting a dark shadow on the near-term outlook. The S&P 500 fell more than 2.25% to create a Bearish Engulfing Pattern that confirms resistance at a lower level than before. This shows bears advancing on the back of increasing risk and the odds of another FOMC interest rate hike. War in the Middle East threatens to spur inflation as the government ramps up aid and military spending.This is going to be another trying week for equity markets. The PCE Price Index is due on Friday and will likely show persistently high inflation. The risk is that high oil prices will show in the data, and inflation will accelerate. In this scenario, the FOMC will have no choice but to hike rates again, and it could come as soon as the end of the year. A hot read on the PCE could send the S&P below critical support and open the door to another 5% decline.

Equity markets tread water on Monday as investors brace for a turbulent week. Few earnings reports or economic releases exist, but Friday will bring the PCE price index. The PCE Price Index is the Fed's favored tool to gauge inflation and is expected to be mixed. The core reading is expected to cool compared to the previous month, but the headline will accelerate. Because the headline is a leading indicator of core inflation, it will point to another interest rate hike this year. In this scenario, the FOMC will hike rates to the highest level in over a decade and send more banks to the brink of collapse. The equity market is at a critical turning point. Either the market will get its feet back under it, or it won't. The market will likely rally higher into the New Year if it can regain footing. If not, the selloff will gain momentum and threaten to wipe out all of this year's gains. In that scenario, momentum could build as investors run for cover and take the S&P 500 back to the depths of 2022's lows.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news higher benchmark interest rates are clouding the global economy.But after last week's big central bank meetings, this week it will be more about macroeconomic data. In the US, the spotlight will be on the PCE Price Index, as well as personal income and spending data. And durable goods orders, the final reading of the Q2 GDP growth rate, and pending and new home sales are all due. In Europe, September inflation rates will be released for the Euro area countries along with industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate, consumer confidence. For Japan we will get more clues from their central bank Monetary Policy meeting minutes. From China, it will be industrial profits. From Australia we will get retail sales, a monthly inflation update, and the usual end of month banking data.Over the weekend, Taiwan released its industrial production data and it was less weak than expected. In fact, it rose in August from July to make back some of the year-on-year retreats. Meanwhile, Taiwanese retail sales came in with another strong month, especially for food services.China is finding pork prices are zooming higher again. About sixty percent of all meat sold in the country is pork. But prices are up +30% as their government has been buying aggressively to replenish its strategic food security reserve that was run down in 2022, the culmination of a herd cull in 2018 and 2019 due to ASF. Higher pork prices might we helping farmers recover, but they will also be underpinning beef and lamb prices as pork seems less affordable to city consumers.Japan said its CPI inflation rate in August was little-changed at 3.2% from 3.3% in July, but that was its lowest reading in three months. Prices continued to rise for food however, up a sharp 8.6%, offset by even sharper falls for fuel, down -12.3%. Outside these, core inflation was unchanged at 3.1% and that makes it 17 straight months core inflation has been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. They must be ready to change policy settings. But the central bank met on Friday and didn't make any headline change in a unanimous decision. The lack of any clear sign of a shift in its policy stance puts a damper on market speculation over the prospects for a near-term interest rate hike. And it is fueling pressure on the yen. Perhaps we will a better indication of their thinking when the minutes of their meeting are released later this week.The latest Markit PMI for Japan shows factory activity contracted a bit faster in September than the previous month, and sharper than market forecasts, so they now have a fourth straight month of fall in factory activity and the steepest drop since February. But their services sector is still expanding at a healthy rate.The updated September Markit PMIs for the US paint a steady-state picture of no significant expansions nor contractions. Their factory sector is reported to be contracting very slightly but that is its 'best' reading in 2 months. Their services sector is marginally expanding, but that is a very light slip from August.And it isn't going to improve, with the autoworker's union expanding its strike to 38 factories owned by GM and Stellantis (Chrysler) sites across the US and Canada - but none for Ford yet.Meanwhile Republican Congressional squabbles are keeping the potential of a Federal government shutdown a live possibility.In Canada, retail sales may have slipped very slightly in August, it their overnight update. But they are up +2.0% from a year ago. That wasn't enough to account for inflation of course, but in Montreal they did. They were weakest in Vancouver.In Europe, the Markit services PMI reported an improvement even if it is still contracting. The EU factory PMI is also contracting but at an unchanged rate. What is a worry there is that new order levels are falling at their sharpest pace in three years.Meanwhile in Australia, their services sector shifted out of contraction - just, but their factory sector is still contracting, extending that to a 3 month low.For all the economic activity shifts over the past week, the most substantial one is the rise in benchmark interest rates, triggered by a hawkish American central bank.The UST 10yr yield starts today unchanged from Saturday at 4.44%. But that is up from a week-ago level of 4.33%. Markets now have a full +25 bps priced in for an RBNZ rate rise in early 2024. Globally, higher rates for longer is the trend setting in, and that will continue to weigh on asset price valuations.The price of gold will start today at just on US$1925/oz and up +US$2 from Saturday.And oil prices are little-changed at just under US$90/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$92.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.6 USc, a +¼c rise from Friday and up more than +½c for the week. Against the Aussie we are at 92.6 AUc (remembering we started the week at 91.7 AUc). Against the euro we at 56 euro cents and we haven't been this high since late July. That all means our TWI-5 starts the week at 69.3 and a 45 day high.The bitcoin price has hardly moved from this time Saturday, and it is now at US$26,574 and up just +US$8 from then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been almost non-existent at just over +/-0.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Equity markets tried to advance for the 5th day on Thursday, but the gains were slim, the index closed virtually flat, and the peak of the move may have been reached. The PCE Price Index for July came in hotter than expected and shows consumer-level inflation is accelerating. The data increased the fear of another Fed rate hike, although the market still believes the committee is already done. The odds of another hike are less than 50/50, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, and softened following the release. The S&P 500 advanced solidly for the week, and an interesting setup is developing. The market could continue higher but will have to break critical resistance levels. Those levels coincide with the summer peak and, if not broken, may produce a double top of another bearish pattern in the index. In that scenario, the market could fall 5% to 10% from current levels before hitting firm support, and there is additional risk. The next FOMC meeting is less than 3 weeks away, and another inflation report is due before then.

1. The major stock indexes are bouncing today continuing the move from late last Friday. This is the final trading week in August and the last week ahead of the Labor Day holiday. There's a chance that we see continued light volume and a gradual float higher into the end of the week. Most often holiday action will favor the upside, but we must not take that for granted. The month of August has been weak and that should continue into September. 2. Economic data has been a bit soft this week and that has helped the rally. Bad news is now good news again. Yesterday, the weak JOLTS report gave the market a jolt to the upside. Today, the second estimate for Q2 GDP growth was marked down to 2.1% from the advance estimate of 2.4%. The GDP Price Deflator also got marked down to 2.0% from the advance estimate of 2.2%. The PCE Price Index got revised lower to 2.5% from 2.6%, as did the core-PCE Price Index, which checked in at 3.7% versus the advance estimate of 3.8%. The bottom line, bad news is good news as investors hope the Fed will cut rates. 3. Yields have backed off this week and that has helped the markets to rally up. The 2-year note yield was above 5% late last week and it is now back down to 4.85%. Remember, if the 2 year note yield starts to climb back up to 5% it will likely spook markets once again. 4. Gold and silver are upticking a little today. Gold is popping up after forming a 4-day consolidating base on the daily chart. This pattern could lead to some more daily chart upside in the near term, but there is some daily resistance around the 1975 level. 5. Bitcoin surged yesterday after a positive court ruling for a Grayscale Bitcoin ETF. So while this was a solid surge there was a bullish chart pattern failure last week. So I would be very careful with Bitcoin futures right now. Visit Nick at: https://inthemoneystocks.comVisit Kerry at: https://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.comThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4295686/advertisement

After reviewing stock (1:34), bond (4:01) and commodities (6:10) markets and macro news (10:13) for the Aug. 7-11 week, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau take up the Topic of the Week (16:45): alternatives compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to the Consumer Price Index for measuring inflation. These gauges include the GDP Deflator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator, the GDP Price Index, the Gross Domestic Purchase Index, the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred Core PCE and the rather obscure Market-Based PCE. Then Jeff and Sam turn to macro news releases (29:23) scheduled for the Aug. 14-18 week.

Equity markets advanced last week, with the S&P 500 gaining over 3.0% at the session's high. The market is in melt-up mode despite a hawkish FOMC that indicates 2 more interest rate hikes are on the way. AI and a positive re-valuation of the outlook for AI-related tech drive the melt-up. NVIDIA is leading the charge, but names like Oracle and Adobe are in the mix. The takeaway is that the cloud is booming with AI, and any company involved in the hardware, infrastructure, or services end of the business is booming along with it. This week will be a test for the market. There are few earnings reports and economic releases to drive the action, so the market may have a hard time moving much higher in the near term. The next significant catalyst is the PCE Price Index which will be released in 2 weeks. Another hot report will seal the deal on a 25 basis point hike and may convince the market that Mr. Powell and the FOMC were serious in saying 2 more hikes were coming.

1.The PCE Price Index rose 0.4% in April following a 0.1% increase in March. The core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4%. Basically, this was a little hotter than expected. This report has been noted as the Fed's favorite indicator. The bottom line, this now puts a June rate hike back on the table. On Wednesday, we talked about how yields have been climbing recently and this is probably why. 2. NVidia (NVDA was the story of the week after reporting earnings and seeing its stock surge by nearly 25%. This news also helped to lift most other semiconductors higher. So while everyone usually looks to Apple as being the most important tech stock it is now NVDA. The AI craze is running wild. 3. This is the final trading session before the Memorial Day Holiday in the US. Usually, we will see light volume throughout the session as traders often close up shop after the first 2 hours of the day. 4. Gold and silver are catching a bid this morning. Silver is very strong with a 2% surge to start the day. Both gold and silver are trading at daily chart support right now. 5. Bitcoin is upticking a little today, but the daily chart still looks weak. The weekly chart is holding up but does not signal a lot of overall upside. That tells me if it does catch a bid it should not go much further that the recent high before declining again. Visit Nick at: https://InTheMoneyStocks.comVisit FSN at: https://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.comThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4295686/advertisement

1. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in February following a 0.6% increase in January. Expectations were 0.4%, so this was a little softer. Investors are now thinking the Fed may start to get more dovish. The core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The markets have rallied this week and are holding up again this morning. 2. According to Bloomberg, Chinese regulators are now conducting a cybersecurity review of MU products. I have to chuckle at this news. Will this start the chip wars and signal a new phase of tensions between the US and China? Of course it will. 3. The financial stocks have to be followed like a hawk these days. today, the financial stocks are slightly positive. Many investors are waiting for another show to drop, but that has not happened yet and the central banks have done a lot to keep the liquidity in these banks. 4. Gold is basically flat today, but it has not really backed off much lately. In my opinion, gold is the new VIX. While I believe it is overbought at this time we must understand that fear is the strongest emotion in trading next to greed and gold is up in fear. 5. Bitcoin is holding up well again. I still think it could more up a bit more on the daily chart, bit after this run is over the down turn should be back in play.

1. Markets are under some major pressure after the core-PCE Price Index came in hotter than expected. Many investors believe this index is the Federal Reserve Bank's favorite indicator. Well, that tells us they need to raise rates further and that is the last thing the bulls want to hear. Most traders are now going to be watching to see if the S&P 500 Index closes below the 50-day moving average today. This key moving average was defended yesterday. 2. Yields are rallying higher again today. The highly followed 10-year note yield is now around 3.95%. While this yield is important, the better yield that everyone should track is the 2-year note. That is now around 4.80%. This is the yield where the fed funds rate needs to be at. They caught up in January and you see how the markets rallied, now they are behind the curve and the markets are falling. 3. Gold is down again today. We are also seeing a big decline in copper. Today, I closed out a put play for 30% in Southern Copper Corp (SCCO). I still think copper has lower to go, but remember, nothing goes down in a straight line.

European bourses are near unchanged levels, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, though a very mild positive skew is seen in quiet post-earnings newsflow.LVMH slips with attention on lower margins, Intel (-9.5% pre-market) lags after a miss on the headline metrics and a weak market outlook; NQ -0.5% and lagging.DXY is firmer but somewhat mixed vs peers, with the index sub-102.00 as the JPY outperforms after hot Tokyo CPI.Core benchmarks have continued to slip despite a limited early-doors bounce/ any positivity from another well-received US auction.Both WTI and Brent have been moving higher throughout the European morning, with developments limited but fundamentals remain bullish.Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Consumption. Holiday in China (Lunar New Year). Earnings include Chevron and AMEX.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks took impetus from the strong rally on Wall Street (SPX +3.06%, NDX +4.58%) after Fed Chair Powell's speech.Fed Chair Powell said it makes sense to moderate the pace of interest rate hikes, adding he does not want to over-tighten but cutting rates is not something to do soon.Chinese Vice Premier Chunlan noted that the country's fight against COVID is entering a new phase, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts.European equity futures were positive with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% yesterday.DXY was pressured post-Powell with DXY on a 105 handle, JPY leads G10 FX, EUR/USD reclaimed 1.04.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM, IJC, PCE Price Index, EU Council President Michel visits China, Speeches from Fed's Barr, Bowman & Logan, ECB's Lane & Elderson, Supply from Spain, UK & France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses have benefited from the post-Powell surge, US futures more contained pre-dataAdditional support derived in APAC hours from China's PMIs and COVID adjustmentsDXY remains downbeat given the dovish Powell reaction, JPY is the standout beneficiary given rate differentialsEGBs are bid with pricing for December's ECB tilting towards 50bp given the magnitude of overnight price action, Lane speaks laterCrude benchmarks are little changed overall but have been choppy throughout the morning with specific developments limitedLooking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM, IJC, PCE Price Index, Speeches from Fed's Barr, Bowman & Logan, ECB's Lane & EldersonClick here for the Week Ahead previewRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Editor-in-Chief of The Balance Kristin Myers joins Jon Hansen on Your Money Matters to talk about the PCE price index for September being released. She elaborates on what the PCE price index is and why it’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Equity markets plunged on Thursday following hot inflation data. The September read of the Consumer Price Index came in hotter than expected at the headline and core levels as the cost of housing and wages continue to rise. The data seals the deal in regard to the Fed's next move which will be another 100 basis point interest rate hike according to the CMEs FedWatch Tool. If the next PCE Price Index reading is hot as well the FOMC could be forced to become even more aggressive. Technically speaking, the move hit a key support target at 3,500 which sparked a massive rebound that left the index up for the day. Earnings season gets into high gear today with reports from the Big Banks. The banks are expected to show the benefit of rising interest rates but may scare the market if consumer and business banking results are weaker than expected. Rising interest rates help the spread upon which the banks make their money but also cut into economic activity.

This week, I've got 3 major financial headlines for you.. First up, all major US stock market indices ended last week in bear market territory... what does that mean and what does it mean for your investment portfolio? Next, the British Pound tumbled last week to lows not seen since the 1980s. What happened and what does it mean for the US? Finally, we got the latest data point on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation last week: the PCE Price Index. Is inflation getting better or worse? … after that, this week I'm taking a deep dive Crista Hermance of Hermance Law, also known as Estate Planning Mom to talk about all things will and estate planning. Learn wha you need to know to protect your assets and even more importantly, your minor children, in case anything happens to you. For more on this week's market update: https://familyfinancemom.com/estate-and-will-planning/ For more on this week's guest, Crista Hermance of Hermance Law & Estate Planning Mom: www.hermancelaw.com www.facebook.com/HermanceLaw www.instagram.com/estateplanningmom/ www.pinterest.com/estateplanningmom/ twitter.com/mom_estate https://www.linkedin.com/in/hermance-law-ventura-04a7521a3 www.youtube.com/channel/UC4QYIbe_hC3tjxtb7sHI0MA ___________________ Follow Family Finance Mom everywhere... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/familyfinancemom/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/financemom1 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/familyfinancemom Get weekly newsletter here: http://eepurl.com/gblbY9 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/familyfinancemom/message

European equities are attempting to claw back some of yesterday's downside on quarter and month end; US futures similarly bidGBP's revival has continued ahead of a meeting between PM Truss and the OBR, with a statement expectedA move that has taken Cable above 1.12 but shy of mini-Budget levels; DXY sub-112.00 at worst, though still firmer overall.Debt Benchmarks bid but modestly off best levels with Bunds leading the charge, but well within recent ranges, amid potential month/quarter-end influence.EZ assets largely unreactive to HICP Flash YY hitting a record high 10.0% for SeptemberCommodities broadly benefiting from the relative USD move, participants attentive to the EU Energy Meeting & Russian President PutinLooking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Russian President Putin, Moody's on Italy, Speeches from Fed's Williams & Brainard, ECB's Elderson & Schnabel, EU Energy Meeting & Russian President PutinRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equity markets fell hard on Monday to not only confirm resistance at the S&P 500 level of 4,300 but to break through potential support at the 4,150 level as well. The move also confirms a much larger Head & Shoulders pattern that has been in play all year. This pattern has not only a long-term but a deep implication that could lead the S&P 500 down to the 2,700 level and keep it trending at low levels for an extended period of time. The major culprit for the move is slowing economic activity and the possibility of a deepening recession. This week, the biggest risk for the market will come on Friday with the release of the PCE Price Index. The index is expected to show a slowdown in the monthly advance of consumer level inflation but for core consumer inflation to remain at record levels on a YOY basis. A better-than-expected figure could send the market higher but a worse-than-expected number will most defiantly send it lower on an increased expectation for another aggressive FOMC interest rate increase.

Equities tried to advance for a second day following the better-than-expected CPI data but the move was without momentum and left the index relatively flat at the end of the day. The move gives evidence the rally in stocks is nothing more than a bear market rally but leaves another question unanswered. Assuming the market is in a bear-market rally the question is how long it will last and what will put an end to it. The best answer is a few more weeks to a month or so. The market still has faith in the "peak inflation" theory and will be tested during that time. Not only will there be another read on the CPI index but two more reads of the PCE Price Index and all three should confirm lingering high levels of inflation. The takeaway is the FOMC is going to hike rates by at an aggressive pace in September and it could be another hot 75 basis point increase. Next week, a read on Retail Sales will be the focus for traders.

European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, drawing impetus from APAC strength into month-end with catalysts thin thus far.Stateside, futures are supported with familiar themes in play pre-PCE Price Index for insight into the 'peak' inflation narrative; ES +0.4%.USD was initially pressured to a fresh WTD low but has seen a concerted bounce at the modest expense of the EURCore debt has struggled to find a firm direction but has erred back to initial highs with the US yield curve mixed/flat pre-price dataCrude is underpinned, but off highs, amid broader sentiment while spot gold retains APAC upside after breaching the 21-DMA at USD 1850.80/ozLooking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Consumption and ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equity markets resumed their selling on Wednesday after comments from Fed chief Jerome Powell and weak earnings from the retail sector put the fear of recession back into the market. Jerome Powell says the FOMC will continue to raise rates until inflation subsides, a stance the committee has not held for many, many years. What this means for investors is that 50 basis point interest rate hikes should be expected through the end of the year and it should be no surprise if inflation lingers into 2023. Next week, the market may get another shock with the monthly PCE Price Index. The index is the Fed's favored tool for measuring consumer inflation and it is expected to be hot. Regardless of the number, it would take a sustained period of declining and low inflation to get the Fed off the hook in regards to rate hikes.

Equities resumed their downward trend on Tuesday reversing Monday's rebound on renewed fear of the FOMC. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite led the move with a loss close to 4% at the low of the session. The NASDAQ Composite is a growth-oriented index and those stocks, particularly those that rely on debt to fuel their growth, are sensitive to interest rates and the FOMC. Later this week, the selling may pick up momentum after the PCE Price Index is released. The index is expected to show another strong gain in YOY inflation and will start the 2nd year of above-target consumer inflation gains. Regardless of the PCE data, the FOMC is on track to raise rates when it meets in April. Weaker than expected data may reduce the urgency and pace at which they raise rates but will not remove the need for higher rates. The takeaway, the cost of business is going to go up when the Fed raises interest rates and that may send the economy into a recession and the market into a tailspin.

Equities fell hard to start the week with the S&P 500 down more than 1.5% at the low of the session. The move was driven by increasing angst over inflation, the FOMC, and earnings with both a key round of earnings and a key report on inflation due out this week. On the earnings front, there are reports from 175 S&P 500 companies and nearly half of the Dow components on tap. by the end of the week all questions about what to expect this reporting season should be laid to rest. On the inflation front, the April read of the PCE Price Index is due out and it is expected to be another hot one. Core PCE prices are expected to moderate from up 5.4% in February to up 5.3% YOY in March but nowhere near enough to get the FOMc off the hook for interest rate hikes. At this pace, inflation is up nearly 10% versus 2020 with no signs of it slowing. An as expected or cooler than expected report may keep the market from selling off but, if the figures are hotter than consensus as we expect, the selloff could enter a new phase.

The sell-off in equities extended for a third week with the S&P 500 shedding about 2% for the session. The move was driven by increasing fear of FOMC aggression and could easily take the index back down to the 4,200 level. The risk for the market now is that 4,200 will not hold and a much deeper decline is on the way. That decline could be sparked by the Fed when it begins hiking rates because there is a real risk of recession. The CME Fedwatch Tool has the market pricing in 8 to 10 quarter-point hikes by July which would be the fasted pace in living memory. Next week's action will be all about earnings and inflation. The peak of Q1 reporting begins next week and should bring upwards of 100 earnings reports from S&P 500 companies. On the inflation front, the PCE Price Index is slated for release on Friday and could mark the end of any pretense of bullishness in the market. This will be the 13th report since inflation began to spike and there is every indication it will be another hot report.

This week, I've got 3 major financial headlines for you.. First up, the stock market finished mostly flat last week, with March ending the month up, but down for the first quarter - the first down quarter in 2 years Next, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index showed inflation is still rising… what's rising most? Finally, the March employment situation revealed a return to historically low levels of unemployment. What other indicators does it reveal about the tightening labor market … after that, this week I'm taking a deep dive with the CEO of Mainvest, Nick Mathews - to talk to you about how he leveraged regulatory changes in who could make private investments to democratize investing - giving local businesses more access to capital, and local community members the ability to invest in them! For more on this week's market update: https://familyfinancemom.com/market-update-4-4-2022/ To connect with Nick Mathews, CEO of Mainvest: Mainvest.com ___________________ Follow Family Finance Mom everywhere... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/familyfinancemom/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/financemom1 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/familyfinancemom Get weekly newsletter here: http://eepurl.com/gblbY9 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/familyfinancemom/message

APAC stocks traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US; S&P 500 -0.6%.Ukrainian negotiator said peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will resume online on April 1st.DXY attempted to nurse losses but remains on a 97 handle, JPY lags in the G10 FX space as USD/JPY trims losses.US President Biden's administration is considering a 'massive' release of oil to combat inflation, according to Bloomberg.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 1.1% yesterday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, German Retail Sales & Unemployment, US IJC, PCE Price Index, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Williams, ECB's Lane & de Guindos.US TRADEUS stocks traded negative as doubts grew regarding the progress from Russia-Ukraine talks with Russian forces not showing signs of a withdrawal.S&P500 -0.6% at 4,603, Nasdaq 100 -1.1% at 15,071, Dow Jones -0.2% at 35,228, Russell 2000 -2.0% at 2,091.NOTABLE US HEADLINESFed's George (2022 voter) said the possibility for yield curve inversion should factor into Fed balance sheet chat and that Fed holdings should fall 'significantly', allowing longer-term rates to increase along with increases in short term policy rates. George added inversion has implications for financial stability and she is less concerned about its value as a predictor of a recession, while she also stated that the policy rate could be increased in a "steady, deliberate" manner as the Fed monitors the impact on the economy, inflation and demand, according to Reuters.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkrainian negotiator said peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will resume online on April 1st and Ukraine requested the countries' two leaders should meet in the latest round of talks, but Russia argued that additional work on a draft treaty was needed, according to Reuters.Russia announced a ceasefire to evacuate residents of Mariupol in which a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, via the Russian-controlled port of Berdiansk, will begin at 10:00 am local time today.Ukrainian President Zelenskiy spoke to US President Biden and shared an assessment of the situation on the battlefield and at the negotiating table while they discussed specific defensive support, a new package of enhanced sanctions, macro-financial and humanitarian aid, according to Reuters.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Kyiv understands Crimea and Donbass issues are definitively resolved, while he noted the outcome of talks with Ukraine in Istanbul is positive progress but not yet a final outcome, according to Interfax.Ukraine spokesperson tweeted that Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov demonstrates a misunderstanding of the negotiation process and that the issues of Crimea and Donbas will be settled for good after Ukraine restores its sovereignty over them.French Foreign Minister Le Drian said that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have not advanced, according to Reuters.DEFENCE/MILITARYUkrainian President Zelensky said they will not make any concessions and will fight for every part of their land and all their people, while a presidential adviser noted that guarantor states include the provision of military and humanitarian assistance within three days of any aggression, according to AJABreaking.US Pentagon said the US expects Russia to refit and resupply troops to redeploy them into Ukraine and suggested it looks like Russian President Putin has not been 'fully' informed by MoD at every turn over the prior month, while it added that some Russian troops are going to Belarus, according to Reuters.US official said "newly declassified intelligence finds Russia President Putin has felt misled by the Russian military, and there is now persistent tension between Putin and the MoD", according to Voice of America.UK GCHQ Director Fleming is to say that it looks like Russian President Putin hugely misjudged the situation in Ukraine and that "Demoralised Russian soldiers in Ukraine have accidentally shot down their own aircraft, sabotaged their kit and refused to carry out orders". Furthermore, the GCHQ chief said some Russian soldiers in Ukraine have been short of weapons and morale is low, while Russia's choice to align with China after invading Ukraine has made Beijing more powerful and Russia could ultimately be squeezed out of the equation by China in the long-term on the global stage, according to Reuters.Governor of Ukraine's Donetsk region said there is continued shelling of all settlements along the demarcation line and the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol likely failed on Wednesday.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSWhite House said the Biden admin continues to look at options for further Russian sanctions, according to Reuters.US official said India should not 'significantly' increase Russian oil imports against prior years and that India will expose itself to a 'great risk' if it notably raises imports of Russian oil, although the US favours India purchasing Russian oil at discounts and is not against India settling trade with Russia in Rupees, according to Reuters. It was separately reported by Twitter sources including ET NOW that Russia is offering oil to India at a discount of around USD 35/bbl.European Commission is readying new sanctions against the Kremlin over Russia's invasion of Ukraine which could be ready as early as next week and the size of new measures depends on Russia's stance on gas payments in Roubles, according to Reuters citing EU sources.German government spokesperson said following a call between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin that the G7 agreement remains in which energy supplies from Russia will be paid in Euros or Dollars, as agreed in contracts. President Putin told Scholz payments would continue in Euros and go to Gazprom-bank which is not affected by sanctions where the bank would then convert money into roubles, while Scholz did not agree with this in the phone call and asked for a written explanation.Dutch PM Rutte said a peace deal with loss of Ukrainian territory and sovereignty will not automatically end sanctions.Australia is to apply a 35% tariff on all imports from Russia and Belarus, according to 10 News First.FUND/SOVEREIGN/OTHER NEWSCBR lifted the ban on short-selling on the stock market for March 31st, according to RIA.Russia and Belarus bonds are to be excluded from 11 S&P Dow Jones Indexes.Russian hackers recently tried to penetrate the networks of NATO and eastern European militaries, according to Google's Threat Analysis Group cited by Reuters.OTHERWhite House said Iran-related sanctions announced on Wednesday will delay a nuclear deal and the sanctions will remain in place even if a nuclear deal is reached, according to Reuters.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia considers the presence of US and NATO military infrastructure in countries bordering Afghanistan as unacceptable, according to Tass.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US due to increased Russia-Ukraine scepticism and as the region digested disappointing Chinese PMI data.ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in the mining and materials industries although upside was capped as the tech sector suffered from profit-taking and with energy hit by a drop in oil prices.Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a choppy currency and after Industrial Production data missed forecasts.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued following the weak Chinese PMI data and with the mood in stocks not helped by the US SEC chief casting doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert a delisting of Chinese stocks.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 1.1% yesterday.FXDXY attempted to nurse some of the prior day's losses but with upside capped amid slightly softer yields. DXY remains sub-98.00.EUR/USD initially extended on the gains from the hot German CPI data but returned flat on late dollar reprieve.GBP/USD continued to fade yesterday's gains after taking a backseat to recent euro strength.USD/JPY has continued to pick-up from yesterday's 121.31 low and is now back on a 122 handle.Antipodeans were pressured in late trade amid the cautious mood and decline in oil prices.FIXED INCOME10yr USTs were underpinned as yields eased and with lower oil prices helping alleviate some inflationary woes.Bunds remained subdued near the 157.00 level following the recent hot inflation data from Germany.10yr JGBs were rangebound with only mild support following firmer demand at the 2yr auction.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent declined heavily on news of a potential US SPR release totalling 180mln bbls.US President Biden's administration is considering a 'massive' release of oil to combat inflation and may release up to 1mln bpd for months from the strategic reserve in which the total release could be 180mln bbls, according to Bloomberg.US President Biden will deliver remarks today at 13:30EDT/18:30BST regarding the administration's actions to reduce gas prices in the US, according to the White House. It was also reported that the US mulls permitting summertime sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline to ease pump prices, according to Reuters sources.IEA called an emergency ministerial meeting for Friday, according to the Australian Energy Minister's office. It was later reported that IEA countries are to decide on a collective oil release, according to New Zealand's Energy Minister's officeOPEC+ JTC replaced IEA reports with Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy as secondary sources to assess crude oil output and conformity, according to sources cited by Reuters.Spot gold saw mild losses as the greenback found some relief from recent selling pressure.Copper prices were weaker amid the cautious risk sentiment and disappointing Chinese PMI data.CRYPTOBitcoin was indecisive with prices relatively unchanged heading into the European morning.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injection.PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3482 vs exp. 6.3467 (prev. 6.3566)US SEC chief cast doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert delisting of Chinese stocks from US exchanges, according to Bloomberg. However, CSRC said it is continuing its discussions with US SEC on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act and that both sides are willing to solve the audit dispute in which the outcome depends on the wisdom of both parties.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said sharp FX moves are not desirable, while they are closely watching how FX moves and recent JPY weakening could impact Japan's economy with a sense of urgency. Matsuno added the government will take appropriate steps on FX policies in close communication with the US and other currency authorities based on international agreements.DATA RECAPChinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.2)Chinese NBS Non-Mfg PMI (Mar) 48.4 (Prev. 51.6)Chinese Composite PMI (Mar) 48.8 (Prev. 51.2)Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.8%)Australian Building Approvals (Feb) 43.5% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. -27.9%, Rev. -27.1%)EUROPEDATA RECAPUK Lloyds Business Barometer (Mar) 33 (Prev. 44)

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) have faded gains seen at the open on the final trading session of the month. Futures in the US are modestly firmer as the NQ (+0.5%) marginally outpaces the ES (+0.1%)In FX, DXY has regained 98.00 status, EUR/USD eyes 1.11 to the downside and USD/JPY oscillates near the 122 markCrude benchmarks are suffering in the wake of reports suggesting that the Biden administration is considering a 'massive' SPR release.Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, PCE Price Index, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Williams.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkrainian negotiator said peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will resume online on April 1st and Ukraine requested the countries' two leaders should meet in the latest round of talks, but Russia argued that additional work on a draft treaty was needed, according to Reuters.Russia announced a ceasefire to evacuate residents of Mariupol in which a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, via the Russian-controlled port of Berdiansk, will begin at 10:00 am local time today.Russian Foreign Ministry says it would not rebuff a meeting between Foreign Minister Lavrov and his Ukraine counterpart but discussions would need to be substantive, according to Ria.DEFENCE/MILITARYUkrainian President Zelensky said they will not make any concessions and will fight for every part of their land and all their people, while a presidential adviser noted that guarantor states include the provision of military and humanitarian assistance within three days of any aggression, according to AJABreaking.UK GCHQ Director Fleming is to say that it looks like Russian President Putin hugely misjudged the situation in Ukraine and that "Demoralised Russian soldiers in Ukraine have accidentally shot down their own aircraft, sabotaged their kit and refused to carry out orders". Furthermore, the GCHQ chief said some Russian soldiers in Ukraine have been short of weapons and morale is low, while Russia's choice to align with China after invading Ukraine has made Beijing more powerful and Russia could ultimately be squeezed out of the equation by China in the long-term on the global stage, according to Reuters.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATESReported by Twitter sources including ET NOW that Russia is offering oil to India at a discount of around USD 35/bbl.Russia's Gazprom is studying options of halting gas supplies to Europe amid issues of payments in roubles, according to the Kommersant newspaper, which cites sources.Australia is to apply a 35% tariff on all imports from Russia and Belarus, according to 10 News First.Russia and Belarus bonds are to be excluded from 11 S&P Dow Jones Indexes.OTHERRussian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia considers the presence of US and NATO military infrastructure in countries bordering Afghanistan as unacceptable, according to Tass.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) kicked the final trading session of the month off on the front foot before drifting towards the unchanged mark.Sectors in Europe exhibit a mostly positive tilt with airline names cheering the declines in the energy space as the Energy sector suffers. The biggest laggard in the region is the retail section following a disappointing Q1 update from H&M (-8%).Futures in the US are modestly firmer as the NQ (+0.5%) marginally outpaces the ES (+0.1%) with inflation set to continue to remain in focus today, with the release of US PCE metrics for March; core PCE is seen rising to 5.5% Y/Y.Click here for more detail.FXDollar finds its feet as month, quarter and fiscal year end approach, albeit with a helping hand from others - DXY back on the 98.000 handle, narrowly.Commodity currencies reverse course alongside underlying prices, with crude crushed on reports of US SPR and IEA opening reserve taps - Usd/Cad rebounds through 1.2500 after sliding to new y-t-d low sub-1.2450 only yesterday.Yen choppy amidst residual repatriation flows and more BoJ action to cap JGB yields - Usd/Jpy circa 122.00 within a 122.45-121.35 range.Euro fades into 1.1200 vs Buck again as option expiries and tech resistance impinge, but Aussie may derive traction from expiry interest at 0.7500 - Eur/Usd now eyeing support at 1.1100 after tripping stopsClick here for more detail.Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:EUR/USD: 1.1000 (3.15BN), 1.1050-60 (634M), 1.1070-80 (1.19BN), 1.1100-05 (1.67BN), 1.1110-15 (658M), 1.1120-25 (880M), 1.1130-35 (453M), 1.1150-60 (896M), 1.1175 (501M), 1.1195-05 (2.6BN), 1.1230 (337M)AUD/USD: 0.7400 (500M), 0.7500 (1.73BN), 0.7550 (579M), 0.7600 (445M)FIXED INCOMEBonds on track to see out extremely bearish month, quarter and end to FY on a firmer noteCurves more even after wild swings between flattening, inversion and steepeningBoJ ramps efforts to maintain YCC via a mostly larger JGB buying remit for Q2Click here for more detail.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent remain firmly on the backfoot in the wake of reports suggesting that the Biden administration is considering a 'massive' SPR release.The news has sent May'22 WTI and Jun'22 Brent to respective lows of USD 100.53/bbl and USD 107.39/bbl to leave them a few dollars above their weekly lows of USD 98.44/bbl and USD 102.19/bbl respectively.US President Biden's administration is considering a 'massive' release of oil to combat inflation and may release up to 1mln bpd for months from the strategic reserve in which the total release could be 180mln bbls, according to Bloomberg.Goldman Sachs says a potentially large SPR release would ease the situation but wouldn't resolve the structural deficit in the oil market. Says adjustments for SPR release, Iran supply delays would lower H2 22 Brent forecast by USD 15, to USD 120/bbl - still above market forwards.US President Biden will deliver remarks today at 13:30EDT/18:30BST regarding the administration's actions to reduce gas prices in the US, according to the White House. It was also reported that the US mulls permitting summertime sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline to ease pump prices, according to Reuters sources.IEA called an emergency ministerial meeting for Friday, according to the Australian Energy Minister's office. It was later reported that IEA countries are to decide on a collective oil release, according to New Zealand's Energy Minister's officeOPEC+ JTC replaced IEA reports with Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy as secondary sources to assess crude oil output and conformity, according to sources cited by Reuters.In the metals space, spot gold is contained well within recent ranges whilst copper remains subdued following disappointing Chinese PMI metrics overnight. Finally, Reuters notes that Dalian iron ore saw its best quarterly performance for five quarters amid Chinese policy support.Click here for more detail.NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINESECB's Lane says it is important to remain data-dependent and for optionality in both directions. Should ensure that policy settings are adjusted if inflation expectations are de-anchored. Should also be fully prepared to appropriately revise monetary policy settings if the energy price shock and the Russia-Ukraine war were to result in a significant deterioration in macroeconomic prospects and thereby weaken the medium-term inflation outlook.DATA RECAPGerman Retail Sales YY Real (Feb) 7.0% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 10.3%); MM Real (Feb) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.0%)German Unemployment Chg SA (Mar) -18k vs. Exp. -20.0k (Prev. -33.0k)French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Mar) 5.1% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.2%)NOTABLE US HEADLINES:CRYPTOBTC is relatively flat on a USD 47k handle with price action in the crypto space contained.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US due to increased Russia-Ukraine scepticism and as the region digested disappointing Chinese PMI data.ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in the mining and materials industries although upside was capped as the tech sector suffered from profit-taking and with energy hit by a drop in oil prices.Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a choppy currency and after Industrial Production data missed forecasts.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued following the weak Chinese PMI data and with the mood in stocks not helped by the US SEC chief casting doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert a delisting of Chinese stocks.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injection.PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3482 vs exp. 6.3467 (prev. 6.3566)US SEC chief cast doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert delisting of Chinese stocks from US exchanges, according to Bloomberg. However, CSRC said it is continuing its discussions with US SEC on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act and that both sides are willing to solve the audit dispute in which the outcome depends on the wisdom of both parties.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said sharp FX moves are not desirable, while they are closely watching how FX moves and recent JPY weakening could impact Japan's economy with a sense of urgency. Matsuno added the government will take appropriate steps on FX policies in close communication with the US and other currency authorities based on international agreements.BoJ Apr-Jun bond buying schedule: Raises purchases amounts. Full release hereDATA RECAPChinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.2)Chinese NBS Non-Mfg PMI (Mar) 48.4 (Prev. 51.6)Chinese Composite PMI (Mar) 48.8 (Prev. 51.2)Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.8%)Australian Building Approvals (Feb) 43.5% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. -27.9%, Rev. -27.1%)

Equities began the week on shaky footing but managed to rise by the end of Monday's session leaving the S&P 500 at the highest levels in over a month. The move comes on the back of a near 10% decline in oil prices but investors should not be complacent. This week the market will get another read on consumer-level inflation and it is not expected to be a good one. The PCE Price Index will be released on Thursday and is expected to accelerate to 5.5% YOY at the core level. If correct, this will be the hottest level of consumer inflation in over 3 decades and the 11th month inflation has accelerated above the FOMC's 2.0% target. Other risks for the market are emerging as well. Manufacturing closings in China's key hub of Shanghai are spreading and threaten to bring the global supply chain to its knees. Even if the closings are limited and short-lived they will have a far-reaching effect when it comes to product availability and the impact on the supply chain.

The term personal consumption expenditures refer to a measure of imputed household expenditures defined for a period of time. Personal income and the PCE Price Index reading are released monthly in the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays report. Personal consumption expenditures support the reporting of the PCE Price Index, which measures price changes in consumer goods and services exchanged in the U.S. economy.The PCE Price Index became the primary inflation index in 2012 used by the U.S. Federal Reserve when making monetary policy decisions.1 It is comparable to the Consumer Price Index which also focuses on consumer prices. Other measures of inflation also tracked by economists can include the Producer Price Index and the Gross Domestic Product Price Index.

Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss how markets are reacting to world events, highlights from the Alberta Budget, the Spotify “car-thing” and whether they’ll be able to start tracking conversions for audio advertisers after their latest acquisition. Plus a Canadian startup who started pivoted from helping refugees settle into new regions to increasing employee engagement in internal events raises a $3.5m USD seed round.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉This Market feels more like 2012 than 2022… Especially when you look at the names that are attractive.Rising rates, geopolitical stress, inflation. All reasons for recent market volatility. But the reality is, this is normal. Over the past 4 decades, the average intra-year stock drawdown was 14%. And yet, in 80% of those years, the calendar return was positive.Year over Year Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets Uranium Miners $URNM +204% Gas Expl $FCG +180% Coal Miners $ARCH +166% Agriculture $MOS +100% Oil Exp $XOP +135% Copper, Steel $XME +74% vs. Nasdaq 100 NDX +22% Bonds $ZROZ -15% Bonds $TLT -11%The main indexes tested and even went below their January lows, only to stage a major bounce towards the end of the week, last week. Given the sentiment and economic backdrop, it’s probably just an oversold bounce within a continued bear market. And yet, it’s still anyone’s guess to how long it’ll last. The S&P 500 testing its declining 20-day moving average or even 450 is not out of a question here.Metals stocks have been notably the strongest sector, probably due to war-related sanctions. XME is at 10-year highs. Steel, aluminum, copper stocks are busting loose.Oil stocks are also holding well and are setting up for potential breakouts - GUSH, ERX, AR, DVN, TRGP, FANG, MUR, SU, etc.It’s good to see stocks outside of the commodity space starting to break out and set up nicely on shorter time horizons… see SEAS, LNPH, DOCS, etc.It’s still a headline-driven choppy market that is capable of gapping up or down 2% on any given day. This environment requires one to be nimble, open-minded, and willing to trade both sides of the market.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekCharlie Bilello Had a fantastic post this weekend filled with charts.I've pulled out the Russia-centric parts of his post attached at the bottom.The Russian Ruble has completely crashed. Since its peak in 2008, the Ruble has now lost 73% of its value against the US Dollar.The Russian equity ETF ($RSX) debuted in April 2007 and has been twice as volatile as the S&P 500 since then.Have investors been rewarded for this additional risk?Not exactly.The Russia ETF ($RSX) is down 38% since inception versus a 295% gain for the S&P 500 ($SPY ETF).While Russian stocks were crashing, US stocks initially sold off in sympathy, hitting a new correction low near the open on February 24th.At -14.6% and 51 days, this was the largest drawdown for the S&P 500 since February/March 2020 and the longest since 2018.But the declines on the 24th didn’t last, as the S&P 500 rose 4.2% from its low to finish the day in positive territory. This was one of the largest intra-day rallies for the S&P 500 in history, and it occurred exactly one month after a similar rally (+4.4% on January 24).Rate Hikes:The volatility in the markets has not dampened the expectations of the market for rate hikes very much at all.While a 50 basis point (bps) initial move is now seen as a low probability event, Fed Funds Futures are still anticipating 25 bps hikes at the March, May, June, and July FOMC meetings with 6 hikes in total by year-end (to a range of 1.50%-1.75%).Why are investors expecting rate hikes in spite of the weakness in the financial markets?The glaring disconnect between Fed policy and inflation.We received more data on that front this week with the PCE Price Index showing a 6.1% increase over the last year, the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. This compares to a historical average of 3.25% inflation since 1960.Meanwhile, the Fed Funds Rate remains close to 0% versus its average over the same time period of 4.8%.Lest the Fed loses all their remaining credibility, the rate hikes are coming.https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/7-chart-sunday-2-27-22What Russian Sanctions Mean For Europe and The World“Now that the question of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has proven itself not to be a hypothetical, Western governments will be pushed to respond.The United States and its European allies are likely to pursue a sanctions campaign, but this is easier said than done. While it has been popular to deride Russia and its economy as a "gas station" masquerading as a country, the reality is that Russia is a significant--often the largest--exporter of several critical commodities. Russian exports directly feed and fuel (or enable the processes to do so) vast swathes of the world from South America to the Middle East and East Asia--in addition to lighting and heating European homes and supplying crude oil to US Gulf Coast refineries.For the latter scenario, Russian crude exports to the world's largest oil producer picked up significantly in 2021 as a result of US sanctions against Venezuela, illustrating the double-edged nature of sanctions in the globalized economy.The Ukraine War: Energy EditionThe ins and outs of the major oil and natural gas suppliers is a favorite topic of ours here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, and it forms a cornerstone of our expertise; my team and I have decades of combined experience on the issues facing global energy. Crack open any of my books and you'll see that oil and gas are usually the topic of the longest chapters. My second book, The Absent Superpower, chronicles the many outcomes of the American shale revolution. Most notable: an America able to divorce itself from the wider world, and a major regional war in which Russia invades…Ukraine.Now we are gearing up for the release of our newest project - The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new book breaks down the future shape of various economic sectors in a post-globalized world: finance, manufacturing, agriculture. Energy The rapidly-building Ukraine War obviates nothing in the new book (thankfully), but it certainly focuses the mind on the burning questions of the day. How badly will the war impact the world’s second-largest energy exporter? Which consuming markets will be most (and least) impacted? How will those markets adapt to the sudden loss of Russian exports? How long will those losses last?🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊EPOCHAPP.COM - Founded in Kitchener, Ontario. Epoch is the employee experience platform that drives engagement in your learning programs, DEI and ERG initiatives, AMAs, All Hands and internal events. Raises $3.6m USD from Rally Ventures (feb 23rd). 🔮Best Links of The Week🔮YouTube adds another TikTok feature: live ringsThe Netherlands has fined Apple five times over app store paymentsEA CEO explains why company may ditch FIFA branding in leaked staff commentsInventing Anna Sets Surprising Netflix Record As It Remains #1 In The Top 10iPhone average selling price up 14% as iPhone 13 drives record revenue This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com

Equities rebounded on Monday in a volatile session. The growing conflict in Ukraine and the threat of global fallout, on top of the threat of accelerating inflation and FOMC interest rate hikes, has the market wondering which way to go next. The market has backed off on its expectations for interest rate hikes but is still expecting at least one 25 basis point increase in March. Based on the last read of the PCE Price Index, market participants should expect aggressively rate hikes this year even if the first is only 25 basis points. The CME's Fedwatch Tool is pricing in at least at least 4 hikes by June and there is yet to be any sign that inflation is taming. Also on tap this week? Another report on job creation and this month could be a real market mover. The consensus is for gains in the range of 440,000 following last month's stronger than expected numbers. The risk this month is that job creation will be weaker than expected as indicated by the tepid jobless claims reports.

An investor who avoids the market on the basis of any potential event-risk could end up sitting in cash on a semi-permanent basis. Today's Stocks & Topics: FL - Foot Locker Inc., Inflation, Required Minimum Distribution (RMDs), BB - BlackBerry Ltd., YORW - York Water Co., WTRU - Essential Utilities Inc. 6% Un, PCE Price Index, Real Income, 401k Rollover, UROY - Uranium Royalty Corp., Mid and Small Caps, Texas & Oil Companies.Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Equities clawed back some of their recent losses on Tuesday with the major indices up more than 1.5% at the high of the session. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite led the move with a gain of more than 2.25% as fear of the Omicron variant subside. The risk of Omicron remains but any impact it may have on the economy may be getting priced into the market. The technical outlook for the S&P 500 remains bullish although volatility is expected to remain high. Thursday will be the busiest day of trading for the week with more than a dozen economic reports due out before the Christmas Holiday. The key reading of the day will be the monthly income and spending data to include the PCE Price Index. The PCE Price Index is expected to accelerate on a MOM to and YOY basis and may come in hotter than the consensus estimate.

Investors continue to bet on growth despite the rising specter of inflation. The S&P 500 reversed early losses on Wednesday to close with a small gain going into the holiday weekend. The move is the 15th day of trading within a near-term consolidation range that is fast becoming a bullish-looking flag pattern. If the market breaks out to the upside and confirms this pattern within the next week or so it should rally well into the end of the year. In economic news, the PCE Price Index was released on Wednesday coming in largely as expected. The rub is that ?as expected? included a 0.20% month-to-month increase and the fastest pace of YOY gains for several decades. At this pace, the market should expect the first interest rate hikes to come well before the middle of next year.

Investors continue to bet on growth despite the rising specter of inflation. The S&P 500 reversed early losses on Wednesday to close with a small gain going into the holiday weekend. The move is the 15th day of trading within a near-term consolidation range that is fast becoming a bullish-looking flag pattern. If the market breaks out to the upside and confirms this pattern within the next week or so it should rally well into the end of the year. In economic news, the PCE Price Index was released on Wednesday coming in largely as expected. The rub is that ?as expected? included a 0.20% month-to-month increase and the fastest pace of YOY gains for several decades. At this pace, the market should expect the first interest rate hikes to come well before the middle of next year.

Equity markets bounced back strongly on Friday after a turbulent week. The rising threat of inflation was offset, however, by the rising promise of earnings in the 3rd and 4th quarters of the year. Not only did the second-quarter earnings cycle produce much stronger than expected growth but the consensus figures for the back half of the year continue to rise on strength in the retail sector. If this trend continues the S&P 500 should continue to set new all-time highs.The hurdle for the market this week is the PCE Price Index on Friday. The index is expected to show a rise in consumer-level inflation but at a slower pace than the previous month. If the data exceeds expectations like the recently released Producer Price Index the market could be in for a little more turbulence before the next new highs are set.

The correction in equities appears to be over, at least for now. Equity markets fell in the pre-market action on the fallout from Wednesday's FOMC Revelations but Traders and investors were quick to scoop up the bargains. Thursday's action was bolstered by two pieces of better-than-expected economic data as well as a round of much better than expected earnings news from the retail sector. On the economic front, the weekly jobless claims figure and the Index of Leading Indicators were both better than expected. With employment on the mend and economic activity on the rise, S&P 500 earnings could be far better than expected in the second half of the year. Next week is light on the earnings news but comes with a very key economic report, the monthly Personal Income and Spending data to include the Fed's favored measure of consumer inflation the PCE Price Index.

Week Ending April 30th, 2021What an eventful week it was. All the major stock indices touched all-time highs before surrendering their weekly gains on Friday. The major US tech companies produced massive quarterly results this week but the stock price action remained muted as investors are not that confident about the sustainability of this growth pattern in near future.Powell did not make any policy change this week after Fed's meeting but he noted the rising inflation and classified this rising inflation as transitory. I think Fed knows about the chances/probability of transitory inflation becoming persistent inflation but it does not want to create panic right now. Moreover Fed wants to see average inflation of 2% or more before doing something. I do not know if Fed wants to see average inflation staying above 2% on quarterly basis, or half yearly basis.On Thursday, commerce department announced that US GDP expanded at annualized rate of 6.4% in first quarter of 2021. On Friday, it was reported that PCE Price Index, the most important inflation gauge used by FED, rose 0.5% in March while core PCE price index rose by 0.4% on monthly basis. The core rate rose to an annual rate of 1.8% from 1.4% in February this year due to the base effect.As a student of markets, I feel most of the participants are feeling that in last recent expansion, inflation had almost barely touched 2% even after ultra-accommodative policies spanning over most of the expansion, so maybe this time is no different. But this time it's different as I think demand pull as well as cost push factors are both at play right now behind the scene to push inflation in a range above 2%.